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The Abusive State – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 13,169
edited May 28 in General
The Abusive State – politicalbetting.com

Even in the best run societies or organisations, matters will go wrong. It is not this which is the problem but the response to it. This more than anything else shows its true character. Judged by this, the British state is an abuser of its citizens. Too harsh a judgment? 

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  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,589
    Welcome back
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 6,305
    edited May 28
    Hello. Does anyone do better? What and where does good look like, or is this kind of after the fact ill treatment rife in democracies everywhere (and just more widespread in the places we expect to be abusive to their peoples)?
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 28,781

    My main concern - alarm bells are ringing - is that we’re hearing the same things from Burnham’s team that we heard from Starmer’s in 2024.

    “The plan will come”.

    I won’t be lied to twice.

    Are you not including Corbyn too? Or did you not regard him as lying. more deluded?
    Corbyn lied about anti-Semitism. But that wasn’t not having a plan per se.
    I think his lies were more about the extent of the things he was going to provide - free wifi for all etc.
    I didn't doubt there was a plan to do those things, though. It wouldn’t have been delivered but I think they did have a plan.

    Burnham doesn’t seem to have a plan. Better comms will start him off well but it will only take him so far. Get Blair back in.
    If Blair was PM we would have troops in Iran and be in Trump’s pocket. Is that what you want?
    Yes, and hell no.
  • eekeek Posts: 33,905

    My main concern - alarm bells are ringing - is that we’re hearing the same things from Burnham’s team that we heard from Starmer’s in 2024.

    “The plan will come”.

    I won’t be lied to twice.

    Are you not including Corbyn too? Or did you not regard him as lying. more deluded?
    Corbyn lied about anti-Semitism. But that wasn’t not having a plan per se.
    I think his lies were more about the extent of the things he was going to provide - free wifi for all etc.
    I didn't doubt there was a plan to do those things, though. It wouldn’t have been delivered but I think they did have a plan.

    Burnham doesn’t seem to have a plan. Better comms will start him off well but it will only take him so far. Get Blair back in.
    If Blair was PM we would have troops in Iran and be in Trump’s pocket. Is that what you want?
    Yes, and hell no.
    You want our troops in Iran - what would they be doing
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,148
    DId the weather conditions in Paris just cause Sinner to lose from an almost unlosable position?
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,113
    edited May 28
    Why is OP allowed to have posts private but other people are not?
  • eekeek Posts: 33,905
    Andy_JS said:

    DId the weather conditions in Paris just cause Sinner to lose from an almost unlosable position?

    Yep but at least we have Novak Djokovic’s best and probably final chance to get a 26th Grand slam title
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,934
    Andy_JS said:

    DId the weather conditions in Paris just cause Sinner to lose from an almost unlosable position?

    Will the climate deniers repent?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,789
    Not easy to offer a pithy response but another timely reminder from Cyclefree of our deep state failures. It is one thing for mistakes to be made, it is quite another to hound those trying to expose them.

    What, if anything, can be done? Is our society any longer underpinned by a value system beyond 'getting ahead'. Maybe we get the leaders and bureaucrats we deserve.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,498
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    MattW said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    So who has made more U turns - Burnham or Jenrick ?

    Burnham's are swerves not U-turns. He's still going in the same direction.
    Leftwards or rightwards?

    I can't tell any more.
    Not leftward or rightward but sensible: This is the clear direction.

    * Introduce PR (majority of public in favour)
    * Remove red lines on EU single market and customs union (majority of public in favour)
    * Take water companies into public ownership (big majority of public in favour even if it might seem left wing)
    * Enable local authorities to build more social housing (majority of public in favour)
    I’m pretty sure Burnham is not calling to take these companies into public ownership?
    Are you? What makes you so sure? He took the buses in Manchester into public ownership and it has been a great success.

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/andy-burnham-putting-everything-line-33989167

    In this interview, Burnham says he thinks there is case for public ownership of Thames Water.
    I thought he rowed back on this because of the costs involved.
    iirc Burnham didn't take the buses back into public ownership. He put them under public control

    Happy to be corrected if I have got this wrong.

    I think you are right. It is a franchise model similar to Transport for London I think. TFL works well.
    If it were applied to Thames Water, the government would set the prices, determine investments etc but outsource the actual operations for a fixed fee to one or more suppliers. I can see that working.
    It works in the NHS where most GP practices are outsourced and many hospital services.

    I think it's a good model.

    EDIT: It looks as if Horse and I are in agreement on this.
    I think the distinction is whether the supervisory body believes that strong regulation is necessary to the extent to maintain support for it.

    There is an analogy with corporate outsourcing, and the contrast between just letting it go, or retaining enough in house expertise such that the outsourcing supplier is kept on their toes.
    Keeping it in house would be vital to retain government expertise - or you're just recreating a similar situation to the current one with the regulator.

    You can use contractors, of course, but a "franchise" is just asking for problems.
    The Post Office suggests that merely being owned by the government doesn’t automatically fix the problem

    Nor do the numerous NHS scandals.

    What is required is active regulation. And management whose first concern is not (im)plausible deniability.
    As I said, government ownership isn't a panacea.
    But if government can't run a water company then it's hard to see how it can effectively regulate either.

    Public ownership of Thames might eventually also improve the regulation of the rest of the industry, by provide a route to breaking the current cosy relationship between industry and regulator ?
    An on topic conversation!

    When the Water companies were on state ownership, investment was regularly blocked by the Treasury and waivers for breaching regulations were given instead.

    One of the reasons for privatisation was that drinking water quality rules were coming in and would require vast investment to deal with. Which actually happened.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 22,858
    The other hard question... how much is the bad behaviour of the British state just a reflection of the British people?

    I'm sure that none of us want to see the postmasters, victims of infected blood etc suffer... or we certainly don't want to think about their suffering... but compensating them is awfully expensive. We'd msotly rather have the tax cuts, thanks.

    I'm pretty sure that there's an aphorism (though I can't find it quickly by googling) about virtue when it costs you personally not being a special category of virtue; instead it's the only sort of virtue that really exists. If not, I'm claiming it. I'm also pretty sure that we get the state we collectively vote for, and in some sense deserve. Which isn't a cheering thought.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,319
    eek said:

    Andy_JS said:

    DId the weather conditions in Paris just cause Sinner to lose from an almost unlosable position?

    Yep but at least we have Novak Djokovic’s best and probably final chance to get a 26th Grand slam title
    There will be massive pressure on Djokovic now. And his draw is really difficult .
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,498

    The other hard question... how much is the bad behaviour of the British state just a reflection of the British people?

    I'm sure that none of us want to see the postmasters, victims of infected blood etc suffer... or we certainly don't want to think about their suffering... but compensating them is awfully expensive. We'd msotly rather have the tax cuts, thanks.

    I'm pretty sure that there's an aphorism (though I can't find it quickly by googling) about virtue when it costs you personally not being a special category of virtue; instead it's the only sort of virtue that really exists. If not, I'm claiming it. I'm also pretty sure that we get the state we collectively vote for, and in some sense deserve. Which isn't a cheering thought.

    All of the compensation discussed is less than the development cost of Ajax.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,735

    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/2059969901721202991

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 25% (-1)
    GRN: 19% (+2)
    CON: 18% (+1)
    LAB: 16% (-1)
    LDM: 12% (-1)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via @FindoutnowUK, 27 May.
    Changes w/ 20 May.

    Good afternoon

    You do have to wonder on recent polls that Burnham may well fail to win Makerfield
    He might lose, but remember this is FoN who have a very unusual methodology. Mind you not a million miles away from YouGov, but still...
    I want Burnham to win and he is the betting favourite

    However the polls are not the best for labour and it could be quite close

    Losing surely cannot be contemplated by labour, not least the utter chaos that would surely follow
    My wife said that she hopes Burnham loses the by -election and that Starmer should be given a chance.
    Starmer had his chance and blew it. He really is as poor as everyone on here suggests.

    Although from a comedy perspective, Burnham losing wouldn't be the end of the World.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,789

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    MattW said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    So who has made more U turns - Burnham or Jenrick ?

    Burnham's are swerves not U-turns. He's still going in the same direction.
    Leftwards or rightwards?

    I can't tell any more.
    Not leftward or rightward but sensible: This is the clear direction.

    * Introduce PR (majority of public in favour)
    * Remove red lines on EU single market and customs union (majority of public in favour)
    * Take water companies into public ownership (big majority of public in favour even if it might seem left wing)
    * Enable local authorities to build more social housing (majority of public in favour)
    I’m pretty sure Burnham is not calling to take these companies into public ownership?
    Are you? What makes you so sure? He took the buses in Manchester into public ownership and it has been a great success.

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/andy-burnham-putting-everything-line-33989167

    In this interview, Burnham says he thinks there is case for public ownership of Thames Water.
    I thought he rowed back on this because of the costs involved.
    iirc Burnham didn't take the buses back into public ownership. He put them under public control

    Happy to be corrected if I have got this wrong.

    I think you are right. It is a franchise model similar to Transport for London I think. TFL works well.
    If it were applied to Thames Water, the government would set the prices, determine investments etc but outsource the actual operations for a fixed fee to one or more suppliers. I can see that working.
    It works in the NHS where most GP practices are outsourced and many hospital services.

    I think it's a good model.

    EDIT: It looks as if Horse and I are in agreement on this.
    I think the distinction is whether the supervisory body believes that strong regulation is necessary to the extent to maintain support for it.

    There is an analogy with corporate outsourcing, and the contrast between just letting it go, or retaining enough in house expertise such that the outsourcing supplier is kept on their toes.
    Keeping it in house would be vital to retain government expertise - or you're just recreating a similar situation to the current one with the regulator.

    You can use contractors, of course, but a "franchise" is just asking for problems.
    The Post Office suggests that merely being owned by the government doesn’t automatically fix the problem

    Nor do the numerous NHS scandals.

    What is required is active regulation. And management whose first concern is not (im)plausible deniability.
    As I said, government ownership isn't a panacea.
    But if government can't run a water company then it's hard to see how it can effectively regulate either.

    Public ownership of Thames might eventually also improve the regulation of the rest of the industry, by provide a route to breaking the current cosy relationship between industry and regulator ?
    An on topic conversation!

    When the Water companies were on state ownership, investment was regularly blocked by the Treasury and waivers for breaching regulations were given instead.

    One of the reasons for privatisation was that drinking water quality rules were coming in and would require vast investment to deal with. Which actually happened.
    I'm a little puzzled. I presume the water companies weren't acting out of charity so the investment must have been paid for through higher bills I assume? Were they able to make efficiencies. Welsh Water has remained in public ownership I think.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,934
    Andy_JS said:

    We never hear individual names but I'd like to know precisely who it was who, for instance, decided that wrongly convicted prisoners would have to prove their innocence in order to get compensation.

    Chris Grayling

    https://www.thejusticegap.com/miscarriage-of-justice-victims-no-longer-lose-means-tested-benefits-if-compensated/
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,559

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    MattW said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    So who has made more U turns - Burnham or Jenrick ?

    Burnham's are swerves not U-turns. He's still going in the same direction.
    Leftwards or rightwards?

    I can't tell any more.
    Not leftward or rightward but sensible: This is the clear direction.

    * Introduce PR (majority of public in favour)
    * Remove red lines on EU single market and customs union (majority of public in favour)
    * Take water companies into public ownership (big majority of public in favour even if it might seem left wing)
    * Enable local authorities to build more social housing (majority of public in favour)
    I’m pretty sure Burnham is not calling to take these companies into public ownership?
    Are you? What makes you so sure? He took the buses in Manchester into public ownership and it has been a great success.

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/andy-burnham-putting-everything-line-33989167

    In this interview, Burnham says he thinks there is case for public ownership of Thames Water.
    I thought he rowed back on this because of the costs involved.
    iirc Burnham didn't take the buses back into public ownership. He put them under public control

    Happy to be corrected if I have got this wrong.

    I think you are right. It is a franchise model similar to Transport for London I think. TFL works well.
    If it were applied to Thames Water, the government would set the prices, determine investments etc but outsource the actual operations for a fixed fee to one or more suppliers. I can see that working.
    It works in the NHS where most GP practices are outsourced and many hospital services.

    I think it's a good model.

    EDIT: It looks as if Horse and I are in agreement on this.
    I think the distinction is whether the supervisory body believes that strong regulation is necessary to the extent to maintain support for it.

    There is an analogy with corporate outsourcing, and the contrast between just letting it go, or retaining enough in house expertise such that the outsourcing supplier is kept on their toes.
    Keeping it in house would be vital to retain government expertise - or you're just recreating a similar situation to the current one with the regulator.

    You can use contractors, of course, but a "franchise" is just asking for problems.
    The Post Office suggests that merely being owned by the government doesn’t automatically fix the problem

    Nor do the numerous NHS scandals.

    What is required is active regulation. And management whose first concern is not (im)plausible deniability.
    As I said, government ownership isn't a panacea.
    But if government can't run a water company then it's hard to see how it can effectively regulate either.

    Public ownership of Thames might eventually also improve the regulation of the rest of the industry, by provide a route to breaking the current cosy relationship between industry and regulator ?
    An on topic conversation!

    When the Water companies were on state ownership, investment was regularly blocked by the Treasury and waivers for breaching regulations were given instead.

    One of the reasons for privatisation was that drinking water quality rules were coming in and would require vast investment to deal with. Which actually happened.
    Whilst loading the companies with debt to pay dividends.
    What we are seeking is a system which falls between these two extremes.
    One in which promised investment is forthcoming whilst providing a reasonable return to shareholders which doesn't leave the company effectively bankrupt and the billpayer or taxpayer permanently on the hook.
    Surely that isn't an overly naive goal?
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 28,781
    Excellent article Cyclefree.

    Sadly the very old saying that "power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely" is completely correct - and the state wields absolute power.

    Any powers we give to the state can be abused, and given the amoral way the state acts, as described they do tend to be.

    Too often people propose granting powers to the state in the view that the best intentions will be followed, but in actual fact the most amoral and self-serving intentions end up being followed instead, which is why the state should only ever have the powers it actually needs.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,934

    Andy_JS said:

    We never hear individual names but I'd like to know precisely who it was who, for instance, decided that wrongly convicted prisoners would have to prove their innocence in order to get compensation.

    Chris Grayling

    https://www.thejusticegap.com/miscarriage-of-justice-victims-no-longer-lose-means-tested-benefits-if-compensated/
    Also worth noting the much hated "activist lefty liberal" judges had lowered the bar and ruled that a person did not need to conclusively prove their innocence to get compensation; they only had to show that new evidence thoroughly undermined the prosecution's case - in response the coalition including LDs introduced the tougher criteria.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,498

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    MattW said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    So who has made more U turns - Burnham or Jenrick ?

    Burnham's are swerves not U-turns. He's still going in the same direction.
    Leftwards or rightwards?

    I can't tell any more.
    Not leftward or rightward but sensible: This is the clear direction.

    * Introduce PR (majority of public in favour)
    * Remove red lines on EU single market and customs union (majority of public in favour)
    * Take water companies into public ownership (big majority of public in favour even if it might seem left wing)
    * Enable local authorities to build more social housing (majority of public in favour)
    I’m pretty sure Burnham is not calling to take these companies into public ownership?
    Are you? What makes you so sure? He took the buses in Manchester into public ownership and it has been a great success.

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/andy-burnham-putting-everything-line-33989167

    In this interview, Burnham says he thinks there is case for public ownership of Thames Water.
    I thought he rowed back on this because of the costs involved.
    iirc Burnham didn't take the buses back into public ownership. He put them under public control

    Happy to be corrected if I have got this wrong.

    I think you are right. It is a franchise model similar to Transport for London I think. TFL works well.
    If it were applied to Thames Water, the government would set the prices, determine investments etc but outsource the actual operations for a fixed fee to one or more suppliers. I can see that working.
    It works in the NHS where most GP practices are outsourced and many hospital services.

    I think it's a good model.

    EDIT: It looks as if Horse and I are in agreement on this.
    I think the distinction is whether the supervisory body believes that strong regulation is necessary to the extent to maintain support for it.

    There is an analogy with corporate outsourcing, and the contrast between just letting it go, or retaining enough in house expertise such that the outsourcing supplier is kept on their toes.
    Keeping it in house would be vital to retain government expertise - or you're just recreating a similar situation to the current one with the regulator.

    You can use contractors, of course, but a "franchise" is just asking for problems.
    The Post Office suggests that merely being owned by the government doesn’t automatically fix the problem

    Nor do the numerous NHS scandals.

    What is required is active regulation. And management whose first concern is not (im)plausible deniability.
    As I said, government ownership isn't a panacea.
    But if government can't run a water company then it's hard to see how it can effectively regulate either.

    Public ownership of Thames might eventually also improve the regulation of the rest of the industry, by provide a route to breaking the current cosy relationship between industry and regulator ?
    An on topic conversation!

    When the Water companies were on state ownership, investment was regularly blocked by the Treasury and waivers for breaching regulations were given instead.

    One of the reasons for privatisation was that drinking water quality rules were coming in and would require vast investment to deal with. Which actually happened.
    I'm a little puzzled. I presume the water companies weren't acting out of charity so the investment must have been paid for through higher bills I assume? Were they able to make efficiencies. Welsh Water has remained in public ownership I think.
    The politicians blocked increased prices, because they would be blamed for them.

    The Treasury blocked borrowing because this would have added to the national debt.

    The easiest compromise was to pass a law allowing the companies to ignore standards.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 28,781
    eek said:

    My main concern - alarm bells are ringing - is that we’re hearing the same things from Burnham’s team that we heard from Starmer’s in 2024.

    “The plan will come”.

    I won’t be lied to twice.

    Are you not including Corbyn too? Or did you not regard him as lying. more deluded?
    Corbyn lied about anti-Semitism. But that wasn’t not having a plan per se.
    I think his lies were more about the extent of the things he was going to provide - free wifi for all etc.
    I didn't doubt there was a plan to do those things, though. It wouldn’t have been delivered but I think they did have a plan.

    Burnham doesn’t seem to have a plan. Better comms will start him off well but it will only take him so far. Get Blair back in.
    If Blair was PM we would have troops in Iran and be in Trump’s pocket. Is that what you want?
    Yes, and hell no.
    You want our troops in Iran - what would they be doing
    Regime change.

    Support a new leader, eg Pahlavi, to take over the powers of the state and get their own army running things in Tehran and the oil fields etc (to control money) not the entire mountainous country, then let that leader take it from there.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,193
    The State has a particular and special power over its citizens and therefore should be held to the highest standards, but it is very often abusing that power to avoid being held accountable. The challenges that the current government have with accountability are well reported. Among the opposition leaders we have someone implicated in the Horizon scandal, an individual with a track record of practising deception on paying clients, someone desperately trying to hide personal donations of large sums of money that they have received and Kemi Badenoch.

    I mean, I guess Michael Lowry and the Healy-Raes aren't involved, so Britain at least has that comfort, but, well.

    Is there another option?
  • eekeek Posts: 33,905

    eek said:

    My main concern - alarm bells are ringing - is that we’re hearing the same things from Burnham’s team that we heard from Starmer’s in 2024.

    “The plan will come”.

    I won’t be lied to twice.

    Are you not including Corbyn too? Or did you not regard him as lying. more deluded?
    Corbyn lied about anti-Semitism. But that wasn’t not having a plan per se.
    I think his lies were more about the extent of the things he was going to provide - free wifi for all etc.
    I didn't doubt there was a plan to do those things, though. It wouldn’t have been delivered but I think they did have a plan.

    Burnham doesn’t seem to have a plan. Better comms will start him off well but it will only take him so far. Get Blair back in.
    If Blair was PM we would have troops in Iran and be in Trump’s pocket. Is that what you want?
    Yes, and hell no.
    You want our troops in Iran - what would they be doing
    Regime change.

    Support a new leader, eg Pahlavi, to take over the powers of the state and get their own army running things in Tehran and the oil fields etc (to control money) not the entire mountainous country, then let that leader take it from there.
    Um you clearly haven’t the first clue as how big and geographically awkward Iran is.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,498
    dixiedean said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    MattW said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    So who has made more U turns - Burnham or Jenrick ?

    Burnham's are swerves not U-turns. He's still going in the same direction.
    Leftwards or rightwards?

    I can't tell any more.
    Not leftward or rightward but sensible: This is the clear direction.

    * Introduce PR (majority of public in favour)
    * Remove red lines on EU single market and customs union (majority of public in favour)
    * Take water companies into public ownership (big majority of public in favour even if it might seem left wing)
    * Enable local authorities to build more social housing (majority of public in favour)
    I’m pretty sure Burnham is not calling to take these companies into public ownership?
    Are you? What makes you so sure? He took the buses in Manchester into public ownership and it has been a great success.

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/andy-burnham-putting-everything-line-33989167

    In this interview, Burnham says he thinks there is case for public ownership of Thames Water.
    I thought he rowed back on this because of the costs involved.
    iirc Burnham didn't take the buses back into public ownership. He put them under public control

    Happy to be corrected if I have got this wrong.

    I think you are right. It is a franchise model similar to Transport for London I think. TFL works well.
    If it were applied to Thames Water, the government would set the prices, determine investments etc but outsource the actual operations for a fixed fee to one or more suppliers. I can see that working.
    It works in the NHS where most GP practices are outsourced and many hospital services.

    I think it's a good model.

    EDIT: It looks as if Horse and I are in agreement on this.
    I think the distinction is whether the supervisory body believes that strong regulation is necessary to the extent to maintain support for it.

    There is an analogy with corporate outsourcing, and the contrast between just letting it go, or retaining enough in house expertise such that the outsourcing supplier is kept on their toes.
    Keeping it in house would be vital to retain government expertise - or you're just recreating a similar situation to the current one with the regulator.

    You can use contractors, of course, but a "franchise" is just asking for problems.
    The Post Office suggests that merely being owned by the government doesn’t automatically fix the problem

    Nor do the numerous NHS scandals.

    What is required is active regulation. And management whose first concern is not (im)plausible deniability.
    As I said, government ownership isn't a panacea.
    But if government can't run a water company then it's hard to see how it can effectively regulate either.

    Public ownership of Thames might eventually also improve the regulation of the rest of the industry, by provide a route to breaking the current cosy relationship between industry and regulator ?
    An on topic conversation!

    When the Water companies were on state ownership, investment was regularly blocked by the Treasury and waivers for breaching regulations were given instead.

    One of the reasons for privatisation was that drinking water quality rules were coming in and would require vast investment to deal with. Which actually happened.
    Whilst loading the companies with debt to pay dividends.
    What we are seeking is a system which falls between these two extremes.
    One in which promised investment is forthcoming whilst providing a reasonable return to shareholders which doesn't leave the company effectively bankrupt and the billpayer or taxpayer permanently on the hook.
    Surely that isn't an overly naive goal?
    The loading up with debt to financialise the companies came much later. The regulator fell asleep at the switch.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 5,492
    dixiedean said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    MattW said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    So who has made more U turns - Burnham or Jenrick ?

    Burnham's are swerves not U-turns. He's still going in the same direction.
    Leftwards or rightwards?

    I can't tell any more.
    Not leftward or rightward but sensible: This is the clear direction.

    * Introduce PR (majority of public in favour)
    * Remove red lines on EU single market and customs union (majority of public in favour)
    * Take water companies into public ownership (big majority of public in favour even if it might seem left wing)
    * Enable local authorities to build more social housing (majority of public in favour)
    I’m pretty sure Burnham is not calling to take these companies into public ownership?
    Are you? What makes you so sure? He took the buses in Manchester into public ownership and it has been a great success.

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/andy-burnham-putting-everything-line-33989167

    In this interview, Burnham says he thinks there is case for public ownership of Thames Water.
    I thought he rowed back on this because of the costs involved.
    iirc Burnham didn't take the buses back into public ownership. He put them under public control

    Happy to be corrected if I have got this wrong.

    I think you are right. It is a franchise model similar to Transport for London I think. TFL works well.
    If it were applied to Thames Water, the government would set the prices, determine investments etc but outsource the actual operations for a fixed fee to one or more suppliers. I can see that working.
    It works in the NHS where most GP practices are outsourced and many hospital services.

    I think it's a good model.

    EDIT: It looks as if Horse and I are in agreement on this.
    I think the distinction is whether the supervisory body believes that strong regulation is necessary to the extent to maintain support for it.

    There is an analogy with corporate outsourcing, and the contrast between just letting it go, or retaining enough in house expertise such that the outsourcing supplier is kept on their toes.
    Keeping it in house would be vital to retain government expertise - or you're just recreating a similar situation to the current one with the regulator.

    You can use contractors, of course, but a "franchise" is just asking for problems.
    The Post Office suggests that merely being owned by the government doesn’t automatically fix the problem

    Nor do the numerous NHS scandals.

    What is required is active regulation. And management whose first concern is not (im)plausible deniability.
    As I said, government ownership isn't a panacea.
    But if government can't run a water company then it's hard to see how it can effectively regulate either.
    water au
    Public ownership of Thames might eventually also improve the regulation of the rest of the industry, by provide a route to breaking the current cosy relationship between industry and regulator ?
    An on topic conversation!

    When the Water companies were on state ownership, investment was regularly blocked by the Treasury and waivers for breaching regulations were given instead.

    One of the reasons for privatisation was that drinking water quality rules were coming in and would require vast investment to deal with. Which actually happened.
    Whilst loading the companies with debt to pay dividends.
    What we are seeking is a system which falls between these two extremes.
    One in which promised investment is forthcoming whilst providing a reasonable return to shareholders which doesn't leave the company effectively bankrupt and the billpayer or taxpayer permanently on the hook.
    Surely that isn't an overly naive goal?
    I will make a case here for the Statutory Water Companies model. I used to work for one in the 1980s before Thatcher screwed them over and most got absorbed by the big water companies.
    Their dividends were limited by statute, so investors got a decent, safe, return. Also their borrowing was limited. To borrow above the limit meant going to Parliament for approval. So borrowing to build a reservoir or water treatment plant would be approved, but borrowing to just hand cash to investors would not.
    Historically, they came into being because the old Rural Districts, Urban Districts and Boroughs prioritised keeping the Rates down over investment.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 28,755
    edited May 28
    I don't know if anybody read the Unherd article about bring back Blair, but here it is

    https://unherd.com/2026/05/its-time-to-bring-back-blair/
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,834

    Excellent article Cyclefree.

    Sadly the very old saying that "power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely" is completely correct - and the state wields absolute power.

    Any powers we give to the state can be abused, and given the amoral way the state acts, as described they do tend to be.

    Too often people propose granting powers to the state in the view that the best intentions will be followed, but in actual fact the most amoral and self-serving intentions end up being followed instead, which is why the state should only ever have the powers it actually needs.

    Do you suggest we take away the power to imprison people?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 28,755

    Wow, this must be the best thread header I've ever read.

    Well done.

    Indeed, although other article writers are available:

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5500799/#Comment_5500799
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,371
    eek said:

    eek said:

    My main concern - alarm bells are ringing - is that we’re hearing the same things from Burnham’s team that we heard from Starmer’s in 2024.

    “The plan will come”.

    I won’t be lied to twice.

    Are you not including Corbyn too? Or did you not regard him as lying. more deluded?
    Corbyn lied about anti-Semitism. But that wasn’t not having a plan per se.
    I think his lies were more about the extent of the things he was going to provide - free wifi for all etc.
    I didn't doubt there was a plan to do those things, though. It wouldn’t have been delivered but I think they did have a plan.

    Burnham doesn’t seem to have a plan. Better comms will start him off well but it will only take him so far. Get Blair back in.
    If Blair was PM we would have troops in Iran and be in Trump’s pocket. Is that what you want?
    Yes, and hell no.
    You want our troops in Iran - what would they be doing
    Regime change.

    Support a new leader, eg Pahlavi, to take over the powers of the state and get their own army running things in Tehran and the oil fields etc (to control money) not the entire mountainous country, then let that leader take it from there.
    Um you clearly haven’t the first clue as how big and geographically awkward Iran is.
    Iran is three times the size of France.

    Clueless on how many Belgiums that is.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 28,755
    Good article @Cyclefree . It is good to see you still writing articles. How are you feeling?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,498

    Excellent article Cyclefree.

    Sadly the very old saying that "power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely" is completely correct - and the state wields absolute power.

    Any powers we give to the state can be abused, and given the amoral way the state acts, as described they do tend to be.

    Too often people propose granting powers to the state in the view that the best intentions will be followed, but in actual fact the most amoral and self-serving intentions end up being followed instead, which is why the state should only ever have the powers it actually needs.

    Do you suggest we take away the power to imprison people?
    Take away the power to *not* imprison people. Just because they are senior doesn’t mean they shouldn’t be prosecuted.

    After the first half dozen get life for misconduct in a public office, things will change.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 33,475
    edited May 28

    dixiedean said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    MattW said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    So who has made more U turns - Burnham or Jenrick ?

    Burnham's are swerves not U-turns. He's still going in the same direction.
    Leftwards or rightwards?

    I can't tell any more.
    Not leftward or rightward but sensible: This is the clear direction.

    * Introduce PR (majority of public in favour)
    * Remove red lines on EU single market and customs union (majority of public in favour)
    * Take water companies into public ownership (big majority of public in favour even if it might seem left wing)
    * Enable local authorities to build more social housing (majority of public in favour)
    I’m pretty sure Burnham is not calling to take these companies into public ownership?
    Are you? What makes you so sure? He took the buses in Manchester into public ownership and it has been a great success.

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/andy-burnham-putting-everything-line-33989167

    In this interview, Burnham says he thinks there is case for public ownership of Thames Water.
    I thought he rowed back on this because of the costs involved.
    iirc Burnham didn't take the buses back into public ownership. He put them under public control

    Happy to be corrected if I have got this wrong.

    I think you are right. It is a franchise model similar to Transport for London I think. TFL works well.
    If it were applied to Thames Water, the government would set the prices, determine investments etc but outsource the actual operations for a fixed fee to one or more suppliers. I can see that working.
    It works in the NHS where most GP practices are outsourced and many hospital services.

    I think it's a good model.

    EDIT: It looks as if Horse and I are in agreement on this.
    I think the distinction is whether the supervisory body believes that strong regulation is necessary to the extent to maintain support for it.

    There is an analogy with corporate outsourcing, and the contrast between just letting it go, or retaining enough in house expertise such that the outsourcing supplier is kept on their toes.
    Keeping it in house would be vital to retain government expertise - or you're just recreating a similar situation to the current one with the regulator.

    You can use contractors, of course, but a "franchise" is just asking for problems.
    The Post Office suggests that merely being owned by the government doesn’t automatically fix the problem

    Nor do the numerous NHS scandals.

    What is required is active regulation. And management whose first concern is not (im)plausible deniability.
    As I said, government ownership isn't a panacea.
    But if government can't run a water company then it's hard to see how it can effectively regulate either.
    water au
    Public ownership of Thames might eventually also improve the regulation of the rest of the industry, by provide a route to breaking the current cosy relationship between industry and regulator ?
    An on topic conversation!

    When the Water companies were on state ownership, investment was regularly blocked by the Treasury and waivers for breaching regulations were given instead.

    One of the reasons for privatisation was that drinking water quality rules were coming in and would require vast investment to deal with. Which actually happened.
    Whilst loading the companies with debt to pay dividends.
    What we are seeking is a system which falls between these two extremes.
    One in which promised investment is forthcoming whilst providing a reasonable return to shareholders which doesn't leave the company effectively bankrupt and the billpayer or taxpayer permanently on the hook.
    Surely that isn't an overly naive goal?
    I will make a case here for the Statutory Water Companies model. I used to work for one in the 1980s before Thatcher screwed them over and most got absorbed by the big water companies.
    Their dividends were limited by statute, so investors got a decent, safe, return. Also their borrowing was limited. To borrow above the limit meant going to Parliament for approval. So borrowing to build a reservoir or water treatment plant would be approved, but borrowing to just hand cash to investors would not.
    Historically, they came into being because the old Rural Districts, Urban Districts and Boroughs prioritised keeping the Rates down over investment.
    There are a lot of models.

    Does not Scotland have non-profit train companies, and Canada non-profit airports, for example?

    We still have certain community owned water companies, though I am not aware of any large ones. My favourite is near here in Youlgreave, which is regulated by the local authority not OFWAT.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Youlgrave_Waterworks

    One of our local Drs had a weekend house there, and they always claimed that because they were no. 2 on the pipe they were one of the few in the village with a power-shower. That is pushing it a bit because all you need to have one is an accumulator or a tank and pump.

    The more crucial thing is having political parties who believe in the public good as part of their value system.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,323
    Have we had another change of platform?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,934
    viewcode said:

    I don't know if anybody read the Unherd article about bring back Blair, but here it is

    https://unherd.com/2026/05/its-time-to-bring-back-blair/

    I'm still a fan of 90s and 00s Blair and think he remains impressive. However he is now a political version of the typical aging bloke who thinks the only good music was from their own era. Blair thinks the answers are just to repeat what worked back then, but the challenges and opportunities are quite different today and over the next couple of decades. He is still worth listening to but he will often be wrong nowadays.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,224

    Andy_JS said:

    We never hear individual names but I'd like to know precisely who it was who, for instance, decided that wrongly convicted prisoners would have to prove their innocence in order to get compensation.

    Chris Grayling

    https://www.thejusticegap.com/miscarriage-of-justice-victims-no-longer-lose-means-tested-benefits-if-compensated/
    Also worth noting the much hated "activist lefty liberal" judges had lowered the bar and ruled that a person did not need to conclusively prove their innocence to get compensation; they only had to show that new evidence thoroughly undermined the prosecution's case - in response the coalition including LDs introduced the tougher criteria.
    Activism's bad even if you like the outcome.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 28,781
    eek said:

    eek said:

    My main concern - alarm bells are ringing - is that we’re hearing the same things from Burnham’s team that we heard from Starmer’s in 2024.

    “The plan will come”.

    I won’t be lied to twice.

    Are you not including Corbyn too? Or did you not regard him as lying. more deluded?
    Corbyn lied about anti-Semitism. But that wasn’t not having a plan per se.
    I think his lies were more about the extent of the things he was going to provide - free wifi for all etc.
    I didn't doubt there was a plan to do those things, though. It wouldn’t have been delivered but I think they did have a plan.

    Burnham doesn’t seem to have a plan. Better comms will start him off well but it will only take him so far. Get Blair back in.
    If Blair was PM we would have troops in Iran and be in Trump’s pocket. Is that what you want?
    Yes, and hell no.
    You want our troops in Iran - what would they be doing
    Regime change.

    Support a new leader, eg Pahlavi, to take over the powers of the state and get their own army running things in Tehran and the oil fields etc (to control money) not the entire mountainous country, then let that leader take it from there.
    Um you clearly haven’t the first clue as how big and geographically awkward Iran is.
    I do, which is why I literally said do not take the entire country.

    Try reading what you respond to next time.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 28,755

    viewcode said:

    I don't know if anybody read the Unherd article about bring back Blair, but here it is

    https://unherd.com/2026/05/its-time-to-bring-back-blair/

    I'm still a fan of 90s and 00s Blair and think he remains impressive. However he is now a political version of the typical aging bloke who thinks the only good music was from their own era. Blair thinks the answers are just to repeat what worked back then, but the challenges and opportunities are quite different today and over the next couple of decades. He is still worth listening to but he will often be wrong nowadays.
    Indeed. He was a neoliberal politician who did very well in neoliberal times. But those times are gone. Just like Macmillan/Heath vs Thatcher, Blair doesn't grok that his time has passed.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 28,781

    Excellent article Cyclefree.

    Sadly the very old saying that "power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely" is completely correct - and the state wields absolute power.

    Any powers we give to the state can be abused, and given the amoral way the state acts, as described they do tend to be.

    Too often people propose granting powers to the state in the view that the best intentions will be followed, but in actual fact the most amoral and self-serving intentions end up being followed instead, which is why the state should only ever have the powers it actually needs.

    Do you suggest we take away the power to imprison people?
    The state should not have the power to imprison anyone arbitrarily, or at will, absolutely.

    Necessity involves things like a jury of your peers.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 28,755

    Andy_JS said:

    We never hear individual names but I'd like to know precisely who it was who, for instance, decided that wrongly convicted prisoners would have to prove their innocence in order to get compensation.

    Chris Grayling

    https://www.thejusticegap.com/miscarriage-of-justice-victims-no-longer-lose-means-tested-benefits-if-compensated/
    Also worth noting the much hated "activist lefty liberal" judges had lowered the bar and ruled that a person did not need to conclusively prove their innocence to get compensation; they only had to show that new evidence thoroughly undermined the prosecution's case - in response the coalition including LDs introduced the tougher criteria.
    Do you have the name of the case in which the "activist lefty liberal" judges did this please?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,589

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    MattW said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    So who has made more U turns - Burnham or Jenrick ?

    Burnham's are swerves not U-turns. He's still going in the same direction.
    Leftwards or rightwards?

    I can't tell any more.
    Not leftward or rightward but sensible: This is the clear direction.

    * Introduce PR (majority of public in favour)
    * Remove red lines on EU single market and customs union (majority of public in favour)
    * Take water companies into public ownership (big majority of public in favour even if it might seem left wing)
    * Enable local authorities to build more social housing (majority of public in favour)
    I’m pretty sure Burnham is not calling to take these companies into public ownership?
    Are you? What makes you so sure? He took the buses in Manchester into public ownership and it has been a great success.

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/andy-burnham-putting-everything-line-33989167

    In this interview, Burnham says he thinks there is case for public ownership of Thames Water.
    I thought he rowed back on this because of the costs involved.
    iirc Burnham didn't take the buses back into public ownership. He put them under public control

    Happy to be corrected if I have got this wrong.

    I think you are right. It is a franchise model similar to Transport for London I think. TFL works well.
    If it were applied to Thames Water, the government would set the prices, determine investments etc but outsource the actual operations for a fixed fee to one or more suppliers. I can see that working.
    It works in the NHS where most GP practices are outsourced and many hospital services.

    I think it's a good model.

    EDIT: It looks as if Horse and I are in agreement on this.
    I think the distinction is whether the supervisory body believes that strong regulation is necessary to the extent to maintain support for it.

    There is an analogy with corporate outsourcing, and the contrast between just letting it go, or retaining enough in house expertise such that the outsourcing supplier is kept on their toes.
    Keeping it in house would be vital to retain government expertise - or you're just recreating a similar situation to the current one with the regulator.

    You can use contractors, of course, but a "franchise" is just asking for problems.
    The Post Office suggests that merely being owned by the government doesn’t automatically fix the problem

    Nor do the numerous NHS scandals.

    What is required is active regulation. And management whose first concern is not (im)plausible deniability.
    As I said, government ownership isn't a panacea.
    But if government can't run a water company then it's hard to see how it can effectively regulate either.

    Public ownership of Thames might eventually also improve the regulation of the rest of the industry, by provide a route to breaking the current cosy relationship between industry and regulator ?
    An on topic conversation!

    When the Water companies were on state ownership, investment was regularly blocked by the Treasury and waivers for breaching regulations were given instead.

    One of the reasons for privatisation was that drinking water quality rules were coming in and would require vast investment to deal with. Which actually happened.
    Yes, but .... £80bn was then looted in dividends, most of which went overseas.
    And the system now requires.... vast investment.

    Bottom line is that either taxpayers or bill payers fund investment in the end.
    "The Treasury blocking investment", into a natural monopoly public utility, is a very, very poor reason for privatising it.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,498
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    MattW said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    So who has made more U turns - Burnham or Jenrick ?

    Burnham's are swerves not U-turns. He's still going in the same direction.
    Leftwards or rightwards?

    I can't tell any more.
    Not leftward or rightward but sensible: This is the clear direction.

    * Introduce PR (majority of public in favour)
    * Remove red lines on EU single market and customs union (majority of public in favour)
    * Take water companies into public ownership (big majority of public in favour even if it might seem left wing)
    * Enable local authorities to build more social housing (majority of public in favour)
    I’m pretty sure Burnham is not calling to take these companies into public ownership?
    Are you? What makes you so sure? He took the buses in Manchester into public ownership and it has been a great success.

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/andy-burnham-putting-everything-line-33989167

    In this interview, Burnham says he thinks there is case for public ownership of Thames Water.
    I thought he rowed back on this because of the costs involved.
    iirc Burnham didn't take the buses back into public ownership. He put them under public control

    Happy to be corrected if I have got this wrong.

    I think you are right. It is a franchise model similar to Transport for London I think. TFL works well.
    If it were applied to Thames Water, the government would set the prices, determine investments etc but outsource the actual operations for a fixed fee to one or more suppliers. I can see that working.
    It works in the NHS where most GP practices are outsourced and many hospital services.

    I think it's a good model.

    EDIT: It looks as if Horse and I are in agreement on this.
    I think the distinction is whether the supervisory body believes that strong regulation is necessary to the extent to maintain support for it.

    There is an analogy with corporate outsourcing, and the contrast between just letting it go, or retaining enough in house expertise such that the outsourcing supplier is kept on their toes.
    Keeping it in house would be vital to retain government expertise - or you're just recreating a similar situation to the current one with the regulator.

    You can use contractors, of course, but a "franchise" is just asking for problems.
    The Post Office suggests that merely being owned by the government doesn’t automatically fix the problem

    Nor do the numerous NHS scandals.

    What is required is active regulation. And management whose first concern is not (im)plausible deniability.
    As I said, government ownership isn't a panacea.
    But if government can't run a water company then it's hard to see how it can effectively regulate either.

    Public ownership of Thames might eventually also improve the regulation of the rest of the industry, by provide a route to breaking the current cosy relationship between industry and regulator ?
    An on topic conversation!

    When the Water companies were on state ownership, investment was regularly blocked by the Treasury and waivers for breaching regulations were given instead.

    One of the reasons for privatisation was that drinking water quality rules were coming in and would require vast investment to deal with. Which actually happened.
    Yes, but .... £80bn was then looted in dividends, most of which went overseas.
    And the system now requires.... vast investment.

    Bottom line is that either taxpayers or bill payers fund investment in the end.
    "The Treasury blocking investment", into a natural monopoly public utility, is a very, very poor reason for privatising it.
    The reason I bring it up, is that otherwise we create a loop.

    If we simply nationalise the water companies (as before) the politicians will set the prices, the Treasury will block investment and the same comedy will ensue.

    We need a better answer. What is it? I don’t know at this point.

    A first step would be to stop propping up those water companies. Let them go bankrupt. That, at least gets some hazard into the game.

    What then?
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 3,131
    dixiedean said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    MattW said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    So who has made more U turns - Burnham or Jenrick ?

    Burnham's are swerves not U-turns. He's still going in the same direction.
    Leftwards or rightwards?

    I can't tell any more.
    Not leftward or rightward but sensible: This is the clear direction.

    * Introduce PR (majority of public in favour)
    * Remove red lines on EU single market and customs union (majority of public in favour)
    * Take water companies into public ownership (big majority of public in favour even if it might seem left wing)
    * Enable local authorities to build more social housing (majority of public in favour)
    I’m pretty sure Burnham is not calling to take these companies into public ownership?
    Are you? What makes you so sure? He took the buses in Manchester into public ownership and it has been a great success.

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/andy-burnham-putting-everything-line-33989167

    In this interview, Burnham says he thinks there is case for public ownership of Thames Water.
    I thought he rowed back on this because of the costs involved.
    iirc Burnham didn't take the buses back into public ownership. He put them under public control

    Happy to be corrected if I have got this wrong.

    I think you are right. It is a franchise model similar to Transport for London I think. TFL works well.
    If it were applied to Thames Water, the government would set the prices, determine investments etc but outsource the actual operations for a fixed fee to one or more suppliers. I can see that working.
    It works in the NHS where most GP practices are outsourced and many hospital services.

    I think it's a good model.

    EDIT: It looks as if Horse and I are in agreement on this.
    I think the distinction is whether the supervisory body believes that strong regulation is necessary to the extent to maintain support for it.

    There is an analogy with corporate outsourcing, and the contrast between just letting it go, or retaining enough in house expertise such that the outsourcing supplier is kept on their toes.
    Keeping it in house would be vital to retain government expertise - or you're just recreating a similar situation to the current one with the regulator.

    You can use contractors, of course, but a "franchise" is just asking for problems.
    The Post Office suggests that merely being owned by the government doesn’t automatically fix the problem

    Nor do the numerous NHS scandals.

    What is required is active regulation. And management whose first concern is not (im)plausible deniability.
    As I said, government ownership isn't a panacea.
    But if government can't run a water company then it's hard to see how it can effectively regulate either.

    Public ownership of Thames might eventually also improve the regulation of the rest of the industry, by provide a route to breaking the current cosy relationship between industry and regulator ?
    An on topic conversation!

    When the Water companies were on state ownership, investment was regularly blocked by the Treasury and waivers for breaching regulations were given instead.

    One of the reasons for privatisation was that drinking water quality rules were coming in and would require vast investment to deal with. Which actually happened.
    Whilst loading the companies with debt to pay dividends.
    What we are seeking is a system which falls between these two extremes.
    One in which promised investment is forthcoming whilst providing a reasonable return to shareholders which doesn't leave the company effectively bankrupt and the billpayer or taxpayer permanently on the hook.
    Surely that isn't an overly naive goal?
    I'm perplexed as to why Thames Water hasn't been allowed to fall into special measures.
    They borrowed against the assets and future bill income, took huge dividends and have sweated the assets to a desiccated husk while gaming regulations and testing.
    I understand that it could make it harder for other water companies to borrow, but then if they have the same corporate behaviour as Thames then it should be hard, if not impossible, for them to borrow. Most of the current bondholders have bought in at a discount and are relying on the state to underwrite a potential substantial profit.
    In the current situation the state (taxpayer) is underwriting borrowing at a higher rate than the state would pay while having no effective control of the operation or sanction for underperformance.
    We're just being rinsed, and with effluent.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,934
    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    We never hear individual names but I'd like to know precisely who it was who, for instance, decided that wrongly convicted prisoners would have to prove their innocence in order to get compensation.

    Chris Grayling

    https://www.thejusticegap.com/miscarriage-of-justice-victims-no-longer-lose-means-tested-benefits-if-compensated/
    Also worth noting the much hated "activist lefty liberal" judges had lowered the bar and ruled that a person did not need to conclusively prove their innocence to get compensation; they only had to show that new evidence thoroughly undermined the prosecution's case - in response the coalition including LDs introduced the tougher criteria.
    Do you have the name of the case in which the "activist lefty liberal" judges did this please?
    https://www.petersandpeters.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/Miscarriages-of-Justice.pdf
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 20,924
    edited May 28
    deleted
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 22,858

    viewcode said:

    I don't know if anybody read the Unherd article about bring back Blair, but here it is

    https://unherd.com/2026/05/its-time-to-bring-back-blair/

    I'm still a fan of 90s and 00s Blair and think he remains impressive. However he is now a political version of the typical aging bloke who thinks the only good music was from their own era. Blair thinks the answers are just to repeat what worked back then, but the challenges and opportunities are quite different today and over the next couple of decades. He is still worth listening to but he will often be wrong nowadays.
    Except Blair isn't even doing that. Actual Blair increased taxes, spending, welfare and immigration, and he wasn't necessarily wrong to do so.

    He's more the aging rock star who has reinvented himself as a minimalist neoclassical composer and demands to be taken seriously purely on the strength of his name.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 20,924

    eek said:

    My main concern - alarm bells are ringing - is that we’re hearing the same things from Burnham’s team that we heard from Starmer’s in 2024.

    “The plan will come”.

    I won’t be lied to twice.

    Are you not including Corbyn too? Or did you not regard him as lying. more deluded?
    Corbyn lied about anti-Semitism. But that wasn’t not having a plan per se.
    I think his lies were more about the extent of the things he was going to provide - free wifi for all etc.
    I didn't doubt there was a plan to do those things, though. It wouldn’t have been delivered but I think they did have a plan.

    Burnham doesn’t seem to have a plan. Better comms will start him off well but it will only take him so far. Get Blair back in.
    If Blair was PM we would have troops in Iran and be in Trump’s pocket. Is that what you want?
    Yes, and hell no.
    You want our troops in Iran - what would they be doing
    Regime change.

    Support a new leader, eg Pahlavi, to take over the powers of the state and get their own army running things in Tehran and the oil fields etc (to control money) not the entire mountainous country, then let that leader take it from there.
    Too often people propose granting powers to the state in the view that the best intentions will be followed, but in actual fact the most amoral and self-serving intentions end up being followed instead, which is why the state should only ever have the powers it actually needs.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 37,008
    Pro_Rata said:

    Hello. Does anyone do better? What and where does good look like, or is this kind of after the fact ill treatment rife in democracies everywhere (and just more widespread in the places we expect to be abusive to their peoples)?

    I wanted to ask this too. Not that it makes the shocking examples @Cyclefree has highlighted any less shocking if every other state is just as bad or worse.

    My other question is what needs to change? Attitudes, clearly, but would further legislation help, or only make things worse?
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 3,131

    viewcode said:

    I don't know if anybody read the Unherd article about bring back Blair, but here it is

    https://unherd.com/2026/05/its-time-to-bring-back-blair/

    I'm still a fan of 90s and 00s Blair and think he remains impressive. However he is now a political version of the typical aging bloke who thinks the only good music was from their own era. Blair thinks the answers are just to repeat what worked back then, but the challenges and opportunities are quite different today and over the next couple of decades. He is still worth listening to but he will often be wrong nowadays.
    Except Blair isn't even doing that. Actual Blair increased taxes, spending, welfare and immigration, and he wasn't necessarily wrong to do so.

    He's more the aging rock star who has reinvented himself as a minimalist neoclassical composer and demands to be taken seriously purely on the strength of his name.
    Tony was Milli Vanilli, that's why he can't play the old hits
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,498
    Dopermean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    MattW said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    So who has made more U turns - Burnham or Jenrick ?

    Burnham's are swerves not U-turns. He's still going in the same direction.
    Leftwards or rightwards?

    I can't tell any more.
    Not leftward or rightward but sensible: This is the clear direction.

    * Introduce PR (majority of public in favour)
    * Remove red lines on EU single market and customs union (majority of public in favour)
    * Take water companies into public ownership (big majority of public in favour even if it might seem left wing)
    * Enable local authorities to build more social housing (majority of public in favour)
    I’m pretty sure Burnham is not calling to take these companies into public ownership?
    Are you? What makes you so sure? He took the buses in Manchester into public ownership and it has been a great success.

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/andy-burnham-putting-everything-line-33989167

    In this interview, Burnham says he thinks there is case for public ownership of Thames Water.
    I thought he rowed back on this because of the costs involved.
    iirc Burnham didn't take the buses back into public ownership. He put them under public control

    Happy to be corrected if I have got this wrong.

    I think you are right. It is a franchise model similar to Transport for London I think. TFL works well.
    If it were applied to Thames Water, the government would set the prices, determine investments etc but outsource the actual operations for a fixed fee to one or more suppliers. I can see that working.
    It works in the NHS where most GP practices are outsourced and many hospital services.

    I think it's a good model.

    EDIT: It looks as if Horse and I are in agreement on this.
    I think the distinction is whether the supervisory body believes that strong regulation is necessary to the extent to maintain support for it.

    There is an analogy with corporate outsourcing, and the contrast between just letting it go, or retaining enough in house expertise such that the outsourcing supplier is kept on their toes.
    Keeping it in house would be vital to retain government expertise - or you're just recreating a similar situation to the current one with the regulator.

    You can use contractors, of course, but a "franchise" is just asking for problems.
    The Post Office suggests that merely being owned by the government doesn’t automatically fix the problem

    Nor do the numerous NHS scandals.

    What is required is active regulation. And management whose first concern is not (im)plausible deniability.
    As I said, government ownership isn't a panacea.
    But if government can't run a water company then it's hard to see how it can effectively regulate either.

    Public ownership of Thames might eventually also improve the regulation of the rest of the industry, by provide a route to breaking the current cosy relationship between industry and regulator ?
    An on topic conversation!

    When the Water companies were on state ownership, investment was regularly blocked by the Treasury and waivers for breaching regulations were given instead.

    One of the reasons for privatisation was that drinking water quality rules were coming in and would require vast investment to deal with. Which actually happened.
    Whilst loading the companies with debt to pay dividends.
    What we are seeking is a system which falls between these two extremes.
    One in which promised investment is forthcoming whilst providing a reasonable return to shareholders which doesn't leave the company effectively bankrupt and the billpayer or taxpayer permanently on the hook.
    Surely that isn't an overly naive goal?
    I'm perplexed as to why Thames Water hasn't been allowed to fall into special measures.
    They borrowed against the assets and future bill income, took huge dividends and have sweated the assets to a desiccated husk while gaming regulations and testing.
    I understand that it could make it harder for other water companies to borrow, but then if they have the same corporate behaviour as Thames then it should be hard, if not impossible, for them to borrow. Most of the current bondholders have bought in at a discount and are relying on the state to underwrite a potential substantial profit.
    In the current situation the state (taxpayer) is underwriting borrowing at a higher rate than the state would pay while having no effective control of the operation or sanction for underperformance.
    We're just being rinsed, and with effluent.
    What should be done is to let them go down.

    But the government should back the suppliers bills.

    With a loan to reconstituted water companies. Which, since they will be relieved of their other debt, they will repay easily. A smart negotiator could get a profit out of such a loan.
  • MelonBMelonB Posts: 17,363
    edited May 28
    Off topic, I’m on day 2 of my grand rail journey across Europe and Turkey. 2 days on first the Dutch and then the German rail systems. Hook of Holland to Utrecht to Cologne, and today Cologne to Regensburg.

    I have reassuring patriotic news for you. While Dutch railways are efficient, joined up and slick, the German excuse for an intercity rail network makes our own Cross Country or Transpennine express look high speed and punctual. The reputation of DB seems well deserved.

    It’s literally dawdled all the way on what look like rural branch lines and is running an hour late. 7 hours to cover what a bog standard TGV would do in 3.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 37,008

    eek said:

    eek said:

    My main concern - alarm bells are ringing - is that we’re hearing the same things from Burnham’s team that we heard from Starmer’s in 2024.

    “The plan will come”.

    I won’t be lied to twice.

    Are you not including Corbyn too? Or did you not regard him as lying. more deluded?
    Corbyn lied about anti-Semitism. But that wasn’t not having a plan per se.
    I think his lies were more about the extent of the things he was going to provide - free wifi for all etc.
    I didn't doubt there was a plan to do those things, though. It wouldn’t have been delivered but I think they did have a plan.

    Burnham doesn’t seem to have a plan. Better comms will start him off well but it will only take him so far. Get Blair back in.
    If Blair was PM we would have troops in Iran and be in Trump’s pocket. Is that what you want?
    Yes, and hell no.
    You want our troops in Iran - what would they be doing
    Regime change.

    Support a new leader, eg Pahlavi, to take over the powers of the state and get their own army running things in Tehran and the oil fields etc (to control money) not the entire mountainous country, then let that leader take it from there.
    Um you clearly haven’t the first clue as how big and geographically awkward Iran is.
    I do, which is why I literally said do not take the entire country.

    Try reading what you respond to next time.
    Can you highlight an example where regime changew imposed by the West has worked out well in the long term? I don't say there won't be an example, I just can't think of any, whereas I can think of lots where it's gone badly.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 3,131

    Dopermean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    MattW said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    So who has made more U turns - Burnham or Jenrick ?

    Burnham's are swerves not U-turns. He's still going in the same direction.
    Leftwards or rightwards?

    I can't tell any more.
    Not leftward or rightward but sensible: This is the clear direction.

    * Introduce PR (majority of public in favour)
    * Remove red lines on EU single market and customs union (majority of public in favour)
    * Take water companies into public ownership (big majority of public in favour even if it might seem left wing)
    * Enable local authorities to build more social housing (majority of public in favour)
    I’m pretty sure Burnham is not calling to take these companies into public ownership?
    Are you? What makes you so sure? He took the buses in Manchester into public ownership and it has been a great success.

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/andy-burnham-putting-everything-line-33989167

    In this interview, Burnham says he thinks there is case for public ownership of Thames Water.
    I thought he rowed back on this because of the costs involved.
    iirc Burnham didn't take the buses back into public ownership. He put them under public control

    Happy to be corrected if I have got this wrong.

    I think you are right. It is a franchise model similar to Transport for London I think. TFL works well.
    If it were applied to Thames Water, the government would set the prices, determine investments etc but outsource the actual operations for a fixed fee to one or more suppliers. I can see that working.
    It works in the NHS where most GP practices are outsourced and many hospital services.

    I think it's a good model.

    EDIT: It looks as if Horse and I are in agreement on this.
    I think the distinction is whether the supervisory body believes that strong regulation is necessary to the extent to maintain support for it.

    There is an analogy with corporate outsourcing, and the contrast between just letting it go, or retaining enough in house expertise such that the outsourcing supplier is kept on their toes.
    Keeping it in house would be vital to retain government expertise - or you're just recreating a similar situation to the current one with the regulator.

    You can use contractors, of course, but a "franchise" is just asking for problems.
    The Post Office suggests that merely being owned by the government doesn’t automatically fix the problem

    Nor do the numerous NHS scandals.

    What is required is active regulation. And management whose first concern is not (im)plausible deniability.
    As I said, government ownership isn't a panacea.
    But if government can't run a water company then it's hard to see how it can effectively regulate either.

    Public ownership of Thames might eventually also improve the regulation of the rest of the industry, by provide a route to breaking the current cosy relationship between industry and regulator ?
    An on topic conversation!

    When the Water companies were on state ownership, investment was regularly blocked by the Treasury and waivers for breaching regulations were given instead.

    One of the reasons for privatisation was that drinking water quality rules were coming in and would require vast investment to deal with. Which actually happened.
    Whilst loading the companies with debt to pay dividends.
    What we are seeking is a system which falls between these two extremes.
    One in which promised investment is forthcoming whilst providing a reasonable return to shareholders which doesn't leave the company effectively bankrupt and the billpayer or taxpayer permanently on the hook.
    Surely that isn't an overly naive goal?
    I'm perplexed as to why Thames Water hasn't been allowed to fall into special measures.
    They borrowed against the assets and future bill income, took huge dividends and have sweated the assets to a desiccated husk while gaming regulations and testing.
    I understand that it could make it harder for other water companies to borrow, but then if they have the same corporate behaviour as Thames then it should be hard, if not impossible, for them to borrow. Most of the current bondholders have bought in at a discount and are relying on the state to underwrite a potential substantial profit.
    In the current situation the state (taxpayer) is underwriting borrowing at a higher rate than the state would pay while having no effective control of the operation or sanction for underperformance.
    We're just being rinsed, and with effluent.
    What should be done is to let them go down.

    But the government should back the suppliers bills.

    With a loan to reconstituted water companies. Which, since they will be relieved of their other debt, they will repay easily. A smart negotiator could get a profit out of such a loan.
    How are you changing the corporate behaviour, and incentive, for them not to do exactly the same thing again?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 50,671
    Two absolute scandals. Blood boils. The PO one is downright sinister. And Andrew Malkinson should be keeping every £ of his comp and then some. You only get one life and his has been ruined.

    Question though. Is it really such a slam dunk that on the reversal of a wrongful conviction compensation should *automatically* be paid regardless of context and circumstances?

    What about (say) an overturned conviction where evidence of guilt remains compelling but is later discovered to have been inadmissable on account of how it was obtained?
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,082

    eek said:

    eek said:

    My main concern - alarm bells are ringing - is that we’re hearing the same things from Burnham’s team that we heard from Starmer’s in 2024.

    “The plan will come”.

    I won’t be lied to twice.

    Are you not including Corbyn too? Or did you not regard him as lying. more deluded?
    Corbyn lied about anti-Semitism. But that wasn’t not having a plan per se.
    I think his lies were more about the extent of the things he was going to provide - free wifi for all etc.
    I didn't doubt there was a plan to do those things, though. It wouldn’t have been delivered but I think they did have a plan.

    Burnham doesn’t seem to have a plan. Better comms will start him off well but it will only take him so far. Get Blair back in.
    If Blair was PM we would have troops in Iran and be in Trump’s pocket. Is that what you want?
    Yes, and hell no.
    You want our troops in Iran - what would they be doing
    Regime change.

    Support a new leader, eg Pahlavi, to take over the powers of the state and get their own army running things in Tehran and the oil fields etc (to control money) not the entire mountainous country, then let that leader take it from there.
    Um you clearly haven’t the first clue as how big and geographically awkward Iran is.
    I do, which is why I literally said do not take the entire country.

    Try reading what you respond to next time.
    Can you highlight an example where regime changew imposed by the West has worked out well in the long term? I don't say there won't be an example, I just can't think of any, whereas I can think of lots where it's gone badly.
    Like socialism, it will always be different the next time.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,589
    Another good header from Cyclefree, which along with the majority of PBers (and probably the rest of the public, too) I'm in sympathy with.

    Two comments here - while she is right to condemn the "cheeseparing' when it comes to compensation, the figures government pays out in compensation every year are quite significant. It's difficult to get a total figure, as government doesn't publish one, but it's likely well over £5bn excluding exceptional cases like the blood, and Post Office scandals.
    I'm not sure what conclusion to draw from that, other than just doing stuff better would save us an awful lot of money.

    Secondly, it seems to me that there's little reason we shouldn't pick out the most senior figures in the PO scandal who are most clearly likely to have been in breach of the law, and save years of investigation by concentrating on investigating and prosecuting them first.
    That ought to be doable with existing resources.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 37,008
    Cyclefree said:



    viewcode said:

    Good article @Cyclefree . It is good to see you still writing articles. How are you feeling?

    It's been a tough few months this year, frankly. Hip and leg pain which has made mobility difficult and which no-one seems to know the cause of. Going for a walk is slower and more painful than I would like and that, coupled with learning for the first time that the cancer is in my lungs as well has rather depressed me. And I have had two bad falls - which is also a pain.

    OTOH it has accelerated my garden creation with some mesmeringly beautiful and high stone raised beds near completion, the Gertrude Jekyll roses are doing brilliantly, the garden room - designed by me (afternoon tea below plus roses) - is finished, my book proposal is coming along well, am doing lots of other writing and my humour has become blacker than ever. Also reading lots of great books. Plus today I bought two rather nice paintings by a local and very good artist, Jim Billsborough. There is an exhibition this weekend of his work at the local church which was sketched by Turner.

    Oh - and I have still written vastly more headers than you! 295 in fact.

    PS Thames Water are utter scumbags.
    Great header and - I'm loving your garden pictures.

    We have a new garden built from scratch following our self-build. It's looking a bit stark at present as we had to put in quite a bit of hard landscaping* for wheelchair access but we now have some plants in and our first flowers out, including Nye Bevan - which was a must for lefties like us:


  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,589
    edited May 28

    eek said:

    eek said:

    My main concern - alarm bells are ringing - is that we’re hearing the same things from Burnham’s team that we heard from Starmer’s in 2024.

    “The plan will come”.

    I won’t be lied to twice.

    Are you not including Corbyn too? Or did you not regard him as lying. more deluded?
    Corbyn lied about anti-Semitism. But that wasn’t not having a plan per se.
    I think his lies were more about the extent of the things he was going to provide - free wifi for all etc.
    I didn't doubt there was a plan to do those things, though. It wouldn’t have been delivered but I think they did have a plan.

    Burnham doesn’t seem to have a plan. Better comms will start him off well but it will only take him so far. Get Blair back in.
    If Blair was PM we would have troops in Iran and be in Trump’s pocket. Is that what you want?
    Yes, and hell no.
    You want our troops in Iran - what would they be doing
    Regime change.

    Support a new leader, eg Pahlavi, to take over the powers of the state and get their own army running things in Tehran and the oil fields etc (to control money) not the entire mountainous country, then let that leader take it from there.
    Um you clearly haven’t the first clue as how big and geographically awkward Iran is.
    I do, which is why I literally said do not take the entire country.

    Try reading what you respond to next time.
    Can you highlight an example where regime changew imposed by the West has worked out well in the long term? I don't say there won't be an example, I just can't think of any, whereas I can think of lots where it's gone badly.
    Japan and West Germany, post WWII.

    The cost to get to that point, though, was rather large.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 37,008
    Taz said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    My main concern - alarm bells are ringing - is that we’re hearing the same things from Burnham’s team that we heard from Starmer’s in 2024.

    “The plan will come”.

    I won’t be lied to twice.

    Are you not including Corbyn too? Or did you not regard him as lying. more deluded?
    Corbyn lied about anti-Semitism. But that wasn’t not having a plan per se.
    I think his lies were more about the extent of the things he was going to provide - free wifi for all etc.
    I didn't doubt there was a plan to do those things, though. It wouldn’t have been delivered but I think they did have a plan.

    Burnham doesn’t seem to have a plan. Better comms will start him off well but it will only take him so far. Get Blair back in.
    If Blair was PM we would have troops in Iran and be in Trump’s pocket. Is that what you want?
    Yes, and hell no.
    You want our troops in Iran - what would they be doing
    Regime change.

    Support a new leader, eg Pahlavi, to take over the powers of the state and get their own army running things in Tehran and the oil fields etc (to control money) not the entire mountainous country, then let that leader take it from there.
    Um you clearly haven’t the first clue as how big and geographically awkward Iran is.
    I do, which is why I literally said do not take the entire country.

    Try reading what you respond to next time.
    Can you highlight an example where regime changew imposed by the West has worked out well in the long term? I don't say there won't be an example, I just can't think of any, whereas I can think of lots where it's gone badly.
    Like socialism, it will always be different the next time.
    Lol! ...unlike Neoliberalism which is always the same old failure.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,833
    MattW said:

    dixiedean said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    MattW said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    So who has made more U turns - Burnham or Jenrick ?

    Burnham's are swerves not U-turns. He's still going in the same direction.
    Leftwards or rightwards?

    I can't tell any more.
    Not leftward or rightward but sensible: This is the clear direction.

    * Introduce PR (majority of public in favour)
    * Remove red lines on EU single market and customs union (majority of public in favour)
    * Take water companies into public ownership (big majority of public in favour even if it might seem left wing)
    * Enable local authorities to build more social housing (majority of public in favour)
    I’m pretty sure Burnham is not calling to take these companies into public ownership?
    Are you? What makes you so sure? He took the buses in Manchester into public ownership and it has been a great success.

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/andy-burnham-putting-everything-line-33989167

    In this interview, Burnham says he thinks there is case for public ownership of Thames Water.
    I thought he rowed back on this because of the costs involved.
    iirc Burnham didn't take the buses back into public ownership. He put them under public control

    Happy to be corrected if I have got this wrong.

    I think you are right. It is a franchise model similar to Transport for London I think. TFL works well.
    If it were applied to Thames Water, the government would set the prices, determine investments etc but outsource the actual operations for a fixed fee to one or more suppliers. I can see that working.
    It works in the NHS where most GP practices are outsourced and many hospital services.

    I think it's a good model.

    EDIT: It looks as if Horse and I are in agreement on this.
    I think the distinction is whether the supervisory body believes that strong regulation is necessary to the extent to maintain support for it.

    There is an analogy with corporate outsourcing, and the contrast between just letting it go, or retaining enough in house expertise such that the outsourcing supplier is kept on their toes.
    Keeping it in house would be vital to retain government expertise - or you're just recreating a similar situation to the current one with the regulator.

    You can use contractors, of course, but a "franchise" is just asking for problems.
    The Post Office suggests that merely being owned by the government doesn’t automatically fix the problem

    Nor do the numerous NHS scandals.

    What is required is active regulation. And management whose first concern is not (im)plausible deniability.
    As I said, government ownership isn't a panacea.
    But if government can't run a water company then it's hard to see how it can effectively regulate either.
    water au
    Public ownership of Thames might eventually also improve the regulation of the rest of the industry, by provide a route to breaking the current cosy relationship between industry and regulator ?
    An on topic conversation!

    When the Water companies were on state ownership, investment was regularly blocked by the Treasury and waivers for breaching regulations were given instead.

    One of the reasons for privatisation was that drinking water quality rules were coming in and would require vast investment to deal with. Which actually happened.
    Whilst loading the companies with debt to pay dividends.
    What we are seeking is a system which falls between these two extremes.
    One in which promised investment is forthcoming whilst providing a reasonable return to shareholders which doesn't leave the company effectively bankrupt and the billpayer or taxpayer permanently on the hook.
    Surely that isn't an overly naive goal?
    I will make a case here for the Statutory Water Companies model. I used to work for one in the 1980s before Thatcher screwed them over and most got absorbed by the big water companies.
    Their dividends were limited by statute, so investors got a decent, safe, return. Also their borrowing was limited. To borrow above the limit meant going to Parliament for approval. So borrowing to build a reservoir or water treatment plant would be approved, but borrowing to just hand cash to investors would not.
    Historically, they came into being because the old Rural Districts, Urban Districts and Boroughs prioritised keeping the Rates down over investment.
    There are a lot of models.

    Does not Scotland have non-profit train companies, and Canada non-profit airports, for example?

    We still have certain community owned water companies, though I am not aware of any large ones. My favourite is near here in Youlgreave, which is regulated by the local authority not OFWAT.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Youlgrave_Waterworks

    One of our local Drs had a weekend house there, and they always claimed that because they were no. 2 on the pipe they were one of the few in the village with a power-shower. That is pushing it a bit because all you need to have one is an accumulator or a tank and pump.

    The more crucial thing is having political parties who believe in the public good as part of their value system.
    Most airports in the US are still under state control I believe.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 33,475

    eek said:

    eek said:

    My main concern - alarm bells are ringing - is that we’re hearing the same things from Burnham’s team that we heard from Starmer’s in 2024.

    “The plan will come”.

    I won’t be lied to twice.

    Are you not including Corbyn too? Or did you not regard him as lying. more deluded?
    Corbyn lied about anti-Semitism. But that wasn’t not having a plan per se.
    I think his lies were more about the extent of the things he was going to provide - free wifi for all etc.
    I didn't doubt there was a plan to do those things, though. It wouldn’t have been delivered but I think they did have a plan.

    Burnham doesn’t seem to have a plan. Better comms will start him off well but it will only take him so far. Get Blair back in.
    If Blair was PM we would have troops in Iran and be in Trump’s pocket. Is that what you want?
    Yes, and hell no.
    You want our troops in Iran - what would they be doing
    Regime change.

    Support a new leader, eg Pahlavi, to take over the powers of the state and get their own army running things in Tehran and the oil fields etc (to control money) not the entire mountainous country, then let that leader take it from there.
    Um you clearly haven’t the first clue as how big and geographically awkward Iran is.
    I do, which is why I literally said do not take the entire country.

    Try reading what you respond to next time.
    Can you highlight an example where regime changew imposed by the West has worked out well in the long term? I don't say there won't be an example, I just can't think of any, whereas I can think of lots where it's gone badly.
    Japan, Germany !!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,371
    Nigelb said:

    Another good header from Cyclefree, which along with the majority of PBers (and probably the rest of the public, too) I'm in sympathy with.

    Two comments here - while she is right to condemn the "cheeseparing' when it comes to compensation, the figures government pays out in compensation every year are quite significant. It's difficult to get a total figure, as government doesn't publish one, but it's likely well over £5bn excluding exceptional cases like the blood, and Post Office scandals.
    I'm not sure what conclusion to draw from that, other than just doing stuff better would save us an awful lot of money.

    Secondly, it seems to me that there's little reason we shouldn't pick out the most senior figures in the PO scandal who are most clearly likely to have been in breach of the law, and save years of investigation by concentrating on investigating and prosecuting them first.
    That ought to be doable with existing resources.

    When government fucks up, the money should be there to right that (invariably) egregious wrong.

    No ifs, no buts. Imagine you or a loved one on the end of that "cheeseparing". Yep, we'd both be incandescent.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 37,008
    edited May 28
    Nigelb said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    My main concern - alarm bells are ringing - is that we’re hearing the same things from Burnham’s team that we heard from Starmer’s in 2024.

    “The plan will come”.

    I won’t be lied to twice.

    Are you not including Corbyn too? Or did you not regard him as lying. more deluded?
    Corbyn lied about anti-Semitism. But that wasn’t not having a plan per se.
    I think his lies were more about the extent of the things he was going to provide - free wifi for all etc.
    I didn't doubt there was a plan to do those things, though. It wouldn’t have been delivered but I think they did have a plan.

    Burnham doesn’t seem to have a plan. Better comms will start him off well but it will only take him so far. Get Blair back in.
    If Blair was PM we would have troops in Iran and be in Trump’s pocket. Is that what you want?
    Yes, and hell no.
    You want our troops in Iran - what would they be doing
    Regime change.

    Support a new leader, eg Pahlavi, to take over the powers of the state and get their own army running things in Tehran and the oil fields etc (to control money) not the entire mountainous country, then let that leader take it from there.
    Um you clearly haven’t the first clue as how big and geographically awkward Iran is.
    I do, which is why I literally said do not take the entire country.

    Try reading what you respond to next time.
    Can you highlight an example where regime changew imposed by the West has worked out well in the long term? I don't say there won't be an example, I just can't think of any, whereas I can think of lots where it's gone badly.
    Japan and West Germany, post WWII.

    The cost to get to that point, though, was rather large.
    Yes, well done Gemini ;-)

    I think those two examples were rather the inevitable consequences of an existential fight thankfully won by the Allies.

    (@MattW too)
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,224
    CatMan said:

    MattW said:

    dixiedean said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    MattW said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    So who has made more U turns - Burnham or Jenrick ?

    Burnham's are swerves not U-turns. He's still going in the same direction.
    Leftwards or rightwards?

    I can't tell any more.
    Not leftward or rightward but sensible: This is the clear direction.

    * Introduce PR (majority of public in favour)
    * Remove red lines on EU single market and customs union (majority of public in favour)
    * Take water companies into public ownership (big majority of public in favour even if it might seem left wing)
    * Enable local authorities to build more social housing (majority of public in favour)
    I’m pretty sure Burnham is not calling to take these companies into public ownership?
    Are you? What makes you so sure? He took the buses in Manchester into public ownership and it has been a great success.

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/andy-burnham-putting-everything-line-33989167

    In this interview, Burnham says he thinks there is case for public ownership of Thames Water.
    I thought he rowed back on this because of the costs involved.
    iirc Burnham didn't take the buses back into public ownership. He put them under public control

    Happy to be corrected if I have got this wrong.

    I think you are right. It is a franchise model similar to Transport for London I think. TFL works well.
    If it were applied to Thames Water, the government would set the prices, determine investments etc but outsource the actual operations for a fixed fee to one or more suppliers. I can see that working.
    It works in the NHS where most GP practices are outsourced and many hospital services.

    I think it's a good model.

    EDIT: It looks as if Horse and I are in agreement on this.
    I think the distinction is whether the supervisory body believes that strong regulation is necessary to the extent to maintain support for it.

    There is an analogy with corporate outsourcing, and the contrast between just letting it go, or retaining enough in house expertise such that the outsourcing supplier is kept on their toes.
    Keeping it in house would be vital to retain government expertise - or you're just recreating a similar situation to the current one with the regulator.

    You can use contractors, of course, but a "franchise" is just asking for problems.
    The Post Office suggests that merely being owned by the government doesn’t automatically fix the problem

    Nor do the numerous NHS scandals.

    What is required is active regulation. And management whose first concern is not (im)plausible deniability.
    As I said, government ownership isn't a panacea.
    But if government can't run a water company then it's hard to see how it can effectively regulate either.
    water au
    Public ownership of Thames might eventually also improve the regulation of the rest of the industry, by provide a route to breaking the current cosy relationship between industry and regulator ?
    An on topic conversation!

    When the Water companies were on state ownership, investment was regularly blocked by the Treasury and waivers for breaching regulations were given instead.

    One of the reasons for privatisation was that drinking water quality rules were coming in and would require vast investment to deal with. Which actually happened.
    Whilst loading the companies with debt to pay dividends.
    What we are seeking is a system which falls between these two extremes.
    One in which promised investment is forthcoming whilst providing a reasonable return to shareholders which doesn't leave the company effectively bankrupt and the billpayer or taxpayer permanently on the hook.
    Surely that isn't an overly naive goal?
    I will make a case here for the Statutory Water Companies model. I used to work for one in the 1980s before Thatcher screwed them over and most got absorbed by the big water companies.
    Their dividends were limited by statute, so investors got a decent, safe, return. Also their borrowing was limited. To borrow above the limit meant going to Parliament for approval. So borrowing to build a reservoir or water treatment plant would be approved, but borrowing to just hand cash to investors would not.
    Historically, they came into being because the old Rural Districts, Urban Districts and Boroughs prioritised keeping the Rates down over investment.
    There are a lot of models.

    Does not Scotland have non-profit train companies, and Canada non-profit airports, for example?

    We still have certain community owned water companies, though I am not aware of any large ones. My favourite is near here in Youlgreave, which is regulated by the local authority not OFWAT.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Youlgrave_Waterworks

    One of our local Drs had a weekend house there, and they always claimed that because they were no. 2 on the pipe they were one of the few in the village with a power-shower. That is pushing it a bit because all you need to have one is an accumulator or a tank and pump.

    The more crucial thing is having political parties who believe in the public good as part of their value system.
    Most airports in the US are still under state control I believe.
    As is Luton. Well, council control.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 26,261
    To answer a couple of the questions posed -

    1. Re the cost of compensation, one reason why it is so high and, therefore, why we / the state are so willing to endure delay to minimise the cost is because we repeatedly and very very stupidly allow small problems to fester and grow and turn into bloody big crises which then cost the earth to solve. The answer is to deal with them at the start, to have proper investigations which can get to the cause and which it is a whole load easier nd cheaper to resolve and Lao avoids the institutional self-defensiveness which you find in so many scandals.

    This is not rocket science. I was saying it over and over at work and eventually they got the point and were delighted that there was someone there to sort out problems early. But most organisations - and I include government in this - do not understand what a good investigation is, appoint the wrong people to do them and do not see this as part of sensible risk assessment / problem solving but as denial and avoidance. It is another example of a false economy which is one of the fundamental failings in Britain's governance.

    2. It's not more legislation we need but a change in attitudes and a problem solving approach.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,082

    Taz said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    My main concern - alarm bells are ringing - is that we’re hearing the same things from Burnham’s team that we heard from Starmer’s in 2024.

    “The plan will come”.

    I won’t be lied to twice.

    Are you not including Corbyn too? Or did you not regard him as lying. more deluded?
    Corbyn lied about anti-Semitism. But that wasn’t not having a plan per se.
    I think his lies were more about the extent of the things he was going to provide - free wifi for all etc.
    I didn't doubt there was a plan to do those things, though. It wouldn’t have been delivered but I think they did have a plan.

    Burnham doesn’t seem to have a plan. Better comms will start him off well but it will only take him so far. Get Blair back in.
    If Blair was PM we would have troops in Iran and be in Trump’s pocket. Is that what you want?
    Yes, and hell no.
    You want our troops in Iran - what would they be doing
    Regime change.

    Support a new leader, eg Pahlavi, to take over the powers of the state and get their own army running things in Tehran and the oil fields etc (to control money) not the entire mountainous country, then let that leader take it from there.
    Um you clearly haven’t the first clue as how big and geographically awkward Iran is.
    I do, which is why I literally said do not take the entire country.

    Try reading what you respond to next time.
    Can you highlight an example where regime changew imposed by the West has worked out well in the long term? I don't say there won't be an example, I just can't think of any, whereas I can think of lots where it's gone badly.
    Like socialism, it will always be different the next time.
    Lol! ...unlike Neoliberalism which is always the same old failure.
    True. We need socialism. Let’s make everyone poorer. That’s just the ticket.

    Finish your new build and it can be turned over to a hippy commune 👍
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 20,924

    Pro_Rata said:

    Hello. Does anyone do better? What and where does good look like, or is this kind of after the fact ill treatment rife in democracies everywhere (and just more widespread in the places we expect to be abusive to their peoples)?

    I wanted to ask this too. Not that it makes the shocking examples @Cyclefree has highlighted any less shocking if every other state is just as bad or worse.

    My other question is what needs to change? Attitudes, clearly, but would further legislation help, or only make things worse?
    I fear such scandals can arise everywhere, across different countries, in the private sector as well as the public sector. That is not to say that we shouldn't or can't do something to minimise them occurring!

    In Ireland, there were the Magdalene laundries for "fallen women", the last of which only closed in 1996. Sexual, psychological and physical abuse was all too common. The Irish government acknowledged the problem in 2001, but resisted calls to do anything until 2011. You could look at the actions of the tobacco industry to deliberately conspire and lie about the dangers of tobacco for decades, or of the fossil fuel industry to do the same around climate change. Or how Volkswagen tried to cover up its emissions scandal.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 28,781

    eek said:

    eek said:

    My main concern - alarm bells are ringing - is that we’re hearing the same things from Burnham’s team that we heard from Starmer’s in 2024.

    “The plan will come”.

    I won’t be lied to twice.

    Are you not including Corbyn too? Or did you not regard him as lying. more deluded?
    Corbyn lied about anti-Semitism. But that wasn’t not having a plan per se.
    I think his lies were more about the extent of the things he was going to provide - free wifi for all etc.
    I didn't doubt there was a plan to do those things, though. It wouldn’t have been delivered but I think they did have a plan.

    Burnham doesn’t seem to have a plan. Better comms will start him off well but it will only take him so far. Get Blair back in.
    If Blair was PM we would have troops in Iran and be in Trump’s pocket. Is that what you want?
    Yes, and hell no.
    You want our troops in Iran - what would they be doing
    Regime change.

    Support a new leader, eg Pahlavi, to take over the powers of the state and get their own army running things in Tehran and the oil fields etc (to control money) not the entire mountainous country, then let that leader take it from there.
    Um you clearly haven’t the first clue as how big and geographically awkward Iran is.
    I do, which is why I literally said do not take the entire country.

    Try reading what you respond to next time.
    Can you highlight an example where regime changew imposed by the West has worked out well in the long term? I don't say there won't be an example, I just can't think of any, whereas I can think of lots where it's gone badly.
    Germany, Japan, Iraq.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 5,542
    kinabalu said:

    Two absolute scandals. Blood boils. The PO one is downright sinister. And Andrew Malkinson should be keeping every £ of his comp and then some. You only get one life and his has been ruined.

    Question though. Is it really such a slam dunk that on the reversal of a wrongful conviction compensation should *automatically* be paid regardless of context and circumstances?

    What about (say) an overturned conviction where evidence of guilt remains compelling but is later discovered to have been inadmissable on account of how it was obtained?

    The last paragraph implies malpractice or malice on part of police etc.

    I that case the public body/surviving policemen should become liable to their actions and be sue able. And liable to prison.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 37,008
    edited May 28
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    My main concern - alarm bells are ringing - is that we’re hearing the same things from Burnham’s team that we heard from Starmer’s in 2024.

    “The plan will come”.

    I won’t be lied to twice.

    Are you not including Corbyn too? Or did you not regard him as lying. more deluded?
    Corbyn lied about anti-Semitism. But that wasn’t not having a plan per se.
    I think his lies were more about the extent of the things he was going to provide - free wifi for all etc.
    I didn't doubt there was a plan to do those things, though. It wouldn’t have been delivered but I think they did have a plan.

    Burnham doesn’t seem to have a plan. Better comms will start him off well but it will only take him so far. Get Blair back in.
    If Blair was PM we would have troops in Iran and be in Trump’s pocket. Is that what you want?
    Yes, and hell no.
    You want our troops in Iran - what would they be doing
    Regime change.

    Support a new leader, eg Pahlavi, to take over the powers of the state and get their own army running things in Tehran and the oil fields etc (to control money) not the entire mountainous country, then let that leader take it from there.
    Um you clearly haven’t the first clue as how big and geographically awkward Iran is.
    I do, which is why I literally said do not take the entire country.

    Try reading what you respond to next time.
    Can you highlight an example where regime changew imposed by the West has worked out well in the long term? I don't say there won't be an example, I just can't think of any, whereas I can think of lots where it's gone badly.
    Like socialism, it will always be different the next time.
    Lol! ...unlike Neoliberalism which is always the same old failure.
    True. We need socialism. Let’s make everyone poorer. That’s just the ticket.

    Finish your new build and it can be turned over to a hippy commune 👍
    It's all done Taz. We moved in in February. Nine months to build from digging the first sod to moving in. We're now working on the garden which is very fulfilling.

    No hippies on site or in sight.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,789
    Curious intervention by former DPP Max Hill on juries undermining the justice system with conscience based decisions.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XDr1tThDQ0c

    I remember various pb notables defending conscience based jury decision making when it cropped up before.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 37,008

    eek said:

    eek said:

    My main concern - alarm bells are ringing - is that we’re hearing the same things from Burnham’s team that we heard from Starmer’s in 2024.

    “The plan will come”.

    I won’t be lied to twice.

    Are you not including Corbyn too? Or did you not regard him as lying. more deluded?
    Corbyn lied about anti-Semitism. But that wasn’t not having a plan per se.
    I think his lies were more about the extent of the things he was going to provide - free wifi for all etc.
    I didn't doubt there was a plan to do those things, though. It wouldn’t have been delivered but I think they did have a plan.

    Burnham doesn’t seem to have a plan. Better comms will start him off well but it will only take him so far. Get Blair back in.
    If Blair was PM we would have troops in Iran and be in Trump’s pocket. Is that what you want?
    Yes, and hell no.
    You want our troops in Iran - what would they be doing
    Regime change.

    Support a new leader, eg Pahlavi, to take over the powers of the state and get their own army running things in Tehran and the oil fields etc (to control money) not the entire mountainous country, then let that leader take it from there.
    Um you clearly haven’t the first clue as how big and geographically awkward Iran is.
    I do, which is why I literally said do not take the entire country.

    Try reading what you respond to next time.
    Can you highlight an example where regime changew imposed by the West has worked out well in the long term? I don't say there won't be an example, I just can't think of any, whereas I can think of lots where it's gone badly.
    Germany, Japan, Iraq.
    The first two were not originally about regime change as much as survival and defence against evil agression.

    Iraq? Oh my, definitely not.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 37,411
    Cyclefree said:

    To answer a couple of the questions posed -

    1. Re the cost of compensation, one reason why it is so high and, therefore, why we / the state are so willing to endure delay to minimise the cost is because we repeatedly and very very stupidly allow small problems to fester and grow and turn into bloody big crises which then cost the earth to solve. The answer is to deal with them at the start, to have proper investigations which can get to the cause and which it is a whole load easier nd cheaper to resolve and Lao avoids the institutional self-defensiveness which you find in so many scandals.

    This is not rocket science. I was saying it over and over at work and eventually they got the point and were delighted that there was someone there to sort out problems early. But most organisations - and I include government in this - do not understand what a good investigation is, appoint the wrong people to do them and do not see this as part of sensible risk assessment / problem solving but as denial and avoidance. It is another example of a false economy which is one of the fundamental failings in Britain's governance.

    2. It's not more legislation we need but a change in attitudes and a problem solving approach.

    Doesn't make one 'Proud to be British" does it!
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 20,924
    edited May 28

    eek said:

    eek said:

    My main concern - alarm bells are ringing - is that we’re hearing the same things from Burnham’s team that we heard from Starmer’s in 2024.

    “The plan will come”.

    I won’t be lied to twice.

    Are you not including Corbyn too? Or did you not regard him as lying. more deluded?
    Corbyn lied about anti-Semitism. But that wasn’t not having a plan per se.
    I think his lies were more about the extent of the things he was going to provide - free wifi for all etc.
    I didn't doubt there was a plan to do those things, though. It wouldn’t have been delivered but I think they did have a plan.

    Burnham doesn’t seem to have a plan. Better comms will start him off well but it will only take him so far. Get Blair back in.
    If Blair was PM we would have troops in Iran and be in Trump’s pocket. Is that what you want?
    Yes, and hell no.
    You want our troops in Iran - what would they be doing
    Regime change.

    Support a new leader, eg Pahlavi, to take over the powers of the state and get their own army running things in Tehran and the oil fields etc (to control money) not the entire mountainous country, then let that leader take it from there.
    Um you clearly haven’t the first clue as how big and geographically awkward Iran is.
    I do, which is why I literally said do not take the entire country.

    Try reading what you respond to next time.
    Can you highlight an example where regime changew imposed by the West has worked out well in the long term? I don't say there won't be an example, I just can't think of any, whereas I can think of lots where it's gone badly.
    Germany, Japan, Iraq.
    The first two were not originally about regime change as much as survival and defence against evil agression.

    Iraq? Oh my, definitely not.
    Sierra Leone? (Military intervention for one side.)

    Grenada?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,323

    Excellent article Cyclefree.

    Sadly the very old saying that "power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely" is completely correct - and the state wields absolute power.

    Any powers we give to the state can be abused, and given the amoral way the state acts, as described they do tend to be.

    Too often people propose granting powers to the state in the view that the best intentions will be followed, but in actual fact the most amoral and self-serving intentions end up being followed instead, which is why the state should only ever have the powers it actually needs.

    Do you suggest we take away the power to imprison people?
    The state should not have the power to imprison anyone arbitrarily, or at will, absolutely.

    Necessity involves things like a jury of your peers.
    Trouble is, the government wants to abolish jury trials in some cases, and in unrelated news, the Establishment is starting to complain about jurors returning verdicts of which prosecutors disapprove.

    Jurors Are Upending The Legal System By Using Their Conscience | Max Hill KC (former DPP)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XDr1tThDQ0c

    Funnily enough, juries sometimes find people guilty especially in emotive cases like sex crimes or terrorism, leading to miscarriages of justice like Andy Malkinson (see Cyclefree's header) but hey, who cares?

    As an aside, it is said that one of the reasons for abolishing the death penalty was that jurors had become reluctant to convict.

    Here is a one minute sketch featuring Lee Mack returning the jury's verdict:-
    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/r85Lz-VGEgc
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,834

    eek said:

    eek said:

    My main concern - alarm bells are ringing - is that we’re hearing the same things from Burnham’s team that we heard from Starmer’s in 2024.

    “The plan will come”.

    I won’t be lied to twice.

    Are you not including Corbyn too? Or did you not regard him as lying. more deluded?
    Corbyn lied about anti-Semitism. But that wasn’t not having a plan per se.
    I think his lies were more about the extent of the things he was going to provide - free wifi for all etc.
    I didn't doubt there was a plan to do those things, though. It wouldn’t have been delivered but I think they did have a plan.

    Burnham doesn’t seem to have a plan. Better comms will start him off well but it will only take him so far. Get Blair back in.
    If Blair was PM we would have troops in Iran and be in Trump’s pocket. Is that what you want?
    Yes, and hell no.
    You want our troops in Iran - what would they be doing
    Regime change.

    Support a new leader, eg Pahlavi, to take over the powers of the state and get their own army running things in Tehran and the oil fields etc (to control money) not the entire mountainous country, then let that leader take it from there.
    Um you clearly haven’t the first clue as how big and geographically awkward Iran is.
    I do, which is why I literally said do not take the entire country.

    Try reading what you respond to next time.
    Can you highlight an example where regime changew imposed by the West has worked out well in the long term? I don't say there won't be an example, I just can't think of any, whereas I can think of lots where it's gone badly.
    England 1688.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 20,924

    Pro_Rata said:

    Hello. Does anyone do better? What and where does good look like, or is this kind of after the fact ill treatment rife in democracies everywhere (and just more widespread in the places we expect to be abusive to their peoples)?

    I wanted to ask this too. Not that it makes the shocking examples @Cyclefree has highlighted any less shocking if every other state is just as bad or worse.

    My other question is what needs to change? Attitudes, clearly, but would further legislation help, or only make things worse?
    I fear such scandals can arise everywhere, across different countries, in the private sector as well as the public sector. That is not to say that we shouldn't or can't do something to minimise them occurring!

    In Ireland, there were the Magdalene laundries for "fallen women", the last of which only closed in 1996. Sexual, psychological and physical abuse was all too common. The Irish government acknowledged the problem in 2001, but resisted calls to do anything until 2011. You could look at the actions of the tobacco industry to deliberately conspire and lie about the dangers of tobacco for decades, or of the fossil fuel industry to do the same around climate change. Or how Volkswagen tried to cover up its emissions scandal.
    Or read about the cover-ups in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johnny_Kitagawa_sexual_abuse_scandal in Japan.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 13,444

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    MattW said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    So who has made more U turns - Burnham or Jenrick ?

    Burnham's are swerves not U-turns. He's still going in the same direction.
    Leftwards or rightwards?

    I can't tell any more.
    Not leftward or rightward but sensible: This is the clear direction.

    * Introduce PR (majority of public in favour)
    * Remove red lines on EU single market and customs union (majority of public in favour)
    * Take water companies into public ownership (big majority of public in favour even if it might seem left wing)
    * Enable local authorities to build more social housing (majority of public in favour)
    I’m pretty sure Burnham is not calling to take these companies into public ownership?
    Are you? What makes you so sure? He took the buses in Manchester into public ownership and it has been a great success.

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/andy-burnham-putting-everything-line-33989167

    In this interview, Burnham says he thinks there is case for public ownership of Thames Water.
    I thought he rowed back on this because of the costs involved.
    iirc Burnham didn't take the buses back into public ownership. He put them under public control

    Happy to be corrected if I have got this wrong.

    I think you are right. It is a franchise model similar to Transport for London I think. TFL works well.
    If it were applied to Thames Water, the government would set the prices, determine investments etc but outsource the actual operations for a fixed fee to one or more suppliers. I can see that working.
    It works in the NHS where most GP practices are outsourced and many hospital services.

    I think it's a good model.

    EDIT: It looks as if Horse and I are in agreement on this.
    I think the distinction is whether the supervisory body believes that strong regulation is necessary to the extent to maintain support for it.

    There is an analogy with corporate outsourcing, and the contrast between just letting it go, or retaining enough in house expertise such that the outsourcing supplier is kept on their toes.
    Keeping it in house would be vital to retain government expertise - or you're just recreating a similar situation to the current one with the regulator.

    You can use contractors, of course, but a "franchise" is just asking for problems.
    The Post Office suggests that merely being owned by the government doesn’t automatically fix the problem

    Nor do the numerous NHS scandals.

    What is required is active regulation. And management whose first concern is not (im)plausible deniability.
    As I said, government ownership isn't a panacea.
    But if government can't run a water company then it's hard to see how it can effectively regulate either.

    Public ownership of Thames might eventually also improve the regulation of the rest of the industry, by provide a route to breaking the current cosy relationship between industry and regulator ?
    An on topic conversation!

    When the Water companies were on state ownership, investment was regularly blocked by the Treasury and waivers for breaching regulations were given instead.

    One of the reasons for privatisation was that drinking water quality rules were coming in and would require vast investment to deal with. Which actually happened.
    Yes, but .... £80bn was then looted in dividends, most of which went overseas.
    And the system now requires.... vast investment.

    Bottom line is that either taxpayers or bill payers fund investment in the end.
    "The Treasury blocking investment", into a natural monopoly public utility, is a very, very poor reason for privatising it.
    The reason I bring it up, is that otherwise we create a loop.

    If we simply nationalise the water companies (as before) the politicians will set the prices, the Treasury will block investment and the same comedy will ensue.

    We need a better answer. What is it? I don’t know at this point.

    A first step would be to stop propping up those water companies. Let them go bankrupt. That, at least gets some hazard into the game.

    What then?
    Mutuals
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 37,008

    eek said:

    eek said:

    My main concern - alarm bells are ringing - is that we’re hearing the same things from Burnham’s team that we heard from Starmer’s in 2024.

    “The plan will come”.

    I won’t be lied to twice.

    Are you not including Corbyn too? Or did you not regard him as lying. more deluded?
    Corbyn lied about anti-Semitism. But that wasn’t not having a plan per se.
    I think his lies were more about the extent of the things he was going to provide - free wifi for all etc.
    I didn't doubt there was a plan to do those things, though. It wouldn’t have been delivered but I think they did have a plan.

    Burnham doesn’t seem to have a plan. Better comms will start him off well but it will only take him so far. Get Blair back in.
    If Blair was PM we would have troops in Iran and be in Trump’s pocket. Is that what you want?
    Yes, and hell no.
    You want our troops in Iran - what would they be doing
    Regime change.

    Support a new leader, eg Pahlavi, to take over the powers of the state and get their own army running things in Tehran and the oil fields etc (to control money) not the entire mountainous country, then let that leader take it from there.
    Um you clearly haven’t the first clue as how big and geographically awkward Iran is.
    I do, which is why I literally said do not take the entire country.

    Try reading what you respond to next time.
    Can you highlight an example where regime changew imposed by the West has worked out well in the long term? I don't say there won't be an example, I just can't think of any, whereas I can think of lots where it's gone badly.
    Germany, Japan, Iraq.
    The first two were not originally about regime change as much as survival and defence against evil agression.

    Iraq? Oh my, definitely not.
    Sierra Leone?

    Grenada?
    Grenada, I think yes.

    On the debit side: Libya, Iraq, Iran (1953), Afghanistan, Chile (1973), Guatemala (1954)... Plus various abject failures like Suez that didn't manage to effect the regime change.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 22,858

    Pro_Rata said:

    Hello. Does anyone do better? What and where does good look like, or is this kind of after the fact ill treatment rife in democracies everywhere (and just more widespread in the places we expect to be abusive to their peoples)?

    I wanted to ask this too. Not that it makes the shocking examples @Cyclefree has highlighted any less shocking if every other state is just as bad or worse.

    My other question is what needs to change? Attitudes, clearly, but would further legislation help, or only make things worse?
    I fear such scandals can arise everywhere, across different countries, in the private sector as well as the public sector. That is not to say that we shouldn't or can't do something to minimise them occurring!

    In Ireland, there were the Magdalene laundries for "fallen women", the last of which only closed in 1996. Sexual, psychological and physical abuse was all too common. The Irish government acknowledged the problem in 2001, but resisted calls to do anything until 2011. You could look at the actions of the tobacco industry to deliberately conspire and lie about the dangers of tobacco for decades, or of the fossil fuel industry to do the same around climate change. Or how Volkswagen tried to cover up its emissions scandal.
    If you're in a hole, the grim and grisly calculation goes something like this;

    1 Fess up, and face a ruinous cost and professional humilation

    2 Cover up, and you might get away with it. You might not, which might lead to an even more ruinous cost and even more professional humiliation. Except the cost and humiliation were going to be off the scale anyway, so who is counting?

    It's not nice, but it is rational. The best answer is to never put yourself near a hole in the first place, but that's not the spirit of the age.

    (The other answer is the engineering one- do accident enquiries to find the technical cause, rather than the moral culpability. That's fine if the cause really is technical- but often there is a moral failure at the root of these fiascos. And, as examples like the Magdalene laundries or the Iwerne camps show, even a strong moral compass is surprisingly easy to switch off if necessary.)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 37,008

    eek said:

    eek said:

    My main concern - alarm bells are ringing - is that we’re hearing the same things from Burnham’s team that we heard from Starmer’s in 2024.

    “The plan will come”.

    I won’t be lied to twice.

    Are you not including Corbyn too? Or did you not regard him as lying. more deluded?
    Corbyn lied about anti-Semitism. But that wasn’t not having a plan per se.
    I think his lies were more about the extent of the things he was going to provide - free wifi for all etc.
    I didn't doubt there was a plan to do those things, though. It wouldn’t have been delivered but I think they did have a plan.

    Burnham doesn’t seem to have a plan. Better comms will start him off well but it will only take him so far. Get Blair back in.
    If Blair was PM we would have troops in Iran and be in Trump’s pocket. Is that what you want?
    Yes, and hell no.
    You want our troops in Iran - what would they be doing
    Regime change.

    Support a new leader, eg Pahlavi, to take over the powers of the state and get their own army running things in Tehran and the oil fields etc (to control money) not the entire mountainous country, then let that leader take it from there.
    Um you clearly haven’t the first clue as how big and geographically awkward Iran is.
    I do, which is why I literally said do not take the entire country.

    Try reading what you respond to next time.
    Can you highlight an example where regime changew imposed by the West has worked out well in the long term? I don't say there won't be an example, I just can't think of any, whereas I can think of lots where it's gone badly.
    England 1688.
    Regime change imposed by the West?

    1688 was regime change driven from within, which is a completely different beast.
  • Jim_the_LurkerJim_the_Lurker Posts: 311
    carnforth said:

    CatMan said:

    MattW said:

    dixiedean said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    MattW said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    So who has made more U turns - Burnham or Jenrick ?

    Burnham's are swerves not U-turns. He's still going in the same direction.
    Leftwards or rightwards?

    I can't tell any more.
    Not leftward or rightward but sensible: This is the clear direction.

    * Introduce PR (majority of public in favour)
    * Remove red lines on EU single market and customs union (majority of public in favour)
    * Take water companies into public ownership (big majority of public in favour even if it might seem left wing)
    * Enable local authorities to build more social housing (majority of public in favour)
    I’m pretty sure Burnham is not calling to take these companies into public ownership?
    Are you? What makes you so sure? He took the buses in Manchester into public ownership and it has been a great success.

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/andy-burnham-putting-everything-line-33989167

    In this interview, Burnham says he thinks there is case for public ownership of Thames Water.
    I thought he rowed back on this because of the costs involved.
    iirc Burnham didn't take the buses back into public ownership. He put them under public control

    Happy to be corrected if I have got this wrong.

    I think you are right. It is a franchise model similar to Transport for London I think. TFL works well.
    If it were applied to Thames Water, the government would set the prices, determine investments etc but outsource the actual operations for a fixed fee to one or more suppliers. I can see that working.
    It works in the NHS where most GP practices are outsourced and many hospital services.

    I think it's a good model.

    EDIT: It looks as if Horse and I are in agreement on this.
    I think the distinction is whether the supervisory body believes that strong regulation is necessary to the extent to maintain support for it.

    There is an analogy with corporate outsourcing, and the contrast between just letting it go, or retaining enough in house expertise such that the outsourcing supplier is kept on their toes.
    Keeping it in house would be vital to retain government expertise - or you're just recreating a similar situation to the current one with the regulator.

    You can use contractors, of course, but a "franchise" is just asking for problems.
    The Post Office suggests that merely being owned by the government doesn’t automatically fix the problem

    Nor do the numerous NHS scandals.

    What is required is active regulation. And management whose first concern is not (im)plausible deniability.
    As I said, government ownership isn't a panacea.
    But if government can't run a water company then it's hard to see how it can effectively regulate either.
    water au
    Public ownership of Thames might eventually also improve the regulation of the rest of the industry, by provide a route to breaking the current cosy relationship between industry and regulator ?
    An on topic conversation!

    When the Water companies were on state ownership, investment was regularly blocked by the Treasury and waivers for breaching regulations were given instead.

    One of the reasons for privatisation was that drinking water quality rules were coming in and would require vast investment to deal with. Which actually happened.
    Whilst loading the companies with debt to pay dividends.
    What we are seeking is a system which falls between these two extremes.
    One in which promised investment is forthcoming whilst providing a reasonable return to shareholders which doesn't leave the company effectively bankrupt and the billpayer or taxpayer permanently on the hook.
    Surely that isn't an overly naive goal?
    I will make a case here for the Statutory Water Companies model. I used to work for one in the 1980s before Thatcher screwed them over and most got absorbed by the big water companies.
    Their dividends were limited by statute, so investors got a decent, safe, return. Also their borrowing was limited. To borrow above the limit meant going to Parliament for approval. So borrowing to build a reservoir or water treatment plant would be approved, but borrowing to just hand cash to investors would not.
    Historically, they came into being because the old Rural Districts, Urban Districts and Boroughs prioritised keeping the Rates down over investment.
    There are a lot of models.

    Does not Scotland have non-profit train companies, and Canada non-profit airports, for example?

    We still have certain community owned water companies, though I am not aware of any large ones. My favourite is near here in Youlgreave, which is regulated by the local authority not OFWAT.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Youlgrave_Waterworks

    One of our local Drs had a weekend house there, and they always claimed that because they were no. 2 on the pipe they were one of the few in the village with a power-shower. That is pushing it a bit because all you need to have one is an accumulator or a tank and pump.

    The more crucial thing is having political parties who believe in the public good as part of their value system.
    Most airports in the US are still under state control I believe.
    As is Luton. Well, council control.
    Manchester remains mostly owned by the local boroughs (and the city council) - they also own Stanstead (I think).

    In some ways the recent success of Manchester is down to having the airport as a good source of revenue and (i reckon) good consistent work over a lot of years by previous Manchester leader Richard Leese (I think there was also a CEO that hung around for a while doing similar but name escapes me). Burnham has in many ways been the beneficiary of the solid and, fairly, forward looking way that Manchester has been run. In comparison to many other local authorities / city regions it is top drawer - although if you read the Mill not without its own controversies.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 28,755
    Cyclefree said:



    viewcode said:

    Good article @Cyclefree . It is good to see you still writing articles. How are you feeling?

    It's been a tough few months this year, frankly. Hip and leg pain which has made mobility difficult and which no-one seems to know the cause of. Going for a walk is slower and more painful than I would like and that, coupled with learning for the first time that the cancer is in my lungs as well has rather depressed me. And I have had two bad falls - which is also a pain.

    OTOH it has accelerated my garden creation with some mesmeringly beautiful and high stone raised beds near completion, the Gertrude Jekyll roses are doing brilliantly, the garden room - designed by me (afternoon tea below plus roses) - is finished, my book proposal is coming along well, am doing lots of other writing and my humour has become blacker than ever. Also reading lots of great books. Plus today I bought two rather nice paintings by a local and very good artist, Jim Billsborough. There is an exhibition this weekend of his work at the local church which was sketched by Turner.

    Oh - and I have still written vastly more headers than you! 295 in fact.

    PS Thames Water are utter scumbags.
    Do you have carers coming round to check on you? I know benefits vary between areas but you may be entitled to more than you are currently claiming.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 26,261
    edited May 28

    Nigelb said:

    Another good header from Cyclefree, which along with the majority of PBers (and probably the rest of the public, too) I'm in sympathy with.

    Two comments here - while she is right to condemn the "cheeseparing' when it comes to compensation, the figures government pays out in compensation every year are quite significant. It's difficult to get a total figure, as government doesn't publish one, but it's likely well over £5bn excluding exceptional cases like the blood, and Post Office scandals.
    I'm not sure what conclusion to draw from that, other than just doing stuff better would save us an awful lot of money.

    Secondly, it seems to me that there's little reason we shouldn't pick out the most senior figures in the PO scandal who are most clearly likely to have been in breach of the law, and save years of investigation by concentrating on investigating and prosecuting them first.
    That ought to be doable with existing resources.

    When government fucks up, the money should be there to right that (invariably) egregious wrong.

    No ifs, no buts. Imagine you or a loved one on the end of that "cheeseparing". Yep, we'd both be incandescent.
    Worth remembering that in 2003 Alan Bates wrote a letter to the then Chief Executive, Allan Leighton, which set out concisely the 2 key problems with Horizon which it later took a judge over 500 pages to explain in 2019. Had his complaints - and he was in effect a whistleblower - been looked into properly, had they had a Cyclefree Investigations Team, much agony and eye watering cost would have been avoided. The PO's investigations team was nothing of the kind. A decade was lost because so-called managers did not know how to deal with a complaint. This is - to me - a level of incompetence which should never be tolerated, let alone rewarded in the way that it has been. Leighton should be in the stocks quite as much as Vennells.

    A decade was lost in the case of Malkinson too.

    The blood contamination case is even worse. I've read the report. It makes you weep. I and my brother have a rare blood condition and we were treated for it at the Royal Free's haemophilia unit run by Dr Kernoff. He was one of the doctors who warned government about the problem with infected blood products. It was our sheer good fortune that we did not get treated with any of the infected blood. I have lost all trust in the authorities to behave with any sense of decency towards me should something dreadful be done to me by those authorities. Such good behaviour as there is comes from individuals trying to behave professionally within a system which either makes this harder than it need be or does not reward or value it. And it is incidentally one reason why I am against AD - give the state the power to suggest suicide to those people who will cost it a lot to treat or help (like me, now) and that power will, without question, be abused - no matter what any procedure says.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 47,887

    viewcode said:

    I don't know if anybody read the Unherd article about bring back Blair, but here it is

    https://unherd.com/2026/05/its-time-to-bring-back-blair/

    I'm still a fan of 90s and 00s Blair and think he remains impressive. However he is now a political version of the typical aging bloke who thinks the only good music was from their own era. Blair thinks the answers are just to repeat what worked back then, but the challenges and opportunities are quite different today and over the next couple of decades. He is still worth listening to but he will often be wrong nowadays.
    How do you do fellow kids.
    Cool Britannia is great isn't it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,589

    Nigelb said:

    Another good header from Cyclefree, which along with the majority of PBers (and probably the rest of the public, too) I'm in sympathy with.

    Two comments here - while she is right to condemn the "cheeseparing' when it comes to compensation, the figures government pays out in compensation every year are quite significant. It's difficult to get a total figure, as government doesn't publish one, but it's likely well over £5bn excluding exceptional cases like the blood, and Post Office scandals.
    I'm not sure what conclusion to draw from that, other than just doing stuff better would save us an awful lot of money.

    Secondly, it seems to me that there's little reason we shouldn't pick out the most senior figures in the PO scandal who are most clearly likely to have been in breach of the law, and save years of investigation by concentrating on investigating and prosecuting them first.
    That ought to be doable with existing resources.

    When government fucks up, the money should be there to right that (invariably) egregious wrong.

    No ifs, no buts. Imagine you or a loved one on the end of that "cheeseparing". Yep, we'd both be incandescent.
    I'm not arguing otherwise.
    Just posting out that there's an awful lot of money paid out every year.
  • Andy has written a response to Mr Blair's piece.

    Burnham says we need a stronger response on small boats and implies Mahmood is making good progress. I suspect she stays in place.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,589

    eek said:

    eek said:

    My main concern - alarm bells are ringing - is that we’re hearing the same things from Burnham’s team that we heard from Starmer’s in 2024.

    “The plan will come”.

    I won’t be lied to twice.

    Are you not including Corbyn too? Or did you not regard him as lying. more deluded?
    Corbyn lied about anti-Semitism. But that wasn’t not having a plan per se.
    I think his lies were more about the extent of the things he was going to provide - free wifi for all etc.
    I didn't doubt there was a plan to do those things, though. It wouldn’t have been delivered but I think they did have a plan.

    Burnham doesn’t seem to have a plan. Better comms will start him off well but it will only take him so far. Get Blair back in.
    If Blair was PM we would have troops in Iran and be in Trump’s pocket. Is that what you want?
    Yes, and hell no.
    You want our troops in Iran - what would they be doing
    Regime change.

    Support a new leader, eg Pahlavi, to take over the powers of the state and get their own army running things in Tehran and the oil fields etc (to control money) not the entire mountainous country, then let that leader take it from there.
    Um you clearly haven’t the first clue as how big and geographically awkward Iran is.
    I do, which is why I literally said do not take the entire country.

    Try reading what you respond to next time.
    Can you highlight an example where regime changew imposed by the West has worked out well in the long term? I don't say there won't be an example, I just can't think of any, whereas I can think of lots where it's gone badly.
    Germany, Japan, Iraq.
    The regional collateral damage from Iraq - a war of choice - was immense.
    Overall, it went very badly indeed.
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 2,185

    Andy has written a response to Mr Blair's piece.

    Burnham says we need a stronger response on small boats and implies Mahmood is making good progress. I suspect she stays in place.

    He'd be an idiot to remove Reeves Mahmood or Cooper.

    He should ask a Streeting to come back to Health

    Promote Nandy to replace Lammy.











  • ManchesterKurtManchesterKurt Posts: 1,003
    edited May 28

    Andy has written a response to Mr Blair's piece.

    Burnham says we need a stronger response on small boats and implies Mahmood is making good progress. I suspect she stays in place.

    To use the old, maybe not too helpful language in 2026, I expect AB will seek to position himself 'right wing' on social matters and 'left wing' economically, the traditional red wall heartlands are vey much closer aligned to that approach than the London Labour party recognise.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 26,261
    edited May 28

    Pro_Rata said:

    Hello. Does anyone do better? What and where does good look like, or is this kind of after the fact ill treatment rife in democracies everywhere (and just more widespread in the places we expect to be abusive to their peoples)?

    I wanted to ask this too. Not that it makes the shocking examples @Cyclefree has highlighted any less shocking if every other state is just as bad or worse.

    My other question is what needs to change? Attitudes, clearly, but would further legislation help, or only make things worse?
    I fear such scandals can arise everywhere, across different countries, in the private sector as well as the public sector. That is not to say that we shouldn't or can't do something to minimise them occurring!

    In Ireland, there were the Magdalene laundries for "fallen women", the last of which only closed in 1996. Sexual, psychological and physical abuse was all too common. The Irish government acknowledged the problem in 2001, but resisted calls to do anything until 2011. You could look at the actions of the tobacco industry to deliberately conspire and lie about the dangers of tobacco for decades, or of the fossil fuel industry to do the same around climate change. Or how Volkswagen tried to cover up its emissions scandal.
    The Irish - and Irish men, in particular - are such hypocrites about the Magdalene laundries. Those girls did not make themselves pregnant. All the Irish men who got them pregnant were more than content to let those girls be hidden away in those laundries and their babies abandoned, allowed to die or sold for adoption. They walked away without taking any responsibility at all for their own behaviour.

    Then when the stories came out of the cruelty and abuse the nuns rightly got blamed. But Irish men were perfectly content for the nuns to take on the burden. They did not give a toss about what the nuns were doing when it happened. They did nothing to help those girls or their own children. And then they turned round and blamed the women for dealing with the consequences of the men's own behaviour. And congratulated themselves on uncovering abuse they'd happily participated in and turned a blind eye to for decades.

    Utter bastards, the lot of them.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,589

    Pro_Rata said:

    Hello. Does anyone do better? What and where does good look like, or is this kind of after the fact ill treatment rife in democracies everywhere (and just more widespread in the places we expect to be abusive to their peoples)?

    I wanted to ask this too. Not that it makes the shocking examples @Cyclefree has highlighted any less shocking if every other state is just as bad or worse.

    My other question is what needs to change? Attitudes, clearly, but would further legislation help, or only make things worse?
    I fear such scandals can arise everywhere, across different countries, in the private sector as well as the public sector. That is not to say that we shouldn't or can't do something to minimise them occurring!

    In Ireland, there were the Magdalene laundries for "fallen women", the last of which only closed in 1996. Sexual, psychological and physical abuse was all too common. The Irish government acknowledged the problem in 2001, but resisted calls to do anything until 2011. You could look at the actions of the tobacco industry to deliberately conspire and lie about the dangers of tobacco for decades, or of the fossil fuel industry to do the same around climate change. Or how Volkswagen tried to cover up its emissions scandal.
    If you're in a hole, the grim and grisly calculation goes something like this;

    1 Fess up, and face a ruinous cost and professional humilation

    2 Cover up, and you might get away with it. You might not, which might lead to an even more ruinous cost and even more professional humiliation. Except the cost and humiliation were going to be off the scale anyway, so who is counting?

    It's not nice, but it is rational. The best answer is to never put yourself near a hole in the first place, but that's not the spirit of the age.
    Which is another very good argument for Cyclefree's effective investigation.
    The calculus for the organisation which employs you is very different, since they are more likely to have to pay up for your misdeeds whichever of the two outcomes happens.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 33,475

    Nigelb said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    My main concern - alarm bells are ringing - is that we’re hearing the same things from Burnham’s team that we heard from Starmer’s in 2024.

    “The plan will come”.

    I won’t be lied to twice.

    Are you not including Corbyn too? Or did you not regard him as lying. more deluded?
    Corbyn lied about anti-Semitism. But that wasn’t not having a plan per se.
    I think his lies were more about the extent of the things he was going to provide - free wifi for all etc.
    I didn't doubt there was a plan to do those things, though. It wouldn’t have been delivered but I think they did have a plan.

    Burnham doesn’t seem to have a plan. Better comms will start him off well but it will only take him so far. Get Blair back in.
    If Blair was PM we would have troops in Iran and be in Trump’s pocket. Is that what you want?
    Yes, and hell no.
    You want our troops in Iran - what would they be doing
    Regime change.

    Support a new leader, eg Pahlavi, to take over the powers of the state and get their own army running things in Tehran and the oil fields etc (to control money) not the entire mountainous country, then let that leader take it from there.
    Um you clearly haven’t the first clue as how big and geographically awkward Iran is.
    I do, which is why I literally said do not take the entire country.

    Try reading what you respond to next time.
    Can you highlight an example where regime changew imposed by the West has worked out well in the long term? I don't say there won't be an example, I just can't think of any, whereas I can think of lots where it's gone badly.
    Japan and West Germany, post WWII.

    The cost to get to that point, though, was rather large.
    Yes, well done Gemini ;-)

    I think those two examples were rather the inevitable consequences of an existential fight thankfully won by the Allies.

    (@MattW too)
    Japan and Germany are the easy answers, where they were both industrialised societies.

    I think it is more interesting to think, for example, of post-1991 Eastern European countries, where democratic Western values were introduced somewhere on the spectrum between "imposition" and "adoption" - eg EU Membership had attached requirements around governance,

    Equally there are some countries in S America, Asia, Africa, where Western values an practices were imposed as a requirement if support, whether direct or via eg the WTO, or adopted - with very varying results.

    What about Taiwan? Ghana? South Africa? Costa Rica? Namibia?

    There are many types of influence, and many tools in the box.

    Taiwan is one of the top 10 most democractive countries in the world in most ratings I see. How did it turn into that - I don't know the history?

    What Trump has done is throw out all the tools except the lump hammer (and he does not want to impose Western democratic practices anyway - he wants banana republics).
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,834

    eek said:

    eek said:

    My main concern - alarm bells are ringing - is that we’re hearing the same things from Burnham’s team that we heard from Starmer’s in 2024.

    “The plan will come”.

    I won’t be lied to twice.

    Are you not including Corbyn too? Or did you not regard him as lying. more deluded?
    Corbyn lied about anti-Semitism. But that wasn’t not having a plan per se.
    I think his lies were more about the extent of the things he was going to provide - free wifi for all etc.
    I didn't doubt there was a plan to do those things, though. It wouldn’t have been delivered but I think they did have a plan.

    Burnham doesn’t seem to have a plan. Better comms will start him off well but it will only take him so far. Get Blair back in.
    If Blair was PM we would have troops in Iran and be in Trump’s pocket. Is that what you want?
    Yes, and hell no.
    You want our troops in Iran - what would they be doing
    Regime change.

    Support a new leader, eg Pahlavi, to take over the powers of the state and get their own army running things in Tehran and the oil fields etc (to control money) not the entire mountainous country, then let that leader take it from there.
    Um you clearly haven’t the first clue as how big and geographically awkward Iran is.
    I do, which is why I literally said do not take the entire country.

    Try reading what you respond to next time.
    Can you highlight an example where regime changew imposed by the West has worked out well in the long term? I don't say there won't be an example, I just can't think of any, whereas I can think of lots where it's gone badly.
    England 1688.
    Regime change imposed by the West?

    1688 was regime change driven from within, which is a completely different beast.
    It was an invasion to support one domestic faction against another. Much like backing the northern alliance in Afghanistan.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 20,924
    MattW said:

    Nigelb said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    My main concern - alarm bells are ringing - is that we’re hearing the same things from Burnham’s team that we heard from Starmer’s in 2024.

    “The plan will come”.

    I won’t be lied to twice.

    Are you not including Corbyn too? Or did you not regard him as lying. more deluded?
    Corbyn lied about anti-Semitism. But that wasn’t not having a plan per se.
    I think his lies were more about the extent of the things he was going to provide - free wifi for all etc.
    I didn't doubt there was a plan to do those things, though. It wouldn’t have been delivered but I think they did have a plan.

    Burnham doesn’t seem to have a plan. Better comms will start him off well but it will only take him so far. Get Blair back in.
    If Blair was PM we would have troops in Iran and be in Trump’s pocket. Is that what you want?
    Yes, and hell no.
    You want our troops in Iran - what would they be doing
    Regime change.

    Support a new leader, eg Pahlavi, to take over the powers of the state and get their own army running things in Tehran and the oil fields etc (to control money) not the entire mountainous country, then let that leader take it from there.
    Um you clearly haven’t the first clue as how big and geographically awkward Iran is.
    I do, which is why I literally said do not take the entire country.

    Try reading what you respond to next time.
    Can you highlight an example where regime changew imposed by the West has worked out well in the long term? I don't say there won't be an example, I just can't think of any, whereas I can think of lots where it's gone badly.
    Japan and West Germany, post WWII.

    The cost to get to that point, though, was rather large.
    Yes, well done Gemini ;-)

    I think those two examples were rather the inevitable consequences of an existential fight thankfully won by the Allies.

    (@MattW too)
    Japan and Germany are the easy answers, where they were both industrialised societies.

    I think it is more interesting to think, for example, of post-1991 Eastern European countries, where democratic Western values were introduced somewhere on the spectrum between "imposition" and "adoption" - eg EU Membership had attached requirements around governance,

    Equally there are some countries in S America, Asia, Africa, where Western values an practices were imposed as a requirement if support, whether direct or via eg the WTO, or adopted - with very varying results.

    What about Taiwan? Ghana? South Africa? Costa Rica? Namibia?

    There are many types of influence, and many tools in the box.

    Taiwan is one of the top 10 most democractive countries in the world in most ratings I see. How did it turn into that - I don't know the history?

    What Trump has done is throw out all the tools except the lump hammer (and he does not want to impose Western democratic practices anyway - he wants banana republics).
    Taiwan was under authoritarian rule since the end of WWII, with democratic reforms coming in the 1980s, without any invading Western armies.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 6,355
    edited May 28

    viewcode said:

    I don't know if anybody read the Unherd article about bring back Blair, but here it is

    https://unherd.com/2026/05/its-time-to-bring-back-blair/

    I'm still a fan of 90s and 00s Blair and think he remains impressive. However he is now a political version of the typical aging bloke who thinks the only good music was from their own era. Blair thinks the answers are just to repeat what worked back then, but the challenges and opportunities are quite different today and over the next couple of decades. He is still worth listening to but he will often be wrong nowadays.
    I agree

    Blairism was essentially buying of key swing voter groups with public money from a flourishing economy delivered by the Thatcher and Major governments. Other components, like flooding the country with immigrants, worship of "spin", i.e. lies, bungled wars and constitutional vandalism were peripheral.

    As the Heir-to-Blair Conservative government didn't deliver a flourishing economy, Blairism now would be impossible.

    So Blair should slither somewhere far away.
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