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New Makerfield poll by Survation gives Burnham a 10% lead – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 13,173
edited June 4 in General
New Makerfield poll by Survation gives Burnham a 10% lead – politicalbetting.com

The changes since the last poll is Labour up 6%, Reform down by 1%, Restore up by 1%, Lib Dems down by 3%, and the Greens down by 2%.

Read the full story here

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  • TazTaz Posts: 28,159
    First like Restore !
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,181
    Good news for Burnham and the country
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 28,783
    edited June 4
    Third
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 28,783
    edited June 4
    Fourth
  • stodgestodge Posts: 16,687
    We can group the Conservatives with the "centre left" it would seem....
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 28,783
    edited June 4
    Sixth
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,580
    California sheriff's deputy ignored Good Samaritan's request to help homeless woman, 43, who was dying in ditch and said: 'She's only a transient, don't worry about it'

    A California sheriff has been outed to his department for leaving a homeless woman dying in a ditch despite being called out on a welfare check for the 43-year-old.

    Irma Espinoza died after being discarded in a ditch, even after Good Samaritan Richard Quinones alerted the San Diego Sheriff's Office to her presence in the trench close to his home on the morning of July 29.

    The sheriff who attended the call simply drove by the ditch and did not get out of his vehicle to check on the woman, according to an independent investigation report into the incident by the Citizens' Law Enforcement Review Board (CLERB).


    https://www.dailymail.com/news/article-15874965/california-sheriff-homeless-woman-died-ditch-san-diego.html?ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490&ito=social-twitter_mailonline
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,878
    edited June 4
    That is a very good poll for Burnham and a terrible poll for Reform, even the combined Reform and Restore and Tory vote is less than Burnham's voteshare.

    Reform won 50% of the vote in the Makerfield area in the local elections so if Burnham as the face of Labour sees their vote decline by 11% then a Burnham led Labour would almost certainly retake the lead in opinion polls if he wins the by election and replaces Starmer as PM

    https://x.com/patrickkmaguire/status/2054963169487986893?s=20
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 28,783
    Ninth
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,181
    HYUFD said:

    That is a very good poll for Burnham and a terrible poll for Reform, even the combined Reform and Restore and Tory vote is less than Burnham's voteshare.

    Reform won 50% of the vote in the Makerfield area in the local elections so if Burnham as the face of Labour sees their vote decline by 11% then a Burnham led Labour would almost certainly retake the lead in opinion polls if he wins the by election and replaces Starmer as PM

    https://x.com/patrickkmaguire/status/2054963169487986893?s=20

    Very possible but beating Farage is all that matters
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,380
    Oh.

    Adding everything beginning with 'R' together and one doesn't get the Burnham score.

    Oh dear, how sad, never mind.



  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,380
    edited June 4
    Burnham now 1/33 as next leader
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,879
    Good poll for Reform. This is the high water mark for Burnham before Farage squeezes the Restore vote and he starts facing greater scrutiny as a potential PM.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,591
    Ties in with what @theakes was reporting earlier in the week which I was a little dubious about
    He had heard a 5000 majority on a decent turnout. So around this poll.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 22,874
    stodge said:

    We can group the Conservatives with the "centre left" it would seem....

    That's what a lot of the polls on things like attitudes to Russia, Trump, Musk, carbon dioxide etc show... LibLabGreen voters tend to be pretty similar, Cons voters are a bit to their right, but Reform are massively to the right of them. The big gap is Re-parties vs the Rest.

    It does show why Zia Yusuf is excreting cross policy announcements like a gerbil on drugs.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,878
    edited June 4

    Good news for Burnham and the country

    I am not a fan of his tax plans, his social care levy risks being his version of May's dementia tax if he scraps inheritance tax (now largely only paid by less than 10% of estates after Osborne exempted the family home) and imposes say a 10% levy on most estates. His land tax plans will not go down well with landowners. Burnham's camp also said he wanted to restore the 50% additional rate of income tax. Though he has some good ideas on homelessness, he would overall be a tax and spend PM.

    He is a better communicator than Starmer but as PM Burnham would probably be the most leftwing PM we have had since his fellow northener Harold Wilson, likely even slightly left of Brown
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,225
    This poll is almost too good to be true for Burnham, and would be disastrous for Farage and Reform.

    But it's only a poll, the sample is small, and constituency polls are hard. If the poll is wrong Burnham might even exceed 50%...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,591
    It's women which will win this by election.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 4,117
    Breaking: Man who is extremely popular at local/regional level likely to win election.

    People locally know the importance of this by election, so very little wasting of votes going on, by the look of it.

    (Got to say, the Reform and Green candidates being very poor are also factors).
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 5,446
    Minds becoming focused as the election draws closer.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,591
    QY. Reform candidate seems to be making the case for passion about the environment.
    Lib Dem wants to build houses.
    Not in Kansas anymore.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,225

    Good poll for Reform. This is the high water mark for Burnham before Farage squeezes the Restore vote and he starts facing greater scrutiny as a potential PM.

    A month ago there wasn't a Restore vote to squeeze. What makes you think Farage can reclaim the ground he's lost since then?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 18,476

    stodge said:

    We can group the Conservatives with the "centre left" it would seem....

    That's what a lot of the polls on things like attitudes to Russia, Trump, Musk, carbon dioxide etc show... LibLabGreen voters tend to be pretty similar, Cons voters are a bit to their right, but Reform are massively to the right of them. The big gap is Re-parties vs the Rest.

    It does show why Zia Yusuf is excreting cross policy announcements like a gerbil on drugs.
    Shorn of their right flank the Tories are looking like a sensible party of the centre right. By no means a centre left party but not part of the Trump-Putin-Musk axis of angry nihilism either.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 56,858
    Makerfield By-Election Voting Intention:

    LAB: 49% (+6)
    RFM: 39% (-1)
    RES: 8% (+1)
    GRN: 2% (-1)
    LDM: 1% (-3)
    CON: 1% (-1)

    Via @survation.bsky.social, 26 May - 1 Jun.
    Changes w/ 18-22 May.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,958
    dixiedean said:

    It's women which will win this by election.

    To elect the 20th man to lead a party that has never elected a woman!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,580
    Yesterday I spent the evening with two of my Green supporting/Starmer hating female friends.

    Both of them admitted they would vote Labour (even with Starmer) because of Farage's incitement over the Henry Nowak murder.

    It's a bit like PB's BigJohnOwls voting for Starmer.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 56,858
    Foxy said:

    Makerfield By-Election Voting Intention:

    LAB: 49% (+6)
    RFM: 39% (-1)
    RES: 8% (+1)
    GRN: 2% (-1)
    LDM: 1% (-3)
    CON: 1% (-1)

    Via @survation.bsky.social, 26 May - 1 Jun.
    Changes w/ 18-22 May.

    Probably worse than this for Reform now after the #Farageriots and #BBCQT
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,879
    A strong clip for Rob Kenyon debating immigration and housing with the Green candidate:

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/2062639985275076865
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 2,200

    stodge said:

    We can group the Conservatives with the "centre left" it would seem....

    That's what a lot of the polls on things like attitudes to Russia, Trump, Musk, carbon dioxide etc show... LibLabGreen voters tend to be pretty similar, Cons voters are a bit to their right, but Reform are massively to the right of them. The big gap is Re-parties vs the Rest.

    It does show why Zia Yusuf is excreting cross policy announcements like a gerbil on drugs.
    Shorn of their right flank the Tories are looking like a sensible party of the centre right. By no means a centre left party but not part of the Trump-Putin-Musk axis of angry nihilism either.
    1% in a high profile by election
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 3,146

    Good poll for Reform. This is the high water mark for Burnham before Farage squeezes the Restore vote and he starts facing greater scrutiny as a potential PM.

    A month ago there wasn't a Restore vote to squeeze. What makes you think Farage can reclaim the ground he's lost since then?
    Money to be made on Betfair Restore <5% if Reform can squeeze them. Otherwise only Binface to beat Moster Raving Looney or Burnham to win look bankers.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,879
    Foxy said:

    Makerfield By-Election Voting Intention:

    LAB: 49% (+6)
    RFM: 39% (-1)
    RES: 8% (+1)
    GRN: 2% (-1)
    LDM: 1% (-3)
    CON: 1% (-1)

    Via @survation.bsky.social, 26 May - 1 Jun.
    Changes w/ 18-22 May.

    Interesting clarification. Perhaps the previous constituency poll underestimated the Burnham effect:

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/2062645946853302407

    Note: Survation says comparisons with its previous poll should be treated with caution, as that survey first asked respondents about Westminster voting intention before moving on to generic party and named candidate voting intention, rather than focusing solely on the by-election
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 11,143
    edited June 4
    Restore is taking vital votes from Reform, and try as he might, Musk is going to find it very hard to take a party with so many obvious thug supporters to the mainstream.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,380

    Yesterday I spent the evening with two of my Green supporting/Starmer hating female friends.

    Both of them admitted they would vote Labour (even with Starmer) because of Farage's incitement over the Henry Nowak murder.

    It's a bit like PB's BigJohnOwls voting for Starmer.

    Farage is blowing it.

    Maybe he always wanted to. I mean being PM is like a hard day's work.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,380

    Good poll for Reform. This is the high water mark for Burnham before Farage squeezes the Restore vote and he starts facing greater scrutiny as a potential PM.

    A month ago there wasn't a Restore vote to squeeze. What makes you think Farage can reclaim the ground he's lost since then?
    As Hodges has been saying for two days straight - this is the Striesland effect. By panicking over Lowe and tacking righwards desperately Reform have made Yarmouth players.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,580
    Brixian59 said:

    stodge said:

    We can group the Conservatives with the "centre left" it would seem....

    That's what a lot of the polls on things like attitudes to Russia, Trump, Musk, carbon dioxide etc show... LibLabGreen voters tend to be pretty similar, Cons voters are a bit to their right, but Reform are massively to the right of them. The big gap is Re-parties vs the Rest.

    It does show why Zia Yusuf is excreting cross policy announcements like a gerbil on drugs.
    Shorn of their right flank the Tories are looking like a sensible party of the centre right. By no means a centre left party but not part of the Trump-Putin-Musk axis of angry nihilism either.
    1% in a high profile by election
    In 1993 Labour polled 2% and 2.7% in some very high profile by-elections, remind me how they did at the 1997 general election?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,879

    stodge said:

    We can group the Conservatives with the "centre left" it would seem....

    That's what a lot of the polls on things like attitudes to Russia, Trump, Musk, carbon dioxide etc show... LibLabGreen voters tend to be pretty similar, Cons voters are a bit to their right, but Reform are massively to the right of them. The big gap is Re-parties vs the Rest.

    It does show why Zia Yusuf is excreting cross policy announcements like a gerbil on drugs.
    Shorn of their right flank the Tories are looking like a sensible party of the centre right. By no means a centre left party but not part of the Trump-Putin-Musk axis of angry nihilism either.
    This effect is real, and the interesting thing is that it's happening despite Badenoch not changing any of the hard Brexit, culture warrior positions that supposedly put people off before.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 50,721

    Good poll for Reform. This is the high water mark for Burnham before Farage squeezes the Restore vote and he starts facing greater scrutiny as a potential PM.

    Greater scrutiny of potential PMs is hardly good news for Farage.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,380

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges

    This is what I’ve been saying over the past couple of days. These numbers have been broadly known by the main parties in Makerfield for the past 72 hours. Reflects what’s being seen in the canvass returns. Reason for Reform’s increasing hysteria. https://x.com/britainelects/status/2062641572798177483
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,879
    kinabalu said:

    Good poll for Reform. This is the high water mark for Burnham before Farage squeezes the Restore vote and he starts facing greater scrutiny as a potential PM.

    Greater scrutiny of potential PMs is hardly good news for Farage.
    That's for the next GE, not this by-election. Burnham is the only PM candidate for now.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 50,721

    Yesterday I spent the evening with two of my Green supporting/Starmer hating female friends.

    Both of them admitted they would vote Labour (even with Starmer) because of Farage's incitement over the Henry Nowak murder.

    It's a bit like PB's BigJohnOwls voting for Starmer.

    Farage is blowing it.

    Maybe he always wanted to. I mean being PM is like a hard day's work.
    There's no need for him to work hard as PM. He could just busk it and indulge his vices. Like his hero over the pond.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,671
    edited June 4
    Dopermean said:

    Good poll for Reform. This is the high water mark for Burnham before Farage squeezes the Restore vote and he starts facing greater scrutiny as a potential PM.

    A month ago there wasn't a Restore vote to squeeze. What makes you think Farage can reclaim the ground he's lost since then?
    Money to be made on Betfair Restore < 5% if Reform can squeeze them. Otherwise only Binface to beat Moster Raving Looney or Burnham to win look bankers.
    Restore and Reform hate each other.
    To what extent is that true of their supporters ?

    (nb leave a space between < and the %, otherwise you eff up the blockquotes.)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,380
    WTF is Kenyon wearing?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,591

    Foxy said:

    Makerfield By-Election Voting Intention:

    LAB: 49% (+6)
    RFM: 39% (-1)
    RES: 8% (+1)
    GRN: 2% (-1)
    LDM: 1% (-3)
    CON: 1% (-1)

    Via @survation.bsky.social, 26 May - 1 Jun.
    Changes w/ 18-22 May.

    Interesting clarification. Perhaps the previous constituency poll underestimated the Burnham effect:

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/2062645946853302407

    Note: Survation says comparisons with its previous poll should be treated with caution, as that survey first asked respondents about Westminster voting intention before moving on to generic party and named candidate voting intention, rather than focusing solely on the by-election
    Someone on here pointed that out as poor methodology at the time.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,878
    Watching the BBC QT the Reform by election candidate on first impressions looks like he might even be out of his depth being elected to the local council let alone the House of Commons. Fairly easy opponent for Burnham
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,878
    edited June 4
    Watching the BBC QT the Reform by election candidate on first impressions looks like he might even be out of his depth being elected to the local council let alone the House of Commons and already being taken to task on social media posts. Fairly easy opponent for Burnham
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,671
    Trump just living in a fantasy world now.

    Trump: If I did meet with the new Ayatollah, I would be honored to meet him.

    Doocy: Do you think because Epic Fury killed his killed his dad and his wife and his kid that he's has hard feelings?

    Trump: I would say I'm not his favorite person, but with that being said, he's probably a pro—I don't know him—he's probably a professional in some circles, he has a very good reputation actually, you know, sometimes when people say bad, but a lot of people say bad about me . It's totally false, of course.

    https://x.com/Acyn/status/2062633186602131504
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 32,342
    Kenyon absolutely torn apart and we're only 10 minutes in
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,591
    Kinda feel sorry for Kenyon.
    He'd have walked this seat at the next GE and been regarded as one of the more sensible and competent Reform MPs.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,380

    Kenyon absolutely torn apart and we're only 10 minutes in

    So far seems a lot of amateurs have been put up against the next PM of the UK.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 22,874
    HYUFD said:

    Watching the BBC QT the Reform by election candidate on first impressions looks like he might even be out of his depth being elected to the local council let alone the House of Commons. Fairly easy opponent for Burnham

    To be fair, Burnham v the rest on Question Time is like Usain Bolt turning up for a parents' race at a school sports day.

    Whatever his flaws (and he remains a deeply flawed politician), he is massively more competent and experienced than his rivals in this by-election.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 13,450
    Was the weighting by likelihood to vote self assessed or based on prior voting? If the latter it may understate Reform
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 50,721

    kinabalu said:

    Good poll for Reform. This is the high water mark for Burnham before Farage squeezes the Restore vote and he starts facing greater scrutiny as a potential PM.

    Greater scrutiny of potential PMs is hardly good news for Farage.
    That's for the next GE, not this by-election. Burnham is the only PM candidate for now.
    But it's clear that if Reform beat Burnham here it gives Farage a huge push towards number 10. The voters will know this and it's up to them how they respond.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 32,342

    Kenyon absolutely torn apart and we're only 10 minutes in

    So far seems a lot of amateurs have been put up against the next PM of the UK.
    They've clearly given him a few lines to take. He's put them across. Badly. But can't get past the reality that he has completely lost the votes of women and the people who respect women.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 23,140
    Matthhew Syed being humiliated on Newsnight by brilliant young student. Should be framed! Unfortunately I can't see her name and I've just walked in half way through

    How he makes a living out of journalism is a mystery. Syed's no better than Goodwin

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,591
    edited June 4
    Wigan women aren't to be messed with.
    It's always been a strangely matriarchal society. A place where traditionally the wives would line up at the pit head and take the miners pay in their pinnies then hand their husbands pocket money for the week.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,380

    HYUFD said:

    Watching the BBC QT the Reform by election candidate on first impressions looks like he might even be out of his depth being elected to the local council let alone the House of Commons. Fairly easy opponent for Burnham

    To be fair, Burnham v the rest on Question Time is like Usain Bolt turning up for a parents' race at a school sports day.

    Whatever his flaws (and he remains a deeply flawed politician), he is massively more competent and experienced than his rivals in this by-election.
    It says a HUGE amount about Reform that they could not find a serious contender given they won 24 council seats in the area a month ago.

    Last time they thought Goodwin. LOL. This time they thought white van man with a social media history from the flintstones era.

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,231

    WTF is Kenyon wearing?

    He always looks like complete shit. I don't want him to wear a tweed hacking jacket and a silk tie - it's OK for him to be 'the plumber does politics' but they should decide what that looks like, and get him kitted out with everything he needs to wear day to day.

    For all their money, and undoubted steps forward, Reform are very behind the punch in a lot of ways.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 32,342
    dixiedean said:

    Wigan women aren't to be messed with.
    It's always been a strangely matriarchal society. A place where traditionally the wives would line up at the pit head and take the miners pay in their pinnies then hand their husbands pocket money for the week.

    *Lancashire* wonen aren't to be messed with. Won't put up with wazzocks like Kenyon giving them abuse.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,580

    dixiedean said:

    Wigan women aren't to be messed with.
    It's always been a strangely matriarchal society. A place where traditionally the wives would line up at the pit head and take the miners pay in their pinnies then hand their husbands pocket money for the week.

    *Lancashire* wonen aren't to be messed with. Won't put up with wazzocks like Kenyon giving them abuse.
    Yorkshire women are even less to be messed with.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,591

    HYUFD said:

    Watching the BBC QT the Reform by election candidate on first impressions looks like he might even be out of his depth being elected to the local council let alone the House of Commons. Fairly easy opponent for Burnham

    To be fair, Burnham v the rest on Question Time is like Usain Bolt turning up for a parents' race at a school sports day.

    Whatever his flaws (and he remains a deeply flawed politician), he is massively more competent and experienced than his rivals in this by-election.
    Shelley Ann Fraser-Pryce.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/c70zj1xxgjzo
  • RogerRoger Posts: 23,140
    Roger said:

    Matthhew Syed being humiliated on Newsnight by brilliant young student. Should be framed! Unfortunately I can't see her name and I've just walked in half way through

    How he makes a living out of journalism is a mystery. Syed's no better than Goodwin

    *Her name is Jo Grady. A name for the future
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,580

    HYUFD said:

    Watching the BBC QT the Reform by election candidate on first impressions looks like he might even be out of his depth being elected to the local council let alone the House of Commons. Fairly easy opponent for Burnham

    To be fair, Burnham v the rest on Question Time is like Usain Bolt turning up for a parents' race at a school sports day.

    Whatever his flaws (and he remains a deeply flawed politician), he is massively more competent and experienced than his rivals in this by-election.
    A reminder Burnham's a Cambridge man.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,591

    dixiedean said:

    Wigan women aren't to be messed with.
    It's always been a strangely matriarchal society. A place where traditionally the wives would line up at the pit head and take the miners pay in their pinnies then hand their husbands pocket money for the week.

    *Lancashire* wonen aren't to be messed with. Won't put up with wazzocks like Kenyon giving them abuse.
    Yorkshire women are even less to be messed with.
    They're daft enough to associate with Yorkshire men.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,380

    HYUFD said:

    Watching the BBC QT the Reform by election candidate on first impressions looks like he might even be out of his depth being elected to the local council let alone the House of Commons. Fairly easy opponent for Burnham

    To be fair, Burnham v the rest on Question Time is like Usain Bolt turning up for a parents' race at a school sports day.

    Whatever his flaws (and he remains a deeply flawed politician), he is massively more competent and experienced than his rivals in this by-election.
    A reminder Burnham's a Cambridge man.
    It seems unfair to hold that against him when he has clearly achieved so much in life.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,181

    dixiedean said:

    Wigan women aren't to be messed with.
    It's always been a strangely matriarchal society. A place where traditionally the wives would line up at the pit head and take the miners pay in their pinnies then hand their husbands pocket money for the week.

    *Lancashire* wonen aren't to be messed with. Won't put up with wazzocks like Kenyon giving them abuse.
    My grandmother, great grandmother, great great grandmother and keep going to the 1500s were all Lancashire women and my aunt and her lineage were all Rochdale wonen - so yes
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 22,874
    edited June 4

    dixiedean said:

    Wigan women aren't to be messed with.
    It's always been a strangely matriarchal society. A place where traditionally the wives would line up at the pit head and take the miners pay in their pinnies then hand their husbands pocket money for the week.

    *Lancashire* wonen aren't to be messed with. Won't put up with wazzocks like Kenyon giving them abuse.
    As a general rule, women aren't to be messed with, which is why only the stupidest and most awful men risk it.

    (The trouble for society is that there are enough really awful men to be a problem.)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,878
    Green candidate standing while on maternity leave apparently, a poor woman's Miranda Hart
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,580
    LOL.

    I might sign a petition for the first time in my life.

    Local residents in Chicago have started a campaign to change the name of the street that Trump Tower is on to ‘Barack Hussein Obama Avenue’ and are already racking up the signatories.

    https://www.change.org/p/rename-wabash-ave-to-barack-hussein-obama-ave?recruited_by_id=10c491c0-5dce-11f1-916a-2597b8a72888&utm_source=share_petition&utm_campaign=psf_combo_share_initial&utm_medium=copylink&share_id=FzTYcLs47h
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,398
    Come the next election, the Tories being seen as a centre party will serve them very well.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,380

    WTF is Kenyon wearing?

    He always looks like complete shit. I don't want him to wear a tweed hacking jacket and a silk tie - it's OK for him to be 'the plumber does politics' but they should decide what that looks like, and get him kitted out with everything he needs to wear day to day.

    For all their money, and undoubted steps forward, Reform are very behind the punch in a lot of ways.
    He should turn up in a boiler suit and slam a massive tool box on the QT desk and pluck a wrench into the air and announce a 10% income tax for the first £10K of SME income.

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,591

    HYUFD said:

    Watching the BBC QT the Reform by election candidate on first impressions looks like he might even be out of his depth being elected to the local council let alone the House of Commons. Fairly easy opponent for Burnham

    To be fair, Burnham v the rest on Question Time is like Usain Bolt turning up for a parents' race at a school sports day.

    Whatever his flaws (and he remains a deeply flawed politician), he is massively more competent and experienced than his rivals in this by-election.
    It says a HUGE amount about Reform that they could not find a serious contender given they won 24 council seats in the area a month ago.

    Last time they thought Goodwin. LOL. This time they thought white van man with a social media history from the flintstones era.

    Tbf he was the candidate in 2024.
    He was widely regarded to have done well.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,178
    Restore spoiling things for Nigel.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,181
    Andy_JS said:

    Restore spoiling things for Nigel.

    No - he is doing that all on his own
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,231

    WTF is Kenyon wearing?

    He always looks like complete shit. I don't want him to wear a tweed hacking jacket and a silk tie - it's OK for him to be 'the plumber does politics' but they should decide what that looks like, and get him kitted out with everything he needs to wear day to day.

    For all their money, and undoubted steps forward, Reform are very behind the punch in a lot of ways.
    He should turn up in a boiler suit and slam a massive tool box on the QT desk and pluck a wrench into the air and announce a 10% income tax for the first £10K of SME income.

    Strong theming. He could offer to dino-rod the congested sewage of progressivism out of the blocked pipes of Wigan.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,380

    WTF is Kenyon wearing?

    He always looks like complete shit. I don't want him to wear a tweed hacking jacket and a silk tie - it's OK for him to be 'the plumber does politics' but they should decide what that looks like, and get him kitted out with everything he needs to wear day to day.

    For all their money, and undoubted steps forward, Reform are very behind the punch in a lot of ways.
    He should turn up in a boiler suit and slam a massive tool box on the QT desk and pluck a wrench into the air and announce a 10% income tax for the first £10K of SME income.

    Strong theming. He could offer to dino-rod the congested sewage of progressivism out of the blocked pipes of Wigan.
    Now we are talking. No more blocked u bends people!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,671
    .

    WTF is Kenyon wearing?

    He always looks like complete shit. I don't want him to wear a tweed hacking jacket and a silk tie - it's OK for him to be 'the plumber does politics' but they should decide what that looks like, and get him kitted out with everything he needs to wear day to day.

    For all their money, and undoubted steps forward, Reform are very behind the punch in a lot of ways.
    He should turn up in a boiler suit and slam a massive tool box on the QT desk and pluck a wrench into the air and announce a 10% income tax for the first £10K of SME income.

    I think it's a little unrealistic for him to aspire to No11.

    If he's like some plumbers I know he's more likely to slam a massive bill on the QT desk.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,225
    edited June 4

    HYUFD said:

    Watching the BBC QT the Reform by election candidate on first impressions looks like he might even be out of his depth being elected to the local council let alone the House of Commons. Fairly easy opponent for Burnham

    To be fair, Burnham v the rest on Question Time is like Usain Bolt turning up for a parents' race at a school sports day.

    Whatever his flaws (and he remains a deeply flawed politician), he is massively more competent and experienced than his rivals in this by-election.
    It says a HUGE amount about Reform that they could not find a serious contender given they won 24 council seats in the area a month ago.

    Last time they thought Goodwin. LOL. This time they thought white van man with a social media history from the flintstones era.
    I thought Kenyon was a much better choice of candidate than Goodwin. Maybe I was wrong.

    Perhaps worth noting that Reform won the Runcorn and Helsby by-election with a woman candidate. If they'd chosen women candidates in Gorton & Denton and in Makerfield, might they now be on course for their third by-election victory?

    I'm sure Badenoch would hate to be a beneficiary of this factor, but she's currently the only female leader of any of the major political parties (with the partial exception of Plaid Cymru whose leader at Westminster is Liz Saville-Roberts). That might work to her benefit during the next general election campaign.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,809
    That Tory core vote holding strong I see.

    Even in a no hoper they need more inherent loyalists than that.
  • Isn’t this a swing to Labour on 2024
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 32,342
    Reform want to Ban Knives Completely.

    Will make eating steak quite difficult...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,580
    One thing that has surprised me about Robert Kenyon on Question Time.

    He's turned up on time, it's only in porn that plumbers turn up on time.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,380

    Got a call from my GP today saying I've tested positive for Monkeypox and could I swing by the surgery.

    Can I flag the moderator without having to spend time with @Leon_VotedForStarmer ?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,809

    Come the next election, the Tories being seen as a centre party will serve them very well.

    I don't know that it will. Without a turnaround they'll go into the next election with years of not competing behind them, and so wavering centrists may worry the Tories are just going to support a Reform government, so backing the more centrist option of the Tories still won't be a good idea.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,809

    Reform want to Ban Knives Completely.

    Will make eating steak quite difficult...

    People do love a ban though.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,181
    kle4 said:

    That Tory core vote holding strong I see.

    Even in a no hoper they need more inherent loyalists than that.

    I would vote for Burnham in these circumstances

    Anything to beat reform
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,591

    One thing that has surprised me about Robert Kenyon on Question Time.

    He's turned up on time, it's only in porn that plumbers turn up on time.

    The plumber isn't usually the one who takes a severe shafting either.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 56,858

    Kenyon absolutely torn apart and we're only 10 minutes in

    So far seems a lot of amateurs have been put up against the next PM of the UK.
    They've clearly given him a few lines to take. He's put them across. Badly. But can't get past the reality that he has completely lost the votes of women and the people who respect women.
    Given Burnhams lead amongst women, the header poll suggests that Kenyon leads with men.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,380
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Matthhew Syed being humiliated on Newsnight by brilliant young student. Should be framed! Unfortunately I can't see her name and I've just walked in half way through

    How he makes a living out of journalism is a mystery. Syed's no better than Goodwin

    *Her name is Jo Grady. A name for the future
    She's not a student though. She is the union sec for the lecturers and HE teachers union.

    You know you are old when the union secs no longer look like Scargill or Jack Jones.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,878
    kle4 said:

    Come the next election, the Tories being seen as a centre party will serve them very well.

    I don't know that it will. Without a turnaround they'll go into the next election with years of not competing behind them, and so wavering centrists may worry the Tories are just going to support a Reform government, so backing the more centrist option of the Tories still won't be a good idea.
    They could still get anti Reform votes in Tory held seats
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 22,035
    I didn’t watch it but for what it’s worth I got a text out of the blue from my mate who is a big Reform/Brexit supporter saying that Rob Kenyon “was like a fish out of water” and that Burnham “actually performed the best”. I’m surprised to say the least.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,225
    Foxy said:

    Kenyon absolutely torn apart and we're only 10 minutes in

    So far seems a lot of amateurs have been put up against the next PM of the UK.
    They've clearly given him a few lines to take. He's put them across. Badly. But can't get past the reality that he has completely lost the votes of women and the people who respect women.
    Given Burnhams lead amongst women, the header poll suggests that Kenyon leads with men.
    British politics has had a few years of being dominated by a divide between old and young voters. Is the country now heading for the largest political divide being between men and women?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,591
    edited June 4
    Foxy said:

    Kenyon absolutely torn apart and we're only 10 minutes in

    So far seems a lot of amateurs have been put up against the next PM of the UK.
    They've clearly given him a few lines to take. He's put them across. Badly. But can't get past the reality that he has completely lost the votes of women and the people who respect women.
    Given Burnhams lead amongst women, the header poll suggests that Kenyon leads with men.
    Burnham leads 45.9 to 42.3 amongst men.
    52.7 to 34.4women.

    Edited to reflect squeeze numbers included in headline VI.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,380

    Robert Ford
    @robfordmancs

    38m

    Well, well, well…

    Looks like the stop Reform squeeze is working better than the stop Burnham squeeze….but even if Reform took every Restore vote here they’d be behind.

    Feel the Burn?

    https://x.com/robfordmancs/status/2062653767556677960
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,231
    Andy_JS said:

    Restore spoiling things for Nigel.

    I would be surprised if Restore get over 4%. A few die hards who are very online and really see Reform as controlled opposition, but most will fold quite nicely into Reform.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 22,035


    Robert Ford
    @robfordmancs

    38m

    Well, well, well…

    Looks like the stop Reform squeeze is working better than the stop Burnham squeeze….but even if Reform took every Restore vote here they’d be behind.

    Feel the Burn?

    https://x.com/robfordmancs/status/2062653767556677960

    I think the glee should be reserved until after the by election election at the very least
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,591
    kle4 said:

    That Tory core vote holding strong I see.

    Even in a no hoper they need more inherent loyalists than that.

    And having watched QT he comes across as a thoroughly decent candidate too.
    Well informed, able to speak in sentences, local, passionate and committed. Would make a good MP.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 28,783
    dixiedean said:

    Ties in with what @theakes was reporting earlier in the week which I was a little dubious about
    He had heard a 5000 majority on a decent turnout. So around this poll.

    Yup

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5564744#Comment_5564744
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