Labour Burnham or no Burnham have literally zero chance of winning this Makerfield by election. Keir should be very pleased if Burnham ends up as the Labour candidate
As others have said, at least Burnham has EXHIBITED THE CULLIONS
But what a risk
It might come down to a contest between those who want to kick Starmer - vote for Burnham - and those who want to kick the entire government - vote for Reform
I think that's exactly right.
It will be very interesting. And I genuinely don't know which way it will go. I can see Burnham hoovering up the Green and LibDem vote. But then again, I can see Reform getting the entire right of centre vote, and a fair number of disaffected Labour-ites.
Labour Burnham or no Burnham have literally zero chance of winning this Makerfield by election. Keir should be very pleased if Burnham ends up as the Labour candidate
"literally zero chance"
Presumably you'll happily offer me 20-1?
There will be better odds elsewhere, so why should he ?
Looking at the makerfield local elections some of the wards weren't even close e.g. Hindley Ref 1832, Lab 750 Ince Ref 1809 Lab 608.
Think the closest was Ashton S but even that was Ref 1572 Lab 1100
It doesn’t matter. True political greats move the needle, they aren’t simply subject to it. It obviously remains to be seen whether Burnham can do so.
Exactly.
Can Burnham move the needle. Can he persuade voters that the problem is not Labour, but Keir? And can he persuade LibDem and Green voters that seeing off Reform is for "the greater good"?
I don't know the answer to that question, but it will be really interesting to watch and find out.
My guess is that even on a board as cultured as this, less than 10% of us have set foot in Makerfield. I reckon I've set foot in every seat in GM but this one. I can't even think of more than one person I know from Makerfield. I can generalise a bit from what I know of its neighbours and reckon I can make a better stab than most, but - we really need @dixiedean at this point.
“And a Tory source tells me: “As soon as she heard about this, Kemi instantly demanded this arrangement be stopped. The group leader was suspended with immediate effect. Kemi was clear she would not put up with this sort of nonsense.””
Well done Kemi! I’m starting to admire her, quite a lot. She’s gaining in confidence - inside the Commons, and beyond. She’s finding herself
Perhaps she will drag me back from Reform. I’m certainly prepared to give her a hearing
Pretty pathetic control freakery. I can understand your being a fan of her backing an unsavoury set of Reform councillors, though.
She’s done exactly what leaders are meant to do. What Starmer does not do. Shown toughness and exerted control
And, really, the Greens are beyond the pale. They are Islamists and communists. A Tory alliance with them will repulse 96% of Tory voters, let alone anyone they hope to attract from Reform
Can't help feeling that Sadiq Khan must be feeling pretty sore about this. Why isn't he the Prince across the water? What's Burnham got that he doesn't?
Unlike many on PB, I quite like Khan and I despise Burnham. But even I can see that the mismatch in charisma is rather in the favour of the latter.
Yes and no. I can imagine an equivalent of George Fouracres SKS for Burnham but not for Khan. Khan seems intrinsically quite serious (and therefore a little boring) whereas Burnham is a bit ludicrous at the best of times. When there is a generally positive sentiment for him that's fine, but it can be destroyed in an instant.
Anyone else think Makerfield iis a No 10 stitch up?
If Starmer's cronies had even a scintilla of the nous of Malcolm Tucker or Francis Underwood I'd believe it.
A very cunning plan. Call Burnham's bluff by making him stand in a Reform target seat and in the process undermine the case for a turn to the left leaving things perfectly aligned for Streeting.
I think Burnham will easily beat Reform under the circumstances.
Would people in the by election want to kick out Starmer and get a local leader as PM? That is the way it will be phrased and it will be a resounding YES.
Anyone else think Makerfield iis a No 10 stitch up?
If Starmer's cronies had even a scintilla of the nous of Malcolm Tucker or Francis Underwood I'd believe it.
A very cunning plan. Call Burnham's bluff by making him stand in a Reform target seat and in the process undermine the case for a turn to the left leaving things perfectly aligned for Streeting.
I think Burnham will easily beat Reform under the circumstances.
Would people in the by election want to kick out Starmer and get a local leader as PM? That is the way it will be phrased and it will be a resounding YES.
Given the aplomb exhibited so far on his handling of the Mandelson files, might Starmer's attempts to hang on become untenable when these get released?
Unlikely. Starmer and Mandelson are different generations and had almost nothing to do with each other. Starmer was a barrister then head of the CPS during New Labour's pomp.
My guess is that even on a board as cultured as this, less than 10% of us have set foot in Makerfield. I reckon I've set foot in every seat in GM but this one. I can't even think of more than one person I know from Makerfield. I can generalise a bit from what I know of its neighbours and reckon I can make a better stab than most, but - we really need @dixiedean at this point.
Just checked - I take it back - Orrell's in the seat. I've been to Orrell. Though Orrell us hardly typical of it.
Anyway, it's quite pleasant to be back on here during another in a long succession of loopy moments here and abroad.
As I mentioned earlier today, partly in total disgust at this revolting sham of a Labour Party, I took myself away from politics and literally went on a circumnavigation of the globe, which was rather fun. I've now bought a place in the Scottish Highlands.
So a 2-year hiatus comes to an end.
I will never ever again vote Labour.* Except that I might if Andy Burnham becomes leader because I really quite like him and he's something that none of the current Cabinet are: you know ... competent.
* To be fair, that's not a difficult decision in Scotland.
Andy Burnham wants this by-election to be a proof of concept election: he will pitch himself as the change candidate, the outsider. Once he has proven he can win in places Labour is losing, he thinks an eventual leadership election poses less jeopardy.
Labour Burnham or no Burnham have literally zero chance of winning this Makerfield by election. Keir should be very pleased if Burnham ends up as the Labour candidate
His chances are closer to 100% than zero IMO.
52/48?
Lol, yes about that.
It resolves to a binary now doesn't it.
1. He wins the seat, proves his chops, returns with unstoppable momentum, replaces Starmer. He is Next PM.
2. He loses and the Burnham bubble is burst. Things proceed without him. He is not Next PM.
And still far from certain as to whether the NEC will allow Burnham to run.
Close to certain imo. I don't think it's politically possible to block him again.
We didn’t think it was politically possible for Starmer to refuse to go, but here we are.
I think it’s entirely possible he has another go at getting his supporters to block Burnham. What has changed in the reasons since they blocked him last time?
I think the blocking might eventually be doomed to fail. But Starmer does seem very bullish with these things, and unwilling to bend.
Let's see - but it would amaze me if Starmer manages to do that a 2nd time in these changed circumstances.
We're going to have a by-election in Manchester deciding the PM, I think.
Incredible script.
I am going to be very interested as to how the public react to this, certainly. I could see it going either way.
One possibility is people are so relieved Starmer is being challenged and there might be an alternative that Burnham wins handily and the country sees things more positively.
But there is a dangerous risk here that this all looks a bit “playing politics” in that someone is being parachuted into a constituency for the pure purpose of becoming PM. It could backfire.
I genuinely don’t know which way it will go.
At this point I think the 2 most likely options are 1) continued in-fighting and party dysfunction with Keir or 2) Burnham doesn't surprise on the downside (and isn't any good)
Anyone else think Makerfield iis a No 10 stitch up?
If Starmer's cronies had even a scintilla of the nous of Malcolm Tucker or Francis Underwood I'd believe it.
I love this theory. It is Machiavellian on the scale of James Cleverly cunningly knocking himself out of the Tory leadership. But surely not, surely not.
Labour Burnham or no Burnham have literally zero chance of winning this Makerfield by election. Keir should be very pleased if Burnham ends up as the Labour candidate
His chances are closer to 100% than zero IMO.
52/48?
Lol, yes about that.
It resolves to a binary now doesn't it.
1. He wins the seat, proves his chops, returns with unstoppable momentum, replaces Starmer. He is Next PM.
2. He loses and the Burnham bubble is burst. Things proceed without him. He is not Next PM.
I have (1) as favourite.
A vote for Burnham is the surest way of getting rid of Starmer. I suspect that will swing it for him.
As others have said, at least Burnham has EXHIBITED THE CULLIONS
But what a risk
It might come down to a contest between those who want to kick Starmer - vote for Burnham - and those who want to kick the entire government - vote for Reform
Yes, a risk, but it's dwarfed by the prize.
He wins and he's almost certainly the next PM in fairly short order. Number 10 Downing St. Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. It gets no bigger.
You have to go for that when it's there in reach.
And if he loses? Well he tried. Do something else.
Anyway, it's quite pleasant to be back on here during another in a long succession of loopy moments here and abroad.
As I mentioned earlier today, partly in total disgust at this revolting sham of a Labour Party, I took myself away from politics and literally went on a circumnavigation of the globe, which was rather fun. I've now bought a place in the Scottish Highlands.
So a 2-year hiatus comes to an end.
I will never ever again vote Labour.* Except that I might if Andy Burnham becomes leader because I really quite like him and he's something that none of the current Cabinet are: you know ... competent.
* To be fair, that's not a difficult decision in Scotland.
Labour Burnham or no Burnham have literally zero chance of winning this Makerfield by election. Keir should be very pleased if Burnham ends up as the Labour candidate
His chances are closer to 100% than zero IMO.
52/48?
Lol, yes about that.
It resolves to a binary now doesn't it.
1. He wins the seat, proves his chops, returns with unstoppable momentum, replaces Starmer. He is Next PM.
2. He loses and the Burnham bubble is burst. Things proceed without him. He is not Next PM.
I have (1) as favourite.
A vote for Burnham is the surest way of getting rid of Starmer. I suspect that will swing it for him.
Starmer can destroy that argument by setting out a timetable before the by election.
Burnham should run the whole byelection like a GE campaign along with a manifesto of what a Burnham Labour party would look like. “True Labour” perhaps. If he doesn’t know or cannot articulate what a Burnham-led Labour party would look like, then what’s the point.
Anecdote alert is that my girlfriend from a Reformy part of Birmingham said “oh I would like him as PM” when I told her the news.
The point about Burnham is he has worked across politics and business to create a hugely successful Greater Manchester and he stands out when compared to Rayner and Miliband
He is of the left but would give labour ths best chance for 2029
It does trigger some on here when I have made no bones about my dislike for Starmer as someone not suited to the office of PM, but it is certainly being proved by events
As others have said, at least Burnham has EXHIBITED THE CULLIONS
But what a risk
It might come down to a contest between those who want to kick Starmer - vote for Burnham - and those who want to kick the entire government - vote for Reform
Yes, a risk, but it's dwarfed by the prize.
He wins and he's almost certainly the next PM in fairly short order. Number 10 Downing St. Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. It gets no bigger.
You have to go for that when it's there in reach.
And if he loses? Well he tried. Do something else.
Yes I agree. I’ve found Burnham’s endless careerism and entitlement off-putting. But here he is, risking total humiliation in a tough seat. Fair play to him
Labour Burnham or no Burnham have literally zero chance of winning this Makerfield by election. Keir should be very pleased if Burnham ends up as the Labour candidate
It's good that Reform was in second place last time with 32% of the vote.
This makes it an anti-Reform by election as well as a pro Burnham election.
There will be a lot of Conservatives voting anti-Reform as well as a big squeeze on Lib Dem and Green voters. Burnham will have a personal vote as a successful Manchester Mayor and he also lives in the constituency.
Labour Burnham or no Burnham have literally zero chance of winning this Makerfield by election. Keir should be very pleased if Burnham ends up as the Labour candidate
"literally zero chance"
Presumably you'll happily offer me 20-1?
Thank you for your kind offer but I shall politely decline as I don't bet on politics!
I am offering my opinion. Other views are available 👍
Andy Burnham has asked the NEC for permission for him to stand
Waiting to move until Streeting petered out is very funny, even if I don't really like or understand why there is such a push to anoint Burnham as saviour. I get he is outside the Commons now so is, to a degree, a fresh face despite being an old hand at politics, but the level of support seems disproportionate considering he is a known quantity.
Andy Burnham has asked the NEC for permission for him to stand
Waiting to move until Streeting petered out is very funny, even if I don't really like or understand why there is such a push to anoint Burnham as saviour. I get he is outside the Commons now so is, to a degree, a fresh face despite being an old hand at politics, but the level of support seems disproportionate considering he is a known quantity.
I can not think of any by election in history which has been so implicity a by election where if the governing party candidate wins, it will effectively oust the governing PM.
All models go out the window. This is sui generis.
As others have said, at least Burnham has EXHIBITED THE CULLIONS
But what a risk
It might come down to a contest between those who want to kick Starmer - vote for Burnham - and those who want to kick the entire government - vote for Reform
Yes, a risk, but it's dwarfed by the prize.
He wins and he's almost certainly the next PM in fairly short order. Number 10 Downing St. Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. It gets no bigger.
You have to go for that when it's there in reach.
And if he loses? Well he tried. Do something else.
Well worth a gamble. I think he probably wins, as even those who want to in general kick the government may think forcing out the PM by Burnham getting in is worth it - on the basis they don't think Burnham will meaningfully change Labour's fortunes, which is admittedly a gamble on their part.
In 2019, the Tory + Brexit Party vote was higher than Labour. It's very losable in a by-election.
It is: it's a massive risk by Burnham.
This would be very high on the Reform target list.
On the other hand, if he does win it, he's proved himself capable of seeing off Reform (in Greater Manchester at least).
His pitch has appeal to many people who might otherwise protest by voting for Reform.
And not voting for Burnham would be like voting to end a drama series half way through its run. I reckon there will be enough voters wanting to see how the story ends, to vote him through to the next episode.
Arguably, Starmer is better off letting Burnham run in the by-election:
1) If Burnham is allowed and Reform beat him, then he's dead in the water. Starmer still needs to see off the other candidates, but they may never quite pull the trigger or even lose to him.
2) If Burnham is not allowed to stand, I think that reflects poorly on Starmer and, on the back of a crushing by-election defeat, someone else will take the plunge. Starmer is further weakened and so is even more likely to lose.
Arguably, Starmer is better off letting Burnham run in the by-election:
1) If Burnham is allowed and Reform beat him, then he's dead in the water. Starmer still needs to see off the other candidates, but they may never quite pull the trigger or even lose to him.
2) If Burnham is not allowed to stand, I think that reflects poorly on Starmer and, on the back of a crushing by-election defeat, someone else will take the plunge. Starmer is further weakened and so is even more likely to lose.
To be fair, these are both pretty crappy options.
Part of me wants Starmer to stop Burnham standing because the ensuing blood-letting within Labour would be apocalyptic. And fabulously entertaining
However, I fear it’s unlikely. Starmer is not strong enough. He’s no longer in control of events
I am taking a three month sabbatical from PB so I can join Reform and move to Makerfield so I can campaign for Reform in this by-election.
But only if Burnham is the Labour candidate.
I appreciate you may be being satiric. But if you campaign for another party aren't you automatically banned from the Conservative Party?
Even if there were not there are general rules around suspending or terminating membership of those whose declared opinions or conduct are inconsistent with the wellbeing of the party or likely to bring it into disrepute, and campaigning for another is an easy way to demonstrate that.
Arguably, Starmer is better off letting Burnham run in the by-election:
1) If Burnham is allowed and Reform beat him, then he's dead in the water. Starmer still needs to see off the other candidates, but they may never quite pull the trigger or even lose to him.
2) If Burnham is not allowed to stand, I think that reflects poorly on Starmer and, on the back of a crushing by-election defeat, someone else will take the plunge. Starmer is further weakened and so is even more likely to lose.
To be fair, these are both pretty crappy options.
Part of me wants Starmer to stop Burnham standing because the ensuing blood-letting within Labour would be apocalyptic. And fabulously entertaining
However, I fear it’s unlikely. Starmer is not strong enough. He’s no longer in control of events
I would agree with that. Streeting is not up to it, and the others currently in Parliament either don't want the top job or don't think they would get it, but with so many open about wanting him gone, it is not in his hands. They want to believe Burnham can save them, and are willign to give it a try it seems.
Worked for Mark Carney, in very different circumstances.
Ooh. Makerfield risky for Burnham with that Reform vote. All very interesting.
I keep arguing that the make up of the constituency is irrelevant. If Burnham cannot win a seat like this, he cannot win an election. If Burnham can win a seat like this, then he gets the big mo. It’s a win - win really for Labour.
If he stands, he’s also going to have the Labour by-election machine and tons of activists campaigning for him, even those who might prefer another leader. Provided he leads a competent, spirited campaign he will emerge very well placed to swing straight across into campaigning for the leadership.
If he puts political and electoral reform front and centre of his pitch, there’s also potential to ignite a national debate stretching beyond Labour.
This is a unique high profile high stakes by election with the opportunity to elect a defacto PM and beat Starmer
That’s ridiculous. They are certainly not “irrelevant”
This is a very Reform-y seat. These voters might well be furious at Labour and might relish the chance to humiliate Labour in a very public, spectacular way
It’s a massive gamble for Burnham. What’s he going to say to these Reform voters about immigration?
This is a chance to tactically vote to beat Farage and Reform, which would be extremely welcome
It's tricky one for everyone who is neither Labour nor Reform. Assuming Burnham is the candidate, he can only win with strong labour support + tactical voting from others - LD, Greens, Tories.
However, if you are Tory/Green/LD etc, which one do you want?
If Reform beat Burnham they look even more like the party of the next government. If Burnham beats Reform (and becomes PM) Labour look like the party that can stop Farage being PM well ahead of Green/Tories/LDs.
I take a nap and lo! Burnham does have a seat! Or, at least, a sacrificial lamb. It begins to look as though his triumphal progression to Downing Street is on.
Though Makerfield looks like a proper test of Burnham's ability to win over Reform voters. He could lose that by-election.
So psephologists - if we look at MPs who became major officer of state between elections - how did that affect their results in the next election?Might give us an idea of the "Ooh we get the PM" factor versus the "He won't have time for us" factor. Also do we have figures on by elections where someone has voluntarily taken the Chiltern Hundreds - I hear it hits the incumbent party. Anyone got any figures?
Another complicating factor. What if Burnham wins by a tiny margin. That’s quite a plausible outcome
It means the PM is at terrible risk of losing his seat at the next GE
The whole gamble is that he can turn things around nationally. If he can do that, then his seat will be safe next time. If he cannot they're all screwed anyway.
This is a chance to tactically vote to beat Farage and Reform, which would be extremely welcome
It's tricky one for everyone who is neither Labour nor Reform. Assuming Burnham is the candidate, he can only win with strong labour support + tactical voting from others - LD, Greens, Tories.
However, if you are Tory/Green/LD etc, which one do you want?
If Reform beat Burnham they look even more like the party of the next government. If Burnham beats Reform (and becomes PM) Labour look like the party that can stop Farage being PM well ahead of Green/Tories/LDs.
This is a chance to tactically vote to beat Farage and Reform, which would be extremely welcome
It's tricky one for everyone who is neither Labour nor Reform. Assuming Burnham is the candidate, he can only win with strong labour support + tactical voting from others - LD, Greens, Tories.
However, if you are Tory/Green/LD etc, which one do you want?
If Reform beat Burnham they look even more like the party of the next government. If Burnham beats Reform (and becomes PM) Labour look like the party that can stop Farage being PM well ahead of Green/Tories/LDs.
Not for me
As a conservative I want Farage and Reform beaten
As will all but the most die hard LD and Green voters. Honestly, those parties might as well not bother to stand
All important but not the full story. The normal behaviour of voters during a period of government unpopularity is for that party's voters to not vote. This is Burnham's biggest target - DNV Labour voters. There's probably a sprinkling of Greens and Lib Dems and maybr a few Tories he can squeeze too - though no doubt also some in three categories who will cussedly swing behind Reform. I still think Reform win, but not easily. I wonder who their candidate will be?
I think this is a tough by-election for Burnham to win. I'd think Labour could win a comfortable majority at the next GE of more than 50 and Makerfield would be the sort of seat you'd expect them to lose to Reform.
If Burnham wins this on a by-election, with Labour polling as badly as they are, it would be genuine evidence of his appeal to the voters. It will be fascinating to see how it turns out.
This is a chance to tactically vote to beat Farage and Reform, which would be extremely welcome
It's tricky one for everyone who is neither Labour nor Reform. Assuming Burnham is the candidate, he can only win with strong labour support + tactical voting from others - LD, Greens, Tories.
However, if you are Tory/Green/LD etc, which one do you want?
If Reform beat Burnham they look even more like the party of the next government. If Burnham beats Reform (and becomes PM) Labour look like the party that can stop Farage being PM well ahead of Green/Tories/LDs.
Not for me
As a conservative I want Farage and Reform beaten
As will all but the most die hard LD and Green voters. Honestly, those parties might as well not bother to stand
Agree with that Greens should stand down if its AB
If its any other Lab Candidate Greens will be main challengers to Reform
2.5 Let him stand, hope he loses, then set a timetable if he wins (so that hopefully someone else will win).
Won't work - if Burnham wins it will be treated like a miracle given Labour's current situation, and other candidates won't have any momentum of their own to counter it.
Another complicating factor. What if Burnham wins by a tiny margin. That’s quite a plausible outcome
It means the PM is at terrible risk of losing his seat at the next GE
It does not matter for Burnham any more than it matters for Wes Streeting. If Labour loses the election, the Prime Minister is out on his ear anyway. If Labour recovers to win the election, then this will return to being a safe Labour seat.
This is a unique high profile high stakes by election with the opportunity to elect a defacto PM and beat Starmer
That’s ridiculous. They are certainly not “irrelevant”
This is a very Reform-y seat. These voters might well be furious at Labour and might relish the chance to humiliate Labour in a very public, spectacular way
It’s a massive gamble for Burnham. What’s he going to say to these Reform voters about immigration?
Why has he chosen this seat? It looks terrible for him.
Comments
Not that anyone cares what SLab thinks, least of all the Labour Party.
‘The suggestion below is getting quite the reaction within Scottish Labour
One senior party source said: "This man is an irrelevant dobber."’
https://x.com/kieranpandrews/status/1757382016071286854?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
It will be very interesting. And I genuinely don't know which way it will go. I can see Burnham hoovering up the Green and LibDem vote. But then again, I can see Reform getting the entire right of centre vote, and a fair number of disaffected Labour-ites.
Ref 14223 (51.5%)
Lab 6755 (24.4%)
Grn 2960 (10.7%)
Con 2117 (7.7%)
LD 1029 (3.7%
Ind 554 (2.0)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Makerfield_(constituency)#Boundaries
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Wigan_Metropolitan_Borough_Council_election#Candidates
@Tony_Diver
·
17m
Nigel Farage: “We look forward to the contest and we will throw absolutely everything at it.”
https://x.com/Tony_Diver/status/2054961758331138329
He must be given his chance. He’s taken on a tough seat. Let him test his mettle
Starmer blocking him again would make Starmer look so bad he’d probably get successfully challenged by someone else anyway, the next day
Can Burnham move the needle. Can he persuade voters that the problem is not Labour, but Keir? And can he persuade LibDem and Green voters that seeing off Reform is for "the greater good"?
I don't know the answer to that question, but it will be really interesting to watch and find out.
Rattled that he might actually revive this failing Labour Party? You should be.
@alexwickham
BREAKING: ANDY BURNHAM RUNNING
I can confirm that I will be requesting the permission of the NEC to stand in the Makerfield by-election.
https://x.com/alexwickham/status/2054964443847536718
In last week's council elections, Reform took 24 of the 25 seats up for grabs on Wigan council (where this by-election will take place).
@patrickkmaguire
·
5m
Counterpoint: Keir Starmer on the ballot here. Burnham wins *62 per cent* in Makerfield in 2024 mayoral.
https://x.com/patrickkmaguire/status/2054965588401721564
And, really, the Greens are beyond the pale. They are Islamists and communists. A Tory alliance with them will repulse 96% of Tory voters, let alone anyone they hope to attract from Reform
Gonna need a miracle to win that seat
Would people in the by election want to kick out Starmer and get a local leader as PM? That is the way it will be phrased and it will be a resounding YES.
Has he got the balls Nigel
As I mentioned earlier today, partly in total disgust at this revolting sham of a Labour Party, I took myself away from politics and literally went on a circumnavigation of the globe, which was rather fun. I've now bought a place in the Scottish Highlands.
So a 2-year hiatus comes to an end.
I will never ever again vote Labour.* Except that I might if Andy Burnham becomes leader because I really quite like him and he's something that none of the current Cabinet are: you know ... competent.
* To be fair, that's not a difficult decision in Scotland.
Ailbhe Rea
@PronouncedAlva
Andy Burnham wants this by-election to be a proof of concept election: he will pitch himself as the change candidate, the outsider. Once he has proven he can win in places Labour is losing, he thinks an eventual leadership election poses less jeopardy.
https://x.com/PronouncedAlva/status/2054967350076567901
Reform 14223 votes
Labour 7690 votes
It was well beyond the 50/38 percentage result that EC has for the constituency.
So Burnham has to swing around 3300 voters if he gets the chance. It'll be a challenge for him, but he'll have to take it on.
Now he's out at 15s.
Just ahead of Al Carns, who could be a politician or a pizza for all I know about him.
How quickly things turn...
It resolves to a binary now doesn't it.
1. He wins the seat, proves his chops, returns with unstoppable momentum, replaces Starmer. He is Next PM.
2. He loses and the Burnham bubble is burst. Things proceed without him. He is not Next PM.
I have (1) as favourite.
Any other Lab Candidate gets thrashed by Reform
I think AB loses narrowly unless Reform pick a total liability
He wins and he's almost certainly the next PM in fairly short order. Number 10 Downing St. Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. It gets no bigger.
You have to go for that when it's there in reach.
And if he loses? Well he tried. Do something else.
Anecdote alert is that my girlfriend from a Reformy part of Birmingham said “oh I would like him as PM” when I told her the news.
I think the electorate will combine to vote against Starmer.
He is of the left but would give labour ths best chance for 2029
It does trigger some on here when I have made no bones about my dislike for Starmer as someone not suited to the office of PM, but it is certainly being proved by events
If he wins, he deserves the prize
It's perfect.
This makes it an anti-Reform by election as well as a pro Burnham election.
There will be a lot of Conservatives voting anti-Reform as well as a big squeeze on Lib Dem and Green voters.
Burnham will have a personal vote as a successful Manchester Mayor and he also lives in the constituency.
I think it is odds on that Burnham will win.
I am offering my opinion. Other views are available 👍
All models go out the window. This is sui generis.
And not voting for Burnham would be like voting to end a drama series half way through its run. I reckon there will be enough voters wanting to see how the story ends, to vote him through to the next episode.
1) If Burnham is allowed and Reform beat him, then he's dead in the water. Starmer still needs to see off the other candidates, but they may never quite pull the trigger or even lose to him.
2) If Burnham is not allowed to stand, I think that reflects poorly on Starmer and, on the back of a crushing by-election defeat, someone else will take the plunge. Starmer is further weakened and so is even more likely to lose.
To be fair, these are both pretty crappy options.
Eight Makerfield wards voted last week. Results:
Reform: 50.4%
Labour: 22.7%
Green: 10.9%
Conservative: 9.9%
Lib Dem: 3.8%
Other: 2.2%
However, I fear it’s unlikely. Starmer is not strong enough. He’s no longer in control of events
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/feb/20/labour-minister-falsely-linked-journalists-to-pro-kremlin-network-in-emails-to-gchq
i.e. Labour looking at what the Tories did appointing Liz Truss, and saying we'll have some of that.
i) Andy wins Makerfield, Andy stands for PM, Andy wins
ii) Andy loses Makerfield, Angie stands for PM, Angie wins
Wes comes nowhere under either option.
This is a unique high profile high stakes by election with the opportunity to elect a defacto PM and beat Starmer
Worked for Mark Carney, in very different circumstances.
If he puts political and electoral reform front and centre of his pitch, there’s also potential to ignite a national debate stretching beyond Labour.
This is a very Reform-y seat. These voters might well
be furious at Labour and might relish the chance to humiliate Labour in a very public, spectacular way
It’s a massive gamble for Burnham. What’s he going to say to these Reform voters about immigration?
However, if you are Tory/Green/LD etc, which one do you want?
If Reform beat Burnham they look even more like the party of the next government.
If Burnham beats Reform (and becomes PM) Labour look like the party that can stop Farage being PM well ahead of Green/Tories/LDs.
Though Makerfield looks like a proper test of Burnham's ability to win over Reform voters. He could lose that by-election.
It means the PM is at terrible risk of losing his seat at the next GE
I'd agree with the conclusion though, I do think a big chunk of those Reform votes could be swayed by getting to pick the next PM.
Also think Burnham still loses in NEC 7-3 OR 6-4 Wins if it goes to full NEC rather than the Akehurst Club
As a conservative I want Farage and Reform beaten
@theobertram
Options for the PM:
1. Path of maximum resistance: soldier on, block Burnham, ignore critics and the civil war that ensues
2. Path of stubborn resistance: let him stand (he might not win) but if he wins, fight him (likely in vain)
3. Set a timetable
https://x.com/theobertram/status/2054966763146588180
I still think Reform win, but not easily.
I wonder who their candidate will be?
Labour 45.2%
Reform 31.8%
Tories 10.9%
LibDems 6.8%
Greens 4.4%
EngDems 0.9%
I think this is a tough by-election for Burnham to win. I'd think Labour could win a comfortable majority at the next GE of more than 50 and Makerfield would be the sort of seat you'd expect them to lose to Reform.
If Burnham wins this on a by-election, with Labour polling as badly as they are, it would be genuine evidence of his appeal to the voters. It will be fascinating to see how it turns out.
If its any other Lab Candidate Greens will be main challengers to Reform
Won't work - if Burnham wins it will be treated like a miracle given Labour's current situation, and other candidates won't have any momentum of their own to counter it.