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Burnham Love and Weseltine Streeting – politicalbetting.com

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  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 5,386
    Sandpit said:

    Phil said:

    Phil said:

    There’s no question that Linux requires a tad more handholding to this day, but the way Microsoft has fouled up Windows makes that less of a downside than it used to be. Everyone used to assume that the infamous “year of the Linux desktop” would require Linux to improve beyond all recognition to make the switch a no brainer. Instead Microsoft decided to stab themselves in the front and make such a mess of Windows that people are voluntarily switching to Linux despite the flaws.

    The issue with Linux on the desktop is what I call the showstopper problem. You install Linux, it looks great and works fine for lots of stuff - then you try something that was trivial and Windows and it just won't work no matter what you do.

    I've been running Linux on at least one PC for over 20 years, and actually did some kernel development in the early 2000s, but I'm still on Windows for my main desktop precisely because of this.

    I switched the PC I use for 3D printing to Linux and had to go back to Windows because Ubuntu couldn't run the Linux version of the slicer software (OrcaSlicer - a modern open-source package). The provided appimage package didn't work at all and building from source errored out.

    It was quicker to re-install Windows, download the EXE and it just worked.

    I suspect the only area where Linux will actually take a bite out of Windows is gaming, thanks to all the hard work done by Valve on Win32/64 compatibility.
    Which part doesn't work? There's a Flatpak package and that does run at least (I just tried it).
    This was about six months ago, the Flatpak wasn't available then. Just an appimage and source. The appimage wouldn’t even open on Ubuntu.
    This may be teaching grandmother to suck eggs, but did you mark the AppImage download file as an executable binary? The browser won’t do it, for obvious security related reasons.

    Also, are you really sure you downloaded from the official website? See my previous comment...
    @ydoethur this conversation above is why you should just get a Mac ;-)
    I have a Mac mini in addition to my Linux setup, but I only ever use it to build iOS apps (because Apple forces you to use an Apple device to do so). I find the Mac UI quite unintuitive compared to both Windows and Ubuntu, but perhaps that's just because of my inexperience with it.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 51,558

    kinabalu said:

    Phil said:

    kinabalu said:

    Phil said:

    kinabalu said:

    Phil said:

    NB. Since we’re talking jobs I am very happy to report that the three month contract my eldest was given by the local metallurgy outfit has just been converted to a full time role!

    The resulting levels of parental relief are probably palpable from orbit.

    That's great. It's a real worry when they are struggling just to get an 'in'. My son after uni and law conversion could find nothing for almost a year. This was back in 2011. Eventually he got a temp thing at the BoE. It was nothing special, not with graduate trainee status or anything, but it got him going and he's parleyed it up into a good career. Doing very well now.
    It is incredibly tough when you’re applying and applying and getting no-where. If you don’t have a personal contact somewhere the flood of AI-driven applications is making recruitment a nightmare for both sides from what I hear.
    Yes, contacts are incredibly important and you're less likely to have them when you're young and getting started.
    It will come as no surprise that my eldest’s job was obtained because we knew people working at the company. The fact that they have been incredibly positive about him & have converted his three month contract into a full time grad role is down to his own hard work & commitment, but he wouldn’t have had the opportunity to prove himself had we not been able to open that door for him.

    If you don’t have contacts then the current job market is incredibly difficult.
    Ditto my son. He got the heads up on that temp vacancy from a mate who already worked there.
    Not mine. I have no contacts whatsoever in the world of finance, so he had to do it all himself. He was very proactive about finding an internship and got two offers of places. He accepted the one that paid less but had a better conversion rate (the proportion of interns offered a job after graduation), a strategy that paid off in the end.
    Nice for that to be rewarded. He's possibly navigated the hardest part of his working life in getting it started 🙂
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 25,017
    rkrkrk said:

    eek said:

    Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander is expected to confirm that HS2 trains will run slower than initially planned, in a bid to cut costs

    So we save what 0.5% of the project cost which will then be spent elsewhere - the whole point of the speed was that it provided a sensible turn round time against a timetable so we needed fewer platforms at both ends

    Edit the speed partly came from if we do it in x minutes we can get away with 4 platforms rather than 8.
    I think you save an enormous amount if you accept lower speed because the route doesn't have to be so straight. I'm sure one of the train folk will correct me if I've got that wrong.
    Depends on how much lower the speed is and it's a bit late for that with HS2, because the route is mapped out now and land bought. You don't want to go and redesign it at this stage.

    I presume they're will be some savings to be made on the engineering specification of the build, but there are timetabling consequences for the stations. I think most of the money wasted (on the bloody expensive Cheryl Gillan tunnels, and on assigning risk to the contractors) has been wasted now, and there's not much you can do to claw it back.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 62,557

    Sandpit said:

    Phil said:

    Phil said:

    There’s no question that Linux requires a tad more handholding to this day, but the way Microsoft has fouled up Windows makes that less of a downside than it used to be. Everyone used to assume that the infamous “year of the Linux desktop” would require Linux to improve beyond all recognition to make the switch a no brainer. Instead Microsoft decided to stab themselves in the front and make such a mess of Windows that people are voluntarily switching to Linux despite the flaws.

    The issue with Linux on the desktop is what I call the showstopper problem. You install Linux, it looks great and works fine for lots of stuff - then you try something that was trivial and Windows and it just won't work no matter what you do.

    I've been running Linux on at least one PC for over 20 years, and actually did some kernel development in the early 2000s, but I'm still on Windows for my main desktop precisely because of this.

    I switched the PC I use for 3D printing to Linux and had to go back to Windows because Ubuntu couldn't run the Linux version of the slicer software (OrcaSlicer - a modern open-source package). The provided appimage package didn't work at all and building from source errored out.

    It was quicker to re-install Windows, download the EXE and it just worked.

    I suspect the only area where Linux will actually take a bite out of Windows is gaming, thanks to all the hard work done by Valve on Win32/64 compatibility.
    Which part doesn't work? There's a Flatpak package and that does run at least (I just tried it).
    This was about six months ago, the Flatpak wasn't available then. Just an appimage and source. The appimage wouldn’t even open on Ubuntu.
    This may be teaching grandmother to suck eggs, but did you mark the AppImage download file as an executable binary? The browser won’t do it, for obvious security related reasons.

    Also, are you really sure you downloaded from the official website? See my previous comment...
    @ydoethur this conversation above is why you should just get a Mac ;-)
    I have a Mac mini in addition to my Linux setup, but I only ever use it to build iOS apps (because Apple forces you to use an Apple device to do so). I find the Mac UI quite unintuitive compared to both Windows and Ubuntu, but perhaps that's just because of my inexperience with it.
    Interesting. I use varieties of all three on a daily basis (I’m an IT manager as opposed to a dev) so have learned to just switch between them as appropriate.

    Linux is my least familiar but generally requires the least work, at least on servers. I’m convinced the Year of the Linux Desktop will happen eventually, as has been said something like SteamOS will be the surprising vanguard.
  • FossFoss Posts: 2,927
    edited May 19

    rkrkrk said:

    eek said:

    Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander is expected to confirm that HS2 trains will run slower than initially planned, in a bid to cut costs

    So we save what 0.5% of the project cost which will then be spent elsewhere - the whole point of the speed was that it provided a sensible turn round time against a timetable so we needed fewer platforms at both ends

    Edit the speed partly came from if we do it in x minutes we can get away with 4 platforms rather than 8.
    I think you save an enormous amount if you accept lower speed because the route doesn't have to be so straight. I'm sure one of the train folk will correct me if I've got that wrong.
    Depends on how much lower the speed is and it's a bit late for that with HS2, because the route is mapped out now and land bought. You don't want to go and redesign it at this stage.

    I presume they're will be some savings to be made on the engineering specification of the build, but there are timetabling consequences for the stations. I think most of the money wasted (on the bloody expensive Cheryl Gillan tunnels, and on assigning risk to the contractors) has been wasted now, and there's not much you can do to claw it back.
    The land is more than bought; you can see the long yellow line of the building site on Google's areal photography.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 3,333
    Phil said:

    Sandpit said:

    Phil said:

    Phil said:

    There’s no question that Linux requires a tad more handholding to this day, but the way Microsoft has fouled up Windows makes that less of a downside than it used to be. Everyone used to assume that the infamous “year of the Linux desktop” would require Linux to improve beyond all recognition to make the switch a no brainer. Instead Microsoft decided to stab themselves in the front and make such a mess of Windows that people are voluntarily switching to Linux despite the flaws.

    The issue with Linux on the desktop is what I call the showstopper problem. You install Linux, it looks great and works fine for lots of stuff - then you try something that was trivial and Windows and it just won't work no matter what you do.

    I've been running Linux on at least one PC for over 20 years, and actually did some kernel development in the early 2000s, but I'm still on Windows for my main desktop precisely because of this.

    I switched the PC I use for 3D printing to Linux and had to go back to Windows because Ubuntu couldn't run the Linux version of the slicer software (OrcaSlicer - a modern open-source package). The provided appimage package didn't work at all and building from source errored out.

    It was quicker to re-install Windows, download the EXE and it just worked.

    I suspect the only area where Linux will actually take a bite out of Windows is gaming, thanks to all the hard work done by Valve on Win32/64 compatibility.
    Which part doesn't work? There's a Flatpak package and that does run at least (I just tried it).
    This was about six months ago, the Flatpak wasn't available then. Just an appimage and source. The appimage wouldn’t even open on Ubuntu.
    This may be teaching grandmother to suck eggs, but did you mark the AppImage download file as an executable binary? The browser won’t do it, for obvious security related reasons.

    Also, are you really sure you downloaded from the official website? See my previous comment...
    @ydoethur this conversation above is why you should just get a Mac ;-)
    One the one hand, yes. On the other hand the official Orca Slicer website does tell you not to use this installation method at all & to use one of their supported sources for the software on Linux!

    Not sure why they offer AppImages if they don’t want to support them to be honest. You always have to remember to make the things executable & I always forget because I almost never use them. I think the only AppImage I currently use comes from HMRC.
    To be fair to @PoodleInASlipstream the AppImage for Orca Slicer was the first download choice in the list six months ago.

    I must confess that I know zip about AppImages - I hardly ever use the things.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,694
    Another one at Kings bites the dust:

    https://thetab.com/2026/05/18/cambridge-university-professor-stripped-of-fellowship-following-sexual-harassment-claims

    "An emeritus professor at King’s College has been stripped of his fellowship after sexual harassment claims against him were upheld in an investigation.

    Herbert Huppert, 82, had previously been a fellow at King’s College for 50 years and received an emeritus fellowship in 2013.

    Huppert’s exclusion came after multiple allegations of misconduct, including sexualised language and inappropriate touching. College authorities were informed of his behaviour by at least two people, although sources claim Huppert had been a cause for concern for years."

    (On a political board like this, some will recognise the surname...)
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 10,245

    slade said:

    Back to local by-elections this Thursday. Quite an interesting set with no Lab, Con, or Ref defences. We have a LD defence in Dorset, a Ind defence in Fylde, a Green defence in Lancaster, and a Malvern Hills Ind defence in, obviously, Malvern Hills.

    There 18 or so on June 18th!
    is that when the Reform paper candidates who've had to resign pop up?

    Will any council control depend upon those outcomes do we know?
    There are at least six Green Councillors who have already resigned in London.

    Simon Anthony (North Acton, Ealing) – Resigned for health reasons.
    James Tilden (Hackney Central) – Forced to stand down because he was ineligible; he is a primary school teacher employed by the local authority.
    Muhammed Abu Naser (Regent’s Park, Camden) – Also forced to resign due to council employment as a school teacher.
    Jayon Henriques (Northumberland Park, Haringey) – Found ineligible to serve.
    Saiqa Ali (Streatham St Leonard's, Lambeth) – Suspended by the party prior to polling day over antisemitic social media posts, she declined to take up her seat after winning.
    Joanna Eaves (Clapham Park, Lambeth) Paper candidate. Ill health.
  • I am, in the end, right about absolutely everything*. It’s fucking uncanny. I should be hired by the government to just tootle about on £6,000 an hour. Making coffee. Staring at my Neanderthal hand axe. Flying to Rwanda for lolz

    Every so often I will make a random observation. “You don’t need speed”. “The necklace”. “There’s a pandemic coming.” “Antique coffee cans from about 1800-1830 are stupidly cheap and beautiful”. And a flunky next to me will slavishly write it down, send it to HMG, and save the nation BILLIONS

    *with the POSSIBLE exception of what3words

    With a fair wind, I reckon you could take at least 0.01% of Rory Sutherland's share of the market in this kind of thing.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 62,557
    Foss said:

    rkrkrk said:

    eek said:

    Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander is expected to confirm that HS2 trains will run slower than initially planned, in a bid to cut costs

    So we save what 0.5% of the project cost which will then be spent elsewhere - the whole point of the speed was that it provided a sensible turn round time against a timetable so we needed fewer platforms at both ends

    Edit the speed partly came from if we do it in x minutes we can get away with 4 platforms rather than 8.
    I think you save an enormous amount if you accept lower speed because the route doesn't have to be so straight. I'm sure one of the train folk will correct me if I've got that wrong.
    Depends on how much lower the speed is and it's a bit late for that with HS2, because the route is mapped out now and land bought. You don't want to go and redesign it at this stage.

    I presume they're will be some savings to be made on the engineering specification of the build, but there are timetabling consequences for the stations. I think most of the money wasted (on the bloody expensive Cheryl Gillan tunnels, and on assigning risk to the contractors) has been wasted now, and there's not much you can do to claw it back.
    The land is more than bought; you can see the long yellow line of the building site on Google's areal photography.
    I can’t help think that the whole thing would have been quicker and cheaper, if they’d put the entire London-Birmingham section in tunnels of similar spec to the Channel Tunnel.

    They’d have needed a fraction of the land, there would have been fewer objections, and the build phase would have started a decade earlier.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 6,136
    edited May 19
    Phil said:

    Phil said:

    Sandpit said:

    Phil said:

    Phil said:

    There’s no question that Linux requires a tad more handholding to this day, but the way Microsoft has fouled up Windows makes that less of a downside than it used to be. Everyone used to assume that the infamous “year of the Linux desktop” would require Linux to improve beyond all recognition to make the switch a no brainer. Instead Microsoft decided to stab themselves in the front and make such a mess of Windows that people are voluntarily switching to Linux despite the flaws.

    The issue with Linux on the desktop is what I call the showstopper problem. You install Linux, it looks great and works fine for lots of stuff - then you try something that was trivial and Windows and it just won't work no matter what you do.

    I've been running Linux on at least one PC for over 20 years, and actually did some kernel development in the early 2000s, but I'm still on Windows for my main desktop precisely because of this.

    I switched the PC I use for 3D printing to Linux and had to go back to Windows because Ubuntu couldn't run the Linux version of the slicer software (OrcaSlicer - a modern open-source package). The provided appimage package didn't work at all and building from source errored out.

    It was quicker to re-install Windows, download the EXE and it just worked.

    I suspect the only area where Linux will actually take a bite out of Windows is gaming, thanks to all the hard work done by Valve on Win32/64 compatibility.
    Which part doesn't work? There's a Flatpak package and that does run at least (I just tried it).
    This was about six months ago, the Flatpak wasn't available then. Just an appimage and source. The appimage wouldn’t even open on Ubuntu.
    This may be teaching grandmother to suck eggs, but did you mark the AppImage download file as an executable binary? The browser won’t do it, for obvious security related reasons.

    Also, are you really sure you downloaded from the official website? See my previous comment...
    @ydoethur this conversation above is why you should just get a Mac ;-)
    One the one hand, yes. On the other hand the official Orca Slicer website does tell you not to use this installation method at all & to use one of their supported sources for the software on Linux!

    Not sure why they offer AppImages if they don’t want to support them to be honest. You always have to remember to make the things executable & I always forget because I almost never use them. I think the only AppImage I currently use comes from HMRC.
    To be fair to @PoodleInASlipstream the AppImage for Orca Slicer was the first download choice in the list six months ago.

    I must confess that I know zip about AppImages - I hardly ever use the things.
    The diversity in Linux is the reason it is both good ... and bad.

    I use an AppImage for kdenlive, which is a video editor, because the version in Ubuntu is out of date, and that's what the developer provides.

    It is more or less equivalent to a Windows exe, as opposed to a Flatpak or a Snap, which are more like sandboxed environments.

    I try to avoid all 3 where possible, although Flatpak annoys me least.

    It is only niche things where you can't just use the default package and pretend none of these ideas exist.
  • FossFoss Posts: 2,927
    Sandpit said:

    Foss said:

    rkrkrk said:

    eek said:

    Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander is expected to confirm that HS2 trains will run slower than initially planned, in a bid to cut costs

    So we save what 0.5% of the project cost which will then be spent elsewhere - the whole point of the speed was that it provided a sensible turn round time against a timetable so we needed fewer platforms at both ends

    Edit the speed partly came from if we do it in x minutes we can get away with 4 platforms rather than 8.
    I think you save an enormous amount if you accept lower speed because the route doesn't have to be so straight. I'm sure one of the train folk will correct me if I've got that wrong.
    Depends on how much lower the speed is and it's a bit late for that with HS2, because the route is mapped out now and land bought. You don't want to go and redesign it at this stage.

    I presume they're will be some savings to be made on the engineering specification of the build, but there are timetabling consequences for the stations. I think most of the money wasted (on the bloody expensive Cheryl Gillan tunnels, and on assigning risk to the contractors) has been wasted now, and there's not much you can do to claw it back.
    The land is more than bought; you can see the long yellow line of the building site on Google's areal photography.
    I can’t help think that the whole thing would have been quicker and cheaper, if they’d put the entire London-Birmingham section in tunnels of similar spec to the Channel Tunnel.

    They’d have needed a fraction of the land, there would have been fewer objections, and the build phase would have started a decade earlier.
    It's funny you should say that. While it's not to the same scale, there is a 6 meter wide, 23 mile long tunnel being dug under the North Yorkshire Moors with minimal public outrage or concern.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 59,555
    edited May 19
    Foss said:

    ydoethur said:

    Cookie said:

    Morning all. Off thread but I'm feeling distinctly irritable. My daughter has her English Literature GCSE today and she's been rattling through it. Apparently English Literature is essentially a GCSE in woke: you have to split society up into bits and say who the goodies are (ethnic minorities and to a lesser extent the working classes) and who the baddies are (the patriarchy, white people, the bourgeoisie, the British.) This is a compulsory GCSE nowadays. Because some writer of fiction said so. How the fuck did we get here? I'm sure no other countries practice self-hatred to quite this degree.

    That's always been a compulsory GCSE.

    And the content of the current one was written by Michael Gove personally. Having taught it, it's anything but as described. So if you think it is woke, either you have seriously misunderstood it or your daughter's teachers have found a remarkable way to manipulate it.
    As it happens, my younger daughter is doing GCSE English at the moment.

    What board is this? Her essay on Mice and Men (for example) included none of this, and she got a very high grade on the coursework element.
    A former boss held the opinion the Steinbeck was the best thing ever but, after doing Of Mice and Men at school, I can never bring myself to even try anything else he wrote.
    I had the same problem with Keats. My teacher had done a thesis on his Odes at University and was obsessed. Which was fine for the first week or two but by the second term I had had it. At the end she sneaked in some other poems such as My Last Duchess by Browning. Guess what I used for my exams? The closest I have got to a Sonnet since is the Verve. It really killed it for me and I like poetry.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 25,017
    Cyclefree said:

    BBC article about Afghanistan, specifically about Afghan men selling their young daughters in order to be able to buy food.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0q25dwj807o

    A hideous reality. Though since Afghan men have created, followed and supported an ideology under the Taliban which treats the female sex worse than cattle my sympathy for those men is at a homeopathic level.

    But what is remarkable about this story is how the BBC writes about this as if the men are the victims here, how dreadful it all is for the men and asks no questions at all about why it is girls who are being sold and what they are being sold for - to be blunt, to be serially raped by much older men.

    The BBC makes those girls as invisible in the perspective with which this report has been written as they are in Afghan society.

    To be married at 10. Grim.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 15,801
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    Btw these are quietly catastrophic unemployment figures. Because the trend feels inexorable

    It’s the combo of Labour’s anti-growth, anti-jobs policies, plus new technology, and it is especially hitting the young

    My older daughter cannot find a summer job out of uni. Nothing. Nada. Zero. Used to be easy. She’s happy to work for minimum pay doing terrible jobs. Still nothing

    https://x.com/bbcnews/status/2056624751360057692?s=46

    It's worse than people think, private sector workers are now seeing real terms wage contraction. The headline number being reported is only positive because Labour have been giving record pay rises to the state sector which is a transfer of wealth from productive parts of the economy to destructive public sectors.

    Worse still over the year 190k fewer Brits are in employment and 770k foreigners have replaced them.

    This is the ultimate source of Reform's strength and until this changes expect there to be a substantial number of people willing to give Reform and similar parties a fair hearing.

    I think the next government will end up taking pretty drastic action and halt all but the most skilled immigration and end the student visa factories coupled with pretty drastic benefit cuts and eligibility changes for disability benefits. I don't see Reform or a Reform/Tory coalition allowing ADHD or depression for disability benefits.
    No one in Britain should get social housing - certainly in places like central London - unless they were born in Britain. Anyone who has it, who isn’t British born, should be given a three year eviction notice
    The total value of the subsidy (often monetised by subletting) must be enormous.
    How are non-citizens entitled to any government support in the first place?
    So, you think we should withdraw all support from Ukrainian refugees in the UK?
    No because they’re refugees, temporarily fleeing a brutal war.

    IIRC the scheme supports host families giving the refugee a spare room in their house, as opposed to paying their rent in their own house?
    Ukrainians get a lot of state aid compared to other refugees - probably because they're white so it's less politically problematic.

    From day one, they can get a welcome payment, Universal Credit, same university tuition fees as UK students, etc.

    However, their visa situation is somewhat precarious. compared to asylum seekers so that sort of balances.

    Also, there is no "temporarily" about it. I know quite a few Ukrainains (and Russians pretending to be Ukrainian, LOL) and I don't know any who are planning to go back.

    Ours both have Austrian passports now and the older one has gone to Hamburg to work on cruise ships. The younger one is training to be a primary school teacher and does some admin for Honest Dura's Pre-Enjoyed Motor Emporium. Return to whatever the fuck is left of Kharkov is not on their agenda.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 51,558
    edited May 19

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    MaxPB said:

    Btw these are quietly catastrophic unemployment figures. Because the trend feels inexorable

    It’s the combo of Labour’s anti-growth, anti-jobs policies, plus new technology, and it is especially hitting the young

    My older daughter cannot find a summer job out of uni. Nothing. Nada. Zero. Used to be easy. She’s happy to work for minimum pay doing terrible jobs. Still nothing

    https://x.com/bbcnews/status/2056624751360057692?s=46

    It's worse than people think, private sector workers are now seeing real terms wage contraction. The headline number being reported is only positive because Labour have been giving record pay rises to the state sector which is a transfer of wealth from productive parts of the economy to destructive public sectors.

    Worse still over the year 190k fewer Brits are in employment and 770k foreigners have replaced them.

    This is the ultimate source of Reform's strength and until this changes expect there to be a substantial number of people willing to give Reform and similar parties a fair hearing.

    I think the next government will end up taking pretty drastic action and halt all but the most skilled immigration and end the student visa factories coupled with pretty drastic benefit cuts and eligibility changes for disability benefits. I don't see Reform or a Reform/Tory coalition allowing ADHD or depression for disability benefits.
    No one in Britain should get social housing - certainly in places like central London - unless they were born in Britain. Anyone who has it, who isn’t British born, should be given a three year eviction notice
    The total value of the subsidy (often monetised by subletting) must be enormous.
    This focus on devious grifting foreigners cheating native Brits is pure distraction from the real problem. The real problem is an economic model that fosters and tolerates sickening levels of inequality.

    We have people in this country who spend more on treats for their dog than somebody on a low wage has to live on. It's a scandal. This is what we are 'mugs' for putting up with.

    The populist right, the Trumps and Farages of this world, make out they're on the side of those on the wrong side of the system - but do we see lurid exposees from them of the worst examples of inequality along with tubthumping calls to sort it out? No we don't.

    Why? Because the people fronting and running those outfits are ardent supporters of the status quo, in fact would implement policies to push it even further towards the interests of the rich and powerful.

    So what they do, what they always do, is try and focus the anger of people who are struggling to get by onto minority groups, many of whom are even less well off. It's a well worn tactic. Well worn for the simple reason that sadly and often it works.
    You know you could move out of London if the sight of people spending so much on conspicuous consumption sickens you?
    Tiresome comment. I mean, literally, it's got me nodding off.

    So what's your theory on why the Right bangs on about immigrants to rile up the working class but has no interest in the sort of economic reforms that might actually direct wealth and opportunity their way?
    Mass immigration has been one of the most significant macroeconomic facts about the British economy this millennium. It affects everything from the demand for housing to the cost of hiring someone to pamper your dog, and in both those cases, it's your wealthy dog lover who benefits and your person who is struggling to get by who loses out.
    Pros and cons to immigration. We need it but not to excess. But like you say, it's a fact. It's happened. The 'mass immigration' era is over. It finished with a bang with Boris and his careless panicky Brexit mitigation measures.

    Reality should be faced imo. We have a diverse multicultural society of 70m people. We're not going to kick out loads of people because they weren't born here, then close the borders and shut up shop. So why tilt at windmills.

    I reckon I know why. The Populist Right have no interest in improving the lot of the working class. They simply want to misinform and stir up the 'white' sections of it in order to gain power on the back of their votes

    It's raw identity politics. Negative and divisive. Tawdry and exploitative. I don't know why anybody with a head or a heart would be attracted to it.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,694
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1e24vxyqnwo

    "The Metropolitan Police will ask the Crown Prosecution Service to consider charging up to 57 individuals and 20 companies over the Grenfell Tower fire disaster.

    In an update at New Scotland Yard, the force said it would submit evidence files to the CPS by the end of September this year."

    I would expect a severe whittling down of those numbers at the CPS...
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 25,017
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    MaxPB said:

    Btw these are quietly catastrophic unemployment figures. Because the trend feels inexorable

    It’s the combo of Labour’s anti-growth, anti-jobs policies, plus new technology, and it is especially hitting the young

    My older daughter cannot find a summer job out of uni. Nothing. Nada. Zero. Used to be easy. She’s happy to work for minimum pay doing terrible jobs. Still nothing

    https://x.com/bbcnews/status/2056624751360057692?s=46

    It's worse than people think, private sector workers are now seeing real terms wage contraction. The headline number being reported is only positive because Labour have been giving record pay rises to the state sector which is a transfer of wealth from productive parts of the economy to destructive public sectors.

    Worse still over the year 190k fewer Brits are in employment and 770k foreigners have replaced them.

    This is the ultimate source of Reform's strength and until this changes expect there to be a substantial number of people willing to give Reform and similar parties a fair hearing.

    I think the next government will end up taking pretty drastic action and halt all but the most skilled immigration and end the student visa factories coupled with pretty drastic benefit cuts and eligibility changes for disability benefits. I don't see Reform or a Reform/Tory coalition allowing ADHD or depression for disability benefits.
    No one in Britain should get social housing - certainly in places like central London - unless they were born in Britain. Anyone who has it, who isn’t British born, should be given a three year eviction notice
    The total value of the subsidy (often monetised by subletting) must be enormous.
    This focus on devious grifting foreigners cheating native Brits is pure distraction from the real problem. The real problem is an economic model that fosters and tolerates sickening levels of inequality.

    We have people in this country who spend more on treats for their dog than somebody on a low wage has to live on. It's a scandal. This is what we are 'mugs' for putting up with.

    The populist right, the Trumps and Farages of this world, make out they're on the side of those on the wrong side of the system - but do we see lurid exposees from them of the worst examples of inequality along with tubthumping calls to sort it out? No we don't.

    Why? Because the people fronting and running those outfits are ardent supporters of the status quo, in fact would implement policies to push it even further towards the interests of the rich and powerful.

    So what they do, what they always do, is try and focus the anger of people who are struggling to get by onto minority groups, many of whom are even less well off. It's a well worn tactic. Well worn for the simple reason that sadly and often it works.
    You know you could move out of London if the sight of people spending so much on conspicuous consumption sickens you?
    Tiresome comment. I mean, literally, it's got me nodding off.

    So what's your theory on why the Right bangs on about immigrants to rile up the working class but has no interest in the sort of economic reforms that might actually direct wealth and opportunity their way?
    Mass immigration has been one of the most significant macroeconomic facts about the British economy this millennium. It affects everything from the demand for housing to the cost of hiring someone to pamper your dog, and in both those cases, it's your wealthy dog lover who benefits and your person who is struggling to get by who loses out.
    Pros and cons to immigration. We need it but not to excess. But like you say, it's a fact. It's happened. The 'mass immigration' era is over. It finished with a bang with Boris and his careless panicky Brexit mitigation measures.

    Reality should be faced imo. We have a diverse multicultural society of 70m people. We're not going to kick out loads of people because they weren't born here, then close the borders and shut up shop. So why tilt at windmills.

    I reckon I know why. The Populist Right have no interest in improving the lot of the working class. They simply want to misinform and stir up the 'white' sections of it in order to gain power on the back of their votes

    It's raw identity politics. Negative and divisive. Tawdry and exploitative. I don't know why anybody with a head or a heart would be attracted to it.
    Why are you so sure that loads of people won't be kicked out of Britain?

    There are a lot of people in Britain who are willing to vote for a party who is promising to do just that. You are always so sure that the worst isn't going to happen, and then, it does.

    2030s Britain. Farage PM. Mass deportations of previously legal immigrants. It will happen because enough voters in Britain want it to happen, and no-one else in politics has a good idea of how to drag the country out of its malaise.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 26,335

    Cyclefree said:

    BBC article about Afghanistan, specifically about Afghan men selling their young daughters in order to be able to buy food.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0q25dwj807o

    A hideous reality. Though since Afghan men have created, followed and supported an ideology under the Taliban which treats the female sex worse than cattle my sympathy for those men is at a homeopathic level.

    But what is remarkable about this story is how the BBC writes about this as if the men are the victims here, how dreadful it all is for the men and asks no questions at all about why it is girls who are being sold and what they are being sold for - to be blunt, to be serially raped by much older men.

    The BBC makes those girls as invisible in the perspective with which this report has been written as they are in Afghan society.

    To be married at 10. Grim.
    It was one of the very first changes the Khomeini regime in Iran made - to permit marriage at 9 for girls.

    Taking away or denying rights for women and girls: the priority of all male dominated patriarchal ideologies and political / social ideologies ever in all societies.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 59,555
    Cyclefree said:

    BBC article about Afghanistan, specifically about Afghan men selling their young daughters in order to be able to buy food.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0q25dwj807o

    A hideous reality. Though since Afghan men have created, followed and supported an ideology under the Taliban which treats the female sex worse than cattle my sympathy for those men is at a homeopathic level.

    But what is remarkable about this story is how the BBC writes about this as if the men are the victims here, how dreadful it all is for the men and asks no questions at all about why it is girls who are being sold and what they are being sold for - to be blunt, to be serially raped by much older men.

    The BBC makes those girls as invisible in the perspective with which this report has been written as they are in Afghan society.

    Like you I struggle to have sympathy for the people of Afghanistan who supported these monsters and put them back in charge with minimal resistance, knowing full well what this would mean for their children and their daughters in particular. If they want to do something positive for them they need to find a Taliban and kill them. Things will not get better until these monsters are dead.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 29,256
    ydoethur said:

    Just as @eek gave us a thread where we could talk about Deltics, it changes!

    Sabotage!

    Derailed, in fact

    :)
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 43,706
    @shipwreck75.bsky.social‬

    According to Reuters, Iran's new proposal to the US to end the war includes

    - US troops leaving areas close to Iran
    - The US paying war reparations
    - Lifting sanctions on Iran
    - Release Iran's frozen assets
    - Ending the US blockade

    https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/iran-says-peace-proposal-includes-reparations-war-damage-us-troop-withdrawal-2026-05-19/
  • Phil said:

    This may be teaching grandmother to suck eggs, but did you mark the AppImage download file as an executable binary? The browser won’t do it, for obvious security related reasons.

    Also, are you really sure you downloaded from the official website? See my previous comment...

    Yes to both :smile:

    From what I could gather the appimage support in the LTS version of Ubuntu I was using is known to be broken. Doing a full OS upgrade fixes it, but that borked the kiauh/klipper firmware installation that actually runs the printer, which is why I was using Linux on that PC in the first place.

    This is why I have no plans to fully switch to Linux. Even a limited use case like driving a 3D printer, there's always showstoppers.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 57,533
    Scott_xP said:

    @shipwreck75.bsky.social‬

    According to Reuters, Iran's new proposal to the US to end the war includes

    - US troops leaving areas close to Iran
    - The US paying war reparations
    - Lifting sanctions on Iran
    - Release Iran's frozen assets
    - Ending the US blockade

    https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/iran-says-peace-proposal-includes-reparations-war-damage-us-troop-withdrawal-2026-05-19/

    Well at least they have dropped their demand for cream cakes...
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 29,256
    Scott_xP said:
    Well, yes. As I keep saying, we have not addressed the problems with ourselves that led to Brexit and until we do so rejoining is pointless, since the same problems would just happen again.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 25,017
    Scott_xP said:

    @shipwreck75.bsky.social‬

    According to Reuters, Iran's new proposal to the US to end the war includes

    - US troops leaving areas close to Iran
    - The US paying war reparations
    - Lifting sanctions on Iran
    - Release Iran's frozen assets
    - Ending the US blockade

    https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/iran-says-peace-proposal-includes-reparations-war-damage-us-troop-withdrawal-2026-05-19/

    I don't see the Strait of Hormuz opening this year. It's only another 32 weeks or so, and it's already been closed for 11 and a half.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 21,699
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    Btw these are quietly catastrophic unemployment figures. Because the trend feels inexorable

    It’s the combo of Labour’s anti-growth, anti-jobs policies, plus new technology, and it is especially hitting the young

    My older daughter cannot find a summer job out of uni. Nothing. Nada. Zero. Used to be easy. She’s happy to work for minimum pay doing terrible jobs. Still nothing

    https://x.com/bbcnews/status/2056624751360057692?s=46

    It's worse than people think, private sector workers are now seeing real terms wage contraction. The headline number being reported is only positive because Labour have been giving record pay rises to the state sector which is a transfer of wealth from productive parts of the economy to destructive public sectors.

    Worse still over the year 190k fewer Brits are in employment and 770k foreigners have replaced them.

    This is the ultimate source of Reform's strength and until this changes expect there to be a substantial number of people willing to give Reform and similar parties a fair hearing.

    I think the next government will end up taking pretty drastic action and halt all but the most skilled immigration and end the student visa factories coupled with pretty drastic benefit cuts and eligibility changes for disability benefits. I don't see Reform or a Reform/Tory coalition allowing ADHD or depression for disability benefits.
    No one in Britain should get social housing - certainly in places like central London - unless they were born in Britain. Anyone who has it, who isn’t British born, should be given a three year eviction notice
    The total value of the subsidy (often monetised by subletting) must be enormous.
    How are non-citizens entitled to any government support in the first place?
    So, you think we should withdraw all support from Ukrainian refugees in the UK?
    No because they’re refugees, temporarily fleeing a brutal war.

    IIRC the scheme supports host families giving the refugee a spare room in their house, as opposed to paying their rent in their own house?
    So, there you go, we've easily identified a situtation where non-citizens should get government support, answering your earlier question.

    (Ukrainians on the refugee scheme can claim Universal Credit and other benefits.)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 59,555
    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @shipwreck75.bsky.social‬

    According to Reuters, Iran's new proposal to the US to end the war includes

    - US troops leaving areas close to Iran
    - The US paying war reparations
    - Lifting sanctions on Iran
    - Release Iran's frozen assets
    - Ending the US blockade

    https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/iran-says-peace-proposal-includes-reparations-war-damage-us-troop-withdrawal-2026-05-19/

    Well at least they have dropped their demand for cream cakes...
    I am sure I've told this story before* but during the battle of Monte Casino the Germans had been under siege for a while and were literally living on rats. They launched a counter attack and occupied some of the American trenches. Where they found fresh cream cakes from Chicago. They did the only sensible thing available to them and surrendered.

    It's in the Glory and the Dream, a fantastic book on American history.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,863
    carnforth said:

    Another one at Kings bites the dust:

    https://thetab.com/2026/05/18/cambridge-university-professor-stripped-of-fellowship-following-sexual-harassment-claims

    "An emeritus professor at King’s College has been stripped of his fellowship after sexual harassment claims against him were upheld in an investigation.

    Herbert Huppert, 82, had previously been a fellow at King’s College for 50 years and received an emeritus fellowship in 2013.

    Huppert’s exclusion came after multiple allegations of misconduct, including sexualised language and inappropriate touching. College authorities were informed of his behaviour by at least two people, although sources claim Huppert had been a cause for concern for years."

    (On a political board like this, some will recognise the surname...)

    I mean with a name like Herbert Huppert the lad had no chance - nominative determinism and all that.
  • Scott_xP said:

    @shipwreck75.bsky.social‬

    According to Reuters, Iran's new proposal to the US to end the war includes

    - US troops leaving areas close to Iran
    - The US paying war reparations
    - Lifting sanctions on Iran
    - Release Iran's frozen assets
    - Ending the US blockade

    https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/iran-says-peace-proposal-includes-reparations-war-damage-us-troop-withdrawal-2026-05-19/

    I don't see the Strait of Hormuz opening this year. It's only another 32 weeks or so, and it's already been closed for 11 and a half.
    Unless Trump does the biggest TACO ever, no it won't re-open. We may need to get used to fuel being expensive and possibly rationed.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 21,699
    Barnesian said:

    slade said:

    Back to local by-elections this Thursday. Quite an interesting set with no Lab, Con, or Ref defences. We have a LD defence in Dorset, a Ind defence in Fylde, a Green defence in Lancaster, and a Malvern Hills Ind defence in, obviously, Malvern Hills.

    There 18 or so on June 18th!
    is that when the Reform paper candidates who've had to resign pop up?

    Will any council control depend upon those outcomes do we know?
    There are at least six Green Councillors who have already resigned in London.

    Simon Anthony (North Acton, Ealing) – Resigned for health reasons.
    James Tilden (Hackney Central) – Forced to stand down because he was ineligible; he is a primary school teacher employed by the local authority.
    Muhammed Abu Naser (Regent’s Park, Camden) – Also forced to resign due to council employment as a school teacher.
    Jayon Henriques (Northumberland Park, Haringey) – Found ineligible to serve.
    Saiqa Ali (Streatham St Leonard's, Lambeth) – Suspended by the party prior to polling day over antisemitic social media posts, she declined to take up her seat after winning.
    Joanna Eaves (Clapham Park, Lambeth) Paper candidate. Ill health.
    #pbpedantry Technically, Tilden, Naser and Henriques did not resign. They never took up the position in the first place.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 29,256

    Barnesian said:

    slade said:

    Back to local by-elections this Thursday. Quite an interesting set with no Lab, Con, or Ref defences. We have a LD defence in Dorset, a Ind defence in Fylde, a Green defence in Lancaster, and a Malvern Hills Ind defence in, obviously, Malvern Hills.

    There 18 or so on June 18th!
    is that when the Reform paper candidates who've had to resign pop up?

    Will any council control depend upon those outcomes do we know?
    There are at least six Green Councillors who have already resigned in London.

    Simon Anthony (North Acton, Ealing) – Resigned for health reasons.
    James Tilden (Hackney Central) – Forced to stand down because he was ineligible; he is a primary school teacher employed by the local authority.
    Muhammed Abu Naser (Regent’s Park, Camden) – Also forced to resign due to council employment as a school teacher.
    Jayon Henriques (Northumberland Park, Haringey) – Found ineligible to serve.
    Saiqa Ali (Streatham St Leonard's, Lambeth) – Suspended by the party prior to polling day over antisemitic social media posts, she declined to take up her seat after winning.
    Joanna Eaves (Clapham Park, Lambeth) Paper candidate. Ill health.
    #pbpedantry Technically, Tilden, Naser and Henriques did not resign. They never took up the position in the first place.
    presigned?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 51,558

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    MaxPB said:

    Btw these are quietly catastrophic unemployment figures. Because the trend feels inexorable

    It’s the combo of Labour’s anti-growth, anti-jobs policies, plus new technology, and it is especially hitting the young

    My older daughter cannot find a summer job out of uni. Nothing. Nada. Zero. Used to be easy. She’s happy to work for minimum pay doing terrible jobs. Still nothing

    https://x.com/bbcnews/status/2056624751360057692?s=46

    It's worse than people think, private sector workers are now seeing real terms wage contraction. The headline number being reported is only positive because Labour have been giving record pay rises to the state sector which is a transfer of wealth from productive parts of the economy to destructive public sectors.

    Worse still over the year 190k fewer Brits are in employment and 770k foreigners have replaced them.

    This is the ultimate source of Reform's strength and until this changes expect there to be a substantial number of people willing to give Reform and similar parties a fair hearing.

    I think the next government will end up taking pretty drastic action and halt all but the most skilled immigration and end the student visa factories coupled with pretty drastic benefit cuts and eligibility changes for disability benefits. I don't see Reform or a Reform/Tory coalition allowing ADHD or depression for disability benefits.
    No one in Britain should get social housing - certainly in places like central London - unless they were born in Britain. Anyone who has it, who isn’t British born, should be given a three year eviction notice
    The total value of the subsidy (often monetised by subletting) must be enormous.
    This focus on devious grifting foreigners cheating native Brits is pure distraction from the real problem. The real problem is an economic model that fosters and tolerates sickening levels of inequality.

    We have people in this country who spend more on treats for their dog than somebody on a low wage has to live on. It's a scandal. This is what we are 'mugs' for putting up with.

    The populist right, the Trumps and Farages of this world, make out they're on the side of those on the wrong side of the system - but do we see lurid exposees from them of the worst examples of inequality along with tubthumping calls to sort it out? No we don't.

    Why? Because the people fronting and running those outfits are ardent supporters of the status quo, in fact would implement policies to push it even further towards the interests of the rich and powerful.

    So what they do, what they always do, is try and focus the anger of people who are struggling to get by onto minority groups, many of whom are even less well off. It's a well worn tactic. Well worn for the simple reason that sadly and often it works.
    You know you could move out of London if the sight of people spending so much on conspicuous consumption sickens you?
    Tiresome comment. I mean, literally, it's got me nodding off.

    So what's your theory on why the Right bangs on about immigrants to rile up the working class but has no interest in the sort of economic reforms that might actually direct wealth and opportunity their way?
    Mass immigration has been one of the most significant macroeconomic facts about the British economy this millennium. It affects everything from the demand for housing to the cost of hiring someone to pamper your dog, and in both those cases, it's your wealthy dog lover who benefits and your person who is struggling to get by who loses out.
    Pros and cons to immigration. We need it but not to excess. But like you say, it's a fact. It's happened. The 'mass immigration' era is over. It finished with a bang with Boris and his careless panicky Brexit mitigation measures.

    Reality should be faced imo. We have a diverse multicultural society of 70m people. We're not going to kick out loads of people because they weren't born here, then close the borders and shut up shop. So why tilt at windmills.

    I reckon I know why. The Populist Right have no interest in improving the lot of the working class. They simply want to misinform and stir up the 'white' sections of it in order to gain power on the back of their votes

    It's raw identity politics. Negative and divisive. Tawdry and exploitative. I don't know why anybody with a head or a heart would be attracted to it.
    Why are you so sure that loads of people won't be kicked out of Britain?

    There are a lot of people in Britain who are willing to vote for a party who is promising to do just that. You are always so sure that the worst isn't going to happen, and then, it does.

    2030s Britain. Farage PM. Mass deportations of previously legal immigrants. It will happen because enough voters in Britain want it to happen, and no-one else in politics has a good idea of how to drag the country out of its malaise.
    No, I'm pretty realistic. I try to walk a line between too much optimism or doomery.

    But ok, of course I'm not 'sure'. I was just stating my assessment of probability robustly.

    Could it perchance be you - in being sure that we ARE going to deport millions and become an insular nativist society - that is succumbing to an innate excessive pessimism?

    That would be my take. On you.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 21,699
    Cyclefree said:

    BBC article about Afghanistan, specifically about Afghan men selling their young daughters in order to be able to buy food.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0q25dwj807o

    A hideous reality. Though since Afghan men have created, followed and supported an ideology under the Taliban which treats the female sex worse than cattle my sympathy for those men is at a homeopathic level.

    But what is remarkable about this story is how the BBC writes about this as if the men are the victims here, how dreadful it all is for the men and asks no questions at all about why it is girls who are being sold and what they are being sold for - to be blunt, to be serially raped by much older men.

    The BBC makes those girls as invisible in the perspective with which this report has been written as they are in Afghan society.

    The article is about the region of Ghor, where most never supported the Taliban. Indeed, many in Ghor are Shi'a Muslims, who were ruthlessly persecuted by the Sunni Taliban.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 67,195
    DavidL said:

    Foss said:

    ydoethur said:

    Cookie said:

    Morning all. Off thread but I'm feeling distinctly irritable. My daughter has her English Literature GCSE today and she's been rattling through it. Apparently English Literature is essentially a GCSE in woke: you have to split society up into bits and say who the goodies are (ethnic minorities and to a lesser extent the working classes) and who the baddies are (the patriarchy, white people, the bourgeoisie, the British.) This is a compulsory GCSE nowadays. Because some writer of fiction said so. How the fuck did we get here? I'm sure no other countries practice self-hatred to quite this degree.

    That's always been a compulsory GCSE.

    And the content of the current one was written by Michael Gove personally. Having taught it, it's anything but as described. So if you think it is woke, either you have seriously misunderstood it or your daughter's teachers have found a remarkable way to manipulate it.
    As it happens, my younger daughter is doing GCSE English at the moment.

    What board is this? Her essay on Mice and Men (for example) included none of this, and she got a very high grade on the coursework element.
    A former boss held the opinion the Steinbeck was the best thing ever but, after doing Of Mice and Men at school, I can never bring myself to even try anything else he wrote.
    I had the same problem with Keats.
    Fuck me, I love Keats.
  • theProletheProle Posts: 2,027
    edited May 19
    eek said:

    Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander is expected to confirm that HS2 trains will run slower than initially planned, in a bid to cut costs

    So we save what 0.5% of the project cost which will then be spent elsewhere - the whole point of the speed was that it provided a sensible turn round time against a timetable so we needed fewer platforms at both ends

    Edit the speed partly came from if we do it in x minutes we can get away with 4 platforms rather than 8.
    How does the maths on the platforms work, because that doesn't seem nearly right.

    Surely the limiting factor on each terminal platform is how long it takes for everyone to disembark, the train to be cleaned/catering restocked etc, and the passengers going the other way to embark.

    Let's say it takes 30mins to turn round a train with 1k passengers. Each platform can therefore handle 2k pax/hr in each direction (although inevitably, you won't ever hit peak flow both ways at the same time, as people will want to commute into London in the morning, and back home at night).

    If we simplify the system down to a model of two terminal stations with four platforms each, then the system should be capable of moving 8k passengers an hour in each direction, regardless of the journey time.

    What you do need to achieve the same flow rate at lower speeds is more trains. In our example, a train arrives at each terminus every 7.5 minutes. If the journey takes an hour, that means at any given time there will be 16 trains in motion. If the journey takes two hours, it will require 32 trains in motion to achieve the same throughput.

    You also will have 6 trains sat in platforms at any given time.

    Laws of diminishing returns do apply here - you need a total of 38 trains on the system for a two hour journey, 22 trains for a one hour journey, 14 trains for a 30 min journey, 10 trains for a 15 min journey. If the journey is instantaneous, you still need a minimum of 8 trains.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 26,335
    carnforth said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1e24vxyqnwo

    "The Metropolitan Police will ask the Crown Prosecution Service to consider charging up to 57 individuals and 20 companies over the Grenfell Tower fire disaster.

    In an update at New Scotland Yard, the force said it would submit evidence files to the CPS by the end of September this year."

    I would expect a severe whittling down of those numbers at the CPS...

    Some of the companies responsible no longer legally exist. And some of the people responsible - senior managers in France - shamefully refused to give evidence to the Moore-Bick Inquiry.

    Incidentally Lammy owes a public apology to Mr Justice Moore-Bick: his report is comprehensive, scathing and thoughtful in its treatment of the victims and their families.

    When he presented his report in September 2024, after summarising the report’s main findings, he stated that Part 9 - which set out the causes and times of death of each of the 72 victims - had established those in such a way that the families would not have to go through the process again in inquests. It was a necessary part of the inquiry but it was also an attempt to spare the families further pain and the sensitive way it was addressed in his statement was to his credit. He then read out the names of each of the victims.

    When he was appointed, Lammy said that a white middle class man could not possibly do such an inquiry and he should not have been appointed. Because, of course, what someone looks like is the critical factor when deciding how to assess highly technical evidence, reams of documentation and what witnesses say when questioned.

    This is the sort of nonsense a focus on superficial matters, "identities" and brainless sentimentality rather than character, skills, judgment and thoughtfulness leads to. It is the mirror image of the sort of callous populism Reform offers. What both offer is evidence of how many peoples' brains fall out of their ears when they mouth platitudes without bothering to think. Pretty much our entire political class these days sound like 5 year olds reciting their catechism. Burnham is just the goodie goodie boy in the front row putting his hand up as high as possible in order to get teacher's attention and win the gold star. He's the latest example not a break with this nonsense.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 26,335

    Cyclefree said:

    BBC article about Afghanistan, specifically about Afghan men selling their young daughters in order to be able to buy food.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0q25dwj807o

    A hideous reality. Though since Afghan men have created, followed and supported an ideology under the Taliban which treats the female sex worse than cattle my sympathy for those men is at a homeopathic level.

    But what is remarkable about this story is how the BBC writes about this as if the men are the victims here, how dreadful it all is for the men and asks no questions at all about why it is girls who are being sold and what they are being sold for - to be blunt, to be serially raped by much older men.

    The BBC makes those girls as invisible in the perspective with which this report has been written as they are in Afghan society.

    The article is about the region of Ghor, where most never supported the Taliban. Indeed, many in Ghor are Shi'a Muslims, who were ruthlessly persecuted by the Sunni Taliban.
    Are women and girls treated any differently in the rest of Afghanistan then?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 92,352
    edited May 19
    HS2 to open 2036 at earliest - Alexander

    The transport secretary now says the first trains will run from Birmingham to Old Oak Common in west London at some point between May 2036 and October 2039. Trains will run to Euston at a point between May 2040 and December 2043.

    Alexander says the expected cost of completing HS2 is now between £87.7bn and £102.7bn - priced in 2025.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 28,062

    HS2 to open 2036 at earliest - Alexander

    The transport secretary now says the first trains will run from Birmingham to Old Oak Common in west London at some point between May 2036 and October 2039. Trains will run to Euston at a point between May 2040 and December 2043.

    Alexander says the expected cost of completing HS2 is now between £87.7bn and £102.7bn - priced in 2025.

    How is there that much more to do? 30 years to go from Julius Nicholson's stupid mind to running trains is embarrassing.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 59,555

    Scott_xP said:

    @shipwreck75.bsky.social‬

    According to Reuters, Iran's new proposal to the US to end the war includes

    - US troops leaving areas close to Iran
    - The US paying war reparations
    - Lifting sanctions on Iran
    - Release Iran's frozen assets
    - Ending the US blockade

    https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/iran-says-peace-proposal-includes-reparations-war-damage-us-troop-withdrawal-2026-05-19/

    I don't see the Strait of Hormuz opening this year. It's only another 32 weeks or so, and it's already been closed for 11 and a half.
    Unless Trump does the biggest TACO ever, no it won't re-open. We may need to get used to fuel being expensive and possibly rationed.
    I must confess that I am very surprised that the closure is not having a bigger effect already. Some of the reports issued have proven somewhat alarmist about the impact, at least here in the west. There are suggestions that the effect on Asia has been greater. Will we be able to continue like this, with higher fuel costs and more expensive food but basically unchanged or is there a stepping point at which things are going to get a lot more serious? I see quite a lot of conflicting data points on this.
  • eekeek Posts: 34,568
    theProle said:

    eek said:

    Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander is expected to confirm that HS2 trains will run slower than initially planned, in a bid to cut costs

    So we save what 0.5% of the project cost which will then be spent elsewhere - the whole point of the speed was that it provided a sensible turn round time against a timetable so we needed fewer platforms at both ends

    Edit the speed partly came from if we do it in x minutes we can get away with 4 platforms rather than 8.
    How does the maths on the platforms work, because that doesn't seem nearly right.

    Surely the limiting factor on each terminal platform is how long it takes for everyone to disembark, the train to be cleaned/catering restocked etc, and the passengers going the other way to embark.

    Let's say it takes 30mins to turn round a train with 1k passengers. Each platform can therefore handle 2k pax/hr in each direction (although inevitably, you won't ever hit peak flow both ways at the same time, as people will want to commute into London in the morning, and back home at night).

    If we simplify the system down to a model of two terminal stations with four platforms each, then the system should be capable of moving 8k passengers an hour in each direction, regardless of the journey time.

    What you do need to achieve the same flow rate at lower speeds is more trains. In our example, a train arrives at each terminus every 7.5 minutes. If the journey takes an hour, that means at any given time there will be 16 trains in motion. If the journey takes two hours, it will require 32 trains in motion to achieve the same throughput.

    You also will have 6 trains sat in platforms at any given time.

    Laws of diminishing returns do apply here - you need a total of 38 trains on the system for a two hour journey, 22 trains for a one hour journey, 14 trains for a 30 min journey, 10 trains for a 15 min journey. If the journey is instantaneous, you still need a minimum of 8 trains.
    Service runs every 30 minutes - turn around time is 15 minutes.

    If the train takes 75 minutes it's sat in the platform for 15 minutes and can turn around. Ideally you want 70 minutes so there is extra built in leeway but the whole point is that you can turn the train around before the next one arrives.

    However, If the train takes 80 minutes, it arrives at x:20 not leaving enough time to turn around and be the the 0:30 - so that means you now need 2 platforms, 1 for the x:30 service which arrived at x:50 and 1 for the x:00 service which arrives at x:20.
  • eekeek Posts: 34,568
    tlg86 said:

    HS2 to open 2036 at earliest - Alexander

    The transport secretary now says the first trains will run from Birmingham to Old Oak Common in west London at some point between May 2036 and October 2039. Trains will run to Euston at a point between May 2040 and December 2043.

    Alexander says the expected cost of completing HS2 is now between £87.7bn and £102.7bn - priced in 2025.

    How is there that much more to do? 30 years to go from Julius Nicholson's stupid mind to running trains is embarrassing.
    And that's 30 years to do a single part of the project, it doesn't even solve the capacity issues between Birmingham and Crewe / Manchester.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 48,230
    Horns of a dilemma. Hope it's bloody painful.

    Jacob Freedland
    @JacobAD82
    ·
    4h
    EXC

    Newly elected Labour Edinburgh MSP called for Israel’s ‘crushing defeat’ months after Oct 7

    Irshad Ahmed made comments at a Pakistani cultural centre in Jan 2024

    Sarwar now under pressure to sanction him, but removing whip would put Reform into opposition

    https://x.com/JacobAD82/status/2056650921740820857?s=20
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 92,352
    tlg86 said:

    HS2 to open 2036 at earliest - Alexander

    The transport secretary now says the first trains will run from Birmingham to Old Oak Common in west London at some point between May 2036 and October 2039. Trains will run to Euston at a point between May 2040 and December 2043.

    Alexander says the expected cost of completing HS2 is now between £87.7bn and £102.7bn - priced in 2025.

    How is there that much more to do? 30 years to go from Julius Nicholson's stupid mind to running trains is embarrassing.
    At which point China will have gone from no high speed rail well over 100,000 kms worth and built out a load of other countries high speed rail and are already ready to deploy 400-450 kpmh trains across the network.
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 2,571
    Is there a route to a 2027 General Election?

    If Iran issue is resolved by end of summer.

    Burnham wins leadership by Autumn

    Global tensions ease and Bond rates fall..

    Burnham gets poll bounce and revokes some unpopular fuscal policies

    Next May elections far better for Labour

    Reform balloon deflates, Tory bubble stagnant, Nationalist surge fades.

    One way to destroy Reform other than policy is Farages boredom, scandal and age.

    He's desperate to get power asap, once he does he can and will destroy democratic checks and balances.

    One way to politically eradicate him is to force his self motivated retirement to the USA.



  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 25,017
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    MaxPB said:

    Btw these are quietly catastrophic unemployment figures. Because the trend feels inexorable

    It’s the combo of Labour’s anti-growth, anti-jobs policies, plus new technology, and it is especially hitting the young

    My older daughter cannot find a summer job out of uni. Nothing. Nada. Zero. Used to be easy. She’s happy to work for minimum pay doing terrible jobs. Still nothing

    https://x.com/bbcnews/status/2056624751360057692?s=46

    It's worse than people think, private sector workers are now seeing real terms wage contraction. The headline number being reported is only positive because Labour have been giving record pay rises to the state sector which is a transfer of wealth from productive parts of the economy to destructive public sectors.

    Worse still over the year 190k fewer Brits are in employment and 770k foreigners have replaced them.

    This is the ultimate source of Reform's strength and until this changes expect there to be a substantial number of people willing to give Reform and similar parties a fair hearing.

    I think the next government will end up taking pretty drastic action and halt all but the most skilled immigration and end the student visa factories coupled with pretty drastic benefit cuts and eligibility changes for disability benefits. I don't see Reform or a Reform/Tory coalition allowing ADHD or depression for disability benefits.
    No one in Britain should get social housing - certainly in places like central London - unless they were born in Britain. Anyone who has it, who isn’t British born, should be given a three year eviction notice
    The total value of the subsidy (often monetised by subletting) must be enormous.
    This focus on devious grifting foreigners cheating native Brits is pure distraction from the real problem. The real problem is an economic model that fosters and tolerates sickening levels of inequality.

    We have people in this country who spend more on treats for their dog than somebody on a low wage has to live on. It's a scandal. This is what we are 'mugs' for putting up with.

    The populist right, the Trumps and Farages of this world, make out they're on the side of those on the wrong side of the system - but do we see lurid exposees from them of the worst examples of inequality along with tubthumping calls to sort it out? No we don't.

    Why? Because the people fronting and running those outfits are ardent supporters of the status quo, in fact would implement policies to push it even further towards the interests of the rich and powerful.

    So what they do, what they always do, is try and focus the anger of people who are struggling to get by onto minority groups, many of whom are even less well off. It's a well worn tactic. Well worn for the simple reason that sadly and often it works.
    You know you could move out of London if the sight of people spending so much on conspicuous consumption sickens you?
    Tiresome comment. I mean, literally, it's got me nodding off.

    So what's your theory on why the Right bangs on about immigrants to rile up the working class but has no interest in the sort of economic reforms that might actually direct wealth and opportunity their way?
    Mass immigration has been one of the most significant macroeconomic facts about the British economy this millennium. It affects everything from the demand for housing to the cost of hiring someone to pamper your dog, and in both those cases, it's your wealthy dog lover who benefits and your person who is struggling to get by who loses out.
    Pros and cons to immigration. We need it but not to excess. But like you say, it's a fact. It's happened. The 'mass immigration' era is over. It finished with a bang with Boris and his careless panicky Brexit mitigation measures.

    Reality should be faced imo. We have a diverse multicultural society of 70m people. We're not going to kick out loads of people because they weren't born here, then close the borders and shut up shop. So why tilt at windmills.

    I reckon I know why. The Populist Right have no interest in improving the lot of the working class. They simply want to misinform and stir up the 'white' sections of it in order to gain power on the back of their votes

    It's raw identity politics. Negative and divisive. Tawdry and exploitative. I don't know why anybody with a head or a heart would be attracted to it.
    Why are you so sure that loads of people won't be kicked out of Britain?

    There are a lot of people in Britain who are willing to vote for a party who is promising to do just that. You are always so sure that the worst isn't going to happen, and then, it does.

    2030s Britain. Farage PM. Mass deportations of previously legal immigrants. It will happen because enough voters in Britain want it to happen, and no-one else in politics has a good idea of how to drag the country out of its malaise.
    No, I'm pretty realistic. I try to walk a line between too much optimism or doomery.

    But ok, of course I'm not 'sure'. I was just stating my assessment of probability robustly.

    Could it perchance be you - in being sure that we ARE going to deport millions and become an insular nativist society - that is succumbing to an innate excessive pessimism?

    That would be my take. On you.
    This may come as a surprise to you, but I'm actually naturally optimistic, and it's my innate optimism which is part of what makes me a lefty, and part of why I'm so relentlessly disappointed by our political trajectory.

    It's when I attempt to detach myself from my innate optimism that my predictions become more pessimistic. That meant I was right about a Trump second term, and i think it's right to expect Farage to become PM.

    It's when I let my instinctive optimism take over that I get things most wrong - e.g. after the Brexit vote I very confidently told the Americans I was visiting that there was a large Commons majority in favour of Norway for now, and that turned out to be insanely optimistic about how the politics would play out.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 92,352
    edited May 19
    eek said:

    tlg86 said:

    HS2 to open 2036 at earliest - Alexander

    The transport secretary now says the first trains will run from Birmingham to Old Oak Common in west London at some point between May 2036 and October 2039. Trains will run to Euston at a point between May 2040 and December 2043.

    Alexander says the expected cost of completing HS2 is now between £87.7bn and £102.7bn - priced in 2025.

    How is there that much more to do? 30 years to go from Julius Nicholson's stupid mind to running trains is embarrassing.
    And that's 30 years to do a single part of the project, it doesn't even solve the capacity issues between Birmingham and Crewe / Manchester.
    One sodding rail line between two cities that aren't that far apart....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 129,783
    Brixian59 said:

    Is there a route to a 2027 General Election?

    If Iran issue is resolved by end of summer.

    Burnham wins leadership by Autumn

    Global tensions ease and Bond rates fall..

    Burnham gets poll bounce and revokes some unpopular fuscal policies

    Next May elections far better for Labour

    Reform balloon deflates, Tory bubble stagnant, Nationalist surge fades.

    One way to destroy Reform other than policy is Farages boredom, scandal and age.

    He's desperate to get power asap, once he does he can and will destroy democratic checks and balances.

    One way to politically eradicate him is to force his self motivated retirement to the USA.



    'Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority'
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 81,344
    What an embarrasment HS2 is to the nation. Probably guaranteed a whole heap of lawyers & consultants retirements though.
  • PoodleInASlipstreamPoodleInASlipstream Posts: 853
    edited May 19
    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @shipwreck75.bsky.social‬

    According to Reuters, Iran's new proposal to the US to end the war includes

    - US troops leaving areas close to Iran
    - The US paying war reparations
    - Lifting sanctions on Iran
    - Release Iran's frozen assets
    - Ending the US blockade

    https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/iran-says-peace-proposal-includes-reparations-war-damage-us-troop-withdrawal-2026-05-19/

    I don't see the Strait of Hormuz opening this year. It's only another 32 weeks or so, and it's already been closed for 11 and a half.
    Unless Trump does the biggest TACO ever, no it won't re-open. We may need to get used to fuel being expensive and possibly rationed.
    I must confess that I am very surprised that the closure is not having a bigger effect already. Some of the reports issued have proven somewhat alarmist about the impact, at least here in the west. There are suggestions that the effect on Asia has been greater. Will we be able to continue like this, with higher fuel costs and more expensive food but basically unchanged or is there a stepping point at which things are going to get a lot more serious? I see quite a lot of conflicting data points on this.
    Every credible source I can find is estimating late June to mid July before the effects hit Europe seriously. A lot of countries, including the US, have been bleeding their strategic oil reserves to make up for the Hormuz shortfall, but those reserves are going to bottom out in a month or two.

    How bad it will be is open to question. Anything from £4/litre petrol to "here's your weekly 10l fuel ration" seems possible. We don't really understand how fuel demand destruction on this scale will actually play out.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 51,558
    edited May 19
    Cyclefree said:

    carnforth said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1e24vxyqnwo

    "The Metropolitan Police will ask the Crown Prosecution Service to consider charging up to 57 individuals and 20 companies over the Grenfell Tower fire disaster.

    In an update at New Scotland Yard, the force said it would submit evidence files to the CPS by the end of September this year."

    I would expect a severe whittling down of those numbers at the CPS...

    Some of the companies responsible no longer legally exist. And some of the people responsible - senior managers in France - shamefully refused to give evidence to the Moore-Bick Inquiry.

    Incidentally Lammy owes a public apology to Mr Justice Moore-Bick: his report is comprehensive, scathing and thoughtful in its treatment of the victims and their families.

    When he presented his report in September 2024, after summarising the report’s main findings, he stated that Part 9 - which set out the causes and times of death of each of the 72 victims - had established those in such a way that the families would not have to go through the process again in inquests. It was a necessary part of the inquiry but it was also an attempt to spare the families further pain and the sensitive way it was addressed in his statement was to his credit. He then read out the names of each of the victims.

    When he was appointed, Lammy said that a white middle class man could not possibly do such an inquiry and he should not have been appointed. Because, of course, what someone looks like is the critical factor when deciding how to assess highly technical evidence, reams of documentation and what witnesses say when questioned.

    This is the sort of nonsense a focus on superficial matters, "identities" and brainless sentimentality rather than character, skills, judgment and thoughtfulness leads to. It is the mirror image of the sort of callous populism Reform offers. What both offer is evidence of how many peoples' brains fall out of their ears when they mouth platitudes without bothering to think. Pretty much our entire political class these days sound like 5 year olds reciting their catechism. Burnham is just the goodie goodie boy in the front row putting his hand up as high as possible in order to get teacher's attention and win the gold star. He's the latest example not a break with this nonsense.
    You don't think he'll deliver The Change That People Voted For then? 🙂

    This for me is a great example of what you're talking about.

    I mean, what IS the TCTPVF?

    If it was for us to break upwards out of long term sluggish growth regardless of the global environment, or to transform public services regardless of the state of the finances or bond market sentiment, then nobody will be delivering that, I'm sorry to report.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 129,783
    Pulpstar said:

    What an embarrasment HS2 is to the nation. Probably guaranteed a whole heap of lawyers & consultants retirements though.

    I know we shouldn’t speak ill of the dead but this is all Cheryl Gillan’s fault.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 92,352
    Labour confirms Burnham to be its Makerfield byelection candidate, after NEC declines to shortlist anyone else
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 6,136

    Pulpstar said:

    What an embarrasment HS2 is to the nation. Probably guaranteed a whole heap of lawyers & consultants retirements though.

    I know we shouldn’t speak ill of the dead but this is all Cheryl Gillan’s fault.
    The correct response to the Nimbys was to bury the whole thing in a tunnel. Surely that couldn't have been any more expensive.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 28,062
    edited May 19

    Labour confirms Burnham to be its Makerfield byelection candidate, after NEC declines to shortlist anyone else

    Reform going with a more local candidate:

    https://x.com/reformparty_uk/status/2056717880134152269
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 10,245
    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @shipwreck75.bsky.social‬

    According to Reuters, Iran's new proposal to the US to end the war includes

    - US troops leaving areas close to Iran
    - The US paying war reparations
    - Lifting sanctions on Iran
    - Release Iran's frozen assets
    - Ending the US blockade

    https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/iran-says-peace-proposal-includes-reparations-war-damage-us-troop-withdrawal-2026-05-19/

    Well at least they have dropped their demand for cream cakes...
    There's a deal to be made.

    Apart from the US paying war reparations, which is politically impossible though more hidden sweeteners may be available, I think the US can agree to those terms in return for a promise not to develop a nuclear weapon for twenty years, and end the Iranian blockade. That's the deal.

    Same as Obama's but 20 years not 15 years, and no inspections. Trust them
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 43,706
    @jessicaelgot.bsky.social‬

    NEW - Andy Burnaham is the candidate for Makerfield.

    After all that, the NEC didn't shortlist anyone else. It's done.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 59,555
    edited May 19
    Pulpstar said:

    What an embarrasment HS2 is to the nation. Probably guaranteed a whole heap of lawyers & consultants retirements though.

    It is really hard to imagine how we could have done it worse, to be honest. The famous Two Ronnies sketch of men working hard moving a hole from one end of the garden to the other looks like a model of productivity by comparison.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 23,399

    Pulpstar said:

    What an embarrasment HS2 is to the nation. Probably guaranteed a whole heap of lawyers & consultants retirements though.

    I know we shouldn’t speak ill of the dead but this is all Cheryl Gillan’s fault.
    And she was largely doing her (perceived) job as a constituency MP. Had she not done that, someone else would almost certainly have pushed her out at an election.

    All of... this... may not be what be voted for, but it's the inevitable consequence of what we did vote for.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 5,386
    edited May 19

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @shipwreck75.bsky.social‬

    According to Reuters, Iran's new proposal to the US to end the war includes

    - US troops leaving areas close to Iran
    - The US paying war reparations
    - Lifting sanctions on Iran
    - Release Iran's frozen assets
    - Ending the US blockade

    https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/iran-says-peace-proposal-includes-reparations-war-damage-us-troop-withdrawal-2026-05-19/

    I don't see the Strait of Hormuz opening this year. It's only another 32 weeks or so, and it's already been closed for 11 and a half.
    Unless Trump does the biggest TACO ever, no it won't re-open. We may need to get used to fuel being expensive and possibly rationed.
    I must confess that I am very surprised that the closure is not having a bigger effect already. Some of the reports issued have proven somewhat alarmist about the impact, at least here in the west. There are suggestions that the effect on Asia has been greater. Will we be able to continue like this, with higher fuel costs and more expensive food but basically unchanged or is there a stepping point at which things are going to get a lot more serious? I see quite a lot of conflicting data points on this.
    Every credible source I can find is estimating late June to mid July before the effects hit Europe seriously. A lot of countries, including the US, have been bleeding their strategic oil reserves to make up for the Hormuz shortfall, but those reserves are going to bottom out in a month or two.

    How bad it will be is open to question. Anything from £4/litre petrol to "here's your weekly 10l fuel ration" seems possible. We don't really understand how fuel demand destruction on this scale will actually play out.
    I guess as a rough guide you'd expect the hardest hit countries with the most demand destruction to be those that tax fuel the least or, even worse, subsidise it. It's these countries that will suffer the highest percentage rise in fuel costs, and they tend to be the poorer ones. There are already reports of large fuel (and fertiliser) protests in some African countries.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,311
    edited May 19
    Cookie said:

    SandraMc said:

    No poetry in English Literature GCSE?

    Don't even get me started.

    Q. What does the poet mean by x?
    A. i neither kno nor care peotry is uterly WET and weedy and invented for fotherington-tomas who recite wordsworth ect. at the drop of a pin. I discard him
  • eekeek Posts: 34,568

    Pulpstar said:

    What an embarrasment HS2 is to the nation. Probably guaranteed a whole heap of lawyers & consultants retirements though.

    I know we shouldn’t speak ill of the dead but this is all Cheryl Gillan’s fault.
    I actually blame my mum - she both lived in Amersham and gad irrational misunderstanding on how wide train tracks actually are
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 129,783

    Labour confirms Burnham to be its Makerfield byelection candidate, after NEC declines to shortlist anyone else

    Huzzah, perfect opportunity to use that Andy Burnham in those shorts photo with the headline ‘He’s winning’.

    That picture is going to be used more times than a cucumber in a women’s prison
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 51,558

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    MaxPB said:

    Btw these are quietly catastrophic unemployment figures. Because the trend feels inexorable

    It’s the combo of Labour’s anti-growth, anti-jobs policies, plus new technology, and it is especially hitting the young

    My older daughter cannot find a summer job out of uni. Nothing. Nada. Zero. Used to be easy. She’s happy to work for minimum pay doing terrible jobs. Still nothing

    https://x.com/bbcnews/status/2056624751360057692?s=46

    It's worse than people think, private sector workers are now seeing real terms wage contraction. The headline number being reported is only positive because Labour have been giving record pay rises to the state sector which is a transfer of wealth from productive parts of the economy to destructive public sectors.

    Worse still over the year 190k fewer Brits are in employment and 770k foreigners have replaced them.

    This is the ultimate source of Reform's strength and until this changes expect there to be a substantial number of people willing to give Reform and similar parties a fair hearing.

    I think the next government will end up taking pretty drastic action and halt all but the most skilled immigration and end the student visa factories coupled with pretty drastic benefit cuts and eligibility changes for disability benefits. I don't see Reform or a Reform/Tory coalition allowing ADHD or depression for disability benefits.
    No one in Britain should get social housing - certainly in places like central London - unless they were born in Britain. Anyone who has it, who isn’t British born, should be given a three year eviction notice
    The total value of the subsidy (often monetised by subletting) must be enormous.
    This focus on devious grifting foreigners cheating native Brits is pure distraction from the real problem. The real problem is an economic model that fosters and tolerates sickening levels of inequality.

    We have people in this country who spend more on treats for their dog than somebody on a low wage has to live on. It's a scandal. This is what we are 'mugs' for putting up with.

    The populist right, the Trumps and Farages of this world, make out they're on the side of those on the wrong side of the system - but do we see lurid exposees from them of the worst examples of inequality along with tubthumping calls to sort it out? No we don't.

    Why? Because the people fronting and running those outfits are ardent supporters of the status quo, in fact would implement policies to push it even further towards the interests of the rich and powerful.

    So what they do, what they always do, is try and focus the anger of people who are struggling to get by onto minority groups, many of whom are even less well off. It's a well worn tactic. Well worn for the simple reason that sadly and often it works.
    You know you could move out of London if the sight of people spending so much on conspicuous consumption sickens you?
    Tiresome comment. I mean, literally, it's got me nodding off.

    So what's your theory on why the Right bangs on about immigrants to rile up the working class but has no interest in the sort of economic reforms that might actually direct wealth and opportunity their way?
    Mass immigration has been one of the most significant macroeconomic facts about the British economy this millennium. It affects everything from the demand for housing to the cost of hiring someone to pamper your dog, and in both those cases, it's your wealthy dog lover who benefits and your person who is struggling to get by who loses out.
    Pros and cons to immigration. We need it but not to excess. But like you say, it's a fact. It's happened. The 'mass immigration' era is over. It finished with a bang with Boris and his careless panicky Brexit mitigation measures.

    Reality should be faced imo. We have a diverse multicultural society of 70m people. We're not going to kick out loads of people because they weren't born here, then close the borders and shut up shop. So why tilt at windmills.

    I reckon I know why. The Populist Right have no interest in improving the lot of the working class. They simply want to misinform and stir up the 'white' sections of it in order to gain power on the back of their votes

    It's raw identity politics. Negative and divisive. Tawdry and exploitative. I don't know why anybody with a head or a heart would be attracted to it.
    Why are you so sure that loads of people won't be kicked out of Britain?

    There are a lot of people in Britain who are willing to vote for a party who is promising to do just that. You are always so sure that the worst isn't going to happen, and then, it does.

    2030s Britain. Farage PM. Mass deportations of previously legal immigrants. It will happen because enough voters in Britain want it to happen, and no-one else in politics has a good idea of how to drag the country out of its malaise.
    No, I'm pretty realistic. I try to walk a line between too much optimism or doomery.

    But ok, of course I'm not 'sure'. I was just stating my assessment of probability robustly.

    Could it perchance be you - in being sure that we ARE going to deport millions and become an insular nativist society - that is succumbing to an innate excessive pessimism?

    That would be my take. On you.
    This may come as a surprise to you, but I'm actually naturally optimistic, and it's my innate optimism which is part of what makes me a lefty, and part of why I'm so relentlessly disappointed by our political trajectory.

    It's when I attempt to detach myself from my innate optimism that my predictions become more pessimistic. That meant I was right about a Trump second term, and i think it's right to expect Farage to become PM.

    It's when I let my instinctive optimism take over that I get things most wrong - e.g. after the Brexit vote I very confidently told the Americans I was visiting that there was a large Commons majority in favour of Norway for now, and that turned out to be insanely optimistic about how the politics would play out.
    Ah, ok. My wrong call on Trump2. Thought you had that in mind. That's not my norm tbf. But oh god it was a big one.

    I'm disappointed too. There's little appetite for the sort of things I'd like to see. So my priority is that Reform don't make it and I'm genuinely (and I think realistically) hopeful they won't.
  • theProletheProle Posts: 2,027
    edited May 19
    eek said:

    theProle said:

    eek said:

    Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander is expected to confirm that HS2 trains will run slower than initially planned, in a bid to cut costs

    So we save what 0.5% of the project cost which will then be spent elsewhere - the whole point of the speed was that it provided a sensible turn round time against a timetable so we needed fewer platforms at both ends

    Edit the speed partly came from if we do it in x minutes we can get away with 4 platforms rather than 8.
    How does the maths on the platforms work, because that doesn't seem nearly right.

    Surely the limiting factor on each terminal platform is how long it takes for everyone to disembark, the train to be cleaned/catering restocked etc, and the passengers going the other way to embark.

    Let's say it takes 30mins to turn round a train with 1k passengers. Each platform can therefore handle 2k pax/hr in each direction (although inevitably, you won't ever hit peak flow both ways at the same time, as people will want to commute into London in the morning, and back home at night).

    If we simplify the system down to a model of two terminal stations with four platforms each, then the system should be capable of moving 8k passengers an hour in each direction, regardless of the journey time.

    What you do need to achieve the same flow rate at lower speeds is more trains. In our example, a train arrives at each terminus every 7.5 minutes. If the journey takes an hour, that means at any given time there will be 16 trains in motion. If the journey takes two hours, it will require 32 trains in motion to achieve the same throughput.

    You also will have 6 trains sat in platforms at any given time.

    Laws of diminishing returns do apply here - you need a total of 38 trains on the system for a two hour journey, 22 trains for a one hour journey, 14 trains for a 30 min journey, 10 trains for a 15 min journey. If the journey is instantaneous, you still need a minimum of 8 trains.
    Service runs every 30 minutes - turn around time is 15 minutes.

    If the train takes 75 minutes it's sat in the platform for 15 minutes and can turn around. Ideally you want 70 minutes so there is extra built in leeway but the whole point is that you can turn the train around before the next one arrives.

    However, If the train takes 80 minutes, it arrives at x:20 not leaving enough time to turn around and be the the 0:30 - so that means you now need 2 platforms, 1 for the x:30 service which arrived at x:50 and 1 for the x:00 service which arrives at x:20.
    That's only if you are insisting on the trains departing at 00 and 30mins past at each end. If you shift the departures from the one end to 05 and 35 mins past, then it all works again.

    Even if you keep your timings, it only requires one extra train in each terminus at a time, so 4 platforms become 5, not 8.

    That said, given the genius level brains involved, I can entirely believe they demanded trains to depart at at 00 and 30 mins both ends, without considering the additional costs that incurs.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 29,378

    Pulpstar said:

    What an embarrasment HS2 is to the nation. Probably guaranteed a whole heap of lawyers & consultants retirements though.

    I know we shouldn’t speak ill of the dead but this is all Cheryl Gillan’s fault.
    The correct response to the Nimbys was to bury the whole thing in a tunnel. Surely that couldn't have been any more expensive.
    Or have the cojones to tell the NIMBYs to eff off and do it anyway.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 57,533

    Labour confirms Burnham to be its Makerfield byelection candidate, after NEC declines to shortlist anyone else

    Huzzah, perfect opportunity to use that Andy Burnham in those shorts photo with the headline ‘He’s winning’.

    That picture is going to be used more times than a cucumber in a women’s prison
    "The thighs the limit" please!
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 5,386
    edited May 19
    Brixian59 said:

    Is there a route to a 2027 General Election?

    If Iran issue is resolved by end of summer.

    Burnham wins leadership by Autumn

    Global tensions ease and Bond rates fall..

    Burnham gets poll bounce and revokes some unpopular fuscal policies

    Next May elections far better for Labour

    Reform balloon deflates, Tory bubble stagnant, Nationalist surge fades.

    One way to destroy Reform other than policy is Farages boredom, scandal and age.

    He's desperate to get power asap, once he does he can and will destroy democratic checks and balances.

    One way to politically eradicate him is to force his self motivated retirement to the USA.



    I'm no expert on poetry, but I'm not sure that really scans.
  • eekeek Posts: 34,568
    theProle said:

    eek said:

    theProle said:

    eek said:

    Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander is expected to confirm that HS2 trains will run slower than initially planned, in a bid to cut costs

    So we save what 0.5% of the project cost which will then be spent elsewhere - the whole point of the speed was that it provided a sensible turn round time against a timetable so we needed fewer platforms at both ends

    Edit the speed partly came from if we do it in x minutes we can get away with 4 platforms rather than 8.
    How does the maths on the platforms work, because that doesn't seem nearly right.

    Surely the limiting factor on each terminal platform is how long it takes for everyone to disembark, the train to be cleaned/catering restocked etc, and the passengers going the other way to embark.

    Let's say it takes 30mins to turn round a train with 1k passengers. Each platform can therefore handle 2k pax/hr in each direction (although inevitably, you won't ever hit peak flow both ways at the same time, as people will want to commute into London in the morning, and back home at night).

    If we simplify the system down to a model of two terminal stations with four platforms each, then the system should be capable of moving 8k passengers an hour in each direction, regardless of the journey time.

    What you do need to achieve the same flow rate at lower speeds is more trains. In our example, a train arrives at each terminus every 7.5 minutes. If the journey takes an hour, that means at any given time there will be 16 trains in motion. If the journey takes two hours, it will require 32 trains in motion to achieve the same throughput.

    You also will have 6 trains sat in platforms at any given time.

    Laws of diminishing returns do apply here - you need a total of 38 trains on the system for a two hour journey, 22 trains for a one hour journey, 14 trains for a 30 min journey, 10 trains for a 15 min journey. If the journey is instantaneous, you still need a minimum of 8 trains.
    Service runs every 30 minutes - turn around time is 15 minutes.

    If the train takes 75 minutes it's sat in the platform for 15 minutes and can turn around. Ideally you want 70 minutes so there is extra built in leeway but the whole point is that you can turn the train around before the next one arrives.

    However, If the train takes 80 minutes, it arrives at x:20 not leaving enough time to turn around and be the the 0:30 - so that means you now need 2 platforms, 1 for the x:30 service which arrived at x:50 and 1 for the x:00 service which arrives at x:20.
    That's only if you are insisting on the trains departing at 00 and 30mins past at each end. If you shift the departures from the one end to 05 and 35 mins past, then it all works again.

    Even if you keep your timings, it only requires one extra train in each terminus at a time, so 4 platforms become 5, not 8.

    That said, given the genius level brains involved, I can entirely believe they demanded trains to depart at at 00 and 30 mins both ends, without considering the additional costs that incurs.
    No it doesn’t because you then need to shift the subsequent journey to x:10 and x:40

    So you start the day at 0:00 and x:30
    First return from Manchester 1:35 and 2:05
    Next return from London 3:10 and 3:40
    Second return from Manchester 4:45 and 5:15
    London 6:20 and 6:50

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 129,783
    Foxy said:

    Labour confirms Burnham to be its Makerfield byelection candidate, after NEC declines to shortlist anyone else

    Huzzah, perfect opportunity to use that Andy Burnham in those shorts photo with the headline ‘He’s winning’.

    That picture is going to be used more times than a cucumber in a women’s prison
    "The thighs the limit" please!
    Actually I’ve remembered that Robert never wants to see that picture again, so you’ve all dodged a bullet there.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 10,245
    tlg86 said:

    Labour confirms Burnham to be its Makerfield byelection candidate, after NEC declines to shortlist anyone else

    Reform going with a more local candidate:

    https://x.com/reformparty_uk/status/2056717880134152269
    Another excellent video.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 61,184

    Foxy said:

    Labour confirms Burnham to be its Makerfield byelection candidate, after NEC declines to shortlist anyone else

    Huzzah, perfect opportunity to use that Andy Burnham in those shorts photo with the headline ‘He’s winning’.

    That picture is going to be used more times than a cucumber in a women’s prison
    "The thighs the limit" please!
    Actually I’ve remembered that Robert never wants to see that picture again, so you’ve all dodged a bullet there.
    Just use it for the morning threads. He’ll never see it.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 5,386
    eek said:

    theProle said:

    eek said:

    theProle said:

    eek said:

    Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander is expected to confirm that HS2 trains will run slower than initially planned, in a bid to cut costs

    So we save what 0.5% of the project cost which will then be spent elsewhere - the whole point of the speed was that it provided a sensible turn round time against a timetable so we needed fewer platforms at both ends

    Edit the speed partly came from if we do it in x minutes we can get away with 4 platforms rather than 8.
    How does the maths on the platforms work, because that doesn't seem nearly right.

    Surely the limiting factor on each terminal platform is how long it takes for everyone to disembark, the train to be cleaned/catering restocked etc, and the passengers going the other way to embark.

    Let's say it takes 30mins to turn round a train with 1k passengers. Each platform can therefore handle 2k pax/hr in each direction (although inevitably, you won't ever hit peak flow both ways at the same time, as people will want to commute into London in the morning, and back home at night).

    If we simplify the system down to a model of two terminal stations with four platforms each, then the system should be capable of moving 8k passengers an hour in each direction, regardless of the journey time.

    What you do need to achieve the same flow rate at lower speeds is more trains. In our example, a train arrives at each terminus every 7.5 minutes. If the journey takes an hour, that means at any given time there will be 16 trains in motion. If the journey takes two hours, it will require 32 trains in motion to achieve the same throughput.

    You also will have 6 trains sat in platforms at any given time.

    Laws of diminishing returns do apply here - you need a total of 38 trains on the system for a two hour journey, 22 trains for a one hour journey, 14 trains for a 30 min journey, 10 trains for a 15 min journey. If the journey is instantaneous, you still need a minimum of 8 trains.
    Service runs every 30 minutes - turn around time is 15 minutes.

    If the train takes 75 minutes it's sat in the platform for 15 minutes and can turn around. Ideally you want 70 minutes so there is extra built in leeway but the whole point is that you can turn the train around before the next one arrives.

    However, If the train takes 80 minutes, it arrives at x:20 not leaving enough time to turn around and be the the 0:30 - so that means you now need 2 platforms, 1 for the x:30 service which arrived at x:50 and 1 for the x:00 service which arrives at x:20.
    That's only if you are insisting on the trains departing at 00 and 30mins past at each end. If you shift the departures from the one end to 05 and 35 mins past, then it all works again.

    Even if you keep your timings, it only requires one extra train in each terminus at a time, so 4 platforms become 5, not 8.

    That said, given the genius level brains involved, I can entirely believe they demanded trains to depart at at 00 and 30 mins both ends, without considering the additional costs that incurs.
    No it doesn’t because you then need to shift the subsequent journey to x:10 and x:40

    So you start the day at 0:00 and x:30
    First return from Manchester 1:35 and 2:05
    Next return from London 3:10 and 3:40
    Second return from Manchester 4:45 and 5:15
    London 6:20 and 6:50

    I like this one better.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 64,439
    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    Labour confirms Burnham to be its Makerfield byelection candidate, after NEC declines to shortlist anyone else

    Huzzah, perfect opportunity to use that Andy Burnham in those shorts photo with the headline ‘He’s winning’.

    That picture is going to be used more times than a cucumber in a women’s prison
    "The thighs the limit" please!
    Actually I’ve remembered that Robert never wants to see that picture again, so you’ve all dodged a bullet there.
    Just use it for the morning threads. He’ll never see it.
    Your regular reminder that Mind Bleach is a petroleum derived product and has soared in price
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 3,419
    Cyclefree said:

    carnforth said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1e24vxyqnwo

    "The Metropolitan Police will ask the Crown Prosecution Service to consider charging up to 57 individuals and 20 companies over the Grenfell Tower fire disaster.

    In an update at New Scotland Yard, the force said it would submit evidence files to the CPS by the end of September this year."

    I would expect a severe whittling down of those numbers at the CPS...

    Some of the companies responsible no longer legally exist. And some of the people responsible - senior managers in France - shamefully refused to give evidence to the Moore-Bick Inquiry.

    Incidentally Lammy owes a public apology to Mr Justice Moore-Bick: his report is comprehensive, scathing and thoughtful in its treatment of the victims and their families.

    When he presented his report in September 2024, after summarising the report’s main findings, he stated that Part 9 - which set out the causes and times of death of each of the 72 victims - had established those in such a way that the families would not have to go through the process again in inquests. It was a necessary part of the inquiry but it was also an attempt to spare the families further pain and the sensitive way it was addressed in his statement was to his credit. He then read out the names of each of the victims.

    When he was appointed, Lammy said that a white middle class man could not possibly do such an inquiry and he should not have been appointed. Because, of course, what someone looks like is the critical factor when deciding how to assess highly technical evidence, reams of documentation and what witnesses say when questioned.

    This is the sort of nonsense a focus on superficial matters, "identities" and brainless sentimentality rather than character, skills, judgment and thoughtfulness leads to. It is the mirror image of the sort of callous populism Reform offers. What both offer is evidence of how many peoples' brains fall out of their ears when they mouth platitudes without bothering to think. Pretty much our entire political class these days sound like 5 year olds reciting their catechism. Burnham is just the goodie goodie boy in the front row putting his hand up as high as possible in order to get teacher's attention and win the gold star. He's the latest example not a break with this nonsense.
    What Lammy said, at least in his Guardian article, was considerably more nuanced than that, but also
    "I of course congratulate Sir Martin Moore-Bick on a very thorough first phase report that is some 1,000 pages long" David LAmmy Hansard 21/1/20

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/29/grenfell-fire-inquiry-martin-more-bick-justice
    "I sincerely doubt that Moore-Bick has ever visited one of our inner-city tower blocks, but I hope that he will do so soon. I doubt that he has lived in social housing or spent a night in a flat in a high-rise building, but he will now have to stand in the shoes of the people who called Grenfell home, he will have to empathise with their experiences, and he will have to walk alongside them and their families.
    //
    A public inquiry is not like a trial. Those who survived, those who burned to death and their relatives are all victims. The Grenfell families will want reassurance that another posh white man will stand with them and interrogate the authorities on their behalf."
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 60,314
    edited May 19
    https://x.com/alexwickham/status/2056719959061876821

    Reform confirms local plumber, army reservist and former NHS worker Robert Kenyon as its candidate for Makerfield
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 6,136
    edited May 19

    Pulpstar said:

    What an embarrasment HS2 is to the nation. Probably guaranteed a whole heap of lawyers & consultants retirements though.

    I know we shouldn’t speak ill of the dead but this is all Cheryl Gillan’s fault.
    The correct response to the Nimbys was to bury the whole thing in a tunnel. Surely that couldn't have been any more expensive.
    Or have the cojones to tell the NIMBYs to eff off and do it anyway.
    True, although no doubt there would have been endless court cases.

    A tunnel would have cut out all the compulsory purchases, the Nimby stuff (including the bat sh*t and the endless environmental assessments) and put control back in the hands of those building it. It could also have gone in pretty much a straight line (faults permitting).

  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 25,017
    Russia is claiming that Latvia allowed Ukraine to launch drones from its territory. This follows a Romanian jet shooting down a Ukrainian drone that had wandered into Latvian airspace, presumably after being affected by EW.

    If Russia wants to manufacture a cassus belli for an attack on Latvia then it's making a good start.


  • Every credible source I can find is estimating late June to mid July before the effects hit Europe seriously. A lot of countries, including the US, have been bleeding their strategic oil reserves to make up for the Hormuz shortfall, but those reserves are going to bottom out in a month or two.

    How bad it will be is open to question. Anything from £4/litre petrol to "here's your weekly 10l fuel ration" seems possible. We don't really understand how fuel demand destruction on this scale will actually play out.

    I guess as a rough guide you'd expect the hardest hit countries with the most demand destruction to be those that tax fuel the least or, even worse, subsidise it. It's these countries that will suffer the highest percentage rise in fuel costs, and they tend to be the poorer ones. There are already reports of large fuel (and fertiliser) protests in some African countries.
    Yes, it's possible Europe can buy its way out of the worst effects at the expense of poorer countries. But that's still going to mean painfully high petrol and diesel prices. Imagine having to pay £400 to fill up the tank of a large car.

  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 25,017

    Pulpstar said:

    What an embarrasment HS2 is to the nation. Probably guaranteed a whole heap of lawyers & consultants retirements though.

    I know we shouldn’t speak ill of the dead but this is all Cheryl Gillan’s fault.
    The correct response to the Nimbys was to bury the whole thing in a tunnel. Surely that couldn't have been any more expensive.
    Or have the cojones to tell the NIMBYs to eff off and do it anyway.
    True, although no doubt there would have been endless court cases.

    A tunnel would have cut out all the compulsory purchases, the Nimby stuff (including the bat sh*t and the endless environmental assessments) and put control back in the hands of those building it. It could also have gone in pretty much a straight line (faults permitting).

    I'm pretty sure that the Cheryl Gillian bloody expensive tunnels are one of the two main reasons for the overall project ballooning in cost. Surely you'd end up roughly doubling the cost if it was all tunnelled?
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,551

    https://x.com/alexwickham/status/2056719959061876821

    Reform confirms local plumber, army reservist and former NHS worker Robert Kenyon as its candidate for Makerfield

    https://x.com/alexwickham/status/2056719959061876821

    Reform confirms local plumber, army reservist and former NHS worker Robert Kenyon as its candidate for Makerfield

    Stood for them in the seat in 2024. Just elected as councillor in the seat. Looks like a good choice (barring any dodgy social media posts)
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,830

    https://x.com/alexwickham/status/2056719959061876821

    Reform confirms local plumber, army reservist and former NHS worker Robert Kenyon as its candidate for Makerfield

    Risky. As a Reform supporter he's bound to be a bit of a cowboy, so will probably be dogged by stories of shoddy workmanship, hidden leaks and securing pipes with elastic bands.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 57,533

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @shipwreck75.bsky.social‬

    According to Reuters, Iran's new proposal to the US to end the war includes

    - US troops leaving areas close to Iran
    - The US paying war reparations
    - Lifting sanctions on Iran
    - Release Iran's frozen assets
    - Ending the US blockade

    https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/iran-says-peace-proposal-includes-reparations-war-damage-us-troop-withdrawal-2026-05-19/

    I don't see the Strait of Hormuz opening this year. It's only another 32 weeks or so, and it's already been closed for 11 and a half.
    Unless Trump does the biggest TACO ever, no it won't re-open. We may need to get used to fuel being expensive and possibly rationed.
    I must confess that I am very surprised that the closure is not having a bigger effect already. Some of the reports issued have proven somewhat alarmist about the impact, at least here in the west. There are suggestions that the effect on Asia has been greater. Will we be able to continue like this, with higher fuel costs and more expensive food but basically unchanged or is there a stepping point at which things are going to get a lot more serious? I see quite a lot of conflicting data points on this.
    Every credible source I can find is estimating late June to mid July before the effects hit Europe seriously. A lot of countries, including the US, have been bleeding their strategic oil reserves to make up for the Hormuz shortfall, but those reserves are going to bottom out in a month or two.

    How bad it will be is open to question. Anything from £4/litre petrol to "here's your weekly 10l fuel ration" seems possible. We don't really understand how fuel demand destruction on this scale will actually play out.
    The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is reducing by 10 million barrels a week, but still has 375 million left so not running out any time soon.
  • FossFoss Posts: 2,927
    edited May 19

    https://x.com/alexwickham/status/2056719959061876821

    Reform confirms local plumber, army reservist and former NHS worker Robert Kenyon as its candidate for Makerfield

    https://x.com/alexwickham/status/2056719959061876821

    Reform confirms local plumber, army reservist and former NHS worker Robert Kenyon as its candidate for Makerfield

    Stood for them in the seat in 2024. Just elected as councillor in the seat. Looks like a good choice (barring any dodgy social media posts)
    He lost by 5,399 votes last time. That doesn't seem an impossible number to overcome, especially if he ramps the 'Labour just see us as human playthings for their little games' angle.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 6,136
    edited May 19

    Pulpstar said:

    What an embarrasment HS2 is to the nation. Probably guaranteed a whole heap of lawyers & consultants retirements though.

    I know we shouldn’t speak ill of the dead but this is all Cheryl Gillan’s fault.
    The correct response to the Nimbys was to bury the whole thing in a tunnel. Surely that couldn't have been any more expensive.
    Or have the cojones to tell the NIMBYs to eff off and do it anyway.
    True, although no doubt there would have been endless court cases.

    A tunnel would have cut out all the compulsory purchases, the Nimby stuff (including the bat sh*t and the endless environmental assessments) and put control back in the hands of those building it. It could also have gone in pretty much a straight line (faults permitting).

    I'm pretty sure that the Cheryl Gillian bloody expensive tunnels are one of the two main reasons for the overall project ballooning in cost. Surely you'd end up roughly doubling the cost if it was all tunnelled?
    I don't know - other countries seem to be able to build tunnels without stupid costs.

    I imagine it would have been expensive but it would have cut out a lot of lawyerly faff.

    The Gotthard base tunnel (35 miles) cost about $12bn and I can't imagine the geology is any better. At that price you could tunnel to Edinburgh for what HS2 seems to have cost so far.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 60,314

    https://x.com/alexwickham/status/2056719959061876821

    Reform confirms local plumber, army reservist and former NHS worker Robert Kenyon as its candidate for Makerfield

    https://x.com/alexwickham/status/2056719959061876821

    Reform confirms local plumber, army reservist and former NHS worker Robert Kenyon as its candidate for Makerfield

    Stood for them in the seat in 2024. Just elected as councillor in the seat. Looks like a good choice (barring any dodgy social media posts)
    It's also a good choice because if he doesn't win, they can just say it was down to the Burnham effect, and if he does win, beating a big name opponent with the existing local candidate will make the victory even sweeter.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 23,399

    Pulpstar said:

    What an embarrasment HS2 is to the nation. Probably guaranteed a whole heap of lawyers & consultants retirements though.

    I know we shouldn’t speak ill of the dead but this is all Cheryl Gillan’s fault.
    The correct response to the Nimbys was to bury the whole thing in a tunnel. Surely that couldn't have been any more expensive.
    Or have the cojones to tell the NIMBYs to eff off and do it anyway.
    Trouble is that any politicians who tell Nimbies to eff off are likely to be told to eff off at the next election.
  • theProletheProle Posts: 2,027
    eek said:

    theProle said:

    eek said:

    theProle said:

    eek said:

    Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander is expected to confirm that HS2 trains will run slower than initially planned, in a bid to cut costs

    So we save what 0.5% of the project cost which will then be spent elsewhere - the whole point of the speed was that it provided a sensible turn round time against a timetable so we needed fewer platforms at both ends

    Edit the speed partly came from if we do it in x minutes we can get away with 4 platforms rather than 8.
    How does the maths on the platforms work, because that doesn't seem nearly right.

    Surely the limiting factor on each terminal platform is how long it takes for everyone to disembark, the train to be cleaned/catering restocked etc, and the passengers going the other way to embark.

    Let's say it takes 30mins to turn round a train with 1k passengers. Each platform can therefore handle 2k pax/hr in each direction (although inevitably, you won't ever hit peak flow both ways at the same time, as people will want to commute into London in the morning, and back home at night).

    If we simplify the system down to a model of two terminal stations with four platforms each, then the system should be capable of moving 8k passengers an hour in each direction, regardless of the journey time.

    What you do need to achieve the same flow rate at lower speeds is more trains. In our example, a train arrives at each terminus every 7.5 minutes. If the journey takes an hour, that means at any given time there will be 16 trains in motion. If the journey takes two hours, it will require 32 trains in motion to achieve the same throughput.

    You also will have 6 trains sat in platforms at any given time.

    Laws of diminishing returns do apply here - you need a total of 38 trains on the system for a two hour journey, 22 trains for a one hour journey, 14 trains for a 30 min journey, 10 trains for a 15 min journey. If the journey is instantaneous, you still need a minimum of 8 trains.
    Service runs every 30 minutes - turn around time is 15 minutes.

    If the train takes 75 minutes it's sat in the platform for 15 minutes and can turn around. Ideally you want 70 minutes so there is extra built in leeway but the whole point is that you can turn the train around before the next one arrives.

    However, If the train takes 80 minutes, it arrives at x:20 not leaving enough time to turn around and be the the 0:30 - so that means you now need 2 platforms, 1 for the x:30 service which arrived at x:50 and 1 for the x:00 service which arrives at x:20.
    That's only if you are insisting on the trains departing at 00 and 30mins past at each end. If you shift the departures from the one end to 05 and 35 mins past, then it all works again.

    Even if you keep your timings, it only requires one extra train in each terminus at a time, so 4 platforms become 5, not 8.

    That said, given the genius level brains involved, I can entirely believe they demanded trains to depart at at 00 and 30 mins both ends, without considering the additional costs that incurs.
    No it doesn’t because you then need to shift the subsequent journey to x:10 and x:40

    So you start the day at 0:00 and x:30
    First return from Manchester 1:35 and 2:05
    Next return from London 3:10 and 3:40
    Second return from Manchester 4:45 and 5:15
    London 6:20 and 6:50

    That's easy, slow the trains down a little bit more, put one extra train into the route, problem solved.

    There is no way to make this require any more than one extra platform at worst case.

    I don’t really understand why they need 4 platforms for a 30 mins service with 15mins turnaround - they should be able to manage with a maximum of 2 platforms even in the worst case scenario where a train always arrives 14mins before the next one is due to depart.

    A 15 min service interval with 30 mins layover would be a different story, but as long as the layover is less than the service interval, you should never need more than 2 platforms.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 17,877
    edited May 19

    https://x.com/alexwickham/status/2056719959061876821

    Reform confirms local plumber, army reservist and former NHS worker Robert Kenyon as its candidate for Makerfield

    From an interview with Kenyon with Manchester Evening News pre the 2024 general election. he's an independent minded courageous chap:

    However, Wigan Warriors fan Mr Kenyon says he joined Reform UK because he felt ‘politically homeless’. Because of his part-time military background Mr Kenyon refuses to discuss Reform leader Nigel Farage’s controversial view that the West provoked Russian president Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine by the eastern expansion of the European Union and NATO.

    “I am not allowed to voice an opinion of stuff like that,” he said. But otherwise, he said: “I had a look around and thought who I would like to vote for and, like many people, I felt the other parties had let people down. I felt we needed a clean slate.


    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/its-like-driving-over-surface-29413985.amp
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 15,801

    Russia is claiming that Latvia allowed Ukraine to launch drones from its territory. This follows a Romanian jet shooting down a Ukrainian drone that had wandered into Latvian airspace, presumably after being affected by EW.

    If Russia wants to manufacture a cassus belli for an attack on Latvia then it's making a good start.

    Latvia are easily the most belligerent of the Baltics so there might be something in it - who the fuck knows?

    The droning of Moscow, particularly the apartment block on Mosfilmovskaya, is a problem for VVP. He got called a 'Гандон' (lit. Condom meaning weak and ineffectual) by some think tank wanker on TV last week. Certain factions are definitely running out patience for his cautious and legalistic probity over prosecuting the SMO. '
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 41,579



    Every credible source I can find is estimating late June to mid July before the effects hit Europe seriously. A lot of countries, including the US, have been bleeding their strategic oil reserves to make up for the Hormuz shortfall, but those reserves are going to bottom out in a month or two.

    How bad it will be is open to question. Anything from £4/litre petrol to "here's your weekly 10l fuel ration" seems possible. We don't really understand how fuel demand destruction on this scale will actually play out.

    I guess as a rough guide you'd expect the hardest hit countries with the most demand destruction to be those that tax fuel the least or, even worse, subsidise it. It's these countries that will suffer the highest percentage rise in fuel costs, and they tend to be the poorer ones. There are already reports of large fuel (and fertiliser) protests in some African countries.
    Yes, it's possible Europe can buy its way out of the worst effects at the expense of poorer countries. But that's still going to mean painfully high petrol and diesel prices. Imagine having to pay £400 to fill up the tank of a large car.

    I think there's likely to be alternative supply routes and pipeline capacity constructed before we get anywhere near that stage.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 60,548
    Dura_Ace said:

    Russia is claiming that Latvia allowed Ukraine to launch drones from its territory. This follows a Romanian jet shooting down a Ukrainian drone that had wandered into Latvian airspace, presumably after being affected by EW.

    If Russia wants to manufacture a cassus belli for an attack on Latvia then it's making a good start.

    Latvia are easily the most belligerent of the Baltics so there might be something in it - who the fuck knows?

    The droning of Moscow, particularly the apartment block on Mosfilmovskaya, is a problem for VVP. He got called a 'Гандон' (lit. Condom meaning weak and ineffectual) by some think tank wanker on TV last week. Certain factions are definitely running out patience for his cautious and legalistic probity over prosecuting the SMO. '
    Durex_Ace!
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 15,801
    algarkirk said:

    https://x.com/alexwickham/status/2056719959061876821

    Reform confirms local plumber, army reservist and former NHS worker Robert Kenyon as its candidate for Makerfield

    From an interview with Kenyon with Manchester Evening News pre the 2024 general election. he's an independent minded courageous chap:

    However, Wigan Warriors fan Mr Kenyon says he joined Reform UK because he felt ‘politically homeless’. Because of his part-time military background Mr Kenyon refuses to discuss Reform leader Nigel Farage’s controversial view that the West provoked Russian president Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine by the eastern expansion of the European Union and NATO.

    “I am not allowed to voice an opinion of stuff like that,” he said. But otherwise, he said: “I had a look around and thought who I would like to vote for and, like many people, I felt the other parties had let people down. I felt we needed a clean slate.


    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/its-like-driving-over-surface-29413985.amp
    He seems, on first encounter, to be as thick as fuck. I guess Big Nige didn't want another MattGPT/Gorton and Denton disaster so they've gone for a bit of authentic, gritty, local stupidity.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 25,017
    algarkirk said:

    https://x.com/alexwickham/status/2056719959061876821

    Reform confirms local plumber, army reservist and former NHS worker Robert Kenyon as its candidate for Makerfield

    From an interview with Kenyon with Manchester Evening News pre the 2024 general election. he's an independent minded courageous chap:

    However, Wigan Warriors fan Mr Kenyon says he joined Reform UK because he felt ‘politically homeless’. Because of his part-time military background Mr Kenyon refuses to discuss Reform leader Nigel Farage’s controversial view that the West provoked Russian president Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine by the eastern expansion of the European Union and NATO.

    “I am not allowed to voice an opinion of stuff like that,” he said. But otherwise, he said: “I had a look around and thought who I would like to vote for and, like many people, I felt the other parties had let people down. I felt we needed a clean slate.


    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/its-like-driving-over-surface-29413985.amp
    He's a much better candidate than Matt Goodwin.
This discussion has been closed.