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Andy Burnham: A New Hope? – politicalbetting.com

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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,759
    edited 3:01PM
    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    Nigelb said:

    Andy Burnham will unveil plans next week for adult social care in the first major policy speech of his premiership as he pledges to “face it and fix it”

    The prime minister has pledged to overhaul social care so that it “operates on the NHS principle” and is free at the point of need in a move that is projected to cost £18.5 billion a year

    However, The Times has been told that this “universal” offer is unlikely to cover the “daily living costs” of a care home, such as laundry, food, accommodation and energy bills

    It means home residents could still face bills of tens of thousands of pounds for accommodation costs under proposals for a new National Care Service

    Covering these costs for everybody would add about an extra £16 billion to annual costs, according to estimates based on average care home fees

    Dame Louise Casey, who is leading a commission looking at adult social care in England, is poised to launch a national conversation this month on how it should be paid for

    Burnham is expected to give a speech setting out his vision in London next week

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2080932513829036145

    Prediction - this will never come to fruition.

    Because if it did, it would do for Labour's reputation for the rest of time. Without 'laundry, food, accommodation and energy bills', most people are not going to notice any difference in care costs.

    So its just a death tax for everyone with no benefit.

    If it removes the need to sell your home to pay for residential social care costs and instead just replaces it with a 10% levy on estates that would benefit most estates. Ironically especially in London and the South. Though just the nursing care isn’t enough
    WRT the putative 10% levy on estates, the devil is in some detail. Which estates? At the moment for most people to whom it is relevant there is a disregard for couples of £1million (being 325K x 2 + the main residence allowance of £175K each.)

    If the 10% kicks in at nil, or £200K or something it will bring millions into tax currently outside it. There is also the question of lawful avoidance. It would not be simple.
    I believe Burnham has said he wants to scrap inheritance tax and replace it with the 10% levy. So that would mean all estates over £325k, the current threshold for IHT but with no exemption of the main property from IHT for couples up to £1 million as there would be no 40% IHT to pay, just one 10% rate.

    If Burnham instead said all estates should pay the 10% levy then that would go down like a lead balloon with those with total assets under £325k though it would be hugely popular with those with estates over £1 million and their heirs
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,788

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    AnneJGP said:

    FF43 said:

    Prisons are an expensive way of making bad people worse

    No prisons would be an even more expensive way of making good people much worse.
    I really worry about the ways things seem to be pointing. We can't deport violent foreign criminals; we haven't enough space to imprison all those who should be imprisoned; violent criminals are being let out too early; the push for medically-assisted suicide is being brought back to parliament. I really do worry that all these things will come together and we'll end up with the death penalty again. It isn't unthinkable because Rupert Lowe is already saying it. Proclaiming it, even.
    We deport thousands of foreign criminals every year, and the latest figures were up 36%. Don't believe what you read in the papers about occasional exceptions.
    I realise you've appointed yourself the chief rebutter of anti-PB morale, but calling 10,772 people, 12% of the prison population, 'occasional exceptions' is ludicrous even for you.
    We have a system where foreign offenders are initially imprisoned in the UK, to ensure justice is done, before then being deported. The system is working as planned. Or do you think that foreign offenders shouldn’t do prison time?
    If you're saying that the 12% of the prison population comprising foreign nationals is just a transitory sample of the actual total of those sentenced, what actual percentage of those given a custodial sentence are you saying are foreign nationals? 24%? 48%?
    What? What “transitory sample”? These are not words I have used.
    Lucky hasn't worked out what happens to domestic prisoners at the end of their sentences, apparently.
    If what Bondygoo is saying is that they are being deported, but only when they've served their full sentence (minus reductions) in the UK, that is the logic fail. The whole idea of deporting them in the context of this discussion is that we reduce the prison population and stop paying the equivalent of Eton fees to house them.
    I never said we only deport them after they’ve served their full sentence. Please read what I’ve written. There are various schemes whereby some are deported partway through their sentence when we can be confident they are going to a country that will appropriately imprison them for the remainder of their sentence.

    We could deport many foreign offenders sooner, but the downside of that is that they might get out of prison earlier. Do you think it’s acceptable that someone should get away with a lesser sentence because they are not a UK national? That really would be two-tier justice.
    In my limited experience of this area a further problem with transferring foreign prisoners is what happens to them when they are released. A lot of sex offenders, for example, are subject to extended sentences where they are very carefully monitored on release and restricted in what jobs they can apply for, have notification requirements and restrictions on internet usage. Some countries don't seem to have anything similar with the result that the sentence cannot be properly served in the country they might potentially be deported to. The result is that they are subject to supervision in this country.

    I am not entirely sure that most Judges get that these kinds of conditions, which are entirely appropriate for UK prisoners, might result in a continuing risk to the UK population on release.
    We can't rehabilitate people we don't want in our country otherwise we end up with the weird logic where robbery gets you sent back home but rape allows you to stay in the UK.

    And while I don't particular want robbers to remain in the UK no-one is going to want rapists staying..
    Foreign nationals are not for us to reform or rehabilitate. Any justification for their continued presence is removed by them comitting a severe crime. Their liberty to continue their criminal career in their country of origin isn't our problem either - it is entirely their choice whether they set the person free or continue their detention.
    So, justice for British victims means nothing to you?
    Justice is served by the criminals being deported, never to return. If I had been the victim of violent crime, I would far rather the perptrator be deported back to where they came from than serve a British sentence in a British gaol. I think there are few who would differ.
    Let's consider a more detailed scenario. Someone comes over from Algeria and viciously assaults you. Would you rather, if these were the only choices...

    a) They serve 20 years in a British gaol and are then deported to Algeria; or

    b) They are immediately deported to Algeria, but serve no time or other punishment there.

    I think most people would rather (a), but I've not seen polling on the matter.
    You’d need to point out that (a) carries a cost of more than a million pounds in taxpayers’ money.

    There’s also option (c), which is that Algeria agrees to take their prisoner back and they get to spend two decades in Algerian prison, five men to a room with a bucket in the corner, where it gets damn hot in summer and there’s no air conditioning.
    I'm sure you could phrase a polling question a range of different ways and get a range of different responses. You could also point out that reciprocal agreements mean that we would still be spending taxpayers' money on British people who had offended abroad and were sent back to serve time in the UK. I'd need to see how the figures would work out before being particularly persuaded by that myself.

    If option (c) -- deporting them to their country of origin with guarantees that they will do time -- exists, it seems sensible. However, it frequently does not exist. Some countries are not on good terms with us. Some countries have high levels of corruption. Some countries have very different ideas of what punishments are appropriate.

    We do deport lots of foreign offenders before they have served their full sentence on these terms to countries where we have good agreements.
    Get them on a plane, now. 100% of the time. Do not pass go, do not collect £200. Notify Algeria of what they have done, and pass them to the authorities there. If the Algerians see fit to free them for a life of wine, women and song, that's not our problem. They can't have been enjoying life in Algeria that much, or they wouldn't have come to the UK.

    In the very rare case where a judge feels that public outrage can only be satisfied by a guaranteed minimum custodial sentence, the Home Secretary could be asked to make arrangements with the country of origin to hire space within their justice system.
    I think it very much is our problem if a tourist from country X comes to the UK, commits a terrible crime, and then returns to country X to face no punishment. That is not justice for the victim. I don't think your policy would prove popular with the public. The controversy over the return of Abdelbaset Ali al-Megrahi to Libya demonstrates that.
    A working prison system would be very popular with the public. We cannot afford to house the criminals of the world. For very severe crimes, a prison sentence served abroad would be far tougher than anything meted out by the British justice system.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,794
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Remarkable litotes, TSE.

    ..That said Andy Burnham currently has much better political antennae and communication skills than Gordon Brown.

    I know but then again 29% at the next general election could lead to a Labour landslide.
    If Badenoch went full frontal One Nation Tory, dispensed with all the Reform racism- based rubbish, disposed of all the old- guard scumbags like Michael Green and called the party the New Conservatives she would be on 45%.
    No she wouldn’t as half of those type of voters now vote LD. The Conservatives need to be neither LD2 nor Reform2
    Become One Nation Tories and all your LDs come back home.

    The Tories are already dabbling in Reform 2 narratives.
    Not unless the Tories also promised to rejoin the EEA and ultimately the EU and reverse Brexit, in which case Tories may as well merge into the LDs with the rest joining Reform anyway
    Good afternoon

    Just catching up on the thread it seems all Kemi has to do is adopt Lib Dem policies and she is home and dry

    Kemi is plotting her own course with increasing popularity and support within her own party

    Time will tell but I do expect her to overtake Reform and be the party of the right going into GE29 with policies on the economy, youth and defence

    You are right in your comments @HYUFD
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,794
    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    Nigelb said:

    Andy Burnham will unveil plans next week for adult social care in the first major policy speech of his premiership as he pledges to “face it and fix it”

    The prime minister has pledged to overhaul social care so that it “operates on the NHS principle” and is free at the point of need in a move that is projected to cost £18.5 billion a year

    However, The Times has been told that this “universal” offer is unlikely to cover the “daily living costs” of a care home, such as laundry, food, accommodation and energy bills

    It means home residents could still face bills of tens of thousands of pounds for accommodation costs under proposals for a new National Care Service

    Covering these costs for everybody would add about an extra £16 billion to annual costs, according to estimates based on average care home fees

    Dame Louise Casey, who is leading a commission looking at adult social care in England, is poised to launch a national conversation this month on how it should be paid for

    Burnham is expected to give a speech setting out his vision in London next week

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2080932513829036145

    Prediction - this will never come to fruition.

    Because if it did, it would do for Labour's reputation for the rest of time. Without 'laundry, food, accommodation and energy bills', most people are not going to notice any difference in care costs.

    So its just a death tax for everyone with no benefit.

    If it removes the need to sell your home to pay for residential social care costs and instead just replaces it with a 10% levy on estates that would benefit most estates. Ironically especially in London and the South. Though just the nursing care isn’t enough
    WRT the putative 10% levy on estates, the devil is in some detail. Which estates? At the moment for most people to whom it is relevant there is a disregard for couples of £1million (being 325K x 2 + the main residence allowance of £175K each.)

    If the 10% kicks in at nil, or £200K or something it will bring millions into tax currently outside it. There is also the question of lawful avoidance. It would not be simple.
    I believe Burnham has said he wants to scrap inheritance tax and replace it with the 10% levy. So that would mean all estates over £325k, the current threshold for IHT but with no exemption of the main property from IHT for couples up to £1 million as there would be no 40% IHT to pay, just one 10% rate.

    If Burnham instead said all estates should pay the 10% levy then that would go down like a lead balloon with those with total assets under £325k though it would be hugely popular with those with estates over £1 million and their heirs
    A 10% dementia tax on all estates without allowances would be Burnham's poll tax
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,759

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Remarkable litotes, TSE.

    ..That said Andy Burnham currently has much better political antennae and communication skills than Gordon Brown.

    I know but then again 29% at the next general election could lead to a Labour landslide.
    If Badenoch went full frontal One Nation Tory, dispensed with all the Reform racism- based rubbish, disposed of all the old- guard scumbags like Michael Green and called the party the New Conservatives she would be on 45%.
    No she wouldn’t as half of those type of voters now vote LD. The Conservatives need to be neither LD2 nor Reform2
    Become One Nation Tories and all your LDs come back home.

    The Tories are already dabbling in Reform 2 narratives.
    But they then lose as many in the other direction to Reform.
    I started to respond to this and then I thought if you can't see swimming in the same excrement as Reform and Restore is sub optimal when there are Labour and LD votes to pick off if you tack to the centre, I am wasting my time.
    Stupid argument.

    Cookie is not advocating voting for Reform or Restore. He is merely pointing out that, since many people will do just that, any move by Badenoch towards the centre ground is likely to be, at best, vote neutral. And almost certainly vote negative given the centre ground is already pretty crowded.

    Again, this is not to advocate for a move to the right, or even staying where the Tory party currently lies. Simply pointing out that any move towards the centre is unlikely to improve Tory electoral fortunes.

    This why, in spite of the current evidence, I think the Tory party is fecked.
    I genuinely believe if the Tories entered what is currently a centrist dead zone between where they currently stand and where LD and right wing Labour are to be found they could do well and quickly in the face of an unpopular Government and a pretender in Farage,who these days keeps being found out as an unreliable Trumpian Charlatan.

    This is the ground Churchill, McMillan, Heath, Thatcher, Major and Cameron won upon. It is dare I say it also the narrative of three time winning PM Blair.
    They need to be a centre right, pro Brexit party that is neither LD pro EU or as anti immigration as Reform and Restore
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 8,110
    I’m gutted to see the fires in France. At least two of the towns I stayed in this year, Le Porge and Parentis-en-Born, have been evacuated

    I do hope that the damage is not too severe
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,625

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    AnneJGP said:

    FF43 said:

    Prisons are an expensive way of making bad people worse

    No prisons would be an even more expensive way of making good people much worse.
    I really worry about the ways things seem to be pointing. We can't deport violent foreign criminals; we haven't enough space to imprison all those who should be imprisoned; violent criminals are being let out too early; the push for medically-assisted suicide is being brought back to parliament. I really do worry that all these things will come together and we'll end up with the death penalty again. It isn't unthinkable because Rupert Lowe is already saying it. Proclaiming it, even.
    We deport thousands of foreign criminals every year, and the latest figures were up 36%. Don't believe what you read in the papers about occasional exceptions.
    I realise you've appointed yourself the chief rebutter of anti-PB morale, but calling 10,772 people, 12% of the prison population, 'occasional exceptions' is ludicrous even for you.
    We have a system where foreign offenders are initially imprisoned in the UK, to ensure justice is done, before then being deported. The system is working as planned. Or do you think that foreign offenders shouldn’t do prison time?
    If you're saying that the 12% of the prison population comprising foreign nationals is just a transitory sample of the actual total of those sentenced, what actual percentage of those given a custodial sentence are you saying are foreign nationals? 24%? 48%?
    What? What “transitory sample”? These are not words I have used.
    Lucky hasn't worked out what happens to domestic prisoners at the end of their sentences, apparently.
    If what Bondygoo is saying is that they are being deported, but only when they've served their full sentence (minus reductions) in the UK, that is the logic fail. The whole idea of deporting them in the context of this discussion is that we reduce the prison population and stop paying the equivalent of Eton fees to house them.
    I never said we only deport them after they’ve served their full sentence. Please read what I’ve written. There are various schemes whereby some are deported partway through their sentence when we can be confident they are going to a country that will appropriately imprison them for the remainder of their sentence.

    We could deport many foreign offenders sooner, but the downside of that is that they might get out of prison earlier. Do you think it’s acceptable that someone should get away with a lesser sentence because they are not a UK national? That really would be two-tier justice.
    In my limited experience of this area a further problem with transferring foreign prisoners is what happens to them when they are released. A lot of sex offenders, for example, are subject to extended sentences where they are very carefully monitored on release and restricted in what jobs they can apply for, have notification requirements and restrictions on internet usage. Some countries don't seem to have anything similar with the result that the sentence cannot be properly served in the country they might potentially be deported to. The result is that they are subject to supervision in this country.

    I am not entirely sure that most Judges get that these kinds of conditions, which are entirely appropriate for UK prisoners, might result in a continuing risk to the UK population on release.
    We can't rehabilitate people we don't want in our country otherwise we end up with the weird logic where robbery gets you sent back home but rape allows you to stay in the UK.

    And while I don't particular want robbers to remain in the UK no-one is going to want rapists staying..
    Foreign nationals are not for us to reform or rehabilitate. Any justification for their continued presence is removed by them comitting a severe crime. Their liberty to continue their criminal career in their country of origin isn't our problem either - it is entirely their choice whether they set the person free or continue their detention.
    So, justice for British victims means nothing to you?
    Justice is served by the criminals being deported, never to return. If I had been the victim of violent crime, I would far rather the perptrator be deported back to where they came from than serve a British sentence in a British gaol. I think there are few who would differ.
    Let's consider a more detailed scenario. Someone comes over from Algeria and viciously assaults you. Would you rather, if these were the only choices...

    a) They serve 20 years in a British gaol and are then deported to Algeria; or

    b) They are immediately deported to Algeria, but serve no time or other punishment there.

    I think most people would rather (a), but I've not seen polling on the matter.
    You’d need to point out that (a) carries a cost of more than a million pounds in taxpayers’ money.

    There’s also option (c), which is that Algeria agrees to take their prisoner back and they get to spend two decades in Algerian prison, five men to a room with a bucket in the corner, where it gets damn hot in summer and there’s no air conditioning.
    I'm sure you could phrase a polling question a range of different ways and get a range of different responses. You could also point out that reciprocal agreements mean that we would still be spending taxpayers' money on British people who had offended abroad and were sent back to serve time in the UK. I'd need to see how the figures would work out before being particularly persuaded by that myself.

    If option (c) -- deporting them to their country of origin with guarantees that they will do time -- exists, it seems sensible. However, it frequently does not exist. Some countries are not on good terms with us. Some countries have high levels of corruption. Some countries have very different ideas of what punishments are appropriate.

    We do deport lots of foreign offenders before they have served their full sentence on these terms to countries where we have good agreements.
    Get them on a plane, now. 100% of the time. Do not pass go, do not collect £200. Notify Algeria of what they have done, and pass them to the authorities there. If the Algerians see fit to free them for a life of wine, women and song, that's not our problem. They can't have been enjoying life in Algeria that much, or they wouldn't have come to the UK.

    In the very rare case where a judge feels that public outrage can only be satisfied by a guaranteed minimum custodial sentence, the Home Secretary could be asked to make arrangements with the country of origin to hire space within their justice system.
    I think it very much is our problem if a tourist from country X comes to the UK, commits a terrible crime, and then returns to country X to face no punishment. That is not justice for the victim. I don't think your policy would prove popular with the public. The controversy over the return of Abdelbaset Ali al-Megrahi to Libya demonstrates that.
    Lol. 'Tourist'.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,625

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Remarkable litotes, TSE.

    ..That said Andy Burnham currently has much better political antennae and communication skills than Gordon Brown.

    I know but then again 29% at the next general election could lead to a Labour landslide.
    If Badenoch went full frontal One Nation Tory, dispensed with all the Reform racism- based rubbish, disposed of all the old- guard scumbags like Michael Green and called the party the New Conservatives she would be on 45%.
    No she wouldn’t as half of those type of voters now vote LD. The Conservatives need to be neither LD2 nor Reform2
    Become One Nation Tories and all your LDs come back home.

    The Tories are already dabbling in Reform 2 narratives.
    But they then lose as many in the other direction to Reform.
    I started to respond to this and then I thought if you can't see swimming in the same excrement as Reform and Restore is sub optimal when there are Labour and LD votes to pick off if you tack to the centre, I am wasting my time.
    Stupid argument.

    Cookie is not advocating voting for Reform or Restore. He is merely pointing out that, since many people will do just that, any move by Badenoch towards the centre ground is likely to be, at best, vote neutral. And almost certainly vote negative given the centre ground is already pretty crowded.

    Again, this is not to advocate for a move to the right, or even staying where the Tory party currently lies. Simply pointing out that any move towards the centre is unlikely to improve Tory electoral fortunes.

    This why, in spite of the current evidence, I think the Tory party is fecked.
    I genuinely believe if the Tories entered what is currently a centrist dead zone between where they currently stand and where LD and right wing Labour are to be found they could do well and quickly in the face of an unpopular Government and a pretender in Farage,who these days keeps being found out as an unreliable Trumpian Charlatan.

    This is the ground Churchill, McMillan, Heath, Thatcher, Major and Cameron won upon. It is dare I say it also the narrative of three time winning PM Blair.
    You don't want centrism (better described as North London progressivism) to save the Tories, you want the Tories to save centrism.
    There is something to that, and with a dose of dying Eurocentrism, but both the Conservative Party and centrism dying on their arses in union in the face of Farage would be disappointing.
    Progressive centrism has been our guiding principle for the last 3 to 4 decades. It has resulted in a stagnant economy, a metastising state delivering dysfunctional public services, vast public debt, a society divided into factions and identities, immigration at a level where harmonious assimilation is impossible, a filthy and dangerous public sphere, and a Britain that only 6% of adults would fight for were we to be invaded. Forgive me if I don't share your disappointment at its demise as a political force.
    The Heathite agenda has been shown to have well and truly failed.

    Managed decline doesn't work, because it is more decline than can be managed.

    Going for growth is the only option. Per Capita economic growth,

    Free the city, free the small businesses, take CT and CGT both down to 15%. Exempt businesses under 10 staff from the majority of the employment law passed since Blair.

    See how that economy roars again!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 40,789
    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Remarkable litotes, TSE.

    ..That said Andy Burnham currently has much better political antennae and communication skills than Gordon Brown.

    I know but then again 29% at the next general election could lead to a Labour landslide.
    If Badenoch went full frontal One Nation Tory, dispensed with all the Reform racism- based rubbish, disposed of all the old- guard scumbags like Michael Green and called the party the New Conservatives she would be on 45%.
    No she wouldn’t as half of those type of voters now vote LD. The Conservatives need to be neither LD2 nor Reform2
    Become One Nation Tories and all your LDs come back home.

    The Tories are already dabbling in Reform 2 narratives.
    But they then lose as many in the other direction to Reform.
    I started to respond to this and then I thought if you can't see swimming in the same excrement as Reform and Restore is sub optimal when there are Labour and LD votes to pick off if you tack to the centre, I am wasting my time.
    Stupid argument.

    Cookie is not advocating voting for Reform or Restore. He is merely pointing out that, since many people will do just that, any move by Badenoch towards the centre ground is likely to be, at best, vote neutral. And almost certainly vote negative given the centre ground is already pretty crowded.

    Again, this is not to advocate for a move to the right, or even staying where the Tory party currently lies. Simply pointing out that any move towards the centre is unlikely to improve Tory electoral fortunes.

    This why, in spite of the current evidence, I think the Tory party is fecked.
    I genuinely believe if the Tories entered what is currently a centrist dead zone between where they currently stand and where LD and right wing Labour are to be found they could do well and quickly in the face of an unpopular Government and a pretender in Farage,who these days keeps being found out as an unreliable Trumpian Charlatan.

    This is the ground Churchill, McMillan, Heath, Thatcher, Major and Cameron won upon. It is dare I say it also the narrative of three time winning PM Blair.
    They need to be a centre right, pro Brexit party that is neither LD pro EU or as anti immigration as Reform and Restore
    If they are a pro right, pro Brexit, not quite as racist as Reform and Restore they are the Conservative Party in name alone.

    Now it doesn't bother me one way or another whether a progressive Tory Party survives, but if it doesn't I suspect what comes next would be far worse.
  • eekeek Posts: 34,750
    edited 3:31PM

    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    Nigelb said:

    Andy Burnham will unveil plans next week for adult social care in the first major policy speech of his premiership as he pledges to “face it and fix it”

    The prime minister has pledged to overhaul social care so that it “operates on the NHS principle” and is free at the point of need in a move that is projected to cost £18.5 billion a year

    However, The Times has been told that this “universal” offer is unlikely to cover the “daily living costs” of a care home, such as laundry, food, accommodation and energy bills

    It means home residents could still face bills of tens of thousands of pounds for accommodation costs under proposals for a new National Care Service

    Covering these costs for everybody would add about an extra £16 billion to annual costs, according to estimates based on average care home fees

    Dame Louise Casey, who is leading a commission looking at adult social care in England, is poised to launch a national conversation this month on how it should be paid for

    Burnham is expected to give a speech setting out his vision in London next week

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2080932513829036145

    Prediction - this will never come to fruition.

    Because if it did, it would do for Labour's reputation for the rest of time. Without 'laundry, food, accommodation and energy bills', most people are not going to notice any difference in care costs.

    So its just a death tax for everyone with no benefit.

    If it removes the need to sell your home to pay for residential social care costs and instead just replaces it with a 10% levy on estates that would benefit most estates. Ironically especially in London and the South. Though just the nursing care isn’t enough
    WRT the putative 10% levy on estates, the devil is in some detail. Which estates? At the moment for most people to whom it is relevant there is a disregard for couples of £1million (being 325K x 2 + the main residence allowance of £175K each.)

    If the 10% kicks in at nil, or £200K or something it will bring millions into tax currently outside it. There is also the question of lawful avoidance. It would not be simple.
    I believe Burnham has said he wants to scrap inheritance tax and replace it with the 10% levy. So that would mean all estates over £325k, the current threshold for IHT but with no exemption of the main property from IHT for couples up to £1 million as there would be no 40% IHT to pay, just one 10% rate.

    If Burnham instead said all estates should pay the 10% levy then that would go down like a lead balloon with those with total assets under £325k though it would be hugely popular with those with estates over £1 million and their heirs
    A 10% dementia tax on all estates without allowances would be Burnham's poll tax
    Do you want social care to exist or would you rather watch local councils to fall apart.

    Which is why no-one is going to use that attack because the problem needs to be fixed and we can't kick the can down the road any longer.

    Well we could but that means the only thing our council tax will be used for is social care of people and nothing else..

  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,625
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    Nigelb said:

    Andy Burnham will unveil plans next week for adult social care in the first major policy speech of his premiership as he pledges to “face it and fix it”

    The prime minister has pledged to overhaul social care so that it “operates on the NHS principle” and is free at the point of need in a move that is projected to cost £18.5 billion a year

    However, The Times has been told that this “universal” offer is unlikely to cover the “daily living costs” of a care home, such as laundry, food, accommodation and energy bills

    It means home residents could still face bills of tens of thousands of pounds for accommodation costs under proposals for a new National Care Service

    Covering these costs for everybody would add about an extra £16 billion to annual costs, according to estimates based on average care home fees

    Dame Louise Casey, who is leading a commission looking at adult social care in England, is poised to launch a national conversation this month on how it should be paid for

    Burnham is expected to give a speech setting out his vision in London next week

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2080932513829036145

    Prediction - this will never come to fruition.

    Because if it did, it would do for Labour's reputation for the rest of time. Without 'laundry, food, accommodation and energy bills', most people are not going to notice any difference in care costs.

    So its just a death tax for everyone with no benefit.

    If it removes the need to sell your home to pay for residential social care costs and instead just replaces it with a 10% levy on estates that would benefit most estates. Ironically especially in London and the South. Though just the nursing care isn’t enough
    WRT the putative 10% levy on estates, the devil is in some detail. Which estates? At the moment for most people to whom it is relevant there is a disregard for couples of £1million (being 325K x 2 + the main residence allowance of £175K each.)

    If the 10% kicks in at nil, or £200K or something it will bring millions into tax currently outside it. There is also the question of lawful avoidance. It would not be simple.
    I believe Burnham has said he wants to scrap inheritance tax and replace it with the 10% levy. So that would mean all estates over £325k, the current threshold for IHT but with no exemption of the main property from IHT for couples up to £1 million as there would be no 40% IHT to pay, just one 10% rate.

    If Burnham instead said all estates should pay the 10% levy then that would go down like a lead balloon with those with total assets under £325k though it would be hugely popular with those with estates over £1 million and their heirs
    A 10% dementia tax on all estates without allowances would be Burnham's poll tax
    Do you want social care to exist or would you rather watch local councils to fall apart.

    Which is why no-one is going to use that attack because the problem needs to be fixed and we can't kick the can down the road any longer.

    Well we could but that means the only thing our council tax will be used for is social care of people and nothing else..

    Or we could grow the economy....
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,794

    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Remarkable litotes, TSE.

    ..That said Andy Burnham currently has much better political antennae and communication skills than Gordon Brown.

    I know but then again 29% at the next general election could lead to a Labour landslide.
    If Badenoch went full frontal One Nation Tory, dispensed with all the Reform racism- based rubbish, disposed of all the old- guard scumbags like Michael Green and called the party the New Conservatives she would be on 45%.
    No she wouldn’t as half of those type of voters now vote LD. The Conservatives need to be neither LD2 nor Reform2
    Become One Nation Tories and all your LDs come back home.

    The Tories are already dabbling in Reform 2 narratives.
    But they then lose as many in the other direction to Reform.
    I started to respond to this and then I thought if you can't see swimming in the same excrement as Reform and Restore is sub optimal when there are Labour and LD votes to pick off if you tack to the centre, I am wasting my time.
    Stupid argument.

    Cookie is not advocating voting for Reform or Restore. He is merely pointing out that, since many people will do just that, any move by Badenoch towards the centre ground is likely to be, at best, vote neutral. And almost certainly vote negative given the centre ground is already pretty crowded.

    Again, this is not to advocate for a move to the right, or even staying where the Tory party currently lies. Simply pointing out that any move towards the centre is unlikely to improve Tory electoral fortunes.

    This why, in spite of the current evidence, I think the Tory party is fecked.
    I genuinely believe if the Tories entered what is currently a centrist dead zone between where they currently stand and where LD and right wing Labour are to be found they could do well and quickly in the face of an unpopular Government and a pretender in Farage,who these days keeps being found out as an unreliable Trumpian Charlatan.

    This is the ground Churchill, McMillan, Heath, Thatcher, Major and Cameron won upon. It is dare I say it also the narrative of three time winning PM Blair.
    They need to be a centre right, pro Brexit party that is neither LD pro EU or as anti immigration as Reform and Restore
    If they are a pro right, pro Brexit, not quite as racist as Reform and Restore they are the Conservative Party in name alone.

    Now it doesn't bother me one way or another whether a progressive Tory Party survives, but if it doesn't I suspect what comes next would be far worse.
    They are a new conservative party with a popular leader

    As I said time will tell
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 29,599

    Mortimer said:

    Nigelb said:

    Mortimer said:

    Sandpit said:

    AnneJGP said:

    FF43 said:

    Prisons are an expensive way of making bad people worse

    No prisons would be an even more expensive way of making good people much worse.
    I really worry about the ways things seem to be pointing. We can't deport violent foreign criminals; we haven't enough space to imprison all those who should be imprisoned; violent criminals are being let out too early; the push for medically-assisted suicide is being brought back to parliament. I really do worry that all these things will come together and we'll end up with the death penalty again. It isn't unthinkable because Rupert Lowe is already saying it. Proclaiming it, even.
    We deport thousands of foreign criminals every year, and the latest figures were up 36%. Don't believe what you read in the papers about occasional exceptions.
    I realise you've appointed yourself the chief rebutter of anti-PB morale, but calling 10,772 people, 12% of the prison population, 'occasional exceptions' is ludicrous even for you.
    We have a system where foreign offenders are initially imprisoned in the UK, to ensure justice is done, before then being deported. The system is working as planned. Or do you think that foreign offenders shouldn’t do prison time?
    If you're saying that the 12% of the prison population comprising foreign nationals is just a transitory sample of the actual total of those sentenced, what actual percentage of those given a custodial sentence are you saying are foreign nationals? 24%? 48%?
    As was discussed on here earlier in the week, it should be relatively straightforward to arrange for most foreigners to be deported to their country of origin to serve the majority of their sentences.

    The stick being tourist visas and aid payments. Start with the countries with most prisoners in the UK, and work down the list.
    Its ok though - because the centristdadsofpb seem to think the current situation is absolutely fine.....
    If it were that easy, don't you think one of the half dozen previous Tory PMs would have had a crack at it ?
    Or were they deliberately setting up a problem for the next Labour government ?
    The public have consistently voted for lower immigration for several decades. Politicians have ignored them. Is there any wonder the faith in the system is so low?
    Politicians had ignored them. (Specifically, the Conservative Party politicians who were in power.) Politicians now aren’t ignoring them. Immigration is massively lower. UK net immigration has fallen 82% compared to its peak.

    There are few things that the public want that have been so comprehensively delivered! Imagine if we could get a 82% fall in NHS waiting lists, or in robbery rates, or in the welfare bill.
    Its down 82% from peak to trough, however it is at a comparable level to many years in the past and higher than it was in 2008 for instance.

    Inflation coming down does not lower prices and in fact means they are still going up.

    For anyone concerned with this, migration returning to what it was in the past when people were already concerned is not a huge triumph, let alone reverse the effects they were concerned about.
    I think you have your figures wrong. The latest net immigration figures are lower than they were in 2008. You have to go back further than that.

    The UK public were voting for New Labour and a looser immigration policy for many years. Mortimer was talking about what the people voted for. I don’t think the majority were voting for lower immigration before 2010.
    Not sure what data you have but the data I looked at was 171,000 year to Dec 2025, the most recent data. 161,000 in 2008 is lower than that.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/longterminternationalmigrationprovisional/latest

    However if you want to discuss what people voted for then Boris gave no such pledge but Cameron and May both said "tens of thousands". Tens of thousands is the range 10,000 < x < 100,000

    171,000 is not in that range. In fact it is 17x the lower bound of that range, more than 3.4x the middle of the range and 71% higher than the upper bound.

    So your smug "people have been given what they asked for" does not match reality.
    Figure 2 of https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/long-term-international-migration-flows-to-and-from-the-uk/ gives a higher figure for 2008. Is this about which method is used?

    Mortimer said, "The public have consistently voted for lower immigration for several decades." I pointed out that the public have been given lower immigration. If Mortimer had said, "The public have consistently voted for immigration in the tens of thousands," I would not have replied or replied differently. I was just responding to the words that were written.

    “When I use a word,’ Humpty Dumpty said in rather a scornful tone, ‘it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less.’

    ’The question is,’ said Alice, ‘whether you can make words mean so many different things.’

    ’The question is,’ said Humpty Dumpty, ‘which is to be master — that’s all.”
    So you accept that it has not been lowered to what people voted for (which under Cameron and May at least was an explicit, defined interval) but you still insist it has been accomplished anyway and wonder why those who voted that way aren't satisfied?

    I suspect voters care about what they mean, and not what you are trying to twist it into.
    I was responding to Mortimer's comment. I was not responding to some hypothetical comment that was not made.

    If some people want immigration to be even lower, then (as I said before) they can at least be pleased that we are moving rapidly in the direction they want, even if we're not there yet.
    You were not just responding to Mortimer's comments, you have made multiple such "mission accomplished" style comments in this thread.

    "There are few things that the public want that have been so comprehensively delivered!"

    "Those who want lower immigration have been given it."

    "Lowering" it to a rate that is still almost double the upper bound proposed is hardly comprehensively delivering anything at all.

    That's like saying the public should be grateful that inflation has fallen to 4% when it is still above target and prices are still going up and high.
    Those comments were all in response to Mortimer's comment about the public voting for lower immigration. The public has been given much lower immigration.

    If you go back five Prime Ministers, then, yes, May and Cameron before her made more specific promises on immigration. If you want to talk about those pledges, OK, let's humour you. It seems a long time ago to me, but I guess it's more recent than the other discussion about what the LibDems did in 2008!

    Out of three general elections, between them, Cameron and May only achieved an overall majority once (2015, versus 2010 and 2017), so is it accurate to say the public consistently voted for their positions? The public were somewhat split on them and presumably their manifestos, it seems to me.

    Leaving that aside, did Cameron and May deliver on their pledges? No, not remotely.

    Has the Starmer and now Burnham government delivered on the pledges Cameron and May made? No. They're getting a lot closer than previous administrations, but, sure, they've not delivered net immigration in the tens of thousands.
    No, Cameron and May did not deliver (which was I believe part of Mortimer's point, but nor yet has Starmer or anyone else.

    The context for discussions of lower has long been "tens of thousands" and it is not remotely that yet.

    They've not been given much lower migration, they have given marginally lower migration.

    You could argue that it is closer now than it was under Cameron or May but instead you want to overegg the pudding by claiming it is comprehensively delivered.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,794
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    Nigelb said:

    Andy Burnham will unveil plans next week for adult social care in the first major policy speech of his premiership as he pledges to “face it and fix it”

    The prime minister has pledged to overhaul social care so that it “operates on the NHS principle” and is free at the point of need in a move that is projected to cost £18.5 billion a year

    However, The Times has been told that this “universal” offer is unlikely to cover the “daily living costs” of a care home, such as laundry, food, accommodation and energy bills

    It means home residents could still face bills of tens of thousands of pounds for accommodation costs under proposals for a new National Care Service

    Covering these costs for everybody would add about an extra £16 billion to annual costs, according to estimates based on average care home fees

    Dame Louise Casey, who is leading a commission looking at adult social care in England, is poised to launch a national conversation this month on how it should be paid for

    Burnham is expected to give a speech setting out his vision in London next week

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2080932513829036145

    Prediction - this will never come to fruition.

    Because if it did, it would do for Labour's reputation for the rest of time. Without 'laundry, food, accommodation and energy bills', most people are not going to notice any difference in care costs.

    So its just a death tax for everyone with no benefit.

    If it removes the need to sell your home to pay for residential social care costs and instead just replaces it with a 10% levy on estates that would benefit most estates. Ironically especially in London and the South. Though just the nursing care isn’t enough
    WRT the putative 10% levy on estates, the devil is in some detail. Which estates? At the moment for most people to whom it is relevant there is a disregard for couples of £1million (being 325K x 2 + the main residence allowance of £175K each.)

    If the 10% kicks in at nil, or £200K or something it will bring millions into tax currently outside it. There is also the question of lawful avoidance. It would not be simple.
    I believe Burnham has said he wants to scrap inheritance tax and replace it with the 10% levy. So that would mean all estates over £325k, the current threshold for IHT but with no exemption of the main property from IHT for couples up to £1 million as there would be no 40% IHT to pay, just one 10% rate.

    If Burnham instead said all estates should pay the 10% levy then that would go down like a lead balloon with those with total assets under £325k though it would be hugely popular with those with estates over £1 million and their heirs
    A 10% dementia tax on all estates without allowances would be Burnham's poll tax
    Do you want social care to exist or would you rather watch local councils to fall apart.

    Which is why no-one is going to use that attack because the problem needs to be fixed and we can't kick the can down the road any longer.

    Well we could but that means the only thing our council tax will be used for is social care of people and nothing else..

    You think no one will object to a 10% dementia tax when their estate is free of tax within the present regime ?

    I expect the children of the elderly will not be impressed
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,759

    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Remarkable litotes, TSE.

    ..That said Andy Burnham currently has much better political antennae and communication skills than Gordon Brown.

    I know but then again 29% at the next general election could lead to a Labour landslide.
    If Badenoch went full frontal One Nation Tory, dispensed with all the Reform racism- based rubbish, disposed of all the old- guard scumbags like Michael Green and called the party the New Conservatives she would be on 45%.
    No she wouldn’t as half of those type of voters now vote LD. The Conservatives need to be neither LD2 nor Reform2
    Become One Nation Tories and all your LDs come back home.

    The Tories are already dabbling in Reform 2 narratives.
    But they then lose as many in the other direction to Reform.
    I started to respond to this and then I thought if you can't see swimming in the same excrement as Reform and Restore is sub optimal when there are Labour and LD votes to pick off if you tack to the centre, I am wasting my time.
    Stupid argument.

    Cookie is not advocating voting for Reform or Restore. He is merely pointing out that, since many people will do just that, any move by Badenoch towards the centre ground is likely to be, at best, vote neutral. And almost certainly vote negative given the centre ground is already pretty crowded.

    Again, this is not to advocate for a move to the right, or even staying where the Tory party currently lies. Simply pointing out that any move towards the centre is unlikely to improve Tory electoral fortunes.

    This why, in spite of the current evidence, I think the Tory party is fecked.
    I genuinely believe if the Tories entered what is currently a centrist dead zone between where they currently stand and where LD and right wing Labour are to be found they could do well and quickly in the face of an unpopular Government and a pretender in Farage,who these days keeps being found out as an unreliable Trumpian Charlatan.

    This is the ground Churchill, McMillan, Heath, Thatcher, Major and Cameron won upon. It is dare I say it also the narrative of three time winning PM Blair.
    They need to be a centre right, pro Brexit party that is neither LD pro EU or as anti immigration as Reform and Restore
    If they are a pro right, pro Brexit, not quite as racist as Reform and Restore they are the Conservative Party in name alone.

    Now it doesn't bother me one way or another whether a progressive Tory Party survives, but if it doesn't I suspect what comes next would be far worse.
    No they are the Conservative party, still distinct from Labour, the Greens, the LDs, Reform and Restore
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,759
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    Nigelb said:

    Andy Burnham will unveil plans next week for adult social care in the first major policy speech of his premiership as he pledges to “face it and fix it”

    The prime minister has pledged to overhaul social care so that it “operates on the NHS principle” and is free at the point of need in a move that is projected to cost £18.5 billion a year

    However, The Times has been told that this “universal” offer is unlikely to cover the “daily living costs” of a care home, such as laundry, food, accommodation and energy bills

    It means home residents could still face bills of tens of thousands of pounds for accommodation costs under proposals for a new National Care Service

    Covering these costs for everybody would add about an extra £16 billion to annual costs, according to estimates based on average care home fees

    Dame Louise Casey, who is leading a commission looking at adult social care in England, is poised to launch a national conversation this month on how it should be paid for

    Burnham is expected to give a speech setting out his vision in London next week

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2080932513829036145

    Prediction - this will never come to fruition.

    Because if it did, it would do for Labour's reputation for the rest of time. Without 'laundry, food, accommodation and energy bills', most people are not going to notice any difference in care costs.

    So its just a death tax for everyone with no benefit.

    If it removes the need to sell your home to pay for residential social care costs and instead just replaces it with a 10% levy on estates that would benefit most estates. Ironically especially in London and the South. Though just the nursing care isn’t enough
    WRT the putative 10% levy on estates, the devil is in some detail. Which estates? At the moment for most people to whom it is relevant there is a disregard for couples of £1million (being 325K x 2 + the main residence allowance of £175K each.)

    If the 10% kicks in at nil, or £200K or something it will bring millions into tax currently outside it. There is also the question of lawful avoidance. It would not be simple.
    I believe Burnham has said he wants to scrap inheritance tax and replace it with the 10% levy. So that would mean all estates over £325k, the current threshold for IHT but with no exemption of the main property from IHT for couples up to £1 million as there would be no 40% IHT to pay, just one 10% rate.

    If Burnham instead said all estates should pay the 10% levy then that would go down like a lead balloon with those with total assets under £325k though it would be hugely popular with those with estates over £1 million and their heirs
    A 10% dementia tax on all estates without allowances would be Burnham's poll tax
    Do you want social care to exist or would you rather watch local councils to fall apart.

    Which is why no-one is going to use that attack because the problem needs to be fixed and we can't kick the can down the road any longer.

    Well we could but that means the only thing our council tax will be used for is social care of people and nothing else..

    We could use insurance to fund social care like Japan

  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 29,599

    carnforth said:

    Mortimer said:

    Nigelb said:

    Mortimer said:

    Sandpit said:

    AnneJGP said:

    FF43 said:

    Prisons are an expensive way of making bad people worse

    No prisons would be an even more expensive way of making good people much worse.
    I really worry about the ways things seem to be pointing. We can't deport violent foreign criminals; we haven't enough space to imprison all those who should be imprisoned; violent criminals are being let out too early; the push for medically-assisted suicide is being brought back to parliament. I really do worry that all these things will come together and we'll end up with the death penalty again. It isn't unthinkable because Rupert Lowe is already saying it. Proclaiming it, even.
    We deport thousands of foreign criminals every year, and the latest figures were up 36%. Don't believe what you read in the papers about occasional exceptions.
    I realise you've appointed yourself the chief rebutter of anti-PB morale, but calling 10,772 people, 12% of the prison population, 'occasional exceptions' is ludicrous even for you.
    We have a system where foreign offenders are initially imprisoned in the UK, to ensure justice is done, before then being deported. The system is working as planned. Or do you think that foreign offenders shouldn’t do prison time?
    If you're saying that the 12% of the prison population comprising foreign nationals is just a transitory sample of the actual total of those sentenced, what actual percentage of those given a custodial sentence are you saying are foreign nationals? 24%? 48%?
    As was discussed on here earlier in the week, it should be relatively straightforward to arrange for most foreigners to be deported to their country of origin to serve the majority of their sentences.

    The stick being tourist visas and aid payments. Start with the countries with most prisoners in the UK, and work down the list.
    Its ok though - because the centristdadsofpb seem to think the current situation is absolutely fine.....
    If it were that easy, don't you think one of the half dozen previous Tory PMs would have had a crack at it ?
    Or were they deliberately setting up a problem for the next Labour government ?
    The public have consistently voted for lower immigration for several decades. Politicians have ignored them. Is there any wonder the faith in the system is so low?
    Politicians had ignored them. (Specifically, the Conservative Party politicians who were in power.) Politicians now aren’t ignoring them. Immigration is massively lower. UK net immigration has fallen 82% compared to its peak.

    There are few things that the public want that have been so comprehensively delivered! Imagine if we could get a 82% fall in NHS waiting lists, or in robbery rates, or in the welfare bill.
    They wanted an 82% fall from the current levels, not the boriswave levels. They see through your 'peak'.
    What baseline would you like? If we go back two decades, net immigration was about 550k p.a. It was stable at that level for several years and voters at the time weren’t voting much for parties promising lower figures. Net immigration is down 69% from that. Not quite as impressive as 82%, but still very impressive. A 69% change on most government indices would be fantastic.

    Mortimer said the public have voted for lower immigration. They have undoubtedly been given lower immigration. OK, maybe they want even lower immigration, but we’re still going in the right direction for them. You can fiddle around with the baseline, but however you look at it, the number is going down.
    If we go back two decades the figure was 265,000 not 550,000

    You seem to be confusing gross with net figures.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/methodologies/internationalmigrationmethodology/qualityoflongterminternationalmigrationestimatesfrom2001to2011tcm77359622.pdf
  • kjhkjh Posts: 13,637

    I’m gutted to see the fires in France. At least two of the towns I stayed in this year, Le Porge and Parentis-en-Born, have been evacuated

    I do hope that the damage is not too severe

    Ditto. On my cycle ride from Bordeaux to Biarritz a few years ago I crossed from the peninsula to Arcachon on the ferry. The ferry pier had some dramatic shots last night on the news. I also stayed in Biscarrosse which I believe has been evacuated. The extent of the pine forest here is huge. When cycling through it you felt like there was not another human being for miles and miles (there probably wasn't). It was stunning. What a shame.

    Also worth mentioning the Dunes of Pilat here are amazing. It is difficult to believe such a magnificent sight is not more well known. The tallest dunes in Europe. Like mountains when you are at the bottom of them.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 13,637

    I’m gutted to see the fires in France. At least two of the towns I stayed in this year, Le Porge and Parentis-en-Born, have been evacuated

    I do hope that the damage is not too severe

    Ditto. On my cycle ride from Bordeaux to Biarritz a few years ago I crossed from the peninsula to Arcachon on the ferry. The ferry pier had some dramatic shots last night on the news. I also stayed in Biscarrosse which I believe has been evacuated. The extent of the pine forest here is huge. When cycling through it you felt like there was not another human being for miles and miles (there probably wasn't). It was stunning. What a shame.

    Also worth mentioning the Dunes of Pilat here are amazing. It is difficult to believe such a magnificent sight is not more well known. The tallest dunes in Europe. Like mountains when you are at the bottom of them.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 91,161

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    Nigelb said:

    Andy Burnham will unveil plans next week for adult social care in the first major policy speech of his premiership as he pledges to “face it and fix it”

    The prime minister has pledged to overhaul social care so that it “operates on the NHS principle” and is free at the point of need in a move that is projected to cost £18.5 billion a year

    However, The Times has been told that this “universal” offer is unlikely to cover the “daily living costs” of a care home, such as laundry, food, accommodation and energy bills

    It means home residents could still face bills of tens of thousands of pounds for accommodation costs under proposals for a new National Care Service

    Covering these costs for everybody would add about an extra £16 billion to annual costs, according to estimates based on average care home fees

    Dame Louise Casey, who is leading a commission looking at adult social care in England, is poised to launch a national conversation this month on how it should be paid for

    Burnham is expected to give a speech setting out his vision in London next week

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2080932513829036145

    Prediction - this will never come to fruition.

    Because if it did, it would do for Labour's reputation for the rest of time. Without 'laundry, food, accommodation and energy bills', most people are not going to notice any difference in care costs.

    So its just a death tax for everyone with no benefit.

    If it removes the need to sell your home to pay for residential social care costs and instead just replaces it with a 10% levy on estates that would benefit most estates. Ironically especially in London and the South. Though just the nursing care isn’t enough
    WRT the putative 10% levy on estates, the devil is in some detail. Which estates? At the moment for most people to whom it is relevant there is a disregard for couples of £1million (being 325K x 2 + the main residence allowance of £175K each.)

    If the 10% kicks in at nil, or £200K or something it will bring millions into tax currently outside it. There is also the question of lawful avoidance. It would not be simple.
    I believe Burnham has said he wants to scrap inheritance tax and replace it with the 10% levy. So that would mean all estates over £325k, the current threshold for IHT but with no exemption of the main property from IHT for couples up to £1 million as there would be no 40% IHT to pay, just one 10% rate.

    If Burnham instead said all estates should pay the 10% levy then that would go down like a lead balloon with those with total assets under £325k though it would be hugely popular with those with estates over £1 million and their heirs
    A 10% dementia tax on all estates without allowances would be Burnham's poll tax
    Do you want social care to exist or would you rather watch local councils to fall apart.

    Which is why no-one is going to use that attack because the problem needs to be fixed and we can't kick the can down the road any longer.

    Well we could but that means the only thing our council tax will be used for is social care of people and nothing else..

    You think no one will object to a 10% dementia tax when their estate is free of tax within the present regime ?

    I expect the children of the elderly will not be impressed
    I expect the children of the elderly in care might well be.

    "Burnham's poll tax" is lazy nonsense.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 62,707

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    Nigelb said:

    Andy Burnham will unveil plans next week for adult social care in the first major policy speech of his premiership as he pledges to “face it and fix it”

    The prime minister has pledged to overhaul social care so that it “operates on the NHS principle” and is free at the point of need in a move that is projected to cost £18.5 billion a year

    However, The Times has been told that this “universal” offer is unlikely to cover the “daily living costs” of a care home, such as laundry, food, accommodation and energy bills

    It means home residents could still face bills of tens of thousands of pounds for accommodation costs under proposals for a new National Care Service

    Covering these costs for everybody would add about an extra £16 billion to annual costs, according to estimates based on average care home fees

    Dame Louise Casey, who is leading a commission looking at adult social care in England, is poised to launch a national conversation this month on how it should be paid for

    Burnham is expected to give a speech setting out his vision in London next week

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2080932513829036145

    Prediction - this will never come to fruition.

    Because if it did, it would do for Labour's reputation for the rest of time. Without 'laundry, food, accommodation and energy bills', most people are not going to notice any difference in care costs.

    So its just a death tax for everyone with no benefit.

    If it removes the need to sell your home to pay for residential social care costs and instead just replaces it with a 10% levy on estates that would benefit most estates. Ironically especially in London and the South. Though just the nursing care isn’t enough
    WRT the putative 10% levy on estates, the devil is in some detail. Which estates? At the moment for most people to whom it is relevant there is a disregard for couples of £1million (being 325K x 2 + the main residence allowance of £175K each.)

    If the 10% kicks in at nil, or £200K or something it will bring millions into tax currently outside it. There is also the question of lawful avoidance. It would not be simple.
    I believe Burnham has said he wants to scrap inheritance tax and replace it with the 10% levy. So that would mean all estates over £325k, the current threshold for IHT but with no exemption of the main property from IHT for couples up to £1 million as there would be no 40% IHT to pay, just one 10% rate.

    If Burnham instead said all estates should pay the 10% levy then that would go down like a lead balloon with those with total assets under £325k though it would be hugely popular with those with estates over £1 million and their heirs
    A 10% dementia tax on all estates without allowances would be Burnham's poll tax
    Do you want social care to exist or would you rather watch local councils to fall apart.

    Which is why no-one is going to use that attack because the problem needs to be fixed and we can't kick the can down the road any longer.

    Well we could but that means the only thing our council tax will be used for is social care of people and nothing else..

    You think no one will object to a 10% dementia tax when their estate is free of tax within the present regime ?

    I expect the children of the elderly will not be impressed
    Need to see what the numbers look like, but I’d at least give Burnham credit for trying what several PMs have kicked down the road for reasons of political unpopularity.

    I’d probably prefer some sort of insurance system, but the current system is very much broken and causing huge problems for local councils.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,794
    edited 3:57PM
    Nigelb said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    Nigelb said:

    Andy Burnham will unveil plans next week for adult social care in the first major policy speech of his premiership as he pledges to “face it and fix it”

    The prime minister has pledged to overhaul social care so that it “operates on the NHS principle” and is free at the point of need in a move that is projected to cost £18.5 billion a year

    However, The Times has been told that this “universal” offer is unlikely to cover the “daily living costs” of a care home, such as laundry, food, accommodation and energy bills

    It means home residents could still face bills of tens of thousands of pounds for accommodation costs under proposals for a new National Care Service

    Covering these costs for everybody would add about an extra £16 billion to annual costs, according to estimates based on average care home fees

    Dame Louise Casey, who is leading a commission looking at adult social care in England, is poised to launch a national conversation this month on how it should be paid for

    Burnham is expected to give a speech setting out his vision in London next week

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2080932513829036145

    Prediction - this will never come to fruition.

    Because if it did, it would do for Labour's reputation for the rest of time. Without 'laundry, food, accommodation and energy bills', most people are not going to notice any difference in care costs.

    So its just a death tax for everyone with no benefit.

    If it removes the need to sell your home to pay for residential social care costs and instead just replaces it with a 10% levy on estates that would benefit most estates. Ironically especially in London and the South. Though just the nursing care isn’t enough
    WRT the putative 10% levy on estates, the devil is in some detail. Which estates? At the moment for most people to whom it is relevant there is a disregard for couples of £1million (being 325K x 2 + the main residence allowance of £175K each.)

    If the 10% kicks in at nil, or £200K or something it will bring millions into tax currently outside it. There is also the question of lawful avoidance. It would not be simple.
    I believe Burnham has said he wants to scrap inheritance tax and replace it with the 10% levy. So that would mean all estates over £325k, the current threshold for IHT but with no exemption of the main property from IHT for couples up to £1 million as there would be no 40% IHT to pay, just one 10% rate.

    If Burnham instead said all estates should pay the 10% levy then that would go down like a lead balloon with those with total assets under £325k though it would be hugely popular with those with estates over £1 million and their heirs
    A 10% dementia tax on all estates without allowances would be Burnham's poll tax
    Do you want social care to exist or would you rather watch local councils to fall apart.

    Which is why no-one is going to use that attack because the problem needs to be fixed and we can't kick the can down the road any longer.

    Well we could but that means the only thing our council tax will be used for is social care of people and nothing else..

    You think no one will object to a 10% dementia tax when their estate is free of tax within the present regime ?

    I expect the children of the elderly will not be impressed
    I expect the children of the elderly in care might well be.

    "Burnham's poll tax" is lazy nonsense.
    The best way is some form of insurance scheme

    If Burnham keeps the present allowances then he may have a point but everyone paying 10% IHT will include those who do not own property
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 8,459

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    Nigelb said:

    Andy Burnham will unveil plans next week for adult social care in the first major policy speech of his premiership as he pledges to “face it and fix it”

    The prime minister has pledged to overhaul social care so that it “operates on the NHS principle” and is free at the point of need in a move that is projected to cost £18.5 billion a year

    However, The Times has been told that this “universal” offer is unlikely to cover the “daily living costs” of a care home, such as laundry, food, accommodation and energy bills

    It means home residents could still face bills of tens of thousands of pounds for accommodation costs under proposals for a new National Care Service

    Covering these costs for everybody would add about an extra £16 billion to annual costs, according to estimates based on average care home fees

    Dame Louise Casey, who is leading a commission looking at adult social care in England, is poised to launch a national conversation this month on how it should be paid for

    Burnham is expected to give a speech setting out his vision in London next week

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2080932513829036145

    Prediction - this will never come to fruition.

    Because if it did, it would do for Labour's reputation for the rest of time. Without 'laundry, food, accommodation and energy bills', most people are not going to notice any difference in care costs.

    So its just a death tax for everyone with no benefit.

    If it removes the need to sell your home to pay for residential social care costs and instead just replaces it with a 10% levy on estates that would benefit most estates. Ironically especially in London and the South. Though just the nursing care isn’t enough
    WRT the putative 10% levy on estates, the devil is in some detail. Which estates? At the moment for most people to whom it is relevant there is a disregard for couples of £1million (being 325K x 2 + the main residence allowance of £175K each.)

    If the 10% kicks in at nil, or £200K or something it will bring millions into tax currently outside it. There is also the question of lawful avoidance. It would not be simple.
    I believe Burnham has said he wants to scrap inheritance tax and replace it with the 10% levy. So that would mean all estates over £325k, the current threshold for IHT but with no exemption of the main property from IHT for couples up to £1 million as there would be no 40% IHT to pay, just one 10% rate.

    If Burnham instead said all estates should pay the 10% levy then that would go down like a lead balloon with those with total assets under £325k though it would be hugely popular with those with estates over £1 million and their heirs
    A 10% dementia tax on all estates without allowances would be Burnham's poll tax
    Do you want social care to exist or would you rather watch local councils to fall apart.

    Which is why no-one is going to use that attack because the problem needs to be fixed and we can't kick the can down the road any longer.

    Well we could but that means the only thing our council tax will be used for is social care of people and nothing else..

    You think no one will object to a 10% dementia tax when their estate is free of tax within the present regime ?

    I expect the children of the elderly will not be impressed
    The children of the elderly are in their 60s and mostly don't need the money. And maybe they face having the value of parent's house being swallowed up in care home fees. Could be a good option.

    Anyway, we have to stop being scared to raise tax to pay for the state we appear to want to live in.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 92,564
    Another more than half empty stadium in the Hundred. No wonder I am constantly getting spammed with promo emails.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 62,707

    Another more than half empty stadium in the Hundred. No wonder I am constantly getting spammed with promo emails.

    I think they sold the tix for £10 to get the crowds in? Or was that only the first couple of years?
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 8,459

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    Nigelb said:

    Andy Burnham will unveil plans next week for adult social care in the first major policy speech of his premiership as he pledges to “face it and fix it”

    The prime minister has pledged to overhaul social care so that it “operates on the NHS principle” and is free at the point of need in a move that is projected to cost £18.5 billion a year

    However, The Times has been told that this “universal” offer is unlikely to cover the “daily living costs” of a care home, such as laundry, food, accommodation and energy bills

    It means home residents could still face bills of tens of thousands of pounds for accommodation costs under proposals for a new National Care Service

    Covering these costs for everybody would add about an extra £16 billion to annual costs, according to estimates based on average care home fees

    Dame Louise Casey, who is leading a commission looking at adult social care in England, is poised to launch a national conversation this month on how it should be paid for

    Burnham is expected to give a speech setting out his vision in London next week

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2080932513829036145

    Prediction - this will never come to fruition.

    Because if it did, it would do for Labour's reputation for the rest of time. Without 'laundry, food, accommodation and energy bills', most people are not going to notice any difference in care costs.

    So its just a death tax for everyone with no benefit.

    If it removes the need to sell your home to pay for residential social care costs and instead just replaces it with a 10% levy on estates that would benefit most estates. Ironically especially in London and the South. Though just the nursing care isn’t enough
    WRT the putative 10% levy on estates, the devil is in some detail. Which estates? At the moment for most people to whom it is relevant there is a disregard for couples of £1million (being 325K x 2 + the main residence allowance of £175K each.)

    If the 10% kicks in at nil, or £200K or something it will bring millions into tax currently outside it. There is also the question of lawful avoidance. It would not be simple.
    I believe Burnham has said he wants to scrap inheritance tax and replace it with the 10% levy. So that would mean all estates over £325k, the current threshold for IHT but with no exemption of the main property from IHT for couples up to £1 million as there would be no 40% IHT to pay, just one 10% rate.

    If Burnham instead said all estates should pay the 10% levy then that would go down like a lead balloon with those with total assets under £325k though it would be hugely popular with those with estates over £1 million and their heirs
    A 10% dementia tax on all estates without allowances would be Burnham's poll tax
    Do you want social care to exist or would you rather watch local councils to fall apart.

    Which is why no-one is going to use that attack because the problem needs to be fixed and we can't kick the can down the road any longer.

    Well we could but that means the only thing our council tax will be used for is social care of people and nothing else..

    You think no one will object to a 10% dementia tax when their estate is free of tax within the present regime ?
    Yes, you don't pay inheritance tax, your children do. Actually I don't have children and don't really give a flying fuck what happens to my money after I die.

    Anyway, paying a 10% tax so you can keep the bulk of your inheritance might seem a good option. It's a bit like insurance, pay 10% or have a non-zero chance of it all being swallowed in care home fees.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 91,161
    Missed this earlier in the year, but the system has surfaced at Farnborough. Looks decent kit and reasonably cost effective.

    UK start-up to supply interceptor missiles to UK military and Gulf partners
    Defence Secretary announces Cambridge Aerospace set to supply new interceptor missiles - known as 'Skyhammer' and launchers to the UK Armed Forces and Gulf partners.
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-start-up-to-supply-interceptor-missiles-to-uk-military-and-gulf-partners

    Downside is that Shapps is on the board.


  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 92,564
    edited 4:09PM
    Sandpit said:

    Another more than half empty stadium in the Hundred. No wonder I am constantly getting spammed with promo emails.

    I think they sold the tix for £10 to get the crowds in? Or was that only the first couple of years?
    The first couple of years it was something like that and loads of freebies. Since then the ECB were still subsidising the tickets. I asked the other day, now its PE money, have the tickets gone up in price? I got spammed with early bird discounts and they have sent 3-4 in the past week, but i am not interested so didnt read what the offer was.

    Just dug one offer out the bin, was offering me £20 odd for adults, £5 for kids, if bought a few days before a game.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 8,459

    Nigelb said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    Nigelb said:

    Andy Burnham will unveil plans next week for adult social care in the first major policy speech of his premiership as he pledges to “face it and fix it”

    The prime minister has pledged to overhaul social care so that it “operates on the NHS principle” and is free at the point of need in a move that is projected to cost £18.5 billion a year

    However, The Times has been told that this “universal” offer is unlikely to cover the “daily living costs” of a care home, such as laundry, food, accommodation and energy bills

    It means home residents could still face bills of tens of thousands of pounds for accommodation costs under proposals for a new National Care Service

    Covering these costs for everybody would add about an extra £16 billion to annual costs, according to estimates based on average care home fees

    Dame Louise Casey, who is leading a commission looking at adult social care in England, is poised to launch a national conversation this month on how it should be paid for

    Burnham is expected to give a speech setting out his vision in London next week

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2080932513829036145

    Prediction - this will never come to fruition.

    Because if it did, it would do for Labour's reputation for the rest of time. Without 'laundry, food, accommodation and energy bills', most people are not going to notice any difference in care costs.

    So its just a death tax for everyone with no benefit.

    If it removes the need to sell your home to pay for residential social care costs and instead just replaces it with a 10% levy on estates that would benefit most estates. Ironically especially in London and the South. Though just the nursing care isn’t enough
    WRT the putative 10% levy on estates, the devil is in some detail. Which estates? At the moment for most people to whom it is relevant there is a disregard for couples of £1million (being 325K x 2 + the main residence allowance of £175K each.)

    If the 10% kicks in at nil, or £200K or something it will bring millions into tax currently outside it. There is also the question of lawful avoidance. It would not be simple.
    I believe Burnham has said he wants to scrap inheritance tax and replace it with the 10% levy. So that would mean all estates over £325k, the current threshold for IHT but with no exemption of the main property from IHT for couples up to £1 million as there would be no 40% IHT to pay, just one 10% rate.

    If Burnham instead said all estates should pay the 10% levy then that would go down like a lead balloon with those with total assets under £325k though it would be hugely popular with those with estates over £1 million and their heirs
    A 10% dementia tax on all estates without allowances would be Burnham's poll tax
    Do you want social care to exist or would you rather watch local councils to fall apart.

    Which is why no-one is going to use that attack because the problem needs to be fixed and we can't kick the can down the road any longer.

    Well we could but that means the only thing our council tax will be used for is social care of people and nothing else..

    You think no one will object to a 10% dementia tax when their estate is free of tax within the present regime ?

    I expect the children of the elderly will not be impressed
    I expect the children of the elderly in care might well be.

    "Burnham's poll tax" is lazy nonsense.
    The best way is some form of insurance scheme

    If Burnham keeps the present allowances then he may have a point but everyone paying 10% IHT will include those who do not own property
    That sounds like insurance to me. Does it matter in what form the inheritance is held?

    Make it simple. No allowances, no options. Put accountants and tax lawyers out of business
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 23,484
    edited 4:06PM
    Nigelb said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    Nigelb said:

    Andy Burnham will unveil plans next week for adult social care in the first major policy speech of his premiership as he pledges to “face it and fix it”

    The prime minister has pledged to overhaul social care so that it “operates on the NHS principle” and is free at the point of need in a move that is projected to cost £18.5 billion a year

    However, The Times has been told that this “universal” offer is unlikely to cover the “daily living costs” of a care home, such as laundry, food, accommodation and energy bills

    It means home residents could still face bills of tens of thousands of pounds for accommodation costs under proposals for a new National Care Service

    Covering these costs for everybody would add about an extra £16 billion to annual costs, according to estimates based on average care home fees

    Dame Louise Casey, who is leading a commission looking at adult social care in England, is poised to launch a national conversation this month on how it should be paid for

    Burnham is expected to give a speech setting out his vision in London next week

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2080932513829036145

    Prediction - this will never come to fruition.

    Because if it did, it would do for Labour's reputation for the rest of time. Without 'laundry, food, accommodation and energy bills', most people are not going to notice any difference in care costs.

    So its just a death tax for everyone with no benefit.

    If it removes the need to sell your home to pay for residential social care costs and instead just replaces it with a 10% levy on estates that would benefit most estates. Ironically especially in London and the South. Though just the nursing care isn’t enough
    WRT the putative 10% levy on estates, the devil is in some detail. Which estates? At the moment for most people to whom it is relevant there is a disregard for couples of £1million (being 325K x 2 + the main residence allowance of £175K each.)

    If the 10% kicks in at nil, or £200K or something it will bring millions into tax currently outside it. There is also the question of lawful avoidance. It would not be simple.
    I believe Burnham has said he wants to scrap inheritance tax and replace it with the 10% levy. So that would mean all estates over £325k, the current threshold for IHT but with no exemption of the main property from IHT for couples up to £1 million as there would be no 40% IHT to pay, just one 10% rate.

    If Burnham instead said all estates should pay the 10% levy then that would go down like a lead balloon with those with total assets under £325k though it would be hugely popular with those with estates over £1 million and their heirs
    A 10% dementia tax on all estates without allowances would be Burnham's poll tax
    Do you want social care to exist or would you rather watch local councils to fall apart.

    Which is why no-one is going to use that attack because the problem needs to be fixed and we can't kick the can down the road any longer.

    Well we could but that means the only thing our council tax will be used for is social care of people and nothing else..

    You think no one will object to a 10% dementia tax when their estate is free of tax within the present regime ?

    I expect the children of the elderly will not be impressed
    I expect the children of the elderly in care might well be.

    "Burnham's poll tax" is lazy nonsense.
    There's a dynamic a bit like that "would you rather have £50k or a 50:50 chance of £1 million" poll going on here.

    Very many old people don't need much social care support for very long. That leaves a bill that's significant but pretty manageable if you have a house among your assets.

    A smallish number of people need lots of expensive care in their final years. Enough to absorb almost all they have and then all their local council has.

    Would you rather definitely pay some, or possibly pay everything? Messieurs et Mesdames, faites vos jeux.

    It boils down to the challenge facing any Prime Minister, but perhaps Burnham in particular. If you want to improve this bit of society (popular), society as a whole is somehow going to have to pay for it in taxes (unpopular). Similarly, if you want to reduce taxes (popular), some bits of society are, at best, going to have to be provided differently (unpopular).
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,794

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    Nigelb said:

    Andy Burnham will unveil plans next week for adult social care in the first major policy speech of his premiership as he pledges to “face it and fix it”

    The prime minister has pledged to overhaul social care so that it “operates on the NHS principle” and is free at the point of need in a move that is projected to cost £18.5 billion a year

    However, The Times has been told that this “universal” offer is unlikely to cover the “daily living costs” of a care home, such as laundry, food, accommodation and energy bills

    It means home residents could still face bills of tens of thousands of pounds for accommodation costs under proposals for a new National Care Service

    Covering these costs for everybody would add about an extra £16 billion to annual costs, according to estimates based on average care home fees

    Dame Louise Casey, who is leading a commission looking at adult social care in England, is poised to launch a national conversation this month on how it should be paid for

    Burnham is expected to give a speech setting out his vision in London next week

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2080932513829036145

    Prediction - this will never come to fruition.

    Because if it did, it would do for Labour's reputation for the rest of time. Without 'laundry, food, accommodation and energy bills', most people are not going to notice any difference in care costs.

    So its just a death tax for everyone with no benefit.

    If it removes the need to sell your home to pay for residential social care costs and instead just replaces it with a 10% levy on estates that would benefit most estates. Ironically especially in London and the South. Though just the nursing care isn’t enough
    WRT the putative 10% levy on estates, the devil is in some detail. Which estates? At the moment for most people to whom it is relevant there is a disregard for couples of £1million (being 325K x 2 + the main residence allowance of £175K each.)

    If the 10% kicks in at nil, or £200K or something it will bring millions into tax currently outside it. There is also the question of lawful avoidance. It would not be simple.
    I believe Burnham has said he wants to scrap inheritance tax and replace it with the 10% levy. So that would mean all estates over £325k, the current threshold for IHT but with no exemption of the main property from IHT for couples up to £1 million as there would be no 40% IHT to pay, just one 10% rate.

    If Burnham instead said all estates should pay the 10% levy then that would go down like a lead balloon with those with total assets under £325k though it would be hugely popular with those with estates over £1 million and their heirs
    A 10% dementia tax on all estates without allowances would be Burnham's poll tax
    Do you want social care to exist or would you rather watch local councils to fall apart.

    Which is why no-one is going to use that attack because the problem needs to be fixed and we can't kick the can down the road any longer.

    Well we could but that means the only thing our council tax will be used for is social care of people and nothing else..

    You think no one will object to a 10% dementia tax when their estate is free of tax within the present regime ?
    Yes, you don't pay inheritance tax, your children do. Actually I don't have children and don't really give a flying fuck what happens to my money after I die.

    Anyway, paying a 10% tax so you can keep the bulk of your inheritance might seem a good option. It's a bit like insurance, pay 10% or have a non-zero chance of it all being swallowed in care home fees.
    As I understand it Burnham proposals do not exempt care home charges entirely
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,794

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    Nigelb said:

    Andy Burnham will unveil plans next week for adult social care in the first major policy speech of his premiership as he pledges to “face it and fix it”

    The prime minister has pledged to overhaul social care so that it “operates on the NHS principle” and is free at the point of need in a move that is projected to cost £18.5 billion a year

    However, The Times has been told that this “universal” offer is unlikely to cover the “daily living costs” of a care home, such as laundry, food, accommodation and energy bills

    It means home residents could still face bills of tens of thousands of pounds for accommodation costs under proposals for a new National Care Service

    Covering these costs for everybody would add about an extra £16 billion to annual costs, according to estimates based on average care home fees

    Dame Louise Casey, who is leading a commission looking at adult social care in England, is poised to launch a national conversation this month on how it should be paid for

    Burnham is expected to give a speech setting out his vision in London next week

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2080932513829036145

    Prediction - this will never come to fruition.

    Because if it did, it would do for Labour's reputation for the rest of time. Without 'laundry, food, accommodation and energy bills', most people are not going to notice any difference in care costs.

    So its just a death tax for everyone with no benefit.

    If it removes the need to sell your home to pay for residential social care costs and instead just replaces it with a 10% levy on estates that would benefit most estates. Ironically especially in London and the South. Though just the nursing care isn’t enough
    WRT the putative 10% levy on estates, the devil is in some detail. Which estates? At the moment for most people to whom it is relevant there is a disregard for couples of £1million (being 325K x 2 + the main residence allowance of £175K each.)

    If the 10% kicks in at nil, or £200K or something it will bring millions into tax currently outside it. There is also the question of lawful avoidance. It would not be simple.
    I believe Burnham has said he wants to scrap inheritance tax and replace it with the 10% levy. So that would mean all estates over £325k, the current threshold for IHT but with no exemption of the main property from IHT for couples up to £1 million as there would be no 40% IHT to pay, just one 10% rate.

    If Burnham instead said all estates should pay the 10% levy then that would go down like a lead balloon with those with total assets under £325k though it would be hugely popular with those with estates over £1 million and their heirs
    A 10% dementia tax on all estates without allowances would be Burnham's poll tax
    Do you want social care to exist or would you rather watch local councils to fall apart.

    Which is why no-one is going to use that attack because the problem needs to be fixed and we can't kick the can down the road any longer.

    Well we could but that means the only thing our council tax will be used for is social care of people and nothing else..

    You think no one will object to a 10% dementia tax when their estate is free of tax within the present regime ?
    Yes, you don't pay inheritance tax, your children do. Actually I don't have children and don't really give a flying fuck what happens to my money after I die.

    Anyway, paying a 10% tax so you can keep the bulk of your inheritance might seem a good option. It's a bit like insurance, pay 10% or have a non-zero chance of it all being swallowed in care home fees.
    As I understand it Burnham proposals do not exempt care home charges entirely
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 92,564
    edited 4:11PM
    Police are investigating payments to Reform UK by a company controlled by the party's deputy leader, Richard Tice, BBC News has learned.

    BBC News - Police investigate donations by Tice company to Reform UK
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5yv4r5g55do

    This is a once a week story, somebody helpfully leaking information to keep it going.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 8,459

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    Nigelb said:

    Andy Burnham will unveil plans next week for adult social care in the first major policy speech of his premiership as he pledges to “face it and fix it”

    The prime minister has pledged to overhaul social care so that it “operates on the NHS principle” and is free at the point of need in a move that is projected to cost £18.5 billion a year

    However, The Times has been told that this “universal” offer is unlikely to cover the “daily living costs” of a care home, such as laundry, food, accommodation and energy bills

    It means home residents could still face bills of tens of thousands of pounds for accommodation costs under proposals for a new National Care Service

    Covering these costs for everybody would add about an extra £16 billion to annual costs, according to estimates based on average care home fees

    Dame Louise Casey, who is leading a commission looking at adult social care in England, is poised to launch a national conversation this month on how it should be paid for

    Burnham is expected to give a speech setting out his vision in London next week

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2080932513829036145

    Prediction - this will never come to fruition.

    Because if it did, it would do for Labour's reputation for the rest of time. Without 'laundry, food, accommodation and energy bills', most people are not going to notice any difference in care costs.

    So its just a death tax for everyone with no benefit.

    If it removes the need to sell your home to pay for residential social care costs and instead just replaces it with a 10% levy on estates that would benefit most estates. Ironically especially in London and the South. Though just the nursing care isn’t enough
    WRT the putative 10% levy on estates, the devil is in some detail. Which estates? At the moment for most people to whom it is relevant there is a disregard for couples of £1million (being 325K x 2 + the main residence allowance of £175K each.)

    If the 10% kicks in at nil, or £200K or something it will bring millions into tax currently outside it. There is also the question of lawful avoidance. It would not be simple.
    I believe Burnham has said he wants to scrap inheritance tax and replace it with the 10% levy. So that would mean all estates over £325k, the current threshold for IHT but with no exemption of the main property from IHT for couples up to £1 million as there would be no 40% IHT to pay, just one 10% rate.

    If Burnham instead said all estates should pay the 10% levy then that would go down like a lead balloon with those with total assets under £325k though it would be hugely popular with those with estates over £1 million and their heirs
    A 10% dementia tax on all estates without allowances would be Burnham's poll tax
    Do you want social care to exist or would you rather watch local councils to fall apart.

    Which is why no-one is going to use that attack because the problem needs to be fixed and we can't kick the can down the road any longer.

    Well we could but that means the only thing our council tax will be used for is social care of people and nothing else..

    You think no one will object to a 10% dementia tax when their estate is free of tax within the present regime ?
    Yes, you don't pay inheritance tax, your children do. Actually I don't have children and don't really give a flying fuck what happens to my money after I die.

    Anyway, paying a 10% tax so you can keep the bulk of your inheritance might seem a good option. It's a bit like insurance, pay 10% or have a non-zero chance of it all being swallowed in care home fees.
    As I understand it Burnham proposals do not exempt care home charges entirely
    I currently pay for food, heating, laundry etc. Not sure why I should get a free ride if I go into a care home. Plus, my spare cash goes on beer and holidays and I obviously won't be drinking much or travelling. I suppose the question is, how much should people be expected to pay, and maybe will you be able to.top it up to get better "hotel services"
  • eekeek Posts: 34,750

    Police are investigating payments to Reform UK by a company controlled by the party's deputy leader, Richard Tice, BBC News has learned.

    BBC News - Police investigate donations by Tice company to Reform UK
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5yv4r5g55do

    This is a once a week story, somebody helpfully leaking information to keep it going.

    I think someone has leaked all the data but the Sunday Times knows how to manage the release of it, slowly, week by week in small enough chunks that you this weeks story is easy to understand and builds up a narrative.
  • eekeek Posts: 34,750

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    Nigelb said:

    Andy Burnham will unveil plans next week for adult social care in the first major policy speech of his premiership as he pledges to “face it and fix it”

    The prime minister has pledged to overhaul social care so that it “operates on the NHS principle” and is free at the point of need in a move that is projected to cost £18.5 billion a year

    However, The Times has been told that this “universal” offer is unlikely to cover the “daily living costs” of a care home, such as laundry, food, accommodation and energy bills

    It means home residents could still face bills of tens of thousands of pounds for accommodation costs under proposals for a new National Care Service

    Covering these costs for everybody would add about an extra £16 billion to annual costs, according to estimates based on average care home fees

    Dame Louise Casey, who is leading a commission looking at adult social care in England, is poised to launch a national conversation this month on how it should be paid for

    Burnham is expected to give a speech setting out his vision in London next week

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2080932513829036145

    Prediction - this will never come to fruition.

    Because if it did, it would do for Labour's reputation for the rest of time. Without 'laundry, food, accommodation and energy bills', most people are not going to notice any difference in care costs.

    So its just a death tax for everyone with no benefit.

    If it removes the need to sell your home to pay for residential social care costs and instead just replaces it with a 10% levy on estates that would benefit most estates. Ironically especially in London and the South. Though just the nursing care isn’t enough
    WRT the putative 10% levy on estates, the devil is in some detail. Which estates? At the moment for most people to whom it is relevant there is a disregard for couples of £1million (being 325K x 2 + the main residence allowance of £175K each.)

    If the 10% kicks in at nil, or £200K or something it will bring millions into tax currently outside it. There is also the question of lawful avoidance. It would not be simple.
    I believe Burnham has said he wants to scrap inheritance tax and replace it with the 10% levy. So that would mean all estates over £325k, the current threshold for IHT but with no exemption of the main property from IHT for couples up to £1 million as there would be no 40% IHT to pay, just one 10% rate.

    If Burnham instead said all estates should pay the 10% levy then that would go down like a lead balloon with those with total assets under £325k though it would be hugely popular with those with estates over £1 million and their heirs
    A 10% dementia tax on all estates without allowances would be Burnham's poll tax
    Do you want social care to exist or would you rather watch local councils to fall apart.

    Which is why no-one is going to use that attack because the problem needs to be fixed and we can't kick the can down the road any longer.

    Well we could but that means the only thing our council tax will be used for is social care of people and nothing else..

    You think no one will object to a 10% dementia tax when their estate is free of tax within the present regime ?
    Yes, you don't pay inheritance tax, your children do. Actually I don't have children and don't really give a flying fuck what happens to my money after I die.

    Anyway, paying a 10% tax so you can keep the bulk of your inheritance might seem a good option. It's a bit like insurance, pay 10% or have a non-zero chance of it all being swallowed in care home fees.
    As I understand it Burnham proposals do not exempt care home charges entirely
    The hotel fees (bed and board) have never been excluded from any attempt to solve social care..
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,794

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    Nigelb said:

    Andy Burnham will unveil plans next week for adult social care in the first major policy speech of his premiership as he pledges to “face it and fix it”

    The prime minister has pledged to overhaul social care so that it “operates on the NHS principle” and is free at the point of need in a move that is projected to cost £18.5 billion a year

    However, The Times has been told that this “universal” offer is unlikely to cover the “daily living costs” of a care home, such as laundry, food, accommodation and energy bills

    It means home residents could still face bills of tens of thousands of pounds for accommodation costs under proposals for a new National Care Service

    Covering these costs for everybody would add about an extra £16 billion to annual costs, according to estimates based on average care home fees

    Dame Louise Casey, who is leading a commission looking at adult social care in England, is poised to launch a national conversation this month on how it should be paid for

    Burnham is expected to give a speech setting out his vision in London next week

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2080932513829036145

    Prediction - this will never come to fruition.

    Because if it did, it would do for Labour's reputation for the rest of time. Without 'laundry, food, accommodation and energy bills', most people are not going to notice any difference in care costs.

    So its just a death tax for everyone with no benefit.

    If it removes the need to sell your home to pay for residential social care costs and instead just replaces it with a 10% levy on estates that would benefit most estates. Ironically especially in London and the South. Though just the nursing care isn’t enough
    WRT the putative 10% levy on estates, the devil is in some detail. Which estates? At the moment for most people to whom it is relevant there is a disregard for couples of £1million (being 325K x 2 + the main residence allowance of £175K each.)

    If the 10% kicks in at nil, or £200K or something it will bring millions into tax currently outside it. There is also the question of lawful avoidance. It would not be simple.
    I believe Burnham has said he wants to scrap inheritance tax and replace it with the 10% levy. So that would mean all estates over £325k, the current threshold for IHT but with no exemption of the main property from IHT for couples up to £1 million as there would be no 40% IHT to pay, just one 10% rate.

    If Burnham instead said all estates should pay the 10% levy then that would go down like a lead balloon with those with total assets under £325k though it would be hugely popular with those with estates over £1 million and their heirs
    A 10% dementia tax on all estates without allowances would be Burnham's poll tax
    Do you want social care to exist or would you rather watch local councils to fall apart.

    Which is why no-one is going to use that attack because the problem needs to be fixed and we can't kick the can down the road any longer.

    Well we could but that means the only thing our council tax will be used for is social care of people and nothing else..

    You think no one will object to a 10% dementia tax when their estate is free of tax within the present regime ?
    Yes, you don't pay inheritance tax, your children do. Actually I don't have children and don't really give a flying fuck what happens to my money after I die.

    Anyway, paying a 10% tax so you can keep the bulk of your inheritance might seem a good option. It's a bit like insurance, pay 10% or have a non-zero chance of it all being swallowed in care home fees.
    As I understand it Burnham proposals do not exempt care home charges entirely
    I currently pay for food, heating, laundry etc. Not sure why I should get a free ride if I go into a care home. Plus, my spare cash goes on beer and holidays and I obviously won't be drinking much or travelling. I suppose the question is, how much should people be expected to pay, and maybe will you be able to.top it up to get better "hotel services"
    The present system is not sustainable but there are no easy answers

    My sister had terminal cancer for 2 years and all her nursing home fees were paid by Wales NHS, but my former son in law's parents had dementia and paid £200,000 in fees

    @Stuartinromford sums it up well
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 92,564
    edited 4:22PM
    eek said:

    Police are investigating payments to Reform UK by a company controlled by the party's deputy leader, Richard Tice, BBC News has learned.

    BBC News - Police investigate donations by Tice company to Reform UK
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5yv4r5g55do

    This is a once a week story, somebody helpfully leaking information to keep it going.

    I think someone has leaked all the data but the Sunday Times knows how to manage the release of it, slowly, week by week in small enough chunks that you this weeks story is easy to understand and builds up a narrative.
    This has gone to the BBC. I said before, bit like Big Ange story, somebody close has all the jigsaw pieces and has a favourite place to leak to, but did spread it around a bit. I imagine what do media types get all excitable, an exclusive leak / scoop, so spread it around a bit and it goes from Times has a story maybe we will report it, to we are also in on the action.

    The Guardian has been extensively leaked to along side the Times.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 64,569
    edited 4:25PM
    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "The far-Right plot that never was: Twelve were arrested after 'threat' against 15,000-strong Islamic festival. Days later, all terror charges were dropped. Now, Sue Reid explores what happened... and link to Ann Widdecombe's murder"

    https://www.dailymail.com/news/article-16003453/far-right-plot-Islamic-festival-British-Security-Project-terror-Ann-Widdecombe-investigation-SUE-REID.html

    That is a group calling itself "British Security Project", flying drones filming an Islamic festival, a newish right-wing extremist group.

    One of the 12 people arrested after the drone-flying exercise was sentenced to 6 months in prison, suspended for 2 years, for having weapons (stun gun whatever that is, extendable baton) in his van, and another baton at his home, after a guilty plea.

    I have no problem whatsoever with this police action to protect law abiding citizens from this threat, regardless of my skepticism for the Muslim group running the festival (the Keswick Conference is probably a decent comparison).

    I'd say the the Mail in this piece is attempting to minimise what happened: Hurrah for the Blackshirts.
    A stun gun would be some kind of taser like device. Probably the kind that is directly pushed into the target, rather than firing darts on wires.

    They are illegal in the UK.
    If they are designed to look like something else, and most of them look like torches and have a light on them, then they become a disguised stun gun, possession of which carries a minimum sentence of 5 years because they are classed as a firearm. It is a ridiculously disproportionate sentence for something most of the accused have bought on holiday (where they were legal) without any understanding of the consequences. Don't be stupid enough to possess one under any circumstances.
    Absolutely. When I consider that the police got bent out of shape about my relatively small two stage fission/fusion device.

    I mean, what is 50kt when we are taking backyard physics?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,573
    So the narrative is Cottrell wanted to hide his Reform donations so gave the money to his mum who then made the donation .

    Farage and Reform didn’t want the bad publicity of a convicted fraudster giving them money in the run upto the GE .

    That seems to be the sum of it IMO .
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,759

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    Nigelb said:

    Andy Burnham will unveil plans next week for adult social care in the first major policy speech of his premiership as he pledges to “face it and fix it”

    The prime minister has pledged to overhaul social care so that it “operates on the NHS principle” and is free at the point of need in a move that is projected to cost £18.5 billion a year

    However, The Times has been told that this “universal” offer is unlikely to cover the “daily living costs” of a care home, such as laundry, food, accommodation and energy bills

    It means home residents could still face bills of tens of thousands of pounds for accommodation costs under proposals for a new National Care Service

    Covering these costs for everybody would add about an extra £16 billion to annual costs, according to estimates based on average care home fees

    Dame Louise Casey, who is leading a commission looking at adult social care in England, is poised to launch a national conversation this month on how it should be paid for

    Burnham is expected to give a speech setting out his vision in London next week

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2080932513829036145

    Prediction - this will never come to fruition.

    Because if it did, it would do for Labour's reputation for the rest of time. Without 'laundry, food, accommodation and energy bills', most people are not going to notice any difference in care costs.

    So its just a death tax for everyone with no benefit.

    If it removes the need to sell your home to pay for residential social care costs and instead just replaces it with a 10% levy on estates that would benefit most estates. Ironically especially in London and the South. Though just the nursing care isn’t enough
    WRT the putative 10% levy on estates, the devil is in some detail. Which estates? At the moment for most people to whom it is relevant there is a disregard for couples of £1million (being 325K x 2 + the main residence allowance of £175K each.)

    If the 10% kicks in at nil, or £200K or something it will bring millions into tax currently outside it. There is also the question of lawful avoidance. It would not be simple.
    I believe Burnham has said he wants to scrap inheritance tax and replace it with the 10% levy. So that would mean all estates over £325k, the current threshold for IHT but with no exemption of the main property from IHT for couples up to £1 million as there would be no 40% IHT to pay, just one 10% rate.

    If Burnham instead said all estates should pay the 10% levy then that would go down like a lead balloon with those with total assets under £325k though it would be hugely popular with those with estates over £1 million and their heirs
    A 10% dementia tax on all estates without allowances would be Burnham's poll tax
    Do you want social care to exist or would you rather watch local councils to fall apart.

    Which is why no-one is going to use that attack because the problem needs to be fixed and we can't kick the can down the road any longer.

    Well we could but that means the only thing our council tax will be used for is social care of people and nothing else..

    You think no one will object to a 10% dementia tax when their estate is free of tax within the present regime ?
    Yes, you don't pay inheritance tax, your children do. Actually I don't have children and don't really give a flying fuck what happens to my money after I die.

    Anyway, paying a 10% tax so you can keep the bulk of your inheritance might seem a good option. It's a bit like insurance, pay 10% or have a non-zero chance of it all being swallowed in care home fees.
    The biggest winners from inheritance tax being scrapped and replaced with a 10% social care levy on all estates would be those whose parents have an estate of £1 million plus and still would have to pay 40% inheritance tax even with the Osborne exemption on the main family home up to £1 million. Which may not equate too well with Burnham's commitment to tackle inequality, especially if those whose parents have estates under £325k and don't meet the inheritance tax threshold would have to pay the 10% care levy.

    So Burnham would have to handle it with care and ensure that the funds from the social care levy would pay for most care home fees for it to be viable electorally
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 17,920

    Nigelb said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    Nigelb said:

    Andy Burnham will unveil plans next week for adult social care in the first major policy speech of his premiership as he pledges to “face it and fix it”

    The prime minister has pledged to overhaul social care so that it “operates on the NHS principle” and is free at the point of need in a move that is projected to cost £18.5 billion a year

    However, The Times has been told that this “universal” offer is unlikely to cover the “daily living costs” of a care home, such as laundry, food, accommodation and energy bills

    It means home residents could still face bills of tens of thousands of pounds for accommodation costs under proposals for a new National Care Service

    Covering these costs for everybody would add about an extra £16 billion to annual costs, according to estimates based on average care home fees

    Dame Louise Casey, who is leading a commission looking at adult social care in England, is poised to launch a national conversation this month on how it should be paid for

    Burnham is expected to give a speech setting out his vision in London next week

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2080932513829036145

    Prediction - this will never come to fruition.

    Because if it did, it would do for Labour's reputation for the rest of time. Without 'laundry, food, accommodation and energy bills', most people are not going to notice any difference in care costs.

    So its just a death tax for everyone with no benefit.

    If it removes the need to sell your home to pay for residential social care costs and instead just replaces it with a 10% levy on estates that would benefit most estates. Ironically especially in London and the South. Though just the nursing care isn’t enough
    WRT the putative 10% levy on estates, the devil is in some detail. Which estates? At the moment for most people to whom it is relevant there is a disregard for couples of £1million (being 325K x 2 + the main residence allowance of £175K each.)

    If the 10% kicks in at nil, or £200K or something it will bring millions into tax currently outside it. There is also the question of lawful avoidance. It would not be simple.
    I believe Burnham has said he wants to scrap inheritance tax and replace it with the 10% levy. So that would mean all estates over £325k, the current threshold for IHT but with no exemption of the main property from IHT for couples up to £1 million as there would be no 40% IHT to pay, just one 10% rate.

    If Burnham instead said all estates should pay the 10% levy then that would go down like a lead balloon with those with total assets under £325k though it would be hugely popular with those with estates over £1 million and their heirs
    A 10% dementia tax on all estates without allowances would be Burnham's poll tax
    Do you want social care to exist or would you rather watch local councils to fall apart.

    Which is why no-one is going to use that attack because the problem needs to be fixed and we can't kick the can down the road any longer.

    Well we could but that means the only thing our council tax will be used for is social care of people and nothing else..

    You think no one will object to a 10% dementia tax when their estate is free of tax within the present regime ?

    I expect the children of the elderly will not be impressed
    I expect the children of the elderly in care might well be.

    "Burnham's poll tax" is lazy nonsense.
    The best way is some form of insurance scheme

    If Burnham keeps the present allowances then he may have a point but everyone paying 10% IHT will include those who do not own property
    I wonder if Burnham will have a caveat; namely that the proposal to be put to and go through parliament will only happen if there is bipartisan agreement following negotiation; the basis being that this is a long term generational plan and can't work if abolished or tinkered with. He can then blame the others for its non-implementation. This principle could be extendable to stuff like defence expenditure, and even a common agreement never to promise in elections not to raise taxes.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 6,016

    Another more than half empty stadium in the Hundred. No wonder I am constantly getting spammed with promo emails.

    Soon the competition name will be more apt as the number of spectators for this silly nonsense
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 34,853

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Remarkable litotes, TSE.

    ..That said Andy Burnham currently has much better political antennae and communication skills than Gordon Brown.

    I know but then again 29% at the next general election could lead to a Labour landslide.
    If Badenoch went full frontal One Nation Tory, dispensed with all the Reform racism- based rubbish, disposed of all the old- guard scumbags like Michael Green and called the party the New Conservatives she would be on 45%.
    No she wouldn’t as half of those type of voters now vote LD. The Conservatives need to be neither LD2 nor Reform2
    Become One Nation Tories and all your LDs come back home.

    The Tories are already dabbling in Reform 2 narratives.
    But they then lose as many in the other direction to Reform.
    I started to respond to this and then I thought if you can't see swimming in the same excrement as Reform and Restore is sub optimal when there are Labour and LD votes to pick off if you tack to the centre, I am wasting my time.
    Stupid argument.

    Cookie is not advocating voting for Reform or Restore. He is merely pointing out that, since many people will do just that, any move by Badenoch towards the centre ground is likely to be, at best, vote neutral. And almost certainly vote negative given the centre ground is already pretty crowded.

    Again, this is not to advocate for a move to the right, or even staying where the Tory party currently lies. Simply pointing out that any move towards the centre is unlikely to improve Tory electoral fortunes.

    This why, in spite of the current evidence, I think the Tory party is fecked.
    I genuinely believe if the Tories entered what is currently a centrist dead zone between where they currently stand and where LD and right wing Labour are to be found they could do well and quickly in the face of an unpopular Government and a pretender in Farage,who these days keeps being found out as an unreliable Trumpian Charlatan.

    This is the ground Churchill, McMillan, Heath, Thatcher, Major and Cameron won upon. It is dare I say it also the narrative of three time winning PM Blair.
    Unfortunately (or rather for the country at the time fortunately) none of those PMs was a facing a viable right wing alternative. As such they could afford to tack towards the centre without risking losing their right flank. That is not the case now. I actually don't see anyway the Tories ever win again unless we see either a complete collapse of support on the right or a complete fragmentation of the left. Neither of those seems likely to me and actually the latter seems the less unlikely.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 17,920

    eek said:

    Police are investigating payments to Reform UK by a company controlled by the party's deputy leader, Richard Tice, BBC News has learned.

    BBC News - Police investigate donations by Tice company to Reform UK
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5yv4r5g55do

    This is a once a week story, somebody helpfully leaking information to keep it going.

    I think someone has leaked all the data but the Sunday Times knows how to manage the release of it, slowly, week by week in small enough chunks that you this weeks story is easy to understand and builds up a narrative.
    This has gone to the BBC. I said before, bit like Big Ange story, somebody close has all the jigsaw pieces and has a favourite place to leak to, but did spread it around a bit. I imagine what do media types get all excitable, an exclusive leak / scoop, so spread it around a bit and it goes from Times has a story maybe we will report it, to we are also in on the action.

    The Guardian has been extensively leaked to along side the Times.
    Not a single mention in the BBC report of the fact that there is an interesting by-election coming up in which Reform are the leading player. The absolute media silence continues. except that the Clacton Gazette yesterday had a report on the betting market (everyone is backing Binface), ending with a list of 34 candidates.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,759

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Remarkable litotes, TSE.

    ..That said Andy Burnham currently has much better political antennae and communication skills than Gordon Brown.

    I know but then again 29% at the next general election could lead to a Labour landslide.
    If Badenoch went full frontal One Nation Tory, dispensed with all the Reform racism- based rubbish, disposed of all the old- guard scumbags like Michael Green and called the party the New Conservatives she would be on 45%.
    No she wouldn’t as half of those type of voters now vote LD. The Conservatives need to be neither LD2 nor Reform2
    Become One Nation Tories and all your LDs come back home.

    The Tories are already dabbling in Reform 2 narratives.
    But they then lose as many in the other direction to Reform.
    I started to respond to this and then I thought if you can't see swimming in the same excrement as Reform and Restore is sub optimal when there are Labour and LD votes to pick off if you tack to the centre, I am wasting my time.
    Stupid argument.

    Cookie is not advocating voting for Reform or Restore. He is merely pointing out that, since many people will do just that, any move by Badenoch towards the centre ground is likely to be, at best, vote neutral. And almost certainly vote negative given the centre ground is already pretty crowded.

    Again, this is not to advocate for a move to the right, or even staying where the Tory party currently lies. Simply pointing out that any move towards the centre is unlikely to improve Tory electoral fortunes.

    This why, in spite of the current evidence, I think the Tory party is fecked.
    I genuinely believe if the Tories entered what is currently a centrist dead zone between where they currently stand and where LD and right wing Labour are to be found they could do well and quickly in the face of an unpopular Government and a pretender in Farage,who these days keeps being found out as an unreliable Trumpian Charlatan.

    This is the ground Churchill, McMillan, Heath, Thatcher, Major and Cameron won upon. It is dare I say it also the narrative of three time winning PM Blair.
    Unfortunately (or rather for the country at the time fortunately) none of those PMs was a facing a viable right wing alternative. As such they could afford to tack towards the centre without risking losing their right flank. That is not the case now. I actually don't see anyway the Tories ever win again unless we see either a complete collapse of support on the right or a complete fragmentation of the left. Neither of those seems likely to me and actually the latter seems the less unlikely.
    Well on the latest polls last week there would be a hung parliament in which Farage would have zero chance of becoming PM without Kemi's support. So the Tories may not win outright again until a post Farage era but they could still have some power in a post election deal with Reform
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 60,659

    Another more than half empty stadium in the Hundred. No wonder I am constantly getting spammed with promo emails.

    Boring sport anyway! Luke, we're gonna have company!
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 29,371

    ...I mean, what is 50kt when we are taking backyard physics?

    Pause

    Pause

    How big is your backyard again?

    :)

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 129,944
    The Nigel Farage debanking scandal looks different now

    Reform UK’s bank account was frozen after Cottrell donations

    Nigel Farage’s party could not make or receive payments for two weeks during the 2024 general election campaign, Insight can reveal


    Reform UK’s bank account was frozen during the last election after the party received potentially illegal donations from the mother of George Cottrell, the criminal who bankrolled Nigel Farage.

    The party was unable to make or receive payments through its account with Arbuthnot Latham, a London private and merchant bank, for a two-week period that included polling day on July 4, 2024.

    The Reform treasurer at the time repeatedly asked the bank for an explanation, urging it to unfreeze the account. However, Arbuthnot Latham refused. It said it could not unfreeze the account on demand and declined to provide information beyond saying it was performing “compliance checks”.

    Days earlier, bankers had made suspicious activity reports to the National Crime Agency concerning more than £1 million in payments received by the party. They related to Fiona Cottrell, a self-styled “retired stylist” whose son paid for Farage’s staff, security, accommodation and social media output before the campaign in a series of undisclosed benefits.

    In May 2024, Cottrell’s mother gave £500,000 to the party in her own name. The next month, she gave a further £1 million to a company owned by Richard Tice, Farage’s deputy, who then donated half of that sum to Reform.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/reform-uk-bank-account-frozen-george-cottrell-mother-3vr75zb9r
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 91,161
    algarkirk said:

    Nigelb said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    Nigelb said:

    Andy Burnham will unveil plans next week for adult social care in the first major policy speech of his premiership as he pledges to “face it and fix it”

    The prime minister has pledged to overhaul social care so that it “operates on the NHS principle” and is free at the point of need in a move that is projected to cost £18.5 billion a year

    However, The Times has been told that this “universal” offer is unlikely to cover the “daily living costs” of a care home, such as laundry, food, accommodation and energy bills

    It means home residents could still face bills of tens of thousands of pounds for accommodation costs under proposals for a new National Care Service

    Covering these costs for everybody would add about an extra £16 billion to annual costs, according to estimates based on average care home fees

    Dame Louise Casey, who is leading a commission looking at adult social care in England, is poised to launch a national conversation this month on how it should be paid for

    Burnham is expected to give a speech setting out his vision in London next week

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2080932513829036145

    Prediction - this will never come to fruition.

    Because if it did, it would do for Labour's reputation for the rest of time. Without 'laundry, food, accommodation and energy bills', most people are not going to notice any difference in care costs.

    So its just a death tax for everyone with no benefit.

    If it removes the need to sell your home to pay for residential social care costs and instead just replaces it with a 10% levy on estates that would benefit most estates. Ironically especially in London and the South. Though just the nursing care isn’t enough
    WRT the putative 10% levy on estates, the devil is in some detail. Which estates? At the moment for most people to whom it is relevant there is a disregard for couples of £1million (being 325K x 2 + the main residence allowance of £175K each.)

    If the 10% kicks in at nil, or £200K or something it will bring millions into tax currently outside it. There is also the question of lawful avoidance. It would not be simple.
    I believe Burnham has said he wants to scrap inheritance tax and replace it with the 10% levy. So that would mean all estates over £325k, the current threshold for IHT but with no exemption of the main property from IHT for couples up to £1 million as there would be no 40% IHT to pay, just one 10% rate.

    If Burnham instead said all estates should pay the 10% levy then that would go down like a lead balloon with those with total assets under £325k though it would be hugely popular with those with estates over £1 million and their heirs
    A 10% dementia tax on all estates without allowances would be Burnham's poll tax
    Do you want social care to exist or would you rather watch local councils to fall apart.

    Which is why no-one is going to use that attack because the problem needs to be fixed and we can't kick the can down the road any longer.

    Well we could but that means the only thing our council tax will be used for is social care of people and nothing else..

    You think no one will object to a 10% dementia tax when their estate is free of tax within the present regime ?

    I expect the children of the elderly will not be impressed
    I expect the children of the elderly in care might well be.

    "Burnham's poll tax" is lazy nonsense.
    The best way is some form of insurance scheme

    If Burnham keeps the present allowances then he may have a point but everyone paying 10% IHT will include those who do not own property
    I wonder if Burnham will have a caveat; namely that the proposal to be put to and go through parliament will only happen if there is bipartisan agreement following negotiation; the basis being that this is a long term generational plan and can't work if abolished or tinkered with. He can then blame the others for its non-implementation. This principle could be extendable to stuff like defence expenditure, and even a common agreement never to promise in elections not to raise taxes.
    There's no way such a scheme could work without some sort of consensus.
    Not clear how far that would have to extend though.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 129,944
    Something very interesting did happen in The Hundred today.

    Tim David becomes the latest player to question Usman Tariq's bowling action.

    https://x.com/CallMeSheri1_/status/2080970876951085143

    I reckon he could give Luke Littler a run for his money.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 34,135
    edited 4:55PM
    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    Nigelb said:

    Andy Burnham will unveil plans next week for adult social care in the first major policy speech of his premiership as he pledges to “face it and fix it”

    The prime minister has pledged to overhaul social care so that it “operates on the NHS principle” and is free at the point of need in a move that is projected to cost £18.5 billion a year

    However, The Times has been told that this “universal” offer is unlikely to cover the “daily living costs” of a care home, such as laundry, food, accommodation and energy bills

    It means home residents could still face bills of tens of thousands of pounds for accommodation costs under proposals for a new National Care Service

    Covering these costs for everybody would add about an extra £16 billion to annual costs, according to estimates based on average care home fees

    Dame Louise Casey, who is leading a commission looking at adult social care in England, is poised to launch a national conversation this month on how it should be paid for

    Burnham is expected to give a speech setting out his vision in London next week

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2080932513829036145

    Prediction - this will never come to fruition.

    Because if it did, it would do for Labour's reputation for the rest of time. Without 'laundry, food, accommodation and energy bills', most people are not going to notice any difference in care costs.

    So its just a death tax for everyone with no benefit.

    If it removes the need to sell your home to pay for residential social care costs and instead just replaces it with a 10% levy on estates that would benefit most estates. Ironically especially in London and the South. Though just the nursing care isn’t enough
    WRT the putative 10% levy on estates, the devil is in some detail. Which estates? At the moment for most people to whom it is relevant there is a disregard for couples of £1million (being 325K x 2 + the main residence allowance of £175K each.)

    If the 10% kicks in at nil, or £200K or something it will bring millions into tax currently outside it. There is also the question of lawful avoidance. It would not be simple.
    I believe Burnham has said he wants to scrap inheritance tax and replace it with the 10% levy. So that would mean all estates over £325k, the current threshold for IHT but with no exemption of the main property from IHT for couples up to £1 million as there would be no 40% IHT to pay, just one 10% rate.

    If Burnham instead said all estates should pay the 10% levy then that would go down like a lead balloon with those with total assets under £325k though it would be hugely popular with those with estates over £1 million and their heirs
    A 10% dementia tax on all estates without allowances would be Burnham's poll tax
    Do you want social care to exist or would you rather watch local councils to fall apart.

    Which is why no-one is going to use that attack because the problem needs to be fixed and we can't kick the can down the road any longer.

    Well we could but that means the only thing our council tax will be used for is social care of people and nothing else..

    You think no one will object to a 10% dementia tax when their estate is free of tax within the present regime ?
    Yes, you don't pay inheritance tax, your children do. Actually I don't have children and don't really give a flying fuck what happens to my money after I die.

    Anyway, paying a 10% tax so you can keep the bulk of your inheritance might seem a good option. It's a bit like insurance, pay 10% or have a non-zero chance of it all being swallowed in care home fees.
    The biggest winners from inheritance tax being scrapped and replaced with a 10% social care levy on all estates would be those whose parents have an estate of £1 million plus and still would have to pay 40% inheritance tax even with the Osborne exemption on the main family home up to £1 million. Which may not equate too well with Burnham's commitment to tackle inequality, especially if those whose parents have estates under £325k and don't meet the inheritance tax threshold would have to pay the 10% care levy.

    So Burnham would have to handle it with care and ensure that the funds from the social care levy would pay for most care home fees for it to be viable electorally
    I need to see some spreadsheets to understand how that would work.

    I presume we are starting with needing to raise the current iHT revenue PLUS up to £18.5bn per annum. iHT raised ~£8bn per annum but it is increasing.

    And surely it will require some reforms to lifetime gifts (especially for example "unneeded" income being giftable with aiui no tax - though this is not my specialism).

    This scheme is, effectively, a form of collective social insurance, afaics.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 23,484
    viewcode said:

    ...I mean, what is 50kt when we are taking backyard physics?

    Pause

    Pause

    How big is your backyard again?

    :)

    Bigger than it was than before a certain detonation.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,573

    The Nigel Farage debanking scandal looks different now

    Reform UK’s bank account was frozen after Cottrell donations

    Nigel Farage’s party could not make or receive payments for two weeks during the 2024 general election campaign, Insight can reveal


    Reform UK’s bank account was frozen during the last election after the party received potentially illegal donations from the mother of George Cottrell, the criminal who bankrolled Nigel Farage.

    The party was unable to make or receive payments through its account with Arbuthnot Latham, a London private and merchant bank, for a two-week period that included polling day on July 4, 2024.

    The Reform treasurer at the time repeatedly asked the bank for an explanation, urging it to unfreeze the account. However, Arbuthnot Latham refused. It said it could not unfreeze the account on demand and declined to provide information beyond saying it was performing “compliance checks”.

    Days earlier, bankers had made suspicious activity reports to the National Crime Agency concerning more than £1 million in payments received by the party. They related to Fiona Cottrell, a self-styled “retired stylist” whose son paid for Farage’s staff, security, accommodation and social media output before the campaign in a series of undisclosed benefits.

    In May 2024, Cottrell’s mother gave £500,000 to the party in her own name. The next month, she gave a further £1 million to a company owned by Richard Tice, Farage’s deputy, who then donated half of that sum to Reform.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/reform-uk-bank-account-frozen-george-cottrell-mother-3vr75zb9r

    Why didn’t she just donate directly to Reform the second time . Why the need for it to go through Tice’s company ? And why did he only pass on half the money to Reform ? Just imagine what these lying grifters could get up to if the country lost sense of its mind and put them into power .
  • stodgestodge Posts: 16,887
    Late afternoon all :)

    The whole social care question is nuanced.

    Not everyone ends up needing residential or dementia care - indeed, many live at home, cared for by members of the family. Obviously, there are some who will die before care becomes an issue.

    The other side of social care (and which isn't talked about) is the care of children. There are children with physical and mental disabilities requiring constant care and whereas, to be blunt, many of them would have died 30 or 40 years back, now they survive into adulthood and beyond the point when they can be cared for by parents or guardians.

    This means either domicilary care or specialist residential care in a dedicated facility which may involve transport.

    That is also all within the local authority purview and the children don't usually have assets which can be drawn on (or a charge put against) to cover costs.

    There's also the question of those who provide care within the family - the current Carers' Allowance has its critics and we have to accept the enormous work done by people to support both older and younger relatives.
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