That's four on the trot in July now, Labour third. Are people still desperately clinging to the Ipsos poll from last month to try and discredit this trend?
If you look at the opinion poll graph on wikipedia the Tories and Labour have been pretty close for second and third since November 2025. So it's not really that surprising to have a run of polls with Labour in third. There have been loads of them over the months since. There were seven in a row at the end of December and the start of January, and seven in total in June.
it's not a "trend", it's the status quo.
Why are you ramping them as though they're something new and surprising?
Ain't no ramping. Yesterday I pointed out that the last three polls (all fieldwork in July) failed to show a Burnham bounce and I was haughtily told that I was ignoring the Ipsos poll from June.
I am simply showing there is no Burnham bounce (yet).
As for the status quo, how many times have Labour been third (not including tied second) in four opinion polls on the trot this year? On only one other occasion. So no, it isn't the status quo.
After reading the posts and Richard’s question on this yesterday, I looked it up. There’s two they use alternating for resigning since the 70s, historically there were hundreds they used or could use. Or even be thousands of these hundreds? It came about when Parliament, the commons, wrestling power from Kings, kings to set them up and attach money to bribe MPs into their camp, so to fight back commons ruled anyone taking one of these things is instantly cancelling their Parliament membership.
I’m sure there’s some who’d argue this is British constitution and isn’t brilliant and beautiful, whilst others come over all Porterhouse Blue and say what archaic gibberish, surely we can do MP resignations more modern in 21st century.
by statute they can only use these two remaining ones, I think it would be cool if law was Chancellor could invent a whole new one each time if they wanted, like the kings of old did, it could be themed on why someone resigning? Taking the Lord Governorship of the Clacton Chalets.
That's four on the trot in July now, Labour third. Are people still desperately clinging to the Ipsos poll from last month to try and discredit this trend?
If you look at the opinion poll graph on wikipedia the Tories and Labour have been pretty close for second and third since November 2025. So it's not really that surprising to have a run of polls with Labour in third. There have been loads of them over the months since. There were seven in a row at the end of December and the start of January, and seven in total in June.
it's not a "trend", it's the status quo.
Why are you ramping them as though they're something new and surprising?
Ain't no ramping. Yesterday I pointed out that the last three polls (all fieldwork in July) failed to show a Burnham bounce and I was haughtily told that I was ignoring the Ipsos poll from June.
I am simply showing there is no Burnham bounce (yet).
As for the status quo, how many times have Labour been third (not including tied second) in four opinion polls on the trot this year? On only one other occasion. So no, it isn't the status quo.
You are absolutely spot on. So much for the Burnham Bounce. At what point do everyone in Labour and its supporters realise the cataclysmic error they are making?
That's four on the trot in July now, Labour third. Are people still desperately clinging to the Ipsos poll from last month to try and discredit this trend?
If you look at the opinion poll graph on wikipedia the Tories and Labour have been pretty close for second and third since November 2025. So it's not really that surprising to have a run of polls with Labour in third. There have been loads of them over the months since. There were seven in a row at the end of December and the start of January, and seven in total in June.
it's not a "trend", it's the status quo.
Why are you ramping them as though they're something new and surprising?
Ain't no ramping. Yesterday I pointed out that the last three polls (all fieldwork in July) failed to show a Burnham bounce and I was haughtily told that I was ignoring the Ipsos poll from June.
I am simply showing there is no Burnham bounce (yet).
As for the status quo, how many times have Labour been third (not including tied second) in four opinion polls on the trot this year? On only one other occasion. So no, it isn't the status quo.
So, all six pollsters that have reported since Starmer's resignation, comparing the most recent polls (including this one) with their last polls that took place prior to Starmer's resignation.
Labour 20.7 (+1.7) Reform 24.7 (-0.3) Conservative 20.2 (+0.9) LD 11.2 (-0.8) Green 13.8 (-1.0)
That's four on the trot in July now, Labour third. Are people still desperately clinging to the Ipsos poll from last month to try and discredit this trend?
If you look at the opinion poll graph on wikipedia the Tories and Labour have been pretty close for second and third since November 2025. So it's not really that surprising to have a run of polls with Labour in third. There have been loads of them over the months since. There were seven in a row at the end of December and the start of January, and seven in total in June.
it's not a "trend", it's the status quo.
Why are you ramping them as though they're something new and surprising?
Ain't no ramping. Yesterday I pointed out that the last three polls (all fieldwork in July) failed to show a Burnham bounce and I was haughtily told that I was ignoring the Ipsos poll from June.
I am simply showing there is no Burnham bounce (yet).
As for the status quo, how many times have Labour been third (not including tied second) in four opinion polls on the trot this year? On only one other occasion. So no, it isn't the status quo.
So, all six pollsters that have reported since Starmer's resignation, comparing the most recent polls (including this one) with their last polls that took place prior to Starmer's resignation.
Labour 20.7 (+1.7) Reform 24.7 (-0.3) Conservative 20.2 (+0.9) LD 11.2 (-0.8) Green 13.8 (-1.0)
Labour down = MiC (-3%), Opinium (-1%), FON (-3%) Labour level = Yougov (=) Labour up = Ipsos (+4%), Freshwater (+1%)
So I'd disagree with your 1.7% calculation, suspect you aren't including latest FON poll (Lab on 18%). It is actually negative, they are DOWN. And there is nothing at all in here showing any Burnham bounce. It's an illusion.
That's four on the trot in July now, Labour third. Are people still desperately clinging to the Ipsos poll from last month to try and discredit this trend?
If you look at the opinion poll graph on wikipedia the Tories and Labour have been pretty close for second and third since November 2025. So it's not really that surprising to have a run of polls with Labour in third. There have been loads of them over the months since. There were seven in a row at the end of December and the start of January, and seven in total in June.
it's not a "trend", it's the status quo.
Why are you ramping them as though they're something new and surprising?
Ain't no ramping. Yesterday I pointed out that the last three polls (all fieldwork in July) failed to show a Burnham bounce and I was haughtily told that I was ignoring the Ipsos poll from June.
I am simply showing there is no Burnham bounce (yet).
As for the status quo, how many times have Labour been third (not including tied second) in four opinion polls on the trot this year? On only one other occasion. So no, it isn't the status quo.
So, all six pollsters that have reported since Starmer's resignation, comparing the most recent polls (including this one) with their last polls that took place prior to Starmer's resignation.
Labour 20.7 (+1.7) Reform 24.7 (-0.3) Conservative 20.2 (+0.9) LD 11.2 (-0.8) Green 13.8 (-1.0)
Labour down = MiC (-3%), Opinium (-1%), FON (-3%) Labour level = Yougov (=) Labour up = Ipsos (+4%), Freshwater (+1%)
So I'd disagree with your 1.7% calculation, suspect you aren't including latest FON poll (Lab on 18%). It is actually negative, they are DOWN. And there is nothing at all in here showing any Burnham bounce. It's an illusion.
FFS Shark. It's basically a three way tie between Ref, Con and Lab give or take a little MoE.
Whether that means anything at the moment, who knows? Will Burnham get a bounce? Who knows? Will the Crypto- King take a fall? Who knows? Has Badenoch had anything other than a minor post May election (faux) win bounce? No!
That's four on the trot in July now, Labour third. Are people still desperately clinging to the Ipsos poll from last month to try and discredit this trend?
If you look at the opinion poll graph on wikipedia the Tories and Labour have been pretty close for second and third since November 2025. So it's not really that surprising to have a run of polls with Labour in third. There have been loads of them over the months since. There were seven in a row at the end of December and the start of January, and seven in total in June.
it's not a "trend", it's the status quo.
Why are you ramping them as though they're something new and surprising?
Ain't no ramping. Yesterday I pointed out that the last three polls (all fieldwork in July) failed to show a Burnham bounce and I was haughtily told that I was ignoring the Ipsos poll from June.
I am simply showing there is no Burnham bounce (yet).
As for the status quo, how many times have Labour been third (not including tied second) in four opinion polls on the trot this year? On only one other occasion. So no, it isn't the status quo.
So, all six pollsters that have reported since Starmer's resignation, comparing the most recent polls (including this one) with their last polls that took place prior to Starmer's resignation.
Labour 20.7 (+1.7) Reform 24.7 (-0.3) Conservative 20.2 (+0.9) LD 11.2 (-0.8) Green 13.8 (-1.0)
Labour down = MiC (-3%), Opinium (-1%), FON (-3%) Labour level = Yougov (=) Labour up = Ipsos (+4%), Freshwater (+1%)
So I'd disagree with your 1.7% calculation, suspect you aren't including latest FON poll (Lab on 18%). It is actually negative, they are DOWN. And there is nothing at all in here showing any Burnham bounce. It's an illusion.
FFS Shark. It's basically a three way tie between Ref, Con and Lab give or take a little MoE.
Whether that means anything at the moment, who knows? Will Burnham get a bounce? Who knows? Will the Crypto- King take a fall? Who knows? Has Badenoch had anything other than a minor post May election (faux) win bounce? No!
You seem a little upset Pete with a simple explanation, backed up with evidence, that there is no current Burnham bounce visible. If you have an alternative opinion that you can back up, please share. It is a political discussion blog after all, or am I not allowed to join in.
What would you prefer I talk about? Football, weather, tequila...
After reading the posts and Richard’s question on this yesterday, I looked it up. There’s two they use alternating for resigning since the 70s, historically there were hundreds they used or could use. Or even be thousands of these hundreds? It came about when Parliament, the commons, wrestling power from Kings, kings to set them up and attach money to bribe MPs into their camp, so to fight back commons ruled anyone taking one of these things is instantly cancelling their Parliament membership.
I’m sure there’s some who’d argue this is British constitution and isn’t brilliant and beautiful, whilst others come over all Porterhouse Blue and say what archaic gibberish, surely we can do MP resignations more modern in 21st century.
by statute they can only use these two remaining ones, I think it would be cool if law was Chancellor could invent a whole new one each time if they wanted, like the kings of old did, it could be themed on why someone resigning? Taking the Lord Governorship of the Clacton Chalets.
It seems ironic that an MP who takes a couple of guineas from the king should automatically lose his seat whereas an MP who receives £5M from a billionaire will stand proud and defend it. Shouldn't it be the other way round?
Seeing MoonRabbit back reminds me of something I have been meaning to say for some time: It is time for Dr. Foxy to promise never, ever to visit the moon!
The message might have been more effective without Coutinho's spin but...
Coutinho is dog whistling on this, that the answer is to burn more fossil fuels. Which is absolutely not what Octopus are arguing. We need much more rapid grid upgrading. Then we get tonnes of essentially free energy.
Grid upgrades and storage so excess energy is kept for later use.
And given some of the plans I've seen the issue is going to be just putting the storage in the appropriate places, financing it doesn't seem to be the problem.
I wouldn’t want a BESS near me.
Neither do the good people of Hetton. Good for them.
Storage is fine but lots of pushback from people if the appropriate place is in their back yard
Comments
I am simply showing there is no Burnham bounce (yet).
As for the status quo, how many times have Labour been third (not including tied second) in four opinion polls on the trot this year? On only one other occasion. So no, it isn't the status quo.
I’m sure there’s some who’d argue this is British constitution and isn’t brilliant and beautiful, whilst others come over all Porterhouse Blue and say what archaic gibberish, surely we can do MP resignations more modern in 21st century.
by statute they can only use these two remaining ones, I think it would be cool if law was Chancellor could invent a whole new one each time if they wanted, like the kings of old did, it could be themed on why someone resigning? Taking the Lord Governorship of the Clacton Chalets.
Labour 20.7 (+1.7)
Reform 24.7 (-0.3)
Conservative 20.2 (+0.9)
LD 11.2 (-0.8)
Green 13.8 (-1.0)
Labour level = Yougov (=)
Labour up = Ipsos (+4%), Freshwater (+1%)
So I'd disagree with your 1.7% calculation, suspect you aren't including latest FON poll (Lab on 18%). It is actually negative, they are DOWN. And there is nothing at all in here showing any Burnham bounce. It's an illusion.
Whether that means anything at the moment, who knows? Will Burnham get a bounce? Who knows? Will the Crypto- King take a fall? Who knows? Has Badenoch had anything other than a minor post May election (faux) win bounce? No!
What would you prefer I talk about? Football, weather, tequila...
I’m not answerable to you.
GFY
https://komonews.com/news/local/seattle-mayor-katie-wilson-pulls-plug-stadium-district-surveillance-cameras-federal-agents-ice-privacy-concerns-credible-threat-lumen-field-tmobile-park-world-cup-fifa