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Ed Miliband becomes favourite to be next PM whilst Andy Burnham reeks of desperation

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  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,148
    7 of the 8 wards in Angela Rayner's constituency were won by Ref.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Tameside_Metropolitan_Borough_Council_election
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,789
    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    A council has confirmed there will be a by-election after a Reform UK councillor who posted a "defamatory" social media message about a Conservative candidate was found guilty of breaking electoral law.

    Andy Osborn, 74, was chairman of the North East Cambridgeshire Reform Party in April 2025, when he posted the message.

    He was convicted of making or publishing a false statement under the Representation of the People Act 1983 at Westminster Magistrates' Court last month.

    Cambridgeshire County Council said Osborn, who represented Roman Bank and Peckover, "has not lodged an appeal in time, therefore, he is no longer a county councillor".

    Osborn's court hearing was told he wrote on Facebook in April 2025: "Samantha Hoy worked in the care industry but allegedly was sacked for fraud no wonder Wisbech is in such a state. Reform UK will fix it."

    Hoy, who works in the care industry and has never been sacked or faced fraud allegations, later responded online, describing the claims as "an absolute lie and extremely defamatory and damaging".

    She is a councillor at both county and district level.

    Osborn claimed that his account had been hacked, but the judge dismissed this and found him guilty of the charge.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cr7p450kejro

    Reform continuing to attract high quality people I see.
    The LDs suspended a councillor for antisemitic remarks only a matter of days ago. All parties have tainted representatives
    They do, the question is which has the most and how do they treat them.
    I am, in no way, supportive of Reform. Any new party achieving large numbers of novice councilors will almost inevitably not have robust enough vetting procedures. Older parties have had decades to put those in place.

    Reform has got to weed out those with dodgy track records more effectively and efficiently.

    Any new party has a steep learning curve. But the quality of council candidates has been dropping for a long time. So it will be an issue for all parties for the foreseeable future.
    But mainly Reform.
    I wouldn't write the Greens off too soon.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 14,284

    rkrkrk said:

    Ed Miliband is the guy I like the most for PM.
    But I dont think the country agrees with me.

    Ed Miliband the eco-fanatic!
    Eco-fanaticism has much more support than Fossil-fanaticism, which is (sadly) the choice we might have at the next GE. The polling is very stark on this, PB is not representative at all.

    FWIW I think the best option of those available would be Miliband as Chancellor - pushing for slightly bonkers reforms in line with his Green New Deal plan, tempered by a canny PM (Cooper?).
  • murali_s said:

    Fair play to @TSE - if his 100/1 bet on Miliband comes in that might just be the best punt in PB history. Even better than OGH’s famous wager on the unknown Obama?

    It will just be terrible luck for the rest of us. Including Labour. I can see Miliband taking them down to around 10-13% in the polls

    Who cares about polls. It’s the GE that matters. Do you really think Labour under Ed would get 10-13% in a GE? Seriously?
    Dunno. I might be hysterical after my epic foodie walk in the Cheviots. But I can see Ed M failing to win back any Greens because he’s a boring old retread and I can see him losing even more centrists and centre lefties because he is quite seriously left wing and a lot of people hate the net zero obsession

    I am certain Farage will be delighted if Labour choose Ed. He’s the ideal opponent for reform. A cranky eco zealot with a known lack of charisma. Probably Farage’s fave of the four
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,148
    edited May 13

    Fair play to @TSE - if his 100/1 bet on Miliband comes in that might just be the best punt in PB history. Even better than OGH’s famous wager on the unknown Obama?

    It will just be terrible luck for the rest of us. Including Labour. I can see Miliband taking them down to around 10-13% in the polls

    I had a 100/1 bet on Labour getting between 34% and 35% at the last election but the stake was only £1 so it doesn't really count. I had larger bets on them polling between 35% and 36%, etc. In retrospect that 100/1 bet seems like amazing value.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,334
    edited May 13
    Kemi Badenoch is one of the best Commons performers I have seen, and I have seen Margaret Thatcher, John Smith, Tony Blair, William Hague and Stephen Flynn.
    John Rentoul, Independent email thingy.
  • Labour should really pause and consider that. Who does Farage most want? Ed Miliband
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,673
    dixiedean said:

    Interestingly. The new character they've given Marco Rubio is a different "lu". 魯 (Lu-bi-o)

    It appears in culu (rude or crude) lumang (reckless) and apparently slow witted.

    I don't think Western reporters have quite twigged that.

    Haha, if you’re on Twitter give a nudge to a couple of UK or US journos on the trip.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 6,012
    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    A council has confirmed there will be a by-election after a Reform UK councillor who posted a "defamatory" social media message about a Conservative candidate was found guilty of breaking electoral law.

    Andy Osborn, 74, was chairman of the North East Cambridgeshire Reform Party in April 2025, when he posted the message.

    He was convicted of making or publishing a false statement under the Representation of the People Act 1983 at Westminster Magistrates' Court last month.

    Cambridgeshire County Council said Osborn, who represented Roman Bank and Peckover, "has not lodged an appeal in time, therefore, he is no longer a county councillor".

    Osborn's court hearing was told he wrote on Facebook in April 2025: "Samantha Hoy worked in the care industry but allegedly was sacked for fraud no wonder Wisbech is in such a state. Reform UK will fix it."

    Hoy, who works in the care industry and has never been sacked or faced fraud allegations, later responded online, describing the claims as "an absolute lie and extremely defamatory and damaging".

    She is a councillor at both county and district level.

    Osborn claimed that his account had been hacked, but the judge dismissed this and found him guilty of the charge.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cr7p450kejro

    Reform continuing to attract high quality people I see.
    The LDs suspended a councillor for antisemitic remarks only a matter of days ago. All parties have tainted representatives
    They do, the question is which has the most and how do they treat them.
    I am, in no way, supportive of Reform. Any new party achieving large numbers of novice councilors will almost inevitably not have robust enough vetting procedures. Older parties have had decades to put those in place.

    Reform has got to weed out those with dodgy track records more effectively and efficiently.

    Any new party has a steep learning curve. But the quality of council candidates has been dropping for a long time. So it will be an issue for all parties for the foreseeable future.
    But mainly Reform.
    The same would happen with any new insurgent party. When you grow that quickly, things will be rocky to start with. So yes, Reform has a problem. But the same is true to a certain extent for the Greens. And the Green Party is the only one where candidates were arrested during the recent campaign as far as I can recall
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,424
    Scott_xP said:

    @JackElsom
    EXCL: Keir Starmer told ministers tonight that Wes can't win because it would "destroy our party and country".

    He invited all ministers into his study in the Commons.

    Ministers of state in one batch, followed by parliamentary under secretarties.

    One tells me the response was overwhelmingly positive re backing Starmer.

    "He was there doing the hard yards. There was something in his eyes I haven't seen before. And I liked it."

    Offering complete confidence in Streeting, rather than sacking him as Boris would have done, might in retrospect come to be seen as a masterstroke.
  • MelonBMelonB Posts: 17,363

    Labour should really pause and consider that. Who does Farage most want? Ed Miliband

    Whom does Zack most want? Wes Streeting.

    Actually whom do they both really want: Starmer to stay.
  • scampi25scampi25 Posts: 580
    It won't happen but imo the country deserves a GE after the shambles of the past few weeks. It's been disgraceful and there are zero signs of a resolution that can make things better. Meanwhile the country is a complete laughing stock all over the world. It's shameful.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,142

    murali_s said:

    Fair play to @TSE - if his 100/1 bet on Miliband comes in that might just be the best punt in PB history. Even better than OGH’s famous wager on the unknown Obama?

    It will just be terrible luck for the rest of us. Including Labour. I can see Miliband taking them down to around 10-13% in the polls

    Who cares about polls. It’s the GE that matters. Do you really think Labour under Ed would get 10-13% in a GE? Seriously?
    Dunno. I might be hysterical after my epic foodie walk in the Cheviots. But I can see Ed M failing to win back any Greens because he’s a boring old retread and I can see him losing even more centrists and centre lefties because he is quite seriously left wing and a lot of people hate the net zero obsession

    I am certain Farage will be delighted if Labour choose Ed. He’s the ideal opponent for reform. A cranky eco zealot with a known lack of charisma. Probably Farage’s fave of the four
    Let’s see - I can see him easily polling 25%. He is very popular with the London centrist set - whether that’s enough, who knows? Time will tell as ever but there is a way forward with Labour with Ed at the helm. I can’t see this with the other candidates. I could be wrong and let’s face it, no one really knows…
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,148
    edited May 13
    "Geri Scott
    @Geri_E_L_Scott

    Lots of discussion about which seat Andy Burnham has apparently secured for his route back to Westminster but I'm told it *is* Manchester Rusholme, currently held by Afzal Khan.

    As I understand it Khan is prepared to step down but will not make a final decision until after Wes Streeting launches his expected leadership bid.
    ...............................................................................................................................................................................................
    Winning a by-election in the constituency would not be straightforward for Burnham, though. The Greens came in second place in Khan’s seat at the general election and have since surged in the polls,and at last week’s local election comfortably won every ward in the seat – picking up 11,800 votes in the area to Labour’s 6,900 votes."

    https://x.com/Geri_E_L_Scott/status/2054624331754553582
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 20,934

    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    A council has confirmed there will be a by-election after a Reform UK councillor who posted a "defamatory" social media message about a Conservative candidate was found guilty of breaking electoral law.

    Andy Osborn, 74, was chairman of the North East Cambridgeshire Reform Party in April 2025, when he posted the message.

    He was convicted of making or publishing a false statement under the Representation of the People Act 1983 at Westminster Magistrates' Court last month.

    Cambridgeshire County Council said Osborn, who represented Roman Bank and Peckover, "has not lodged an appeal in time, therefore, he is no longer a county councillor".

    Osborn's court hearing was told he wrote on Facebook in April 2025: "Samantha Hoy worked in the care industry but allegedly was sacked for fraud no wonder Wisbech is in such a state. Reform UK will fix it."

    Hoy, who works in the care industry and has never been sacked or faced fraud allegations, later responded online, describing the claims as "an absolute lie and extremely defamatory and damaging".

    She is a councillor at both county and district level.

    Osborn claimed that his account had been hacked, but the judge dismissed this and found him guilty of the charge.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cr7p450kejro

    Reform continuing to attract high quality people I see.
    The LDs suspended a councillor for antisemitic remarks only a matter of days ago. All parties have tainted representatives
    They do, the question is which has the most and how do they treat them.
    I am, in no way, supportive of Reform. Any new party achieving large numbers of novice councilors will almost inevitably not have robust enough vetting procedures. Older parties have had decades to put those in place.

    Reform has got to weed out those with dodgy track records more effectively and efficiently.

    Any new party has a steep learning curve. But the quality of council candidates has been dropping for a long time. So it will be an issue for all parties for the foreseeable future.
    But mainly Reform.
    The same would happen with any new insurgent party. When you grow that quickly, things will be rocky to start with. So yes, Reform has a problem. But the same is true to a certain extent for the Greens. And the Green Party is the only one where candidates were arrested during the recent campaign as far as I can recall
    One Reform councillor was arrested, and found guilty, following last year’s campaign: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cr7p450kejro
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,559
    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    Interestingly. The new character they've given Marco Rubio is a different "lu". 魯 (Lu-bi-o)

    It appears in culu (rude or crude) lumang (reckless) and apparently slow witted.

    I don't think Western reporters have quite twigged that.

    Haha, if you’re on Twitter give a nudge to a couple of UK or US journos on the trip.
    Even better cu lu de ren (lit. Rude or unpleasant person) is Chinese for Neanderthal I now discover.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,750

    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sandpit said:

    Really interesting story.

    US Secretaty of State Marco Rubio is officially sanctioned by China, for his outspoken support of the Hong Kong protestors five years ago.

    But he’s now the American foreign minister, so of course he’s going to China with the President and a massive trade delegation.

    So the Chinese made a subtle change to the translation of his name, and all of a sudden they have no record of him ever having being sanctioned, and they don’t lose face by overturning the old decision.

    https://x.com/glennbeck/status/2054603850989097348

    It’s a great insight into how different parts of the world work diplomatically.

    A pedant writes.
    Unlikely to be a translation.
    More a transliteration.
    Ha yes, but the interviewee, an HK lady in the US, said translation.

    Don’t you actually speak Chinese?
    Used to but it's rusty now.
    Names are very weird though. It's utterly baffling what can and can't be a name.
    The most usual way is to approximate the sound though.
    Which is why I said transliterate.
    It's also why so many Chinese girls adopt Lynn, Amy or Lily as their "English" names.
    Yes, I used to work for an hotel company in the sandpit, and the Chinese would often take a ‘Western’ name.

    Which was a nightmare as an IT admin. We’d see names like “Han Win Chee (Sophie)” in the database, with email address sophie.han@… IT and HR had so many crazy discussions about it!
    Certainly in Hong Kong, Western names are given as part of school English lessons; often old fashioned ones such as Grace. The other confusion of course is the Chinese write forenames and surnames the other way round, which is fair enough, except that Wikipedia insists on reordering names to the Western convention.
    Yize Wu

    :innocent:
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,424

    PJH said:

    kle4 said:

    nico67 said:

    OMG IT IS HAPPENING

    Could Ed Miliband succeed Keir Starmer?

    Senior figures on the soft left say Angela Rayner just isn't up to it. There are concerns she would be a 'complete liability' - and that's before you get to the outstanding HMRC inquiry

    Andy Burnham is struggling to find a seat. And even if he finds a seat, secures NEC approval and manages to win it - none of which is a given - he wouldn't be in Westminster for months

    We reported today that Miliband has explicitly told Cabinet colleagues that he would be prepared to stand if Streeting triggered a contest. This was denied by those close to Miliband

    But ministers are today saying that it will have to be him if Streeting goes over the top. The soft-left can only have one candidate, and at the moment he is the logical choice...


    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2054552677300744273

    So the soft left want to put in place a leader who has already been rejected by the country ! They’re insane . Why don’t they just collapse the government so we can dispense with the 3 years of Labour MPs pretending he can win an election and go right to the bit where Reform take over !
    It was more than a decade ago, that's fine for a second chance.

    Bad idea though.
    And the alternative was David Cameron.

    In 2028/9 the alternative will be Farage or Polanski.
    And Miliband was up against a falsely positive view of Cameron - who was flattered by being forced to be in a coalition with the LDs who (with hindsight) significantly restricted the Conservatives' ability to do bonkers stuff, as subsequent events have shown.
    What really did for Miliband was Scotland. He gained seats from both Tories and Lib Dems elsewhere.
    Not this again.

    Even if Labour had won every seat in Scotland Dave would still have had a majority.
    Scotland did do for Miliband. Remember "coalition of chaos" and that artwork of Miliband in Salmond's pocket? All over Conservative election literature in England.
    Deeply unfair as Ed was the one with the bright idea of barbed wire and watchtowers at the border if Scotland went independent, but them’s the breaks.
    If Ed sunk to stealing ideas from our HY he doesn’t deserve to be PM
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,750
    Andy_JS said:

    7 of the 8 wards in Angela Rayner's constituency were won by Ref.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Tameside_Metropolitan_Borough_Council_election

    Labour won most of the wards making up Streeting's Ilford North.

    https://www.redbridge.gov.uk/voting-and-elections/local-election-results/
  • MattWMattW Posts: 33,487
    edited May 13
    At what point does Andy Burnham have to stand down as Mayor of GM?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,750
    MelonB said:

    Fair play to @TSE - if his 100/1 bet on Miliband comes in that might just be the best punt in PB history. Even better than OGH’s famous wager on the unknown Obama?

    It will just be terrible luck for the rest of us. Including Labour. I can see Miliband taking them down to around 10-13% in the polls

    Miliband will be more divisive and assertively tribal than Starmer. His floor may therefore be higher, especially if he mixes in a bit of rejoin. Most of Labour’s recent decline in polls has been to the Greens.
    No way can Labour defeat Reform in 2029 from the left.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,559

    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sandpit said:

    Really interesting story.

    US Secretaty of State Marco Rubio is officially sanctioned by China, for his outspoken support of the Hong Kong protestors five years ago.

    But he’s now the American foreign minister, so of course he’s going to China with the President and a massive trade delegation.

    So the Chinese made a subtle change to the translation of his name, and all of a sudden they have no record of him ever having being sanctioned, and they don’t lose face by overturning the old decision.

    https://x.com/glennbeck/status/2054603850989097348

    It’s a great insight into how different parts of the world work diplomatically.

    A pedant writes.
    Unlikely to be a translation.
    More a transliteration.
    Ha yes, but the interviewee, an HK lady in the US, said translation.

    Don’t you actually speak Chinese?
    Used to but it's rusty now.
    Names are very weird though. It's utterly baffling what can and can't be a name.
    The most usual way is to approximate the sound though.
    Which is why I said transliterate.
    It's also why so many Chinese girls adopt Lynn, Amy or Lily as their "English" names.
    Yes, I used to work for an hotel company in the sandpit, and the Chinese would often take a ‘Western’ name.

    Which was a nightmare as an IT admin. We’d see names like “Han Win Chee (Sophie)” in the database, with email address sophie.han@… IT and HR had so many crazy discussions about it!
    Certainly in Hong Kong, Western names are given as part of school English lessons; often old fashioned ones such as Grace. The other confusion of course is the Chinese write forenames and surnames the other way round, which is fair enough, except that Wikipedia insists on reordering names to the Western convention.
    Yize Wu

    :innocent:
    Woo Yizzer as the commentators infuriatingly insist.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,559

    MelonB said:

    Fair play to @TSE - if his 100/1 bet on Miliband comes in that might just be the best punt in PB history. Even better than OGH’s famous wager on the unknown Obama?

    It will just be terrible luck for the rest of us. Including Labour. I can see Miliband taking them down to around 10-13% in the polls

    Miliband will be more divisive and assertively tribal than Starmer. His floor may therefore be higher, especially if he mixes in a bit of rejoin. Most of Labour’s recent decline in polls has been to the Greens.
    No way can Labour defeat Reform in 2029 from the left.
    You're suggesting they need to be on Reform's right?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 81,139
    Rusholme is a decent constituency for Burnham to go for, he needs to overcome the Greens to win it. If he can't do that he's not going to be any good in an election. So it's a decent test
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,142

    MelonB said:

    Fair play to @TSE - if his 100/1 bet on Miliband comes in that might just be the best punt in PB history. Even better than OGH’s famous wager on the unknown Obama?

    It will just be terrible luck for the rest of us. Including Labour. I can see Miliband taking them down to around 10-13% in the polls

    Miliband will be more divisive and assertively tribal than Starmer. His floor may therefore be higher, especially if he mixes in a bit of rejoin. Most of Labour’s recent decline in polls has been to the Greens.
    No way can Labour defeat Reform in 2029 from the left.
    It’s the only way, there is no other path.
  • eekeek Posts: 33,909
    MattW said:

    At what point does Andy Burnham have to stand down as Mayor of GM?

    As soon as he’s a candidate
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,750
    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Greens and Tories in Enfield likely to cooperate to stop new housebuilding on the green belt.

    https://enfielddispatch.co.uk/enfield-council-under-no-overall-control-as-tories-fall-one-seat-short-of-majority/

    Nimbyism being stronger than any other ideology is no surprise.
    Killed London's "Ringways" plan dead back in the 1970s.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 5,207

    Labour should really pause and consider that. Who does Farage most want? Ed Miliband

    Actually, I think not. Farage (if he has any sense) will want the candidate he can most easily portray as representing continuity Starmer, and Streeting fits that shoe better. Starmer with a bit of veneer which would quickly wear off.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,320
    scampi25 said:

    It won't happen but imo the country deserves a GE after the shambles of the past few weeks. It's been disgraceful and there are zero signs of a resolution that can make things better. Meanwhile the country is a complete laughing stock all over the world. It's shameful.

    We’re catching onto Italy which used to change leaders almost every year ! I admit it’s been a shambles and utterly self-indulgent at a time when there’s an economic storm coming . There is an issue though that I’m beginning to think the UK is becoming ungovernable.

    Public expectation outweighs what can be delivered, politicians keep lying about what’s needed.

    I wouldn’t go as far as saying the country is a laughing stock , I’m still very grateful to live here . For all its faults the UK still has a lot going for it . And it certainly deserves better in terms of the quality of its politicians .
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 6,012

    MelonB said:

    Fair play to @TSE - if his 100/1 bet on Miliband comes in that might just be the best punt in PB history. Even better than OGH’s famous wager on the unknown Obama?

    It will just be terrible luck for the rest of us. Including Labour. I can see Miliband taking them down to around 10-13% in the polls

    Miliband will be more divisive and assertively tribal than Starmer. His floor may therefore be higher, especially if he mixes in a bit of rejoin. Most of Labour’s recent decline in polls has been to the Greens.
    No way can Labour defeat Reform in 2029 from the left.
    They can take back some votes from the Greens by tacking to the left but almost certainly not enough ad they would lose more to Reform by doing so
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 43,511
    @chadbourn.bsky.social‬

    Away from the deals, US diplomats and China analysts are terrified Trump will go totally off-piste, as usual, and promise the US won’t support Taiwanese independence, a major Chinese aim. At the moment the diplomatic language is more neutral.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,750
    edited May 13
    dixiedean said:

    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    Interestingly. The new character they've given Marco Rubio is a different "lu". 魯 (Lu-bi-o)

    It appears in culu (rude or crude) lumang (reckless) and apparently slow witted.

    I don't think Western reporters have quite twigged that.

    Haha, if you’re on Twitter give a nudge to a couple of UK or US journos on the trip.
    Even better cu lu de ren (lit. Rude or unpleasant person) is Chinese for Neanderthal I now discover.
    I remember my undergrad at Imperial some 30 years back, we had some ethnic Chinese from Hong Kong, Singapore and Malaysia, with names like Arlene, Benny, Gary, and Louisa. Although there was one UK-based girl who only had a Chinese name, Wai-Pin.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 13,446
    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sandpit said:

    Really interesting story.

    US Secretaty of State Marco Rubio is officially sanctioned by China, for his outspoken support of the Hong Kong protestors five years ago.

    But he’s now the American foreign minister, so of course he’s going to China with the President and a massive trade delegation.

    So the Chinese made a subtle change to the translation of his name, and all of a sudden they have no record of him ever having being sanctioned, and they don’t lose face by overturning the old decision.

    https://x.com/glennbeck/status/2054603850989097348

    It’s a great insight into how different parts of the world work diplomatically.

    A pedant writes.
    Unlikely to be a translation.
    More a transliteration.
    Ha yes, but the interviewee, an HK lady in the US, said translation.

    Don’t you actually speak Chinese?
    It’s just a subtle change in the words and suddenly means something totally different
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,858
    Burnham and his backers are deluded, he isn't even an MP now let alone in the Cabinet. If Streeting has the Labour MPs behind him for a leadership challenge then Starmer as incumbent PM and Labour leader will automatically be on the ballot and certainly won't stand down for someone ineligible. So if Burnham backers won't back Rayner either that only leaves Ed Miliband as a potential soft left candidate but he may decide to stay in the Cabinet and loyal to the PM for now to beat Streeting
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,858

    MelonB said:

    Fair play to @TSE - if his 100/1 bet on Miliband comes in that might just be the best punt in PB history. Even better than OGH’s famous wager on the unknown Obama?

    It will just be terrible luck for the rest of us. Including Labour. I can see Miliband taking them down to around 10-13% in the polls

    Miliband will be more divisive and assertively tribal than Starmer. His floor may therefore be higher, especially if he mixes in a bit of rejoin. Most of Labour’s recent decline in polls has been to the Greens.
    No way can Labour defeat Reform in 2029 from the left.
    They can take back some votes from the Greens by tacking to the left but almost certainly not enough ad they would lose more to Reform by doing so
    The biggest beneficiaries of Labour tacking left would be the Tories and LDs who could pitch themselves as the centre parties against Labour and the Greens on the left and Reform on the right
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 56,832
    nico67 said:

    Apparently there are no receipts for all that security Farage allegedly spent protecting himself and his girlfriend who doesn’t have much money managed to buy a million pound house soon after Farage received the donation!

    What an extraordinary coincidence!

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,743
    edited May 13
    scampi25 said:

    It won't happen but imo the country deserves a GE after the shambles of the past few weeks. It's been disgraceful and there are zero signs of a resolution that can make things better. Meanwhile the country is a complete laughing stock all over the world. It's shameful.

    It doesn't work like that, as you well know from a roll call of Tory Prime Ministers since December 2019. Did you demand a GE after Johnson and Truss? At the Truss exit point we were looking far worse than we are now.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 56,832
    On a lighter note, Doncaster Reform are taking the threat of illegal aliens very seriously:

    BBC News - Reform UK councillor calls for airport 'UFO safety committee' - BBC News
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/czd204pd36mo?app-referrer=deep-link
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,320
    Good grief what a loathsome creature . I know all parties have issues but Reform do seem to attract a disproportionate amount of vile people to be councillors.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,126
    Andy_JS said:

    "Geri Scott
    @Geri_E_L_Scott

    Lots of discussion about which seat Andy Burnham has apparently secured for his route back to Westminster but I'm told it *is* Manchester Rusholme, currently held by Afzal Khan.

    As I understand it Khan is prepared to step down but will not make a final decision until after Wes Streeting launches his expected leadership bid.
    ...............................................................................................................................................................................................
    Winning a by-election in the constituency would not be straightforward for Burnham, though. The Greens came in second place in Khan’s seat at the general election and have since surged in the polls,and at last week’s local election comfortably won every ward in the seat – picking up 11,800 votes in the area to Labour’s 6,900 votes."

    https://x.com/Geri_E_L_Scott/status/2054624331754553582

    The question is will the NEC allow Burnham to resign from mayor and virtually hand the role to reform ?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 22,860
    Foxy said:

    nico67 said:

    Apparently there are no receipts for all that security Farage allegedly spent protecting himself and his girlfriend who doesn’t have much money managed to buy a million pound house soon after Farage received the donation!

    What an extraordinary coincidence!

    Doesn't like the sort of thing that a quality, professional security agency would do.

    Maybe Farage should call Trading Standards.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,743
    eek said:

    MattW said:

    At what point does Andy Burnham have to stand down as Mayor of GM?

    As soon as he’s a candidate
    Does he? What happens when he loses?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 56,832
    edited May 13

    Foxy said:

    nico67 said:

    Apparently there are no receipts for all that security Farage allegedly spent protecting himself and his girlfriend who doesn’t have much money managed to buy a million pound house soon after Farage received the donation!

    What an extraordinary coincidence!

    Doesn't like the sort of thing that a quality, professional security agency would do.

    Maybe Farage should call Trading Standards.
    Does a large bar tab count as security expenditure if there is a bouncer on the door?

    Asking for a friend...
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 22,860

    eek said:

    MattW said:

    At what point does Andy Burnham have to stand down as Mayor of GM?

    As soon as he’s a candidate
    Does he? What happens when he loses?
    We all point and laugh.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 23,128

    Andy_JS said:

    "Geri Scott
    @Geri_E_L_Scott

    Lots of discussion about which seat Andy Burnham has apparently secured for his route back to Westminster but I'm told it *is* Manchester Rusholme, currently held by Afzal Khan.

    As I understand it Khan is prepared to step down but will not make a final decision until after Wes Streeting launches his expected leadership bid.
    ...............................................................................................................................................................................................
    Winning a by-election in the constituency would not be straightforward for Burnham, though. The Greens came in second place in Khan’s seat at the general election and have since surged in the polls,and at last week’s local election comfortably won every ward in the seat – picking up 11,800 votes in the area to Labour’s 6,900 votes."

    https://x.com/Geri_E_L_Scott/status/2054624331754553582

    The question is will the NEC allow Burnham to resign from mayor and virtually hand the role to reform ?
    There's no way Manchester will vote Reform for Mayor or anthing else.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 20,934
    Foxy said:

    On a lighter note, Doncaster Reform are taking the threat of illegal aliens very seriously:

    BBC News - Reform UK councillor calls for airport 'UFO safety committee' - BBC News
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/czd204pd36mo?app-referrer=deep-link
    So when they said they don’t like illegal aliens, they actually meant they don’t like illegal aliens.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 43,511
    @wesstreeting
    Aug 1, 2022
    Leave the infighting to the Tories.

    Keir Starmer has taken Labour from its worst defeat since 1935 to a place where we can win the next general election. He doesn’t get nearly enough credit for it.

    This is a team effort. I’m proud to support candidates who want Labour to win.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,424
    We have a couple of young guys on the town council at the moment, and one of them, who has half an eye on a future career in politics, has been surprised at the extent of personality conflict and internal strife among both members and staff, given that we’re essentially bald men fighting over half of a broken comb, and really have nothing of any importance to decide. He seems to think he’s not getting the induction into politics from the ground up that he’d hoped for, and has instead found himself inside some sort of dysfunctional madhouse. I try to reassure him that he’s actually getting the perfect insight into what politics is mostly like, since at all levels from principal council through Parliament up to cabinet and number ten, far more comes down to people and personalities, and is decided by who likes who or owes a favour to whom or wants to get back at whom, rather than the sort of attempt at objective assessment of best policies that the person in the street might expect us to be concentrating upon, than we would care to admit. Certainly my time as a leading London councllor was filled with issues that were all about personalities and personal conflicts. Current events nationally make my explaining all of this so very much easier.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 56,832
    Roger said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Geri Scott
    @Geri_E_L_Scott

    Lots of discussion about which seat Andy Burnham has apparently secured for his route back to Westminster but I'm told it *is* Manchester Rusholme, currently held by Afzal Khan.

    As I understand it Khan is prepared to step down but will not make a final decision until after Wes Streeting launches his expected leadership bid.
    ...............................................................................................................................................................................................
    Winning a by-election in the constituency would not be straightforward for Burnham, though. The Greens came in second place in Khan’s seat at the general election and have since surged in the polls,and at last week’s local election comfortably won every ward in the seat – picking up 11,800 votes in the area to Labour’s 6,900 votes."

    https://x.com/Geri_E_L_Scott/status/2054624331754553582

    The question is will the NEC allow Burnham to resign from mayor and virtually hand the role to reform ?
    There's no way Manchester will vote Reform for Mayor or anthing else.
    Sadly the Local Election results say they might well do so.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,559
    Roger said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Geri Scott
    @Geri_E_L_Scott

    Lots of discussion about which seat Andy Burnham has apparently secured for his route back to Westminster but I'm told it *is* Manchester Rusholme, currently held by Afzal Khan.

    As I understand it Khan is prepared to step down but will not make a final decision until after Wes Streeting launches his expected leadership bid.
    ...............................................................................................................................................................................................
    Winning a by-election in the constituency would not be straightforward for Burnham, though. The Greens came in second place in Khan’s seat at the general election and have since surged in the polls,and at last week’s local election comfortably won every ward in the seat – picking up 11,800 votes in the area to Labour’s 6,900 votes."

    https://x.com/Geri_E_L_Scott/status/2054624331754553582

    The question is will the NEC allow Burnham to resign from mayor and virtually hand the role to reform ?
    There's no way Manchester will vote Reform for Mayor or anthing else.
    It's GREATER Manchester.
    The City wouldn't. But it won't be asked too.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,858
    edited May 13

    PJH said:

    kle4 said:

    nico67 said:

    OMG IT IS HAPPENING

    Could Ed Miliband succeed Keir Starmer?

    Senior figures on the soft left say Angela Rayner just isn't up to it. There are concerns she would be a 'complete liability' - and that's before you get to the outstanding HMRC inquiry

    Andy Burnham is struggling to find a seat. And even if he finds a seat, secures NEC approval and manages to win it - none of which is a given - he wouldn't be in Westminster for months

    We reported today that Miliband has explicitly told Cabinet colleagues that he would be prepared to stand if Streeting triggered a contest. This was denied by those close to Miliband

    But ministers are today saying that it will have to be him if Streeting goes over the top. The soft-left can only have one candidate, and at the moment he is the logical choice...


    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2054552677300744273

    So the soft left want to put in place a leader who has already been rejected by the country ! They’re insane . Why don’t they just collapse the government so we can dispense with the 3 years of Labour MPs pretending he can win an election and go right to the bit where Reform take over !
    It was more than a decade ago, that's fine for a second chance.

    Bad idea though.
    And the alternative was David Cameron.

    In 2028/9 the alternative will be Farage or Polanski.
    And Miliband was up against a falsely positive view of Cameron - who was flattered by being forced to be in a coalition with the LDs who (with hindsight) significantly restricted the Conservatives' ability to do bonkers stuff, as subsequent events have shown.
    What really did for Miliband was Scotland. He gained seats from both Tories and Lib Dems elsewhere.
    The Tories made net gains from Labour in England and Wales outside of London in 2015, Ed Miliband's only net gains from the Tories in 2015 were in London. All the seats he gained in London are now safe Labour anyway
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,743
    Scott_xP said:

    @wesstreeting
    Aug 1, 2022
    Leave the infighting to the Tories.

    Keir Starmer has taken Labour from its worst defeat since 1935 to a place where we can win the next general election. He doesn’t get nearly enough credit for it.

    This is a team effort. I’m proud to support candidates who want Labour to win.

    Starmer has disappointed. 2022 seems a long time ago.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 3,242
    Sandpit said:

    Really interesting story.

    US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is officially sanctioned by China, for his outspoken support of the Hong Kong protestors five years ago. Well done that man!

    But he’s now the American foreign minister, so of course he’s going to China with the President and a massive trade delegation.

    So the Chinese made a subtle change to the translation of his name, and all of a sudden they have no record of him ever having being sanctioned, and they don’t lose face by overturning the old decision.

    https://x.com/glennbeck/status/2054603850989097348

    It’s a great insight into how different parts of the world work diplomatically, and the nuanced discussions that lead up to major summits.

    Different strokes?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 33,487
    edited May 13

    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    A council has confirmed there will be a by-election after a Reform UK councillor who posted a "defamatory" social media message about a Conservative candidate was found guilty of breaking electoral law.

    Andy Osborn, 74, was chairman of the North East Cambridgeshire Reform Party in April 2025, when he posted the message.

    He was convicted of making or publishing a false statement under the Representation of the People Act 1983 at Westminster Magistrates' Court last month.

    Cambridgeshire County Council said Osborn, who represented Roman Bank and Peckover, "has not lodged an appeal in time, therefore, he is no longer a county councillor".

    Osborn's court hearing was told he wrote on Facebook in April 2025: "Samantha Hoy worked in the care industry but allegedly was sacked for fraud no wonder Wisbech is in such a state. Reform UK will fix it."

    Hoy, who works in the care industry and has never been sacked or faced fraud allegations, later responded online, describing the claims as "an absolute lie and extremely defamatory and damaging".

    She is a councillor at both county and district level.

    Osborn claimed that his account had been hacked, but the judge dismissed this and found him guilty of the charge.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cr7p450kejro

    Reform continuing to attract high quality people I see.
    The LDs suspended a councillor for antisemitic remarks only a matter of days ago. All parties have tainted representatives
    They do, the question is which has the most and how do they treat them.
    I am, in no way, supportive of Reform. Any new party achieving large numbers of novice councilors will almost inevitably not have robust enough vetting procedures. Older parties have had decades to put those in place.

    Reform has got to weed out those with dodgy track records more effectively and efficiently.

    Any new party has a steep learning curve. But the quality of council candidates has been dropping for a long time. So it will be an issue for all parties for the foreseeable future.
    But mainly Reform.
    The same would happen with any new insurgent party. When you grow that quickly, things will be rocky to start with. So yes, Reform has a problem. But the same is true to a certain extent for the Greens. And the Green Party is the only one where candidates were arrested during the recent campaign as far as I can recall
    I don't think it counts as a "new insurgent party" any more. That story went out of use by date a long, long time ago.

    The last election was nearly 2 years ago, and months before that Farage informed us that he had a world class vetting process, as he has done repeatedly. And every time he falls flat on his face when that narrative turns out to be 22 carat BS he comes up with some self-serving wibble about "a few bad apples", and various other bits of flim-flam.

    Any party which loses 1 in 9 of its Councillors in the first 12 months, and spends most of that first 12 months in a rabbit-in-the-headlights pose because they swallowed their own fictional claims about the situation in local government rather than doing any homework - like reading up on past reports and financial history - is not fit for purpose.

    He has seemingly unlimited money - leaving aside the honesty and morality, and something like 50-100 staff running the party, ensconced if I have it right in the Millbank Tower, like New Labour.

    Farage is entirely out of excuses.

    Yes - I'd make a similar point about the Greens. At this moment they are more of a new kid on the block although it is fair to say that they have built a base more gradually whilst Farage has run different parties, so have a greater excuse. Let's take a rain check in 6 then 12 months on them. They will also get routine scrutiny from the national media, in a way that Reform have not so far.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,148
    edited May 13
    Pulpstar said:

    Rusholme is a decent constituency for Burnham to go for, he needs to overcome the Greens to win it. If he can't do that he's not going to be any good in an election. So it's a decent test

    The Tories, Reform and LDs probably wouldn't bother to seriously campaign in Rusholme, leaving anyone who doesn't like Labour to vote Green. Which is why the Greens would probably win.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 6,012
    Scott_xP said:

    @wesstreeting
    Aug 1, 2022
    Leave the infighting to the Tories.

    Keir Starmer has taken Labour from its worst defeat since 1935 to a place where we can win the next general election. He doesn’t get nearly enough credit for it.

    This is a team effort. I’m proud to support candidates who want Labour to win.

    The problem is Starmer didn't actually create a plan for how he was going to govern or set out a clear vision.

    So it was a remarkable turn around but what happened after the win is why we are where we are
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,858
    Andy_JS said:

    Freshwater Strategy

    ➡️Ref: 29% (+3)
    🔵Con: 20% (+1)
    🔴Lab: 18% (-4)
    🟠Lib: 14% (+1)
    🟢Grn: 12% (-3)

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/2054597003997258169

    Terrible poll for the Greens, collapsed to 5th behind the LDs. Not great for Labour either as the Tories overtake them and Reform extend their lead
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,750
    HYUFD said:

    PJH said:

    kle4 said:

    nico67 said:

    OMG IT IS HAPPENING

    Could Ed Miliband succeed Keir Starmer?

    Senior figures on the soft left say Angela Rayner just isn't up to it. There are concerns she would be a 'complete liability' - and that's before you get to the outstanding HMRC inquiry

    Andy Burnham is struggling to find a seat. And even if he finds a seat, secures NEC approval and manages to win it - none of which is a given - he wouldn't be in Westminster for months

    We reported today that Miliband has explicitly told Cabinet colleagues that he would be prepared to stand if Streeting triggered a contest. This was denied by those close to Miliband

    But ministers are today saying that it will have to be him if Streeting goes over the top. The soft-left can only have one candidate, and at the moment he is the logical choice...


    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2054552677300744273

    So the soft left want to put in place a leader who has already been rejected by the country ! They’re insane . Why don’t they just collapse the government so we can dispense with the 3 years of Labour MPs pretending he can win an election and go right to the bit where Reform take over !
    It was more than a decade ago, that's fine for a second chance.

    Bad idea though.
    And the alternative was David Cameron.

    In 2028/9 the alternative will be Farage or Polanski.
    And Miliband was up against a falsely positive view of Cameron - who was flattered by being forced to be in a coalition with the LDs who (with hindsight) significantly restricted the Conservatives' ability to do bonkers stuff, as subsequent events have shown.
    What really did for Miliband was Scotland. He gained seats from both Tories and Lib Dems elsewhere.
    The Tories made net gains from Labour in England and Wales outside of London in 2015, Ed Miliband's only net gains from the Tories in 2015 were in London. All the seats he gained in London are now safe Labour anyway
    Except for Ilford North?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,858
    edited May 13
    Andy_JS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Rusholme is a decent constituency for Burnham to go for, he needs to overcome the Greens to win it. If he can't do that he's not going to be any good in an election. So it's a decent test

    The Tories, Reform and LDs probably wouldn't bother to seriously campaign in Rusholme, leaving anyone who doesn't like Labour to vote Green. Which is why the Greens would probably win.
    Burnham polls better with Green and Reform than Tory voters so of course the Tories would stand and compete in the seat
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,559
    Willing to assert Burnham will hold Rusholme pretty comfortably should it come to pass.

    And the air will hang heavy like a dulling wine.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,424
    Andy_JS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Rusholme is a decent constituency for Burnham to go for, he needs to overcome the Greens to win it. If he can't do that he's not going to be any good in an election. So it's a decent test

    The Tories, Reform and LDs probably wouldn't bother to seriously campaign in Rusholme, leaving anyone who doesn't like Labour to vote Green. Which is why the Greens would probably win.
    Given that Burnham appears ready to embrace a pluralist centre-left agenda of political reform including a fairer voting system, it’s not obvious why the LibDems should be thinking of putting up a candidate against him in the first place?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,424

    HYUFD said:

    PJH said:

    kle4 said:

    nico67 said:

    OMG IT IS HAPPENING

    Could Ed Miliband succeed Keir Starmer?

    Senior figures on the soft left say Angela Rayner just isn't up to it. There are concerns she would be a 'complete liability' - and that's before you get to the outstanding HMRC inquiry

    Andy Burnham is struggling to find a seat. And even if he finds a seat, secures NEC approval and manages to win it - none of which is a given - he wouldn't be in Westminster for months

    We reported today that Miliband has explicitly told Cabinet colleagues that he would be prepared to stand if Streeting triggered a contest. This was denied by those close to Miliband

    But ministers are today saying that it will have to be him if Streeting goes over the top. The soft-left can only have one candidate, and at the moment he is the logical choice...


    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2054552677300744273

    So the soft left want to put in place a leader who has already been rejected by the country ! They’re insane . Why don’t they just collapse the government so we can dispense with the 3 years of Labour MPs pretending he can win an election and go right to the bit where Reform take over !
    It was more than a decade ago, that's fine for a second chance.

    Bad idea though.
    And the alternative was David Cameron.

    In 2028/9 the alternative will be Farage or Polanski.
    And Miliband was up against a falsely positive view of Cameron - who was flattered by being forced to be in a coalition with the LDs who (with hindsight) significantly restricted the Conservatives' ability to do bonkers stuff, as subsequent events have shown.
    What really did for Miliband was Scotland. He gained seats from both Tories and Lib Dems elsewhere.
    The Tories made net gains from Labour in England and Wales outside of London in 2015, Ed Miliband's only net gains from the Tories in 2015 were in London. All the seats he gained in London are now safe Labour anyway
    Except for Ilford North?
    That’s completely safe
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 26,261

    I don't know about others but I'm seeing some of the details from the latest report on the October 7 atrocities on my social media. I can't say I want to read it all in detail but it comes across as the most disgusting, depraved, sadistic, purposefully cruel thing I've ever seen. Someone like Sean F will know more with regard to behaviour in other wars and how rare it is but let us reflect on two and a half years of protest on our streets by people who it is hard to imagine ever considering any of that and many would probably deny it happened. We shouldn't hide our anger about what has happened to this country.

    Rape in warfare is not unusual at all. But this was rape - and sadistic rape and torture - as warfare. It is quite unbearable to read. And note that men were raped too and family members forced to sexually assault each other. The sadism is revolting.

    People who defend or justify this as resistance or otherwise glorify it are scum. Those who deny it are no better than Holocaust deniers.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 43,511
    @GuidoFawkes

    ANDY BURNHAM will try to return to the Commons by taking Afzal Khan’s Manchester Rusholme seat.

    Khan has previously denied he would give up the seat.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 26,261
    Nothing would better exemplify Labour's contempt for the voters than foisting on us as PM someone the voters rejected 11 years ago.

  • MattWMattW Posts: 33,487
    edited May 13
    eek said:

    MattW said:

    At what point does Andy Burnham have to stand down as Mayor of GM?

    As soon as he’s a candidate
    If he were me, he would not take it on at that risk / reward level.

    But he is not me.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 50,673
    edited May 13

    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    A council has confirmed there will be a by-election after a Reform UK councillor who posted a "defamatory" social media message about a Conservative candidate was found guilty of breaking electoral law.

    Andy Osborn, 74, was chairman of the North East Cambridgeshire Reform Party in April 2025, when he posted the message.

    He was convicted of making or publishing a false statement under the Representation of the People Act 1983 at Westminster Magistrates' Court last month.

    Cambridgeshire County Council said Osborn, who represented Roman Bank and Peckover, "has not lodged an appeal in time, therefore, he is no longer a county councillor".

    Osborn's court hearing was told he wrote on Facebook in April 2025: "Samantha Hoy worked in the care industry but allegedly was sacked for fraud no wonder Wisbech is in such a state. Reform UK will fix it."

    Hoy, who works in the care industry and has never been sacked or faced fraud allegations, later responded online, describing the claims as "an absolute lie and extremely defamatory and damaging".

    She is a councillor at both county and district level.

    Osborn claimed that his account had been hacked, but the judge dismissed this and found him guilty of the charge.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cr7p450kejro

    Reform continuing to attract high quality people I see.
    The LDs suspended a councillor for antisemitic remarks only a matter of days ago. All parties have tainted representatives
    They do, the question is which has the most and how do they treat them.
    I am, in no way, supportive of Reform. Any new party achieving large numbers of novice councilors will almost inevitably not have robust enough vetting procedures. Older parties have had decades to put those in place.

    Reform has got to weed out those with dodgy track records more effectively and efficiently.

    Any new party has a steep learning curve. But the quality of council candidates has been dropping for a long time. So it will be an issue for all parties for the foreseeable future.
    But mainly Reform.
    The same would happen with any new insurgent party. When you grow that quickly, things will be rocky to start with. So yes, Reform has a problem. But the same is true to a certain extent for the Greens. And the Green Party is the only one where candidates were arrested during the recent campaign as far as I can recall
    That's true about fast rising new parties and fair point on the Greens. But it's pretty undeniable that Reform has the problem in spades because of the kind of gamey bigoted vibe it has. It's a magnet for chancers and unsavouries.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,424
    Foxy said:

    On a lighter note, Doncaster Reform are taking the threat of illegal aliens very seriously:

    BBC News - Reform UK councillor calls for airport 'UFO safety committee' - BBC News
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/czd204pd36mo?app-referrer=deep-link
    Has Leon and that councillor ever been seen together in the same room?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,424
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    A council has confirmed there will be a by-election after a Reform UK councillor who posted a "defamatory" social media message about a Conservative candidate was found guilty of breaking electoral law.

    Andy Osborn, 74, was chairman of the North East Cambridgeshire Reform Party in April 2025, when he posted the message.

    He was convicted of making or publishing a false statement under the Representation of the People Act 1983 at Westminster Magistrates' Court last month.

    Cambridgeshire County Council said Osborn, who represented Roman Bank and Peckover, "has not lodged an appeal in time, therefore, he is no longer a county councillor".

    Osborn's court hearing was told he wrote on Facebook in April 2025: "Samantha Hoy worked in the care industry but allegedly was sacked for fraud no wonder Wisbech is in such a state. Reform UK will fix it."

    Hoy, who works in the care industry and has never been sacked or faced fraud allegations, later responded online, describing the claims as "an absolute lie and extremely defamatory and damaging".

    She is a councillor at both county and district level.

    Osborn claimed that his account had been hacked, but the judge dismissed this and found him guilty of the charge.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cr7p450kejro

    Reform continuing to attract high quality people I see.
    The LDs suspended a councillor for antisemitic remarks only a matter of days ago. All parties have tainted representatives
    They do, the question is which has the most and how do they treat them.
    I am, in no way, supportive of Reform. Any new party achieving large numbers of novice councilors will almost inevitably not have robust enough vetting procedures. Older parties have had decades to put those in place.

    Reform has got to weed out those with dodgy track records more effectively and efficiently.

    Any new party has a steep learning curve. But the quality of council candidates has been dropping for a long time. So it will be an issue for all parties for the foreseeable future.
    But mainly Reform.
    The same would happen with any new insurgent party. When you grow that quickly, things will be rocky to start with. So yes, Reform has a problem. But the same is true to a certain extent for the Greens. And the Green Party is the only one where candidates were arrested during the recent campaign as far as I can recall
    That's true about fast rising new parties and fair point on the Greens. But it's pretty undeniable that Reform has the problem in spades because of the kind of gamey bigoted vibe it has. It's a magnet for chancers and unsavouries.
    Plus it sucked in a lot of people who were essentially armchair or keyboard politicians and had no real appreciation of what the work and life of an elected representative is really like.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 5,444

    Foxy said:

    On a lighter note, Doncaster Reform are taking the threat of illegal aliens very seriously:

    BBC News - Reform UK councillor calls for airport 'UFO safety committee' - BBC News
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/czd204pd36mo?app-referrer=deep-link
    So when they said they don’t like illegal aliens, they actually meant they don’t like illegal aliens.
    Opens the question of whether they've ever met one or whether it's just prejudice.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 5,207
    Cyclefree said:

    Nothing would better exemplify Labour's contempt for the voters than foisting on us as PM someone the voters rejected 11 years ago.

    Your contempt for Ed Miliband is pretty clear. I don't think you are one of Labour's target voters though.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,488
    Cyclefree said:

    Nothing would better exemplify Labour's contempt for the voters than foisting on us as PM someone the voters rejected 11 years ago.

    Except possibly foisting the man who came fourth to him via a stitched up by election.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 26,261

    Sandpit said:

    I don't know about others but I'm seeing some of the details from the latest report on the October 7 atrocities on my social media. I can't say I want to read it all in detail but it comes across as the most disgusting, depraved, sadistic, purposefully cruel thing I've ever seen. Someone like Sean F will know more with regard to behaviour in other wars and how rare it is but let us reflect on two and a half years of protest on our streets by people who it is hard to imagine ever considering any of that and many would probably deny it happened. We shouldn't hide our anger about what has happened to this country.

    I don't think the sadistic acts perpetrated by Hamas on October 7th are that unusual. British forces fighting the Indian Mutiny in 1857 did horrific things, and Russian forces in Ukraine also.

    What arguably sets the events of October 7th apart is that atrocities were not committed following a battle to take territory. The atrocities on October 7th were the entire purpose of the attacks. They were the beginning and end of the Hamas strategy.
    The Russians certainly committed horrific rape and torture. But the bodily mutilation? And of course the cruelty of sending the videos to the relatives so they could see what was happening to their loved ones. I suppose that's only been a modern phenomenon.
    People support Israel out on the streets of Britain despite the IDF doing this, whilst the Israeli government doesn't prosecute the guilty parties and passes Apartheid like laws.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/11/opinion/israel-palestinians-sexual-violence.html
    Good to see the NY Times using Hamas terrorists as their sources. Again.

    https://x.com/danfriedman81/status/2054376055209701519

    The New York Times has been repeatedly tricked by Palestinian terrorists into publishing false stories that end up requiring major corrections or “editor’s notes.”

    Perhaps they were just trying to get in ahead of the Oct7 report of what Hamas were doing.
    I knew either you or Frank Booth would do that.

    The nine Israeli soldiers suspected of the abuse were to appear before a military court Tuesday. Israelis have been rattled by the events, which have highlighted the deep political divisions in the country.

    A member of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party, speaking Monday at a meeting of lawmakers, justified the rape and abuse of Palestinian prisoners, shouting angrily at colleagues questioning the alleged behavior that anything was legitimate to do to "terrorists" in custody.

    Lawmaker Hanoch Milwidsky was asked as he defended the alleged abuse whether it was legitimate, "to insert a stick into a person's rectum?"

    "Yes!" he shouted in reply to his fellow parliamentarian. "If he is a Nukhba [Hamas militant], everything is legitimate to do! Everything!"


    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israel-hamas-war-idf-palestinian-prisoner-alleged-rape-sde-teinman-abuse-protest/
    From your own quote - "The nine Israeli soldiers suspected of the abuse were to appear before a military court Tuesday."

    As they should be. And punished if guilty.

    Now, how many of those who committed atrocities on October 7 have been brought before courts?
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 4,847
    Scott_xP said:

    @GuidoFawkes

    ANDY BURNHAM will try to return to the Commons by taking Afzal Khan’s Manchester Rusholme seat.

    Khan has previously denied he would give up the seat.

    [Insert Shatner KHAAAAAAAAANNNNNNN!! gif here]
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,375

    PJH said:

    kle4 said:

    nico67 said:

    OMG IT IS HAPPENING

    Could Ed Miliband succeed Keir Starmer?

    Senior figures on the soft left say Angela Rayner just isn't up to it. There are concerns she would be a 'complete liability' - and that's before you get to the outstanding HMRC inquiry

    Andy Burnham is struggling to find a seat. And even if he finds a seat, secures NEC approval and manages to win it - none of which is a given - he wouldn't be in Westminster for months

    We reported today that Miliband has explicitly told Cabinet colleagues that he would be prepared to stand if Streeting triggered a contest. This was denied by those close to Miliband

    But ministers are today saying that it will have to be him if Streeting goes over the top. The soft-left can only have one candidate, and at the moment he is the logical choice...


    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2054552677300744273

    So the soft left want to put in place a leader who has already been rejected by the country ! They’re insane . Why don’t they just collapse the government so we can dispense with the 3 years of Labour MPs pretending he can win an election and go right to the bit where Reform take over !
    It was more than a decade ago, that's fine for a second chance.

    Bad idea though.
    And the alternative was David Cameron.

    In 2028/9 the alternative will be Farage or Polanski.
    And Miliband was up against a falsely positive view of Cameron - who was flattered by being forced to be in a coalition with the LDs who (with hindsight) significantly restricted the Conservatives' ability to do bonkers stuff, as subsequent events have shown.
    What really did for Miliband was Scotland. He gained seats from both Tories and Lib Dems elsewhere.
    You think this time round Ed is the man to win back Wales for Labour?

    Really?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 22,860
    IanB2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    A council has confirmed there will be a by-election after a Reform UK councillor who posted a "defamatory" social media message about a Conservative candidate was found guilty of breaking electoral law.

    Andy Osborn, 74, was chairman of the North East Cambridgeshire Reform Party in April 2025, when he posted the message.

    He was convicted of making or publishing a false statement under the Representation of the People Act 1983 at Westminster Magistrates' Court last month.

    Cambridgeshire County Council said Osborn, who represented Roman Bank and Peckover, "has not lodged an appeal in time, therefore, he is no longer a county councillor".

    Osborn's court hearing was told he wrote on Facebook in April 2025: "Samantha Hoy worked in the care industry but allegedly was sacked for fraud no wonder Wisbech is in such a state. Reform UK will fix it."

    Hoy, who works in the care industry and has never been sacked or faced fraud allegations, later responded online, describing the claims as "an absolute lie and extremely defamatory and damaging".

    She is a councillor at both county and district level.

    Osborn claimed that his account had been hacked, but the judge dismissed this and found him guilty of the charge.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cr7p450kejro

    Reform continuing to attract high quality people I see.
    The LDs suspended a councillor for antisemitic remarks only a matter of days ago. All parties have tainted representatives
    They do, the question is which has the most and how do they treat them.
    I am, in no way, supportive of Reform. Any new party achieving large numbers of novice councilors will almost inevitably not have robust enough vetting procedures. Older parties have had decades to put those in place.

    Reform has got to weed out those with dodgy track records more effectively and efficiently.

    Any new party has a steep learning curve. But the quality of council candidates has been dropping for a long time. So it will be an issue for all parties for the foreseeable future.
    But mainly Reform.
    The same would happen with any new insurgent party. When you grow that quickly, things will be rocky to start with. So yes, Reform has a problem. But the same is true to a certain extent for the Greens. And the Green Party is the only one where candidates were arrested during the recent campaign as far as I can recall
    That's true about fast rising new parties and fair point on the Greens. But it's pretty undeniable that Reform has the problem in spades because of the kind of gamey bigoted vibe it has. It's a magnet for chancers and unsavouries.
    Plus it sucked in a lot of people who were essentially armchair or keyboard politicians and had no real appreciation of what the work and life of an elected representative is really like.
    ... or even what life in their new wards (as opposed to what is seen through the distorting window of Social Media) is like. Which is "a bit grotty, could grumble a bit, I suppose."
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,791
    edited May 13
    dixiedean said:

    Willing to assert Burnham will hold Rusholme pretty comfortably should it come to pass.

    And the air will hang heavy like a dulling wine.

    Is his faith in love still devout?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,126
    Roger said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Geri Scott
    @Geri_E_L_Scott

    Lots of discussion about which seat Andy Burnham has apparently secured for his route back to Westminster but I'm told it *is* Manchester Rusholme, currently held by Afzal Khan.

    As I understand it Khan is prepared to step down but will not make a final decision until after Wes Streeting launches his expected leadership bid.
    ...............................................................................................................................................................................................
    Winning a by-election in the constituency would not be straightforward for Burnham, though. The Greens came in second place in Khan’s seat at the general election and have since surged in the polls,and at last week’s local election comfortably won every ward in the seat – picking up 11,800 votes in the area to Labour’s 6,900 votes."

    https://x.com/Geri_E_L_Scott/status/2054624331754553582

    The question is will the NEC allow Burnham to resign from mayor and virtually hand the role to reform ?
    There's no way Manchester will vote Reform for Mayor or anthing else.
    I think you are very wrong - just look at thursdays results
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,375

    Cyclefree said:

    Nothing would better exemplify Labour's contempt for the voters than foisting on us as PM someone the voters rejected 11 years ago.

    Your contempt for Ed Miliband is pretty clear. I don't think you are one of Labour's target voters though.
    Who do you think the target voters are who will go "Ed Miliband? Yeah, I'll give that a go?"

    Good luck in finding them both.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,126

    eek said:

    MattW said:

    At what point does Andy Burnham have to stand down as Mayor of GM?

    As soon as he’s a candidate
    Does he? What happens when he loses?
    Maybe everyone laughs !!!!!
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,493

    Cyclefree said:

    Nothing would better exemplify Labour's contempt for the voters than foisting on us as PM someone the voters rejected 11 years ago.

    Your contempt for Ed Miliband is pretty clear. I don't think you are one of Labour's target voters though.
    Attlee, Heath, Wilson all lost elections, then tried again and won.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,424
    nico67 said:

    scampi25 said:

    It won't happen but imo the country deserves a GE after the shambles of the past few weeks. It's been disgraceful and there are zero signs of a resolution that can make things better. Meanwhile the country is a complete laughing stock all over the world. It's shameful.

    We’re catching onto Italy which used to change leaders almost every year ! I admit it’s been a shambles and utterly self-indulgent at a time when there’s an economic storm coming . There is an issue though that I’m beginning to think the UK is becoming ungovernable.

    Public expectation outweighs what can be delivered, politicians keep lying about what’s needed.

    I wouldn’t go as far as saying the country is a laughing stock , I’m still very grateful to live here . For all its faults the UK still has a lot going for it . And it certainly deserves better in terms of the quality of its politicians .
    Italy under Meloni appeared to be kicking that habit, at least until her attempt at cosying up to Trump backfired now he’s waging trade war on Europe and actual war around the world. Whether her attempt to reverse ferret will succeed, time will tell.
  • MelonBMelonB Posts: 17,363

    Cyclefree said:

    Nothing would better exemplify Labour's contempt for the voters than foisting on us as PM someone the voters rejected 11 years ago.

    Your contempt for Ed Miliband is pretty clear. I don't think you are one of Labour's target voters though.
    Who do you think the target voters are who will go "Ed Miliband? Yeah, I'll give that a go?"

    Good luck in finding them both.
    The lost Green voters. It’s probably not an election winning strategy but it could well leave him with a higher floor than Starmer.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,566

    NEW THREAD

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,488

    Roger said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Geri Scott
    @Geri_E_L_Scott

    Lots of discussion about which seat Andy Burnham has apparently secured for his route back to Westminster but I'm told it *is* Manchester Rusholme, currently held by Afzal Khan.

    As I understand it Khan is prepared to step down but will not make a final decision until after Wes Streeting launches his expected leadership bid.
    ...............................................................................................................................................................................................
    Winning a by-election in the constituency would not be straightforward for Burnham, though. The Greens came in second place in Khan’s seat at the general election and have since surged in the polls,and at last week’s local election comfortably won every ward in the seat – picking up 11,800 votes in the area to Labour’s 6,900 votes."

    https://x.com/Geri_E_L_Scott/status/2054624331754553582

    The question is will the NEC allow Burnham to resign from mayor and virtually hand the role to reform ?
    There's no way Manchester will vote Reform for Mayor or anthing else.
    I think you are very wrong - just look at thursdays results
    Roger? Wrong?

    Say it ain't so...
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,493
    edited May 13

    Cyclefree said:

    Nothing would better exemplify Labour's contempt for the voters than foisting on us as PM someone the voters rejected 11 years ago.

    Your contempt for Ed Miliband is pretty clear. I don't think you are one of Labour's target voters though.
    Who do you think the target voters are who will go "Ed Miliband? Yeah, I'll give that a go?"

    Good luck in finding them both.
    Green voters. Probably 2024 Lab voters who are currently saying 'don't know' in the opinion polls, as well. The environment Ed lost in and the opponent he faced was very different from now. Many of the people who rejected him in favour of the 2015 centrist Tory party aren't Faragists.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 43,511
    @ashcowburn

    Labour MP Afzal Khan on reports he will stand down to allow Andy Burnham to run: “At the last General Election, the people of Manchester Rusholme put their trust in me to represent them to Parliament, and that is the job I am focused on doing.”
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,488

    Cyclefree said:

    Nothing would better exemplify Labour's contempt for the voters than foisting on us as PM someone the voters rejected 11 years ago.

    Your contempt for Ed Miliband is pretty clear. I don't think you are one of Labour's target voters though.
    Attlee, Heath, Wilson all lost elections, then tried again and won.
    Slightly misleading.

    Attlee was only acting leader at the time of the 1935 election and most people were impressed at his performance - trebling the number of Labour MPs mere weeks after a catastrophic conference.

    Wilson only lost on his third attempt, so was a proven winner.

    Heath was fortunate in the lack of alternatives and a reluctance among the Tories to sack their first elected leader less than a year after electing him. Had he lost in 1970 he would have been out (as he was in 1975).
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,424

    Roger said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Geri Scott
    @Geri_E_L_Scott

    Lots of discussion about which seat Andy Burnham has apparently secured for his route back to Westminster but I'm told it *is* Manchester Rusholme, currently held by Afzal Khan.

    As I understand it Khan is prepared to step down but will not make a final decision until after Wes Streeting launches his expected leadership bid.
    ...............................................................................................................................................................................................
    Winning a by-election in the constituency would not be straightforward for Burnham, though. The Greens came in second place in Khan’s seat at the general election and have since surged in the polls,and at last week’s local election comfortably won every ward in the seat – picking up 11,800 votes in the area to Labour’s 6,900 votes."

    https://x.com/Geri_E_L_Scott/status/2054624331754553582

    The question is will the NEC allow Burnham to resign from mayor and virtually hand the role to reform ?
    There's no way Manchester will vote Reform for Mayor or anthing else.
    I think you are very wrong - just look at thursdays results
    I suspect Labours results were worse in the NW because many Labour voters there took the blocking of Burnham as a snub to their region.
  • Herner_WerzogHerner_Werzog Posts: 16
    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Nothing would better exemplify Labour's contempt for the voters than foisting on us as PM someone the voters rejected 11 years ago.

    Your contempt for Ed Miliband is pretty clear. I don't think you are one of Labour's target voters though.
    Attlee, Heath, Wilson all lost elections, then tried again and won.
    Slightly misleading.

    Attlee was only acting leader at the time of the 1935 election and most people were impressed at his performance - trebling the number of Labour MPs mere weeks after a catastrophic conference.

    Wilson only lost on his third attempt, so was a proven winner.

    Heath was fortunate in the lack of alternatives and a reluctance among the Tories to sack their first elected leader less than a year after electing him. Had he lost in 1970 he would have been out (as he was in 1975).
    And none of these became prime ministers by taking over in mid-term. All takeover PMs face a question of legitimacy. Ed's 2010 electoral defeat, subsequent resignation, and admissions of failure would all be thrown back at him.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,375
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Freshwater Strategy

    ➡️Ref: 29% (+3)
    🔵Con: 20% (+1)
    🔴Lab: 18% (-4)
    🟠Lib: 14% (+1)
    🟢Grn: 12% (-3)

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/2054597003997258169

    Terrible poll for the Greens, collapsed to 5th behind the LDs. Not great for Labour either as the Tories overtake them and Reform extend their lead
    That previous poll with Labour only 4% behind Reform looked seriously wayward....
  • MattWMattW Posts: 33,487

    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    A council has confirmed there will be a by-election after a Reform UK councillor who posted a "defamatory" social media message about a Conservative candidate was found guilty of breaking electoral law.

    Andy Osborn, 74, was chairman of the North East Cambridgeshire Reform Party in April 2025, when he posted the message.

    He was convicted of making or publishing a false statement under the Representation of the People Act 1983 at Westminster Magistrates' Court last month.

    Cambridgeshire County Council said Osborn, who represented Roman Bank and Peckover, "has not lodged an appeal in time, therefore, he is no longer a county councillor".

    Osborn's court hearing was told he wrote on Facebook in April 2025: "Samantha Hoy worked in the care industry but allegedly was sacked for fraud no wonder Wisbech is in such a state. Reform UK will fix it."

    Hoy, who works in the care industry and has never been sacked or faced fraud allegations, later responded online, describing the claims as "an absolute lie and extremely defamatory and damaging".

    She is a councillor at both county and district level.

    Osborn claimed that his account had been hacked, but the judge dismissed this and found him guilty of the charge.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cr7p450kejro

    Reform continuing to attract high quality people I see.
    The LDs suspended a councillor for antisemitic remarks only a matter of days ago. All parties have tainted representatives
    They do, the question is which has the most and how do they treat them.
    I am, in no way, supportive of Reform. Any new party achieving large numbers of novice councilors will almost inevitably not have robust enough vetting procedures. Older parties have had decades to put those in place.

    Reform has got to weed out those with dodgy track records more effectively and efficiently.

    Any new party has a steep learning curve. But the quality of council candidates has been dropping for a long time. So it will be an issue for all parties for the foreseeable future.
    But mainly Reform.
    The same would happen with any new insurgent party. When you grow that quickly, things will be rocky to start with. So yes, Reform has a problem. But the same is true to a certain extent for the Greens. And the Green Party is the only one where candidates were arrested during the recent campaign as far as I can recall
    One Reform councillor was arrested, and found guilty, following last year’s campaign: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cr7p450kejro
    There have been a couple of others from last year (eg the wife abuser in Kent who ended up with a year in prison), but none during election campaigns iirc.

    The Reform equivalent of the Green Council candidates arrested would imo be for behaviour during anti-immigrant demonstrations, or offences whilst hanging flags and so on; I am now aware of any of those.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 5,444
    MattW said:

    eek said:

    MattW said:

    At what point does Andy Burnham have to stand down as Mayor of GM?

    As soon as he’s a candidate
    If he were me, he would not take it on at that risk / reward level.

    But he is not me.
    Suppose Mr Burnham wins whatever by-election is arranged. He then is eligible to stand as a candidate in the election for PM/party leader. If he lost that election, would he still be interested in being an MP?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,743

    PJH said:

    kle4 said:

    nico67 said:

    OMG IT IS HAPPENING

    Could Ed Miliband succeed Keir Starmer?

    Senior figures on the soft left say Angela Rayner just isn't up to it. There are concerns she would be a 'complete liability' - and that's before you get to the outstanding HMRC inquiry

    Andy Burnham is struggling to find a seat. And even if he finds a seat, secures NEC approval and manages to win it - none of which is a given - he wouldn't be in Westminster for months

    We reported today that Miliband has explicitly told Cabinet colleagues that he would be prepared to stand if Streeting triggered a contest. This was denied by those close to Miliband

    But ministers are today saying that it will have to be him if Streeting goes over the top. The soft-left can only have one candidate, and at the moment he is the logical choice...


    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2054552677300744273

    So the soft left want to put in place a leader who has already been rejected by the country ! They’re insane . Why don’t they just collapse the government so we can dispense with the 3 years of Labour MPs pretending he can win an election and go right to the bit where Reform take over !
    It was more than a decade ago, that's fine for a second chance.

    Bad idea though.
    And the alternative was David Cameron.

    In 2028/9 the alternative will be Farage or Polanski.
    And Miliband was up against a falsely positive view of Cameron - who was flattered by being forced to be in a coalition with the LDs who (with hindsight) significantly restricted the Conservatives' ability to do bonkers stuff, as subsequent events have shown.
    What really did for Miliband was Scotland. He gained seats from both Tories and Lib Dems elsewhere.
    You think this time round Ed is the man to win back Wales for Labour?

    Really?
    If I were, god forbid, a RefConner, the only candidate from the current bunch of no hopers that would worry me would be Burnham*.

    * Personally speaking I can't bear Burnham.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 33,487
    MattW said:

    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    A council has confirmed there will be a by-election after a Reform UK councillor who posted a "defamatory" social media message about a Conservative candidate was found guilty of breaking electoral law.

    Andy Osborn, 74, was chairman of the North East Cambridgeshire Reform Party in April 2025, when he posted the message.

    He was convicted of making or publishing a false statement under the Representation of the People Act 1983 at Westminster Magistrates' Court last month.

    Cambridgeshire County Council said Osborn, who represented Roman Bank and Peckover, "has not lodged an appeal in time, therefore, he is no longer a county councillor".

    Osborn's court hearing was told he wrote on Facebook in April 2025: "Samantha Hoy worked in the care industry but allegedly was sacked for fraud no wonder Wisbech is in such a state. Reform UK will fix it."

    Hoy, who works in the care industry and has never been sacked or faced fraud allegations, later responded online, describing the claims as "an absolute lie and extremely defamatory and damaging".

    She is a councillor at both county and district level.

    Osborn claimed that his account had been hacked, but the judge dismissed this and found him guilty of the charge.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cr7p450kejro

    Reform continuing to attract high quality people I see.
    The LDs suspended a councillor for antisemitic remarks only a matter of days ago. All parties have tainted representatives
    They do, the question is which has the most and how do they treat them.
    I am, in no way, supportive of Reform. Any new party achieving large numbers of novice councilors will almost inevitably not have robust enough vetting procedures. Older parties have had decades to put those in place.

    Reform has got to weed out those with dodgy track records more effectively and efficiently.

    Any new party has a steep learning curve. But the quality of council candidates has been dropping for a long time. So it will be an issue for all parties for the foreseeable future.
    But mainly Reform.
    The same would happen with any new insurgent party. When you grow that quickly, things will be rocky to start with. So yes, Reform has a problem. But the same is true to a certain extent for the Greens. And the Green Party is the only one where candidates were arrested during the recent campaign as far as I can recall
    One Reform councillor was arrested, and found guilty, following last year’s campaign: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cr7p450kejro
    There have been a couple of others from last year (eg the wife abuser in Kent who ended up with a year in prison), but none during election campaigns iirc.

    The Reform equivalent of the Green Council candidates arrested would imo be for behaviour during anti-immigrant demonstrations, or offences whilst hanging flags and so on; I am now aware of any of those.
    Sorry. My KB activated it's typo facility.

    That should be "not aware".
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,789
    Cyclefree said:

    Nothing would better exemplify Labour's contempt for the voters than foisting on us as PM someone the voters rejected 11 years ago.

    I admit that the general public had a better gut instinct on Ed M than I did in 2015. I also think he might have got carried away with milifandom.

    He's claimed more than once that he regrets not being bolder when he was Labour leader. Make of that what you will.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 66,572

    I don't know about others but I'm seeing some of the details from the latest report on the October 7 atrocities on my social media. I can't say I want to read it all in detail but it comes across as the most disgusting, depraved, sadistic, purposefully cruel thing I've ever seen. Someone like Sean F will know more with regard to behaviour in other wars and how rare it is but let us reflect on two and a half years of protest on our streets by people who it is hard to imagine ever considering any of that and many would probably deny it happened. We shouldn't hide our anger about what has happened to this country.

    I watched a video of what happened to one of the Israeli civilians only the day before yesterday.

    I wished I hadn't. It hasn't escaped me since.
This discussion has been closed.