Binface would stand more of a chance if he was actually funny, instead it's all a bit of forced humour. A rematch with Al Murray would be better.
Farage will win at a canter, but the optics won't be great for him. I think it's another mis-step, taken in haste, which is a worrying trait for a potential PM.
Then recent missteps are collectively fatal.
1) Wrong candidate for Gorton 2) Wrong candidate for Makerfield 3) Dealing with £5million Guardian leak by denial and anger 4) Getting angry about posh George instead of dealing with the issues
and in the last 24 hours: 5) Calling the byelection and walking into the offside trap of the strangely united five man defence of Lab, Con. LD, Green, Restore 6) Responding with bluster and anger since the by election announcement.
The only senior Reform person I would normally take seriously is Kruger. Since 3rd July he has posted on X exactly twice; once on defence procurement and once on government contracts with Capita. This non barking dog is interesting.
I would add. Wrong campaign for Caerphilly. Wrong campaign for Gorton. Wrong campaign for Makerfield.
The common factor. A blithe assumption Reform are the voice of the silent majority. Not the noisy minority.
On a serious point, Farage will win. We all know that.
But if the turnout is around 15%, what sort of signal does that send about how popular he is?
Especially when the investigation resumes...
If I was a voter in Clacton, I would actively go out and vote for Binface. I hope enough Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem and Green supporters in Clacton do just that. It would at least give Farage a fright.
On a serious point, Farage will win. We all know that.
But if the turnout is around 15%, what sort of signal does that send about how popular he is?
Especially when the investigation resumes...
If I was a voter in Clacton, I would actively go out and vote for Binface. I hope enough Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem and Green supporters in Clacton do just that. It would at least give Farage a fright.
I wonder if it is actually giving Harvey a fright also - I doubt he actually wants to be an MP...
...like others I'm of the opinion there is a tiny, tiny chance he'll actually win, but I wouldn't put it as zero because I wouldn't put it past Farage to walk away once the nominations have closed and he is having to do daily debates with a bin.
Morning P.B. I see that Badenoch is now also backing the Bin. It could genuinely be one of the great distinctive moments in the history of the U.K.'s political tradition, wete he to overturn Reform's supposed momentum. with bathos and the absurd.
Binface would stand more of a chance if he was actually funny, instead it's all a bit of forced humour. A rematch with Al Murray would be better.
Farage will win at a canter, but the optics won't be great for him. I think it's another mis-step, taken in haste, which is a worrying trait for a potential PM.
Then recent missteps are collectively fatal.
1) Wrong candidate for Gorton 2) Wrong candidate for Makerfield 3) Dealing with £5million Guardian leak by denial and anger 4) Getting angry about posh George instead of dealing with the issues
What could he do to deal with "the issues"? It's so much money from such a shady source that there is no good explanation.
Lawrence Fox has also confirmed he will stand in Clacton. Fox is a friend of Tommy Robinson and debated on the side as Tommy R at the Oxford Union only a few weeks ago so in the absence of Restore and if you ignore Binface it will be a straight fight between Farage and the even more hardline anti woke Islam sceptic Reclaim
Lawrence Fox has also confirmed he will stand in Clacton. Fox is a friend of Tommy Robinson and debated on the side as Tommy R at the Oxford Union only a few weeks ago so in the absence of Restore and if you ignore Binface it will be a straight fight between Farage and the even more hardline anti woke Islam sceptic Reclaim
On a serious point, Farage will win. We all know that.
But if the turnout is around 15%, what sort of signal does that send about how popular he is?
Especially when the investigation resumes...
If I was a voter in Clacton, I would actively go out and vote for Binface. I hope enough Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem and Green supporters in Clacton do just that. It would at least give Farage a fright.
I wonder if it is actually giving Harvey a fright also - I doubt he actually wants to be an MP...
...like others I'm of the opinion there is a tiny, tiny chance he'll actually win, but I wouldn't put it as zero because I wouldn't put it past Farage to walk away once the nominations have closed and he is having to do daily debates with a bin.
I'd put the chances of a Binface win at functionally zero even if mathematically possible. Most people won't be exercised by the joke to actually vote, so core Reform vote should still make up 80+% I'd say.
Populist storytelling Lone Sorensen, Associate Professor of Political Communication, University of Leeds.
Farage relies on storytelling, and spent a lot of this speech setting up his own character and position as a victim. He spoke of constant demonisation by the press – “the way I’ve been treated” – and cast himself as the most attacked person by the media in modern times. He also detailed in-person attacks and threats on his life, such as a mob attacking his car.
[...]
What’s really interesting is how Farage conflates the mainstream media and the political establishment into one entire, biased entity. He said “it’s not just the media, it applies to other political parties too”, as if the media are a political party. This is a recognised and established populist move, such as Trump’s famous “fake news” line. Populists tend to attack established media, legacy media, and especially public service media and then establish their own media ecosystem that they’re able to control more. When they present the media as the bad guy, any negative reporting becomes a bonus point to be used to their advantage. Any rule-based legal action against him, or action that parliament is taking to scrutinise him, becomes equated with a biased and politicised attack.
This came across as a very calculated move, one that he had likely done polling on and feels secure in. He will continue framing the by-election as a mini-election — the people versus the establishment — much like Burnham’s campaign in Makerfield.
On a serious point, Farage will win. We all know that.
But if the turnout is around 15%, what sort of signal does that send about how popular he is?
Especially when the investigation resumes...
If I was a voter in Clacton, I would actively go out and vote for Binface. I hope enough Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem and Green supporters in Clacton do just that. It would at least give Farage a fright.
I wonder if it is actually giving Harvey a fright also - I doubt he actually wants to be an MP...
...like others I'm of the opinion there is a tiny, tiny chance he'll actually win, but I wouldn't put it as zero because I wouldn't put it past Farage to walk away once the nominations have closed and he is having to do daily debates with a bin.
I'd put the chances of a Binface win at functionally zero even if mathematically possible. Most people won't be exercised by the joke to actually vote, so core Reform vote should still make up 80+% I'd say.
Were I in Clacton - I would be voting Binface because the election is a waste of time
Ukraine hit two more oil refineries overnight, in Saratov and Tartarstan. That's twice they've hit more than one refinery in a single night this month, which brings the total to seven refineries so far in July.
The Financial Times published this chart earlier in the month, and Ukraine are well on the way to taking this campaign up another notch. They also hit an oil pumping station in Ufa, and 6 more ships trying to supply Crimea
How much of Russia’s domestic heating is oil-based? Winter, after all, is coming.
At the moment they’re not even thinking that far ahead, they’re wondering if their farms have enough diesel for the harvest.
The old Soviet apartment blocks in large cities are almost all run on a central heating system, with a large oil-fired water heater in the basement that powers radiators around the building.
It’s not impossible that more remote parts of Russia encounter a serious humanitarian crisis this winter. The worry is that Putin, as with many previous leaders in that part of the world, doesn’t care too much about his own population and lets it happen.
If Russia leaves Ukraine, and the Politbureau all go to The Hague, then the international community will send as much aid as required.
Why would they go to The Hague when it is merely a tool of western hegemony.
You will never see an Israeli, a Brit or an American there. Irrespective of what they did. It is there to punish African warlords, a former Philippines president and East Europeans.
Any nations engaging with it are fools
They would be sent to the Hague because that would be a condition for granting Russia access to the bits of the world economy that the West controls.
The Hague is a tool of Western hegemony I can get behind.
Indeed.
Hand over Putin and Lavrov, and we’ll ease the sanctions enough for you to repair some of those oil refineries in time for winter.
Serious question:
Do either Reform or the Tories plan to withdraw from the ICC ?
Lawrence Fox has also confirmed he will stand in Clacton. Fox is a friend of Tommy Robinson and debated on the side as Tommy R at the Oxford Union only a few weeks ago so in the absence of Restore and if you ignore Binface it will be a straight fight between Farage and the even more hardline anti woke Islam sceptic Reclaim
Some ‘data journalism’ in under 3 minutes from Times Wireless.
Because times a (perceived to be) hard and the ones we've tried have been shit.
And the voters are not interested in being told the truth. We are a very low growth, low productivity country, where living standards have stagnated and millions do not work and yet we want Scando levels of public services.
Are our out of work numbers particularly different to the Scandinavian countries? (Trying saying the start of that sentence quickly...)
I'm currently proof-reading honorary graduation orations for our ceremonies next week. One of them reeks of being Chat-GPT/Co-pilot. So many em dashes - always a sign of AI - that my page is bleeding...
Ukraine hit two more oil refineries overnight, in Saratov and Tartarstan. That's twice they've hit more than one refinery in a single night this month, which brings the total to seven refineries so far in July.
The Financial Times published this chart earlier in the month, and Ukraine are well on the way to taking this campaign up another notch. They also hit an oil pumping station in Ufa, and 6 more ships trying to supply Crimea
How much of Russia’s domestic heating is oil-based? Winter, after all, is coming.
At the moment they’re not even thinking that far ahead, they’re wondering if their farms have enough diesel for the harvest.
The old Soviet apartment blocks in large cities are almost all run on a central heating system, with a large oil-fired water heater in the basement that powers radiators around the building.
It’s not impossible that more remote parts of Russia encounter a serious humanitarian crisis this winter. The worry is that Putin, as with many previous leaders in that part of the world, doesn’t care too much about his own population and lets it happen.
If Russia leaves Ukraine, and the Politbureau all go to The Hague, then the international community will send as much aid as required.
Why would they go to The Hague when it is merely a tool of western hegemony.
You will never see an Israeli, a Brit or an American there. Irrespective of what they did. It is there to punish African warlords, a former Philippines president and East Europeans.
Any nations engaging with it are fools
They would be sent to the Hague because that would be a condition for granting Russia access to the bits of the world economy that the West controls.
The Hague is a tool of Western hegemony I can get behind.
Indeed.
Hand over Putin and Lavrov, and we’ll ease the sanctions enough for you to repair some of those oil refineries in time for winter.
Serious question:
Do either Reform or the Tories plan to withdraw from the ICC ?
On a serious point, Farage will win. We all know that.
But if the turnout is around 15%, what sort of signal does that send about how popular he is?
Especially when the investigation resumes...
If I was a voter in Clacton, I would actively go out and vote for Binface. I hope enough Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem and Green supporters in Clacton do just that. It would at least give Farage a fright.
I wonder if it is actually giving Harvey a fright also - I doubt he actually wants to be an MP...
...like others I'm of the opinion there is a tiny, tiny chance he'll actually win, but I wouldn't put it as zero because I wouldn't put it past Farage to walk away once the nominations have closed and he is having to do daily debates with a bin.
I'd put the chances of a Binface win at functionally zero even if mathematically possible. Most people won't be exercised by the joke to actually vote, so core Reform vote should still make up 80+% I'd say.
Were I in Clacton - I would be voting Binface because the election is a waste of time
One should never underestimate the popular appetite for disruptive novelty and excitement. Binface will now be, for many Clacton constituents, more of a disruptive novelty and excitement than Farage.
On a serious point, Farage will win. We all know that.
But if the turnout is around 15%, what sort of signal does that send about how popular he is?
Especially when the investigation resumes...
If I was a voter in Clacton, I would actively go out and vote for Binface. I hope enough Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem and Green supporters in Clacton do just that. It would at least give Farage a fright.
I wonder if it is actually giving Harvey a fright also - I doubt he actually wants to be an MP...
...like others I'm of the opinion there is a tiny, tiny chance he'll actually win, but I wouldn't put it as zero because I wouldn't put it past Farage to walk away once the nominations have closed and he is having to do daily debates with a bin.
I'd put the chances of a Binface win at functionally zero even if mathematically possible. Most people won't be exercised by the joke to actually vote, so core Reform vote should still make up 80+% I'd say.
Were I in Clacton - I would be voting Binface because the election is a waste of time
One should never underestimate the popular appetite for disrupton, or excitement. Binface will now be for many kf the area's cinstutuents more of a disruption and novelty than Farage.
Donald Trump has ordered the US to cut off all trade with Spain, calling it a “terrible partner” in Nato.
The US president told Scott Bessent, his treasury secretary, to cease trade with the country on Wednesday, accusing it of failing to contribute enough to the defence alliance.
Didn't the Surpreme Court say he couldn't do that?
Binface would stand more of a chance if he was actually funny, instead it's all a bit of forced humour. A rematch with Al Murray would be better.
Farage will win at a canter, but the optics won't be great for him. I think it's another mis-step, taken in haste, which is a worrying trait for a potential PM.
Then recent missteps are collectively fatal.
1) Wrong candidate for Gorton 2) Wrong candidate for Makerfield 3) Dealing with £5million Guardian leak by denial and anger 4) Getting angry about posh George instead of dealing with the issues
What could he do to deal with "the issues"? It's so much money from such a shady source that there is no good explanation.
Well, that would be my view too, but trying to be fair.
Yes, they are in a fatal position from which I think it is impossible to recover, not only because of missteps but because of the actual situation they have placed themselves in with its appearance, perhaps untrue of course, of being a posh boys racket only credible to the dim.
I repeat the suggestion that it is worth keeping an eye on the doings of Kruger, who is not a natural member of that set and is lying very low.
Of course the most absurd non negotiable of politics is that centrists of Lab and Con could never work together, like the old FF and FG split in Ireland. When in reality they are all social democrats mostly pretending to disagree on fundamentals. In reality they disagree a bit on policy but not much and nothing at all that is objectively central to our lives. Both believe is a gigantically large state, welfarism, NHS, regulated private enterprise and NATO. The distinctions are quite trivial.
Some ‘data journalism’ in under 3 minutes from Times Wireless.
Because times a (perceived to be) hard and the ones we've tried have been shit.
And the voters are not interested in being told the truth. We are a very low growth, low productivity country, where living standards have stagnated and millions do not work and yet we want Scando levels of public services.
Much of Farage's appeal, I think, is down to the affable, cheeky chappy persona he presents. His 'one of the lads' schtick is particularly appealing to quite a large subsection of male voters.
However, over the last couple of months this persona has been largely taken over by a different Farage: angry, grumpy and constantly moaning. I don't think the electorate will find his new persona as attractive as his previous one. I think they prefer Jekyll to Hyde.
Donald Trump has ordered the US to cut off all trade with Spain, calling it a “terrible partner” in Nato.
The US president told Scott Bessent, his treasury secretary, to cease trade with the country on Wednesday, accusing it of failing to contribute enough to the defence alliance.
Didn't the Surpreme Court say he couldn't do that?
I expect there was wiggle room, their ruling was narrow around tariffs.
On a serious point, Farage will win. We all know that.
But if the turnout is around 15%, what sort of signal does that send about how popular he is?
Especially when the investigation resumes...
If I was a voter in Clacton, I would actively go out and vote for Binface. I hope enough Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem and Green supporters in Clacton do just that. It would at least give Farage a fright.
I wonder if it is actually giving Harvey a fright also - I doubt he actually wants to be an MP...
...like others I'm of the opinion there is a tiny, tiny chance he'll actually win, but I wouldn't put it as zero because I wouldn't put it past Farage to walk away once the nominations have closed and he is having to do daily debates with a bin.
I'd put the chances of a Binface win at functionally zero even if mathematically possible. Most people won't be exercised by the joke to actually vote, so core Reform vote should still make up 80+% I'd say.
Were I in Clacton - I would be voting Binface because the election is a waste of time
One should never underestimate the popular appetite for disruptive novelty and excitement. Binface will now be, for many Clacton constituents, more of a disruptive novelty and excitement than Farage.
Sure, but given his voteshare when Reform had half the national share they now do, Farage is likely genuinely popular there.
It has one easy answer: Reform are neither going to govern, lead a government or be junior partner in one. Only months ago the polling showed Reform winning a trillion seats. That, for centrist democrats is the important bit.
Much of Farage's appeal, I think, is down to the affable, cheeky chappy persona he presents. His 'one of the lads' schtick is particularly appealing to quite a large subsection of male voters.
However, over the last couple of months this persona has been largely taken over by a different Farage: angry, grumpy and constantly moaning. I don't think the electorate will find his new persona as attractive as his previous one. I think they prefer Jekyll to Hyde.
Something similar happened with Jeremy Corbyn between 2017 and 2019. He was suddenly a lot older and less engaging. His new glasses did not help and there was speculation about his health iirc.
Reform needs to crush this BinFace meme pronto. Of course, Nigel starts from a strong position, but if it all turns into a summer lark and the voters of Clacton feel like f*cking up the status quo (of which the ubiquitous Nigel is now undeniably a part) then maybe, just maybe...
Reform needs to crush this BinFace meme pronto. Of course, Nigel starts from a strong position, but if it all turns into a summer lark and the voters of Clacton feel like f*cking up the status quo (of which the ubiquitous Nigel is now undeniably a part) then maybe, just maybe...
One of many reasons why there is not going to be a by-election now.
Just a question of what time today Farage undoes all this.
Reform needs to crush this BinFace meme pronto. Of course, Nigel starts from a strong position, but if it all turns into a summer lark and the voters of Clacton feel like f*cking up the status quo (of which the ubiquitous Nigel is now undeniably a part) then maybe, just maybe...
One of many reasons why there is not going to be a by-election now.
Just a question of what time today Farage undoes all this.
Reform needs to crush this BinFace meme pronto. Of course, Nigel starts from a strong position, but if it all turns into a summer lark and the voters of Clacton feel like f*cking up the status quo (of which the ubiquitous Nigel is now undeniably a part) then maybe, just maybe...
A tiny Binface majority on a (say) 10% poll might be the best result.
Binface would stand more of a chance if he was actually funny, instead it's all a bit of forced humour. A rematch with Al Murray would be better.
Farage will win at a canter, but the optics won't be great for him. I think it's another mis-step, taken in haste, which is a worrying trait for a potential PM.
Then recent missteps are collectively fatal.
1) Wrong candidate for Gorton 2) Wrong candidate for Makerfield 3) Dealing with £5million Guardian leak by denial and anger 4) Getting angry about posh George instead of dealing with the issues
What could he do to deal with "the issues"? It's so much money from such a shady source that there is no good explanation.
I think this Binface fiasco is pretty much par for the course for Farage. Only nutters like Leon have ever rated Farage for anything except grifting. Not withstanding the polls, the chances of Reform going from 8 MPs to triple figures in a single election are historically zero.
This latest nonsense really looks like the implosion of a largely Astroturf party that rests on dodgy donations.
Not to say that British politics is in great shape- it clearly isn't- but Farage has played so fast and so loose that his lack of discipline will bring the REFUK project to naught well before the next general election.
Binface opens up the Fascist frog to the kind of ridicule that Trump and his acolytes find most difficult to deal with. The tantrum at the Sky camera and this absurd attempt to bat away fully legitimate questions about how he has been funded have made this the worst 24 hours for NF since he first infected British politics. A man whose moral compass was and remains pro Putin deserves to be defeated- it would be a remarkably British thing if that defeat came at the hands of a joke candidate, but ridicule is a more powerful weapon than outrage.
The Press are on it with an actual journalist at the scene. Initial implications that the fire is in some kind of service building - "some staff but not patients have been evacuated"
Reform needs to crush this BinFace meme pronto. Of course, Nigel starts from a strong position, but if it all turns into a summer lark and the voters of Clacton feel like f*cking up the status quo (of which the ubiquitous Nigel is now undeniably a part) then maybe, just maybe...
One of many reasons why there is not going to be a by-election now.
Just a question of what time today Farage undoes all this.
Can he undo it? I thought he'd resigned as an MP already.
Much of Farage's appeal, I think, is down to the affable, cheeky chappy persona he presents. His 'one of the lads' schtick is particularly appealing to quite a large subsection of male voters.
However, over the last couple of months this persona has been largely taken over by a different Farage: angry, grumpy and constantly moaning. I don't think the electorate will find his new persona as attractive as his previous one. I think they prefer Jekyll to Hyde.
Yes. There are three political personae in this respect: 1) You can dish it out and you can take it (Thatcher, Blair, Boris, Kinnock) 2) You can not dish it out but you can take it (Corbyn, Whitelaw, Ken Clarke) 3) You can dish it out but you can't take it (Farage, Gordon Brown, Lee Anderson)
Binface would stand more of a chance if he was actually funny, instead it's all a bit of forced humour. A rematch with Al Murray would be better.
Farage will win at a canter, but the optics won't be great for him. I think it's another mis-step, taken in haste, which is a worrying trait for a potential PM.
Then recent missteps are collectively fatal.
1) Wrong candidate for Gorton 2) Wrong candidate for Makerfield 3) Dealing with £5million Guardian leak by denial and anger 4) Getting angry about posh George instead of dealing with the issues
What could he do to deal with "the issues"? It's so much money from such a shady source that there is no good explanation.
Binface would stand more of a chance if he was actually funny, instead it's all a bit of forced humour. A rematch with Al Murray would be better.
Farage will win at a canter, but the optics won't be great for him. I think it's another mis-step, taken in haste, which is a worrying trait for a potential PM.
Then recent missteps are collectively fatal.
1) Wrong candidate for Gorton 2) Wrong candidate for Makerfield 3) Dealing with £5million Guardian leak by denial and anger 4) Getting angry about posh George instead of dealing with the issues
What could he do to deal with "the issues"? It's so much money from such a shady source that there is no good explanation.
I think this Binface fiasco is pretty much par for the course for Farage. Only nutters like Leon have ever rated Farage for anything except grifting. Not withstanding the polls, the chances of Reform going from 8 MPs to triple figures in a single election are historically zero.
This latest nonsense really looks like the implosion of a largely Astroturf party that rests on dodgy donations.
Not to say that British politics is in great shape- it clearly isn't- but Farage has played so fast and so loose that his lack of discipline will bring the REFUK project to naught well before the next general election.
Binface opens up the Fascist frog to the kind of ridicule that Trump and his acolytes find most difficult to deal with. The tantrum at the Sky camera and this absurd attempt to bat away fully legitimate questions about how he has been funded have made this the worst 24 hours for NF since he first infected British politics. A man whose moral compass was and remains pro Putin deserves to be defeated- it would be a remarkably British thing if that defeat came at the hands of a joke candidate, but ridicule is a more powerful weapon than outrage.
He's a shit. But to deny that he has had a huge effect on British politics is not born out by the facts. He was the driving force behind getting to a Brexit referendum and then played a role in delivering the win. Arguably that was not the outcome that best suited him (a narrow defeat and he could still have been there on the sidelines carping about the EU etc).
I tend to agree about the number of seats that Reform can realistically win. There are several reasons for this, not least the Stop Reform vote. the Tories, in the past, have been victims of such negative voting (I mean voting against, rather than voting for). I think it will scupper Reform too. The candidates are also going to be a problem. Having seen what we've had so far rather suggests a lack of genuine quality amongst them, or the ability to reason, speak in public etc. We do like to deride our politicians, but this crowd are far worse.
Much of Farage's appeal, I think, is down to the affable, cheeky chappy persona he presents. His 'one of the lads' schtick is particularly appealing to quite a large subsection of male voters.
However, over the last couple of months this persona has been largely taken over by a different Farage: angry, grumpy and constantly moaning. I don't think the electorate will find his new persona as attractive as his previous one. I think they prefer Jekyll to Hyde.
Yes. There are three political personae in this respect: 1) You can dish it out and you can take it (Thatcher, Blair, Boris, Kinnock) 2) You can not dish it out but you can take it (Corbyn, Whitelaw, Ken Clarke) 3) You can dish it out but you can't take it (Farage, Gordon Brown, Lee Anderson)
In the long run we don't like (3) all that much.
The most extreme example of 3) is Trump, which proves your point.
Reform needs to crush this BinFace meme pronto. Of course, Nigel starts from a strong position, but if it all turns into a summer lark and the voters of Clacton feel like f*cking up the status quo (of which the ubiquitous Nigel is now undeniably a part) then maybe, just maybe...
One of many reasons why there is not going to be a by-election now.
Just a question of what time today Farage undoes all this.
Can he undo it? I thought he'd resigned as an MP already.
This is where the doubt is apparently. The CoE has to formally appoint him to a position that means he can't be an MP.
Seems there is a question about whether this has been done yet.
Much of Farage's appeal, I think, is down to the affable, cheeky chappy persona he presents. His 'one of the lads' schtick is particularly appealing to quite a large subsection of male voters.
However, over the last couple of months this persona has been largely taken over by a different Farage: angry, grumpy and constantly moaning. I don't think the electorate will find his new persona as attractive as his previous one. I think they prefer Jekyll to Hyde.
Yes. There are three political personae in this respect: 1) You can dish it out and you can take it (Thatcher, Blair, Boris, Kinnock) 2) You can not dish it out but you can take it (Corbyn, Whitelaw, Ken Clarke) 3) You can dish it out but you can't take it (Farage, Gordon Brown, Lee Anderson)
In the long run we don't like (3) all that much.
3 is simple - they're snowflakes. You see it on all sides but i think snowflakes on the right are angrier at it being pointed out because in their heads it is a lefty position.
Binface would stand more of a chance if he was actually funny, instead it's all a bit of forced humour. A rematch with Al Murray would be better.
Farage will win at a canter, but the optics won't be great for him. I think it's another mis-step, taken in haste, which is a worrying trait for a potential PM.
Then recent missteps are collectively fatal.
1) Wrong candidate for Gorton 2) Wrong candidate for Makerfield 3) Dealing with £5million Guardian leak by denial and anger 4) Getting angry about posh George instead of dealing with the issues
What could he do to deal with "the issues"? It's so much money from such a shady source that there is no good explanation.
I think this Binface fiasco is pretty much par for the course for Farage. Only nutters like Leon have ever rated Farage for anything except grifting. Not withstanding the polls, the chances of Reform going from 8 MPs to triple figures in a single election are historically zero.
This latest nonsense really looks like the implosion of a largely Astroturf party that rests on dodgy donations.
Not to say that British politics is in great shape- it clearly isn't- but Farage has played so fast and so loose that his lack of discipline will bring the REFUK project to naught well before the next general election.
Binface opens up the Fascist frog to the kind of ridicule that Trump and his acolytes find most difficult to deal with. The tantrum at the Sky camera and this absurd attempt to bat away fully legitimate questions about how he has been funded have made this the worst 24 hours for NF since he first infected British politics. A man whose moral compass was and remains pro Putin deserves to be defeated- it would be a remarkably British thing if that defeat came at the hands of a joke candidate, but ridicule is a more powerful weapon than outrage.
He's a shit. But to deny that he has had a huge effect on British politics is not born out by the facts. He was the driving force behind getting to a Brexit referendum and then played a role in delivering the win. Arguably that was not the outcome that best suited him (a narrow defeat and he could still have been there on the sidelines carping about the EU etc).
I tend to agree about the number of seats that Reform can realistically win. There are several reasons for this, not least the Stop Reform vote. the Tories, in the past, have been victims of such negative voting (I mean voting against, rather than voting for). I think it will scupper Reform too. The candidates are also going to be a problem. Having seen what we've had so far rather suggests a lack of genuine quality amongst them, or the ability to reason, speak in public etc. We do like to deride our politicians, but this crowd are far worse.
A narrow defeat and he could still be drawing his MEP’s salary.
What’s genuinely funny is to see how Reform and their supporters cannot adjust. They have one pitch - all out, hysterical attack. They’re literally arguing with a bin. And they can’t recalibrate.
Binface would stand more of a chance if he was actually funny, instead it's all a bit of forced humour. A rematch with Al Murray would be better.
Farage will win at a canter, but the optics won't be great for him. I think it's another mis-step, taken in haste, which is a worrying trait for a potential PM.
Then recent missteps are collectively fatal.
1) Wrong candidate for Gorton 2) Wrong candidate for Makerfield 3) Dealing with £5million Guardian leak by denial and anger 4) Getting angry about posh George instead of dealing with the issues
What could he do to deal with "the issues"? It's so much money from such a shady source that there is no good explanation.
I think this Binface fiasco is pretty much par for the course for Farage. Only nutters like Leon have ever rated Farage for anything except grifting. Not withstanding the polls, the chances of Reform going from 8 MPs to triple figures in a single election are historically zero.
This latest nonsense really looks like the implosion of a largely Astroturf party that rests on dodgy donations.
Not to say that British politics is in great shape- it clearly isn't- but Farage has played so fast and so loose that his lack of discipline will bring the REFUK project to naught well before the next general election.
Binface opens up the Fascist frog to the kind of ridicule that Trump and his acolytes find most difficult to deal with. The tantrum at the Sky camera and this absurd attempt to bat away fully legitimate questions about how he has been funded have made this the worst 24 hours for NF since he first infected British politics. A man whose moral compass was and remains pro Putin deserves to be defeated- it would be a remarkably British thing if that defeat came at the hands of a joke candidate, but ridicule is a more powerful weapon than outrage.
He's a shit. But to deny that he has had a huge effect on British politics is not born out by the facts. He was the driving force behind getting to a Brexit referendum and then played a role in delivering the win. Arguably that was not the outcome that best suited him (a narrow defeat and he could still have been there on the sidelines carping about the EU etc).
I tend to agree about the number of seats that Reform can realistically win. There are several reasons for this, not least the Stop Reform vote. the Tories, in the past, have been victims of such negative voting (I mean voting against, rather than voting for). I think it will scupper Reform too. The candidates are also going to be a problem. Having seen what we've had so far rather suggests a lack of genuine quality amongst them, or the ability to reason, speak in public etc. We do like to deride our politicians, but this crowd are far worse.
OK, fair point that he has been consequential, but what I am getting at is that even his victories have been pretty accidental. He is not a strategist at all. It was, and remains all about him, nothing to do with the greater good, because he doesn't recognize the greater good. Now he is being found out as a political weakling, as well as- as you rightly point out- a shit.
What’s genuinely funny is to see how Reform and their supporters cannot adjust. They have one pitch - all out, hysterical attack. They’re literally arguing with a bin. And they can’t recalibrate.
I like how it's unfair other parties won't take part but also exactly what they had wanted, apparently.
Reform needs to crush this BinFace meme pronto. Of course, Nigel starts from a strong position, but if it all turns into a summer lark and the voters of Clacton feel like f*cking up the status quo (of which the ubiquitous Nigel is now undeniably a part) then maybe, just maybe...
One of many reasons why there is not going to be a by-election now.
Just a question of what time today Farage undoes all this.
Can he undo it? I thought he'd resigned as an MP already.
Since the formal process of appointment is a legal fiction withdrawing as it has not technically happened would feel wrong to me.
For councillors they cannot withdraw a resignation if made to the proper person, though granted there's no intermediate stage.
Donald Trump has ordered the US to cut off all trade with Spain, calling it a “terrible partner” in Nato.
The US president told Scott Bessent, his treasury secretary, to cease trade with the country on Wednesday, accusing it of failing to contribute enough to the defence alliance.
Didn't the Surpreme Court say he couldn't do that?
I think the EU did. Trade with Spain will simply be routed through other EU countries.
Donald Trump has ordered the US to cut off all trade with Spain, calling it a “terrible partner” in Nato.
The US president told Scott Bessent, his treasury secretary, to cease trade with the country on Wednesday, accusing it of failing to contribute enough to the defence alliance.
Didn't the Surpreme Court say he couldn't do that?
I think the EU did. Trade with Spain will simply be routed through other EU countries.
American businesses must love all this disruption on presidential win.
Of course the really big businesses are Trump guys anyway.
Cottrell aka Posh George looks to have a, let's say nuanced, background. The Harborne payments look more straightforward.
If Reform were a proper party, they'd compile a record of donations to the Conservatives in particular but also Labour (including Labour Together). Whataboutery is the best form of defence.
Much of Farage's appeal, I think, is down to the affable, cheeky chappy persona he presents. His 'one of the lads' schtick is particularly appealing to quite a large subsection of male voters.
However, over the last couple of months this persona has been largely taken over by a different Farage: angry, grumpy and constantly moaning. I don't think the electorate will find his new persona as attractive as his previous one. I think they prefer Jekyll to Hyde.
Yes, it is quite obvious that Farage would be a disaster as PM because of his character flaws quite apart from his dodgy politics.
Reform needs to crush this BinFace meme pronto. Of course, Nigel starts from a strong position, but if it all turns into a summer lark and the voters of Clacton feel like f*cking up the status quo (of which the ubiquitous Nigel is now undeniably a part) then maybe, just maybe...
One of many reasons why there is not going to be a by-election now.
Just a question of what time today Farage undoes all this.
Can he undo it? I thought he'd resigned as an MP already.
Since the formal process of appointment is a legal fiction withdrawing as it has not technically happened would feel wrong to me.
For councillors they cannot withdraw a resignation if made to the proper person, though granted there's no intermediate stage.
Besides, does Big Brave Nigel really want to run away from a bloke with a bin on his head?
It's not obvious that Farage has any good options from here (so yeah, all he can do it pick the least-bad one). And that's largely self-inflicted.
On a serious point, Farage will win. We all know that.
But if the turnout is around 15%, what sort of signal does that send about how popular he is?
Especially when the investigation resumes...
If I was a voter in Clacton, I would actively go out and vote for Binface. I hope enough Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem and Green supporters in Clacton do just that. It would at least give Farage a fright.
I wonder if it is actually giving Harvey a fright also - I doubt he actually wants to be an MP...
...like others I'm of the opinion there is a tiny, tiny chance he'll actually win, but I wouldn't put it as zero because I wouldn't put it past Farage to walk away once the nominations have closed and he is having to do daily debates with a bin.
I'd put the chances of a Binface win at functionally zero even if mathematically possible. Most people won't be exercised by the joke to actually vote, so core Reform vote should still make up 80+% I'd say.
Were I in Clacton - I would be voting Binface because the election is a waste of time
One should never underestimate the popular appetite for disruptive novelty and excitement. Binface will now be, for many Clacton constituents, more of a disruptive novelty and excitement than Farage.
And in the absence of other candidates, the Count will get more publicity than he has ever had before. I've never been remotely tempted to vote for a joke candidate before, but if I lived in the constituency would be a committed Bin-voter. I might even canvass for him.
Virgin Media has been fined £28m for repeatedly preventing customers from cancelling contracts, Ofcom said.
I believe a Count Binface policy is to make such contracts illegal. Sticking two fingers up at Virgin Media would be a service to mankind. Bin-mania, your time has come.
So, the thinking earlier was that it would be funny is the Chacellor slow-walked Farage’s appointment to (check notes) the job of the Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead, but now the PB consensus seems to be to appoint him ASAP today before Honourable Member for Clacton can change his mind!
So, the thinking earlier was that it would be funny is the Chacellor slow-walked Farage’s appointment to (check notes) the job of the Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead, but now the PB consensus seems to be to appoint him ASAP today before Honourable Member for Clacton can change his mind!
I don't think he would pull out even if he could. The lines about the establishment coordinating are stock but will play ok on GB news and other friendly people.
On a serious point, Farage will win. We all know that.
But if the turnout is around 15%, what sort of signal does that send about how popular he is?
Especially when the investigation resumes...
If I was a voter in Clacton, I would actively go out and vote for Binface. I hope enough Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem and Green supporters in Clacton do just that. It would at least give Farage a fright.
I wonder if it is actually giving Harvey a fright also - I doubt he actually wants to be an MP...
...like others I'm of the opinion there is a tiny, tiny chance he'll actually win, but I wouldn't put it as zero because I wouldn't put it past Farage to walk away once the nominations have closed and he is having to do daily debates with a bin.
I'd put the chances of a Binface win at functionally zero even if mathematically possible. Most people won't be exercised by the joke to actually vote, so core Reform vote should still make up 80+% I'd say.
Were I in Clacton - I would be voting Binface because the election is a waste of time
One should never underestimate the popular appetite for disruptive novelty and excitement. Binface will now be, for many Clacton constituents, more of a disruptive novelty and excitement than Farage.
And in the absence of other candidates, the Count will get more publicity than he has ever had before. I've never been remotely tempted to vote for a joke candidate before, but if I lived in the constituency would be a committed Bin-voter. I might even canvass for him.
the fun now will be he will get a level of scrutiny he has never had before
On a serious point, Farage will win. We all know that.
But if the turnout is around 15%, what sort of signal does that send about how popular he is?
Especially when the investigation resumes...
If I was a voter in Clacton, I would actively go out and vote for Binface. I hope enough Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem and Green supporters in Clacton do just that. It would at least give Farage a fright.
I wonder if it is actually giving Harvey a fright also - I doubt he actually wants to be an MP...
...like others I'm of the opinion there is a tiny, tiny chance he'll actually win, but I wouldn't put it as zero because I wouldn't put it past Farage to walk away once the nominations have closed and he is having to do daily debates with a bin.
I'd put the chances of a Binface win at functionally zero even if mathematically possible. Most people won't be exercised by the joke to actually vote, so core Reform vote should still make up 80+% I'd say.
Were I in Clacton - I would be voting Binface because the election is a waste of time
One should never underestimate the popular appetite for disruptive novelty and excitement. Binface will now be, for many Clacton constituents, more of a disruptive novelty and excitement than Farage.
And in the absence of other candidates, the Count will get more publicity than he has ever had before. I've never been remotely tempted to vote for a joke candidate before, but if I lived in the constituency would be a committed Bin-voter. I might even canvass for him.
We should remember that H'Angus the Monkey won the mayoralty in Hartlepool. Then resolved to take it seriously and was reelected.
So, the thinking earlier was that it would be funny is the Chacellor slow-walked Farage’s appointment to (check notes) the job of the Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead, but now the PB consensus seems to be to appoint him ASAP today before Honourable Member for Clacton can change his mind!
PB and thinking, where Farage is concerned, seem to be mutually exclusive
Much of Farage's appeal, I think, is down to the affable, cheeky chappy persona he presents. His 'one of the lads' schtick is particularly appealing to quite a large subsection of male voters.
However, over the last couple of months this persona has been largely taken over by a different Farage: angry, grumpy and constantly moaning. I don't think the electorate will find his new persona as attractive as his previous one. I think they prefer Jekyll to Hyde.
Yes, it is quite obvious that Farage would be a disaster as PM because of his character flaws quite apart from his dodgy politics.
Binface would stand more of a chance if he was actually funny, instead it's all a bit of forced humour. A rematch with Al Murray would be better.
Farage will win at a canter, but the optics won't be great for him. I think it's another mis-step, taken in haste, which is a worrying trait for a potential PM.
The idea of Count Binface defeating Nigel Farage is centrist Dad catnip.
As for the optics, the centre and centre-left parties have gambled somewhat, just as Farage has gambled (though his gamble is bigger). If Lozza Fox and Farage are the only candidates of note, and if they decide to take the byelection seriously and behave well (both big ifs), they could move the national debate to the right - 'Yes we both agree that Britain is in the grip of a blob-fuelled decline, but my policies for dealing with it are better.' And given that of the two, Farage is the more moderate (and we love the mushy middle here in the UK) Farage could end up looking sensible and electable.
So, the thinking earlier was that it would be funny is the Chacellor slow-walked Farage’s appointment to (check notes) the job of the Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead, but now the PB consensus seems to be to appoint him ASAP today before Honourable Member for Clacton can change his mind!
On a serious point, Farage will win. We all know that.
But if the turnout is around 15%, what sort of signal does that send about how popular he is?
Especially when the investigation resumes...
If I was a voter in Clacton, I would actively go out and vote for Binface. I hope enough Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem and Green supporters in Clacton do just that. It would at least give Farage a fright.
I wonder if it is actually giving Harvey a fright also - I doubt he actually wants to be an MP...
...like others I'm of the opinion there is a tiny, tiny chance he'll actually win, but I wouldn't put it as zero because I wouldn't put it past Farage to walk away once the nominations have closed and he is having to do daily debates with a bin.
I'd put the chances of a Binface win at functionally zero even if mathematically possible. Most people won't be exercised by the joke to actually vote, so core Reform vote should still make up 80+% I'd say.
Were I in Clacton - I would be voting Binface because the election is a waste of time
One should never underestimate the popular appetite for disruptive novelty and excitement. Binface will now be, for many Clacton constituents, more of a disruptive novelty and excitement than Farage.
And in the absence of other candidates, the Count will get more publicity than he has ever had before. I've never been remotely tempted to vote for a joke candidate before, but if I lived in the constituency would be a committed Bin-voter. I might even canvass for him.
I’m in the UK for a couple of weeks at the end of August, I might ask the missus if she’d like a day or two at the seaside…
So, the thinking earlier was that it would be funny is the Chacellor slow-walked Farage’s appointment to (check notes) the job of the Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead, but now the PB consensus seems to be to appoint him ASAP today before Honourable Member for Clacton can change his mind!
PB and thinking, where Farage is concerned, seem to be mutually exclusive
Its just a long outpouring of english middle class angst
So, the thinking earlier was that it would be funny is the Chacellor slow-walked Farage’s appointment to (check notes) the job of the Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead, but now the PB consensus seems to be to appoint him ASAP today before Honourable Member for Clacton can change his mind!
The whole situation is moderately amusing, but honestly I think it would be wrong to stop him resigning, given that manoeuvre hasn't been tried for nearly two centuries.
Binface would stand more of a chance if he was actually funny, instead it's all a bit of forced humour. A rematch with Al Murray would be better.
Farage will win at a canter, but the optics won't be great for him. I think it's another mis-step, taken in haste, which is a worrying trait for a potential PM.
The idea of Count Binface defeating Nigel Farage is centrist Dad catnip.
As for the optics, the centre and centre-left parties have gambled somewhat, just as Farage has gambled (though his gamble is bigger). If Lozza Fox and Farage are the only candidates of note, and if they decide to take the byelection seriously and behave well (both big ifs), they could move the national debate to the right - 'Yes we both agree that Britain is in the grip of a blob-fuelled decline, but my policies for dealing with it are better.' And given that of the two, Farage is the more moderate (and we love the mushy middle here in the UK) Farage could end up looking sensible and electable.
Thanks. I was trying to figure out the angle by which Farage gains from this, and I'm so enjoying the spectacle that I couldn't. As is often the case, you offer a well-thought through opposite position to mine. I can't quite see it panning out as you suggest (I think the farcical nature will play bigger) but am well aware I may be wrong and you may be right.
Binface would stand more of a chance if he was actually funny, instead it's all a bit of forced humour. A rematch with Al Murray would be better.
Farage will win at a canter, but the optics won't be great for him. I think it's another mis-step, taken in haste, which is a worrying trait for a potential PM.
The idea of Count Binface defeating Nigel Farage is centrist Dad catnip.
As for the optics, the centre and centre-left parties have gambled somewhat, just as Farage has gambled (though his gamble is bigger). If Lozza Fox and Farage are the only candidates of note, and if they decide to take the byelection seriously and behave well (both big ifs), they could move the national debate to the right - 'Yes we both agree that Britain is in the grip of a blob-fuelled decline, but my policies for dealing with it are better.' And given that of the two, Farage is the more moderate (and we love the mushy middle here in the UK) Farage could end up looking sensible and electable.
What's in it for Fox to do that? Anyone standing against Farage is going to hit Farage on the £5 million.
I agree with you about the danger of Reform losing to more extreme politicians, and I flagged the possibility of Fox winning upthread, but I don't think that will come through a measured discussion of hard right policies that shifts the Overton window.
So, the thinking earlier was that it would be funny is the Chacellor slow-walked Farage’s appointment to (check notes) the job of the Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead, but now the PB consensus seems to be to appoint him ASAP today before Honourable Member for Clacton can change his mind!
The whole situation is moderately amusing, but honestly I think it would be wrong to stop him resigning, given that manoeuvre hasn't been tried for nearly two centuries.
Yet another piece of our shambles of a constitution that is not fit for purpose. Putting aside the circumstances of this case, the idea that an MP cannot resign whenever they want is just ridiculous. We have accepted this for a very long time now and I would be disappointed if it were changed just because Farage is a prat.
So, the thinking earlier was that it would be funny is the Chacellor slow-walked Farage’s appointment to (check notes) the job of the Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead, but now the PB consensus seems to be to appoint him ASAP today before Honourable Member for Clacton can change his mind!
The whole situation is moderately amusing, but honestly I think it would be wrong to stop him resigning, given that manoeuvre hasn't been tried for nearly two centuries.
Yet another piece of our shambles of a constitution that is not fit for purpose. Putting aside the circumstances of this case, the idea that an MP cannot resign whenever they want is just ridiculous. We have accepted this for a very long time now and I would be disappointed if it were changed just because Farage is a prat.
The last Sinn Fein MP to resign agreed and just sent in a letter saying (in more words) "I resign". Parliamentary authorities interpreted this as a request to be appointed to an office of the Crown. Sinn Fein said that was nonsense and they refused to accept that position, but that's what happened.
How do Reform go after BinFace? That's the fundamental political question of our time. A full-on personal attack may look mean, but if they ignore him completely will that not provide space for his ideas and pronouncements to blossom and thrive? Perhaps Nigel could state that he actually sees BinFace as something of a political soulmate, and he is fighting him more in sorry than in anger and with a heavy heart.
Laying a Farage exit as Reform leader for 2029 or later is starting to look like an interesting bet, with a 30% return that you could get as soon as this year, the way things are going.
On a serious point, Farage will win. We all know that.
But if the turnout is around 15%, what sort of signal does that send about how popular he is?
Especially when the investigation resumes...
If I was a voter in Clacton, I would actively go out and vote for Binface. I hope enough Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem and Green supporters in Clacton do just that. It would at least give Farage a fright.
I wonder if it is actually giving Harvey a fright also - I doubt he actually wants to be an MP...
...like others I'm of the opinion there is a tiny, tiny chance he'll actually win, but I wouldn't put it as zero because I wouldn't put it past Farage to walk away once the nominations have closed and he is having to do daily debates with a bin.
I'd put the chances of a Binface win at functionally zero even if mathematically possible. Most people won't be exercised by the joke to actually vote, so core Reform vote should still make up 80+% I'd say.
Were I in Clacton - I would be voting Binface because the election is a waste of time
One should never underestimate the popular appetite for disruptive novelty and excitement. Binface will now be, for many Clacton constituents, more of a disruptive novelty and excitement than Farage.
And in the absence of other candidates, the Count will get more publicity than he has ever had before. I've never been remotely tempted to vote for a joke candidate before, but if I lived in the constituency would be a committed Bin-voter. I might even canvass for him.
the fun now will be he will get a level of scrutiny he has never had before
I cant see how that will be enjoyable
You think people who stand for election dislike attention?
So, the thinking earlier was that it would be funny is the Chacellor slow-walked Farage’s appointment to (check notes) the job of the Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead, but now the PB consensus seems to be to appoint him ASAP today before Honourable Member for Clacton can change his mind!
The whole situation is moderately amusing, but honestly I think it would be wrong to stop him resigning, given that manoeuvre hasn't been tried for nearly two centuries.
Yet another piece of our shambles of a constitution that is not fit for purpose. Putting aside the circumstances of this case, the idea that an MP cannot resign whenever they want is just ridiculous. We have accepted this for a very long time now and I would be disappointed if it were changed just because Farage is a prat.
The last Sinn Fein MP to resign agreed and just sent in a letter saying (in more words) "I resign". Parliamentary authorities interpreted this as a request to be appointed to an office of the Crown. Sinn Fein said that was nonsense and they refused to accept that position, but that's what happened.
Words I thought I would never write: Sinn Fein were right.
So, the thinking earlier was that it would be funny is the Chacellor slow-walked Farage’s appointment to (check notes) the job of the Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead, but now the PB consensus seems to be to appoint him ASAP today before Honourable Member for Clacton can change his mind!
On a purely procedural note, one "resigns" as a member of the Commons by appointment to Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead because you cannot be working directly for the crown, and be a Member of Parliament.
The office of Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead does not normally fall vacant - usually it is filled by the next person but one to resign (the intermediate person being appointed to the Chiltern Hundreds).
If Farage takes the office of Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead, then wins the resulting by-election whilst holding this office, what happens? Surely he can't be a MP whilst also Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead?
Comments
Wrong campaign for Caerphilly.
Wrong campaign for Gorton.
Wrong campaign for Makerfield.
The common factor. A blithe assumption Reform are the voice of the silent majority. Not the noisy minority.
...like others I'm of the opinion there is a tiny, tiny chance he'll actually win, but I wouldn't put it as zero because I wouldn't put it past Farage to walk away once the nominations have closed and he is having to do daily debates with a bin.
"Count Binface vs the novelty candidate" is approved by everyone, as far as I can see.
I see that Badenoch is now also backing the Bin. It could genuinely be one of the great distinctive moments in the history of the U.K.'s political tradition, wete he to overturn Reform's supposed momentum. with bathos and the absurd.
I'd vote for that.
Populist storytelling
Lone Sorensen, Associate Professor of Political Communication, University of Leeds.
Farage relies on storytelling, and spent a lot of this speech setting up his own character and position as a victim. He spoke of constant demonisation by the press – “the way I’ve been treated” – and cast himself as the most attacked person by the media in modern times. He also detailed in-person attacks and threats on his life, such as a mob attacking his car.
[...]
What’s really interesting is how Farage conflates the mainstream media and the political establishment into one entire, biased entity. He said “it’s not just the media, it applies to other political parties too”, as if the media are a political party. This is a recognised and established populist move, such as Trump’s famous “fake news” line. Populists tend to attack established media, legacy media, and especially public service media and then establish their own media ecosystem that they’re able to control more. When they present the media as the bad guy, any negative reporting becomes a bonus point to be used to their advantage. Any rule-based legal action against him, or action that parliament is taking to scrutinise him, becomes equated with a biased and politicised attack.
This came across as a very calculated move, one that he had likely done polling on and feels secure in. He will continue framing the by-election as a mini-election — the people versus the establishment — much like Burnham’s campaign in Makerfield.
Do either Reform or the Tories plan to withdraw from the ICC ?
That is nearly accurate in some cases.
I'm currently proof-reading honorary graduation orations for our ceremonies next week. One of them reeks of being Chat-GPT/Co-pilot. So many em dashes - always a sign of AI - that my page is bleeding...
https://xcancel.com/bryan_johnson/status/2072069730517860385
Yes, they are in a fatal position from which I think it is impossible to recover, not only because of missteps but because of the actual situation they have placed themselves in with its appearance, perhaps untrue of course, of being a posh boys racket only credible to the dim.
I repeat the suggestion that it is worth keeping an eye on the doings of Kruger, who is not a natural member of that set and is lying very low.
However, over the last couple of months this persona has been largely taken over by a different Farage: angry, grumpy and constantly moaning. I don't think the electorate will find his new persona as attractive as his previous one. I think they prefer Jekyll to Hyde.
Just a question of what time today Farage undoes all this.
Just a question of what time today Farage undoes all this.
Given the LDs are stubbornly sticking around the 10-13 range, they would be delighted to hold onto 70 seats.
This latest nonsense really looks like the implosion of a largely Astroturf party that rests on dodgy donations.
Not to say that British politics is in great shape- it clearly isn't- but Farage has played so fast and so loose that his lack of discipline will bring the REFUK project to naught well before the next general election.
Binface opens up the Fascist frog to the kind of ridicule that Trump and his acolytes find most difficult to deal with. The tantrum at the Sky camera and this absurd attempt to bat away fully legitimate questions about how he has been funded have made this the worst 24 hours for NF since he first infected British politics. A man whose moral compass was and remains pro Putin deserves to be defeated- it would be a remarkably British thing if that defeat came at the hands of a joke candidate, but ridicule is a more powerful weapon than outrage.
https://www.yorkpress.co.uk/news/26262768.large-fire-near-malton-hospital---live-updates/
I still think Reform can win, but it was never the complete certainty they understandably pretended it was.
1) You can dish it out and you can take it (Thatcher, Blair, Boris, Kinnock)
2) You can not dish it out but you can take it (Corbyn, Whitelaw, Ken Clarke)
3) You can dish it out but you can't take it (Farage, Gordon Brown, Lee Anderson)
In the long run we don't like (3) all that much.
I tend to agree about the number of seats that Reform can realistically win. There are several reasons for this, not least the Stop Reform vote. the Tories, in the past, have been victims of such negative voting (I mean voting against, rather than voting for). I think it will scupper Reform too. The candidates are also going to be a problem. Having seen what we've had so far rather suggests a lack of genuine quality amongst them, or the ability to reason, speak in public etc. We do like to deride our politicians, but this crowd are far worse.
Seems there is a question about whether this has been done yet.
Political X is waiting with the popcorn.
Ruth Fox
@RuthFox01
🧵Some important procedural / timing points come into play re this Farage by-election scenario.
1/ Since 1623 MPs have not been allowed simply to resign their seat.
https://x.com/RuthFox01/status/2074554620844605537
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jul/08/more-reform-uk-transactions-worth-millions-reported-to-national-agency
9-2 the Count! Binface shortening markedly on Betfair. Big Nige still 1-8 but was 1-25 last night
What’s genuinely funny is to see how Reform and their supporters cannot adjust. They have one pitch - all out, hysterical attack. They’re literally arguing with a bin. And they can’t recalibrate.
By a ratio of almost 2 to 1, people oppose Nigel Farage’s decision to call a by-election in Clacton.
Data from YouGov, released this morning.
https://bsky.app/profile/paulbrand.bsky.social/post/3mq4ji6ok6c2m
For councillors they cannot withdraw a resignation if made to the proper person, though granted there's no intermediate stage.
Trade with Spain will simply be routed through other EU countries.
Of course the really big businesses are Trump guys anyway.
If Reform were a proper party, they'd compile a record of donations to the Conservatives in particular but also Labour (including Labour Together). Whataboutery is the best form of defence.
It's not obvious that Farage has any good options from here (so yeah, all he can do it pick the least-bad one). And that's largely self-inflicted.
I've never been remotely tempted to vote for a joke candidate before, but if I lived in the constituency would be a committed Bin-voter.
I might even canvass for him.
I cant see how that will be enjoyable
As for the optics, the centre and centre-left parties have gambled somewhat, just as Farage has gambled (though his gamble is bigger). If Lozza Fox and Farage are the only candidates of note, and if they decide to take the byelection seriously and behave well (both big ifs), they could move the national debate to the right - 'Yes we both agree that Britain is in the grip of a blob-fuelled decline, but my policies for dealing with it are better.' And given that of the two, Farage is the more moderate (and we love the mushy middle here in the UK) Farage could end up looking sensible and electable.
Genuinely extraordinary.
I agree with you about the danger of Reform losing to more extreme politicians, and I flagged the possibility of Fox winning upthread, but I don't think that will come through a measured discussion of hard right policies that shifts the Overton window.
Same energy that brought you Boaty McBoatface
But it runs a lot of our world.
Farage’s greatest asset is his ability to have a laugh and take the piss - like his response to this line… also about bins: https://youtu.be/iX5X6RDtYBc?is=H51iJw4TTCEi6F2G, this too: https://youtu.be/ZRc0by2vZ7k?is=LF3k09dsZBj0GI0y
He really needs to embrace it. Have some fun with it. Drop the self-pity and hissy fits (great line from Keni tbf) .
The office of Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead does not normally fall vacant - usually it is filled by the next person but one to resign (the intermediate person being appointed to the Chiltern Hundreds).
If Farage takes the office of Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead, then wins the resulting by-election whilst holding this office, what happens? Surely he can't be a MP whilst also Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead?