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Keir we go! Wes we can, Streeting resigns – politicalbetting.com

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  • Farage is a liar. First £5m was for security now it’s a reward for campaigning for Brexit?
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 9,132
    What happened to the “2/3rds of the cabinet are going to Downing Street to beg the PM to go?”
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,297
    "From a working class background in Aberdeen and is relatable and communicates in a way that not many Labour MPs are able to"

    To be fair, you could say exactly the same about Michael Gove.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,736

    Farage is a liar. First £5m was for security now it’s a reward for campaigning for Brexit?

    Hmm, that sounds more like a donation than a gift.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 91,949
    edited May 14

    What happened to the “2/3rds of the cabinet are going to Downing Street to beg the PM to go?”

    We appear to have had a lets all go skinny dipping and only one of them has got naked and even for them they appear to be worrying about how cold the water is.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,789

    I know this is the lesser political story but still

    BREAKING: Reform UK has LOST minority control of Worcestershire County Council - after being overthrown by a shock rainbow coalition.

    The Conservatives have teamed up with the Greens, Lib Dems and independents to form a power-sharing alliance in the last few minutes. 2/3”


    What are they thinking? Refusing to ally with Reform but quite happy to ally with quasi-Marxist, quasi-Islamist Greens?

    This kind of shit will doom them with right wing voters. They cannot be trusted. They are still Cameroon wets, whatever Kemi claims

    https://x.com/tomedwardsbbchw/status/2054863889808937351?s=46

    The Tory party is about power and respectability. On the former the numbers suggest the Tories will be the biggest group on the council and perhaps they intend to do a Clegg on the Lib Dems and Greens? With regard to respectability, how many of the foremost London clubs would countenance Nigel Farage as a member?
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 3,131
    edited May 14
    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Trebles all round at the BMA with Wes out today I expect. Next health sec will fold to them like a cheap suit.

    Trebles? Well, they can afford it, I guess.
    A resident doctor writes :wink: 😂
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 18,452
    Taz said:

    I know this is the lesser political story but still

    BREAKING: Reform UK has LOST minority control of Worcestershire County Council - after being overthrown by a shock rainbow coalition.

    The Conservatives have teamed up with the Greens, Lib Dems and independents to form a power-sharing alliance in the last few minutes. 2/3”


    What are they thinking? Refusing to ally with Reform but quite happy to ally with quasi-Marxist, quasi-Islamist Greens?

    This kind of shit will doom them with right wing voters. They cannot be trusted. They are still Cameroon wets, whatever Kemi claims

    https://x.com/tomedwardsbbchw/status/2054863889808937351?s=46

    They did not back Reform in the Senedd either and it is the right approach
    Which is fine. They are not obliged to ally with reform. But allying with the frigging GREENS in preference to Reform is an insult to every right wing voter in Worcestershire. Why not ally with Corbyn? Whats she difference?

    I predict it will not go well for them. There or elsewhere. It will just make drifting right wing voters make the full leap to Reform

    The Greens are detestable and anti-British and completely penetrated by pro Palestinian nutters and crypto (not even that crypto) Islamists
    I'd guess the Green councillor corps varies a lot by location. In any case Reform are more anti British than the Greens are.
    I’d agree about the Green councillors. They’re probably bunny hugging NIMBYs there

    But reform anti British/more anti Brit than the Greens. You’re having a laugh 🤣🤣🤣🤣
    For sure, they parrot MAGA, they're halfway up Trump's rectum, they're pro Putin (and are doing jail time to prove it), and they seem to hate Britain as it actually exists rather than their 1950s white weewee version. Reform are the most anti British party out there.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 23,700
    Keir we go! Wes we can, Streeting resigns

    More like Keir we go! Wes we cant count to 81, Streeting resigns
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 41,035

    I know this is the lesser political story but still

    BREAKING: Reform UK has LOST minority control of Worcestershire County Council - after being overthrown by a shock rainbow coalition.

    The Conservatives have teamed up with the Greens, Lib Dems and independents to form a power-sharing alliance in the last few minutes. 2/3”


    What are they thinking? Refusing to ally with Reform but quite happy to ally with quasi-Marxist, quasi-Islamist Greens?

    This kind of shit will doom them with right wing voters. They cannot be trusted. They are still Cameroon wets, whatever Kemi claims

    https://x.com/tomedwardsbbchw/status/2054863889808937351?s=46

    They did not back Reform in the Senedd either and it is the right approach
    Which is fine. They are not obliged to ally with reform. But allying with the frigging GREENS in preference to Reform is an insult to every right wing voter in Worcestershire. Why not ally with Corbyn? Whats she difference?

    I predict it will not go well for them. There or elsewhere. It will just make drifting right wing voters make the full leap to Reform

    The Greens are detestable and anti-British and completely penetrated by pro Palestinian nutters and crypto (not even that crypto) Islamists
    Alan Amos being leader of the Reform group explains everything.
    Oh, if it’s him, then it becomes a lot more understandable.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 15,625

    Farage has aged a lot since 2017

    Not enough.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 81,137

    Farage has aged a lot since 2017

    Haven't we all.
  • I know this is the lesser political story but still

    BREAKING: Reform UK has LOST minority control of Worcestershire County Council - after being overthrown by a shock rainbow coalition.

    The Conservatives have teamed up with the Greens, Lib Dems and independents to form a power-sharing alliance in the last few minutes. 2/3”


    What are they thinking? Refusing to ally with Reform but quite happy to ally with quasi-Marxist, quasi-Islamist Greens?

    This kind of shit will doom them with right wing voters. They cannot be trusted. They are still Cameroon wets, whatever Kemi claims

    https://x.com/tomedwardsbbchw/status/2054863889808937351?s=46

    The Tory party is about power and respectability. On the former the numbers suggest the Tories will be the biggest group on the council and perhaps they intend to do a Clegg on the Lib Dems and Greens? With regard to respectability, how many of the foremost London clubs would countenance Nigel Farage as a member?
    Kemi needs to intervene. The Tories cannot taint themselves with a Green alliance. It’s catastrophic

    Fine not helping Reform. But the greens? Nah
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,082

    Taz said:

    I know this is the lesser political story but still

    BREAKING: Reform UK has LOST minority control of Worcestershire County Council - after being overthrown by a shock rainbow coalition.

    The Conservatives have teamed up with the Greens, Lib Dems and independents to form a power-sharing alliance in the last few minutes. 2/3”


    What are they thinking? Refusing to ally with Reform but quite happy to ally with quasi-Marxist, quasi-Islamist Greens?

    This kind of shit will doom them with right wing voters. They cannot be trusted. They are still Cameroon wets, whatever Kemi claims

    https://x.com/tomedwardsbbchw/status/2054863889808937351?s=46

    They did not back Reform in the Senedd either and it is the right approach
    Which is fine. They are not obliged to ally with reform. But allying with the frigging GREENS in preference to Reform is an insult to every right wing voter in Worcestershire. Why not ally with Corbyn? Whats she difference?

    I predict it will not go well for them. There or elsewhere. It will just make drifting right wing voters make the full leap to Reform

    The Greens are detestable and anti-British and completely penetrated by pro Palestinian nutters and crypto (not even that crypto) Islamists
    I'd guess the Green councillor corps varies a lot by location. In any case Reform are more anti British than the Greens are.
    I’d agree about the Green councillors. They’re probably bunny hugging NIMBYs there

    But reform anti British/more anti Brit than the Greens. You’re having a laugh 🤣🤣🤣🤣
    For sure, they parrot MAGA, they're halfway up Trump's rectum, they're pro Putin (and are doing jail time to prove it), and they seem to hate Britain as it actually exists rather than their 1950s white weewee version. Reform are the most anti British party out there.
    WTF does that gibberish even mean 🤣🤣🤣🤣
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 58,872

    We haven't had any sort of response form the Downing Street bunker yet. No letter in reply. No appointment of a new Health Secretary - have any of the earlier ministerial resignations been replaced? Seemingly nothing.

    Is it possible that Starmer's undecided as to whether to continue?

    Starmer and Reed are visiting a housing development so nothing much till Starmer returns to no 10
    Without a contestant Starmer can let this drift for a while longer. As it stands Starmer has nothing further to lose. His premiership is over. It is simply about time scale now.
    Agreed
    There is of course the small matter of the governance of the country in what are difficult times with the Strait of Hormuz still shut, an increasing shortage of jet fuel and fertiliser and, potentially, a Sovereign debt crisis but its silly to pretend that these weigh in the balance.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 28,755

    Good visualisation of the Labour and Tory squeeze

    https://x.com/OwenWntr/status/2054869340327993602

    image

    That's a great graph(s), thank you
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,148
    edited May 14
    The reason Bootle might be one of the only seats Labour could win in a by-election is because both Reform and the Greens have a certain amount of strength in the constituency as evidenced at the local elections on Thursday. So Labour could still win in on a low share of the vote. (Reform could theoretically decide not to contest it in order to help the Greens win, but that's unlikely).
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 50,671
    Assessing it this way:

    How can it NOT end up with Andy Burnham?

    1. The contest is triggered too soon for him
    2. Nobody agrees to vacate him a seat
    3. He's blocked from standing in it
    4. He loses the by-election
    5. He wins the seat then loses the leadership contest

    1. Still possible but looking unlikely
    2. Surely unlikely
    3. Politically just about impossible now
    4. Unlikely I'd have thought
    5. Unlikely unless sentiment changes radically

    Conclusion: a very solid favourite.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 23,700
    viewcode said:

    Good visualisation of the Labour and Tory squeeze

    https://x.com/OwenWntr/status/2054869340327993602

    image

    That's a great graph(s), thank you
    LDs winning here
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 56,828
    Pulpstar said:

    Farage has aged a lot since 2017

    Haven't we all.
    Yes, I feel as if I have aged nearly a decade.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 81,137
    edited May 14
    I think Burnham would win any currently held GM (Likely NW tbf) seat tbh. He has consistently outperformed Labour's generic vote since he became mayor there.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,148
    Pulpstar said:

    Farage has aged a lot since 2017

    Haven't we all.
    Boris is another.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 28,755
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    I know this is the lesser political story but still

    BREAKING: Reform UK has LOST minority control of Worcestershire County Council - after being overthrown by a shock rainbow coalition.

    The Conservatives have teamed up with the Greens, Lib Dems and independents to form a power-sharing alliance in the last few minutes. 2/3”


    What are they thinking? Refusing to ally with Reform but quite happy to ally with quasi-Marxist, quasi-Islamist Greens?

    This kind of shit will doom them with right wing voters. They cannot be trusted. They are still Cameroon wets, whatever Kemi claims

    https://x.com/tomedwardsbbchw/status/2054863889808937351?s=46

    They did not back Reform in the Senedd either and it is the right approach
    Which is fine. They are not obliged to ally with reform. But allying with the frigging GREENS in preference to Reform is an insult to every right wing voter in Worcestershire. Why not ally with Corbyn? Whats she difference?

    I predict it will not go well for them. There or elsewhere. It will just make drifting right wing voters make the full leap to Reform

    The Greens are detestable and anti-British and completely penetrated by pro Palestinian nutters and crypto (not even that crypto) Islamists
    I'd guess the Green councillor corps varies a lot by location. In any case Reform are more anti British than the Greens are.
    I’d agree about the Green councillors. They’re probably bunny hugging NIMBYs there

    But reform anti British/more anti Brit than the Greens. You’re having a laugh 🤣🤣🤣🤣
    For sure, they parrot MAGA, they're halfway up Trump's rectum, they're pro Putin (and are doing jail time to prove it), and they seem to hate Britain as it actually exists rather than their 1950s white weewee version. Reform are the most anti British party out there.
    WTF does that gibberish even mean 🤣🤣🤣🤣
    "white wee-wee" is explained in this clip from The Gay Daleks

    https://youtu.be/z3pHvH8sPT4?si=CSyOlzHveT16FzqI&t=67
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 58,872
    kinabalu said:

    Assessing it this way:

    How can it NOT end up with Andy Burnham?

    1. The contest is triggered too soon for him
    2. Nobody agrees to vacate him a seat
    3. He's blocked from standing in it
    4. He loses the by-election
    5. He wins the seat then loses the leadership contest

    1. Still possible but looking unlikely
    2. Surely unlikely
    3. Politically just about impossible now
    4. Unlikely I'd have thought
    5. Unlikely unless sentiment changes radically

    Conclusion: a very solid favourite.

    Many a slip
    Between cup and lip.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,736
    edited May 14
    DavidL said:

    We haven't had any sort of response form the Downing Street bunker yet. No letter in reply. No appointment of a new Health Secretary - have any of the earlier ministerial resignations been replaced? Seemingly nothing.

    Is it possible that Starmer's undecided as to whether to continue?

    Starmer and Reed are visiting a housing development so nothing much till Starmer returns to no 10
    Without a contestant Starmer can let this drift for a while longer. As it stands Starmer has nothing further to lose. His premiership is over. It is simply about time scale now.
    Agreed
    There is of course the small matter of the governance of the country in what are difficult times with the Strait of Hormuz still shut, an increasing shortage of jet fuel and fertiliser and, potentially, a Sovereign debt crisis but its silly to pretend that these weigh in the balance.
    Without the requirements of success, Starmer may be somewhat less useless. I don't believe he has done badly in directly negotiating Trump, Trump's war, the ramifications of that war and Trump's tariffs. Mandelson aside obviously.

    Edit. His management of Trump and Gaza has been less sure footed. There is still an argument that Starmer is complicit in war crimes against Gazan civilians.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 23,700
    KoN back as favourite on Oddschecker has he got a seat yet?

    WS drifting like a right wing barge. Has he got more than 50 backers outside the Cabinet yet?

    SKS looks safe for a few more minutes/hours/days/weeks/months (delete as appropriate)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,564
    Sean_F said:

    I know this is the lesser political story but still

    BREAKING: Reform UK has LOST minority control of Worcestershire County Council - after being overthrown by a shock rainbow coalition.

    The Conservatives have teamed up with the Greens, Lib Dems and independents to form a power-sharing alliance in the last few minutes. 2/3”


    What are they thinking? Refusing to ally with Reform but quite happy to ally with quasi-Marxist, quasi-Islamist Greens?

    This kind of shit will doom them with right wing voters. They cannot be trusted. They are still Cameroon wets, whatever Kemi claims

    https://x.com/tomedwardsbbchw/status/2054863889808937351?s=46

    They did not back Reform in the Senedd either and it is the right approach
    Which is fine. They are not obliged to ally with reform. But allying with the frigging GREENS in preference to Reform is an insult to every right wing voter in Worcestershire. Why not ally with Corbyn? Whats she difference?

    I predict it will not go well for them. There or elsewhere. It will just make drifting right wing voters make the full leap to Reform

    The Greens are detestable and anti-British and completely penetrated by pro Palestinian nutters and crypto (not even that crypto) Islamists
    Alan Amos being leader of the Reform group explains everything.
    Oh, if it’s him, then it becomes a lot more understandable.
    It is him.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,193
    Cicero said:

    mwadams said:

    I know this is the lesser political story but still

    BREAKING: Reform UK has LOST minority control of Worcestershire County Council - after being overthrown by a shock rainbow coalition.

    The Conservatives have teamed up with the Greens, Lib Dems and independents to form a power-sharing alliance in the last few minutes. 2/3”


    What are they thinking? Refusing to ally with Reform but quite happy to ally with quasi-Marxist, quasi-Islamist Greens?

    This kind of shit will doom them with right wing voters. They cannot be trusted. They are still Cameroon wets, whatever Kemi claims

    https://x.com/tomedwardsbbchw/status/2054863889808937351?s=46

    They did not back Reform in the Senedd either and it is the right approach
    Which is fine. They are not obliged to ally with reform. But allying with the frigging GREENS in preference to Reform is an insult to every right wing voter in Worcestershire. Why not ally with Corbyn? Whats she difference?

    I predict it will not go well for them. There or elsewhere. It will just make drifting right wing voters make the full leap to Reform

    The Greens are detestable and anti-British and completely penetrated by pro Palestinian nutters and crypto (not even that crypto) Islamists
    I think the Green demographics have changed a bit in recent years. There seem to be a lot of ex-Fabians, and centre lefties, people from the Heritage space (think archaeologists rather than the old human-hating Environmentalists) and the (always few in numbers) Corbynite old lefties with the problems you describe. Plus the hangovers from the Green party of old.

    And that's the English Greens. Scottish Greens are different again.

    Of course that doesn't mean there isn't a fair share of weirdos and extremists that you'd find in any Party or politics-discussing website.
    Well, quite.

    "Some" Greens are everything that has been suggested, and more besides. On the other hand there are plenty of Greens who used to Lib Dems, and a surprising number that used to be green welly Tories. So applying Chalk Farm metropolitan arrogance and presuming to lecture some perfectly harmless local councilors who don't want to see their local council turned into a grandstanding shit show run by American funded neo-fascist fuckwits is a bit silly. Just because you think Reform is a good thing does not mean that locals on the mean streets of Bromsgrove agree with you.

    If it does turn out that Farage has been more than just a bit naughty with the 5 million quid of crypto crookedry then hopefully the whole house of cards comes crashing down.
    Well, the flipside of that is that Reform's support is now broad enough (up to almost a third of the electorate) that a large number of Reform councillors and members are likely to be former Tories of one sort of another and if you don't regard the Tories as anathema to democracy then it would be unfair to so regard Reform, at least in local councils where Farage is unlikely to show any interest.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 58,872

    DavidL said:

    We haven't had any sort of response form the Downing Street bunker yet. No letter in reply. No appointment of a new Health Secretary - have any of the earlier ministerial resignations been replaced? Seemingly nothing.

    Is it possible that Starmer's undecided as to whether to continue?

    Starmer and Reed are visiting a housing development so nothing much till Starmer returns to no 10
    Without a contestant Starmer can let this drift for a while longer. As it stands Starmer has nothing further to lose. His premiership is over. It is simply about time scale now.
    Agreed
    There is of course the small matter of the governance of the country in what are difficult times with the Strait of Hormuz still shut, an increasing shortage of jet fuel and fertiliser and, potentially, a Sovereign debt crisis but its silly to pretend that these weigh in the balance.
    Without the requirements of success, Starmer may be somewhat less useless. I don't believe he has done badly in directly negotiating Trump, Trump's war, the ramifications of that war and Trump's tariffs. Mandelson aside obviously.
    He has been right to stay out of the war although there seemed to be a UK minesweeper in the Straits recently. But what has our government done to prepare this country for the oil shock that is going to come? And it is coming, the only thing that remains uncertain is its duration.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 50,671
    edited May 14
    DavidL said:

    kinabalu said:

    Assessing it this way:

    How can it NOT end up with Andy Burnham?

    1. The contest is triggered too soon for him
    2. Nobody agrees to vacate him a seat
    3. He's blocked from standing in it
    4. He loses the by-election
    5. He wins the seat then loses the leadership contest

    1. Still possible but looking unlikely
    2. Surely unlikely
    3. Politically just about impossible now
    4. Unlikely I'd have thought
    5. Unlikely unless sentiment changes radically

    Conclusion: a very solid favourite.

    Many a slip
    Between cup and lip.
    Yes the inherent uncertainties of the situation. That's why he isn't shorter than 3. More a back than a lay at that though for me. Although I'm not.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,834
    viewcode said:

    Good visualisation of the Labour and Tory squeeze

    https://x.com/OwenWntr/status/2054869340327993602

    image

    That's a great graph(s), thank you
    Apart from the bifurcation of Labour, it's interesting that a small Tory island has emerged between Labour and the Lib Dems. If Labour go left, that part of their coalition will be up for grabs and it could fall to the Tories.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 9,132
    kinabalu said:

    Assessing it this way:

    How can it NOT end up with Andy Burnham?

    1. The contest is triggered too soon for him
    2. Nobody agrees to vacate him a seat
    3. He's blocked from standing in it
    4. He loses the by-election
    5. He wins the seat then loses the leadership contest

    1. Still possible but looking unlikely
    2. Surely unlikely
    3. Politically just about impossible now
    4. Unlikely I'd have thought
    5. Unlikely unless sentiment changes radically

    Conclusion: a very solid favourite.

    I think he is pretty much the heir apparent now. It probably suits Rayner and Streeting to try and get decent roles out of him for their support rather than try and contest against him. He seems to have the greatest potential to unite the party.

    He’s also acting exceptionally arrogantly as if taking over is his natural right, but the Labour Party seems to rather like these situations (see Brown, Gordon) and I’m not convinced they’ve got anyone better (Al Carns? You can’t go from unknown backbencher to PM, sorry, that’s a joke). So they’re probably best to get him into Parliament as soon as they can now and roll the dice with him.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,559

    I know this is the lesser political story but still

    BREAKING: Reform UK has LOST minority control of Worcestershire County Council - after being overthrown by a shock rainbow coalition.

    The Conservatives have teamed up with the Greens, Lib Dems and independents to form a power-sharing alliance in the last few minutes. 2/3”


    What are they thinking? Refusing to ally with Reform but quite happy to ally with quasi-Marxist, quasi-Islamist Greens?

    This kind of shit will doom them with right wing voters. They cannot be trusted. They are still Cameroon wets, whatever Kemi claims

    https://x.com/tomedwardsbbchw/status/2054863889808937351?s=46

    The Tory party is about power and respectability. On the former the numbers suggest the Tories will be the biggest group on the council and perhaps they intend to do a Clegg on the Lib Dems and Greens? With regard to respectability, how many of the foremost London clubs would countenance Nigel Farage as a member?
    Seems implausible.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckgpyxw7l5no

    "Green councillor Matt Jenkins has been made the new council leader"

    So. The Tories have conspired to put a Marxist Islamist in charge.
  • FossFoss Posts: 2,726

    Good visualisation of the Labour and Tory squeeze

    https://x.com/OwenWntr/status/2054869340327993602

    image

    That suggests the Tories are going to have a very bad run in North Yorkshire next year.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,736

    viewcode said:

    Good visualisation of the Labour and Tory squeeze

    https://x.com/OwenWntr/status/2054869340327993602

    image

    That's a great graph(s), thank you
    Apart from the bifurcation of Labour, it's interesting that a small Tory island has emerged between Labour and the Lib Dems. If Labour go left, that part of their coalition will be up for grabs and it could fall to the Tories.
    You keep coming up with these hair brained notions of a Tory revival whilst Reform are riding high.

    I would suggest that the closer to Madchester the Government become the greater the peril for Green. If anyone benefits from any lurch left it would be the LDs.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,559
    Selebian said:

    Good visualisation of the Labour and Tory squeeze

    https://x.com/OwenWntr/status/2054869340327993602

    image

    Nice, but have to be a bit careful on interpretation - relative versus absolute. The data are mostly in the middle, so the outer parts are very sparse - particularly relevant for that sea of green.

    Not sure how I'd do it, maybe hexagons of equal size for population arranged broadly on those axes or some kind of shading. A lot more of e.g. the Lab area is for seats that actually exist, compared to the green and Ref areas.

    Fascinating nonetheless though.
    Yes. On first glance you'd be forgiven for thinking the Greens had won most seats judging by the area.

    Greenland on a Mercator projection?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 23,700

    kinabalu said:

    Assessing it this way:

    How can it NOT end up with Andy Burnham?

    1. The contest is triggered too soon for him
    2. Nobody agrees to vacate him a seat
    3. He's blocked from standing in it
    4. He loses the by-election
    5. He wins the seat then loses the leadership contest

    1. Still possible but looking unlikely
    2. Surely unlikely
    3. Politically just about impossible now
    4. Unlikely I'd have thought
    5. Unlikely unless sentiment changes radically

    Conclusion: a very solid favourite.

    I think he is pretty much the heir apparent now. It probably suits Rayner and Streeting to try and get decent roles out of him for their support rather than try and contest against him. He seems to have the greatest potential to unite the party.

    He’s also acting exceptionally arrogantly as if taking over is his natural right, but the Labour Party seems to rather like these situations (see Brown, Gordon) and I’m not convinced they’ve got anyone better (Al Carns? You can’t go from unknown backbencher to PM, sorry, that’s a joke). So they’re probably best to get him into Parliament as soon as they can now and roll the dice with him.
    Pretty much spot on imo

    However never underestimate the ability of Labour First types to enable Labour 4th ending by blocking him
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,559

    viewcode said:

    Good visualisation of the Labour and Tory squeeze

    https://x.com/OwenWntr/status/2054869340327993602

    image

    That's a great graph(s), thank you
    Apart from the bifurcation of Labour, it's interesting that a small Tory island has emerged between Labour and the Lib Dems. If Labour go left, that part of their coalition will be up for grabs and it could fall to the Tories.
    You keep coming up with these hair brained notions of a Tory revival whilst Reform are riding high.

    I would suggest that the closer to Madchester the Government become the greater the peril for Green. If anyone benefits from any lurch left it would be the LDs.
    Despite losing 60% of their seats outside London the bounce back is imminent.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,736
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    We haven't had any sort of response form the Downing Street bunker yet. No letter in reply. No appointment of a new Health Secretary - have any of the earlier ministerial resignations been replaced? Seemingly nothing.

    Is it possible that Starmer's undecided as to whether to continue?

    Starmer and Reed are visiting a housing development so nothing much till Starmer returns to no 10
    Without a contestant Starmer can let this drift for a while longer. As it stands Starmer has nothing further to lose. His premiership is over. It is simply about time scale now.
    Agreed
    There is of course the small matter of the governance of the country in what are difficult times with the Strait of Hormuz still shut, an increasing shortage of jet fuel and fertiliser and, potentially, a Sovereign debt crisis but its silly to pretend that these weigh in the balance.
    Without the requirements of success, Starmer may be somewhat less useless. I don't believe he has done badly in directly negotiating Trump, Trump's war, the ramifications of that war and Trump's tariffs. Mandelson aside obviously.
    He has been right to stay out of the war although there seemed to be a UK minesweeper in the Straits recently. But what has our government done to prepare this country for the oil shock that is going to come? And it is coming, the only thing that remains uncertain is its duration.
    More wind turbines.

    Any North Sea oil production dividend as advocated by Badenoch is a handful of years away.

    We should have been more like Norway 45 years ago.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,193
    kinabalu said:

    Assessing it this way:

    How can it NOT end up with Andy Burnham?

    1. The contest is triggered too soon for him
    2. Nobody agrees to vacate him a seat
    3. He's blocked from standing in it
    4. He loses the by-election
    5. He wins the seat then loses the leadership contest

    1. Still possible but looking unlikely
    2. Surely unlikely
    3. Politically just about impossible now
    4. Unlikely I'd have thought
    5. Unlikely unless sentiment changes radically

    Conclusion: a very solid favourite.

    Isn't this a bit like the Drake equation?

    And, even if you think he's strong odds-on for each separate stage, I think it adds up to him being odds-against. It's a 5-in-6 chance of rolling a 2+ on a standard six-sided die, but it's only a ~2-in-5 chance of rolling a 2+ on all five six-sided dice.

    Added to which, if Burnham had a seat lined up we would have heard about it by now.
  • eekeek Posts: 33,905

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    We haven't had any sort of response form the Downing Street bunker yet. No letter in reply. No appointment of a new Health Secretary - have any of the earlier ministerial resignations been replaced? Seemingly nothing.

    Is it possible that Starmer's undecided as to whether to continue?

    Starmer and Reed are visiting a housing development so nothing much till Starmer returns to no 10
    Without a contestant Starmer can let this drift for a while longer. As it stands Starmer has nothing further to lose. His premiership is over. It is simply about time scale now.
    Agreed
    There is of course the small matter of the governance of the country in what are difficult times with the Strait of Hormuz still shut, an increasing shortage of jet fuel and fertiliser and, potentially, a Sovereign debt crisis but its silly to pretend that these weigh in the balance.
    Without the requirements of success, Starmer may be somewhat less useless. I don't believe he has done badly in directly negotiating Trump, Trump's war, the ramifications of that war and Trump's tariffs. Mandelson aside obviously.
    He has been right to stay out of the war although there seemed to be a UK minesweeper in the Straits recently. But what has our government done to prepare this country for the oil shock that is going to come? And it is coming, the only thing that remains uncertain is its duration.
    More wind turbines.

    Any North Sea oil production dividend as advocated by Badenoch is a handful of years away.

    We should have been more like Norway 45 years ago.
    We used the North Sea money over the past 45 years to keep the current show on the road as it allowed us to spend beyond our means
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,193

    kinabalu said:

    Assessing it this way:

    How can it NOT end up with Andy Burnham?

    1. The contest is triggered too soon for him
    2. Nobody agrees to vacate him a seat
    3. He's blocked from standing in it
    4. He loses the by-election
    5. He wins the seat then loses the leadership contest

    1. Still possible but looking unlikely
    2. Surely unlikely
    3. Politically just about impossible now
    4. Unlikely I'd have thought
    5. Unlikely unless sentiment changes radically

    Conclusion: a very solid favourite.

    I think he is pretty much the heir apparent now. It probably suits Rayner and Streeting to try and get decent roles out of him for their support rather than try and contest against him. He seems to have the greatest potential to unite the party.

    He’s also acting exceptionally arrogantly as if taking over is his natural right, but the Labour Party seems to rather like these situations (see Brown, Gordon) and I’m not convinced they’ve got anyone better (Al Carns? You can’t go from unknown backbencher to PM, sorry, that’s a joke). So they’re probably best to get him into Parliament as soon as they can now and roll the dice with him.
    On Al Carns I will give you unknown - kinda hard to dispute that one when I'm about to correct you on him being a backbencher (he's current Armed Forces minister), but obviously you didn't know that, because he's unknown.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 15,625
    dixiedean said:

    viewcode said:

    Good visualisation of the Labour and Tory squeeze

    https://x.com/OwenWntr/status/2054869340327993602

    image

    That's a great graph(s), thank you
    Apart from the bifurcation of Labour, it's interesting that a small Tory island has emerged between Labour and the Lib Dems. If Labour go left, that part of their coalition will be up for grabs and it could fall to the Tories.
    You keep coming up with these hair brained notions of a Tory revival whilst Reform are riding high.

    I would suggest that the closer to Madchester the Government become the greater the peril for Green. If anyone benefits from any lurch left it would be the LDs.
    Despite losing 60% of their seats outside London the bounce back is imminent.
    Marg bar tories!
    Marg bar tories!
    Marg bar tories!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 91,949
    Phillipson: PM Has Full Support of Cabinet
  • RattersRatters Posts: 2,027
    dixiedean said:

    Selebian said:

    Good visualisation of the Labour and Tory squeeze

    https://x.com/OwenWntr/status/2054869340327993602

    image

    Nice, but have to be a bit careful on interpretation - relative versus absolute. The data are mostly in the middle, so the outer parts are very sparse - particularly relevant for that sea of green.

    Not sure how I'd do it, maybe hexagons of equal size for population arranged broadly on those axes or some kind of shading. A lot more of e.g. the Lab area is for seats that actually exist, compared to the green and Ref areas.

    Fascinating nonetheless though.
    Yes. On first glance you'd be forgiven for thinking the Greens had won most seats judging by the area.

    Greenland on a Mercator projection?
    If the x axis was truncated at 20% like it is truncated at 80% then the Green share would probably be more representative.

    In any case, the party of the professional/managerial class over 50 seems a particular niche pond for the Tories to be fishing in.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 10,134

    Phillipson: PM Has Full Support of Cabinet

    Peter Mandelson? :open_mouth:
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 47,887
    Anyway, back to the real competition of the week and yet more evidence that Scottish hacks are morons. The one decent reason in the replies for a helicopter was the ref might need evacced out.

    ‘😂 Helicopter Saturday? The fuck they needing a helicopter for if both teams who can win the league are playing at the same ground?’

    https://x.com/graememeldrum/status/2054847693487259755?s=46&t=fJymV-V84rexmlQMLXH
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 9,132
    edited May 14

    Phillipson: PM Has Full Support of Cabinet

    I think everyone waiting for the imminent end of the SKS show is going to be disappointed.

    He’s going to be there til Burnham can get a seat, at least. It is ludicrous, because privately I expect the cabinet all know he should go, but until their golden boy is in place they can’t rush it.
  • AbandonedHopeAbandonedHope Posts: 226
    Is it me or does "Where we need vision, we have vacuum. Where we need direction, we have drift" sound a bit... "Where there is discord, may we bring harmony"?

    Not sure sounding like Mrs T will endear you to the faithful, Wes.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,424

    I mean WTF?

    Catherine West now on Radio 4 saying Keir Starmer could win a leadership election and not ruling out voting for him

    https://x.com/patrickkmaguire/status/2054901009084789034

    Lol. Clearly getting lumbered with Wes wasn’t her plan! She’s a real lefty.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 5,442

    I know this is the lesser political story but still

    BREAKING: Reform UK has LOST minority control of Worcestershire County Council - after being overthrown by a shock rainbow coalition.

    The Conservatives have teamed up with the Greens, Lib Dems and independents to form a power-sharing alliance in the last few minutes. 2/3”


    What are they thinking? Refusing to ally with Reform but quite happy to ally with quasi-Marxist, quasi-Islamist Greens?

    This kind of shit will doom them with right wing voters. They cannot be trusted. They are still Cameroon wets, whatever Kemi claims

    https://x.com/tomedwardsbbchw/status/2054863889808937351?s=46

    The Tory party is about power and respectability. On the former the numbers suggest the Tories will be the biggest group on the council and perhaps they intend to do a Clegg on the Lib Dems and Greens? With regard to respectability, how many of the foremost London clubs would countenance Nigel Farage as a member?
    Kemi needs to intervene. The Tories cannot taint themselves with a Green alliance. It’s catastrophic

    Fine not helping Reform. But the greens? Nah
    This isn't an alliance prior to an election; this is pragmatism afterwards.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,673
    edited May 14
    Ooh, go away for a couple of hours and it all kicks off.

    So do we think Streeting has 81 signatures on his challenger form?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,790
    kinabalu said:

    Assessing it this way:

    How can it NOT end up with Andy Burnham?

    1. The contest is triggered too soon for him
    2. Nobody agrees to vacate him a seat
    3. He's blocked from standing in it
    4. He loses the by-election
    5. He wins the seat then loses the leadership contest

    1. Still possible but looking unlikely
    2. Surely unlikely
    3. Politically just about impossible now
    4. Unlikely I'd have thought
    5. Unlikely unless sentiment changes radically

    Conclusion: a very solid favourite.

    Streeting getting frit is a massive boost. I think Andy may have it.

    4 is tricky but if theres enthusiasm he will replace the PM he wins i think.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,564

    Is it me or does "Where we need vision, we have vacuum. Where we need direction, we have drift" sound a bit... "Where there is discord, may we bring harmony"?

    Not sure sounding like Mrs T will endear you to the faithful, Wes.

    It made me think those people who are rushed to A&E with injuries involving vacuum cleaners.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,736
    edited May 14

    Phillipson: PM Has Full Support of Cabinet

    Some of these f******* won't get another job in Cabinet once Starmer falls. Reeves amongst others must realise the gig is up, at least in the short to medium term.

    Pretty much the only positive kpi reporting has been from the Department of Health. If any other department has achieved anything over the last two years, they have kept it to themselves.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,186

    Long, long ago.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,790
    edited May 14

    Is it me or does "Where we need vision, we have vacuum. Where we need direction, we have drift" sound a bit... "Where there is discord, may we bring harmony"?

    Not sure sounding like Mrs T will endear you to the faithful, Wes.

    I don't think she had a copyright on sentence structure. I think the left dislike him enough without fearing he evoked she who shall not be named.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,424
    edited May 14

    I know this is the lesser political story but still

    BREAKING: Reform UK has LOST minority control of Worcestershire County Council - after being overthrown by a shock rainbow coalition.

    The Conservatives have teamed up with the Greens, Lib Dems and independents to form a power-sharing alliance in the last few minutes. 2/3”


    What are they thinking? Refusing to ally with Reform but quite happy to ally with quasi-Marxist, quasi-Islamist Greens?

    This kind of shit will doom them with right wing voters. They cannot be trusted. They are still Cameroon wets, whatever Kemi claims

    https://x.com/tomedwardsbbchw/status/2054863889808937351?s=46

    I spoke to one of our county councillors this morning, and efforts to do the same are underway on the island. The challenge is that it requires all four political parties plus every independent to play ball, to come off. Meanwhile they’ve been meeting some of the new Reform councillors, and clueless is the least that can be said.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 41,035

    viewcode said:

    Good visualisation of the Labour and Tory squeeze

    https://x.com/OwenWntr/status/2054869340327993602

    image

    That's a great graph(s), thank you
    Apart from the bifurcation of Labour, it's interesting that a small Tory island has emerged between Labour and the Lib Dems. If Labour go left, that part of their coalition will be up for grabs and it could fall to the Tories.
    There is still a core Conservative vote, older, but better off than Reform. More rural, but also, with a solid vote in London, especially among Hindu and Jewish voters.

    There's a very solid Lib Dem among younger to middle aged, well to do voters, and likewise for Labour. The Greens do well among all classes, but very poorly with voters aged 40+.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 81,137
    Sandpit said:

    Ooh, go away for a couple of hours and it all kicks off.

    So do we think Streeting has 81 signatures on his challenger form?

    No.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 50,671

    kinabalu said:

    Assessing it this way:

    How can it NOT end up with Andy Burnham?

    1. The contest is triggered too soon for him
    2. Nobody agrees to vacate him a seat
    3. He's blocked from standing in it
    4. He loses the by-election
    5. He wins the seat then loses the leadership contest

    1. Still possible but looking unlikely
    2. Surely unlikely
    3. Politically just about impossible now
    4. Unlikely I'd have thought
    5. Unlikely unless sentiment changes radically

    Conclusion: a very solid favourite.

    Isn't this a bit like the Drake equation?

    And, even if you think he's strong odds-on for each separate stage, I think it adds up to him being odds-against. It's a 5-in-6 chance of rolling a 2+ on a standard six-sided die, but it's only a ~2-in-5 chance of rolling a 2+ on all five six-sided dice.

    Added to which, if Burnham had a seat lined up we would have heard about it by now.
    Yes you have to put numbers in and multiply. All of the things must not happen for the endstate of Andy PM to be reached.

    Odds against for sure. Betfair has 3.25. Right ballpark imo but I'd price it a tad shorter.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,351
    There's some very odd odds available on BF for next leader: Torsten Bell - 4; Georgia Gould - 9; Long Bailey - 9

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,736

    Is it me or does "Where we need vision, we have vacuum. Where we need direction, we have drift" sound a bit... "Where there is discord, may we bring harmony"?

    Not sure sounding like Mrs T will endear you to the faithful, Wes.

    It made me think those people who are rushed to A&E with injuries involving vacuum cleaners.
    Are those people called Henry?

    Thank you and good night.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,082
    edited May 14
    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    I know this is the lesser political story but still

    BREAKING: Reform UK has LOST minority control of Worcestershire County Council - after being overthrown by a shock rainbow coalition.

    The Conservatives have teamed up with the Greens, Lib Dems and independents to form a power-sharing alliance in the last few minutes. 2/3”


    What are they thinking? Refusing to ally with Reform but quite happy to ally with quasi-Marxist, quasi-Islamist Greens?

    This kind of shit will doom them with right wing voters. They cannot be trusted. They are still Cameroon wets, whatever Kemi claims

    https://x.com/tomedwardsbbchw/status/2054863889808937351?s=46

    They did not back Reform in the Senedd either and it is the right approach
    Which is fine. They are not obliged to ally with reform. But allying with the frigging GREENS in preference to Reform is an insult to every right wing voter in Worcestershire. Why not ally with Corbyn? Whats she difference?

    I predict it will not go well for them. There or elsewhere. It will just make drifting right wing voters make the full leap to Reform

    The Greens are detestable and anti-British and completely penetrated by pro Palestinian nutters and crypto (not even that crypto) Islamists
    I'd guess the Green councillor corps varies a lot by location. In any case Reform are more anti British than the Greens are.
    I’d agree about the Green councillors. They’re probably bunny hugging NIMBYs there

    But reform anti British/more anti Brit than the Greens. You’re having a laugh 🤣🤣🤣🤣
    For sure, they parrot MAGA, they're halfway up Trump's rectum, they're pro Putin (and are doing jail time to prove it), and they seem to hate Britain as it actually exists rather than their 1950s white weewee version. Reform are the most anti British party out there.
    WTF does that gibberish even mean 🤣🤣🤣🤣
    "white wee-wee" is explained in this clip from The Gay Daleks

    https://youtu.be/z3pHvH8sPT4?si=CSyOlzHveT16FzqI&t=67
    Oh dear me

    LOL 🤣

    Did that make the DVD release ?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,424
    MattW said:

    Green Councillors.

    One stood down in Hackney as a council employee .. teacher. Also one similar in Camden. Also aiui the Mayor of Hackney ... Zoe Garbutt iirc... has I think not taken her councillor position.

    I have not checked it all and traced it as I am on a phone but I think that loses them largest party status in Hackney.

    As the mayor she’s not allowed to be a councillor. I expect the greens will win the vacancy easily enough
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,589

    Farage is a liar. First £5m was for security now it’s a reward for campaigning for Brexit?

    Please, he's a serial fabulist.
    (Yes, that's the same thing.)

    Nigel Farage says the £5m gift he received from Christopher Harborne was a "reward for campaigning for Brexit for 27 years"
    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/2054920974483497013
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,559
    So Worcestershire Reform have put Council Tax up by 9% then exited power after a year.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,082
    IanB2 said:

    I know this is the lesser political story but still

    BREAKING: Reform UK has LOST minority control of Worcestershire County Council - after being overthrown by a shock rainbow coalition.

    The Conservatives have teamed up with the Greens, Lib Dems and independents to form a power-sharing alliance in the last few minutes. 2/3”


    What are they thinking? Refusing to ally with Reform but quite happy to ally with quasi-Marxist, quasi-Islamist Greens?

    This kind of shit will doom them with right wing voters. They cannot be trusted. They are still Cameroon wets, whatever Kemi claims

    https://x.com/tomedwardsbbchw/status/2054863889808937351?s=46

    I spoke to one of our county councillors this morning, and efforts to do the same are underway on the island. The challenge is that it requires all four political parties plus every independent to play ball, to come off. Meanwhile they’ve been meeting some of the new Reform councillors, and clueless is the least that can be said.
    Wow. Must be true. I’m sure they’re informed view is wholly impartial 🤣
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 15,625

    Is it me or does "Where we need vision, we have vacuum. Where we need direction, we have drift" sound a bit... "Where there is discord, may we bring harmony"?

    Not sure sounding like Mrs T will endear you to the faithful, Wes.

    Thatch cribbed it from St. Francis.
  • MustaphaMondeoMustaphaMondeo Posts: 547
    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    We haven't had any sort of response form the Downing Street bunker yet. No letter in reply. No appointment of a new Health Secretary - have any of the earlier ministerial resignations been replaced? Seemingly nothing.

    Is it possible that Starmer's undecided as to whether to continue?

    Starmer and Reed are visiting a housing development so nothing much till Starmer returns to no 10
    Without a contestant Starmer can let this drift for a while longer. As it stands Starmer has nothing further to lose. His premiership is over. It is simply about time scale now.
    Agreed
    There is of course the small matter of the governance of the country in what are difficult times with the Strait of Hormuz still shut, an increasing shortage of jet fuel and fertiliser and, potentially, a Sovereign debt crisis but its silly to pretend that these weigh in the balance.
    Without the requirements of success, Starmer may be somewhat less useless. I don't believe he has done badly in directly negotiating Trump, Trump's war, the ramifications of that war and Trump's tariffs. Mandelson aside obviously.
    He has been right to stay out of the war although there seemed to be a UK minesweeper in the Straits recently. But what has our government done to prepare this country for the oil shock that is going to come? And it is coming, the only thing that remains uncertain is its duration.
    More wind turbines.

    Any North Sea oil production dividend as advocated by Badenoch is a handful of years away.

    We should have been more like Norway 45 years ago.
    We used the North Sea money over the past 45 years to keep the current show on the road as it allowed us to spend beyond our means
    10bn per year. Roundabout. I’ve never had something I couldn’t spend 10bn on.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,736
    Sean_F said:

    viewcode said:

    Good visualisation of the Labour and Tory squeeze

    https://x.com/OwenWntr/status/2054869340327993602

    image

    That's a great graph(s), thank you
    Apart from the bifurcation of Labour, it's interesting that a small Tory island has emerged between Labour and the Lib Dems. If Labour go left, that part of their coalition will be up for grabs and it could fall to the Tories.
    There is still a core Conservative vote, older, but better off than Reform. More rural, but also, with a solid vote in London, especially among Hindu and Jewish voters.

    There's a very solid Lib Dem among younger to middle aged, well to do voters, and likewise for Labour. The Greens do well among all classes, but very poorly with voters aged 40+.
    I am not so sure of your first paragraph. The sort of older lifelong Tories I rub shoulders with who were wealthy blue-collar retirees with a fondness for Powell and Brexit have to a man (and they are exclusively men) thrown their lot in with Farage and even Lowe.

    I would imagine any Tory revival is predicated on the support of a younger more enlightened cohort, thus Badenoch's Farage tribute act surprises me.
  • novanova Posts: 944
    Selebian said:

    Good visualisation of the Labour and Tory squeeze

    https://x.com/OwenWntr/status/2054869340327993602

    image

    Nice, but have to be a bit careful on interpretation - relative versus absolute. The data are mostly in the middle, so the outer parts are very sparse - particularly relevant for that sea of green.

    Not sure how I'd do it, maybe hexagons of equal size for population arranged broadly on those axes or some kind of shading. A lot more of e.g. the Lab area is for seats that actually exist, compared to the green and Ref areas.

    Fascinating nonetheless though.
    Surely they just shouldn't colour the background in, just the dots.

    The little dots are the data, and clustered enough for us to clearly see the different groupings, without the background distorting things.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,790
    Dura_Ace said:

    Is it me or does "Where we need vision, we have vacuum. Where we need direction, we have drift" sound a bit... "Where there is discord, may we bring harmony"?

    Not sure sounding like Mrs T will endear you to the faithful, Wes.

    Thatch cribbed it from St. Francis.
    Another right wing authoritarian, i have no doubt.
  • AbandonedHopeAbandonedHope Posts: 226
    Dura_Ace said:

    Is it me or does "Where we need vision, we have vacuum. Where we need direction, we have drift" sound a bit... "Where there is discord, may we bring harmony"?

    Not sure sounding like Mrs T will endear you to the faithful, Wes.

    Thatch cribbed it from St. Francis.
    I know that. You know that. The only thing the Labour Left will hear is Mrs T.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,736
    dixiedean said:

    So Worcestershire Reform have put Council Tax up by 9% then exited power after a year.

    Two flags per lamppost are not cheap you know.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,082
    Taz said:

    IanB2 said:

    I know this is the lesser political story but still

    BREAKING: Reform UK has LOST minority control of Worcestershire County Council - after being overthrown by a shock rainbow coalition.

    The Conservatives have teamed up with the Greens, Lib Dems and independents to form a power-sharing alliance in the last few minutes. 2/3”


    What are they thinking? Refusing to ally with Reform but quite happy to ally with quasi-Marxist, quasi-Islamist Greens?

    This kind of shit will doom them with right wing voters. They cannot be trusted. They are still Cameroon wets, whatever Kemi claims

    https://x.com/tomedwardsbbchw/status/2054863889808937351?s=46

    I spoke to one of our county councillors this morning, and efforts to do the same are underway on the island. The challenge is that it requires all four political parties plus every independent to play ball, to come off. Meanwhile they’ve been meeting some of the new Reform councillors, and clueless is the least that can be said.
    Wow. Must be true. I’m sure they’re informed view is wholly impartial 🤣
    Their.

    Ruddy predictive text
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 81,137
    Kemi has suspended the Worcs Tory leader

    Lol.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,736
    Pulpstar said:

    Kemi has suspended the Worcs Tory leader

    Lol.

    Understandable but a mistake. Screwing over Reform should take precedence over other issues.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,790
    Pulpstar said:

    Kemi has suspended the Worcs Tory leader

    Lol.

    Just the leader though?

    Tories still cannot decide if they will play nice with Reform or oppose them. Kemi cannot square that circle.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,424
    Taz said:

    IanB2 said:

    I know this is the lesser political story but still

    BREAKING: Reform UK has LOST minority control of Worcestershire County Council - after being overthrown by a shock rainbow coalition.

    The Conservatives have teamed up with the Greens, Lib Dems and independents to form a power-sharing alliance in the last few minutes. 2/3”


    What are they thinking? Refusing to ally with Reform but quite happy to ally with quasi-Marxist, quasi-Islamist Greens?

    This kind of shit will doom them with right wing voters. They cannot be trusted. They are still Cameroon wets, whatever Kemi claims

    https://x.com/tomedwardsbbchw/status/2054863889808937351?s=46

    I spoke to one of our county councillors this morning, and efforts to do the same are underway on the island. The challenge is that it requires all four political parties plus every independent to play ball, to come off. Meanwhile they’ve been meeting some of the new Reform councillors, and clueless is the least that can be said.
    Wow. Must be true. I’m sure they’re informed view is wholly impartial 🤣
    The councillor I was speaking to, who isn’t particularly party political, said he was sitting next to one of the Reform guys waiting to do the paperwork, and this guy was telling him that his wife saw the advert for Reform candidates online and suggested he should apply, so he filled in the form, and the next thing he knew he was standing in his local patch. He didn’t do any campaigning (although his ward did receive the nationally funded Farage mailshots) and then he found himself elected. The rest of the conversation consisted of some very elementary questions about what the job of councillor actually involved.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,673

    Phillipson: PM Has Full Support of Cabinet

    Some of these f******* won't get another job in Cabinet once Starmer falls. Reeves amongst others must realise the gig is up, at least in the short to medium term.

    Pretty much the only positive kpi reporting has been from the Department of Health. If any other department has achieved anything over the last two years, they have kept it to themselves.
    Was there not a story last week about people being kicked off waiting lists for not replying to postal letters they said they never received? Not one or two people either.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,564
    Pulpstar said:

    Kemi has suspended the Worcs Tory leader

    Lol.

    Kemi out!

    Putting Alan Amos in power is what should lead to being suspended by the Tories.
  • PeterCairnsPeterCairns Posts: 34
    "Where we need vision, we have vacuum. Where we need direction, we have drift"

    Where we community unity we get clique,.....where we need reason we get rhetoric... where we need principle we get posturing!

    If he wins it will just be Starmer Mk 2 or Son of son of Blair!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,424
    Sandpit said:

    Phillipson: PM Has Full Support of Cabinet

    Some of these f******* won't get another job in Cabinet once Starmer falls. Reeves amongst others must realise the gig is up, at least in the short to medium term.

    Pretty much the only positive kpi reporting has been from the Department of Health. If any other department has achieved anything over the last two years, they have kept it to themselves.
    Was there not a story last week about people being kicked off waiting lists for not replying to postal letters they said they never received? Not one or two people either.
    They’ve certainly done a purge of the waiting lists. Just cleaning out people who have died whilst waiting will shorten the list somewhat, and I am sure there are various other criteria they can use to clear out some of the names
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,424
    nova said:

    Selebian said:

    Good visualisation of the Labour and Tory squeeze

    https://x.com/OwenWntr/status/2054869340327993602

    image

    Nice, but have to be a bit careful on interpretation - relative versus absolute. The data are mostly in the middle, so the outer parts are very sparse - particularly relevant for that sea of green.

    Not sure how I'd do it, maybe hexagons of equal size for population arranged broadly on those axes or some kind of shading. A lot more of e.g. the Lab area is for seats that actually exist, compared to the green and Ref areas.

    Fascinating nonetheless though.
    Surely they just shouldn't colour the background in, just the dots.

    The little dots are the data, and clustered enough for us to clearly see the different groupings, without the background distorting things.
    Or make the diagram a circular one and cut off all the empty pastry around the edges
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,934
    Nigelb said:

    Farage is a liar. First £5m was for security now it’s a reward for campaigning for Brexit?

    Please, he's a serial fabulist.
    (Yes, that's the same thing.)

    Nigel Farage says the £5m gift he received from Christopher Harborne was a "reward for campaigning for Brexit for 27 years"
    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/2054920974483497013
    Income tax?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,736
    Sandpit said:

    Phillipson: PM Has Full Support of Cabinet

    Some of these f******* won't get another job in Cabinet once Starmer falls. Reeves amongst others must realise the gig is up, at least in the short to medium term.

    Pretty much the only positive kpi reporting has been from the Department of Health. If any other department has achieved anything over the last two years, they have kept it to themselves.
    Was there not a story last week about people being kicked off waiting lists for not replying to postal letters they said they never received? Not one or two people either.
    There is lots of smoke and mirrors around and there always has been. But credit where it is due. There hasn't been much credit available in the last ten years.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,673
    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ooh, go away for a couple of hours and it all kicks off.

    So do we think Streeting has 81 signatures on his challenger form?

    No.
    So we end up with the worst of all worlds, having gone through the last couple of weeks without an actual challenge, and the lame duck in No.10 surviving a list of a hundred backbenchers telling him to go?

    Now we have Streeting and Rayner on the outside pissing in, just to add to the chaos.
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 2,185
    Angela in a Secretary of State for Health and with permission to solve long running Junior Doctor dispute taking money from International Development would be my move if I was SKS!

    I don't think he has the balls, the cheek or the political instinct to try it though! Nor the power!
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 47,887
    Dura_Ace said:

    Is it me or does "Where we need vision, we have vacuum. Where we need direction, we have drift" sound a bit... "Where there is discord, may we bring harmony"?

    Not sure sounding like Mrs T will endear you to the faithful, Wes.

    Thatch cribbed it from St. Francis.
    An early example of the right purloining wokery for cynical reasons.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 20,924

    Farage is a liar. First £5m was for security now it’s a reward for campaigning for Brexit?

    The Parliamentary Code of Conduct says you don't have to register "Benefits which could not reasonably be thought by others to be related to membership of the House or to the Member’s parliamentary or political activities".

    Both of Farage's excuses for the money relate to his political activities. He needs security because of his political activities. A reward for Brexit is clearly directly related to his political activities. He damns himself with his own words.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,673
    IanB2 said:

    Taz said:

    IanB2 said:

    I know this is the lesser political story but still

    BREAKING: Reform UK has LOST minority control of Worcestershire County Council - after being overthrown by a shock rainbow coalition.

    The Conservatives have teamed up with the Greens, Lib Dems and independents to form a power-sharing alliance in the last few minutes. 2/3”


    What are they thinking? Refusing to ally with Reform but quite happy to ally with quasi-Marxist, quasi-Islamist Greens?

    This kind of shit will doom them with right wing voters. They cannot be trusted. They are still Cameroon wets, whatever Kemi claims

    https://x.com/tomedwardsbbchw/status/2054863889808937351?s=46

    I spoke to one of our county councillors this morning, and efforts to do the same are underway on the island. The challenge is that it requires all four political parties plus every independent to play ball, to come off. Meanwhile they’ve been meeting some of the new Reform councillors, and clueless is the least that can be said.
    Wow. Must be true. I’m sure they’re informed view is wholly impartial 🤣
    The councillor I was speaking to, who isn’t particularly party political, said he was sitting next to one of the Reform guys waiting to do the paperwork, and this guy was telling him that his wife saw the advert for Reform candidates online and suggested he should apply, so he filled in the form, and the next thing he knew he was standing in his local patch. He didn’t do any campaigning (although his ward did receive the nationally funded Farage mailshots) and then he found himself elected. The rest of the conversation consisted of some very elementary questions about what the job of councillor actually involved.
    There must be a few hundred of those stories around this week. A lot of people got elected last week who weren’t expecting it!
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 20,924
    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Phillipson: PM Has Full Support of Cabinet

    Some of these f******* won't get another job in Cabinet once Starmer falls. Reeves amongst others must realise the gig is up, at least in the short to medium term.

    Pretty much the only positive kpi reporting has been from the Department of Health. If any other department has achieved anything over the last two years, they have kept it to themselves.
    Was there not a story last week about people being kicked off waiting lists for not replying to postal letters they said they never received? Not one or two people either.
    They’ve certainly done a purge of the waiting lists. Just cleaning out people who have died whilst waiting will shorten the list somewhat, and I am sure there are various other criteria they can use to clear out some of the names
    Yes, they do that. But they've always done that. That's not some new idea that will have made a difference.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,589
    .

    Dura_Ace said:

    Is it me or does "Where we need vision, we have vacuum. Where we need direction, we have drift" sound a bit... "Where there is discord, may we bring harmony"?

    Not sure sounding like Mrs T will endear you to the faithful, Wes.

    Thatch cribbed it from St. Francis.
    I know that. You know that. The only thing the Labour Left will hear is Mrs T.
    She name checked him, when making the speech.
    It was an obvious bit of trolling.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,996
    edited May 14

    There's some very odd odds available on BF for next leader: Torsten Bell - 4; Georgia Gould - 9; Long Bailey - 9

    If you're logged in to an account, more odds show.

    Bell is 100
    Long-Bailey 510
    Gould 1000 (for PM, I can't see her listed for leader)

    These odds are pretty meaningless (other than maybe Bell) - as nobody wants to back them. it's not worth people bothering to offer odds.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,790
    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    Taz said:

    IanB2 said:

    I know this is the lesser political story but still

    BREAKING: Reform UK has LOST minority control of Worcestershire County Council - after being overthrown by a shock rainbow coalition.

    The Conservatives have teamed up with the Greens, Lib Dems and independents to form a power-sharing alliance in the last few minutes. 2/3”


    What are they thinking? Refusing to ally with Reform but quite happy to ally with quasi-Marxist, quasi-Islamist Greens?

    This kind of shit will doom them with right wing voters. They cannot be trusted. They are still Cameroon wets, whatever Kemi claims

    https://x.com/tomedwardsbbchw/status/2054863889808937351?s=46

    I spoke to one of our county councillors this morning, and efforts to do the same are underway on the island. The challenge is that it requires all four political parties plus every independent to play ball, to come off. Meanwhile they’ve been meeting some of the new Reform councillors, and clueless is the least that can be said.
    Wow. Must be true. I’m sure they’re informed view is wholly impartial 🤣
    The councillor I was speaking to, who isn’t particularly party political, said he was sitting next to one of the Reform guys waiting to do the paperwork, and this guy was telling him that his wife saw the advert for Reform candidates online and suggested he should apply, so he filled in the form, and the next thing he knew he was standing in his local patch. He didn’t do any campaigning (although his ward did receive the nationally funded Farage mailshots) and then he found himself elected. The rest of the conversation consisted of some very elementary questions about what the job of councillor actually involved.
    There must be a few hundred of those stories around this week. A lot of people got elected last week who weren’t expecting it!
    Even those more active often know little. Mostly they learn. Mostly.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 81,137
    Surely Starmer has to appoint big Ang to health (Or at least shuffle her back to Gov't somehow), now she's been cleared by HMRC and all.

This discussion has been closed.