The Wesignation has left punters unimpressed as Burnham surges – politicalbetting.com
The Wesignation has left punters unimpressed as Burnham surges – politicalbetting.com
In the past 24 hours we have seen Andy Burnham, Angela Rayner, Ed Miliband, and Wes Streeting be the favourite in this market, this should serve as your regular reminder the betting markets are frequently, laughably, wrong.
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Unattributed attacks are clearly being coordinated
Not a good look
I just hope his boss is listening.
It depends what you expect from them.
Of course they won't predict what they claim to with any fidelity - if they could, gamblers could be replaced by computers and they would render themselves entirely redundant.
On the other hand, as a resource for what fairly informed people think at any given time, they are invaluable.
The analogy is with futures markets for commodity prices - they move largely in line with current spot prices, but are very imperfectly correlated with spot prices at the expiration dates, because traders are excessively influenced by current mood.
BREAKING: Andy Burnham now has a route back to parliament after Josh Simons, MP for Makerfield announced he would stand down, triggering a byelection, and putting the Greater Manchester mayor in contention to become the next Labour leader.
https://x.com/los_fisher/status/2054959077759828420?s=46
2024: Lab 45%, Reform 32%, Tory 11%, LD7%, Green 4%, Edem 1%
Full credit to Burnham. This is going to be an extremely interesting race:
Be an interesting test of whether the £5mill has traction.
“And a Tory source tells me: “As soon as she heard about this, Kemi instantly demanded this arrangement be stopped. The group leader was suspended with immediate effect. Kemi was clear she would not put up with this sort of nonsense.””
https://x.com/jaheale/status/2054930521155650015?s=46
Well done Kemi! I’m starting to admire her, quite a lot. She’s gaining in confidence - inside the Commons, and beyond. She’s finding herself
Perhaps she will drag me back from Reform. I’m certainly prepared to give her a hearing
ETA: Though he soiled it a bit by going to Harvard afterwards.
On the other hand, if it does win it, then he can say "look, I saw off Reform in one of their strongest constituencies in 2024".
This would be very high on the Reform target list.
On the other hand, if he does win it, he's proved himself capable of seeing off Reform (in Greater Manchester at least).
I must admit, I quite like his cullions here. He's really backing himself.
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Vox pop in Wes's constituency finds Ilford North's answer to Brenda from Bristol: "I don't trust any of them. I think they're all out for themselves so whoever gets in it don't bother me, dear. But I like that Wes Streeting; I like him."
Unfortunately there is no direct link. It is a carousel item on the BBC's news page: "Who would Streeting's constituents prefer as PM?"
I don’t expect the NEC to block this as it will just re-ignite the civil war in the party . There’s no guarantee that Burnham can win this seat but if he can then even putting aside it’s a local one it would show that Burnham can win in what is not exactly a safe seat .
Welease woderick
I think it’s entirely possible he has another go at getting his supporters to block Burnham. What has changed in the reasons since they blocked him last time?
I think the blocking might eventually be doomed to fail. But Starmer does seem very bullish with these things, and unwilling to bend.
My understanding is that this is actually where Burnham lives, so presumably he can count on his own vote at least.
He should have gone for a different seat.
https://www.facebook.com/joshsimonsmp/?locale=en_GB
Burnham Ramblers will be taking on East Thurrock Community in the Eastern League (Step 6) as the latter were promoted
nls-56-club-allocations-202627-v1-140526 (1).pdf
It's definitely not ideal but great for popcorn suppliers.
You said exactly the same thing about Liz Truss. How did that work out?
I am taking a three month sabbatical from PB so I can join Reform and move to Makerfield so I can campaign for Reform in this by-election.
But only if Burnham is the Labour candidate.
I am not sure which way things will go - but what I would say is that the idea Starmer feels he has to do anything has been shown to be incorrect. When confronted with the fact huge numbers of his MPs want him to resign, he has said they will need to challenge him through the Labour Party processes. I don’t think he is incapable of trying to hide behind process once again. In his defence, why should he do everything he can to enable Andy Burnham to try and unseat him?
So it's a shot to nothing.
Win and he not only becomes an MP and heir apparent but he slays Reform balloon.
However, thus has the sniff and smell of Starmer's boys club.
Simons is up Morgans ass...
Give Andy a hospital pass and ask him to gamble.
He could end up politically paralysed or deemed a complete gutless coward
10d Chess.... 10 being the emergency ward
Labour Burnham or no Burnham have literally zero chance of winning this Makerfield by election. Keir should be very pleased if Burnham ends up as the Labour candidate
We're going to have a by-election in Manchester deciding the PM, I think.
Incredible script.
If Starmer's cronies had even a scintilla of the nous of Malcolm Tucker or Francis Underwood I'd believe it.
https://x.com/meganekenyon/status/2054963654311715273?s=46
This seat looks like a massive risk.
Given he only really has one shot at this, might it have been better to wait a while and try harder to persuade someone else to resign?
I can understand your being a fan of her backing an unsavoury set of Reform councillors, though.
But there's still a few independent events that need to go in his favour. Including NEC approval. So just over evens is probably about right until he clears more hurdles.
@DPJHodges
Key thing to the Burnham challenge. To win the seat he has to be able to say explicitly he is coming back to seek to lead the Labour Party in a new direction. Voters will respect and respond to that. If he has to feign loyalty to Starmer people will see through it, and he won't win.
https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/2054962083545186562
This guy reaches parts that others in Labour don't even spot on the distant horizon.
And he's the only reason I would EVER consider voting for Labour shysters again.
I'd put his chances here at about 35%.
https://news.sky.com/story/final-tranche-of-mandelson-files-expected-to-be-released-next-week-13543738
Given the aplomb exhibited so far on his handling of the Mandelson files, might Starmer's attempts to hang on become untenable when these get released?
One possibility is people are so relieved Starmer is being challenged and there might be an alternative that Burnham wins handily and the country sees things more positively.
But there is a dangerous risk here that this all looks a bit “playing politics” in that someone is being parachuted into a constituency for the pure purpose of becoming PM. It could backfire.
I genuinely don’t know which way it will go.
But what a risk
It might come down to a contest between those who want to kick Starmer - vote for Burnham - and those who want to kick the entire government - vote for Reform
Presumably you'll happily offer me 20-1?
https://x.com/Footballfights/status/2054848822598160718/video/1
Think the closest was Ashton S but even that was Ref 1572 Lab 1100