50% prob Tomorrow, Streeting will announce he is standing. If so, Rayner will also stand to keep the seat warm for Burnham's return to the Commons (that's the deal) Starmer will also contest. Winner will be Rayner, 50%; Starmer 40%; Streeting 10%.
50% prob. No-one will stand until Burnham is back in the Commons and stands. Only Starmer stands against him. Winner will be Burnham 90%: Starmer 10%.
It's all very well being King of the North or able to win in Ilford, but it's the huge tracts of suburbia across the county where elections are won and lost.
Who can appeal to them?
That was an insightful piece that someone posted on the previous thread, that removing SKS only removes the problem of SKS being leader. It doesn't change any of the underlying issues.
Indeed. Do we know what Burnham, Streeting, Rayner, or anyone else who thinks they are a contender would actually do? What new policies would be pursued?
Last month I spoke to a former Treasury SPAD, the brutal reality is that the government, this one or the next one needs to find £200 billion a year in tax revenues to become popular.
This illustrates the problem. British firms being flogged off to foreigners so that future profits, dividends and taxes (and even government subsidies) are sent abroad rather than supporting our economy. And all nodded through by an Establishment that can't tell the difference between genuine foreign investment and asset stripping.
Well if we don’t value these businesses others will
Also see poor valuations on the LSE compared to other indexes and also the lack of listings on our stock exchange with multiple causes.
50% prob Tomorrow, Streeting will announce he is standing. If so, Rayner will also stand to keep the seat warm for Burnham's return to the Commons (that's the deal) Starmer will also contest. Winner will be Rayner, 50%; Starmer 40%; Streeting 10%.
50% prob. No-one will stand until Burnham is back in the Commons and stands. Only Starmer stands against him. Winner will be Burnham 90%: Starmer 10%.
The other 25% is Starmer staying until next election when next PM includes Farage, Badenoch as well as the above three.
Rayner standing as a placeholder for Burnham ??? I don't think she can do that even if she wants to.
Why not? She might even announce it in advance to increase her chances.
If the Labour Party are now suggesting stop gap leaders/PMs purely to be in place to tread water while some bloke finds a seat he can win in a by-election, they will look even more self indulgent then they do already.
It's all very well being King of the North or able to win in Ilford, but it's the huge tracts of suburbia across the county where elections are won and lost.
Who can appeal to them?
That was an insightful piece that someone posted on the previous thread, that removing SKS only removes the problem of SKS being leader. It doesn't change any of the underlying issues.
Indeed. Do we know what Burnham, Streeting, Rayner, or anyone else who thinks they are a contender would actually do? What new policies would be pursued?
Last month I spoke to a former Treasury SPAD, the brutal reality is that the government, this one or the next one needs to find £200 billion a year in tax revenues to become popular.
This illustrates the problem. British firms being flogged off to foreigners so that future profits, dividends and taxes (and even government subsidies) are sent abroad rather than supporting our economy. And all nodded through by an Establishment that can't tell the difference between genuine foreign investment and asset stripping.
Well if we don’t value these businesses others will
Also see poor valuations on the LSE compared to other indexes and also the lack of listings on our stock exchange with multiple causes.
Just to relate all this to the real world - I've just overheard a conversation between two youngsters in the lift at work (remember, public sector job, Greater Manchester): Youth A: You know Andy Burnham? Youth B: Who's that?
Look I know it's a time-honoured custom but what's the flipping point in giving a UK-wide figure for the SNP?
Unless you poll only England, instead of Britain, then that small percentage of SNP voters will always be there, but the poll isn't constructed in such a way that you can confidently give the Scottish percentages, so the only valid way to present the data is with the SNP score as a small percentage of the British whole.
It's simply presenting the data as it is. I guess you could roll it to into a larger percentage for others, but that then naturally begs the question, "what's that others then?" so you may as well break it out in the first place.
Look I know it's a time-honoured custom but what's the flipping point in giving a UK-wide figure for the SNP?
The methodology for calculating SNP support is not right, the SNP should never be showing 2% in a GB poll.
3% (+1) implies the previous 2% has an upper bound of 2.5% and so is a maximum of Scottish support at (Multiply through by 8.2) 20.5% - which is plainly wrong.
It's all very well being King of the North or able to win in Ilford, but it's the huge tracts of suburbia across the county where elections are won and lost.
Who can appeal to them?
That was an insightful piece that someone posted on the previous thread, that removing SKS only removes the problem of SKS being leader. It doesn't change any of the underlying issues.
Indeed. Do we know what Burnham, Streeting, Rayner, or anyone else who thinks they are a contender would actually do? What new policies would be pursued?
Last month I spoke to a former Treasury SPAD, the brutal reality is that the government, this one or the next one needs to find £200 billion a year in tax revenues to become popular.
Yet there's no surer way to be unpopular that to extract it via taxes or debt (–> higher interest rates)
Slap a one-off 25% windfall tax on the UK's 500 richest people. That would net £200bn straight away.
It’s per year.
So even if they don’t leave before your windfall tax and meekly bring all their assets onshore to be taxed, they won’t be there for year 2.
So now you have a capital flight of Argentinian proportions, the deficit. And probably a small problem with the next bond auction.
Because if you expropriating one bunch, everyone will figure they are next.
They could always try targetting some actual growth 🤞
Targeting growth is like “I will start a targeted gym and sport program every day. Within 4 years I will be doing 2000m on a rowing erg in 6 minutes*”
Lots of people say that. The number who do that is somewhat smaller
*if you did that, you would recruited for the UK Olympic rowing team.
Yes, like me targetting being good and cutting down on my eating and drinking to lose a few pounds, I’d guess 😃
There are people who do manage to do that, and hopefully they would be the sort of people we'd choose to lead the country. Public accountability is generally thought to be important in sticking to goals, which is why parties should state clearly what they hope to achieve in an election manifesto, and why a strong opposition is valuable.
If Streeting has the numbers he will launch a leadership challenge tomorrow then. If he hasn't and still doesn't have the 80 Labour MPs to nominate him to challenge Starmer, then Starmer should sack him on Friday from the Cabinet if Streeting hasn't declared his loyalty to the PM by then.
Given Burnham still does not have an MP willing to stand down for him and is still not even an NEC approved Labour parliamentary candidate, he is not relevant at the moment
50% prob Tomorrow, Streeting will announce he is standing. If so, Rayner will also stand to keep the seat warm for Burnham's return to the Commons (that's the deal) Starmer will also contest. Winner will be Rayner, 50%; Starmer 40%; Streeting 10%.
50% prob. No-one will stand until Burnham is back in the Commons and stands. Only Starmer stands against him. Winner will be Burnham 90%: Starmer 10%.
The other 25% is Starmer staying until next election when next PM includes Farage, Badenoch as well as the above three.
Rayner standing as a placeholder for Burnham ??? I don't think she can do that even if she wants to.
Why not? She might even announce it in advance to increase her chances.
If the Labour Party are now suggesting stop gap leaders/PMs purely to be in place to tread water while some bloke finds a seat he can win in a by-election, they will look even more self indulgent then they do already.
Surely the plan would be that Burnham is in parliament to take the job before the Labour party's internal contest process is finished?
Latest EMA of polls. Labour and Tories continue neck and neck. Hint of turning points for Reform, Green and LDs - or is this just noise?
The little poll bounce that follows local election successes - which historically tends to benefit the LibDems, and sometimes the opposition party - rarely lasts more than a month or two
I've got a solution that'd displease both the left and the right. Rejoin the EU and apply to join the Euro.
Even the LDs aren't stupid enough to push that at present
The Liberal Democrats are urging the Labour government to drop their "red lines" and rejoin the EU Single Market and Customs Union to rescue the British economy.
While Keir Starmer has signaled a desire for closer ties, the Liberal Democrats argue that current plans are far too timid to address the cost-of-living crisis and the red tape currently strangling British businesses. The party plans to use the upcoming King’s Speech to push for votes that would force a much deeper relationship with our European neighbors.
“The Conservatives’ botched Brexit deal has held this country back for too long and now is the time to be far bolder on Europe, on everything from trade to defence.” Ed Davey MP
With research suggesting a closer trade deal could boost public finances by £25 billion a year, the Lib Dems are making it clear that growth depends on Europe.
“We all know the best way to deliver the economic growth that this country desperately needs: a closer relationship with Europe. Yet his reset plan is far too weak and unambitious.” Ed Davey MP
The Liberal Democrats are committed to using every opportunity in Parliament to strengthen the EU Reset Bill and ensure the UK doesn't miss out on the prosperity it deserves.
Better for Labour than yesterday's Yougov, even better for Reform than yesterday's Yougov and higher even than the 27% NEV Reform got from the local elections.
Bad poll for the third placed Tories and 5th placed Greens who both are down 1%. Good poll for the LDs who get their usual post local elections bounce and overtake the LDs for 4th
It's all very well being King of the North or able to win in Ilford, but it's the huge tracts of suburbia across the county where elections are won and lost.
Who can appeal to them?
That was an insightful piece that someone posted on the previous thread, that removing SKS only removes the problem of SKS being leader. It doesn't change any of the underlying issues.
Indeed. Do we know what Burnham, Streeting, Rayner, or anyone else who thinks they are a contender would actually do? What new policies would be pursued?
Last month I spoke to a former Treasury SPAD, the brutal reality is that the government, this one or the next one needs to find £200 billion a year in tax revenues to become popular.
This illustrates the problem. British firms being flogged off to foreigners so that future profits, dividends and taxes (and even government subsidies) are sent abroad rather than supporting our economy. And all nodded through by an Establishment that can't tell the difference between genuine foreign investment and asset stripping.
Well if we don’t value these businesses others will
Also see poor valuations on the LSE compared to other indexes and also the lack of listings on our stock exchange with multiple causes.
Uncle Mac was right...
The sale of assets is common with individuals and states when they run into financial difficulties. First, all the Georgian silver goes, and then all that nice furniture that used to be in the saloon. Then the Canalettos go.
Which he then, rightly, went on to clarify...
When I ventured the other day to criticise the system I was, I am afraid, misunderstood. As a Conservative, I am naturally in favour of returning into private ownership and private management all those means of production and distribution which are now controlled by state capitalism. I am sure they will be more efficient. What I ventured to question was the using of these huge sums as if they were income.
And any of us who have voted for any government at all since the 80s are a bit culpable in that.
It's all very well being King of the North or able to win in Ilford, but it's the huge tracts of suburbia across the county where elections are won and lost.
Who can appeal to them?
That was an insightful piece that someone posted on the previous thread, that removing SKS only removes the problem of SKS being leader. It doesn't change any of the underlying issues.
Indeed. Do we know what Burnham, Streeting, Rayner, or anyone else who thinks they are a contender would actually do? What new policies would be pursued?
Last month I spoke to a former Treasury SPAD, the brutal reality is that the government, this one or the next one needs to find £200 billion a year in tax revenues to become popular.
This illustrates the problem. British firms being flogged off to foreigners so that future profits, dividends and taxes (and even government subsidies) are sent abroad rather than supporting our economy. And all nodded through by an Establishment that can't tell the difference between genuine foreign investment and asset stripping.
Yes. And I think this very general sense of being an island cash cow for Johnny Foreigner is part of the inarticulate feeling many voters have of loss of identity.
This is part of what lies behind Reform voting. However Reform itself will split interestingly between a small powerful elite who rather like the plutocratic opportunities of cash cow Britain, some of whom live abroad, and their voters who preferred the world where Britain appeared to run Britain and also owned lots of Abroadland rather than the other way round.
Interestingly Premiership football is a sort of metaphor for all of this.
It's all very well being King of the North or able to win in Ilford, but it's the huge tracts of suburbia across the county where elections are won and lost.
Who can appeal to them?
That was an insightful piece that someone posted on the previous thread, that removing SKS only removes the problem of SKS being leader. It doesn't change any of the underlying issues.
Indeed. Do we know what Burnham, Streeting, Rayner, or anyone else who thinks they are a contender would actually do? What new policies would be pursued?
Last month I spoke to a former Treasury SPAD, the brutal reality is that the government, this one or the next one needs to find £200 billion a year in tax revenues to become popular.
This illustrates the problem. British firms being flogged off to foreigners so that future profits, dividends and taxes (and even government subsidies) are sent abroad rather than supporting our economy. And all nodded through by an Establishment that can't tell the difference between genuine foreign investment and asset stripping.
Well if we don’t value these businesses others will
Also see poor valuations on the LSE compared to other indexes and also the lack of listings on our stock exchange with multiple causes.
Better for Labour than yesterday's Yougov, even better for Reform than yesterday's Yougov and higher even than the 27% NEV Reform got from the local elections.
Bad poll for the third placed Tories and 5th placed Greens who both are down 1%. Good poll for the LDs who get their usual post local elections bounce and overtake the LDs for 4th
One thing that has become noticable in the last few days is the paucity of talent on the back benches benches. I'm not talking about leadership hopefuls either. There have been MPs claiming their 15 minutes who you wouldn't employ as a receptionist at Halfords. How were they able to get past selection panels? Polanski's latest from the world of plumbing is a rare exception.
At the last general election both Starmer's NEC and Sunak's CCHQ valued loyalty to the party leader above all in approved parliamentary candidates
I don't see Streeting vs Farage as anything other than a first round knockout. Punters will be angrily demanding their money back.
I like Wes Streeting, he absolutely socked it to striking doctors.
He's got a compelling backstory.
He gave them a big pay raise and then failed to stop the strikes. Not that impressive. What is impressive is he has managed to spin this failure as him being tough.
Frankly Labour do need someone a bit better at spin than Starmer who seems to manage to make his successes look like failure.
Latest EMA of polls. Labour and Tories continue neck and neck. Hint of turning points for Reform, Green and LDs - or is this just noise?
The little poll bounce that follows local election successes - which historically tends to benefit the LibDems, and sometimes the opposition party - rarely lasts more than a month or two
True. But this poll bounce is accompanied by an almost unprecedented, comically inept meltdown in the ruling party. So it might be different
Seriously. There will be many many people thinking “how can nigel be worse than this?” “Where is the evidence he’s worse at politics than this shower of selfish, stupid and careerist tossers?”
It's all very well being King of the North or able to win in Ilford, but it's the huge tracts of suburbia across the county where elections are won and lost.
Who can appeal to them?
Streeting's Ilford North seat IS suburbia, indeed he won it from the Tories in 2015.
Plenty of suburbs in Greater Manchester too where Burnham is elected Mayor.
Commuter towns and market towns and ex industrial and seaside towns are also just as much swing seats now as the suburbs
Better for Labour than yesterday's Yougov, even better for Reform than yesterday's Yougov and higher even than the 27% NEV Reform got from the local elections.
Bad poll for the third placed Tories and 5th placed Greens who both are down 1%. Good poll for the LDs who get their usual post local elections bounce and overtake the LDs for 4th
Latest EMA of polls. Labour and Tories continue neck and neck. Hint of turning points for Reform, Green and LDs - or is this just noise?
The little poll bounce that follows local election successes - which historically tends to benefit the LibDems, and sometimes the opposition party - rarely lasts more than a month or two
True. But this poll bounce is accompanied by an almost unprecedented, comically inept meltdown in the ruling party. So it might be different
Seriously. There will be many many people thinking “how can nigel be worse than this?” “Where is the evidence he’s worse at politics than this shower of selfish, stupid and careerist tossers?”
It goes back to "rolling the dice". If Labour don't look stable and are constantly going through the same splits and leadership issues we had from 2016-2024 then the risk factor doesn't seem as big.
The million or so Tory fools who sat on their hands in 2024 to "punish" the party thought the same. They rolled the dice rather than vote for the Tories and look at what has happened.
It's going to be up to the Tories to provide a less risky option than voting for Reform and credible on the economy vs Labour who just seem to think more tax and ignoring bond markets is a winning idea.
I've got a solution that'd displease both the left and the right. Rejoin the EU and apply to join the Euro.
Even the LDs aren't stupid enough to push that at present
The Liberal Democrats are urging the Labour government to drop their "red lines" and rejoin the EU Single Market and Customs Union to rescue the British economy.
While Keir Starmer has signaled a desire for closer ties, the Liberal Democrats argue that current plans are far too timid to address the cost-of-living crisis and the red tape currently strangling British businesses. The party plans to use the upcoming King’s Speech to push for votes that would force a much deeper relationship with our European neighbors.
“The Conservatives’ botched Brexit deal has held this country back for too long and now is the time to be far bolder on Europe, on everything from trade to defence.” Ed Davey MP
With research suggesting a closer trade deal could boost public finances by £25 billion a year, the Lib Dems are making it clear that growth depends on Europe.
“We all know the best way to deliver the economic growth that this country desperately needs: a closer relationship with Europe. Yet his reset plan is far too weak and unambitious.” Ed Davey MP
The Liberal Democrats are committed to using every opportunity in Parliament to strengthen the EU Reset Bill and ensure the UK doesn't miss out on the prosperity it deserves.
Look I know it's a time-honoured custom but what's the flipping point in giving a UK-wide figure for the SNP?
The methodology for calculating SNP support is not right, the SNP should never be showing 2% in a GB poll.
3% (+1) implies the previous 2% has an upper bound of 2.5% and so is a maximum of Scottish support at (Multiply through by 8.2) 20.5% - which is plainly wrong.
The Scottish subsample will be tiny, and so has a large confidence interval. ~20% in the subsample is not inconsistent with a true level of SNP support at around ~35%.
It's all very well being King of the North or able to win in Ilford, but it's the huge tracts of suburbia across the county where elections are won and lost.
Who can appeal to them?
That was an insightful piece that someone posted on the previous thread, that removing SKS only removes the problem of SKS being leader. It doesn't change any of the underlying issues.
Indeed. Do we know what Burnham, Streeting, Rayner, or anyone else who thinks they are a contender would actually do? What new policies would be pursued?
Last month I spoke to a former Treasury SPAD, the brutal reality is that the government, this one or the next one needs to find £200 billion a year in tax revenues to become popular.
This illustrates the problem. British firms being flogged off to foreigners so that future profits, dividends and taxes (and even government subsidies) are sent abroad rather than supporting our economy. And all nodded through by an Establishment that can't tell the difference between genuine foreign investment and asset stripping.
Yes. And I think this very general sense of being an island cash cow for Johnny Foreigner is part of the inarticulate feeling many voters have of loss of identity.
This is part of what lies behind Reform voting. However Reform itself will split interestingly between a small powerful elite who rather like the plutocratic opportunities of cash cow Britain, some of whom live abroad, and their voters who preferred the world where Britain appeared to run Britain and also owned lots of Abroadland rather than the other way round.
Interestingly Premiership football is a sort of metaphor for all of this.
Its an inevitable consequence of running a permanent trade deficit.
UK assets are sold to foreigners so that British people can have foreign holidays and imported consumer tat.
It's all very well being King of the North or able to win in Ilford, but it's the huge tracts of suburbia across the county where elections are won and lost.
Who can appeal to them?
That was an insightful piece that someone posted on the previous thread, that removing SKS only removes the problem of SKS being leader. It doesn't change any of the underlying issues.
Indeed. Do we know what Burnham, Streeting, Rayner, or anyone else who thinks they are a contender would actually do? What new policies would be pursued?
Last month I spoke to a former Treasury SPAD, the brutal reality is that the government, this one or the next one needs to find £200 billion a year in tax revenues to become popular.
This illustrates the problem. British firms being flogged off to foreigners so that future profits, dividends and taxes (and even government subsidies) are sent abroad rather than supporting our economy. And all nodded through by an Establishment that can't tell the difference between genuine foreign investment and asset stripping.
Indeed.
For the ferries to the island - which when I was a kid were run by nationalised Sealink - one company is now part-owned by a Canadian firm and partly by a UK-based private equity outfit, having been sold to them by an Australian company some years back, with what little tax they pay (the significant profits being offset by the owners' borrowing) going abroad, and the other was previously owned by a consortium of Canadian and British pension funds but has just been sold to a UK-based but Scandinavian run private equity outfit. Island Roads - which manages the roads for the council, has complex ownership arrangements that ultimately ends up with a global corporation headquartered in France; the profits they make from mending the island's roads have what little tax is paid on them processed in Luxembourg, I believe.
It's all very well being King of the North or able to win in Ilford, but it's the huge tracts of suburbia across the county where elections are won and lost.
Who can appeal to them?
That was an insightful piece that someone posted on the previous thread, that removing SKS only removes the problem of SKS being leader. It doesn't change any of the underlying issues.
Indeed. Do we know what Burnham, Streeting, Rayner, or anyone else who thinks they are a contender would actually do? What new policies would be pursued?
Last month I spoke to a former Treasury SPAD, the brutal reality is that the government, this one or the next one needs to find £200 billion a year in tax revenues to become popular.
This illustrates the problem. British firms being flogged off to foreigners so that future profits, dividends and taxes (and even government subsidies) are sent abroad rather than supporting our economy. And all nodded through by an Establishment that can't tell the difference between genuine foreign investment and asset stripping.
Well if we don’t value these businesses others will
Also see poor valuations on the LSE compared to other indexes and also the lack of listings on our stock exchange with multiple causes.
Better for Labour than yesterday's Yougov, even better for Reform than yesterday's Yougov and higher even than the 27% NEV Reform got from the local elections.
Bad poll for the third placed Tories and 5th placed Greens who both are down 1%. Good poll for the LDs who get their usual post local elections bounce and overtake the LDs for 4th
Its difficult to see Labour making a significant breakthrough until they regain their place as market leader on the left. Not too likely while they have Starmer in charge but if they choose wisely we could be adding Labour and Green votes together.
Latest EMA of polls. Labour and Tories continue neck and neck. Hint of turning points for Reform, Green and LDs - or is this just noise?
The little poll bounce that follows local election successes - which historically tends to benefit the LibDems, and sometimes the opposition party - rarely lasts more than a month or two
True. But this poll bounce is accompanied by an almost unprecedented, comically inept meltdown in the ruling party. So it might be different
Seriously. There will be many many people thinking “how can nigel be worse than this?” “Where is the evidence he’s worse at politics than this shower of selfish, stupid and careerist tossers?”
It's always a mistake to argue that things couldn't be any worse, merely revealing a failure in imagination.
It's all very well being King of the North or able to win in Ilford, but it's the huge tracts of suburbia across the county where elections are won and lost.
Who can appeal to them?
That was an insightful piece that someone posted on the previous thread, that removing SKS only removes the problem of SKS being leader. It doesn't change any of the underlying issues.
Indeed. Do we know what Burnham, Streeting, Rayner, or anyone else who thinks they are a contender would actually do? What new policies would be pursued?
Last month I spoke to a former Treasury SPAD, the brutal reality is that the government, this one or the next one needs to find £200 billion a year in tax revenues to become popular.
This illustrates the problem. British firms being flogged off to foreigners so that future profits, dividends and taxes (and even government subsidies) are sent abroad rather than supporting our economy. And all nodded through by an Establishment that can't tell the difference between genuine foreign investment and asset stripping.
It has been that way since the 1980s. Continuity Thatcherism.
Latest EMA of polls. Labour and Tories continue neck and neck. Hint of turning points for Reform, Green and LDs - or is this just noise?
The little poll bounce that follows local election successes - which historically tends to benefit the LibDems, and sometimes the opposition party - rarely lasts more than a month or two
True. But this poll bounce is accompanied by an almost unprecedented, comically inept meltdown in the ruling party. So it might be different
Seriously. There will be many many people thinking “how can nigel be worse than this?” “Where is the evidence he’s worse at politics than this shower of selfish, stupid and careerist tossers?”
I don't think people are thinking about Farage at all - which is to his benefit. When things are bad enough for the incumbent then the viewers will simply turn to the most effective means to dispose of the incumbent, and right now that's Farage. Any port in a storm.
And then, after the election, act in haste and repent at leisure, all over again.
I've got a solution that'd displease both the left and the right. Rejoin the EU and apply to join the Euro.
Snap.
If you offered me a time machine to go back to 1997 and the Tories win (and keep winning as Labour goes Left) but we join the Euro, I think I'd take that.
Better for Labour than yesterday's Yougov, even better for Reform than yesterday's Yougov and higher even than the 27% NEV Reform got from the local elections.
Bad poll for the third placed Tories and 5th placed Greens who both are down 1%. Good poll for the LDs who get their usual post local elections bounce and overtake the Greens for 4th
Its difficult to see Labour making a significant breakthrough until they regain their place as market leader on the left. Not too likely while they have Starmer in charge but if they choose wisely we could be adding Labour and Green votes together.
On this poll the Greens are fifth on just 11%, while Labour are still second on 21%. The combined Tory and LD vote meanwhile is 33%, even higher than the 30% for Reform.
So the danger for Labour is that if Rayner or Ed Miliband or even a returned Burnham replace Starmer and move Labour further towards its tax and spend comfort zone, they will lose more centrist swing voters to the Tories and LDs than they pick up leftwingers from the Greens
I've got a solution that'd displease both the left and the right. Rejoin the EU and apply to join the Euro.
Snap.
If you offered me a time machine to go back to 1997 and the Tories win (and keep winning as Labour goes Left) but we join the Euro, I think I'd take that.
And have our economic policy and interest rates dictated to by Frankfurt and Brussels not our own needs, see Greece
Look I know it's a time-honoured custom but what's the flipping point in giving a UK-wide figure for the SNP?
The cybernats become very abusive if you don't mention them.
As Dan Neidle is discovering the online Greens really are vile. Far more abusive than Reform online were when he exposed Tice or online labour were over Saint Ange.
Better for Labour than yesterday's Yougov, even better for Reform than yesterday's Yougov and higher even than the 27% NEV Reform got from the local elections.
Bad poll for the third placed Tories and 5th placed Greens who both are down 1%. Good poll for the LDs who get their usual post local elections bounce and overtake the LDs for 4th
Its difficult to see Labour making a significant breakthrough until they regain their place as market leader on the left. Not too likely while they have Starmer in charge but if they choose wisely we could be adding Labour and Green votes together.
And lose a whole load of votes to the centre and right
Labour's problem is they are losing to both the right and left and any move to the left the bond markets will act
Interesting public opinion has moved firmly away from taxing and spending
Latest EMA of polls. Labour and Tories continue neck and neck. Hint of turning points for Reform, Green and LDs - or is this just noise?
The little poll bounce that follows local election successes - which historically tends to benefit the LibDems, and sometimes the opposition party - rarely lasts more than a month or two
True. But this poll bounce is accompanied by an almost unprecedented, comically inept meltdown in the ruling party. So it might be different
Seriously. There will be many many people thinking “how can nigel be worse than this?” “Where is the evidence he’s worse at politics than this shower of selfish, stupid and careerist tossers?”
It’s more likely that whatever remains of the 2024 Labour vote will join the rest in the “DK/won’t vote” column, thereby increasing Reform’s vote share.
Differential turnout is the biggest driver of shifts, both in the actual election results and the polling.
Latest EMA of polls. Labour and Tories continue neck and neck. Hint of turning points for Reform, Green and LDs - or is this just noise?
The little poll bounce that follows local election successes - which historically tends to benefit the LibDems, and sometimes the opposition party - rarely lasts more than a month or two
True. But this poll bounce is accompanied by an almost unprecedented, comically inept meltdown in the ruling party. So it might be different
Seriously. There will be many many people thinking “how can nigel be worse than this?” “Where is the evidence he’s worse at politics than this shower of selfish, stupid and careerist tossers?”
I don't think people are thinking about Farage at all - which is to his benefit. When things are bad enough for the incumbent then the viewers will simply turn to the most effective means to dispose of the incumbent, and right now that's Farage. Any port in a storm.
And then, after the election, act in haste and repent at leisure, all over again.
Farage ‘s track record on his political relationships does not inspire confidence.
I've got a solution that'd displease both the left and the right. Rejoin the EU and apply to join the Euro.
Snap.
If you offered me a time machine to go back to 1997 and the Tories win (and keep winning as Labour goes Left) but we join the Euro, I think I'd take that.
It's all very well being King of the North or able to win in Ilford, but it's the huge tracts of suburbia across the county where elections are won and lost.
Who can appeal to them?
That was an insightful piece that someone posted on the previous thread, that removing SKS only removes the problem of SKS being leader. It doesn't change any of the underlying issues.
Indeed. Do we know what Burnham, Streeting, Rayner, or anyone else who thinks they are a contender would actually do? What new policies would be pursued?
Last month I spoke to a former Treasury SPAD, the brutal reality is that the government, this one or the next one needs to find £200 billion a year in tax revenues to become popular.
This illustrates the problem. British firms being flogged off to foreigners so that future profits, dividends and taxes (and even government subsidies) are sent abroad rather than supporting our economy. And all nodded through by an Establishment that can't tell the difference between genuine foreign investment and asset stripping.
Well if we don’t value these businesses others will
Also see poor valuations on the LSE compared to other indexes and also the lack of listings on our stock exchange with multiple causes.
It's all very well being King of the North or able to win in Ilford, but it's the huge tracts of suburbia across the county where elections are won and lost.
Who can appeal to them?
That was an insightful piece that someone posted on the previous thread, that removing SKS only removes the problem of SKS being leader. It doesn't change any of the underlying issues.
Indeed. Do we know what Burnham, Streeting, Rayner, or anyone else who thinks they are a contender would actually do? What new policies would be pursued?
Last month I spoke to a former Treasury SPAD, the brutal reality is that the government, this one or the next one needs to find £200 billion a year in tax revenues to become popular.
This illustrates the problem. British firms being flogged off to foreigners so that future profits, dividends and taxes (and even government subsidies) are sent abroad rather than supporting our economy. And all nodded through by an Establishment that can't tell the difference between genuine foreign investment and asset stripping.
Well if we don’t value these businesses others will
Also see poor valuations on the LSE compared to other indexes and also the lack of listings on our stock exchange with multiple causes.
Uncle Mac was right...
The sale of assets is common with individuals and states when they run into financial difficulties. First, all the Georgian silver goes, and then all that nice furniture that used to be in the saloon. Then the Canalettos go.
Which he then, rightly, went on to clarify...
When I ventured the other day to criticise the system I was, I am afraid, misunderstood. As a Conservative, I am naturally in favour of returning into private ownership and private management all those means of production and distribution which are now controlled by state capitalism. I am sure they will be more efficient. What I ventured to question was the using of these huge sums as if they were income.
And any of us who have voted for any government at all since the 80s are a bit culpable in that.
As someone who has quite consistently voted against all but one government since 1987, I give myself a pass.
It's all very well being King of the North or able to win in Ilford, but it's the huge tracts of suburbia across the county where elections are won and lost.
Who can appeal to them?
That was an insightful piece that someone posted on the previous thread, that removing SKS only removes the problem of SKS being leader. It doesn't change any of the underlying issues.
Indeed. Do we know what Burnham, Streeting, Rayner, or anyone else who thinks they are a contender would actually do? What new policies would be pursued?
Last month I spoke to a former Treasury SPAD, the brutal reality is that the government, this one or the next one needs to find £200 billion a year in tax revenues to become popular.
This illustrates the problem. British firms being flogged off to foreigners so that future profits, dividends and taxes (and even government subsidies) are sent abroad rather than supporting our economy. And all nodded through by an Establishment that can't tell the difference between genuine foreign investment and asset stripping.
Yes. And I think this very general sense of being an island cash cow for Johnny Foreigner is part of the inarticulate feeling many voters have of loss of identity.
This is part of what lies behind Reform voting. However Reform itself will split interestingly between a small powerful elite who rather like the plutocratic opportunities of cash cow Britain, some of whom live abroad, and their voters who preferred the world where Britain appeared to run Britain and also owned lots of Abroadland rather than the other way round.
Interestingly Premiership football is a sort of metaphor for all of this.
Its an inevitable consequence of running a permanent trade deficit.
UK assets are sold to foreigners so that British people can have foreign holidays and imported consumer tat.
It's not just foreign holidays and imported consumer goods. It's also imports of fossil fuels, batteries, fertiliser, food, cars, computer chips, solar panels, steel, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, etc - everything a modern society needs to function.
It's all very well being King of the North or able to win in Ilford, but it's the huge tracts of suburbia across the county where elections are won and lost.
Who can appeal to them?
That was an insightful piece that someone posted on the previous thread, that removing SKS only removes the problem of SKS being leader. It doesn't change any of the underlying issues.
Indeed. Do we know what Burnham, Streeting, Rayner, or anyone else who thinks they are a contender would actually do? What new policies would be pursued?
Last month I spoke to a former Treasury SPAD, the brutal reality is that the government, this one or the next one needs to find £200 billion a year in tax revenues to become popular.
This illustrates the problem. British firms being flogged off to foreigners so that future profits, dividends and taxes (and even government subsidies) are sent abroad rather than supporting our economy. And all nodded through by an Establishment that can't tell the difference between genuine foreign investment and asset stripping.
Well if we don’t value these businesses others will
Also see poor valuations on the LSE compared to other indexes and also the lack of listings on our stock exchange with multiple causes.
I've got a solution that'd displease both the left and the right. Rejoin the EU and apply to join the Euro.
Snap.
If you offered me a time machine to go back to 1997 and the Tories win (and keep winning as Labour goes Left) but we join the Euro, I think I'd take that.
And have our economic policy and interest rates dictated to by Frankfurt and Brussels not our own needs, see Greece
Though I'd reflect that with Lab MPs suggesting that the bond markets will 'fall into line', the chances of us running economic policy in our own interests under current circumstances seems fainter and fainter. (But as Ian said, 'things can't get worse' is a failure of imagination (which as Max said, is how the GE of 2024 ended up as it did)).
It's all very well being King of the North or able to win in Ilford, but it's the huge tracts of suburbia across the county where elections are won and lost.
Who can appeal to them?
That was an insightful piece that someone posted on the previous thread, that removing SKS only removes the problem of SKS being leader. It doesn't change any of the underlying issues.
Indeed. Do we know what Burnham, Streeting, Rayner, or anyone else who thinks they are a contender would actually do? What new policies would be pursued?
Last month I spoke to a former Treasury SPAD, the brutal reality is that the government, this one or the next one needs to find £200 billion a year in tax revenues to become popular.
This illustrates the problem. British firms being flogged off to foreigners so that future profits, dividends and taxes (and even government subsidies) are sent abroad rather than supporting our economy. And all nodded through by an Establishment that can't tell the difference between genuine foreign investment and asset stripping.
Well if we don’t value these businesses others will
Also see poor valuations on the LSE compared to other indexes and also the lack of listings on our stock exchange with multiple causes.
Uncle Mac was right...
The sale of assets is common with individuals and states when they run into financial difficulties. First, all the Georgian silver goes, and then all that nice furniture that used to be in the saloon. Then the Canalettos go.
Which he then, rightly, went on to clarify...
When I ventured the other day to criticise the system I was, I am afraid, misunderstood. As a Conservative, I am naturally in favour of returning into private ownership and private management all those means of production and distribution which are now controlled by state capitalism. I am sure they will be more efficient. What I ventured to question was the using of these huge sums as if they were income.
And any of us who have voted for any government at all since the 80s are a bit culpable in that.
As someone who has quite consistently voted against all but one government since 1987, I give myself a pass.
Oooh, which one did you vote for? 2015? But that wasn't on the ballot paper.
Anyway, if we're doing Shakespeare, we know that Stamer can "be lion-mettled, proud, and take no care who chafes, who frets, or where conspirers are", insofar as he shall never vanquished be until someone in particular dares to come against him.
I've got a solution that'd displease both the left and the right. Rejoin the EU and apply to join the Euro.
Snap.
If you offered me a time machine to go back to 1997 and the Tories win (and keep winning as Labour goes Left) but we join the Euro, I think I'd take that.
We should have joined the Euro and its predecessor organisations from the start and had the ECB in London. The economic takeover of the continent by the Bank of England. Our ancestors would not have believed the success.
Better for Labour than yesterday's Yougov, even better for Reform than yesterday's Yougov and higher even than the 27% NEV Reform got from the local elections.
Bad poll for the third placed Tories and 5th placed Greens who both are down 1%. Good poll for the LDs who get their usual post local elections bounce and overtake the LDs for 4th
Its difficult to see Labour making a significant breakthrough until they regain their place as market leader on the left. Not too likely while they have Starmer in charge but if they choose wisely we could be adding Labour and Green votes together.
And lose a whole load of votes to the centre and right
Labour's problem is they are losing to both the right and left and any move to the left the bond markets will act
Interesting public opinion has moved firmly away from taxing and spending
If Labour increased taxes to fund welfare that wouldn't lead to much market action as it would at least be funded but it would slow economic growth and see rich wealth creators move abroad
I've got a solution that'd displease both the left and the right. Rejoin the EU and apply to join the Euro.
Even the LDs aren't stupid enough to push that at present
The Liberal Democrats are urging the Labour government to drop their "red lines" and rejoin the EU Single Market and Customs Union to rescue the British economy.
While Keir Starmer has signaled a desire for closer ties, the Liberal Democrats argue that current plans are far too timid to address the cost-of-living crisis and the red tape currently strangling British businesses. The party plans to use the upcoming King’s Speech to push for votes that would force a much deeper relationship with our European neighbors.
“The Conservatives’ botched Brexit deal has held this country back for too long and now is the time to be far bolder on Europe, on everything from trade to defence.” Ed Davey MP
With research suggesting a closer trade deal could boost public finances by £25 billion a year, the Lib Dems are making it clear that growth depends on Europe.
“We all know the best way to deliver the economic growth that this country desperately needs: a closer relationship with Europe. Yet his reset plan is far too weak and unambitious.” Ed Davey MP
The Liberal Democrats are committed to using every opportunity in Parliament to strengthen the EU Reset Bill and ensure the UK doesn't miss out on the prosperity it deserves.
Shackling ourselves to a low growth, high regulation, body saves the economy how ?
It’s all dumb platitudes from Davey.
There’s nothing concrete in there about what we gain. I asked you the other day what we’d gain from it, as I’d like to know, and got a snarky non answer.
Better for Labour than yesterday's Yougov, even better for Reform than yesterday's Yougov and higher even than the 27% NEV Reform got from the local elections.
Bad poll for the third placed Tories and 5th placed Greens who both are down 1%. Good poll for the LDs who get their usual post local elections bounce and overtake the LDs for 4th
Its difficult to see Labour making a significant breakthrough until they regain their place as market leader on the left. Not too likely while they have Starmer in charge but if they choose wisely we could be adding Labour and Green votes together.
And lose a whole load of votes to the centre and right
Labour's problem is they are losing to both the right and left and any move to the left the bond markets will act
Interesting public opinion has moved firmly away from taxing and spending
That will not be the case when RefCon austerity bites. The voter wants low taxes AND spending on health, pensions and defence. Britain is broken and your team broke it. Unfortunately Team Starmer don't possess the tools to repair it. Like the US we are the Roman Empire in decline.
I suppose at least Nigel can dispense with defence spending, he seems to enjoy a comfortable relationship with Putin.
Better for Labour than yesterday's Yougov, even better for Reform than yesterday's Yougov and higher even than the 27% NEV Reform got from the local elections.
Bad poll for the third placed Tories and 5th placed Greens who both are down 1%. Good poll for the LDs who get their usual post local elections bounce and overtake the LDs for 4th
Its difficult to see Labour making a significant breakthrough until they regain their place as market leader on the left. Not too likely while they have Starmer in charge but if they choose wisely we could be adding Labour and Green votes together.
And lose a whole load of votes to the centre and right
Labour's problem is they are losing to both the right and left and any move to the left the bond markets will act
Interesting public opinion has moved firmly away from taxing and spending
I think you'll find public opinion remains against both tax rises and the sort of spending cuts required to avoid tax rises.
Better for Labour than yesterday's Yougov, even better for Reform than yesterday's Yougov and higher even than the 27% NEV Reform got from the local elections.
Bad poll for the third placed Tories and 5th placed Greens who both are down 1%. Good poll for the LDs who get their usual post local elections bounce and overtake the LDs for 4th
Its difficult to see Labour making a significant breakthrough until they regain their place as market leader on the left. Not too likely while they have Starmer in charge but if they choose wisely we could be adding Labour and Green votes together.
And lose a whole load of votes to the centre and right
Labour's problem is they are losing to both the right and left and any move to the left the bond markets will act
Interesting public opinion has moved firmly away from taxing and spending
That will not be the case when RefCon austerity bites. The voter wants low taxes AND spending on health, pensions and defence. Britain is broken and your team broke it. Unfortunately Team Starmer don't possess the tools to repair it. Like the US we are the Roman Empire in decline.
I suppose at least Nigel can dispense with defence spending, he seems to enjoy a comfortable relationship with Putin.
And one of the reasons why the markets have so much power over us is because of the unfunded Covid spending which was a Tory mistake. That doesn’t mean Labour aren’t to blame too but the bill always comes and now we are beholden to our creditors for my entire lifetime.
I've got a solution that'd displease both the left and the right. Rejoin the EU and apply to join the Euro.
Even the LDs aren't stupid enough to push that at present
The Liberal Democrats are urging the Labour government to drop their "red lines" and rejoin the EU Single Market and Customs Union to rescue the British economy.
While Keir Starmer has signaled a desire for closer ties, the Liberal Democrats argue that current plans are far too timid to address the cost-of-living crisis and the red tape currently strangling British businesses. The party plans to use the upcoming King’s Speech to push for votes that would force a much deeper relationship with our European neighbors.
“The Conservatives’ botched Brexit deal has held this country back for too long and now is the time to be far bolder on Europe, on everything from trade to defence.” Ed Davey MP
With research suggesting a closer trade deal could boost public finances by £25 billion a year, the Lib Dems are making it clear that growth depends on Europe.
“We all know the best way to deliver the economic growth that this country desperately needs: a closer relationship with Europe. Yet his reset plan is far too weak and unambitious.” Ed Davey MP
The Liberal Democrats are committed to using every opportunity in Parliament to strengthen the EU Reset Bill and ensure the UK doesn't miss out on the prosperity it deserves.
So not the Euro then or even yet the EU
The lack of divergence between the French and German economies and that of the UK since Brexit would suggets the fees we previously paid to the EU were poor value.
So when this cunning plan goes tits up...? What next? Sell everything north of the Trent to China?
I've got a solution that'd displease both the left and the right. Rejoin the EU and apply to join the Euro.
Even the LDs aren't stupid enough to push that at present
The Liberal Democrats are urging the Labour government to drop their "red lines" and rejoin the EU Single Market and Customs Union to rescue the British economy.
While Keir Starmer has signaled a desire for closer ties, the Liberal Democrats argue that current plans are far too timid to address the cost-of-living crisis and the red tape currently strangling British businesses. The party plans to use the upcoming King’s Speech to push for votes that would force a much deeper relationship with our European neighbors.
“The Conservatives’ botched Brexit deal has held this country back for too long and now is the time to be far bolder on Europe, on everything from trade to defence.” Ed Davey MP
With research suggesting a closer trade deal could boost public finances by £25 billion a year, the Lib Dems are making it clear that growth depends on Europe.
“We all know the best way to deliver the economic growth that this country desperately needs: a closer relationship with Europe. Yet his reset plan is far too weak and unambitious.” Ed Davey MP
The Liberal Democrats are committed to using every opportunity in Parliament to strengthen the EU Reset Bill and ensure the UK doesn't miss out on the prosperity it deserves.
So not the Euro then or even yet the EU
The lack of divergence between the French and German economies and that of the UK since Brexit would suggets the fees we previously paid to the EU were poor value.
So when this cunning plan goes tits up...? What next? Sell everything north of the Trent to China?
Be more lucrative to sell everything South of it. Would annoy all the right people too!
Starmer if he wants to keep his job has to devote his remaining time to reclaiming our place at the very centre of Europe. Ride roughshod through all Labour doubters if there are any.
It'll put him on a collision course with Farage in a contest that he's certain to win. He needs to do exactly what the the government did in 2016 but in reverse.
Put his best brains on the job and be single minded. Get everything right that Cameron's mob got wrong accompanied by a huge advertising campaign.
Starmer is incapable of doing anything radical. We saw that on Monday. If he was suddenly going to start pulling rabbits out of hats, he had the opportunity to do so. He cannot.
You're on the nail. It's for that reason he ought to be replaced. Listen to any of the vox pops. People have had enough. They want a change and it has little chance of happening with Starmer. My guess is we'll end up with a contest between Streeting and Burnham. It's a convoluted path for Burnham so chances are it'll go to Streeting. I don't rate Burnham that highly anyway. He's a three time loser so don't expect the Messiah
I've got a solution that'd displease both the left and the right. Rejoin the EU and apply to join the Euro.
Even the LDs aren't stupid enough to push that at present
The Liberal Democrats are urging the Labour government to drop their "red lines" and rejoin the EU Single Market and Customs Union to rescue the British economy.
While Keir Starmer has signaled a desire for closer ties, the Liberal Democrats argue that current plans are far too timid to address the cost-of-living crisis and the red tape currently strangling British businesses. The party plans to use the upcoming King’s Speech to push for votes that would force a much deeper relationship with our European neighbors.
“The Conservatives’ botched Brexit deal has held this country back for too long and now is the time to be far bolder on Europe, on everything from trade to defence.” Ed Davey MP
With research suggesting a closer trade deal could boost public finances by £25 billion a year, the Lib Dems are making it clear that growth depends on Europe.
“We all know the best way to deliver the economic growth that this country desperately needs: a closer relationship with Europe. Yet his reset plan is far too weak and unambitious.” Ed Davey MP
The Liberal Democrats are committed to using every opportunity in Parliament to strengthen the EU Reset Bill and ensure the UK doesn't miss out on the prosperity it deserves.
Shackling ourselves to a low growth, high regulation, body saves the economy how ?
It’s all dumb platitudes from Davey.
There’s nothing concrete in there about what we gain. I asked you the other day what we’d gain from it, as I’d like to know, and got a snarky non answer.
One benefit would be decreased trade friction. I think the 90 day rule would drop, which would help my firm as we have lots of people in Europe on projects.
I've got a solution that'd displease both the left and the right. Rejoin the EU and apply to join the Euro.
Even the LDs aren't stupid enough to push that at present
The Liberal Democrats are urging the Labour government to drop their "red lines" and rejoin the EU Single Market and Customs Union to rescue the British economy.
While Keir Starmer has signaled a desire for closer ties, the Liberal Democrats argue that current plans are far too timid to address the cost-of-living crisis and the red tape currently strangling British businesses. The party plans to use the upcoming King’s Speech to push for votes that would force a much deeper relationship with our European neighbors.
“The Conservatives’ botched Brexit deal has held this country back for too long and now is the time to be far bolder on Europe, on everything from trade to defence.” Ed Davey MP
With research suggesting a closer trade deal could boost public finances by £25 billion a year, the Lib Dems are making it clear that growth depends on Europe.
“We all know the best way to deliver the economic growth that this country desperately needs: a closer relationship with Europe. Yet his reset plan is far too weak and unambitious.” Ed Davey MP
The Liberal Democrats are committed to using every opportunity in Parliament to strengthen the EU Reset Bill and ensure the UK doesn't miss out on the prosperity it deserves.
So not the Euro then or even yet the EU
The lack of divergence between the French and German economies and that of the UK since Brexit would suggets the fees we previously paid to the EU were poor value.
So when this cunning plan goes tits up...? What next? Sell everything north of the Trent to China?
I thought we already did that under Major and Blair. Still it kept inflation based on imported Chinese tat low for a couple of decades.
We lost our industrial base to China a quarter of a century ago. Europe are losing theirs now.
Andon Labs tested their AI agent Mona, built on Google’s Gemini, by letting it manage a real cafeteria in Stockholm for two weeks on a $21,000 budget.
Mona spent heavily on unnecessary supplies, including 6,000 napkins, 3,000 gloves, and 300 cans of tomatoes, while forgetting to order bread. Sandwiches had to be removed from the menu entirely... https://x.com/Pirat_Nation/status/2054396463225127280
There's a bit in the Hitch Hiker's Guide to the Galaxy (written in 1979) where the heroes come upon an intergalactic flight has been grounded for thousands of years. Its automated systems told it not to launch until it was fully stocked up with lemon-soaked paper napkins, for the comfort of its passengers. But the surrounding civilization collapsed, and the napkins never arrived. Consequently it put all the passengers into hibernation (waking them once every few hundred years for coffee and biscuits) until such time as another civilization might arise, and restock its lemon-soaked paper napkins. The Guide is a more accurate and prophetic account of modernity than most Very Serious Science Fiction writers could dream of creating. https://x.com/PlatoonPod/status/2054422380525535398
Better for Labour than yesterday's Yougov, even better for Reform than yesterday's Yougov and higher even than the 27% NEV Reform got from the local elections.
Bad poll for the third placed Tories and 5th placed Greens who both are down 1%. Good poll for the LDs who get their usual post local elections bounce and overtake the LDs for 4th
Its difficult to see Labour making a significant breakthrough until they regain their place as market leader on the left. Not too likely while they have Starmer in charge but if they choose wisely we could be adding Labour and Green votes together.
And lose a whole load of votes to the centre and right
Labour's problem is they are losing to both the right and left and any move to the left the bond markets will act
Interesting public opinion has moved firmly away from taxing and spending
That will not be the case when RefCon austerity bites. The voter wants low taxes AND spending on health, pensions and defence. Britain is broken and your team broke it. Unfortunately Team Starmer don't possess the tools to repair it. Like the US we are the Roman Empire in decline.
I suppose at least Nigel can dispense with defence spending, he seems to enjoy a comfortable relationship with Putin.
And one of the reasons why the markets have so much power over us is because of the unfunded Covid spending which was a Tory mistake. That doesn’t mean Labour aren’t to blame too but the bill always comes and now we are beholden to our creditors for my entire lifetime.
The COVID spending was unconscionable really, loading more debt onto a low growth economy.. will cripple us for decades..😵💫
Better for Labour than yesterday's Yougov, even better for Reform than yesterday's Yougov and higher even than the 27% NEV Reform got from the local elections.
Bad poll for the third placed Tories and 5th placed Greens who both are down 1%. Good poll for the LDs who get their usual post local elections bounce and overtake the LDs for 4th
Its difficult to see Labour making a significant breakthrough until they regain their place as market leader on the left. Not too likely while they have Starmer in charge but if they choose wisely we could be adding Labour and Green votes together.
And lose a whole load of votes to the centre and right
Labour's problem is they are losing to both the right and left and any move to the left the bond markets will act
Interesting public opinion has moved firmly away from taxing and spending
That will not be the case when RefCon austerity bites. The voter wants low taxes AND spending on health, pensions and defence. Britain is broken and your team broke it. Unfortunately Team Starmer don't possess the tools to repair it. Like the US we are the Roman Empire in decline.
I suppose at least Nigel can dispense with defence spending, he seems to enjoy a comfortable relationship with Putin.
Correction, the voter wants low taxes on themselves but high taxes on the rich and big business and less spending on welfare and overseas aid even if more on the NHS and education and defence
Better for Labour than yesterday's Yougov, even better for Reform than yesterday's Yougov and higher even than the 27% NEV Reform got from the local elections.
Bad poll for the third placed Tories and 5th placed Greens who both are down 1%. Good poll for the LDs who get their usual post local elections bounce and overtake the LDs for 4th
Its difficult to see Labour making a significant breakthrough until they regain their place as market leader on the left. Not too likely while they have Starmer in charge but if they choose wisely we could be adding Labour and Green votes together.
And lose a whole load of votes to the centre and right
Labour's problem is they are losing to both the right and left and any move to the left the bond markets will act
Interesting public opinion has moved firmly away from taxing and spending
That will not be the case when RefCon austerity bites. The voter wants low taxes AND spending on health, pensions and defence. Britain is broken and your team broke it. Unfortunately Team Starmer don't possess the tools to repair it. Like the US we are the Roman Empire in decline.
I suppose at least Nigel can dispense with defence spending, he seems to enjoy a comfortable relationship with Putin.
And one of the reasons why the markets have so much power over us is because of the unfunded Covid spending which was a Tory mistake. That doesn’t mean Labour aren’t to blame too but the bill always comes and now we are beholden to our creditors for my entire lifetime.
The covid spending was supported by labour and Starmer wanted us locked down much longer
Radical changes are needed including means tested pensions and even some NHS services
What is certain we are all going to be poorer and it may be the country is ungovernable
I've got a solution that'd displease both the left and the right. Rejoin the EU and apply to join the Euro.
Even the LDs aren't stupid enough to push that at present
The Liberal Democrats are urging the Labour government to drop their "red lines" and rejoin the EU Single Market and Customs Union to rescue the British economy.
While Keir Starmer has signaled a desire for closer ties, the Liberal Democrats argue that current plans are far too timid to address the cost-of-living crisis and the red tape currently strangling British businesses. The party plans to use the upcoming King’s Speech to push for votes that would force a much deeper relationship with our European neighbors.
“The Conservatives’ botched Brexit deal has held this country back for too long and now is the time to be far bolder on Europe, on everything from trade to defence.” Ed Davey MP
With research suggesting a closer trade deal could boost public finances by £25 billion a year, the Lib Dems are making it clear that growth depends on Europe.
“We all know the best way to deliver the economic growth that this country desperately needs: a closer relationship with Europe. Yet his reset plan is far too weak and unambitious.” Ed Davey MP
The Liberal Democrats are committed to using every opportunity in Parliament to strengthen the EU Reset Bill and ensure the UK doesn't miss out on the prosperity it deserves.
Shackling ourselves to a low growth, high regulation, body saves the economy how ?
It’s all dumb platitudes from Davey.
There’s nothing concrete in there about what we gain. I asked you the other day what we’d gain from it, as I’d like to know, and got a snarky non answer.
Better for Labour than yesterday's Yougov, even better for Reform than yesterday's Yougov and higher even than the 27% NEV Reform got from the local elections.
Bad poll for the third placed Tories and 5th placed Greens who both are down 1%. Good poll for the LDs who get their usual post local elections bounce and overtake the LDs for 4th
Its difficult to see Labour making a significant breakthrough until they regain their place as market leader on the left. Not too likely while they have Starmer in charge but if they choose wisely we could be adding Labour and Green votes together.
And lose a whole load of votes to the centre and right
Labour's problem is they are losing to both the right and left and any move to the left the bond markets will act
Interesting public opinion has moved firmly away from taxing and spending
That will not be the case when RefCon austerity bites. The voter wants low taxes AND spending on health, pensions and defence. Britain is broken and your team broke it. Unfortunately Team Starmer don't possess the tools to repair it. Like the US we are the Roman Empire in decline.
I suppose at least Nigel can dispense with defence spending, he seems to enjoy a comfortable relationship with Putin.
And one of the reasons why the markets have so much power over us is because of the unfunded Covid spending which was a Tory mistake. That doesn’t mean Labour aren’t to blame too but the bill always comes and now we are beholden to our creditors for my entire lifetime.
That's my view. We have been buffeted by a barrage of events for the last 6 years, principally COVID, to which our response took little account of the economic impact of our actions. It was a baffling failure. I'd observe that the Labour Party were urging the government on only to ever greater shutdowns, but that is an observation, not a mitigation.
Better for Labour than yesterday's Yougov, even better for Reform than yesterday's Yougov and higher even than the 27% NEV Reform got from the local elections.
Bad poll for the third placed Tories and 5th placed Greens who both are down 1%. Good poll for the LDs who get their usual post local elections bounce and overtake the LDs for 4th
Its difficult to see Labour making a significant breakthrough until they regain their place as market leader on the left. Not too likely while they have Starmer in charge but if they choose wisely we could be adding Labour and Green votes together.
And lose a whole load of votes to the centre and right
Labour's problem is they are losing to both the right and left and any move to the left the bond markets will act
Interesting public opinion has moved firmly away from taxing and spending
I think you'll find public opinion remains against both tax rises and the sort of spending cuts required to avoid tax rises.
Of course it does, people will always vote for fewer taxes and higher spending.
What’s required is some adults in the room, prepared to explain that that solution isn’t feasible, choose an option that could balance the budget, and sell it to the electorate.
Andon Labs tested their AI agent Mona, built on Google’s Gemini, by letting it manage a real cafeteria in Stockholm for two weeks on a $21,000 budget.
Mona spent heavily on unnecessary supplies, including 6,000 napkins, 3,000 gloves, and 300 cans of tomatoes, while forgetting to order bread. Sandwiches had to be removed from the menu entirely... https://x.com/Pirat_Nation/status/2054396463225127280
There's a bit in the Hitch Hiker's Guide to the Galaxy (written in 1979) where the heroes come upon an intergalactic flight has been grounded for thousands of years. Its automated systems told it not to launch until it was fully stocked up with lemon-soaked paper napkins, for the comfort of its passengers. But the surrounding civilization collapsed, and the napkins never arrived. Consequently it put all the passengers into hibernation (waking them once every few hundred years for coffee and biscuits) until such time as another civilization might arise, and restock its lemon-soaked paper napkins. The Guide is a more accurate and prophetic account of modernity than most Very Serious Science Fiction writers could dream of creating. https://x.com/PlatoonPod/status/2054422380525535398
Better for Labour than yesterday's Yougov, even better for Reform than yesterday's Yougov and higher even than the 27% NEV Reform got from the local elections.
Bad poll for the third placed Tories and 5th placed Greens who both are down 1%. Good poll for the LDs who get their usual post local elections bounce and overtake the LDs for 4th
Its difficult to see Labour making a significant breakthrough until they regain their place as market leader on the left. Not too likely while they have Starmer in charge but if they choose wisely we could be adding Labour and Green votes together.
And lose a whole load of votes to the centre and right
Labour's problem is they are losing to both the right and left and any move to the left the bond markets will act
Interesting public opinion has moved firmly away from taxing and spending
That will not be the case when RefCon austerity bites. The voter wants low taxes AND spending on health, pensions and defence. Britain is broken and your team broke it. Unfortunately Team Starmer don't possess the tools to repair it. Like the US we are the Roman Empire in decline.
I suppose at least Nigel can dispense with defence spending, he seems to enjoy a comfortable relationship with Putin.
And one of the reasons why the markets have so much power over us is because of the unfunded Covid spending which was a Tory mistake. That doesn’t mean Labour aren’t to blame too but the bill always comes and now we are beholden to our creditors for my entire lifetime.
The covid spending was supported by labour and Starmer wanted us locked down much longer
Radical changes are needed including means tested pensions and even some NHS services
What is certain we are all going to be poorer and it may be the country is ungovernable
It is not ungovernable. Life in the UK is still pretty good. 80%+ of countries would love to have our problems.
The issue is voter expectations vs reality not that the reality is unmanageable.
Better for Labour than yesterday's Yougov, even better for Reform than yesterday's Yougov and higher even than the 27% NEV Reform got from the local elections.
Bad poll for the third placed Tories and 5th placed Greens who both are down 1%. Good poll for the LDs who get their usual post local elections bounce and overtake the LDs for 4th
Its difficult to see Labour making a significant breakthrough until they regain their place as market leader on the left. Not too likely while they have Starmer in charge but if they choose wisely we could be adding Labour and Green votes together.
And lose a whole load of votes to the centre and right
Labour's problem is they are losing to both the right and left and any move to the left the bond markets will act
Interesting public opinion has moved firmly away from taxing and spending
That will not be the case when RefCon austerity bites. The voter wants low taxes AND spending on health, pensions and defence. Britain is broken and your team broke it. Unfortunately Team Starmer don't possess the tools to repair it. Like the US we are the Roman Empire in decline.
I suppose at least Nigel can dispense with defence spending, he seems to enjoy a comfortable relationship with Putin.
Correction, the voter wants low taxes on themselves but high taxes on the rich and big business and less spending on welfare and overseas aid even if more on the NHS and education and defence
Perhaps a Green/Reform coalition would hit the spot then assuming Polanski and Farage can find a way to work together.
Better for Labour than yesterday's Yougov, even better for Reform than yesterday's Yougov and higher even than the 27% NEV Reform got from the local elections.
Bad poll for the third placed Tories and 5th placed Greens who both are down 1%. Good poll for the LDs who get their usual post local elections bounce and overtake the LDs for 4th
Its difficult to see Labour making a significant breakthrough until they regain their place as market leader on the left. Not too likely while they have Starmer in charge but if they choose wisely we could be adding Labour and Green votes together.
And lose a whole load of votes to the centre and right
Labour's problem is they are losing to both the right and left and any move to the left the bond markets will act
Interesting public opinion has moved firmly away from taxing and spending
That will not be the case when RefCon austerity bites. The voter wants low taxes AND spending on health, pensions and defence. Britain is broken and your team broke it. Unfortunately Team Starmer don't possess the tools to repair it. Like the US we are the Roman Empire in decline.
I suppose at least Nigel can dispense with defence spending, he seems to enjoy a comfortable relationship with Putin.
And one of the reasons why the markets have so much power over us is because of the unfunded Covid spending which was a Tory mistake. That doesn’t mean Labour aren’t to blame too but the bill always comes and now we are beholden to our creditors for my entire lifetime.
That's my view. We have been buffeted by a barrage of events for the last 6 years, principally COVID, to which our response took little account of the economic impact of our actions. It was a baffling failure. I'd observe that the Labour Party were urging the government on only to ever greater shutdowns, but that is an observation, not a mitigation.
It wasn't so much the shutdowns, which to be fair to Team Johnson was wholly reasonable at the time. Compare and contrast with the disgusting chaos in the USA. And booming growth six years on doesn't help dead people.
The furlough schemes and things like eat out to help out were over complicated expensive disasters. People's livelihoods could have been protected for less expenditure.
I've got a solution that'd displease both the left and the right. Rejoin the EU and apply to join the Euro.
Snap.
If you offered me a time machine to go back to 1997 and the Tories win (and keep winning as Labour goes Left) but we join the Euro, I think I'd take that.
We should have joined the Euro and its predecessor organisations from the start and had the ECB in London. The economic takeover of the continent by the Bank of England. Our ancestors would not have believed the success.
It's very plausible that 9/11 kept us out of the Euro. The Great Persuader was set on it before all that kicked off and he got obsessed with shaking the kaleidoscope.
Comments
Also see poor valuations on the LSE compared to other indexes and also the lack of listings on our stock exchange with multiple causes.
Also see poor valuations on the LSE compared to other indexes and also the lack of listings on our stock exchange with multiple causes.
Not great for Walter titty though.
Youth A: You know Andy Burnham?
Youth B: Who's that?
It's simply presenting the data as it is. I guess you could roll it to into a larger percentage for others, but that then naturally begs the question, "what's that others then?" so you may as well break it out in the first place.
Latest EMA of polls.
Labour and Tories continue neck and neck.
Hint of turning points for Reform, Green and LDs - or is this just noise?
In our first Westminster VI after the local elections, Reform’s lead increases to 9pts over Labour
➡️ REF UK 30% (+2)
🌹 LAB 21% (nc)
🌳 CON 19% (-1)
🌍 GREEN 11% (-1)
🔶 LIB DEM 14% (+2)
❓OTH 2% (-3)
🟡 SNP 3% (+1)
3% (+1) implies the previous 2% has an upper bound of 2.5% and so is a maximum of Scottish support at (Multiply through by 8.2) 20.5% - which is plainly wrong.
Given Burnham still does not have an MP willing to stand down for him and is still not even an NEC approved Labour parliamentary candidate, he is not relevant at the moment
He has 100+ MPs writing in support, plus presumably might get some votes from people wanting a challenge only when Burnham is in parliament.
Starmer should probably sack Wes to bring things to a head.
While Keir Starmer has signaled a desire for closer ties, the Liberal Democrats argue that current plans are far too timid to address the cost-of-living crisis and the red tape currently strangling British businesses. The party plans to use the upcoming King’s Speech to push for votes that would force a much deeper relationship with our European neighbors.
“The Conservatives’ botched Brexit deal has held this country back for too long and now is the time to be far bolder on Europe, on everything from trade to defence.” Ed Davey MP
With research suggesting a closer trade deal could boost public finances by £25 billion a year, the Lib Dems are making it clear that growth depends on Europe.
“We all know the best way to deliver the economic growth that this country desperately needs: a closer relationship with Europe. Yet his reset plan is far too weak and unambitious.” Ed Davey MP
The Liberal Democrats are committed to using every opportunity in Parliament to strengthen the EU Reset Bill and ensure the UK doesn't miss out on the prosperity it deserves.
Bad poll for the third placed Tories and 5th placed Greens who both are down 1%. Good poll for the LDs who get their usual post local elections bounce and overtake the LDs for 4th
Streeting and Mahmood both sitting in cabinet is not sustainable and has anyone heard from Yvette Cooper ?
So sad
RIP
The sale of assets is common with individuals and states when they run into financial difficulties. First, all the Georgian silver goes, and then all that nice furniture that used to be in the saloon. Then the Canalettos go.
Which he then, rightly, went on to clarify...
When I ventured the other day to criticise the system I was, I am afraid, misunderstood. As a Conservative, I am naturally in favour of returning into private ownership and private management all those means of production and distribution which are now controlled by state capitalism. I am sure they will be more efficient. What I ventured to question was the using of these huge sums as if they were income.
And any of us who have voted for any government at all since the 80s are a bit culpable in that.
This is part of what lies behind Reform voting. However Reform itself will split interestingly between a small powerful elite who rather like the plutocratic opportunities of cash cow Britain, some of whom live abroad, and their voters who preferred the world where Britain appeared to run Britain and also owned lots of Abroadland rather than the other way round.
Interestingly Premiership football is a sort of metaphor for all of this.
https://www.macrotrends.net/2549/pound-dollar-exchange-rate-historical-chart
Frankly Labour do need someone a bit better at spin than Starmer who seems to manage to make his successes look like failure.
Seriously. There will be many many people thinking “how can nigel be worse than this?” “Where is the evidence he’s worse at politics than this shower of selfish, stupid and careerist tossers?”
Plenty of suburbs in Greater Manchester too where Burnham is elected Mayor.
Commuter towns and market towns and ex industrial and seaside towns are also just as much swing seats now as the suburbs
If Badenoch can’t come out with a zinger of a response in the Commons today then there really is no hope for the Tories.
The million or so Tory fools who sat on their hands in 2024 to "punish" the party thought the same. They rolled the dice rather than vote for the Tories and look at what has happened.
It's going to be up to the Tories to provide a less risky option than voting for Reform and credible on the economy vs Labour who just seem to think more tax and ignoring bond markets is a winning idea.
UK assets are sold to foreigners so that British people can have foreign holidays and imported consumer tat.
For the ferries to the island - which when I was a kid were run by nationalised Sealink - one company is now part-owned by a Canadian firm and partly by a UK-based private equity outfit, having been sold to them by an Australian company some years back, with what little tax they pay (the significant profits being offset by the owners' borrowing) going abroad, and the other was previously owned by a consortium of Canadian and British pension funds but has just been sold to a UK-based but Scandinavian run private equity outfit. Island Roads - which manages the roads for the council, has complex ownership arrangements that ultimately ends up with a global corporation headquartered in France; the profits they make from mending the island's roads have what little tax is paid on them processed in Luxembourg, I believe.
Continuity Thatcherism.
And then, after the election, act in haste and repent at leisure, all over again.
So the danger for Labour is that if Rayner or Ed Miliband or even a returned Burnham replace Starmer and move Labour further towards its tax and spend comfort zone, they will lose more centrist swing voters to the Tories and LDs than they pick up leftwingers from the Greens
Labour's problem is they are losing to both the right and left and any move to the left the bond markets will act
Interesting public opinion has moved firmly away from taxing and spending
Differential turnout is the biggest driver of shifts, both in the actual election results and the polling.
https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/2054452708682403917
Anyway, if we're doing Shakespeare, we know that Stamer can "be lion-mettled, proud, and take no care who chafes, who frets, or where conspirers are", insofar as he shall never vanquished be until someone in particular dares to come against him.
Who's that? Well, Burnham would.
https://bsky.app/profile/chrisbrooke.bsky.social/post/3mlpwqxt4xs2c
It’s all dumb platitudes from Davey.
There’s nothing concrete in there about what we gain. I asked you the other day what we’d gain from it, as I’d like to know, and got a snarky non answer.
I suppose at least Nigel can dispense with defence spending, he seems to enjoy a comfortable relationship with Putin.
So when this cunning plan goes tits up...? What next? Sell everything north of the Trent to China?
Would annoy all the right people too!
We lost our industrial base to China a quarter of a century ago. Europe are losing theirs now.
Mona spent heavily on unnecessary supplies, including 6,000 napkins, 3,000 gloves, and 300 cans of tomatoes, while forgetting to order bread.
Sandwiches had to be removed from the menu entirely...
https://x.com/Pirat_Nation/status/2054396463225127280
There's a bit in the Hitch Hiker's Guide to the Galaxy (written in 1979) where the heroes come upon an intergalactic flight has been grounded for thousands of years.
Its automated systems told it not to launch until it was fully stocked up with lemon-soaked paper napkins, for the comfort of its passengers. But the surrounding civilization collapsed, and the napkins never arrived.
Consequently it put all the passengers into hibernation (waking them once every few hundred years for coffee and biscuits) until such time as another civilization might arise, and restock its lemon-soaked paper napkins.
The Guide is a more accurate and prophetic account of modernity than most Very Serious Science Fiction writers could dream of creating.
https://x.com/PlatoonPod/status/2054422380525535398
Radical changes are needed including means tested pensions and even some NHS services
What is certain we are all going to be poorer and it may be the country is ungovernable
Same treatment for Andy if he drops in and starts up with his nonsense. "Where's your seat then, big boy?"
What’s required is some adults in the room, prepared to explain that that solution isn’t feasible, choose an option that could balance the budget, and sell it to the electorate.
The issue is voter expectations vs reality not that the reality is unmanageable.
The furlough schemes and things like eat out to help out were over complicated expensive disasters. People's livelihoods could have been protected for less expenditure.
If so Labour - there's your out...
And Labour with a majority of 150 isn't going to lose.