Burnham rules out an early election – politicalbetting.com
Burnham rules out an early election – politicalbetting.com
“I’m going to rule it out”Speaking to Laura Kuenssberg in his first major interview as prime minister, Andy Burnham rules out calling an early general election and says “I don't think people want it”#BBCLauraKhttps://t.co/kIb5RbA0VB pic.twitter.com/yMYt8p2UzU
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So, Laura K has done a full interview with Burnham for the BBC, to be broadcast on Panorama and I-player tomorrow. But they are releasing little snippets this morning to whet the appetite. Am I alone in finding this irritating? Either release the full interview now, or don't release anything until it's on tomorrow. It's just clickbait to get some headlines today, but is bound to be selective.
Iran’s New Leader Is More Open to Pursuing a Nuclear Weapon, U.S. Intelligence Says
The previous supreme leader, who was killed early in the war, had renounced nuclear weapons. U.S. spy agencies believe his son is more interested in building a bomb.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/24/us/politics/iran-nuclear-weapon.html?unlocked_article_code=1.0FA.RqJT.VowB43jSpoci&smid=url-share
Wait until after October 28th / First 100 days.
Edit: Or Trump's approach to the Burnham UK.
So I wouldn't 100% rule out 2027 as the sane choice.
Lots of reasons of course but the main one is that no one actually wants one right now. Reform would have a year ago but are on the slide. The Tories are basically nowhere. The greens are fading as their leaders balloon has burst on the twin boobs of failing to obey the law and actual scrutiny. The lib dems have made no impression on moving their vote share despite the government travails.
So no one wants an early election.
Shows just how cynical all those who repeatedly called for them in previous times were.
https://www.theguardian.com/film/2026/jul/23/the-odysssey-music-ludwig-goransson-christopher-nolan
Should have used Steely Dan.
A rather misleading headline IMO. Cant think why the tax avoiding Billionaire owned paper would go with that
The actual figures show
Scotland’s top-rate taxpayers rose 17%, tax collected from them rose £193m to £2.069bn, & total Scottish income-tax receipts rose 9%. The headlined £22m is not a recorded loss—it's one analyst’s estimate that they've punted what a 45p rate 'might' have raised. Hypothesis is not out turn.
And due to avoidance you cannot make a judgement in year one has to be over a longer timescale
"Welcome to our last Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips"
Hurray.
Trevor Phillips is a woeful interviewer. It may be that his replacement is worse but that's hard to imagine, so let’s enjoy this moment.
https://x.com/saulstaniforth/status/2081282559795741041?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
There have been questions around noncompliance, inspections, walking the edges etc, but they have never walked away.
That's only one side of course, Israel being the other.
As Theresa May so beautifully demonstrated, huge poll leads and strong local council results do not a general election majority make.
Labour aren't leading the polls now - the problematic nature of the election campaign makes it a gamble. In any case, why risk a 160-seat majority - if the majority was under 10, I could understand it.
The two previous occasions Labour changed leaders and Prime Ministers while in Government didn't end well which might be an added note of caution.
I think 2028 is a possibility if it's looking positive for Labour - the London Mayoral election might be indicative but that's now a niche contest in itself and dependent on whether Khan wants another go.
Royal Mail colleagues defend suspended worker, with one saying 10 people in his office have been bitten by pets
Postmen have come out in defence of a delivery driver who kicked a blind dog to death.
A Royal Mail worker kicked Ethel, a Shih Tzu, in Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire, last week, causing the pet to suffer organ failure.
The driver was reportedly suspended by Royal Mail – but postal workers have spoken out in defence of his actions.
One postman said: “I kicked a terrier that bit my leg to get it off me, and I would do it again.
“I would say about 10 of us in my office have been bitten. It’s very common, and it’s always the dogs that have ‘never done that before’.
Royal Mail promised to pay Ethel’s family’s vet bills and launched an investigation into the incident.
Eve Lewis, Ethel’s owner, said her dog was partially blind and only had one tooth.
But postal workers said it can be impossible to judge which dogs should be considered a threat, even when dog owners claim their pet is peaceful.
One postman added: “I felt for that dog and the owner but I also felt for the postie.
“If you have been bitten, or been threatened with being bitten, it makes you scared. They come snapping at your ankles and it’s frightening.”
“I’m on his side,” a postman based in the South East said. “If you know the area you can do your best to keep safe – if you don’t then you’re supposed to not take any risks.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/07/25/postmen-back-delivery-driver-who-kicked-blind-dog-to-death/
Thinking about it I'm probably 1 of only 2 people outside the Government who will have figures that could show what is really going on - but given that isn't the reason I have that data I won't go looking...
Nobody cares what someone said about calling an election in the past apart from those with elephantine memories.
Also candidate selection, the other issue that some people are on the Tory candidate list who are also looking to join Reform....
A thought experiment is what happens if the USA makes some of the big tech 4 or 5 suspend their services in Europe. What about Visa and Mastercard?
We need out#r Government to work out our strategy as a country to manage these type of threats. "Can't do nuffink" will not be good enough. And we need to know how it locks in with the areas mentioned above.
I could be wrong, but I think this is perhaps more of a philosophical problem for the Conservatives, who have little history of skepticism about the USA.
We haven't even reached the hottest past of the summer yet.
Not commenting on the particular assertion as I am not knowledgeable.
Who is also a member of the Labour Party who also helped bring down Angela Rayner.
Looking at you, Reform.
Rain was forecast here, but so far we've seen none of it. Nor, it would appear, from the blue sky and whitening clouds, that we're likely to!
A few thoughts, more or less on topic. As usual I agree with Mr S; change of PM means an automatic call from opposition parties for an election. Sometime's it's justified, usually it isn't.
Apart from the fact that Keir Starmer went, via the 11+, to a school which subsequently became fee-paying and Andy Burnham went to a genuine comprehensive, I don't see much difference in their backgrounds. Indeed Andy B went to a more up-market university. (Cambridge vs Leeds). The big difference is in their practical political backgrounds.
I think that suggesting he, or perhaps his Foreign Secretary, will 'call out' Trump if necessary is poking the bear. There'll be a need to call out Trump before long, sure as God made little green apples. Don't get into an argument there before you have to!
Whether they pan out or not is open to question, but unlike Starmer, who appeared too scared of his own shadow to get stuff done, Burnham appears determined to have a serious crack at it.
Talking to some developers in Latvia the other week who did work for Russians, they have had real difficulty in getting paid. Work for them has dried up now. If they wanted paid, they would go to Dubai but the threats from the US through their financial regimes means that it is very difficult now. If the use did the same to European countries, there would be some difficulty,
I suspect it is a weapon that will be used (or threatened) by the US at some time between now and 2028. Or later if Trump 'wins' again.
Thought he could call a by-election to end the media circus over donations
No parties give him succour
Main challenger is a bin, failed attempt to paint the bin as the establishment
Farage continues to one-man-band Reform, giving speeches
Nobody can cover his speeches as he's a by-election candidate
More scandals come out about donations
The only thing people hear about Reform as Burnham takes over are donations scandals
I assume that he will defeat Binface. But he is already defeated politically.
Bet on 2027 and 2028 for the election, after the new PM fails to get anything that looks like reform past his activist MPs who are like herding cats through the lobby?
I wouldn't read much more into it than that, except perhaps Burnham isn't planning an election in 2026.
They did return it, didn't they?
Oh.
'Diane Abbott row: Tory minister says they'd take more cash from donor Frank Hester'
"Soon there WON'T be an election where Labour will increase its majority"?
At the same time, I've looked at the non-US alternatives to various things. Paid for a Proton subscription and have already cancelled its renewal. Compared to Google it is practically unusable.
(* https://taxpolicy.org.uk/2026/07/25/scotland-48p-top-rate-laffer-curve/)
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/191c753f07522bb3
It seems fairly clear. The householder's child opened the front door, and let the dog out which ran at the victim, barking. The victim defended himself, not knowing what would be happening.
An owner is required to keep their dog under control, and prevent it from biting visitors. Everything else is wibble and red herrings. Dog size and the rest mean nothing; ask an angry Jack Russell. A delivery worker has a right not to be attacked.
I'm quite astonished that the dog is being termed the "victim", and I think that perhaps the owner needs to receive an ASBO (or whatever they are called now) or warning to encourage them to run a setup where their dog does not get the opportunity to go for a delivery worker.
I'm pivoting my serious email to a European supplier, and I'll probably keep things at Google for online politics, and where I use this pseudonym etc.
It will be a modestly big exercise.
Terrible fires in Cairngorm and real worry for residents of Nethy Bridge and all those affected across NE Scotland by the drifting smoke
Our son and his family sail to La Rochelle tomorrow on a 15 day France - Spain road trip, which could not have been timed at a worst moment
Our doctor and her family have just returned from France with temperatures around 45 c during their stay
I have to say that even with all the justified attacks on Farage, Tice and Reform they still lead in most polls and seem to be defying gravity
I assume we all expect Burnham's labour to draw ahead and he is wise to rule out a GE and just get on with governing
I do have reservations about his 10% IHT charge on all estates but he has maintained he wants cross party discussions and agreement on the defining moments in our politics and I hope Kemi and the opposition parties do engage positively on the subject
We do not need an early election, whether leaders want it or not
I think on this occasion Burnham is wise not to be anything but form on the date.
The Country is sick and tired of the churn and short termism.
If he goes is 229 he can go with a message of stability and a manifesto for 5 -10 years with hopefully a degree of trust.
Farage I doubt will be the threat he still is, Tories will desperately need to wake up and realise the centre round is where they should be and not hard right where they are being taken. If there is an exodus of Tories it is more likely to be to LD's in strategically plausible incumbent hold deats across the South and Home Counties. Tories who are pro EU and pro renewables.
This approach not only antagonises the US government, but is also likely to lead to the American companies pulling out of Europe completely, at the cost of many high-paying jobs, and daring Europe to block their services.
Streeting "I was clear [to Hegseth] that we've not supported offensive action in Iran"
We're letting the US use our bases to bomb Iran!
If France was allowing another country to use French bases to bomb Britain would we shrug & say oh well or would we see that as an act of war?
This is the calc for calling an election. The first has to (easily) outweigh the second for him to consider going for it.
Right now it doesn't so there's not a chance. But regardless of what he says today as soon as that changes so will his mindset.
So it's a case of watch the polls.
Doubt it. That's a complete waste of money.
It's about helping set a narrative, the problem for the Tories I alluded to in the header is that they need to be seen as the principal opponent's to Labour, not Reform, if they aren't then they get seen as a wasted vote at the next GE.
@HYUFD who is the best one to listen to on the conservative party, though we have our disagreements, has already made this point not least because the conservative party will not re-join the EU and wants to ameliorate the cost of domestic bills by reducing the climate change levies by £200 pa. Also open up the North Sea which seems to be likely now.
The ECHR is a problem across Europe with individual EU countries seeking to exclude immigration from their remit, and even introduce Rwanda style schemes
You have a 'bee in your bonnet' about Kemi but look at her polling and approval rates and note that she and Andy Burnham are the only leaders with positive ratings
The next 12 months will be the Andy v Kemi show, not least because Kemi is the leader of the opposition, and it promises to be interesting
Anyone who's got the Parliamentary Standards Commissioner, the police, National Crime Agency, FCA, and potentially HMRC after them, any one of them would rattle a normal person.
https://youtu.be/Qq_LJ-siMVs
A couple of cases about which I do not have detailed knowledge that came up this weekend.
Ref UK in Bradford have just killed a literally shovel-ready (it would open in 2028) £32m leisure centre project against the recommendation of their own planner, for which most of the funding is external, and the Council has a sunk cost of 5 million on its books.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvg9n3ew6w5o
I also picking up things from friends in Barnsley, which has (I am told) been doing some successful regeneration and been succeeding in attracting visitors - bring in something like £400m per year (AI number) in trade. Ref UK are accused of choking off phase 2 of regeneration by running the Council like a burger van.
i do not think anyone maintains a register, as happens with defenestrated Councillors.
Here's a detailed counter argument, which isn't completely implausible.
(It's also a pretty good analysis of SpaceX without the orbital compute.)
Taking the SpaceX IPO Seriously
https://x.com/almacap114204/status/2064720324294308350?s=46
Regional Mayors have amassive role to play in these areas too.
https://winstonchurchill.hillsdale.edu/european-court-human-rights/
Are you happy for very good people like Street and Davison walk away?
It's one of the things that keeps minor parties minor. Avoiding that fate - relegation from the prem as it were - has to be political priority number one for the Cons. Far more than chasing a win. So long as they can see off Reform they'll be back in power in the not too distant future.
The exact same calculus applied to Labour at the 2019 election. It's why they pivoted their Brexit policy to offering a 2nd Referendum. With that decision (driven by polling) they gave the win to Boris Johnson but took falling to third behind the LDs off the table.
Worked a dream. Secured second place and main opposition status. Five years later - lo - they were back running the country.
We heard all this "Tories still aren't winning in Manchester, Liverpool and Newcastle" stuff under Cameron in the noughties.
That's all they can hope for. Focus on the economy and fiscal credibility, as well as constructive growth-based reform, and focus on 80 seats.
I noticed a rare foray on their website last week , claiming a monster dingy had bought in by far the biggest ever single dinghy load. It failed to mention any numbers in the past 2 months when June and July are usually bumper months.
Now lets not kid ourselves or anyone as the biggest factor Ivealways said under all Governments is the weather.
We may have had a heatwave after heatwave scenario this summer but what wind there has been has tended to be easterly, which is the worst for shipping and the most dangerous.
Calm seas = migrants and sort of easterly or northern swell above 20mph means less migrants and that has fuck all to do with policy and always has!
The longer Reform remain the highest polling party on the right the harder it is going to be to convince their voters that a Reform vote is a "wasted" vote. Labour will have a far easier task convincing Green, Lib Dem, SNP and Plaid voters to vote tactically.
I say that as someone who would far sooner see the Conservatives as the main opposition rather than Reform.
And then goes on to posit hypothetically and tendentiously that Churchill might not like the court as it is today based on a selection of unrelated comments.
The right wing media have decided to kill Reform off completely to help Kemi’s Conservatives, because they absolutely love how proper right wing Kemi’s manifesto now is - and with her purge of “wets” how masterful, er, mistressful, she is in forcing those right wing policies through the commons.
After all, where did Kemi’s manifesto come from, if it wasn’t from being immersed in that same right wing reactionary glib echo chambers way of seeing what the priorities and answers are, this media has created and been indoctrinating its loyal followers with? So you are wrong, yet again the truth is completely the other way around from how you understand politics - you need to learn which way round the egg and chicken came -
They kill Reform to cheerlead for Kemi, because Kemi is cheerleading for them.
On topic. For Burnham’s Populism to work, he may have to go for the early General Election, before the Populist bounce wears off and starts being called out as just more of the same. So I wouldn’t take how he’s currently answering media questions about early GE, as certainty about what actually happens over the next 16 months.
If the ECHR has any sense it will adapt to the new politic and make leaving over immigration unnecessary
A recipe for a summer spritz cocktail overstated the amount of elderflower liqueur by some margin: 35ml was the intended measure, not 235ml (The good mixer, 18 July, Feast, p15).
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2026/jul/24/corrections-and-clarifications
At the end of the day, the right wing media don’t have to go on the floor of the commons and defend it, or go to the country and defend it.
Their love is a fools gold.
As to net zero, most UK politicians don't accept that climate change caused by CO2 is a hoax. SFAICS it isn't even Reform policy as such. I don't think Kemi has said it's all a big lie. The policy of CO2 emissions is all about timing and bilateral movement with other emitters, not about principle.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/07/25/dangerous-third-world-mindset-explains-britain-problems/ (no paywall)