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Why the polls might be underestimating Burnham – politicalbetting.com

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  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,519
    Great second half.

    And not one yellow card the whole match?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 57,012
    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    4:2 they think its all over...

    It is now!
    That is a formidable forward line but defence needs work. We need a tighter defence in the knock out stages.

    3 points are a great start. Croatia faded fast, that pressing game was unsustainable, and England kept the energy.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,361
    DavidL said:

    Just be careful nothing weird happens in the showers. It is Dallas after all.

    Greatest retcon ever.

    I hope whoever is making Dr Who next has the same idea. Maybe Captain Jack in the shower?
  • boulayboulay Posts: 9,003

    4-2!

    Rashford!

    I find it such an odd thing to type as a Liverpool fan but I would love Liverpool to sign Rashford to replace Gakpo. Now I need to go to therapy.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,898
    So, for the political betting angle, does England’s win tonight help Burnham, Reform, or Restore, in Makerfield?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 57,012
    Andy_JS said:

    My prediction for tomorrow's by-elections

    Aberdeen South -> Con gain from SNP
    Arbroath & Broughton Ferry -> SNP hold (with strong Ref UK performance)
    Makerfield -> very narrow Lab hold

    Makerfield: comfortable Burnham win

    Aberdeen South, Arbroath and Broughton Ferry both SNP holds against very split opposition.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 9,646
    edited June 17
    Sandpit said:

    So, for the political betting angle, does England’s win tonight help Burnham, Reform, or Restore, in Makerfield?

    Burnham. The others would probably want to deport Rashford to somewhere.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,361
    Sandpit said:

    So, for the political betting angle, does England’s win tonight help Burnham, Reform, or Restore, in Makerfield?

    Labour don’t tend to like the cross of St George, so there’s that.
  • Burnham majority of 5000
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,361

    Burnham majority of 5000

    You have to wonder about turnout. Will people be arsed?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,361
    And will polling be ‘brisk’?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,300

    And will polling be ‘brisk’?

    Undoubtedly.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,448
    carnforth said:

    Non-stop London to Sydney flights from next year!

    https://x.com/qantas/status/2067227199330300075

    Braver souls than I doing that in Economy or Premium Economy. I did 16 hours on China Airlines economy and almost threw a wobbly.
    Qantas are planning on having only 238 passengers, compared to 350-410 in a standard A350-1000, so it might not be as bad as you think.

    I'm guessing they don't want a dozen blood clot deaths in the first six months to scare people off.

    This Airbus webpage says there will be a "wellbeing zone" where passengers can stretch. https://www.airbus.com/en/newsroom/stories/2026-06-countdown-to-the-worlds-longest-commercial-flights-the-airbus-a350-1000ulr

    Still, 22 hours without being able to lie down would be pretty awful, but if it reduces the end-to-end travel time by eliminating a stopover it might be better overall.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 22,067
    Are they counting Makerfield overnight?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,361

    carnforth said:

    Non-stop London to Sydney flights from next year!

    https://x.com/qantas/status/2067227199330300075

    Braver souls than I doing that in Economy or Premium Economy. I did 16 hours on China Airlines economy and almost threw a wobbly.
    Qantas are planning on having only 238 passengers, compared to 350-410 in a standard A350-1000, so it might not be as bad as you think.

    I'm guessing they don't want a dozen blood clot deaths in the first six months to scare people off.

    This Airbus webpage says there will be a "wellbeing zone" where passengers can stretch. https://www.airbus.com/en/newsroom/stories/2026-06-countdown-to-the-worlds-longest-commercial-flights-the-airbus-a350-1000ulr

    Still, 22 hours without being able to lie down would be pretty awful, but if it reduces the end-to-end travel time by eliminating a stopover it might be better overall.
    When I was hoping to and fro to NZ I used to do it in one go with 3-6 h in Singapore (usually). So about 22 h in economy with a decent break (shower, walk around etc). I usually tried to sleep as much as possible, especially on the second leg as you usually arrived in the morning.

    I wouldn’t see an issue with non-stop.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,448
    Sandpit said:

    So, for the political betting angle, does England’s win tonight help Burnham, Reform, or Restore, in Makerfield?

    Optimism should help Burnham, as that is his pitch.
  • By the end of this year, Labour will have recorded a poll lead. Come back and tell
    Me.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,361

    By the end of this year, Labour will have recorded a poll lead. Come back and tell
    Me.

    We won’t have to - you will surely tell us! :D
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,448
    edited June 17

    carnforth said:

    Non-stop London to Sydney flights from next year!

    https://x.com/qantas/status/2067227199330300075

    Braver souls than I doing that in Economy or Premium Economy. I did 16 hours on China Airlines economy and almost threw a wobbly.
    Qantas are planning on having only 238 passengers, compared to 350-410 in a standard A350-1000, so it might not be as bad as you think.

    I'm guessing they don't want a dozen blood clot deaths in the first six months to scare people off.

    This Airbus webpage says there will be a "wellbeing zone" where passengers can stretch. https://www.airbus.com/en/newsroom/stories/2026-06-countdown-to-the-worlds-longest-commercial-flights-the-airbus-a350-1000ulr

    Still, 22 hours without being able to lie down would be pretty awful, but if it reduces the end-to-end travel time by eliminating a stopover it might be better overall.
    When I was hoping to and fro to NZ I used to do it in one go with 3-6 h in Singapore (usually). So about 22 h in economy with a decent break (shower, walk around etc). I usually tried to sleep as much as possible, especially on the second leg as you usually arrived in the morning.

    I wouldn’t see an issue with non-stop.
    I've done ~20-24 hours in a coach a few times (no idea what the seat pitch in those was) and I found it a real slog, because I wasn't able to sleep sitting mostly upright. And that had the benefit of occasional stops where you could get out and wander around.

    My wife pointed out that the 22-hour flight time is almost exactly the same as the new 21.5 hour ferry service from Cork to Boulogne, which would be a rather different experience (with the potential additional excitement of a run-in with the Russian navy). But then you're in Boulogne and not Sydney.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 90,023

    DavidL said:

    Did you ever wake up, kiss the person sleeping beside you and feel glad you're alive?

    I did.

    Can’t fly with QANTAS any more though.

    This morning actually.
    Lucky you.

    I absolutely got bodied my eldest son recently.

    He's doing his exams and we were talking about his future, and I told him his grandparents might want him to have an arranged marriage, my son's response was

    'I might go for that, they've been married for over 50 years, you've not had a relationship that's lasted more than 5 years.'
    I don't think Big_G or Old King C have arranged marriages ?
    They seem to have done OK.

    (37 yrs and counting, myself.)

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,611
    Andy_JS said:

    My prediction for tomorrow's by-elections

    Aberdeen South -> Con gain from SNP
    Arbroath & Broughton Ferry -> SNP hold (with strong Ref UK performance)
    Makerfield -> very narrow Lab hold

    On the first I am on at 2.9

    They seemed to have drifted to 3.7

  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,448
    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Did you ever wake up, kiss the person sleeping beside you and feel glad you're alive?

    I did.

    Can’t fly with QANTAS any more though.

    This morning actually.
    Lucky you.

    I absolutely got bodied my eldest son recently.

    He's doing his exams and we were talking about his future, and I told him his grandparents might want him to have an arranged marriage, my son's response was

    'I might go for that, they've been married for over 50 years, you've not had a relationship that's lasted more than 5 years.'
    I don't think Big_G or Old King C have arranged marriages ?
    They seem to have done OK.

    (37 yrs and counting, myself.)

    My wife [of nearly twelve years] told me earlier today that she's too tired to be able to complete the divorce paperwork. I think she intended for me to find that reassuring (!)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,300
    "The Plaid Cymru-led Welsh Government has failed to back the UK’s membership of Nato.

    Elin Jones, the country’s finance minister, declined to say whether the minority Welsh Government supported the military alliance when asked to do so by Jo Stevens, the Welsh Secretary.

    Labour has accused Plaid of being “completely irresponsible” by failing to set out its position on Nato at a time of significant geopolitical instability."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/06/17/plaid-cymru-fails-to-back-britains-nato-membership
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,656

    Burnham majority of 5000

    You have to wonder about turnout. Will people be arsed?
    Why wouldn't you. It's the most consequential thing to happen in Makerfield in my lifetime.
    Although the Grateful Dead at the Bickershaw Festival comes close.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,656

    Are they counting Makerfield overnight?

    Yes.
    4 to 5am result expected.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,611
    edited June 17
    James Carville on Trump: “I genuinely think he will resign next spring."

    "The son of a bitch is just gonna walk away"

    https://x.com/MarcoFoster_/status/2067353082350932260

    Carville theory is he wont be able to cope with the midterm consequences plus health issues and will do a deal with Vance for a pardon of Trump and all family and associates. Otherwise he is relying on self-pardon.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,611

    Aaron Rupar
    @atrupar
    ·
    1m
    Trump: "It's signed. I signed it in Versailles. I just signed it."
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,536


    Aaron Rupar
    @atrupar
    ·
    1m
    Trump: "It's signed. I signed it in Versailles. I just signed it."

    So - another World War within 20 years?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,300
    edited June 17
    Watching the Panama v Ghana match, England probably won't feel too perturbed by anything that's happened so far.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,353

    carnforth said:

    Non-stop London to Sydney flights from next year!

    https://x.com/qantas/status/2067227199330300075

    Braver souls than I doing that in Economy or Premium Economy. I did 16 hours on China Airlines economy and almost threw a wobbly.
    Qantas are planning on having only 238 passengers, compared to 350-410 in a standard A350-1000, so it might not be as bad as you think.

    I'm guessing they don't want a dozen blood clot deaths in the first six months to scare people off.

    This Airbus webpage says there will be a "wellbeing zone" where passengers can stretch. https://www.airbus.com/en/newsroom/stories/2026-06-countdown-to-the-worlds-longest-commercial-flights-the-airbus-a350-1000ulr

    Still, 22 hours without being able to lie down would be pretty awful, but if it reduces the end-to-end travel time by eliminating a stopover it might be better overall.
    When I was hoping to and fro to NZ I used to do it in one go with 3-6 h in Singapore (usually). So about 22 h in economy with a decent break (shower, walk around etc). I usually tried to sleep as much as possible, especially on the second leg as you usually arrived in the morning.

    I wouldn’t see an issue with non-stop.
    I've done ~20-24 hours in a coach a few times (no idea what the seat pitch in those was) and I found it a real slog, because I wasn't able to sleep sitting mostly upright. And that had the benefit of occasional stops where you could get out and wander around.

    My wife pointed out that the 22-hour flight time is almost exactly the same as the new 21.5 hour ferry service from Cork to Boulogne, which would be a rather different experience (with the potential additional excitement of a run-in with the Russian navy). But then you're in Boulogne and not Sydney.
    Brave. The longest coach I've done was London to Paris and that was bad enough. £4 though...
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 28,927

    carnforth said:

    Non-stop London to Sydney flights from next year!

    https://x.com/qantas/status/2067227199330300075

    Braver souls than I doing that in Economy or Premium Economy. I did 16 hours on China Airlines economy and almost threw a wobbly.
    Qantas are planning on having only 238 passengers, compared to 350-410 in a standard A350-1000, so it might not be as bad as you think.

    I'm guessing they don't want a dozen blood clot deaths in the first six months to scare people off.

    This Airbus webpage says there will be a "wellbeing zone" where passengers can stretch. https://www.airbus.com/en/newsroom/stories/2026-06-countdown-to-the-worlds-longest-commercial-flights-the-airbus-a350-1000ulr

    Still, 22 hours without being able to lie down would be pretty awful, but if it reduces the end-to-end travel time by eliminating a stopover it might be better overall.
    When I was hoping to and fro to NZ I used to do it in one go with 3-6 h in Singapore (usually). So about 22 h in economy with a decent break (shower, walk around etc). I usually tried to sleep as much as possible, especially on the second leg as you usually arrived in the morning.

    I wouldn’t see an issue with non-stop.
    I've done ~20-24 hours in a coach a few times (no idea what the seat pitch in those was) and I found it a real slog, because I wasn't able to sleep sitting mostly upright. And that had the benefit of occasional stops where you could get out and wander around.

    My wife pointed out that the 22-hour flight time is almost exactly the same as the new 21.5 hour ferry service from Cork to Boulogne, which would be a rather different experience (with the potential additional excitement of a run-in with the Russian navy). But then you're in Boulogne and not Sydney.
    I did the Caledonian Express last year. Boarded London 10:30pm, arrived Edinburgh 7:30am, detrained 8am. I may have mentioned it.

    :)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,656
    viewcode said:

    carnforth said:

    Non-stop London to Sydney flights from next year!

    https://x.com/qantas/status/2067227199330300075

    Braver souls than I doing that in Economy or Premium Economy. I did 16 hours on China Airlines economy and almost threw a wobbly.
    Qantas are planning on having only 238 passengers, compared to 350-410 in a standard A350-1000, so it might not be as bad as you think.

    I'm guessing they don't want a dozen blood clot deaths in the first six months to scare people off.

    This Airbus webpage says there will be a "wellbeing zone" where passengers can stretch. https://www.airbus.com/en/newsroom/stories/2026-06-countdown-to-the-worlds-longest-commercial-flights-the-airbus-a350-1000ulr

    Still, 22 hours without being able to lie down would be pretty awful, but if it reduces the end-to-end travel time by eliminating a stopover it might be better overall.
    When I was hoping to and fro to NZ I used to do it in one go with 3-6 h in Singapore (usually). So about 22 h in economy with a decent break (shower, walk around etc). I usually tried to sleep as much as possible, especially on the second leg as you usually arrived in the morning.

    I wouldn’t see an issue with non-stop.
    I've done ~20-24 hours in a coach a few times (no idea what the seat pitch in those was) and I found it a real slog, because I wasn't able to sleep sitting mostly upright. And that had the benefit of occasional stops where you could get out and wander around.

    My wife pointed out that the 22-hour flight time is almost exactly the same as the new 21.5 hour ferry service from Cork to Boulogne, which would be a rather different experience (with the potential additional excitement of a run-in with the Russian navy). But then you're in Boulogne and not Sydney.
    I did the Caledonian Express last year. Boarded London 10:30pm, arrived Edinburgh 7:30am, detrained 8am. I may have mentioned it.

    :)
    Were you shot for using the term detrained?
  • boulayboulay Posts: 9,003


    Aaron Rupar
    @atrupar
    ·
    1m
    Trump: "It's signed. I signed it in Versailles. I just signed it."

    We all know how well Versailles stopped future conflict.

    But, so like the French to edge in on the glory.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,353
    edited June 17
    boulay said:


    Aaron Rupar
    @atrupar
    ·
    1m
    Trump: "It's signed. I signed it in Versailles. I just signed it."

    We all know how well Versailles stopped future conflict.

    But, so like the French to edge in on the glory.
    Wasn't it supposed to be Switzerland? Perhaps they didn't have a palace gaudy enough....
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,353
    "Point 6: Money for Iran reconstruction
    The sixth point of the MoU says the US and regional partners will develop a "definitive, mutually agreed plan" worth at least $300bn (£224bn) for reconstruction and economic development in Iran.
    The final mechanism will be agreed within 60 days of the final deal, and all licences, waivers and permissions will be granted by the US.
    However, this does not mean the US will be financially involved.
    One official noted that the US is not required to pay "a cent of money" to Iran, or contribute to the fund.
    As a hypothetical example, the official said that if Iran "behaves", Emirati authorities could build a power plant in Iran, with US blessing.
    Trump and other officials have gone to great lengths to make clear to the US public that it will not be paying Iran directly, which the administration says stands in stark contrast to the 2015 nuclear agreement between Iran and the Obama administration."

    So the stuff about Trump paying billions to Iran was guff?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,611
    Oh..


    Mikey Smith

    @mikeysmith
    Incredible coincidence that @nigel_Farage
    watched the England game in the same spot in the same pub, with the same flags up, wearing the same top and standing next to someone wearing an identical top as he did during the Euros in 2024.


    https://x.com/mikeysmith/status/2067377452331004179
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 28,927
    dixiedean said:

    viewcode said:

    carnforth said:

    Non-stop London to Sydney flights from next year!

    https://x.com/qantas/status/2067227199330300075

    Braver souls than I doing that in Economy or Premium Economy. I did 16 hours on China Airlines economy and almost threw a wobbly.
    Qantas are planning on having only 238 passengers, compared to 350-410 in a standard A350-1000, so it might not be as bad as you think.

    I'm guessing they don't want a dozen blood clot deaths in the first six months to scare people off.

    This Airbus webpage says there will be a "wellbeing zone" where passengers can stretch. https://www.airbus.com/en/newsroom/stories/2026-06-countdown-to-the-worlds-longest-commercial-flights-the-airbus-a350-1000ulr

    Still, 22 hours without being able to lie down would be pretty awful, but if it reduces the end-to-end travel time by eliminating a stopover it might be better overall.
    When I was hoping to and fro to NZ I used to do it in one go with 3-6 h in Singapore (usually). So about 22 h in economy with a decent break (shower, walk around etc). I usually tried to sleep as much as possible, especially on the second leg as you usually arrived in the morning.

    I wouldn’t see an issue with non-stop.
    I've done ~20-24 hours in a coach a few times (no idea what the seat pitch in those was) and I found it a real slog, because I wasn't able to sleep sitting mostly upright. And that had the benefit of occasional stops where you could get out and wander around.

    My wife pointed out that the 22-hour flight time is almost exactly the same as the new 21.5 hour ferry service from Cork to Boulogne, which would be a rather different experience (with the potential additional excitement of a run-in with the Russian navy). But then you're in Boulogne and not Sydney.
    I did the Caledonian Express last year. Boarded London 10:30pm, arrived Edinburgh 7:30am, detrained 8am. I may have mentioned it.

    :)
    Were you shot for using the term detrained?
    Yes. I was unalived.

    :)
  • The_WoodpeckerThe_Woodpecker Posts: 580

    carnforth said:

    Non-stop London to Sydney flights from next year!

    https://x.com/qantas/status/2067227199330300075

    Braver souls than I doing that in Economy or Premium Economy. I did 16 hours on China Airlines economy and almost threw a wobbly.
    Qantas are planning on having only 238 passengers, compared to 350-410 in a standard A350-1000, so it might not be as bad as you think.

    I'm guessing they don't want a dozen blood clot deaths in the first six months to scare people off.

    This Airbus webpage says there will be a "wellbeing zone" where passengers can stretch. https://www.airbus.com/en/newsroom/stories/2026-06-countdown-to-the-worlds-longest-commercial-flights-the-airbus-a350-1000ulr

    Still, 22 hours without being able to lie down would be pretty awful, but if it reduces the end-to-end travel time by eliminating a stopover it might be better overall.
    When I was hoping to and fro to NZ I used to do it in one go with 3-6 h in Singapore (usually). So about 22 h in economy with a decent break (shower, walk around etc). I usually tried to sleep as much as possible, especially on the second leg as you usually arrived in the morning.

    I wouldn’t see an issue with non-stop.
    I've done ~20-24 hours in a coach a few times (no idea what the seat pitch in those was) and I found it a real slog, because I wasn't able to sleep sitting mostly upright. And that had the benefit of occasional stops where you could get out and wander around.

    My wife pointed out that the 22-hour flight time is almost exactly the same as the new 21.5 hour ferry service from Cork to Boulogne, which would be a rather different experience (with the potential additional excitement of a run-in with the Russian navy). But then you're in Boulogne and not Sydney.
    They're both nice places. Slight edge to Sydney I guess. Except in football where USC Boulogne would thrash any of the Sydney clubs.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 90,023
    carnforth said:

    "Point 6: Money for Iran reconstruction
    The sixth point of the MoU says the US and regional partners will develop a "definitive, mutually agreed plan" worth at least $300bn (£224bn) for reconstruction and economic development in Iran.
    The final mechanism will be agreed within 60 days of the final deal, and all licences, waivers and permissions will be granted by the US.
    However, this does not mean the US will be financially involved.
    One official noted that the US is not required to pay "a cent of money" to Iran, or contribute to the fund.
    As a hypothetical example, the official said that if Iran "behaves", Emirati authorities could build a power plant in Iran, with US blessing.
    Trump and other officials have gone to great lengths to make clear to the US public that it will not be paying Iran directly, which the administration says stands in stark contrast to the 2015 nuclear agreement between Iran and the Obama administration."

    So the stuff about Trump paying billions to Iran was guff?

    Was it ?

    The agreement is all carrot and no stick. The only incentive for Iran to stick to it is for the US to adhere to the commitments it made.

    Trump's track record of "going to great lengths" to make something "very clear" is one of telling lies.

    And here he is letting slip the kind of leverage Iran had, and still has.

    Trump said the world would have run out of oil reserves in 4 weeks, put pressure for a peace agreement.

    Says it would have been "bedlam"

    https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/2067289063204217319

    I suspect a significant portion of that $300bn will get paid, one way or another.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 90,023
    Our government now has MoD civil servants lobbying against spending more in defence.
    Awkward for the new Defencd Secretary.

    "One of the best forms of deterrence is a strong economy"🗣️

    A top MOD official has warned that cuts to other government departments to fund defence could ultimately damage the UK's security

    https://x.com/ForcesNews/status/2067310053900665251
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 90,023
    Rubio unamused in the background.

    Trump: "If [the Iran deal] works out, I'm going to take the credit; if it doesn't work out, I'm blaming [Vance]."
    https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/2067294052370809311
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,581
    45 seconds on the visceral dislike of Keir Starmer:-
    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/WySZmPXEXZU
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,388
    I’m happy for England to ship the odd goal if we get that style of play . And of course if we continue to outscore the opponent!

    A very enjoyable game !
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 90,023
    edited 4:59AM
    Burnham team tell ministers to delay resignations to avoid chaos

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jun/17/exclusive-burnham-team-convince-ministers-delay-resignations-avoid-chaos
    ..Supporters of Burnham expect senior cabinet ministers to tell the prime minister over the weekend to agree to a handover of power, rather than fighting a bitter leadership contest that could stretch on for months.

    “We want to give Keir time and space to come to terms with the reality of his situation. Andy wants a managed transition. It’s what Labour MPs want. We need to keep the government on track,” a close Burnham ally said.

    “Andy won’t be launching an immediate challenge or laying down the gauntlet in the early hours of Friday or over the weekend. He wants it to be as bloodless as possible.”

    The Guardian can reveal that Burnham met Wes Streeting in secret – a putative leadership rival even though many MPs remain sceptical he has the numbers – in Makerfield on Monday. Aides denied there had been a Granita-style pact over the timing of any contest.

    The pair had independently come to the view that Starmer should be given time to reflect on his position, they said. “No deals were done,” one source said.


    Starmer has said he expects to talk to Burnham “after the weekend”. But close allies of the Labour mayor warned that clinging on to power for more than a few weeks would result in Burnham triggering a contest.

    “We would rather this happens in a dignified and respectful way. There are big challenges facing the country so it would be much better … But if he digs in at Downing Street then we’ll force him out,” a senior campaign figure said..
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 28,908
    Nigelb said:

    Burnham team tell ministers to delay resignations to avoid chaos

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jun/17/exclusive-burnham-team-convince-ministers-delay-resignations-avoid-chaos
    ..Supporters of Burnham expect senior cabinet ministers to tell the prime minister over the weekend to agree to a handover of power, rather than fighting a bitter leadership contest that could stretch on for months.

    “We want to give Keir time and space to come to terms with the reality of his situation. Andy wants a managed transition. It’s what Labour MPs want. We need to keep the government on track,” a close Burnham ally said.

    “Andy won’t be launching an immediate challenge or laying down the gauntlet in the early hours of Friday or over the weekend. He wants it to be as bloodless as possible.”

    The Guardian can reveal that Burnham met Wes Streeting in secret – a putative leadership rival even though many MPs remain sceptical he has the numbers – in Makerfield on Monday. Aides denied there had been a Granita-style pact over the timing of any contest.

    The pair had independently come to the view that Starmer should be given time to reflect on his position, they said. “No deals were done,” one source said.


    Starmer has said he expects to talk to Burnham “after the weekend”. But close allies of the Labour mayor warned that clinging on to power for more than a few weeks would result in Burnham triggering a contest.

    “We would rather this happens in a dignified and respectful way. There are big challenges facing the country so it would be much better … But if he digs in at Downing Street then we’ll force him out,” a senior campaign figure said..

    FFS Labour he's had months already.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,966

    Nigelb said:

    Burnham team tell ministers to delay resignations to avoid chaos

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jun/17/exclusive-burnham-team-convince-ministers-delay-resignations-avoid-chaos
    ..Supporters of Burnham expect senior cabinet ministers to tell the prime minister over the weekend to agree to a handover of power, rather than fighting a bitter leadership contest that could stretch on for months.

    “We want to give Keir time and space to come to terms with the reality of his situation. Andy wants a managed transition. It’s what Labour MPs want. We need to keep the government on track,” a close Burnham ally said.

    “Andy won’t be launching an immediate challenge or laying down the gauntlet in the early hours of Friday or over the weekend. He wants it to be as bloodless as possible.”

    The Guardian can reveal that Burnham met Wes Streeting in secret – a putative leadership rival even though many MPs remain sceptical he has the numbers – in Makerfield on Monday. Aides denied there had been a Granita-style pact over the timing of any contest.

    The pair had independently come to the view that Starmer should be given time to reflect on his position, they said. “No deals were done,” one source said.


    Starmer has said he expects to talk to Burnham “after the weekend”. But close allies of the Labour mayor warned that clinging on to power for more than a few weeks would result in Burnham triggering a contest.

    “We would rather this happens in a dignified and respectful way. There are big challenges facing the country so it would be much better … But if he digs in at Downing Street then we’ll force him out,” a senior campaign figure said..

    FFS Labour he's had months already.
    Good morning, everyone.

    Agree entirely. Starmer won't go unless he's pushed. Ultimatum, then immediate challenge if he doesn't go. Otherwise it's prevarication verging on bottling.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 3,387

    carnforth said:

    Non-stop London to Sydney flights from next year!

    https://x.com/qantas/status/2067227199330300075

    Braver souls than I doing that in Economy or Premium Economy. I did 16 hours on China Airlines economy and almost threw a wobbly.
    Qantas are planning on having only 238 passengers, compared to 350-410 in a standard A350-1000, so it might not be as bad as you think.

    I'm guessing they don't want a dozen blood clot deaths in the first six months to scare people off.

    This Airbus webpage says there will be a "wellbeing zone" where passengers can stretch. https://www.airbus.com/en/newsroom/stories/2026-06-countdown-to-the-worlds-longest-commercial-flights-the-airbus-a350-1000ulr

    Still, 22 hours without being able to lie down would be pretty awful, but if it reduces the end-to-end travel time by eliminating a stopover it might be better overall.
    My Australian family who pop over to the UK now and again, call it the sardine can. Me - can't do more than 8 hours without wanting to go postal.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,378
    ...
    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    My prediction for tomorrow's by-elections

    Aberdeen South -> Con gain from SNP
    Arbroath & Broughton Ferry -> SNP hold (with strong Ref UK performance)
    Makerfield -> very narrow Lab hold

    Makerfield: comfortable Burnham win

    Aberdeen South, Arbroath and Broughton Ferry both SNP holds against very split opposition.
    I'd agree on Burnham. Haven't been following the other two enough.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,388
    You couldn’t pay me enough to sit on a plane for a straight 22 hours . Even First Class would be a stretch , I can’t sleep on planes and like to do my oblutions in peace with my own en suite !
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,378
    Nigelb said:

    Our government now has MoD civil servants lobbying against spending more in defence.
    Awkward for the new Defencd Secretary.

    "One of the best forms of deterrence is a strong economy"🗣️

    A top MOD official has warned that cuts to other government departments to fund defence could ultimately damage the UK's security

    https://x.com/ForcesNews/status/2067310053900665251

    His testimony sounds utterly pathetic. Get rid.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 90,023
    Nigelb said:

    carnforth said:

    "Point 6: Money for Iran reconstruction
    The sixth point of the MoU says the US and regional partners will develop a "definitive, mutually agreed plan" worth at least $300bn (£224bn) for reconstruction and economic development in Iran.
    The final mechanism will be agreed within 60 days of the final deal, and all licences, waivers and permissions will be granted by the US.
    However, this does not mean the US will be financially involved.
    One official noted that the US is not required to pay "a cent of money" to Iran, or contribute to the fund.
    As a hypothetical example, the official said that if Iran "behaves", Emirati authorities could build a power plant in Iran, with US blessing.
    Trump and other officials have gone to great lengths to make clear to the US public that it will not be paying Iran directly, which the administration says stands in stark contrast to the 2015 nuclear agreement between Iran and the Obama administration."

    So the stuff about Trump paying billions to Iran was guff?

    Was it ?

    The agreement is all carrot and no stick. The only incentive for Iran to stick to it is for the US to adhere to the commitments it made.

    Trump's track record of "going to great lengths" to make something "very clear" is one of telling lies.

    And here he is letting slip the kind of leverage Iran had, and still has.

    Trump said the world would have run out of oil reserves in 4 weeks, put pressure for a peace agreement.

    Says it would have been "bedlam"

    https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/2067289063204217319

    I suspect a significant portion of that $300bn will get paid, one way or another.
    Just to be clear, this is a dreadful deal for the US, but it's still preferable to continuing the misguided and poorly planned war.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,552
    Hormuz shipping looks like it’s getting back to normal.

    https://x.com/marionawfal/status/2067381428711797210?s=61

    The MOU is signed and Israel, who started this conflict, is currently the big loser.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,552
    nico67 said:

    You couldn’t pay me enough to sit on a plane for a straight 22 hours . Even First Class would be a stretch , I can’t sleep on planes and like to do my oblutions in peace with my own en suite !

    At least in first class you’d be able to stretch.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,536
    Good luck to Andy Burnham today.

    We need somebody who can take on Reform and prevent them getting power.

    Starmer is clearly not up to that task.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 3,387
    Texas is getting its own Stock Exchange - Y'all Street.

    https://www.txse.com/
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,898
    carnforth said:

    "Point 6: Money for Iran reconstruction
    The sixth point of the MoU says the US and regional partners will develop a "definitive, mutually agreed plan" worth at least $300bn (£224bn) for reconstruction and economic development in Iran.
    The final mechanism will be agreed within 60 days of the final deal, and all licences, waivers and permissions will be granted by the US.
    However, this does not mean the US will be financially involved.
    One official noted that the US is not required to pay "a cent of money" to Iran, or contribute to the fund.
    As a hypothetical example, the official said that if Iran "behaves", Emirati authorities could build a power plant in Iran, with US blessing.
    Trump and other officials have gone to great lengths to make clear to the US public that it will not be paying Iran directly, which the administration says stands in stark contrast to the 2015 nuclear agreement between Iran and the Obama administration."

    So the stuff about Trump paying billions to Iran was guff?

    Well the Emirati authorities definitely won’t see it that way around. They have a lot of frozen Iranian assets, and will first use them to cover their own costs of the Iranian invasion of the UAE.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,755
    Well done England, we enjoyed the match.

    The Times - Granite city dismay at ‘empty promises’ puts by-election up for grabs
    'Every voter interviewed by a focus group in Aberdeen South prioritised oil and gas, which the Conservatives are hoping will steer them to victory'
    https://www.thetimes.com/article/9bfa3ee6-eed0-409c-bd52-2f244bc840b0?shareToken=ef84e901d55d0fa066eaa30daf9139b3
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,831
    nico67 said:

    I’m happy for England to ship the odd goal if we get that style of play . And of course if we continue to outscore the opponent!

    A very enjoyable game !

    I'm still not altogether sure about Tuchel, but there was an elan about that performance that we never saw with Southgate.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,552

    Good luck to Andy Burnham today.

    We need somebody who can take on Reform and prevent them getting power.

    Starmer is clearly not up to that task.

    You reckon Burnham is ?

    I hope he is but I just think he’s a more charismatic version of Starmer.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,378
    Taz said:

    Good luck to Andy Burnham today.

    We need somebody who can take on Reform and prevent them getting power.

    Starmer is clearly not up to that task.

    You reckon Burnham is ?

    I hope he is but I just think he’s a more charismatic version of Starmer.
    I don't think he's up to it. But Starmer has got to go.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 37,107
    Polling brisk yet?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 66,756

    Good luck to Andy Burnham today.

    We need somebody who can take on Reform and prevent them getting power.

    Starmer is clearly not up to that task.

    Kemi Badenoch.
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 1,390

    Nigelb said:

    Our government now has MoD civil servants lobbying against spending more in defence.
    Awkward for the new Defencd Secretary.

    "One of the best forms of deterrence is a strong economy"🗣️

    A top MOD official has warned that cuts to other government departments to fund defence could ultimately damage the UK's security

    https://x.com/ForcesNews/status/2067310053900665251

    His testimony sounds utterly pathetic. Get rid.
    If he's said that during a Select Committee then it'll be because it's the government line that he's duty bound to follow. You should direct your ire towards the government not the Civil Servsnt.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 21,184
    Sandpit said:

    So, for the political betting angle, does England’s win tonight help Burnham, Reform, or Restore, in Makerfield?

    And what does England winning do for the by-elections in Scotland?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,898
    Happy Day 3 of Moscow oil refinery being on fire!

    https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/2067482310006411769

    Nice top hat on that storage tank.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 4,123
    It will be amusing if Burnham gets close to the %age he got in the last mayoralty election after all the Twitter experts telling me 'he's not even that popular' and the endless tedious podcasts.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,078

    Sandpit said:

    So, for the political betting angle, does England’s win tonight help Burnham, Reform, or Restore, in Makerfield?

    And what does England winning do for the by-elections in Scotland?
    Sod all any more than Scotland winning did, the Aberdeen S by election depends entirely on how much the Tories can squeeze Reform to beat the SNP while the Makerfield by election in large part depends on how much Restore take from Reform
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 21,184
    Fake news is surging in local Ashton in Makerfield Facebook groups and misinformation has quadrupled as a share of news posts

    Analysis by the Social Market Foundation found that one in six news items shared in the groups during the campaign is false, with misinformation heavily targeting Andy Burnham

    Their analysis found that all of the misinformation in local Facebook was anti-Labour or pro-Reform in nature (except for one piece that related to 5G conspiracies).


    https://aboutmanchester.co.uk/fake-news-is-surging-in-makerfield-by-election/
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,552

    Polling brisk yet?

    It is in Dunny-on-the-Wold
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,552

    Fake news is surging in local Ashton in Makerfield Facebook groups and misinformation has quadrupled as a share of news posts

    Analysis by the Social Market Foundation found that one in six news items shared in the groups during the campaign is false, with misinformation heavily targeting Andy Burnham

    Their analysis found that all of the misinformation in local Facebook was anti-Labour or pro-Reform in nature (except for one piece that related to 5G conspiracies).


    https://aboutmanchester.co.uk/fake-news-is-surging-in-makerfield-by-election/

    So we need to trust this foundation as to what makes fake news ?

    As trustworthy as BBC Verify
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 57,012

    Sandpit said:

    Happy Day 3 of Moscow oil refinery being on fire!

    https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/2067482310006411769

    Nice top hat on that storage tank.

    I think the photo is worth sharing on here.


    I would guess this photo will get used in plenty of places as the definitive image of Ukraine's campaign against Russian oil infrastructure.
    That flying saucer looks about to crash...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,898
    edited 6:33AM

    Sandpit said:

    Happy Day 3 of Moscow oil refinery being on fire!

    https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/2067482310006411769

    Nice top hat on that storage tank.

    I think the photo is worth sharing on here.


    I would guess this photo will get used in plenty of places as the definitive image of Ukraine's campaign against Russian oil infrastructure.
    It’s a pretty good picture, and there’s video too!

    https://x.com/tendar/status/2067456010025918789
    https://x.com/tendar/status/2067462120120189002

    There’s at least four or five large fires at the site now, looks somewhat apocalyptic.

    https://x.com/bohuslavskakate/status/2067449379816902726
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 57,012

    nico67 said:

    I’m happy for England to ship the odd goal if we get that style of play . And of course if we continue to outscore the opponent!

    A very enjoyable game !

    I'm still not altogether sure about Tuchel, but there was an elan about that performance that we never saw with Southgate.
    Not just the England match either.

    Hopefully we see the demise of endless slow sideways and back passing. Ultimately fans need some entertainment.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 6,371
    Taz said:

    Good luck to Andy Burnham today.

    We need somebody who can take on Reform and prevent them getting power.

    Starmer is clearly not up to that task.

    You reckon Burnham is ?

    I hope he is but I just think he’s a more charismatic version of Starmer.
    It depends if you prefer a former quangocrat with no answers to this country's problems or a professional politician with seven answers to each of this country's problems depending on the time of day.

    The 2020s here really are the definition of a lost decade.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 90,023
    edited 6:39AM
    Stereodog said:

    Nigelb said:

    Our government now has MoD civil servants lobbying against spending more in defence.
    Awkward for the new Defencd Secretary.

    "One of the best forms of deterrence is a strong economy"🗣️

    A top MOD official has warned that cuts to other government departments to fund defence could ultimately damage the UK's security

    https://x.com/ForcesNews/status/2067310053900665251

    His testimony sounds utterly pathetic. Get rid.
    If he's said that during a Select Committee then it'll be because it's the government line that he's duty bound to follow. You should direct your ire towards the government not the Civil Servsnt.
    Yes, that's the point.
    The new minister doesn't have the balls either to stand up to Starmer/Reeves, Or to announce his surrender himself.

    Feeble stuff from a former Para.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 64,567
    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Happy Day 3 of Moscow oil refinery being on fire!

    https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/2067482310006411769

    Nice top hat on that storage tank.

    I think the photo is worth sharing on here.


    I would guess this photo will get used in plenty of places as the definitive image of Ukraine's campaign against Russian oil infrastructure.
    That flying saucer looks about to crash...
    It's surely cheating for the Ukrainians to have enlisted actual aliens to fight alongside them.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,448
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Happy Day 3 of Moscow oil refinery being on fire!

    https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/2067482310006411769

    Nice top hat on that storage tank.

    I think the photo is worth sharing on here.


    I would guess this photo will get used in plenty of places as the definitive image of Ukraine's campaign against Russian oil infrastructure.
    It’s a pretty good picture, and there’s video too!

    https://x.com/tendar/status/2067456010025918789
    https://x.com/tendar/status/2067462120120189002

    There’s at least four or five large fires at the site now, looks somewhat apocalyptic.

    https://x.com/bohuslavskakate/status/2067449379816902726
    Yes, and this refinery is only 16km (10 miles) from Red Square. Not far at all.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 25,576

    Sandpit said:

    Happy Day 3 of Moscow oil refinery being on fire!

    https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/2067482310006411769

    Nice top hat on that storage tank.

    I think the photo is worth sharing on here.


    I would guess this photo will get used in plenty of places as the definitive image of Ukraine's campaign against Russian oil infrastructure.
    That's a very large bursting disc.

    Some junior engineer must have mixed up mm and metres doing the data sheet.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 25,576

    Good luck to Andy Burnham today.

    We need somebody who can take on Reform and prevent them getting power.

    Starmer is clearly not up to that task.

    Kemi Badenoch.
    Rupert Lowe
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 64,567

    Taz said:

    Good luck to Andy Burnham today.

    We need somebody who can take on Reform and prevent them getting power.

    Starmer is clearly not up to that task.

    You reckon Burnham is ?

    I hope he is but I just think he’s a more charismatic version of Starmer.
    I don't think he's up to it. But Starmer has got to go.
    Starmer is herpes.

    Burnham is syphilis.

    You don't really want either, but if you have to choose...
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 21,184
    This is a nice graphic on immigration (but doesn’t cover the UK): https://ourworldindata.org/where-do-migrants-live-and-where-were-they-born
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 90,023
    It looks as though China might have been better prepared for Trump's war than was Trump (or us).

    Fascinating argument by Bloomberg's top energy analyst Javier Blas 👇: he argues that China effectively saved the world economy during the Iran war by absorbing the brunt of the global oil supply shock on its own, without visible economic damage.

    According to his calculations, China "cut its average daily waterborne oil imports by the same amount as the combined oil consumption of Germany, France and the UK."

    And, still according to Blas, they "did so without suffering economic harm" because they could rely on many levers: their huge strategic petroleum reserve, a massive surge in EV usage, their remaining coal-fired electricity capacity, and coal-to-chemicals replacing lost feedstocks...

    https://x.com/RnaudBertrand/status/2067153947257930227
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,448
    Nigelb said:

    It looks as though China might have been better prepared for Trump's war than was Trump (or us).

    Fascinating argument by Bloomberg's top energy analyst Javier Blas 👇: he argues that China effectively saved the world economy during the Iran war by absorbing the brunt of the global oil supply shock on its own, without visible economic damage.

    According to his calculations, China "cut its average daily waterborne oil imports by the same amount as the combined oil consumption of Germany, France and the UK."

    And, still according to Blas, they "did so without suffering economic harm" because they could rely on many levers: their huge strategic petroleum reserve, a massive surge in EV usage, their remaining coal-fired electricity capacity, and coal-to-chemicals replacing lost feedstocks...

    https://x.com/RnaudBertrand/status/2067153947257930227

    Confidence in geopolitics seems to be a dangerous thing. I hope that Chinese confidence following the humiliation of the US, and their own preparedness, doesn't encourage them to do something stupid and dangerous.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,448

    Sandpit said:

    Happy Day 3 of Moscow oil refinery being on fire!

    https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/2067482310006411769

    Nice top hat on that storage tank.

    I think the photo is worth sharing on here.


    I would guess this photo will get used in plenty of places as the definitive image of Ukraine's campaign against Russian oil infrastructure.
    That's a very large bursting disc.

    Some junior engineer must have mixed up mm and metres doing the data sheet.
    I guess if the top hadn't blown off the main force of the explosion would have gone sideways - into neighbouring oil tanks.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,536

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Happy Day 3 of Moscow oil refinery being on fire!

    https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/2067482310006411769

    Nice top hat on that storage tank.

    I think the photo is worth sharing on here.


    I would guess this photo will get used in plenty of places as the definitive image of Ukraine's campaign against Russian oil infrastructure.
    It’s a pretty good picture, and there’s video too!

    https://x.com/tendar/status/2067456010025918789
    https://x.com/tendar/status/2067462120120189002

    There’s at least four or five large fires at the site now, looks somewhat apocalyptic.

    https://x.com/bohuslavskakate/status/2067449379816902726
    Yes, and this refinery is only 16km (10 miles) from Red Square. Not far at all.
    More at risk must be St. Basils, given the Russians trashed the Kyiv Cathedral.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,448

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Happy Day 3 of Moscow oil refinery being on fire!

    https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/2067482310006411769

    Nice top hat on that storage tank.

    I think the photo is worth sharing on here.


    I would guess this photo will get used in plenty of places as the definitive image of Ukraine's campaign against Russian oil infrastructure.
    It’s a pretty good picture, and there’s video too!

    https://x.com/tendar/status/2067456010025918789
    https://x.com/tendar/status/2067462120120189002

    There’s at least four or five large fires at the site now, looks somewhat apocalyptic.

    https://x.com/bohuslavskakate/status/2067449379816902726
    Yes, and this refinery is only 16km (10 miles) from Red Square. Not far at all.
    More at risk must be St. Basils, given the Russians trashed the Kyiv Cathedral.
    I think Ukraine will keep targeting the oil, military-industrial and logistics targets.

    A destroyed oil refinery is more consequential for the progress of the war than a cathedral.

    Though Russian air defences did intercept some Ukrainian drones, debris from which started a fire at a large shopping centre. So it's always possible for other locations to get hit in the crossfire.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,966
    F1: mentioned a day or two ago but Norris at 11 each way in Austria is worth considering.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,898

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Happy Day 3 of Moscow oil refinery being on fire!

    https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/2067482310006411769

    Nice top hat on that storage tank.

    I think the photo is worth sharing on here.


    I would guess this photo will get used in plenty of places as the definitive image of Ukraine's campaign against Russian oil infrastructure.
    It’s a pretty good picture, and there’s video too!

    https://x.com/tendar/status/2067456010025918789
    https://x.com/tendar/status/2067462120120189002

    There’s at least four or five large fires at the site now, looks somewhat apocalyptic.

    https://x.com/bohuslavskakate/status/2067449379816902726
    Yes, and this refinery is only 16km (10 miles) from Red Square. Not far at all.
    More at risk must be St. Basils, given the Russians trashed the Kyiv Cathedral.
    The difference between the two sides, is that one side hits oil refiners and weapons factories, while the other hits churches and malls.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 43,599
    @cruickshank.bsky.social‬

    Today's Ukrainian drone attack on the Moscow Oil Refinery is causing so much smoke that you can see it using low-resolution geostationary weather satellites.

    https://bsky.app/profile/cruickshank.bsky.social/post/3mok7hjzdmk2c
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 46,537

    Ummm..



    This appears to be real…?

    look at the state of those weeds , lazy barsteward with no personal pride
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 43,599
    @duncanweldon.bsky.social‬

    The really basic & incredibly obvious lesson of Russia-Ukraine and Israel/US-Iran is that wars are hard and unpredictable. Even when one side appears to have a clear initial advantage.

    https://bsky.app/profile/duncanweldon.bsky.social/post/3mok76xk63s2d
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 1,390
    Nigelb said:

    Stereodog said:

    Nigelb said:

    Our government now has MoD civil servants lobbying against spending more in defence.
    Awkward for the new Defencd Secretary.

    "One of the best forms of deterrence is a strong economy"🗣️

    A top MOD official has warned that cuts to other government departments to fund defence could ultimately damage the UK's security

    https://x.com/ForcesNews/status/2067310053900665251

    His testimony sounds utterly pathetic. Get rid.
    If he's said that during a Select Committee then it'll be because it's the government line that he's duty bound to follow. You should direct your ire towards the government not the Civil Servsnt.
    Yes, that's the point.
    The new minister doesn't have the balls either to stand up to Starmer/Reeves, Or to announce his surrender himself.

    Feeble stuff from a former Para.
    I had a look at the Committee website and this was part of the Committee's inquiry into SDR Implementation. It's normal during an inquiry to hold multiple sessions where you hear from groups of stakeholders at a time. One panel of officials, another of academics etc and then the final one is usually with ministers. So it's not improper that the official is out there giving evidence but none the less they can't stray from the policy they're being asked to implement by the government. I haven't watched the session but normally questions will be around how the department is implementing that policy rather than asking for comment on thr policy itself, although politicians will often ask a cheeky question to try and catch a Civil Servant out.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 46,537
    Andy_JS said:

    My prediction for tomorrow's by-elections

    Aberdeen South -> Con gain from SNP
    Arbroath & Broughton Ferry -> SNP hold (with strong Ref UK performance)
    Makerfield -> very narrow Lab hold

    2 out of 3 is not bad Andy
  • RattersRatters Posts: 2,041
    Taz said:

    Hormuz shipping looks like it’s getting back to normal.

    https://x.com/marionawfal/status/2067381428711797210?s=61

    The MOU is signed and Israel, who started this conflict, is currently the big loser.

    One potentially big winner is everyone else (in the long-term, once oil is flowing again).

    Trump obviously got a taste for foreign military adventures in Venezuela. It was easy and got the result he wanted.

    With Iran showing that weaker countries can cause asymmetric harm, perhaps he will pivot to other interests. Cuba is probably the one exception as it's sufficiently close to the US and small so doesn't pose the same threat.

    Likewise, the GCC needs to recognise its own weakness on relying on a narrow Strait and build 10x its current pipeline and shipping facilities via another route.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,448
    The below link is to a video showing a Ukrainian FP-1 drone approaching the Moscow oil refinery. Air defences can be seen trying, and failing, twice to shoot it down, before the drone hits its target.

    https://t.me/noel_reports/47960
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,966
    Greater chance than ever of Trump going after Cuba, chasing a win after this self-inflicted debacle.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 25,576
    Nigelb said:

    Burnham team tell ministers to delay resignations to avoid chaos

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jun/17/exclusive-burnham-team-convince-ministers-delay-resignations-avoid-chaos
    ..Supporters of Burnham expect senior cabinet ministers to tell the prime minister over the weekend to agree to a handover of power, rather than fighting a bitter leadership contest that could stretch on for months.

    “We want to give Keir time and space to come to terms with the reality of his situation. Andy wants a managed transition. It’s what Labour MPs want. We need to keep the government on track,” a close Burnham ally said.

    “Andy won’t be launching an immediate challenge or laying down the gauntlet in the early hours of Friday or over the weekend. He wants it to be as bloodless as possible.”

    The Guardian can reveal that Burnham met Wes Streeting in secret – a putative leadership rival even though many MPs remain sceptical he has the numbers – in Makerfield on Monday. Aides denied there had been a Granita-style pact over the timing of any contest.

    The pair had independently come to the view that Starmer should be given time to reflect on his position, they said. “No deals were done,” one source said.


    Starmer has said he expects to talk to Burnham “after the weekend”. But close allies of the Labour mayor warned that clinging on to power for more than a few weeks would result in Burnham triggering a contest.

    “We would rather this happens in a dignified and respectful way. There are big challenges facing the country so it would be much better … But if he digs in at Downing Street then we’ll force him out,” a senior campaign figure said..

    No, he ain't arrogant. Not one little bit.

    Come on voters of Makerfield - you've got a chance to burst his bubble.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 59,100
    malcolmg said:

    Andy_JS said:

    My prediction for tomorrow's by-elections

    Aberdeen South -> Con gain from SNP
    Arbroath & Broughton Ferry -> SNP hold (with strong Ref UK performance)
    Makerfield -> very narrow Lab hold

    2 out of 3 is not bad Andy
    I would say

    Aberdeen South close SNP hold.
    Arbroath and Broughty Ferry easy SNP hold
    Makerfield easy Labour win by 5k+
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