Being usurped, Nigel Farage as Henry Bolingbroke to Kemi Badenoch's Richard II –politicalbetting.com
Being usurped, Nigel Farage as Henry Bolingbroke to Kemi Badenoch's Richard II – politicalbetting.com
Who do Britons think is the main party of the right in the UK today43% say Reform (rising to 74% of 2024 Reform voters)17% say the Tories (40% of 2024 Tories)6% say Restore (rising to 12% of 2024 Reform voters)5% say the Liberal Democrats (rising to 19% of Lib Dem voters)
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..As far as I can see, he’s has a shed load of money not to *change* something, but in the hopes that he will be elected, and then do what he was always going to do once elected...
Farage's "policy aims" on that are hardly the reason for his popularity with the parts of the electorate which are keen on him to do what "he was always going to do".
Since the others are clearly wrong, it makes a certain amount of sense.
Their hopes and dreams of a better life fanned by the Blair Years (Loadsamoney) were dashed after 2008. And a man made in the image of Loadsamoney is trashing the Tim (Nice But Dim) Tories.
Is TSE suggesting Farage is planning Kemicide?
And what part do Bushy, Bagot, and the Greens play ?
"..This land of such dear souls, this dear dear land,
Dear for her reputation through the world,
Is now leased out, I die pronouncing it,
Like to a tenement or pelting farm:
England, bound in with the triumphant sea,
Whose rocky shore beats back the envious siege
Of watery Neptune, is now bound in with shame,
With inky blots and rotten parchment bonds.."
Does anyone have a link to the unedited version of the Richard Tice Bloomberg podcast?
I've been listening to the version with added fact checks.
At the end of the day, Farage has a total, including defections, of 8 MPs, Badenoch has 116. I find it hard to believe that Farage can make the case that he should win in a seat that already has a Conservative MP, when whatever his vote percentage, his parliamentary party fits in a taxi.
As a Lib Dem, we know about having large percentage votes and not gaining too many seats- as the Alliance, we got 25.4% in 1983 and got 23 seats to show for it. I understand that FPTP can throw up strange results, but as, again the Lib Dems learned and as the 2024 results show, a strong ground campaign in the right seat can still win, even if the national percentage is not that strong- the Lib Dem national vote was only 0.6% up in 2024, but a gain of 64 seats.
Farage gets the attention of sympathetic and fash-curious figures in the media, but as we see with the chaos after the local elections, the Reform ground game is weak. More to the point, there is a consistent pattern of people voting for Farage in elections they do not deem to be important- Locals, Europeans- but not at the general election.
So, even allowing for the FPTP capacity to give skewed results, I do not think that Farage will overtake Badenoch- his negatives are much worse than any other leader, and as Trump implodes, my judgment is that it will get worse for him, The Tories are incumbents in 109 more seats than "Reform", and they have a solid ground game in these seats, as well in others they lost narrowly to Labour. The last election says The Tories get 23.7%, Farage only 14.3%. Notwithstanding the current polling snapshot, there is a lot more inertia to overcome for the general election.
I would favour the Tories to win a lot more seats than Farage, and this poll may create a betting opportunity for much better odds.
I think Farage is more Falstaff in Henry V- a seemingly jolly but in fact rather dark figure- than he is Bolingbroke.
The other interesting finding from the poll is that it gives us a rough fix that maybe 10% of Reform voters would rather vote Restore if they got the choice locally?
IMO MPs should not be getting donations or contributions to office costs etc from anyone. They have a salary and expenses to run their offices. And that should be it. No donations or benefits in kind from lobby groups, charities or anyone else. These create a conflict of interest and simply listing them on a register is not sufficient to deal with the impression - and in some cases, the reality - that some MPs are bought.
And as for second jobs I set out a workable and sensible solution here - https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2021/11/12/honourable-members/
And as @Foxy has said, this should also apply to leaders of political parties.
On topic, Badenoch - whatever her other failings - is not a tyrant and Farage is certainly not a Henry IV.
It might be good if the Tories tried to position themselves as the sensible centre right and let Reform be the party for the loopy right. But that does not seem to have occurred to them or, if it has, they're not being very good at it.
That's true patriotism in action, that is.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oz31-LDW2yU
One punch is all it takes.
I remember Tory MP Dehenna Davison did some campaign work on it as her Dad was killed by a single punch from a thug.
People need to think about these things.
https://www.nottinghamshire.police.uk/news/nottinghamshire/news/news/2026/april/pub-fight-peacemaker-died-after-single-punch/
This was (imo) an individual from a family involved in organised crime. The victim had stepped in to stop a potential fight.
https://www.clactonandfrintongazette.co.uk/news/24950471.nigel-farage-hands-control-reform-uk-members/
My not-very-complimentary analogy is that the Conservative Party currently is a gutted fish, where they have thrown away the fish and kept the stinking entrails to be the rump conservative party.
I cannot see a straightforward way out of that.
What's happened to the one they arrested at the march in London for running someone down?
I'd say there's greater intent to do harm running someone down with a van than punching them
Her problem is the record of the last Conservative, and Conservative-dominated, government. And, not just the madness of Truss, and the corruption and incompetence of Boris, damaging though they were.
The longer-term, and malign, influence of George Osborne is a factor. Osborne was a brilliant tactician, but a dire strategist. Cuts to the policing, justice and defence budgets (issues that matter to right of centre voters), were bad in themselves, and destroyed the Conservatives' reputation, on issues that are supposed to be their strengths. Exempting pensioners from austerity meant that the brunt of the burden was borne by young people. In the short term, that worked to the Conservatives' advantage, by boosting pensioner support. In the long term, it turned new generations of voters against them.
And, over all, there was immigration, where the Conservatives talked tough, and were sometimes, performatively cruel, but actually allowed record numbers in.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hotelling's_law
I'm not totally sure it works here- each time the Conservatives shuffle a bit to the right, it validates a further bit of even more right-wingery.
And whilst there are plenty of sensible centre-right types despairing of not having a party going for them (especially outside the Waitrose belt, where the Lib Dems come closeish), there probably aren't enough of us for anyone to really bother.
I have no strong views on Badenoch either way (but then I think I'm unusual in having no strong views on Starmer, Farage or Polanski either, though if forced I'd probably choose Badenoch followed by Farage to have a pint with).
The Tories simply need to wait out the voters' memories. Badenoch is as good as anyone to do this.
They also lost seats 1333 in 2019 followed by 1063 in 2023.
In 2016 the total numbers of Local Council Seats for categories over 1000 (all of UK) were:
Conservative and Unionist 8622
Labour Party 6735
Liberal Democrats 1844
Independent / Other 1695
In 2026 (latest) it is:
Labour Party 4616
Conservative and Unionist 3848
Liberal Democrats 3361
Reform UK 2338
Independent / Other 1960
Green Party (E&W) 1307
Source: https://opencouncildata.co.uk/councillors2.php?y=0
That highlights the issue around being a potentially regional party. Labour have a similar challenge.
Kemi fans, please explain.
In a funny sort of way, it’s exactly the same argument Blair has made about oil and gas. I’m very much in favour of renewables and nuclear, I think it’s self-evident that we need a massive expansion and it’s the only way to get us off relying on foreign imports. It’s a decision we need to take now that WILL pay off in the future.
But to stop using our own fossil fuel reserves and to import them instead, just seems like the ends don’t justify the means. Using it will have no tangible impact on the climate.
Yes
Lab (leadership tbc)
Cons
Reform
No
Greens
LDs ?
Restore ?
Count Binface Party ?
Openreach was doing a very bad job until the threat of splitting them off appeared. Then magically they decided FTTP was doable and they started rolling it out at record breaking speed. The result is that there is still a virtual monopoly on infrastructure however the infrastructure is much better.
Perhaps there’s something to look at in this for water?
I’m not necessarily advocating this approach but why can broadband providers exist that use the same infrastructure owned by one company, but this can’t also happen for water?
Who the heck is this guy?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lvNYFtbOl5g
The first problem I have with this poll is nobody seriously uses terms like "left" and "right" any longer except as perjoratives on sites like this. It's an entirely subjective classification and everyone has their own definition.
What is "right" nowadays? To cut taxes and spending to try to bring the public finances nearer balance? To be anti-immigration or pro-mass deportation (which is called remigration to give it a friendlier name). Is it on cultural levels - to be socially liberal or conservative?
It's perfectly possible - Labour had a big section of its identity which supported this in the day - to be anti-immigration, socially conservative and yet want a lot of State intervention and control (rather like BSW in Germany).
What is "left" nowadays? We hear a load of old nonsense about lanyards and the "public sector class" as though it was a real thing and not just something somebody doesn't like or understand or value.
We can go deeper and look at the relationship between the State and the citizen - what "freedoms" do we still have? Freedom of Speech? The Freedom to give Offence or simply the Freedom to take Offence?
At its most fundamental, what power does the citizen have? A vote, which is more than exists in many countries, true. I can change the supermarket I use or the company who provides my energy or the insurance for my car or the route I take when I go to the cafe but ultimately it's not usually a choice between radically different options.
In essence, politics can be viewed that way. A Reform Government led by Nigel Farage, a Green Government led by Zack Polanski, a Conservative Government led by Kemi Badenoch, a Liberal Democrat Government led by Ed Davey - all would face the same problems as the current incumbent and none (to my eyes) has anything approaching a seriously different or convincing offerat this time.
Vote John Jackson - get Jack Johnson.
What will be the NATO response?
I said before that NATO should have destroyed the factory in Russia that made these drones when they flew them into Poland. Now people have been injured because of NATO inaction.
https://t.me/noel_reports/46975?single
The video/photo of the apartment building on fire at the link above is quite something.
Labour
Conservative
Lib Dems
That's it. I won't vote Reform now.
So Kemi if she is shrewd will do an indirect pact with Lowe, focusing the Tories on well off areas and letting Restore undercut Reform in less well off areas. Given most LD seats now were won by Cameron in 2015, there are a number of southern anti Brexit former Tories now voting LD who will consider they are still voting for a centre right party and still not voting Labour or Green
So Kemi if she is shrewd will do an indirect pact with Lowe, focusing the Tories on well off areas and letting Restore undercut Reform in less well off areas. Given most LD seats now were won by Cameron in 2015, there are a number of southern anti Brexit former Tories now voting LD who will consider they are still voting for a centre right party and still not voting Labour or Green
Makerfield 'born and bred' Reform candidate Rob Kenyon 'grew up' and went to primary school in Merseyside
'Plucky plumber' Rob Kenyon's family home and primary school were in the St Helens village of Haydock
https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/makerfield-born-bred-reform-candidate-34027795
Once again, ownership doesn't solve everything by itself. We need effective governance and independent, proactive regulation.
Water pipes, water and sewage are not comparable to copper, fibre and electrical signals.
A: Roy Or Bison
Every provider uses the same set of cables to supply your home, it is totally analogous to water.
It's probable (not certain) this was an accident and an off-course missile has strayed into Romanian territory and doubtless diplomatic channels are all over it so best to leave it to those channels.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cdepwzz23j0t
You cannot promise the voters to control immigration to the tens of thousands, deliver the opposite, and not expect the voters to react accordingly.
My thoughts exactly!!
Russia isn't worried about what NATO might do in response and so it acts with impunity. Failing to act is more dangerous in the present circumstances. It invites Russia to do more.
Although it isn't as good; looks, and feels, as if the heatwave is over. Significantly cooler today, and the unbroken sunshine has been replaced by high, sometimes grey-ish clouds.
More or less on topic, the new Reform Leader of Essex County Council has rubbished the idea of 'net zero'; we wait to see what he's actually going to with the previous council's policies.
To be fair, he's scrapped a small charge the Tories had put on library reservations.
Samuel Alito hit by new scandal as son found secretly working for Trump's Treasury: report
If you choose a cheap water supplier then they can pollute the entire system for everybody and cause harm.
It might all come down the same fibre, through the same cabinets but the data packets are separate not coalesced and you don't ingest it.
Those are key differences which means broadband is not analogous to water.
Per the NYT, Peter Thiel is planning to relocate to Argentina because he is concerned about the future of the U.S. and is no longer aligned with American leadership.
https://x.com/officialrnintel/status/2060054204215869664
Samuel Alito’s son has worked as a lawyer inside Trump’s Treasury Department since early last year. The administration hid it.
No public resume, no LinkedIn, no mention on the Treasury website, outdated bar listings. Four former officials confirmed it.
The public was never told.
Here is why that matters.
Philip Alito served as an attorney-adviser in Treasury’s general counsel office, briefed on department matters across the board, while the Supreme Court took up a case in which the Treasury Department was a named defendant.
The department never disclosed the connection in court.
Justice Alito did not recuse.
The federal recusal law is plain. A justice must step aside in any case where his impartiality might reasonably be questioned.
That is the test.
Not whether anyone can prove influence but whether a reasonable person looking at this would doubt it. A justice ruling on cases involving the very agency that employs his son fails that test on its face...
https://x.com/MikeLevin/status/2060049428434518037
Of course, if there were no Reform or Restore, Badenoch's Conservatives would be ahead but we're in the real world here and whether you like it or not, Reform has emerged as an existential challenge to the Conservatives to which, frankly, Badenoch is struggling to respond.
From being a national party and the main alternative to those not willing to vote Labour, the Conservatives now have to compete with Reform, Greens and perhaps even Restore. They are driven back to their heartlands and are becoming uncompetititive elsewhere.
The London results, good as they were in parts of the north, the west and south east, include being virtually wiped out in the south west and Havering and no longer being represented on ten of the thirty two Boroughs (not as bad as the LDs true but hardly the sign of a main opposition party in full vim and vigour).
'I grieve for the Israel I once admired so much'
https://www.thetimes.com/article/1879284a-c9d9-40f3-9b7d-9ebc24fc853d?shareToken=0b37013547f6e5ec81677ee58eed3459
Though afflicted by the sentimentalism that Hastings can be prone to, some telling points. Perhaps the most meaningful is this exchange with Amos Oz.
'Seven years later, I was having lunch in Jerusalem with the great Israeli novelist Amos Oz, and fulminating against prime minister Menachem Begin’s treatment of Palestinians in the Occupied Territories. Amos, a liberal peacenik, responded: “People like you, who have loved Israel as a European country, are doomed to disappointment. Israel is becoming a Middle Eastern country. I hope that it will never behave worse than other Middle Eastern countries. But do not expect it to behave better.”'
It wasn't bad: in fact considerably better than a normal episode.
You could argue Labour is right of centre, as its policies are largely continuation of the Sunak government and it is certainly 'conservative'.
As Israel’s behaviour has got worse, its relationship with many of its neighbours has got better. Could easily see MBS and Netanyahu being besties.
I do think there's a large addressable market for people who don't want social democracy but also despise hard right nihilism. An Osborne party in a new form. But that's not Badenoch.
The Blue Origin rocket exploded on the pad during a static fire
https://www.bbc.com/pidgin/articles/cvgz0n93jzro
Taylor–von Neumann–Sedov blast wave theory suggests a yield of 1.2kt of TNT equivalent.
I think I am right in saying that 2027 will also be the first round of local elections where Reform will have a significant number of seats to defend, which could be interesting.
Frank Wright
https://x.com/frankwrighter
https://www.frankwrighter.com/
https://youtu.be/lvNYFtbOl5g?t=774
Here:
https://x.com/frankwrighter
https://www.frankwrighter.com/
I'm not going to try and do a full thumbnail, but I note a link to "Catholic Social Teaching" on his web page, and a series of articles about the 13 Encyclicals of Pope Leo XIII. Leo XIII was Pope from 1878 to 1903. His most significant Encyclical was perhaps Rerum Novarum, which was a consideration of private and public morality, and consider capitalism, socialism, and rights of workers. I'd consider that in some ways a parallel to the work done on the evangelical side by the likes of social reformer Lord Shaftesbury.
That is interesting.
On that basis I would speculate (and it would be largely speculation) that he aligns with right wing social conservatism / more left wing on the economics. So I'd suggest that could be with the Distributionism of Hilaire Belloc / GK Chesterton.
By this I mean: regulated private enterprise, state oversight of essentials and monopolies, civil order and policing, NHS or equivalent, welfare safety net, social housing, universal state pensions, free education to 18, NATO and sound defence, rule of law, separation of powers, participation in international order, freedom of speech opinion and religion within the rule of law.
Which is why, despite the talk of 'change', competence matters much more than tinkering at the edges. At heart most people don't want much real change, and they are not interested in how the engineering of the state works, they want the social democrat consensus run really well.
This is the context in which 'left' and 'right' mean almost nothing.
The point about the Lib Dems is that they are moderate, and moderate Tories feel very at home with Ed Davey, whereas the strident and pretty extreme policies and tone of the current Tories has become a very big turn off. The more Badenoch flirts with Reform, the more likely that the Lib Dems grip on the Gail's and Waitrose belt become permanent.
They then magically announced a merger which worked perfectly as there was no overlap, brilliant! They become NTL Telewest. They then did a deal with Virgin Enterprises (?) to license the Virgin name and become "Virgin Media". I believe Virgin Enterprises purchased some of the shares.
Liberty Global then bought most of the company and kept the name.
Liberty Global then merged the company with Telefonica UK ("O2") in a 50/50 deal, becoming "Virgin Media O2". The new company is owned half by Liberty Global, half by Telefonica.
Telefonica are partially owned by the Spanish state, so you could make an argument we're subsidising their FTTP rollout.
But is this a good idea? Shared infrastructure is more efficient but denies the role of free market competition in driving innovation. That was what the boss of America's Verizon, then rolling out 5g while we had 4g as cutting edge, said to the EU some years back. What is the incentive for, say, EE to research and develop better technology if they will then be forced to share it with Vodafone?
Is our half-and-half position with competitors sharing infrastructure better or worse than publicly-owned national champions on the one hand, or unbridled free market competition on the other?