Where did you come from, where did you go? Where did you come from, Andy Burnham?
Where did you come from, where did you go? Where did you come from, Andy Burnham? – politicalbetting.com
This polling isn’t surprising to me, given how Labour’s support under Sir Keir Starmer has splintered and moved to the Greens seeing Andy Burnham doing well with left leaning voters.
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Samsung and SK Hynix are each planning to spend well over double the cost of HS2 on building new chip fabs.
https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/business/companies/20260630/samsung-sk-chip-investment-timelines-leave-room-for-adjustment
Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix announced a combined 800 trillion won ($516.4 billion) investment commitment to establish advanced chip plants in Gwangju and South Jeolla Province in Korea's southwest, but stopped short of providing a timeline for when the investments will be made or construction will begin, leaving room to adjust their spending plans until the long-term memory chip cycle becomes clearer..
Astonishing levels of investment, probably financed from cash flow.
The Hynix chip business was acquired by SK Telecom in 2012 for a mere $3bn...
Amongst centrists though who don't want change to a more leftwing government as the polling shows Starmer still slightly outpolls Burnham. So if a Burnham government shifts in a leftwing tax and spend direction there is an opportunity for the Conservatives and LDs to win over some centrist swing voters who voted Conservative or LD in 2019 but for Starmer and Labour in 2024 but are not keen on Burnham and also hate Farage.
Think the nationalisation of your pension pot, qualifications on home ownership rights, and price and wage controls.
More or Less looking at the statistics behind the success of Manchesterism at 9am
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-chancellor-of-the-exchequer
The issue of where this or that billion comes from is secondary. Primary is: Is our defence secure, and if not, how not?
RFM: 28% (=)
LAB: 24% (+3)
CON: 20% (-2)
LDM: 12% (=)
GRN: 10% (=)
SNP: 2% (-1)
26-28 June
Also, Sir Keir Starmer should cancel his resignation.
How many people are really paying attention to politics - is this enough to give Burnham much of a bounce before he gets the job?
The interesting bit will be if Burnham manages to cut through on the Green vote.
* Great Yarmouth
Interesting; parties usually lose ground in the polls during changes of leadership, because of the perception of internal division and incoherence, etc.
Maybe Burnham is actually significantly more popular enough to have counteracted this.
Labour MP's will be pleased with that M.I.C poll.
Your title reminds me of an appropriate song:
"Oh where are you going, and can I come with you?
And what is your method for keeping alive:
no pack or possessions, no clothing or shelter,
no food to sustain you - how can you survive?"
That is an Iona Community Holy Week song, sung to the tune of The Streets of Laredo, or more prosaically to the Irish Song "The Unfortunate Rake" (presumably he left his iPad connected by mistake). One of their traditions is to recover 'secular' and 'popular' songs and tunes.
If he gets the job, we will find out - I hope.
The future of Farage truly is now a matter of timing. His time is over, though, as Yeats said, what rough beast slouches towards Clacton to be born remains known only to God.
Cotton Eye Joe.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mOYZaiDZ7BM
Last few years, no.
Big, shiny buildings can look impressive but what else is there to the Manchester economy which is different to that of Leeds, Liverpool or even Sheffield ?
I notice that the Manchester constituencies have more people claiming unemployment benefits than the equivalent Sheffield constituencies:
https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-8748/CBP-8748.pdf
Badenoch at -2, followed by Davey -7, Farage -17, Polanski -22 and Starmer up slightly from his lows at -44.
Brits now overwhelmingly think Starmer was right to resign by more than a 3 to 1 margin. Even Labour voters are almost 20pts more likely than not to say Starmer was right to resign.'
https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/2072222448301322527?s=20
https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/2072223257655206204?s=20
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaelic_psalm_singing
Some pollsters prompt for Restore on the first screen, others on the second screen but this poll gives the opportunity for people to say they are voting Restore.
Stats up to 2023 (latest info apparently).
Productivity growth 2019-2023 supposedly 14% but a lot of it is down to errors or reporting changes in the ONS stats gathering over that period, real wages rose by 1% in same period.
Changes from stats to "feel" after that, conclusion is that there "Manchesterism" is real but not as successful as claimed and that the root causes predate Burnham.
Checking, Cotton Eye Joe is a folk song with origins from the USA Deep South from around the early 1800s.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cotton-Eyed_Joe
I'd like to seem teh same groups polled on what labour and Burnham's israel policy should be and then seehow the two match up.
Peter.
https://youtu.be/tZ72md88J28?t=47
https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/seminal
Starmer probably did the admin executive side of being PM a bit better though Burnham has his experience as Manchester Mayor
Anything else ?
A lot of adult gaming centres on the ground floor of the seafront with signage for adult cabaret and other venues above along with a large number of overweight, poorly dressed tourists with buckets of shrapnel which didn't seem to equate with the revenue expectations of the upper floor businesses.
When we eventually found a chippy, it wasn't great.
But the real discussion only starts when Burnham takes office anyway.
Burnham has said that he won't rewrite the DiP, but so much of it is undefined that he'll be writing most of it anyway (or his SecDef will).
We know for sure that (eg) GCAP development is funded (£2bn a year for the next four years); the nuclear plans continue (AUKUS details totally unclear), but details of forces spending; the future of various armoured vehicle programs; numbers and timing of aircraft delivery etc are undefined.
Also undefined are "efficiency savings" (aka programme cuts), and cuts in other departments to pay for the extra £15bn, which is otherwise essentially unfunded.
In sum, almost a hospital pass from Starmer.
I think this is because I realise that radical change is very difficult to bring about. Positive change, I mean. Radical negative change (aka vandalism) is easy peasy. But big beneficial change (to a country) without lots of negative unforeseen consequences is difficult. To pull it off requires great application and ability.
Few politicians have this to a sufficient degree and therefore my feeling is that it's on the whole better for the country if they rein in the grand ambitions and concentrate on keeping the show on the road, avoid serious missteps, improve a few things, leave the place a little bit better for their time in charge.
So, yes, I guess I am (at least when feeling this way which I do most of the time) a Left Minimalist. I'm pleased there's a nice-sounding name for it.
Except not France, on the coast and not very profound.
The "It worked in Manchester lets do it everywhere!" arguement really only works if it has worked the other places it's been tried.
Rather than question if Machester really has delivered or delivered the right things, even with growth, isn't it better to see if the system has worked elsewhere before we roll it out to everywhere.
I have a feeling that Manchester success and it has attracted huge investement might be like the Docklands or globalisation, overall growth but uneven and concentrated, central Manchester being to the wider area what London is to teh South East.
Is the counterweight to London, lots of little Londons?
Peter.
The government is risking 100k+ jobs in manufacturing to save a few thousand in primary steel production. Absolutely insane.
If steelmaking is a strategic necessity (arguable either way) then government should subsidise it directly. Doing so via imposing another crippling burden on UK manufacturing is an act of national self-harm.
If, last year, you had told people that Badenoch would get significantly more popular, while Reform slipped back, they would reasonably have assumed the Tories would be doing better. But they aren’t. Understanding why is critical to thinking through how British politics will play out over the next few years.
This is the same strategic problem the Tories have had since Reform emerged as a serious threat. It is extremely difficult to win those voters back, as they have soured on the Conservative brand and like Farage. Badenoch has done nothing to structurally improve the Tory position. There is no policy agenda beyond pledges to undo Labour taxes rises by cutting welfare. Reform could see a further deterioration in its position. But so far those who have switched away from the party seem either to be going further rightwards, by supporting Restore, or telling pollsters they won’t vote. Which is why the Tories have not seen any improvement in their numbers.
Have a strategic reserve of specialist steels if that is required.
Starmer seemed overly willing to conflate any meaningful as opposed to token opposition to the actions of Israel with tendencies towards antisemitism. They should be regarded as entirely separate and that represents Burnham's opportunity. A robust approach to antisemitism can still be taken.
Taking actions which seriously piss off Netanyahu is an essential step. For example, in the absence of a change of Israeli policy there should be measures which would impact on Israel's economy. OK, the UK alone can't have too much of an effect, but if the UK joins other smaller nations like Spain in taking a lead others are more likely to follow, building up a critical mass. And limiting criminal sanctions against Gaza protesters to laws other than terrorism law (e.g. criminal damage) would also send a meaningful signal, as would dropping the appeal against the court ruling which has already outlawed such action. Israeli opinion will also be sensitive to once reliable allies turning on Israel as a result of Netanyahu's actions.
The political benefits for Burnham will be tangible. Alternatively, if Burnham sticks to token tut tutting and sanctions that don't extend beyond a handful of individuals alone, then attitudes to him on the radical or even left won't in time differ much from those towards Starmer.
PS. Phil
/commercial neighbourhoods is a much more reliable indicator of economic growth than plastering motorways everywhere. Indeed there is a strong negative correlation with the latter.
You can’t really avoid the fact it’s dense, compact cities like London, Edinburgh etc that generate most of the economic output in the UK, and the most potential lies with other cities like Leeds, Manchester, Liverpool which fall far behind their German/Dutch/French equivalents.
Andy Burnham has told female Labour MPs there will be a woman in every meeting in an effort to change the “boys’ club” culture at No 10.
Manchester is doing well as it is at the intersection of so many major motorways.
It is a hub and spoke success story, as is London which is similarly well connected with infrastructure.
The M6, M60, M62, M61, M56, M602, M66 and A57(M) all run to or through Manchester, which has helped Manchester's economic success.
Sadly other cities and towns are lagging as they are not so well connected.
Or other roles.
The British Army tried to move to deployable brigades in 2010 but the tories fucked it with the SDSR. Baldy Ben made the brigade officially the smallest autonomous unit in the 2012 "Future Soldier" bollocks. The whole Army is now structured around single battalion regiments in deployable brigades. Apart from the Ranger Regiment which looks like a structure in search of a mission.
There is no universe where the British Army goes back to deployable divisions, no matter how much money is pissed away in pursuit of it.
Anyway who's calling for more motorways ?
But we keep coming back to people renting flats in big, shiny buildings, often foreign owned, with the poor decanted to banlieues on the outskirts.
House price growth uber alles whereas in South Korea and Taiwan their big shiny buildings are for hi tech manufacturing.
In 1990 500 people lived within a mile of Piccadilly Gardens, now its 85,000 - the first figure is a census figure so 100% accurate.
https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/2072222428592312500
Fieldwork 26-28 June means after Starmer's resignation but before Burnham started to define himself as de facto PM with Monday's speech.
Both the Atlee and Thatcher governments were prepared to do that.
I don't see anyone in the traditional parties being willing or capable of so doing. And certainly not in either the left-populists or right-populists.
SKS fans please explain
I ascribe zero value to what you say on the subject, despite your military "experience".
https://x.com/jimmysecuk/status/2072209343647305902
The starving out of the Russian occupiers continues, there’s now one fewer route to get supplies to the front lines.
Originally inner urban working class poor renting.
Then empty of inhabitants.
Now middle classes renters in big, shiny buildings.
That's great for middle class types who want to rent a flat in a big, shiny building in a city centre.
Not so good for the descendants of the former inner urban working class now living in places like Gorton and Denton.
And pretty irrelevant to those who want to own an average house in an average suburb / town and have an average life.
But thankfully the best team doesn't always win the WC.
.................And arresting elderly vicars for writing 'Palestine Action' is taken as tacit approval for that genocide. Don't be fooled by Farage's facists. They are not the only voices that should have been heard
It's quite likely that scrapping Challenger is part of the "efficiency savings" which pay for most of the 'increase' in funding.
The UK has none of the modern auxiliary equipment to support MBT deployment (transport; recovery; bridging; supporting armoured combat vehicles). Fully equipping a single regiment would likely be around £2 to £3bn, and might cost £3 -500m a year to sustain overseas.
I've said before that it's unlikely the UK will ever again field an MBT regiment overseas. If they're not in place to blunt an invasion, then they are pretty useless anyway. And the future value of MBTs is in any event pretty uncertain.
If we want to contribute to European defence, far more cost effective (not least as it would also contribute directly to the defence of the UK, and give other options for overseas deployment - eg Cyprus of the Falklands) would be to increase the capabilities of the RAF, IMO.
They are a necessary enabler of economic activity, but not much more than that. The only part of the UK where you could reasonably argue that a lack of them is materially inhibiting growth is the NE of England, and even then I’m not convinced it would unlock boundless economic activity in County Durham.
Me, across the western side of the West Midlands conurbation. Or not even a motorway, just a single lane fast A road to by pass the bottlenecks linking to the M5. We seem to be the forgotten part of the UK in terms of major road construction.
It's a ridiculous situation where a 150 mile journey from Wolverhampton to Exeter takes about 3 hours 30 minutes but with the first 15 miles down the gridlocked A4123 to the M5 J2 taking 40 minutes even on a moderately good day. The absence of by-passes around Kidderminster and Wall Heath (Dudley) make the A449 alternative to J6 no quicker even using rat runs down suburban streets and single lane rural roads.
35 or so years ago the problem was recognised but a proposal for a Western Orbital Route was knocked on the head. But since then there have been no relevant changes to the road network here even on a much reduced scale while the traffic volumes have increased massively.
PS. Meanwhile going east or north from here instead of south we're the only part of the UK where you have to pay tolls to use a motorway.
It is still a big problem to solve, and it was the focus of the term that Andy Burnham had just been elected for - 'showing the path to the skyscrapers' - letting young people from Little Hulton or Hattersley share in and benefit from the growth that the city centre was going through. It's a long term project. But you need the growth first.
Gaza is a tragedy, but Burnham success or failure will not be about Gaza
Note that to get back to the Army of the noughties with a third division and a corps HQ, that would require an army of 112k, which we almost certainly wouldn't be willing to pay for right now, despite me personally being willing to back that too:
▶️I have modelled in some detail how the British Army ought to grow. Basically, to deliver a two division structure and make it deployable without relying on the Army Reserve, the Regular Army needs 83,000 personnel.
▶️If we want to raise a third division, it would need an additional 20,000 soldiers plus extra Corps unit headcount of 9,000 for a total size of 112,000. This was the approximate size of the Regular Army in 2010.
▶️ To make a three division structure credible, the Army would need to purchase to around £30 billion of additional equipment. This sounds huge, and it is, but, over ten years it's affordable and achievable.
▶️The problem is if we wait. We risk having to grow the Army very quickly over a 2 to 3 year period and needing to buy all the extra kit it needs as soon as possible. Which means buying what's available not what we want.
▶️This is what we did in 1937, but by that time it was too late. We had fallen too far behind. The process of re-arming proved to be very difficult and costly. We only finished paying off the debt in 2006.
▶️In the short-term, rather than growing the Army to 100,000, I would prefer to see the RN and RAF expanded. Instead, I believe the UK should reconstitute an Army of 83,000 and properly equip it.
▶️This requires an extra £3 to £4 billion per annum and around £10 billion in additional equipment spent between now and 2030.
https://x.com/nicholadrummond/status/1776228627446632811
We can't wait.
https://x.com/DKingTelegraph/status/2072090225237520673
What in any event would be the purpose of this army ?
In any case Gaza played a big part in the collapse of the Labour Party vote which I imagine should affect bettors’ thinking about a possible Labour renaissance under Burnham.