Including the two upcoming Scottish by-elections, fully 8 of the last 18 by-elections, and 5 of the last 7, will have been in the North West of England. It houses just over 10% of parliamentary seats.
So psephologists - if we look at MPs who became major officer of state between elections - how did that affect their results in the next election?Might give us an idea of the "Ooh we get the PM" factor versus the "He won't have time for us" factor. Also do we have figures on by elections where someone has voluntarily taken the Chiltern Hundreds - I hear it hits the incumbent party. Anyone got any figures?
I feel like it would be hard in many cases to separate out a hit from natural party support changes vs a noticeable decline which might be do to the incumbent quitting, but it is an interesting question.
Burnham will need to get at least 16,000 votes to win the byelection in my opinion, because Reform will get almost all theirs and a fair proportion of the Conservative vote, as well as a number of disaffected Labour-ites.
Labour + LD + Greens were 22,500 at the last General Election.
This is a unique high profile high stakes by election with the opportunity to elect a defacto PM and beat Starmer
It's not irrelevant, in fact I'd say it is pretty relevant, it just may not be determinative, despite Burnham not being a natural Reform magnet.
I'd agree with the conclusion though, I do think a big chunk of those Reform votes could be swayed by getting to pick the next PM.
I don't. I don't think there are many Reform voters thinking 'if only Andy Burnham were PM rather than SKS I wouldn't be so discontented'. Burnham will get out the Labour non-voters, but he's not convincing Angry Ron from Bryn.
I think Burnham will win Makerfield and see off Reform; it's a good choice. I think his risk of losing would be much greater if he chose a seat in which the Greens were serious contenders,
I can not think of any by election in history which has been so implicity a by election where if the governing party candidate wins, it will effectively oust the governing PM.
All models go out the window. This is sui generis.
It is. Do members of the Cabinet campaign for the election if the Labour candidate (assuming it's Burnham) when Burnham's pitch is to replace the PM?
Another complicating factor. What if Burnham wins by a tiny margin. That’s quite a plausible outcome
It means the PM is at terrible risk of losing his seat at the next GE
The whole gamble is that he can turn things around nationally. If he can do that, then his seat will be safe next time. If he cannot they're all screwed anyway.
It’s generally regarded as highly suboptimal for the leader to have an extremely marginal constituency. For multiple reasons
Badenoch has a marginal constituency, but she’s probably the first major party leader in that position since the war?
Another complicating factor. What if Burnham wins by a tiny margin. That’s quite a plausible outcome
It means the PM is at terrible risk of losing his seat at the next GE
The whole gamble is that he can turn things around nationally. If he can do that, then his seat will be safe next time. If he cannot they're all screwed anyway.
This is a unique high profile high stakes by election with the opportunity to elect a defacto PM and beat Starmer
That’s ridiculous. They are certainly not “irrelevant”
This is a very Reform-y seat. These voters might well be furious at Labour and might relish the chance to humiliate Labour in a very public, spectacular way
It’s a massive gamble for Burnham. What’s he going to say to these Reform voters about immigration?
That topic is his biggest blind spot. He cannot engage with it.
In an era where politicians aren’t held in high regard hats off to Josh Simon’s for sacrificing his career for what he sees as the greater good .
On the contrary. I would assume (but don’t know) that he desperately needs family time right now. So he has traded an understandable absence from Westminster for a big favour (and who knows what promises) from Burnham - clearly they can only be cash if he becomes PM.
That strikes me as a canny investment not a “sacrifice”
I can not think of any by election in history which has been so implicity a by election where if the governing party candidate wins, it will effectively oust the governing PM.
All models go out the window. This is sui generis.
It is. Do members of the Cabinet campaign for the election if the Labour candidate (assuming it's Burnham) when Burnham's pitch is to replace the PM?
But nationally, Reform voters are as likely to consider Andy Burnham to be "acceptable" as next PM as "unacceptable":
Opinium, fieldwork 6-8 May: "If Keir Starmer resigned as leader of the Labour Party, how acceptable or unacceptable would each of the following be to you if they became the next Labour leader? Andy Burnham:" By 2024 Vote, Acceptable%, Unacceptable% Lab 64 13 Reform 38 38 Green 50 21 Con 41 35 Lib Dem 56 13 Overall 43 23 https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/voting-intention-6th-may-2026/
This by-election will effectively be a contest to determine whether Andy Burnham should succeed Keir Starmer as PM, should he be allowed to stand. So unless the opinion of 2024 Reform voters in Makerfield is markedly more anti Andy Burnham than is that in the rest of the country, Burnham should be confident of winning the by-election.
This is a unique high profile high stakes by election with the opportunity to elect a defacto PM and beat Starmer
It's not irrelevant, in fact I'd say it is pretty relevant, it just may not be determinative, despite Burnham not being a natural Reform magnet.
I'd agree with the conclusion though, I do think a big chunk of those Reform votes could be swayed by getting to pick the next PM.
I don't. I don't think there are many Reform voters thinking 'if only Andy Burnham were PM rather than SKS I wouldn't be so discontented'. Burnham will get out the Labour non-voters, but he's not convincing Angry Ron from Bryn.
Disagreed. Voters are on a spectrum and there will be some voters pissed off with Starmer, wanting change and willing to vote Reform in the locals to express that . . . who are also willing to vote Burnham to get it.
Vote Reform in this by election you express discontent but do not vote to oust Starmer.
This is a chance to tactically vote to beat Farage and Reform, which would be extremely welcome
It's tricky one for everyone who is neither Labour nor Reform. Assuming Burnham is the candidate, he can only win with strong labour support + tactical voting from others - LD, Greens, Tories.
However, if you are Tory/Green/LD etc, which one do you want?
If Reform beat Burnham they look even more like the party of the next government. If Burnham beats Reform (and becomes PM) Labour look like the party that can stop Farage being PM well ahead of Green/Tories/LDs.
Not for me
As a conservative I want Farage and Reform beaten
As will all but the most die hard LD and Green voters. Honestly, those parties might as well not bother to stand
It does put the Greens on an interesting spot. Step aside, even only implicitly, and it makes their "we're not really a party, just an anti-Starmerism pressure group" line too blatant. Go back to your constituencies and prepare a lovely vegan tagine. Fight properly, and Burnham might lose to Reform.
It puts Burnham in on an interesting spot. What does he say that wins in not metrowoke Makerfield and then with the metrowoke Labour membership?
It's a seat, and if he can tread the needle, he may be worthy, but it might not be the seat he wanted. The Fates are as clever and cruel as always.
I can not think of any by election in history which has been so implicity a by election where if the governing party candidate wins, it will effectively oust the governing PM.
All models go out the window. This is sui generis.
It is. Do members of the Cabinet campaign for the election if the Labour candidate (assuming it's Burnham) when Burnham's pitch is to replace the PM?
I think Burnham will win Makerfield and see off Reform; it's a good choice. I think his risk of losing would be much greater if he chose a seat in which the Greens were serious contenders,
Excellent point. The fact there isn’t much of a lefty vote to squeeze (or be overtaken by) is perversely a good thing here.
Turnout is going to be incredibly important. 50% last time…
Another complicating factor. What if Burnham wins by a tiny margin. That’s quite a plausible outcome
It means the PM is at terrible risk of losing his seat at the next GE
Given the polling, given it's a midterm by-election, if Burnham wins this by-election he will have pulled off a miracle and you'd expect him to hold the seat comfortably at the general election.
That’s very risky re. Burnham. Can see whole thing blowing up in his face as presumably a chunk of the electorate will combine to vote against
Against who though?
I think the electorate will combine to vote against Starmer.
Surely the funniest way to vote against Starmer is to send another Reform MP to the Commons, preferably with a massive majority. That way you damage Starmer, and get to heap ordure on the head of that pompous idiot Burnham all at the same time.
As I think I've said before, if I lived in a Lab/Green marginal, I would vote Green in this situation, on the basis that one more Green MP will do far less damage to the country that making that fool Burnham PM. I wouldn't be surprised if some unusual types voted Reform tactically in this seat for the same reason.
32, and a Harvard graduate. In 20 years he could be a contender. Why throw it away now for this dork?
Erm, I see you have a visceral hatred for Mr Burnham.
Rattled that he might actually revive this failing Labour Party? You should be.
Since when have I been hostile to any party except the Conservatives and Reform? But no, I do believe twice failed Burnham is far too entitled to become PM from outside the HoC. He should have weighed up his options in 2024
Why should a youngster with such an impressive resume throw it all away for Burnham?
As others have said, at least Burnham has EXHIBITED THE CULLIONS
But what a risk
It might come down to a contest between those who want to kick Starmer - vote for Burnham - and those who want to kick the entire government - vote for Reform
Yes, a risk, but it's dwarfed by the prize.
He wins and he's almost certainly the next PM in fairly short order. Number 10 Downing St. Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. It gets no bigger.
You have to go for that when it's there in reach.
And if he loses? Well he tried. Do something else.
Well worth a gamble. I think he probably wins, as even those who want to in general kick the government may think forcing out the PM by Burnham getting in is worth it - on the basis they don't think Burnham will meaningfully change Labour's fortunes, which is admittedly a gamble on their part.
Well that's a good point. This is the only by-election I can remember where you can kick the PM by voting for tge candidate from his party. And kicking the PM is generally the biggest driver of by-election voting. Thus, I' ve changed my mind. My estimate of Burnham winning the BE is now 60%.
This is a chance to tactically vote to beat Farage and Reform, which would be extremely welcome
It's tricky one for everyone who is neither Labour nor Reform. Assuming Burnham is the candidate, he can only win with strong labour support + tactical voting from others - LD, Greens, Tories.
However, if you are Tory/Green/LD etc, which one do you want?
If Reform beat Burnham they look even more like the party of the next government. If Burnham beats Reform (and becomes PM) Labour look like the party that can stop Farage being PM well ahead of Green/Tories/LDs.
Not for me
As a conservative I want Farage and Reform beaten
As will all but the most die hard LD and Green voters. Honestly, those parties might as well not bother to stand
It does put the Greens on an interesting spot. Step aside, even only implicitly, and it makes their "we're not really a party, just an anti-Starmerism pressure group" line too blatant. Go back to your constituencies and prepare a lovely vegan tagine. Fight properly, and Burnham might lose to Reform.
It puts Burnham in on an interesting spot. What does he say that wins in not metrowoke Makerfield and then with the metrowoke Labour membership?
It's a seat, and if he can tread the needle, he may be worthy, but it might not be the seat he wanted. The Fates are as clever and cruel as always.
The Greens will have absolutely no compunction about causing Burnham to lose to Reform - none.
That’s very risky re. Burnham. Can see whole thing blowing up in his face as presumably a chunk of the electorate will combine to vote against
Against who though?
I think the electorate will combine to vote against Starmer.
Surely the funniest way to vote against Starmer is to send another Reform MP to the Commons, preferably with a massive majority. That way you damage Starmer, and get to heap ordure on the head of that pompous idiot Burnham all at the same time.
As I think I've said before, if I lived in a Lab/Green marginal, I would vote Green in this situation, on the basis that one more Green MP will do far less damage to the country that making that fool Burnham PM. I wouldn't be surprised if some unusual types voted Reform tactically in this seat for the same reason.
Yes. That too. The chance to humiliate all of Labour will be polarising. It might send Tories to Reform
Another complicating factor. What if Burnham wins by a tiny margin. That’s quite a plausible outcome
It means the PM is at terrible risk of losing his seat at the next GE
Given the polling, given it's a midterm by-election, if Burnham wins this by-election he will have pulled off a miracle and you'd expect him to hold the seat comfortably at the general election.
You're overstating the case - it wouldn't be a miracle. It's a Labour-held seat, and always has been.
Now, if Burnham stood in, say, Clacton, and won - then that would be a miracle.
“And a Tory source tells me: “As soon as she heard about this, Kemi instantly demanded this arrangement be stopped. The group leader was suspended with immediate effect. Kemi was clear she would not put up with this sort of nonsense.””
But nationally, Reform voters are as likely to consider Andy Burnham to be "acceptable" as next PM as "unacceptable":
Opinium, fieldwork 6-8 May: "If Keir Starmer resigned as leader of the Labour Party, how acceptable or unacceptable would each of the following be to you if they became the next Labour leader? Andy Burnham:" By 2024 Vote, Acceptable%, Unacceptable% Lab 64 13 Reform 38 38 Green 50 21 Con 41 35 Lib Dem 56 13 Overall 43 23 https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/voting-intention-6th-may-2026/
This by-election will effectively be a contest to determine whether Andy Burnham should succeed Keir Starmer as PM, should he be allowed to stand. So unless the opinion of 2024 Reform voters in Makerfield is markedly more anti Andy Burnham than is that in the rest of the country, Burnham should be confident of winning the by-election.
My guess is that even on a board as cultured as this, less than 10% of us have set foot in Makerfield. I reckon I've set foot in every seat in GM but this one. I can't even think of more than one person I know from Makerfield. I can generalise a bit from what I know of its neighbours and reckon I can make a better stab than most, but - we really need @dixiedean at this point.
Well, I passed through when I did the Kirkby to Wigan rail line in 2017.
I can not think of any by election in history which has been so implicity a by election where if the governing party candidate wins, it will effectively oust the governing PM.
All models go out the window. This is sui generis.
It is. Do members of the Cabinet campaign for the election if the Labour candidate (assuming it's Burnham) when Burnham's pitch is to replace the PM?
It's bonkers!
Will Angela Rayner campaign with Burnham ?
Why not throw her own hat into the ring rather than play from the subs bench for this cockwomble?
i) Andy wins Makerfield, Andy stands for PM, Andy wins ii) Andy loses Makerfield, Angie stands for PM, Angie wins
Wes comes nowhere under either option.
I currently have a mortgage offer, for a offset mortgage no less (they are about a 1% premium over regular repayment), for less than the government is paying on 10 year gilts now.
That's before making one of these idiots PM. The bloodbath afterwards is going to something to see. It's just unfortunate I'm probably going to have to live through it.
32, and a Harvard graduate. In 20 years he could be a contender. Why throw it away now for this dork?
Erm, I see you have a visceral hatred for Mr Burnham.
Rattled that he might actually revive this failing Labour Party? You should be.
Since when have I been hostile to any party except the Conservatives and Reform? But no, I do believe twice failed Burnham is far too entitled to become PM from outside the HoC. He should have weighed up his options in 2024
Why should a youngster with such an impressive resume throw it all away for Burnham?
32, and a Harvard graduate. In 20 years he could be a contender. Why throw it away now for this dork?
Erm, I see you have a visceral hatred for Mr Burnham.
Rattled that he might actually revive this failing Labour Party? You should be.
Since when have I been hostile to any party except the Conservatives and Reform? But no, I do believe twice failed Burnham is far too entitled to become PM from outside the HoC. He should have weighed up his options in 2024
Why should a youngster with such an impressive resume throw it all away for Burnham?
I can not think of any by election in history which has been so implicity a by election where if the governing party candidate wins, it will effectively oust the governing PM.
All models go out the window. This is sui generis.
It is. Do members of the Cabinet campaign for the election if the Labour candidate (assuming it's Burnham) when Burnham's pitch is to replace the PM?
It's bonkers!
Will Angela Rayner campaign with Burnham ?
Why not throw her own hat into the ring rather than play from the subs bench for this cockwomble?
She can ask, but I don't think Big Nige would select Big Ange to be his candidate.
That’s very risky re. Burnham. Can see whole thing blowing up in his face as presumably a chunk of the electorate will combine to vote against
Against who though?
I think the electorate will combine to vote against Starmer.
Surely the funniest way to vote against Starmer is to send another Reform MP to the Commons, preferably with a massive majority. That way you damage Starmer, and get to heap ordure on the head of that pompous idiot Burnham all at the same time.
As I think I've said before, if I lived in a Lab/Green marginal, I would vote Green in this situation, on the basis that one more Green MP will do far less damage to the country that making that fool Burnham PM. I wouldn't be surprised if some unusual types voted Reform tactically in this seat for the same reason.
Yes. That too. The chance to humiliate all of Labour will be polarising. It might send Tories to Reform
I think we can safely assume the majority of Tory voters will switch to Reform. They did so in Gordon and Denton.
My guess is that even on a board as cultured as this, less than 10% of us have set foot in Makerfield. I reckon I've set foot in every seat in GM but this one. I can't even think of more than one person I know from Makerfield. I can generalise a bit from what I know of its neighbours and reckon I can make a better stab than most, but - we really need @dixiedean at this point.
Well, I passed through when I did the Kirkby to Wigan rail line in 2017.
I'm in the 10% having visited this location on a number of occasions as a child:
My guess is that even on a board as cultured as this, less than 10% of us have set foot in Makerfield. I reckon I've set foot in every seat in GM but this one. I can't even think of more than one person I know from Makerfield. I can generalise a bit from what I know of its neighbours and reckon I can make a better stab than most, but - we really need @dixiedean at this point.
Well, I passed through when I did the Kirkby to Wigan rail line in 2017.
But did yoi set foot in it? No, you did not. Whereas it turns out I HAVE been to Makerfield. Making me the board's temporary exit on the place until Dixie arrives.
I am taking a three month sabbatical from PB so I can join Reform and move to Makerfield so I can campaign for Reform in this by-election.
But only if Burnham is the Labour candidate.
I appreciate you may be being satiric. But if you campaign for another party aren't you automatically banned from the Conservative Party?
Satirical.
Satiric
"...Be as satiric as you like. Viewing the world through a microscope is your prerogative. This is a ship of war. I will grind whatever grist the mill requires to fulfil my duty..."
I can not think of any by election in history which has been so implicity a by election where if the governing party candidate wins, it will effectively oust the governing PM.
All models go out the window. This is sui generis.
It is. Do members of the Cabinet campaign for the election if the Labour candidate (assuming it's Burnham) when Burnham's pitch is to replace the PM?
It's bonkers!
Will Angela Rayner campaign with Burnham ?
Why not throw her own hat into the ring rather than play from the subs bench for this cockwomble?
She can ask, but I don't think Big Nige would select Big Ange to be his candidate.
Farage isn't the only cockwomble you know, even if he is the biggest.
As others have said, at least Burnham has EXHIBITED THE CULLIONS
But what a risk
It might come down to a contest between those who want to kick Starmer - vote for Burnham - and those who want to kick the entire government - vote for Reform
Yes, a risk, but it's dwarfed by the prize.
He wins and he's almost certainly the next PM in fairly short order. Number 10 Downing St. Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. It gets no bigger.
You have to go for that when it's there in reach.
And if he loses? Well he tried. Do something else.
Well worth a gamble. I think he probably wins, as even those who want to in general kick the government may think forcing out the PM by Burnham getting in is worth it - on the basis they don't think Burnham will meaningfully change Labour's fortunes, which is admittedly a gamble on their part.
Well that's a good point. This is the only by-election I can remember where you can kick the PM by voting for tge candidate from his party. And kicking the PM is generally the biggest driver of by-election voting. Thus, I' ve changed my mind. My estimate of Burnham winning the BE is now 60%.
Surely this is a very novel BE, because literally every option is kicking the PM - about the only thing you can't do is vote for a candidate who supports him.
32, and a Harvard graduate. In 20 years he could be a contender. Why throw it away now for this dork?
Erm, I see you have a visceral hatred for Mr Burnham.
Rattled that he might actually revive this failing Labour Party? You should be.
Since when have I been hostile to any party except the Conservatives and Reform? But no, I do believe twice failed Burnham is far too entitled to become PM from outside the HoC. He should have weighed up his options in 2024
Why should a youngster with such an impressive resume throw it all away for Burnham?
32, and a Harvard graduate. In 20 years he could be a contender. Why throw it away now for this dork?
Erm, I see you have a visceral hatred for Mr Burnham.
Rattled that he might actually revive this failing Labour Party? You should be.
Since when have I been hostile to any party except the Conservatives and Reform? But no, I do believe twice failed Burnham is far too entitled to become PM from outside the HoC. He should have weighed up his options in 2024
Why should a youngster with such an impressive resume throw it all away for Burnham?
FPT: for Brixian - the Dartmouth Music Fetival starts with the kids tomorrow afternoon, so if not a parent it starts about 5.30pm and continues until 10pm Sunday. 7 venues around town, plus a "Fringe" of many of the Dartmouth pubs.
It's a blast. Very varied lineup of about 100 acts.
As others have said, at least Burnham has EXHIBITED THE CULLIONS
But what a risk
It might come down to a contest between those who want to kick Starmer - vote for Burnham - and those who want to kick the entire government - vote for Reform
Yes, a risk, but it's dwarfed by the prize.
He wins and he's almost certainly the next PM in fairly short order. Number 10 Downing St. Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. It gets no bigger.
You have to go for that when it's there in reach.
And if he loses? Well he tried. Do something else.
Well worth a gamble. I think he probably wins, as even those who want to in general kick the government may think forcing out the PM by Burnham getting in is worth it - on the basis they don't think Burnham will meaningfully change Labour's fortunes, which is admittedly a gamble on their part.
Well that's a good point. This is the only by-election I can remember where you can kick the PM by voting for tge candidate from his party. And kicking the PM is generally the biggest driver of by-election voting. Thus, I' ve changed my mind. My estimate of Burnham winning the BE is now 60%.
Surely this is a very novel BE, because literally every option is kicking the PM - about the only thing you can't do is vote for a candidate who supports him.
An opportunity for a joke candidate to stand on a pro-Starmer platform and get ~0 votes.
This is a unique high profile high stakes by election with the opportunity to elect a defacto PM and beat Starmer
That’s ridiculous. They are certainly not “irrelevant”
This is a very Reform-y seat. These voters might well be furious at Labour and might relish the chance to humiliate Labour in a very public, spectacular way
It’s a massive gamble for Burnham. What’s he going to say to these Reform voters about immigration?
That topic is his biggest blind spot. He cannot engage with it.
Since your Tory friends were moved on, the story has changed dramatically - noting that recent data does carry significant uncertainty
In 2019, the Tory + Brexit Party vote was higher than Labour. It's very losable in a by-election.
It is: it's a massive risk by Burnham.
This would be very high on the Reform target list.
On the other hand, if he does win it, he's proved himself capable of seeing off Reform (in Greater Manchester at least).
His pitch has appeal to many people who might otherwise protest by voting for Reform.
And not voting for Burnham would be like voting to end a drama series half way through its run. I reckon there will be enough voters wanting to see how the story ends, to vote him through to the next episode.
I don't buy that. I'm enjoying this just as much as everyone else, but this drama ends when Burnham becomes PM. By voting against him here we stretch out the drama a bit longer. He can't get there at the second hurdle, that's not how these things work. He needs at least another couple of creative failures.
Could Reform ask Sunday Times bestseller Goodwin to stand again. The bad loss joke is funny but wasn't it the case that if the G&D result had been repeated nationally Reform would win a general election? Whereas they would have been well short based on the local election results.
32, and a Harvard graduate. In 20 years he could be a contender. Why throw it away now for this dork?
Erm, I see you have a visceral hatred for Mr Burnham.
Rattled that he might actually revive this failing Labour Party? You should be.
Since when have I been hostile to any party except the Conservatives and Reform? But no, I do believe twice failed Burnham is far too entitled to become PM from outside the HoC. He should have weighed up his options in 2024
Why should a youngster with such an impressive resume throw it all away for Burnham?
Another complicating factor. What if Burnham wins by a tiny margin. That’s quite a plausible outcome
It means the PM is at terrible risk of losing his seat at the next GE
Given the polling, given it's a midterm by-election, if Burnham wins this by-election he will have pulled off a miracle and you'd expect him to hold the seat comfortably at the general election.
You're overstating the case - it wouldn't be a miracle. It's a Labour-held seat, and always has been.
Now, if Burnham stood in, say, Clacton, and won - then that would be a miracle.
Sure, I alternate wildly between hyperbole and understatement, and yet. If we imagine that the incumbent had died of a heart attack, and that the by-election wasn't part of Burnham's March on Westminster, then the by-election would be the most pedestrian of gains for Reform. They only need a swing of 6.7%.
I have big doubts about Burnham - he's lost two leadership contests badly, I think he's the leadership contender most likely to pull off a Liz Truss, he's a smarmy git - but if he does win this by-election it will be seriously impressive.
32, and a Harvard graduate. In 20 years he could be a contender. Why throw it away now for this dork?
Erm, I see you have a visceral hatred for Mr Burnham.
Rattled that he might actually revive this failing Labour Party? You should be.
Since when have I been hostile to any party except the Conservatives and Reform? But no, I do believe twice failed Burnham is far too entitled to become PM from outside the HoC. He should have weighed up his options in 2024
Why should a youngster with such an impressive resume throw it all away for Burnham?
32, and a Harvard graduate. In 20 years he could be a contender. Why throw it away now for this dork?
Erm, I see you have a visceral hatred for Mr Burnham.
Rattled that he might actually revive this failing Labour Party? You should be.
Since when have I been hostile to any party except the Conservatives and Reform? But no, I do believe twice failed Burnham is far too entitled to become PM from outside the HoC. He should have weighed up his options in 2024
Why should a youngster with such an impressive resume throw it all away for Burnham?
This is a unique high profile high stakes by election with the opportunity to elect a defacto PM and beat Starmer
That’s ridiculous. They are certainly not “irrelevant”
This is a very Reform-y seat. These voters might well be furious at Labour and might relish the chance to humiliate Labour in a very public, spectacular way
It’s a massive gamble for Burnham. What’s he going to say to these Reform voters about immigration?
That topic is his biggest blind spot. He cannot engage with it.
Since your Tory friends were moved on, the story has changed dramatically - noting that recent data does carry significant uncertainty
The public have felt that immigration is too high for about 30 years (basically since it stopped being ~0). I'm not sure that being it back down to 2014 levels will be as warmly received as you seem to think. You may recall there was a massive vote in 2016 in no small part because people wanted less immigration?
Let youse all into a little secret though it may doxx me. My Mam and late Dad proposed and seconded Andy Burnham to be the candidate in Leigh back in 2001. That ward is now in Makerfield. He's already been MP for two of the eight wards for quite some time. On my Mam's phone contacts first name is A for Andy.
This is a unique high profile high stakes by election with the opportunity to elect a defacto PM and beat Starmer
It's not irrelevant, in fact I'd say it is pretty relevant, it just may not be determinative, despite Burnham not being a natural Reform magnet.
I'd agree with the conclusion though, I do think a big chunk of those Reform votes could be swayed by getting to pick the next PM.
I don't. I don't think there are many Reform voters thinking 'if only Andy Burnham were PM rather than SKS I wouldn't be so discontented'. Burnham will get out the Labour non-voters, but he's not convincing Angry Ron from Bryn.
This is right.
On the other hand, there are a lot of Labour non-voters. (Plus a pool of Green and LibDems to fish in.)
My forecast -after due consideration- is a very narrow Burnham victory, with everybody else nowhere. Something like 48/44.
He's close to evens Next PM now which implies clear odds on for the by-election.
But imagine if he is crushed by Reform. Labour’s most popular candidate for PM. That means a Reform government is on the way
Or imagine the opposite. The boost to Labour and blow to Reform if he walks it. Or even just wins.
This distills, previews and accelerates the bigger battle. It's absolutely huge. Just could not be huger.
I think you are both overstating it actually.
If Reform wins it's a major embarrassment to Labour. And if Burnham wins it all depends on if he becomes PM. And then what he does. Events of the next three years will be the true decider.
Let youse all into a little secret though it may doxx me. My Mam and late Dad proposed and seconded Andy Burnham to be the candidate in Leigh back in 2001. That ward is now in Makerfield. He's already been MP for two of the eight wards for quite some time. On my Mam's phone contacts first name is A for Andy.
Which would explain why he’s going for this constituency - can’t really run “carpetbagger” against the ( partial ) former MP
Breaking; Burnham to get the OK from the NEC. Starmer won’t stop him standing.
As predicted. By me and others. Starmer has lost control
Starmer's best chance of survival is now that Burnham loses the by-election. Absolute scenes!
It is magnificent
Skyr is toast whatever happens, as I see it. The fact he can no longer control the NEC is yet another milestone on his slow road out of power
Even if Burnham loses the BE does anyone seriously believe Starmer can limp on indefinitely into the future? Someone else will challenge him. Probably Rayner. And they will win
My guess is that even on a board as cultured as this, less than 10% of us have set foot in Makerfield. I reckon I've set foot in every seat in GM but this one. I can't even think of more than one person I know from Makerfield. I can generalise a bit from what I know of its neighbours and reckon I can make a better stab than most, but - we really need @dixiedean at this point.
Well, I passed through when I did the Kirkby to Wigan rail line in 2017.
But did yoi set foot in it? No, you did not. Whereas it turns out I HAVE been to Makerfield. Making me the board's temporary exit on the place until Dixie arrives.
Is Rainford in the seat?
I alighted at Rainford if only to "reprise" the section between there and Kirkby soon after Headbolt Lane opened two years back. (Ie. Kirkby is no longer a terminus for Merseyrail or the Wigan line).
Makerfield is a good test for Andy Burnham. If he is to revive the Labour Party then he has to be able to beat Reform in his backyard. FWIW I think he will - quite easily, Not least because if Makerfield elects Burnham then Starmer is toast.
This is a unique high profile high stakes by election with the opportunity to elect a defacto PM and beat Starmer
That’s ridiculous. They are certainly not “irrelevant”
This is a very Reform-y seat. These voters might well be furious at Labour and might relish the chance to humiliate Labour in a very public, spectacular way
It’s a massive gamble for Burnham. What’s he going to say to these Reform voters about immigration?
That topic is his biggest blind spot. He cannot engage with it.
Since your Tory friends were moved on, the story has changed dramatically - noting that recent data does carry significant uncertainty
We've gone over this hundreds of times. 1) They're not friends of mine. They were shit. 2) That's not the aspect to immigration that people care about. The problem can be typified as small boats full of unskilled and sometimes criminal immigrants from MNE.
Giid luck arguing that that problem has been solved.
So psephologists - if we look at MPs who became major officer of state between elections - how did that affect their results in the next election?Might give us an idea of the "Ooh we get the PM" factor versus the "He won't have time for us" factor. Also do we have figures on by elections where someone has voluntarily taken the Chiltern Hundreds - I hear it hits the incumbent party. Anyone got any figures?
I feel like it would be hard in many cases to separate out a hit from natural party support changes vs a noticeable decline which might be do to the incumbent quitting, but it is an interesting question.
I feel it would be only right & proper for everybody's expenses for an unnecessary by-election like this to be funded by the party who chose to put the state and the other parties to this expense in the first place.
He's close to evens Next PM now which implies clear odds on for the by-election.
But imagine if he is crushed by Reform. Labour’s most popular candidate for PM. That means a Reform government is on the way
Or imagine the opposite. The boost to Labour and blow to Reform if he walks it. Or even just wins.
This distills, previews and accelerates the bigger battle. It's absolutely huge. Just could not be huger.
The media circus around Farage campaigning against the King of the North in the latter's fiefdom will be something else. Real toe-to-toe stuff, eyeballs bulging, etc.
When did we last have a by-election as consequential as this?
As others have said, at least Burnham has EXHIBITED THE CULLIONS
But what a risk
It might come down to a contest between those who want to kick Starmer - vote for Burnham - and those who want to kick the entire government - vote for Reform
Yes, a risk, but it's dwarfed by the prize.
He wins and he's almost certainly the next PM in fairly short order. Number 10 Downing St. Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. It gets no bigger.
You have to go for that when it's there in reach.
And if he loses? Well he tried. Do something else.
Well worth a gamble. I think he probably wins, as even those who want to in general kick the government may think forcing out the PM by Burnham getting in is worth it - on the basis they don't think Burnham will meaningfully change Labour's fortunes, which is admittedly a gamble on their part.
Well that's a good point. This is the only by-election I can remember where you can kick the PM by voting for tge candidate from his party. And kicking the PM is generally the biggest driver of by-election voting. Thus, I' ve changed my mind. My estimate of Burnham winning the BE is now 60%.
He's close to evens Next PM now which implies clear odds on for the by-election.
But imagine if he is crushed by Reform. Labour’s most popular candidate for PM. That means a Reform government is on the way
Or imagine the opposite. The boost to Labour and blow to Reform if he walks it. Or even just wins.
This distills, previews and accelerates the bigger battle. It's absolutely huge. Just could not be huger.
I think you are both overstating it actually.
If Reform wins it's a major embarrassment to Labour. And if Burnham wins it all depends on if he becomes PM. And then what he does. Events of the next three years will be the true decider.
I think if he does win, it will be very hard to stop him becoming Prime Minister. He was, after all, the man who saw of Reform in one of their top targets.
With that said, the events after he wins (if he does) will determine 2029.
Let's say SKS wants to hang on. He's the king of process. What can he do? Blocking Burnham would precipitate the challenges from other candidates and he'd lose to Ange or Ed. I'd say his best route is to delay the BE for as long as possible. Frenzy subsides, Reform win. SKS wins. The timing is in the gift of Jonathan Reynolds - who's married to SKS's political director and a Starmer loyalist.
If Burnham hadn’t found a seat I think we’d be looking at our first female Labour PM . We may still do if he loses but I’m going to go out on a limb and think he’s going to win the seat comfortably.
I wonder what Angela Rayner makes of it all .
One thing that’s a blessed relief is we won’t be subjected to the return of Ed M . So I’ll take the win and move on .
This is a unique high profile high stakes by election with the opportunity to elect a defacto PM and beat Starmer
It's not irrelevant, in fact I'd say it is pretty relevant, it just may not be determinative, despite Burnham not being a natural Reform magnet.
I'd agree with the conclusion though, I do think a big chunk of those Reform votes could be swayed by getting to pick the next PM.
I don't. I don't think there are many Reform voters thinking 'if only Andy Burnham were PM rather than SKS I wouldn't be so discontented'. Burnham will get out the Labour non-voters, but he's not convincing Angry Ron from Bryn.
This is right.
On the other hand, there are a lot of Labour non-voters. (Plus a pool of Green and LibDems to fish in.)
My forecast -after due consideration- is a very narrow Burnham victory, with everybody else nowhere. Something like 48/44.
I think there will be huge momentum behind Burnham, especially if he can present himself as an insurgent promising change.
Reform will flatter to deceive as they did in Caerphilly and Gorton & Denton.
This is a unique high profile high stakes by election with the opportunity to elect a defacto PM and beat Starmer
That’s ridiculous. They are certainly not “irrelevant”
This is a very Reform-y seat. These voters might well be furious at Labour and might relish the chance to humiliate Labour in a very public, spectacular way
It’s a massive gamble for Burnham. What’s he going to say to these Reform voters about immigration?
That topic is his biggest blind spot. He cannot engage with it.
Since your Tory friends were moved on, the story has changed dramatically - noting that recent data does carry significant uncertainty
No-one cares about NET migration. They care about brown people coming here. White people leaving is another BAD THING.
He's close to evens Next PM now which implies clear odds on for the by-election.
But imagine if he is crushed by Reform. Labour’s most popular candidate for PM. That means a Reform government is on the way
Or imagine the opposite. The boost to Labour and blow to Reform if he walks it. Or even just wins.
This distills, previews and accelerates the bigger battle. It's absolutely huge. Just could not be huger.
I think you are both overstating it actually.
If Reform wins it's a major embarrassment to Labour. And if Burnham wins it all depends on if he becomes PM. And then what he does. Events of the next three years will be the true decider.
I think if he does win, it will be very hard to stop him becoming Prime Minister. He was, after all, the man who saw of Reform in one of their top targets.
With that said, the events after he wins (if he does) will determine 2029.
We all fell in love with Tobermory the womble once - why not him?
Democracy is about more than Burnham could ever offer. But hang on Tobermory.. I may be on to something.
If Burnham hadn’t found a seat I think we’d be looking at our first female Labour PM . We may still do if he loses but I’m going to go out on a limb and think he’s going to win the seat comfortably.
I wonder what Angela Rayner makes of it all .
One thing that’s a blessed relief is we won’t be subjected to the return of Ed M . So I’ll take the win and move on .
All the chess moves including Rayner's and Streeting's statements suggest a Burnham coronation is on the cards, voters of Makerfield permitting.
So possibly not the rats in a sack that it has appeared to be over the week.
Comments
Including the two upcoming Scottish by-elections, fully 8 of the last 18 by-elections, and 5 of the last 7, will have been in the North West of England. It houses just over 10% of parliamentary seats.
(Makerfield, Gorton & Denton, Runcorn & Helsby, Blackpool S, Rochdale, Chester, Stretford & Urmston, West Lancashire)
Labour + LD + Greens were 22,500 at the last General Election.
It's achievable for Burnham, but it's tough.
I would say Reform are the narrow favourites.
Burnham will get out the Labour non-voters, but he's not convincing Angry Ron from Bryn.
I think his risk of losing would be much greater if he chose a seat in which the Greens were serious contenders,
(Sort of)
It's bonkers!
Badenoch has a marginal constituency, but she’s probably the first major party leader in that position since the war?
That strikes me as a canny investment not a “sacrifice”
Opinium, fieldwork 6-8 May:
"If Keir Starmer resigned as leader of the Labour Party, how acceptable or unacceptable would each of the following be to you if they became the next Labour leader? Andy Burnham:"
By 2024 Vote, Acceptable%, Unacceptable%
Lab 64 13
Reform 38 38
Green 50 21
Con 41 35
Lib Dem 56 13
Overall 43 23
https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/voting-intention-6th-may-2026/
This by-election will effectively be a contest to determine whether Andy Burnham should succeed Keir Starmer as PM, should he be allowed to stand. So unless the opinion of 2024 Reform voters in Makerfield is markedly more anti Andy Burnham than is that in the rest of the country, Burnham should be confident of winning the by-election.
Vote Reform in this by election you express discontent but do not vote to oust Starmer.
It puts Burnham in on an interesting spot. What does he say that wins in not metrowoke Makerfield and then with the metrowoke Labour membership?
It's a seat, and if he can tread the needle, he may be worthy, but it might not be the seat he wanted. The Fates are as clever and cruel as always.
Turnout is going to be incredibly important. 50% last time…
As I think I've said before, if I lived in a Lab/Green marginal, I would vote Green in this situation, on the basis that one more Green MP will do far less damage to the country that making that fool Burnham PM. I wouldn't be surprised if some unusual types voted Reform tactically in this seat for the same reason.
Why should a youngster with such an impressive resume throw it all away for Burnham?
Thus, I' ve changed my mind. My estimate of Burnham winning the BE is now 60%.
Now, if Burnham stood in, say, Clacton, and won - then that would be a miracle.
It will hasten the need to change course
That's before making one of these idiots PM. The bloodbath afterwards is going to something to see. It's just unfortunate I'm probably going to have to live through it.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/isispics/26540151513
Whereas it turns out I HAVE been to Makerfield. Making me the board's temporary exit on the place until Dixie arrives.
"...Be as satiric as you like. Viewing the world through a microscope is your prerogative. This is a ship of war. I will grind whatever grist the mill requires to fulfil my duty..."
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/NmAagTNOcX0
Makerfield, eh?
Bloody hell and all that.
My Mum will be made up.
It's a blast. Very varied lineup of about 100 acts.
I'm enjoying this just as much as everyone else, but this drama ends when Burnham becomes PM. By voting against him here we stretch out the drama a bit longer. He can't get there at the second hurdle, that's not how these things work. He needs at least another couple of creative failures.
https://x.com/SarahForRuncorn/status/2054973708322668557
The people of Makerfield deserve a local MP.
Instead, they are being asked to be extras in the Labour Party’s psychodrama.
Burnham does not care whether it is Gorton and Denton, Makerfield or Bootle. He is just desperate to get back to Westminster.
I have big doubts about Burnham - he's lost two leadership contests badly, I think he's the leadership contender most likely to pull off a Liz Truss, he's a smarmy git - but if he does win this by-election it will be seriously impressive.
Only twitch I can recall in Greater Manchester was a singing River Warbler in Wigan.
This distills, previews and accelerates the bigger battle. It's absolutely huge. Just could not be huger.
Never go full Damien McBride
I think that episode cooked his chances of being a minister. At least for some years.
A nebulous but well paid advisor job in a Burnham government beckons, I reckon.
I'm not sure that being it back down to 2014 levels will be as warmly received as you seem to think. You may recall there was a massive vote in 2016 in no small part because people wanted less immigration?
My Mam and late Dad proposed and seconded Andy Burnham to be the candidate in Leigh back in 2001.
That ward is now in Makerfield.
He's already been MP for two of the eight wards for quite some time.
On my Mam's phone contacts first name is A for Andy.
Labour are persuading themselves that he’s some kind of political giant, and the solution to their problems.
I'd be extremely surprised if he loses.
On the other hand, there are a lot of Labour non-voters. (Plus a pool of Green and LibDems to fish in.)
My forecast -after due consideration- is a very narrow Burnham victory, with everybody else nowhere. Something like 48/44.
Has he suddenly got better? Or the competition worse?
If Reform wins it's a major embarrassment to Labour. And if Burnham wins it all depends on if he becomes PM. And then what he does. Events of the next three years will be the true decider.
Skyr is toast whatever happens, as I see it. The fact he can no longer control the NEC is yet another milestone on his slow road out of power
Even if Burnham loses the BE does anyone seriously believe Starmer can limp on indefinitely into the future? Someone else will challenge him. Probably Rayner. And they will win
I alighted at Rainford if only to "reprise" the section between there and Kirkby soon after Headbolt Lane opened two years back. (Ie. Kirkby is no longer a terminus for Merseyrail or the Wigan line).
FWIW I think he will - quite easily, Not least because if Makerfield elects Burnham then Starmer is toast.
1) They're not friends of mine. They were shit.
2) That's not the aspect to immigration that people care about. The problem can be typified as small boats full of unskilled and sometimes criminal immigrants from MNE.
Giid luck arguing that that problem has been solved.
When did we last have a by-election as consequential as this?
Very good. You should be a bookie.
With that said, the events after he wins (if he does) will determine 2029.
Better than Jeffrey Dahmer.
Even though that means Reform wins
Word is. He was nice. Made an effort. But utterly unsuited to the constituency.
If Burnham hadn’t found a seat I think we’d be looking at our first female Labour PM . We may still do if he loses but I’m going to go out on a limb and think he’s going to win the seat comfortably.
I wonder what Angela Rayner makes of it all .
One thing that’s a blessed relief is we won’t be subjected to the return of Ed M . So I’ll take the win and move on .
Which is very pleasing. They are the best kind
Reform will flatter to deceive as they did in Caerphilly and Gorton & Denton.
Democracy is about more than Burnham could ever offer. But hang on Tobermory.. I may be on to something.
So possibly not the rats in a sack that it has appeared to be over the week.