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Just 1 in 5 Labour members want Andy Burnham to appoint Ed Miliband as Chancellor -politicalbetting

SystemSystem Posts: 13,241
edited 8:45AM in General
Just 1 in 5 Labour members want Andy Burnham to appoint Ed Miliband as Chancellor – politicalbetting.com

Who do Labour members want Andy Burnham to pick as chancellor?Ed Miliband: 21%Rachel Reeves: 20%Wes Streeting: 6%Darren Jones: 5%Yvette Cooper: 5%Other: 13%Don't know/no preference: 30%yougov.com/en-gb/articl…

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  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 129,583
    First?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 25,763
    Bingley referendum news:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c8j2n2dxnv2o

    "The small town about to hold a referendum on its future."

    A bit of a condescending headline, mind.
  • eekeek Posts: 34,466
    Given 10 named options and the ability to pick only 1 - 21% is not failure your headline makes it out to be.

    What I find surprising is that 20% want Rachel to remain there...
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,780
    edited 8:50AM
    30% of those expressing a preference, ahead of any other candidate and, excluding Rachel Reeves (for obvious reasons), almost as much as all the other named options combined.

    Ready yourself for an Ed Miliband budget.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,462
    Miliband still far ahead of Streeting and Cooper and preferred to Reeves too so clear Labour members want Burnham to make Ed Miliband chancellor and shift left
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 60,381
    Ed leader: "All wings report in"

    Ed 10: "Ed Ten standing by."

    Ed 7: "Ed Seven standing by."

    Ed 3: "Ed Three standing by."

    Ed Four: "Ed Four standing by."

    Ed Six: "Ed Six standing by."

    Ed 9: "Ed Nine standing by."

    Ed 2: "Ed Two standing by."

    Ed 11: "Ed Eleven standing by."

    Ed 5: "Ed Five standing by."
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 129,583
    eek said:

    Given 10 named options and the ability to pick only 1 - 21% is not failure your headline makes it out to be.

    What I find surprising is that 20% want Rachel to remain there...

    I was surprised too.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,780
    I guess it is possible that Reeves was so poor as Chancellor because of Starmer's influence/interference/leadership, and perhaps she'd do better if Burnham is a better PM than Starmer, but I think that politically, with the wider public, a new start is required, and the remaining supporters of Reeves among Labour Party members are going to have to lump it.
  • eekeek Posts: 34,466
    edited 8:59AM

    I guess it is possible that Reeves was so poor as Chancellor because of Starmer's influence/interference/leadership, and perhaps she'd do better if Burnham is a better PM than Starmer, but I think that politically, with the wider public, a new start is required, and the remaining supporters of Reeves among Labour Party members are going to have to lump it.

    It's impossible to tell if the issue was Starmer or Reeves but the winter fuel allowance showed a complete lack of political antennae, thought and daring.

    Now granted I would have been putting 2-3p on income tax but it would have raised a shed load of money from April 2025 and that would have avoided all the problems that she then created by hitting employer NI the way she did.

    So yes Reeves needs to go so Burnham starts with a fresh slate..
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 51,392
    If Burnham has any respect whatsoever for my betting book - which he damn well should - he will be going for a strong silent type, ie Pat McFadden.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,780
    Wikipedia says that there are nine declared candidates for Clacton - if I understand this Commons briefing note we'd expect to have a statement of persons nominated before Burnham becomes PM.

    Ah, that's who Luke Worley is. One of the people who've said they'll stand against Farage is Luke Worley, a local who was on Married at First Sight. Oh yes, he was a bit fighty and had to be taken off. I think he might have a chance of finishing ahead of Count Binface.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 129,583
    Bonnie Tyler has died.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,748

    Bingley referendum news:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c8j2n2dxnv2o

    "The small town about to hold a referendum on its future."

    A bit of a condescending headline, mind.

    What is the population? About 18 thousand (according to Wiki). Similar to my own town of Warminster, which I would also describe as a small town.

    I don't see the condescension.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 18,655
    It is very likely to be Ed Miliband.
  • eekeek Posts: 34,466

    Bingley referendum news:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c8j2n2dxnv2o

    "The small town about to hold a referendum on its future."

    A bit of a condescending headline, mind.

    What is the population? About 18 thousand (according to Wiki). Similar to my own town of Warminster, which I would also describe as a small town.

    I don't see the condescension.
    I'm shocked by the idea that 85% of the section 106 money a developer pays for building new homes goes into Bradford's overall pot rather than being spent locally
  • FossFoss Posts: 2,864
    eek said:

    Bingley referendum news:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c8j2n2dxnv2o

    "The small town about to hold a referendum on its future."

    A bit of a condescending headline, mind.

    What is the population? About 18 thousand (according to Wiki). Similar to my own town of Warminster, which I would also describe as a small town.

    I don't see the condescension.
    I'm shocked by the idea that 85% of the section 106 money a developer pays for building new homes goes into Bradford's overall pot rather than being spent locally
    You can understand why people might think developers don’t contribute.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 3,358

    Wikipedia says that there are nine declared candidates for Clacton - if I understand this Commons briefing note we'd expect to have a statement of persons nominated before Burnham becomes PM.

    Ah, that's who Luke Worley is. One of the people who've said they'll stand against Farage is Luke Worley, a local who was on Married at First Sight. Oh yes, he was a bit fighty and had to be taken off. I think he might have a chance of finishing ahead of Count Binface.

    Can't see there being any as yet unpublicized issues with a male contestant from Married at First Sight...
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 60,381

    Bonnie Tyler has died.

    RIP I can still remember her on TOTP back in the 80s singing Total Eclipse Of The Heart, and Holding Out For A Hero.
  • Bingley referendum news:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c8j2n2dxnv2o

    "The small town about to hold a referendum on its future."

    A bit of a condescending headline, mind.

    These local development areas are approved after a hell of a lot of work but then they are invariably swamped by the Local Development Plan and when this comes up for renewal in 2038 it will be quietly forgotten. Those who make a fortunate out of the Town and Country Planning Acts make sure they fail in the same way as the same people with different hats tried to make Brexit fail. Really it is an Establishment issue, unique to England.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 40,382

    Bonnie Tyler has died.

    It's a heartache. No really. RIP Gaynor.
  • eekeek Posts: 34,466
    Assuming this Guardian article has some texts to back it up https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jul/09/reform-activists-manchester-farage-clacton-byelection-contest?CMP=bsky_gu

    How scared is Farage about losing Clacton - there would still be 1/2 weeks after Manchester to campaign in Clacton. This seems to imply that it's a binary choice and the bin could win...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 43,656
    @WilliamHill

    It is more likely for Count Binface to win the Clacton By-election (7/2) than it is for England to win the World Cup (9/2) 🤯
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 40,382
    Honest Bobby J. sitting in for James O' Brexit on LBC today.

    I despise the man with a passion, but he is very good. I can't help thinking you Tories missed a trick dumping him for Badenoch. Now, he is never going to get my vote but on current narrative, neither would she.

    He's very angry about Burnham not calling an election. Did he call one when he left the Tories?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 62,365
    Scott_xP said:

    @WilliamHill

    It is more likely for Count Binface to win the Clacton By-election (7/2) than it is for England to win the World Cup (9/2) 🤯

    Bin for the Win! 🗑️

    Can’t help thinking 7/2 is a little short though, obviously weight of money in the last 24 hours.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,780
    Dopermean said:

    Wikipedia says that there are nine declared candidates for Clacton - if I understand this Commons briefing note we'd expect to have a statement of persons nominated before Burnham becomes PM.

    Ah, that's who Luke Worley is. One of the people who've said they'll stand against Farage is Luke Worley, a local who was on Married at First Sight. Oh yes, he was a bit fighty and had to be taken off. I think he might have a chance of finishing ahead of Count Binface.

    Can't see there being any as yet unpublicized issues with a male contestant from Married at First Sight...
    I watched all the UK series, except the 2025 one, and I wouldn't have had this guy in my top quartile of problematic male contestants, despite the issue with the fightiness and being asked to leave the show. But I guess it is hard to know. Bearing in mind that there is a candidate declared from the fascist British Democrats, and the track record of the far-right in terms of domestic violence, I'd say that he's not the most likely declared candidate to have that sort of issue.

    As an aside, at the moment there are no female candidates declared, though Rejoin EU and the Monster Raving Loonies have both said they intend to stand a candidate, but haven't given a name yet. So the by-election could end up being Farage's Vanity Sausage Fest.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 25,763

    Bingley referendum news:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c8j2n2dxnv2o

    "The small town about to hold a referendum on its future."

    A bit of a condescending headline, mind.

    What is the population? About 18 thousand (according to Wiki). Similar to my own town of Warminster, which I would also describe as a small town.

    I don't see the condescension.
    They could have gone with "West Yorkshire town".

    To me, the headline implies "Even an insignificant place like Bingley gets to hold a referendum. How quaint."

    Anyhow, I shall be spoiling my ballot. The local Punjabi community* will be doing likewise.


    *Wor Lass.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 6,093
    edited 9:39AM

    Bonnie Tyler has died.

    It's a heartache. No really. RIP Gaynor.
    Great singer, shame about the ozone layer...
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,780
    edited 9:42AM
    eek said:

    Assuming this Guardian article has some texts to back it up https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jul/09/reform-activists-manchester-farage-clacton-byelection-contest?CMP=bsky_gu

    How scared is Farage about losing Clacton - there would still be 1/2 weeks after Manchester to campaign in Clacton. This seems to imply that it's a binary choice and the bin could win...

    The Guardian say:

    "At present, only the novelty candidate Count Binface and the former actor Laurence Fox, leader of the rightwing Reclaim party, have announced they will stand against Farage."

    Meanwhile Wikipedia have:

    "Farage announced that he would stand again for Reform UK in the by-election as part of his resignation speech.[1] Count Binface, a novelty and perennial candidate portrayed by a comedian, announced his intention to stand, and the Monster Raving Loony Party, a satirical party, announced their intention to field a candidate.[25] Reclaim Party leader Laurence Fox also announced via X (formerly Twitter) that he would stand, seeking to "elevate the Fight on the Right", according to The Independent.[25] Rejoin EU announced via X that they were looking for a candidate to stand in the election.[26] Adham Alkhatip announced that they would stand for the Forward Party.[27] Ollie Granger, a television professional, has announced that he was seeking to stand as an independent candidate.[28] The British Democrats announced they were standing candidate Kai Stephens.[29][non-primary source needed] Former reality TV star Luke Worley announced he would stand as an independent [30]"

    Even complete with references so that a person can check their sources (the Guardian is awful about linking to sources). Remember when we used to ridicule papers that used Wikipedia as a source? And now it would improve their reporting if they used Wikipedia rather than relying solely on twitter (although one of the declarations they missed is from twitter). Even one of the Wikipedia sources is a BBC article!

    I don't think Farage is that worried about losing, but I do think that he'd find a record low turnout and receiving four figures of votes embarrassing, and he wants to make sure turnout is encouraged. I'd guess the key period for postal votes would probably be before polling day in Greater Manchester?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 10,233

    Bonnie Tyler has died.

    Total Eclipse of the Heart - one of the best songs ever.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fSeFxzeo5Ts
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 81,293
    eek said:

    Given 10 named options and the ability to pick only 1 - 21% is not failure your headline makes it out to be.

    What I find surprising is that 20% want Rachel to remain there...

    I'm truly shocked that TSE has been cheeky with numbers in a threader.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 37,639

    eek said:

    Assuming this Guardian article has some texts to back it up https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jul/09/reform-activists-manchester-farage-clacton-byelection-contest?CMP=bsky_gu

    How scared is Farage about losing Clacton - there would still be 1/2 weeks after Manchester to campaign in Clacton. This seems to imply that it's a binary choice and the bin could win...

    The Guardian say:

    "At present, only the novelty candidate Count Binface and the former actor Laurence Fox, leader of the rightwing Reclaim party, have announced they will stand against Farage."

    Meanwhile Wikipedia have:

    "Farage announced that he would stand again for Reform UK in the by-election as part of his resignation speech.[1] Count Binface, a novelty and perennial candidate portrayed by a comedian, announced his intention to stand, and the Monster Raving Loony Party, a satirical party, announced their intention to field a candidate.[25] Reclaim Party leader Laurence Fox also announced via X (formerly Twitter) that he would stand, seeking to "elevate the Fight on the Right", according to The Independent.[25] Rejoin EU announced via X that they were looking for a candidate to stand in the election.[26] Adham Alkhatip announced that they would stand for the Forward Party.[27] Ollie Granger, a television professional, has announced that he was seeking to stand as an independent candidate.[28] The British Democrats announced they were standing candidate Kai Stephens.[29][non-primary source needed] Former reality TV star Luke Worley announced he would stand as an independent [30]"

    Even complete with references so that a person can check their sources (the Guardian is awful about linking to sources). Remember when we used to ridicule papers that used Wikipedia as a source? And now it would improve their reporting if they used Wikipedia rather than relying solely on twitter (although one of the declarations they missed is from twitter). Even one of the Wikipedia sources is a BBC article!

    I don't think Farage is that worried about losing, but I do think that he'd find a record low turnout and receiving four figures of votes embarrassing, and he wants to make sure turnout is encouraged. I'd guess the key period for postal votes would probably be before polling day in Greater Manchester?
    If I were a seafront trader in the Clacton and Walton areas I'd be very annoyed at a host of election candidates taking up parking spaces etc. during the height of summer. And if I lived in Frinton I'd be very upset at my lovely hot summer being disturbed by electioneering.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 129,583
    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    Given 10 named options and the ability to pick only 1 - 21% is not failure your headline makes it out to be.

    What I find surprising is that 20% want Rachel to remain there...

    I'm truly shocked that TSE has been cheeky with numbers in a threader.
    I didn't want to be accused of talking up my own book.

    Have I ever mentioned I tipped Ed Miliband to be next Chancellor at 33/1?

    https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2025/12/20/ed-miliband-is-33-1-to-be-the-next-chancellor/
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 15,554
    kinabalu said:

    If Burnham has any respect whatsoever for my betting book - which he damn well should - he will be going for a strong silent type, ie Pat McFadden.

    Isn’t your book your politicalbets making the mistake seeing Labour as all on the same side, not factionally split? McFad and Red Ed are actually in completely different factions how Labour should do economics if in power - I ask you to remember, when Ed so narrowly bested David, Neil Kinnock in his horrid off over exuberant style, telling the world “WE’VE GOT OUR PARTY BACK.”

    Factions may appoint leaders of other factions to top jobs, but keep them away from the economics, so your own faction controls the economics. If a leader had to appoint someone from rival faction Chancellor - like Burnham appoint Reeves, like Liz Truss have Hunt foisted upon her - its actually sign of weakness of their grip on the party.

    The poll TSE has put in the header should be viewed by us as evidence of a divided, factionally split party. Economically split between left and right, as always been Labours DNA, but also factional splits based on ambitious personalities having little mafia of friends and supporters around them.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 37,020
    edited 9:58AM
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @WilliamHill

    It is more likely for Count Binface to win the Clacton By-election (7/2) than it is for England to win the World Cup (9/2) 🤯

    Bin for the Win! 🗑️

    Can’t help thinking 7/2 is a little short though, obviously weight of money in the last 24 hours.
    The price on Farage is 1/6 or shorter which might technically be value but bookies routinely turn away the large stakes needed for any notable winnings, and will deter more sophisticated punters aware of the time value of money and so will not bet until the day before.

    What might take bookies by surprise is ordinary punters including Farage in multiple bets but even that is hard now that most betting is online (even in shops via terminals).

    ETA Hills also ignore that most of their rivals have Count Binface at 9/2 or 5/1 against. Hills' 7/2 is the shortest price in the village. Reform 1/6 the longest.
    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/clacton-by-election
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,875
    Mmm.
    It seems Reform are now abandoning GM.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jul/09/reform-activists-manchester-farage-clacton-byelection-contest

    I was frequently assured Burnham standing for Parliament was handing GM to Reform.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 40,382
    dixiedean said:

    Mmm.
    It seems Reform are now abandoning GM.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jul/09/reform-activists-manchester-farage-clacton-byelection-contest

    I was frequently assured Burnham standing for Parliament was handing GM to Reform.

    A few weeks ago it looked like that was the case. A week is a long time in crypto- grifting.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 40,382
    edited 10:09AM
    There is a wall and floor covering specialist in Llantwit Major who goes by the name of "the Bonny Tiler".
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 5,629

    Ed leader: "All wings report in"

    Ed 10: "Ed Ten standing by."

    Ed 7: "Ed Seven standing by."

    Ed 3: "Ed Three standing by."

    Ed Four: "Ed Four standing by."

    Ed Six: "Ed Six standing by."

    Ed 9: "Ed Nine standing by."

    Ed 2: "Ed Two standing by."

    Ed 11: "Ed Eleven standing by."

    Ed 5: "Ed Five standing by."

    Another comment that needs an 'Eh?' button.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 5,629

    Dopermean said:

    Wikipedia says that there are nine declared candidates for Clacton - if I understand this Commons briefing note we'd expect to have a statement of persons nominated before Burnham becomes PM.

    Ah, that's who Luke Worley is. One of the people who've said they'll stand against Farage is Luke Worley, a local who was on Married at First Sight. Oh yes, he was a bit fighty and had to be taken off. I think he might have a chance of finishing ahead of Count Binface.

    Can't see there being any as yet unpublicized issues with a male contestant from Married at First Sight...
    I watched all the UK series, except the 2025 one, and I wouldn't have had this guy in my top quartile of problematic male contestants, despite the issue with the fightiness and being asked to leave the show. But I guess it is hard to know. Bearing in mind that there is a candidate declared from the fascist British Democrats, and the track record of the far-right in terms of domestic violence, I'd say that he's not the most likely declared candidate to have that sort of issue.

    As an aside, at the moment there are no female candidates declared, though Rejoin EU and the Monster Raving Loonies have both said they intend to stand a candidate, but haven't given a name yet. So the by-election could end up being Farage's Vanity Sausage Fest.
    Are there any female Monster Raving Loonies? I'd always imaged that to be a male preserve.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 37,020
    AnneJGP said:

    Ed leader: "All wings report in"

    Ed 10: "Ed Ten standing by."

    Ed 7: "Ed Seven standing by."

    Ed 3: "Ed Three standing by."

    Ed Four: "Ed Four standing by."

    Ed Six: "Ed Six standing by."

    Ed 9: "Ed Nine standing by."

    Ed 2: "Ed Two standing by."

    Ed 11: "Ed Eleven standing by."

    Ed 5: "Ed Five standing by."

    Another comment that needs an 'Eh?' button.
    It looks like a film quote. Dambusters? Star Wars? On pb the film is usually Die Hard but it's still almost six months to Christmas.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 8,271
    AnneJGP said:

    Dopermean said:

    Wikipedia says that there are nine declared candidates for Clacton - if I understand this Commons briefing note we'd expect to have a statement of persons nominated before Burnham becomes PM.

    Ah, that's who Luke Worley is. One of the people who've said they'll stand against Farage is Luke Worley, a local who was on Married at First Sight. Oh yes, he was a bit fighty and had to be taken off. I think he might have a chance of finishing ahead of Count Binface.

    Can't see there being any as yet unpublicized issues with a male contestant from Married at First Sight...
    I watched all the UK series, except the 2025 one, and I wouldn't have had this guy in my top quartile of problematic male contestants, despite the issue with the fightiness and being asked to leave the show. But I guess it is hard to know. Bearing in mind that there is a candidate declared from the fascist British Democrats, and the track record of the far-right in terms of domestic violence, I'd say that he's not the most likely declared candidate to have that sort of issue.

    As an aside, at the moment there are no female candidates declared, though Rejoin EU and the Monster Raving Loonies have both said they intend to stand a candidate, but haven't given a name yet. So the by-election could end up being Farage's Vanity Sausage Fest.
    Are there any female Monster Raving Loonies? I'd always imaged that to be a male preserve.
    Liz Truss, but she’s not a party member.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 37,020
    AnneJGP said:

    Dopermean said:

    Wikipedia says that there are nine declared candidates for Clacton - if I understand this Commons briefing note we'd expect to have a statement of persons nominated before Burnham becomes PM.

    Ah, that's who Luke Worley is. One of the people who've said they'll stand against Farage is Luke Worley, a local who was on Married at First Sight. Oh yes, he was a bit fighty and had to be taken off. I think he might have a chance of finishing ahead of Count Binface.

    Can't see there being any as yet unpublicized issues with a male contestant from Married at First Sight...
    I watched all the UK series, except the 2025 one, and I wouldn't have had this guy in my top quartile of problematic male contestants, despite the issue with the fightiness and being asked to leave the show. But I guess it is hard to know. Bearing in mind that there is a candidate declared from the fascist British Democrats, and the track record of the far-right in terms of domestic violence, I'd say that he's not the most likely declared candidate to have that sort of issue.

    As an aside, at the moment there are no female candidates declared, though Rejoin EU and the Monster Raving Loonies have both said they intend to stand a candidate, but haven't given a name yet. So the by-election could end up being Farage's Vanity Sausage Fest.
    Are there any female Monster Raving Loonies? I'd always imaged that to be a male preserve.
    We used to have a PB MRLP rep but he's left and now Count Binface has stolen their act.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 37,370
    Barnesian said:

    Bonnie Tyler has died.

    Total Eclipse of the Heart - one of the best songs ever.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fSeFxzeo5Ts
    Er... no, it's not. Nothing like.

    Good song but not even near the top 100.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 64,218
    AnneJGP said:

    Ed leader: "All wings report in"

    Ed 10: "Ed Ten standing by."

    Ed 7: "Ed Seven standing by."

    Ed 3: "Ed Three standing by."

    Ed Four: "Ed Four standing by."

    Ed Six: "Ed Six standing by."

    Ed 9: "Ed Nine standing by."

    Ed 2: "Ed Two standing by."

    Ed 11: "Ed Eleven standing by."

    Ed 5: "Ed Five standing by."

    Another comment that needs an 'Eh?' button.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eEeTWVru1qc
  • eekeek Posts: 34,466
    dixiedean said:

    Mmm.
    It seems Reform are now abandoning GM.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jul/09/reform-activists-manchester-farage-clacton-byelection-contest

    I was frequently assured Burnham standing for Parliament was handing GM to Reform.

    I read it as Farage worrying about Clacton but it could equally be 2 weeks of canvassing in Manchester has shown that they have no chance of winning so time to give up...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 37,370
    AnneJGP said:

    Ed leader: "All wings report in"

    Ed 10: "Ed Ten standing by."

    Ed 7: "Ed Seven standing by."

    Ed 3: "Ed Three standing by."

    Ed Four: "Ed Four standing by."

    Ed Six: "Ed Six standing by."

    Ed 9: "Ed Nine standing by."

    Ed 2: "Ed Two standing by."

    Ed 11: "Ed Eleven standing by."

    Ed 5: "Ed Five standing by."

    Another comment that needs an 'Eh?' button.
    This is Sunil's little repeating joke, a long film quote that no one else can place, battered around to try to make it fit a current event.

    Harmless if somewhat odd.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,960
    dixiedean said:

    Mmm.
    It seems Reform are now abandoning GM.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jul/09/reform-activists-manchester-farage-clacton-byelection-contest

    I was frequently assured Burnham standing for Parliament was handing GM to Reform.

    I was very puzzled for a moment as to why Reform should row back on genetic modification.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 37,370

    AnneJGP said:

    Dopermean said:

    Wikipedia says that there are nine declared candidates for Clacton - if I understand this Commons briefing note we'd expect to have a statement of persons nominated before Burnham becomes PM.

    Ah, that's who Luke Worley is. One of the people who've said they'll stand against Farage is Luke Worley, a local who was on Married at First Sight. Oh yes, he was a bit fighty and had to be taken off. I think he might have a chance of finishing ahead of Count Binface.

    Can't see there being any as yet unpublicized issues with a male contestant from Married at First Sight...
    I watched all the UK series, except the 2025 one, and I wouldn't have had this guy in my top quartile of problematic male contestants, despite the issue with the fightiness and being asked to leave the show. But I guess it is hard to know. Bearing in mind that there is a candidate declared from the fascist British Democrats, and the track record of the far-right in terms of domestic violence, I'd say that he's not the most likely declared candidate to have that sort of issue.

    As an aside, at the moment there are no female candidates declared, though Rejoin EU and the Monster Raving Loonies have both said they intend to stand a candidate, but haven't given a name yet. So the by-election could end up being Farage's Vanity Sausage Fest.
    Are there any female Monster Raving Loonies? I'd always imaged that to be a male preserve.
    Liz Truss, but she’s not a party member.
    Unfair on Liz. She's not a monster, just... Well, you get it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,960
    edited 10:26AM

    AnneJGP said:

    Ed leader: "All wings report in"

    Ed 10: "Ed Ten standing by."

    Ed 7: "Ed Seven standing by."

    Ed 3: "Ed Three standing by."

    Ed Four: "Ed Four standing by."

    Ed Six: "Ed Six standing by."

    Ed 9: "Ed Nine standing by."

    Ed 2: "Ed Two standing by."

    Ed 11: "Ed Eleven standing by."

    Ed 5: "Ed Five standing by."

    Another comment that needs an 'Eh?' button.
    This is Sunil's little repeating joke, a long film quote that no one else can place, battered around to try to make it fit a current event.

    Harmless if somewhat odd.
    You can’t place a quote from Star Wars??!!!!

    Edit - although in the context is he saying Ed is Red?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,960

    AnneJGP said:

    Dopermean said:

    Wikipedia says that there are nine declared candidates for Clacton - if I understand this Commons briefing note we'd expect to have a statement of persons nominated before Burnham becomes PM.

    Ah, that's who Luke Worley is. One of the people who've said they'll stand against Farage is Luke Worley, a local who was on Married at First Sight. Oh yes, he was a bit fighty and had to be taken off. I think he might have a chance of finishing ahead of Count Binface.

    Can't see there being any as yet unpublicized issues with a male contestant from Married at First Sight...
    I watched all the UK series, except the 2025 one, and I wouldn't have had this guy in my top quartile of problematic male contestants, despite the issue with the fightiness and being asked to leave the show. But I guess it is hard to know. Bearing in mind that there is a candidate declared from the fascist British Democrats, and the track record of the far-right in terms of domestic violence, I'd say that he's not the most likely declared candidate to have that sort of issue.

    As an aside, at the moment there are no female candidates declared, though Rejoin EU and the Monster Raving Loonies have both said they intend to stand a candidate, but haven't given a name yet. So the by-election could end up being Farage's Vanity Sausage Fest.
    Are there any female Monster Raving Loonies? I'd always imaged that to be a male preserve.
    We used to have a PB MRLP rep but he's left and now Count Binface has stolen their act.
    I thought in his most recent incarnation he was fully Reform?

    Appropriate for a man with his memoirs that he joined many other fukkers…
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 37,370
    ydoethur said:

    dixiedean said:

    Mmm.
    It seems Reform are now abandoning GM.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jul/09/reform-activists-manchester-farage-clacton-byelection-contest

    I was frequently assured Burnham standing for Parliament was handing GM to Reform.

    I was very puzzled for a moment as to why Reform should row back on genetic modification.
    Oh god, that's conjured up image of them manipulating the genes of furriners to turn them into model English people.

    Eugenics meets genetic modification.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,960

    eek said:

    Assuming this Guardian article has some texts to back it up https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jul/09/reform-activists-manchester-farage-clacton-byelection-contest?CMP=bsky_gu

    How scared is Farage about losing Clacton - there would still be 1/2 weeks after Manchester to campaign in Clacton. This seems to imply that it's a binary choice and the bin could win...

    The Guardian say:

    "At present, only the novelty candidate Count Binface and the former actor Laurence Fox, leader of the rightwing Reclaim party, have announced they will stand against Farage."

    Meanwhile Wikipedia have:

    "Farage announced that he would stand again for Reform UK in the by-election as part of his resignation speech.[1] Count Binface, a novelty and perennial candidate portrayed by a comedian, announced his intention to stand, and the Monster Raving Loony Party, a satirical party, announced their intention to field a candidate.[25] Reclaim Party leader Laurence Fox also announced via X (formerly Twitter) that he would stand, seeking to "elevate the Fight on the Right", according to The Independent.[25] Rejoin EU announced via X that they were looking for a candidate to stand in the election.[26] Adham Alkhatip announced that they would stand for the Forward Party.[27] Ollie Granger, a television professional, has announced that he was seeking to stand as an independent candidate.[28] The British Democrats announced they were standing candidate Kai Stephens.[29][non-primary source needed] Former reality TV star Luke Worley announced he would stand as an independent [30]"

    Even complete with references so that a person can check their sources (the Guardian is awful about linking to sources). Remember when we used to ridicule papers that used Wikipedia as a source? And now it would improve their reporting if they used Wikipedia rather than relying solely on twitter (although one of the declarations they missed is from twitter). Even one of the Wikipedia sources is a BBC article!

    I don't think Farage is that worried about losing, but I do think that he'd find a record low turnout and receiving four figures of votes embarrassing, and he wants to make sure turnout is encouraged. I'd guess the key period for postal votes would probably be before polling day in Greater Manchester?
    If I were a seafront trader in the Clacton and Walton areas I'd be very annoyed at a host of election candidates taking up parking spaces etc. during the height of summer. And if I lived in Frinton I'd be very upset at my lovely hot summer being disturbed by electioneering.
    Would you? I’d be expecting this to be their best summer season in decades.

    Canvassers. Media. Ordinary people coming out to see what all the fuss is about.

    It’s traders in Southend will be sobbing into their pints.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,960

    ydoethur said:

    dixiedean said:

    Mmm.
    It seems Reform are now abandoning GM.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jul/09/reform-activists-manchester-farage-clacton-byelection-contest

    I was frequently assured Burnham standing for Parliament was handing GM to Reform.

    I was very puzzled for a moment as to why Reform should row back on genetic modification.
    Oh god, that's conjured up image of them manipulating the genes of furriners to turn them into model English people.

    Eugenics meets genetic modification.
    Count Binface, vs some kind of space alien.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 6,093
    edited 10:33AM

    AnneJGP said:

    Ed leader: "All wings report in"

    Ed 10: "Ed Ten standing by."

    Ed 7: "Ed Seven standing by."

    Ed 3: "Ed Three standing by."

    Ed Four: "Ed Four standing by."

    Ed Six: "Ed Six standing by."

    Ed 9: "Ed Nine standing by."

    Ed 2: "Ed Two standing by."

    Ed 11: "Ed Eleven standing by."

    Ed 5: "Ed Five standing by."

    Another comment that needs an 'Eh?' button.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eEeTWVru1qc
    Dambusters wasn't far off.

    Although I think 633 Squadron was the closest match to the Death Star sequence?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 37,370
    edited 10:33AM
    ydoethur said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Ed leader: "All wings report in"

    Ed 10: "Ed Ten standing by."

    Ed 7: "Ed Seven standing by."

    Ed 3: "Ed Three standing by."

    Ed Four: "Ed Four standing by."

    Ed Six: "Ed Six standing by."

    Ed 9: "Ed Nine standing by."

    Ed 2: "Ed Two standing by."

    Ed 11: "Ed Eleven standing by."

    Ed 5: "Ed Five standing by."

    Another comment that needs an 'Eh?' button.
    This is Sunil's little repeating joke, a long film quote that no one else can place, battered around to try to make it fit a current event.

    Harmless if somewhat odd.
    You can’t place a quote from Star Wars??!!!!

    Edit - although in the context is he saying Ed is Red?
    I can't. Nor could others judging by the earlier posts.

    Airplane is one for the few films I remember lots of quotes from, bizarrely.

    Surely you can't be serious, I hear you say...
  • PJHPJH Posts: 1,168

    eek said:

    Assuming this Guardian article has some texts to back it up https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jul/09/reform-activists-manchester-farage-clacton-byelection-contest?CMP=bsky_gu

    How scared is Farage about losing Clacton - there would still be 1/2 weeks after Manchester to campaign in Clacton. This seems to imply that it's a binary choice and the bin could win...

    The Guardian say:

    "At present, only the novelty candidate Count Binface and the former actor Laurence Fox, leader of the rightwing Reclaim party, have announced they will stand against Farage."

    Meanwhile Wikipedia have:

    "Farage announced that he would stand again for Reform UK in the by-election as part of his resignation speech.[1] Count Binface, a novelty and perennial candidate portrayed by a comedian, announced his intention to stand, and the Monster Raving Loony Party, a satirical party, announced their intention to field a candidate.[25] Reclaim Party leader Laurence Fox also announced via X (formerly Twitter) that he would stand, seeking to "elevate the Fight on the Right", according to The Independent.[25] Rejoin EU announced via X that they were looking for a candidate to stand in the election.[26] Adham Alkhatip announced that they would stand for the Forward Party.[27] Ollie Granger, a television professional, has announced that he was seeking to stand as an independent candidate.[28] The British Democrats announced they were standing candidate Kai Stephens.[29][non-primary source needed] Former reality TV star Luke Worley announced he would stand as an independent [30]"

    Even complete with references so that a person can check their sources (the Guardian is awful about linking to sources). Remember when we used to ridicule papers that used Wikipedia as a source? And now it would improve their reporting if they used Wikipedia rather than relying solely on twitter (although one of the declarations they missed is from twitter). Even one of the Wikipedia sources is a BBC article!

    I don't think Farage is that worried about losing, but I do think that he'd find a record low turnout and receiving four figures of votes embarrassing, and he wants to make sure turnout is encouraged. I'd guess the key period for postal votes would probably be before polling day in Greater Manchester?
    If I were a seafront trader in the Clacton and Walton areas I'd be very annoyed at a host of election candidates taking up parking spaces etc. during the height of summer. And if I lived in Frinton I'd be very upset at my lovely hot summer being disturbed by electioneering.
    If you lived in Frinton, you'd be upset about almost any activity whatsoever. It's their USP. They really are all up their bum over everything there.

    FWIW I much prefer Walton. Of the three main places in the constituency I'd choose to live there - nice enough, no airs and graces, decent beach. Clacton I find a bit of a dive though the beach is quite good. The last time I was there I stood out because I was about 10 tattoos short of the average.

    More seriously, what all three places have is an overabundance of just about comfortable but not wealthy pensioners, who'd like the world returned to the imagined perfection of their 1950s and 1960s childhoods. The sorts of people who have moved away from Romford because it 'ain't what is used to be'. There is poverty, not just in Jaywick but also in parts of Clacton, but also a lot of people doing average sorts of jobs on not especially good money who aren't necessarily as uniform or as firmly behind Reform as the pensioner bloc vote.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,960

    ydoethur said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Ed leader: "All wings report in"

    Ed 10: "Ed Ten standing by."

    Ed 7: "Ed Seven standing by."

    Ed 3: "Ed Three standing by."

    Ed Four: "Ed Four standing by."

    Ed Six: "Ed Six standing by."

    Ed 9: "Ed Nine standing by."

    Ed 2: "Ed Two standing by."

    Ed 11: "Ed Eleven standing by."

    Ed 5: "Ed Five standing by."

    Another comment that needs an 'Eh?' button.
    This is Sunil's little repeating joke, a long film quote that no one else can place, battered around to try to make it fit a current event.

    Harmless if somewhat odd.
    You can’t place a quote from Star Wars??!!!!

    Edit - although in the context is he saying Ed is Red?
    I can't. Nor could others judging by the earlier posts.

    Airplane is one for the few films I remember lots of quotes from, bizarrely.

    Surely you can't be serious, I hear you say...
    I am serious.

    And don’t call me Shirley!
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 37,020
    ydoethur said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Dopermean said:

    Wikipedia says that there are nine declared candidates for Clacton - if I understand this Commons briefing note we'd expect to have a statement of persons nominated before Burnham becomes PM.

    Ah, that's who Luke Worley is. One of the people who've said they'll stand against Farage is Luke Worley, a local who was on Married at First Sight. Oh yes, he was a bit fighty and had to be taken off. I think he might have a chance of finishing ahead of Count Binface.

    Can't see there being any as yet unpublicized issues with a male contestant from Married at First Sight...
    I watched all the UK series, except the 2025 one, and I wouldn't have had this guy in my top quartile of problematic male contestants, despite the issue with the fightiness and being asked to leave the show. But I guess it is hard to know. Bearing in mind that there is a candidate declared from the fascist British Democrats, and the track record of the far-right in terms of domestic violence, I'd say that he's not the most likely declared candidate to have that sort of issue.

    As an aside, at the moment there are no female candidates declared, though Rejoin EU and the Monster Raving Loonies have both said they intend to stand a candidate, but haven't given a name yet. So the by-election could end up being Farage's Vanity Sausage Fest.
    Are there any female Monster Raving Loonies? I'd always imaged that to be a male preserve.
    We used to have a PB MRLP rep but he's left and now Count Binface has stolen their act.
    I thought in his most recent incarnation he was fully Reform?

    Appropriate for a man with his memoirs that he joined many other fukkers…
    Not sure. @JohnLoony joined the Conservatives which might explain a lot.
    https://www.yourlocalguardian.co.uk/news/10333327.Monster_Raving_Loony_becomes_a_Conservative/

    He was good value on pb as he'd experienced a lot of campaigns and counts on the losing side so knew how the system worked.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,673

    ydoethur said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Ed leader: "All wings report in"

    Ed 10: "Ed Ten standing by."

    Ed 7: "Ed Seven standing by."

    Ed 3: "Ed Three standing by."

    Ed Four: "Ed Four standing by."

    Ed Six: "Ed Six standing by."

    Ed 9: "Ed Nine standing by."

    Ed 2: "Ed Two standing by."

    Ed 11: "Ed Eleven standing by."

    Ed 5: "Ed Five standing by."

    Another comment that needs an 'Eh?' button.
    This is Sunil's little repeating joke, a long film quote that no one else can place, battered around to try to make it fit a current event.

    Harmless if somewhat odd.
    You can’t place a quote from Star Wars??!!!!

    Edit - although in the context is he saying Ed is Red?
    I can't. Nor could others judging by the earlier posts.

    Airplane is one for the few films I remember lots of quotes from, bizarrely.

    Surely you can't be serious, I hear you say...
    There is no stopping in the red zone
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 64,218

    AnneJGP said:

    Ed leader: "All wings report in"

    Ed 10: "Ed Ten standing by."

    Ed 7: "Ed Seven standing by."

    Ed 3: "Ed Three standing by."

    Ed Four: "Ed Four standing by."

    Ed Six: "Ed Six standing by."

    Ed 9: "Ed Nine standing by."

    Ed 2: "Ed Two standing by."

    Ed 11: "Ed Eleven standing by."

    Ed 5: "Ed Five standing by."

    Another comment that needs an 'Eh?' button.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eEeTWVru1qc
    Dambusters wasn't far off.

    Although I think 633 Squadron was the closest match to the Death Star sequence?
    IIRC for an early presentation of Star Wars to studio executives, before the special effects were done, they used footage from 633 Squadron to stand in for the trench run.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 8,271
    PJH said:

    eek said:

    Assuming this Guardian article has some texts to back it up https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jul/09/reform-activists-manchester-farage-clacton-byelection-contest?CMP=bsky_gu

    How scared is Farage about losing Clacton - there would still be 1/2 weeks after Manchester to campaign in Clacton. This seems to imply that it's a binary choice and the bin could win...

    The Guardian say:

    "At present, only the novelty candidate Count Binface and the former actor Laurence Fox, leader of the rightwing Reclaim party, have announced they will stand against Farage."

    Meanwhile Wikipedia have:

    "Farage announced that he would stand again for Reform UK in the by-election as part of his resignation speech.[1] Count Binface, a novelty and perennial candidate portrayed by a comedian, announced his intention to stand, and the Monster Raving Loony Party, a satirical party, announced their intention to field a candidate.[25] Reclaim Party leader Laurence Fox also announced via X (formerly Twitter) that he would stand, seeking to "elevate the Fight on the Right", according to The Independent.[25] Rejoin EU announced via X that they were looking for a candidate to stand in the election.[26] Adham Alkhatip announced that they would stand for the Forward Party.[27] Ollie Granger, a television professional, has announced that he was seeking to stand as an independent candidate.[28] The British Democrats announced they were standing candidate Kai Stephens.[29][non-primary source needed] Former reality TV star Luke Worley announced he would stand as an independent [30]"

    Even complete with references so that a person can check their sources (the Guardian is awful about linking to sources). Remember when we used to ridicule papers that used Wikipedia as a source? And now it would improve their reporting if they used Wikipedia rather than relying solely on twitter (although one of the declarations they missed is from twitter). Even one of the Wikipedia sources is a BBC article!

    I don't think Farage is that worried about losing, but I do think that he'd find a record low turnout and receiving four figures of votes embarrassing, and he wants to make sure turnout is encouraged. I'd guess the key period for postal votes would probably be before polling day in Greater Manchester?
    If I were a seafront trader in the Clacton and Walton areas I'd be very annoyed at a host of election candidates taking up parking spaces etc. during the height of summer. And if I lived in Frinton I'd be very upset at my lovely hot summer being disturbed by electioneering.
    If you lived in Frinton, you'd be upset about almost any activity whatsoever. It's their USP. They really are all up their bum over everything there.

    FWIW I much prefer Walton. Of the three main places in the constituency I'd choose to live there - nice enough, no airs and graces, decent beach. Clacton I find a bit of a dive though the beach is quite good. The last time I was there I stood out because I was about 10 tattoos short of the average.

    More seriously, what all three places have is an overabundance of just about comfortable but not wealthy pensioners, who'd like the world returned to the imagined perfection of their 1950s and 1960s childhoods. The sorts of people who have moved away from Romford because it 'ain't what is used to be'. There is poverty, not just in Jaywick but also in parts of Clacton, but also a lot of people doing average sorts of jobs on not especially good money who aren't necessarily as uniform or as firmly behind Reform as the pensioner bloc vote.
    The best thing that could happen as a result of the attention on Clacton would be if serious money was spent helping Jaywick.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 25,763

    AnneJGP said:

    Dopermean said:

    Wikipedia says that there are nine declared candidates for Clacton - if I understand this Commons briefing note we'd expect to have a statement of persons nominated before Burnham becomes PM.

    Ah, that's who Luke Worley is. One of the people who've said they'll stand against Farage is Luke Worley, a local who was on Married at First Sight. Oh yes, he was a bit fighty and had to be taken off. I think he might have a chance of finishing ahead of Count Binface.

    Can't see there being any as yet unpublicized issues with a male contestant from Married at First Sight...
    I watched all the UK series, except the 2025 one, and I wouldn't have had this guy in my top quartile of problematic male contestants, despite the issue with the fightiness and being asked to leave the show. But I guess it is hard to know. Bearing in mind that there is a candidate declared from the fascist British Democrats, and the track record of the far-right in terms of domestic violence, I'd say that he's not the most likely declared candidate to have that sort of issue.

    As an aside, at the moment there are no female candidates declared, though Rejoin EU and the Monster Raving Loonies have both said they intend to stand a candidate, but haven't given a name yet. So the by-election could end up being Farage's Vanity Sausage Fest.
    Are there any female Monster Raving Loonies? I'd always imaged that to be a male preserve.
    We used to have a PB MRLP rep but he's left and now Count Binface has stolen their act.
    He defected and joined the Conservatives.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 64,218

    Barnesian said:

    Bonnie Tyler has died.

    Total Eclipse of the Heart - one of the best songs ever.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fSeFxzeo5Ts
    Er... no, it's not. Nothing like.

    Good song but not even near the top 100.
    When were you 18?

    I can remember, in the days of pub juke boxes....

    As usual, this defines "the best music"
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 37,020

    AnneJGP said:

    Ed leader: "All wings report in"

    Ed 10: "Ed Ten standing by."

    Ed 7: "Ed Seven standing by."

    Ed 3: "Ed Three standing by."

    Ed Four: "Ed Four standing by."

    Ed Six: "Ed Six standing by."

    Ed 9: "Ed Nine standing by."

    Ed 2: "Ed Two standing by."

    Ed 11: "Ed Eleven standing by."

    Ed 5: "Ed Five standing by."

    Another comment that needs an 'Eh?' button.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eEeTWVru1qc
    Dambusters wasn't far off.

    Although I think 633 Squadron was the closest match to the Death Star sequence?
    IIRC for an early presentation of Star Wars to studio executives, before the special effects were done, they used footage from 633 Squadron to stand in for the trench run.
    Star Wars Origins: The Dam Busters - Side by Side Scene Comparison
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lNdb03Hw18M


  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 10,233
    edited 10:50AM

    AnneJGP said:

    Ed leader: "All wings report in"

    Ed 10: "Ed Ten standing by."

    Ed 7: "Ed Seven standing by."

    Ed 3: "Ed Three standing by."

    Ed Four: "Ed Four standing by."

    Ed Six: "Ed Six standing by."

    Ed 9: "Ed Nine standing by."

    Ed 2: "Ed Two standing by."

    Ed 11: "Ed Eleven standing by."

    Ed 5: "Ed Five standing by."

    Another comment that needs an 'Eh?' button.
    It looks like a film quote. Dambusters? Star Wars? On pb the film is usually Die Hard but it's still almost six months to Christmas.
    Many got there before me
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 64,749
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @WilliamHill

    It is more likely for Count Binface to win the Clacton By-election (7/2) than it is for England to win the World Cup (9/2) 🤯

    Bin for the Win! 🗑️

    Can’t help thinking 7/2 is a little short though, obviously weight of money in the last 24 hours.
    It's massively, absurdly short.

    I would want at least 10-1, and probably more like 15-1 to play.

    Now, if Lowe's lot had stood, it might have been possible: I could see him skewering Farage and peeling off 15% of the Reform vote.

    But without him, there are a bunch of no hopers (including Binface), and it would require something truly extraordinary for him to come through the middle. Not impossible (hence 15-1), but something pretty uncommon.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 10,233
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @WilliamHill

    It is more likely for Count Binface to win the Clacton By-election (7/2) than it is for England to win the World Cup (9/2) 🤯

    Bin for the Win! 🗑️

    Can’t help thinking 7/2 is a little short though, obviously weight of money in the last 24 hours.
    It's massively, absurdly short.

    I would want at least 10-1, and probably more like 15-1 to play.

    Now, if Lowe's lot had stood, it might have been possible: I could see him skewering Farage and peeling off 15% of the Reform vote.

    But without him, there are a bunch of no hopers (including Binface), and it would require something truly extraordinary for him to come through the middle. Not impossible (hence 15-1), but something pretty uncommon.
    When the public get behind a movement, you get Boaty McBoatface.
    It can be done.
  • eekeek Posts: 34,466
    edited 10:56AM
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @WilliamHill

    It is more likely for Count Binface to win the Clacton By-election (7/2) than it is for England to win the World Cup (9/2) 🤯

    Bin for the Win! 🗑️

    Can’t help thinking 7/2 is a little short though, obviously weight of money in the last 24 hours.
    It's massively, absurdly short.

    I would want at least 10-1, and probably more like 15-1 to play.

    Now, if Lowe's lot had stood, it might have been possible: I could see him skewering Farage and peeling off 15% of the Reform vote.

    But without him, there are a bunch of no hopers (including Binface), and it would require something truly extraordinary for him to come through the middle. Not impossible (hence 15-1), but something pretty uncommon.
    A counter argument is that this is going to be a very low turnout election and there are a lot of people who simply don't like Farage but will vote (because they always vote) for the none Farage candidate with a chance of winning.

    For (fairly obvious reasons) Count Binface is that candidate. Add on the fact people will happily play along with a joke and it's possible to see the Count winning.

    You could also argue that without Lowe standing there is no reason to actually go and vote which is why Farage seems desperately trying to get canvassers so he gets people to actually vote.

    Finally I also suspect the Count would do a better job for the people of Clacton than Farage has and he would have a lot of goodwill from the other parties which may allow him to actually achieve something..
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 11,167
    edited 10:55AM
    Mornimg P.B.

    I see that Reform.are now apparently actively diverting away activists from Manchester to Clacton. They must be genuinely worried.
  • FossFoss Posts: 2,864
    Barnesian said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @WilliamHill

    It is more likely for Count Binface to win the Clacton By-election (7/2) than it is for England to win the World Cup (9/2) 🤯

    Bin for the Win! 🗑️

    Can’t help thinking 7/2 is a little short though, obviously weight of money in the last 24 hours.
    It's massively, absurdly short.

    I would want at least 10-1, and probably more like 15-1 to play.

    Now, if Lowe's lot had stood, it might have been possible: I could see him skewering Farage and peeling off 15% of the Reform vote.

    But without him, there are a bunch of no hopers (including Binface), and it would require something truly extraordinary for him to come through the middle. Not impossible (hence 15-1), but something pretty uncommon.
    When the public get behind a movement, you get Boaty McBoatface.
    It can be done.
    The other side to that is that the Clacton demos is not a very meme-social-media demographic.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,673
    Foss said:

    Barnesian said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @WilliamHill

    It is more likely for Count Binface to win the Clacton By-election (7/2) than it is for England to win the World Cup (9/2) 🤯

    Bin for the Win! 🗑️

    Can’t help thinking 7/2 is a little short though, obviously weight of money in the last 24 hours.
    It's massively, absurdly short.

    I would want at least 10-1, and probably more like 15-1 to play.

    Now, if Lowe's lot had stood, it might have been possible: I could see him skewering Farage and peeling off 15% of the Reform vote.

    But without him, there are a bunch of no hopers (including Binface), and it would require something truly extraordinary for him to come through the middle. Not impossible (hence 15-1), but something pretty uncommon.
    When the public get behind a movement, you get Boaty McBoatface.
    It can be done.
    The other side to that is that the Clacton demos is not a very meme-social-media demographic.
    And if all the pro-bin sentiment comes from outside the constituency it could be another Clark County.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 11,167
    edited 11:01AM
    Barnesian said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @WilliamHill

    It is more likely for Count Binface to win the Clacton By-election (7/2) than it is for England to win the World Cup (9/2) 🤯

    Bin for the Win! 🗑️

    Can’t help thinking 7/2 is a little short though, obviously weight of money in the last 24 hours.
    It's massively, absurdly short.

    I would want at least 10-1, and probably more like 15-1 to play.

    Now, if Lowe's lot had stood, it might have been possible: I could see him skewering Farage and peeling off 15% of the Reform vote.

    But without him, there are a bunch of no hopers (including Binface), and it would require something truly extraordinary for him to come through the middle. Not impossible (hence 15-1), but something pretty uncommon.
    When the public get behind a movement, you get Boaty McBoatface.
    It can be done.
    Indeed. That's probably precisely the kind of momentum that Reform are worried about, otherwise they wouldn't already be sending activists to Clacton, away from other areas.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,813
    edited 11:02AM

    Barnesian said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @WilliamHill

    It is more likely for Count Binface to win the Clacton By-election (7/2) than it is for England to win the World Cup (9/2) 🤯

    Bin for the Win! 🗑️

    Can’t help thinking 7/2 is a little short though, obviously weight of money in the last 24 hours.
    It's massively, absurdly short.

    I would want at least 10-1, and probably more like 15-1 to play.

    Now, if Lowe's lot had stood, it might have been possible: I could see him skewering Farage and peeling off 15% of the Reform vote.

    But without him, there are a bunch of no hopers (including Binface), and it would require something truly extraordinary for him to come through the middle. Not impossible (hence 15-1), but something pretty uncommon.
    When the public get behind a movement, you get Boaty McBoatface.
    It can be done.
    Indeed. That's probably precisely the kind of momrentum that Reform are worried about, otherwise they wouldn't already be sending activists to Clacton, away from other areas.
    Rightly. It's a "free kick up Bishop Brennan's arse" election.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,971
    Foss said:

    Barnesian said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @WilliamHill

    It is more likely for Count Binface to win the Clacton By-election (7/2) than it is for England to win the World Cup (9/2) 🤯

    Bin for the Win! 🗑️

    Can’t help thinking 7/2 is a little short though, obviously weight of money in the last 24 hours.
    It's massively, absurdly short.

    I would want at least 10-1, and probably more like 15-1 to play.

    Now, if Lowe's lot had stood, it might have been possible: I could see him skewering Farage and peeling off 15% of the Reform vote.

    But without him, there are a bunch of no hopers (including Binface), and it would require something truly extraordinary for him to come through the middle. Not impossible (hence 15-1), but something pretty uncommon.
    When the public get behind a movement, you get Boaty McBoatface.
    It can be done.
    The other side to that is that the Clacton demos is not a very meme-social-media demographic.
    Precisely. The people that voted for Boaty McBoatface were self-selecting.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,971
    Surely part of the calculation with Bin Face is that he takes the suit off and runs a Martin Bell-style campaign.

    But, I'm not sure that works in Clacton either.
  • MelonBMelonB Posts: 17,555

    Barnesian said:

    Bonnie Tyler has died.

    Total Eclipse of the Heart - one of the best songs ever.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fSeFxzeo5Ts
    Er... no, it's not. Nothing like.

    Good song but not even near the top 100.
    Meatloaf wanted it for himself (he and Tyler were both written for by Steinman.)

    You can easily imagine it sung by Meatloaf. The two very much a shared the same operatic vampire rock style.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,813
    edited 11:06AM
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @WilliamHill

    It is more likely for Count Binface to win the Clacton By-election (7/2) than it is for England to win the World Cup (9/2) 🤯

    Bin for the Win! 🗑️

    Can’t help thinking 7/2 is a little short though, obviously weight of money in the last 24 hours.
    It's massively, absurdly short.

    I would want at least 10-1, and probably more like 15-1 to play.

    Now, if Lowe's lot had stood, it might have been possible: I could see him skewering Farage and peeling off 15% of the Reform vote.

    But without him, there are a bunch of no hopers (including Binface), and it would require something truly extraordinary for him to come through the middle. Not impossible (hence 15-1), but something pretty uncommon.
    It could be argued by pulling this by-election stunt, Farage is the no-hoper...

    The idea of Farage ruining his own career is just too delicious not to get excited about. Everybody who hates Farage would love a day out leafletting for Binface.
  • eekeek Posts: 34,466
    tlg86 said:

    Surely part of the calculation with Bin Face is that he takes the suit off and runs a Martin Bell-style campaign.

    But, I'm not sure that works in Clacton either.

    H'angus the Monkey ran as the Monkey and then switched to Stuart Drummond as soon as he won...
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 11,167
    edited 11:09AM
    tlg86 said:

    Foss said:

    Barnesian said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @WilliamHill

    It is more likely for Count Binface to win the Clacton By-election (7/2) than it is for England to win the World Cup (9/2) 🤯

    Bin for the Win! 🗑️

    Can’t help thinking 7/2 is a little short though, obviously weight of money in the last 24 hours.
    It's massively, absurdly short.

    I would want at least 10-1, and probably more like 15-1 to play.

    Now, if Lowe's lot had stood, it might have been possible: I could see him skewering Farage and peeling off 15% of the Reform vote.

    But without him, there are a bunch of no hopers (including Binface), and it would require something truly extraordinary for him to come through the middle. Not impossible (hence 15-1), but something pretty uncommon.
    When the public get behind a movement, you get Boaty McBoatface.
    It can be done.
    The other side to that is that the Clacton demos is not a very meme-social-media demographic.
    Precisely. The people that voted for Boaty McBoatface were self-selecting.
    On the other hand, the majority of people in Clacton actually either didn't vote at al, or vote for Farage, last time.

    That's quite a large potentially new self-selecting audience.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 62,365
    eek said:

    tlg86 said:

    Surely part of the calculation with Bin Face is that he takes the suit off and runs a Martin Bell-style campaign.

    But, I'm not sure that works in Clacton either.

    H'angus the Monkey ran as the Monkey and then switched to Stuart Drummond as soon as he won...
    And he did a good enough job as Mayor of Hartlepool that he was re-elected to the role.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,813

    PJH said:

    eek said:

    Assuming this Guardian article has some texts to back it up https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jul/09/reform-activists-manchester-farage-clacton-byelection-contest?CMP=bsky_gu

    How scared is Farage about losing Clacton - there would still be 1/2 weeks after Manchester to campaign in Clacton. This seems to imply that it's a binary choice and the bin could win...

    The Guardian say:

    "At present, only the novelty candidate Count Binface and the former actor Laurence Fox, leader of the rightwing Reclaim party, have announced they will stand against Farage."

    Meanwhile Wikipedia have:

    "Farage announced that he would stand again for Reform UK in the by-election as part of his resignation speech.[1] Count Binface, a novelty and perennial candidate portrayed by a comedian, announced his intention to stand, and the Monster Raving Loony Party, a satirical party, announced their intention to field a candidate.[25] Reclaim Party leader Laurence Fox also announced via X (formerly Twitter) that he would stand, seeking to "elevate the Fight on the Right", according to The Independent.[25] Rejoin EU announced via X that they were looking for a candidate to stand in the election.[26] Adham Alkhatip announced that they would stand for the Forward Party.[27] Ollie Granger, a television professional, has announced that he was seeking to stand as an independent candidate.[28] The British Democrats announced they were standing candidate Kai Stephens.[29][non-primary source needed] Former reality TV star Luke Worley announced he would stand as an independent [30]"

    Even complete with references so that a person can check their sources (the Guardian is awful about linking to sources). Remember when we used to ridicule papers that used Wikipedia as a source? And now it would improve their reporting if they used Wikipedia rather than relying solely on twitter (although one of the declarations they missed is from twitter). Even one of the Wikipedia sources is a BBC article!

    I don't think Farage is that worried about losing, but I do think that he'd find a record low turnout and receiving four figures of votes embarrassing, and he wants to make sure turnout is encouraged. I'd guess the key period for postal votes would probably be before polling day in Greater Manchester?
    If I were a seafront trader in the Clacton and Walton areas I'd be very annoyed at a host of election candidates taking up parking spaces etc. during the height of summer. And if I lived in Frinton I'd be very upset at my lovely hot summer being disturbed by electioneering.
    If you lived in Frinton, you'd be upset about almost any activity whatsoever. It's their USP. They really are all up their bum over everything there.

    FWIW I much prefer Walton. Of the three main places in the constituency I'd choose to live there - nice enough, no airs and graces, decent beach. Clacton I find a bit of a dive though the beach is quite good. The last time I was there I stood out because I was about 10 tattoos short of the average.

    More seriously, what all three places have is an overabundance of just about comfortable but not wealthy pensioners, who'd like the world returned to the imagined perfection of their 1950s and 1960s childhoods. The sorts of people who have moved away from Romford because it 'ain't what is used to be'. There is poverty, not just in Jaywick but also in parts of Clacton, but also a lot of people doing average sorts of jobs on not especially good money who aren't necessarily as uniform or as firmly behind Reform as the pensioner bloc vote.
    The best thing that could happen as a result of the attention on Clacton would be if serious money was spent helping Jaywick.
    A £5 million donation?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,971

    tlg86 said:

    Foss said:

    Barnesian said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @WilliamHill

    It is more likely for Count Binface to win the Clacton By-election (7/2) than it is for England to win the World Cup (9/2) 🤯

    Bin for the Win! 🗑️

    Can’t help thinking 7/2 is a little short though, obviously weight of money in the last 24 hours.
    It's massively, absurdly short.

    I would want at least 10-1, and probably more like 15-1 to play.

    Now, if Lowe's lot had stood, it might have been possible: I could see him skewering Farage and peeling off 15% of the Reform vote.

    But without him, there are a bunch of no hopers (including Binface), and it would require something truly extraordinary for him to come through the middle. Not impossible (hence 15-1), but something pretty uncommon.
    When the public get behind a movement, you get Boaty McBoatface.
    It can be done.
    The other side to that is that the Clacton demos is not a very meme-social-media demographic.
    Precisely. The people that voted for Boaty McBoatface were self-selecting.
    On the other hand, the majority of people in Clacton actually either didn't vote at al, or vote for Farage, last time.

    That's quite a large potentially new self-selecting audience.
    12,820 Tory voters. What do they do? Vote for Bin Face to get rid of Farage or vote for Farage and then vote Tory at the next by election (should it happen)?

    I think I'd be inclined to vote for Farage as it is possibly the worst outcome for Reform.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 37,020
    Watch this. [Video of Select Committee embedded in tweet.]

    We currently pay £1.5 billion a year to switch wind farms off when it's too windy.

    Rachel Fletcher from Octopus Energy has just told Parliament that could soar to £10 BILLION by 2030.

    Ed Miliband is writing cheques for wind farm developers before the grid can move their energy to where it’s needed.

    This is a political choice and it is making electricity expensive.

    Government needs to wake up to what their plans are doing to our energy prices and make electricity cheap.

    https://x.com/ClaireCoutinho/status/2075111661493498266

    The message might have been more effective without Coutinho's spin but...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 73,101
    Eurostar prepares for 55C summers
    Channel Tunnel operator orders trains that can withstand Saharan temperatures after blistering heatwaves

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/07/09/eurostar-prepares-for-55c-summers/
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 40,382

    Barnesian said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @WilliamHill

    It is more likely for Count Binface to win the Clacton By-election (7/2) than it is for England to win the World Cup (9/2) 🤯

    Bin for the Win! 🗑️

    Can’t help thinking 7/2 is a little short though, obviously weight of money in the last 24 hours.
    It's massively, absurdly short.

    I would want at least 10-1, and probably more like 15-1 to play.

    Now, if Lowe's lot had stood, it might have been possible: I could see him skewering Farage and peeling off 15% of the Reform vote.

    But without him, there are a bunch of no hopers (including Binface), and it would require something truly extraordinary for him to come through the middle. Not impossible (hence 15-1), but something pretty uncommon.
    When the public get behind a movement, you get Boaty McBoatface.
    It can be done.
    Indeed. That's probably precisely the kind of momrentum that Reform are worried about, otherwise they wouldn't already be sending activists to Clacton, away from other areas.
    Rightly. It's a "free kick up Bishop Brennan's arse" election.
    And Farage is Bishop Brennan's arse?
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,673
    tlg86 said:

    Surely part of the calculation with Bin Face is that he takes the suit off and runs a Martin Bell-style campaign.

    But, I'm not sure that works in Clacton either.

    The man in the suit is pure Centrist Dad, so I think it's unlikely.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 37,639

    tlg86 said:

    Foss said:

    Barnesian said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @WilliamHill

    It is more likely for Count Binface to win the Clacton By-election (7/2) than it is for England to win the World Cup (9/2) 🤯

    Bin for the Win! 🗑️

    Can’t help thinking 7/2 is a little short though, obviously weight of money in the last 24 hours.
    It's massively, absurdly short.

    I would want at least 10-1, and probably more like 15-1 to play.

    Now, if Lowe's lot had stood, it might have been possible: I could see him skewering Farage and peeling off 15% of the Reform vote.

    But without him, there are a bunch of no hopers (including Binface), and it would require something truly extraordinary for him to come through the middle. Not impossible (hence 15-1), but something pretty uncommon.
    When the public get behind a movement, you get Boaty McBoatface.
    It can be done.
    The other side to that is that the Clacton demos is not a very meme-social-media demographic.
    Precisely. The people that voted for Boaty McBoatface were self-selecting.
    On the other hand, the majority of people in Clacton actually either didn't vote at al, or vote for Farage, last time.

    That's quite a large potentially new self-selecting audience.
    Turnout in 2024 was 58%, according to Wikipedia. Down a bit on previous elections, but not significantly different. The Carswell by election resulted in a 51% turnout.
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 2,082
    Fpt:
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Nigelb said:

    Taz said:

    eek said:

    MelonB said:

    murali_s said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The comments under this video from the Times about Clacton are appalling imo. Snobbish doesn't even come close.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JsW8r-UXTj4

    Clacton is a cesspit of low aspiration, low education and anger. Let’s not look in the mirror and reflect, let’s point the fingers. Far easier to blame someone else for your shortcomings, isn’t it?
    The FRITLF phenomenon at play again. The far right do not and never have done self reflection. It’s always someone else’s fault. Even what they do themselves, even when they bring disaster upon themselves or the country by their own hands, it’s someone else’s fault. “She provoked me”. The abuser’s mentality.
    It’s some else’s fault is a very persuasive argument for people with both little and little aspiration.

    And that is both Farage’s target audience.
    Another day

    Another ‘let’s sneer at the underclass’ vibe on PB.

    No wonder Reform exists. These people know they and their communities are despised. They have a vote. They will use it.
    A fair point which deserves addressing.

    But in return, what does Farage offer them other than grievance ? His only substantive policy - Brexit - has done nothing for them (and has very likely further impoverished poorer regions).
    Two third if the electorate now judge it a failure.

    Immigration, his other rallying cry, rocketed post-Brexit under a government led by a Brexiteer. It's now falling substantially under a government he despises.

    And his other great interest - crypto - is completely removed from the lives of those in Clacton. His constituency, which he barely deigns to visit.

    The man is a charlatan.
    I’m no fan of Farage.

    Blaming the underclass for their position in life, when we don’t have equality of opportunity in this country, is extremely condescending.

    Perhaps if people engaged with them and asked why the appeal instead of just sneering at them, then we’d find out.

    The impression I get, and this is Micro not Macro, is Reform are the ones actually listening to these people and acknowledging their concerns.

    That’s the first step.

    And acknowledging concerns doesn’t mean agreeing with them.
    Farage et al may well be listening to grievances, but they seem to prefer stoking them to resolving them.

    So what’s your solution

    Keep,voting the same old ?

    No one resolves them. But the other main parties just refuse to even acknowledge them. But it’s PB so Reform are bad, so vote for the other parties who’ve done nothing to improve these peoples lives and their communities in decades
    I think it's a little more nuanced than that.

    The main parties are not doing nothing, I just think they sit on the wrong side of the incremental change Vs radical break with current orthodoxy.

    This is for good reason - any radical change is high risk, whether it is closing our borders to cheap labour and different cultures, or 'refusing to be in hock to the bond markets'.

    Those with a lot invested in the current system (which includes all of us) are understandably cautious about messing with it. But that goes down like a cup of cold sick for those who perceive (rightly or wrongly) that the current system works against them.

  • eekeek Posts: 34,466
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Foss said:

    Barnesian said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @WilliamHill

    It is more likely for Count Binface to win the Clacton By-election (7/2) than it is for England to win the World Cup (9/2) 🤯

    Bin for the Win! 🗑️

    Can’t help thinking 7/2 is a little short though, obviously weight of money in the last 24 hours.
    It's massively, absurdly short.

    I would want at least 10-1, and probably more like 15-1 to play.

    Now, if Lowe's lot had stood, it might have been possible: I could see him skewering Farage and peeling off 15% of the Reform vote.

    But without him, there are a bunch of no hopers (including Binface), and it would require something truly extraordinary for him to come through the middle. Not impossible (hence 15-1), but something pretty uncommon.
    When the public get behind a movement, you get Boaty McBoatface.
    It can be done.
    The other side to that is that the Clacton demos is not a very meme-social-media demographic.
    Precisely. The people that voted for Boaty McBoatface were self-selecting.
    On the other hand, the majority of people in Clacton actually either didn't vote at al, or vote for Farage, last time.

    That's quite a large potentially new self-selecting audience.
    12,820 Tory voters. What do they do? Vote for Bin Face to get rid of Farage or vote for Farage and then vote Tory at the next by election (should it happen)?

    I think I'd be inclined to vote for Farage as it is possibly the worst outcome for Reform.
    Is that the 4d chess argument that Matt Goodwin came up with.

    Keep things simple, if you vote Binface you have an independent MP for 3 years who may well actually try and do some good for the town rather than using it as a pedestal to earn money for himself.

  • FossFoss Posts: 2,864
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Foss said:

    Barnesian said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @WilliamHill

    It is more likely for Count Binface to win the Clacton By-election (7/2) than it is for England to win the World Cup (9/2) 🤯

    Bin for the Win! 🗑️

    Can’t help thinking 7/2 is a little short though, obviously weight of money in the last 24 hours.
    It's massively, absurdly short.

    I would want at least 10-1, and probably more like 15-1 to play.

    Now, if Lowe's lot had stood, it might have been possible: I could see him skewering Farage and peeling off 15% of the Reform vote.

    But without him, there are a bunch of no hopers (including Binface), and it would require something truly extraordinary for him to come through the middle. Not impossible (hence 15-1), but something pretty uncommon.
    When the public get behind a movement, you get Boaty McBoatface.
    It can be done.
    The other side to that is that the Clacton demos is not a very meme-social-media demographic.
    Precisely. The people that voted for Boaty McBoatface were self-selecting.
    On the other hand, the majority of people in Clacton actually either didn't vote at al, or vote for Farage, last time.

    That's quite a large potentially new self-selecting audience.
    12,820 Tory voters. What do they do? Vote for Bin Face to get rid of Farage or vote for Farage and then vote Tory at the next by election (should it happen)?

    I think I'd be inclined to vote for Farage as it is possibly the worst outcome for Reform.
    I think a large majority will just opt to stay at home and write the whole thing off as a gauche vanity event.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 10,233
    Foss said:

    Barnesian said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @WilliamHill

    It is more likely for Count Binface to win the Clacton By-election (7/2) than it is for England to win the World Cup (9/2) 🤯

    Bin for the Win! 🗑️

    Can’t help thinking 7/2 is a little short though, obviously weight of money in the last 24 hours.
    It's massively, absurdly short.

    I would want at least 10-1, and probably more like 15-1 to play.

    Now, if Lowe's lot had stood, it might have been possible: I could see him skewering Farage and peeling off 15% of the Reform vote.

    But without him, there are a bunch of no hopers (including Binface), and it would require something truly extraordinary for him to come through the middle. Not impossible (hence 15-1), but something pretty uncommon.
    When the public get behind a movement, you get Boaty McBoatface.
    It can be done.
    The other side to that is that the Clacton demos is not a very meme-social-media demographic.
    This is true. But in a very low turnout election, the, admittedly small, Clacton meme-social-media demographic may make all the difference.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 4,509

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @WilliamHill

    It is more likely for Count Binface to win the Clacton By-election (7/2) than it is for England to win the World Cup (9/2) 🤯

    Bin for the Win! 🗑️

    Can’t help thinking 7/2 is a little short though, obviously weight of money in the last 24 hours.
    It's massively, absurdly short.

    I would want at least 10-1, and probably more like 15-1 to play.

    Now, if Lowe's lot had stood, it might have been possible: I could see him skewering Farage and peeling off 15% of the Reform vote.

    But without him, there are a bunch of no hopers (including Binface), and it would require something truly extraordinary for him to come through the middle. Not impossible (hence 15-1), but something pretty uncommon.
    It could be argued by pulling this by-election stunt, Farage is the no-hoper...

    The idea of Farage ruining his own career is just too delicious not to get excited about. Everybody who hates Farage would love a day out leafletting for Binface.
    I think there will literally be thousands, across the political spectrum prepared to go and help Count Binface. As for what the best/worst result for Reform is- look, losing to Binface would be absolutely crushing in a way that a narrow win would not. Expecting the constituency that he has barely visited to re-elect him after he quit to avoid full investigation of some pretty serious allegations of criminal wrongdoing is the definition of utterly entitled.

    The odds tell their own story- it is not expected that Farage loses, but it is certainly well within the bounds of possibility, and a more appropriately ignominious end to his political career could hardly be thought of.

    Farage has fucked this up and deserves to lose.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 37,020
    Foss said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Foss said:

    Barnesian said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @WilliamHill

    It is more likely for Count Binface to win the Clacton By-election (7/2) than it is for England to win the World Cup (9/2) 🤯

    Bin for the Win! 🗑️

    Can’t help thinking 7/2 is a little short though, obviously weight of money in the last 24 hours.
    It's massively, absurdly short.

    I would want at least 10-1, and probably more like 15-1 to play.

    Now, if Lowe's lot had stood, it might have been possible: I could see him skewering Farage and peeling off 15% of the Reform vote.

    But without him, there are a bunch of no hopers (including Binface), and it would require something truly extraordinary for him to come through the middle. Not impossible (hence 15-1), but something pretty uncommon.
    When the public get behind a movement, you get Boaty McBoatface.
    It can be done.
    The other side to that is that the Clacton demos is not a very meme-social-media demographic.
    Precisely. The people that voted for Boaty McBoatface were self-selecting.
    On the other hand, the majority of people in Clacton actually either didn't vote at al, or vote for Farage, last time.

    That's quite a large potentially new self-selecting audience.
    12,820 Tory voters. What do they do? Vote for Bin Face to get rid of Farage or vote for Farage and then vote Tory at the next by election (should it happen)?

    I think I'd be inclined to vote for Farage as it is possibly the worst outcome for Reform.
    I think a large majority will just opt to stay at home and write the whole thing off as a gauche vanity event.
    Especially if there is yet another heatwave on polling day. Nor would I fancy canvassing in this heat.
  • TazTaz Posts: 29,249
    eek said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Foss said:

    Barnesian said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @WilliamHill

    It is more likely for Count Binface to win the Clacton By-election (7/2) than it is for England to win the World Cup (9/2) 🤯

    Bin for the Win! 🗑️

    Can’t help thinking 7/2 is a little short though, obviously weight of money in the last 24 hours.
    It's massively, absurdly short.

    I would want at least 10-1, and probably more like 15-1 to play.

    Now, if Lowe's lot had stood, it might have been possible: I could see him skewering Farage and peeling off 15% of the Reform vote.

    But without him, there are a bunch of no hopers (including Binface), and it would require something truly extraordinary for him to come through the middle. Not impossible (hence 15-1), but something pretty uncommon.
    When the public get behind a movement, you get Boaty McBoatface.
    It can be done.
    The other side to that is that the Clacton demos is not a very meme-social-media demographic.
    Precisely. The people that voted for Boaty McBoatface were self-selecting.
    On the other hand, the majority of people in Clacton actually either didn't vote at al, or vote for Farage, last time.

    That's quite a large potentially new self-selecting audience.
    12,820 Tory voters. What do they do? Vote for Bin Face to get rid of Farage or vote for Farage and then vote Tory at the next by election (should it happen)?

    I think I'd be inclined to vote for Farage as it is possibly the worst outcome for Reform.
    Is that the 4d chess argument that Matt Goodwin came up with.

    Keep things simple, if you vote Binface you have an independent MP for 3 years who may well actually try and do some good for the town rather than using it as a pedestal to earn money for himself.

    A novelty candidate with a good career outside of politics. Would he really want to give all that up just to be a local MP with no power.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,813
    Possibly my favouritie house on my favourite place on the planet - Mull - is on the market. I used to stay there when it had the tiny theatre.

    Don't think I can persuade Scottish wife to move there...

    https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/154003892#/?channel=RES_BUY
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,957
    eek said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Foss said:

    Barnesian said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @WilliamHill

    It is more likely for Count Binface to win the Clacton By-election (7/2) than it is for England to win the World Cup (9/2) 🤯

    Bin for the Win! 🗑️

    Can’t help thinking 7/2 is a little short though, obviously weight of money in the last 24 hours.
    It's massively, absurdly short.

    I would want at least 10-1, and probably more like 15-1 to play.

    Now, if Lowe's lot had stood, it might have been possible: I could see him skewering Farage and peeling off 15% of the Reform vote.

    But without him, there are a bunch of no hopers (including Binface), and it would require something truly extraordinary for him to come through the middle. Not impossible (hence 15-1), but something pretty uncommon.
    When the public get behind a movement, you get Boaty McBoatface.
    It can be done.
    The other side to that is that the Clacton demos is not a very meme-social-media demographic.
    Precisely. The people that voted for Boaty McBoatface were self-selecting.
    On the other hand, the majority of people in Clacton actually either didn't vote at al, or vote for Farage, last time.

    That's quite a large potentially new self-selecting audience.
    12,820 Tory voters. What do they do? Vote for Bin Face to get rid of Farage or vote for Farage and then vote Tory at the next by election (should it happen)?

    I think I'd be inclined to vote for Farage as it is possibly the worst outcome for Reform.
    Is that the 4d chess argument that Matt Goodwin came up with.

    Keep things simple, if you vote Binface you have an independent MP for 3 years who may well actually try and do some good for the town rather than using it as a pedestal to earn money for himself.

    Doubt there’s a bigger density of low information, Farage supporters in the country. Most won't know of his travails and the rest may well overlook it rather than turn out for a novelty candidate with a fruity voice.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 81,293
    All this Count Binface talk got me looking into who this guy really is.
    Jonathan David Harvey — who earns his living making comedy shows for the BBC — is an Oxbridge liberal elitist who has screeds of anti-Brexit, anti-Trump, and anti-British rants on his Twitter going back over a decade.
    Oh, and so does his “Talent Manager” Hollie Ebdon, who once wrote of Farage, “Oh f*ck off you horrible c*nt.”
    Don’t get me wrong, I think Binface is a hilarious character, and Harvey is clearly a talented satirist.
    But pretending he’s just some random bloke in a suit having a laugh is nonsense.
    He’s an establishment luvvie sent to try to undermine the aspirations of people who vote for right wing candidates or parties.
    Reminds me of when Al Murray ran against Farage in 2015 and got 300-odd votes. Mocking people to their faces is only funny for so long.


    The smear campaign against Binface has begun in earnest on social media.
  • eekeek Posts: 34,466
    MelonB said:

    Watch this. [Video of Select Committee embedded in tweet.]

    We currently pay £1.5 billion a year to switch wind farms off when it's too windy.

    Rachel Fletcher from Octopus Energy has just told Parliament that could soar to £10 BILLION by 2030.

    Ed Miliband is writing cheques for wind farm developers before the grid can move their energy to where it’s needed.

    This is a political choice and it is making electricity expensive.

    Government needs to wake up to what their plans are doing to our energy prices and make electricity cheap.

    https://x.com/ClaireCoutinho/status/2075111661493498266

    The message might have been more effective without Coutinho's spin but...

    Coutinho is dog whistling on this, that the answer is to burn more fossil fuels. Which is absolutely not what Octopus are arguing. We need much more rapid grid upgrading. Then we get tonnes of essentially free energy.
    Grid upgrades and storage so excess energy is kept for later use.

    And given some of the plans I've seen the issue is going to be just putting the storage in the appropriate places, financing it doesn't seem to be the problem.
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