Is Andy about to crash and burn-ham? – politicalbetting.com
Is Andy about to crash and burn-ham? – politicalbetting.com
***13 per cent*** of Makerfield voters still undecided: still a lot to squeezeFavourability scores:– Burnham +7– Kenyon -16– Farage -19– Starmer -48Full story:https://t.co/VGiJpBa4Ab
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Two shit anthems
Although Burnham's ratings should see him over the line, The Times report
The poll also suggests that Burnham’s strong personal brand is likely to be decisive. The data shows he is considerably more popular in Makerfield than Sir Keir Starmer, Farage and Kenyon — none of whom had positive approval ratings.
Burnham, whose lead is within the poll’s margin of error, emerges with a net favourability score of 7 per cent, with 44 per cent of voters having a favourable view and 36 per cent viewing him unfavourably.
Only 13 per cent of Makerfield residents, by contrast, had a favourable view of the prime minister.
Farage was viewed favourably by 31 per cent, while Kenyon, the plumber and local councillor standing for Reform, is viewed favourably by 25 per cent.
World/North/Rubble?Hashtag Better Barnetted Boris
Incidentally, permission to be at least a bit uncomfortable with this;
Labour door-knockers are nervous too, however. They are being warned by organisers that Restore Britain activists – who are easily identifiable on the ground, as they wear dark blue polo shirts and baseball hats featuring their party’s name – are equipped with smart glasses that record interactions.
https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/andy-burnham-makerfield-campaign-aftermath-prep-government
(The whole article is good, but not in a cheering way.)
Kemi as if Restore start taking Reform votes that forces Farage to the deport all immigrants, hard right. That might enable her to win back some 2024 Tories currently flirting with Reform but who are not white nationalists
Correction 219 but still a phenomenal total.
IE SKS LAB is so unpopular Reform would have beaten any other Lab candidate.
One nil!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aAhm880quUg
But, still, they knocked out Wales AND Italy in the play-offs.
It begins to look as though Restore will save their deposit, which is a good showing for a party third by some distance to resist a by-election squeeze. I think we might have to take seriously the prospect of six-party politics in England.
It might be the worst possible outcome (I personally don't think it is), but that doesn't actually detract from the hilarity.
I'd be laughing like a drain if Burnham lost to the Green too.
Labour are doomed if they carry on with Starmer imo and that will lead to PM Farage. Burham's attempt to oust Starmer is a roll of the dice - nothing ventured, nothing gained.
There also seem to an increasing number of social media videos (mostly from Russian women it seems) about leaving Crimea due to the fuel crisis there, with one apparently suggesting that Russian equipment is being moved from Crimea to Moscow (maybe air defence equipment?)
"There's an emerging consensus that equality laws are illiberal and counter-productive. It doesn't make any sense for the Tories to swim against the tide just because the Cameron government was responsible for a lot of it."
What a load of utter nonsense.
The Equality Act is a consolidating statute consolidating anti-discrimination provisions dating back to the 1960's and 1970's. It was also passed by a Labour government not Cameron.
There is certainly a campaign by various different groups of idiots to remove certain sex-based rights and anti-discrimination measures, which will also impact gay people and religious people, and to put such groups back in the position they were in in the 1960's and 1970's. That would certainly be extremely illiberal and it is a great pity that the Tories are falling for this nonsense, just as some of the dimmer Labour MPs, much of the Lib Dems and the Greens have done.
Realistic - Burnham winning. He'll be a terrible Prime Minister, he's like a cartoon version of Starmer with a northern accent.
Theoretical - Probably one of the various weirdos, possibly Restore; they are actual racists, unlike Reform, and if they gain prominence and start splitting the Reform vote, it will be a disaster for the country at the next election.
Worried any?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=elCrHdCVMlQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xs6G2T46n3U
I only have a faint memory of him 'being political' - but he's remarkably eloquent.
Andy Burnham says that if he wins the Makerfield by-election it will be a 'cry for change both here and across the country' in a clear signal of his intent to run for No 10
He described winning Makerfield as 'stage one' of his campaign to change the Labour Party so it can take on Reform and win
“As we have gone through and people have become clearer about what I am doing, it feels like the cry for a different politics is getting stronger. This campaign, if it goes the way I hope, is going to deliver a cry for that change, both here and across the country.”
My view on the Times poll is if you are taking 14 days to do fieldwork, that's an eternity in a by-election.
The fact the numbers are closer to earlier polling than some of the more recent numbers makes me wonder...
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi: “According to the memorandum of understanding, if it is signed, Iran's frozen assets will be released.
“None of our assets will be allowed to remain frozen again. A reconstruction plan has been envisaged to compensate Iran for the damage it has suffered.”
Araghchi: “Fees will be charged for services in the Strait of Hormuz, and these services will no longer be free.
“This important matter has been confirmed: payment of fees is required.”
Araghchi: “The Strait of Hormuz is, without a doubt, under the sovereignty of Iran and Oman. There is no international waterway in the Strait of Hormuz.
“For many years, this waterway was open to all ships. Iran and Oman ensured its security and provided services; until now, all services were free of charge.
“However, the future management of the Strait of Hormuz will not be like the past. No one can challenge Iran and Oman's sovereignty over the strait.
“The management of the Strait of Hormuz will not return to the pre-war system.”
Araghchi: “As soon as the final stages of the negotiations are completed, the agreement will be signed and announced. The initial signing will take place remotely in digital form.
“This could happen within the next few days.”
He never claimed he would win a massive majority.
He gambled his career on a seat no other LAB politician could win at all
Stick to commenting about stuff you have a clue about
These people want Keir Starmer out. So they will vote Labour.
caroline wheeler
@cazjwheeler
New: Morgan McSweeney is back advising the Prime Minister – four months after he resigned over his role in the Mandelson scandal.
The former No 10 chief of staff is advising Sir Keir Starmer in his moment of greatest peril, multiple government and Whitehall sources told The i Paper.
https://x.com/cazjwheeler/status/2065481609240019430
Whichever it is, Burnham will be responsible.
(Links omitted.)
(FWIW, I have seen a report that the Loser's administration has been slowly removing some who share RFK, Jr.'s views, recognizing the political costs from sick, and even dying, children.)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Measles
Exclusive:
Britain must not be “squeamish” about reducing the welfare bill to fund additional spending on defence, Andy Burnham has said.
Electing Reform on the other hand...
I have been prepared to give Starmer the chance but the Robbins sacking was a step too far.
He just has to go.
Thrilled to welcome @TrevorPTweets to @CBSNews.
https://x.com/bariweiss/status/2065440278987583832?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
(Links omitted.)
(FWIW, I have seen a report that the Loser's administration has been slowly removing some who share RFK, Jr.'s views, recognizing the political costs from sick, and even dying, children.)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Measles
Who-ever they hired at great expense to tell them that maybe dead children weren't a vote-winner - is earning every million.
The Kennedy Center board has filed an emergency motion to stay at the DC Circuit and it is bonkity-bonkers.
For the first time, they say they amended the bylaws to strip all funding from the center if it removes Trump's name.
No Trump KC, no money.
https://bsky.app/profile/lizdye.bsky.social/post/3mo4ky6pbgk26
Fuck it, the Man With A Stick could have knocked them off. To much hilarity.
People are saying that they like Burnham and that they're not impressed with Reform/the plumber, so whilst there may be some shy Reformers, the simplest prediction seems to be that they will vote accordingly.
6:40 PM · Jun 12, 2026 from Richard Sanders at https://x.com/PulaRJS/status/2065504438391849094 , retweeting DoubleDownNews at https://x.com/DoubleDownNews/status/2053417454697635997
https://bsky.app/profile/rodger.bsky.social/post/3mo4o2wcf622m
This is illustrated by your phrase "sex-based rights" and other phrases like"fairness" and the gender-critical networks preceded by "SEEN" - an acronym meaning "Sex Equality And Equity Network" - pay homage to that.
You may recall that I've mentioned Robert Reilly before, and his work on tracking wars of ideas. One technique is to track the popularity of shibboleths and cant phrases over time. I think that the rise of fairness-based phrases and the fall of equality-based phrases demonstrates that @williamglenn is onto something, albeit not something I like.
Sorry.
Peter.