Labour remain the favourites for the Makerfield by-election – politicalbetting.com
Labour remain the favourites for the Makerfield by-election – politicalbetting.com
Punters appear unmoved by Andy Burnham’s pro Rejoin comments last night. This isn’t a surprise to me given how pretty much every poll recently has the voters thinking Brexit was a bad idea and would choose to reverse it.
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More important will be
1. If and how the Greens run (ditto Tories)
2. The actual Reform candidate
3. If Starmer/Streeting subtly undermine The Chosen One (coz they can)
That sentiment has definitely not gone away - hence the massive Reform win in the locals
Farage’s job is to switch the debate back to migration. Talking about the EU will help that. Farage just has to say “so you want Freedom of Movement again, Andy?”
I think Starmer had the right balance currently in terms of his EU reset . It gives something to those pro EU without becoming too divisive for those that voted to Leave .
When you look at polling on whether to rejoin it’s not the headline figure that’s important.
So the figure for rejoin according to YouGov is 55% but that drops to 36% when you caveat that with losing the UKs previous opt outs in terms of Schengen , the Euro and the rebate.
And in terms of government priorities 44% think it’s the wrong priority v 37% who think it should be .
I don’t think there’s an issue with putting it in a future Labour manifesto with the explicit understanding that the terms of re-joining are clearly laid out and agreed beforehand with the EU , something the Leave side failed to do with Brexit.
You can’t find many people more pro EU than me but I think this conversation is for down the road and not now.
For no reason that I can think of, I don't expect Starmer to try to undermine Burnham's chances.
There won’t be One Big Treaty for terms to be put in.
Rupert Lowe is convinced that Nigel Farage came up with a plot to see Rupert Lowe imprisoned and that would have seen Rupert Lowe murdered in prison.
At the general election, outside of Great Yarmouth, I do not expect Restore to trouble Reform but at by-elections they could.
Then if you lose your money, at least you can have a laugh at Burnham.
https://x.com/tendar/status/2055889228223926736
https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/2055922392103539111
https://x.com/wartranslated/status/2055942787988594868
https://x.com/angelshalagina/status/2055917479566729588
(To be absolutely clear, I don't think he is).
You're probably closer to this dynamic than others, I'd be interested to hear you expand on your statement.
Unfortunately we are in thrall to the red-wall leavers who believe (possibly correctly) that they call the shots after Brexit and nobody has the guts to tell them that we can't keep spending money we haven't got and they are not going to be given the moon on a stick. We are in decline but they and they will probably go on to elect Farage and finish the job.
Besides, I don’t think we’d have much choice. It would be the EU’s way of locking us in forever, so no Brexit 2.0
But it isn’t ever gonna happen. The obstacles in the way of Rejoining are absolutely enormous
(Even if it has no basis in logic, fact or what Burnham actually thinks. It scratches the itch while not committing, and I think 90% of the UK would agree that the Norwegians tend to be broadly sensible so it's a great vibe).
He’s said his view is long term that there is a “case for it”. I don’t think the people in the constituency will suddenly decide they don’t like Burnham because of this.
In reality the UK could kick the Euro can far down the road as you can put in tests to join that you can never pass but most of the public don’t do nuance or grey areas . The stay out campaign will hammer the Euro issue .
Farage is a huge national figure. Lowe is a minnow. Farage will be in Makerfield campaigning. Burnham in turn will focus on Reform - coz he has to. They’re the enemy. They just took all the council seats here. This by election has two and only two contenders
I expect Restore to get a few hundred votes. Unlikely to tip any balance
We probably will have one anyways, though.
Basically, life has not been kind or even fair for a lot of people and the main parties haven't fixed it or even shown much interest in the problems of day to day existence. Hence the appeal of NOTA or populists or blaming the scapegoat du jour. After all, even if the new lot screw up, how can it be worse than under the old parties?
What this means for Makerfield is that Brexit won't help much. It's about whether the scapegoat du jour is still Europe or Starmer personally or governments generally.
I supported FOM. But we have left now and I don’t want it back.
Conversely, of course, if they manage to save their deposit, then that's a clear sign something is happening for them, and we might want to take them more seriously.
Much depends on what Burnham does as PM if he wins . These good approval ratings could soon head south if he can’t meet what IMO are undue expectations.
If Reform win I still don’t see it as being terminal to Labour .
Whoever on PB last night tipped Bulgaria - many thanks!
BF have now paid my small winnings and next week's curry night is mainly paid for.
But still not many (assuming this data is up to date, the BBC do not give a year).
Head and shoulders above the rest.
(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
On today’s EU excitement. Brexit is no longer a touchstone issue, even in heavy leave areas. The view is “we voted for it, but they didn’t deliver it”. People have moved on. Immigration, huge issue. Brexit. No one mentions the word now
https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/2055909637749121040
LOL
What does anyone know?
“NEW: We showed a representative sample of British adults an image of Rupert Lowe and asked them to identify him
92% of the public failed to do so or do not know who Rupert Lowe is. That is an *increase* from 86% this time last year
@JLPartnersPolls of 2,242 UK adults @gbnews”
https://x.com/jamesjohnson252/status/2023801397138047248?s=46
But it is an exponential number compared to the absolute zero of my youth.
There was nobody of any kind who was non-white at my Primary or Junior school.
I think more salient is whether there is a migrant hostel in or near the constituency.
I guess my question is motivated by the underlying belief that both Greens and Reform are still NOTA as well as positive platforms to vote for, and Restore could become NOTNOTAs with a few good efforts in Makerfield.
However I have no idea. I was bemused by Restore's performance in Great Yarmouth; I assumed on little info that they would perform less well even there.
Apart from having very low immigration and house prices it is pretty much average.
The controversial checks, termed financial risk assessments by the Gambling Commission, could be given the green light by the regulator at its board meeting on Thursday, despite serious concerns around the pilot, which has highlighted contradictory information being returned on the same bettors. Bookmakers claim they would be required to request financial documents, such as payslips, from as many as 480,000 customers as a result.
https://www.racingpost.com/news/britain/bookmakers-threaten-legal-challenge-to-affordability-checks-that-could-mean-one-in-five-regular-punters-are-asked-for-financial-documents-asPwH4S2BvQt/
Savour those Bulgaria winnings. The Gambling Commission is not fit for purpose, whatever that purpose might be.
In my area it's hit my opportunities because I can't just work in the EU on an EU based project, but also projects are no longer based in the UK because EU citizens can't just work in the UK.
When the Norwegian lads went on the booze they drank like fishes. Good company, though!
If musicality is what you’re looking for, perhaps Eurovision is the wrong choice.
But as a piece of eurotrash pop, it was a banger
The way out has always been getting a skillset, getting a job, getting a house and then getting a better skillset, job and house.
Now there are ways governments can help people do this but its also dependent upon people helping themslves.
Some, lots even, from deprived backgrounds do so. Including many immigrants both recent and from an earlier immigrant community.
On the other hand others from comfortable background regress down the crap degree, crap job, crap rental route.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GC4rHRMwiOY
If Burnham thinks he can get us back into the EU through the front door...
Sums him up for me. A blank canvass on which people paint their hopes and dreams.
Right now in every sense Burnham is the opposite.
Where is he?
Neither the online bookmakers or the gambling commission are interested in PB type punters, they're both interested in the people addicted to online casinos.
Part of Starmer's failure has been his inability to shout from the rooftops what his achievements have been.
Traditionally old industrial areas would have high unemployment.
Now I'm aware there will be some layabouts claiming incapacity benefits but for those who want to work there are opportunities.
We both have minimal income but substantial assets.
Properly vetted, not a Farage crony, local with a backstory.
If they cannot get it right, after already messing up with Goodwin in Gorton, then it doesn't suggest much likelihood that Reform will competently recruit candidates for the general election.
If we were actually serious about our relationship with the EU we'd move on from arguing about membership, accept that the UK was always a reluctant member, and realise that the kind of relationship we do want is more like the EEA/EFTA, or something bespoke that is very similar. We aren't Federalists, and we never will be, we want to trade and work with the EU, not become part of a United States of Europe. We're "Canadian" not "American".
One example is that the poorest people in society can now spend 27% to 36% of their household income on energy. That is policy - it is the greatest transfer of money from the poor to the rich since the Act of Enclosure.
Voters know this - they aren't stupid. They are not yet able to draw the map of where the money is going - nor has the new right expressed it coherently - but they know it's happening, and they're wisely voting against it.
But otherwise - average pay, average unemployment, lower than average house prices. On paper, purely objectively, that's good.
Bet it doesn't feel that way, though.
As Will Self points out it may be, fairly or otherwise, he embodies the 'proceduralist' state, a kind of bureaucratic careerism without much belief.
Must be annoying for ambitious MPs who didn't flounce off. But shows the power of persistance.
Saul Staniforth
@SaulStaniforth
"Tell us one specific thing [Burnham] will do"
Simons: ".. one of the things he's really committed to.. energy, water, social housing.. have gotten so expensive.. & one of the reasons why.. is that we've privatised a lot of them"
"So with Burnham, nationalise water?"
"No"
lol
https://x.com/saulstaniforth/status/2055933965815480331?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
A quick google suggest the countryside is quiet nice as well and likely improving as the old mining areas are rewilded.
Has there been many new housing developments ?
Do you think they don’t see the news? Go to areas WITH high immigration? Perhaps they go to Birmingham or Bradford or Luton and think: ah, no, not in my area please
Also, as the country Ulsterises and we get white flight, white areas fill up with white people who are fleeing mass migration in their old areas. Cf the cockneys now in very Reform-y Essex
Ben Judah
@b_judah
Rejoiners and Reform are now raising the stakes in Makerfield.
By making Rejoin central to his leadership bid Streeting has set the national conversation onto Europe.
And Reform by making Save Brexit their central message on the doorstep are setting the Makerfield conversation onto Europe.
So if Burnham wins, after refusing to disown his desire to eventually Rejoin today, and winds handsomely it will be a calamity for Brexit by showing 2016 Labour Leave areas have moved on — breaking its spell over British politics and deeply encouraging those pushing to Rejoin.
And should Burnham lose, it will be a calamitous reckoning for Labour proving its traditional electoral coalition no longer works in Five Party Politics and these are now Reform Heartlands where 2016 rules of politics still apply.
https://x.com/b_judah/status/2055936156848533697
If it is a "must have" objections about opt-outs etc will disappear.
But if it's a "nice to have" and we don't do anything, people will have to accept a suboptimal arrangement for the UK. I don't think people have accepted Brexit as the suboptimal outcome. Hence the impasse.
Only the former is in the constituency.
You're right about the countryside.
Wigan is the greenest urban borough in the country. 67% green space!
Much of it is unbuildable due to mine workings which can go back to ancient times. There's evidence the Romans got coal from these parts.
Bulgaria, whatever their merits, weren't playing that sophisticated game. The UK put in an entry much better than some of the really asinine fare we've done over the years and actually did deserve a bit better than it got.
I think there is a white flight argument - but it's young-ish, woke people like me moving from 99% white areas like the north of Scotland to those with high immigration, because that's where the jobs are. It's self-selection.
I'm not sure it even works in theory, but I'll take a bold stab and say it doesn't stand a chance in practice. For a start, don't you have to pay market rates to bring all these things back into public ownership? And if there is an opportunity to do it (eg let Thames Water go bust and pick up the pieces for nothing), the shareholders (like the Canadian pension fund) will kick up merry hell. Personally I think that's their problem - they took the risk, but I would be shocked if Burnham let Thames Water go to the wall.