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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Something to scare those who’ve been betting heavily on UKI

SystemSystem Posts: 12,215
edited February 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Something to scare those who’ve been betting heavily on UKIP and the Tories winning most seats

The weekly Ashcroft phone poll continues to surprise us. From being, until last week, the only pollster not to have recorded a LAB lead in 2015 the latest, published at 4pm, has the very best figures for LAB in a phone poll since the Guardian’s ICM poll in mid-December.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    Lord Ashcroft poll

    Con 32 (+2) Lab 36 (+5) LD 7 (-2) UKIP 11 (-5) Greens 8 (nc)

    Highest Lab score with Lord A since July, Lowest ever UKIP score with the Good Lord

    Clear Outlier/Gold Standard/Lead Standard/Peak Kipper

    Delete as appropriate
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    edited February 2015
    That price on a Labour majority a couple of weeks ago looks even more batshit crazy in light of this poll
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    LARGER (Lord Ashcroft Randomly Generated Election Result) is a complete joke
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Clear outlier, it's the reverse outlier of the 6% Tory lead.

    Better to use a polling average.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    His Lordship appears to have been reunited with his pogo stick.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,514
    Up and down like a hookers draws as usual.
  • saddosaddo Posts: 534
    Is the good Lord's poll becoming the Angus Reid poll of this election?

    Its up and down like t' whore's drawers
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    Boing.

    FPT: Mr. Urquhart, you ought to be ashamed of yourself, posting that.

    You missed off the apostrophe. And it's 'drawers'.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,123
    edited February 2015
    Where's yer crossover now?

    :):):lol::lol:
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    That price on a Labour majority looks even more batshit crazy in light of this poll

    The price (an constant fluctuations) on the Indyref outcome confused the heck out of me. By comparison GE15 betting means I need a new word to describe hyper-confusion.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    But what, I feel you asking, if each of the leaders were a supermarket? Four our groups, the answer to this important question was that Nigel Farage would be Aldi: “you know what you’re getting. Down to earth. Anyone can shop there.” Nick Clegg would be the Co-op, with “all its nice fair trade values” (if this sounds like a compliment, the tone of voice suggested it was not intended as one). David Cameron would inevitably be Waitrose, but “pretending to be Sainsbury’s”. Ed Miliband, by the same token, would “go to Waitrose but with his Lidl bag-for-life to carry round afterwards.”
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Who has been betting heavily on ukip to get most seats?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    That price on a Labour majority looks even more batshit crazy in light of this poll

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Lord Ashcroft poll

    Con 32 (+2) Lab 36 (+5) LD 7 (-2) UKIP 11 (-5) Greens 8 (nc)

    Highest Lab score with Lord A since July, Lowest ever UKIP score with the Good Lord

    Clear Outlier/Gold Standard/Lead Standard/Peak Kipper One poll to be considered as part of the trend showing Labour and the Conservatives roughly equal, perhaps Labour slightly ahead.

    Delete as appropriate

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    Mr. Alistair, ultra-confusion?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    I'm pretty sure UKIP haven't mislaid over 30% of their supporters in the last week, so I think we can file this one under 'another volatile Ashcroft poll'.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    saddo said:

    Is the good Lord's poll becoming the Angus Reid poll of this election?

    Its up and down like t' whore's drawers

    The whores I know, don't wear any drawers.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Labour aren't 6% in England.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Labour 16 clear in SE England. Tories 6 clear of Labour in Scotland.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    "UKIP: The First 100 Days" has resulted in all those on the left who were toying with them heading back to Labour. Or something.

    We do love His Lordship's Bouncy Castle of Polling though.
  • BaskervilleBaskerville Posts: 391
    O/T
    Does anyone know why the YouGov share price has jumped 6% in the past half hour?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Lets guess who's turn will be to go up/down 5% in next weeks Ashcroft poll.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Here's another one for @Antifrank's venn diagram.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Meanwhile, Labour most seats was last traded at 2.66 (13/8) on Betfair. It's not at all clear to me that anything much has changed in the polling in the last couple of months.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Hah Mogg always great value.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,514
    Do we know who it is who is actually conducting this polling, because it is so much more volatile than any other pollsters out there.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Course you do!

    "I do admire the bravery of CON most seats punters – risking their cash in defiance of the polls and the unreformed electoral system that still favours LAB. "
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,123
    I make both Green and LDs on 7, but may be due to minor rounding quibbles.
  • saddosaddo Posts: 534
    Labour 38 vs Tories 32 in England. Someone smoking something weird here
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Definite Lib Dems in this poll = 2.5%
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    The headline is all about scarey news for the Tory backers, despite the blues being up 2%, but absolutely no mention of the LibDems being down a miserable 2% - pity their poor backers or what!
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Speedy said:

    Clear outlier, it's the reverse outlier of the 6% Tory lead.

    Better to use a polling average.

    Up and down like a fiddler's elbow.

    Sorry but what with this and the arithmetical feckup and the vanity re-badging so we have no idea who is actually doing the polling, LOL.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    Mr. Pulpstar, what's the Mogg said?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Kippers soaring like a house brick.

    Com Res and YG tonight ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    chestnut said:

    Labour 16 clear in SE England. Tories 6 clear of Labour in Scotland.

    There have been quite a few low crosstabs for Labour in Scotland... Mori, ICM...

    Individually they don't mean much BUT....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    The Managing Director of ComRes has confirmed they won't be doing a Daily Poll for the Daily Mail. Just the continuation of their current polls.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,123
    Ishmael_X said:

    Speedy said:

    Clear outlier, it's the reverse outlier of the 6% Tory lead.

    Better to use a polling average.

    Up and down like SUNIL's elbow.

    .
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    saddo said:

    Labour 38 vs Tories 32 in England. Someone smoking something weird here

    This week, I have mostly been polling in Northern Working Mens Clubs....
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    chestnut said:

    Labour 16 clear in SE England. Tories 6 clear of Labour in Scotland.

    There have been quite a few low crosstabs for Labour in Scotland... Mori, ICM...

    Individually they don't mean much BUT....
    Haven't they been more unrealistically high Conservatives?
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    That price on a Labour majority a couple of weeks ago looks even more batshit crazy in light of this poll

    Always assuming one has the same blind faith in this relatively inexperienced, unproven pollster as some clearly do. Personally, I prefer to rely on the tried and tested ones.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited February 2015
    Pulpstar said:

    Hah Mogg always great value.

    Other than The Mogg, there are some astonishingly thick MP's at that session. Austin Mitchell was bang on the money.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    peter_from_putney said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    That price on a Labour majority a couple of weeks ago looks even more batshit crazy in light of this poll

    Always assuming one has the same blind faith in this relatively inexperienced, unproven pollster as some clearly do. Personally, I prefer to rely on the tried and tested ones.
    It's not just Ashcroft though.

    Take Ipsos-Mori, who were very accurate at the last election, are only a sub MOE swing away from a Labour Majority
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,123
    Simple average of Ashcroft and Populus puts Lab 2% ahead, or if you prefer the ELBOW methodology, 1.3% ahead - take your pick :)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Pulpstar, what's the Mogg said?

    Even the most respectable families arrange their families to minimize tax. Got heckled from the Labour benches but obviously refferring to the (Quite proper) Miliband family tax arrangements.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    Tissue_Price said:

    Definite Lib Dems in this poll = 2.5%

    But dont panic...incumbency will see them through
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,040
    chestnut said:

    Labour 16 clear in SE England. Tories 6 clear of Labour in Scotland.

    What parallel universe have I entered?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    Oooh

    https://twitter.com/jameschappers/status/569883143618076672
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,123
    "Super-ELBOW" for all of February's polls so far gives Lab 1.3% lead, with less than a week to go.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    Mr. Pulpstar, a sound point from Mogg.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    chestnut said:

    Labour 16 clear in SE England. Tories 6 clear of Labour in Scotland.

    There have been quite a few low crosstabs for Labour in Scotland... Mori, ICM...

    Individually they don't mean much BUT....
    Haven't they been more unrealistically high Conservatives?
    Depends whereabouts the people in survey have been taken from - could point to a CON gain in the south of Scotland...
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Have we ever seen a tweet along the lines of "New poll by XXX out tonight at 10pm, but to be honest it's pretty boring"
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    OOOOOH The ComRes Daily Mail polls will be Phone polls
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    timmo said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Definite Lib Dems in this poll = 2.5%

    But dont panic...incumbency will see them through
    From Lord Ashcroft's commentary on the polls, this report from a focus group will be more encouraging to the Lib Dems:

    http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2015/02/lord-ashcroft-labours-lead-up-to-four-points-in-my-latest-poll.html

    "In Taunton, most participants knew Jeremy Browne was standing down (“he fell out with Nick Clegg. He was Under-Foreign Secretary or something and got the sack”). He was visible and well known locally, though there was some dispute as to whether this meant he was a good MP or merely “likes having his photo taken”. The Conservative challenger Rebecca Pow was also mentioned by name by several people in the groups – an rare feat for a candidate. Even so, most of those who had voted Lib Dem last time said they would probably do so again, either because they thought the party had done reasonably well in office on things like the tax threshold and free school meals, or because they were simply the local alternative to the Conservatives."
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,123
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Oooh

    https://twitter.com/jameschappers/status/569883143618076672

    Anticipation!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538
    edited February 2015
    Labour 6% ahead in England would probably result in a landslide victory for the party. They'd be regaining seats they lost in 2005. I have to say that seems unlikely. I think this is just one of those odd results you get from time to time.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,127
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Oooh

    https://twitter.com/jameschappers/status/569883143618076672

    Anticipation!
    Another "interesting" poll eh?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    One for conspiracy theorists & those who doubt pollsters. Con Peer @LordAshcroft's poll has Lab ahead. Guardian Group polls have Con ahead
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    "Super-ELBOW" for all of February's polls so far gives Lab 1.3% lead, with less than a week to go.

    How does that compare to January.

    In fact has the level of lead been about that since October?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    antifrank said:

    timmo said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Definite Lib Dems in this poll = 2.5%

    But dont panic...incumbency will see them through
    From Lord Ashcroft's commentary on the polls, this report from a focus group will be more encouraging to the Lib Dems:

    http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2015/02/lord-ashcroft-labours-lead-up-to-four-points-in-my-latest-poll.html

    "In Taunton, most participants knew Jeremy Browne was standing down (“he fell out with Nick Clegg. He was Under-Foreign Secretary or something and got the sack”). He was visible and well known locally, though there was some dispute as to whether this meant he was a good MP or merely “likes having his photo taken”. The Conservative challenger Rebecca Pow was also mentioned by name by several people in the groups – an rare feat for a candidate. Even so, most of those who had voted Lib Dem last time said they would probably do so again, either because they thought the party had done reasonably well in office on things like the tax threshold and free school meals, or because they were simply the local alternative to the Conservatives."
    The counterpoint is perhaps that... Clegg is toast :) (Well probably not but...)
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Like Steve *Interesting* Davies
    rottenborough said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Oooh

    https://twitter.com/jameschappers/status/569883143618076672

    Anticipation!
    Another "interesting" poll eh?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited February 2015
    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    chestnut said:

    Labour 16 clear in SE England. Tories 6 clear of Labour in Scotland.

    There have been quite a few low crosstabs for Labour in Scotland... Mori, ICM...

    Individually they don't mean much BUT....
    Haven't they been more unrealistically high Conservatives?
    Depends whereabouts the people in survey have been taken from - could point to a CON gain in the south of Scotland...
    You could easily get a Con gain in the Borders without any change in the Conservative vote.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    @Antifrank If the Lib Dem vote is going to collapse completely outside their own seats I'd imagine that's good for Labour.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,025
    Surely his Lordship can find a better use for his money than this nonsense. This is about as useful as TNS.

    All that said the Labour majority offers continue to look absurdly tasty.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    antifrank said:

    timmo said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Definite Lib Dems in this poll = 2.5%

    But dont panic...incumbency will see them through
    From Lord Ashcroft's commentary on the polls, this report from a focus group will be more encouraging to the Lib Dems:

    http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2015/02/lord-ashcroft-labours-lead-up-to-four-points-in-my-latest-poll.html

    "In Taunton, most participants knew Jeremy Browne was standing down (“he fell out with Nick Clegg. He was Under-Foreign Secretary or something and got the sack”). He was visible and well known locally, though there was some dispute as to whether this meant he was a good MP or merely “likes having his photo taken”. The Conservative challenger Rebecca Pow was also mentioned by name by several people in the groups – an rare feat for a candidate. Even so, most of those who had voted Lib Dem last time said they would probably do so again, either because they thought the party had done reasonably well in office on things like the tax threshold and free school meals, or because they were simply the local alternative to the Conservatives."
    Hmmm - most may not be enough. Result last time was LD 49 Con 42 Lab 5 UKIP 4 so nothing to squeeze (though some blue bleed to UKIP to be expected).

    And surely a focus group is a bit self-selecting in terms of interest in politics?

    8/13 on the Tories looks like one of the better Con-LD bets out there.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,025
    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    chestnut said:

    Labour 16 clear in SE England. Tories 6 clear of Labour in Scotland.

    There have been quite a few low crosstabs for Labour in Scotland... Mori, ICM...

    Individually they don't mean much BUT....
    Haven't they been more unrealistically high Conservatives?
    Depends whereabouts the people in survey have been taken from - could point to a CON gain in the south of Scotland...
    You could easily get a Con gain in the Borders without any change in the Conservative vote.
    I think that is very likely. Maybe even get 2. And all, as you say, by staying out of the traffic and holding their existing vote.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Pulpstar said:

    @Antifrank If the Lib Dem vote is going to collapse completely outside their own seats I'd imagine that's good for Labour.

    It can't be bad for Labour, but the Greens must be getting their support somewhere, and that's the single likeliest source - erstwhile Lib Dems in seats where the Lib Dems are second or worse.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    Pulpstar said:

    antifrank said:

    timmo said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Definite Lib Dems in this poll = 2.5%

    But dont panic...incumbency will see them through
    From Lord Ashcroft's commentary on the polls, this report from a focus group will be more encouraging to the Lib Dems:

    http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2015/02/lord-ashcroft-labours-lead-up-to-four-points-in-my-latest-poll.html

    "In Taunton, most participants knew Jeremy Browne was standing down (“he fell out with Nick Clegg. He was Under-Foreign Secretary or something and got the sack”). He was visible and well known locally, though there was some dispute as to whether this meant he was a good MP or merely “likes having his photo taken”. The Conservative challenger Rebecca Pow was also mentioned by name by several people in the groups – an rare feat for a candidate. Even so, most of those who had voted Lib Dem last time said they would probably do so again, either because they thought the party had done reasonably well in office on things like the tax threshold and free school meals, or because they were simply the local alternative to the Conservatives."
    The counterpoint is perhaps that... Clegg is toast :) (Well probably not but...)
    The interesting bit of that commentary is the word "most" not all..
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Poll last week with 4 point Tory lead - "outlier"

    Poll this week with 4 point Labour lead - "labour majority".
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Pulpstar said:

    Labour aren't 6% in England.

    The Greens are
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,514
    edited February 2015
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Oooh

    https://twitter.com/jameschappers/status/569883143618076672

    Anticipation!
    With this include the usual quality of ComRes questions like

    "Given the Tories are the big friends of tax dodgers and dodgy banks, do you trust them to look after you?"

    or

    "Given that Labour receive all their money from left wing Marxist Unions, do you think you would trust them with your money?"
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    chestnut said:

    Poll last week with 4 point Tory lead - "outlier"

    Poll this week with 4 point Labour lead - "labour majority".

    Who said that?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,123
    bigjohnowls said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    "Super-ELBOW" for all of February's polls so far gives Lab 1.3% lead, with less than a week to go.

    How does that compare to January.

    In fact has the level of lead been about that since October?
    All-January "Super-ELBOW" = 1.1% lead for the Reds.
    But was a few decimals higher in Autumn 2014.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Tissue_Price said:

    antifrank said:

    timmo said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Definite Lib Dems in this poll = 2.5%

    But dont panic...incumbency will see them through
    From Lord Ashcroft's commentary on the polls, this report from a focus group will be more encouraging to the Lib Dems:

    http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2015/02/lord-ashcroft-labours-lead-up-to-four-points-in-my-latest-poll.html

    "In Taunton, most participants knew Jeremy Browne was standing down (“he fell out with Nick Clegg. He was Under-Foreign Secretary or something and got the sack”). He was visible and well known locally, though there was some dispute as to whether this meant he was a good MP or merely “likes having his photo taken”. The Conservative challenger Rebecca Pow was also mentioned by name by several people in the groups – an rare feat for a candidate. Even so, most of those who had voted Lib Dem last time said they would probably do so again, either because they thought the party had done reasonably well in office on things like the tax threshold and free school meals, or because they were simply the local alternative to the Conservatives."
    Hmmm - most may not be enough. Result last time was LD 49 Con 42 Lab 5 UKIP 4 so nothing to squeeze (though some blue bleed to UKIP to be expected).

    And surely a focus group is a bit self-selecting in terms of interest in politics?

    8/13 on the Tories looks like one of the better Con-LD bets out there.
    Oh I agree. I've backed the Conservatives from evens in this seat and nothing in this commentary puts me off those bets.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    Utterly OT, but I'm bamboozled by e-books that cost more than print editions.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    His Lordship really is toying with us exquisitely.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,568
    I do agree with the general view that this is an outlier (though I think the Opinium poll putting the Tories ahead was too). It's not the subsamples (which are neither here nor there - the poll isn't balanced for subsamples) but I don't believe there has been an overall quantum leap. Labour is IMO slightly ahead, has been since October, and probably will be until May.

    I do think UKIP is off the boil and that it's not benefiting the Tories, net, because it's the less committed ones who switched recently from Labour who are drifting back in greater numbers. Ironically, perhaps Cameron needs a debate giving Farage more airtime to stop the rot.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    House seems to broadly agree on this anti-ISIS stuff. Difficult not to I guess !
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,386
    Broken, sleazy fruitcakes on the slide...

    [jk]
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538
    It's very unusual for the Lab/Green score to exceed the Con/UKIP score, in any poll. I imagine that Lord Ashcroft picked up an unusually left-wing sample.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    "Super-ELBOW" for all of February's polls so far gives Lab 1.3% lead, with less than a week to go.

    How does that compare to January.

    In fact has the level of lead been about that since October?
    All-January "Super-ELBOW" = 1.1% lead for the Reds.
    But was a few decimals higher in Autumn 2014.
    There is still March and April for Rod Crosby January crossover
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    This is the highest combined Con + Lab share with Lord Ashcroft since the 13th of July, when it was also 68, as it is today.

    Incidentally, the weeks either side then, it was 61 and 62.

    Last week it was 61.

  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    Nah. Try again Lord A.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Offtopic - Hope everyone is feeling better than me today, sick & in bed :(
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    antifrank said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    antifrank said:

    timmo said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Definite Lib Dems in this poll = 2.5%

    But dont panic...incumbency will see them through
    From Lord Ashcroft's commentary on the polls, this report from a focus group will be more encouraging to the Lib Dems:

    http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2015/02/lord-ashcroft-labours-lead-up-to-four-points-in-my-latest-poll.html

    "In Taunton, most participants knew Jeremy Browne was standing down (“he fell out with Nick Clegg. He was Under-Foreign Secretary or something and got the sack”). He was visible and well known locally, though there was some dispute as to whether this meant he was a good MP or merely “likes having his photo taken”. The Conservative challenger Rebecca Pow was also mentioned by name by several people in the groups – an rare feat for a candidate. Even so, most of those who had voted Lib Dem last time said they would probably do so again, either because they thought the party had done reasonably well in office on things like the tax threshold and free school meals, or because they were simply the local alternative to the Conservatives."
    Hmmm - most may not be enough. Result last time was LD 49 Con 42 Lab 5 UKIP 4 so nothing to squeeze (though some blue bleed to UKIP to be expected).

    And surely a focus group is a bit self-selecting in terms of interest in politics?

    8/13 on the Tories looks like one of the better Con-LD bets out there.
    Oh I agree. I've backed the Conservatives from evens in this seat and nothing in this commentary puts me off those bets.
    A LD standing down is gold dust for their opposition, frequently providing a once-in-a-generation chance to rid a cell of the yellow peril.

    The only two seats where newbie Lib Dems are favourite are Bath and Hazel Grove. The latter is intriguing but tough to recommend a bet at the prices.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,466
    antifrank said:

    Meanwhile, Labour most seats was last traded at 2.66 (13/8) on Betfair. It's not at all clear to me that anything much has changed in the polling in the last couple of months.

    That's about how I see, Franky.

    Over the last week or so I had started to convince myself we were seeing a small but definite improvement for the Tories. It wasn't the occasional very good poll that caught my attention, but rather the way the Labour leads were pretty limited to three points at most and were mostly ones and twos. Now we get a four.

    Back to square one.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Big difference with ComRes on immigration.

    Ashcroft: 31% (UKIP best on immigration)
    ComRes: 40% (UKIP best on immigration)

    twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/566581989059600384

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/02/ashcroft-national-poll-con-32-lab-36-lib-dem-7-ukip-11-green-8/
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Pulpstar said:

    House seems to broadly agree on this anti-ISIS stuff. Difficult not to I guess !

    That's why we need more Green representation in Parliament.
  • JunglelandJungleland Posts: 40
    Just released a market for 'turnout' on sporting index for anyone interested.

    Interesting poll, not just this but the last 20 or so. I make Tories around 54% chance of most seats, big lay at current bf prices.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    Mr. Pulpstar, hope you recover soon.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    BenM said:

    Nah. Try again Lord A.

    Am worried about my Kippers "2 Mps" bet - should I go for a saver on "1" ?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    edited February 2015
    I think Lord Ashcroft has helped create a topic of unity amongst all PBers that his national polling is a bit volatile.

    The only time we've had unity amongst all PBers is that

    1) Jade Dernbach is the worst pie thrower to ever play for England

    2) Sion Simon's we cannot be killed article was the worst political prediction ever.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,514
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I think Lord Ashcroft has helped create a topic of unity amongst all PBers that his national polling is a bit volatile.

    The only time we've had unity amongst all PBers is that

    1) Jade Dernbach is the worst pie thrower to every play for England

    2) Sion Simon's we cannot be killed was the worst political prediction ever.

    Dernbach now has competition on the world stage with pie eater Malinga...oh wait you said pie thrower, no Malinga doesn't throw any pies anyway by the looks on him now.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,466
    bigjohnowls said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    "Super-ELBOW" for all of February's polls so far gives Lab 1.3% lead, with less than a week to go.

    How does that compare to January.

    In fact has the level of lead been about that since October?
    All-January "Super-ELBOW" = 1.1% lead for the Reds.
    But was a few decimals higher in Autumn 2014.
    There is still March and April for Rod Crosby January crossover
    I thought January was the Month of Crossover. And February is the Month of Pulling Away.

    I fear for young Sunil if we don't get Crossover soon.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    NickPalmer said:

    I do agree with the general view that this is an outlier (though I think the Opinium poll putting the Tories ahead was too). It's not the subsamples (which are neither here nor there - the poll isn't balanced for subsamples) but I don't believe there has been an overall quantum leap. Labour is IMO slightly ahead, has been since October, and probably will be until May.

    I do think UKIP is off the boil and that it's not benefiting the Tories, net, because it's the less committed ones who switched recently from Labour who are drifting back in greater numbers. Ironically, perhaps Cameron needs a debate giving Farage more airtime to stop the rot.

    To be an outlier you have to outlie from an otherwise consistent pattern. This doesn't even make it as an outlier.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @AndrewSparrow: Ed Balls v George Osborne on HSBC - Verdict - http://t.co/nDgCfTSzt2 - Osborne saw off Balls with ease
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,568
    The really frightening LibDem finding is that two thirds of their rump support say they may yet vote differently (vs 40ish for the other parties).
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    TGOHF said:

    BenM said:

    Nah. Try again Lord A.

    Am worried about my Kippers "2 Mps" bet - should I go for a saver on "1" ?
    11/2 with Ladbrokes that UKIP get under 1.5 MPs.

    I'm not recommending this bet, mind.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538
    BenM said:

    Nah. Try again Lord A.

    We shouldn't dismiss it outright. If Labour are at 33% on average, you should expect to see them occasionally hitting 36/37% in a poll.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,466
    @Nick Palmer

    "Ironically, perhaps Cameron needs a debate giving Farage more airtime to stop the rot. "

    That's mischievous, Nick!

    He needs a debate with Farage like he needs a second hole in his rectum. Fortunately there's little chance of either.

    Nice try though. :-)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    I don't want to get into a flame war about Peak Kipper or not, but I am right in thinking, UKIP haven't been as visible as much recently, whilst the big two kick lumps out of each other.

    So we've seen UKIP going down, and the big two on the up.

    Given the format of the debates was the Cameron v Miliband head to head to be the final debate, a week before election day, perhaps UKIP have dodged a bullet with the likelihood of no debates.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,386
    So we've had:

    Populus - Con/Lab Tied

    The Good Lord Amen - Lab Lead

    My guess for next two polls:

    YouGov - 1-2% Lab Lead

    ComRes - 1-2% Con Lead

This discussion has been closed.