Again, it was clear from Osborne's omnishambles budget that Cameron's chumocracy (about half of whom came from the same school) had no idea how their own voters lived. Small business people grabbing lunch from the nearest takeaway or volunteers refurbishing churches. And yes, the student loan scheme which is worse than a graduate tax because Osborne blocked anything with the word tax in its name.
The Israelis have announced four dead and five wounded following a Hezbollah drone strike on an Israeli tank. Hezbollah are starting to use fibre-optic drones, while the Israelis deploy Russian-style aerial bombardment of urban areas.
If the Israelis don't have any effective drone countermeasures they might be facing a bit of trouble soon.
The Israelis have announced four dead and five wounded following a Hezbollah drone strike on an Israeli tank. Hezbollah are starting to use fibre-optic drones, while the Israelis deploy Russian-style aerial bombardment of urban areas.
If the Israelis don't have any effective drone countermeasures they might be facing a bit of trouble soon.
Israel needs to work with the Ukrainians, rather than the Americans.
i) protest vote based on the specifics of that constituency and not generalisable to others ii) the emergence of an anti-Farage vote which went Kemi in ASouth but will go to others elsewhere.
The Israelis have announced four dead and five wounded following a Hezbollah drone strike on an Israeli tank. Hezbollah are starting to use fibre-optic drones, while the Israelis deploy Russian-style aerial bombardment of urban areas.
If the Israelis don't have any effective drone countermeasures they might be facing a bit of trouble soon.
Old Bengiyis pretty determined.
I see the Israeli revenge ratio is rapidly increasing, now 1000-1.
For every tear of an Israeli mother, a thousand Lebanese mothers must weep. All of Lebanon must burn!
With all due respect to the Americans, Israel must make it clear to the entire world that the blood of our sons and the security of our citizens are not forfeit. All of Lebanon must burn. Our supreme duty is to protect the citizens of Israel and the soldiers of the IDF, and this commitment takes precedence over every other consideration.
I told the Prime Minister, even in our private meetings: For every tear of an Israeli mother, a thousand Lebanese mothers must weep.
Enough with the ping-pong. In the Middle East, you don’t win with measured responses and restraint—you need to go berserk. To obliterate. To crush the terror.
The Israelis have announced four dead and five wounded following a Hezbollah drone strike on an Israeli tank. Hezbollah are starting to use fibre-optic drones, while the Israelis deploy Russian-style aerial bombardment of urban areas.
If the Israelis don't have any effective drone countermeasures they might be facing a bit of trouble soon.
Israel is starting to annoy the Americans with both the President and Vice-President having recently spoken against Israel's salt the earth strategy.
The trouble is, as often stated, that anyone, any lone extremist (who does not have to be in government) can collapse the peace by provoking or being provoked by the other side. Both value victory above peace, and until America can persuade them otherwise, a series of short-lived ceasefires is all we can expect.
The Israelis have announced four dead and five wounded following a Hezbollah drone strike on an Israeli tank. Hezbollah are starting to use fibre-optic drones, while the Israelis deploy Russian-style aerial bombardment of urban areas.
If the Israelis don't have any effective drone countermeasures they might be facing a bit of trouble soon.
Israel needs to work with the Ukrainians, rather than the Americans.
The Ukrainians would be delighted to have some Israeli help with anti-missile technology in exchange for Ukrainian help to Israel on drone warfare.
caroline wheeler @cazjwheeler · 52m Excl: Keir Starmer is ringing members of the Cabinet in a bid to shore up his position in the wake of Andy Burnham’s by-election victory.
The Israelis have announced four dead and five wounded following a Hezbollah drone strike on an Israeli tank. Hezbollah are starting to use fibre-optic drones, while the Israelis deploy Russian-style aerial bombardment of urban areas.
If the Israelis don't have any effective drone countermeasures they might be facing a bit of trouble soon.
Old Bengiyis pretty determined.
I see the Israeli revenge ratio is rapidly increasing, now 1000-1.
For every tear of an Israeli mother, a thousand Lebanese mothers must weep. All of Lebanon must burn!
With all due respect to the Americans, Israel must make it clear to the entire world that the blood of our sons and the security of our citizens are not forfeit. All of Lebanon must burn. Our supreme duty is to protect the citizens of Israel and the soldiers of the IDF, and this commitment takes precedence over every other consideration.
I told the Prime Minister, even in our private meetings: For every tear of an Israeli mother, a thousand Lebanese mothers must weep.
Enough with the ping-pong. In the Middle East, you don’t win with measured responses and restraint—you need to go berserk. To obliterate. To crush the terror.
caroline wheeler @cazjwheeler · 52m Excl: Keir Starmer is ringing members of the Cabinet in a bid to shore up his position in the wake of Andy Burnham’s by-election victory.
Perfect opportunity for them all to tell him that he's done for.
caroline wheeler @cazjwheeler · 52m Excl: Keir Starmer is ringing members of the Cabinet in a bid to shore up his position in the wake of Andy Burnham’s by-election victory.
Any markets on the next GM mayor yet? I have a view but nowhere to put it...
Yes, and be quick if you want to exploit the difference of opinion between those who think Labour is nailed on, and those who have priced up a 2-horse race with Reform. Green at 4/1-ish maybe based on the locals but their vote evaporated last night.
The Israelis have announced four dead and five wounded following a Hezbollah drone strike on an Israeli tank. Hezbollah are starting to use fibre-optic drones, while the Israelis deploy Russian-style aerial bombardment of urban areas.
If the Israelis don't have any effective drone countermeasures they might be facing a bit of trouble soon.
Old Bengiyis pretty determined.
I see the Israeli revenge ratio is rapidly increasing, now 1000-1.
For every tear of an Israeli mother, a thousand Lebanese mothers must weep. All of Lebanon must burn!
With all due respect to the Americans, Israel must make it clear to the entire world that the blood of our sons and the security of our citizens are not forfeit. All of Lebanon must burn. Our supreme duty is to protect the citizens of Israel and the soldiers of the IDF, and this commitment takes precedence over every other consideration.
I told the Prime Minister, even in our private meetings: For every tear of an Israeli mother, a thousand Lebanese mothers must weep.
Enough with the ping-pong. In the Middle East, you don’t win with measured responses and restraint—you need to go berserk. To obliterate. To crush the terror.
caroline wheeler @cazjwheeler · 52m Excl: Keir Starmer is ringing members of the Cabinet in a bid to shore up his position in the wake of Andy Burnham’s by-election victory.
"Of course, on a personal level, I fully support you. But my fear is that, if you allow for a contest, you will not win..."
Either that, or "mwah mwah mwah..." which translates as "I've just had some dental work done."
caroline wheeler @cazjwheeler · 52m Excl: Keir Starmer is ringing members of the Cabinet in a bid to shore up his position in the wake of Andy Burnham’s by-election victory.
Perfect opportunity for them all to tell him that he's done for.
Will they have the courage to do so?
Maybe they are checking the internet in case they are quoted having demanded a General Election when the Tories changed leaders as it would be undemocratic to just install a new government etc. They surely wouldn’t want to be hypocritical.
The Israelis have announced four dead and five wounded following a Hezbollah drone strike on an Israeli tank. Hezbollah are starting to use fibre-optic drones, while the Israelis deploy Russian-style aerial bombardment of urban areas.
If the Israelis don't have any effective drone countermeasures they might be facing a bit of trouble soon.
Israel is starting to annoy the Americans with both the President and Vice-President having recently spoken against Israel's salt the earth strategy.
The trouble is, as often stated, that anyone, any lone extremist (who does not have to be in government) can collapse the peace by provoking or being provoked by the other side. Both value victory above peace, and until America can persuade them otherwise, a series of short-lived ceasefires is all we can expect.
That's all true, but I guess my question was about the Israeli tolerance for military casualties.
If Hezbollah can crank up the volume of battlefield drone attacks then Israeli casualties might escalate quite quickly.
caroline wheeler @cazjwheeler · 52m Excl: Keir Starmer is ringing members of the Cabinet in a bid to shore up his position in the wake of Andy Burnham’s by-election victory.
"Of course, on a personal level, I fully support you. But my fear is that, if you allow for a contest, you will not win..."
Either that, or "mwah mwah mwah..." which translates as "I've just had some dental work done."
Just compare that cabinet with absolute heavyweights compared to the lightweights now.
The Israelis have announced four dead and five wounded following a Hezbollah drone strike on an Israeli tank. Hezbollah are starting to use fibre-optic drones, while the Israelis deploy Russian-style aerial bombardment of urban areas.
If the Israelis don't have any effective drone countermeasures they might be facing a bit of trouble soon.
Israel is starting to annoy the Americans with both the President and Vice-President having recently spoken against Israel's salt the earth strategy.
The trouble is, as often stated, that anyone, any lone extremist (who does not have to be in government) can collapse the peace by provoking or being provoked by the other side. Both value victory above peace, and until America can persuade them otherwise, a series of short-lived ceasefires is all we can expect.
That's all true, but I guess my question was about the Israeli tolerance for military casualties.
If Hezbollah can crank up the volume of battlefield drone attacks then Israeli casualties might escalate quite quickly.
I sincerely doubt that scenario will lead to peace rather than vengeful escalation. But like everyone else who has yearned for Middle East peace in the last 60 years or more, I've no idea how to find it or even where to look.
The Israelis have announced four dead and five wounded following a Hezbollah drone strike on an Israeli tank. Hezbollah are starting to use fibre-optic drones, while the Israelis deploy Russian-style aerial bombardment of urban areas.
If the Israelis don't have any effective drone countermeasures they might be facing a bit of trouble soon.
Israel is starting to annoy the Americans with both the President and Vice-President having recently spoken against Israel's salt the earth strategy.
The trouble is, as often stated, that anyone, any lone extremist (who does not have to be in government) can collapse the peace by provoking or being provoked by the other side. Both value victory above peace, and until America can persuade them otherwise, a series of short-lived ceasefires is all we can expect.
That's all true, but I guess my question was about the Israeli tolerance for military casualties.
If Hezbollah can crank up the volume of battlefield drone attacks then Israeli casualties might escalate quite quickly.
I sincerely doubt that scenario will lead to peace rather than vengeful escalation. But like everyone else who has yearned for Middle East peace in the last 60 years or more, I've no idea how to find it or even where to look.
I mentioned yesterday that saw some MAGA lot saying Trump should attack Israel if they continue to disrespect Trump's Iran deal.
FPT. Kemi Badenoch absolutely nails it, politically pitch perfect...
Kemi Badenoch@KemiBadenoch This is a significant result, and I want to start by congratulating @DLumsden_MSP on becoming the new Member of Parliament for Aberdeen South and the newest Conservative MP!
Makerfield was about one man’s job.
Aberdeen South was about thousands of jobs in oil and gas across our country and the future of an entire city.
Yesterday, the people of Aberdeen sent a message on behalf of the whole country. Energy security is national security. They know it is common sense to use our own oil and gas rather than importing it from overseas. They know it is madness to make ourselves poorer, weaker and more dependent at a time when even the government’s own intelligence says we are under threat. The first duty of any government is to keep its people safe. The Conservative Party will always put Britain’s security first.
What makes this result particularly significant is that many people who voted Conservative today have never voted Conservative before. I want to thank every one of them.
Many will have voted for us because they care deeply about Aberdeen and its future. Many will have voted for us because they are sick of the SNP’s shenanigans. Others because they are worried about what Labour’s policies mean for their jobs and livelihoods. Many voted for us because they wanted a strong local champion.
Douglas is that champion. He has lived in Aberdeen all his life. He spent two decades working in the oil and gas industry. He knows this city, he knows its people, and throughout this campaign he brought energy, optimism and a genuine belief in Aberdeen’s future. Wherever he went, he had a smile on his face and a positive message about what this great city can achieve.
The Conservative Party is working to earn the trust of the country again. I am grateful and humbled that Aberdeen looked at the choice before them and decided that the Conservative Party was the party that would fight for families, workers and business.
Thank you, Aberdeen. I will never stop fighting for you. Douglas will never stop fighting for you.
caroline wheeler @cazjwheeler · 52m Excl: Keir Starmer is ringing members of the Cabinet in a bid to shore up his position in the wake of Andy Burnham’s by-election victory.
Perfect opportunity for them all to tell him that he's done for.
caroline wheeler @cazjwheeler · 52m Excl: Keir Starmer is ringing members of the Cabinet in a bid to shore up his position in the wake of Andy Burnham’s by-election victory.
"Of course, on a personal level, I fully support you. But my fear is that, if you allow for a contest, you will not win..."
Either that, or "mwah mwah mwah..." which translates as "I've just had some dental work done."
Just compare that cabinet with absolute heavyweights compared to the lightweights now.
True, though the ShadCab comparison is surely worse. It's going to take a while yet for the political forest to grow back after the fires of Brexit, Corbyn and Johnson.
The Israelis have announced four dead and five wounded following a Hezbollah drone strike on an Israeli tank. Hezbollah are starting to use fibre-optic drones, while the Israelis deploy Russian-style aerial bombardment of urban areas.
If the Israelis don't have any effective drone countermeasures they might be facing a bit of trouble soon.
Israel is starting to annoy the Americans with both the President and Vice-President having recently spoken against Israel's salt the earth strategy.
The trouble is, as often stated, that anyone, any lone extremist (who does not have to be in government) can collapse the peace by provoking or being provoked by the other side. Both value victory above peace, and until America can persuade them otherwise, a series of short-lived ceasefires is all we can expect.
That's all true, but I guess my question was about the Israeli tolerance for military casualties.
If Hezbollah can crank up the volume of battlefield drone attacks then Israeli casualties might escalate quite quickly.
Israel's "salt the earth" policy actually uses white phosphorous to destroy agriculture in southern Lebanon.
The Israelis have announced four dead and five wounded following a Hezbollah drone strike on an Israeli tank. Hezbollah are starting to use fibre-optic drones, while the Israelis deploy Russian-style aerial bombardment of urban areas.
If the Israelis don't have any effective drone countermeasures they might be facing a bit of trouble soon.
Israel is starting to annoy the Americans with both the President and Vice-President having recently spoken against Israel's salt the earth strategy.
The trouble is, as often stated, that anyone, any lone extremist (who does not have to be in government) can collapse the peace by provoking or being provoked by the other side. Both value victory above peace, and until America can persuade them otherwise, a series of short-lived ceasefires is all we can expect.
That's all true, but I guess my question was about the Israeli tolerance for military casualties.
If Hezbollah can crank up the volume of battlefield drone attacks then Israeli casualties might escalate quite quickly.
I sincerely doubt that scenario will lead to peace rather than vengeful escalation. But like everyone else who has yearned for Middle East peace in the last 60 years or more, I've no idea how to find it or even where to look.
I mentioned yesterday that saw some MAGA lot saying Trump should attack Israel if they continue to disrespect Trump's Iran deal.
Not even Donald Trump is so far gone as to take MAGA advice.
The Israelis have announced four dead and five wounded following a Hezbollah drone strike on an Israeli tank. Hezbollah are starting to use fibre-optic drones, while the Israelis deploy Russian-style aerial bombardment of urban areas.
If the Israelis don't have any effective drone countermeasures they might be facing a bit of trouble soon.
Israel is starting to annoy the Americans with both the President and Vice-President having recently spoken against Israel's salt the earth strategy.
The trouble is, as often stated, that anyone, any lone extremist (who does not have to be in government) can collapse the peace by provoking or being provoked by the other side. Both value victory above peace, and until America can persuade them otherwise, a series of short-lived ceasefires is all we can expect.
t
Did HEZBOLLAH attack
Or was it friendly fire and all made up.
You can't trust that cnut as far as you can throw him
caroline wheeler @cazjwheeler · 52m Excl: Keir Starmer is ringing members of the Cabinet in a bid to shore up his position in the wake of Andy Burnham’s by-election victory.
FPT. Kemi Badenoch absolutely nails it, politically pitch perfect...
Kemi Badenoch@KemiBadenoch This is a significant result, and I want to start by congratulating @DLumsden_MSP on becoming the new Member of Parliament for Aberdeen South and the newest Conservative MP!
Makerfield was about one man’s job.
Aberdeen South was about thousands of jobs in oil and gas across our country and the future of an entire city.
Yesterday, the people of Aberdeen sent a message on behalf of the whole country. Energy security is national security. They know it is common sense to use our own oil and gas rather than importing it from overseas. They know it is madness to make ourselves poorer, weaker and more dependent at a time when even the government’s own intelligence says we are under threat. The first duty of any government is to keep its people safe. The Conservative Party will always put Britain’s security first.
What makes this result particularly significant is that many people who voted Conservative today have never voted Conservative before. I want to thank every one of them.
Many will have voted for us because they care deeply about Aberdeen and its future. Many will have voted for us because they are sick of the SNP’s shenanigans. Others because they are worried about what Labour’s policies mean for their jobs and livelihoods. Many voted for us because they wanted a strong local champion.
Douglas is that champion. He has lived in Aberdeen all his life. He spent two decades working in the oil and gas industry. He knows this city, he knows its people, and throughout this campaign he brought energy, optimism and a genuine belief in Aberdeen’s future. Wherever he went, he had a smile on his face and a positive message about what this great city can achieve.
The Conservative Party is working to earn the trust of the country again. I am grateful and humbled that Aberdeen looked at the choice before them and decided that the Conservative Party was the party that would fight for families, workers and business.
Thank you, Aberdeen. I will never stop fighting for you. Douglas will never stop fighting for you.
Starmers won’t fight a leadership challenge. It’s pointless to spend two months to then suffer the indignity of losing to Burnham .
And a leadership campaign held during the Manchester mayoralty campaign seems ridiculous and could hand that to Reform .
Problem is someone needs to sit SKS down in a room and tell him his time has finished
How many MP's has Burnham added to the PLP - zero. In fact if Labour fail to hold Manchester his ego will have cost the party. And that's against someone that won a massive landslide. If Burnham becomes PM, I'll never vote Labour again.
On climate, the previous thread (Jokingly) reckons a Venus scenario is possible.
Taking global reserves of 1.77 Tn barrels of oil, 200 Tn cubic metres of gas, 1 Tn tonnes of coal if you burnt all of it it would yield 3.7 Tn tonnes of CO2 (Oil 0.8, Gas 0.4, Coal 2.5).
@ 44% absorption corresponds to ~ 260 ppm additional CO2 (3364 Bn tonnes in atmosphere = 430 ppm) which gets us to about 690 ppm by 2126. So a way away from the 998000 ppm of Venus
Historically 690 ppm is fine for the earth tbh, & everyone is using solar at that point.
The problem is solved because we've run out of fossil fuels.
It might fine for the Earth, but at 690 ppm it'll be warm enough to melt virtually all the ice at the poles, raising the sea level by around 60 m. So not so great for coastal settlements and low-lying plains like the ones where we grow most of our food. We'll just have to manage our population down and make Birmingham our new capital city.
Action on climate change is not needed to save the Earth. The Earth will be fine. It is needed to save human civilisation on Earth. It is all about protecting our economic wellbeing and our way of life for the long term. I think it has been missold as a mission to protect polar bears or whatever. It is not an act of altruism. It is hard nosed self interest. It is all about maybe taking a small economic hit now so that our grandchildren inherit a planet they can live on. You'd have to be either incredibly short-sighted or just not understand the nature of the trade-offs involved to oppose it, IMHO.
Hard to disagree with any of this.
BUT. Its a nonsense to carry on using fossil fuels from elsewhere and not our 'own' for reasons.
We know no king but the King in the North, whose name is Burnham.
I am old enough to remember when Burnham was a ridiculous figure of fun who had 'blown it' and been done up like a kipper by masterful statesman SKS at the Labour Party conference.
It's interesting reading some of the reactions from the mostly male PB commentators about Aberdeen south and above all Kemi Badenoch. There is much to criticize in the Tory party but I feel that some on the left remain affronted that the Tories have another woman in charge and moreover, a black woman. I think it gets to them, as the long wait continues in the Labour party for anything remotely similar. Sure she's made errors, but she works and last night she won. Give her and the party a break!
Typical right wing racist trope.
Look in the mirror, go to any Conservative Club, grovelling racism
The left don't attack her on colour on gender on ethnicity they attack her as she's arrogant, argumentative intellectually challenged and useless.
I hope all the Kemi Badenoch doubters on here have just watched her speaking live in Aberdeen South and absolutely nailing it when it comes to what matters. And most importantly she again was making the clear point that while all of the focus has been on one mans future job in the Makerfield by-election the campaign run in Aberdeen South by the Conservatives was all about focussing on thousands of jobs in the North East of Scotland.
Starmers won’t fight a leadership challenge. It’s pointless to spend two months to then suffer the indignity of losing to Burnham .
And a leadership campaign held during the Manchester mayoralty campaign seems ridiculous and could hand that to Reform .
Problem is someone needs to sit SKS down in a room and tell him his time has finished
Word on the street is the timetable went something like:-
Morgan McSweeney sacked. SKS accepts he needs to go after speaking to Wes and Ed. SKS talks to McSweeney who says to fight on.
Of course, this paints McSweeney as SKS's Peter Mandelson, the sacked aide who never quite leaves.
ETA Peter Mandelson was never SKS's Peter Mandelson. By all accounts, they did not know each other or like each other. That's one reason SKS hit the roof over Mandygate – brought down by a gambit and man he'd not wanted in the first place.
From the previous thread header: "Labour’s former deputy leader Harriet Harman say the party’s MPs should now decide the leadership - with no say for the party members - in order to preserve the ‘stability of government’ "
No. Once again Harman gets it wrong. It must be done by the book, and Burnham will actually get a boost by being seen to be responsible for dragging Starmer kicking and screaming away from No 10. Those who voted for Burnham yesterday weren't voting for more of the same, anything but.
Burnham must be acutely aware that Harriet Harman's actions led to the demise of his leadership campaign in 2015, after she overstepped her brief as acting temporary leader by trying to force through policy to the agenda of the right of the party and gave him the dilemma of whether or not to resign from the Shadow Cabinet. He made the wrong choice to stay in and the left of the party turned against him, paving the way for Corbyn.
Harman is the last person who should be offering him advice on this.
So when 11 years later Harriet Harman is advising a particular course of action, Burnham's first recourse should be to look to follow the exact opposite course. Give Starmer the weekend to announce his planned departure, in the knowledge that on Monday Burnham will regardless announce that he is standing for the leadership with the support of way over the required 81 MPs. Very likely a simple Burnham v Starmer contest according to party rules, because Streeting can't I think muster 81 supporters now that Burnham is a dead cert.
Can he launch a leadership bid Monday? Technically he isn't an MP until swearing in. Or am I wrong?
Streeting could, though, and Burnham could announce even if his formal entry would be delayed a bit.
If Streeting had 81 names we'd already have a contest. He'll have considerably fewer now. He'll need loans.
Streeting's path to power is somewhat rickety to say the least.
Here's a scenario for him:
Streeting's pitch to Burnham's support could be "You don't want Andy wielding the dagger, lend your vote to me". Someone gets in Keir's ear "Do not put yourself through the humiliation of a contest which Burnham is going to beat you handily in" and he resigns
Nominations count: Streeting 85 Burnham 80
Streeting becomes PM.
Streeting is not going to become PM, and I would guess he knows that. The point is rather the tactical manoeuvring to get Burnham into No10 sooner rather than later, and Streeting a seat in his cabinet, surely ?
My friend @PeterKellner1 is the only polling expert I read who got remotely close to the actual result in Makerfield. It was so far away from what the polling organisations were showing that there's clearly an inquest to be had
From the previous thread header: "Labour’s former deputy leader Harriet Harman say the party’s MPs should now decide the leadership - with no say for the party members - in order to preserve the ‘stability of government’ "
No. Once again Harman gets it wrong. It must be done by the book, and Burnham will actually get a boost by being seen to be responsible for dragging Starmer kicking and screaming away from No 10. Those who voted for Burnham yesterday weren't voting for more of the same, anything but.
Burnham must be acutely aware that Harriet Harman's actions led to the demise of his leadership campaign in 2015, after she overstepped her brief as acting temporary leader by trying to force through policy to the agenda of the right of the party and gave him the dilemma of whether or not to resign from the Shadow Cabinet. He made the wrong choice to stay in and the left of the party turned against him, paving the way for Corbyn.
Harman is the last person who should be offering him advice on this.
So when 11 years later Harriet Harman is advising a particular course of action, Burnham's first recourse should be to look to follow the exact opposite course. Give Starmer the weekend to announce his planned departure, in the knowledge that on Monday Burnham will regardless announce that he is standing for the leadership with the support of way over the required 81 MPs. Very likely a simple Burnham v Starmer contest according to party rules, because Streeting can't I think muster 81 supporters now that Burnham is a dead cert.
Can he launch a leadership bid Monday? Technically he isn't an MP until swearing in. Or am I wrong?
Streeting could, though, and Burnham could announce even if his formal entry would be delayed a bit.
If Streeting had 81 names we'd already have a contest. He'll have considerably fewer now. He'll need loans.
Streeting's path to power is somewhat rickety to say the least.
Here's a scenario for him:
Streeting's pitch to Burnham's support could be "You don't want Andy wielding the dagger, lend your vote to me". Someone gets in Keir's ear "Do not put yourself through the humiliation of a contest which Burnham is going to beat you handily in" and he resigns
Nominations count: Streeting 85 Burnham 80
Streeting becomes PM.
Streeting is not going to become PM, and I would guess he knows that. The point is rather the tactical manoeuvring to get Burnham into No10 sooner rather than later, and Streeting a seat in his cabinet, surely ?
Streeting will be in Burnham's Cabinet whatever happens. The risk is to Wes's backers not Wes himself.
caroline wheeler @cazjwheeler · 52m Excl: Keir Starmer is ringing members of the Cabinet in a bid to shore up his position in the wake of Andy Burnham’s by-election victory.
caroline wheeler @cazjwheeler · 52m Excl: Keir Starmer is ringing members of the Cabinet in a bid to shore up his position in the wake of Andy Burnham’s by-election victory.
The Israelis have announced four dead and five wounded following a Hezbollah drone strike on an Israeli tank. Hezbollah are starting to use fibre-optic drones, while the Israelis deploy Russian-style aerial bombardment of urban areas.
If the Israelis don't have any effective drone countermeasures they might be facing a bit of trouble soon.
Israel is starting to annoy the Americans with both the President and Vice-President having recently spoken against Israel's salt the earth strategy.
The trouble is, as often stated, that anyone, any lone extremist (who does not have to be in government) can collapse the peace by provoking or being provoked by the other side. Both value victory above peace, and until America can persuade them otherwise, a series of short-lived ceasefires is all we can expect.
That's all true, but I guess my question was about the Israeli tolerance for military casualties.
If Hezbollah can crank up the volume of battlefield drone attacks then Israeli casualties might escalate quite quickly.
I sincerely doubt that scenario will lead to peace rather than vengeful escalation. But like everyone else who has yearned for Middle East peace in the last 60 years or more, I've no idea how to find it or even where to look.
I mentioned yesterday that saw some MAGA lot saying Trump should attack Israel if they continue to disrespect Trump's Iran deal.
It wouldn't take even that. Israel would be done for if any US President just ceased to regard Israel as an ally, because without copious US hardware their overwhelming military advantage would quickly evaporate and they would have to husband what military resources they still had access to rather than fritter them away attacking civilian populations.
With about 80% of Democrats now holding unfavourable views of Israel, that scenario isn't so implausible anymore. Netanyahu would be well advised to change course, but political considerations in Israel make that difficult for him.
Not many constituencies in England & Wales are quite so directly impacted.
I think you'll find we're all very much affected by the loony tunes energy strategy. They are just at the particularly sharp end.
Therein lies Kemi's problem. How to generalise the energy issue so it hits beyond Aberdeen, and does not have Starmer Burnham retorting that it was actually the last Tory government wot done it.
From the previous thread header: "Labour’s former deputy leader Harriet Harman say the party’s MPs should now decide the leadership - with no say for the party members - in order to preserve the ‘stability of government’ "
No. Once again Harman gets it wrong. It must be done by the book, and Burnham will actually get a boost by being seen to be responsible for dragging Starmer kicking and screaming away from No 10. Those who voted for Burnham yesterday weren't voting for more of the same, anything but.
Burnham must be acutely aware that Harriet Harman's actions led to the demise of his leadership campaign in 2015, after she overstepped her brief as acting temporary leader by trying to force through policy to the agenda of the right of the party and gave him the dilemma of whether or not to resign from the Shadow Cabinet. He made the wrong choice to stay in and the left of the party turned against him, paving the way for Corbyn.
Harman is the last person who should be offering him advice on this.
So when 11 years later Harriet Harman is advising a particular course of action, Burnham's first recourse should be to look to follow the exact opposite course. Give Starmer the weekend to announce his planned departure, in the knowledge that on Monday Burnham will regardless announce that he is standing for the leadership with the support of way over the required 81 MPs. Very likely a simple Burnham v Starmer contest according to party rules, because Streeting can't I think muster 81 supporters now that Burnham is a dead cert.
Can he launch a leadership bid Monday? Technically he isn't an MP until swearing in. Or am I wrong?
Streeting could, though, and Burnham could announce even if his formal entry would be delayed a bit.
If Streeting had 81 names we'd already have a contest. He'll have considerably fewer now. He'll need loans.
Streeting's path to power is somewhat rickety to say the least.
Here's a scenario for him:
Streeting's pitch to Burnham's support could be "You don't want Andy wielding the dagger, lend your vote to me". Someone gets in Keir's ear "Do not put yourself through the humiliation of a contest which Burnham is going to beat you handily in" and he resigns
Nominations count: Streeting 85 Burnham 80
Streeting becomes PM.
Streeting is not going to become PM, and I would guess he knows that. The point is rather the tactical manoeuvring to get Burnham into No10 sooner rather than later, and Streeting a seat in his cabinet, surely ?
Will be Burnham's CoE would be my guess. Would get the approval of the markets unlike Miliband or - perish the thought - Haigh
The Israelis have announced four dead and five wounded following a Hezbollah drone strike on an Israeli tank. Hezbollah are starting to use fibre-optic drones, while the Israelis deploy Russian-style aerial bombardment of urban areas.
If the Israelis don't have any effective drone countermeasures they might be facing a bit of trouble soon.
Israel is starting to annoy the Americans with both the President and Vice-President having recently spoken against Israel's salt the earth strategy.
The trouble is, as often stated, that anyone, any lone extremist (who does not have to be in government) can collapse the peace by provoking or being provoked by the other side. Both value victory above peace, and until America can persuade them otherwise, a series of short-lived ceasefires is all we can expect.
That's all true, but I guess my question was about the Israeli tolerance for military casualties.
If Hezbollah can crank up the volume of battlefield drone attacks then Israeli casualties might escalate quite quickly.
I sincerely doubt that scenario will lead to peace rather than vengeful escalation. But like everyone else who has yearned for Middle East peace in the last 60 years or more, I've no idea how to find it or even where to look.
I mentioned yesterday that saw some MAGA lot saying Trump should attack Israel if they continue to disrespect Trump's Iran deal.
It wouldn't take even that. Israel would be done for if any US President just ceased to regard Israel as an ally, because without copious US hardware their overwhelming military advantage would quickly evaporate and they would have to husband what military resources they still had access to rather than fritter them away attacking civilian populations.
With about 80% of Democrats now holding unfavourable views of Israel, that scenario isn't so implausible anymore. Netanyahu would be well advised to change course, but political considerations in Israel make that difficult for him.
Yes, what we often forget is that in Israel's government, Bibi is a moderate.
When I encounter someone like her I find it fascinating that someone thinks in a way utterly alien to the way I think. Most on PB who I disagree with, I can at least understand why they think like they do. But for her? Nothing.
"It;'s also worth noting that the International annual rate of jobs decline in mature oil fields is set at somehwere between 2-4% so from 1980 to 2030 the natural decline would be from about 130k to around 50k on a 2% decline. or roughly where we will are now regardless of Government policy."
Sorry but I do laugh when people make such ill informed comments.
What the hell has the decline in jobs in mature oil fields got to do with anything. Of course they decline. But then you find NEW oil and gas fields to replace them. There is still an estimated recoverable 15 billion BOE equivalent in the UK sector - set against total UK production since the start of the North Sea of 37 billion BOE equivalent. So there are decades of oil and gas still to be developed. Oh and every prediction ever made for the North Sea since it started has underestimated the reserves.
Those job declines are by no means inevitable except due to political decisions
His comment about basin collapse was interesting, but he failed to observe that it's more likely to happen if new drilling and extraction is discouraged.
No it is going to happen at some point because regardless of new drilling there will be eventual decline and what we need to do is accept that and prepare as best we can before it happens. New development will delay it but it is going to happen.
It's a bit like sending reinforcements to a position you can't hold.
You can delay it but you risk losing more men when it falls.
Best to send only enough to hold long enough to prepare a btetter line of defnce and then get as many out first before it falls.
I don't have a problem with some new marginal developments if they make sense, but ignoring the long term outcome becuase you don't want to face it, is burying your head in the sand.
Peter.
No burying of heads in sand - I think Richard is far more familiar with both the geology and economics of the N Sea, than either you or me (certainly me).
My friend @PeterKellner1 is the only polling expert I read who got remotely close to the actual result in Makerfield. It was so far away from what the polling organisations were showing that there's clearly an inquest to be had
The lesson for this for the Tories is to make a clear claim to be the party of business. The oil and gas policy is all well and good but it needs to extend to more areas of the economy. Their EU-obsessed period detracted from that platform.
(Unicycles are important. I have a friend who found that fitting a unicycle seat made her adapted cycle much more comfortable. No - me neither.)
What about unicyclists who break the traffic laws?
Pogo sticks?
I don't think a pogo stick is a vehicle aka "carriage", unlike a unicycle. A unicycle is a pedal cycle, and is required to have lights and reflectors when used in the dark. I assume that also means that e-assist is limited to 25kph.
This is down to a delicious legal case from 1879, Taylor vs Goodwin, when a cyclist hit someone and said he had no liability as it was not a "carriage".
The Judge said "oh yes it is" and "oh yes you are", which helps us in showing we are vehicles and have a right to use the roads, but did not help him on that occasion.
There are any number of these. There is one about whether a drunk cyclist was committing an offence, where one of the parties was called Corkery.
I hope all the Kemi Badenoch doubters on here have just watched her speaking live in Aberdeen South and absolutely nailing it when it comes to what matters. And most importantly she again was making the clear point that while all of the focus has been on one mans future job in the Makerfield by-election the campaign run in Aberdeen South by the Conservatives was all about focussing on thousands of jobs in the North East of Scotland.
Have we heard from Foxy 'easy SNP hold' today? *innocent face*
Not many constituencies in England & Wales are quite so directly impacted.
I think you'll find we're all very much affected by the loony tunes energy strategy. They are just at the particularly sharp end.
Therein lies Kemi's problem. How to generalise the energy issue so it hits beyond Aberdeen, and does not have Starmer Burnham retorting that it was actually the last Tory government wot done it.
I hope all the Kemi Badenoch doubters on here have just watched her speaking live in Aberdeen South and absolutely nailing it when it comes to what matters. And most importantly she again was making the clear point that while all of the focus has been on one mans future job in the Makerfield by-election the campaign run in Aberdeen South by the Conservatives was all about focussing on thousands of jobs in the North East of Scotland.
Have we heard from Foxy 'easy SNP hold' today? *innocent face*
From the previous thread header: "Labour’s former deputy leader Harriet Harman say the party’s MPs should now decide the leadership - with no say for the party members - in order to preserve the ‘stability of government’ "
No. Once again Harman gets it wrong. It must be done by the book, and Burnham will actually get a boost by being seen to be responsible for dragging Starmer kicking and screaming away from No 10. Those who voted for Burnham yesterday weren't voting for more of the same, anything but.
Burnham must be acutely aware that Harriet Harman's actions led to the demise of his leadership campaign in 2015, after she overstepped her brief as acting temporary leader by trying to force through policy to the agenda of the right of the party and gave him the dilemma of whether or not to resign from the Shadow Cabinet. He made the wrong choice to stay in and the left of the party turned against him, paving the way for Corbyn.
Harman is the last person who should be offering him advice on this.
So when 11 years later Harriet Harman is advising a particular course of action, Burnham's first recourse should be to look to follow the exact opposite course. Give Starmer the weekend to announce his planned departure, in the knowledge that on Monday Burnham will regardless announce that he is standing for the leadership with the support of way over the required 81 MPs. Very likely a simple Burnham v Starmer contest according to party rules, because Streeting can't I think muster 81 supporters now that Burnham is a dead cert.
Can he launch a leadership bid Monday? Technically he isn't an MP until swearing in. Or am I wrong?
Streeting could, though, and Burnham could announce even if his formal entry would be delayed a bit.
If Streeting had 81 names we'd already have a contest. He'll have considerably fewer now. He'll need loans.
Streeting's path to power is somewhat rickety to say the least.
Here's a scenario for him:
Streeting's pitch to Burnham's support could be "You don't want Andy wielding the dagger, lend your vote to me". Someone gets in Keir's ear "Do not put yourself through the humiliation of a contest which Burnham is going to beat you handily in" and he resigns
Nominations count: Streeting 85 Burnham 80
Streeting becomes PM.
Streeting is not going to become PM, and I would guess he knows that. The point is rather the tactical manoeuvring to get Burnham into No10 sooner rather than later, and Streeting a seat in his cabinet, surely ?
Will be Burnham's CoE would be my guess. Would get the approval of the markets unlike Miliband or - perish the thought - Haigh
Give him nothing. Forget keep your friends closer.
Day one set the tone; I am here and I am here for keeps. If Streeting wants to niggle let him do it from the back benches.
Bring in your own people, and not anyone who resigned over Starmer.
Streeting wanted to be PM and his best efforts to get rid of Starmer were a damp squib so why rate him highly.
Forget the big tent, you inheriit a huge majority so you don't need it.
People have in part turned against Starmer because he lacked leadership and wasn't decisive, he looked weak.
Give nothing to anyone with leadership ambitions, all but exile them to back bench irrelavance.
Nigel Farage came out badly. Reform lost Makersfield in part because Farage stayed clear.
Reform's by-election strategy needs to be to select a half-decent candidate who can't even spell X, let alone post on it, and then exploit their one electoral asset which is Farage himself.
Starmers won’t fight a leadership challenge. It’s pointless to spend two months to then suffer the indignity of losing to Burnham .
And a leadership campaign held during the Manchester mayoralty campaign seems ridiculous and could hand that to Reform .
No, what would hand GM to Reform would be for Starmer to remain in post with the absence of a leadership challenge by July.
With the GM mayoral election being held on 30 July, any leadership contest would not be over by then if it went the full distance. However, I think the most likeliest scenario now is that Starmer would not initially stand down only to withdraw from a contest within days as his support crumbled. A bit like how Thatcher bowed out.
On climate, the previous thread (Jokingly) reckons a Venus scenario is possible.
Taking global reserves of 1.77 Tn barrels of oil, 200 Tn cubic metres of gas, 1 Tn tonnes of coal if you burnt all of it it would yield 3.7 Tn tonnes of CO2 (Oil 0.8, Gas 0.4, Coal 2.5).
@ 44% absorption corresponds to ~ 260 ppm additional CO2 (3364 Bn tonnes in atmosphere = 430 ppm) which gets us to about 690 ppm by 2126. So a way away from the 998000 ppm of Venus
Historically 690 ppm is fine for the earth tbh, & everyone is using solar at that point.
The problem is solved because we've run out of fossil fuels.
It might fine for the Earth, but at 690 ppm it'll be warm enough to melt virtually all the ice at the poles, raising the sea level by around 60 m. So not so great for coastal settlements and low-lying plains like the ones where we grow most of our food. We'll just have to manage our population down and make Birmingham our new capital city.
Action on climate change is not needed to save the Earth. The Earth will be fine. It is needed to save human civilisation on Earth. It is all about protecting our economic wellbeing and our way of life for the long term. I think it has been missold as a mission to protect polar bears or whatever. It is not an act of altruism. It is hard nosed self interest. It is all about maybe taking a small economic hit now so that our grandchildren inherit a planet they can live on. You'd have to be either incredibly short-sighted or just not understand the nature of the trade-offs involved to oppose it, IMHO.
Hard to disagree with any of this.
BUT. Its a nonsense to carry on using fossil fuels from elsewhere and not our 'own' for reasons.
It's easy to disagree with this. Have you not noticed the biodiversity crisis? The human element on top should be enough to drive the response to the climate crisis but our fellow species are already suffering, that includes polar bears (please don't anyone quote polarbearscience.com - it's run by a climate denier, goes against every expert out there and run by someone with no background in polar bear research. All her polar bear work is self-published or by political climate denial think tanks. There's 'crock' in her name for a reason. She's full of it. But people think having a website is an expertise. In that case, polarbearscience.uk is available for £3.99 if you want to become Britain's polar bear expert).
I hope all the Kemi Badenoch doubters on here have just watched her speaking live in Aberdeen South and absolutely nailing it when it comes to what matters. And most importantly she again was making the clear point that while all of the focus has been on one mans future job in the Makerfield by-election the campaign run in Aberdeen South by the Conservatives was all about focussing on thousands of jobs in the North East of Scotland.
Have we heard from Foxy 'easy SNP hold' today? *innocent face*
Yes, and we’ve also heard from William ‘Makerfield will be Labour’s Waterloo’ Glenn *Dr Evil face*
Foxy accepted he was wrong. William said losing was a Farage tactical masterstroke. One of those positions is bonkers.
"Late on Wednesday, Liz released her latest offering. Boldly called: “Labour’s Secret Plan: Labour PANICKING as Reform surges in Makerfield By-Election.” This promised to be the inside story on Makerfield. An on-the-ground exposé of what all the major media outlets had missed."
My friend @PeterKellner1 is the only polling expert I read who got remotely close to the actual result in Makerfield. It was so far away from what the polling organisations were showing that there's clearly an inquest to be had
He didn’t have to. You can’t be a Police and Crime Commissioner and an MP (the two roles are part of the same package) so he was, in effect, disqualified from the former office as soon as he was elected.
My friend @PeterKellner1 is the only polling expert I read who got remotely close to the actual result in Makerfield. It was so far away from what the polling organisations were showing that there's clearly an inquest to be had
My friend @PeterKellner1 is the only polling expert I read who got remotely close to the actual result in Makerfield. It was so far away from what the polling organisations were showing that there's clearly an inquest to be had
After reading that thread by TSE two days ago I became far more relaxed about the likely result, because it tended to explain what was apparent on the ground despite the closeness of most published polls.
I hope all the Kemi Badenoch doubters on here have just watched her speaking live in Aberdeen South and absolutely nailing it when it comes to what matters. And most importantly she again was making the clear point that while all of the focus has been on one mans future job in the Makerfield by-election the campaign run in Aberdeen South by the Conservatives was all about focussing on thousands of jobs in the North East of Scotland.
Have we heard from Foxy 'easy SNP hold' today? *innocent face*
Yes, and we’ve also heard from William ‘Makerfield will be Labour’s Waterloo’ Glenn *Dr Evil face*
I said that after the date of the by-election was set but before Reform chose their candidate.
It's been a big week for whole life tariffs. There are only about 70 in England in all. But four this week alone. Varley earlier this week and three more today, though two of these were already on one.
FPT.Cicero said: In the face of the massive Murrell scandal, the SNP is walking on very thin ice. Pretending that it just one bad apple and there is nothing to see is not going to survive as a strategy when the next thing is discovered, and the one thing we do know is that there is more out there.
Flynn might be able to try with the new broom strategy, though losing his old seat is quite a bad look, but overall the Nats are looking both tired, somewhat entitled and a bit sleazy.
Therefore I think we could see growing softness in the SNP vote, and not just in the North East. Considering the long term strength of the SNP in Dundee and Angus, the result in Arbroath and Broughty Ferry was not particularly spectacular either - mostly a function of Labour weakness, and Reform splitting the right in a way that they could not do in Aberdeen. The SNP wave has crested, and if Labour or the Tories recover, the Nats may find the tide is going out, not just at Westminster but also Holyrood.
________________________________
Absolutely second this astute analysis by @Cicero, and lets just see how long the current SNP Government can continue to service the ever growingly expensive and batshit crazy demands of their Scottish Green coalition partners in all but name in return for shoring up their incompetent banana republic adminstration at Holyrood!!
I hope all the Kemi Badenoch doubters on here have just watched her speaking live in Aberdeen South and absolutely nailing it when it comes to what matters. And most importantly she again was making the clear point that while all of the focus has been on one mans future job in the Makerfield by-election the campaign run in Aberdeen South by the Conservatives was all about focussing on thousands of jobs in the North East of Scotland.
Have we heard from Foxy 'easy SNP hold' today? *innocent face*
Yes, and we’ve also heard from William ‘Makerfield will be Labour’s Waterloo’ Glenn *Dr Evil face*
I said that after the date of the by-election was set but before Reform chose their candidate.
"It;'s also worth noting that the International annual rate of jobs decline in mature oil fields is set at somehwere between 2-4% so from 1980 to 2030 the natural decline would be from about 130k to around 50k on a 2% decline. or roughly where we will are now regardless of Government policy."
Sorry but I do laugh when people make such ill informed comments.
What the hell has the decline in jobs in mature oil fields got to do with anything. Of course they decline. But then you find NEW oil and gas fields to replace them. There is still an estimated recoverable 15 billion BOE equivalent in the UK sector - set against total UK production since the start of the North Sea of 37 billion BOE equivalent. So there are decades of oil and gas still to be developed. Oh and every prediction ever made for the North Sea since it started has underestimated the reserves.
Those job declines are by no means inevitable except due to political decisions
His comment about basin collapse was interesting, but he failed to observe that it's more likely to happen if new drilling and extraction is discouraged.
No it is going to happen at some point because regardless of new drilling there will be eventual decline and what we need to do is accept that and prepare as best we can before it happens. New development will delay it but it is going to happen.
It's a bit like sending reinforcements to a position you can't hold.
You can delay it but you risk losing more men when it falls.
Best to send only enough to hold long enough to prepare a btetter line of defnce and then get as many out first before it falls.
I don't have a problem with some new marginal developments if they make sense, but ignoring the long term outcome becuase you don't want to face it, is burying your head in the sand.
Peter.
No burying of heads in sand - I think Richard is far more familiar with both the geology and economics of the N Sea, than either you or me (certainly me).
Much like fisherman who say there's "Plenty of Fish !" when there isn't there is nothing stopping people knowledgable about an Industry being as prone to believing what they want too over whats' true.
Nuclear, Coal, Oil & Gas, Fisheries, any community with it's core livelihood under threat, they all put forward every argumnet they can think of, even if contradictory.
I was once involved in a school amalgamantion where the parents argued the village needed the school because;
a) There was planning for lots of houses so they needed a school and
b) Without a school the village would die!
Really? If they are going to build all the house then clearly the village isn't going to die . If the village dies they won't build the houses.
The two schools we're less than a mile apart and the bridge between the two villages was less than 100 yards long!
Two great communities full of good intelegent people, but who none the less, they would have backed pretty much anything to keep their school open.
Labour might be value here. Reform are on a down, Labour on an up, and Mancunian voters might think there are goodies to be had from a Labour mayor in combination with ex Labour mayor as PM.
My friend @PeterKellner1 is the only polling expert I read who got remotely close to the actual result in Makerfield. It was so far away from what the polling organisations were showing that there's clearly an inquest to be had
Comments
The Israelis have announced four dead and five wounded following a Hezbollah drone strike on an Israeli tank. Hezbollah are starting to use fibre-optic drones, while the Israelis deploy Russian-style aerial bombardment of urban areas.
If the Israelis don't have any effective drone countermeasures they might be facing a bit of trouble soon.
i) protest vote based on the specifics of that constituency and not generalisable to others
ii) the emergence of an anti-Farage vote which went Kemi in ASouth but will go to others elsewhere.
Might as well interview the crocodile.
I see the Israeli revenge ratio is rapidly increasing, now 1000-1.
For every tear of an Israeli mother, a thousand Lebanese mothers must weep. All of Lebanon must burn!
With all due respect to the Americans, Israel must make it clear to the entire world that the blood of our sons and the security of our citizens are not forfeit. All of Lebanon must burn. Our supreme duty is to protect the citizens of Israel and the soldiers of the IDF, and this commitment takes precedence over every other consideration.
I told the Prime Minister, even in our private meetings: For every tear of an Israeli mother, a thousand Lebanese mothers must weep.
Enough with the ping-pong. In the Middle East, you don’t win with measured responses and restraint—you need to go berserk. To obliterate. To crush the terror.
https://x.com/itamarbengvir/status/2067865510281170957?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
The trouble is, as often stated, that anyone, any lone extremist (who does not have to be in government) can collapse the peace by provoking or being provoked by the other side. Both value victory above peace, and until America can persuade them otherwise, a series of short-lived ceasefires is all we can expect.
caroline wheeler
@cazjwheeler
·
52m
Excl: Keir Starmer is ringing members of the Cabinet in a bid to shore up his position in the wake of Andy Burnham’s by-election victory.
Will they have the courage to do so?
Hills: 5/4 each of two
Ladbrokes/Corals: 8/11 9/4
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/greater-manchester-mayoral-election/winner
Either that, or "mwah mwah mwah..." which translates as "I've just had some dental work done."
If Hezbollah can crank up the volume of battlefield drone attacks then Israeli casualties might escalate quite quickly.
Cyclists who break the Highway Code must ride unicycles instead.
I'll take that, if drivers who break the Highway code are made to drive pedal cars.
https://youtu.be/MCCVt8IhJkA?t=68
(Unicycles are important. I have a friend who found that fitting a unicycle seat made her adapted cycle much more comfortable. No - me neither.)
Healy has jumped
Streeting has jumped
I think
Cooper
Phillipson
Nandy
Lammy
Alexander
Are key
If 2 or 3 won't support he's toast
Osborne.
Did HEZBOLLAH attack
Or was it friendly fire and all made up.
You can't trust that cnut as far as you can throw him
It's all too bloody convenient
And a leadership campaign held during the Manchester mayoralty campaign seems ridiculous and could hand that to Reform .
Pogo sticks?
This is fine...
Turnout matters, but it depends who does the turning out.
Narrator: You've never voted Labour before!
BUT. Its a nonsense to carry on using fossil fuels from elsewhere and not our 'own' for reasons.
Look in the mirror, go to any Conservative Club, grovelling racism
The left don't attack her on colour on gender on ethnicity they attack her as she's arrogant, argumentative intellectually challenged and useless.
@PronouncedAlva
NEW: Keir Starmer warns Andy Burnham against "plunging our party and our country into chaos" in lunchtime call with Labour staff members.
https://x.com/PronouncedAlva/status/2067933948076872090
Morgan McSweeney sacked.
SKS accepts he needs to go after speaking to Wes and Ed.
SKS talks to McSweeney who says to fight on.
Of course, this paints McSweeney as SKS's Peter Mandelson, the sacked aide who never quite leaves.
ETA Peter Mandelson was never SKS's Peter Mandelson. By all accounts, they did not know each other or like each other. That's one reason SKS hit the roof over Mandygate – brought down by a gambit and man he'd not wanted in the first place.
The point is rather the tactical manoeuvring to get Burnham into No10 sooner rather than later, and Streeting a seat in his cabinet, surely ?
Peter.
Obvs.
David Aaronovitch
@DAaronovitch
My friend @PeterKellner1 is the only polling expert I read who got remotely close to the actual result in Makerfield. It was so far away from what the polling organisations were showing that there's clearly an inquest to be had
https://x.com/DAaronovitch/status/2067839683703243034
https://x.com/mikelavelle93/status/2067867058553901403/mediaViewer?mode=profile¤tTweet=2067867058553901403¤tTweetUser=mikelavelle93
Utterly hilarious
With about 80% of Democrats now holding unfavourable views of Israel, that scenario isn't so implausible anymore. Netanyahu would be well advised to change course, but political considerations in Israel make that difficult for him.
StarmerBurnham retorting that it was actually the last Tory government wot done it.@BlewettSam reports that the Greens have a candidate and are launching tomorrow
& two senior Labour officials tell me they believe the Labour candidate will be Bev Craig. She is the "only name in town," says one
https://x.com/danbloom1/status/2067916145022083518
And Sonny Baker too for staying with him 👍
This is down to a delicious legal case from 1879, Taylor vs Goodwin, when a cyclist hit someone and said he had no liability as it was not a "carriage".
The Judge said "oh yes it is" and "oh yes you are", which helps us in showing we are vehicles and have a right to use the roads, but did not help him on that occasion.
There are any number of these. There is one about whether a drunk cyclist was committing an offence, where one of the parties was called Corkery.
Day one set the tone; I am here and I am here for keeps. If Streeting wants to niggle let him do it from the back benches.
Bring in your own people, and not anyone who resigned over Starmer.
Streeting wanted to be PM and his best efforts to get rid of Starmer were a damp squib so why rate him highly.
Forget the big tent, you inheriit a huge majority so you don't need it.
People have in part turned against Starmer because he lacked leadership and wasn't decisive, he looked weak.
Give nothing to anyone with leadership ambitions, all but exile them to back bench irrelavance.
Peter.
Reform's by-election strategy needs to be to select a half-decent candidate who can't even spell X, let alone post on it, and then exploit their one electoral asset which is Farage himself.
With the GM mayoral election being held on 30 July, any leadership contest would not be over by then if it went the full distance. However, I think the most likeliest scenario now is that Starmer would not initially stand down only to withdraw from a contest within days as his support crumbled. A bit like how Thatcher bowed out.
Foxy accepted he was wrong. William said losing was a Farage tactical masterstroke. One of those positions is bonkers.
https://x.com/trussliz/status/2067291184670871703
"Late on Wednesday, Liz released her latest offering. Boldly called: “Labour’s Secret Plan: Labour PANICKING as Reform surges in Makerfield By-Election.” This promised to be the inside story on Makerfield. An on-the-ground exposé of what all the major media outlets had missed."
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jun/18/truss-the-saviour-exposes-labours-secret-plan
🌹 Labour: 6/5
🔵 Reform: 11/8
🟢 Green: 7/2
🔷 Restore Britain: 20/1
🔵 Conservatives: 66/1
🔶 Liberal Democrats: 500/1
https://starsports.bet/event/177706941/greater-manchester-mayoral-election-
Still pissed off that I lost a nice payout by 0.2% of the vote.
https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/06/17/why-the-polls-might-be-underestimating-burnham/
https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/06/17/why-the-polls-might-be-underestimating-burnham/
After reading that thread by TSE two days ago I became far more relaxed about the likely result, because it tended to explain what was apparent on the ground despite the closeness of most published polls.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0myrjw309ko
Flynn might be able to try with the new broom strategy, though losing his old seat is quite a bad look, but overall the Nats are looking both tired, somewhat entitled and a bit sleazy.
Therefore I think we could see growing softness in the SNP vote, and not just in the North East. Considering the long term strength of the SNP in Dundee and Angus, the result in Arbroath and Broughty Ferry was not particularly spectacular either - mostly a function of Labour weakness, and Reform splitting the right in a way that they could not do in Aberdeen. The SNP wave has crested, and if Labour or the Tories recover, the Nats may find the tide is going out, not just at Westminster but also Holyrood.
________________________________
Absolutely second this astute analysis by @Cicero, and lets just see how long the current SNP Government can continue to service the ever growingly expensive and batshit crazy demands of their Scottish Green coalition partners in all but name in return for shoring up their incompetent banana republic adminstration at Holyrood!!
Nuclear, Coal, Oil & Gas, Fisheries, any community with it's core livelihood under threat, they all put forward every argumnet they can think of, even if contradictory.
I was once involved in a school amalgamantion where the parents argued the village needed the school because;
a) There was planning for lots of houses so they needed a school and
b) Without a school the village would die!
Really? If they are going to build all the house then clearly the village isn't going to die .
If the village dies they won't build the houses.
The two schools we're less than a mile apart and the bridge between the two villages was less than 100 yards long!
Two great communities full of good intelegent people, but who none the less, they would have backed pretty much anything to keep their school open.
Peter.
And credit to you for spotting this.