Can Farage win as the anti-establishment candidate when his only opponent is a man with a dustbin on
Can Nigel Farage win as the anti-establishment candidate when his only opponent is a man with a dustbin on his head? – politicalbetting.com
Count Binface says he will stand against Nigel Farage in the Clacton by-election.For context, there's more chance of him winning (8.8) than Norway (18), Colombia (28), Morocco (36), Belgium (40) or Switzerland (90) winning the World Cup. pic.twitter.com/tkH1GHDjJ1
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Hmm.
https://ko-fi.com/countbinface
With the Greens not standing they don’t even have the polar opposites going up against each other narrative . Farage will be really pissed off .
Reform can spin this as much as they like but the opposition parties point that any by-election should have waited till after the investigation reported seems fair and would be supported by the vast majority of the public .
Galactic thanks for your support, you wonderful human, you. You've brought the return of Ceefax one step closer. CB
Its all a bit academic anyway, a) if he has breached the rules for the original donation, he will be in big trouble, likely recall and another by-election and b) if the media have a load more stories of taking dodgy money, the court of public opinion will bury him.
Privately educated, former city trader and 30 year politician with billionaire mates vs Oxford graduate and life long BBC script writer and producer who moonlights as a comedian.
Binface is never less funny than when he remoans.
But he's starting to lose the floating voters he needs to become next PM.
Is anyone here going to change their mind based on what the investigation says?
Probably since Martin Bell in 1997.
Funny thing this democracy business.
He cannot run!
He cannot hide!
I suspect he saw yesterdays MELTDOWN as a chance to
(a) deflect attention from him
(b) deflect attention from Burnham Coronation
(c) gird the loins of the Right Wing Media
(d) raise more money
ON ALMOST ALL COUNTS a spectacular failure
(a) he'll get nothing but derision
(b) he'll be an afterthought and will merelt make other Parties look serious
(c) with the exception of the puke inducing Christopher Hope / Tom Harwood and mad Nana the Right Wing media have sussed him
(d) he will raise tons more money and that will raise tons more questions.
Quite where this leave the other Parties who knows?
RESTORE may well pick up a fair share of the hard Right
TORIES may well pick up the slightly soft hard Right
BURNHAM / LABOUR will pick up a lot of ex Labour voters in Midlands / North who hated Starmer but who could never vote Tory but who worshipped on the altar af Farage
It's not at all implausible that the split could see Reform down to high teens, Tories up to low 20's, Labour up to high 20's,Restore in double figures.
Farage may well have had the dubious honour of fragmenting the right and hard right vote even more.
Reform / Restore / Tories battling for around 45% of the vote
More organised and tactically aware centre left looking at 50% of the vote
The Centre and soft left have a unique opportuntiy to destroy Farage, destroy the Tories and build something over a decade or more.
The key is what happens to the Tories, slowly edge further and further Right under Badenoch to oblivion or see the light and have a coup bringing in a One Nation Tory who could potentially galvanise the Centre and possibly win the 2029 GE!
🗑️🗑️🗑️
They seem to poll well with the public.
https://yougov.com/en-gb/daily-results/20260707-20277-3
The code is pretty clear that if in doubt report any donations in the previous year before you became an MP . The big problem for Farage is the changing reasons , so it was security then it was a reward for Brexit and then he just said he could spend the money on whatever he wanted .
The Chancellor refused to appoint Henry Cadogan MP for Reading to the Chiltern Hundreds in 1842 because he believed the MP was attempting to vacate his seat to conceal corrupt financial compromises and electoral bribery.
https://x.com/RhonddaBryant/status/2074739497145598096
Having his by-election refused, or being forced to go through with it, even though his only rival.is a man with a bin on his head?
On the "proud sprites cannot hear to be mocked" theory, I'd go with the latter.
I do entirely understand why, but I rather feel its saying to the voters of Clacton that they can't be trusted.
I know people have commented to the effect that the government should deny him the Chiltern Hundreds and thus kill off the by-election at source, but I don't think that realistic or desirable - the legal fiction supports the underlying principle that an MP should be absolutely at liberty to resign and denying that would be highly irregular. And won't happen.
So, to me, the only way Clacton doesn't get a by-election is if Nigel made the announcement but has not yet completed the formalities and u-turns on doing so, thinking it a lesser embarrassment than facing a novelty and fringe by-election.
The Republican Party for a Nobel in Physics?
1 Mr Farage is currently under investigation. It would be wrong to judge his innocence or guilt until that' investigation is finished.
2 Previous by-elections like this (DD in 2008, Ulster Unionists in.... when? have had other parties sitting them out. Forcing a by-election a pretty silly, almost childish, thing to do.
It would be a shame if the current occupant of that position felt that it should be up to her successor to make such an appointment, and that said successor thought it prudent to wait until the Standards Commisioner’s report had been completed…
I am currently of the view that the best approach is to have an independent, anti-corruption candidate, and you make the whole campaign about this one question. You say that Farage triggered the by-election on the issue, so that’s what you’re going to talk about. Weeks of Farage failing to answer questions, or changing reasons, would follow.
Regarding the first point, as Jacob Rees-Mogg pointed out, there is a problem with the whole procedure which is that it is the PC4S and Farage are bound by confidentiality but no-one else is. Anyone is free to say what they like about the allegations, and that includes headline-seeking journalists and political opponents. Oh, and us of course.
What she should do, is decide that the matter is so important that the First Lord of The Treasury should decide.
So forward the papers to his desk…
A plan to lock up (mostly) Muslims without trial on the basis of secret evidence, is something that few here would cheer for.
The Ulster Unionist thing is also interesting - it was a protest against the Anglo-Irish Agreement. An attempt at creating a referendum on the Unionist community. While performative, it was a genuine issue of substance. I would argue that by diverting opposition to such agreements into the political sphere, it played a part in the structure of the Peace Process as originally conceived - move the fighting to the ballot box.
Both were matters of principle and policy. As opposed to trying to kill an investigation into being an AirBnB Politician (short term rental)
And he is suspended from the Commons.
Any attempts to resolve Crimea's fuel crisis by sea seem to be over.
For most people, that is dodgy and unacceptable regardless of whether it was properly declared.
The investigation is just as to whether it should have been declared or not. It's almost irrelevant (either he should have and broke the rules, or he didn't need to and the rules are wrong).
Only point of interest is turnout and voteshare. I think he gets 85-90%, despite my respect for the count.
In the meantime, a silly candidate for a silly by-election is perfect.
Oh, and a bloke with a bin on his head is standing as well.
(It my be my CD tendencies, but I suspect that "bloke with a bin on his head" is a mirth-inducing phrase anyway. Try it.)
The alternative response would have been, “Bring it on. We believe in our case. We will fight you any time, any place.”
Now obviously if any of the other parties thought they could win they'd probably change their tune, but it's still a by election called as a stunt - that is effectively admitted by Farage, it's a stunt to demonstrate the public back him regardless - and i think the public is capable of understanding not playing along with a stunt.
But I think the parties are playing the right cards on the national stage. Drag out Farage firstly not being an MP, fighting a by-election against a man with a bin on head head, then coming back to the same parliamentary enquiries he left to escape before needing to fight a second more competitive by-election.
It probably keeps the £5m story in the media for most of the rest of the year. Especially if new angles are found.
Two deeply unserious carpetbaggers with insane manifestoes who pretend to be anti-establishment and are embroiled in innumerable legal troubles entirely born of their own grifting and stupidity.
And a bloke with a bin on his head.
Where we diverge is you seem to think voters will have no knowledge of why the parties did not stand the first time, since you said they'd need it explained to them, but apparently they will super care about it.
I think if there is a second by election (and there might not be after all) it will fire up anyone who dislikes Farage and even some former supporters, and they won't dwell on the last one.
No, that's not consult the wise, far sighted Scottish Football Association, but amounts to the same thing.
'And you'll never have to.'
The other parties aren’t waiting for all the facts to be available. They’re waiting for Farage to be judged guilty. But the voters can make their own judgement. You’ve got a whole by-election campaign to put the case to them. You can ask Farage all the questions the committee would’ve asked him.
He's obviously super worried about it or he'd not do sonething this dramatic, but opponents will still bring it up even if no rules were broken, because its a weakness of perception.
Polanski will face boob hypnosis jokes forever for the same reason.
Though since refusal hasn't happened in the last century it so, precedent is limited.
You might start feeling sorry for Farage.