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Meet the man who could ruin the Burnham premiership – politicalbetting.com

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  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,702
    Andy_JS said:

    Has anyone likened Starmer's downfall to a Shakesperian tragedy yet?

    Tis something, nothing;
    Twas mine, tis his, and has been slave to thousands
  • MelonBMelonB Posts: 17,446
    Andy_JS said:

    This is going to be a relatively short heatwave. By Friday/Saturday many places are going to be back to pretty much average temperatures, as far as I can see from the places I've looked at so far.

    Another example of how our expectations and norms have shifted in recent years.

    This week's UK max temperatures (bearing in mind we already had 30+ on Friday and Sunday):

    Monday: 32C
    Tuesday: 36C
    Wednesday: 36C
    Thursday: 36C
    Friday: 32C
    Saturday: 30C
    Sunday: 30C
    Monday: 31C
    Tuesday: 35C
    Wednesday: 32C
    Thursday: 31C
    Friday: 33C
    Saturday: 31C

    Then it breaks and temperatures head down to mid 20s.

    The late June long term average in London is 21C.

    Note this is using GFS because the hi-Res models like Arpege don't go out that far, so the maxes above will be understated for the next few days. Those models are giving 38-40C in parts of Wessex. Reality I think or baby a peak of 38-39C.

    The heatwave may not extend that long but even if the big stuff finishes on Friday that'll be 7 days of 30+. That used to be considered an extended heatwave.

    France is getting it even harder and longer though. Really nasty stuff.
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 2,470
    Andy_JS said:

    A coronation leading to Burnham as PM within days makes sense.

    A leadership election leading to Burnham (or someone else) becoming PM in September makes sense.

    What doesn't make sense is a coronation that doesn't lead to Burnham becoming PM until September.

    Plan C

    Wheres Harriet (Harman)...she can hold the for the summer! She's got the T-Shirt!
  • MelonBMelonB Posts: 17,446
    Photo for the day. The Anatolian plateau, famously where Kristin Hersh drank to somebody or other's health. From the dining car of the night express after a breakfast toastie



    In contrast to Britain it's fresh here. Max in Ankara today 27C
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,990
    Good morning, everyone.

    The 'feels like' is forecast to be 37-38C for the middle three days of the week here, it'll feel worse due to the joys of a small, south-facing office. Less than lovely. Also, a reason I tend to work earlier now so I can hopefully get something done on such days before mid-morning when it starts getting awful.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 23,091
    edited 5:58AM
    nico67 said:

    Starmer could resign today but that’s not official . It’s only official when he visits the King so he could un- resign !

    Just being a bit silly there !

    What seems ludicrous though would be him staying on until September . Given Burnham has been plotting since last year to become PM he’s had plenty of time to think about what he might do .

    Starmer should go quickly and allow Burnham the chance to pick his cabinet . Burnham should also delay the summer recess which will go down well with the public although not with MPs !

    Has he, though? There are surely many topics where, far from having thought about what to do, he doesn't even know that there's a question requiring thought. Not his fault- why should he know, he's not been a minister, let alone in Cabinet- for yonks. He's had none of the Need To Know briefings a leader of the opposition gets. He's not spoken to civil servants about how to make his plans happen.

    In short, he's greener than a Reflecting Pool full of algae. In part, that's why he can exude confidence.

    I don't want to worry anyone too much, but I'm reminded of Iraq. It's one thing to overthrow a hated leader, quite another to have a plan for what happens next.
  • eekeek Posts: 34,149
    MelonB said:

    Photo for the day. The Anatolian plateau, famously where Kristin Hersh drank to somebody or other's health. From the dining car of the night express after a breakfast toastie



    In contrast to Britain it's fresh here. Max in Ankara today 27C

    Ankara is on the mountains. During the May heatwave its max temperature was roughly 10c - I seem to remember that Reykjavík was warmer
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 21,245
    Taz said:

    For @Sandpit

    https://x.com/jamestate121/status/2068809990890983771

    Step 1: Remove filters in Reflecting Pool because Obama put them in.
    Step 2: Give your criminal neighbor who runs "Greenwater Services" a $20 million no-bid contract to paint the pool.
    Step 3: Fill the pool with water from the Potomac River, the phosphates from which cause algae blooms.
    Step 4: Freshly sealed pool and extreme heat result in a super scum event
    Step 5: Direct National Park Service to dump hydrogen peroxide into the pool which causes the paint to peel.
    Step 5: Deploy US National Guard to stop people from taking photos of the swamp as a perfect metaphor for the administration.
    Step 6: Blame someone else.

    There’s two ‘step 5’s
    Trump isn’t very good at maths. It’s like when he valued an apartment at 30,000 square feet in his tax return when it was only 11,000 square feet.
  • MelonBMelonB Posts: 17,446
    eek said:

    MelonB said:

    Photo for the day. The Anatolian plateau, famously where Kristin Hersh drank to somebody or other's health. From the dining car of the night express after a breakfast toastie



    In contrast to Britain it's fresh here. Max in Ankara today 27C

    Ankara is on the mountains. During the May heatwave its max temperature was roughly 10c - I seem to remember that Reykjavík was warmer
    Yes, and it gets higher further East. In a few days I'll be in Kars where the max forecast is 18-20C.

    Was 32C down in Izmir, which is relatively cool for katf June there.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 90,138
    Taz said:

    For @Sandpit

    https://x.com/jamestate121/status/2068809990890983771

    Step 1: Remove filters in Reflecting Pool because Obama put them in.
    Step 2: Give your criminal neighbor who runs "Greenwater Services" a $20 million no-bid contract to paint the pool.
    Step 3: Fill the pool with water from the Potomac River, the phosphates from which cause algae blooms.
    Step 4: Freshly sealed pool and extreme heat result in a super scum event
    Step 5: Direct National Park Service to dump hydrogen peroxide into the pool which causes the paint to peel.
    Step 5: Deploy US National Guard to stop people from taking photos of the swamp as a perfect metaphor for the administration.
    Step 6: Blame someone else.

    There’s two ‘step 5’s
    This is the Trump administration we're discussing.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 46,571
    MelonB said:

    Photo for the day. The Anatolian plateau, famously where Kristin Hersh drank to somebody or other's health. From the dining car of the night express after a breakfast toastie



    In contrast to Britain it's fresh here. Max in Ankara today 27C

    Think you mean England, fresh and lower than that in Scotland
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 59,172
    Quite pleasantly cool and overcast this morning for our walk outside Dundee. Don't think this heat bubble is getting anywhere near here.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 10,161

    I hope lectern guy has had a good nights rest. The world will be watching.

    Starmer?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,990

    For @Sandpit

    https://x.com/jamestate121/status/2068809990890983771

    Step 1: Remove filters in Reflecting Pool because Obama put them in.
    Step 2: Give your criminal neighbor who runs "Greenwater Services" a $20 million no-bid contract to paint the pool.
    Step 3: Fill the pool with water from the Potomac River, the phosphates from which cause algae blooms.
    Step 4: Freshly sealed pool and extreme heat result in a super scum event
    Step 5: Direct National Park Service to dump hydrogen peroxide into the pool which causes the paint to peel.
    Step 5: Deploy US National Guard to stop people from taking photos of the swamp as a perfect metaphor for the administration.
    Step 6: Blame someone else.

    Can’t count to six, typical intelligence level for US Democrats.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 46,571

    Good morning, everyone.

    The 'feels like' is forecast to be 37-38C for the middle three days of the week here, it'll feel worse due to the joys of a small, south-facing office. Less than lovely. Also, a reason I tend to work earlier now so I can hopefully get something done on such days before mid-morning when it starts getting awful.

    Only for England MD , will be fresh up here
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 64,584
    Here in the People's Republic of Santa Monica, we have highs of about 20 degrees all week,. Mind you, I'm off to Vegas on Tuesday, where highs are 42 degrees.

    Scorchio!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 90,138
    Sandpit said:

    For @Sandpit

    https://x.com/jamestate121/status/2068809990890983771

    Step 1: Remove filters in Reflecting Pool because Obama put them in.
    Step 2: Give your criminal neighbor who runs "Greenwater Services" a $20 million no-bid contract to paint the pool.
    Step 3: Fill the pool with water from the Potomac River, the phosphates from which cause algae blooms.
    Step 4: Freshly sealed pool and extreme heat result in a super scum event
    Step 5: Direct National Park Service to dump hydrogen peroxide into the pool which causes the paint to peel.
    Step 5: Deploy US National Guard to stop people from taking photos of the swamp as a perfect metaphor for the administration.
    Step 6: Blame someone else.

    Can’t count to six, typical intelligence level for US Democrats.
    There is a 24/7 camera that shows the reflecting pool. If someone went into the pool and made a 250 foot gash, it would have been seen.

    Trump is lying again. Everyone knows it, but the people at @TheJusticeDept are randomly going after people to soothe trump’s fragile ego.

    https://x.com/tedlieu/status/2068825248800317483

    Still in denial ?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 46,571
    Sandpit said:

    For @Sandpit

    https://x.com/jamestate121/status/2068809990890983771

    Step 1: Remove filters in Reflecting Pool because Obama put them in.
    Step 2: Give your criminal neighbor who runs "Greenwater Services" a $20 million no-bid contract to paint the pool.
    Step 3: Fill the pool with water from the Potomac River, the phosphates from which cause algae blooms.
    Step 4: Freshly sealed pool and extreme heat result in a super scum event
    Step 5: Direct National Park Service to dump hydrogen peroxide into the pool which causes the paint to peel.
    Step 5: Deploy US National Guard to stop people from taking photos of the swamp as a perfect metaphor for the administration.
    Step 6: Blame someone else.

    Can’t count to six, typical intelligence level for US Democrats.
    Your mancrush is taking a real pounding nowadays, even the biggest butt lickers are struggling to agree with him nowadays.
  • Just been out for a run in SW London. It’s already boiling.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 3,228
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    For @Sandpit

    https://x.com/jamestate121/status/2068809990890983771

    Step 1: Remove filters in Reflecting Pool because Obama put them in.
    Step 2: Give your criminal neighbor who runs "Greenwater Services" a $20 million no-bid contract to paint the pool.
    Step 3: Fill the pool with water from the Potomac River, the phosphates from which cause algae blooms.
    Step 4: Freshly sealed pool and extreme heat result in a super scum event
    Step 5: Direct National Park Service to dump hydrogen peroxide into the pool which causes the paint to peel.
    Step 5: Deploy US National Guard to stop people from taking photos of the swamp as a perfect metaphor for the administration.
    Step 6: Blame someone else.

    Can’t count to six, typical intelligence level for US Democrats.
    There is a 24/7 camera that shows the reflecting pool. If someone went into the pool and made a 250 foot gash, it would have been seen.

    Trump is lying again. Everyone knows it, but the people at @TheJusticeDept are randomly going after people to soothe trump’s fragile ego.

    https://x.com/tedlieu/status/2068825248800317483

    Still in denial ?
    Trump Denial Syndrome...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,990
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    For @Sandpit

    https://x.com/jamestate121/status/2068809990890983771

    Step 1: Remove filters in Reflecting Pool because Obama put them in.
    Step 2: Give your criminal neighbor who runs "Greenwater Services" a $20 million no-bid contract to paint the pool.
    Step 3: Fill the pool with water from the Potomac River, the phosphates from which cause algae blooms.
    Step 4: Freshly sealed pool and extreme heat result in a super scum event
    Step 5: Direct National Park Service to dump hydrogen peroxide into the pool which causes the paint to peel.
    Step 5: Deploy US National Guard to stop people from taking photos of the swamp as a perfect metaphor for the administration.
    Step 6: Blame someone else.

    Can’t count to six, typical intelligence level for US Democrats.
    There is a 24/7 camera that shows the reflecting pool. If someone went into the pool and made a 250 foot gash, it would have been seen.

    Trump is lying again. Everyone knows it, but the people at @TheJusticeDept are randomly going after people to soothe trump’s fragile ego.

    https://x.com/tedlieu/status/2068825248800317483

    Still in denial ?
    Ah yes, that famously truthful Member of Congress making his partisan points.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 129,033

    NEW THREAD

  • TazTaz Posts: 28,651

    Taz said:

    For @Sandpit

    https://x.com/jamestate121/status/2068809990890983771

    Step 1: Remove filters in Reflecting Pool because Obama put them in.
    Step 2: Give your criminal neighbor who runs "Greenwater Services" a $20 million no-bid contract to paint the pool.
    Step 3: Fill the pool with water from the Potomac River, the phosphates from which cause algae blooms.
    Step 4: Freshly sealed pool and extreme heat result in a super scum event
    Step 5: Direct National Park Service to dump hydrogen peroxide into the pool which causes the paint to peel.
    Step 5: Deploy US National Guard to stop people from taking photos of the swamp as a perfect metaphor for the administration.
    Step 6: Blame someone else.

    There’s two ‘step 5’s
    Trump isn’t very good at maths. It’s like when he valued an apartment at 30,000 square feet in his tax return when it was only 11,000 square feet.
    lol. It’s all Trumps fault 🤣🤣🤣
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 3,417
    MelonB said:

    eek said:

    MelonB said:

    Photo for the day. The Anatolian plateau, famously where Kristin Hersh drank to somebody or other's health. From the dining car of the night express after a breakfast toastie



    In contrast to Britain it's fresh here. Max in Ankara today 27C

    Ankara is on the mountains. During the May heatwave its max temperature was roughly 10c - I seem to remember that Reykjavík was warmer
    Yes, and it gets higher further East. In a few days I'll be in Kars where the max forecast is 18-20C.

    Was 32C down in Izmir, which is relatively cool for katf June there.
    Georgia? To sample some nice Georgian reds?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 48,055

    nico67 said:

    Starmer could resign today but that’s not official . It’s only official when he visits the King so he could un- resign !

    Just being a bit silly there !

    What seems ludicrous though would be him staying on until September . Given Burnham has been plotting since last year to become PM he’s had plenty of time to think about what he might do .

    Starmer should go quickly and allow Burnham the chance to pick his cabinet . Burnham should also delay the summer recess which will go down well with the public although not with MPs !

    Has he, though? There are surely many topics where, far from having thought about what to do, he doesn't even know that there's a question requiring thought. Not his fault- why should he know, he's not been a minister, let alone in Cabinet- for yonks. He's had none of the Need To Know briefings a leader of the opposition gets. He's not spoken to civil servants about how to make his plans happen.

    In short, he's greener than a Reflecting Pool full of algae. In part, that's why he can exude confidence.

    I don't want to worry anyone too much, but I'm reminded of Iraq. It's one thing to overthrow a hated leader, quite another to have a plan for what happens next.
    There’s always at least one aircraft carrier in dock. Andy could do a ‘mission accomplished’ photo call amid crowds of cheering tars (the latter might be difficult to arrange).
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 48,055
    malcolmg said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    The 'feels like' is forecast to be 37-38C for the middle three days of the week here, it'll feel worse due to the joys of a small, south-facing office. Less than lovely. Also, a reason I tend to work earlier now so I can hopefully get something done on such days before mid-morning when it starts getting awful.

    Only for England MD , will be fresh up here
    This is a British heat wave for British people!
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,445

    nico67 said:

    Starmer could resign today but that’s not official . It’s only official when he visits the King so he could un- resign !

    Just being a bit silly there !

    What seems ludicrous though would be him staying on until September . Given Burnham has been plotting since last year to become PM he’s had plenty of time to think about what he might do .

    Starmer should go quickly and allow Burnham the chance to pick his cabinet . Burnham should also delay the summer recess which will go down well with the public although not with MPs !

    Has he, though? There are surely many topics where, far from having thought about what to do, he doesn't even know that there's a question requiring thought. Not his fault- why should he know, he's not been a minister, let alone in Cabinet- for yonks. He's had none of the Need To Know briefings a leader of the opposition gets. He's not spoken to civil servants about how to make his plans happen.

    In short, he's greener than a Reflecting Pool full of algae. In part, that's why he can exude confidence.

    I don't want to worry anyone too much, but I'm reminded of Iraq. It's one thing to overthrow a hated leader, quite another to have a plan for what happens next.
    There’s always at least one aircraft carrier in dock. Andy could do a ‘mission accomplished’ photo call amid crowds of cheering tars (the latter might be difficult to arrange).
    He can have crowds of cheering Admirals instead, plenty of those.
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