Private polling klaxon – politicalbetting.com
Private polling klaxon – politicalbetting.com
EXC: Private constituency-wide polling in Makerfield seen by The i Paper shows Andy Burnham on 35%, Restore Britain on 13% and Reform UK on 24% ? https://t.co/uITJyPH5WW
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The closure of the last thread seems to have vanished my last comment.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/the-burning-of-bombay-street-the-start-of-the-combustible-years-1.3986347
(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
Seems Suella Braverman and Robert Jenrick have a simple question to answer. Did they support the fast-track scheme for the alleged Belfast attacker. Or did they recognise it was jeopardising the British public, but simply stood by and did nothing.
https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/2064967435761979904
Personally, I suspect that a result like this is designed to bring possible defectors from Reform back into line.
“ Wolves have sacked Rob Edwards after agreeing deal to bring in Cesar Peixoto as his replacement. Edwards first heard of his sacking after members of his family saw rumours of Peixoto’s appointment on social media and Edwards called the club to ask about the rumours. #wwfc”
https://x.com/sportspeteo/status/2064959546829799533?s=61
Paper published in Nature, by Oxford, Cambs, Imperial researchers.
https://x.com/heynavtoor/status/2064797676475187520
You have noticed it. ChatGPT feels dumber than it used to. Your prompts that worked six months ago produce worse results now. The writing sounds flatter. The ideas sound safer. The internet itself feels like it is shrinking. Every article reads the same. Every email sounds the same. Every answer sounds like it was written by the same voice.
You thought it was you. It is not you.
Researchers at Oxford and Cambridge published a paper in Nature proving what is happening. They call it Model Collapse.
Here is the mechanism in one sentence. AI trained on AI-generated data gets dumber every generation until it forgets what real human data looked like.
You have the right to defend home and family with lethal force. In a civil society, you should expect the forces of the state to do it for you.
Just put out a message - anyone on the streets of Belfast with a molotov will he shot - and do it.
They are Prods so it shouldn't be too controversial
Ukraine is still fighting back, and in the last few months actually making headway at a cost of over a thousand Russian soldiers a day.
A proper club like Liverpool did the sacking of Arne Slot the right way, he was informed first then the media was informed.
Answer
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/06/10/germanys-hs2-delayed-five-years-engineering-blunder/
It may have been posted before but it is mindboggling.
On Ukraine, there is no doubt that the war has moved in their favour after a period when collapse did seem possible. Russia is being destroyed, not just on the battlefield but across much of the country. Its hard to see this lasting much more than a few more months.
Commies more realistic than nationalist kleptocrat Putin, who'd have thunk?
On repeated canvassing, it's only people who express doubt who are canvassed multiple times, and they mostly appear to welcome it - perhaps just the traditional English politeness, but there's also an element of "someone is really listening to me". There's an element of fed-upness that appears in the final week, but still generally offered with an apologetic smile.
But does it work? Mainly, I think, in eliminating parties who aren't doing it. I met numerous people who said "I usually vote X but they're not bothering this time". They're up for grabs, and are often quite glad to spend a minute talking it over.
But looking at the pictures, it appears to be the steel tensioning cables, that get buried in concrete and hold the whole track together.
I guess it’s amusing to see that the Germans are now just as bad at railways and airports as the Brits, but still scant consolation.
A serious problem far more worthy of attention - and investment - than the WASPI women.
About 1 million 16- to 24-year-olds are not in employment, education or training – and the obstacles they face are bigger than ever. Those unemployed for a year or more explain how they are coping
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2026/jun/11/young-ambitious-out-of-work-unemployment
What’s also clear about this war, much more than others recently, is the speed of the increase in the state of technology.
Crimea is now completely cut off from supply from the North, apart from one pontoon which will be gone by tomorrow. The only way in or out is now the Kerch Bridge, which isn’t going to last long if they have to start moving fuel on it. It’s already closed to lorries, and it appears the Ukranians are goading the Russians into sending a train of fuel tanks over the railway, with the inevitable outcome.
WWI ended because the Germans surrendered when they were losing to the point that an invasion of Germany itself was inevitable.
WWII ended because the Allies captured Berlin, Rome, Tokyo etc.
In a Brokenback War, final victory is impossible. Technical capabilities are steadily degraded - hence the crack about WWIV being fought with stick and stones - but the war continues.
It’s been said a thousand times that these things happen slowly until they happen quickly, and I think there’s now a sense in Ukraine that the Russian collapse is starting to happen quickly.
It's only with the development of domestic arms production, of medium and long range drones, that Ukraines has been able to take the fight to Russia.
With a more substantial response in the first year of the war, it might already be over, and we might not have seen the recent rapid evolution of drone war at all.
That's what makes this attention-grabbing frustration even more dangerious if it falls into the hands of Restore, a party with a lot of ex-BNP members led by a country squire fascist.
The downside, of course, is the huge cost that it has also inflicted on Ukraine.
I presume the terrorised residents will just be rehoused at considerable public expense, and letting homes be burnt is seen as normal for NI.
Though given how much they have exploited the "nothing is true and everything is possible" dynamic, it sort of serves them right.
There’s a lot of lessons from this war, starting with the West having way fewer weapons than they need, and with insufficient capacity to ramp production quickly.
On the other hand, the Russians now have no conventional army left. There’s no tanks, no APCs, almost no MRLS.
We all have a lot to learn from the Ukrainian defence industry when this is over.
We see the same happening in Iran and the Gulf, that small and cheap drones can now take out very expensive radars and missiles, or use up expensive air defences designed for enemy planes and ICBMs.
The Americans can build only 50-60 Patriot AD missiles per month, and the process for each one is two years. That’s totally inadequate in a modern war.
Also, there is no stowage other than hanging a rucksack on the back, which can be easily nicked.
*I lose track of when you're supposed to spell it with an f and when it's gh
Can I mention a personal celebration, please. Mrs C and I married 64 years ago today!
It might be entertaining now for anti-Faragists to watch his vote get split by a further-right party, but if Farage doesn't find it so funny, walks away from politics in a huff, and Reform then collapses in a heap - will it be so amusing when it is Restore cleaning up on the right-wing of British politics?
We were married on the 16th May 1964 so nearly 3 years to go to another card ourselves
No doubt we are both so grateful for all our blessings, and despite infirmity and age related issues we just keep taking the pills and happy to be together in a long marriage
I understand that many Ukrainians regard the war as having lasted twelve years already, since the 27th February 2014 Russian military occupation of Crimea.
I wouldn't say we've never had a cross word but we've always been able to kiss and make up before going to sleep that night!
Though we would have preferred the late Queen had carried on a wee bit longer
Wifey and I only have 53 years to go to that mark, by which time we’ll be be aged 101!
The report admits that this was straight out of the Burnham campaign.
It's the press release equivalent of a dodgy bar chart!
Russia will find ways to adapt and respond to Ukraine's recent successes. Expedients will be deployed to keep the war economy running.
An early end to the war only happens when Putin decides to bank the territorial gains made since 2022, and there's no way of predicting his psychology. Some people were speculating that he was near death in 2022, which turned out to be wildly optimistic. One presumes that predicting someone's psychological state of mind is harder than their physical health.
A primary school with just two pupils is to close at the end of the summer term.
Ysgol Y Garreg in Penrhyndeudraeth, Gwynedd, currently has no pupils in nursery, reception or years one to five.
Its remaining two Year six pupils are due to start secondary school in September.
Cyngor Gwynedd's cabinet voted unanimously to close the school on 31 August, saying it could not ignore the "seriousness of the situation".
The council said falling pupil numbers across the local authority had made the decision unavoidable, despite the school's long history at the heart of the community.
Dewi Jones, cabinet member for education, said the proposal was one of the most difficult decisions he had faced.
"Nobody goes into education in order to close schools," he said.
"Our ambition is to see schools thriving, children succeeding and communities staying strong."
He paid tribute to the staff, governors, parents and community, saying Ysgol Y Garreg had served the area faithfully for over a century.
The WWI comparison today is from 24th Feb 2022, when the “SMO” started with the assault on Kiyv.
They might well have spent significantly less if they smashed the invasion at the outset.
And the rebuilding costs would be far lower.
There’s a load of Europeans doing road trips around the US in conjunction with the World Cup, and American Twitter is all over them, they’re making local news programs.
One example, of many in the past couple of days.
https://x.com/secduffy/status/2064770890080870556
https://x.com/arbys/status/2064811736390123646
https://x.com/freddyla7/status/2064421329747550335
https://x.com/freddyla7/status/2064587316077744334 <<—this German tourist is getting tens of thousands of likes on every post.
Fully autonomous drones have killed human soldiers for the first time - https://www.newscientist.com/article/2529849-fully-autonomous-drones-have-killed-human-soldiers-for-the-first-time/
They’re awful human beings.
That is bad news for all of us.
This was quite telling. These two parties have VERY little in common other than offering fantasy solutions:
..While he doesn’t “particularly agree with any political party”, he believes only two, the Green party and Reform UK, “seem to have an agenda for young people”..
The political mainstream needs to get its act together.
The six counties is rotten on both sides
“Come on Locke, fuckin’ well open, you Kant!”
Car thief died after philopshy professor put him in headlock
Burglar attacked academic like a ‘trapped wild animal’ before cardiac arrest, inquest told
A thief died after a professor put him in a headlock, an inquest has heard.
Daniel Smith, 35, tried to use a car belonging to Charles Thame, a philosophy professor, as a getaway vehicle – but the academic climbed into the passenger seat and put him in a headlock.
The thief was running from police from an unconnected burglary in Axminster, Devon, in July 2022, when he stole Prof Thame’s car keys from his unlocked house, according to The Times.
As Smith tried to drive away in the vehicle, Prof Thame, who teaches at Thammasat University, Bangkok, Thailand, jumped into the passenger seat.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/06/10/car-thief-died-professor-headlock-burglary-devon/
Catholic areas are historically more crowded.
I'm open to being corrected by those with greater knowledge of NI, but that's probably more significant than any ideological differences.
Russia and Putin obviously have their maximalist objectives - the whole Ukrainian Black Sea coast annexed to Russia, a rump Ukrainian client state, etc - but you can envisage circumstances in which they will accept those are not achievable by continuing the hot phase of the war for now, and settle temporarily for a ceasefire on the current front lines, even though doing so would leave large parts of the territory that they claim as part of Russia in Ukrainian hands. This is one of the factors that makes it hard for Ukraine to regain large quantities of territory. As soon as Putin accepts that Ukraine have the upper hand, and that Russia cannot regain it without a pause in the fighting, Russia can declare a ceasefire and Ukraine would be under pressure from Europe and its war-weary population to accept it. But while Russia might be able to accept Ukraine in possession of parts of Donetsk, the same could not be said about Crimea.
If Ukraine can cut off supplies to Crimea it would make a Ukrainian operation to land and supply troops in part of Crimea that much more feasible, as the Russian troops in Crimea would have limited supplies with which to mount a defence. If part of Crimea is held by Ukraine then it becomes a lot harder for Russia to accept a ceasefire, and that creates more of an opportunity for the war to continue until Ukraine has regained much more territory.
This sounds wildly ambitious on Ukraine's part, and could easily become a massive failure. But Ukraine showed with their attack into Kursk Oblast a willingness to take bold action. I can't otherwise make much sense of a particular focus on disrupting supplies to Crimea, rather than to the southern front in general. Ukraine has recently mounted a special forces raid on the Russian occupied Kinburn spit, which could be seen as an operation to test equipment and tactics for a larger scale assault on Crimea.
Starmer, dismal as he is, is prepared to sometimes say no to people. He doesn't always stick to it, but he is prepared to say it. Which is preferable to what looks like it's coming next
If you’re a Russian solider in Crimea, you know you’re a few weeks away from sending people to find animals in fields for dinner, and wondering where the next ammo is coming from.
The West also underestimated Russian willingness to fight a long war while suffering high casualties, so they didn't think it was necessary to provide enough support for Ukraine to win, only enough for Ukraine to continue to fight for as long as it takes for Russia to call it quits.
Lucy Fisher
@LOS_Fisher
NEW: Andy Burnham faces Labour backlash over support for Waspi women
One government figure decried Burnham’s hint about a major compensation spending pledge as “pathetic”, adding: “He can’t say no to anyone.”
A Starmer ally suggested Burnham’s move was Corbynite, adding: “Keir literally won by not being this version of the Labour party.”
https://x.com/LOS_Fisher/status/2064995072681148608
Generally speaking the Loyalist terror groups were more focused on sectarian killings of Catholics while Republican terror groups focused more on killing members of the security forces. Both sides were awful but they were not quite the same. The Republicans viewed themselves as being at war with the British state while Loyalists viewed themselves as protecting themselves against Catholic encroachment. This meant that one side was more nakedly sectarian than the other.
He seems to be going on about de-industrialisation . Exactly what is he going to do to combat that with no money and we’re living in a different world now .
Indeed the concern is that voters will be even more merciless towards him . Having promised big changes there’s only so much that his better communication and apparent northern charm can cover up for the reality of the current financial situation.
https://x.com/BristOliver/status/2064981458570104989
"It's pointless him promising this because none of these people read the news anyway"
The problem here its that even if it has no children now, there might be some in a year or to so we mothball the school not close it.
It might seem daft to keep a school open with only a handful of kids, but if the alternative is busing five and six year olds for over at hour twice a day, sometimes it's the least worst option.
Peter.
Nigel joined PB whereupon
He promptly vented his spleen thereon
The threaded header intervened and anon
His emanation evanished and was gone.