A good poll for the Tories. That puts them and Labour neck and neck on 34% across telephone polls, with UKIP on 11%. But, I think the UKIP well has now run dry. To win, the Tories have to take votes off Labour.
Isn't this basically because they're applying a national swing within Scotland? Whereas the shrewdies know to expect bigger swings in Glasgow and smaller ones in Edinburgh. Which, given where those seats start from, means increased volatility in their result.
Basically the bookies (helped by Ashcroft) are probably a lot closer to the truth than Electoral Forecast..
They claim to take account of the Ashcroft polls. It's very hard to know where the truth lies with this, but at the very least it might prove a prompt for where to look for value.
SNP being ahead in Paisley and Renfrewshire South, difficult to believe a poll conducted at the same point would have found Labour ahead in P&RN, especially as @Antifrank's model identified the extraordinary value in Cumbernauld.
I think the problem with the various analyses of Scottish seats is that the premise for the analysis is the wrong way round. You would get a better picture if you take the starting assumption that "the SNP are the incumbent" and then work out reasons why they might be defeated. That would reflect better the scale of both SNP support and the massive shift in the electorate.
Once you do that, you can get a better picture of the likely outcome and it does become quite a compelling argument that the seat predictions are underestimating the SNP. Their support *looks* solid. Secondary polling questions like "who is best placed to stand up for Scotland", the strength of VI and the softness of support, everything points to the SNP vote being more robust than anyone except the Tories,
Once you do that it becomes pretty clear that there are only a handful of seats that the SNP can realistically be beaten in and, for example, Glasgow NE is not one of them.
I stopped believing anything from the SNP in May 2012 when they announced they were going to take full control of Glasgow in that year's locals and LAB return to full power.
Remember the SNP's "missing million" for thr IndyRef. What happened to them?
I'm not sure how relevant it is to use an STV system in three and four member constituencies being used for the first time with no pre-election polling and a significant fall in Lib/Tory/Green share letting Labour scoop up third seats.
However, if your argument is you believe the opposite of what the SNP says is true, the SNP are predicting a very lo-ball 20 to 25 seats so presumably you are thinking 50+ like me?
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However, if your argument is you believe the opposite of what the SNP says is true, the SNP are predicting a very lo-ball 20 to 25 seats so presumably you are thinking 50+ like me?
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/569983830947463170
Living in Fantasy Eckland is so past it, get in with Nippy Sweetie.