A real election result from tonight. (Figures from the VoteUK forum).
"Westmorland & Furness: Hawcoat & New Barn
Reform gain from Conservative, with change since 2022 in brackets
Reform 1,139 (48.4%/new) Labour 576 (24.5%/-10.9%) Conservative 447 (19%/-22.9%) Green 121 (5.1%/new) Liberal democrat 69 (2.9%/-2.9%)"
Kemis new Con Army in meltdown
Reform and Restore to it's Right and no one believing it's current Leadership is anything but Right Wing Tory.
She can wear pale Blue, sky Blue , light Blue, the Tories will only be considered credible, relevant , electable wen they find a new Leader who is a genuine mature centre right Politician
I think keeping Kemi is probably the Tories best option, not so much because she is good, more that all the alternatives are even worse.
In a political environment where both Reform and Restore are campaigning as overtly racist, voters are not going to switch to a right wing party led by a Black woman.
If they like that racially divisive politics they will vote Reform/Restore, if they loathe it they will vote Lab/LD/Green/SNP/PC.
Her best chance is to get completely away from the Culture War Social Media stuff and concentrate on bread and butter issues that matter to the voters such as the economy, taxation and education.
Badenoch is trying to eat Farage's lunch. If I were a Tory (which thankfully I am not) I would be very nervous for the next general election.
Despite the ramping on here, I see incompetence of an order we would not see with Cleverly or Hunt as LOTO. David Cameron writing her speeches and prepping her for PMQs does not change that.
OMG, how dare a female Conservative politician follow in the footsteps on her female predessors as a leader of her party and then have the temerity to have the political intelligence and charisma along with an ability to think on her feet and tell it like it is?!
Are you going to South Aberdeen and putting this point to the voters there? Surely the open racism and sexism you allege would be a vote winner for Kemi there. Tories should be a shoe-in.
As a matter of interest has Badenoch been up to campaign in either or both of the Scottish byelections? Or any Labour front bencher?
Man who gets people fired because they told a joke about him expects no hard feelings from the Ayatollah.
Acyn @Acyn · 11h Trump: If I did meet with the new Ayatollah, I would be honored to meet him.
Doocy: Do you think because Epic Fury killed his killed his dad and his wife and his kid that he's has hard feelings?
Trump: I would say I'm not his favorite person, but with that being said, he's probably a pro—I don't know him—he's probably a professional in some circles, he has a very good reputation actually, you know, sometimes when people say bad, but a lot of people say bad about me . It's totally false, of course.
I watched Question Time for the first time in a couple of years last night. A brief summary. Reform have picked a duffer. Rob looked like a rabbit caught in the headlights, and his biggest weakness, more significant than his social media history, was that he just doesn't know, or understand, much at all. Burnham was just Burnham. The Tory was quite appealing - civilised, pleasant and reasonable, rather old school. The other two (Green and Lib Dem) didn't really register much, though they were both much more articulate than Rob.
I really don't understand why Reform have put up such a weak candidate (though I don't mind). The contrast between sassy Hannah the plumber in Gorton & Denton and Rob the plumber in Makerfield is huge, irrespective of their political stances.
It could just be that the average ability of Reform.candidates, as illustrated by their antics when actually elected on councils, isn't t too high, so they don't have too big a pool of talent to draw on. They're still essentially a Farage vehicle witn plutocratic donors, despite all their performance and the media noise with the polls.
How many troops has Russia lost since the war began?
The Ukrainian estimate for total casualties (killed, wounded, captured, missing) is 1,370,890. Most other estimates (NATO, independent analysts, national intelligence agencies) come in pretty close to that.
Remember that, unlike with artillery shells, most drones will capture a final image of their target, and many drone attacks are observed by other drones too. The Ukrainian estimates are likely to be the most accurate estimates of enemy losses in any war in history for that reason.
Military deaths are estimated at just over a quarter of total casualties, 362,000 or so. I've seen it suggested that the proportion of battlefield casualties that die is increasing, partly because drones are more accurate and lethal than artillery, and partly because drones make it so hard to evacuate battlefield casualties for medical treatment.
The Mediazona/BBC count of names of Russian war dead (from local newspaper death notices and the like) stands at 221,206 - this is very much a lower bound. They also have an estimate of ~352k dead from probate registry records.
Two weeks this morning Burnham is most likely to be on his way to Parliament having stated last night he will join the labour leadership race
Starmer's immediate response was there is no race and there is a process
Starmer is living on another planet and if Burnham does arrive in Parliament then I expect Starmer's cabinet will tell him to go
I like Burnham and it remains to be seen how it unfolds but for all the anti Kemi stuff on here he openly praised his conservative opponent and Kemi on Question Time on their response to the Norwak scandal
For me I want Starmer gone, and the sooner the better and look forward to Andy v Kemi at PMQs
And for the avoidance of doubt this conservative would vote Burnham in Makerfield to beat Farage's mob
Kemi may fail and let Farage through, but she has improved immensely and there will always be a left right split but at present anyone wanting the best for our country is for Andy to succeed and Farage put back in his box
All sensible points Big_G, except Starmer is not 'living on another planet'. What else could he say? He can hardly say 'Oh yes, I am just waiting for Andy to win and then I'm off'.
I think he is in his own mind but he does look a shadow of a PM
A real election result from tonight. (Figures from the VoteUK forum).
"Westmorland & Furness: Hawcoat & New Barn
Reform gain from Conservative, with change since 2022 in brackets
Reform 1,139 (48.4%/new) Labour 576 (24.5%/-10.9%) Conservative 447 (19%/-22.9%) Green 121 (5.1%/new) Liberal democrat 69 (2.9%/-2.9%)"
Kemis new Con Army in meltdown
Reform and Restore to it's Right and no one believing it's current Leadership is anything but Right Wing Tory.
She can wear pale Blue, sky Blue , light Blue, the Tories will only be considered credible, relevant , electable wen they find a new Leader who is a genuine mature centre right Politician
I think keeping Kemi is probably the Tories best option, not so much because she is good, more that all the alternatives are even worse.
In a political environment where both Reform and Restore are campaigning as overtly racist, voters are not going to switch to a right wing party led by a Black woman.
If they like that racially divisive politics they will vote Reform/Restore, if they loathe it they will vote Lab/LD/Green/SNP/PC.
Her best chance is to get completely away from the Culture War Social Media stuff and concentrate on bread and butter issues that matter to the voters such as the economy, taxation and education.
Oh I am bookmarking this absolutely awful political prediction post by you Foxy, its utterly on another level when it comes to the left leaning chauvinistic male view of politics on this site!! I just have no words other than I am not surprised this site now has a real cross party women contribution problem when it comes to reading pig ignorant patronising posts like this!!
Seriously did you even engage your brain or read back your comment before posting it?! More importantly, did you even bother to recognise the current rising personal polling of that incredible politically talented and charismatic black woman leading the Conservative party right now who is currently taking on both the far right and left flank of UK politics to take control of the central ground in British politics by good old honest talking sense?!
If it were so, why are the Tories languishing on 17%, down 7% from the GE?
(Also: "left leaning chauvinistic male view of politics on this site" - Left leaning?? Sure, there are a few of us on here who are left of centre but we're easily outnumbered by those on the right. Which is fine - I hope PB never becomes the sole preserve of the left or the right.)
Where are the regular cross party female posters on this site these days?! And no, you are not outnumbered by those on the right, please don't insult our intelligence, this site has become the preserve of the left leaning Dads shed issue men on the left and that is why its so patronisingly boring and more importantly out of touch! It is also why that dismissive and frankly patronising Foxy post earlier was an absolutely classic of this genre of the theme of this site these days and yet so quickly accepted and why it made me so angry!
What has happened to this once incredible politically robust cross party debating site, and one that originally welcomed a growing cross party female perspective despite the awful misogyny of the odd poster on here which I and others had the misfortune to come under attack from because we were females from the centre right of politics.
A real election result from tonight. (Figures from the VoteUK forum).
"Westmorland & Furness: Hawcoat & New Barn
Reform gain from Conservative, with change since 2022 in brackets
Reform 1,139 (48.4%/new) Labour 576 (24.5%/-10.9%) Conservative 447 (19%/-22.9%) Green 121 (5.1%/new) Liberal democrat 69 (2.9%/-2.9%)"
Kemis new Con Army in meltdown
Reform and Restore to it's Right and no one believing it's current Leadership is anything but Right Wing Tory.
She can wear pale Blue, sky Blue , light Blue, the Tories will only be considered credible, relevant , electable wen they find a new Leader who is a genuine mature centre right Politician
I think keeping Kemi is probably the Tories best option, not so much because she is good, more that all the alternatives are even worse.
In a political environment where both Reform and Restore are campaigning as overtly racist, voters are not going to switch to a right wing party led by a Black woman.
If they like that racially divisive politics they will vote Reform/Restore, if they loathe it they will vote Lab/LD/Green/SNP/PC.
Her best chance is to get completely away from the Culture War Social Media stuff and concentrate on bread and butter issues that matter to the voters such as the economy, taxation and education.
Badenoch is trying to eat Farage's lunch. If I were a Tory (which thankfully I am not) I would be very nervous for the next general election.
Despite the ramping on here, I see incompetence of an order we would not see with Cleverly or Hunt as LOTO. David Cameron writing her speeches and prepping her for PMQs does not change that.
OMG, how dare a female Conservative politician follow in the footsteps on her female predessors as a leader of her party and then have the temerity to have the political intelligence and charisma along with an ability to think on her feet and tell it like it is?!
Are you going to South Aberdeen and putting this point to the voters there? Surely the open racism and sexism you allege would be a vote winner for Kemi there. Tories should be a shoe-in.
As a matter of interest has Badenoch been up to campaign in either or both of the Scottish byelections? Or any Labour front bencher?
If not, why not?
She was up before the recent Holyrood elections where the SCons had their worst ever result. One can't say Kemi isn't an optimist.
Kemi Badenoch voices hope for Tory first minister in Scotland after May election
This by election is Reform v not Reform. OK. It isn't really because it's sui generis. A governing party candidate running to usurp the government. And a class performer v some local semi pros. But it does point up how a GE could go if it becomes framed as Reform v not Reform. Rather than Labour v not Labour.
I really think that's a mistaken reading. If it weren't for the Burnham effect I think Reform would be on over 50% in this seat - it is 32nd on their target list after all - and all the tactical voting in the world wouldn't be able to stop them.
Secondly, it's a bazillion times easier to work out the tactical voting choice in a by-election involving a main character like Burnham, than in hundreds of different seats at a GE. Even look at how the not Reform vote was split in Gorton and Denton.
In many ways I think the next GE will be one where there's a vicious battle to establish who is the tactical voting choice in each seat to defeat Reform in the GE afterwards. And the aftermath of the GE will determine whether the Tories are part of the not Reform opposition or prepared to play the role of Farage's little helpers.
I think your last paragraph is wrong. In the vast majority of seats it is obvious who the anti-Reform tactical vote is. This is because there is a sitting Lab/LD/SNP/PC/Green/Ind MP.
But Labour have lost potentially around half their vote since the last general election, so the results of the last GE are not the starting point for tactical voting.
There will be loads of seats where the incumbent Labour MP is not best placed to defeat Reform. It's unrealistic to expect voters to re-elect the Labour government with another landslide majority after their major disappointments with that Labour government.
So you must concede that it is obvious in 200 or so Labour and all LD/SNP/PC/Green/Indy held seats who the tactical choice is. Which leave 200 or so Lab held seats vulnerable to Reform. In how many of these is there a non-Reform party that can win from second or third place? I suspect less than half, so in around 400 or so seats it is obvious who the non-Reform option is.
Most of the remainder are Tory held, there it is a trickier choice, particularly when Badenoch fails to differentiate from Reform policy.
No, I don't concede that. I haven't looked at the seat numbers in detail.
I watched Question Time for the first time in a couple of years last night. A brief summary. Reform have picked a duffer. Rob looked like a rabbit caught in the headlights, and his biggest weakness, more significant than his social media history, was that he just doesn't know, or understand, much at all. Burnham was just Burnham. The Tory was quite appealing - civilised, pleasant and reasonable, rather old school. The other two (Green and Lib Dem) didn't really register much, though they were both much more articulate than Rob.
I really don't understand why Reform have put up such a weak candidate (though I don't mind). The contrast between sassy Hannah the plumber in Gorton & Denton and Rob the plumber in Makerfield is huge, irrespective of their political stances.
Kenyon was the incumbent candidate fro, 2024 so I get why inertia may have carried him.
As for why him, why not? The assumption amongst many parties is that northerners are thick, so have a candidate to match. From a posh southern Reform perspective that lot don't know any better, just shout immigrants at them and they'll vote for anything.
The comedy is that last night highlighted the real choice here. If people want change there is a candidate who is articulate, passionate, creative and has a clear plan to change how stuff gets done. Or you have Mr women are slags.
Reform's vote has been sliding for a while nationally, the "tight" claim of this by-election now replaced by a 10pt Burnham lead, and I expect that to widen further.
A real election result from tonight. (Figures from the VoteUK forum).
"Westmorland & Furness: Hawcoat & New Barn
Reform gain from Conservative, with change since 2022 in brackets
Reform 1,139 (48.4%/new) Labour 576 (24.5%/-10.9%) Conservative 447 (19%/-22.9%) Green 121 (5.1%/new) Liberal democrat 69 (2.9%/-2.9%)"
Kemis new Con Army in meltdown
Reform and Restore to it's Right and no one believing it's current Leadership is anything but Right Wing Tory.
She can wear pale Blue, sky Blue , light Blue, the Tories will only be considered credible, relevant , electable wen they find a new Leader who is a genuine mature centre right Politician
I think keeping Kemi is probably the Tories best option, not so much because she is good, more that all the alternatives are even worse.
In a political environment where both Reform and Restore are campaigning as overtly racist, voters are not going to switch to a right wing party led by a Black woman.
If they like that racially divisive politics they will vote Reform/Restore, if they loathe it they will vote Lab/LD/Green/SNP/PC.
Her best chance is to get completely away from the Culture War Social Media stuff and concentrate on bread and butter issues that matter to the voters such as the economy, taxation and education.
Oh I am bookmarking this absolutely awful political prediction post by you Foxy, its utterly on another level when it comes to the left leaning chauvinistic male view of politics on this site!! I just have no words other than I am not surprised this site now has a real cross party women contribution problem when it comes to reading pig ignorant patronising posts like this!!
Seriously did you even engage your brain or read back your comment before posting it?! More importantly, did you even bother to recognise the current rising personal polling of that incredible politically talented and charismatic black woman leading the Conservative party right now who is currently taking on both the far right and left flank of UK politics to take control of the central ground in British politics by good old honest talking sense?!
I agree with Foxy that she got the gig as the least worst alternative. She's not very good but seems now to have a minder who is guiding her towards the centre even though she tends towards hard right. Is Dave in the background?
You can bookmark me too. BigG already has but we agreed to disagree.
Cleverly was the least worst option electorally, his failure to make the last 2 just typified the incompetence in the remnants of the PCP.
A real election result from tonight. (Figures from the VoteUK forum).
"Westmorland & Furness: Hawcoat & New Barn
Reform gain from Conservative, with change since 2022 in brackets
Reform 1,139 (48.4%/new) Labour 576 (24.5%/-10.9%) Conservative 447 (19%/-22.9%) Green 121 (5.1%/new) Liberal democrat 69 (2.9%/-2.9%)"
Kemis new Con Army in meltdown
Reform and Restore to it's Right and no one believing it's current Leadership is anything but Right Wing Tory.
She can wear pale Blue, sky Blue , light Blue, the Tories will only be considered credible, relevant , electable wen they find a new Leader who is a genuine mature centre right Politician
I think keeping Kemi is probably the Tories best option, not so much because she is good, more that all the alternatives are even worse.
In a political environment where both Reform and Restore are campaigning as overtly racist, voters are not going to switch to a right wing party led by a Black woman.
If they like that racially divisive politics they will vote Reform/Restore, if they loathe it they will vote Lab/LD/Green/SNP/PC.
Her best chance is to get completely away from the Culture War Social Media stuff and concentrate on bread and butter issues that matter to the voters such as the economy, taxation and education.
Oh I am bookmarking this absolutely awful political prediction post by you Foxy, its utterly on another level when it comes to the left leaning chauvinistic male view of politics on this site!! I just have no words other than I am not surprised this site now has a real cross party women contribution problem when it comes to reading pig ignorant patronising posts like this!!
Seriously did you even engage your brain or read back your comment before posting it?! More importantly, did you even bother to recognise the current rising personal polling of that incredible politically talented and charismatic black woman leading the Conservative party right now who is currently taking on both the far right and left flank of UK politics to take control of the central ground in British politics by good old honest talking sense?!
If it were so, why are the Tories languishing on 17%, down 7% from the GE?
(Also: "left leaning chauvinistic male view of politics on this site" - Left leaning?? Sure, there are a few of us on here who are left of centre but we're easily outnumbered by those on the right. Which is fine - I hope PB never becomes the sole preserve of the left or the right.)
that 7% could simply be because the Tories don't look likely to win my constituency/ward anymore who else should I vote for.
I do wonder (and it's hard to work out) what percentage of Labour / Tory voters were anti Tory / anti Labour voters picking the other option that could win.
Digging into that last para - my view is that that the number of Con votes which came purely from 'best option to beat Labour' was at least three quarters of their total, and vice versa. For a long time the big two parties kidded themselves that they were, if not popular, then at least had a solid base of voters who supported them. They didn't. Those voters just really disliked the other lot.
I watched Question Time for the first time in a couple of years last night. A brief summary. Reform have picked a duffer. Rob looked like a rabbit caught in the headlights, and his biggest weakness, more significant than his social media history, was that he just doesn't know, or understand, much at all. Burnham was just Burnham. The Tory was quite appealing - civilised, pleasant and reasonable, rather old school. The other two (Green and Lib Dem) didn't really register much, though they were both much more articulate than Rob.
I really don't understand why Reform have put up such a weak candidate (though I don't mind). The contrast between sassy Hannah the plumber in Gorton & Denton and Rob the plumber in Makerfield is huge, irrespective of their political stances.
Anecdata:
Female plumbers in my experience tend to be a cut above male plumbers intellectually.
Male plumbers I have met are quite traditional blue collar men - with the normal range from civilised to knuckle-dragging. Female plumbers tend to be women who could had had what would have been thought of as "better options", but have been constrained.
For example, I knew a senior project manager running multi-hundred k IT projects back in the noughties who switched to plumbing, and my current plumber is a women who left the police force due to work flexibility being insufficient to make raising her children practical.
There are many issues that Reform could campaign on but seem to concentrate on immigration. They are often tagged as racist and may be so. Or they could be very good political operators that see an hot-button issue that will never be solved over this next generation. Local news highlighting the large drop in primary school intake (10% - 13%) compared to a decade ago. This compares to Adult Social Care and SEND eating up Local Authority budgets.
So the usual reminder that Reform and Restore don't have solutions. Or if their solutions were implemented we'd (aka the young taxpayers) be in a very difficult position in terms of supporting the domestic population. Remove immigration and the line drops significantly.
A real election result from tonight. (Figures from the VoteUK forum).
"Westmorland & Furness: Hawcoat & New Barn
Reform gain from Conservative, with change since 2022 in brackets
Reform 1,139 (48.4%/new) Labour 576 (24.5%/-10.9%) Conservative 447 (19%/-22.9%) Green 121 (5.1%/new) Liberal democrat 69 (2.9%/-2.9%)"
Kemis new Con Army in meltdown
Reform and Restore to it's Right and no one believing it's current Leadership is anything but Right Wing Tory.
She can wear pale Blue, sky Blue , light Blue, the Tories will only be considered credible, relevant , electable wen they find a new Leader who is a genuine mature centre right Politician
Your personal obsession with Kemi is hilarious.
I can only assume she once sacked you, refused to offer you a job, or rejected your advances.
Rumour is she jilted him for Big_G. (A purely platonic relationship)
I think you will find Kemi has a growing list of admirers and most, if not all, of them are not an 82 year old struggling with health and mobility but delighted to see a black women leading the conservative party in this time of so much division
Man who gets people fired because they told a joke about him expects no hard feelings from the Ayatollah.
Acyn @Acyn · 11h Trump: If I did meet with the new Ayatollah, I would be honored to meet him.
Doocy: Do you think because Epic Fury killed his killed his dad and his wife and his kid that he's has hard feelings?
Trump: I would say I'm not his favorite person, but with that being said, he's probably a pro—I don't know him—he's probably a professional in some circles, he has a very good reputation actually, you know, sometimes when people say bad, but a lot of people say bad about me . It's totally false, of course.
A real election result from tonight. (Figures from the VoteUK forum).
"Westmorland & Furness: Hawcoat & New Barn
Reform gain from Conservative, with change since 2022 in brackets
Reform 1,139 (48.4%/new) Labour 576 (24.5%/-10.9%) Conservative 447 (19%/-22.9%) Green 121 (5.1%/new) Liberal democrat 69 (2.9%/-2.9%)"
Kemis new Con Army in meltdown
Reform and Restore to it's Right and no one believing it's current Leadership is anything but Right Wing Tory.
She can wear pale Blue, sky Blue , light Blue, the Tories will only be considered credible, relevant , electable wen they find a new Leader who is a genuine mature centre right Politician
I think keeping Kemi is probably the Tories best option, not so much because she is good, more that all the alternatives are even worse.
In a political environment where both Reform and Restore are campaigning as overtly racist, voters are not going to switch to a right wing party led by a Black woman.
If they like that racially divisive politics they will vote Reform/Restore, if they loathe it they will vote Lab/LD/Green/SNP/PC.
Her best chance is to get completely away from the Culture War Social Media stuff and concentrate on bread and butter issues that matter to the voters such as the economy, taxation and education.
Badenoch is trying to eat Farage's lunch. If I were a Tory (which thankfully I am not) I would be very nervous for the next general election.
Despite the ramping on here, I see incompetence of an order we would not see with Cleverly or Hunt as LOTO. David Cameron writing her speeches and prepping her for PMQs does not change that.
OMG, how dare a female Conservative politician follow in the footsteps on her female predessors as a leader of her party and then have the temerity to have the political intelligence and charisma along with an ability to think on her feet and tell it like it is?!
Are you going to South Aberdeen and putting this point to the voters there? Surely the open racism and sexism you allege would be a vote winner for Kemi there. Tories should be a shoe-in.
As a matter of interest has Badenoch been up to campaign in either or both of the Scottish byelections? Or any Labour front bencher?
If not, why not?
Badenoch went up to Aberdeen South. I don't know if she has or has not been to the other.
I watched Question Time for the first time in a couple of years last night. A brief summary. Reform have picked a duffer. Rob looked like a rabbit caught in the headlights, and his biggest weakness, more significant than his social media history, was that he just doesn't know, or understand, much at all. Burnham was just Burnham. The Tory was quite appealing - civilised, pleasant and reasonable, rather old school. The other two (Green and Lib Dem) didn't really register much, though they were both much more articulate than Rob.
I really don't understand why Reform have put up such a weak candidate (though I don't mind). The contrast between sassy Hannah the plumber in Gorton & Denton and Rob the plumber in Makerfield is huge, irrespective of their political stances.
I didn't see it, but did see an interview on Channel 4 News about his social media posting history. It was hand covering my face cringeworthy, and I wondered why on earth he agreed to do it.
I watched Question Time for the first time in a couple of years last night. A brief summary. Reform have picked a duffer. Rob looked like a rabbit caught in the headlights, and his biggest weakness, more significant than his social media history, was that he just doesn't know, or understand, much at all. Burnham was just Burnham. The Tory was quite appealing - civilised, pleasant and reasonable, rather old school. The other two (Green and Lib Dem) didn't really register much, though they were both much more articulate than Rob.
I really don't understand why Reform have put up such a weak candidate (though I don't mind). The contrast between sassy Hannah the plumber in Gorton & Denton and Rob the plumber in Makerfield is huge, irrespective of their political stances.
Reform's problem is that Farage wants to lead a protest movement not an alternative future government.
So its going to be a series of untrained candidates and undeveloped policies.
Farage should have been using his donated money to turn Reform into a professional outfit.
Yesterday I spent the evening with two of my Green supporting/Starmer hating female friends.
Both of them admitted they would vote Labour (even with Starmer) because of Farage's incitement over the Henry Nowak murder.
It's a bit like PB's BigJohnOwls voting for Starmer.
Is that recent for them?
It's a bit concerning if they took so long to notice the problems.
Also what sort of Greens? Local Politics Greens or National Politics Greens?
Makes perfect sense. My number one priority would be voting to keeo Farage out and his behaviour over the Nowak case was a timely reminder of what a repellent human being he is
A real election result from tonight. (Figures from the VoteUK forum).
"Westmorland & Furness: Hawcoat & New Barn
Reform gain from Conservative, with change since 2022 in brackets
Reform 1,139 (48.4%/new) Labour 576 (24.5%/-10.9%) Conservative 447 (19%/-22.9%) Green 121 (5.1%/new) Liberal democrat 69 (2.9%/-2.9%)"
Kemis new Con Army in meltdown
Reform and Restore to it's Right and no one believing it's current Leadership is anything but Right Wing Tory.
She can wear pale Blue, sky Blue , light Blue, the Tories will only be considered credible, relevant , electable wen they find a new Leader who is a genuine mature centre right Politician
I think keeping Kemi is probably the Tories best option, not so much because she is good, more that all the alternatives are even worse.
In a political environment where both Reform and Restore are campaigning as overtly racist, voters are not going to switch to a right wing party led by a Black woman.
If they like that racially divisive politics they will vote Reform/Restore, if they loathe it they will vote Lab/LD/Green/SNP/PC.
Her best chance is to get completely away from the Culture War Social Media stuff and concentrate on bread and butter issues that matter to the voters such as the economy, taxation and education.
Badenoch is trying to eat Farage's lunch. If I were a Tory (which thankfully I am not) I would be very nervous for the next general election.
Despite the ramping on here, I see incompetence of an order we would not see with Cleverly or Hunt as LOTO. David Cameron writing her speeches and prepping her for PMQs does not change that.
OMG, how dare a female Conservative politician follow in the footsteps on her female predessors as a leader of her party and then have the temerity to have the political intelligence and charisma along with an ability to think on her feet and tell it like it is?!
Are you going to South Aberdeen and putting this point to the voters there? Surely the open racism and sexism you allege would be a vote winner for Kemi there. Tories should be a shoe-in.
As a matter of interest has Badenoch been up to campaign in either or both of the Scottish byelections? Or any Labour front bencher?
If not, why not?
OMG!! You have literally just nailed my earlier point about the lack of any media coverage of the other two Westminster by-elections in the media and your ignorance of the campaigns or likely outcomes. And yes, Kemi Badenoch has been up campaigning here for the Scottish Conservatives unlike Keir Starmer or Nigel Farage!!
A real election result from tonight. (Figures from the VoteUK forum).
"Westmorland & Furness: Hawcoat & New Barn
Reform gain from Conservative, with change since 2022 in brackets
Reform 1,139 (48.4%/new) Labour 576 (24.5%/-10.9%) Conservative 447 (19%/-22.9%) Green 121 (5.1%/new) Liberal democrat 69 (2.9%/-2.9%)"
Kemis new Con Army in meltdown
Reform and Restore to it's Right and no one believing it's current Leadership is anything but Right Wing Tory.
She can wear pale Blue, sky Blue , light Blue, the Tories will only be considered credible, relevant , electable wen they find a new Leader who is a genuine mature centre right Politician
I think keeping Kemi is probably the Tories best option, not so much because she is good, more that all the alternatives are even worse.
In a political environment where both Reform and Restore are campaigning as overtly racist, voters are not going to switch to a right wing party led by a Black woman.
If they like that racially divisive politics they will vote Reform/Restore, if they loathe it they will vote Lab/LD/Green/SNP/PC.
Her best chance is to get completely away from the Culture War Social Media stuff and concentrate on bread and butter issues that matter to the voters such as the economy, taxation and education.
Oh I am bookmarking this absolutely awful political prediction post by you Foxy, its utterly on another level when it comes to the left leaning chauvinistic male view of politics on this site!! I just have no words other than I am not surprised this site now has a real cross party women contribution problem when it comes to reading pig ignorant patronising posts like this!!
Seriously did you even engage your brain or read back your comment before posting it?! More importantly, did you even bother to recognise the current rising personal polling of that incredible politically talented and charismatic black woman leading the Conservative party right now who is currently taking on both the far right and left flank of UK politics to take control of the central ground in British politics by good old honest talking sense?!
If it were so, why are the Tories languishing on 17%, down 7% from the GE?
(Also: "left leaning chauvinistic male view of politics on this site" - Left leaning?? Sure, there are a few of us on here who are left of centre but we're easily outnumbered by those on the right. Which is fine - I hope PB never becomes the sole preserve of the left or the right.)
Where are the regular cross party female posters on this site these days?! And no, you are not outnumbered by those on the right, please don't insult our intelligence, this site has become the preserve of the left leaning Dads shed issue men on the left and that is why its so patronisingly boring and more importantly out of touch! It is also why that dismissive and frankly patronising Foxy post earlier was an absolutely classic of this genre of the theme of this site these days and yet so quickly accepted and why it made me so angry!
What has happened to this once incredible politically robust cross party debating site, and one that originally welcomed a growing cross party female perspective despite the awful misogyny of the odd poster on here which I and others had the misfortune to come under attack from because we were females from the centre right of politics.
What have I posted that you consider misogynistic?
I have merely pointed out that polls and real election results do not show Badenoch making progress. Even so the potential alternatives are worse so there is no reason to change leader.
She has a bad hand, but isn't playing it well. She cannot out-Farage Farage. No-one other than Lowe seems capable of that. She needs a different strategy, and the best one is to stick to serious economic, tax and similar issues in order to look like a government in waiting. That is something Reform fail at, and where they are vulnerable.
A reminder, I voted Conservative in 2010 and was a supporter of the Coalition government, but there is no way that I would vote for the current Conservative Party.
A fascinating article about the lost world of rock that got blown away by punk. I can't stand punk music personally, except for the more new wave stuff that is sometimes bundled up with it, like the Stranglers or Blondie. Call me old fashioned, but I like songs with a tune. I don't really like the gobby attitude associated with it either. I turned 1 in 1976 so I was a bit young for it all anyway.
Yesterday I spent the evening with two of my Green supporting/Starmer hating female friends.
Both of them admitted they would vote Labour (even with Starmer) because of Farage's incitement over the Henry Nowak murder.
It's a bit like PB's BigJohnOwls voting for Starmer.
Is that recent for them?
It's a bit concerning if they took so long to notice the problems.
Also what sort of Greens? Local Politics Greens or National Politics Greens?
Makes perfect sense. My number one priority would be voting to keeo Farage out and his behaviour over the Nowak case was a timely reminder of what a repellent human being he is
Yes - its the presenting question, but it's hardly a new emphasis for flim-flam Farage.
I watched Question Time for the first time in a couple of years last night. A brief summary. Reform have picked a duffer. Rob looked like a rabbit caught in the headlights, and his biggest weakness, more significant than his social media history, was that he just doesn't know, or understand, much at all. Burnham was just Burnham. The Tory was quite appealing - civilised, pleasant and reasonable, rather old school. The other two (Green and Lib Dem) didn't really register much, though they were both much more articulate than Rob.
I really don't understand why Reform have put up such a weak candidate (though I don't mind). The contrast between sassy Hannah the plumber in Gorton & Denton and Rob the plumber in Makerfield is huge, irrespective of their political stances.
Kenyon was the incumbent candidate fro, 2024 so I get why inertia may have carried him.
As for why him, why not? The assumption amongst many parties is that northerners are thick, so have a candidate to match. From a posh southern Reform perspective that lot don't know any better, just shout immigrants at them and they'll vote for anything.
The comedy is that last night highlighted the real choice here. If people want change there is a candidate who is articulate, passionate, creative and has a clear plan to change how stuff gets done. Or you have Mr women are slags.
Reform's vote has been sliding for a while nationally, the "tight" claim of this by-election now replaced by a 10pt Burnham lead, and I expect that to widen further.
Reform should be very happy that the Restore candidate was not allowed on Question Time she would been shown to be the sane choice.
Equally I doubt many Makerfield voters actually watched the program so the only bit that may cross over is more confirmation that the Reform candidate isn’t very bright
There are many issues that Reform could campaign on but seem to concentrate on immigration. They are often tagged as racist and may be so. Or they could be very good political operators that see an hot-button issue that will never be solved over this next generation. Local news highlighting the large drop in primary school intake (10% - 13%) compared to a decade ago. This compares to Adult Social Care and SEND eating up Local Authority budgets.
So the usual reminder that Reform and Restore don't have solutions. Or if their solutions were implemented we'd (aka the young taxpayers) be in a very difficult position in terms of supporting the domestic population. Remove immigration and the line drops significantly.
Do you realise that not all immigrants are net tax contributors ?
The young taxpayers will be funding not just oldies but also many of the immigrants.
A fascinating article about the lost world of rock that got blown away by punk. I can't stand punk music personally, except for the more new wave stuff that is sometimes bundled up with it, like the Stranglers or Blondie. Call me old fashioned, but I like songs with a tune. I don't really like the gobby attitude associated with it either. I turned 1 in 1976 so I was a bit young for it all anyway.
I think it's interesting that Bowie made his greatest music in that period, though he did have to leave the country to do so.
A real election result from tonight. (Figures from the VoteUK forum).
"Westmorland & Furness: Hawcoat & New Barn
Reform gain from Conservative, with change since 2022 in brackets
Reform 1,139 (48.4%/new) Labour 576 (24.5%/-10.9%) Conservative 447 (19%/-22.9%) Green 121 (5.1%/new) Liberal democrat 69 (2.9%/-2.9%)"
Kemis new Con Army in meltdown
Reform and Restore to it's Right and no one believing it's current Leadership is anything but Right Wing Tory.
She can wear pale Blue, sky Blue , light Blue, the Tories will only be considered credible, relevant , electable wen they find a new Leader who is a genuine mature centre right Politician
I think keeping Kemi is probably the Tories best option, not so much because she is good, more that all the alternatives are even worse.
In a political environment where both Reform and Restore are campaigning as overtly racist, voters are not going to switch to a right wing party led by a Black woman.
If they like that racially divisive politics they will vote Reform/Restore, if they loathe it they will vote Lab/LD/Green/SNP/PC.
Her best chance is to get completely away from the Culture War Social Media stuff and concentrate on bread and butter issues that matter to the voters such as the economy, taxation and education.
Oh I am bookmarking this absolutely awful political prediction post by you Foxy, its utterly on another level when it comes to the left leaning chauvinistic male view of politics on this site!! I just have no words other than I am not surprised this site now has a real cross party women contribution problem when it comes to reading pig ignorant patronising posts like this!!
Seriously did you even engage your brain or read back your comment before posting it?! More importantly, did you even bother to recognise the current rising personal polling of that incredible politically talented and charismatic black woman leading the Conservative party right now who is currently taking on both the far right and left flank of UK politics to take control of the central ground in British politics by good old honest talking sense?!
If it were so, why are the Tories languishing on 17%, down 7% from the GE?
(Also: "left leaning chauvinistic male view of politics on this site" - Left leaning?? Sure, there are a few of us on here who are left of centre but we're easily outnumbered by those on the right. Which is fine - I hope PB never becomes the sole preserve of the left or the right.)
Where are the regular cross party female posters on this site these days?! And no, you are not outnumbered by those on the right, please don't insult our intelligence, this site has become the preserve of the left leaning Dads shed issue men on the left and that is why its so patronisingly boring and more importantly out of touch! It is also why that dismissive and frankly patronising Foxy post earlier was an absolutely classic of this genre of the theme of this site these days and yet so quickly accepted and why it made me so angry!
What has happened to this once incredible politically robust cross party debating site, and one that originally welcomed a growing cross party female perspective despite the awful misogyny of the odd poster on here which I and others had the misfortune to come under attack from because we were females from the centre right of politics.
There are, sadly, few women, it appears, on PB, but I think the claim the site is the preserve of left leaning Dads is inaccurate. What of TheScreamingEagles, Casino_Royale, Sandpit, Andy_JS, williamglenn, Luckyguy1983, HYUFD, Fishing, Sweeney74, Big_G_NorthWales, scampi25, another_richard etc.?
I think we all tend to notice the people we disagree with more.
I watched Question Time for the first time in a couple of years last night. A brief summary. Reform have picked a duffer. Rob looked like a rabbit caught in the headlights, and his biggest weakness, more significant than his social media history, was that he just doesn't know, or understand, much at all. Burnham was just Burnham. The Tory was quite appealing - civilised, pleasant and reasonable, rather old school. The other two (Green and Lib Dem) didn't really register much, though they were both much more articulate than Rob.
I really don't understand why Reform have put up such a weak candidate (though I don't mind). The contrast between sassy Hannah the plumber in Gorton & Denton and Rob the plumber in Makerfield is huge, irrespective of their political stances.
Reform's problem is that Farage wants to lead a protest movement not an alternative future government.
So its going to be a series of untrained candidates and undeveloped policies.
Farage should have been using his donated money to turn Reform into a professional outfit.
I think you'll find that money had nothing to do with politics whatsoever, and was merely a purely personal gift from a dear old friend. Otherwise, Nigel would surely have diligently declared every penny to Parliamentary authorities on his election. And I am certain the ongoing investigation will fully exonerate him.
There are many issues that Reform could campaign on but seem to concentrate on immigration. They are often tagged as racist and may be so. Or they could be very good political operators that see an hot-button issue that will never be solved over this next generation. Local news highlighting the large drop in primary school intake (10% - 13%) compared to a decade ago. This compares to Adult Social Care and SEND eating up Local Authority budgets.
So the usual reminder that Reform and Restore don't have solutions. Or if their solutions were implemented we'd (aka the young taxpayers) be in a very difficult position in terms of supporting the domestic population. Remove immigration and the line drops significantly.
Do you realise that not all immigrants are net tax contributors ?
The young taxpayers will be funding not just oldies but also many of the immigrants.
Immigrants do have a higher employment rate than natives.
The dependency ratio is not purely about tax either. There is a need for workers to keep essential services and industries going like Social Care, agriculture, food processing and building even if these are often poorly paid.
A real election result from tonight. (Figures from the VoteUK forum).
"Westmorland & Furness: Hawcoat & New Barn
Reform gain from Conservative, with change since 2022 in brackets
Reform 1,139 (48.4%/new) Labour 576 (24.5%/-10.9%) Conservative 447 (19%/-22.9%) Green 121 (5.1%/new) Liberal democrat 69 (2.9%/-2.9%)"
Kemis new Con Army in meltdown
Reform and Restore to it's Right and no one believing it's current Leadership is anything but Right Wing Tory.
She can wear pale Blue, sky Blue , light Blue, the Tories will only be considered credible, relevant , electable wen they find a new Leader who is a genuine mature centre right Politician
I think keeping Kemi is probably the Tories best option, not so much because she is good, more that all the alternatives are even worse.
In a political environment where both Reform and Restore are campaigning as overtly racist, voters are not going to switch to a right wing party led by a Black woman.
If they like that racially divisive politics they will vote Reform/Restore, if they loathe it they will vote Lab/LD/Green/SNP/PC.
Her best chance is to get completely away from the Culture War Social Media stuff and concentrate on bread and butter issues that matter to the voters such as the economy, taxation and education.
Oh I am bookmarking this absolutely awful political prediction post by you Foxy, its utterly on another level when it comes to the left leaning chauvinistic male view of politics on this site!! I just have no words other than I am not surprised this site now has a real cross party women contribution problem when it comes to reading pig ignorant patronising posts like this!!
Seriously did you even engage your brain or read back your comment before posting it?! More importantly, did you even bother to recognise the current rising personal polling of that incredible politically talented and charismatic black woman leading the Conservative party right now who is currently taking on both the far right and left flank of UK politics to take control of the central ground in British politics by good old honest talking sense?!
If it were so, why are the Tories languishing on 17%, down 7% from the GE?
(Also: "left leaning chauvinistic male view of politics on this site" - Left leaning?? Sure, there are a few of us on here who are left of centre but we're easily outnumbered by those on the right. Which is fine - I hope PB never becomes the sole preserve of the left or the right.)
Where are the regular cross party female posters on this site these days?! And no, you are not outnumbered by those on the right, please don't insult our intelligence, this site has become the preserve of the left leaning Dads shed issue men on the left and that is why its so patronisingly boring and more importantly out of touch! It is also why that dismissive and frankly patronising Foxy post earlier was an absolutely classic of this genre of the theme of this site these days and yet so quickly accepted and why it made me so angry!
What has happened to this once incredible politically robust cross party debating site, and one that originally welcomed a growing cross party female perspective despite the awful misogyny of the odd poster on here which I and others had the misfortune to come under attack from because we were females from the centre right of politics.
There are, sadly, few women, it appears, on PB, but I think the claim the site is the preserve of left leaning Dads is inaccurate. What of TheScreamingEagles, Casino_Royale, Sandpit, Andy_JS, williamglenn, Luckyguy1983, HYUFD, Fishing, Sweeney74, Big_G_NorthWales, scampi25, another_richard etc.?
I think we all tend to notice the people we disagree with more.
I've been posting off and on here since 2005, and women have always been under-represented on the site. I think that's probably because in general, quite sensibly, they have better things to do.
A fascinating article about the lost world of rock that got blown away by punk. I can't stand punk music personally, except for the more new wave stuff that is sometimes bundled up with it, like the Stranglers or Blondie. Call me old fashioned, but I like songs with a tune. I don't really like the gobby attitude associated with it either. I turned 1 in 1976 so I was a bit young for it all anyway.
It’s always a cycle.
At one point Doro Pesch was doing wedding singing (that must have been interesting weddings) - then metal was back and she was filling stadia again.
A real election result from tonight. (Figures from the VoteUK forum).
"Westmorland & Furness: Hawcoat & New Barn
Reform gain from Conservative, with change since 2022 in brackets
Reform 1,139 (48.4%/new) Labour 576 (24.5%/-10.9%) Conservative 447 (19%/-22.9%) Green 121 (5.1%/new) Liberal democrat 69 (2.9%/-2.9%)"
Kemis new Con Army in meltdown
Reform and Restore to it's Right and no one believing it's current Leadership is anything but Right Wing Tory.
She can wear pale Blue, sky Blue , light Blue, the Tories will only be considered credible, relevant , electable wen they find a new Leader who is a genuine mature centre right Politician
I think keeping Kemi is probably the Tories best option, not so much because she is good, more that all the alternatives are even worse.
In a political environment where both Reform and Restore are campaigning as overtly racist, voters are not going to switch to a right wing party led by a Black woman.
If they like that racially divisive politics they will vote Reform/Restore, if they loathe it they will vote Lab/LD/Green/SNP/PC.
Her best chance is to get completely away from the Culture War Social Media stuff and concentrate on bread and butter issues that matter to the voters such as the economy, taxation and education.
Oh I am bookmarking this absolutely awful political prediction post by you Foxy, its utterly on another level when it comes to the left leaning chauvinistic male view of politics on this site!! I just have no words other than I am not surprised this site now has a real cross party women contribution problem when it comes to reading pig ignorant patronising posts like this!!
Seriously did you even engage your brain or read back your comment before posting it?! More importantly, did you even bother to recognise the current rising personal polling of that incredible politically talented and charismatic black woman leading the Conservative party right now who is currently taking on both the far right and left flank of UK politics to take control of the central ground in British politics by good old honest talking sense?!
If it were so, why are the Tories languishing on 17%, down 7% from the GE?
(Also: "left leaning chauvinistic male view of politics on this site" - Left leaning?? Sure, there are a few of us on here who are left of centre but we're easily outnumbered by those on the right. Which is fine - I hope PB never becomes the sole preserve of the left or the right.)
Where are the regular cross party female posters on this site these days?! And no, you are not outnumbered by those on the right, please don't insult our intelligence, this site has become the preserve of the left leaning Dads shed issue men on the left and that is why its so patronisingly boring and more importantly out of touch! It is also why that dismissive and frankly patronising Foxy post earlier was an absolutely classic of this genre of the theme of this site these days and yet so quickly accepted and why it made me so angry!
What has happened to this once incredible politically robust cross party debating site, and one that originally welcomed a growing cross party female perspective despite the awful misogyny of the odd poster on here which I and others had the misfortune to come under attack from because we were females from the centre right of politics.
There are, sadly, few women, it appears, on PB, but I think the claim the site is the preserve of left leaning Dads is inaccurate. What of TheScreamingEagles, Casino_Royale, Sandpit, Andy_JS, williamglenn, Luckyguy1983, HYUFD, Fishing, Sweeney74, Big_G_NorthWales, scampi25, another_richard etc.?
I think we all tend to notice the people we disagree with more.
I've been posting off and on here since 2005, and women have always been under-represented on the site. I think that's probably because in general, quite sensibly, they have better things to do.
That’s been true of online “private/ specific interests” forums since they first appeared in the early 0’s.
Social media is more 50:50 but again that depends on the platform (twitter also tended male).
I watched Question Time for the first time in a couple of years last night. A brief summary. Reform have picked a duffer. Rob looked like a rabbit caught in the headlights, and his biggest weakness, more significant than his social media history, was that he just doesn't know, or understand, much at all. Burnham was just Burnham. The Tory was quite appealing - civilised, pleasant and reasonable, rather old school. The other two (Green and Lib Dem) didn't really register much, though they were both much more articulate than Rob.
I really don't understand why Reform have put up such a weak candidate (though I don't mind). The contrast between sassy Hannah the plumber in Gorton & Denton and Rob the plumber in Makerfield is huge, irrespective of their political stances.
Reform's problem is that Farage wants to lead a protest movement not an alternative future government.
So its going to be a series of untrained candidates and undeveloped policies.
Farage should have been using his donated money to turn Reform into a professional outfit.
I think you'll find that money had nothing to do with politics whatsoever, and was merely a purely personal gift from a dear old friend. Otherwise, Nigel would surely have diligently declared every penny to Parliamentary authorities on his election. And I am certain the ongoing investigation will fully exonerate him.
Every penny that is just resting in his accounts, Shirley?
After all, Nige is insistent that the money used to buy houses for cash, was *other* money.
A real election result from tonight. (Figures from the VoteUK forum).
"Westmorland & Furness: Hawcoat & New Barn
Reform gain from Conservative, with change since 2022 in brackets
Reform 1,139 (48.4%/new) Labour 576 (24.5%/-10.9%) Conservative 447 (19%/-22.9%) Green 121 (5.1%/new) Liberal democrat 69 (2.9%/-2.9%)"
Kemis new Con Army in meltdown
Reform and Restore to it's Right and no one believing it's current Leadership is anything but Right Wing Tory.
She can wear pale Blue, sky Blue , light Blue, the Tories will only be considered credible, relevant , electable wen they find a new Leader who is a genuine mature centre right Politician
I think keeping Kemi is probably the Tories best option, not so much because she is good, more that all the alternatives are even worse.
In a political environment where both Reform and Restore are campaigning as overtly racist, voters are not going to switch to a right wing party led by a Black woman.
If they like that racially divisive politics they will vote Reform/Restore, if they loathe it they will vote Lab/LD/Green/SNP/PC.
Her best chance is to get completely away from the Culture War Social Media stuff and concentrate on bread and butter issues that matter to the voters such as the economy, taxation and education.
Badenoch is trying to eat Farage's lunch. If I were a Tory (which thankfully I am not) I would be very nervous for the next general election.
Despite the ramping on here, I see incompetence of an order we would not see with Cleverly or Hunt as LOTO. David Cameron writing her speeches and prepping her for PMQs does not change that.
OMG, how dare a female Conservative politician follow in the footsteps on her female predessors as a leader of her party and then have the temerity to have the political intelligence and charisma along with an ability to think on her feet and tell it like it is?!
Are you going to South Aberdeen and putting this point to the voters there? Surely the open racism and sexism you allege would be a vote winner for Kemi there. Tories should be a shoe-in.
As a matter of interest has Badenoch been up to campaign in either or both of the Scottish byelections? Or any Labour front bencher?
If not, why not?
OMG!! You have literally just nailed my earlier point about the lack of any media coverage of the other two Westminster by-elections in the media and your ignorance of the campaigns or likely outcomes. And yes, Kemi Badenoch has been up campaigning here for the Scottish Conservatives unlike Keir Starmer or Nigel Farage!!
Do you think that the SCon will do better in Aberdeen South than losing half their vote, bearing in mind they did that just 6 weeks ago in the Holyrood elections?
There are many issues that Reform could campaign on but seem to concentrate on immigration. They are often tagged as racist and may be so. Or they could be very good political operators that see an hot-button issue that will never be solved over this next generation. Local news highlighting the large drop in primary school intake (10% - 13%) compared to a decade ago. This compares to Adult Social Care and SEND eating up Local Authority budgets.
So the usual reminder that Reform and Restore don't have solutions. Or if their solutions were implemented we'd (aka the young taxpayers) be in a very difficult position in terms of supporting the domestic population. Remove immigration and the line drops significantly.
Do you realise that not all immigrants are net tax contributors ?
The young taxpayers will be funding not just oldies but also many of the immigrants.
Immigrants do have a higher employment rate than natives.
The dependency ratio is not purely about tax either. There is a need for workers to keep essential services and industries going like Social Care, agriculture, food processing and building even if these are often poorly paid.
Then employ some of the millions of British people who will not work.
Rather than subsidising them to do nothing while simultaneously subsidizing more immigrants to do low skilled work or to do nothing.
Alternatively invest in new technology to replace low skilled work.
A real election result from tonight. (Figures from the VoteUK forum).
"Westmorland & Furness: Hawcoat & New Barn
Reform gain from Conservative, with change since 2022 in brackets
Reform 1,139 (48.4%/new) Labour 576 (24.5%/-10.9%) Conservative 447 (19%/-22.9%) Green 121 (5.1%/new) Liberal democrat 69 (2.9%/-2.9%)"
Kemis new Con Army in meltdown
Reform and Restore to it's Right and no one believing it's current Leadership is anything but Right Wing Tory.
She can wear pale Blue, sky Blue , light Blue, the Tories will only be considered credible, relevant , electable wen they find a new Leader who is a genuine mature centre right Politician
I think keeping Kemi is probably the Tories best option, not so much because she is good, more that all the alternatives are even worse.
In a political environment where both Reform and Restore are campaigning as overtly racist, voters are not going to switch to a right wing party led by a Black woman.
If they like that racially divisive politics they will vote Reform/Restore, if they loathe it they will vote Lab/LD/Green/SNP/PC.
Her best chance is to get completely away from the Culture War Social Media stuff and concentrate on bread and butter issues that matter to the voters such as the economy, taxation and education.
Badenoch is trying to eat Farage's lunch. If I were a Tory (which thankfully I am not) I would be very nervous for the next general election.
Despite the ramping on here, I see incompetence of an order we would not see with Cleverly or Hunt as LOTO. David Cameron writing her speeches and prepping her for PMQs does not change that.
OMG, how dare a female Conservative politician follow in the footsteps on her female predessors as a leader of her party and then have the temerity to have the political intelligence and charisma along with an ability to think on her feet and tell it like it is?!
Are you going to South Aberdeen and putting this point to the voters there? Surely the open racism and sexism you allege would be a vote winner for Kemi there. Tories should be a shoe-in.
As a matter of interest has Badenoch been up to campaign in either or both of the Scottish byelections? Or any Labour front bencher?
If not, why not?
OMG!! You have literally just nailed my earlier point about the lack of any media coverage of the other two Westminster by-elections in the media and your ignorance of the campaigns or likely outcomes. And yes, Kemi Badenoch has been up campaigning here for the Scottish Conservatives unlike Keir Starmer or Nigel Farage!!
Well, I'm not surprised that Starmer and Farage haven't been up there campaigning for the Scottish Conservatives.
I watched Question Time for the first time in a couple of years last night. A brief summary. Reform have picked a duffer. Rob looked like a rabbit caught in the headlights, and his biggest weakness, more significant than his social media history, was that he just doesn't know, or understand, much at all. Burnham was just Burnham. The Tory was quite appealing - civilised, pleasant and reasonable, rather old school. The other two (Green and Lib Dem) didn't really register much, though they were both much more articulate than Rob.
I really don't understand why Reform have put up such a weak candidate (though I don't mind). The contrast between sassy Hannah the plumber in Gorton & Denton and Rob the plumber in Makerfield is huge, irrespective of their political stances.
Reform's problem is that Farage wants to lead a protest movement not an alternative future government.
So its going to be a series of untrained candidates and undeveloped policies.
Farage should have been using his donated money to turn Reform into a professional outfit.
I think you'll find that money had nothing to do with politics whatsoever, and was merely a purely personal gift from a dear old friend. Otherwise, Nigel would surely have diligently declared every penny to Parliamentary authorities on his election. And I am certain the ongoing investigation will fully exonerate him.
Every penny that is just resting in his accounts, Shirley?
After all, Nige is insistent that the money used to buy houses for cash, was *other* money.
If it was just sitting there unspent, it would go some way to explaining Nigel's frenetic cameo activity.
A real election result from tonight. (Figures from the VoteUK forum).
"Westmorland & Furness: Hawcoat & New Barn
Reform gain from Conservative, with change since 2022 in brackets
Reform 1,139 (48.4%/new) Labour 576 (24.5%/-10.9%) Conservative 447 (19%/-22.9%) Green 121 (5.1%/new) Liberal democrat 69 (2.9%/-2.9%)"
Kemis new Con Army in meltdown
Reform and Restore to it's Right and no one believing it's current Leadership is anything but Right Wing Tory.
She can wear pale Blue, sky Blue , light Blue, the Tories will only be considered credible, relevant , electable wen they find a new Leader who is a genuine mature centre right Politician
I think keeping Kemi is probably the Tories best option, not so much because she is good, more that all the alternatives are even worse.
In a political environment where both Reform and Restore are campaigning as overtly racist, voters are not going to switch to a right wing party led by a Black woman.
If they like that racially divisive politics they will vote Reform/Restore, if they loathe it they will vote Lab/LD/Green/SNP/PC.
Her best chance is to get completely away from the Culture War Social Media stuff and concentrate on bread and butter issues that matter to the voters such as the economy, taxation and education.
Badenoch is trying to eat Farage's lunch. If I were a Tory (which thankfully I am not) I would be very nervous for the next general election.
Despite the ramping on here, I see incompetence of an order we would not see with Cleverly or Hunt as LOTO. David Cameron writing her speeches and prepping her for PMQs does not change that.
OMG, how dare a female Conservative politician follow in the footsteps on her female predessors as a leader of her party and then have the temerity to have the political intelligence and charisma along with an ability to think on her feet and tell it like it is?!
Are you going to South Aberdeen and putting this point to the voters there? Surely the open racism and sexism you allege would be a vote winner for Kemi there. Tories should be a shoe-in.
As a matter of interest has Badenoch been up to campaign in either or both of the Scottish byelections? Or any Labour front bencher?
If not, why not?
OMG!! You have literally just nailed my earlier point about the lack of any media coverage of the other two Westminster by-elections in the media and your ignorance of the campaigns or likely outcomes. And yes, Kemi Badenoch has been up campaigning here for the Scottish Conservatives unlike Keir Starmer or Nigel Farage!!
Do you think that the SCon will do better in Aberdeen South than losing half their vote, bearing in mind they did that just 6 weeks ago in the Holyrood elections?
Here is a thought, why don't you bother to go look up the performance of the Scottish Conservative candidates in some of the key North East Holyrood constituencies despite the performance of Reform in the area, and when you do, don't let your patronising lack of knowledge hit your behookie on the way out!!
A fascinating article about the lost world of rock that got blown away by punk. I can't stand punk music personally, except for the more new wave stuff that is sometimes bundled up with it, like the Stranglers or Blondie. Call me old fashioned, but I like songs with a tune. I don't really like the gobby attitude associated with it either. I turned 1 in 1976 so I was a bit young for it all anyway.
It’s always a cycle.
At one point Doro Pesch was doing wedding singing (that must have been interesting weddings) - then metal was back and she was filling stadia again.
If you watch TOTP re-runs on BBC4 on Friday night, as I sometimes do the charts in late Seventies and early Eighties had lots of other bands and artists other than Punk and New Wave.
This may not be the cultural zeitgeist and memory, but it was the reality. In particular Heavy Metal was massive, but so was disco and soul. Maybe not what the music press were interested in, but it sold millions of records.
My first proper gig was UFO in 1980 at Southampton Gaumont. Denim, leather and long hair everywhere.
A real election result from tonight. (Figures from the VoteUK forum).
"Westmorland & Furness: Hawcoat & New Barn
Reform gain from Conservative, with change since 2022 in brackets
Reform 1,139 (48.4%/new) Labour 576 (24.5%/-10.9%) Conservative 447 (19%/-22.9%) Green 121 (5.1%/new) Liberal democrat 69 (2.9%/-2.9%)"
Kemis new Con Army in meltdown
Reform and Restore to it's Right and no one believing it's current Leadership is anything but Right Wing Tory.
She can wear pale Blue, sky Blue , light Blue, the Tories will only be considered credible, relevant , electable wen they find a new Leader who is a genuine mature centre right Politician
I think keeping Kemi is probably the Tories best option, not so much because she is good, more that all the alternatives are even worse.
In a political environment where both Reform and Restore are campaigning as overtly racist, voters are not going to switch to a right wing party led by a Black woman.
If they like that racially divisive politics they will vote Reform/Restore, if they loathe it they will vote Lab/LD/Green/SNP/PC.
Her best chance is to get completely away from the Culture War Social Media stuff and concentrate on bread and butter issues that matter to the voters such as the economy, taxation and education.
Badenoch is trying to eat Farage's lunch. If I were a Tory (which thankfully I am not) I would be very nervous for the next general election.
Despite the ramping on here, I see incompetence of an order we would not see with Cleverly or Hunt as LOTO. David Cameron writing her speeches and prepping her for PMQs does not change that.
OMG, how dare a female Conservative politician follow in the footsteps on her female predessors as a leader of her party and then have the temerity to have the political intelligence and charisma along with an ability to think on her feet and tell it like it is?!
Are you going to South Aberdeen and putting this point to the voters there? Surely the open racism and sexism you allege would be a vote winner for Kemi there. Tories should be a shoe-in.
As a matter of interest has Badenoch been up to campaign in either or both of the Scottish byelections? Or any Labour front bencher?
If not, why not?
OMG!! You have literally just nailed my earlier point about the lack of any media coverage of the other two Westminster by-elections in the media and your ignorance of the campaigns or likely outcomes. And yes, Kemi Badenoch has been up campaigning here for the Scottish Conservatives unlike Keir Starmer or Nigel Farage!!
Do you think that the SCon will do better in Aberdeen South than losing half their vote, bearing in mind they did that just 6 weeks ago in the Holyrood elections?
Here is a thought, why don't you bother to go look up the performance of the Scottish Conservative candidates in some of the key North East Holyrood constituencies despite the performance of Reform in the area, and when you do, don't let your patronising lack of knowledge hit your behookie on the way out!!
See you on the morning of the 19th. Lets see if SCon can expand on their 25% share of the vote at GE 2024.
A fascinating article about the lost world of rock that got blown away by punk. I can't stand punk music personally, except for the more new wave stuff that is sometimes bundled up with it, like the Stranglers or Blondie. Call me old fashioned, but I like songs with a tune. I don't really like the gobby attitude associated with it either. I turned 1 in 1976 so I was a bit young for it all anyway.
That was a really fun article but I'm not sure I buy the premise. It's not punk that has erased our memory of a lot of the bands mentioned but time. The really good or the really popular Glam, Prog or Pub rock bands are still remembered. It's like how many big band leaders of the 30s and 40s did someone remember in the 90s? Also it's a shaky starting point to try to divine much about general musical taste from the pages of music magazines. The art school graduate types who ran them were way more susceptible to the ersatz philosophy of punk than the general population. Good to see my beloved Sailor mentioned though. They're a brilliant example of a band who's hits are very unrepresentative of the rest of their output.
A fascinating article about the lost world of rock that got blown away by punk. I can't stand punk music personally, except for the more new wave stuff that is sometimes bundled up with it, like the Stranglers or Blondie. Call me old fashioned, but I like songs with a tune. I don't really like the gobby attitude associated with it either. I turned 1 in 1976 so I was a bit young for it all anyway.
It’s always a cycle.
At one point Doro Pesch was doing wedding singing (that must have been interesting weddings) - then metal was back and she was filling stadia again.
If you watch TOTP re-runs on BBC4 on Friday night, as I sometimes do the charts in late Seventies and early Eighties had lots of other bands and artists other than Punk and New Wave.
This may not be the cultural zeitgeist and memory, but it was the reality. In particular Heavy Metal was massive, but so was disco and soul. Maybe not what the music press were interested in, but it sold millions of records.
My first proper gig was UFO in 1980 at Southampton Gaumont. Denim, leather and long hair everywhere.
I loved watching TOTP reruns with my Dad until they hit the late 70s and you started drowning in copy and paste disco hits. It's a reminder of how dominant disco really was which is something that is definitely underappreciated.
A fascinating article about the lost world of rock that got blown away by punk. I can't stand punk music personally, except for the more new wave stuff that is sometimes bundled up with it, like the Stranglers or Blondie. Call me old fashioned, but I like songs with a tune. I don't really like the gobby attitude associated with it either. I turned 1 in 1976 so I was a bit young for it all anyway.
It’s always a cycle.
At one point Doro Pesch was doing wedding singing (that must have been interesting weddings) - then metal was back and she was filling stadia again.
If you watch TOTP re-runs on BBC4 on Friday night, as I sometimes do the charts in late Seventies and early Eighties had lots of other bands and artists other than Punk and New Wave.
This may not be the cultural zeitgeist and memory, but it was the reality. In particular Heavy Metal was massive, but so was disco and soul. Maybe not what the music press were interested in, but it sold millions of records.
My first proper gig was UFO in 1980 at Southampton Gaumont. Denim, leather and long hair everywhere.
Yup - it was a mixed scene in the mid 80s. Some genre were on the outs, though - the film The Blues Brothers revived blues. Lots of stories about people who hadn't had a gig in years getting phone calls...
A fascinating article about the lost world of rock that got blown away by punk. I can't stand punk music personally, except for the more new wave stuff that is sometimes bundled up with it, like the Stranglers or Blondie. Call me old fashioned, but I like songs with a tune. I don't really like the gobby attitude associated with it either. I turned 1 in 1976 so I was a bit young for it all anyway.
That was a really fun article but I'm not sure I buy the premise. It's not punk that has erased our memory of a lot of the bands mentioned but time. The really good or the really popular Glam, Prog or Pub rock bands are still remembered. It's like how many big band leaders of the 30s and 40s did someone remember in the 90s? Also it's a shaky starting point to try to divine much about general musical taste from the pages of music magazines. The art school graduate types who ran them were way more susceptible to the ersatz philosophy of punk than the general population. Good to see my beloved Sailor mentioned though. They're a brilliant example of a band who's hits are very unrepresentative of the rest of their output.
Big Band? reminds me of showing up for a drink at the 100 club in the 90s. With their usual chaos, a bunch of 40s music types had showed up for a band. Only to discover a punk band playing. Which formed a rather diverse crowd. The 40s lot put quite a bit of effort into dancing to punk...
There are many issues that Reform could campaign on but seem to concentrate on immigration. They are often tagged as racist and may be so. Or they could be very good political operators that see an hot-button issue that will never be solved over this next generation. Local news highlighting the large drop in primary school intake (10% - 13%) compared to a decade ago. This compares to Adult Social Care and SEND eating up Local Authority budgets.
So the usual reminder that Reform and Restore don't have solutions. Or if their solutions were implemented we'd (aka the young taxpayers) be in a very difficult position in terms of supporting the domestic population. Remove immigration and the line drops significantly.
Do you realise that not all immigrants are net tax contributors ?
The young taxpayers will be funding not just oldies but also many of the immigrants.
Immigrants do have a higher employment rate than natives.
The dependency ratio is not purely about tax either. There is a need for workers to keep essential services and industries going like Social Care, agriculture, food processing and building even if these are often poorly paid.
Then employ some of the millions of British people who will not work.
Rather than subsidising them to do nothing while simultaneously subsidizing more immigrants to do low skilled work or to do nothing.
Alternatively invest in new technology to replace low skilled work.
A lot of the low end jobs in agriculture and food processing are ripe for automation. Fruit picking is already going.
There are many issues that Reform could campaign on but seem to concentrate on immigration. They are often tagged as racist and may be so. Or they could be very good political operators that see an hot-button issue that will never be solved over this next generation. Local news highlighting the large drop in primary school intake (10% - 13%) compared to a decade ago. This compares to Adult Social Care and SEND eating up Local Authority budgets.
So the usual reminder that Reform and Restore don't have solutions. Or if their solutions were implemented we'd (aka the young taxpayers) be in a very difficult position in terms of supporting the domestic population. Remove immigration and the line drops significantly.
Do you realise that not all immigrants are net tax contributors ?
The young taxpayers will be funding not just oldies but also many of the immigrants.
The table shows *net* immigration. Behind that is 700K of immigration on current policies of high starting salaries i.e. net contributors. Look at Kemi's parentage. Were they here for the benefits? Or even Anushka Asthana who has been mentioned before. Were her parents here for benefits? Look at the wider picture rather than the myopic one.
A real election result from tonight. (Figures from the VoteUK forum).
"Westmorland & Furness: Hawcoat & New Barn
Reform gain from Conservative, with change since 2022 in brackets
Reform 1,139 (48.4%/new) Labour 576 (24.5%/-10.9%) Conservative 447 (19%/-22.9%) Green 121 (5.1%/new) Liberal democrat 69 (2.9%/-2.9%)"
Kemis new Con Army in meltdown
Reform and Restore to it's Right and no one believing it's current Leadership is anything but Right Wing Tory.
She can wear pale Blue, sky Blue , light Blue, the Tories will only be considered credible, relevant , electable wen they find a new Leader who is a genuine mature centre right Politician
I think keeping Kemi is probably the Tories best option, not so much because she is good, more that all the alternatives are even worse.
In a political environment where both Reform and Restore are campaigning as overtly racist, voters are not going to switch to a right wing party led by a Black woman.
If they like that racially divisive politics they will vote Reform/Restore, if they loathe it they will vote Lab/LD/Green/SNP/PC.
Her best chance is to get completely away from the Culture War Social Media stuff and concentrate on bread and butter issues that matter to the voters such as the economy, taxation and education.
Oh I am bookmarking this absolutely awful political prediction post by you Foxy, its utterly on another level when it comes to the left leaning chauvinistic male view of politics on this site!! I just have no words other than I am not surprised this site now has a real cross party women contribution problem when it comes to reading pig ignorant patronising posts like this!!
Seriously did you even engage your brain or read back your comment before posting it?! More importantly, did you even bother to recognise the current rising personal polling of that incredible politically talented and charismatic black woman leading the Conservative party right now who is currently taking on both the far right and left flank of UK politics to take control of the central ground in British politics by good old honest talking sense?!
If it were so, why are the Tories languishing on 17%, down 7% from the GE?
(Also: "left leaning chauvinistic male view of politics on this site" - Left leaning?? Sure, there are a few of us on here who are left of centre but we're easily outnumbered by those on the right. Which is fine - I hope PB never becomes the sole preserve of the left or the right.)
Where are the regular cross party female posters on this site these days?! And no, you are not outnumbered by those on the right, please don't insult our intelligence, this site has become the preserve of the left leaning Dads shed issue men on the left and that is why its so patronisingly boring and more importantly out of touch! It is also why that dismissive and frankly patronising Foxy post earlier was an absolutely classic of this genre of the theme of this site these days and yet so quickly accepted and why it made me so angry!
What has happened to this once incredible politically robust cross party debating site, and one that originally welcomed a growing cross party female perspective despite the awful misogyny of the odd poster on here which I and others had the misfortune to come under attack from because we were females from the centre right of politics.
There are, sadly, few women, it appears, on PB, but I think the claim the site is the preserve of left leaning Dads is inaccurate. What of TheScreamingEagles, Casino_Royale, Sandpit, Andy_JS, williamglenn, Luckyguy1983, HYUFD, Fishing, Sweeney74, Big_G_NorthWales, scampi25, another_richard etc.?
I think we all tend to notice the people we disagree with more.
Casino is public sector now, so will no doubt be going woke and becoming part of the client Labour vote
TSE is a Lib Dem in denial (no offence intended!)
The others, I'll give you.
(FWIW, I think attempts to categorise in this way show how politics has changed - TSE is indeed dry financially, I believe; Richard Tyndall is problably one to add to the right on economic issues; Stuartinromford sounds like an erstwhile Conservative, but again socially liberal. There are plenty of economic-right posters on here, but few Reform-sympathisers and non many Con-enthusiasts while they appeared focused on culture wars/Reform tribute act. Kemi's apparent switch to putting clear blue water between Con and Ref may mean that we have a few more posters who may be voting for traditional right of centre parties. I think it's fair to say that, in 2024, we were all socialists now - or at least, more voted for parties traditionally of the left)
ETA: and substantially fewer women, I think - though I don't know the genders of a lot who post here - I'd not givenit much thought, but I hadn't clocked that fitalass was female for example, even though there is perhaps a clue in the name
I've been on here a very long time and to be honest, yes, it's male dominated and by those of a certain age and my response is so what? We don't pretend to be an accurate barometer of the nation's thinking or a guide to the pulse, zeitgeist or whatever.
We are what we are.
That doesn't mean anyone posting here should feel uncomfortable or threatened - offended or patronised is different. This is the bearpit after all and some of the bears (of both genders) have claws.
As to political leanings, the site moves around depending on who is posting regularly (say 10-20 posts a day). There's a strong conservative feel not surprising given the demographics but that doesn't translate to Conservative apart from a few frequent Tory activists, ex members or those who wish the Blessed Margaret was still alive and running the country.
The "betting" element is not what it was speaking of which it's the Oaks this afternoon at Epsom. Not easy to call but I think LEGACY LINK could be the one - I'm on A LA PROCHAINE each way but she's drifting like a barge which doesn't inspire confidence.
A fascinating article about the lost world of rock that got blown away by punk. I can't stand punk music personally, except for the more new wave stuff that is sometimes bundled up with it, like the Stranglers or Blondie. Call me old fashioned, but I like songs with a tune. I don't really like the gobby attitude associated with it either. I turned 1 in 1976 so I was a bit young for it all anyway.
It’s always a cycle.
At one point Doro Pesch was doing wedding singing (that must have been interesting weddings) - then metal was back and she was filling stadia again.
If you watch TOTP re-runs on BBC4 on Friday night, as I sometimes do the charts in late Seventies and early Eighties had lots of other bands and artists other than Punk and New Wave.
This may not be the cultural zeitgeist and memory, but it was the reality. In particular Heavy Metal was massive, but so was disco and soul. Maybe not what the music press were interested in, but it sold millions of records.
My first proper gig was UFO in 1980 at Southampton Gaumont. Denim, leather and long hair everywhere.
TOTP was incredibly influential, but not always in a good way. I watch Adam Reeder the Professor of Rock and he regularly references TOTP in the rise of British bands in the 70s and 80s.
However TOTP produced by old BBC staffers who cut their teeth on the Beverly Sisters and the Inkspots failed to capture artists who were flying up the Billboard Hot 100. This is why Joe Dolce, Don Estelle, Clive Dunn, St Winfred's choir and the Wurzels made it to the top of the charts whilst Jackson Brown and Linda Ronstadt were nowhere.
A real election result from tonight. (Figures from the VoteUK forum).
"Westmorland & Furness: Hawcoat & New Barn
Reform gain from Conservative, with change since 2022 in brackets
Reform 1,139 (48.4%/new) Labour 576 (24.5%/-10.9%) Conservative 447 (19%/-22.9%) Green 121 (5.1%/new) Liberal democrat 69 (2.9%/-2.9%)"
Kemis new Con Army in meltdown
Reform and Restore to it's Right and no one believing it's current Leadership is anything but Right Wing Tory.
She can wear pale Blue, sky Blue , light Blue, the Tories will only be considered credible, relevant , electable wen they find a new Leader who is a genuine mature centre right Politician
I think keeping Kemi is probably the Tories best option, not so much because she is good, more that all the alternatives are even worse.
In a political environment where both Reform and Restore are campaigning as overtly racist, voters are not going to switch to a right wing party led by a Black woman.
If they like that racially divisive politics they will vote Reform/Restore, if they loathe it they will vote Lab/LD/Green/SNP/PC.
Her best chance is to get completely away from the Culture War Social Media stuff and concentrate on bread and butter issues that matter to the voters such as the economy, taxation and education.
Badenoch is trying to eat Farage's lunch. If I were a Tory (which thankfully I am not) I would be very nervous for the next general election.
Despite the ramping on here, I see incompetence of an order we would not see with Cleverly or Hunt as LOTO. David Cameron writing her speeches and prepping her for PMQs does not change that.
OMG, how dare a female Conservative politician follow in the footsteps on her female predessors as a leader of her party and then have the temerity to have the political intelligence and charisma along with an ability to think on her feet and tell it like it is?!
Are you going to South Aberdeen and putting this point to the voters there? Surely the open racism and sexism you allege would be a vote winner for Kemi there. Tories should be a shoe-in.
As a matter of interest has Badenoch been up to campaign in either or both of the Scottish byelections? Or any Labour front bencher?
If not, why not?
OMG!! You have literally just nailed my earlier point about the lack of any media coverage of the other two Westminster by-elections in the media and your ignorance of the campaigns or likely outcomes. And yes, Kemi Badenoch has been up campaigning here for the Scottish Conservatives unlike Keir Starmer or Nigel Farage!!
Do you think that the SCon will do better in Aberdeen South than losing half their vote, bearing in mind they did that just 6 weeks ago in the Holyrood elections?
The SCon and Reform combined votes were clearly bigger than the SNP vote in Aberdeen South
A real election result from tonight. (Figures from the VoteUK forum).
"Westmorland & Furness: Hawcoat & New Barn
Reform gain from Conservative, with change since 2022 in brackets
Reform 1,139 (48.4%/new) Labour 576 (24.5%/-10.9%) Conservative 447 (19%/-22.9%) Green 121 (5.1%/new) Liberal democrat 69 (2.9%/-2.9%)"
Kemis new Con Army in meltdown
Reform and Restore to it's Right and no one believing it's current Leadership is anything but Right Wing Tory.
She can wear pale Blue, sky Blue , light Blue, the Tories will only be considered credible, relevant , electable wen they find a new Leader who is a genuine mature centre right Politician
I think keeping Kemi is probably the Tories best option, not so much because she is good, more that all the alternatives are even worse.
In a political environment where both Reform and Restore are campaigning as overtly racist, voters are not going to switch to a right wing party led by a Black woman.
If they like that racially divisive politics they will vote Reform/Restore, if they loathe it they will vote Lab/LD/Green/SNP/PC.
Her best chance is to get completely away from the Culture War Social Media stuff and concentrate on bread and butter issues that matter to the voters such as the economy, taxation and education.
Oh I am bookmarking this absolutely awful political prediction post by you Foxy, its utterly on another level when it comes to the left leaning chauvinistic male view of politics on this site!! I just have no words other than I am not surprised this site now has a real cross party women contribution problem when it comes to reading pig ignorant patronising posts like this!!
Seriously did you even engage your brain or read back your comment before posting it?! More importantly, did you even bother to recognise the current rising personal polling of that incredible politically talented and charismatic black woman leading the Conservative party right now who is currently taking on both the far right and left flank of UK politics to take control of the central ground in British politics by good old honest talking sense?!
If it were so, why are the Tories languishing on 17%, down 7% from the GE?
(Also: "left leaning chauvinistic male view of politics on this site" - Left leaning?? Sure, there are a few of us on here who are left of centre but we're easily outnumbered by those on the right. Which is fine - I hope PB never becomes the sole preserve of the left or the right.)
Where are the regular cross party female posters on this site these days?! And no, you are not outnumbered by those on the right, please don't insult our intelligence, this site has become the preserve of the left leaning Dads shed issue men on the left and that is why its so patronisingly boring and more importantly out of touch! It is also why that dismissive and frankly patronising Foxy post earlier was an absolutely classic of this genre of the theme of this site these days and yet so quickly accepted and why it made me so angry!
What has happened to this once incredible politically robust cross party debating site, and one that originally welcomed a growing cross party female perspective despite the awful misogyny of the odd poster on here which I and others had the misfortune to come under attack from because we were females from the centre right of politics.
There are, sadly, few women, it appears, on PB, but I think the claim the site is the preserve of left leaning Dads is inaccurate. What of TheScreamingEagles, Casino_Royale, Sandpit, Andy_JS, williamglenn, Luckyguy1983, HYUFD, Fishing, Sweeney74, Big_G_NorthWales, scampi25, another_richard etc.?
I think we all tend to notice the people we disagree with more.
I've been posting off and on here since 2005, and women have always been under-represented on the site. I think that's probably because in general, quite sensibly, they have better things to do.
A real election result from tonight. (Figures from the VoteUK forum).
"Westmorland & Furness: Hawcoat & New Barn
Reform gain from Conservative, with change since 2022 in brackets
Reform 1,139 (48.4%/new) Labour 576 (24.5%/-10.9%) Conservative 447 (19%/-22.9%) Green 121 (5.1%/new) Liberal democrat 69 (2.9%/-2.9%)"
Kemis new Con Army in meltdown
Reform and Restore to it's Right and no one believing it's current Leadership is anything but Right Wing Tory.
She can wear pale Blue, sky Blue , light Blue, the Tories will only be considered credible, relevant , electable wen they find a new Leader who is a genuine mature centre right Politician
I think keeping Kemi is probably the Tories best option, not so much because she is good, more that all the alternatives are even worse.
In a political environment where both Reform and Restore are campaigning as overtly racist, voters are not going to switch to a right wing party led by a Black woman.
If they like that racially divisive politics they will vote Reform/Restore, if they loathe it they will vote Lab/LD/Green/SNP/PC.
Her best chance is to get completely away from the Culture War Social Media stuff and concentrate on bread and butter issues that matter to the voters such as the economy, taxation and education.
Oh I am bookmarking this absolutely awful political prediction post by you Foxy, its utterly on another level when it comes to the left leaning chauvinistic male view of politics on this site!! I just have no words other than I am not surprised this site now has a real cross party women contribution problem when it comes to reading pig ignorant patronising posts like this!!
Seriously did you even engage your brain or read back your comment before posting it?! More importantly, did you even bother to recognise the current rising personal polling of that incredible politically talented and charismatic black woman leading the Conservative party right now who is currently taking on both the far right and left flank of UK politics to take control of the central ground in British politics by good old honest talking sense?!
If it were so, why are the Tories languishing on 17%, down 7% from the GE?
(Also: "left leaning chauvinistic male view of politics on this site" - Left leaning?? Sure, there are a few of us on here who are left of centre but we're easily outnumbered by those on the right. Which is fine - I hope PB never becomes the sole preserve of the left or the right.)
Where are the regular cross party female posters on this site these days?! And no, you are not outnumbered by those on the right, please don't insult our intelligence, this site has become the preserve of the left leaning Dads shed issue men on the left and that is why its so patronisingly boring and more importantly out of touch! It is also why that dismissive and frankly patronising Foxy post earlier was an absolutely classic of this genre of the theme of this site these days and yet so quickly accepted and why it made me so angry!
What has happened to this once incredible politically robust cross party debating site, and one that originally welcomed a growing cross party female perspective despite the awful misogyny of the odd poster on here which I and others had the misfortune to come under attack from because we were females from the centre right of politics.
There are, sadly, few women, it appears, on PB, but I think the claim the site is the preserve of left leaning Dads is inaccurate. What of TheScreamingEagles, Casino_Royale, Sandpit, Andy_JS, williamglenn, Luckyguy1983, HYUFD, Fishing, Sweeney74, Big_G_NorthWales, scampi25, another_richard etc.?
I think we all tend to notice the people we disagree with more.
I've been posting off and on here since 2005, and women have always been under-represented on the site. I think that's probably because in general, quite sensibly, they have better things to do.
... and are bored by the cricket.
and the trains? more of a male pursuit getting excited over trains, I believe.
A fascinating article about the lost world of rock that got blown away by punk. I can't stand punk music personally, except for the more new wave stuff that is sometimes bundled up with it, like the Stranglers or Blondie. Call me old fashioned, but I like songs with a tune. I don't really like the gobby attitude associated with it either. I turned 1 in 1976 so I was a bit young for it all anyway.
That was a really fun article but I'm not sure I buy the premise. It's not punk that has erased our memory of a lot of the bands mentioned but time. The really good or the really popular Glam, Prog or Pub rock bands are still remembered. It's like how many big band leaders of the 30s and 40s did someone remember in the 90s? Also it's a shaky starting point to try to divine much about general musical taste from the pages of music magazines. The art school graduate types who ran them were way more susceptible to the ersatz philosophy of punk than the general population. Good to see my beloved Sailor mentioned though. They're a brilliant example of a band who's hits are very unrepresentative of the rest of their output.
It's more that punk killed the hopes of a lot of those who hadn't yet quite made it.
..“By the time we got into the dressing room, the Pistols had left, and so had the cash from my back pocket. So that was a really bad day: my career had gone and so had 12 quid.”..
There are many issues that Reform could campaign on but seem to concentrate on immigration. They are often tagged as racist and may be so. Or they could be very good political operators that see an hot-button issue that will never be solved over this next generation. Local news highlighting the large drop in primary school intake (10% - 13%) compared to a decade ago. This compares to Adult Social Care and SEND eating up Local Authority budgets.
So the usual reminder that Reform and Restore don't have solutions. Or if their solutions were implemented we'd (aka the young taxpayers) be in a very difficult position in terms of supporting the domestic population. Remove immigration and the line drops significantly.
Do you realise that not all immigrants are net tax contributors ?
The young taxpayers will be funding not just oldies but also many of the immigrants.
Immigrants do have a higher employment rate than natives.
The dependency ratio is not purely about tax either. There is a need for workers to keep essential services and industries going like Social Care, agriculture, food processing and building even if these are often poorly paid.
Previously I jokingly said why not deport the pensioners but I'm coming round to that POV.
We penalise pensioners who leave the UK by removing index linking from their pensions. So why not make the SRP fully portable after 67 (or earlier) so that dual nationals can take their cash with them and off to sunnier climes in India, Pakistan and the Caribean. Why prevent them (economically) from leaving?
Or why not rebrand the Bibby Stockholm as the Disney Stockholm and tow it around the Med.
And rather than stripping countries of the doctors and nurses, why not take the sick to the doctors. Philippines and South Africa are much more pleasant that the West Midlands.
A fascinating article about the lost world of rock that got blown away by punk. I can't stand punk music personally, except for the more new wave stuff that is sometimes bundled up with it, like the Stranglers or Blondie. Call me old fashioned, but I like songs with a tune. I don't really like the gobby attitude associated with it either. I turned 1 in 1976 so I was a bit young for it all anyway.
That attitude was often literal - gobbing at gigs being a definite thing. I wasn't keen on that aspect. Some of the music I did like at the time (I was bang on the right age for it) but very little of the genre has made it onto my playlists today.
A real election result from tonight. (Figures from the VoteUK forum).
"Westmorland & Furness: Hawcoat & New Barn
Reform gain from Conservative, with change since 2022 in brackets
Reform 1,139 (48.4%/new) Labour 576 (24.5%/-10.9%) Conservative 447 (19%/-22.9%) Green 121 (5.1%/new) Liberal democrat 69 (2.9%/-2.9%)"
Kemis new Con Army in meltdown
Reform and Restore to it's Right and no one believing it's current Leadership is anything but Right Wing Tory.
She can wear pale Blue, sky Blue , light Blue, the Tories will only be considered credible, relevant , electable wen they find a new Leader who is a genuine mature centre right Politician
I think keeping Kemi is probably the Tories best option, not so much because she is good, more that all the alternatives are even worse.
In a political environment where both Reform and Restore are campaigning as overtly racist, voters are not going to switch to a right wing party led by a Black woman.
If they like that racially divisive politics they will vote Reform/Restore, if they loathe it they will vote Lab/LD/Green/SNP/PC.
Her best chance is to get completely away from the Culture War Social Media stuff and concentrate on bread and butter issues that matter to the voters such as the economy, taxation and education.
Badenoch is trying to eat Farage's lunch. If I were a Tory (which thankfully I am not) I would be very nervous for the next general election.
Despite the ramping on here, I see incompetence of an order we would not see with Cleverly or Hunt as LOTO. David Cameron writing her speeches and prepping her for PMQs does not change that.
OMG, how dare a female Conservative politician follow in the footsteps on her female predessors as a leader of her party and then have the temerity to have the political intelligence and charisma along with an ability to think on her feet and tell it like it is?!
Are you going to South Aberdeen and putting this point to the voters there? Surely the open racism and sexism you allege would be a vote winner for Kemi there. Tories should be a shoe-in.
As a matter of interest has Badenoch been up to campaign in either or both of the Scottish byelections? Or any Labour front bencher?
If not, why not?
OMG!! You have literally just nailed my earlier point about the lack of any media coverage of the other two Westminster by-elections in the media and your ignorance of the campaigns or likely outcomes. And yes, Kemi Badenoch has been up campaigning here for the Scottish Conservatives unlike Keir Starmer or Nigel Farage!!
Do you think that the SCon will do better in Aberdeen South than losing half their vote, bearing in mind they did that just 6 weeks ago in the Holyrood elections?
Here is a thought, why don't you bother to go look up the performance of the Scottish Conservative candidates in some of the key North East Holyrood constituencies despite the performance of Reform in the area, and when you do, don't let your patronising lack of knowledge hit your behookie on the way out!!
Spelling. Your not an Aberdonian and I claim my 5 merk.
I’m sorry in the advance for the “I’m leaving” post (as a semi-regular poster at best, it feels a bit self-indulgent to post this but I don’t like vanishing without a trace). I am signing off from commenting for the foreseeable future. There are a few reasons for this but the main one is that I have had a few “trial periods” of stepping back from following politics quite as closely, and found that it gave me an ability to focus on other hobbies and interests - which I have really enjoyed. I think it’s time to make it a little more permanent.
The country is not well governed right now, has not been for some time and I don’t have any great hope that will change for a while. Burnham might help Labour reset the dial for a bit, but I am far from convinced he has the answers the country needs and my prediction is that Labour will find themselves facing the same problems in a matter of months. Reform are just depressing, and Badenoch is starting to come into her own but the Tory brand is still extremely toxic - so the jury is out on how much impact she can make. In that rather intractable situation, I’d much rather take myself away from the day-to-day.
I will keep following things from afar (and may even have the occasional lurk on here!) but I would much rather my news content is a quick check once a day than an involved debate and discussion - that’s just where I find myself happier at the moment. That may change in time, but I don’t expect to be back very soon. I genuinely wish everyone on here, on all sides of the debate, all the best - I have really enjoyed all the discussions over the years and very grateful to TSE, OGH and everyone else involved with running the site for keeping it going.
A fascinating article about the lost world of rock that got blown away by punk. I can't stand punk music personally, except for the more new wave stuff that is sometimes bundled up with it, like the Stranglers or Blondie. Call me old fashioned, but I like songs with a tune. I don't really like the gobby attitude associated with it either. I turned 1 in 1976 so I was a bit young for it all anyway.
People also conveniently forget Punk rocks flirtation with the Far rights and Nazi symbolism.
A real election result from tonight. (Figures from the VoteUK forum).
"Westmorland & Furness: Hawcoat & New Barn
Reform gain from Conservative, with change since 2022 in brackets
Reform 1,139 (48.4%/new) Labour 576 (24.5%/-10.9%) Conservative 447 (19%/-22.9%) Green 121 (5.1%/new) Liberal democrat 69 (2.9%/-2.9%)"
So much for HYUFD's notion of Labourites tactically voting Tory to keep Reform out.
They did in Harlow, Broxbourne, Fareham etc in May.
On that result though clearly more Labour voters went direct to Reform since 2022 and in 2022 the Tories got 30% under Boris so no tactical voting will make up for the Tory votes lost since then. Whereas seats last up in 2024 the Tories could still hold with tactical votes
In an echo of 'woke libtards made me Nazi', Lord Mann thinks Green Party extremist candidates are to blame for the right wing press printing antisemitic cartoons. Is he as thick as he appears?
John Mann @LordJohnMann All four are antisemitic. Which is precisely why removing Green Party extremist candidates is necessary.
A real election result from tonight. (Figures from the VoteUK forum).
"Westmorland & Furness: Hawcoat & New Barn
Reform gain from Conservative, with change since 2022 in brackets
Reform 1,139 (48.4%/new) Labour 576 (24.5%/-10.9%) Conservative 447 (19%/-22.9%) Green 121 (5.1%/new) Liberal democrat 69 (2.9%/-2.9%)"
Kemis new Con Army in meltdown
Reform and Restore to it's Right and no one believing it's current Leadership is anything but Right Wing Tory.
She can wear pale Blue, sky Blue , light Blue, the Tories will only be considered credible, relevant , electable wen they find a new Leader who is a genuine mature centre right Politician
I think keeping Kemi is probably the Tories best option, not so much because she is good, more that all the alternatives are even worse.
In a political environment where both Reform and Restore are campaigning as overtly racist, voters are not going to switch to a right wing party led by a Black woman.
If they like that racially divisive politics they will vote Reform/Restore, if they loathe it they will vote Lab/LD/Green/SNP/PC.
Her best chance is to get completely away from the Culture War Social Media stuff and concentrate on bread and butter issues that matter to the voters such as the economy, taxation and education.
Badenoch is trying to eat Farage's lunch. If I were a Tory (which thankfully I am not) I would be very nervous for the next general election.
Despite the ramping on here, I see incompetence of an order we would not see with Cleverly or Hunt as LOTO. David Cameron writing her speeches and prepping her for PMQs does not change that.
OMG, how dare a female Conservative politician follow in the footsteps on her female predessors as a leader of her party and then have the temerity to have the political intelligence and charisma along with an ability to think on her feet and tell it like it is?!
Are you going to South Aberdeen and putting this point to the voters there? Surely the open racism and sexism you allege would be a vote winner for Kemi there. Tories should be a shoe-in.
As a matter of interest has Badenoch been up to campaign in either or both of the Scottish byelections? Or any Labour front bencher?
If not, why not?
OMG!! You have literally just nailed my earlier point about the lack of any media coverage of the other two Westminster by-elections in the media and your ignorance of the campaigns or likely outcomes. And yes, Kemi Badenoch has been up campaigning here for the Scottish Conservatives unlike Keir Starmer or Nigel Farage!!
Do you think that the SCon will do better in Aberdeen South than losing half their vote, bearing in mind they did that just 6 weeks ago in the Holyrood elections?
Here is a thought, why don't you bother to go look up the performance of the Scottish Conservative candidates in some of the key North East Holyrood constituencies despite the performance of Reform in the area, and when you do, don't let your patronising lack of knowledge hit your behookie on the way out!!
In their key targets SCon did OK both this year and in 24. That's not to say Aberdeen South is in the bag - far from it - but SNP may have reasons to be nervous if the by election turns into a referendum on oil and gas.
There are many issues that Reform could campaign on but seem to concentrate on immigration. They are often tagged as racist and may be so. Or they could be very good political operators that see an hot-button issue that will never be solved over this next generation. Local news highlighting the large drop in primary school intake (10% - 13%) compared to a decade ago. This compares to Adult Social Care and SEND eating up Local Authority budgets.
So the usual reminder that Reform and Restore don't have solutions. Or if their solutions were implemented we'd (aka the young taxpayers) be in a very difficult position in terms of supporting the domestic population. Remove immigration and the line drops significantly.
Do you realise that not all immigrants are net tax contributors ?
The young taxpayers will be funding not just oldies but also many of the immigrants.
Immigrants do have a higher employment rate than natives.
The dependency ratio is not purely about tax either. There is a need for workers to keep essential services and industries going like Social Care, agriculture, food processing and building even if these are often poorly paid.
Then employ some of the millions of British people who will not work.
Rather than subsidising them to do nothing while simultaneously subsidizing more immigrants to do low skilled work or to do nothing.
Alternatively invest in new technology to replace low skilled work.
Many seem to welcome a declining population and I can see some benefits but we need some proper thought as to the economic, social and political consequences which as usual seems to be lacking.
The last time we saw birthrates fall, councils took the opportunity to close or merge schools and sell playing fields for residential redevelopment only to be caught out by the immigration-led rebound in birth rates after 2004 leaving a scramble for temporary classrooms and extensions to existing facilties.
IF this is permanent, school place planners will be looking at future demand, capacity and suitability scenarios and we could see another round of school sell offs, closures and land made available for development.
We will presumably not be looking at a broad demographic decline but an even more accentuated structure of an ageing population and a declining work force. You are right inasmuch as investment in new technology, business process re-engineering and the like can make a difference but "the million neets" (to use the popular slang) will only have a limited impact.
A fascinating article about the lost world of rock that got blown away by punk. I can't stand punk music personally, except for the more new wave stuff that is sometimes bundled up with it, like the Stranglers or Blondie. Call me old fashioned, but I like songs with a tune. I don't really like the gobby attitude associated with it either. I turned 1 in 1976 so I was a bit young for it all anyway.
People also conveniently forget Punk rocks flirtation with the Far rights and Nazi symbolism.
A very seedy underbelly to punk.
Although, nice tunes.
Yeah I was trying to keep this politics free but very much agree on the far right aspect, another reason why I don't care for punk much, apart from the paucity of tunes and the spitting.
A real election result from tonight. (Figures from the VoteUK forum).
"Westmorland & Furness: Hawcoat & New Barn
Reform gain from Conservative, with change since 2022 in brackets
Reform 1,139 (48.4%/new) Labour 576 (24.5%/-10.9%) Conservative 447 (19%/-22.9%) Green 121 (5.1%/new) Liberal democrat 69 (2.9%/-2.9%)"
Kemis new Con Army in meltdown
Reform and Restore to it's Right and no one believing it's current Leadership is anything but Right Wing Tory.
She can wear pale Blue, sky Blue , light Blue, the Tories will only be considered credible, relevant , electable wen they find a new Leader who is a genuine mature centre right Politician
I think keeping Kemi is probably the Tories best option, not so much because she is good, more that all the alternatives are even worse.
In a political environment where both Reform and Restore are campaigning as overtly racist, voters are not going to switch to a right wing party led by a Black woman.
If they like that racially divisive politics they will vote Reform/Restore, if they loathe it they will vote Lab/LD/Green/SNP/PC.
Her best chance is to get completely away from the Culture War Social Media stuff and concentrate on bread and butter issues that matter to the voters such as the economy, taxation and education.
Oh I am bookmarking this absolutely awful political prediction post by you Foxy, its utterly on another level when it comes to the left leaning chauvinistic male view of politics on this site!! I just have no words other than I am not surprised this site now has a real cross party women contribution problem when it comes to reading pig ignorant patronising posts like this!!
Seriously did you even engage your brain or read back your comment before posting it?! More importantly, did you even bother to recognise the current rising personal polling of that incredible politically talented and charismatic black woman leading the Conservative party right now who is currently taking on both the far right and left flank of UK politics to take control of the central ground in British politics by good old honest talking sense?!
If it were so, why are the Tories languishing on 17%, down 7% from the GE?
(Also: "left leaning chauvinistic male view of politics on this site" - Left leaning?? Sure, there are a few of us on here who are left of centre but we're easily outnumbered by those on the right. Which is fine - I hope PB never becomes the sole preserve of the left or the right.)
Where are the regular cross party female posters on this site these days?! And no, you are not outnumbered by those on the right, please don't insult our intelligence, this site has become the preserve of the left leaning Dads shed issue men on the left and that is why its so patronisingly boring and more importantly out of touch! It is also why that dismissive and frankly patronising Foxy post earlier was an absolutely classic of this genre of the theme of this site these days and yet so quickly accepted and why it made me so angry!
What has happened to this once incredible politically robust cross party debating site, and one that originally welcomed a growing cross party female perspective despite the awful misogyny of the odd poster on here which I and others had the misfortune to come under attack from because we were females from the centre right of politics.
There are, sadly, few women, it appears, on PB, but I think the claim the site is the preserve of left leaning Dads is inaccurate. What of TheScreamingEagles, Casino_Royale, Sandpit, Andy_JS, williamglenn, Luckyguy1983, HYUFD, Fishing, Sweeney74, Big_G_NorthWales, scampi25, another_richard etc.?
I think we all tend to notice the people we disagree with more.
Fishing is the most right wing person not only on PB but in the world.
I watched Question Time for the first time in a couple of years last night. A brief summary. Reform have picked a duffer. Rob looked like a rabbit caught in the headlights, and his biggest weakness, more significant than his social media history, was that he just doesn't know, or understand, much at all. Burnham was just Burnham. The Tory was quite appealing - civilised, pleasant and reasonable, rather old school. The other two (Green and Lib Dem) didn't really register much, though they were both much more articulate than Rob.
I really don't understand why Reform have put up such a weak candidate (though I don't mind). The contrast between sassy Hannah the plumber in Gorton & Denton and Rob the plumber in Makerfield is huge, irrespective of their political stances.
Reform's problem is that Farage wants to lead a protest movement not an alternative future government.
So its going to be a series of untrained candidates and undeveloped policies.
Farage should have been using his donated money to turn Reform into a professional outfit.
I think you'll find that money had nothing to do with politics whatsoever, and was merely a purely personal gift from a dear old friend. Otherwise, Nigel would surely have diligently declared every penny to Parliamentary authorities on his election. And I am certain the ongoing investigation will fully exonerate him.
Every penny that is just resting in his accounts, Shirley?
After all, Nige is insistent that the money used to buy houses for cash, was *other* money.
In an echo of 'woke libtards meade me Nazi', Lord Mann thinks Green Party extremist candidates are making the right wing press print antisemitic cartoons. Is he as thick as he appears?
John Mann @LordJohnMann All four are antisemitic. Which is precisely why removing Green Party extremist candidates is necessary.
I am surprised Labour have kept him on board. Wasn't Mann one of the Labourites touted as joining Johnson's RedWall cabal back in the days of peak Labour anti-Semitism.?
I’m sorry in the advance for the “I’m leaving” post (as a semi-regular poster at best, it feels a bit self-indulgent to post this but I don’t like vanishing without a trace). I am signing off from commenting for the foreseeable future. There are a few reasons for this but the main one is that I have had a few “trial periods” of stepping back from following politics quite as closely, and found that it gave me an ability to focus on other hobbies and interests - which I have really enjoyed. I think it’s time to make it a little more permanent.
The country is not well governed right now, has not been for some time and I don’t have any great hope that will change for a while. Burnham might help Labour reset the dial for a bit, but I am far from convinced he has the answers the country needs and my prediction is that Labour will find themselves facing the same problems in a matter of months. Reform are just depressing, and Badenoch is starting to come into her own but the Tory brand is still extremely toxic - so the jury is out on how much impact she can make. In that rather intractable situation, I’d much rather take myself away from the day-to-day.
I will keep following things from afar (and may even have the occasional lurk on here!) but I would much rather my news content is a quick check once a day than an involved debate and discussion - that’s just where I find myself happier at the moment. That may change in time, but I don’t expect to be back very soon. I genuinely wish everyone on here, on all sides of the debate, all the best - I have really enjoyed all the discussions over the years and very grateful to TSE, OGH and everyone else involved with running the site for keeping it going.
All the very best and hopefully you will return one day
A real election result from tonight. (Figures from the VoteUK forum).
"Westmorland & Furness: Hawcoat & New Barn
Reform gain from Conservative, with change since 2022 in brackets
Reform 1,139 (48.4%/new) Labour 576 (24.5%/-10.9%) Conservative 447 (19%/-22.9%) Green 121 (5.1%/new) Liberal democrat 69 (2.9%/-2.9%)"
Kemis new Con Army in meltdown
Reform and Restore to it's Right and no one believing it's current Leadership is anything but Right Wing Tory.
She can wear pale Blue, sky Blue , light Blue, the Tories will only be considered credible, relevant , electable wen they find a new Leader who is a genuine mature centre right Politician
I think keeping Kemi is probably the Tories best option, not so much because she is good, more that all the alternatives are even worse.
In a political environment where both Reform and Restore are campaigning as overtly racist, voters are not going to switch to a right wing party led by a Black woman.
If they like that racially divisive politics they will vote Reform/Restore, if they loathe it they will vote Lab/LD/Green/SNP/PC.
Her best chance is to get completely away from the Culture War Social Media stuff and concentrate on bread and butter issues that matter to the voters such as the economy, taxation and education.
Badenoch is trying to eat Farage's lunch. If I were a Tory (which thankfully I am not) I would be very nervous for the next general election.
Despite the ramping on here, I see incompetence of an order we would not see with Cleverly or Hunt as LOTO. David Cameron writing her speeches and prepping her for PMQs does not change that.
OMG, how dare a female Conservative politician follow in the footsteps on her female predessors as a leader of her party and then have the temerity to have the political intelligence and charisma along with an ability to think on her feet and tell it like it is?!
Are you going to South Aberdeen and putting this point to the voters there? Surely the open racism and sexism you allege would be a vote winner for Kemi there. Tories should be a shoe-in.
As a matter of interest has Badenoch been up to campaign in either or both of the Scottish byelections? Or any Labour front bencher?
If not, why not?
OMG!! You have literally just nailed my earlier point about the lack of any media coverage of the other two Westminster by-elections in the media and your ignorance of the campaigns or likely outcomes. And yes, Kemi Badenoch has been up campaigning here for the Scottish Conservatives unlike Keir Starmer or Nigel Farage!!
Do you think that the SCon will do better in Aberdeen South than losing half their vote, bearing in mind they did that just 6 weeks ago in the Holyrood elections?
The SCon and Reform combined votes were clearly bigger than the SNP vote in Aberdeen South
Yes, but as we often see, they cannot be considered as a single block of voters. Reform dislike the Tories nearly as much as they dislike Labour or SNP.
I note that in the recent Holyrood elections Reform out polled SCon.
I would grade SCon performance in Aberdeen South on the scale
15% Grim 15-20% poor 20%-25% respectable 2nd or 3rd place 25%+ a degree of progress.
I do think SCon will keep both deposits, which would make it their best byelection performances this parliament.
A fascinating article about the lost world of rock that got blown away by punk. I can't stand punk music personally, except for the more new wave stuff that is sometimes bundled up with it, like the Stranglers or Blondie. Call me old fashioned, but I like songs with a tune. I don't really like the gobby attitude associated with it either. I turned 1 in 1976 so I was a bit young for it all anyway.
I think it's interesting that Bowie made his greatest music in that period, though he did have to leave the country to do so.
I think Bowie is overrated (runs for cover). He did his best work with Nile Rodgers, who IMHO is one of the most brilliant songwriters/producers of the 20th century so that's not surprising (hint for parties: just play Nile Rodgers songs and the dance floor will be permanently full).
I watched Question Time for the first time in a couple of years last night. A brief summary. Reform have picked a duffer. Rob looked like a rabbit caught in the headlights, and his biggest weakness, more significant than his social media history, was that he just doesn't know, or understand, much at all. Burnham was just Burnham. The Tory was quite appealing - civilised, pleasant and reasonable, rather old school. The other two (Green and Lib Dem) didn't really register much, though they were both much more articulate than Rob.
I really don't understand why Reform have put up such a weak candidate (though I don't mind). The contrast between sassy Hannah the plumber in Gorton & Denton and Rob the plumber in Makerfield is huge, irrespective of their political stances.
Reform's problem is that Farage wants to lead a protest movement not an alternative future government.
So its going to be a series of untrained candidates and undeveloped policies.
Farage should have been using his donated money to turn Reform into a professional outfit.
I think you'll find that money had nothing to do with politics whatsoever, and was merely a purely personal gift from a dear old friend. Otherwise, Nigel would surely have diligently declared every penny to Parliamentary authorities on his election. And I am certain the ongoing investigation will fully exonerate him.
Every penny that is just resting in his accounts, Shirley?
After all, Nige is insistent that the money used to buy houses for cash, was *other* money.
Crikey, it’s all getting a bit Father Ted !!
Ah, you are one of those people who don't realise that Father Ted was a documentary about the *least crazy* people in the world?
A fascinating article about the lost world of rock that got blown away by punk. I can't stand punk music personally, except for the more new wave stuff that is sometimes bundled up with it, like the Stranglers or Blondie. Call me old fashioned, but I like songs with a tune. I don't really like the gobby attitude associated with it either. I turned 1 in 1976 so I was a bit young for it all anyway.
People also conveniently forget Punk rocks flirtation with the Far rights and Nazi symbolism.
A very seedy underbelly to punk.
Although, nice tunes.
Yeah I was trying to keep this politics free but very much agree on the far right aspect, another reason why I don't care for punk much, apart from the paucity of tunes and the spitting.
I didn’t care for the spitting either. Vile habit.
Music wise I quite liked some of the stuff, probably more new wave. I like guitar based music.
The Sex Pistols with stuff like Belsen was a Gas and God Bless Martin Bormann and all the Nazis on the run.
People conveniently turn a blind eye to it as they are seen as cool.
There are many issues that Reform could campaign on but seem to concentrate on immigration. They are often tagged as racist and may be so. Or they could be very good political operators that see an hot-button issue that will never be solved over this next generation. Local news highlighting the large drop in primary school intake (10% - 13%) compared to a decade ago. This compares to Adult Social Care and SEND eating up Local Authority budgets.
So the usual reminder that Reform and Restore don't have solutions. Or if their solutions were implemented we'd (aka the young taxpayers) be in a very difficult position in terms of supporting the domestic population. Remove immigration and the line drops significantly.
Do you realise that not all immigrants are net tax contributors ?
The young taxpayers will be funding not just oldies but also many of the immigrants.
Immigrants do have a higher employment rate than natives.
The dependency ratio is not purely about tax either. There is a need for workers to keep essential services and industries going like Social Care, agriculture, food processing and building even if these are often poorly paid.
Previously I jokingly said why not deport the pensioners but I'm coming round to that POV.
We penalise pensioners who leave the UK by removing index linking from their pensions. So why not make the SRP fully portable after 67 (or earlier) so that dual nationals can take their cash with them and off to sunnier climes in India, Pakistan and the Caribean. Why prevent them (economically) from leaving?
Or why not rebrand the Bibby Stockholm as the Disney Stockholm and tow it around the Med.
And rather than stripping countries of the doctors and nurses, why not take the sick to the doctors. Philippines and South Africa are much more pleasant that the West Midlands.
I wouldn't mind spending what's left of my life somewhere with a more settled, and warmer, climate. Although I've just had a very pleasant Saturday watching local cricket on a warm summer afternoon, and, in my experience, one would have to go a long way to beat that!
Anyway, Good Morning, ladies and gentlemen. I'm sure there are some of both here!
And thanks to everyone for not describing me as a Centrist Dad. I'm a Dad, for sure, indeed a Gt-GranDad, but I'm happy to be described as a Lefty!
I watched Question Time for the first time in a couple of years last night. A brief summary. Reform have picked a duffer. Rob looked like a rabbit caught in the headlights, and his biggest weakness, more significant than his social media history, was that he just doesn't know, or understand, much at all. Burnham was just Burnham. The Tory was quite appealing - civilised, pleasant and reasonable, rather old school. The other two (Green and Lib Dem) didn't really register much, though they were both much more articulate than Rob.
I really don't understand why Reform have put up such a weak candidate (though I don't mind). The contrast between sassy Hannah the plumber in Gorton & Denton and Rob the plumber in Makerfield is huge, irrespective of their political stances.
Kenyon was the incumbent candidate fro, 2024 so I get why inertia may have carried him.
As for why him, why not? The assumption amongst many parties is that northerners are thick, so have a candidate to match. From a posh southern Reform perspective that lot don't know any better, just shout immigrants at them and they'll vote for anything.
The comedy is that last night highlighted the real choice here. If people want change there is a candidate who is articulate, passionate, creative and has a clear plan to change how stuff gets done. Or you have Mr women are slags.
Reform's vote has been sliding for a while nationally, the "tight" claim of this by-election now replaced by a 10pt Burnham lead, and I expect that to widen further.
Reform should be very happy that the Restore candidate was not allowed on Question Time she would been shown to be the sane choice.
Equally I doubt many Makerfield voters actually watched the program so the only bit that may cross over is more confirmation that the Reform candidate isn’t very bright
The saner choice of the insane choices, perhaps. Not withstanding the polls, it does feel like we are hitting peak Farage, and a combo of a recovering Kemi and the prospect of Labour stopping their hole digging shenanigans might just knock NF back a fair deal.
I am certainly not backing Farage to lead the largest party next time.
In the wider world, and maybe related, it also feels like Trump and Putin may be heading towards their last hurrah... well we can certainly hope so,
A fascinating article about the lost world of rock that got blown away by punk. I can't stand punk music personally, except for the more new wave stuff that is sometimes bundled up with it, like the Stranglers or Blondie. Call me old fashioned, but I like songs with a tune. I don't really like the gobby attitude associated with it either. I turned 1 in 1976 so I was a bit young for it all anyway.
People also conveniently forget Punk rocks flirtation with the Far rights and Nazi symbolism.
A very seedy underbelly to punk.
Although, nice tunes.
Yeah I was trying to keep this politics free but very much agree on the far right aspect, another reason why I don't care for punk much, apart from the paucity of tunes and the spitting.
I didn’t care for the spitting either. Vile habit.
Music wise I quite liked some of the stuff, probably more new wave. I like guitar based music.
There are many issues that Reform could campaign on but seem to concentrate on immigration. They are often tagged as racist and may be so. Or they could be very good political operators that see an hot-button issue that will never be solved over this next generation. Local news highlighting the large drop in primary school intake (10% - 13%) compared to a decade ago. This compares to Adult Social Care and SEND eating up Local Authority budgets.
So the usual reminder that Reform and Restore don't have solutions. Or if their solutions were implemented we'd (aka the young taxpayers) be in a very difficult position in terms of supporting the domestic population. Remove immigration and the line drops significantly.
Do you realise that not all immigrants are net tax contributors ?
The young taxpayers will be funding not just oldies but also many of the immigrants.
Immigrants do have a higher employment rate than natives.
The dependency ratio is not purely about tax either. There is a need for workers to keep essential services and industries going like Social Care, agriculture, food processing and building even if these are often poorly paid.
Yep exactly. If a minimum wage carer enables a highly qualified professional to return to work (rather than care for a relative), overall output and tax take is significantly increased.
That’s why the chat about only importing “net contributors” is so weak, and even more so if you consider they are crowding out young ambitious Brits who might want a good job. Much more honest (and defendable tbh) to oppose immigration in general.
A fascinating article about the lost world of rock that got blown away by punk. I can't stand punk music personally, except for the more new wave stuff that is sometimes bundled up with it, like the Stranglers or Blondie. Call me old fashioned, but I like songs with a tune. I don't really like the gobby attitude associated with it either. I turned 1 in 1976 so I was a bit young for it all anyway.
I think it's interesting that Bowie made his greatest music in that period, though he did have to leave the country to do so.
I think Bowie is overrated (runs for cover). He did his best work with Nile Rodgers, who IMHO is one of the most brilliant songwriters/producers of the 20th century so that's not surprising (hint for parties: just play Nile Rodgers songs and the dance floor will be permanently full).
Rodgers is still touring, one of the best acts to see live.
🚨New: Fresh Labour infighting has broken out over Darren Jones’ future
Jones met a small number of female Labour MPs amidst the anger of his Mandelson messages - but two in the wider party have called on him to go
Jones’ supporters rallied behind him last night, with one telling @SkyNews he was the victim of a ‘character assassination’ coming from rival leadership camps
A real election result from tonight. (Figures from the VoteUK forum).
"Westmorland & Furness: Hawcoat & New Barn
Reform gain from Conservative, with change since 2022 in brackets
Reform 1,139 (48.4%/new) Labour 576 (24.5%/-10.9%) Conservative 447 (19%/-22.9%) Green 121 (5.1%/new) Liberal democrat 69 (2.9%/-2.9%)"
Kemis new Con Army in meltdown
Reform and Restore to it's Right and no one believing it's current Leadership is anything but Right Wing Tory.
She can wear pale Blue, sky Blue , light Blue, the Tories will only be considered credible, relevant , electable wen they find a new Leader who is a genuine mature centre right Politician
I think keeping Kemi is probably the Tories best option, not so much because she is good, more that all the alternatives are even worse.
In a political environment where both Reform and Restore are campaigning as overtly racist, voters are not going to switch to a right wing party led by a Black woman.
If they like that racially divisive politics they will vote Reform/Restore, if they loathe it they will vote Lab/LD/Green/SNP/PC.
Her best chance is to get completely away from the Culture War Social Media stuff and concentrate on bread and butter issues that matter to the voters such as the economy, taxation and education.
Badenoch is trying to eat Farage's lunch. If I were a Tory (which thankfully I am not) I would be very nervous for the next general election.
Despite the ramping on here, I see incompetence of an order we would not see with Cleverly or Hunt as LOTO. David Cameron writing her speeches and prepping her for PMQs does not change that.
OMG, how dare a female Conservative politician follow in the footsteps on her female predessors as a leader of her party and then have the temerity to have the political intelligence and charisma along with an ability to think on her feet and tell it like it is?!
Are you going to South Aberdeen and putting this point to the voters there? Surely the open racism and sexism you allege would be a vote winner for Kemi there. Tories should be a shoe-in.
As a matter of interest has Badenoch been up to campaign in either or both of the Scottish byelections? Or any Labour front bencher?
If not, why not?
OMG!! You have literally just nailed my earlier point about the lack of any media coverage of the other two Westminster by-elections in the media and your ignorance of the campaigns or likely outcomes. And yes, Kemi Badenoch has been up campaigning here for the Scottish Conservatives unlike Keir Starmer or Nigel Farage!!
Do you think that the SCon will do better in Aberdeen South than losing half their vote, bearing in mind they did that just 6 weeks ago in the Holyrood elections?
The SCon and Reform combined votes were clearly bigger than the SNP vote in Aberdeen South
Yes, but as we often see, they cannot be considered as a single block of voters. Reform dislike the Tories nearly as much as they dislike Labour or SNP.
I note that in the recent Holyrood elections Reform out polled SCon.
I would grade SCon performance in Aberdeen South on the scale
15% Grim 15-20% poor 20%-25% respectable 2nd or 3rd place 25%+ a degree of progress.
I do think SCon will keep both deposits, which would make it their best byelection performances this parliament.
In the largely equivalent Holyrood seat though the Conservatives were a clear second in May on 30% well ahead of Reform on 17% with the 2 parties combined votes well ahead of the SNP on 34%
I watched Question Time for the first time in a couple of years last night. A brief summary. Reform have picked a duffer. Rob looked like a rabbit caught in the headlights, and his biggest weakness, more significant than his social media history, was that he just doesn't know, or understand, much at all. Burnham was just Burnham. The Tory was quite appealing - civilised, pleasant and reasonable, rather old school. The other two (Green and Lib Dem) didn't really register much, though they were both much more articulate than Rob.
I really don't understand why Reform have put up such a weak candidate (though I don't mind). The contrast between sassy Hannah the plumber in Gorton & Denton and Rob the plumber in Makerfield is huge, irrespective of their political stances.
Kenyon was the incumbent candidate fro, 2024 so I get why inertia may have carried him.
As for why him, why not? The assumption amongst many parties is that northerners are thick, so have a candidate to match. From a posh southern Reform perspective that lot don't know any better, just shout immigrants at them and they'll vote for anything.
The comedy is that last night highlighted the real choice here. If people want change there is a candidate who is articulate, passionate, creative and has a clear plan to change how stuff gets done. Or you have Mr women are slags.
Reform's vote has been sliding for a while nationally, the "tight" claim of this by-election now replaced by a 10pt Burnham lead, and I expect that to widen further.
Reform should be very happy that the Restore candidate was not allowed on Question Time she would been shown to be the sane choice.
Equally I doubt many Makerfield voters actually watched the program so the only bit that may cross over is more confirmation that the Reform candidate isn’t very bright
The saner choice of the insane choices, perhaps. Not withstanding the polls, it does feel like we are hitting peak Farage, and a combo of a recovering Kemi and the prospect of Labour stopping their hole digging shenanigans might just knock NF back a fair deal.
I am certainly not backing Farage to lead the largest party next time.
In the wider world, and maybe related, it also feels like Trump and Putin may be heading towards their last hurrah... well we can certainly hope so,
There are many issues that Reform could campaign on but seem to concentrate on immigration. They are often tagged as racist and may be so. Or they could be very good political operators that see an hot-button issue that will never be solved over this next generation. Local news highlighting the large drop in primary school intake (10% - 13%) compared to a decade ago. This compares to Adult Social Care and SEND eating up Local Authority budgets.
So the usual reminder that Reform and Restore don't have solutions. Or if their solutions were implemented we'd (aka the young taxpayers) be in a very difficult position in terms of supporting the domestic population. Remove immigration and the line drops significantly.
Do you realise that not all immigrants are net tax contributors ?
The young taxpayers will be funding not just oldies but also many of the immigrants.
The table shows *net* immigration. Behind that is 700K of immigration on current policies of high starting salaries i.e. net contributors. Look at Kemi's parentage. Were they here for the benefits? Or even Anushka Asthana who has been mentioned before. Were her parents here for benefits? Look at the wider picture rather than the myopic one.
Its you who is being myopic by talking about individuals.
Take a look at inner cities of Birmingham or Bradford or Dewsbury or Blackburn.
If all immigrants were net contributors then these would be among the most affluent parts of the country.
The reality is they're not and they're not.
Immigrants vary in who they are and the socioeconomic effects they have.
And believing that all immigrants are net contributors is somewhere between extreme gullibility and willfull mendacity.
🚨New: Fresh Labour infighting has broken out over Darren Jones’ future
Jones met a small number of female Labour MPs amidst the anger of his Mandelson messages - but two in the wider party have called on him to go
Jones’ supporters rallied behind him last night, with one telling @SkyNews he was the victim of a ‘character assassination’ coming from rival leadership camps
An interesting one. People focus (a lot) on Labour's reputation for anti-semitism but fail to report on the misogyny. Personally, misogyny gets second billing nationally but is a far wider problem that anti-semitism.
And calling it ‘character assassination’ fits squarely in the DARVO box. He should be toast.
🚨New: Fresh Labour infighting has broken out over Darren Jones’ future
Jones met a small number of female Labour MPs amidst the anger of his Mandelson messages - but two in the wider party have called on him to go
Jones’ supporters rallied behind him last night, with one telling @SkyNews he was the victim of a ‘character assassination’ coming from rival leadership camps
An interesting one. People focus (a lot) on Labour's reputation for anti-semitism but fail to report on the misogyny. Personally, misogyny gets second billing nationally but is a far wider problem that anti-semitism.
And calling it ‘character assassination’ fits squarely in the DARVO box. He should be toast.
Darren Jones always comes across to me as a very capable aide-de-camp. The sort that every leader needs.
A fascinating article about the lost world of rock that got blown away by punk. I can't stand punk music personally, except for the more new wave stuff that is sometimes bundled up with it, like the Stranglers or Blondie. Call me old fashioned, but I like songs with a tune. I don't really like the gobby attitude associated with it either. I turned 1 in 1976 so I was a bit young for it all anyway.
People also conveniently forget Punk rocks flirtation with the Far rights and Nazi symbolism.
A very seedy underbelly to punk.
Although, nice tunes.
Yeah I was trying to keep this politics free but very much agree on the far right aspect, another reason why I don't care for punk much, apart from the paucity of tunes and the spitting.
I didn’t care for the spitting either. Vile habit.
Music wise I quite liked some of the stuff, probably more new wave. I like guitar based music.
I could listen to the Stranglers all day.
Pedant time... it's quite possible to do so, so why don't you?
🚨New: Fresh Labour infighting has broken out over Darren Jones’ future
Jones met a small number of female Labour MPs amidst the anger of his Mandelson messages - but two in the wider party have called on him to go
Jones’ supporters rallied behind him last night, with one telling @SkyNews he was the victim of a ‘character assassination’ coming from rival leadership camps
Nobody has explained why Jones's messages were not disclosed to Parliament with a rumour suggesting it was Mandelson
If it was a rival leadership camp how did they get the messages ?
A fascinating article about the lost world of rock that got blown away by punk. I can't stand punk music personally, except for the more new wave stuff that is sometimes bundled up with it, like the Stranglers or Blondie. Call me old fashioned, but I like songs with a tune. I don't really like the gobby attitude associated with it either. I turned 1 in 1976 so I was a bit young for it all anyway.
People also conveniently forget Punk rocks flirtation with the Far rights and Nazi symbolism.
A very seedy underbelly to punk.
Although, nice tunes.
Yeah I was trying to keep this politics free but very much agree on the far right aspect, another reason why I don't care for punk much, apart from the paucity of tunes and the spitting.
I didn’t care for the spitting either. Vile habit.
Music wise I quite liked some of the stuff, probably more new wave. I like guitar based music.
I could listen to the Stranglers all day.
Pedant time... it's quite possible to do so, so why don't you?
In an echo of 'woke libtards made me Nazi', Lord Mann thinks Green Party extremist candidates are to blame for the right wing press printing antisemitic cartoons. Is he as thick as he appears?
John Mann @LordJohnMann All four are antisemitic. Which is precisely why removing Green Party extremist candidates is necessary.
Comments
Andy's tip on the Tories in Aberdeen South at 2/1 is one of the best in a long time.
I'd say they have a 55-60% shot. So I've stuck £50 on.
If not, why not?
Acyn
@Acyn
·
11h
Trump: If I did meet with the new Ayatollah, I would be honored to meet him.
Doocy: Do you think because Epic Fury killed his killed his dad and his wife and his kid that he's has hard feelings?
Trump: I would say I'm not his favorite person, but with that being said, he's probably a pro—I don't know him—he's probably a professional in some circles, he has a very good reputation actually, you know, sometimes when people say bad, but a lot of people say bad about me . It's totally false, of course.
https://x.com/Acyn/status/2062633186602131504?s=20
They're still essentially a Farage vehicle witn plutocratic donors, despite all their performance and the media noise with the polls.
Remember that, unlike with artillery shells, most drones will capture a final image of their target, and many drone attacks are observed by other drones too. The Ukrainian estimates are likely to be the most accurate estimates of enemy losses in any war in history for that reason.
Military deaths are estimated at just over a quarter of total casualties, 362,000 or so. I've seen it suggested that the proportion of battlefield casualties that die is increasing, partly because drones are more accurate and lethal than artillery, and partly because drones make it so hard to evacuate battlefield casualties for medical treatment.
The Mediazona/BBC count of names of Russian war dead (from local newspaper death notices and the like) stands at 221,206 - this is very much a lower bound. They also have an estimate of ~352k dead from probate registry records.
It's a bit concerning if they took so long to notice the problems.
Also what sort of Greens? Local Politics Greens or National Politics Greens?
What has happened to this once incredible politically robust cross party debating site, and one that originally welcomed a growing cross party female perspective despite the awful misogyny of the odd poster on here which I and others had the misfortune to come under attack from because we were females from the centre right of politics.
One can't say Kemi isn't an optimist.
Kemi Badenoch voices hope for Tory first minister in Scotland after May election
https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/uk/kemi-badenoch-voices-hope-for-tory-first-minister-in-scotland-after-may-election/a/146051207.html
As for why him, why not? The assumption amongst many parties is that northerners are thick, so have a candidate to match. From a posh southern Reform perspective that lot don't know any better, just shout immigrants at them and they'll vote for anything.
The comedy is that last night highlighted the real choice here. If people want change there is a candidate who is articulate, passionate, creative and has a clear plan to change how stuff gets done. Or you have Mr women are slags.
Reform's vote has been sliding for a while nationally, the "tight" claim of this by-election now replaced by a 10pt Burnham lead, and I expect that to widen further.
For a long time the big two parties kidded themselves that they were, if not popular, then at least had a solid base of voters who supported them. They didn't. Those voters just really disliked the other lot.
Female plumbers in my experience tend to be a cut above male plumbers intellectually.
Male plumbers I have met are quite traditional blue collar men - with the normal range from civilised to knuckle-dragging. Female plumbers tend to be women who could had had what would have been thought of as "better options", but have been constrained.
For example, I knew a senior project manager running multi-hundred k IT projects back in the noughties who switched to plumbing, and my current plumber is a women who left the police force due to work flexibility being insufficient to make raising her children practical.
So the usual reminder that Reform and Restore don't have solutions. Or if their solutions were implemented we'd (aka the young taxpayers) be in a very difficult position in terms of supporting the domestic population. Remove immigration and the line drops significantly.
So its going to be a series of untrained candidates and undeveloped policies.
Farage should have been using his donated money to turn Reform into a professional outfit.
I have merely pointed out that polls and real election results do not show Badenoch making progress. Even so the potential alternatives are worse so there is no reason to change leader.
She has a bad hand, but isn't playing it well. She cannot out-Farage Farage. No-one other than Lowe seems capable of that. She needs a different strategy, and the best one is to stick to serious economic, tax and similar issues in order to look like a government in waiting. That is something Reform fail at, and where they are vulnerable.
A reminder, I voted Conservative in 2010 and was a supporter of the Coalition government, but there is no way that I would vote for the current Conservative Party.
A fascinating article about the lost world of rock that got blown away by punk.
I can't stand punk music personally, except for the more new wave stuff that is sometimes bundled up with it, like the Stranglers or Blondie. Call me old fashioned, but I like songs with a tune. I don't really like the gobby attitude associated with it either. I turned 1 in 1976 so I was a bit young for it all anyway.
Equally I doubt many Makerfield voters actually watched the program so the only bit that may cross over is more confirmation that the Reform candidate isn’t very bright
The young taxpayers will be funding not just oldies but also many of the immigrants.
I think we all tend to notice the people we disagree with more.
The dependency ratio is not purely about tax either. There is a need for workers to keep essential services and industries going like Social Care, agriculture, food processing and building even if these are often poorly paid.
At one point Doro Pesch was doing wedding singing (that must have been interesting weddings) - then metal was back and she was filling stadia again.
Social media is more 50:50 but again that depends on the platform (twitter also tended male).
After all, Nige is insistent that the money used to buy houses for cash, was *other* money.
Rather than subsidising them to do nothing while simultaneously subsidizing more immigrants to do low skilled work or to do nothing.
Alternatively invest in new technology to replace low skilled work.
This may not be the cultural zeitgeist and memory, but it was the reality. In particular Heavy Metal was massive, but so was disco and soul. Maybe not what the music press were interested in, but it sold millions of records.
My first proper gig was UFO in 1980 at Southampton Gaumont. Denim, leather and long hair everywhere.
Bit Rail Forums takes it to another level.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn4pk07npvvo
TSE is a Lib Dem in denial (no offence intended!)
The others, I'll give you.
(FWIW, I think attempts to categorise in this way show how politics has changed - TSE is indeed dry financially, I believe; Richard Tyndall is problably one to add to the right on economic issues; Stuartinromford sounds like an erstwhile Conservative, but again socially liberal. There are plenty of economic-right posters on here, but few Reform-sympathisers and non many Con-enthusiasts while they appeared focused on culture wars/Reform tribute act. Kemi's apparent switch to putting clear blue water between Con and Ref may mean that we have a few more posters who may be voting for traditional right of centre parties. I think it's fair to say that, in 2024, we were all socialists now - or at least, more voted for parties traditionally of the left)
ETA: and substantially fewer women, I think - though I don't know the genders of a lot who post here - I'd not givenit much thought, but I hadn't clocked that fitalass was female for example, even though there is perhaps a clue in the name
I've been on here a very long time and to be honest, yes, it's male dominated and by those of a certain age and my response is so what? We don't pretend to be an accurate barometer of the nation's thinking or a guide to the pulse, zeitgeist or whatever.
We are what we are.
That doesn't mean anyone posting here should feel uncomfortable or threatened - offended or patronised is different. This is the bearpit after all and some of the bears (of both genders) have claws.
As to political leanings, the site moves around depending on who is posting regularly (say 10-20 posts a day). There's a strong conservative feel not surprising given the demographics but that doesn't translate to Conservative apart from a few frequent Tory activists, ex members or those who wish the Blessed Margaret was still alive and running the country.
The "betting" element is not what it was speaking of which it's the Oaks this afternoon at Epsom. Not easy to call but I think LEGACY LINK could be the one - I'm on A LA PROCHAINE each way but she's drifting like a barge which doesn't inspire confidence.
However TOTP produced by old BBC staffers who cut their teeth on the Beverly Sisters and the Inkspots failed to capture artists who were flying up the Billboard Hot 100. This is why Joe Dolce, Don Estelle, Clive Dunn, St Winfred's choir and the Wurzels made it to the top of the charts whilst Jackson Brown and Linda Ronstadt were nowhere.
..“By the time we got into the dressing room, the Pistols had left, and so had the cash from my back pocket. So that was a really bad day: my career had gone and so had 12 quid.”..
We penalise pensioners who leave the UK by removing index linking from their pensions. So why not make the SRP fully portable after 67 (or earlier) so that dual nationals can take their cash with them and off to sunnier climes in India, Pakistan and the Caribean. Why prevent them (economically) from leaving?
Or why not rebrand the Bibby Stockholm as the Disney Stockholm and tow it around the Med.
And rather than stripping countries of the doctors and nurses, why not take the sick to the doctors. Philippines and South Africa are much more pleasant that the West Midlands.
Possibly the craziest first day score ever in a Test Match? Glad I didn’t buy Day 4 tickets!
The country is not well governed right now, has not been for some time and I don’t have any great hope that will change for a while. Burnham might help Labour reset the dial for a bit, but I am far from convinced he has the answers the country needs and my prediction is that Labour will find themselves facing the same problems in a matter of months. Reform are just depressing, and Badenoch is starting to come into her own but the Tory brand is still extremely toxic - so the jury is out on how much impact she can make. In that rather intractable situation, I’d much rather take myself away from the day-to-day.
I will keep following things from afar (and may even have the occasional lurk on here!) but I would much rather my news content is a quick check once a day than an involved debate and discussion - that’s just where I find myself happier at the moment. That may change in time, but I don’t expect to be back very soon. I genuinely wish everyone on here, on all sides of the debate, all the best - I have really enjoyed all the discussions over the years and very grateful to TSE, OGH and everyone else involved with running the site for keeping it going.
A very seedy underbelly to punk.
Although, nice tunes.
On that result though clearly more Labour voters went direct to Reform since 2022 and in 2022 the Tories got 30% under Boris so no tactical voting will make up for the Tory votes lost since then. Whereas seats last up in 2024 the Tories could still hold with tactical votes
John Mann
@LordJohnMann
All four are antisemitic. Which is precisely why removing Green Party extremist candidates is necessary.
https://x.com/LordJohnMann/status/2051951798424899869?s=20
https://conservativehome.com/2026/06/05/we-all-know-why-you-like-kemi-no-i-dont-think-you-do-so-ill-tell-you/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Newsletter for Friday 5th June 2026&utm_content=Newsletter for Friday 5th June 2026 CID_3708860879f6c182af2fe73afa08ba84&utm_source=Daily Email&utm_term=We all know why you like Kemi - No I dont think you do so Ill tell you
The last time we saw birthrates fall, councils took the opportunity to close or merge schools and sell playing fields for residential redevelopment only to be caught out by the immigration-led rebound in birth rates after 2004 leaving a scramble for temporary classrooms and extensions to existing facilties.
IF this is permanent, school place planners will be looking at future demand, capacity and suitability scenarios and we could see another round of school sell offs, closures and land made available for development.
We will presumably not be looking at a broad demographic decline but an even more accentuated structure of an ageing population and a declining work force. You are right inasmuch as investment in new technology, business process re-engineering and the like can make a difference but "the million neets" (to use the popular slang) will only have a limited impact.
Early today Ukrainian drones hit a tanker and two cargo ships in Taganrog Bay, about 30km off Mariupol coast.
#explodey
Ashton & Golborne: Labour 64%
Winstanley & Orrell: Labour 52%
Hindley & Leigh: Reform 51%
Abram & Ince: Reform 44%
Restore Britain highest in the Abram & Ince group at 14%'
https://x.com/poll_checker/status/2062649808544756061?s=20
I note that in the recent Holyrood elections Reform out polled SCon.
I would grade SCon performance in Aberdeen South on the scale
15% Grim
15-20% poor
20%-25% respectable 2nd or 3rd place
25%+ a degree of progress.
I do think SCon will keep both deposits, which would make it their best byelection performances this parliament.
Music wise I quite liked some of the stuff, probably more new wave. I like guitar based music.
The Sex Pistols with stuff like Belsen was a Gas and God Bless Martin Bormann and all the Nazis on the run.
People conveniently turn a blind eye to it as they are seen as cool.
Anyway, Good Morning, ladies and gentlemen.
I'm sure there are some of both here!
And thanks to everyone for not describing me as a Centrist Dad. I'm a Dad, for sure, indeed a Gt-GranDad, but I'm happy to be described as a Lefty!
I am certainly not backing Farage to lead the largest party next time.
In the wider world, and maybe related, it also feels like Trump and Putin may be heading towards their last hurrah... well we can certainly hope so,
That’s why the chat about only importing “net contributors” is so weak, and even more so if you consider they are crowding out young ambitious Brits who might want a good job. Much more honest (and defendable tbh) to oppose immigration in general.
https://x.com/alexrogerssky/status/2062804007098188226
🚨New: Fresh Labour infighting has broken out over Darren Jones’ future
Jones met a small number of female Labour MPs amidst the anger of his Mandelson messages - but two in the wider party have called on him to go
Jones’ supporters rallied behind him last night, with one telling @SkyNews he was the victim of a ‘character assassination’ coming from rival leadership camps
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aberdeen_Deeside_and_North_Kincardine
https://x.com/AFpost/status/2062491598567637448
Trump: “Grass has a life also. Like people, grass has a life.”
Take a look at inner cities of Birmingham or Bradford or Dewsbury or Blackburn.
If all immigrants were net contributors then these would be among the most affluent parts of the country.
The reality is they're not and they're not.
Immigrants vary in who they are and the socioeconomic effects they have.
And believing that all immigrants are net contributors is somewhere between extreme gullibility and willfull mendacity.
And calling it ‘character assassination’ fits squarely in the DARVO box. He should be toast.
something about how leaving the door to your bunker open makes it a lot less of a bunker
https://bsky.app/profile/mgerrydoyle.bsky.social/post/3mnjs23m5vs2m
If it was a rival leadership camp how did they get the messages ?