When did the Tories last gain a Westminster seat? Must be an age ago...
Hartlepool in 2021.
Last time the Tories gained a seat in a Scottish by election though was 1948 so huge boost for Kemi if the Aberdeen South reports are correct
It would be a shock if Tories didn't win
SNP rocked by scandal and popular MP gone
Labour deeply unpopular everywhere
Reform not that strong further north
Not LD or Green territory.
Tories have abandoned English By Elections on North thrown massive effort in to Aberdeen
Badenoch been 3 times.
If SNP held would be a big shock
It'll be a shock to punters who had the SNP as favourites until about 10pm.
Indeed, fair play to you if a Tory win is a final result. I didn't have any money on but thought it would be fairly close either way
Journos on twitter starting to report higher Tory piles than SNP ones in the count centre
I had a gut feeling the Scottish Conservatives could gain Aberdeen South from the start especially when they selected Douglas Lumsden to fight the seat so I bet on that outcome. I also thought from the start of the campaign that both the SNP and Reform had picked the wrong candidates to fight this seat as well.
X Scott Wortley@Scott_Wortley I think Conservatives will win Aberdeen South and it will come as a huge shock to the UK media because they have not paid attention to the Holyrood result in the area, relatively poor SNP turnout in recent scottish by elections, & name recognition as councillor and MSP re Lumsden
X Tom Gordon@DMScotPol Scottish Conservatives reckon they have thrashed the SNP in Aberdeen South byelection, after a tactical vote in their favour driven by focus on North Sea oil and gas https://x.com/DMScotPol/status/2067756117124391275
SNP Aberdeen Central MSP Jack Middleton has just been interviewed on Skynews and has basically conceded that the Scottish Conservatives have gained Aberdeen South. He said that the Scottish Labour vote had completely collapsed and they had hardly even campaigned in the by election and there had been a huge amount of tactical voting at play.
Why is chatter pouring out of Aberdeen South but not Makerfield?
My take on it is that it's fairly close in Makerfield, and not that close in Aberdeen South. Could be totally wrong of course.
Turnout was only confirmed 30 minutes ago. It's high. Much higher than the Scottish ones. So perhaps takes longer for a pattern to emerge. Walked through Hindley just after 10 pm. Was absolutely dead. More even than usual. Reckon folk are exhausted.
Aberdeen South may have been the wealthiest seat in the UK in the late 70s / early 80s, when the oil boom was at its height. In Paul Theroux's book on walking around the UK at that time, he said the hotel room rates in Aberdeen were off the scale compared to everywhere else he'd stayed on his trip.
"Reform UK gloomy about prospects in Makerfield, as one party source says Labour ahead by 2,500 votes
A Reform UK source just told me they currently expect to lose to Burnham by around 2,500 votes. An official spokesperson would not comment on numbers but said they believe it’s “fairly close” and that “no one’s running away with it.”"
Why is chatter pouring out of Aberdeen South but not Makerfield?
People in Scotland are better at counting?
Pennies, certainly.
Other things too.
"... One toaster for me... One toaster for Nic... One toaster for the SNP HQ... Three gold pens for me... Two gold pens for Nic... One for the SNP HQ..."
Starmer now has his comeback narrative. He can say that he's listened to the voters in Aberdeen and decided to sack Ed Miliband while ignoring the less significant by election in Makerfield.
Thats another result the Tories will be content with. They were never going to take the seat, they are far stronger in rural Angus. A decent springboard for the next election.
SNP will be happy to hold, but utterly dire from Labour. They only lost this seat by 859 votes in 2024
Spectacular result for the Tories in Aberdeen, Arbroath up next.
Tories win back a seat they held until the excellent Stephen Flynn won it in 2019 in a meagre turnout where barely 30% voted.
Spectacular LOL
Get a grip.
Labour nearly lose their deposit LOL
Let's see the Tory vote in Makerfield, may be even lower than Gorton
I predicted before, Aberdeen could be most Southerly seat Tories hold at next GE.
DINOSAUR Oil lobby voting for Climate disaster
Massive public opinion in favour of green renewable safe energy, except in Oil City clearly.
The Tories also made gains in London in the local elections, so are progressing in the capital as well as parts of Scotland. They also held a number of Southern councils
A very positive result for the Scottish Conservatives in Aberdeen South, though it must be said this ought not to have been in much doubt - with such a focus on North Sea oil and gas (which has been the Conservatives' focus not just locally but on the national level, including their chosen topic in most recent PMQ sessions), not to mention the relatively recent Peter Murrell revelations. Had the seat not gone Conservative tonight, it would have been dismal for them.
It will be an even better morning for the Conservatives if Andy Burnham beats Reform in Makerfield.
Spectacular result for the Tories in Aberdeen, Arbroath up next.
Tories win back a seat they held until the excellent Stephen Flynn won it in 2019 in a meagre turnout where barely 30% voted.
Spectacular LOL
Get a grip.
Labour nearly lose their deposit LOL
Let's see the Tory vote in Makerfield, may be even lower than Gorton
I predicted before, Aberdeen could be most Southerly seat Tories hold at next GE.
DINOSAUR Oil lobby voting for Climate disaster
Massive public opinion in favour of green renewable safe energy, except in Oil City clearly.
The Tories also made gains in London in the local elections, so are progressing in the capital as well as parts of Scotland. They also held a number of Southern councils
Spectacular result for the Tories in Aberdeen, Arbroath up next.
Tories win back a seat they held until the excellent Stephen Flynn won it in 2019 in a meagre turnout where barely 30% voted.
Spectacular LOL
Get a grip.
Labour nearly lose their deposit LOL
Let's see the Tory vote in Makerfield, may be even lower than Gorton
I predicted before, Aberdeen could be most Southerly seat Tories hold at next GE.
DINOSAUR Oil lobby voting for Climate disaster
Massive public opinion in favour of green renewable safe energy, except in Oil City clearly.
The Tories also made gains in London in the local elections, so are progressing in the capital as well as parts of Scotland. They also held a number of Southern councils
IF
Burnham out polls the combined Reform, Restore, Tory vote in Makerfield, less than 2 months after Council Elections, then that's a disaster for Tories who are irrelevant in most parts of England, Reform and Restore.
Would indicate massive Progressive Centre Left tactical vote in next GE to beat Reform and destroy Tories
It's going to be popcorn time tomorrow as far as Reform vs Restore is concerned on social media. (Even if Burnham has won more than 50% as seems likely).
It's going to be popcorn time tomorrow as far as Reform vs Restore is concerned on social media. (Even if Burnham has won more than 50% as seems likely).
Feel like this will be a potential moment for the right. Chance for Tories here to be “neither of those nutters”
It's weird, Twitter kept assuring me Andy Bunrham wasn't even that popular, despite the fact I live in Manchester where he is really popular.
Yes. A succession of folk with no ties to GM kept sternly informing people that it was not true. Even famous non-Labour types like cookie and Barty were basically told they were hallucinating.
It's going to be popcorn time tomorrow as far as Reform vs Restore is concerned on social media. (Even if Burnham has won more than 50% as seems likely).
The vote split is going to be the entertainment here. After all the big talk, are Restore going to be sub 5%?
It's weird, Twitter kept assuring me Andy Bunrham wasn't even that popular, despite the fact I live in Manchester where he is really popular.
Yes. A succession of folk with no ties to GM kept sternly informing people that it was not true. Even famous non-Labour types like cookie and Barty were basically told they were hallucinating.
Always felt weird to me. I don’t like the man but I can’t deny he’s popular on a scale no Labour person has been for a very long time. Hence why he’s clearly their best choice.
Spectacular result for the Tories in Aberdeen, Arbroath up next.
Tories win back a seat they held until the excellent Stephen Flynn won it in 2019 in a meagre turnout where barely 30% voted.
Spectacular LOL
Get a grip.
Labour nearly lose their deposit LOL
Let's see the Tory vote in Makerfield, may be even lower than Gorton
I predicted before, Aberdeen could be most Southerly seat Tories hold at next GE.
DINOSAUR Oil lobby voting for Climate disaster
Massive public opinion in favour of green renewable safe energy, except in Oil City clearly.
The Tories also made gains in London in the local elections, so are progressing in the capital as well as parts of Scotland. They also held a number of Southern councils
Betfair Exchange haven't paid out on Aberdeen South yet. Maybe their staffer decided to go to bed and we have to wait until tomorrow.
Betfair has been understaffed for years. Probably there's one person working overnight and he's tied up watching the football and cleaning the toilets.
It's weird, Twitter kept assuring me Andy Bunrham wasn't even that popular, despite the fact I live in Manchester where he is really popular.
Yes. A succession of folk with no ties to GM kept sternly informing people that it was not true. Even famous non-Labour types like cookie and Barty were basically told they were hallucinating.
One of my friends is active in the Welsh Greens, and he assured me that Burnham wasn't popular.
I had to remind him that he got over 60% last time around and the next nearest candidate got 10%. Wins every ward. It's hard to make a dent in that kind of popularity.
It's weird, Twitter kept assuring me Andy Bunrham wasn't even that popular, despite the fact I live in Manchester where he is really popular.
Yes. A succession of folk with no ties to GM kept sternly informing people that it was not true. Even famous non-Labour types like cookie and Barty were basically told they were hallucinating.
Always felt weird to me. I don’t like the man but I can’t deny he’s popular on a scale no Labour person has been for a very long time. Hence why he’s clearly their best choice.
Why don't you like him out of interest? He seems the very definition of a likeable bloke. But maybe that's a NW thing. I never could get the Boris thing.
Nothing worse in sport than watching a slow, defensive football match when you've just watched an interesting one. And this Mexico v South Korea contest is pretty boring so far.
It's weird, Twitter kept assuring me Andy Bunrham wasn't even that popular, despite the fact I live in Manchester where he is really popular.
Yes. A succession of folk with no ties to GM kept sternly informing people that it was not true. Even famous non-Labour types like cookie and Barty were basically told they were hallucinating.
Always felt weird to me. I don’t like the man but I can’t deny he’s popular on a scale no Labour person has been for a very long time. Hence why he’s clearly their best choice.
Why don't you like him out of interest? He seems the very definition of a likeable bloke. But maybe that's a NW thing. I never could get the Boris thing.
He strikes me as completely empty and opportunistic and willing to do and say basically anything. He was an average minister and did terribly in two leadership contests (2015 being a particular highlight).
I don’t care where the PM is from. It’s never bothered me.
I don’t hate him. I just don’t warm to him. He seems like Sir Keir but more charismatic.
Comments
Electorate: 77,462
Total votes: 45,510
Turnout: 58.75%
Just got up after a quick nap
Any word on what time the result will be declared?
X
Scott Wortley@Scott_Wortley
I think Conservatives will win Aberdeen South and it will come as a huge shock to the UK media because they have not paid attention to the Holyrood result in the area, relatively poor SNP turnout in recent scottish by elections, & name recognition as councillor and MSP re Lumsden
Tom Gordon@DMScotPol
Scottish Conservatives reckon they have thrashed the SNP in Aberdeen South byelection, after a tactical vote in their favour driven by focus on North Sea oil and gas
https://x.com/DMScotPol/status/2067756117124391275
OMRLP party leader Howling Laud Hope is now at the Makerfield count. Turned 84 this week, even older than Biden
Electorate 75,985
Verified papers 23,827
Turnout 31.36%
Even if the Tories lose their deposit in Makerfield, taking Aberdeen South would be a fantastic night for them
Farage has said Tommy Robinson is not welcome in Reform by contrast
https://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/19953/makerfield?page=108
The Tories gained Glasgow Kelvin from Labour in 1967.
Walked through Hindley just after 10 pm. Was absolutely dead. More even than usual. Reckon folk are exhausted.
A Reform UK source just told me they currently expect to lose to Burnham by around 2,500 votes. An official spokesperson would not comment on numbers but said they believe it’s “fairly close” and that “no one’s running away with it.”"
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2026/jun/18/makerfield-byelection-keir-starmer-andy-burnham-robert-kenyon-labour-leadership-reform-aberdeen-arbroath-uk-politics-latest-news-updates
https://www.facebook.com/share/r/14eH7LJYSCq/
"... One toaster for me... One toaster for Nic... One toaster for the SNP HQ... Three gold pens for me... Two gold pens for Nic... One for the SNP HQ..."
Interesting by-election to come for the Greater Manchester mayoralship. Is it going to be FPTP or preferential voting?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m002xv7k/election-26-byelection-special
Con 14,???
SNP 8,258
Ref 2,478
Lab 1,550
LD 1,270
Grn 974
Alliance Democracy 59
ie You give 1st and 2nd choices only.
2nd choices reallocated for everyone outside top 2.
Aberdeen South
Con 14,308 (49.62%) [+25.14%]
SNP 8,258 (28.64%) [-4.25%]
Ref 2,478 (8.59%) [+1.68%]
Lab 1,550 (5.37%) [-19.36%]
LD 1,270 (4.40%) [-1.91%]
Grn 974 (3.38%) [-0.10%]
Alliance Democracy 59 (0.20%)
It really does feel as if Reform cannot win the next GE.
Labour favourites but Conservatives have a good chance too.
SNP 9,802 (41.24%)
Con 4,524 (19.03%)
Ref 4,341 (18.26%)
Lab 3,651 (15.36%)
LD 1,452 (6.11%)
Spectacular LOL
Get a grip.
SNP +6%
Con +4%
Ref +10%
Lab -18%
LD +1%
SNP will be happy to hold, but utterly dire from Labour. They only lost this seat by 859 votes in 2024
Tories final redoubts of Scotland and London?
Upside down world!
Totally different scenario in Makerfield High turn out
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.258206408
Easy SNP win Labour voters stayed at home
Why are Mexico playing in black and Korea in pink?
It's totally random.
Mexico are green and Korea red.*
*I know green and red is a really poor combination for the colour blind.
But nonetheless...
I predicted before, Aberdeen could be most Southerly seat Tories hold at next GE.
DINOSAUR Oil lobby voting for Climate disaster
Massive public opinion in favour of green renewable safe energy, except in Oil City clearly.
Proper World Cup colours would get my vote.
Mr Burnham make it so.
It will be an even better morning for the Conservatives if Andy Burnham beats Reform in Makerfield.
Rochford, Sweyne Park & Grange
Con 56.1% (+39.2)
Ref 24.8% (-14.9)
LD 13.2% (-3.3)
Grn 4.2% (-3.9)
Lab 1.7% (-1.9)
Con gain from RefUK
Kemi having a good night....
The man has a massive personal vote, he got 60 odd percent in the Mayoral, that wasn't going to just melt away.
Burnham out polls the combined Reform, Restore, Tory vote in Makerfield, less than 2 months after Council Elections, then that's a disaster for Tories who are irrelevant in most parts of England, Reform and Restore.
Would indicate massive Progressive Centre Left tactical vote in next GE to beat Reform and destroy Tories
THATS THE POLITICAL SYORY OF THE NEXT 3 YEARS
Even famous non-Labour types like cookie and Barty were basically told they were hallucinating.
Burnham on his way to Westminster is excellent news and this looks like a terrible night for Reform
Congratulations Andy and Kemi and look forward to their engagement at PMQs
A couple of handy Labour holds in Swansea and Bury too.
I had to remind him that he got over 60% last time around and the next nearest candidate got 10%. Wins every ward. It's hard to make a dent in that kind of popularity.
He seems the very definition of a likeable bloke. But maybe that's a NW thing.
I never could get the Boris thing.
I don’t care where the PM is from. It’s never bothered me.
I don’t hate him. I just don’t warm to him. He seems like Sir Keir but more charismatic.