Labour’s share of the vote in Makerfield – politicalbetting.com
Labour’s share of the vote in Makerfield – politicalbetting.com
The latest Survation poll had Andy Burnham polling on 49% and it isn’t a stretch to see Labour polling over 50% which makes the 7/2 on Labour polling 50% to 54.99% look attractive.
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Politics has to change and it starts with Starmer leaving office
Her problem like Starmer's is they have no political nous.
Conversely a dream team of Burnham and Streeting would lack in deep thinking of policy but are outstanding communication wise and do the day to day politics very very well.
Conversely, some may not like being used by Burnham as a mere stepping stone on his path to greater things.
I think today's Matt cartoon captures this very well.
Burnham is a no change candidate
A bit of changing the window dressing but fundamentally business as ususal
Liz Truss had a very strong sense of purpose.
In further echoes of Hillsborough, I see that the victims of the Nottingham attack were tested for drugs:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5ywd4gdzk1o
It was a disiaster
If you honestly believe this is "exceptionally well" you need to reset your sights and aspirations.
Camilla Tominey, and Tim Stanley, interviewing Michael Gove (out of politics, now Spectator editor).
Camilla was trying to out-intellectual Gove, with a predictable outcome - Gove is a good tactical talker, and they got into an argument about whether Reform or Kemi's Conservatives are "more right wing". That's not a useful criterion of virtue to me, and I think most of us on PB, whatever our views, have moved on and at least split the analysis between social policy and economic policy.
Gove states bluntly that he will NOT be going back into politics. Tominey declares that the Daily Telegraph does NOT back Reform. Inevitably there is a conversation about "experts".
Were I there, I would try to push on the one-dimensional analysis and ask Tominey what she thinks of the politics of Hilaire Belloc and GK Chesterton, and how it compares to Reform; Tim Stanley might have a better answer to that one.
Stanley points out one thing that has been lost: the Henry Nowak murder happened under the previous Government. That Starmer has not driven this point (or I may have missed it) is perhaps an example of him trying to be Prime Ministerial, and lacking a killer political instinct.
30 minutes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UIWdgvuV0eY
That - and to encourage wealth into this country, not departing it.
The theme which runs through the Nowak murder, the Nottingham murders, the Southport murders and the Fordingbridge rapes is DEI.
With the criminals deemed to need 'equity' even if that requires demeaning the victims.
The anecdotes I have heard are more mixed. Burnham doing much better in the areas he represented as an MP (Hindley, Hindley Green and the small sliver of Westleigh), and where he almost lives and has been regularly seen for many years out jogging and shopping (Ashton). He's out performing the local elections by a country mile there. Extrapolating those wards he wins by a ways. Less so elsewhere.
So says my very small sample of anecdotes.
Still think he'll win. But 50% would be a stretch.
Possibility of a new party devoted to them - Nona the Above.
Still not sure for what though. Settled bet history greyed out.
IMO the last Government showed decisively that tactics, austerity, closing down things that work well for our society (eg Sure Start), and shovelling the money into inflating housing demand, will fail, and as I see it the Cons have doubled down on a failed past rather than find some different or new ideas.
Obviously Brexit remains the elephant in the room, and the Cons are still chasing their delusion - of which the prospects of much success have been destroyed by geopolitics. Again, they are doubling down on their failure. It's as if the Conservative Party has been wilfully lobotomised.
I can, and have, point out things they do well. But they are, in "de Bono" terms, still digging in the same hole.
She also has an affliction of appearing to have a wasp continually stinging her mouth.
That 2 months will stain UK credibility for decades.
Everyone needs to lose out, no exceptions.
The report is a year away but i expect it will be explosive.
In every case I can recall, where there was a controversy about a death relating to the police, this kind of briefing occurred.
de Menezes, Tomlinson etc etc
In principle Britain could re-establish its own fiscal credibility, independently of Germany. Britain had fiscal credibility in the past.
It's an open question as to whether Germany would be willing and able to enforce fiscal rectitude on a large Euro member, such as France, or Britain, were Britain to be a member. It's possible that were Britain to join the Euro in circumstances similar to the present that the result would be to make Euro bond rates higher, rather than British bond rates lower.
Streeting cannot win a popular vote amongst Members but he is an outstanding communicator and gas a vision of a modern social Democrat
It would be a huge error to allow that talent to be wasted and an agreement between the pair to support each other and the Party would be Labour's best electoral hope.
Less Blair and Brown
More Osborne and Cameron
In terms of pulling in the same direction.
Labour does have a significant number of talented 40 somethings who can begin to gain experience.
If Survation is currently at 49%, there's a scenario in which a total anti-Starmer/anti-Farage vote pays out.
Update: this is the Stanley quote.
"All the policing stuff, that we are now tearing our hair out (about), following Henry Novak's death - it happened under you."
https://youtu.be/UIWdgvuV0eY?t=575
That needs me to correct. I should have gone back and checked an extra time. So - my bad.
It's not as though the EU's largest economies are much more fiscally continent.
There.
https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/high-price-fight-against-inflation-case-euro-area
We all know that they wouldn't.
The fact that this fails every time is irrelevant.
Because that would be a £50bn tax reduction with no change in overall public spending.
A variant of Liz Truss's 'spend ourselves rich' strategy.
Where is that extra £25bn of spending coming from?
DavidL said:
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Its not entirely a one way street and these breakfast clubs are probably taking some of the pressure off some grandmas. But the triple lock, additional tax relief, the relief from NI contributions, free TV licences, and of course our very generous offsets for pension contributions all favour the more mature in our society. The young are getting a very raw deal at the moment.
You need to take off those rose tinted specs David. They are flinging everything but the kitchen sink at young ones nowadays. Back when we were poor everybody was on their own , the government gave you the equivalent of hee haw and people got on and worked for a living instead of constant whining about how tough it is living on £100K and paying someone to watch their offspring. Country is full of spoiled pretentious wankers whose only skill is gimme gimme gimme and whining about rich people instead of making themselves rich or living within their means
I’ve been stabbed.
No you haven’t mate.
For example, it has come out that by using a certain legalistic phrasing of reporting an alleged offence , a member of the public can weaponise the police to aggressively harass a given target.
You’d think that this would result in such complaints being dealt with using discretion.
Nope, it’s still going on. Because discretion is a dirty word.
Note the failure to follow “procedure” when not checking a victim for wounds, despite blood coming out of his mouth. The allegiance to “process” is selective - a phycologist could write reams on how such officialdom prioritises inside their heads. They claim to be bound by Process, yet strangely…
Young men of all varieties tend to be viewed as the 'enemy' by plod. With some justification given the demographics of actual criminals.
I just suspect that the plods would have acted differently with regard to the handcuffing - not perhaps out of any sensitivity to the victim but rather to cover their own arses from the job threatening accusation of racism.
England looking good
I recall reading the comments as England collapsed in the first innings and apparently it was all over
Sport, like politics, is so unpredictable
Ben Judah
@b_judah
The growing risk of a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation system, of which the Gulf Stream is part, is nothing less than the number one long-term security threat to our way of life in Britain, Europe and the Western world in the era in which we live.
The consequences on our societies of an AMOC collapse would be simply devastating for Britain especially, beyond anything imaginable but a full blown super pandemic or nuclear war — with scientists modelling temperatures dropping around 15.c and half of our arable land being lost.
This is just one of many climate catastrophes starring at us of the modelling and the observed data and is why it is why Labour has continued to place such importance on Net Zero and international climate talks despite the Greens and progressive activists now looking elsewhere post-October 7th and the Conservatives joining Reform in now campaigning against them.
https://x.com/b_judah/status/2063540337939710222
Streeting is New Labour and Burnham is now more old Labour tax and spend and nationalise.
I’d much rather they lose because then the management might finally get sacked.
I don't want Burnham, as I can't stand his sense of entitlement.
My choice would be one of Mahmood or Phillipson. Two capable women, who could do a much better job than Starmer of setting a direction and selling it to the nation.