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SystemSystem Posts: 12,599
edited February 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s cartoon from Marf (on Sir Malcolm of course) and the evening polling thread

Marf on Sir Malcolm pic.twitter.com/aKlmQdU3MV

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487
    FRIST€
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    I think you've nailed it Marf.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,534
    Is it Survation that weights to the 2014 Euros? Hence the 23% UKIP?
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Not being in the uk right now how did the green leader fare with andrew neil???
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,784
    SquareRoot said:

    Not being in the uk right now how did the green leader fare with andrew neil???

    train crash.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,629
    He was definitely massaging his own ego, but the way he said he was self-employed was frankly ridiculous. I do feel some pity for him though, what a poor way to end a reasonably distinguished career.

    I wonder if he will be ennobled if he is cleared by the standards commissioner, you could imagine Cameron offering him this, if he resigned immediately.
  • lolandollolandol Posts: 35
    isam - you still want £20 on Aguero first card?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,942
    (Just For Fun)

    Survation - 5% Lab Lead

    YG - 1% Con Lead

  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Two in a day.. i e mailed a pal in the uk about the first one he said it was so embarrassing he could not listen until the end. And a correction i am over 2000 miles away not 1500 as prev stated
  • marf_the_cartoonistmarf_the_cartoonist Posts: 27
    Toms said:

    I think you've nailed it Marf.

    Thank you, Toms.

  • isamisam Posts: 42,271
    edited February 2015
    lolandol said:

    isam - you still want £20 on Aguero first card?

    If you can get 33/1 that'd be great
  • lolandollolandol Posts: 35
    You're on isam
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    I have the unfortunate duty to announce that following the political defenestration of Sir Malcie of Kensington and Chelsea of that Ilk that Nuala of this parish was this afternoon found slumped in a finely tooled leather armchair at a heath spa in Bedfordshire with a pink handled derringer pistol by her side.

    Ms Nuala, age unknown, having just shot the footman who had bought a copy of the Bedford Bugle featuring the thread cartoon by "Marf" is said to be helping the police with their enquiries at an undisclosed interview room near Luton.

    Relatives of Ms Nuala are said to shocked and stunned that she failed to take her full length sable fur coat and crocodile hand luggage to Smithson Towers Health Spa and clearly she has developed PRSD - Post Rikind Stress Disorder.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,776
    Very good cartoon.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,271
    lolandol said:

    You're on isam

    Thanks will get your details to send money when it loses!
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Just listened to the LBC interview and it was terrible. Dave may have slipped up in demanding the Greens take part. If the debates are anything like her interviews today I could see a fair few Green voters returning to Labour.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Evening all.

    @MP_SE - SKY headline URL says it all…!

    http://news.sky.com/story/1433512/green-leaders-cock-up-will-have-consequences.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,316
    MarqueeMark said:

    Is it Survation that weights to the 2014 Euros? Hence the 23% UKIP?

    No, TNS weight to both "2010 GE and 2014 Euros".
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,316
    Great cartoon, Marf! :)
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,378
    For all of those out there who want a good Spider-Man movie. Bad news, SPE (Sony) just hired Tom Rothman as their new studio head to replace Amy Pascal, he was directly involved in both X-Men The Last Stand and X-Men Origins Wolverine when he held the same position at Fox.

    Horrible, horrible decision. The long term rating of Sony moves from buy to overweight because of this move, there is clearly no long-term vision at Sony wrt to SPE.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,198
    MP SE I doubt it will make much difference to the Green Party vote, which is mainly made up of leftwingers who think Ed Miliband is useless and hate Clegg, most probably still think Lucas is leader anyway and will not have heard of Bennett. However, when even CiF posters in the Guardian online think Bennett cocked up and should be replaced by the more charismatic and effective Caroline Lucas, it may well be she may not last too long in the leadership role and move to another position
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,076
    MP_SE said:

    Just listened to the LBC interview and it was terrible. Dave may have slipped up in demanding the Greens take part. If the debates are anything like her interviews today I could see a fair few Green voters returning to Labour.

    I'm expecting an uptick in Green % over next few days.
  • Steven_WhaleySteven_Whaley Posts: 313
    rottenborough said:



    I'm expecting an uptick in Green % over next few days.

    There was certainly nothing in that interview, a mess though it certainly was, to put me off voting Green anyhow. I don't feel any less enthused than I did before hearing it this evening. Probably nothing much in it to put off any other existing Green voter either. Whether all publicity is good publicity remains to be seen though.



  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,197
    Extended interview with Ed, I mean David, I mean Ed, I mean David Miliband about his work with Thunderbirds.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VtJm3v42P7E
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    edited February 2015
    Straw and Rifkind show that MPs are remarkably cheap. I estimate that with a couple of million you could buy the unconditional support of Parliament for your interest.
  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    MaxPB said:

    For all of those out there who want a good Spider-Man movie. Bad news, SPE (Sony) just hired Tom Rothman as their new studio head to replace Amy Pascal, he was directly involved in both X-Men The Last Stand and X-Men Origins Wolverine when he held the same position at Fox.

    Horrible, horrible decision. The long term rating of Sony moves from buy to overweight because of this move, there is clearly no long-term vision at Sony wrt to SPE.

    Jewish male studio head, diverse! Where are the WASPs, the hispanics?
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    The interview was a total train crash but, like others, doubt it will put off too many existing Green supporters. What should, however, put them off is the pledge to build 500,000 new homes. Where? With what materials? What environments will be leveled under the new homes and ruined in the extraction of materials for build them?
  • Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    Another slam dunk by Marf.
    Spot on.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,736
    Clever cartoon, Marf.
    RobD said:

    He was definitely massaging his own ego, but the way he said he was self-employed was frankly ridiculous. I do feel some pity for him though, what a poor way to end a reasonably distinguished career.

    I wonder if he will be ennobled if he is cleared by the standards commissioner, you could imagine Cameron offering him this, if he resigned immediately.

    I think this sort of thing sometimes happens to distinguished figures in safe seats - they've rarely faced any very awkward situations and aggressive questions, and they struggle to handle them sensibly. Someone like George Galloway, of whom I'm not a fan at all but who is used to rough weather, would have emerged in better shape, but Rifkind was simply overwhelmed.

    The Bennett car crash may have been similar in cause - it's almost the first time anyone has bothered to analyse Green policy in depth.

  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,386
    MTimT,

    "What environments will be leveled under the new homes."

    Indeed, think of the thousands of worms who will be mercilessly crushed under those mechanical monsters belching out world-destroying fumes.

    The horror!
  • saddosaddo Posts: 534
    MTimT said:

    The interview was a total train crash but, like others, doubt it will put off too many existing Green supporters. What should, however, put them off is the pledge to build 500,000 new homes. Where? With what materials? What environments will be leveled under the new homes and ruined in the extraction of materials for build them?

    Genuine question - Is Brain Fader an Aussie or a Brit?

    Mate of mine is a developer. His expert view on house building is that all the regulations around new build houses is having 2 effects - makes houses unattractive and less saleable and makes them a lot more expensive to build. If the Green's got in, it wouldn't be a surprise is the cost of just meeting regulations would be £60k a house, excluding any build costs.

  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,718
    edited February 2015
    It is slightly depressing at a time when we are trying (some of us anyway) to reinstate a sense of morality - or at least good judgment - amongst our leaders and financial institutions to find that the lead candidate, according to press reports anyway, to become Chairman of RBS is one Sir Howard Davies.

    The Sir Howard Davies who had to resign from the LSE over its links with the Gaddaffi regime? That Sir Howard? Yes indeed.

    Oh dear! Just the man to set the tone from the top - to show bankers that money should not be allowed to blind people to the need - the urgent necessity - to use their judgment and that, sometimes, just because something can be done does not mean that it should.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Its quite possible that post the car crash interviews that anyone who is a green will still vote green... what is questionable that recently recruited greens will return to Labour.. They left Labour.. not voting is more likely imho than returning to Labour.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Cyclefree said:

    It is slightly depressing at a time when are trying (some of us anyway) to reinstate a sense of morality - or at least good judgment - amongst our leaders and financial institutions to find that the lead candidate, according to press reports anyway, to become Chairman of RBS is one Sir Howard Davies.

    The Sir Howard Davies who had to resign from the LSE over its links with the Gaddaffi regime? That Sir Howard? Yes indeed.

    Oh dear! Just the man to set the tone from the top - to show bankers that money should not be allowed to blind people to the need - the urgent necessity - to use their judgment and that, sometimes, just because something can be done does not mean that it should.

    That talentless individual has haunted public life for time immemorial like a bad penny personified.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Bennett's Car Crash Interview Is A Disaster For Ed
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,197
    Cyclefree said:

    It is slightly depressing at a time when we are trying (some of us anyway) to reinstate a sense of morality - or at least good judgment - amongst our leaders and financial institutions to find that the lead candidate, according to press reports anyway, to become Chairman of RBS is one Sir Howard Davies.

    The Sir Howard Davies who had to resign from the LSE over its links with the Gaddaffi regime? That Sir Howard? Yes indeed.

    Oh dear! Just the man to set the tone from the top - to show bankers that money should not be allowed to blind people to the need - the urgent necessity - to use their judgment and that, sometimes, just because something can be done does not mean that it should.

    You have to be kidding....Wasn't he also in charge of the FSA for a number of years, blindly unaware of the the s##t what was going on around him?
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    edited February 2015
    SquareRoot said:

    Its quite possible that post the car crash interviews that anyone who is a green will still vote green... what is questionable that recently recruited greens will return to Labour.. They left Labour.. not voting is more likely imho than returning to Labour.

    Not sure. I can see a Green bounce in a few days ( all publicity and all that...) but surely a number of Labour waverers will be driven back into the fold longer term? Ed's crap, but not that crap.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,321
    Is this a spoof Twitter a/c.

    David Axlerod @AxlerodDavid · 48s 49 seconds ago
    Thank Christ I'm not doing the Green's PR campaign for #GE2015 after that car crash interview with @natalieben today.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    The next Tory MP to defect to UKIP identified:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2966804/Tory-MP-claims-ASTROLOGY-solve-health-service-crisis-taking-pressure-doctors-nurses.html
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,718
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Cyclefree said:

    It is slightly depressing at a time when are trying (some of us anyway) to reinstate a sense of morality - or at least good judgment - amongst our leaders and financial institutions to find that the lead candidate, according to press reports anyway, to become Chairman of RBS is one Sir Howard Davies.

    The Sir Howard Davies who had to resign from the LSE over its links with the Gaddaffi regime? That Sir Howard? Yes indeed.

    Oh dear! Just the man to set the tone from the top - to show bankers that money should not be allowed to blind people to the need - the urgent necessity - to use their judgment and that, sometimes, just because something can be done does not mean that it should.

    That talentless individual has haunted public life for time immemorial like a bad penny personified.
    What those who recruit such people always always forget - if they ever knew it - is that while skills and experience are very useful, what really matters above all is character. Moral character. Integrity. Judgment.

    And if you have a choice between character and skills, you choose character. Every single time.

    Too many people who are trying to do a good job see too many people who have an elevated idea of their own importance really do a lot of important jobs really quite badly or in a mediocre way and still waltz into a lot of prestigious and highly paid jobs on the basis of, well, what?

    Meritocracy, my ar*e!

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,629
    Stereotomy said:

    Bennett's Car Crash Interview Is A Disaster For Ed

    It is also Good For Yes.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Marf did not get the memo -- today is about Natalie Squirrel burying news of Sir MR's resignation.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    edited February 2015
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Marf did not get the memo -- today is about Natalie Squirrel burying news of Sir MR's resignation.

    At least he's resigned, something seldom practised by Labour delinquents during the thirteen-year horror.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,321
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Cyclefree said:

    It is slightly depressing at a time when we are trying (some of us anyway) to reinstate a sense of morality - or at least good judgment - amongst our leaders and financial institutions to find that the lead candidate, according to press reports anyway, to become Chairman of RBS is one Sir Howard Davies.

    The Sir Howard Davies who had to resign from the LSE over its links with the Gaddaffi regime? That Sir Howard? Yes indeed.

    Oh dear! Just the man to set the tone from the top - to show bankers that money should not be allowed to blind people to the need - the urgent necessity - to use their judgment and that, sometimes, just because something can be done does not mean that it should.

    You have to be kidding....Wasn't he also in charge of the FSA for a number of years, blindly unaware of the the s##t what was going on around him?
    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4c8c2762-bb4c-11e4-b95c-00144feab7de.html#ixzz3Sh3H1Gb5

    Ex chairman of FSA before HBOS collapsed. FT implying that an inquiry into its failure won't surface before summer.

    Not sure this looks smart.


  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,321
    Cyclefree said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Cyclefree said:

    It is slightly depressing at a time when are trying (some of us anyway) to reinstate a sense of morality - or at least good judgment - amongst our leaders and financial institutions to find that the lead candidate, according to press reports anyway, to become Chairman of RBS is one Sir Howard Davies.

    The Sir Howard Davies who had to resign from the LSE over its links with the Gaddaffi regime? That Sir Howard? Yes indeed.

    Oh dear! Just the man to set the tone from the top - to show bankers that money should not be allowed to blind people to the need - the urgent necessity - to use their judgment and that, sometimes, just because something can be done does not mean that it should.

    That talentless individual has haunted public life for time immemorial like a bad penny personified.
    What those who recruit such people always always forget - if they ever knew it - is that while skills and experience are very useful, what really matters above all is character. Moral character. Integrity. Judgment.

    And if you have a choice between character and skills, you choose character. Every single time.

    Too many people who are trying to do a good job see too many people who have an elevated idea of their own importance really do a lot of important jobs really quite badly or in a mediocre way and still waltz into a lot of prestigious and highly paid jobs on the basis of, well, what?

    Meritocracy, my ar*e!

    Bennett's LinkedIn profile highlights her skills of political communication and public speaking. I could almost fear that her account has been doctored...
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    welshowl said:

    SquareRoot said:

    Its quite possible that post the car crash interviews that anyone who is a green will still vote green... what is questionable that recently recruited greens will return to Labour.. They left Labour.. not voting is more likely imho than returning to Labour.

    Not sure. I can see a Green bounce in a few days ( all publicity and all that...) but surely a number of Labour waverers will be driven back into the fold longer term? Ed's crap, but not that crap.
    Dont bet your house on it yet.. the election campaign might be revalatory
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,965
    SquareRoot said:

    welshowl said:

    SquareRoot said:

    Its quite possible that post the car crash interviews that anyone who is a green will still vote green... what is questionable that recently recruited greens will return to Labour.. They left Labour.. not voting is more likely imho than returning to Labour.

    Not sure. I can see a Green bounce in a few days ( all publicity and all that...) but surely a number of Labour waverers will be driven back into the fold longer term? Ed's crap, but not that crap.
    Dont bet your house on it yet.. the election campaign might be revalatory
    Tories seem to be hoping EIC will be even worse than current expectations.

    Unfortunately Dave the master debater is Frit of putting Ed to the sword in the debates
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,718
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Cyclefree said:

    It is slightly depressing at a time when we are trying (some of us anyway) to reinstate a sense of morality - or at least good judgment - amongst our leaders and financial institutions to find that the lead candidate, according to press reports anyway, to become Chairman of RBS is one Sir Howard Davies.

    The Sir Howard Davies who had to resign from the LSE over its links with the Gaddaffi regime? That Sir Howard? Yes indeed.

    Oh dear! Just the man to set the tone from the top - to show bankers that money should not be allowed to blind people to the need - the urgent necessity - to use their judgment and that, sometimes, just because something can be done does not mean that it should.

    You have to be kidding....Wasn't he also in charge of the FSA for a number of years, blindly unaware of the the s##t what was going on around him?
    The very same.

    He is a management consultant by background. So the sort of person who thinks that how an organisation is structured, not what it does or, even more importantly, who does it, is the most important thing about it.

    The people who get to the top of these organisations are the cream of society: those who are thick and rich.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,026
    Survation


    LAB - 34% (+4)
    CON - 28% (-3)
    UKIP - 19% (-4)
    LDEM - 10% (+3)
    GRN - 4% (+1)
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @TheScreamingEagles
    Outlandish outlier?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,378
    City = LOL.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Survation


    LAB - 34% (+4)
    CON - 28% (-3)
    UKIP - 19% (-4)
    LDEM - 10% (+3)
    GRN - 4% (+1)

    On the seat specific question last month was:
    LAB 31
    CON 31
    UKIP 21
    LD 7
    GRN 3
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,965
    Tonights Survation

    EICIPM
  • Hengists_GiftHengists_Gift Posts: 628
    SouthamObserver said:

    The next Tory MP to defect to UKIP identified:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2966804/Tory-MP-claims-ASTROLOGY-solve-health-service-crisis-taking-pressure-doctors-nurses.html

    But it was Gordon Brown who used Mystic Meg for his economic forecasts......
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Smarmeron said:

    @TheScreamingEagles
    Outlandish outlier?

    2nd poll this week that has a Labour majority.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,026
    This month's seat specific survation q

    Lab 33, Con 29, LD 10, Kippers 19
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,026
    Another poll with UKIP on the slide

    I think that's the only consistent thing in the polls
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    The Survation changes from last month on the seat specific question (a better metric with FPTP) are less dramatic:

    LAB+2
    CON-2
    UKIP-2
    LD+3
    GRN +1
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Another poll with UKIP on the slide

    I think that's the only consistent thing in the polls

    And Labour the only one who profits.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,629
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Survation


    LAB - 34% (+4)
    CON - 28% (-3)
    UKIP - 19% (-4)
    LDEM - 10% (+3)
    GRN - 4% (+1)

    Something about "whores" and "drawers".
  • Hengists_GiftHengists_Gift Posts: 628
    So much for 'Vote UKIP Get Labour' its more a case of 'switch UKIP to Labour'. I don't think that is in the Tory playbook.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Hengists_Gift said:

    So much for 'Vote UKIP Get Labour' its more a case of 'switch UKIP to Labour'. I don't think that is in the Tory playbook.

    The voters have made their minds up about the government, they are just shopping around for the best opposition party to back.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,839
    I find it hard to believe that the left wing parties have gained 8% in the last month, at the expense of UKIP and the tories.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Ed has been off tv for a week....
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,965
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Survation


    LAB - 34% (+4)
    CON - 28% (-3)
    UKIP - 19% (-4)
    LDEM - 10% (+3)
    GRN - 4% (+1)

    No chance that LAB are 6pts ahead.

    Surely 28% is too low for Tories
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,378
    City = Double LOL.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2015
    I've calculated the Suvation England&Wales only figures, for the seat specific question:

    LAB 33.7
    CON 30.5
    UKIP 21
    LD 10.5
    GRN 3

    Labour a little more that 3% ahead in England and Wales.
  • Hengists_GiftHengists_Gift Posts: 628
    Speedy said:

    Hengists_Gift said:

    So much for 'Vote UKIP Get Labour' its more a case of 'switch UKIP to Labour'. I don't think that is in the Tory playbook.

    The voters have made their minds up about the government, they are just shopping around for the best opposition party to back.
    I don't think they've decided anything. They didn't really know what to do in 2010 and they know even less what to do this time around......
  • Hengists_GiftHengists_Gift Posts: 628
    Incidentally anyone else think that Channel 4's piece of malevolence is the driver of the UKIP slide?
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    MaxPB said:

    City = Double LOL.

    Prize ass Chris Waddle is lauding Barca in a revolting fashion, expect a dramatic City comeback.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Hengists_Gift said:

    Incidentally anyone else think that Channel 4's piece of malevolence is the driver of the UKIP slide?

    It probably affected the Red UKIP'ers into returning to the Labour fold.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Hengists_Gift said:

    Incidentally anyone else think that Channel 4's piece of malevolence is the driver of the UKIP slide?

    I think most people saw the program for what it was.

    I will be interested to see whether they continually poll around the low double digits for the rest of the week. I expect a bounce after their spring conference and manifesto unveiling.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,784
    Hengists_Gift said:

    Incidentally anyone else think that Channel 4's piece of malevolence is the driver of the UKIP slide?

    No.

    They've just been out of the limelight for a bit. That will change and I would expect them to pick up again when it does.
  • Hengists_GiftHengists_Gift Posts: 628
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Hengists_Gift said:

    Incidentally anyone else think that Channel 4's piece of malevolence is the driver of the UKIP slide?

    No.

    They've just been out of the limelight for a bit. That will change and I would expect them to pick up again when it does.
    But why the sudden drop now when they've been out of the limelight (intentionally) for at least a couple of months?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,250
    rcs1000 said:

    I find it hard to believe that the left wing parties have gained 8% in the last month, at the expense of UKIP and the tories.

    I think it's more that last month's share for Con and UKIP was an abnormally high 54%. This month, the combined share is 47% (48% for the seat-specific question). That's in line with the average. Survation's weightings then push up the UKIP share, and depress the Conservative share (like TNS).

  • Hengists_GiftHengists_Gift Posts: 628
    MP_SE said:

    Hengists_Gift said:

    Incidentally anyone else think that Channel 4's piece of malevolence is the driver of the UKIP slide?

    I think most people saw the program for what it was.

    I will be interested to see whether they continually poll around the low double digits for the rest of the week. I expect a bounce after their spring conference and manifesto unveiling.
    Perhaps although I checked on BBC Government and they don't seem to be showing it (but they are showing the Libdems Welsh conference this Saturday).
  • Paul_Mid_BedsPaul_Mid_Beds Posts: 1,409
    I've just watched the "racist rant" on the BBC "meet the kippers" programme from the now expelled UKIP councillor.

    From the general fuss, I was expecting something resembling an Alf Garnet tirade. What I saw was a women apparing to admit she was frightened of people with African features, that she accepted she seemed to have a problem and didn't seem to know what to do about it. She didn't imply they were inferior or use intentionally derogatory language (albeit she used a different n word that was considered respectable to her generation but is no longer considered PC). She seemed to me to think she had a phobia, possibly, as she said, due to a long ago repressed bad experience.

    Surely monstering her is in this way is wholly counter productive. It strikes me as a modern version of the people who used to go round Bedlam laughing at the inmates in the 18th Century?

    Why she decided to discuss something so personal and controversial in front of the cameras only she knows, but it was clearly troubling her. Surely this is someone who needs help not monstering, making political capital out of and having people behaving like the crowd in the scene in Life of Brian when someone said J*****ah?
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,784
    Hengists_Gift said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Hengists_Gift said:

    Incidentally anyone else think that Channel 4's piece of malevolence is the driver of the UKIP slide?

    No.

    They've just been out of the limelight for a bit. That will change and I would expect them to pick up again when it does.
    But why the sudden drop now when they've been out of the limelight (intentionally) for at least a couple of months?
    Well for one thing the drop isn't that dramatic, and I think 'a couple of months' is stretching it.

    But sell them if you think the decline will continue. I'm not doing so, not yet, and if I'm wrong I'll pay for it, not for the first time.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,736
    Well, GIN predicted a big Labour lead with Survation, and a Tory lead with YouGov. He's taking over the soothsayer role from SeanT. :-)

    But yeah, I'm sceptical too. I think Labour has a modest lead and we're seeing normal noise around that. But I do reckon UKIP is off the boil, and that it's marginally benefiting Labour, because the later, less convinced UKIP adherents came from Labour.
    SouthamObserver said:

    The next Tory MP to defect to UKIP identified:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2966804/Tory-MP-claims-ASTROLOGY-solve-health-service-crisis-taking-pressure-doctors-nurses.html

    David has always been like that - homeopathy is another of his fancies. He's a nice, gentle fellow and other MPs never liked to heckle him but he was always seen as a little...specialised.
  • saddosaddo Posts: 534
    If Survation is correct, its time to leave the country. Who are the idiots who say to pollsters they want the 2 Eds to turn the UK into Greece?
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Alves first booked
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,218
    Hengists_Gift said:

    Incidentally anyone else think that Channel 4's piece of malevolence is the driver of the UKIP slide?

    I suspect not. UKIP were always going to be a midterm phenomenon - a bit of a jolly and a heady indulgence when it didn't matter. But as the witching hour draws closer people will start to appreciate that UKIP are a luxury we can't afford. They'll be put into a skip with the Christmas empties.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,965
    saddo said:

    If Survation is correct, its time to leave the country. Who are the idiots who say to pollsters they want the 2 Eds to turn the UK into Greece?

    Bye
  • ManchesterKurtManchesterKurt Posts: 931
    Some very welcomed, very significant devolution of powers and spending going on in Manchester below the radar of the national media, far greater powers than those devolved to London, similar to Wales or Scotland, the latest...
    http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/devolution-now-greater-manchester-gets-8712970
    Devolution: Now Greater Manchester gets control of its entire £6bn NHS budget
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Paul_Mid_Beds
    I have a lot of sympathy for any politician who gets the media spin cycle.
    Find a line, then edit out the context, and it becomes a fantastic headline.
    There have been several of those in the past few weeks, and we can expect a bulk delivery regularly right up to polling day.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,250
    Hengists_Gift said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Hengists_Gift said:

    Incidentally anyone else think that Channel 4's piece of malevolence is the driver of the UKIP slide?

    No.

    They've just been out of the limelight for a bit. That will change and I would expect them to pick up again when it does.
    But why the sudden drop now when they've been out of the limelight (intentionally) for at least a couple of months?
    UKIP were never really on 23%. This is simply a reversion to a more normal score. Polling from Sunday onwards still puts UKIP on an average 14%.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2015
    Looking at the tables, Survation has done a jumble with them, PC is getting 9.4% in the North and no votes in Wales, obviously a mix up.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,271
    edited February 2015
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Alves first booked

    Was rakitic actually but either way a loser...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,232
    Outlier I am sure...but no consistent trend of polling in the opposite direction which would prevent a Labour win, so it hardly matters if it is way out - only ones which are similarly out of the general range show anything that might help the Tories win, even if they might have had hopes in the past few months of limiting the scale of the loss.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    isam said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Alves first booked

    Was rakitic actually but either way a loser...
    Never trust Alan Green commentary!!!

    elsewhere:

    sean thomas knox @thomasknox
    The "missing ISIS girls" have now crossed into Syria (says BBC news). So that's it. They've joined ISIS. Which is crime. They are criminals.
    Retweeted by Daniel Hannan
  • saddosaddo Posts: 534
    bigjohnowls said:

    saddo said:

    If Survation is correct, its time to leave the country. Who are the idiots who say to pollsters they want the 2 Eds to turn the UK into Greece?

    Bye
    Happy to take the many multiples of tax I pay vs the average tax payer with me. Hows that help pay for Labour's stupid spending plans?
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Scrapheap_as_was
    I hereby charge you three with becoming brood mares for a bunch of psychopathic halfwits that we have no idea how to deal with in any sensible fashion?
  • coolagornacoolagorna Posts: 127
    28%? An outlier cry the Blue Boys...I say how on earth does a party that only represents the 1% get
    an astonishing 27% of other gullible cap doffers to say they will vote
    for them?

    Coalition down from 61% in 2010 to 38% in this poll...looks like
    the "Booming Britain" garbage from people like Digby Jones
    and the obedient Tory lickspittle press isnt resonating
    with many sensible people who look at the reality of their
    lives and not the fairy tale fiddled figures and dodgy stats that
    are fed to them on a tediously regular basis
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Hengists_Gift said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Hengists_Gift said:

    Incidentally anyone else think that Channel 4's piece of malevolence is the driver of the UKIP slide?

    No.

    They've just been out of the limelight for a bit. That will change and I would expect them to pick up again when it does.
    But why the sudden drop now when they've been out of the limelight (intentionally) for at least a couple of months?
    Well for one thing the drop isn't that dramatic, and I think 'a couple of months' is stretching it.

    But sell them if you think the decline will continue. I'm not doing so, not yet, and if I'm wrong I'll pay for it, not for the first time.
    UKIP heading for 8/9 % at the next GE an inexorable decline looms
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    bigjohnowls said:

    saddo said:

    If Survation is correct, its time to leave the country. Who are the idiots who say to pollsters they want the 2 Eds to turn the UK into Greece?

    Bye
    ... to your pension.
  • Hengists_GiftHengists_Gift Posts: 628
    edited February 2015
    Sean_F said:

    Hengists_Gift said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Hengists_Gift said:

    Incidentally anyone else think that Channel 4's piece of malevolence is the driver of the UKIP slide?

    No.

    They've just been out of the limelight for a bit. That will change and I would expect them to pick up again when it does.
    But why the sudden drop now when they've been out of the limelight (intentionally) for at least a couple of months?
    UKIP were never really on 23%. This is simply a reversion to a more normal score. Polling from Sunday onwards still puts UKIP on an average 14%.
    19% is the lowest with Survation since last September and four out of the five polls prior to this one with Survation were 23% or higher. That would suggest in Survations eyes at least they were on 23%.

    However, whether UKIP were actually on 23% is irrelevant. Its that we have seen similar drops in three polls in two days . That suggests there is some sort of event impact affecting their vote share.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,271
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    isam said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Alves first booked

    Was rakitic actually but either way a loser...
    Never trust Alan Green commentary!!!

    elsewhere:

    sean thomas knox @thomasknox
    The "missing ISIS girls" have now crossed into Syria (says BBC news). So that's it. They've joined ISIS. Which is crime. They are criminals.
    Retweeted by Daniel Hannan
    Laid messi first goalscorer for five Malcolm rifkind speeches at work so feel like a winner even though I've lost on the day!
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,965
    saddo said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    saddo said:

    If Survation is correct, its time to leave the country. Who are the idiots who say to pollsters they want the 2 Eds to turn the UK into Greece?

    Bye
    Happy to take the many multiples of tax I pay vs the average tax payer with me. Hows that help pay for Labour's stupid spending plans?
    Babies who threaten to leave should just get on with it.

    I seem to remember Andrew Lloyd Webber threatening to leave in 1997. Dont think he ever did.

    What stupid spending plans Let me guess the NHS or welfare state?

    The IFS by the way thinks the Tory tax cut promises makes them the biggest black hole party



  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @coolagorna

    'the "Booming Britain"

    At least we won't have to worry about that with the two Ed's, just remember to switch the lights off.

  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @coolagorna
    No, I saw it in the news, our stock market is at levels not seen since the dot com bust......but this time it hasn't been artificially pumped up!
    It is as sound as our house prices.


    it is.....isn't it?
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