Who will be the official opposition after the next election? – politicalbetting.com
Who will be the official opposition after the next election? – politicalbetting.com
The prediction above is from the Electoral Calculus website using the most recent More In Common poll, I’d expect the polling to change between now and the 2029 general election but I am not sure where.
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there would need to be deal.by Tories and Labour to keep them.out
Utterly stupid comment to an 82 year old
He probably won't, but he could.
Pro-EU Labour figures very disappointed by this as they had thought Burnham was running to prove a Rejoin candidate could win in Makerfield and Brexit could be reversed. “Shambles,” says one
https://x.com/alexwickham/status/2056376674040623451
Kemi has faults but is very much in the ascendency but the brand is broken
What we are seeing, even on here, is an increasing acceptance that Kemi is one to watch
Time will tell but Burnham v Kemi at the dispatch box will be very interesting
In England, the Tories lost 60% of their seats outside of London, starting from a low base. In Scotland and Wales, they were similarly thumped.
Anyone who thinks they are on the way back is delusional.
Although I would expect significant tightening and some formal / informal pacts to play a role - nonetheless it is a legitimate question and potential betting opportunity. Assuming Reform win do they govern with the Tories, and if they do will there be enough Labour MPs left to count as HM opposition. You would assume they still would, but who knows in this febrile environment. What if Reform govern on their own?
There's going to be some hypothetical polls in the next few days/weeks asking how people would vote with a Burnham led Labour Party, it's going to be heartbreaking for the Tories due to projection and the fact hypothetical polls are usually bobbins.
Dan Neidle's got a piece on that due this week.
The notion that he is the only hope of preventing the country descending into Faragism is preposterous.
His speech in Leeds was very interesting as he attacked Blairs university mantra and wants FE for the young
His comments on the EU seemed almost Starmer like
DON'T YOU UNDERSTAND? THAT MAKES IT OK.
EVERYTHING'S OK. NO NEED TO PANIC.
BECAUSE THEY WON HARLOW.
Good to have humour
And they eat our acorns from the oak tree our son planted in our front garden 50 years ago
He's running to prove he can win and thus ought to replace Keir Starmer who it appears cannot.
Germany’s Merkel criticizes EU for not talking to Russia
Meanwhile Mr Arrogant will skulk back to his office in Manchester with his tail between his legs.
Hence the belief that Burnham can improve things for Labour, and the belief that replacing Kemi won't improve things for the Tories.
Both these beliefs may be mistaken, but that is what the pattern of politics is, at the moment.
Did they forget that this seat voted 2/1 leave the EU?
You may get Rayner who is northern but would be a disaster
If Labour win the next general election though the Conservatives still have a good chance of remaining official opposition if they have held most of their seats from a defeated Reform and gained a few middle class Labour seats. Dare I say on a forced choice some Tories would prefer Labour to win the next general election rather than Reform if the Conservatives can't win it
To anyone who wants to feel old:
The song “Three Lions”, with the lyric “30 years of hurt”, is now itself 30 years old.
It’s wierd to think of things before you were born. The moon landings finished only five years before i was born, but it might as well be five decades for all I know.
When you forget to switch accounts before posting
Celebrities have called for an end to the ban on gnomes at the Chelsea fliower show, according to the Guardian.
Ms Badenoch AD
No she's not Arrogant Delusion
So good to Conservatives like HYUFD changing tune and praising the benefits of spraying govt funding at deprived town centres.
(Just as long as you ignore everywhere else, such as the arc from Norfolk to the Isle of Wight, Lancashire towns, etc.)
Mrs Foxy unkindly named him Billy Gnomates.
https://x.com/whitesundesert/status/2056342001323299240?s=20
Meanwhile
"The head of Ethiopia's imperial dynasty is also living in London social housing."
https://x.com/baylissbaghdad/status/2056345306367697236?s=20
This is the next scandal waiting to explode. Social housing in London is being gamed by foreigners, everyone in local govt knows this. It is run by foreigners for foreigners, sucking money out of the UK
I was told five years ago: about this
https://x.com/JoshAllanTweets/status/2056360809060515964?s=20
An interesting point is that the evangelicals surveyed had a very internationalist orientation, and a strong desire to separate church and politics, even though the one may inform the other. I'd be interested to know how that has changed since the paper came out in 2018.
https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10111923/3/Gaddini_Submission_JCR_ Identities in Flux. Final Revision.pdf
I ask: What does it mean to be British and evangelical? How do these religious and national identities interact with each other? And most importantly, how did this interaction change during the referendum and Trump’s election? By investigating how evangelical British identity altered during these two important political events, this article brings granular attention to one of the most overlooked aspects of the British referendum: religion.
Labour were in power for a third of that (13) Burnham and MP for near half (16), He was in government for a quarter or so (9) and a minister for 5!
No wonder he lost before. Who comes out and says I was part of a government taking us in the wrong first but didn't say so?
Credit for Hillsborough legislation, but pushing PFI, voting for student fees, being in the treasury when Northern rock failed and being a virtual cheer leader for the War in Iraq. The last thing he should be doing is making people look back.
Peter.
But then that's the way life goes.
It has perfect ingredients, migrants, fraud, welfare, foreigners, corruption, and native Brits losing out - twice over. Not only are Britons kicked off the council houding queue so African royals and millionaire terrorists can have a nice pied a terre in Zone 1, native Brits ALSO pay for this, through their taxes
For Reform, scandals don't get much better
The people complaining about it will be called racist and the problem deemed we don’t build enough.
When we do build they’re not always available. Must have been thousands of translators.
https://www.camdennewjournal.co.uk/article/private-flats-taken-off-market-and-set-up-for-afghan-refugees
😃😃😃😃
https://x.com/robertjenrick/status/2056279047919874415?s=61
The alternative is an even bigger explosion of anger, further down the line. And it will be decidedly less democratic
25 years ago, Labour wanted an ever-growing share of people to go to university, but now the message to them is that they can go to the back of the queue and commute in from zone 27 while people their taxes are paying for get to live in prime areas.
We no longer have a high trust, well integrated society, we have sectarian groups sucking illegally off the mass of taxpayers. As a result we will soon abandon the welfare state as we've known it, because people will refuse to pay for it
They're mostly part of the government was overseeing this five years ago when you knew about it.
As for bollocks. Where is Farage? He's gone to ground after someone asked him a difficult question.
"Plans for a solar farm across 35 hectares of land in Wakefield have been given the go-ahead despite objections.
The 86-acre development will see panels installed across five parcels of green belt land at Owlers Farm, between Ossett and Kirkhamgate."
It's a gentle dig at your Kemi-fandom, Big_G.
Nothing to take offence at.
Understand the Reform chairman reshuffle has taken place because the party is preparing for the possibility of another by-election in the coming months... and I'm not talking about those in Makerfield or Scotland
Reform would do well to add it all up and turn it into a personal tax bill for an average household per year. I expect it will look like a pretty big number.
I don't want the British version to be PM even briefly.
However I always look at every roof in the land and this why not use those? And especially all those warehouses and industrial estates etc.
It's finally saying, up yours.
We have no constituency polling yet. We have only the Ipsos survey for the North West.
Burnham's approval rating is 48%, compared to 30% for Farage. I imagine that Burnham will match that 48% in Makerfield, and Farage will exceed 30%,.
OTOH, Labour has 22% approval in the NW, whereas Reform has 31%. I expect that in Makerfield, Reform's rating will be higher than 31%.
Sot, it will come down to whether people will wish to bash Labour, or will they be willing to go for a popular Labour candidate.
About five years ago a rightwing journalist told me how he got red-pilled. It was exactly this. He was a liberal lefty and he was sent to do a piece on social housing in London. And slowly and surely he uncovered the enormous scale of the fraud, how half of London social housing goes to foreigners, how half of that (or whatever) is illegally sublet. And all because quite a lot of local government is now a sectarian mafia - see Tower Hamlets, et al. do you think they are carefully allocating social housing to the needy? Or giving it to their family and friends at the mosque to make loads of money?
The entire nation is being scammed, on a huge scale. In the end my friend dropped the story because, he said, it depressed him too much!