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The weekly Ashcroft phone poll continues to surprise us. From being, until last week, the only pollster not to have recorded a LAB lead in 2015 the latest, published at 4pm, has the very best figures for LAB in a phone poll since the Guardian’s ICM poll in mid-December.

Read the full story here

TheScreamingEagles

Lord Ashcroft poll

Con 32 (+2) Lab 36 (+5) LD 7 (-2) UKIP 11 (-5) Greens 8 (nc)

Highest Lab score with Lord A since July, Lowest ever UKIP score with the Good Lord

Clear Outlier/Gold Standard/Lead Standard/Peak Kipper

Delete as appropriate

TheScreamingEagles

That price on a Labour majority a couple of weeks ago looks even more batshit crazy in light of this poll

bigjohnowls

LARGER (Lord Ashcroft Randomly Generated Election Result) is a complete joke

Speedy

Clear outlier, it's the reverse outlier of the 6% Tory lead.

Better to use a polling average.

SimonStClare

His Lordship appears to have been reunited with his pogo stick.

FrancisUrquhart

Up and down like a hookers draws as usual.

saddo

Is the good Lord's poll becoming the Angus Reid poll of this election?

Its up and down like t' whore's drawers

Morris_Dancer

Boing.

FPT: Mr. Urquhart, you ought to be ashamed of yourself, posting that.

You missed off the apostrophe. And it's 'drawers'.

Sunil_Prasannan

Where's yer crossover now?

Alistair

TheScreamingEagles said:

That price on a Labour majority looks even more batshit crazy in light of this poll

The price (an constant fluctuations) on the Indyref outcome confused the heck out of me. By comparison GE15 betting means I need a new word to describe hyper-confusion.

TheScreamingEagles

But what, I feel you asking, if each of the leaders were a supermarket? Four our groups, the answer to this important question was that Nigel Farage would be Aldi: “you know what you’re getting. Down to earth. Anyone can shop there.” Nick Clegg would be the Co-op, with “all its nice fair trade values” (if this sounds like a compliment, the tone of voice suggested it was not intended as one). David Cameron would inevitably be Waitrose, but “pretending to be Sainsbury’s”. Ed Miliband, by the same token, would “go to Waitrose but with his Lidl bag-for-life to carry round afterwards.”

isam

Who has been betting heavily on ukip to get most seats?

Pulpstar

TheScreamingEagles said:

That price on a Labour majority looks even more batshit crazy in light of this poll

TheScreamingEagles said:

Lord Ashcroft poll

Con 32 (+2) Lab 36 (+5) LD 7 (-2) UKIP 11 (-5) Greens 8 (nc)

Highest Lab score with Lord A since July, Lowest ever UKIP score with the Good Lord

Clear Outlier/Gold Standard/Lead Standard/Peak Kipper One poll to be considered as part of the trend showing Labour and the Conservatives roughly equal, perhaps Labour slightly ahead.

Delete as appropriate

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Alistair, ultra-confusion?

Richard_Nabavi

I'm pretty sure UKIP haven't mislaid over 30% of their supporters in the last week, so I think we can file this one under 'another volatile Ashcroft poll'.

TheScreamingEagles

saddo said:

Is the good Lord's poll becoming the Angus Reid poll of this election?

Its up and down like t' whore's drawers

The whores I know, don't wear any drawers.

Pulpstar

Labour aren't 6% in England.

chestnut

Labour 16 clear in SE England. Tories 6 clear of Labour in Scotland.

MarqueeMark

"UKIP: The First 100 Days" has resulted in all those on the left who were toying with them heading back to Labour. Or something.

We do love His Lordship's Bouncy Castle of Polling though.

Baskerville

O/T
Does anyone know why the YouGov share price has jumped 6% in the past half hour?

Speedy

Lets guess who's turn will be to go up/down 5% in next weeks Ashcroft poll.

Pulpstar

Here's another one for @Antifrank's venn diagram.

AlastairMeeks

Meanwhile, Labour most seats was last traded at 2.66 (13/8) on Betfair. It's not at all clear to me that anything much has changed in the polling in the last couple of months.

Pulpstar

Hah Mogg always great value.

FrancisUrquhart

Do we know who it is who is actually conducting this polling, because it is so much more volatile than any other pollsters out there.

Scrapheap_as_was

Course you do!

"I do admire the bravery of CON most seats punters – risking their cash in defiance of the polls and the unreformed electoral system that still favours LAB. "

Sunil_Prasannan

I make both Green and LDs on 7, but may be due to minor rounding quibbles.

saddo

Labour 38 vs Tories 32 in England. Someone smoking something weird here

Tissue_Price

Definite Lib Dems in this poll = 2.5%

peter_from_putney

The headline is all about scarey news for the Tory backers, despite the blues being up 2%, but absolutely no mention of the LibDems being down a miserable 2% - pity their poor backers or what!

Ishmael_X

Speedy said:

Clear outlier, it's the reverse outlier of the 6% Tory lead.

Better to use a polling average.

Up and down like a fiddler's elbow.

Sorry but what with this and the arithmetical feckup and the vanity re-badging so we have no idea who is actually doing the polling, LOL.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Pulpstar, what's the Mogg said?

TGOHF

Kippers soaring like a house brick.

Com Res and YG tonight ?

Pulpstar

chestnut said:

Labour 16 clear in SE England. Tories 6 clear of Labour in Scotland.

There have been quite a few low crosstabs for Labour in Scotland... Mori, ICM...

Individually they don't mean much BUT....

TheScreamingEagles

The Managing Director of ComRes has confirmed they won't be doing a Daily Poll for the Daily Mail. Just the continuation of their current polls.

Sunil_Prasannan

Ishmael_X said:

Speedy said:

Clear outlier, it's the reverse outlier of the 6% Tory lead.

Better to use a polling average.

Up and down like SUNIL's elbow.

.

MarqueeMark

saddo said:

Labour 38 vs Tories 32 in England. Someone smoking something weird here

This week, I have mostly been polling in Northern Working Mens Clubs....

Alistair

Pulpstar said:

chestnut said:

Labour 16 clear in SE England. Tories 6 clear of Labour in Scotland.

There have been quite a few low crosstabs for Labour in Scotland... Mori, ICM...

Individually they don't mean much BUT....

Haven't they been more unrealistically high Conservatives?

peter_from_putney

TheScreamingEagles said:

That price on a Labour majority a couple of weeks ago looks even more batshit crazy in light of this poll

Always assuming one has the same blind faith in this relatively inexperienced, unproven pollster as some clearly do. Personally, I prefer to rely on the tried and tested ones.

TheWatcher

Pulpstar said:

Hah Mogg always great value.

Other than The Mogg, there are some astonishingly thick MP's at that session. Austin Mitchell was bang on the money.

TheScreamingEagles

peter_from_putney said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

That price on a Labour majority a couple of weeks ago looks even more batshit crazy in light of this poll

Always assuming one has the same blind faith in this relatively inexperienced, unproven pollster as some clearly do. Personally, I prefer to rely on the tried and tested ones.

It's not just Ashcroft though.

Take Ipsos-Mori, who were very accurate at the last election, are only a sub MOE swing away from a Labour Majority

Sunil_Prasannan

Simple average of Ashcroft and Populus puts Lab 2% ahead, or if you prefer the ELBOW methodology, 1.3% ahead - take your pick

Pulpstar

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Pulpstar, what's the Mogg said?

Even the most respectable families arrange their families to minimize tax. Got heckled from the Labour benches but obviously refferring to the (Quite proper) Miliband family tax arrangements.

timmo

Tissue_Price said:

Definite Lib Dems in this poll = 2.5%

But dont panic...incumbency will see them through

RobD

chestnut said:

Labour 16 clear in SE England. Tories 6 clear of Labour in Scotland.

What parallel universe have I entered?

TheScreamingEagles

Oooh

https://twitter.com/jameschappers/status/569883143618076672

Sunil_Prasannan

"Super-ELBOW" for all of February's polls so far gives Lab 1.3% lead, with less than a week to go.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Pulpstar, a sound point from Mogg.

Pulpstar

Alistair said:

Pulpstar said:

chestnut said:

Labour 16 clear in SE England. Tories 6 clear of Labour in Scotland.

There have been quite a few low crosstabs for Labour in Scotland... Mori, ICM...

Individually they don't mean much BUT....

Haven't they been more unrealistically high Conservatives?

Depends whereabouts the people in survey have been taken from - could point to a CON gain in the south of Scotland...

Richard_Nabavi

Have we ever seen a tweet along the lines of "New poll by XXX out tonight at 10pm, but to be honest it's pretty boring"

TheScreamingEagles

OOOOOH The ComRes Daily Mail polls will be Phone polls

AlastairMeeks

timmo said:

Tissue_Price said:

Definite Lib Dems in this poll = 2.5%

But dont panic...incumbency will see them through

From Lord Ashcroft's commentary on the polls, this report from a focus group will be more encouraging to the Lib Dems:

http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2015/02/lord-ashcroft-labours-lead-up-to-four-points-in-my-latest-poll.html

"In Taunton, most participants knew Jeremy Browne was standing down (“he fell out with Nick Clegg. He was Under-Foreign Secretary or something and got the sack”). He was visible and well known locally, though there was some dispute as to whether this meant he was a good MP or merely “likes having his photo taken”. The Conservative challenger Rebecca Pow was also mentioned by name by several people in the groups – an rare feat for a candidate. Even so, most of those who had voted Lib Dem last time said they would probably do so again, either because they thought the party had done reasonably well in office on things like the tax threshold and free school meals, or because they were simply the local alternative to the Conservatives."

Sunil_Prasannan

TheScreamingEagles said:

Oooh

https://twitter.com/jameschappers/status/569883143618076672

Anticipation!

Sean_F

Labour 6% ahead in England would probably result in a landslide victory for the party. They'd be regaining seats they lost in 2005. I have to say that seems unlikely. I think this is just one of those odd results you get from time to time.

rottenborough

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Oooh

https://twitter.com/jameschappers/status/569883143618076672

Anticipation!

Another "interesting" poll eh?

TheScreamingEagles

One for conspiracy theorists & those who doubt pollsters. Con Peer @LordAshcroft's poll has Lab ahead. Guardian Group polls have Con ahead

bigjohnowls

Sunil_Prasannan said:

"Super-ELBOW" for all of February's polls so far gives Lab 1.3% lead, with less than a week to go.

How does that compare to January.

In fact has the level of lead been about that since October?

Pulpstar

antifrank said:

timmo said:

Tissue_Price said:

Definite Lib Dems in this poll = 2.5%

But dont panic...incumbency will see them through

From Lord Ashcroft's commentary on the polls, this report from a focus group will be more encouraging to the Lib Dems:

http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2015/02/lord-ashcroft-labours-lead-up-to-four-points-in-my-latest-poll.html

"In Taunton, most participants knew Jeremy Browne was standing down (“he fell out with Nick Clegg. He was Under-Foreign Secretary or something and got the sack”). He was visible and well known locally, though there was some dispute as to whether this meant he was a good MP or merely “likes having his photo taken”. The Conservative challenger Rebecca Pow was also mentioned by name by several people in the groups – an rare feat for a candidate. Even so, most of those who had voted Lib Dem last time said they would probably do so again, either because they thought the party had done reasonably well in office on things like the tax threshold and free school meals, or because they were simply the local alternative to the Conservatives."

The counterpoint is perhaps that... Clegg is toast (Well probably not but...)

Plato

Like Steve *Interesting* Davies

rottenborough said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Oooh

https://twitter.com/jameschappers/status/569883143618076672

Anticipation!

Another "interesting" poll eh?

Alistair

Pulpstar said:

Alistair said:

Pulpstar said:

chestnut said:

Labour 16 clear in SE England. Tories 6 clear of Labour in Scotland.

There have been quite a few low crosstabs for Labour in Scotland... Mori, ICM...

Individually they don't mean much BUT....

Haven't they been more unrealistically high Conservatives?

Depends whereabouts the people in survey have been taken from - could point to a CON gain in the south of Scotland...

You could easily get a Con gain in the Borders without any change in the Conservative vote.

Pulpstar

@Antifrank If the Lib Dem vote is going to collapse completely outside their own seats I'd imagine that's good for Labour.

DavidL

Surely his Lordship can find a better use for his money than this nonsense. This is about as useful as TNS.

All that said the Labour majority offers continue to look absurdly tasty.

Tissue_Price

antifrank said:

timmo said:

Tissue_Price said:

Definite Lib Dems in this poll = 2.5%

But dont panic...incumbency will see them through

From Lord Ashcroft's commentary on the polls, this report from a focus group will be more encouraging to the Lib Dems:

http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2015/02/lord-ashcroft-labours-lead-up-to-four-points-in-my-latest-poll.html

"In Taunton, most participants knew Jeremy Browne was standing down (“he fell out with Nick Clegg. He was Under-Foreign Secretary or something and got the sack”). He was visible and well known locally, though there was some dispute as to whether this meant he was a good MP or merely “likes having his photo taken”. The Conservative challenger Rebecca Pow was also mentioned by name by several people in the groups – an rare feat for a candidate. Even so, most of those who had voted Lib Dem last time said they would probably do so again, either because they thought the party had done reasonably well in office on things like the tax threshold and free school meals, or because they were simply the local alternative to the Conservatives."

Hmmm - most may not be enough. Result last time was LD 49 Con 42 Lab 5 UKIP 4 so nothing to squeeze (though some blue bleed to UKIP to be expected).

And surely a focus group is a bit self-selecting in terms of interest in politics?

8/13 on the Tories looks like one of the better Con-LD bets out there.

DavidL

Alistair said:

Pulpstar said:

Alistair said:

Pulpstar said:

chestnut said:

Labour 16 clear in SE England. Tories 6 clear of Labour in Scotland.

There have been quite a few low crosstabs for Labour in Scotland... Mori, ICM...

Individually they don't mean much BUT....

Haven't they been more unrealistically high Conservatives?

Depends whereabouts the people in survey have been taken from - could point to a CON gain in the south of Scotland...

You could easily get a Con gain in the Borders without any change in the Conservative vote.

I think that is very likely. Maybe even get 2. And all, as you say, by staying out of the traffic and holding their existing vote.

AlastairMeeks

Pulpstar said:

@Antifrank If the Lib Dem vote is going to collapse completely outside their own seats I'd imagine that's good for Labour.

It can't be bad for Labour, but the Greens must be getting their support somewhere, and that's the single likeliest source - erstwhile Lib Dems in seats where the Lib Dems are second or worse.

timmo

Pulpstar said:

antifrank said:

timmo said:

Tissue_Price said:

Definite Lib Dems in this poll = 2.5%

But dont panic...incumbency will see them through

From Lord Ashcroft's commentary on the polls, this report from a focus group will be more encouraging to the Lib Dems:

http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2015/02/lord-ashcroft-labours-lead-up-to-four-points-in-my-latest-poll.html

"In Taunton, most participants knew Jeremy Browne was standing down (“he fell out with Nick Clegg. He was Under-Foreign Secretary or something and got the sack”). He was visible and well known locally, though there was some dispute as to whether this meant he was a good MP or merely “likes having his photo taken”. The Conservative challenger Rebecca Pow was also mentioned by name by several people in the groups – an rare feat for a candidate. Even so, most of those who had voted Lib Dem last time said they would probably do so again, either because they thought the party had done reasonably well in office on things like the tax threshold and free school meals, or because they were simply the local alternative to the Conservatives."

The counterpoint is perhaps that... Clegg is toast (Well probably not but...)

The interesting bit of that commentary is the word "most" not all..

chestnut

Poll last week with 4 point Tory lead - "outlier"

Poll this week with 4 point Labour lead - "labour majority".

bigjohnowls

Pulpstar said:

Labour aren't 6% in England.

The Greens are

FrancisUrquhart

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Oooh

https://twitter.com/jameschappers/status/569883143618076672

Anticipation!

With this include the usual quality of ComRes questions like

"Given the Tories are the big friends of tax dodgers and dodgy banks, do you trust them to look after you?"

or

"Given that Labour receive all their money from left wing Marxist Unions, do you think you would trust them with your money?"

bigjohnowls

chestnut said:

Poll last week with 4 point Tory lead - "outlier"

Poll this week with 4 point Labour lead - "labour majority".

Who said that?

Sunil_Prasannan

bigjohnowls said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

"Super-ELBOW" for all of February's polls so far gives Lab 1.3% lead, with less than a week to go.

How does that compare to January.

In fact has the level of lead been about that since October?

All-January "Super-ELBOW" = 1.1% lead for the Reds.
But was a few decimals higher in Autumn 2014.

AlastairMeeks

Tissue_Price said:

antifrank said:

timmo said:

Tissue_Price said:

Definite Lib Dems in this poll = 2.5%

But dont panic...incumbency will see them through

From Lord Ashcroft's commentary on the polls, this report from a focus group will be more encouraging to the Lib Dems:

http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2015/02/lord-ashcroft-labours-lead-up-to-four-points-in-my-latest-poll.html

"In Taunton, most participants knew Jeremy Browne was standing down (“he fell out with Nick Clegg. He was Under-Foreign Secretary or something and got the sack”). He was visible and well known locally, though there was some dispute as to whether this meant he was a good MP or merely “likes having his photo taken”. The Conservative challenger Rebecca Pow was also mentioned by name by several people in the groups – an rare feat for a candidate. Even so, most of those who had voted Lib Dem last time said they would probably do so again, either because they thought the party had done reasonably well in office on things like the tax threshold and free school meals, or because they were simply the local alternative to the Conservatives."

Hmmm - most may not be enough. Result last time was LD 49 Con 42 Lab 5 UKIP 4 so nothing to squeeze (though some blue bleed to UKIP to be expected).

And surely a focus group is a bit self-selecting in terms of interest in politics?

8/13 on the Tories looks like one of the better Con-LD bets out there.

Oh I agree. I've backed the Conservatives from evens in this seat and nothing in this commentary puts me off those bets.

Morris_Dancer

Utterly OT, but I'm bamboozled by e-books that cost more than print editions.

Danny565

His Lordship really is toying with us exquisitely.

NickPalmer

I do agree with the general view that this is an outlier (though I think the Opinium poll putting the Tories ahead was too). It's not the subsamples (which are neither here nor there - the poll isn't balanced for subsamples) but I don't believe there has been an overall quantum leap. Labour is IMO slightly ahead, has been since October, and probably will be until May.

I do think UKIP is off the boil and that it's not benefiting the Tories, net, because it's the less committed ones who switched recently from Labour who are drifting back in greater numbers. Ironically, perhaps Cameron needs a debate giving Farage more airtime to stop the rot.

Pulpstar

House seems to broadly agree on this anti-ISIS stuff. Difficult not to I guess !

GIN1138

Broken, sleazy fruitcakes on the slide...

[jk]

Sean_F

It's very unusual for the Lab/Green score to exceed the Con/UKIP score, in any poll. I imagine that Lord Ashcroft picked up an unusually left-wing sample.

bigjohnowls

Sunil_Prasannan said:

bigjohnowls said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

"Super-ELBOW" for all of February's polls so far gives Lab 1.3% lead, with less than a week to go.

How does that compare to January.

In fact has the level of lead been about that since October?

All-January "Super-ELBOW" = 1.1% lead for the Reds.
But was a few decimals higher in Autumn 2014.

There is still March and April for Rod Crosby January crossover

TheScreamingEagles

This is the highest combined Con + Lab share with Lord Ashcroft since the 13th of July, when it was also 68, as it is today.

Incidentally, the weeks either side then, it was 61 and 62.

Last week it was 61.

BenM

Nah. Try again Lord A.

Pulpstar

Offtopic - Hope everyone is feeling better than me today, sick & in bed

Tissue_Price

antifrank said:

Tissue_Price said:

antifrank said:

timmo said:

Tissue_Price said:

Definite Lib Dems in this poll = 2.5%

But dont panic...incumbency will see them through

From Lord Ashcroft's commentary on the polls, this report from a focus group will be more encouraging to the Lib Dems:

http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2015/02/lord-ashcroft-labours-lead-up-to-four-points-in-my-latest-poll.html

"In Taunton, most participants knew Jeremy Browne was standing down (“he fell out with Nick Clegg. He was Under-Foreign Secretary or something and got the sack”). He was visible and well known locally, though there was some dispute as to whether this meant he was a good MP or merely “likes having his photo taken”. The Conservative challenger Rebecca Pow was also mentioned by name by several people in the groups – an rare feat for a candidate. Even so, most of those who had voted Lib Dem last time said they would probably do so again, either because they thought the party had done reasonably well in office on things like the tax threshold and free school meals, or because they were simply the local alternative to the Conservatives."

Hmmm - most may not be enough. Result last time was LD 49 Con 42 Lab 5 UKIP 4 so nothing to squeeze (though some blue bleed to UKIP to be expected).

And surely a focus group is a bit self-selecting in terms of interest in politics?

8/13 on the Tories looks like one of the better Con-LD bets out there.

Oh I agree. I've backed the Conservatives from evens in this seat and nothing in this commentary puts me off those bets.

A LD standing down is gold dust for their opposition, frequently providing a once-in-a-generation chance to rid a cell of the yellow peril.

The only two seats where newbie Lib Dems are favourite are Bath and Hazel Grove. The latter is intriguing but tough to recommend a bet at the prices.

Peter_the_Punter

antifrank said:

Meanwhile, Labour most seats was last traded at 2.66 (13/8) on Betfair. It's not at all clear to me that anything much has changed in the polling in the last couple of months.

That's about how I see, Franky.

Over the last week or so I had started to convince myself we were seeing a small but definite improvement for the Tories. It wasn't the occasional very good poll that caught my attention, but rather the way the Labour leads were pretty limited to three points at most and were mostly ones and twos. Now we get a four.

Back to square one.

anotherDave

Big difference with ComRes on immigration.

Ashcroft: 31% (UKIP best on immigration)
ComRes: 40% (UKIP best on immigration)

twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/566581989059600384

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/02/ashcroft-national-poll-con-32-lab-36-lib-dem-7-ukip-11-green-8/

Tissue_Price

Pulpstar said:

House seems to broadly agree on this anti-ISIS stuff. Difficult not to I guess !

That's why we need more Green representation in Parliament.

Jungleland

Just released a market for 'turnout' on sporting index for anyone interested.

Interesting poll, not just this but the last 20 or so. I make Tories around 54% chance of most seats, big lay at current bf prices.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Pulpstar, hope you recover soon.

TGOHF

BenM said:

Nah. Try again Lord A.

Am worried about my Kippers "2 Mps" bet - should I go for a saver on "1" ?

TheScreamingEagles

I think Lord Ashcroft has helped create a topic of unity amongst all PBers that his national polling is a bit volatile.

The only time we've had unity amongst all PBers is that

1) Jade Dernbach is the worst pie thrower to ever play for England

2) Sion Simon's we cannot be killed article was the worst political prediction ever.

FrancisUrquhart

TheScreamingEagles said:

I think Lord Ashcroft has helped create a topic of unity amongst all PBers that his national polling is a bit volatile.

The only time we've had unity amongst all PBers is that

1) Jade Dernbach is the worst pie thrower to every play for England

2) Sion Simon's we cannot be killed was the worst political prediction ever.

Dernbach now has competition on the world stage with pie eater Malinga...oh wait you said pie thrower, no Malinga doesn't throw any pies anyway by the looks on him now.

Peter_the_Punter

bigjohnowls said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

bigjohnowls said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

"Super-ELBOW" for all of February's polls so far gives Lab 1.3% lead, with less than a week to go.

How does that compare to January.

In fact has the level of lead been about that since October?

All-January "Super-ELBOW" = 1.1% lead for the Reds.
But was a few decimals higher in Autumn 2014.

There is still March and April for Rod Crosby January crossover

I thought January was the Month of Crossover. And February is the Month of Pulling Away.

I fear for young Sunil if we don't get Crossover soon.

Ishmael_X

NickPalmer said:

I do agree with the general view that this is an outlier (though I think the Opinium poll putting the Tories ahead was too). It's not the subsamples (which are neither here nor there - the poll isn't balanced for subsamples) but I don't believe there has been an overall quantum leap. Labour is IMO slightly ahead, has been since October, and probably will be until May.

I do think UKIP is off the boil and that it's not benefiting the Tories, net, because it's the less committed ones who switched recently from Labour who are drifting back in greater numbers. Ironically, perhaps Cameron needs a debate giving Farage more airtime to stop the rot.

To be an outlier you have to outlie from an otherwise consistent pattern. This doesn't even make it as an outlier.

Scott_P

@AndrewSparrow: Ed Balls v George Osborne on HSBC - Verdict - http://t.co/nDgCfTSzt2 - Osborne saw off Balls with ease

NickPalmer

The really frightening LibDem finding is that two thirds of their rump support say they may yet vote differently (vs 40ish for the other parties).

AlastairMeeks

TGOHF said:

BenM said:

Nah. Try again Lord A.

Am worried about my Kippers "2 Mps" bet - should I go for a saver on "1" ?

11/2 with Ladbrokes that UKIP get under 1.5 MPs.

I'm not recommending this bet, mind.

Sean_F

BenM said:

Nah. Try again Lord A.

We shouldn't dismiss it outright. If Labour are at 33% on average, you should expect to see them occasionally hitting 36/37% in a poll.

Peter_the_Punter

@Nick Palmer

"Ironically, perhaps Cameron needs a debate giving Farage more airtime to stop the rot. "

That's mischievous, Nick!

He needs a debate with Farage like he needs a second hole in his rectum. Fortunately there's little chance of either.

Nice try though. :-)

TheScreamingEagles

I don't want to get into a flame war about Peak Kipper or not, but I am right in thinking, UKIP haven't been as visible as much recently, whilst the big two kick lumps out of each other.

So we've seen UKIP going down, and the big two on the up.

Given the format of the debates was the Cameron v Miliband head to head to be the final debate, a week before election day, perhaps UKIP have dodged a bullet with the likelihood of no debates.

GIN1138

So we've had:

Populus - Con/Lab Tied

The Good Lord Amen - Lab Lead

My guess for next two polls:

YouGov - 1-2% Lab Lead

ComRes - 1-2% Con Lead