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  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 37,214

    I’ve never understood why people brag about their own social mobility.

    I’m the grandson of humble immigrants to the UK and look at me now.

    All thanks to my own hard work and supreme intelligence.

    ..and modesty, don't forget your modesty!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 129,124

    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What the fucking fuck is going on with school closures - never would have happened if we hadn't had Covid I reckon.

    Primary school rolls have dropped around 5% in the last half decade (birthrates and crackdown on immigration), and will likely fall another 7% by the end of the decade.
    Unless you switch from per pupil funding, and maintain overall funding in order to reduce class sizes, school closures are inevitable.
    I mean today lol.
    Probably staff not wanting/able to travel in, and the schools themselves just being too hot - so closing with union support.
    A week earlier and it would have buggered up kids doing their exams.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 57,210
    Perhaps it is worth re-publicising this report from a month ago:

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/may/20/uk-built-for-climate-that-no-longer-exists-and-needs-urgent-changes-to-survive-global-heating-report-warns?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

    Clearly we are nowhere near stopping climate change (and need to apply the brakes harder) but neither are we anywhere close to investing in the mitigations needed across our built landscape.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 37,214

    “It turns out appointing a spiteful class warrior as education secretary was a disaster,” said Badenoch.

    This one was too much for Starmer. “She grew up in poverty,” he said. It was a suitable enough note for his time to end on. If anything has defined the Starmer era, it has been the Four Yorkshiremenisation of politics. “Her story,” he said, “is an incredible story of social mobility and success.”

    Starmer’s government is full of incredible stories of social mobility, of which they are all extremely proud. None of them seem to have noticed that they all grew up under Margaret Thatcher.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/kemi-badenoch-keir-starmer-cabinet-mpcbvn5z9

    They grew up under Margaret Thatcher; they grew up in poverty.

    Let's see if we can spot the connection there.
    ...and were able through social mobility to reach the top.
    ...during the Blair years.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 57,210

    I’ve never understood why people brag about their own social mobility.

    I’m the grandson of humble immigrants to the UK and look at me now.

    All thanks to my own hard work and supreme intelligence.

    Me too, and all via Comprehensive schools to boot.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 18,602

    “It turns out appointing a spiteful class warrior as education secretary was a disaster,” said Badenoch.

    This one was too much for Starmer. “She grew up in poverty,” he said. It was a suitable enough note for his time to end on. If anything has defined the Starmer era, it has been the Four Yorkshiremenisation of politics. “Her story,” he said, “is an incredible story of social mobility and success.”

    Starmer’s government is full of incredible stories of social mobility, of which they are all extremely proud. None of them seem to have noticed that they all grew up under Margaret Thatcher.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/kemi-badenoch-keir-starmer-cabinet-mpcbvn5z9

    Nothing spiteful in closing a tax loophole for the rich in order to raise education spending and provide new pathways out of poverty. Funny how this "class warfare" stuff comes up whenever any tiny step is taken to redress this country's glaring inequalities, but doesn't apply to posh boy Osborne's austerity that fell disproportionately on northern working class areas. If the Tories want to fight the next election on a platform of defending inherited wealth and privilege they should absolutely go ahead and do that, it's their funeral.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 9,676
    algarkirk said:

    eek said:

    Roger said:

    Looks like Farage is dead in the water. It's difficult to see what he can do about it. A one man band sinking. You could feel sorry for those Tories who jumped ship last year if only they weren't such shits.

    Talking of shits Badenoch is getting hammered by Bridget Phillipson in an interview with Nick Robinson. What a performance! I've never particularly rated BP but I suppose she wouldn't have have achieved what she has if she wasn't any good. Her put down of Badenoch was tuned to perfection.

    Nige has decided defender of working class white boys is the way to go. Every lad should have the chance of receiving a £5m ‘gift’ from a crypto billionaire.

    White working-class boys are currently the lowest-performing group in the country’s education system thanks to the Equality Act.

    Reform will scrap it and return Britain to a meritocracy.

    https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/2069717952354554285?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
    There is a whopping large missing step between

    working-class white boys are currently the lowest-performing group and the equality act being part of the issue.

    working-class white boys have been and are the lowest performing group because other parents but more focus on the Education of their children and have higher expectations.

    Once again Farage is finding something that allows his voters to blame someone other than themselves.
    I think we can be sure that Farage won’t put any blame on the parents of working class white boys, he needs their votes!
    If you wanted to know how to best educate WWC boys in my area you could put together an interesting group of WWC men who have more or less never passed a school exam in their lives but now run businesses which employ people and provide essential services in a mostly rural community. You could also add add a sprinkling of WWC boys, now men, who went from the local comp to Oxford and Cambridge and are now senior professionals in law,, engineering and so on.

    Is there any group less understood by media and politicans than the white working class? Rule one is: Stop confusing the WWC with the benefits junkie class.

    I don't mean to be picky, but you focus only on men. I think WWC women could make an equally valuable contribution to why WWC boys are underachieving.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 15,714
    Sandpit said:

    Cicero said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    Burnham leads both Badenoch and Farage but Farage by more than he leads Kemi, so Kemi and the Tories may still be the best bet in marginal seats to beat Burnham and Labour

    Yes, and the Aberdeen South by-election suggests also that the Conservatives are, at the very least, no longer quite so toxic.
    Baddenoch is doing her very best to put that right!
    Badenoch is right. Putting vat on school fees is spiteful and nasty and typical of Labour.the Nasty party.
    That's the Election slogan in a nutshell
    It might work well on the 7% of parents with kids at private school, less so on the 93% who do not.
    The 7% are absolutely livid, but since the largest part of them would never vote Labour, the class war thinks it has a victor. However there are quite a large number of unintended consequences which make the School fees VAT policy a net negative. However, as so often in the UK, the detail is all in the too difficult box and so nobody cares.
    The negative consequences were all known in advance, and the government was warned about them.

    They did it anyway, because it’s an article of faith rather than a rational policy. Annoying the 7% was the whole point of doing it.
    The point of it was a votive offering for the Labour activists that wouldn't cost a fortune and would get them fired up for a GE ground war. On its own terms, it was a success. The fact that it keeps the wrong sort of upper lower middle class types out of pubic schools is just a bonus.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 37,214
    edited 8:51AM
    Foxy said:

    Perhaps it is worth re-publicising this report from a month ago:

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/may/20/uk-built-for-climate-that-no-longer-exists-and-needs-urgent-changes-to-survive-global-heating-report-warns?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

    Clearly we are nowhere near stopping climate change (and need to apply the brakes harder) but neither are we anywhere close to investing in the mitigations needed across our built landscape.

    Deleted - I'm better than that!
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 21,274

    Pulpstar said:

    What the fucking fuck is going on with school closures - never would have happened if we hadn't had Covid I reckon.

    Same at the Uni (research doesn't stop when the kiddies go home). We've closed our labs and the uni says to work from home if possible.
    I can't WFH (three year old son really shouldn't be commenting at an exam board) so I'm in a hot office. But its not that bad.
    I think a 3 year old would liven up an exam board meeting in a welcome manner.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 9,676
    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    Looks like Farage is dead in the water. It's difficult to see what he can do about it. A one man band sinking. You could feel sorry for those Tories who jumped ship last year if only they weren't such shits.

    Talking of shits Badenoch is getting hammered by Bridget Phillipson in an interview with Nick Robinson. What a performance! I've never particularly rated BP but I suppose she wouldn't have have achieved what she has if she wasn't any good. Her put down of Badenoch was tuned to perfection.

    Nige has decided defender of working class white boys is the way to go. Every lad should have the chance of receiving a £5m ‘gift’ from a crypto billionaire.

    White working-class boys are currently the lowest-performing group in the country’s education system thanks to the Equality Act.

    Reform will scrap it and return Britain to a meritocracy.

    https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/2069717952354554285?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
    Doesn't the school underperformance of WWC boys long predate the Equality Act of 2010, or indeed any other piece of similar legislation.

    I appreciate "Kes" is fiction, but it resonated because people recognised the issue even in the 1960s.
    You are right, and Farage doesn't have a clue. The underachievement of WWC boys has been a feature of our education system since at least 1945. Hence all the (failed) attempts to close the academic vs. vocational divide, where the former is valued much more highly than the latter.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,564
    I see David Daker has died. Will need to watch the Time Warrior again.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 62,097
    Another refinery on fire. This one at Ufa, 1,500km from Ukraine, and hit in broad daylight.

    https://x.com/angelshalagina/status/2070063223856845112

    It’s like shooting fish in a barrel at this point. How do you send drones 1,500km during the day, and they still make it to their target?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,564

    Pulpstar said:

    What the fucking fuck is going on with school closures - never would have happened if we hadn't had Covid I reckon.

    Same at the Uni (research doesn't stop when the kiddies go home). We've closed our labs and the uni says to work from home if possible.
    I can't WFH (three year old son really shouldn't be commenting at an exam board) so I'm in a hot office. But its not that bad.
    I think a 3 year old would liven up an exam board meeting in a welcome manner.
    Probably true. That or my cat. Or both.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,564
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Cicero said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    Burnham leads both Badenoch and Farage but Farage by more than he leads Kemi, so Kemi and the Tories may still be the best bet in marginal seats to beat Burnham and Labour

    Yes, and the Aberdeen South by-election suggests also that the Conservatives are, at the very least, no longer quite so toxic.
    Baddenoch is doing her very best to put that right!
    Badenoch is right. Putting vat on school fees is spiteful and nasty and typical of Labour.the Nasty party.
    That's the Election slogan in a nutshell
    It might work well on the 7% of parents with kids at private school, less so on the 93% who do not.
    The 7% are absolutely livid, but since the largest part of them would never vote Labour, the class war thinks it has a victor. However there are quite a large number of unintended consequences which make the School fees VAT policy a net negative. However, as so often in the UK, the detail is all in the too difficult box and so nobody cares.
    The negative consequences were all known in advance, and the government was warned about them.

    They did it anyway, because it’s an article of faith rather than a rational policy. Annoying the 7% was the whole point of doing it.
    The point of it was a votive offering for the Labour activists that wouldn't cost a fortune and would get them fired up for a GE ground war. On its own terms, it was a success. The fact that it keeps the wrong sort of upper lower middle class types out of pubic schools is just a bonus.
    See also Fox-hunting.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 57,210
    edited 8:53AM

    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What the fucking fuck is going on with school closures - never would have happened if we hadn't had Covid I reckon.

    Primary school rolls have dropped around 5% in the last half decade (birthrates and crackdown on immigration), and will likely fall another 7% by the end of the decade.
    Unless you switch from per pupil funding, and maintain overall funding in order to reduce class sizes, school closures are inevitable.
    I mean today lol.
    Locally, one primary school, in a Victorian brick building is fine. Very high ceilings, windows that open and create a draft - one do strong they have to watch doors crashing shut.

    Meanwhile the super up to date one in the shiny new “campus” turns out to be a lethal heat trap.
    I visited the hospital in Banjul in The Gambia some years ago. It was in two parts, a modern bit built by the Italians that could have been in any Italian town and air-conditioned, and an old Colonial British bit with high ceilings and walls of doors so the whole side of the ward could be opened for the air to circulate.

    The Italian bit was lovely when the power worked, less so when it did not. Patients seemed to prefer the old colonial bit most of the time. They were used to living outdoors.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 37,214
    IanB2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Third like Scotland.

    Do we have figures for Badenoch v Farage? That could be quite important.

    Good morning, everyone.

    How the anti-Reform tactical voting works come the General Election will also be crucial. Easy to vote against them in a by-election but tougher in many seats in a nationwide vote. No major party wants to give up on hundreds of seats.
    This is a very good point - it's not instantly clear in my constituency North Dorset for example. Maybe I will have to vote Tory for the first time in my life but how do I know?

    It will be one of the key LibDem targets, and the 2024 result - unlike those prior - put the LDs clearly in contention which should, if they campaign dynamically, allow them to pull over Labour and Green voters to beat the Tories. Of course a lot depends on the national state, especially of Tory v Reform, at the time - but I'd be surprised based on the current state of politics if voting Tory to defeat Reform proves a better choice than voting LibDem to defeat Reform.

    That would certainly sit easier with my conscience!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 37,523
    Morning all! Lovely and warm, but with a cooling breeze, here.

    What, Mr DA, are "upper lower middle class types"?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 48,101
    edited 8:56AM
    I presume this means Labour are still a decent favourite? I had read on here that Burnham jumping more or less guaranteed a Reform mayor.

    Paul Waugh MP
    @paulwaugh
    ·
    31m
    It’s a straight fight between Labour and Reform in the GM mayoral election, with just 3 points in it.

    Labour 33.%
    Reform 30.1%
    Greens 12.5%
    Con 11.1%
    LibDem 7.6%

    Those who want to keep Reform out - remember, you get a second preference.

    https://x.com/MENnewsdesk/status/2070035512350695514?s=20

  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 13,545

    I presume this means Labour are still a decent favourite? I had read on here that Burnham jumping more or less guaranteed a Reform mayor.

    Paul Waugh MP
    @paulwaugh
    ·
    31m
    It’s a straight fight between Labour and Reform in the GM mayoral election, with just 3 points in it.

    Labour 33.%
    Reform 30.1%
    Greens 12.5%
    Con 11.1%
    LibDem 7.6%

    Those who want to keep Reform out - remember, you get a second preference.

    https://x.com/MENnewsdesk/status/2070035512350695514?s=20

    Shortly after predicting Makerfield would be Labour’s Waterloo, one poster proclaimed that losing it was in fact a Farage tactical masterstroke as it allowed them to take the mayoralty. I was in awe of the prescience.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 23,171
    OllyT said:

    Nigelb said:

    eek said:

    How long before Burnham is found out? 12.months

    How long until Farage would be found out (if when elected) - equally less than 12 months.

    The thing is the UK is currently ungovernable - I'm hoping that Burnham has an idea of what needs to be done but we will see.

    Burnham definitely isn't perfect (see him giving WASPI more than 30 milliseconds) but it's going to depend on the team he puts around him.
    Farage has perhaps already been found out.
    The £5million "gift" has holed him below the waterline and I suspect he knows it..
    It's odd that such an accomplished liar hadn't taken the trouble to work out his story ahead of the story coming out. Producing two completely different stories on the same day even attracted the suspicions of those who went down all sorts of rabbit holes with him
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 129,124
    I see those stories about Burnham’s wife were utter bollocks.

    https://x.com/michaelsavage/status/2070036699242004684?s=61&t=c6bcp0cjChLfQN5Tc8A_6g
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 37,214
    DougSeal said:

    I presume this means Labour are still a decent favourite? I had read on here that Burnham jumping more or less guaranteed a Reform mayor.

    Paul Waugh MP
    @paulwaugh
    ·
    31m
    It’s a straight fight between Labour and Reform in the GM mayoral election, with just 3 points in it.

    Labour 33.%
    Reform 30.1%
    Greens 12.5%
    Con 11.1%
    LibDem 7.6%

    Those who want to keep Reform out - remember, you get a second preference.

    https://x.com/MENnewsdesk/status/2070035512350695514?s=20

    Shortly after predicting Makerfield would be Labour’s Waterloo, one poster proclaimed that losing it was in fact a Farage tactical masterstroke as it allowed them to take the mayoralty. I was in awe of the prescience.
    We need @Leon_VotedForStarmer's prediction so that we can know what's not going to happen.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,778
    DougSeal said:

    I presume this means Labour are still a decent favourite? I had read on here that Burnham jumping more or less guaranteed a Reform mayor.

    Paul Waugh MP
    @paulwaugh
    ·
    31m
    It’s a straight fight between Labour and Reform in the GM mayoral election, with just 3 points in it.

    Labour 33.%
    Reform 30.1%
    Greens 12.5%
    Con 11.1%
    LibDem 7.6%

    Those who want to keep Reform out - remember, you get a second preference.

    https://x.com/MENnewsdesk/status/2070035512350695514?s=20

    Shortly after predicting Makerfield would be Labour’s Waterloo, one poster proclaimed that losing it was in fact a Farage tactical masterstroke as it allowed them to take the mayoralty. I was in awe of the prescience.
    The mayoral vote is via SV iirc.

    In what world did Reform think they had much of a chance with that in place?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 51,053

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    'Trump describes Burnham as 'the mayor of a town' and 'extremely liberal'

    Donald Trump has given his first public reaction to the prospect of the former Mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham becoming prime minister.

    Campaigning during the Makerfield by-election, Burnham said the UK needed to avoid what he called the "polarised, poisonous politics" of the US.

    Asked his view of the current frontrunner to replace Sir Keir Starmer, Trump described him as "the mayor of a town" and said he had heard Burnham was "extremely liberal".'

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/cly81w5g1qwo

    Does Trump still approve of Mamdani? He was positive about him when remined that Mamdani had called him a 'despot with fascist tendencies':

    https://youtu.be/vR9g4lJNTj0?t=59

    I'd say is a better tactic for Burnham to stick to his values, rather than try and navigate Trump's ever changing deranged ramblings, and to ignore the random Trump verbal knee jerks, which should perhaps normally be forgotten 6 hours later.

    I'd also say that Trump may be a species of lame duck very, very soon - which may make a difference.
    Ignoring Trump is not enough for Burnham. That's broadly what Starmer did, once he was past his overtly a***licking phase of the first year which essentially defines him even now. Push back is needed, not necessarily to the extent of Carney and now Meloni, but enough to be noticed here as a change of approach. And the more that Burnham does so, the more it allows him to put Farage and Badenoch on the spot.

    Not only is Trump heading towards being a lame duck (as you say), the geopolitical need to appease him has receded now that Ukraine is increasingly holding its own despite the loss of much of the support from the US.
    100%. Sucking up to Trump is neither in the national interest nor Burnham's political interest. Arms length, no courting, no pandering. In particular don't mince words out of fear of upsetting him. That's the way to go. I'm pretty sure Burnham will have worked this out.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 13,545

    DougSeal said:

    I presume this means Labour are still a decent favourite? I had read on here that Burnham jumping more or less guaranteed a Reform mayor.

    Paul Waugh MP
    @paulwaugh
    ·
    31m
    It’s a straight fight between Labour and Reform in the GM mayoral election, with just 3 points in it.

    Labour 33.%
    Reform 30.1%
    Greens 12.5%
    Con 11.1%
    LibDem 7.6%

    Those who want to keep Reform out - remember, you get a second preference.

    https://x.com/MENnewsdesk/status/2070035512350695514?s=20

    Shortly after predicting Makerfield would be Labour’s Waterloo, one poster proclaimed that losing it was in fact a Farage tactical masterstroke as it allowed them to take the mayoralty. I was in awe of the prescience.
    We need @Leon_VotedForStarmer's prediction so that we can know what's not going to happen.
    This has been quite a long ban for the Bard of Belsize Park or wherever he lives
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 57,210

    algarkirk said:

    eek said:

    Roger said:

    Looks like Farage is dead in the water. It's difficult to see what he can do about it. A one man band sinking. You could feel sorry for those Tories who jumped ship last year if only they weren't such shits.

    Talking of shits Badenoch is getting hammered by Bridget Phillipson in an interview with Nick Robinson. What a performance! I've never particularly rated BP but I suppose she wouldn't have have achieved what she has if she wasn't any good. Her put down of Badenoch was tuned to perfection.

    Nige has decided defender of working class white boys is the way to go. Every lad should have the chance of receiving a £5m ‘gift’ from a crypto billionaire.

    White working-class boys are currently the lowest-performing group in the country’s education system thanks to the Equality Act.

    Reform will scrap it and return Britain to a meritocracy.

    https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/2069717952354554285?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
    There is a whopping large missing step between

    working-class white boys are currently the lowest-performing group and the equality act being part of the issue.

    working-class white boys have been and are the lowest performing group because other parents but more focus on the Education of their children and have higher expectations.

    Once again Farage is finding something that allows his voters to blame someone other than themselves.
    I think we can be sure that Farage won’t put any blame on the parents of working class white boys, he needs their votes!
    If you wanted to know how to best educate WWC boys in my area you could put together an interesting group of WWC men who have more or less never passed a school exam in their lives but now run businesses which employ people and provide essential services in a mostly rural community. You could also add add a sprinkling of WWC boys, now men, who went from the local comp to Oxford and Cambridge and are now senior professionals in law,, engineering and so on.

    Is there any group less understood by media and politicans than the white working class? Rule one is: Stop confusing the WWC with the benefits junkie class.

    I don't mean to be picky, but you focus only on men. I think WWC women could make an equally valuable contribution to why WWC boys are underachieving.
    And to be a bit socially conservative, one of the major factors in poor school performance is absent fathers, both because of the resulting poverty, but also the lack of positive role models.

  • MattWMattW Posts: 33,752
    OllyT said:

    Nigelb said:

    eek said:

    How long before Burnham is found out? 12.months

    How long until Farage would be found out (if when elected) - equally less than 12 months.

    The thing is the UK is currently ungovernable - I'm hoping that Burnham has an idea of what needs to be done but we will see.

    Burnham definitely isn't perfect (see him giving WASPI more than 30 milliseconds) but it's going to depend on the team he puts around him.
    Farage has perhaps already been found out.
    The £5million "gift" has holed him below the waterline and I suspect he knows it..
    An equally interesting number is that Reform UK have received around £25 million in donations from Christopher Harborne since 2019 (founded as Brexit Party). That is more than half the ~£45m total.

    https://donation.watch/en/unitedkingdom/party/REFORM/donors
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,564
    edited 9:12AM
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 13,545
    edited 9:14AM
    If we’re going to have a monarchy may as well do it properly with huge fans made of ostrich feathers operated by eunuchs rather than this pathetic little electric thing
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,777

    DougSeal said:

    I presume this means Labour are still a decent favourite? I had read on here that Burnham jumping more or less guaranteed a Reform mayor.

    Paul Waugh MP
    @paulwaugh
    ·
    31m
    It’s a straight fight between Labour and Reform in the GM mayoral election, with just 3 points in it.

    Labour 33.%
    Reform 30.1%
    Greens 12.5%
    Con 11.1%
    LibDem 7.6%

    Those who want to keep Reform out - remember, you get a second preference.

    https://x.com/MENnewsdesk/status/2070035512350695514?s=20

    Shortly after predicting Makerfield would be Labour’s Waterloo, one poster proclaimed that losing it was in fact a Farage tactical masterstroke as it allowed them to take the mayoralty. I was in awe of the prescience.
    The mayoral vote is via SV iirc.

    In what world did Reform think they had much of a chance with that in place?
    Because they are richly beloved by all Northerners*

    *Data collected from the Home Counties and bots in Nigeria.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 6,038
    edited 9:14AM
    Sandpit said:

    Another refinery on fire. This one at Ufa, 1,500km from Ukraine, and hit in broad daylight.

    https://x.com/angelshalagina/status/2070063223856845112

    It’s like shooting fish in a barrel at this point. How do you send drones 1,500km during the day, and they still make it to their target?

    Someone somewhere has made a very detailed map of Russian air defence installations.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 33,752

    Sandpit said:

    Another refinery on fire. This one at Ufa, 1,500km from Ukraine, and hit in broad daylight.

    https://x.com/angelshalagina/status/2070063223856845112

    It’s like shooting fish in a barrel at this point. How do you send drones 1,500km during the day, and they still make it to their target?

    Someone somewhere has made a very detailed map of Russian air defence installations.
    The Russian Government? :smile:
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 51,053
    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    I presume this means Labour are still a decent favourite? I had read on here that Burnham jumping more or less guaranteed a Reform mayor.

    Paul Waugh MP
    @paulwaugh
    ·
    31m
    It’s a straight fight between Labour and Reform in the GM mayoral election, with just 3 points in it.

    Labour 33.%
    Reform 30.1%
    Greens 12.5%
    Con 11.1%
    LibDem 7.6%

    Those who want to keep Reform out - remember, you get a second preference.

    https://x.com/MENnewsdesk/status/2070035512350695514?s=20

    Shortly after predicting Makerfield would be Labour’s Waterloo, one poster proclaimed that losing it was in fact a Farage tactical masterstroke as it allowed them to take the mayoralty. I was in awe of the prescience.
    We need @Leon_VotedForStarmer's prediction so that we can know what's not going to happen.
    This has been quite a long ban for the Bard of Belsize Park or wherever he lives
    Just checked his account. Interestingly his post count is exactly 69,000.

    We make of that what we will - which I'm not sure is anything at all.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 8,322

    Sandpit said:

    Another refinery on fire. This one at Ufa, 1,500km from Ukraine, and hit in broad daylight.

    https://x.com/angelshalagina/status/2070063223856845112

    It’s like shooting fish in a barrel at this point. How do you send drones 1,500km during the day, and they still make it to their target?

    Someone somewhere has made a very detailed map of Russian air defence installations.
    And they are all on the way to Moscow anyway.

    I'm a bit surprised an attempt hasn't been made on the Yelabuga drone factory. Maybe the range limits the payload that can be carried, and drones are less effective against something that doesn't by nature burn, like an oil refinery
  • FossFoss Posts: 2,785
    edited 9:26AM

    Sandpit said:

    Another refinery on fire. This one at Ufa, 1,500km from Ukraine, and hit in broad daylight.

    https://x.com/angelshalagina/status/2070063223856845112

    It’s like shooting fish in a barrel at this point. How do you send drones 1,500km during the day, and they still make it to their target?

    Someone somewhere has made a very detailed map of Russian air defence installations.
    And they are all on the way to Moscow anyway.

    I'm a bit surprised an attempt hasn't been made on the Yelabuga drone factory. Maybe the range limits the payload that can be carried, and drones are less effective against something that doesn't by nature burn, like an oil refinery
    A destroyed drone factory can be more easily covered up and ignored than a petrol-less petrol station.

    The 2000 fuel protest were pretty much the only thing that dented Labour's polling during that first term. The Ukrainians are never going to win by taking Moscow - they don't have the people - but that doesn't matter if the Russians take it for them.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 3,269
    Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    eek said:

    Roger said:

    Looks like Farage is dead in the water. It's difficult to see what he can do about it. A one man band sinking. You could feel sorry for those Tories who jumped ship last year if only they weren't such shits.

    Talking of shits Badenoch is getting hammered by Bridget Phillipson in an interview with Nick Robinson. What a performance! I've never particularly rated BP but I suppose she wouldn't have have achieved what she has if she wasn't any good. Her put down of Badenoch was tuned to perfection.

    Nige has decided defender of working class white boys is the way to go. Every lad should have the chance of receiving a £5m ‘gift’ from a crypto billionaire.

    White working-class boys are currently the lowest-performing group in the country’s education system thanks to the Equality Act.

    Reform will scrap it and return Britain to a meritocracy.

    https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/2069717952354554285?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
    There is a whopping large missing step between

    working-class white boys are currently the lowest-performing group and the equality act being part of the issue.

    working-class white boys have been and are the lowest performing group because other parents but more focus on the Education of their children and have higher expectations.

    Once again Farage is finding something that allows his voters to blame someone other than themselves.
    I think we can be sure that Farage won’t put any blame on the parents of working class white boys, he needs their votes!
    If you wanted to know how to best educate WWC boys in my area you could put together an interesting group of WWC men who have more or less never passed a school exam in their lives but now run businesses which employ people and provide essential services in a mostly rural community. You could also add add a sprinkling of WWC boys, now men, who went from the local comp to Oxford and Cambridge and are now senior professionals in law,, engineering and so on.

    Is there any group less understood by media and politicans than the white working class? Rule one is: Stop confusing the WWC with the benefits junkie class.

    I don't mean to be picky, but you focus only on men. I think WWC women could make an equally valuable contribution to why WWC boys are underachieving.
    And to be a bit socially conservative, one of the major factors in poor school performance is absent fathers, both because of the resulting poverty, but also the lack of positive role models.

    Aren't they absent because they're not positive role models?
    My sibling's teaching experience is of single parents highly supportive of education and learning in one area contrasted with kids with both parents in the family home totally dismissive of education in another area. The parent(s) attitude to education is far more important than the number of parents.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 6,038
    MattW said:

    Sandpit said:

    Another refinery on fire. This one at Ufa, 1,500km from Ukraine, and hit in broad daylight.

    https://x.com/angelshalagina/status/2070063223856845112

    It’s like shooting fish in a barrel at this point. How do you send drones 1,500km during the day, and they still make it to their target?

    Someone somewhere has made a very detailed map of Russian air defence installations.
    The Russian Government? :smile:
    Ha! Could well be.

    That, someone with a fancy satellite, or just sending enough drones to work out which routes work and which routes don't.

    The problem for Russia is that it is just too big. Perhaps Ukraine could assist by making it a bit smaller?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 90,227
    .

    I see those stories about Burnham’s wife were utter bollocks.

    https://x.com/michaelsavage/status/2070036699242004684?s=61&t=c6bcp0cjChLfQN5Tc8A_6g

    But you'll note that the bollocks attracted far more attention than the fact check.
    Anatomy of a smear.

    Along those lines, someone should take a leaf out of LBJ's book, and ask Farage if he's stopped f***ing pigs.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,564
    kinabalu said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    I presume this means Labour are still a decent favourite? I had read on here that Burnham jumping more or less guaranteed a Reform mayor.

    Paul Waugh MP
    @paulwaugh
    ·
    31m
    It’s a straight fight between Labour and Reform in the GM mayoral election, with just 3 points in it.

    Labour 33.%
    Reform 30.1%
    Greens 12.5%
    Con 11.1%
    LibDem 7.6%

    Those who want to keep Reform out - remember, you get a second preference.

    https://x.com/MENnewsdesk/status/2070035512350695514?s=20

    Shortly after predicting Makerfield would be Labour’s Waterloo, one poster proclaimed that losing it was in fact a Farage tactical masterstroke as it allowed them to take the mayoralty. I was in awe of the prescience.
    We need @Leon_VotedForStarmer's prediction so that we can know what's not going to happen.
    This has been quite a long ban for the Bard of Belsize Park or wherever he lives
    Just checked his account. Interestingly his post count is exactly 69,000.

    We make of that what we will - which I'm not sure is anything at all.
    Considering that it is widely believed that the person behind that persona has regenerated more times than an itinerant Tardis thief, thats a shockingly high number of posts.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,564
    Nigelb said:

    .

    I see those stories about Burnham’s wife were utter bollocks.

    https://x.com/michaelsavage/status/2070036699242004684?s=61&t=c6bcp0cjChLfQN5Tc8A_6g

    But you'll note that the bollocks attracted far more attention than the fact check.
    Anatomy of a smear.

    Along those lines, someone should take a leaf out of LBJ's book, and ask Farage if he's stopped f***ing pigs.
    Bit harsh on his wife.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,947

    MattW said:

    Sandpit said:

    Another refinery on fire. This one at Ufa, 1,500km from Ukraine, and hit in broad daylight.

    https://x.com/angelshalagina/status/2070063223856845112

    It’s like shooting fish in a barrel at this point. How do you send drones 1,500km during the day, and they still make it to their target?

    Someone somewhere has made a very detailed map of Russian air defence installations.
    The Russian Government? :smile:
    Ha! Could well be.

    That, someone with a fancy satellite, or just sending enough drones to work out which routes work and which routes don't.

    The problem for Russia is that it is just too big. Perhaps Ukraine could assist by making it a bit smaller?
    You can buy commercial satellite imagery with 60cm resolution, for anywhere*

    When you combine that with pattern recognition image searching, it’s just compute time to find any significant air defence systems.

    *various governments lean on the providers to try and get them to “hide” certain areas. With limited success.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 5,357
    edited 9:32AM
    Foxy said:

    Perhaps it is worth re-publicising this report from a month ago:

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/may/20/uk-built-for-climate-that-no-longer-exists-and-needs-urgent-changes-to-survive-global-heating-report-warns?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

    Clearly we are nowhere near stopping climate change (and need to apply the brakes harder) but neither are we anywhere close to investing in the mitigations needed across our built landscape.

    Yes, climate change is at least as much of an existential threat to the country as are national foes such as Russia or China. It really needs to be given the same level of priority as military defence with regard to both mitigation and adaptation.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 90,227
    edited 9:33AM
    This scheme for guided ammunition seems quite clever (if it can be made to work, and also cheap enough to compete with low cost missiles).

    https://warsight.com/2026/06/22/eurosatory-2026-ng-guided-50-mm-concept/
    ..Assuming the physics at work has been understood correctly, it should operate roughly like so:

    When the projectile needs to turn, the rear collar becomes internally coupled to the main body of the projectile. This harnesses the air resistance acting on the collar’s strakes and transfers it to the main body of the projectile. This acts as a brake on the projectile spin rate, inducing a torquing motion opposite the direction of spin, transferred via the internal coupling, to slow down the projectile spin rate to the desired level. As this spin rate slows, the projectile reaches the desired level of gyroscopic stability, and becomes more susceptible to having its direction changed. At this point, the flap on the collar can be ‘locked’ into a stable position relative to the Earth, to induce an aerodynamic moment (turning force) on the projectile, acting as a rudder, and thereby allowing the projectile to be steered in the desired direction. This same operating principle can also be used to extend the projectile’s range.

    This is an extremely clever piece of engineering, and on paper looks to have a number of advantages over various other types of steering system. Unlike single-use thrusters, or jettisonable weights, it can be used to change the projectile’s direction multiple times over the course of its trajectory. Unlike fin-guided projectiles, it takes full advantage of the projectile’s spin stabilisation. Additionally, mounting the entire steering mechanism in the rear is more space- and weight-efficient than most pop-out fin designs, which must sacrifice more of their available volume to accommodate the fins. While the technology is still some ways from being fielded, it nonetheless looks like a highly promising approach.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 57,210
    Dopermean said:

    Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    eek said:

    Roger said:

    Looks like Farage is dead in the water. It's difficult to see what he can do about it. A one man band sinking. You could feel sorry for those Tories who jumped ship last year if only they weren't such shits.

    Talking of shits Badenoch is getting hammered by Bridget Phillipson in an interview with Nick Robinson. What a performance! I've never particularly rated BP but I suppose she wouldn't have have achieved what she has if she wasn't any good. Her put down of Badenoch was tuned to perfection.

    Nige has decided defender of working class white boys is the way to go. Every lad should have the chance of receiving a £5m ‘gift’ from a crypto billionaire.

    White working-class boys are currently the lowest-performing group in the country’s education system thanks to the Equality Act.

    Reform will scrap it and return Britain to a meritocracy.

    https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/2069717952354554285?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
    There is a whopping large missing step between

    working-class white boys are currently the lowest-performing group and the equality act being part of the issue.

    working-class white boys have been and are the lowest performing group because other parents but more focus on the Education of their children and have higher expectations.

    Once again Farage is finding something that allows his voters to blame someone other than themselves.
    I think we can be sure that Farage won’t put any blame on the parents of working class white boys, he needs their votes!
    If you wanted to know how to best educate WWC boys in my area you could put together an interesting group of WWC men who have more or less never passed a school exam in their lives but now run businesses which employ people and provide essential services in a mostly rural community. You could also add add a sprinkling of WWC boys, now men, who went from the local comp to Oxford and Cambridge and are now senior professionals in law,, engineering and so on.

    Is there any group less understood by media and politicans than the white working class? Rule one is: Stop confusing the WWC with the benefits junkie class.

    I don't mean to be picky, but you focus only on men. I think WWC women could make an equally valuable contribution to why WWC boys are underachieving.
    And to be a bit socially conservative, one of the major factors in poor school performance is absent fathers, both because of the resulting poverty, but also the lack of positive role models.

    Aren't they absent because they're not positive role models?
    My sibling's teaching experience is of single parents highly supportive of education and learning in one area contrasted with kids with both parents in the family home totally dismissive of education in another area. The parent(s) attitude to education is far more important than the number of parents.
    I am sure that many absent fathers are not positive role models, though some may well be.

    I see the Andrew Tates and his wannabees of this world as extremely bad influences on teenage boys. Yet they have Farage's ear.

    The Christian fundamentalists of MAGA do at least pay lip service to marriage and fatherhood, albeit of a rather controlling type.

    Is it any wonder that 40% of single mums under 30 have never even co-habited? Why would they want to?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,915
    https://x.com/pinstripedline/status/2069855201549549783

    Sir Humphrey @pinstripedline
    If you want to live in walking distance of Salisburys beautiful 123m high cathedral, the house that Sergei Skripal lived in and the GRU used novichok at is up for sale...

    I cant begin to imagine what the conveyancing searches will say!


    Shared ownership...

    https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/90003912#/?channel=RES_BUY
  • boulayboulay Posts: 9,073
    Foxy said:

    I’ve never understood why people brag about their own social mobility.

    I’m the grandson of humble immigrants to the UK and look at me now.

    All thanks to my own hard work and supreme intelligence.

    Me too, and all via Comprehensive schools to boot.
    Whilst Peter Symonds is technically a comprehensive 6th form it’s a step above most schools public and state. It can be very picky about who gets in and is usually stacked with kids from private schools who go there for 6th form and the catchment is a wealthy part of the world without much deprivation and parents who don’t care about their kids. It’s every bit as good educationally as any of the top public and private schools.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 6,038

    MattW said:

    Sandpit said:

    Another refinery on fire. This one at Ufa, 1,500km from Ukraine, and hit in broad daylight.

    https://x.com/angelshalagina/status/2070063223856845112

    It’s like shooting fish in a barrel at this point. How do you send drones 1,500km during the day, and they still make it to their target?

    Someone somewhere has made a very detailed map of Russian air defence installations.
    The Russian Government? :smile:
    Ha! Could well be.

    That, someone with a fancy satellite, or just sending enough drones to work out which routes work and which routes don't.

    The problem for Russia is that it is just too big. Perhaps Ukraine could assist by making it a bit smaller?
    You can buy commercial satellite imagery with 60cm resolution, for anywhere*

    When you combine that with pattern recognition image searching, it’s just compute time to find any significant air defence systems.

    *various governments lean on the providers to try and get them to “hide” certain areas. With limited success.
    I assume radar emissions would also be detectable from low angles, although probably not on a commercial platform?
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 5,274
    IanB2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Third like Scotland.

    Do we have figures for Badenoch v Farage? That could be quite important.

    Good morning, everyone.

    How the anti-Reform tactical voting works come the General Election will also be crucial. Easy to vote against them in a by-election but tougher in many seats in a nationwide vote. No major party wants to give up on hundreds of seats.
    This is a very good point - it's not instantly clear in my constituency North Dorset for example. Maybe I will have to vote Tory for the first time in my life but how do I know?

    It will be one of the key LibDem targets, and the 2024 result - unlike those prior - put the LDs clearly in contention which should, if they campaign dynamically, allow them to pull over Labour and Green voters to beat the Tories. Of course a lot depends on the national state, especially of Tory v Reform, at the time - but I'd be surprised based on the current state of politics if voting Tory to defeat Reform proves a better choice than voting LibDem to defeat Reform.

    I agree, in fact your closing comment is rather an understatement. The LDs were 2nd in 2024 with 33.5% just 3% behind the Conservatives who have lost a large share of their vote nationally to Reform since. So North Dorset is definitely the sort of seat the LDs could pick up even if they just maintain their 2024 vote share nationally, which is broadly what they are doing at the moment. It's the sort of seat where demographics suggest that the Con-Reform vote should now be fairly evenly split, in contrast to the 2:1 ratio outcome in 2024. There is also the potential to effect a quite significant tactical squeeze on the 2024 Lab and Green vote totalling 13% still. The 3% deficit on the Conservatives lends itself to a tactical anti Con-Reform voting squeeze, in contrast to 2024 when the LDs started off about 43% behind the Conservatives in 1st.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 57,210
    boulay said:

    Foxy said:

    I’ve never understood why people brag about their own social mobility.

    I’m the grandson of humble immigrants to the UK and look at me now.

    All thanks to my own hard work and supreme intelligence.

    Me too, and all via Comprehensive schools to boot.
    Whilst Peter Symonds is technically a comprehensive 6th form it’s a step above most schools public and state. It can be very picky about who gets in and is usually stacked with kids from private schools who go there for 6th form and the catchment is a wealthy part of the world without much deprivation and parents who don’t care about their kids. It’s every bit as good educationally as any of the top public and private schools.
    Yes, I think that was true even 40 something years ago, but I have only ever attended Comprehensive schools. I went to Peter Symonds from Montgomery of Alamein School, which was a Secondary Modern turned Comprehensive.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 37,523
    Nigelb said:

    This scheme for guided ammunition seems quite clever (if it can be made to work, and also cheap enough to compete with low cost missiles).

    https://warsight.com/2026/06/22/eurosatory-2026-ng-guided-50-mm-concept/
    ..Assuming the physics at work has been understood correctly, it should operate roughly like so:

    When the projectile needs to turn, the rear collar becomes internally coupled to the main body of the projectile. This harnesses the air resistance acting on the collar’s strakes and transfers it to the main body of the projectile. This acts as a brake on the projectile spin rate, inducing a torquing motion opposite the direction of spin, transferred via the internal coupling, to slow down the projectile spin rate to the desired level. As this spin rate slows, the projectile reaches the desired level of gyroscopic stability, and becomes more susceptible to having its direction changed. At this point, the flap on the collar can be ‘locked’ into a stable position relative to the Earth, to induce an aerodynamic moment (turning force) on the projectile, acting as a rudder, and thereby allowing the projectile to be steered in the desired direction. This same operating principle can also be used to extend the projectile’s range.

    This is an extremely clever piece of engineering, and on paper looks to have a number of advantages over various other types of steering system. Unlike single-use thrusters, or jettisonable weights, it can be used to change the projectile’s direction multiple times over the course of its trajectory. Unlike fin-guided projectiles, it takes full advantage of the projectile’s spin stabilisation. Additionally, mounting the entire steering mechanism in the rear is more space- and weight-efficient than most pop-out fin designs, which must sacrifice more of their available volume to accommodate the fins. While the technology is still some ways from being fielded, it nonetheless looks like a highly promising approach.

    The doodle-bugs in WWII used to be programmed to switch the engine off over the right place.

    Didn't always work, of course. Stories of RAF pilots flying fighters underneath, just close enough to be able to turn them and sending them back whence they came.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 28,165

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    Looks like Farage is dead in the water. It's difficult to see what he can do about it. A one man band sinking. You could feel sorry for those Tories who jumped ship last year if only they weren't such shits.

    Talking of shits Badenoch is getting hammered by Bridget Phillipson in an interview with Nick Robinson. What a performance! I've never particularly rated BP but I suppose she wouldn't have have achieved what she has if she wasn't any good. Her put down of Badenoch was tuned to perfection.

    Nige has decided defender of working class white boys is the way to go. Every lad should have the chance of receiving a £5m ‘gift’ from a crypto billionaire.

    White working-class boys are currently the lowest-performing group in the country’s education system thanks to the Equality Act.

    Reform will scrap it and return Britain to a meritocracy.

    https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/2069717952354554285?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
    Doesn't the school underperformance of WWC boys long predate the Equality Act of 2010, or indeed any other piece of similar legislation.

    I appreciate "Kes" is fiction, but it resonated because people recognised the issue even in the 1960s.
    You are right, and Farage doesn't have a clue. The underachievement of WWC boys has been a feature of our education system since at least 1945. Hence all the (failed) attempts to close the academic vs. vocational divide, where the former is valued much more highly than the latter.
    Valued within the class system and within middle class communities societal expectations, but no longer financially. Trades pay better than office work nowadays.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,764

    South Africa and South Korea really have done the dirty on Scotland.

    Benpointers guide to Scotland's travel prospects:

    Group D Australia v Paraguay has 'stitch-up' 'draw' written all over it, allowing both teams to qualify. Same in group F with Japan v Sweden, and of course group J with Algeria v Austria, who have previous in these things. But, those all involve third placed teams already above Scotland so don't really impact Scotland's chances.

    Of those who might overtake Scotland:

    Group E: I can't see either Ecuador beating Germany or Curaçao beating Ivory Coast, so nether of them are an issue.
    Group G: Belgium should beat NZ and Egypt v Iran could well be a draw so I'd expect Iran to push Scotland down to 8th place.
    Group H: Another possibility for a stitch-up in Spain v Uruguay where a draw lets Uruguay leap-frog Scotland but I suspect Spain will win that one.
    Group I: Likely that Senegal beat Iraq - Scotland now down to 9th place.
    Group K: Congo are going to beat Uzbekistan to push Scotland to 10th place
    Group L: Ghana beating Croatia be three goals would be handy but I can't see it happening.

    Summary: "We're doomed!"
    Scotland did really well to top their qualifying group but they were handed a terrible group in the finals. Morocco and Brazil rank in the top 6 in the world? Even then they had a shot at getting one more point, but blew it in the first couple of minutes against Morroco.

    For all of the joy for England fans against Croatia, I have a nasty feeling in my waters that we aren't getting beyond the quarters. A horrible exit on penalties awaits after a dull 0-0 grind like the Ghana game.
    Paradoxically, better teams are less likely to park the bus like Ghana. I'm still worried about the conditions, mind.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 21,274

    Nigelb said:

    .

    I see those stories about Burnham’s wife were utter bollocks.

    https://x.com/michaelsavage/status/2070036699242004684?s=61&t=c6bcp0cjChLfQN5Tc8A_6g

    But you'll note that the bollocks attracted far more attention than the fact check.
    Anatomy of a smear.

    Along those lines, someone should take a leaf out of LBJ's book, and ask Farage if he's stopped f***ing pigs.
    Bit harsh on his wife.
    He's separated from his wife and living with his new girlfriend, so it's harsh on his girlfriend. #pbpedantry
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 5,274
    edited 9:51AM
    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    I presume this means Labour are still a decent favourite? I had read on here that Burnham jumping more or less guaranteed a Reform mayor.

    Paul Waugh MP
    @paulwaugh
    ·
    31m
    It’s a straight fight between Labour and Reform in the GM mayoral election, with just 3 points in it.

    Labour 33.%
    Reform 30.1%
    Greens 12.5%
    Con 11.1%
    LibDem 7.6%

    Those who want to keep Reform out - remember, you get a second preference.

    https://x.com/MENnewsdesk/status/2070035512350695514?s=20

    Shortly after predicting Makerfield would be Labour’s Waterloo, one poster proclaimed that losing it was in fact a Farage tactical masterstroke as it allowed them to take the mayoralty. I was in awe of the prescience.
    We need @Leon_VotedForStarmer's prediction so that we can know what's not going to happen.
    This has been quite a long ban for the Bard of Belsize Park or wherever he lives
    Leon's ban may have been extended de-facto on account of the temporary embargo on any PB comment piling in on Ed Miliband. If so he may be back next week, as the embargo will be lifted once the heatwave is over and policies to combat climate change can once again be subject to ridicule.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 18,602
    Foxy said:

    I’ve never understood why people brag about their own social mobility.

    I’m the grandson of humble immigrants to the UK and look at me now.

    All thanks to my own hard work and supreme intelligence.

    Me too, and all via Comprehensive schools to boot.
    Me too!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,947

    MattW said:

    Sandpit said:

    Another refinery on fire. This one at Ufa, 1,500km from Ukraine, and hit in broad daylight.

    https://x.com/angelshalagina/status/2070063223856845112

    It’s like shooting fish in a barrel at this point. How do you send drones 1,500km during the day, and they still make it to their target?

    Someone somewhere has made a very detailed map of Russian air defence installations.
    The Russian Government? :smile:
    Ha! Could well be.

    That, someone with a fancy satellite, or just sending enough drones to work out which routes work and which routes don't.

    The problem for Russia is that it is just too big. Perhaps Ukraine could assist by making it a bit smaller?
    You can buy commercial satellite imagery with 60cm resolution, for anywhere*

    When you combine that with pattern recognition image searching, it’s just compute time to find any significant air defence systems.

    *various governments lean on the providers to try and get them to “hide” certain areas. With limited success.
    I assume radar emissions would also be detectable from low angles, although probably not on a commercial platform?
    It would be interesting to see that capabilities, that used to be on the zillion dollar NRO birds are now almost accidentally available on commercial sats.

    Because of Russian jamming etc, a number track “interesting” emissions, already.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 28,165

    South Africa and South Korea really have done the dirty on Scotland.

    Benpointers guide to Scotland's travel prospects:

    Group D Australia v Paraguay has 'stitch-up' 'draw' written all over it, allowing both teams to qualify. Same in group F with Japan v Sweden, and of course group J with Algeria v Austria, who have previous in these things. But, those all involve third placed teams already above Scotland so don't really impact Scotland's chances.

    Of those who might overtake Scotland:

    Group E: I can't see either Ecuador beating Germany or Curaçao beating Ivory Coast, so nether of them are an issue.
    Group G: Belgium should beat NZ and Egypt v Iran could well be a draw so I'd expect Iran to push Scotland down to 8th place.
    Group H: Another possibility for a stitch-up in Spain v Uruguay where a draw lets Uruguay leap-frog Scotland but I suspect Spain will win that one.
    Group I: Likely that Senegal beat Iraq - Scotland now down to 9th place.
    Group K: Congo are going to beat Uzbekistan to push Scotland to 10th place
    Group L: Ghana beating Croatia be three goals would be handy but I can't see it happening.

    Summary: "We're doomed!"
    Scotland did really well to top their qualifying group but they were handed a terrible group in the finals. Morocco and Brazil rank in the top 6 in the world? Even then they had a shot at getting one more point, but blew it in the first couple of minutes against Morroco.

    For all of the joy for England fans against Croatia, I have a nasty feeling in my waters that we aren't getting beyond the quarters. A horrible exit on penalties awaits after a dull 0-0 grind like the Ghana game.
    Paradoxically, better teams are less likely to park the bus like Ghana. I'm still worried about the conditions, mind.
    What could go possibly wrong playing Mexico at altitude in the Azteca?

    Mexico's record there:

    9 World Cup games - 7 clean sheets

    All competitive games ever held - 2 losses - not sure exactly how many games, in 2017 it was 40 wins 7 draws, 2 losses, since then they have only added wins and and draws.

    England will be rated clear favs.....
  • PeterCairnsPeterCairns Posts: 232

    Sandpit said:

    Another refinery on fire. This one at Ufa, 1,500km from Ukraine, and hit in broad daylight.

    https://x.com/angelshalagina/status/2070063223856845112

    It’s like shooting fish in a barrel at this point. How do you send drones 1,500km during the day, and they still make it to their target?

    Someone somewhere has made a very detailed map of Russian air defence installations.
    Too many targets over too large an area to cover.

    Our air defences wouldn’t get close to surviving an attack the size of those we regularly see in Ukraine and Russia.

    We have know this for decades but never done anything about it.

    Our only defence against the likes of Iklanders are the type 45 destroyer and the Navy wants those to protect their Carriers not our half dozen oil refineries!

    Peter.
  • PeterCairnsPeterCairns Posts: 232

    Sandpit said:

    Another refinery on fire. This one at Ufa, 1,500km from Ukraine, and hit in broad daylight.

    https://x.com/angelshalagina/status/2070063223856845112

    It’s like shooting fish in a barrel at this point. How do you send drones 1,500km during the day, and they still make it to their target?

    Someone somewhere has made a very detailed map of Russian air defence installations.
    Too many targets over too large an area to cover.

    Our air defences wouldn’t get close to surviving an attack the size of those we regularly see in Ukraine and Russia.

    We have know this for decades but never done anything about it.

    Our only defence against the likes of Iklanders are the type 45 destroyer and the Navy wants those to protect their Carriers not our half dozen oil refineries!

    Peter.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,564
    boulay said:

    Foxy said:

    I’ve never understood why people brag about their own social mobility.

    I’m the grandson of humble immigrants to the UK and look at me now.

    All thanks to my own hard work and supreme intelligence.

    Me too, and all via Comprehensive schools to boot.
    Whilst Peter Symonds is technically a comprehensive 6th form it’s a step above most schools public and state. It can be very picky about who gets in and is usually stacked with kids from private schools who go there for 6th form and the catchment is a wealthy part of the world without much deprivation and parents who don’t care about their kids. It’s every bit as good educationally as any of the top public and private schools.
    Key indicator about a school - do they play rugby?

    I used to love beating them at rugby.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,564

    Nigelb said:

    This scheme for guided ammunition seems quite clever (if it can be made to work, and also cheap enough to compete with low cost missiles).

    https://warsight.com/2026/06/22/eurosatory-2026-ng-guided-50-mm-concept/
    ..Assuming the physics at work has been understood correctly, it should operate roughly like so:

    When the projectile needs to turn, the rear collar becomes internally coupled to the main body of the projectile. This harnesses the air resistance acting on the collar’s strakes and transfers it to the main body of the projectile. This acts as a brake on the projectile spin rate, inducing a torquing motion opposite the direction of spin, transferred via the internal coupling, to slow down the projectile spin rate to the desired level. As this spin rate slows, the projectile reaches the desired level of gyroscopic stability, and becomes more susceptible to having its direction changed. At this point, the flap on the collar can be ‘locked’ into a stable position relative to the Earth, to induce an aerodynamic moment (turning force) on the projectile, acting as a rudder, and thereby allowing the projectile to be steered in the desired direction. This same operating principle can also be used to extend the projectile’s range.

    This is an extremely clever piece of engineering, and on paper looks to have a number of advantages over various other types of steering system. Unlike single-use thrusters, or jettisonable weights, it can be used to change the projectile’s direction multiple times over the course of its trajectory. Unlike fin-guided projectiles, it takes full advantage of the projectile’s spin stabilisation. Additionally, mounting the entire steering mechanism in the rear is more space- and weight-efficient than most pop-out fin designs, which must sacrifice more of their available volume to accommodate the fins. While the technology is still some ways from being fielded, it nonetheless looks like a highly promising approach.

    The doodle-bugs in WWII used to be programmed to switch the engine off over the right place.

    Didn't always work, of course. Stories of RAF pilots flying fighters underneath, just close enough to be able to turn them and sending them back whence they came.
    Was there not an awful lot of misinformation sent back to Nazi Germany by 'turned' spies about where the V1's were landing? So that the settings were over corrected?
  • PeterCairnsPeterCairns Posts: 232

    Nigelb said:

    This scheme for guided ammunition seems quite clever (if it can be made to work, and also cheap enough to compete with low cost missiles).

    https://warsight.com/2026/06/22/eurosatory-2026-ng-guided-50-mm-concept/
    ..Assuming the physics at work has been understood correctly, it should operate roughly like so:

    When the projectile needs to turn, the rear collar becomes internally coupled to the main body of the projectile. This harnesses the air resistance acting on the collar’s strakes and transfers it to the main body of the projectile. This acts as a brake on the projectile spin rate, inducing a torquing motion opposite the direction of spin, transferred via the internal coupling, to slow down the projectile spin rate to the desired level. As this spin rate slows, the projectile reaches the desired level of gyroscopic stability, and becomes more susceptible to having its direction changed. At this point, the flap on the collar can be ‘locked’ into a stable position relative to the Earth, to induce an aerodynamic moment (turning force) on the projectile, acting as a rudder, and thereby allowing the projectile to be steered in the desired direction. This same operating principle can also be used to extend the projectile’s range.

    This is an extremely clever piece of engineering, and on paper looks to have a number of advantages over various other types of steering system. Unlike single-use thrusters, or jettisonable weights, it can be used to change the projectile’s direction multiple times over the course of its trajectory. Unlike fin-guided projectiles, it takes full advantage of the projectile’s spin stabilisation. Additionally, mounting the entire steering mechanism in the rear is more space- and weight-efficient than most pop-out fin designs, which must sacrifice more of their available volume to accommodate the fins. While the technology is still some ways from being fielded, it nonetheless looks like a highly promising approach.

    The doodle-bugs in WWII used to be programmed to switch the engine off over the right place.

    Didn't always work, of course. Stories of RAF pilots flying fighters underneath, just close enough to be able to turn them and sending them back whence they came.
    Our you could just give snipers bullets that do this!

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=vX8Z2MDYX3g&ra=m

    Peter.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,989
    kinabalu said:

    Selebian said:

    “It turns out appointing a spiteful class warrior as education secretary was a disaster,” said Badenoch.

    This one was too much for Starmer. “She grew up in poverty,” he said. It was a suitable enough note for his time to end on. If anything has defined the Starmer era, it has been the Four Yorkshiremenisation of politics. “Her story,” he said, “is an incredible story of social mobility and success.”

    Starmer’s government is full of incredible stories of social mobility, of which they are all extremely proud. None of them seem to have noticed that they all grew up under Margaret Thatcher.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/kemi-badenoch-keir-starmer-cabinet-mpcbvn5z9

    They grew up under Margaret Thatcher; they grew up in poverty.

    Let's see if we can spot the connection there.
    The greater the inequality, the greater the (maximum) possibilities for social mobility though :wink:
    That's right. Like the PD of a battery. Or a rubber duck in the bath - the deeper submerged it is the more it flies (!) when released.
    The Queen had a rubber duck in her bath.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,911

    South Africa and South Korea really have done the dirty on Scotland.

    Benpointers guide to Scotland's travel prospects:

    Group D Australia v Paraguay has 'stitch-up' 'draw' written all over it, allowing both teams to qualify. Same in group F with Japan v Sweden, and of course group J with Algeria v Austria, who have previous in these things. But, those all involve third placed teams already above Scotland so don't really impact Scotland's chances.

    Of those who might overtake Scotland:

    Group E: I can't see either Ecuador beating Germany or Curaçao beating Ivory Coast, so nether of them are an issue.
    Group G: Belgium should beat NZ and Egypt v Iran could well be a draw so I'd expect Iran to push Scotland down to 8th place.
    Group H: Another possibility for a stitch-up in Spain v Uruguay where a draw lets Uruguay leap-frog Scotland but I suspect Spain will win that one.
    Group I: Likely that Senegal beat Iraq - Scotland now down to 9th place.
    Group K: Congo are going to beat Uzbekistan to push Scotland to 10th place
    Group L: Ghana beating Croatia be three goals would be handy but I can't see it happening.

    Summary: "We're doomed!"
    Scotland did really well to top their qualifying group but they were handed a terrible group in the finals. Morocco and Brazil rank in the top 6 in the world? Even then they had a shot at getting one more point, but blew it in the first couple of minutes against Morroco.

    For all of the joy for England fans against Croatia, I have a nasty feeling in my waters that we aren't getting beyond the quarters. A horrible exit on penalties awaits after a dull 0-0 grind like the Ghana game.
    Paradoxically, better teams are less likely to park the bus like Ghana. I'm still worried about the conditions, mind.
    What could go possibly wrong playing Mexico at altitude in the Azteca?

    Mexico's record there:

    9 World Cup games - 7 clean sheets

    All competitive games ever held - 2 losses - not sure exactly how many games, in 2017 it was 40 wins 7 draws, 2 losses, since then they have only added wins and and draws.

    England will be rated clear favs.....
    I don't think Andy Burnham will be holding a reception for a winning England World Cup team as one of his earliest tasks.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 37,523

    Nigelb said:

    This scheme for guided ammunition seems quite clever (if it can be made to work, and also cheap enough to compete with low cost missiles).

    https://warsight.com/2026/06/22/eurosatory-2026-ng-guided-50-mm-concept/
    ..Assuming the physics at work has been understood correctly, it should operate roughly like so:

    When the projectile needs to turn, the rear collar becomes internally coupled to the main body of the projectile. This harnesses the air resistance acting on the collar’s strakes and transfers it to the main body of the projectile. This acts as a brake on the projectile spin rate, inducing a torquing motion opposite the direction of spin, transferred via the internal coupling, to slow down the projectile spin rate to the desired level. As this spin rate slows, the projectile reaches the desired level of gyroscopic stability, and becomes more susceptible to having its direction changed. At this point, the flap on the collar can be ‘locked’ into a stable position relative to the Earth, to induce an aerodynamic moment (turning force) on the projectile, acting as a rudder, and thereby allowing the projectile to be steered in the desired direction. This same operating principle can also be used to extend the projectile’s range.

    This is an extremely clever piece of engineering, and on paper looks to have a number of advantages over various other types of steering system. Unlike single-use thrusters, or jettisonable weights, it can be used to change the projectile’s direction multiple times over the course of its trajectory. Unlike fin-guided projectiles, it takes full advantage of the projectile’s spin stabilisation. Additionally, mounting the entire steering mechanism in the rear is more space- and weight-efficient than most pop-out fin designs, which must sacrifice more of their available volume to accommodate the fins. While the technology is still some ways from being fielded, it nonetheless looks like a highly promising approach.

    The doodle-bugs in WWII used to be programmed to switch the engine off over the right place.

    Didn't always work, of course. Stories of RAF pilots flying fighters underneath, just close enough to be able to turn them and sending them back whence they came.
    Was there not an awful lot of misinformation sent back to Nazi Germany by 'turned' spies about where the V1's were landing? So that the settings were over corrected?
    I thought we managed to intercept the radio control so that we were able to divert them away from Central London. Did mean quite a lot of damage in Croydon, if I've understood correctly.

    We might, of course, both be right!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 129,124
    Heat hazard declared for the Austrian Grand Prix.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,564

    South Africa and South Korea really have done the dirty on Scotland.

    Benpointers guide to Scotland's travel prospects:

    Group D Australia v Paraguay has 'stitch-up' 'draw' written all over it, allowing both teams to qualify. Same in group F with Japan v Sweden, and of course group J with Algeria v Austria, who have previous in these things. But, those all involve third placed teams already above Scotland so don't really impact Scotland's chances.

    Of those who might overtake Scotland:

    Group E: I can't see either Ecuador beating Germany or Curaçao beating Ivory Coast, so nether of them are an issue.
    Group G: Belgium should beat NZ and Egypt v Iran could well be a draw so I'd expect Iran to push Scotland down to 8th place.
    Group H: Another possibility for a stitch-up in Spain v Uruguay where a draw lets Uruguay leap-frog Scotland but I suspect Spain will win that one.
    Group I: Likely that Senegal beat Iraq - Scotland now down to 9th place.
    Group K: Congo are going to beat Uzbekistan to push Scotland to 10th place
    Group L: Ghana beating Croatia be three goals would be handy but I can't see it happening.

    Summary: "We're doomed!"
    Scotland did really well to top their qualifying group but they were handed a terrible group in the finals. Morocco and Brazil rank in the top 6 in the world? Even then they had a shot at getting one more point, but blew it in the first couple of minutes against Morroco.

    For all of the joy for England fans against Croatia, I have a nasty feeling in my waters that we aren't getting beyond the quarters. A horrible exit on penalties awaits after a dull 0-0 grind like the Ghana game.
    Paradoxically, better teams are less likely to park the bus like Ghana. I'm still worried about the conditions, mind.
    What could go possibly wrong playing Mexico at altitude in the Azteca?

    Mexico's record there:

    9 World Cup games - 7 clean sheets

    All competitive games ever held - 2 losses - not sure exactly how many games, in 2017 it was 40 wins 7 draws, 2 losses, since then they have only added wins and and draws.

    England will be rated clear favs.....
    I don't think Andy Burnham will be holding a reception for a winning England World Cup team as one of his earliest tasks.
    More chance of the Womens T20 squad I think, but that's probably a low chance too.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 21,274

    Sandpit said:

    Another refinery on fire. This one at Ufa, 1,500km from Ukraine, and hit in broad daylight.

    https://x.com/angelshalagina/status/2070063223856845112

    It’s like shooting fish in a barrel at this point. How do you send drones 1,500km during the day, and they still make it to their target?

    Someone somewhere has made a very detailed map of Russian air defence installations.
    Too many targets over too large an area to cover.

    Our air defences wouldn’t get close to surviving an attack the size of those we regularly see in Ukraine and Russia.

    We have know this for decades but never done anything about it.

    Our only defence against the likes of Iklanders are the type 45 destroyer and the Navy wants those to protect their Carriers not our half dozen oil refineries!

    Peter.
    We have known this for decades, and we haven't been attacked in decades, so maybe that was money not spent well.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 13,545

    Nigelb said:

    This scheme for guided ammunition seems quite clever (if it can be made to work, and also cheap enough to compete with low cost missiles).

    https://warsight.com/2026/06/22/eurosatory-2026-ng-guided-50-mm-concept/
    ..Assuming the physics at work has been understood correctly, it should operate roughly like so:

    When the projectile needs to turn, the rear collar becomes internally coupled to the main body of the projectile. This harnesses the air resistance acting on the collar’s strakes and transfers it to the main body of the projectile. This acts as a brake on the projectile spin rate, inducing a torquing motion opposite the direction of spin, transferred via the internal coupling, to slow down the projectile spin rate to the desired level. As this spin rate slows, the projectile reaches the desired level of gyroscopic stability, and becomes more susceptible to having its direction changed. At this point, the flap on the collar can be ‘locked’ into a stable position relative to the Earth, to induce an aerodynamic moment (turning force) on the projectile, acting as a rudder, and thereby allowing the projectile to be steered in the desired direction. This same operating principle can also be used to extend the projectile’s range.

    This is an extremely clever piece of engineering, and on paper looks to have a number of advantages over various other types of steering system. Unlike single-use thrusters, or jettisonable weights, it can be used to change the projectile’s direction multiple times over the course of its trajectory. Unlike fin-guided projectiles, it takes full advantage of the projectile’s spin stabilisation. Additionally, mounting the entire steering mechanism in the rear is more space- and weight-efficient than most pop-out fin designs, which must sacrifice more of their available volume to accommodate the fins. While the technology is still some ways from being fielded, it nonetheless looks like a highly promising approach.

    The doodle-bugs in WWII used to be programmed to switch the engine off over the right place.

    Didn't always work, of course. Stories of RAF pilots flying fighters underneath, just close enough to be able to turn them and sending them back whence they came.
    Was there not an awful lot of misinformation sent back to Nazi Germany by 'turned' spies about where the V1's were landing? So that the settings were over corrected?
    I thought we managed to intercept the radio control so that we were able to divert them away from Central London. Did mean quite a lot of damage in Croydon, if I've understood correctly.

    We might, of course, both be right!
    V1’s weren’t radio controlled, and I don’t think V2’s were either. “Once they go up, who cares where they come down?”, said Werner von Braun (anecdotally)
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 37,523

    South Africa and South Korea really have done the dirty on Scotland.

    Benpointers guide to Scotland's travel prospects:

    Group D Australia v Paraguay has 'stitch-up' 'draw' written all over it, allowing both teams to qualify. Same in group F with Japan v Sweden, and of course group J with Algeria v Austria, who have previous in these things. But, those all involve third placed teams already above Scotland so don't really impact Scotland's chances.

    Of those who might overtake Scotland:

    Group E: I can't see either Ecuador beating Germany or Curaçao beating Ivory Coast, so nether of them are an issue.
    Group G: Belgium should beat NZ and Egypt v Iran could well be a draw so I'd expect Iran to push Scotland down to 8th place.
    Group H: Another possibility for a stitch-up in Spain v Uruguay where a draw lets Uruguay leap-frog Scotland but I suspect Spain will win that one.
    Group I: Likely that Senegal beat Iraq - Scotland now down to 9th place.
    Group K: Congo are going to beat Uzbekistan to push Scotland to 10th place
    Group L: Ghana beating Croatia be three goals would be handy but I can't see it happening.

    Summary: "We're doomed!"
    Scotland did really well to top their qualifying group but they were handed a terrible group in the finals. Morocco and Brazil rank in the top 6 in the world? Even then they had a shot at getting one more point, but blew it in the first couple of minutes against Morroco.

    For all of the joy for England fans against Croatia, I have a nasty feeling in my waters that we aren't getting beyond the quarters. A horrible exit on penalties awaits after a dull 0-0 grind like the Ghana game.
    Paradoxically, better teams are less likely to park the bus like Ghana. I'm still worried about the conditions, mind.
    What could go possibly wrong playing Mexico at altitude in the Azteca?

    Mexico's record there:

    9 World Cup games - 7 clean sheets

    All competitive games ever held - 2 losses - not sure exactly how many games, in 2017 it was 40 wins 7 draws, 2 losses, since then they have only added wins and and draws.

    England will be rated clear favs.....
    I don't think Andy Burnham will be holding a reception for a winning England World Cup team as one of his earliest tasks.
    More chance of the Womens T20 squad I think, but that's probably a low chance too.
    I think they can beat India, but I'm not so optimistic about Australia!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,468

    Nigelb said:

    This scheme for guided ammunition seems quite clever (if it can be made to work, and also cheap enough to compete with low cost missiles).

    https://warsight.com/2026/06/22/eurosatory-2026-ng-guided-50-mm-concept/
    ..Assuming the physics at work has been understood correctly, it should operate roughly like so:

    When the projectile needs to turn, the rear collar becomes internally coupled to the main body of the projectile. This harnesses the air resistance acting on the collar’s strakes and transfers it to the main body of the projectile. This acts as a brake on the projectile spin rate, inducing a torquing motion opposite the direction of spin, transferred via the internal coupling, to slow down the projectile spin rate to the desired level. As this spin rate slows, the projectile reaches the desired level of gyroscopic stability, and becomes more susceptible to having its direction changed. At this point, the flap on the collar can be ‘locked’ into a stable position relative to the Earth, to induce an aerodynamic moment (turning force) on the projectile, acting as a rudder, and thereby allowing the projectile to be steered in the desired direction. This same operating principle can also be used to extend the projectile’s range.

    This is an extremely clever piece of engineering, and on paper looks to have a number of advantages over various other types of steering system. Unlike single-use thrusters, or jettisonable weights, it can be used to change the projectile’s direction multiple times over the course of its trajectory. Unlike fin-guided projectiles, it takes full advantage of the projectile’s spin stabilisation. Additionally, mounting the entire steering mechanism in the rear is more space- and weight-efficient than most pop-out fin designs, which must sacrifice more of their available volume to accommodate the fins. While the technology is still some ways from being fielded, it nonetheless looks like a highly promising approach.

    The doodle-bugs in WWII used to be programmed to switch the engine off over the right place.

    Didn't always work, of course. Stories of RAF pilots flying fighters underneath, just close enough to be able to turn them and sending them back whence they came.
    Good morning

    Indeed - One stopped over our home in Greater Manchester as my father, mother, sister and I, as a babe in my mother's arms, sheltered under a steel table petrified

    It killed 6 of our neighbours
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,564
    DougSeal said:

    Nigelb said:

    This scheme for guided ammunition seems quite clever (if it can be made to work, and also cheap enough to compete with low cost missiles).

    https://warsight.com/2026/06/22/eurosatory-2026-ng-guided-50-mm-concept/
    ..Assuming the physics at work has been understood correctly, it should operate roughly like so:

    When the projectile needs to turn, the rear collar becomes internally coupled to the main body of the projectile. This harnesses the air resistance acting on the collar’s strakes and transfers it to the main body of the projectile. This acts as a brake on the projectile spin rate, inducing a torquing motion opposite the direction of spin, transferred via the internal coupling, to slow down the projectile spin rate to the desired level. As this spin rate slows, the projectile reaches the desired level of gyroscopic stability, and becomes more susceptible to having its direction changed. At this point, the flap on the collar can be ‘locked’ into a stable position relative to the Earth, to induce an aerodynamic moment (turning force) on the projectile, acting as a rudder, and thereby allowing the projectile to be steered in the desired direction. This same operating principle can also be used to extend the projectile’s range.

    This is an extremely clever piece of engineering, and on paper looks to have a number of advantages over various other types of steering system. Unlike single-use thrusters, or jettisonable weights, it can be used to change the projectile’s direction multiple times over the course of its trajectory. Unlike fin-guided projectiles, it takes full advantage of the projectile’s spin stabilisation. Additionally, mounting the entire steering mechanism in the rear is more space- and weight-efficient than most pop-out fin designs, which must sacrifice more of their available volume to accommodate the fins. While the technology is still some ways from being fielded, it nonetheless looks like a highly promising approach.

    The doodle-bugs in WWII used to be programmed to switch the engine off over the right place.

    Didn't always work, of course. Stories of RAF pilots flying fighters underneath, just close enough to be able to turn them and sending them back whence they came.
    Was there not an awful lot of misinformation sent back to Nazi Germany by 'turned' spies about where the V1's were landing? So that the settings were over corrected?
    I thought we managed to intercept the radio control so that we were able to divert them away from Central London. Did mean quite a lot of damage in Croydon, if I've understood correctly.

    We might, of course, both be right!
    V1’s weren’t radio controlled, and I don’t think V2’s were either. “Once they go up, who cares where they come down?”, said Werner von Braun (anecdotally)
    Presumably not an approach he continued with post war.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,599

    Sandpit said:

    Another refinery on fire. This one at Ufa, 1,500km from Ukraine, and hit in broad daylight.

    https://x.com/angelshalagina/status/2070063223856845112

    It’s like shooting fish in a barrel at this point. How do you send drones 1,500km during the day, and they still make it to their target?

    Someone somewhere has made a very detailed map of Russian air defence installations.
    And they are all on the way to Moscow anyway.

    I'm a bit surprised an attempt hasn't been made on the Yelabuga drone factory. Maybe the range limits the payload that can be carried, and drones are less effective against something that doesn't by nature burn, like an oil refinery
    The recent successful hits on drone and electronics factories have been done by missiles, rather than drones, because the missiles carry a larger payload (and also hit at high velocity, meaning they can explode from within the target, rather than outside).

    Ukraine are developing missiles with longer range and larger payloads. The Netherlands has just decided to buy a bunch of Ruta cruise missiles to donate to Ukraine too.

    Last night's attacks on Russia involved ~300 Ukrainian drones, and Russia air defences will have taken down more than 250. But if the remaining drones are on target they can still cause a large mess.

    Russia is concentrating air defences to defend Moscow and Putin's dacha at Valdai. The main effect of this is insufficient air defense to defend against Ukraine's mid-range campaign of air interdiction.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,599

    I presume this means Labour are still a decent favourite? I had read on here that Burnham jumping more or less guaranteed a Reform mayor.

    Paul Waugh MP
    @paulwaugh
    ·
    31m
    It’s a straight fight between Labour and Reform in the GM mayoral election, with just 3 points in it.

    Labour 33.%
    Reform 30.1%
    Greens 12.5%
    Con 11.1%
    LibDem 7.6%

    Those who want to keep Reform out - remember, you get a second preference.

    https://x.com/MENnewsdesk/status/2070035512350695514?s=20

    Labour shouldn't be able to lose with numbers like that.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,947

    Nigelb said:

    This scheme for guided ammunition seems quite clever (if it can be made to work, and also cheap enough to compete with low cost missiles).

    https://warsight.com/2026/06/22/eurosatory-2026-ng-guided-50-mm-concept/
    ..Assuming the physics at work has been understood correctly, it should operate roughly like so:

    When the projectile needs to turn, the rear collar becomes internally coupled to the main body of the projectile. This harnesses the air resistance acting on the collar’s strakes and transfers it to the main body of the projectile. This acts as a brake on the projectile spin rate, inducing a torquing motion opposite the direction of spin, transferred via the internal coupling, to slow down the projectile spin rate to the desired level. As this spin rate slows, the projectile reaches the desired level of gyroscopic stability, and becomes more susceptible to having its direction changed. At this point, the flap on the collar can be ‘locked’ into a stable position relative to the Earth, to induce an aerodynamic moment (turning force) on the projectile, acting as a rudder, and thereby allowing the projectile to be steered in the desired direction. This same operating principle can also be used to extend the projectile’s range.

    This is an extremely clever piece of engineering, and on paper looks to have a number of advantages over various other types of steering system. Unlike single-use thrusters, or jettisonable weights, it can be used to change the projectile’s direction multiple times over the course of its trajectory. Unlike fin-guided projectiles, it takes full advantage of the projectile’s spin stabilisation. Additionally, mounting the entire steering mechanism in the rear is more space- and weight-efficient than most pop-out fin designs, which must sacrifice more of their available volume to accommodate the fins. While the technology is still some ways from being fielded, it nonetheless looks like a highly promising approach.

    The doodle-bugs in WWII used to be programmed to switch the engine off over the right place.

    Didn't always work, of course. Stories of RAF pilots flying fighters underneath, just close enough to be able to turn them and sending them back whence they came.
    Was there not an awful lot of misinformation sent back to Nazi Germany by 'turned' spies about where the V1's were landing? So that the settings were over corrected?
    More with the V2, but yes
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 6,362
    edited 10:16AM

    South Africa and South Korea really have done the dirty on Scotland.

    Benpointers guide to Scotland's travel prospects:

    Group D Australia v Paraguay has 'stitch-up' 'draw' written all over it, allowing both teams to qualify. Same in group F with Japan v Sweden, and of course group J with Algeria v Austria, who have previous in these things. But, those all involve third placed teams already above Scotland so don't really impact Scotland's chances.

    Of those who might overtake Scotland:

    Group E: I can't see either Ecuador beating Germany or Curaçao beating Ivory Coast, so nether of them are an issue.
    Group G: Belgium should beat NZ and Egypt v Iran could well be a draw so I'd expect Iran to push Scotland down to 8th place.
    Group H: Another possibility for a stitch-up in Spain v Uruguay where a draw lets Uruguay leap-frog Scotland but I suspect Spain will win that one.
    Group I: Likely that Senegal beat Iraq - Scotland now down to 9th place.
    Group K: Congo are going to beat Uzbekistan to push Scotland to 10th place
    Group L: Ghana beating Croatia be three goals would be handy but I can't see it happening.

    Summary: "We're doomed!"
    South Africa really put a spanner in the progression, that was a (by my reckoning) 65% chance of someone finishing below Scotland that fell by the wayside. Scotland still need 4 groups to come good

    Group D : 75% chance of both Ivory Coast and Germany getting at least a draw.

    Group E: Paraguay are one goal away from being in Scotland's position, so I reckon they will be going for it on the break and Australia will respond in kind. Australia winning 2-0 to put Paraguay below Scotland is a chance - also contingent on Turkey not beating the USA. About a 25% chance of a Scotland friendly result.

    Group F: Japan need to beat Sweden by 4 goals to benefit Scotland, 2% chance.

    Group G: Broadly Scotland's benefit is served by Egypt beating Iran, around a 35% chance

    Group H: In an identical setup to Group G, Spain need to beat Uruguay for Scotland, around a 50% chance.

    Group I: Senegal failing to beat Iraq is probably a 30% chance

    Group J: This is the Algeria Austria one. Even with a suspicious eye. Austria beating Algeria by a couple is about a 30% chance.

    Group K: Congo failing to beat Uzbekistan is about a 20% chance.

    Group L: Yes, 3 goal Ghana win against Croatia not that likely (and England have also to avoid losing to Panama!). 5% chance at best all in.

    So, aggregating, on average 2.6 teams finish below Scotland, for a likely 9th place finish.

    Two beneficial results tonight would be really welcome.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 37,523

    Nigelb said:

    This scheme for guided ammunition seems quite clever (if it can be made to work, and also cheap enough to compete with low cost missiles).

    https://warsight.com/2026/06/22/eurosatory-2026-ng-guided-50-mm-concept/
    ..Assuming the physics at work has been understood correctly, it should operate roughly like so:

    When the projectile needs to turn, the rear collar becomes internally coupled to the main body of the projectile. This harnesses the air resistance acting on the collar’s strakes and transfers it to the main body of the projectile. This acts as a brake on the projectile spin rate, inducing a torquing motion opposite the direction of spin, transferred via the internal coupling, to slow down the projectile spin rate to the desired level. As this spin rate slows, the projectile reaches the desired level of gyroscopic stability, and becomes more susceptible to having its direction changed. At this point, the flap on the collar can be ‘locked’ into a stable position relative to the Earth, to induce an aerodynamic moment (turning force) on the projectile, acting as a rudder, and thereby allowing the projectile to be steered in the desired direction. This same operating principle can also be used to extend the projectile’s range.

    This is an extremely clever piece of engineering, and on paper looks to have a number of advantages over various other types of steering system. Unlike single-use thrusters, or jettisonable weights, it can be used to change the projectile’s direction multiple times over the course of its trajectory. Unlike fin-guided projectiles, it takes full advantage of the projectile’s spin stabilisation. Additionally, mounting the entire steering mechanism in the rear is more space- and weight-efficient than most pop-out fin designs, which must sacrifice more of their available volume to accommodate the fins. While the technology is still some ways from being fielded, it nonetheless looks like a highly promising approach.

    The doodle-bugs in WWII used to be programmed to switch the engine off over the right place.

    Didn't always work, of course. Stories of RAF pilots flying fighters underneath, just close enough to be able to turn them and sending them back whence they came.
    Good morning

    Indeed - One stopped over our home in Greater Manchester as my father, mother, sister and I, as a babe in my mother's arms, sheltered under a steel table petrified

    It killed 6 of our neighbours
    I suspect, because I'm an old man who tends to repeat his anecdotes, that I've mentioned the time in 1944 when one's engine stopped above, apparently, our school playground.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,947

    Sandpit said:

    Another refinery on fire. This one at Ufa, 1,500km from Ukraine, and hit in broad daylight.

    https://x.com/angelshalagina/status/2070063223856845112

    It’s like shooting fish in a barrel at this point. How do you send drones 1,500km during the day, and they still make it to their target?

    Someone somewhere has made a very detailed map of Russian air defence installations.
    And they are all on the way to Moscow anyway.

    I'm a bit surprised an attempt hasn't been made on the Yelabuga drone factory. Maybe the range limits the payload that can be carried, and drones are less effective against something that doesn't by nature burn, like an oil refinery
    The recent successful hits on drone and electronics factories have been done by missiles, rather than drones, because the missiles carry a larger payload (and also hit at high velocity, meaning they can explode from within the target, rather than outside).

    Ukraine are developing missiles with longer range and larger payloads. The Netherlands has just decided to buy a bunch of Ruta cruise missiles to donate to Ukraine too.

    Last night's attacks on Russia involved ~300 Ukrainian drones, and Russia air defences will have taken down more than 250. But if the remaining drones are on target they can still cause a large mess.

    Russia is concentrating air defences to defend Moscow and Putin's dacha at Valdai. The main effect of this is insufficient air defense to defend against Ukraine's mid-range campaign of air interdiction.
    A drone is just a short range, slow, really low payload missile.

    If you build a “drone” that can fly 2000km and avoid defences, congrats. You’ve just built a missile.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 29,065
    Jamelle Bouie on why Keir Starmer proves that triangulation is a dead end.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LNFic3cTD4E (13 mins)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,947
    DougSeal said:

    Nigelb said:

    This scheme for guided ammunition seems quite clever (if it can be made to work, and also cheap enough to compete with low cost missiles).

    https://warsight.com/2026/06/22/eurosatory-2026-ng-guided-50-mm-concept/
    ..Assuming the physics at work has been understood correctly, it should operate roughly like so:

    When the projectile needs to turn, the rear collar becomes internally coupled to the main body of the projectile. This harnesses the air resistance acting on the collar’s strakes and transfers it to the main body of the projectile. This acts as a brake on the projectile spin rate, inducing a torquing motion opposite the direction of spin, transferred via the internal coupling, to slow down the projectile spin rate to the desired level. As this spin rate slows, the projectile reaches the desired level of gyroscopic stability, and becomes more susceptible to having its direction changed. At this point, the flap on the collar can be ‘locked’ into a stable position relative to the Earth, to induce an aerodynamic moment (turning force) on the projectile, acting as a rudder, and thereby allowing the projectile to be steered in the desired direction. This same operating principle can also be used to extend the projectile’s range.

    This is an extremely clever piece of engineering, and on paper looks to have a number of advantages over various other types of steering system. Unlike single-use thrusters, or jettisonable weights, it can be used to change the projectile’s direction multiple times over the course of its trajectory. Unlike fin-guided projectiles, it takes full advantage of the projectile’s spin stabilisation. Additionally, mounting the entire steering mechanism in the rear is more space- and weight-efficient than most pop-out fin designs, which must sacrifice more of their available volume to accommodate the fins. While the technology is still some ways from being fielded, it nonetheless looks like a highly promising approach.

    The doodle-bugs in WWII used to be programmed to switch the engine off over the right place.

    Didn't always work, of course. Stories of RAF pilots flying fighters underneath, just close enough to be able to turn them and sending them back whence they came.
    Was there not an awful lot of misinformation sent back to Nazi Germany by 'turned' spies about where the V1's were landing? So that the settings were over corrected?
    I thought we managed to intercept the radio control so that we were able to divert them away from Central London. Did mean quite a lot of damage in Croydon, if I've understood correctly.

    We might, of course, both be right!
    V1’s weren’t radio controlled, and I don’t think V2’s were either. “Once they go up, who cares where they come down?”, said Werner von Braun (anecdotally)
    IIRC the Germans did some experiments with both tracking and guidance. But most were inertially guided.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,468

    I presume this means Labour are still a decent favourite? I had read on here that Burnham jumping more or less guaranteed a Reform mayor.

    Paul Waugh MP
    @paulwaugh
    ·
    31m
    It’s a straight fight between Labour and Reform in the GM mayoral election, with just 3 points in it.

    Labour 33.%
    Reform 30.1%
    Greens 12.5%
    Con 11.1%
    LibDem 7.6%

    Those who want to keep Reform out - remember, you get a second preference.

    https://x.com/MENnewsdesk/status/2070035512350695514?s=20

    Labour shouldn't be able to lose with numbers like that.
    I fully expect labour to win in another lost election for reform
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 8,176
    Pro_Rata said:

    South Africa and South Korea really have done the dirty on Scotland.

    Benpointers guide to Scotland's travel prospects:

    Group D Australia v Paraguay has 'stitch-up' 'draw' written all over it, allowing both teams to qualify. Same in group F with Japan v Sweden, and of course group J with Algeria v Austria, who have previous in these things. But, those all involve third placed teams already above Scotland so don't really impact Scotland's chances.

    Of those who might overtake Scotland:

    Group E: I can't see either Ecuador beating Germany or Curaçao beating Ivory Coast, so nether of them are an issue.
    Group G: Belgium should beat NZ and Egypt v Iran could well be a draw so I'd expect Iran to push Scotland down to 8th place.
    Group H: Another possibility for a stitch-up in Spain v Uruguay where a draw lets Uruguay leap-frog Scotland but I suspect Spain will win that one.
    Group I: Likely that Senegal beat Iraq - Scotland now down to 9th place.
    Group K: Congo are going to beat Uzbekistan to push Scotland to 10th place
    Group L: Ghana beating Croatia be three goals would be handy but I can't see it happening.

    Summary: "We're doomed!"
    South Africa really put a spanner in the progression, that was a (by my reckoning) 65% chance of someone finishing below Scotland that fell by the wayside. Scotland still need 4 groups to come good

    Group D : 75% chance of both Ivory Coast and Germany getting at least a draw.

    Group E: Paraguay are one goal away from being in Scotland's position, so I reckon they will be going for it on the break and Australia will respond in kind. Australia winning 2-0 to put Paraguay below Scotland is a chance - also contingent on Turkey not beating the USA. About a 25% chance of a Scotland friendly result.

    Group F: Japan need to beat Sweden by 4 goals to benefit Scotland, 2% chance.

    Group G: Broadly Scotland's benefit is served by Egypt beating Iran, around a 35% chance

    Group H: In an identical setup to Group G, Spain need to beat Uruguay for Scotland, around a 50% chance.

    Group I: Senegal failing to beat Iraq is probably a 30% chance

    Group J: This is the Algeria Austria one. Even with a suspicious eye. Austria beating Algeria by a couple is about a 30% chance.

    Group K: Congo failing to beat Uzbekistan is about a 20% chance.

    Group L: Yes, 3 goal Ghana win against Croatia not that likely (and England have also to avoid losing to Panama!). 5% chance at best all in.

    So, aggregating, on average 2.6 teams finish below Scotland, for a likely 9th place finish.

    Two beneficial results tonight would be really welcome.
    Scotland may be less embarrassed by finishing 9th and going home with what ifs than being embarrassed again. Our defence is poor and we can’t score goals. We rely on a midfield that is out of form. We have a manager who is stale. Ok, we were in the same group as Brazil and Morocco (who I think will be at least semi finalists), but we are just not good enough.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,599
    Sandpit said:

    Another refinery on fire. This one at Ufa, 1,500km from Ukraine, and hit in broad daylight.

    https://x.com/angelshalagina/status/2070063223856845112

    It’s like shooting fish in a barrel at this point. How do you send drones 1,500km during the day, and they still make it to their target?

    If, say, 200 drones are sent, and 95% of them are shot down, has air defence performed well or poorly? 10 drones have still hit your oil refinery to make a huge bonfire of it, but 95% is a high interception rate.

    A big moment in this war will be if/when Ukraine are able to wreck the production of Shahed drones and/or ballistic missiles by the Russians. It would represent a decisive shift (it's also why one of the biggest Western failures has been the inability to prevent electronic components used in the production of these drones and missiles from being exported to Russia.)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,777
    Quite astonishing how quickly we've gone from Burnham can't possibly find a seat he could win to Reform can't possibly win GM Mayor.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 8,176

    Nigelb said:

    This scheme for guided ammunition seems quite clever (if it can be made to work, and also cheap enough to compete with low cost missiles).

    https://warsight.com/2026/06/22/eurosatory-2026-ng-guided-50-mm-concept/
    ..Assuming the physics at work has been understood correctly, it should operate roughly like so:

    When the projectile needs to turn, the rear collar becomes internally coupled to the main body of the projectile. This harnesses the air resistance acting on the collar’s strakes and transfers it to the main body of the projectile. This acts as a brake on the projectile spin rate, inducing a torquing motion opposite the direction of spin, transferred via the internal coupling, to slow down the projectile spin rate to the desired level. As this spin rate slows, the projectile reaches the desired level of gyroscopic stability, and becomes more susceptible to having its direction changed. At this point, the flap on the collar can be ‘locked’ into a stable position relative to the Earth, to induce an aerodynamic moment (turning force) on the projectile, acting as a rudder, and thereby allowing the projectile to be steered in the desired direction. This same operating principle can also be used to extend the projectile’s range.

    This is an extremely clever piece of engineering, and on paper looks to have a number of advantages over various other types of steering system. Unlike single-use thrusters, or jettisonable weights, it can be used to change the projectile’s direction multiple times over the course of its trajectory. Unlike fin-guided projectiles, it takes full advantage of the projectile’s spin stabilisation. Additionally, mounting the entire steering mechanism in the rear is more space- and weight-efficient than most pop-out fin designs, which must sacrifice more of their available volume to accommodate the fins. While the technology is still some ways from being fielded, it nonetheless looks like a highly promising approach.

    The doodle-bugs in WWII used to be programmed to switch the engine off over the right place.

    Didn't always work, of course. Stories of RAF pilots flying fighters underneath, just close enough to be able to turn them and sending them back whence they came.
    Good morning

    Indeed - One stopped over our home in Greater Manchester as my father, mother, sister and I, as a babe in my mother's arms, sheltered under a steel table petrified

    It killed 6 of ouneighbours
    I suspect, because I'm an old man who tends to repeat his anecdotes, that I've mentioned the time in 1944 when one's engine stopped above, apparently, our school playground.
    Was your school near Big G’s childhood home?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 15,714

    Sandpit said:

    Another refinery on fire. This one at Ufa, 1,500km from Ukraine, and hit in broad daylight.

    https://x.com/angelshalagina/status/2070063223856845112

    It’s like shooting fish in a barrel at this point. How do you send drones 1,500km during the day, and they still make it to their target?

    If, say, 200 drones are sent, and 95% of them are shot down, has air defence performed well or poorly? 10 drones have still hit your oil refinery to make a huge bonfire of it, but 95% is a high interception rate.

    A big moment in this war will be if/when Ukraine are able to wreck the production of Shahed drones and/or ballistic missiles by the Russians. It would represent a decisive shift (it's also why one of the biggest Western failures has been the inability to prevent electronic components used in the production of these drones and missiles from being exported to Russia.)
    They can't or don't dare while China is enabling it. There was an article in the NYT about how Russia now has over 10,000 shell companies in Hong Kong procuring electronics in the Shenzen SEZ and the Pearl River delta.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,777
    I know I've mentioned it before but Gorton and Denton was Starmer's fatal act of stubbornness and stupidity.
    Had Burnham stood he'd have won easily and not given the Greens momentum for the locals.
    Burnham wouldn't be the fabled slayer of Reform in their backyard either.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,599
    dixiedean said:

    Quite astonishing how quickly we've gone from Burnham can't possibly find a seat he could win to Reform can't possibly win GM Mayor.

    Yes, it's a bit mental, but at least it shows we can accept and react to evidence, and the scale of Burnham's victory in Makerfield is good evidence.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 59,234

    Pro_Rata said:

    South Africa and South Korea really have done the dirty on Scotland.

    Benpointers guide to Scotland's travel prospects:

    Group D Australia v Paraguay has 'stitch-up' 'draw' written all over it, allowing both teams to qualify. Same in group F with Japan v Sweden, and of course group J with Algeria v Austria, who have previous in these things. But, those all involve third placed teams already above Scotland so don't really impact Scotland's chances.

    Of those who might overtake Scotland:

    Group E: I can't see either Ecuador beating Germany or Curaçao beating Ivory Coast, so nether of them are an issue.
    Group G: Belgium should beat NZ and Egypt v Iran could well be a draw so I'd expect Iran to push Scotland down to 8th place.
    Group H: Another possibility for a stitch-up in Spain v Uruguay where a draw lets Uruguay leap-frog Scotland but I suspect Spain will win that one.
    Group I: Likely that Senegal beat Iraq - Scotland now down to 9th place.
    Group K: Congo are going to beat Uzbekistan to push Scotland to 10th place
    Group L: Ghana beating Croatia be three goals would be handy but I can't see it happening.

    Summary: "We're doomed!"
    South Africa really put a spanner in the progression, that was a (by my reckoning) 65% chance of someone finishing below Scotland that fell by the wayside. Scotland still need 4 groups to come good

    Group D : 75% chance of both Ivory Coast and Germany getting at least a draw.

    Group E: Paraguay are one goal away from being in Scotland's position, so I reckon they will be going for it on the break and Australia will respond in kind. Australia winning 2-0 to put Paraguay below Scotland is a chance - also contingent on Turkey not beating the USA. About a 25% chance of a Scotland friendly result.

    Group F: Japan need to beat Sweden by 4 goals to benefit Scotland, 2% chance.

    Group G: Broadly Scotland's benefit is served by Egypt beating Iran, around a 35% chance

    Group H: In an identical setup to Group G, Spain need to beat Uruguay for Scotland, around a 50% chance.

    Group I: Senegal failing to beat Iraq is probably a 30% chance

    Group J: This is the Algeria Austria one. Even with a suspicious eye. Austria beating Algeria by a couple is about a 30% chance.

    Group K: Congo failing to beat Uzbekistan is about a 20% chance.

    Group L: Yes, 3 goal Ghana win against Croatia not that likely (and England have also to avoid losing to Panama!). 5% chance at best all in.

    So, aggregating, on average 2.6 teams finish below Scotland, for a likely 9th place finish.

    Two beneficial results tonight would be really welcome.
    Scotland may be less embarrassed by finishing 9th and going home with what ifs than being embarrassed again. Our defence is poor and we can’t score goals. We rely on a midfield that is out of form. We have a manager who is stale. Ok, we were in the same group as Brazil and Morocco (who I think will be at least semi finalists), but we are just not good enough.
    There was some talk last night of us getting Mexico or Germany or France if we made it through. None of those is likely to be anything other than a hammering.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 129,124
    Thoughts and prayers for the England and New Zealand players playing in this heat.

    Scorchio!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 59,234
    dixiedean said:

    I know I've mentioned it before but Gorton and Denton was Starmer's fatal act of stubbornness and stupidity.
    Had Burnham stood he'd have won easily and not given the Greens momentum for the locals.
    Burnham wouldn't be the fabled slayer of Reform in their backyard either.

    Yes, but Starmer would probably have lost his job even sooner.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,599
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Another refinery on fire. This one at Ufa, 1,500km from Ukraine, and hit in broad daylight.

    https://x.com/angelshalagina/status/2070063223856845112

    It’s like shooting fish in a barrel at this point. How do you send drones 1,500km during the day, and they still make it to their target?

    If, say, 200 drones are sent, and 95% of them are shot down, has air defence performed well or poorly? 10 drones have still hit your oil refinery to make a huge bonfire of it, but 95% is a high interception rate.

    A big moment in this war will be if/when Ukraine are able to wreck the production of Shahed drones and/or ballistic missiles by the Russians. It would represent a decisive shift (it's also why one of the biggest Western failures has been the inability to prevent electronic components used in the production of these drones and missiles from being exported to Russia.)
    They can't or don't dare while China is enabling it. There was an article in the NYT about how Russia now has over 10,000 shell companies in Hong Kong procuring electronics in the Shenzen SEZ and the Pearl River delta.
    I was talking more about the Western-manufactured components, rather than the Chinese parts.

    Maybe the Western parts aren't important, because Russia could simply substitute Chinese parts, but Russia seems to be going to some lengths to import Western components via the central Asian republics, etc.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,777

    dixiedean said:

    Quite astonishing how quickly we've gone from Burnham can't possibly find a seat he could win to Reform can't possibly win GM Mayor.

    Yes, it's a bit mental, but at least it shows we can accept and react to evidence, and the scale of Burnham's victory in Makerfield is good evidence.
    I'm not 100% convinced.
    I can't see Bev Craig getting the vote out in the same way.
    Depends if Reform choose another dud?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 37,523

    Nigelb said:

    This scheme for guided ammunition seems quite clever (if it can be made to work, and also cheap enough to compete with low cost missiles).

    https://warsight.com/2026/06/22/eurosatory-2026-ng-guided-50-mm-concept/
    ..Assuming the physics at work has been understood correctly, it should operate roughly like so:

    When the projectile needs to turn, the rear collar becomes internally coupled to the main body of the projectile. This harnesses the air resistance acting on the collar’s strakes and transfers it to the main body of the projectile. This acts as a brake on the projectile spin rate, inducing a torquing motion opposite the direction of spin, transferred via the internal coupling, to slow down the projectile spin rate to the desired level. As this spin rate slows, the projectile reaches the desired level of gyroscopic stability, and becomes more susceptible to having its direction changed. At this point, the flap on the collar can be ‘locked’ into a stable position relative to the Earth, to induce an aerodynamic moment (turning force) on the projectile, acting as a rudder, and thereby allowing the projectile to be steered in the desired direction. This same operating principle can also be used to extend the projectile’s range.

    This is an extremely clever piece of engineering, and on paper looks to have a number of advantages over various other types of steering system. Unlike single-use thrusters, or jettisonable weights, it can be used to change the projectile’s direction multiple times over the course of its trajectory. Unlike fin-guided projectiles, it takes full advantage of the projectile’s spin stabilisation. Additionally, mounting the entire steering mechanism in the rear is more space- and weight-efficient than most pop-out fin designs, which must sacrifice more of their available volume to accommodate the fins. While the technology is still some ways from being fielded, it nonetheless looks like a highly promising approach.

    The doodle-bugs in WWII used to be programmed to switch the engine off over the right place.

    Didn't always work, of course. Stories of RAF pilots flying fighters underneath, just close enough to be able to turn them and sending them back whence they came.
    Good morning

    Indeed - One stopped over our home in Greater Manchester as my father, mother, sister and I, as a babe in my mother's arms, sheltered under a steel table petrified

    It killed 6 of ouneighbours
    I suspect, because I'm an old man who tends to repeat his anecdotes, that I've mentioned the time in 1944 when one's engine stopped above, apparently, our school playground.
    Was your school near Big G’s childhood home?
    'Laugh'; no; Canvey Island. We had Nazi bombers overhead many nights 1941-44. Because one doesn't't recall much from one's pre-school years, and we were in South West Wales from mid 1940-late 1941 I've only vague memories of the earlier years.
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