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The weekly Ashcroft phone poll continues to surprise us. From being, until last week, the only pollster not to have recorded a LAB lead in 2015 the latest, published at 4pm, has the very best figures for LAB in a phone poll since the Guardian’s ICM poll in mid-December.
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Lord Ashcroft poll
Con 32 (+2) Lab 36 (+5) LD 7 (-2) UKIP 11 (-5) Greens 8 (nc)
Highest Lab score with Lord A since July, Lowest ever UKIP score with the Good Lord
Clear Outlier/Gold Standard/Lead Standard/Peak Kipper
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That price on a Labour majority a couple of weeks ago looks even more batshit crazy in light of this poll0
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LARGER (Lord Ashcroft Randomly Generated Election Result) is a complete joke0
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Clear outlier, it's the reverse outlier of the 6% Tory lead.
Better to use a polling average.0 -
His Lordship appears to have been reunited with his pogo stick.0
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Up and down like a hookers draws as usual.0
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Is the good Lord's poll becoming the Angus Reid poll of this election?
Its up and down like t' whore's drawers0 -
Boing.
FPT: Mr. Urquhart, you ought to be ashamed of yourself, posting that.
You missed off the apostrophe. And it's 'drawers'.0 -
Where's yer crossover now?
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The price (an constant fluctuations) on the Indyref outcome confused the heck out of me. By comparison GE15 betting means I need a new word to describe hyper-confusion.TheScreamingEagles said:That price on a Labour majority looks even more batshit crazy in light of this poll
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But what, I feel you asking, if each of the leaders were a supermarket? Four our groups, the answer to this important question was that Nigel Farage would be Aldi: “you know what you’re getting. Down to earth. Anyone can shop there.” Nick Clegg would be the Co-op, with “all its nice fair trade values” (if this sounds like a compliment, the tone of voice suggested it was not intended as one). David Cameron would inevitably be Waitrose, but “pretending to be Sainsbury’s”. Ed Miliband, by the same token, would “go to Waitrose but with his Lidl bag-for-life to carry round afterwards.”0
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TheScreamingEagles said:
That price on a Labour majority looks even more batshit crazy in light of this poll
TheScreamingEagles said:Lord Ashcroft poll
Con 32 (+2) Lab 36 (+5) LD 7 (-2) UKIP 11 (-5) Greens 8 (nc)
Highest Lab score with Lord A since July, Lowest ever UKIP score with the Good Lord
Clear Outlier/Gold Standard/Lead Standard/Peak Kipper One poll to be considered as part of the trend showing Labour and the Conservatives roughly equal, perhaps Labour slightly ahead.
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Who has been betting heavily on ukip to get most seats?0
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Mr. Alistair, ultra-confusion?0
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I'm pretty sure UKIP haven't mislaid over 30% of their supporters in the last week, so I think we can file this one under 'another volatile Ashcroft poll'.0
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The whores I know, don't wear any drawers.saddo said:Is the good Lord's poll becoming the Angus Reid poll of this election?
Its up and down like t' whore's drawers0 -
Labour aren't 6% in England.0
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Labour 16 clear in SE England. Tories 6 clear of Labour in Scotland.0
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"UKIP: The First 100 Days" has resulted in all those on the left who were toying with them heading back to Labour. Or something.
We do love His Lordship's Bouncy Castle of Polling though.0 -
O/T
Does anyone know why the YouGov share price has jumped 6% in the past half hour?0 -
Lets guess who's turn will be to go up/down 5% in next weeks Ashcroft poll.0
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Here's another one for @Antifrank's venn diagram.0
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Meanwhile, Labour most seats was last traded at 2.66 (13/8) on Betfair. It's not at all clear to me that anything much has changed in the polling in the last couple of months.0
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Hah Mogg always great value.0
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Do we know who it is who is actually conducting this polling, because it is so much more volatile than any other pollsters out there.0
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Course you do!
"I do admire the bravery of CON most seats punters – risking their cash in defiance of the polls and the unreformed electoral system that still favours LAB. "0 -
I make both Green and LDs on 7, but may be due to minor rounding quibbles.0
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Labour 38 vs Tories 32 in England. Someone smoking something weird here0
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Definite Lib Dems in this poll = 2.5%0
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The headline is all about scarey news for the Tory backers, despite the blues being up 2%, but absolutely no mention of the LibDems being down a miserable 2% - pity their poor backers or what!0
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Up and down like a fiddler's elbow.Speedy said:Clear outlier, it's the reverse outlier of the 6% Tory lead.
Better to use a polling average.
Sorry but what with this and the arithmetical feckup and the vanity re-badging so we have no idea who is actually doing the polling, LOL.0 -
Mr. Pulpstar, what's the Mogg said?0
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Kippers soaring like a house brick.
Com Res and YG tonight ?0 -
The Managing Director of ComRes has confirmed they won't be doing a Daily Poll for the Daily Mail. Just the continuation of their current polls.0
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This week, I have mostly been polling in Northern Working Mens Clubs....saddo said:Labour 38 vs Tories 32 in England. Someone smoking something weird here
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Always assuming one has the same blind faith in this relatively inexperienced, unproven pollster as some clearly do. Personally, I prefer to rely on the tried and tested ones.TheScreamingEagles said:That price on a Labour majority a couple of weeks ago looks even more batshit crazy in light of this poll
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Other than The Mogg, there are some astonishingly thick MP's at that session. Austin Mitchell was bang on the money.Pulpstar said:Hah Mogg always great value.
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It's not just Ashcroft though.peter_from_putney said:
Always assuming one has the same blind faith in this relatively inexperienced, unproven pollster as some clearly do. Personally, I prefer to rely on the tried and tested ones.TheScreamingEagles said:That price on a Labour majority a couple of weeks ago looks even more batshit crazy in light of this poll
Take Ipsos-Mori, who were very accurate at the last election, are only a sub MOE swing away from a Labour Majority0 -
Simple average of Ashcroft and Populus puts Lab 2% ahead, or if you prefer the ELBOW methodology, 1.3% ahead - take your pick 0
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Even the most respectable families arrange their families to minimize tax. Got heckled from the Labour benches but obviously refferring to the (Quite proper) Miliband family tax arrangements.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Pulpstar, what's the Mogg said?
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But dont panic...incumbency will see them throughTissue_Price said:Definite Lib Dems in this poll = 2.5%
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"Super-ELBOW" for all of February's polls so far gives Lab 1.3% lead, with less than a week to go.0
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Mr. Pulpstar, a sound point from Mogg.0
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Depends whereabouts the people in survey have been taken from - could point to a CON gain in the south of Scotland...Alistair said:0 -
Have we ever seen a tweet along the lines of "New poll by XXX out tonight at 10pm, but to be honest it's pretty boring"0
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OOOOOH The ComRes Daily Mail polls will be Phone polls0
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From Lord Ashcroft's commentary on the polls, this report from a focus group will be more encouraging to the Lib Dems:timmo said:
But dont panic...incumbency will see them throughTissue_Price said:Definite Lib Dems in this poll = 2.5%
http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2015/02/lord-ashcroft-labours-lead-up-to-four-points-in-my-latest-poll.html
"In Taunton, most participants knew Jeremy Browne was standing down (“he fell out with Nick Clegg. He was Under-Foreign Secretary or something and got the sack”). He was visible and well known locally, though there was some dispute as to whether this meant he was a good MP or merely “likes having his photo taken”. The Conservative challenger Rebecca Pow was also mentioned by name by several people in the groups – an rare feat for a candidate. Even so, most of those who had voted Lib Dem last time said they would probably do so again, either because they thought the party had done reasonably well in office on things like the tax threshold and free school meals, or because they were simply the local alternative to the Conservatives."0 -
Anticipation!TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Labour 6% ahead in England would probably result in a landslide victory for the party. They'd be regaining seats they lost in 2005. I have to say that seems unlikely. I think this is just one of those odd results you get from time to time.0
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Another "interesting" poll eh?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Anticipation!TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
One for conspiracy theorists & those who doubt pollsters. Con Peer @LordAshcroft's poll has Lab ahead. Guardian Group polls have Con ahead0
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How does that compare to January.Sunil_Prasannan said:"Super-ELBOW" for all of February's polls so far gives Lab 1.3% lead, with less than a week to go.
In fact has the level of lead been about that since October?
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The counterpoint is perhaps that... Clegg is toastantifrank said:
From Lord Ashcroft's commentary on the polls, this report from a focus group will be more encouraging to the Lib Dems:timmo said:
But dont panic...incumbency will see them throughTissue_Price said:Definite Lib Dems in this poll = 2.5%
http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2015/02/lord-ashcroft-labours-lead-up-to-four-points-in-my-latest-poll.html
"In Taunton, most participants knew Jeremy Browne was standing down (“he fell out with Nick Clegg. He was Under-Foreign Secretary or something and got the sack”). He was visible and well known locally, though there was some dispute as to whether this meant he was a good MP or merely “likes having his photo taken”. The Conservative challenger Rebecca Pow was also mentioned by name by several people in the groups – an rare feat for a candidate. Even so, most of those who had voted Lib Dem last time said they would probably do so again, either because they thought the party had done reasonably well in office on things like the tax threshold and free school meals, or because they were simply the local alternative to the Conservatives." (Well probably not but...) 0 -
Like Steve *Interesting* Daviesrottenborough said:
Another "interesting" poll eh?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Anticipation!TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
@Antifrank If the Lib Dem vote is going to collapse completely outside their own seats I'd imagine that's good for Labour.0
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Surely his Lordship can find a better use for his money than this nonsense. This is about as useful as TNS.
All that said the Labour majority offers continue to look absurdly tasty.0 -
Hmmm - most may not be enough. Result last time was LD 49 Con 42 Lab 5 UKIP 4 so nothing to squeeze (though some blue bleed to UKIP to be expected).antifrank said:
From Lord Ashcroft's commentary on the polls, this report from a focus group will be more encouraging to the Lib Dems:timmo said:
But dont panic...incumbency will see them throughTissue_Price said:Definite Lib Dems in this poll = 2.5%
http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2015/02/lord-ashcroft-labours-lead-up-to-four-points-in-my-latest-poll.html
"In Taunton, most participants knew Jeremy Browne was standing down (“he fell out with Nick Clegg. He was Under-Foreign Secretary or something and got the sack”). He was visible and well known locally, though there was some dispute as to whether this meant he was a good MP or merely “likes having his photo taken”. The Conservative challenger Rebecca Pow was also mentioned by name by several people in the groups – an rare feat for a candidate. Even so, most of those who had voted Lib Dem last time said they would probably do so again, either because they thought the party had done reasonably well in office on things like the tax threshold and free school meals, or because they were simply the local alternative to the Conservatives."
And surely a focus group is a bit self-selecting in terms of interest in politics?
8/13 on the Tories looks like one of the better Con-LD bets out there.0 -
I think that is very likely. Maybe even get 2. And all, as you say, by staying out of the traffic and holding their existing vote.Alistair said:0 -
It can't be bad for Labour, but the Greens must be getting their support somewhere, and that's the single likeliest source - erstwhile Lib Dems in seats where the Lib Dems are second or worse.Pulpstar said:@Antifrank If the Lib Dem vote is going to collapse completely outside their own seats I'd imagine that's good for Labour.
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The interesting bit of that commentary is the word "most" not all..Pulpstar said:
The counterpoint is perhaps that... Clegg is toastantifrank said:
From Lord Ashcroft's commentary on the polls, this report from a focus group will be more encouraging to the Lib Dems:timmo said:
But dont panic...incumbency will see them throughTissue_Price said:Definite Lib Dems in this poll = 2.5%
http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2015/02/lord-ashcroft-labours-lead-up-to-four-points-in-my-latest-poll.html
"In Taunton, most participants knew Jeremy Browne was standing down (“he fell out with Nick Clegg. He was Under-Foreign Secretary or something and got the sack”). He was visible and well known locally, though there was some dispute as to whether this meant he was a good MP or merely “likes having his photo taken”. The Conservative challenger Rebecca Pow was also mentioned by name by several people in the groups – an rare feat for a candidate. Even so, most of those who had voted Lib Dem last time said they would probably do so again, either because they thought the party had done reasonably well in office on things like the tax threshold and free school meals, or because they were simply the local alternative to the Conservatives." (Well probably not but...)0 -
Poll last week with 4 point Tory lead - "outlier"
Poll this week with 4 point Labour lead - "labour majority".0 -
The Greens arePulpstar said:Labour aren't 6% in England.
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With this include the usual quality of ComRes questions likeSunil_Prasannan said:
Anticipation!TheScreamingEagles said:
"Given the Tories are the big friends of tax dodgers and dodgy banks, do you trust them to look after you?"
or
"Given that Labour receive all their money from left wing Marxist Unions, do you think you would trust them with your money?"0 -
Who said that?chestnut said:Poll last week with 4 point Tory lead - "outlier"
Poll this week with 4 point Labour lead - "labour majority".0 -
All-January "Super-ELBOW" = 1.1% lead for the Reds.bigjohnowls said:
How does that compare to January.Sunil_Prasannan said:"Super-ELBOW" for all of February's polls so far gives Lab 1.3% lead, with less than a week to go.
In fact has the level of lead been about that since October?
But was a few decimals higher in Autumn 2014.0 -
Oh I agree. I've backed the Conservatives from evens in this seat and nothing in this commentary puts me off those bets.Tissue_Price said:
Hmmm - most may not be enough. Result last time was LD 49 Con 42 Lab 5 UKIP 4 so nothing to squeeze (though some blue bleed to UKIP to be expected).antifrank said:
From Lord Ashcroft's commentary on the polls, this report from a focus group will be more encouraging to the Lib Dems:timmo said:
But dont panic...incumbency will see them throughTissue_Price said:Definite Lib Dems in this poll = 2.5%
http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2015/02/lord-ashcroft-labours-lead-up-to-four-points-in-my-latest-poll.html
"In Taunton, most participants knew Jeremy Browne was standing down (“he fell out with Nick Clegg. He was Under-Foreign Secretary or something and got the sack”). He was visible and well known locally, though there was some dispute as to whether this meant he was a good MP or merely “likes having his photo taken”. The Conservative challenger Rebecca Pow was also mentioned by name by several people in the groups – an rare feat for a candidate. Even so, most of those who had voted Lib Dem last time said they would probably do so again, either because they thought the party had done reasonably well in office on things like the tax threshold and free school meals, or because they were simply the local alternative to the Conservatives."
And surely a focus group is a bit self-selecting in terms of interest in politics?
8/13 on the Tories looks like one of the better Con-LD bets out there.0 -
Utterly OT, but I'm bamboozled by e-books that cost more than print editions.0
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His Lordship really is toying with us exquisitely.0
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I do agree with the general view that this is an outlier (though I think the Opinium poll putting the Tories ahead was too). It's not the subsamples (which are neither here nor there - the poll isn't balanced for subsamples) but I don't believe there has been an overall quantum leap. Labour is IMO slightly ahead, has been since October, and probably will be until May.
I do think UKIP is off the boil and that it's not benefiting the Tories, net, because it's the less committed ones who switched recently from Labour who are drifting back in greater numbers. Ironically, perhaps Cameron needs a debate giving Farage more airtime to stop the rot.0 -
House seems to broadly agree on this anti-ISIS stuff. Difficult not to I guess !0
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Broken, sleazy fruitcakes on the slide...
[jk]0 -
It's very unusual for the Lab/Green score to exceed the Con/UKIP score, in any poll. I imagine that Lord Ashcroft picked up an unusually left-wing sample.0
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There is still March and April for Rod Crosby January crossoverSunil_Prasannan said:
All-January "Super-ELBOW" = 1.1% lead for the Reds.bigjohnowls said:
How does that compare to January.Sunil_Prasannan said:"Super-ELBOW" for all of February's polls so far gives Lab 1.3% lead, with less than a week to go.
In fact has the level of lead been about that since October?
But was a few decimals higher in Autumn 2014.0 -
This is the highest combined Con + Lab share with Lord Ashcroft since the 13th of July, when it was also 68, as it is today.
Incidentally, the weeks either side then, it was 61 and 62.
Last week it was 61.
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Nah. Try again Lord A.0
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Offtopic - Hope everyone is feeling better than me today, sick & in bed
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A LD standing down is gold dust for their opposition, frequently providing a once-in-a-generation chance to rid a cell of the yellow peril.antifrank said:
Oh I agree. I've backed the Conservatives from evens in this seat and nothing in this commentary puts me off those bets.Tissue_Price said:
Hmmm - most may not be enough. Result last time was LD 49 Con 42 Lab 5 UKIP 4 so nothing to squeeze (though some blue bleed to UKIP to be expected).antifrank said:
From Lord Ashcroft's commentary on the polls, this report from a focus group will be more encouraging to the Lib Dems:timmo said:
But dont panic...incumbency will see them throughTissue_Price said:Definite Lib Dems in this poll = 2.5%
http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2015/02/lord-ashcroft-labours-lead-up-to-four-points-in-my-latest-poll.html
"In Taunton, most participants knew Jeremy Browne was standing down (“he fell out with Nick Clegg. He was Under-Foreign Secretary or something and got the sack”). He was visible and well known locally, though there was some dispute as to whether this meant he was a good MP or merely “likes having his photo taken”. The Conservative challenger Rebecca Pow was also mentioned by name by several people in the groups – an rare feat for a candidate. Even so, most of those who had voted Lib Dem last time said they would probably do so again, either because they thought the party had done reasonably well in office on things like the tax threshold and free school meals, or because they were simply the local alternative to the Conservatives."
And surely a focus group is a bit self-selecting in terms of interest in politics?
8/13 on the Tories looks like one of the better Con-LD bets out there.
The only two seats where newbie Lib Dems are favourite are Bath and Hazel Grove. The latter is intriguing but tough to recommend a bet at the prices.0 -
That's about how I see, Franky.antifrank said:Meanwhile, Labour most seats was last traded at 2.66 (13/8) on Betfair. It's not at all clear to me that anything much has changed in the polling in the last couple of months.
Over the last week or so I had started to convince myself we were seeing a small but definite improvement for the Tories. It wasn't the occasional very good poll that caught my attention, but rather the way the Labour leads were pretty limited to three points at most and were mostly ones and twos. Now we get a four.
Back to square one.0 -
Big difference with ComRes on immigration.
Ashcroft: 31% (UKIP best on immigration)
ComRes: 40% (UKIP best on immigration)
twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/566581989059600384
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/02/ashcroft-national-poll-con-32-lab-36-lib-dem-7-ukip-11-green-8/0 -
That's why we need more Green representation in Parliament.Pulpstar said:House seems to broadly agree on this anti-ISIS stuff. Difficult not to I guess !
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Just released a market for 'turnout' on sporting index for anyone interested.
Interesting poll, not just this but the last 20 or so. I make Tories around 54% chance of most seats, big lay at current bf prices.0 -
Mr. Pulpstar, hope you recover soon.0
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I think Lord Ashcroft has helped create a topic of unity amongst all PBers that his national polling is a bit volatile.
The only time we've had unity amongst all PBers is that
1) Jade Dernbach is the worst pie thrower to ever play for England
2) Sion Simon's we cannot be killed article was the worst political prediction ever.0 -
Dernbach now has competition on the world stage with pie eater Malinga...oh wait you said pie thrower, no Malinga doesn't throw any pies anyway by the looks on him now.TheScreamingEagles said:I think Lord Ashcroft has helped create a topic of unity amongst all PBers that his national polling is a bit volatile.
The only time we've had unity amongst all PBers is that
1) Jade Dernbach is the worst pie thrower to every play for England
2) Sion Simon's we cannot be killed was the worst political prediction ever.0 -
I thought January was the Month of Crossover. And February is the Month of Pulling Away.bigjohnowls said:
There is still March and April for Rod Crosby January crossoverSunil_Prasannan said:
All-January "Super-ELBOW" = 1.1% lead for the Reds.bigjohnowls said:
How does that compare to January.Sunil_Prasannan said:"Super-ELBOW" for all of February's polls so far gives Lab 1.3% lead, with less than a week to go.
In fact has the level of lead been about that since October?
But was a few decimals higher in Autumn 2014.
I fear for young Sunil if we don't get Crossover soon.0 -
To be an outlier you have to outlie from an otherwise consistent pattern. This doesn't even make it as an outlier.NickPalmer said:I do agree with the general view that this is an outlier (though I think the Opinium poll putting the Tories ahead was too). It's not the subsamples (which are neither here nor there - the poll isn't balanced for subsamples) but I don't believe there has been an overall quantum leap. Labour is IMO slightly ahead, has been since October, and probably will be until May.
I do think UKIP is off the boil and that it's not benefiting the Tories, net, because it's the less committed ones who switched recently from Labour who are drifting back in greater numbers. Ironically, perhaps Cameron needs a debate giving Farage more airtime to stop the rot.0 -
@AndrewSparrow: Ed Balls v George Osborne on HSBC - Verdict - http://t.co/nDgCfTSzt2 - Osborne saw off Balls with ease0
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The really frightening LibDem finding is that two thirds of their rump support say they may yet vote differently (vs 40ish for the other parties).0
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@Nick Palmer
"Ironically, perhaps Cameron needs a debate giving Farage more airtime to stop the rot. "
That's mischievous, Nick!
He needs a debate with Farage like he needs a second hole in his rectum. Fortunately there's little chance of either.
Nice try though. :-)0 -
I don't want to get into a flame war about Peak Kipper or not, but I am right in thinking, UKIP haven't been as visible as much recently, whilst the big two kick lumps out of each other.
So we've seen UKIP going down, and the big two on the up.
Given the format of the debates was the Cameron v Miliband head to head to be the final debate, a week before election day, perhaps UKIP have dodged a bullet with the likelihood of no debates.0 -
So we've had:
Populus - Con/Lab Tied
The Good Lord Amen - Lab Lead
My guess for next two polls:
YouGov - 1-2% Lab Lead
ComRes - 1-2% Con Lead
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This discussion has been closed.