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Why the polls might be underestimating Burnham – politicalbetting.com

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  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,517
    Great second half.

    And not one yellow card the whole match?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 57,010
    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    4:2 they think its all over...

    It is now!
    That is a formidable forward line but defence needs work. We need a tighter defence in the knock out stages.

    3 points are a great start. Croatia faded fast, that pressing game was unsustainable, and England kept the energy.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,360
    DavidL said:

    Just be careful nothing weird happens in the showers. It is Dallas after all.

    Greatest retcon ever.

    I hope whoever is making Dr Who next has the same idea. Maybe Captain Jack in the shower?
  • boulayboulay Posts: 9,003

    4-2!

    Rashford!

    I find it such an odd thing to type as a Liverpool fan but I would love Liverpool to sign Rashford to replace Gakpo. Now I need to go to therapy.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,300
    edited June 17
    My prediction for tomorrow's by-elections

    Aberdeen South -> Con gain from SNP
    Arbroath & Broughton Ferry -> SNP hold (with strong Ref UK performance)
    Makerfield -> very narrow Lab hold
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,894
    So, for the political betting angle, does England’s win tonight help Burnham, Reform, or Restore, in Makerfield?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 57,010
    Andy_JS said:

    My prediction for tomorrow's by-elections

    Aberdeen South -> Con gain from SNP
    Arbroath & Broughton Ferry -> SNP hold (with strong Ref UK performance)
    Makerfield -> very narrow Lab hold

    Makerfield: comfortable Burnham win

    Aberdeen South, Arbroath and Broughton Ferry both SNP holds against very split opposition.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 9,645
    edited June 17
    Sandpit said:

    So, for the political betting angle, does England’s win tonight help Burnham, Reform, or Restore, in Makerfield?

    Burnham. The others would probably want to deport Rashford to somewhere.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,360
    Sandpit said:

    So, for the political betting angle, does England’s win tonight help Burnham, Reform, or Restore, in Makerfield?

    Labour don’t tend to like the cross of St George, so there’s that.
  • Burnham majority of 5000
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,360

    Burnham majority of 5000

    You have to wonder about turnout. Will people be arsed?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,360
    And will polling be ‘brisk’?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,300

    And will polling be ‘brisk’?

    Undoubtedly.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,438
    carnforth said:

    Non-stop London to Sydney flights from next year!

    https://x.com/qantas/status/2067227199330300075

    Braver souls than I doing that in Economy or Premium Economy. I did 16 hours on China Airlines economy and almost threw a wobbly.
    Qantas are planning on having only 238 passengers, compared to 350-410 in a standard A350-1000, so it might not be as bad as you think.

    I'm guessing they don't want a dozen blood clot deaths in the first six months to scare people off.

    This Airbus webpage says there will be a "wellbeing zone" where passengers can stretch. https://www.airbus.com/en/newsroom/stories/2026-06-countdown-to-the-worlds-longest-commercial-flights-the-airbus-a350-1000ulr

    Still, 22 hours without being able to lie down would be pretty awful, but if it reduces the end-to-end travel time by eliminating a stopover it might be better overall.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 22,067
    Are they counting Makerfield overnight?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,360

    carnforth said:

    Non-stop London to Sydney flights from next year!

    https://x.com/qantas/status/2067227199330300075

    Braver souls than I doing that in Economy or Premium Economy. I did 16 hours on China Airlines economy and almost threw a wobbly.
    Qantas are planning on having only 238 passengers, compared to 350-410 in a standard A350-1000, so it might not be as bad as you think.

    I'm guessing they don't want a dozen blood clot deaths in the first six months to scare people off.

    This Airbus webpage says there will be a "wellbeing zone" where passengers can stretch. https://www.airbus.com/en/newsroom/stories/2026-06-countdown-to-the-worlds-longest-commercial-flights-the-airbus-a350-1000ulr

    Still, 22 hours without being able to lie down would be pretty awful, but if it reduces the end-to-end travel time by eliminating a stopover it might be better overall.
    When I was hoping to and fro to NZ I used to do it in one go with 3-6 h in Singapore (usually). So about 22 h in economy with a decent break (shower, walk around etc). I usually tried to sleep as much as possible, especially on the second leg as you usually arrived in the morning.

    I wouldn’t see an issue with non-stop.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,438
    Sandpit said:

    So, for the political betting angle, does England’s win tonight help Burnham, Reform, or Restore, in Makerfield?

    Optimism should help Burnham, as that is his pitch.
  • By the end of this year, Labour will have recorded a poll lead. Come back and tell
    Me.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,360

    By the end of this year, Labour will have recorded a poll lead. Come back and tell
    Me.

    We won’t have to - you will surely tell us! :D
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,438
    edited June 17

    carnforth said:

    Non-stop London to Sydney flights from next year!

    https://x.com/qantas/status/2067227199330300075

    Braver souls than I doing that in Economy or Premium Economy. I did 16 hours on China Airlines economy and almost threw a wobbly.
    Qantas are planning on having only 238 passengers, compared to 350-410 in a standard A350-1000, so it might not be as bad as you think.

    I'm guessing they don't want a dozen blood clot deaths in the first six months to scare people off.

    This Airbus webpage says there will be a "wellbeing zone" where passengers can stretch. https://www.airbus.com/en/newsroom/stories/2026-06-countdown-to-the-worlds-longest-commercial-flights-the-airbus-a350-1000ulr

    Still, 22 hours without being able to lie down would be pretty awful, but if it reduces the end-to-end travel time by eliminating a stopover it might be better overall.
    When I was hoping to and fro to NZ I used to do it in one go with 3-6 h in Singapore (usually). So about 22 h in economy with a decent break (shower, walk around etc). I usually tried to sleep as much as possible, especially on the second leg as you usually arrived in the morning.

    I wouldn’t see an issue with non-stop.
    I've done ~20-24 hours in a coach a few times (no idea what the seat pitch in those was) and I found it a real slog, because I wasn't able to sleep sitting mostly upright. And that had the benefit of occasional stops where you could get out and wander around.

    My wife pointed out that the 22-hour flight time is almost exactly the same as the new 21.5 hour ferry service from Cork to Boulogne, which would be a rather different experience (with the potential additional excitement of a run-in with the Russian navy). But then you're in Boulogne and not Sydney.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 90,009

    DavidL said:

    Did you ever wake up, kiss the person sleeping beside you and feel glad you're alive?

    I did.

    Can’t fly with QANTAS any more though.

    This morning actually.
    Lucky you.

    I absolutely got bodied my eldest son recently.

    He's doing his exams and we were talking about his future, and I told him his grandparents might want him to have an arranged marriage, my son's response was

    'I might go for that, they've been married for over 50 years, you've not had a relationship that's lasted more than 5 years.'
    I don't think Big_G or Old King C have arranged marriages ?
    They seem to have done OK.

    (37 yrs and counting, myself.)

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,611
    Andy_JS said:

    My prediction for tomorrow's by-elections

    Aberdeen South -> Con gain from SNP
    Arbroath & Broughton Ferry -> SNP hold (with strong Ref UK performance)
    Makerfield -> very narrow Lab hold

    On the first I am on at 2.9

    They seemed to have drifted to 3.7

  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,438
    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Did you ever wake up, kiss the person sleeping beside you and feel glad you're alive?

    I did.

    Can’t fly with QANTAS any more though.

    This morning actually.
    Lucky you.

    I absolutely got bodied my eldest son recently.

    He's doing his exams and we were talking about his future, and I told him his grandparents might want him to have an arranged marriage, my son's response was

    'I might go for that, they've been married for over 50 years, you've not had a relationship that's lasted more than 5 years.'
    I don't think Big_G or Old King C have arranged marriages ?
    They seem to have done OK.

    (37 yrs and counting, myself.)

    My wife [of nearly twelve years] told me earlier today that she's too tired to be able to complete the divorce paperwork. I think she intended for me to find that reassuring (!)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,300
    "The Plaid Cymru-led Welsh Government has failed to back the UK’s membership of Nato.

    Elin Jones, the country’s finance minister, declined to say whether the minority Welsh Government supported the military alliance when asked to do so by Jo Stevens, the Welsh Secretary.

    Labour has accused Plaid of being “completely irresponsible” by failing to set out its position on Nato at a time of significant geopolitical instability."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/06/17/plaid-cymru-fails-to-back-britains-nato-membership
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,656

    Burnham majority of 5000

    You have to wonder about turnout. Will people be arsed?
    Why wouldn't you. It's the most consequential thing to happen in Makerfield in my lifetime.
    Although the Grateful Dead at the Bickershaw Festival comes close.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,656

    Are they counting Makerfield overnight?

    Yes.
    4 to 5am result expected.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,611
    edited June 17
    James Carville on Trump: “I genuinely think he will resign next spring."

    "The son of a bitch is just gonna walk away"

    https://x.com/MarcoFoster_/status/2067353082350932260

    Carville theory is he wont be able to cope with the midterm consequences plus health issues and will do a deal with Vance for a pardon of Trump and all family and associates. Otherwise he is relying on self-pardon.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,611

    Aaron Rupar
    @atrupar
    ·
    1m
    Trump: "It's signed. I signed it in Versailles. I just signed it."
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,534


    Aaron Rupar
    @atrupar
    ·
    1m
    Trump: "It's signed. I signed it in Versailles. I just signed it."

    So - another World War within 20 years?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,300
    edited June 17
    Watching the Panama v Ghana match, England probably won't feel too perturbed by anything that's happened so far.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,353

    carnforth said:

    Non-stop London to Sydney flights from next year!

    https://x.com/qantas/status/2067227199330300075

    Braver souls than I doing that in Economy or Premium Economy. I did 16 hours on China Airlines economy and almost threw a wobbly.
    Qantas are planning on having only 238 passengers, compared to 350-410 in a standard A350-1000, so it might not be as bad as you think.

    I'm guessing they don't want a dozen blood clot deaths in the first six months to scare people off.

    This Airbus webpage says there will be a "wellbeing zone" where passengers can stretch. https://www.airbus.com/en/newsroom/stories/2026-06-countdown-to-the-worlds-longest-commercial-flights-the-airbus-a350-1000ulr

    Still, 22 hours without being able to lie down would be pretty awful, but if it reduces the end-to-end travel time by eliminating a stopover it might be better overall.
    When I was hoping to and fro to NZ I used to do it in one go with 3-6 h in Singapore (usually). So about 22 h in economy with a decent break (shower, walk around etc). I usually tried to sleep as much as possible, especially on the second leg as you usually arrived in the morning.

    I wouldn’t see an issue with non-stop.
    I've done ~20-24 hours in a coach a few times (no idea what the seat pitch in those was) and I found it a real slog, because I wasn't able to sleep sitting mostly upright. And that had the benefit of occasional stops where you could get out and wander around.

    My wife pointed out that the 22-hour flight time is almost exactly the same as the new 21.5 hour ferry service from Cork to Boulogne, which would be a rather different experience (with the potential additional excitement of a run-in with the Russian navy). But then you're in Boulogne and not Sydney.
    Brave. The longest coach I've done was London to Paris and that was bad enough. £4 though...
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 28,927

    carnforth said:

    Non-stop London to Sydney flights from next year!

    https://x.com/qantas/status/2067227199330300075

    Braver souls than I doing that in Economy or Premium Economy. I did 16 hours on China Airlines economy and almost threw a wobbly.
    Qantas are planning on having only 238 passengers, compared to 350-410 in a standard A350-1000, so it might not be as bad as you think.

    I'm guessing they don't want a dozen blood clot deaths in the first six months to scare people off.

    This Airbus webpage says there will be a "wellbeing zone" where passengers can stretch. https://www.airbus.com/en/newsroom/stories/2026-06-countdown-to-the-worlds-longest-commercial-flights-the-airbus-a350-1000ulr

    Still, 22 hours without being able to lie down would be pretty awful, but if it reduces the end-to-end travel time by eliminating a stopover it might be better overall.
    When I was hoping to and fro to NZ I used to do it in one go with 3-6 h in Singapore (usually). So about 22 h in economy with a decent break (shower, walk around etc). I usually tried to sleep as much as possible, especially on the second leg as you usually arrived in the morning.

    I wouldn’t see an issue with non-stop.
    I've done ~20-24 hours in a coach a few times (no idea what the seat pitch in those was) and I found it a real slog, because I wasn't able to sleep sitting mostly upright. And that had the benefit of occasional stops where you could get out and wander around.

    My wife pointed out that the 22-hour flight time is almost exactly the same as the new 21.5 hour ferry service from Cork to Boulogne, which would be a rather different experience (with the potential additional excitement of a run-in with the Russian navy). But then you're in Boulogne and not Sydney.
    I did the Caledonian Express last year. Boarded London 10:30pm, arrived Edinburgh 7:30am, detrained 8am. I may have mentioned it.

    :)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,656
    viewcode said:

    carnforth said:

    Non-stop London to Sydney flights from next year!

    https://x.com/qantas/status/2067227199330300075

    Braver souls than I doing that in Economy or Premium Economy. I did 16 hours on China Airlines economy and almost threw a wobbly.
    Qantas are planning on having only 238 passengers, compared to 350-410 in a standard A350-1000, so it might not be as bad as you think.

    I'm guessing they don't want a dozen blood clot deaths in the first six months to scare people off.

    This Airbus webpage says there will be a "wellbeing zone" where passengers can stretch. https://www.airbus.com/en/newsroom/stories/2026-06-countdown-to-the-worlds-longest-commercial-flights-the-airbus-a350-1000ulr

    Still, 22 hours without being able to lie down would be pretty awful, but if it reduces the end-to-end travel time by eliminating a stopover it might be better overall.
    When I was hoping to and fro to NZ I used to do it in one go with 3-6 h in Singapore (usually). So about 22 h in economy with a decent break (shower, walk around etc). I usually tried to sleep as much as possible, especially on the second leg as you usually arrived in the morning.

    I wouldn’t see an issue with non-stop.
    I've done ~20-24 hours in a coach a few times (no idea what the seat pitch in those was) and I found it a real slog, because I wasn't able to sleep sitting mostly upright. And that had the benefit of occasional stops where you could get out and wander around.

    My wife pointed out that the 22-hour flight time is almost exactly the same as the new 21.5 hour ferry service from Cork to Boulogne, which would be a rather different experience (with the potential additional excitement of a run-in with the Russian navy). But then you're in Boulogne and not Sydney.
    I did the Caledonian Express last year. Boarded London 10:30pm, arrived Edinburgh 7:30am, detrained 8am. I may have mentioned it.

    :)
    Were you shot for using the term detrained?
  • boulayboulay Posts: 9,003


    Aaron Rupar
    @atrupar
    ·
    1m
    Trump: "It's signed. I signed it in Versailles. I just signed it."

    We all know how well Versailles stopped future conflict.

    But, so like the French to edge in on the glory.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,353
    edited June 17
    boulay said:


    Aaron Rupar
    @atrupar
    ·
    1m
    Trump: "It's signed. I signed it in Versailles. I just signed it."

    We all know how well Versailles stopped future conflict.

    But, so like the French to edge in on the glory.
    Wasn't it supposed to be Switzerland? Perhaps they didn't have a palace gaudy enough....
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,353
    "Point 6: Money for Iran reconstruction
    The sixth point of the MoU says the US and regional partners will develop a "definitive, mutually agreed plan" worth at least $300bn (£224bn) for reconstruction and economic development in Iran.
    The final mechanism will be agreed within 60 days of the final deal, and all licences, waivers and permissions will be granted by the US.
    However, this does not mean the US will be financially involved.
    One official noted that the US is not required to pay "a cent of money" to Iran, or contribute to the fund.
    As a hypothetical example, the official said that if Iran "behaves", Emirati authorities could build a power plant in Iran, with US blessing.
    Trump and other officials have gone to great lengths to make clear to the US public that it will not be paying Iran directly, which the administration says stands in stark contrast to the 2015 nuclear agreement between Iran and the Obama administration."

    So the stuff about Trump paying billions to Iran was guff?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,611
    Oh..


    Mikey Smith

    @mikeysmith
    Incredible coincidence that @nigel_Farage
    watched the England game in the same spot in the same pub, with the same flags up, wearing the same top and standing next to someone wearing an identical top as he did during the Euros in 2024.


    https://x.com/mikeysmith/status/2067377452331004179
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 28,927
    dixiedean said:

    viewcode said:

    carnforth said:

    Non-stop London to Sydney flights from next year!

    https://x.com/qantas/status/2067227199330300075

    Braver souls than I doing that in Economy or Premium Economy. I did 16 hours on China Airlines economy and almost threw a wobbly.
    Qantas are planning on having only 238 passengers, compared to 350-410 in a standard A350-1000, so it might not be as bad as you think.

    I'm guessing they don't want a dozen blood clot deaths in the first six months to scare people off.

    This Airbus webpage says there will be a "wellbeing zone" where passengers can stretch. https://www.airbus.com/en/newsroom/stories/2026-06-countdown-to-the-worlds-longest-commercial-flights-the-airbus-a350-1000ulr

    Still, 22 hours without being able to lie down would be pretty awful, but if it reduces the end-to-end travel time by eliminating a stopover it might be better overall.
    When I was hoping to and fro to NZ I used to do it in one go with 3-6 h in Singapore (usually). So about 22 h in economy with a decent break (shower, walk around etc). I usually tried to sleep as much as possible, especially on the second leg as you usually arrived in the morning.

    I wouldn’t see an issue with non-stop.
    I've done ~20-24 hours in a coach a few times (no idea what the seat pitch in those was) and I found it a real slog, because I wasn't able to sleep sitting mostly upright. And that had the benefit of occasional stops where you could get out and wander around.

    My wife pointed out that the 22-hour flight time is almost exactly the same as the new 21.5 hour ferry service from Cork to Boulogne, which would be a rather different experience (with the potential additional excitement of a run-in with the Russian navy). But then you're in Boulogne and not Sydney.
    I did the Caledonian Express last year. Boarded London 10:30pm, arrived Edinburgh 7:30am, detrained 8am. I may have mentioned it.

    :)
    Were you shot for using the term detrained?
    Yes. I was unalived.

    :)
  • The_WoodpeckerThe_Woodpecker Posts: 580

    carnforth said:

    Non-stop London to Sydney flights from next year!

    https://x.com/qantas/status/2067227199330300075

    Braver souls than I doing that in Economy or Premium Economy. I did 16 hours on China Airlines economy and almost threw a wobbly.
    Qantas are planning on having only 238 passengers, compared to 350-410 in a standard A350-1000, so it might not be as bad as you think.

    I'm guessing they don't want a dozen blood clot deaths in the first six months to scare people off.

    This Airbus webpage says there will be a "wellbeing zone" where passengers can stretch. https://www.airbus.com/en/newsroom/stories/2026-06-countdown-to-the-worlds-longest-commercial-flights-the-airbus-a350-1000ulr

    Still, 22 hours without being able to lie down would be pretty awful, but if it reduces the end-to-end travel time by eliminating a stopover it might be better overall.
    When I was hoping to and fro to NZ I used to do it in one go with 3-6 h in Singapore (usually). So about 22 h in economy with a decent break (shower, walk around etc). I usually tried to sleep as much as possible, especially on the second leg as you usually arrived in the morning.

    I wouldn’t see an issue with non-stop.
    I've done ~20-24 hours in a coach a few times (no idea what the seat pitch in those was) and I found it a real slog, because I wasn't able to sleep sitting mostly upright. And that had the benefit of occasional stops where you could get out and wander around.

    My wife pointed out that the 22-hour flight time is almost exactly the same as the new 21.5 hour ferry service from Cork to Boulogne, which would be a rather different experience (with the potential additional excitement of a run-in with the Russian navy). But then you're in Boulogne and not Sydney.
    They're both nice places. Slight edge to Sydney I guess. Except in football where USC Boulogne would thrash any of the Sydney clubs.
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