Is anyone else a little unsure about the wisdom of all the parties boycotting the by-election?
I do entirely understand why, but I rather feel its saying to the voters of Clacton that they can't be trusted.
No. It's absolutely right, as long as the other real parties did the same thing. If the Greens had stood the election would have had a small degree of manipulable contest, but without them it's a freak show. The parties have used an effective offside trap. It is legit because everyone knows Farage is pulling a manipulative stunt, so it's proper for others to use tactics as well.
Farage is playing silly games. The other parties have responded by saying they can play silly games too.
The alternative response would have been, “Bring it on. We believe in our case. We will fight you any time, any place.”
They could have. They know they'd lose and are making the best of it, aided by the fact Farage's logic makes no sense (the public voting for him does not mean he followed the rules).
Where we diverge is you seem to think voters will have no knowledge of why the parties did not stand the first time, since you said they'd need it explained to them, but apparently they will super care about it.
I think if there is a second by election (and there might not be after all) it will fire up anyone who dislikes Farage and even some former supporters, and they won't dwell on the last one.
The public pay far, far, far less attention to politics than we do here. The public make snap judgements. This by-election, why Farage called it, why others aren’t standing, it’s all very Westminster bubble. Lots of people, all they’re going to hear is “Farage won a by-election” and then “Farage has to face another by-election”. That, for some, will make Farage sound like a winner who is being persecuted by the system.
Anything that isn’t the message “Farage took £5 million and kept it a secret” is a distraction. Farage has created a distraction successfully.
Two deeply unserious carpetbaggers with insane manifestoes who pretend to be anti-establishment and are embroiled in innumerable legal troubles entirely born of their own grifting and stupidity.
And a bloke with a bin on his head.
Who is Fox? Been sleeping.
A theatre agent calls his actor client -
"Great news! I've found an amazing part for you. A movie directed by Spielberg!" "Steven Spielberg!" "No - Graham Spielberg, his cousin. But they've got Hanks in the lead!" "Tom Hanks!" "Not quite - Dave Hanks, his step-brother. I can also confirm that you'll have screentime with Beyonce!" "Beyonce Knowles?" "No, Beyonce Cruickshank, from Love Island. Fox is also on board!" "Laurence Fox?" "Yes"
Is anyone else a little unsure about the wisdom of all the parties boycotting the by-election?
I do entirely understand why, but I rather feel its saying to the voters of Clacton that they can't be trusted.
Two fairly easy lines:
1 Mr Farage is currently under investigation. It would be wrong to judge his innocence or guilt until that' investigation is finished.
2 Previous by-elections like this (DD in 2008, Ulster Unionists in.... when? have had other parties sitting them out. Forcing a by-election a pretty silly, almost childish, thing to do.
The problem with (1) is that the other parties, the media and the public have all been judging Farage’s innocence or guilt already. I’ve not heard Badenoch or Lowe saying, “Let’s wait to hear what the investigation says.”
Of the BBC and other serious politicians, this is, IMHO not true. The public are of course entitled to their own views.
Is anyone else a little unsure about the wisdom of all the parties boycotting the by-election?
I do entirely understand why, but I rather feel its saying to the voters of Clacton that they can't be trusted.
That's one interpretation, but a minority one I think.
It can be a minority one, but still shift the election result. If 10% of people think that way and are more sympathetic to Farage, then Farage is 10% up.
Two deeply unserious carpetbaggers with insane manifestoes who pretend to be anti-establishment and are embroiled in innumerable legal troubles entirely born of their own grifting and stupidity.
And a bloke with a bin on his head.
Who is Fox? Been sleeping.
Lawrence Fox, everyone's favourite fascist, failed actor and former husband of Billie Piper.
Is he standing for a particular party or just as his own obnoxious self?
The three old mainstream parties have always been a bit hamstrung in their attacks on Farage- attacking him without insulting his supporters is a tricky line to hold. I suspect that it's one of the reasons that left voters have peeled off to the Greens; they are freer to.attack, and do.
A bloke with a bin on his head needs not have such scruples.
Two deeply unserious carpetbaggers with insane manifestoes who pretend to be anti-establishment and are embroiled in innumerable legal troubles entirely born of their own grifting and stupidity.
And a bloke with a bin on his head.
Who is Fox? Been sleeping.
Lawrence Fox, everyone's favourite fascist, failed actor and former husband of Billie Piper.
Like Goodwin he started out his political journey asking serious questions of the consensus and making some legit points and then went bonkers. It would be nice to have some of these, both on the left and right, and from elsewhere, who stayed sane and thoughtful.
Two deeply unserious carpetbaggers with insane manifestoes who pretend to be anti-establishment and are embroiled in innumerable legal troubles entirely born of their own grifting and stupidity.
And a bloke with a bin on his head.
Who is Fox? Been sleeping.
Lawrence Fox, everyone's favourite fascist, failed actor and former husband of Billie Piper.
Is he standing for a particular party or just as his own obnoxious self?
He has his own vanity party, Reclaim, which is him, Jeremy Hosking paying and, briefly, Andrew Bridgen.
Two deeply unserious carpetbaggers with insane manifestoes who pretend to be anti-establishment and are embroiled in innumerable legal troubles entirely born of their own grifting and stupidity.
And a bloke with a bin on his head.
Who is Fox? Been sleeping.
Lawrence Fox, everyone's favourite fascist, failed actor and former husband of Billie Piper.
Is he standing for a particular party or just as his own obnoxious self?
He has his own vanity party, Reclaim, which is him, Jeremy Hosking paying and, briefly, Andrew Bridgen.
Is there a rule in politics that all new parties must start with an R?
Two deeply unserious carpetbaggers with insane manifestoes who pretend to be anti-establishment and are embroiled in innumerable legal troubles entirely born of their own grifting and stupidity.
And a bloke with a bin on his head.
Who is Fox? Been sleeping.
Lawrence Fox, everyone's favourite fascist, failed actor and former husband of Billie Piper.
Is he standing for a particular party or just as his own obnoxious self?
He has his own vanity party, Reclaim, which is him, Jeremy Hosking paying and, briefly, Andrew Bridgen.
Interesting Reclaim, Reform, and Restore all start the same way. Re- implies that things have diverted from the correct and old way to which we ought to return. That also has a similar feel to the slogan "Make America Great Again".
Ironic, given that if we did return to the ways of the recent past that would include being in the EU, which I'm pretty sure the ReThree would not like.
Of course, returning to even older ways may be what they're after.
If Farage loses, does the investigation into his joyous and no-strings £5m continue?
No, as its not criminal, its parliamentary surrounding if he has adheres to the rules MPs are required to follow upon being elected e.g. registering their interests. Its now on hold until the result of the by-election, then if he wins it will resume. There is also a suggestion that as he is a "new MP" the 12 month period restarts, so they can't do new investigations back 3 years ago i.e. 2 years when he was first elected + the 12 months.
The three old mainstream parties have always been a bit hamstrung in their attacks on Farage- attacking him without insulting his supporters is a tricky line to hold. I suspect that it's one of the reasons that left voters have peeled off to the Greens; they are freer to.attack, and do.
A bloke with a bin on his head needs not have such scruples.
There are 5million reasons you should vote for Count Binface.
I suspect that’s going to be repeated often enough that everyone in Clacton will know Farage has been bribed
The three old mainstream parties have always been a bit hamstrung in their attacks on Farage- attacking him without insulting his supporters is a tricky line to hold. I suspect that it's one of the reasons that left voters have peeled off to the Greens; they are freer to.attack, and do.
A bloke with a bin on his head needs not have such scruples.
There are 5million reasons you should vote for Count Binface.
I suspect that’s going to be repeated often enough that everyone in Clacton will know Farage has been bribed
Everyone will know Farage has been bribed… but they won’t have a serious alternative to vote for. I’m not convinced that’s going to gee up voters to vote out Farage in a second by-election.
Is anyone else a little unsure about the wisdom of all the parties boycotting the by-election?
I do entirely understand why, but I rather feel its saying to the voters of Clacton that they can't be trusted.
That's one interpretation, but a minority one I think.
It can be a minority one, but still shift the election result. If 10% of people think that way and are more sympathetic to Farage, then Farage is 10% up.
I doubt the turnout will be even half of the general election vote. The header headline asks the right QTWTAIN.
The three old mainstream parties have always been a bit hamstrung in their attacks on Farage- attacking him without insulting his supporters is a tricky line to hold. I suspect that it's one of the reasons that left voters have peeled off to the Greens; they are freer to.attack, and do.
A bloke with a bin on his head needs not have such scruples.
There are 5million reasons you should vote for Count Binface.
I suspect that’s going to be repeated often enough that everyone in Clacton will know Farage has been bribed
Mr. eek, that's very unfair. Farage has received £5m from a billionaire in exchange for no favours at all.
Sadly, and to my great surprise, no billionaire has yet given me £5m on the same basis, but I remain hopeful they will.
Is anyone else a little unsure about the wisdom of all the parties boycotting the by-election?
I do entirely understand why, but I rather feel its saying to the voters of Clacton that they can't be trusted.
That's one interpretation, but a minority one I think.
It can be a minority one, but still shift the election result. If 10% of people think that way and are more sympathetic to Farage, then Farage is 10% up.
I doubt the turnout will be even half of the general election vote. The header headline asks the right QTWTAIN.
I meant in the subsequent by-election, the one that matters.
Yusuf on R4 Today this morning was toecurlingly awful. The sense that Reform can only deal with stuff by shouting over questions and changing the subject is palpable. It felt like he had nowhere to go and nothing to say. Clearing the debris will take time but I think it's over for Reform in the sense that they will never lead or be part of a government.
One to watch: Danny Kruger. Since 6th July he has posted on X exactly once, on the subject of Capita's many failings.
Is anyone else a little unsure about the wisdom of all the parties boycotting the by-election?
I do entirely understand why, but I rather feel its saying to the voters of Clacton that they can't be trusted.
Two fairly easy lines:
1 Mr Farage is currently under investigation. It would be wrong to judge his innocence or guilt until that' investigation is finished.
2 Previous by-elections like this (DD in 2008, Ulster Unionists in.... when? have had other parties sitting them out. Forcing a by-election a pretty silly, almost childish, thing to do.
The problem with (1) is that the other parties, the media and the public have all been judging Farage’s innocence or guilt already. I’ve not heard Badenoch or Lowe saying, “Let’s wait to hear what the investigation says.”
Of the BBC and other serious politicians, this is, IMHO not true. The public are of course entitled to their own views.
Yes, and that is Farage's problem and perhaps will be his downfall. Forget the legalistic claptrap about whether the £5 million should have been declared, and even the politics of the lone star by-election, the problem for Farage is that his man of the people schtick is falling apart. Farage against the corrupt and inept uniparty looks less convincing if he is playing the same games as them.
But the SNP still runs Scotland even if its support has been dented by the campervan revelations. Starmer and Co survived taking freebies from Lord Allie. No-one bats an eyelid at Tory fundraisers' overrepresentation on the Honours List, but Farage was supposed to be different and now he looks like just another politician with his hand out.
Is anyone else a little unsure about the wisdom of all the parties boycotting the by-election?
I do entirely understand why, but I rather feel its saying to the voters of Clacton that they can't be trusted.
That's one interpretation, but a minority one I think.
It can be a minority one, but still shift the election result. If 10% of people think that way and are more sympathetic to Farage, then Farage is 10% up.
I doubt the turnout will be even half of the general election vote. The header headline asks the right QTWTAIN.
I meant in the subsequent by-election, the one that matters.
Is anyone else a little unsure about the wisdom of all the parties boycotting the by-election?
I do entirely understand why, but I rather feel its saying to the voters of Clacton that they can't be trusted.
That's one interpretation, but a minority one I think.
It can be a minority one, but still shift the election result. If 10% of people think that way and are more sympathetic to Farage, then Farage is 10% up.
I doubt the turnout will be even half of the general election vote. The header headline asks the right QTWTAIN.
I meant in the subsequent by-election, the one that matters.
You expect Binface to apply for the Hundreds ?
Difficult to play cricket with such a restricted field of vision. Good safety gear though.
If Farage loses, does the investigation into his joyous and no-strings £5m continue?
No, as its not criminal, its parliamentary surrounding if he has adheres to the rules MPs are required to follow upon being elected e.g. registering their interests. Its now on hold until the result of the by-election, then if he wins it will resume. There is also a suggestion that as he is a "new MP" the 12 month period restarts, so they can't do new investigations back 3 years ago i.e. 2 years when he was first elected + the 12 months.
That’s “new” MP argument is specious
It will tell us the mettle of the Commissioner if they try to avoid a ruling on that basis, it would be very OFCOM
Just refuse to allow the resignation until the investigation is completed.
The Chancellor refused to appoint Henry Cadogan MP for Reading to the Chiltern Hundreds in 1842 because he believed the MP was attempting to vacate his seat to conceal corrupt financial compromises and electoral bribery. https://x.com/RhonddaBryant/status/2074739497145598096
These days, who determines whether such an appointment is made or refused?
Believe it is the second Lord of the treasury that they report to
Is anyone else a little unsure about the wisdom of all the parties boycotting the by-election?
I do entirely understand why, but I rather feel its saying to the voters of Clacton that they can't be trusted.
That's one interpretation, but a minority one I think.
It can be a minority one, but still shift the election result. If 10% of people think that way and are more sympathetic to Farage, then Farage is 10% up.
I doubt the turnout will be even half of the general election vote. The header headline asks the right QTWTAIN.
I meant in the subsequent by-election, the one that matters.
You expect Binface to apply for the Hundreds ?
Difficult to play cricket with such a restricted field of vision. Good safety gear though.
He wouldn't be playing cricket in the Hundred, so that doesn't apply.
Did he get this idea from Putin (who also does this) ?
Trump arrived in Turkey with a 1,400-strong delegation—including staff responsible for collecting and disposing of his biological waste—according to *The Guardian* and Turkish media.
Did he get this idea from Putin (who also does this) ?
Trump arrived in Turkey with a 1,400-strong delegation—including staff responsible for collecting and disposing of his biological waste—according to *The Guardian* and Turkish media.
Disability benefits in England and Wales are “not fit for purpose” and the entire assessment system must be redrawn as part of a radical welfare overhaul, the government’s landmark review of personal independence payments will say.
The Guardian understands the review will conclude that the points-based system of assessment is in effect worthless because of the rising number of new conditions – particularly relating to mental health – that can fluctuate considerably in severity.
The review by the disability minister, Stephen Timms, which was commissioned in the aftermath of Keir Starmer’s U-turn on welfare cuts, will also conclude that the assessment process is dehumanising for disabled people and the system actively hinders people from seeking work.
Yusuf on R4 Today this morning was toecurlingly awful. The sense that Reform can only deal with stuff by shouting over questions and changing the subject is palpable. It felt like he had nowhere to go and nothing to say. Clearing the debris will take time but I think it's over for Reform in the sense that they will never lead or be part of a government.
One to watch: Danny Kruger. Since 6th July he has posted on X exactly once, on the subject of Capita's many failings.
By contrast to Yusuf, Binface on R4 Today this morning was rather good. Sharp cookie.
Did he get this idea from Putin (who also does this) ?
Trump arrived in Turkey with a 1,400-strong delegation—including staff responsible for collecting and disposing of his biological waste—according to *The Guardian* and Turkish media.
R4 programme on jellyfish blocking nuclear power station water cooling systems this afternoon.... "why are there jellyfish blooms"
Will be listening just to check whether it is as suspected so monumentally stupid as to ignore the warming effect of the power station. The answer is that the jellyfish breed in the warmed water of the cooling system
Sailed since I was a child in an estuary with a now decommissioned power station, while it was operating there were regular enormous blooms of jellyfish, since it stopped no jellyfish blooms despite the climate having warmed since. There's also been a return of seal colonies and the local shellfish are now safe to eat because the water temperature in the estuary is no longer elevated.
On topic: yes, the fact the establishment aren't fighting the seat makes his point all the more clear.
Farage IS the establishment these days. He's desperate given the collapse in his personal popularity to set himself up as anti-establishment when his best mate is POTUS, he's welcomed Tory defectors with open arms, and he willingly accepts funding from our tech overlords.
The idea that Dulwich educated Farage is a man of the "people" is what makes him "populist". It doesn't make it true. His party has support of roughly 26% of the population. That's less than Sunak's Tories. That it's beating the rest is simply an indication of how divided the nation is. No one speaks for "the people". We don't speak as one.
Yusuf on R4 Today this morning was toecurlingly awful. The sense that Reform can only deal with stuff by shouting over questions and changing the subject is palpable. It felt like he had nowhere to go and nothing to say. Clearing the debris will take time but I think it's over for Reform in the sense that they will never lead or be part of a government.
One to watch: Danny Kruger. Since 6th July he has posted on X exactly once, on the subject of Capita's many failings.
By contrast to Yusuf, Binface on R4 Today this morning was rather good. Sharp cookie.
In addition to writing for HIGNFY, The Thick of It and producing a load of tv shows and podcasts (mainly for the BBC), he is part of the team that writes the questions for Only Connect.
So not exactly surprising he is media savvy and doesn't come across as a moron.
Did he get this idea from Putin (who also does this) ?
Trump arrived in Turkey with a 1,400-strong delegation—including staff responsible for collecting and disposing of his biological waste—according to *The Guardian* and Turkish media.
The media have no interest in following the so called Clacton campaign .
With the Greens not standing they don’t even have the polar opposites going up against each other narrative . Farage will be really pissed off .
Reform can spin this as much as they like but the opposition parties point that any by-election should have waited till after the investigation reported seems fair and would be supported by the vast majority of the public .
But is the investigation going to say anything we don’t already know? The investigation isn’t investigating, digging out new evidence. It’s just judging on what’s known.
Is anyone here going to change their mind based on what the investigation says?
Unlikely but the report could determine whether Farage intentionally or unintentionally failed to report .
The code is pretty clear that if in doubt report any donations in the previous year before you became an MP . The big problem for Farage is the changing reasons , so it was security then it was a reward for Brexit and then he just said he could spend the money on whatever he wanted .
The report has no special magic ability to see inside Farage’s head. They can make a judgement whether Farage intentionally or unintentionally failed to report. I can make that judgement right now too (intentionally).
I am currently of the view that the best approach is to have an independent, anti-corruption candidate, and you make the whole campaign about this one question. You say that Farage triggered the by-election on the issue, so that’s what you’re going to talk about. Weeks of Farage failing to answer questions, or changing reasons, would follow.
What the report can and will do is set out how much money and support was received, how it was spent, why that expenditure is "political" and not "personal" and destroy the lies and evasions that Farage has told about this. In other words the facts.
Maybe but that seems to be more of an issue with the Cottrell money. The Harborne £5 million does look like a gift and is beside the millions given separately to the party, which is for the Electoral Commission to worry about.
"Looks like" is doing a lot of heavy lifting here. The gift appears to be perilously close to money laundering, and indeed has been reported by banks as suspicious activity under money laundering legislation. Farage was de-banked for reasons that were confidential at the time, but may not remain so. Farage seems to be in even more hot water than the Sunday Times investigation suggested, which explains this frankly fairly desperate throw of the dice.
Ukraine hit two more oil refineries overnight, in Saratov and Tartarstan. That's twice they've hit more than one refinery in a single night this month, which brings the total to seven refineries so far in July.
The Financial Times published this chart earlier in the month, and Ukraine are well on the way to taking this campaign up another notch. They also hit an oil pumping station in Ufa, and 6 more ships trying to supply Crimea
The three old mainstream parties have always been a bit hamstrung in their attacks on Farage- attacking him without insulting his supporters is a tricky line to hold. I suspect that it's one of the reasons that left voters have peeled off to the Greens; they are freer to.attack, and do.
A bloke with a bin on his head needs not have such scruples.
There are 5million reasons you should vote for Count Binface.
I suspect that’s going to be repeated often enough that everyone in Clacton will know Farage has been bribed
Mr. eek, that's very unfair. Farage has received £5m from a billionaire in exchange for no favours at all.
Sadly, and to my great surprise, no billionaire has yet given me £5m on the same basis, but I remain hopeful they will.
Reform still has the issue of scaling up. £5mn won't buy you a lot of organisation but if you get free media coverage then you get the opportunity to reinforce your message without going to the expense of polling, canvassing and leafleting.
It's very much an American playbook with a drama every so often where you create a strawman for you to fight and defeat. The side effect of normalising corruption is just a bonus.
Yusuf on R4 Today this morning was toecurlingly awful. The sense that Reform can only deal with stuff by shouting over questions and changing the subject is palpable. It felt like he had nowhere to go and nothing to say. Clearing the debris will take time but I think it's over for Reform in the sense that they will never lead or be part of a government.
One to watch: Danny Kruger. Since 6th July he has posted on X exactly once, on the subject of Capita's many failings.
By contrast to Yusuf, Binface on R4 Today this morning was rather good. Sharp cookie.
In addition to writing for HIGNFY, The Thick of It and producing a load of tv shows and podcasts (mainly for the BBC), he is part of the team that writes the questions for Only Connect.
So not exactly surprising he is media savvy and doesn't come across as a moron.
Yusuf on R4 Today this morning was toecurlingly awful. The sense that Reform can only deal with stuff by shouting over questions and changing the subject is palpable. It felt like he had nowhere to go and nothing to say. Clearing the debris will take time but I think it's over for Reform in the sense that they will never lead or be part of a government.
One to watch: Danny Kruger. Since 6th July he has posted on X exactly once, on the subject of Capita's many failings.
By contrast to Yusuf, Binface on R4 Today this morning was rather good. Sharp cookie.
I thought he was a bit embarrassing. The voice was irritating and it was all too arch - whilst I would love him to beat Farage I think he would appeal more to the voters of Clacton if he kept the talking to a minimum and used a good social media and poster game.
Meanwhile, the US/Iran war starts up again. It seems that their participation in the WC was the only basis on which it ever stopped. Both Houses of Congress have passed resolutions stating that Trump is not permitted to order such a war without their prior approval. What are they going to do about it?
Iran started it this time, bombing three ships in the Gulf yesterday and aiming missiles at Kuwait this morning.
Yusuf on R4 Today this morning was toecurlingly awful. The sense that Reform can only deal with stuff by shouting over questions and changing the subject is palpable. It felt like he had nowhere to go and nothing to say. Clearing the debris will take time but I think it's over for Reform in the sense that they will never lead or be part of a government.
One to watch: Danny Kruger. Since 6th July he has posted on X exactly once, on the subject of Capita's many failings.
By contrast to Yusuf, Binface on R4 Today this morning was rather good. Sharp cookie.
In addition to writing for HIGNFY, The Thick of It and producing a load of tv shows and podcasts (mainly for the BBC), he is part of the team that writes the questions for Only Connect.
So not exactly surprising he is media savvy and doesn't come across as a moron.
Ah see, Nigel was right - the Establishment.
It is a bit sad that even novelty characters are now Oxford grads with sensible day jobs, where as MRLP leader was proper wild one.
Is anyone else a little unsure about the wisdom of all the parties boycotting the by-election?
I do entirely understand why, but I rather feel its saying to the voters of Clacton that they can't be trusted.
Yes. I agree with their argument - that this is a vanity by-election from Farage, intended to pre-empt a more damaging by-election after the standards inquiry has completed - but I kinda feel that is an argument the parties should take to the voters, rather than boycotting the election.
Two deeply unserious carpetbaggers with insane manifestoes who pretend to be anti-establishment and are embroiled in innumerable legal troubles entirely born of their own grifting and stupidity.
And a bloke with a bin on his head.
Who is Fox? Been sleeping.
Lawrence Fox, everyone's favourite fascist, failed actor and former husband of Billie Piper.
I believe the correct formulation is "former actor and failed husband of Billie Piper".
On topic: yes, the fact the establishment aren't fighting the seat makes his point all the more clear.
Farage has withdrawn?! I missed that, when did it happen?
Nick Robinson to Zia Yusuf: "You say this is all about standing up to the establishment. "You're a multi-millionaire. You made your money selling luxury helicopter charters and rare wines to the super-wealthy. "Nigel Farage is a public schoolboy, a former commodities trader who gets £5m gifts from his friends and lives in a 5-storey house next to Buckingham Palace courtesy of a man convicted of fraud. "Do you really think you are in a position at Reform UK to claim not to be part of the super-wealthy, self-serving establishment?" https://x.com/KevinASchofield/status/2074757620825469092
The media have no interest in following the so called Clacton campaign .
With the Greens not standing they don’t even have the polar opposites going up against each other narrative . Farage will be really pissed off .
Reform can spin this as much as they like but the opposition parties point that any by-election should have waited till after the investigation reported seems fair and would be supported by the vast majority of the public .
But is the investigation going to say anything we don’t already know? The investigation isn’t investigating, digging out new evidence. It’s just judging on what’s known.
Is anyone here going to change their mind based on what the investigation says?
Unlikely but the report could determine whether Farage intentionally or unintentionally failed to report .
The code is pretty clear that if in doubt report any donations in the previous year before you became an MP . The big problem for Farage is the changing reasons , so it was security then it was a reward for Brexit and then he just said he could spend the money on whatever he wanted .
The report has no special magic ability to see inside Farage’s head. They can make a judgement whether Farage intentionally or unintentionally failed to report. I can make that judgement right now too (intentionally).
I am currently of the view that the best approach is to have an independent, anti-corruption candidate, and you make the whole campaign about this one question. You say that Farage triggered the by-election on the issue, so that’s what you’re going to talk about. Weeks of Farage failing to answer questions, or changing reasons, would follow.
What the report can and will do is set out how much money and support was received, how it was spent, why that expenditure is "political" and not "personal" and destroy the lies and evasions that Farage has told about this. In other words the facts.
Maybe but that seems to be more of an issue with the Cottrell money. The Harborne £5 million does look like a gift and is beside the millions given separately to the party, which is for the Electoral Commission to worry about.
"Looks like" is doing a lot of heavy lifting here. The gift appears to be perilously close to money laundering, and indeed has been reported by banks as suspicious activity under money laundering legislation. Farage was de-banked for reasons that were confidential at the time, but may not remain so. Farage seems to be in even more hot water than the Sunday Times investigation suggested, which explains this frankly fairly desperate throw of the dice.
The banks think withdrawing 10 grand for a car counts as "suspicious activity" these days.
The media have no interest in following the so called Clacton campaign .
With the Greens not standing they don’t even have the polar opposites going up against each other narrative . Farage will be really pissed off .
Reform can spin this as much as they like but the opposition parties point that any by-election should have waited till after the investigation reported seems fair and would be supported by the vast majority of the public .
But is the investigation going to say anything we don’t already know? The investigation isn’t investigating, digging out new evidence. It’s just judging on what’s known.
Is anyone here going to change their mind based on what the investigation says?
Unlikely but the report could determine whether Farage intentionally or unintentionally failed to report .
The code is pretty clear that if in doubt report any donations in the previous year before you became an MP . The big problem for Farage is the changing reasons , so it was security then it was a reward for Brexit and then he just said he could spend the money on whatever he wanted .
The report has no special magic ability to see inside Farage’s head. They can make a judgement whether Farage intentionally or unintentionally failed to report. I can make that judgement right now too (intentionally).
I am currently of the view that the best approach is to have an independent, anti-corruption candidate, and you make the whole campaign about this one question. You say that Farage triggered the by-election on the issue, so that’s what you’re going to talk about. Weeks of Farage failing to answer questions, or changing reasons, would follow.
What the report can and will do is set out how much money and support was received, how it was spent, why that expenditure is "political" and not "personal" and destroy the lies and evasions that Farage has told about this. In other words the facts.
Maybe but that seems to be more of an issue with the Cottrell money. The Harborne £5 million does look like a gift and is beside the millions given separately to the party, which is for the Electoral Commission to worry about.
"Looks like" is doing a lot of heavy lifting here. The gift appears to be perilously close to money laundering, and indeed has been reported by banks as suspicious activity under money laundering legislation. Farage was de-banked for reasons that were confidential at the time, but may not remain so. Farage seems to be in even more hot water than the Sunday Times investigation suggested, which explains this frankly fairly desperate throw of the dice.
The banks think withdrawing 10 grand for a car counts as "suspicious activity" these days.
Tbf, if you withdrew 10 grand in crypto I'd be suspicious.
The media have no interest in following the so called Clacton campaign .
With the Greens not standing they don’t even have the polar opposites going up against each other narrative . Farage will be really pissed off .
Reform can spin this as much as they like but the opposition parties point that any by-election should have waited till after the investigation reported seems fair and would be supported by the vast majority of the public .
But is the investigation going to say anything we don’t already know? The investigation isn’t investigating, digging out new evidence. It’s just judging on what’s known.
Is anyone here going to change their mind based on what the investigation says?
Unlikely but the report could determine whether Farage intentionally or unintentionally failed to report .
The code is pretty clear that if in doubt report any donations in the previous year before you became an MP . The big problem for Farage is the changing reasons , so it was security then it was a reward for Brexit and then he just said he could spend the money on whatever he wanted .
The report has no special magic ability to see inside Farage’s head. They can make a judgement whether Farage intentionally or unintentionally failed to report. I can make that judgement right now too (intentionally).
I am currently of the view that the best approach is to have an independent, anti-corruption candidate, and you make the whole campaign about this one question. You say that Farage triggered the by-election on the issue, so that’s what you’re going to talk about. Weeks of Farage failing to answer questions, or changing reasons, would follow.
What the report can and will do is set out how much money and support was received, how it was spent, why that expenditure is "political" and not "personal" and destroy the lies and evasions that Farage has told about this. In other words the facts.
Maybe but that seems to be more of an issue with the Cottrell money. The Harborne £5 million does look like a gift and is beside the millions given separately to the party, which is for the Electoral Commission to worry about.
"Looks like" is doing a lot of heavy lifting here. The gift appears to be perilously close to money laundering, and indeed has been reported by banks as suspicious activity under money laundering legislation. Farage was de-banked for reasons that were confidential at the time, but may not remain so. Farage seems to be in even more hot water than the Sunday Times investigation suggested, which explains this frankly fairly desperate throw of the dice.
The banks think withdrawing 10 grand for a car counts as "suspicious activity" these days.
Harborne is part of the owners of "stable coin" Tether that by even the standards of crypto has long been seen as very iffy e.g. they have repeatedly failed to prove they can actually match it 1:1 with USD which is the whole point of stable coins. I imagine all this transactions of any size get flagged.
The Chancellor refused to appoint Henry Cadogan MP for Reading to the Chiltern Hundreds in 1842 because he believed the MP was attempting to vacate his seat to conceal corrupt financial compromises and electoral bribery. https://x.com/RhonddaBryant/status/2074739497145598096
These days, who determines whether such an appointment is made or refused?
The Chancellor. And it’s only convention stopping them “resigning” any MP they want.
I don't think that's right. It's never been tested as no Chancellor has done it to my knowledge, but there's a pretty strong prima facie case for prosecution for misconduct in public office if the Chancellor used a power to appoint someone to a role they didn't want in order maliciously to disqualify them from office against their will.
Yusuf on R4 Today this morning was toecurlingly awful. The sense that Reform can only deal with stuff by shouting over questions and changing the subject is palpable. It felt like he had nowhere to go and nothing to say. Clearing the debris will take time but I think it's over for Reform in the sense that they will never lead or be part of a government.
One to watch: Danny Kruger. Since 6th July he has posted on X exactly once, on the subject of Capita's many failings.
By contrast to Yusuf, Binface on R4 Today this morning was rather good. Sharp cookie.
In addition to writing for HIGNFY, The Thick of It and producing a load of tv shows and podcasts (mainly for the BBC), he is part of the team that writes the questions for Only Connect.
So not exactly surprising he is media savvy and doesn't come across as a moron.
Ah see, Nigel was right - the Establishment.
It is a bit sad that even novelty characters are now Oxford grads with sensible day jobs, where as MRLP leader was proper wild one.
It won't be in the least sad if he spikes Farage's cynical, desperation-driven stunt though. For which he doesn't need to win he just needs a big vote.
Yusuf on R4 Today this morning was toecurlingly awful. The sense that Reform can only deal with stuff by shouting over questions and changing the subject is palpable. It felt like he had nowhere to go and nothing to say. Clearing the debris will take time but I think it's over for Reform in the sense that they will never lead or be part of a government.
One to watch: Danny Kruger. Since 6th July he has posted on X exactly once, on the subject of Capita's many failings.
By contrast to Yusuf, Binface on R4 Today this morning was rather good. Sharp cookie.
In addition to writing for HIGNFY, The Thick of It and producing a load of tv shows and podcasts (mainly for the BBC), he is part of the team that writes the questions for Only Connect.
So not exactly surprising he is media savvy and doesn't come across as a moron.
Ah see, Nigel was right - the Establishment.
It is a bit sad that even novelty characters are now Oxford grads with sensible day jobs, where as MRLP leader was proper wild one.
It won't be in the least sad if he spikes Farage's cynical, desperation-driven stunt though. For which he doesn't need to win he just needs a big vote.
Now come on. The funniest outcome is if he wins on a coin toss.
Yusuf on R4 Today this morning was toecurlingly awful. The sense that Reform can only deal with stuff by shouting over questions and changing the subject is palpable. It felt like he had nowhere to go and nothing to say. Clearing the debris will take time but I think it's over for Reform in the sense that they will never lead or be part of a government.
One to watch: Danny Kruger. Since 6th July he has posted on X exactly once, on the subject of Capita's many failings.
By contrast to Yusuf, Binface on R4 Today this morning was rather good. Sharp cookie.
In addition to writing for HIGNFY, The Thick of It and producing a load of tv shows and podcasts (mainly for the BBC), he is part of the team that writes the questions for Only Connect.
So not exactly surprising he is media savvy and doesn't come across as a moron.
Ah see, Nigel was right - the Establishment.
It is a bit sad that even novelty characters are now Oxford grads with sensible day jobs, where as MRLP leader was proper wild one.
It won't be in the least sad if he spikes Farage's cynical, desperation-driven stunt though. For which he doesn't need to win he just needs a big vote.
Here you are calling it a desperate stunt yet you cant stop talking about it.
On topic: yes, the fact the establishment aren't fighting the seat makes his point all the more clear.
Farage has withdrawn?! I missed that, when did it happen?
Nick Robinson to Zia Yusuf: "You say this is all about standing up to the establishment. "You're a multi-millionaire. You made your money selling luxury helicopter charters and rare wines to the super-wealthy. "Nigel Farage is a public schoolboy, a former commodities trader who gets £5m gifts from his friends and lives in a 5-storey house next to Buckingham Palace courtesy of a man convicted of fraud. "Do you really think you are in a position at Reform UK to claim not to be part of the super-wealthy, self-serving establishment?" https://x.com/KevinASchofield/status/2074757620825469092
The problem with that line of argument is that the anti-establishment leadership has always been part of the establishment.
The media have no interest in following the so called Clacton campaign .
With the Greens not standing they don’t even have the polar opposites going up against each other narrative . Farage will be really pissed off .
Reform can spin this as much as they like but the opposition parties point that any by-election should have waited till after the investigation reported seems fair and would be supported by the vast majority of the public .
But is the investigation going to say anything we don’t already know? The investigation isn’t investigating, digging out new evidence. It’s just judging on what’s known.
Is anyone here going to change their mind based on what the investigation says?
Unlikely but the report could determine whether Farage intentionally or unintentionally failed to report .
The code is pretty clear that if in doubt report any donations in the previous year before you became an MP . The big problem for Farage is the changing reasons , so it was security then it was a reward for Brexit and then he just said he could spend the money on whatever he wanted .
The report has no special magic ability to see inside Farage’s head. They can make a judgement whether Farage intentionally or unintentionally failed to report. I can make that judgement right now too (intentionally).
I am currently of the view that the best approach is to have an independent, anti-corruption candidate, and you make the whole campaign about this one question. You say that Farage triggered the by-election on the issue, so that’s what you’re going to talk about. Weeks of Farage failing to answer questions, or changing reasons, would follow.
What the report can and will do is set out how much money and support was received, how it was spent, why that expenditure is "political" and not "personal" and destroy the lies and evasions that Farage has told about this. In other words the facts.
Maybe but that seems to be more of an issue with the Cottrell money. The Harborne £5 million does look like a gift and is beside the millions given separately to the party, which is for the Electoral Commission to worry about.
"Looks like" is doing a lot of heavy lifting here. The gift appears to be perilously close to money laundering, and indeed has been reported by banks as suspicious activity under money laundering legislation. Farage was de-banked for reasons that were confidential at the time, but may not remain so. Farage seems to be in even more hot water than the Sunday Times investigation suggested, which explains this frankly fairly desperate throw of the dice.
Not at Farage's end it doesn't, wherever Harborne got the money provided it was not from Farage himself, and AML is notoriously easy to trigger as many punters have found.
Did he get this idea from Putin (who also does this) ?
Trump arrived in Turkey with a 1,400-strong delegation—including staff responsible for collecting and disposing of his biological waste—according to *The Guardian* and Turkish media.
If true, that’s a big FU to Turkey as a fellow NATO member.
That sort of insane level of security is what presidents do when travelling to China or North Korea, not to friendly countries. Every water cup and dinner plate goes on out the plane and comes back on the plane.
Farage is playing silly games. The other parties have responded by saying they can play silly games too.
The alternative response would have been, “Bring it on. We believe in our case. We will fight you any time, any place.”
They could have. They know they'd lose and are making the best of it, aided by the fact Farage's logic makes no sense (the public voting for him does not mean he followed the rules).
Where we diverge is you seem to think voters will have no knowledge of why the parties did not stand the first time, since you said they'd need it explained to them, but apparently they will super care about it.
I think if there is a second by election (and there might not be after all) it will fire up anyone who dislikes Farage and even some former supporters, and they won't dwell on the last one.
The public pay far, far, far less attention to politics than we do here. The public make snap judgements. This by-election, why Farage called it, why others aren’t standing, it’s all very Westminster bubble. Lots of people, all they’re going to hear is “Farage won a by-election” and then “Farage has to face another by-election”. That, for some, will make Farage sound like a winner who is being persecuted by the system.
That seems to imply that they don't hear "Farage has called his own by-election".
Yusuf on R4 Today this morning was toecurlingly awful. The sense that Reform can only deal with stuff by shouting over questions and changing the subject is palpable. It felt like he had nowhere to go and nothing to say. Clearing the debris will take time but I think it's over for Reform in the sense that they will never lead or be part of a government.
One to watch: Danny Kruger. Since 6th July he has posted on X exactly once, on the subject of Capita's many failings.
By contrast to Yusuf, Binface on R4 Today this morning was rather good. Sharp cookie.
In addition to writing for HIGNFY, The Thick of It and producing a load of tv shows and podcasts (mainly for the BBC), he is part of the team that writes the questions for Only Connect.
So not exactly surprising he is media savvy and doesn't come across as a moron.
Ah see, Nigel was right - the Establishment.
It is a bit sad that even novelty characters are now Oxford grads with sensible day jobs, where as MRLP leader was proper wild one.
It won't be in the least sad if he spikes Farage's cynical, desperation-driven stunt though. For which he doesn't need to win he just needs a big vote.
Here you are calling it a desperate stunt yet you cant stop talking about it.
Did he get this idea from Putin (who also does this) ?
Trump arrived in Turkey with a 1,400-strong delegation—including staff responsible for collecting and disposing of his biological waste—according to *The Guardian* and Turkish media.
If true, that’s a big FU to Turkey as a fellow NATO member.
That sort of insane level of security is what presidents do when travelling to China or North Korea, not to friendly countries. Every water cup and dinner plate goes on out the plane and comes back on the plane.
Shouldnt he just bring a poo from a 21 year old marathon runner and flush that. ?
Yusuf on R4 Today this morning was toecurlingly awful. The sense that Reform can only deal with stuff by shouting over questions and changing the subject is palpable. It felt like he had nowhere to go and nothing to say. Clearing the debris will take time but I think it's over for Reform in the sense that they will never lead or be part of a government.
One to watch: Danny Kruger. Since 6th July he has posted on X exactly once, on the subject of Capita's many failings.
By contrast to Yusuf, Binface on R4 Today this morning was rather good. Sharp cookie.
In addition to writing for HIGNFY, The Thick of It and producing a load of tv shows and podcasts (mainly for the BBC), he is part of the team that writes the questions for Only Connect.
So not exactly surprising he is media savvy and doesn't come across as a moron.
Ah see, Nigel was right - the Establishment.
It is a bit sad that even novelty characters are now Oxford grads with sensible day jobs, where as MRLP leader was proper wild one.
It won't be in the least sad if he spikes Farage's cynical, desperation-driven stunt though. For which he doesn't need to win he just needs a big vote.
Here you are calling it a desperate stunt yet you cant stop talking about it.
On topic: yes, the fact the establishment aren't fighting the seat makes his point all the more clear.
Farage has withdrawn?! I missed that, when did it happen?
Nick Robinson to Zia Yusuf: "You say this is all about standing up to the establishment. "You're a multi-millionaire. You made your money selling luxury helicopter charters and rare wines to the super-wealthy. "Nigel Farage is a public schoolboy, a former commodities trader who gets £5m gifts from his friends and lives in a 5-storey house next to Buckingham Palace courtesy of a man convicted of fraud. "Do you really think you are in a position at Reform UK to claim not to be part of the super-wealthy, self-serving establishment?" https://x.com/KevinASchofield/status/2074757620825469092
Exactly. That is the danger for Farage, that he comes to be seen as part of the ‘establishment’ he normally rails against. Mind you, Tony Blair gave it a fair run, and Boris too, not to mention Donald ‘drain the swamp’ Trump.
Ukraine hit two more oil refineries overnight, in Saratov and Tartarstan. That's twice they've hit more than one refinery in a single night this month, which brings the total to seven refineries so far in July.
The Financial Times published this chart earlier in the month, and Ukraine are well on the way to taking this campaign up another notch. They also hit an oil pumping station in Ufa, and 6 more ships trying to supply Crimea
And a military airfield in Voronezh, resulting in a large fire, so one presumes that fuel storage at the airfield was a likely target.
R4 programme on jellyfish blocking nuclear power station water cooling systems this afternoon.... "why are there jellyfish blooms"
Will be listening just to check whether it is as suspected so monumentally stupid as to ignore the warming effect of the power station. The answer is that the jellyfish breed in the warmed water of the cooling system
Sailed since I was a child in an estuary with a now decommissioned power station, while it was operating there were regular enormous blooms of jellyfish, since it stopped no jellyfish blooms despite the climate having warmed since. There's also been a return of seal colonies and the local shellfish are now safe to eat because the water temperature in the estuary is no longer elevated.
Did you sail near Bradwell? From Mersea or adjacent?
The media have no interest in following the so called Clacton campaign .
With the Greens not standing they don’t even have the polar opposites going up against each other narrative . Farage will be really pissed off .
Reform can spin this as much as they like but the opposition parties point that any by-election should have waited till after the investigation reported seems fair and would be supported by the vast majority of the public .
But is the investigation going to say anything we don’t already know? The investigation isn’t investigating, digging out new evidence. It’s just judging on what’s known.
Is anyone here going to change their mind based on what the investigation says?
Unlikely but the report could determine whether Farage intentionally or unintentionally failed to report .
The code is pretty clear that if in doubt report any donations in the previous year before you became an MP . The big problem for Farage is the changing reasons , so it was security then it was a reward for Brexit and then he just said he could spend the money on whatever he wanted .
The report has no special magic ability to see inside Farage’s head. They can make a judgement whether Farage intentionally or unintentionally failed to report. I can make that judgement right now too (intentionally).
I am currently of the view that the best approach is to have an independent, anti-corruption candidate, and you make the whole campaign about this one question. You say that Farage triggered the by-election on the issue, so that’s what you’re going to talk about. Weeks of Farage failing to answer questions, or changing reasons, would follow.
What the report can and will do is set out how much money and support was received, how it was spent, why that expenditure is "political" and not "personal" and destroy the lies and evasions that Farage has told about this. In other words the facts.
Maybe but that seems to be more of an issue with the Cottrell money. The Harborne £5 million does look like a gift and is beside the millions given separately to the party, which is for the Electoral Commission to worry about.
"Looks like" is doing a lot of heavy lifting here. The gift appears to be perilously close to money laundering, and indeed has been reported by banks as suspicious activity under money laundering legislation. Farage was de-banked for reasons that were confidential at the time, but may not remain so. Farage seems to be in even more hot water than the Sunday Times investigation suggested, which explains this frankly fairly desperate throw of the dice.
The banks think withdrawing 10 grand for a car counts as "suspicious activity" these days.
Harborne is part of the owners of "stable coin" Tether that by even the standards of crypto has long been seen as very iffy e.g. they have repeatedly failed to prove they can actually match it 1:1 with USD which is the whole point of stable coins. I imagine all this transactions of any size get flagged.
Having a currency that attempts to track another currency probably ends in tears, I thought everyone learnt that on 16th September 1992.
The media have no interest in following the so called Clacton campaign .
With the Greens not standing they don’t even have the polar opposites going up against each other narrative . Farage will be really pissed off .
Reform can spin this as much as they like but the opposition parties point that any by-election should have waited till after the investigation reported seems fair and would be supported by the vast majority of the public .
But is the investigation going to say anything we don’t already know? The investigation isn’t investigating, digging out new evidence. It’s just judging on what’s known.
Is anyone here going to change their mind based on what the investigation says?
Unlikely but the report could determine whether Farage intentionally or unintentionally failed to report .
The code is pretty clear that if in doubt report any donations in the previous year before you became an MP . The big problem for Farage is the changing reasons , so it was security then it was a reward for Brexit and then he just said he could spend the money on whatever he wanted .
The report has no special magic ability to see inside Farage’s head. They can make a judgement whether Farage intentionally or unintentionally failed to report. I can make that judgement right now too (intentionally).
I am currently of the view that the best approach is to have an independent, anti-corruption candidate, and you make the whole campaign about this one question. You say that Farage triggered the by-election on the issue, so that’s what you’re going to talk about. Weeks of Farage failing to answer questions, or changing reasons, would follow.
What the report can and will do is set out how much money and support was received, how it was spent, why that expenditure is "political" and not "personal" and destroy the lies and evasions that Farage has told about this. In other words the facts.
Maybe but that seems to be more of an issue with the Cottrell money. The Harborne £5 million does look like a gift and is beside the millions given separately to the party, which is for the Electoral Commission to worry about.
"Looks like" is doing a lot of heavy lifting here. The gift appears to be perilously close to money laundering, and indeed has been reported by banks as suspicious activity under money laundering legislation. Farage was de-banked for reasons that were confidential at the time, but may not remain so. Farage seems to be in even more hot water than the Sunday Times investigation suggested, which explains this frankly fairly desperate throw of the dice.
The banks think withdrawing 10 grand for a car counts as "suspicious activity" these days.
Harborne is part of the owners of "stable coin" Tether that by even the standards of crypto has long been seen as very iffy e.g. they have repeatedly failed to prove they can actually match it 1:1 with USD which is the whole point of stable coins. I imagine all this transactions of any size get flagged.
USDT “Tether” has looked very dodgy for a long time. It’s likely they’re doing something that looks like fractional reserve banking, but with nothing behind it and while telling everyone they have 1:1 actual US$.
If they get a serious ‘bank run’ they could be gone very quickly, but they are one of the lynchpins of the whole cryptocurrency ecosystem and could collapse a lot more than just themselves.
Ukraine hit two more oil refineries overnight, in Saratov and Tartarstan. That's twice they've hit more than one refinery in a single night this month, which brings the total to seven refineries so far in July.
The Financial Times published this chart earlier in the month, and Ukraine are well on the way to taking this campaign up another notch. They also hit an oil pumping station in Ufa, and 6 more ships trying to supply Crimea
The media have no interest in following the so called Clacton campaign .
With the Greens not standing they don’t even have the polar opposites going up against each other narrative . Farage will be really pissed off .
Reform can spin this as much as they like but the opposition parties point that any by-election should have waited till after the investigation reported seems fair and would be supported by the vast majority of the public .
But is the investigation going to say anything we don’t already know? The investigation isn’t investigating, digging out new evidence. It’s just judging on what’s known.
Is anyone here going to change their mind based on what the investigation says?
Unlikely but the report could determine whether Farage intentionally or unintentionally failed to report .
The code is pretty clear that if in doubt report any donations in the previous year before you became an MP . The big problem for Farage is the changing reasons , so it was security then it was a reward for Brexit and then he just said he could spend the money on whatever he wanted .
The report has no special magic ability to see inside Farage’s head. They can make a judgement whether Farage intentionally or unintentionally failed to report. I can make that judgement right now too (intentionally).
I am currently of the view that the best approach is to have an independent, anti-corruption candidate, and you make the whole campaign about this one question. You say that Farage triggered the by-election on the issue, so that’s what you’re going to talk about. Weeks of Farage failing to answer questions, or changing reasons, would follow.
What the report can and will do is set out how much money and support was received, how it was spent, why that expenditure is "political" and not "personal" and destroy the lies and evasions that Farage has told about this. In other words the facts.
Maybe but that seems to be more of an issue with the Cottrell money. The Harborne £5 million does look like a gift and is beside the millions given separately to the party, which is for the Electoral Commission to worry about.
"Looks like" is doing a lot of heavy lifting here. The gift appears to be perilously close to money laundering, and indeed has been reported by banks as suspicious activity under money laundering legislation. Farage was de-banked for reasons that were confidential at the time, but may not remain so. Farage seems to be in even more hot water than the Sunday Times investigation suggested, which explains this frankly fairly desperate throw of the dice.
The banks think withdrawing 10 grand for a car counts as "suspicious activity" these days.
Harborne is part of the owners of "stable coin" Tether that by even the standards of crypto has long been seen as very iffy e.g. they have repeatedly failed to prove they can actually match it 1:1 with USD which is the whole point of stable coins. I imagine all this transactions of any size get flagged.
Having a currency that attempts to track another currency probably ends in tears, I thought everyone learnt that on 16th September 1992.
In theory the well run ones don't track they convert one for one. USDC is another stable coin and people are less worried about that as they do seem to be able to prove they are shooting straight, Tether on the other hand don't seem to be able to prove that for every USDT they minted they have the $1 in reserve, its a complex web of assets and bonds and even then nobody can get it to add up.
Yusuf on R4 Today this morning was toecurlingly awful. The sense that Reform can only deal with stuff by shouting over questions and changing the subject is palpable. It felt like he had nowhere to go and nothing to say. Clearing the debris will take time but I think it's over for Reform in the sense that they will never lead or be part of a government.
One to watch: Danny Kruger. Since 6th July he has posted on X exactly once, on the subject of Capita's many failings.
By contrast to Yusuf, Binface on R4 Today this morning was rather good. Sharp cookie.
In addition to writing for HIGNFY, The Thick of It and producing a load of tv shows and podcasts (mainly for the BBC), he is part of the team that writes the questions for Only Connect.
So not exactly surprising he is media savvy and doesn't come across as a moron.
Ah see, Nigel was right - the Establishment.
It is a bit sad that even novelty characters are now Oxford grads with sensible day jobs, where as MRLP leader was proper wild one.
It won't be in the least sad if he spikes Farage's cynical, desperation-driven stunt though. For which he doesn't need to win he just needs a big vote.
Here you are calling it a desperate stunt yet you cant stop talking about it.
Well, duh. That's the whole point of a stunt.
Which just shows Farage has won.
Duh
Depends what they're talking about. If they're talking about the things Farage wants them to, yes.
At the moment, we're talking about how he's triggered a vanity by election over a £5 million gift in crypto that he failed to declare because it was purely personal and how he's up against a bloke dressed as a dustbin.
Not altogether sure that's what he had in mind (leaving aside the assumption) but definitely at the moment it's not looking like a cunning stunt.
Ukraine hit two more oil refineries overnight, in Saratov and Tartarstan. That's twice they've hit more than one refinery in a single night this month, which brings the total to seven refineries so far in July.
The Financial Times published this chart earlier in the month, and Ukraine are well on the way to taking this campaign up another notch. They also hit an oil pumping station in Ufa, and 6 more ships trying to supply Crimea
Don't know whether this has been commented on before, but a couple of by elections in Surrey yesterday, both seemed like comfortable LibDem holds and (almost) penny numbers for Reform.
The media have no interest in following the so called Clacton campaign .
With the Greens not standing they don’t even have the polar opposites going up against each other narrative . Farage will be really pissed off .
Reform can spin this as much as they like but the opposition parties point that any by-election should have waited till after the investigation reported seems fair and would be supported by the vast majority of the public .
But is the investigation going to say anything we don’t already know? The investigation isn’t investigating, digging out new evidence. It’s just judging on what’s known.
Is anyone here going to change their mind based on what the investigation says?
Unlikely but the report could determine whether Farage intentionally or unintentionally failed to report .
The code is pretty clear that if in doubt report any donations in the previous year before you became an MP . The big problem for Farage is the changing reasons , so it was security then it was a reward for Brexit and then he just said he could spend the money on whatever he wanted .
The report has no special magic ability to see inside Farage’s head. They can make a judgement whether Farage intentionally or unintentionally failed to report. I can make that judgement right now too (intentionally).
I am currently of the view that the best approach is to have an independent, anti-corruption candidate, and you make the whole campaign about this one question. You say that Farage triggered the by-election on the issue, so that’s what you’re going to talk about. Weeks of Farage failing to answer questions, or changing reasons, would follow.
What the report can and will do is set out how much money and support was received, how it was spent, why that expenditure is "political" and not "personal" and destroy the lies and evasions that Farage has told about this. In other words the facts.
Maybe but that seems to be more of an issue with the Cottrell money. The Harborne £5 million does look like a gift and is beside the millions given separately to the party, which is for the Electoral Commission to worry about.
"Looks like" is doing a lot of heavy lifting here. The gift appears to be perilously close to money laundering, and indeed has been reported by banks as suspicious activity under money laundering legislation. Farage was de-banked for reasons that were confidential at the time, but may not remain so. Farage seems to be in even more hot water than the Sunday Times investigation suggested, which explains this frankly fairly desperate throw of the dice.
The banks think withdrawing 10 grand for a car counts as "suspicious activity" these days.
Harborne is part of the owners of "stable coin" Tether that by even the standards of crypto has long been seen as very iffy e.g. they have repeatedly failed to prove they can actually match it 1:1 with USD which is the whole point of stable coins. I imagine all this transactions of any size get flagged.
USDT “Tether” has looked very dodgy for a long time. It’s likely they’re doing something that looks like fractional reserve banking, but with nothing behind it and while telling everyone they have 1:1 actual US$.
If they get a serious ‘bank run’ they could be gone very quickly, but they are one of the lynchpins of the whole cryptocurrency ecosystem and could collapse a lot more than just themselves.
Does anyone need to use stablecoins ? If you need to send $100, surely better for everyone (buyer and seller) to just accept the prevailing BTC price at the time (Currently 0.001615289 BTC)
Ukraine hit two more oil refineries overnight, in Saratov and Tartarstan. That's twice they've hit more than one refinery in a single night this month, which brings the total to seven refineries so far in July.
The Financial Times published this chart earlier in the month, and Ukraine are well on the way to taking this campaign up another notch. They also hit an oil pumping station in Ufa, and 6 more ships trying to supply Crimea
Yusuf on R4 Today this morning was toecurlingly awful. The sense that Reform can only deal with stuff by shouting over questions and changing the subject is palpable. It felt like he had nowhere to go and nothing to say. Clearing the debris will take time but I think it's over for Reform in the sense that they will never lead or be part of a government.
One to watch: Danny Kruger. Since 6th July he has posted on X exactly once, on the subject of Capita's many failings.
By contrast to Yusuf, Binface on R4 Today this morning was rather good. Sharp cookie.
In addition to writing for HIGNFY, The Thick of It and producing a load of tv shows and podcasts (mainly for the BBC), he is part of the team that writes the questions for Only Connect.
So not exactly surprising he is media savvy and doesn't come across as a moron.
Ah see, Nigel was right - the Establishment.
It is a bit sad that even novelty characters are now Oxford grads with sensible day jobs, where as MRLP leader was proper wild one.
It won't be in the least sad if he spikes Farage's cynical, desperation-driven stunt though. For which he doesn't need to win he just needs a big vote.
Here you are calling it a desperate stunt yet you cant stop talking about it.
I'm sorry if it peeves you and the rest of his supporters on here but I'm afraid that a transparently desperate stunt by the high profile politician leading the party topping the opinion polls is worthy of some PB comment.
But worry not, it'll be back to the tennis, the football, Trump's Iranian shambles and the advent of Supermanc soon enough.
Ukraine hit two more oil refineries overnight, in Saratov and Tartarstan. That's twice they've hit more than one refinery in a single night this month, which brings the total to seven refineries so far in July.
The Financial Times published this chart earlier in the month, and Ukraine are well on the way to taking this campaign up another notch. They also hit an oil pumping station in Ufa, and 6 more ships trying to supply Crimea
How much of Russia’s domestic heating is oil-based? Winter, after all, is coming.
A lot of domestic heating is from district heating systems. A central plant burns coal or gas and pumps hot water/steam around pipes across the local district.
Ukraine hit two more oil refineries overnight, in Saratov and Tartarstan. That's twice they've hit more than one refinery in a single night this month, which brings the total to seven refineries so far in July.
The Financial Times published this chart earlier in the month, and Ukraine are well on the way to taking this campaign up another notch. They also hit an oil pumping station in Ufa, and 6 more ships trying to supply Crimea
How much of Russia’s domestic heating is oil-based? Winter, after all, is coming.
At the moment they’re not even thinking that far ahead, they’re wondering if their farms have enough diesel for the harvest.
The old Soviet apartment blocks in large cities are almost all run on a central heating system, with a large oil-fired water heater in the basement that powers radiators around the building.
It’s not impossible that more remote parts of Russia encounter a serious humanitarian crisis this winter. The worry is that Putin, as with many previous leaders in that part of the world, doesn’t care too much about his own population and lets it happen.
If Russia leaves Ukraine, and the Politbureau all go to The Hague, then the international community will send as much aid as required.
Yusuf on R4 Today this morning was toecurlingly awful. The sense that Reform can only deal with stuff by shouting over questions and changing the subject is palpable. It felt like he had nowhere to go and nothing to say. Clearing the debris will take time but I think it's over for Reform in the sense that they will never lead or be part of a government.
One to watch: Danny Kruger. Since 6th July he has posted on X exactly once, on the subject of Capita's many failings.
By contrast to Yusuf, Binface on R4 Today this morning was rather good. Sharp cookie.
In addition to writing for HIGNFY, The Thick of It and producing a load of tv shows and podcasts (mainly for the BBC), he is part of the team that writes the questions for Only Connect.
So not exactly surprising he is media savvy and doesn't come across as a moron.
Ah see, Nigel was right - the Establishment.
It is a bit sad that even novelty characters are now Oxford grads with sensible day jobs, where as MRLP leader was proper wild one.
It won't be in the least sad if he spikes Farage's cynical, desperation-driven stunt though. For which he doesn't need to win he just needs a big vote.
Here you are calling it a desperate stunt yet you cant stop talking about it.
Well, duh. That's the whole point of a stunt.
Which just shows Farage has won.
Duh
Without the ground support that other parties have, all they have is stunts. And the media obliges.
On topic: yes, the fact the establishment aren't fighting the seat makes his point all the more clear.
Farage has withdrawn?! I missed that, when did it happen?
Nick Robinson to Zia Yusuf: "You say this is all about standing up to the establishment. "You're a multi-millionaire. You made your money selling luxury helicopter charters and rare wines to the super-wealthy. "Nigel Farage is a public schoolboy, a former commodities trader who gets £5m gifts from his friends and lives in a 5-storey house next to Buckingham Palace courtesy of a man convicted of fraud. "Do you really think you are in a position at Reform UK to claim not to be part of the super-wealthy, self-serving establishment?" https://x.com/KevinASchofield/status/2074757620825469092
The problem with that line of argument is that the anti-establishment leadership has always been part of the establishment.
I can see paths to this byelection not happening under these terms.
If that is the case, under my reading of the current Betfair rules the market might apply to the *real* by election. I say might because they are totally vague.
Anyone laying tories (in particular) should bear this in mind.
Solid rockets aren’t complex tech, in many ways. This is about giving a pile of money to traditional contractors.
Build a couple of factories.
And spend the money on making 10,000 of them.
Spend the money on buying shares in Fire Point, the Ukranian missile company, and have them build thousands at a fraction of the cost once they’ve built what they need for themselves.
There are going to be so many Ukranian defence companies ripe for investment and licensing deals after this war, the old school Western ones are going to have to step up to compete.
As has been said a hundred times, wartime procurement looks very different to peacetime procurement, and most of the legacy weapons manufacturers are still in peacetime mode.
Lawrence Fox has also confirmed he will stand in Clacton. Fox is a friend of Tommy Robinson and debated on the side as Tommy R at the Oxford Union only a few weeks ago so in the absence of Restore and if you ignore Binface it will be a straight fight between Farage and the even more hardline anti woke Islam sceptic Reclaim
The media have no interest in following the so called Clacton campaign .
With the Greens not standing they don’t even have the polar opposites going up against each other narrative . Farage will be really pissed off .
Reform can spin this as much as they like but the opposition parties point that any by-election should have waited till after the investigation reported seems fair and would be supported by the vast majority of the public .
But is the investigation going to say anything we don’t already know? The investigation isn’t investigating, digging out new evidence. It’s just judging on what’s known.
Is anyone here going to change their mind based on what the investigation says?
Unlikely but the report could determine whether Farage intentionally or unintentionally failed to report .
The code is pretty clear that if in doubt report any donations in the previous year before you became an MP . The big problem for Farage is the changing reasons , so it was security then it was a reward for Brexit and then he just said he could spend the money on whatever he wanted .
The report has no special magic ability to see inside Farage’s head. They can make a judgement whether Farage intentionally or unintentionally failed to report. I can make that judgement right now too (intentionally).
I am currently of the view that the best approach is to have an independent, anti-corruption candidate, and you make the whole campaign about this one question. You say that Farage triggered the by-election on the issue, so that’s what you’re going to talk about. Weeks of Farage failing to answer questions, or changing reasons, would follow.
What the report can and will do is set out how much money and support was received, how it was spent, why that expenditure is "political" and not "personal" and destroy the lies and evasions that Farage has told about this. In other words the facts.
Maybe but that seems to be more of an issue with the Cottrell money. The Harborne £5 million does look like a gift and is beside the millions given separately to the party, which is for the Electoral Commission to worry about.
"Looks like" is doing a lot of heavy lifting here. The gift appears to be perilously close to money laundering, and indeed has been reported by banks as suspicious activity under money laundering legislation. Farage was de-banked for reasons that were confidential at the time, but may not remain so. Farage seems to be in even more hot water than the Sunday Times investigation suggested, which explains this frankly fairly desperate throw of the dice.
The banks think withdrawing 10 grand for a car counts as "suspicious activity" these days.
Harborne is part of the owners of "stable coin" Tether that by even the standards of crypto has long been seen as very iffy e.g. they have repeatedly failed to prove they can actually match it 1:1 with USD which is the whole point of stable coins. I imagine all this transactions of any size get flagged.
USDT “Tether” has looked very dodgy for a long time. It’s likely they’re doing something that looks like fractional reserve banking, but with nothing behind it and while telling everyone they have 1:1 actual US$.
If they get a serious ‘bank run’ they could be gone very quickly, but they are one of the lynchpins of the whole cryptocurrency ecosystem and could collapse a lot more than just themselves.
Does anyone need to use stablecoins ? If you need to send $100, surely better for everyone (buyer and seller) to just accept the prevailing BTC price at the time (Currently 0.001615289 BTC)
They use stablecoins to “cash out” to “US$”, but remaining within the crypto ecosystem to avoid things like capital gains taxes and flags by banks for converting to actual dollars.
It’s like the available balance in your Betfair account.
Comments
Anything that isn’t the message “Farage took £5 million and kept it a secret” is a distraction. Farage has created a distraction successfully.
"Great news! I've found an amazing part for you. A movie directed by Spielberg!"
"Steven Spielberg!"
"No - Graham Spielberg, his cousin. But they've got Hanks in the lead!"
"Tom Hanks!"
"Not quite - Dave Hanks, his step-brother. I can also confirm that you'll have screentime with Beyonce!"
"Beyonce Knowles?"
"No, Beyonce Cruickshank, from Love Island. Fox is also on board!"
"Laurence Fox?"
"Yes"
The three old mainstream parties have always been a bit hamstrung in their attacks on Farage- attacking him without insulting his supporters is a tricky line to hold. I suspect that it's one of the reasons that left voters have peeled off to the Greens; they are freer to.attack, and do.
A bloke with a bin on his head needs not have such scruples.
Ironic, given that if we did return to the ways of the recent past that would include being in the EU, which I'm pretty sure the ReThree would not like.
Of course, returning to even older ways may be what they're after.
I suspect that’s going to be repeated often enough that everyone in Clacton will know Farage has been bribed
Sadly, and to my great surprise, no billionaire has yet given me £5m on the same basis, but I remain hopeful they will.
One to watch: Danny Kruger. Since 6th July he has posted on X exactly once, on the subject of Capita's many failings.
But the SNP still runs Scotland even if its support has been dented by the campervan revelations. Starmer and Co survived taking freebies from Lord Allie. No-one bats an eyelid at Tory fundraisers' overrepresentation on the Honours List, but Farage was supposed to be different and now he looks like just another politician with his hand out.
Just refuse to allow the resignation until the investigation is completed.
Trump arrived in Turkey with a 1,400-strong delegation—including staff responsible for collecting and disposing of his biological waste—according to *The Guardian* and Turkish media.
This measure is intended to prevent other countries from gleaning information about the American president's health...
https://x.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/2074746790755152032
@ElectionMapsUK
Westminster Voting Intention:
RFM: 27% (-1)
CON: 22% (+2)
LAB: 21% (-3)
LDM: 11% (-1)
GRN: 10% (=)
SNP: 2% (=)
Via @Moreincommon_, 3-6 Jul.
Changes w/ 26-28 Jun.
The Guardian understands the review will conclude that the points-based system of assessment is in effect worthless because of the rising number of new conditions – particularly relating to mental health – that can fluctuate considerably in severity.
The review by the disability minister, Stephen Timms, which was commissioned in the aftermath of Keir Starmer’s U-turn on welfare cuts, will also conclude that the assessment process is dehumanising for disabled people and the system actively hinders people from seeking work.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2026/jul/08/disability-benefits-not-fit-for-purpose-timms-review
Will be listening just to check whether it is as suspected so monumentally stupid as to ignore the warming effect of the power station. The answer is that the jellyfish breed in the warmed water of the cooling system
Sailed since I was a child in an estuary with a now decommissioned power station, while it was operating there were regular enormous blooms of jellyfish, since it stopped no jellyfish blooms despite the climate having warmed since. There's also been a return of seal colonies and the local shellfish are now safe to eat because the water temperature in the estuary is no longer elevated.
Establishment want to stop me, send them a message. Establishment are frit, send them a message etc.
The idea that Dulwich educated Farage is a man of the "people" is what makes him "populist". It doesn't make it true. His party has support of roughly 26% of the population. That's less than Sunak's Tories. That it's beating the rest is simply an indication of how divided the nation is. No one speaks for "the people". We don't speak as one.
So not exactly surprising he is media savvy and doesn't come across as a moron.
The other is led by a man in a dustbin suit...
(The jokes just write themselves!)
Agent Anderson:
Lee Anderson MP
@LeeAndersonMP_
So despite all the parties wanting to get rid of @Nigel_Farage not one of them have said they will stand against him yet.
Absolute cowards.
https://x.com/LeeAndersonMP_/status/2074544497598386208
Tice:
Richard Tice MP 🇬🇧
@TiceRichard 14h
The main parties are running scared
They claim they want Standards Inquiry to lead to by election
So we trigger by election
Now they all bottle it
https://x.com/TiceRichard/status/2074548538000769432
(Tice is sending out a firehose of responses to reporters.)
The banter is improving.
Kemi Badenoch said on @GMB there may be no second Clacton by-election because Count Binface might win.
https://x.com/Kevin_Maguire/status/2074756920934559835
The Financial Times published this chart earlier in the month, and Ukraine are well on the way to taking this campaign up another notch. They also hit an oil pumping station in Ufa, and 6 more ships trying to supply Crimea
It's very much an American playbook with a drama every so often where you create a strawman for you to fight and defeat. The side effect of normalising corruption is just a bonus.
The US response was to hit the launch sites.
So, a little unsure. Yes.
"You're a multi-millionaire. You made your money selling luxury helicopter charters and rare wines to the super-wealthy.
"Nigel Farage is a public schoolboy, a former commodities trader who gets £5m gifts from his friends and lives in a 5-storey house next to Buckingham Palace courtesy of a man convicted of fraud.
"Do you really think you are in a position at Reform UK to claim not to be part of the super-wealthy, self-serving establishment?"
https://x.com/KevinASchofield/status/2074757620825469092
If i were a civilian living there I’d be getting the F out, even if if means a 20-mile walk over the bridge or stealing fuel from somewhere.
This means he is officially no longer MP for Clacton and the government will not block the by-election, as the Lib Dems have demanded.
https://x.com/KevinASchofield/status/2074750795199721936
Ref 27 (-1)
Con 22 (+2)
Lab 21 (-3)
LD 11 (-1)
Grn 10 (=)
SNP 2 (=)
Oth 5 (+2)
https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/2074765871289901195
The biggest tosser off them all being tossed out.
See the Grachi, Marius, Clodius, Caesar…
That sort of insane level of security is what presidents do when travelling to China or North Korea, not to friendly countries. Every water cup and dinner plate goes on out the plane and comes back on the plane.
Duh
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckg4e3lwzqzo
£37bn??!! For a short range missile.
Just revive Alpha https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alfa_(rocket)
Or buy the technology for the Korean Hyunmoo-5
Solid rockets aren’t complex tech, in many ways. This is about giving a pile of money to traditional contractors.
Build a couple of factories.
And spend the money on making 10,000 of them.
If they get a serious ‘bank run’ they could be gone very quickly, but they are one of the lynchpins of the whole cryptocurrency ecosystem and could collapse a lot more than just themselves.
https://x.com/bohuslavskakate/status/2074651901799411954
The attempt "stable" coin attempt to automically dynamically align ended in an absolute shit show 4 years ago.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-61425209
At the moment, we're talking about how he's triggered a vanity by election over a £5 million gift in crypto that he failed to declare because it was purely personal and how he's up against a bloke dressed as a dustbin.
Not altogether sure that's what he had in mind (leaving aside the assumption) but definitely at the moment it's not looking like a cunning stunt.
Fire Point are aiming to get ballistic missiles into operation by the end of the year.
But worry not, it'll be back to the tennis, the football, Trump's Iranian shambles and the advent of Supermanc soon enough.
The old Soviet apartment blocks in large cities are almost all run on a central heating system, with a large oil-fired water heater in the basement that powers radiators around the building.
It’s not impossible that more remote parts of Russia encounter a serious humanitarian crisis this winter. The worry is that Putin, as with many previous leaders in that part of the world, doesn’t care too much about his own population and lets it happen.
If Russia leaves Ukraine, and the Politbureau all go to The Hague, then the international community will send as much aid as required.
If that is the case, under my reading of the current Betfair rules the market might apply to the *real* by election. I say might because they are totally vague.
Anyone laying tories (in particular) should bear this in mind.
There are going to be so many Ukranian defence companies ripe for investment and licensing deals after this war, the old school Western ones are going to have to step up to compete.
As has been said a hundred times, wartime procurement looks very different to peacetime procurement, and most of the legacy weapons manufacturers are still in peacetime mode.
https://x.com/LozzaFox/status/2074602485075894576
It’s like the available balance in your Betfair account.