Strange that Kemi has avoided the flak. The once mighty Tories have not only had the worst day of all the parties and are clearly going backwards but the Tories under her leadership is the one most certain not to be in contention for anything in 2028-9.
Perhaps the newshounds are giving SKS a going over before they turn their guns on her? Surely her chances of surviving the year as leader must be very slim indeed?
I think she gets to live on until next local elections because same problem as Labour, who is up to the job and actually wants to do it. Also with the tetonic plates shifting under Labour, I presume the Tories will want to know who they are actually going to be up against come the GE. If they get another spanking in the locals in a years time, this time in much more shire heavy locals, then all the "I am turning around the titanic" narrative will be done for.
The Kemical Weapon has proved surprisingly durable. If only she were 20-30% less black, she might actually have a shot at being PM.
Kemi needs time, not skin lightening. The party needs to wait until voters' answer to every complaint is not ‘14 years of Tory misrule’.
Strange that Kemi has avoided the flak. The once mighty Tories have not only had the worst day of all the parties and are clearly going backwards but under her leadership are the ones most certain not to be in contention for anything in 2028-9.
Perhaps the newshounds are giving SKS a going over before they turn their guns on her? Surely her chances of surviving the year as leader must be very slim indeed?
Worst day of all parties? Labour lost c.58% of the seats it was defending. Conservatives lost c.42% of the seats they were defending.
And Labour lost its hegemony in Wales.
Kemi had a bad day. Starmer had a far worse one.
She did, but it was entirely in line with expectations. Maybe with a couple of fortunate saves.
Nevertheless, she won't go anywhere. Her ratings are getting better, and she's doing well at the moment.
Tories being largest party on, say, c.25% of the vote or more is a realistic target for the next election - if still a stretch one.
Does anyone have a link to a list of all Councils elected and majorities therein, for all parties?
I can't find anywhere with information that detailed.
Give it a couple of days. Many results are yet to be announced.
Speaking of which, we still have not heard from Wes Streeting's manor, the London Borough of Redbridge, so we can see if his Ilford North constituency looks more or less safe than in July 2024.
Strange that Kemi has avoided the flak. The once mighty Tories have not only had the worst day of all the parties and are clearly going backwards but the Tories under her leadership is the one most certain not to be in contention for anything in 2028-9.
Perhaps the newshounds are giving SKS a going over before they turn their guns on her? Surely her chances of surviving the year as leader must be very slim indeed?
I think she gets to live on until next local elections because same problem as Labour, who is up to the job and actually wants to do it. Also with the tetonic plates shifting under Labour, I presume the Tories will want to know who they are actually going to be up against come the GE. If they get another spanking in the locals in a years time, this time in much more shire heavy locals, then all the "I am turning around the titanic" narrative will be done for.
The Kemical Weapon has proved surprisingly durable. If only she were 20-30% less black, she might actually have a shot at being PM.
If she found herself a sense of humour and stopped reminding everyone of their least favourite headmistress I don't think anyone would care less what Pantone she was using
Once you get north of the M62 'chip line' it's nothing but racists as far as the eye can see. The tories like to pretend this doesn't matter, but it does.
They have swept the board in Great Yarmouth where they were standing as "Great Yarmouth First", which was 9 seats and one extra in a by-election, so 10. They won them all.
There were 13 independents standing known to me as "support Restore UK" or similar (a number in Sheffield for some reason), and checking on those they all except one achieved under 2% of the vote.
Strange that Kemi has avoided the flak. The once mighty Tories have not only had the worst day of all the parties and are clearly going backwards but under her leadership are the ones most certain not to be in contention for anything in 2028-9.
Perhaps the newshounds are giving SKS a going over before they turn their guns on her? Surely her chances of surviving the year as leader must be very slim indeed?
Worst day of all parties? Labour lost c.58% of the seats it was defending. Conservatives lost c.42% of the seats they were defending.
And Labour lost its hegemony in Wales.
Kemi had a bad day. Starmer had a far worse one.
Though there's the rebound effect. Right now, the Conservatives should be gaining seats and Labour should be losing them.
It is important to note how staggeringly bad it is for a first-term opposition to not even be making miniscule gains. Until now, there's basically always been the rebound effect, because the previous opposition overshoots right before a change in govt, leaving easy gains. Not anymore, apparently
There's just no way of reading it as anything but a failure. Miliband made rebound gains, Hague made rebound gains, Foot made rebound gains.
Didn't TSE say that the thing that might cause Conservatives MPs to give up on Kemi B would be her behaving as if the party had done well?
It's not that shocking that they've been reduced to nothing on Havering, but it's still pretty damn shocking. Even Labour kept a toehold in one (very atypical) ward.
They have swept the board in Great Yarmouth where they were standing as "Great Yarmouth First", which was 9 seats and one extra in a by-election, so 10. They won them all.
There were 13 independents standing known to me as "support Restore UK" or similar (a number in Sheffield for some reason), and checking on those they all except one achieved under 2% of the vote.
Strange that Kemi has avoided the flak. The once mighty Tories have not only had the worst day of all the parties and are clearly going backwards but the Tories under her leadership is the one most certain not to be in contention for anything in 2028-9.
Perhaps the newshounds are giving SKS a going over before they turn their guns on her? Surely her chances of surviving the year as leader must be very slim indeed?
I think she gets to live on until next local elections because same problem as Labour, who is up to the job and actually wants to do it. Also with the tetonic plates shifting under Labour, I presume the Tories will want to know who they are actually going to be up against come the GE. If they get another spanking in the locals in a years time, this time in much more shire heavy locals, then all the "I am turning around the titanic" narrative will be done for.
The Kemical Weapon has proved surprisingly durable. If only she were 20-30% less black, she might actually have a shot at being PM.
Kemi needs time, not skin lightening. The party needs to wait until voters' answer to every complaint is not ‘14 years of Tory misrule’.
There's definitely a racist effect, and one of the neat things about F3PTP is you can measure it.
Winning scores in Romford St Edward's (all Reform): Terry 1108 Martin 1075 Sathya 965
Starmers best selling point pre GE was dull competency , leaving behind the Tory psychodramas .
I think the irritation amongst a section of the public is he delivered dull incompetency. He was never really liked but tolerated as a means to remove the Tories .
Personally I don’t get the level of hatred aimed towards him . It seems to be off the scale .
Strange that Kemi has avoided the flak. The once mighty Tories have not only had the worst day of all the parties and are clearly going backwards but under her leadership are the ones most certain not to be in contention for anything in 2028-9.
Perhaps the newshounds are giving SKS a going over before they turn their guns on her? Surely her chances of surviving the year as leader must be very slim indeed?
Worst day of all parties? Labour lost c.58% of the seats it was defending. Conservatives lost c.42% of the seats they were defending.
And Labour lost its hegemony in Wales.
Kemi had a bad day. Starmer had a far worse one.
It's debatable. Bearing in mind Conservatives started the day several rungs of the ladder below Labour.
I suspect Starmer rightly pays for his defeat.
As a non-Tory, Badenoch surviving sits well with me. As someone who doesn't want a Reform Government she frightens a) because she is a far weaker candidate than Farage, and b) she would be happy to prop up a Reform Government.
We must respond to the message that voters have sent us and break with the status quo once and for all. We must confront the big challenges the public face with real answers. That is how we will deliver the change that people are desperate for and build a stronger and fairer country.
Starmers best selling point pre GE was dull competency , leaving behind the Tory psychodramas .
I think the irritation amongst a section of the public is he delivered dull incompetency. He was never really liked but tolerated as a means to remove the Tories .
Personally I don’t get the level of hatred aimed towards him .
Starmers best selling point pre GE was dull competency , leaving behind the Tory psychodramas .
I think the irritation amongst a section of the public is he delivered dull incompetency. He was never really liked but tolerated as a means to remove the Tories .
Personally I don’t get the level of hatred aimed towards him . It seems to be off the scale .
Nor do I. It's highly contrived. Not being very good should earn you indifference, even disdain, but hatred?
Starmers best selling point pre GE was dull competency , leaving behind the Tory psychodramas .
I think the irritation amongst a section of the public is he delivered dull incompetency. He was never really liked but tolerated as a means to remove the Tories .
Personally I don’t get the level of hatred aimed towards him . It seems to be off the scale .
Nor do I. It's highly contrived. Not being very good should earn you indifference, even disdain, but hatred?
It really isn't contrived. I don't know exactly what it is, but among friends across the political spectrum mention him and there really is hatred in a way that say Sunak didn't trigger them*. The polling focus groups back this up, they all report voters in those groups absolutely hate him, the best they can get is what a spineless wet wipe (is literally was somebody said in a recent one). You don't get the sort of horredeous favourability ratings he consistently gets just from the media publishing negative stories.
* Reaction to Sunak was more eye rolling, little Rishi isn't out of his depth as a leader, but much more anger at the Tory party.
Starmers best selling point pre GE was dull competency , leaving behind the Tory psychodramas .
I think the irritation amongst a section of the public is he delivered dull incompetency. He was never really liked but tolerated as a means to remove the Tories .
Personally I don’t get the level of hatred aimed towards him . It seems to be off the scale .
Nor do I. It's highly contrived. Not being very good should earn you indifference, even disdain, but hatred?
Exactly . It’s become now the in thing to just hate on Starmer . I’m by no means a fan of his . I’m incredibly disappointed in Labour and Starmer but I would still walk over hot coals and vote for them if it meant stopping Reform.
Strange that Kemi has avoided the flak. The once mighty Tories have not only had the worst day of all the parties and are clearly going backwards but under her leadership are the ones most certain not to be in contention for anything in 2028-9.
Perhaps the newshounds are giving SKS a going over before they turn their guns on her? Surely her chances of surviving the year as leader must be very slim indeed?
Worst day of all parties? Labour lost c.58% of the seats it was defending. Conservatives lost c.42% of the seats they were defending.
And Labour lost its hegemony in Wales.
Kemi had a bad day. Starmer had a far worse one.
When we look at council byelections the Tory vote often holds up better at local level than national polling. To a greater degree than other parties voters make a distinction between Tory local government than national.
Add in that the Opposition should be making sweeping gains at this time in the Parliamentary cycle and things look very grim for the Tories in England. Scotland and Wales look even worse.
Birmingham Council is the one to watch. That is the sort of result that Parliament will have in 2029. Try to form a government from that!
Maybe. But a couple of years of local level chaos is going to give a lot of folk pause for thought. Do you want the UK to become Brum?
If the shine is coming off Reform, there's a lot of "small c" conservative voters going to think "what is best?".
The Tories won't merge with Reform. They won't do anything that appears to cement them together. But a pact on where they stand? Maybe. A carve up of the country as to where they don't stand against each other might happen. The refusal to do that in the past was to resist the claim that they are not a national party. But a party is nothing without power. A consolidated offering of the right versus Labour fighting Refom in its heartland seats but also getting a kicking from the Greens, Plaid, SNP... You could then see Labour losing 250 seats, maybe more.
I already expect a significant number of Labour seats to fall - they just don't feel like they ever were seats they could keep in a competitive election. And the next election is certainly going to be that.
I think on balance these results were every bit as bad for the Tories as they were for Labour. We generally don’t like our politicians or governments so parties in power for extended periods, such as 14 years, get hollowed out before they collapse. In opposition they need to rebuild their base. The Tories started off at a relatively low ebb for them and have gone sharply backwards, rendered insignificant in both Scotland and Wales. They have lost hundreds of the activists that should have helped them retake seats lost in 2024. With much less to lose they have lost plenty.
I don’t blame Kimi for this and I don’t think any other leader would have done better. The Tories are still at risk of failing to exist. This was not a step on the way back from the precipice.
Strange that Kemi has avoided the flak. The once mighty Tories have not only had the worst day of all the parties and are clearly going backwards but the Tories under her leadership is the one most certain not to be in contention for anything in 2028-9.
Perhaps the newshounds are giving SKS a going over before they turn their guns on her? Surely her chances of surviving the year as leader must be very slim indeed?
I think she gets to live on until next local elections because same problem as Labour, who is up to the job and actually wants to do it. Also with the tetonic plates shifting under Labour, I presume the Tories will want to know who they are actually going to be up against come the GE. If they get another spanking in the locals in a years time, this time in much more shire heavy locals, then all the "I am turning around the titanic" narrative will be done for.
The Kemical Weapon has proved surprisingly durable. If only she were 20-30% less black, she might actually have a shot at being PM.
Kemi needs time, not skin lightening. The party needs to wait until voters' answer to every complaint is not ‘14 years of Tory misrule’.
There's definitely a racist effect, and one of the neat things about F3PTP is you can measure it.
Winning scores in Romford St Edward's (all Reform): Terry 1108 Martin 1075 Sathya 965
Oh, absolutely. In one of our 2-seat town council wards, Reform only stood one candidate, so there were quite a few ballot papers with votes for the Reform chap plus one of the Tories. Guess which Tory got the most votes: the experienced councillor with an Indian name or the callow youth with an Anglo-Saxon moniker?
P.S. I saw one ballot paper with two X's in the Reform guy's box. Nice try!
We must respond to the message that voters have sent us and break with the status quo once and for all. We must confront the big challenges the public face with real answers. That is how we will deliver the change that people are desperate for and build a stronger and fairer country.
Starmers best selling point pre GE was dull competency , leaving behind the Tory psychodramas .
I think the irritation amongst a section of the public is he delivered dull incompetency. He was never really liked but tolerated as a means to remove the Tories .
Personally I don’t get the level of hatred aimed towards him . It seems to be off the scale .
Nor do I. It's highly contrived. Not being very good should earn you indifference, even disdain, but hatred?
It’s absolutely not contrived. Because I feel it deep in me. An almost psychotic loathing and contempt. It’s a mix of many things - from his obvious treachery to his whining voice to his pathetic grasping greed - and it produces something toxic in his enemies (the British people)
Irrational? Perhaps. Overdone? Maybe. Contrived? No
And, for the record, and as I’ve said, I have centre left friends, who have exactly the same furious disdain, but for different reasons - eg they’re not at all angry about Chagos but they’re angry about his “island of strangers” speech, or his cowardice as a leader
If Burnham wants to win, my seat of Wythenshawe & Sale East still looks very viable, but this map is a very interesting view of how the politics of Greater Manchester ignores the local authorities and spans the communities...
Strange that Kemi has avoided the flak. The once mighty Tories have not only had the worst day of all the parties and are clearly going backwards but under her leadership are the ones most certain not to be in contention for anything in 2028-9.
Perhaps the newshounds are giving SKS a going over before they turn their guns on her? Surely her chances of surviving the year as leader must be very slim indeed?
Worst day of all parties? Labour lost c.58% of the seats it was defending. Conservatives lost c.42% of the seats they were defending.
And Labour lost its hegemony in Wales.
Kemi had a bad day. Starmer had a far worse one.
When we look at council byelections the Tory vote often holds up better at local level than national polling. To a greater degree than other parties voters make a distinction between Tory local government than national.
Add in that the Opposition should be making sweeping gains at this time in the Parliamentary cycle and things look very grim for the Tories in England. Scotland and Wales look even worse.
Birmingham Council is the one to watch. That is the sort of result that Parliament will have in 2029. Try to form a government from that!
Maybe. But a couple of years of local level chaos is going to give a lot of folk pause for thought. Do you want the UK to become Brum?
If the shine is coming off Reform, there's a lot of "small c" conservative voters going to think "what is best?".
I think that's optimistic. How many people know who their local council is run by or think it rather than Westminster is to blame for any issues?
Strange that Kemi has avoided the flak. The once mighty Tories have not only had the worst day of all the parties and are clearly going backwards but under her leadership are the ones most certain not to be in contention for anything in 2028-9.
Perhaps the newshounds are giving SKS a going over before they turn their guns on her? Surely her chances of surviving the year as leader must be very slim indeed?
Worst day of all parties? Labour lost c.58% of the seats it was defending. Conservatives lost c.42% of the seats they were defending.
And Labour lost its hegemony in Wales.
Kemi had a bad day. Starmer had a far worse one.
When we look at council byelections the Tory vote often holds up better at local level than national polling. To a greater degree than other parties voters make a distinction between Tory local government than national.
Add in that the Opposition should be making sweeping gains at this time in the Parliamentary cycle and things look very grim for the Tories in England. Scotland and Wales look even worse.
Birmingham Council is the one to watch. That is the sort of result that Parliament will have in 2029. Try to form a government from that!
Maybe. But a couple of years of local level chaos is going to give a lot of folk pause for thought. Do you want the UK to become Brum?
If the shine is coming off Reform, there's a lot of "small c" conservative voters going to think "what is best?".
The Tories won't merge with Reform. They won't do anything that appears to cement them together. But a pact on where they stand? Maybe. A carve up of the country as to where they don't stand against each other might happen. The refusal to do that in the past was to resist the claim that they are not a national party. But a party is nothing without power. A consolidated offering of the right versus Labour fighting Refom in its heartland seats but also getting a kicking from the Greens, Plaid, SNP... You could then see Labour losing 250 seats, maybe more.
I already expect a significant number of Labour seats to fall - they just don't feel like they ever were seats they could keep in a competitive election. And the next election is certainly going to be that.
But what follows a seat pact between the Tories and Reform? It must surely lead to a Reform/Con government - which would certainly cement them together in the public's eye.
Starmers best selling point pre GE was dull competency , leaving behind the Tory psychodramas .
I think the irritation amongst a section of the public is he delivered dull incompetency. He was never really liked but tolerated as a means to remove the Tories .
Personally I don’t get the level of hatred aimed towards him . It seems to be off the scale .
Maybe your hatred-o-meter needs recalibrating?
People - probably unwisely, as he is just a very underwhelming politician - trusted him with their hope that things would get better. Not just for themselves, but especially for their children. People are especially worried what the prospects will be for their kids. In a world of looming AI, youth unemployment is already on the rise under this Government. Many thought voting for Starmer would give their children a better shot at getting on in life. It is very obviously not panning out that way. Hence their disdain for him.
The strangest thing was both Labour and the Tories clinging onto the London life raft.
Without London it would have been a complete catastrophe for the Tories aswell.
What it highlights is the difference in the Tory voter in the capital and elsewhere .
I had the very same thought today. The two main parties have both become “London parties” - which is a big change for the country and absolutely catastrophic for Labour and Conservative
It’s also as predicted on the timeline of David Betz, the KCL academic who thinks civil strife is heading our way
The strangest thing was both Labour and the Tories clinging onto the London life raft.
Without London it would have been a complete catastrophe for the Tories aswell.
What it highlights is the difference in the Tory voter in the capital and elsewhere .
I had the very same thought today. The two main parties have both become “London parties” - which is a big change for the country and absolutely catastrophic for Labour and Conservative
It’s also as predicted on the timeline of David Betz, the KCL academic who thinks civil strife is heading our way
If they don't fix the bl**dy potholes there will be.
Starmers best selling point pre GE was dull competency , leaving behind the Tory psychodramas .
I think the irritation amongst a section of the public is he delivered dull incompetency. He was never really liked but tolerated as a means to remove the Tories .
Personally I don’t get the level of hatred aimed towards him . It seems to be off the scale .
People (Labour voters) are furious because they waited 14 years for a semi compassionate uncorrupt left of centre party who could as a minimum be relied on to do the decent thing and that's not what we ended up with. We ended up with someone without principle who would dispense with anyone to protect himself.
Strange that Kemi has avoided the flak. The once mighty Tories have not only had the worst day of all the parties and are clearly going backwards but under her leadership are the ones most certain not to be in contention for anything in 2028-9.
Perhaps the newshounds are giving SKS a going over before they turn their guns on her? Surely her chances of surviving the year as leader must be very slim indeed?
Worst day of all parties? Labour lost c.58% of the seats it was defending. Conservatives lost c.42% of the seats they were defending.
And Labour lost its hegemony in Wales.
Kemi had a bad day. Starmer had a far worse one.
When we look at council byelections the Tory vote often holds up better at local level than national polling. To a greater degree than other parties voters make a distinction between Tory local government than national.
Add in that the Opposition should be making sweeping gains at this time in the Parliamentary cycle and things look very grim for the Tories in England. Scotland and Wales look even worse.
Birmingham Council is the one to watch. That is the sort of result that Parliament will have in 2029. Try to form a government from that!
Maybe. But a couple of years of local level chaos is going to give a lot of folk pause for thought. Do you want the UK to become Brum?
If the shine is coming off Reform, there's a lot of "small c" conservative voters going to think "what is best?".
The Tories won't merge with Reform. They won't do anything that appears to cement them together. But a pact on where they stand? Maybe. A carve up of the country as to where they don't stand against each other might happen. The refusal to do that in the past was to resist the claim that they are not a national party. But a party is nothing without power. A consolidated offering of the right versus Labour fighting Refom in its heartland seats but also getting a kicking from the Greens, Plaid, SNP... You could then see Labour losing 250 seats, maybe more.
I already expect a significant number of Labour seats to fall - they just don't feel like they ever were seats they could keep in a competitive election. And the next election is certainly going to be that.
The "chaos in local government will discredit Reform/Greens/Gaza Independents" argument is one born of complacency. So many local government duties are set by national government that there is little to discredit them with.
Leics County Council has been Reform for a year and not noticeably more useless than usual, though we do have a particularly fine crop of potholes.
Of course, Parliament is different to Councils but in 3 years time there will be a cadre of Reform councillors that have some degree of understanding of how to run public services. Whether any of the competent ones get the chance to step up to be MPs or whether Farage just picke his yes-men may determine whether Reform can actually run a government.
If Burnham wants to win, my seat of Wythenshawe & Sale East still looks very viable, but this map is a very interesting view of how the politics of Greater Manchester ignores the local authorities and spans the communities...
Strange that Kemi has avoided the flak. The once mighty Tories have not only had the worst day of all the parties and are clearly going backwards but under her leadership are the ones most certain not to be in contention for anything in 2028-9.
Perhaps the newshounds are giving SKS a going over before they turn their guns on her? Surely her chances of surviving the year as leader must be very slim indeed?
Worst day of all parties? Labour lost c.58% of the seats it was defending. Conservatives lost c.42% of the seats they were defending.
And Labour lost its hegemony in Wales.
Kemi had a bad day. Starmer had a far worse one.
When we look at council byelections the Tory vote often holds up better at local level than national polling. To a greater degree than other parties voters make a distinction between Tory local government than national.
Add in that the Opposition should be making sweeping gains at this time in the Parliamentary cycle and things look very grim for the Tories in England. Scotland and Wales look even worse.
Birmingham Council is the one to watch. That is the sort of result that Parliament will have in 2029. Try to form a government from that!
Maybe. But a couple of years of local level chaos is going to give a lot of folk pause for thought. Do you want the UK to become Brum?
If the shine is coming off Reform, there's a lot of "small c" conservative voters going to think "what is best?".
The Tories won't merge with Reform. They won't do anything that appears to cement them together. But a pact on where they stand? Maybe. A carve up of the country as to where they don't stand against each other might happen. The refusal to do that in the past was to resist the claim that they are not a national party. But a party is nothing without power. A consolidated offering of the right versus Labour fighting Refom in its heartland seats but also getting a kicking from the Greens, Plaid, SNP... You could then see Labour losing 250 seats, maybe more.
I already expect a significant number of Labour seats to fall - they just don't feel like they ever were seats they could keep in a competitive election. And the next election is certainly going to be that.
But what follows a seat pact between the Tories and Reform? It must surely lead to a Reform/Con government?
Depends. If there are 200 seats with no Tory and 200 seats with no Reform...an improving Conservative Party can still win a majority.
The strangest thing was both Labour and the Tories clinging onto the London life raft.
Without London it would have been a complete catastrophe for the Tories aswell.
What it highlights is the difference in the Tory voter in the capital and elsewhere .
I had the very same thought today. The two main parties have both become “London parties” - which is a big change for the country and absolutely catastrophic for Labour and Conservative
It’s also as predicted on the timeline of David Betz, the KCL academic who thinks civil strife is heading our way
I would argue that the two main parties have been London parties for a good 30 years or so.
They have swept the board in Great Yarmouth where they were standing as "Great Yarmouth First", which was 9 seats and one extra in a by-election, so 10. They won them all.
There were 13 independents standing known to me as "support Restore UK" or similar (a number in Sheffield for some reason), and checking on those they all except one achieved under 2% of the vote.
Make of that what you can.
I know I’m a viewer in Scotland, but what the hell is Lowe’s appeal - Temu Farage, old school hang em & flog em Tory, a better tailor than Farage? On the Scottish what the fck has this to do with me amplifier, he’s a definite 11.
Starmers best selling point pre GE was dull competency , leaving behind the Tory psychodramas .
I think the irritation amongst a section of the public is he delivered dull incompetency. He was never really liked but tolerated as a means to remove the Tories .
Personally I don’t get the level of hatred aimed towards him . It seems to be off the scale .
People (Labour voters) are furious because they waited 14 years for a semi compassionate uncorrupt left of centre party who could as a minimum be relied on to do the decent thing and that's not what we ended up with. We ended up with someone without principle who would dispense with anyone to protect himself.
More importantly without the courage to implement a left of centre agenda, to deliver real change.
It has been a terrible let-down for those of us who want to see progressive change.
Strange that Kemi has avoided the flak. The once mighty Tories have not only had the worst day of all the parties and are clearly going backwards but under her leadership are the ones most certain not to be in contention for anything in 2028-9.
Perhaps the newshounds are giving SKS a going over before they turn their guns on her? Surely her chances of surviving the year as leader must be very slim indeed?
Worst day of all parties? Labour lost c.58% of the seats it was defending. Conservatives lost c.42% of the seats they were defending.
And Labour lost its hegemony in Wales.
Kemi had a bad day. Starmer had a far worse one.
When we look at council byelections the Tory vote often holds up better at local level than national polling. To a greater degree than other parties voters make a distinction between Tory local government than national.
Add in that the Opposition should be making sweeping gains at this time in the Parliamentary cycle and things look very grim for the Tories in England. Scotland and Wales look even worse.
Birmingham Council is the one to watch. That is the sort of result that Parliament will have in 2029. Try to form a government from that!
Maybe. But a couple of years of local level chaos is going to give a lot of folk pause for thought. Do you want the UK to become Brum?
If the shine is coming off Reform, there's a lot of "small c" conservative voters going to think "what is best?".
I think that's optimistic. How many people know who their local council is run by or think it rather than Westminster is to blame for any issues?
I think everybody knew who to blame for the chaos in Brum. Fuck-ups cut through like nothing else in politics.
One thing worth noting is that in the West Yorkshire authorities that had all-out elections, the third placed winner is having to defend their seat next year. So we might start to see Reform losses, while they are still making big gains in areas that only had a third up on Thursday.
The strangest thing was both Labour and the Tories clinging onto the London life raft.
Without London it would have been a complete catastrophe for the Tories aswell.
What it highlights is the difference in the Tory voter in the capital and elsewhere .
I had the very same thought today. The two main parties have both become “London parties” - which is a big change for the country and absolutely catastrophic for Labour and Conservative
It’s also as predicted on the timeline of David Betz, the KCL academic who thinks civil strife is heading our way
I would argue that the two main parties have been London parties for a good 30 years or so.
Despite her Grantham origins, Thatcher was very London focused. Her seat was there and she cared a lot about the City, and not much at all about the areas that we now know as the Red Wall.
If Burnham wants to win, my seat of Wythenshawe & Sale East still looks very viable, but this map is a very interesting view of how the politics of Greater Manchester ignores the local authorities and spans the communities...
I think on balance these results were every bit as bad for the Tories as they were for Labour. We generally don’t like our politicians or governments so parties in power for extended periods, such as 14 years, get hollowed out before they collapse. In opposition they need to rebuild their base. The Tories started off at a relatively low ebb for them and have gone sharply backwards, rendered insignificant in both Scotland and Wales. They have lost hundreds of the activists that should have helped them retake seats lost in 2024. With much less to lose they have lost plenty.
I don’t blame Kimi for this and I don’t think any other leader would have done better. The Tories are still at risk of failing to exist. This was not a step on the way back from the precipice.
Is it right that the Tories were at a relatively low ebb? I thought they did reasonably well last time these elections were contested?
Sometimes the public's reaction to a poiticial figures isn't even rational. Hague, Miliband, laughing stocks, Boris somehow managed to convince significant chunks (I bet even today) that he is one of them without ever really doing things that are normal e.g. even him going to the football, he looks like a posh twat at the football but a big chunk of the public were still going oh Boris, your so funny. Starmer, genuinely lives and breaths football, somehow gives off all the vibes he really faking it for the cameras.
Personally I don’t get the level of hatred aimed towards him . It seems to be off the scale .
Somebody on here, can't remember who, astutely pointed out that it's like bullying a kid at school. Once the pack mentality takes over, the fate is sealed and the facts are irrelevant or forgotten. People just love joining in a pile on. I remember we had this flabby ginger kid at school who was one of those weird gingers with the white eyelashes. I couldn't tell you why I used to fling his shoes onto the roof of the pav but I can tell you that I greatly enjoyed it.
Off thread, I was sent this yesterday - it was up in a doctor's in Chorlton. Clearly produced by AI and not even glanced at by real intelligence before being put up.
They have swept the board in Great Yarmouth where they were standing as "Great Yarmouth First", which was 9 seats and one extra in a by-election, so 10. They won them all.
There were 13 independents standing known to me as "support Restore UK" or similar (a number in Sheffield for some reason), and checking on those they all except one achieved under 2% of the vote.
Make of that what you can.
I know I’m a viewer in Scotland, but what the hell is Lowe’s appeal - Temu Farage, old school hang em & flog em Tory, a better tailor than Farage? On the Scottish what the fck has this to do with me amplifier, he’s a definite 11.
Starmers best selling point pre GE was dull competency , leaving behind the Tory psychodramas .
I think the irritation amongst a section of the public is he delivered dull incompetency. He was never really liked but tolerated as a means to remove the Tories .
Personally I don’t get the level of hatred aimed towards him . It seems to be off the scale .
I doubt whether it's actually hatred. That's a strong emotion. Mrs Thatcher was hated; we saw gangs of men full of hatred marching around shouting Thatcher out!
Seems much more likely that the general feeling towards SKS is mere irritation/dislike but amplified by social media.
Powell is asked if she can say categorically that Starmer will still be Labour leader in six months time, or if there will be a change.
"I don't think it should happen and I don't want it to happen," she says.
Challenged again, she says that predictions about a leadership change are "already being proven to be incorrect" and adds that "we don't do hostile takeovers in the Labour party".
Strange that Kemi has avoided the flak. The once mighty Tories have not only had the worst day of all the parties and are clearly going backwards but under her leadership are the ones most certain not to be in contention for anything in 2028-9.
Perhaps the newshounds are giving SKS a going over before they turn their guns on her? Surely her chances of surviving the year as leader must be very slim indeed?
Worst day of all parties? Labour lost c.58% of the seats it was defending. Conservatives lost c.42% of the seats they were defending.
And Labour lost its hegemony in Wales.
Kemi had a bad day. Starmer had a far worse one.
When we look at council byelections the Tory vote often holds up better at local level than national polling. To a greater degree than other parties voters make a distinction between Tory local government than national.
Add in that the Opposition should be making sweeping gains at this time in the Parliamentary cycle and things look very grim for the Tories in England. Scotland and Wales look even worse.
Birmingham Council is the one to watch. That is the sort of result that Parliament will have in 2029. Try to form a government from that!
Maybe. But a couple of years of local level chaos is going to give a lot of folk pause for thought. Do you want the UK to become Brum?
If the shine is coming off Reform, there's a lot of "small c" conservative voters going to think "what is best?".
I think that's optimistic. How many people know who their local council is run by or think it rather than Westminster is to blame for any issues?
I think everybody knew who to blame for the chaos in Brum. Fuck-ups cut through like nothing else in politics.
And fuck-ups with bins are impossible to ignore. There are plenty of good, decent, effective councillors who have lost their role this week for no better reason than the wrong rosette.
Birmingham's Labour councillors aren't among them.
There is an obvious line being drawn which some can’t / won’t recognise. The notion that “there are two sets of rules”. That Keith gets massive abuse even now for freebiegate and Farage just bats away all his late and missing donations - especially the £5m. And if you’re a candidate for not Reform God help you if you ever said anything bad. Reform? A literal Nazi or wife beater or worse? Nobody cares.
This is the fascinating development. Voters who have had enough of the system have decided that electing scum isn’t a problem as long as it’s their scum because the mainstream party candidates are also scum.
The strangest thing was both Labour and the Tories clinging onto the London life raft.
Without London it would have been a complete catastrophe for the Tories aswell.
What it highlights is the difference in the Tory voter in the capital and elsewhere .
I had the very same thought today. The two main parties have both become “London parties” - which is a big change for the country and absolutely catastrophic for Labour and Conservative
It’s also as predicted on the timeline of David Betz, the KCL academic who thinks civil strife is heading our way
There are parallels with the 70’s right now. Britain in decline, at least that’s the accepted wisdom. An unpopular labour government. Oil shocks. And at the start of the next decade civil strife with race riots across the country. But in reality there was a route out and a female Tory had the nerve to do the hard things and launched the nation onto a more prosperous path. Whoever succeeds Starmer, be they Labour or something else, they need to put the country on a different path. Managed decline is just so seventies and so unnecessary.
They have swept the board in Great Yarmouth where they were standing as "Great Yarmouth First", which was 9 seats and one extra in a by-election, so 10. They won them all.
There were 13 independents standing known to me as "support Restore UK" or similar (a number in Sheffield for some reason), and checking on those they all except one achieved under 2% of the vote.
Make of that what you can.
I know I’m a viewer in Scotland, but what the hell is Lowe’s appeal - Temu Farage, old school hang em & flog em Tory, a better tailor than Farage? On the Scottish what the fck has this to do with me amplifier, he’s a definite 11.
On the understanding thay he's a million miles away from my own political views I'll try to answer the question. He's a successful businessmen in something other than crypto who runs a football club. He doesn't take a Parliamentary salary which annoys his colleagues but goes down well with the public. He's very engaged on social media which appeals to the youth and gets him puffed up by thr Musk crowd. He hits all the populist talking points but has a more nuanced brain than Farage (he criticised Reform for wanting to mess around with Civil Service pensions if I recall). He seems to genuinely care about his constituency unlike Farage.
Starmers best selling point pre GE was dull competency , leaving behind the Tory psychodramas .
I think the irritation amongst a section of the public is he delivered dull incompetency. He was never really liked but tolerated as a means to remove the Tories .
Personally I don’t get the level of hatred aimed towards him . It seems to be off the scale .
I doubt whether it's actually hatred. That's a strong emotion. Mrs Thatcher was hated; we saw gangs of men full of hatred marching around shouting Thatcher out!
Seems much more likely that the general feeling towards SKS is mere irritation/dislike but amplified by social media.
I am sorry, it really is. Its not the media, its not social media, the public really hate him. Does he deserve it, its kinda of irrevelant, but they have decided they do. The focus groups, the polling and actual votes show time and time again he is absolutely toxic, far more than the Labour brand itself. Those going out door knocking for Labour have reported this and they hid him from all the campaigning and tried to minimise any mention of him.
Look at the results, Wales, that is Labour through and through, 12% of the vote. Scotland, SNP aren't massively popular, they still went SNP and voted bloody Reform as second option. And across the towns in the North of England absolute wipe outs. That takes a special kind of unpopularity.
Starmers best selling point pre GE was dull competency , leaving behind the Tory psychodramas .
I think the irritation amongst a section of the public is he delivered dull incompetency. He was never really liked but tolerated as a means to remove the Tories .
Personally I don’t get the level of hatred aimed towards him . It seems to be off the scale .
People (Labour voters) are furious because they waited 14 years for a semi compassionate uncorrupt left of centre party who could as a minimum be relied on to do the decent thing and that's not what we ended up with. We ended up with someone without principle who would dispense with anyone to protect himself.
More importantly without the courage to implement a left of centre agenda, to deliver real change.
It has been a terrible let-down for those of us who want to see progressive change.
A colossal Parliamentary majority and an agenda that looks like continuity with the last gasp of the previous Tory administration.
While that strategy worked for Tony Blair's first term, that's largely because the Tories were already doing the right thing in an improving economy by spring 1997. It's a disaster in 2024 after years of doing the wrong things in a worsening situation.
Coupled with a total failure to address any of the concerns of progressive voters (c.f. the disappointing list they present in their "see, we are doing things you're just ignoring us" moments).
They have swept the board in Great Yarmouth where they were standing as "Great Yarmouth First", which was 9 seats and one extra in a by-election, so 10. They won them all.
There were 13 independents standing known to me as "support Restore UK" or similar (a number in Sheffield for some reason), and checking on those they all except one achieved under 2% of the vote.
Make of that what you can.
I know I’m a viewer in Scotland, but what the hell is Lowe’s appeal - Temu Farage, old school hang em & flog em Tory, a better tailor than Farage? On the Scottish what the fck has this to do with me amplifier, he’s a definite 11.
On the understanding thay he's a million miles away from my own political views I'll try to answer the question. He's a successful businessmen in something other than crypto who runs a football club. He doesn't take a Parliamentary salary which annoys his colleagues but goes down well with the public. He's very engaged on social media which appeals to the youth and gets him puffed up by thr Musk crowd. He hits all the populist talking points but has a more nuanced brain than Farage (he criticised Reform for wanting to mess around with Civil Service pensions if I recall). He seems to genuinely care about his constituency unlike Farage.
He’s also good at t’telly. Comes across well in a certain gruff yet polite old school Tory way. No nonsense
Sometimes the public's reaction to a poiticial figures isn't even rational. Hague, Miliband, laughing stocks, Boris somehow managed to convince significant chunks (I bet even today) that he is one of them without ever really doing things that are normal e.g. even him going to the football, he looks like a posh twat at the football but a big chunk of the public were still going oh Boris, your so funny. Starmer, genuinely lives and breaths football, somehow gives off all the vibes he really faking it for the cameras.
Hague and Miliband looked, at the time, like geeks. Boris didn't.
Starmer famously said that if we didn't like the changes he made then the door is open. So Labour voters not liking the changes have left.
So the cause that got so many was the banning of Palestine Action recently shown to be thugs quite happy to hit police officers in the spine with sledge hammers. So the picture of a judge with a hammer hitting a protester is rather in apt.
Starmers best selling point pre GE was dull competency , leaving behind the Tory psychodramas .
I think the irritation amongst a section of the public is he delivered dull incompetency. He was never really liked but tolerated as a means to remove the Tories .
Personally I don’t get the level of hatred aimed towards him . It seems to be off the scale .
I doubt whether it's actually hatred. That's a strong emotion. Mrs Thatcher was hated; we saw gangs of men full of hatred marching around shouting Thatcher out!
Seems much more likely that the general feeling towards SKS is mere irritation/dislike but amplified by social media.
Madam, it is hatred. I know this because I feel it. Hatred
It’s rare that I “hate” anything. It’s a pretty negative emotion and generally a silly waste of moral energy. Nonetheless it’s what I feel for Skyr
And yes it has given me a belated insight into how and why people hated Thatcher (something I never truly understood before)
They have swept the board in Great Yarmouth where they were standing as "Great Yarmouth First", which was 9 seats and one extra in a by-election, so 10. They won them all.
There were 13 independents standing known to me as "support Restore UK" or similar (a number in Sheffield for some reason), and checking on those they all except one achieved under 2% of the vote.
Make of that what you can.
I know I’m a viewer in Scotland, but what the hell is Lowe’s appeal - Temu Farage, old school hang em & flog em Tory, a better tailor than Farage? On the Scottish what the fck has this to do with me amplifier, he’s a definite 11.
I think it is a mistake to view his success in one constituency where he is MP with any sort of wider appeal. My understanding is that he is very popular in his constituency and has a very effective ground game. Outside of that he is a YouTube personality popular with the Right and the MEGA crowd but with a very tiny reach in terms of national politics.
They have swept the board in Great Yarmouth where they were standing as "Great Yarmouth First", which was 9 seats and one extra in a by-election, so 10. They won them all.
There were 13 independents standing known to me as "support Restore UK" or similar (a number in Sheffield for some reason), and checking on those they all except one achieved under 2% of the vote.
Make of that what you can.
I know I’m a viewer in Scotland, but what the hell is Lowe’s appeal - Temu Farage, old school hang em & flog em Tory, a better tailor than Farage? On the Scottish what the fck has this to do with me amplifier, he’s a definite 11.
On the understanding thay he's a million miles away from my own political views I'll try to answer the question. He's a successful businessmen in something other than crypto who runs a football club. He doesn't take a Parliamentary salary which annoys his colleagues but goes down well with the public. He's very engaged on social media which appeals to the youth and gets him puffed up by thr Musk crowd. He hits all the populist talking points but has a more nuanced brain than Farage (he criticised Reform for wanting to mess around with Civil Service pensions if I recall). He seems to genuinely care about his constituency unlike Farage.
Thanks, that puts some meat on the bone. I’m getting a kind of Brian Aldridge vibe…
The strangest thing was both Labour and the Tories clinging onto the London life raft.
Without London it would have been a complete catastrophe for the Tories aswell.
What it highlights is the difference in the Tory voter in the capital and elsewhere .
I had the very same thought today. The two main parties have both become “London parties” - which is a big change for the country and absolutely catastrophic for Labour and Conservative
It’s also as predicted on the timeline of David Betz, the KCL academic who thinks civil strife is heading our way
There are parallels with the 70’s right now. Britain in decline, at least that’s the accepted wisdom. An unpopular labour government. Oil shocks. And at the start of the next decade civil strife with race riots across the country. But in reality there was a route out and a female Tory had the nerve to do the hard things and launched the nation onto a more prosperous path. Whoever succeeds Starmer, be they Labour or something else, they need to put the country on a different path. Managed decline is just so seventies and so unnecessary.
We tried the Thatcher cosplay act already. It was... interesting.
Off thread, I was sent this yesterday - it was up in a doctor's in Chorlton. Clearly produced by AI and not even glanced at by real intelligence before being put up.
I think on balance these results were every bit as bad for the Tories as they were for Labour. We generally don’t like our politicians or governments so parties in power for extended periods, such as 14 years, get hollowed out before they collapse. In opposition they need to rebuild their base. The Tories started off at a relatively low ebb for them and have gone sharply backwards, rendered insignificant in both Scotland and Wales. They have lost hundreds of the activists that should have helped them retake seats lost in 2024. With much less to lose they have lost plenty.
I don’t blame Kimi for this and I don’t think any other leader would have done better. The Tories are still at risk of failing to exist. This was not a step on the way back from the precipice.
Is it right that the Tories were at a relatively low ebb? I thought they did reasonably well last time these elections were contested?
If I'm right the previous elections for the English council seats were in 2022 in the middle of Partygate and the Tories lost over a third of their previous seats.
The strangest thing was both Labour and the Tories clinging onto the London life raft.
Without London it would have been a complete catastrophe for the Tories aswell.
What it highlights is the difference in the Tory voter in the capital and elsewhere .
I had the very same thought today. The two main parties have both become “London parties” - which is a big change for the country and absolutely catastrophic for Labour and Conservative
It’s also as predicted on the timeline of David Betz, the KCL academic who thinks civil strife is heading our way
There are parallels with the 70’s right now. Britain in decline, at least that’s the accepted wisdom. An unpopular labour government. Oil shocks. And at the start of the next decade civil strife with race riots across the country. But in reality there was a route out and a female Tory had the nerve to do the hard things and launched the nation onto a more prosperous path. Whoever succeeds Starmer, be they Labour or something else, they need to put the country on a different path. Managed decline is just so seventies and so unnecessary.
We tried the Thatcher cosplay act already. It was... interesting.
Except we didn’t try it. Too many people got spooked and to be fair there was little attaempt to sell the policies properly. The plan of the first Thatcher term was to squeeze the money supply in order to squeeze the evil of inflation out of the economy. It worked but was a tough medicine. Then the unions were bested. Then she went mad. But the first two were brilliant and needed. Right now the country (the western world?) needs to get growth. At least Truss was trying something different before the orthodoxy panicked.
So the two racist, anti-semitic, misogynistic, unprogressive culture war parties led by populist chancers and liars + their Celtic counterparts - the SNP & PC - did well.
Poor Britain.
How will the three traditional parties respond? Follow them down this unsavoury road or stand up for and demonstrate competent decency?
So the two racist, anti-semitic, misogynistic, unprogressive culture war parties led by populist chancers and liars + their Celtic counterparts - the SNP & PC - did well. This is what "change", even "real change" looks like.
Poor Britain.
How will the three traditional parties respond? Follow them down this unsavoury road or stand up for and demonstrate competent decency?
Strange that Kemi has avoided the flak. The once mighty Tories have not only had the worst day of all the parties and are clearly going backwards but under her leadership are the ones most certain not to be in contention for anything in 2028-9.
Perhaps the newshounds are giving SKS a going over before they turn their guns on her? Surely her chances of surviving the year as leader must be very slim indeed?
Worst day of all parties? Labour lost c.58% of the seats it was defending. Conservatives lost c.42% of the seats they were defending.
And Labour lost its hegemony in Wales.
Kemi had a bad day. Starmer had a far worse one.
Though there's the rebound effect. Right now, the Conservatives should be gaining seats and Labour should be losing them.
It is important to note how staggeringly bad it is for a first-term opposition to not even be making miniscule gains. Until now, there's basically always been the rebound effect, because the previous opposition overshoots right before a change in govt, leaving easy gains. Not anymore, apparently
There's just no way of reading it as anything but a failure. Miliband made rebound gains, Hague made rebound gains, Foot made rebound gains.
Didn't TSE say that the thing that might cause Conservatives MPs to give up on Kemi B would be her behaving as if the party had done well?
It's not that shocking that they've been reduced to nothing on Havering, but it's still pretty damn shocking. Even Labour kept a toehold in one (very atypical) ward.
The Rebound Effect is greatintwo-party politics. But not when you have a Shiny New Thing on both the right and the left. It's about taking the lesser hit - which is what Kemi delivered.
Look, the Tories aren't in a great place. Nobody can deny that. And they are weighed down by history. But given how shite this Government as shown itself to be - on the basis of getting power simply as "We are not the Tories" - then all options will be reviewed by the voters. Currently they are reviewing Reform and the Greens in the mix. They may also be found wanting.
Starmers best selling point pre GE was dull competency , leaving behind the Tory psychodramas .
I think the irritation amongst a section of the public is he delivered dull incompetency. He was never really liked but tolerated as a means to remove the Tories .
Personally I don’t get the level of hatred aimed towards him . It seems to be off the scale .
I doubt whether it's actually hatred. That's a strong emotion. Mrs Thatcher was hated; we saw gangs of men full of hatred marching around shouting Thatcher out!
Seems much more likely that the general feeling towards SKS is mere irritation/dislike but amplified by social media.
I am sorry, it really is. Its not the media, its not social media, the public really hate him. Does he deserve it, its kinda of irrevelant, but they have decided they do. The focus groups, the polling and actual votes show time and time again he is absolutely toxic, far more than the Labour brand itself. Those going out door knocking for Labour have reported this and they hid him from all the campaigning and tried to minimise any mention of him.
Look at the results, Wales, that is Labour through and through, 12% of the vote. Scotland, SNP aren't massively popular, they still went SNP and voted bloody Reform as second option. And across the towns in the North of England absolute wipe outs. That takes a special kind of unpopularity.
Labour and the left should accept this and indeed welcome it. Because it means that if they dump Skyr they will almost certainly get a bounce out of sheer public relief that he’s gone. They need to make sure he disappears entirely
But the longer they leave it the more he poisons the entire brand
Off thread, I was sent this yesterday - it was up in a doctor's in Chorlton. Clearly produced by AI and not even glanced at by real intelligence before being put up.
The strangest thing was both Labour and the Tories clinging onto the London life raft.
Without London it would have been a complete catastrophe for the Tories aswell.
What it highlights is the difference in the Tory voter in the capital and elsewhere .
I had the very same thought today. The two main parties have both become “London parties” - which is a big change for the country and absolutely catastrophic for Labour and Conservative
It’s also as predicted on the timeline of David Betz, the KCL academic who thinks civil strife is heading our way
There are parallels with the 70’s right now. Britain in decline, at least that’s the accepted wisdom. An unpopular labour government. Oil shocks. And at the start of the next decade civil strife with race riots across the country. But in reality there was a route out and a female Tory had the nerve to do the hard things and launched the nation onto a more prosperous path. Whoever succeeds Starmer, be they Labour or something else, they need to put the country on a different path. Managed decline is just so seventies and so unnecessary.
Now try doing it with worse demographics and no hydrocarbons.
The strangest thing was both Labour and the Tories clinging onto the London life raft.
Without London it would have been a complete catastrophe for the Tories aswell.
What it highlights is the difference in the Tory voter in the capital and elsewhere .
I had the very same thought today. The two main parties have both become “London parties” - which is a big change for the country and absolutely catastrophic for Labour and Conservative
It’s also as predicted on the timeline of David Betz, the KCL academic who thinks civil strife is heading our way
I would argue that the two main parties have been London parties for a good 30 years or so.
Despite her Grantham origins, Thatcher was very London focused. Her seat was there and she cared a lot about the City, and not much at all about the areas that we now know as the Red Wall.
Buried in Chelsea and if you visit the Chelsea Flower Show in the next few days you may be able to pay your respects/spit on her grave depending on your point of view.
Off thread, I was sent this yesterday - it was up in a doctor's in Chorlton. Clearly produced by AI and not even glanced at by real intelligence before being put up.
Surely AI would have NOT had the spelling mistake? I still laught at my cousins rendering of Chicken Kiev as Chicken Keiv (which autocorrect tried to correct)
There is an escape route for Labour from certain disaster at the general election: use their Commons majority to ram through PR. It’s cynical, + they’d never govern alone again, but it locks Reform out of No10. The left (Lab, Gr, LD) still have a majority over the right in the UK
OTOH, it would have broad support, since Farage has for many years been in favour of PR.
The strangest thing was both Labour and the Tories clinging onto the London life raft.
Without London it would have been a complete catastrophe for the Tories aswell.
What it highlights is the difference in the Tory voter in the capital and elsewhere .
I had the very same thought today. The two main parties have both become “London parties” - which is a big change for the country and absolutely catastrophic for Labour and Conservative
It’s also as predicted on the timeline of David Betz, the KCL academic who thinks civil strife is heading our way
I would argue that the two main parties have been London parties for a good 30 years or so.
Despite her Grantham origins, Thatcher was very London focused. Her seat was there and she cared a lot about the City, and not much at all about the areas that we now know as the Red Wall.
Buried in Chelsea and if you visit the Chelsea Flower Show in the next few days you may be able to pay your respects/spit on her grave depending on your point of view.
There is an obvious line being drawn which some can’t / won’t recognise. The notion that “there are two sets of rules”. That Keith gets massive abuse even now for freebiegate and Farage just bats away all his late and missing donations - especially the £5m. And if you’re a candidate for not Reform God help you if you ever said anything bad. Reform? A literal Nazi or wife beater or worse? Nobody cares.
This is the fascinating development. Voters who have had enough of the system have decided that electing scum isn’t a problem as long as it’s their scum because the mainstream party candidates are also scum.
One of the Reform councillors just elected has turned out to be a Holocaust denier and has been sacked. Meanwhile a Green councillor elected in Lambeth and arrested for possible incitement to racial hatred - the Green Party has done nothing.
Some of us do care about this stuff but too many voters, including some on here are perfectly fine with culture war issues so long as they are the ones they support.
There is an obvious line being drawn which some can’t / won’t recognise. The notion that “there are two sets of rules”. That Keith gets massive abuse even now for freebiegate and Farage just bats away all his late and missing donations - especially the £5m. And if you’re a candidate for not Reform God help you if you ever said anything bad. Reform? A literal Nazi or wife beater or worse? Nobody cares.
This is the fascinating development. Voters who have had enough of the system have decided that electing scum isn’t a problem as long as it’s their scum because the mainstream party candidates are also scum.
One of the Reform councillors just elected has turned out to be a Holocaust denier and has been sacked. Meanwhile a Green councillor elected in Lambeth and arrested for possible incitement to racial hatred - the Green Party has done nothing.
Some of us do care about this stuff but too many voters, including some on here are perfectly fine with culture war issues so long as they are the ones they support.
There is an obvious line being drawn which some can’t / won’t recognise. The notion that “there are two sets of rules”. That Keith gets massive abuse even now for freebiegate and Farage just bats away all his late and missing donations - especially the £5m. And if you’re a candidate for not Reform God help you if you ever said anything bad. Reform? A literal Nazi or wife beater or worse? Nobody cares.
This is the fascinating development. Voters who have had enough of the system have decided that electing scum isn’t a problem as long as it’s their scum because the mainstream party candidates are also scum.
One of the Reform councillors just elected has turned out to be a Holocaust denier and has been sacked. Meanwhile a Green councillor elected in Lambeth and arrested for possible incitement to racial hatred - the Green Party has done nothing.
Some of us do care about this stuff but too many voters, including some on here are perfectly fine with culture war issues so long as they are the ones they support.
The strangest thing was both Labour and the Tories clinging onto the London life raft.
Without London it would have been a complete catastrophe for the Tories aswell.
What it highlights is the difference in the Tory voter in the capital and elsewhere .
I had the very same thought today. The two main parties have both become “London parties” - which is a big change for the country and absolutely catastrophic for Labour and Conservative
It’s also as predicted on the timeline of David Betz, the KCL academic who thinks civil strife is heading our way
There are parallels with the 70’s right now. Britain in decline, at least that’s the accepted wisdom. An unpopular labour government. Oil shocks. And at the start of the next decade civil strife with race riots across the country. But in reality there was a route out and a female Tory had the nerve to do the hard things and launched the nation onto a more prosperous path. Whoever succeeds Starmer, be they Labour or something else, they need to put the country on a different path. Managed decline is just so seventies and so unnecessary.
Now try doing it with worse demographics and no hydrocarbons.
I’m not suggesting the approach needs to be the same, but at least Thatcher had a plan.
The strangest thing was both Labour and the Tories clinging onto the London life raft.
Without London it would have been a complete catastrophe for the Tories aswell.
What it highlights is the difference in the Tory voter in the capital and elsewhere .
I had the very same thought today. The two main parties have both become “London parties” - which is a big change for the country and absolutely catastrophic for Labour and Conservative
It’s also as predicted on the timeline of David Betz, the KCL academic who thinks civil strife is heading our way
I would argue that the two main parties have been London parties for a good 30 years or so.
Despite her Grantham origins, Thatcher was very London focused. Her seat was there and she cared a lot about the City, and not much at all about the areas that we now know as the Red Wall.
Buried in Chelsea and if you visit the Chelsea Flower Show in the next few days you may be able to pay your respects/spit on her grave depending on your point of view.
There is an obvious line being drawn which some can’t / won’t recognise. The notion that “there are two sets of rules”. That Keith gets massive abuse even now for freebiegate and Farage just bats away all his late and missing donations - especially the £5m. And if you’re a candidate for not Reform God help you if you ever said anything bad. Reform? A literal Nazi or wife beater or worse? Nobody cares.
This is the fascinating development. Voters who have had enough of the system have decided that electing scum isn’t a problem as long as it’s their scum because the mainstream party candidates are also scum.
One of the Reform councillors just elected has turned out to be a Holocaust denier and has been sacked. Meanwhile a Green councillor elected in Lambeth and arrested for possible incitement to racial hatred - the Green Party has done nothing.
Some of us do care about this stuff but too many voters, including some on here are perfectly fine with culture war issues so long as they are the ones they support.
The strangest thing was both Labour and the Tories clinging onto the London life raft.
Without London it would have been a complete catastrophe for the Tories aswell.
What it highlights is the difference in the Tory voter in the capital and elsewhere .
I had the very same thought today. The two main parties have both become “London parties” - which is a big change for the country and absolutely catastrophic for Labour and Conservative
It’s also as predicted on the timeline of David Betz, the KCL academic who thinks civil strife is heading our way
I would argue that the two main parties have been London parties for a good 30 years or so.
Despite her Grantham origins, Thatcher was very London focused. Her seat was there and she cared a lot about the City, and not much at all about the areas that we now know as the Red Wall.
Buried in Chelsea and if you visit the Chelsea Flower Show in the next few days you may be able to pay your respects/spit on her grave depending on your point of view.
There is an obvious line being drawn which some can’t / won’t recognise. The notion that “there are two sets of rules”. That Keith gets massive abuse even now for freebiegate and Farage just bats away all his late and missing donations - especially the £5m. And if you’re a candidate for not Reform God help you if you ever said anything bad. Reform? A literal Nazi or wife beater or worse? Nobody cares.
This is the fascinating development. Voters who have had enough of the system have decided that electing scum isn’t a problem as long as it’s their scum because the mainstream party candidates are also scum.
See Northern Ireland or the US. Polarisation works. Like bullying you have to be in or you are out.
They have swept the board in Great Yarmouth where they were standing as "Great Yarmouth First", which was 9 seats and one extra in a by-election, so 10. They won them all.
There were 13 independents standing known to me as "support Restore UK" or similar (a number in Sheffield for some reason), and checking on those they all except one achieved under 2% of the vote.
Make of that what you can.
I know I’m a viewer in Scotland, but what the hell is Lowe’s appeal - Temu Farage, old school hang em & flog em Tory, a better tailor than Farage? On the Scottish what the fck has this to do with me amplifier, he’s a definite 11.
Alan Clark, without the poncy self-restraint and the fake minor-nobility aspirations.
Off thread, I was sent this yesterday - it was up in a doctor's in Chorlton. Clearly produced by AI and not even glanced at by real intelligence before being put up.
The strangest thing was both Labour and the Tories clinging onto the London life raft.
Without London it would have been a complete catastrophe for the Tories aswell.
What it highlights is the difference in the Tory voter in the capital and elsewhere .
I had the very same thought today. The two main parties have both become “London parties” - which is a big change for the country and absolutely catastrophic for Labour and Conservative
It’s also as predicted on the timeline of David Betz, the KCL academic who thinks civil strife is heading our way
There are parallels with the 70’s right now. Britain in decline, at least that’s the accepted wisdom. An unpopular labour government. Oil shocks. And at the start of the next decade civil strife with race riots across the country. But in reality there was a route out and a female Tory had the nerve to do the hard things and launched the nation onto a more prosperous path. Whoever succeeds Starmer, be they Labour or something else, they need to put the country on a different path. Managed decline is just so seventies and so unnecessary.
We tried the Thatcher cosplay act already. It was... interesting.
Except we didn’t try it. Too many people got spooked and to be fair there was little attaempt to sell the policies properly. The plan of the first Thatcher term was to squeeze the money supply in order to squeeze the evil of inflation out of the economy. It worked but was a tough medicine. Then the unions were bested. Then she went mad. But the first two were brilliant and needed. Right now the country (the western world?) needs to get growth. At least Truss was trying something different before the orthodoxy panicked.
Truss put the cart before the horse. She cut taxes to grow the economy. Thatcher did the opposite. She put up taxes (doubling VAT from 8% to 15%) and put up interest rates in order to squeeze out inflation. She later on cut taxes using the benefit of that growth, and the North Sea Oil and Privatisation windfalls. There was the small issue of the destruction of British manufacturing by an overvalued pound and mass unemployment of course.
It is not a repeatable formula, not least because the challenges to the economy and potential windfalls from privatisation are very different to the Seventies and Early Eighties.
Off thread, I was sent this yesterday - it was up in a doctor's in Chorlton. Clearly produced by AI and not even glanced at by real intelligence before being put up.
Do you meam the spelling mistakes and contradictory slogans? That's what I mean. Knocked out by AI and then not checked. (This is not unique to AI - humans have been producing badly spelt signs for decades without AI). I am at two removes from the person who took the photo, so it could be a fake.
There is an obvious line being drawn which some can’t / won’t recognise. The notion that “there are two sets of rules”. That Keith gets massive abuse even now for freebiegate and Farage just bats away all his late and missing donations - especially the £5m. And if you’re a candidate for not Reform God help you if you ever said anything bad. Reform? A literal Nazi or wife beater or worse? Nobody cares.
This is the fascinating development. Voters who have had enough of the system have decided that electing scum isn’t a problem as long as it’s their scum because the mainstream party candidates are also scum.
One of the Reform councillors just elected has turned out to be a Holocaust denier and has been sacked. Meanwhile a Green councillor elected in Lambeth and arrested for possible incitement to racial hatred - the Green Party has done nothing.
Some of us do care about this stuff but too many voters, including some on here are perfectly fine with culture war issues so long as they are the ones they support.
Going to be plenty more...
Saiqa Ali has just been elected in Lambeth. Ali’s Instagram: a picture of the Earth suffocated by a giant serpent with the Star of David on its skin. She thinks that the British government includes too many ‘Zionists Jews’, and that Trump is ‘owned by Jews’
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Nevertheless, she won't go anywhere. Her ratings are getting better, and she's doing well at the moment.
Tories being largest party on, say, c.25% of the vote or more is a realistic target for the next election - if still a stretch one.
They have swept the board in Great Yarmouth where they were standing as "Great Yarmouth First", which was 9 seats and one extra in a by-election, so 10. They won them all.
There were 13 independents standing known to me as "support Restore UK" or similar (a number in Sheffield for some reason), and checking on those they all except one achieved under 2% of the vote.
Make of that what you can.
It is important to note how staggeringly bad it is for a first-term opposition to not even be making miniscule gains. Until now, there's basically always been the rebound effect, because the previous opposition overshoots right before a change in govt, leaving easy gains. Not anymore, apparently
There's just no way of reading it as anything but a failure. Miliband made rebound gains, Hague made rebound gains, Foot made rebound gains.
https://bsky.app/profile/dylandifford.bsky.social/post/3mleiiyqbms27
Didn't TSE say that the thing that might cause Conservatives MPs to give up on Kemi B would be her behaving as if the party had done well?
It's not that shocking that they've been reduced to nothing on Havering, but it's still pretty damn shocking. Even Labour kept a toehold in one (very atypical) ward.
Winning scores in Romford St Edward's (all Reform):
Terry 1108
Martin 1075
Sathya 965
I think the irritation amongst a section of the public is he delivered dull incompetency. He was never really liked but tolerated as a means to remove the Tories .
Personally I don’t get the level of hatred aimed towards him . It seems to be off the scale .
I suspect Starmer rightly pays for his defeat.
As a non-Tory, Badenoch surviving sits well with me. As someone who doesn't want a Reform Government she frightens a) because she is a far weaker candidate than Farage, and b) she would be happy to prop up a Reform Government.
We must respond to the message that voters have sent us and break with the status quo once and for all. We must confront the big challenges the public face with real answers. That is how we will deliver the change that people are desperate for and build a stronger and fairer country.
https://x.com/Keir_Starmer/status/2052992130713366999?s=20
* Reaction to Sunak was more eye rolling, little Rishi isn't out of his depth as a leader, but much more anger at the Tory party.
If the shine is coming off Reform, there's a lot of "small c" conservative voters going to think "what is best?".
The Tories won't merge with Reform. They won't do anything that appears to cement them together. But a pact on where they stand? Maybe. A carve up of the country as to where they don't stand against each other might happen. The refusal to do that in the past was to resist the claim that they are not a national party. But a party is nothing without power. A consolidated offering of the right versus Labour fighting Refom in its heartland seats but also getting a kicking from the Greens, Plaid, SNP... You could then see Labour losing 250 seats, maybe more.
I already expect a significant number of Labour seats to fall - they just don't feel like they ever were seats they could keep in a competitive election. And the next election is certainly going to be that.
I don’t blame Kimi for this and I don’t think any other leader would have done better. The Tories are still at risk of failing to exist. This was not a step on the way back from the precipice.
P.S. I saw one ballot paper with two X's in the Reform guy's box. Nice try!
Kemi highlighting a few boroughs in and around London is burying her head in the sand.
Irrational? Perhaps. Overdone? Maybe. Contrived? No
And, for the record, and as I’ve said, I have centre left friends, who have exactly the same furious disdain, but for different reasons - eg they’re not at all angry about Chagos but they’re angry about his “island of strangers” speech, or his cowardice as a leader
https://scontent-fra3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/694811911_1504799818324183_1642815738703120158_n.jpg?_nc_cat=105&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=7b2446&_nc_ohc=rKgjOGJ5gUEQ7kNvwEupjY4&_nc_oc=AdqL6V_7W00sovX4RL1kbMjIuGfCeRzYHzJ9uUBeh-RB_cHzW6grOTxeVR9OG9qA68s&_nc_zt=23&_nc_ht=scontent-fra3-1.xx&_nc_gid=6AAyIvJbSo4fJpZXWV5tYg&_nc_ss=7b2a8&oh=00_Af7JW5Fjuhm2qRd-Ybe8MyjIV05nSGOASG6EAKzyothYqA&oe=6A04C955
It’s quite an achievement, in its own way
Without London it would have been a complete catastrophe for the Tories aswell.
What it highlights is the difference in the Tory voter in the capital and elsewhere .
People - probably unwisely, as he is just a very underwhelming politician - trusted him with their hope that things would get better. Not just for themselves, but especially for their children. People are especially worried what the prospects will be for their kids. In a world of looming AI, youth unemployment is already on the rise under this Government. Many thought voting for Starmer would give their children a better shot at getting on in life. It is very obviously not panning out that way. Hence their disdain for him.
It’s also as predicted on the timeline of David Betz, the KCL academic who thinks civil strife is heading our way
The EU reset needs to move up a gear and he needs to pick a fight with Farage over it . Chasing Reform voters has got Labour no where .
Leics County Council has been Reform for a year and not noticeably more useless than usual, though we do have a particularly fine crop of potholes.
Of course, Parliament is different to Councils but in 3 years time there will be a cadre of Reform councillors that have some degree of understanding of how to run public services. Whether any of the competent ones get the chance to step up to be MPs or whether Farage just picke his yes-men may determine whether Reform can actually run a government.
It has been a terrible let-down for those of us who want to see progressive change.
https://x.com/benhoobs/status/2052872603954487751?s=46
Seems much more likely that the general feeling towards SKS is mere irritation/dislike but amplified by social media.
"I don't think it should happen and I don't want it to happen," she says.
Challenged again, she says that predictions about a leadership change are "already being proven to be incorrect" and adds that "we don't do hostile takeovers in the Labour party".
Birmingham's Labour councillors aren't among them.
This is the fascinating development. Voters who have had enough of the system have decided that electing scum isn’t a problem as long as it’s their scum because the mainstream party candidates are also scum.
Whoever succeeds Starmer, be they Labour or something else, they need to put the country on a different path. Managed decline is just so seventies and so unnecessary.
He's a successful businessmen in something other than crypto who runs a football club. He doesn't take a Parliamentary salary which annoys his colleagues but goes down well with the public. He's very engaged on social media which appeals to the youth and gets him puffed up by thr Musk crowd. He hits all the populist talking points but has a more nuanced brain than Farage (he criticised Reform for wanting to mess around with Civil Service pensions if I recall). He seems to genuinely care about his constituency unlike Farage.
Look at the results, Wales, that is Labour through and through, 12% of the vote. Scotland, SNP aren't massively popular, they still went SNP and voted bloody Reform as second option. And across the towns in the North of England absolute wipe outs. That takes a special kind of unpopularity.
While that strategy worked for Tony Blair's first term, that's largely because the Tories were already doing the right thing in an improving economy by spring 1997. It's a disaster in 2024 after years of doing the wrong things in a worsening situation.
Coupled with a total failure to address any of the concerns of progressive voters (c.f. the disappointing list they present in their "see, we are doing things you're just ignoring us" moments).
It is no wonder they are collapsing.
Unfair, but there we are.
Lesson - don't elect leaders who look like geeks.
More urban wards today.
It’s rare that I “hate” anything. It’s a pretty negative emotion and generally a silly waste of moral energy. Nonetheless it’s what I feel for Skyr
And yes it has given me a belated insight into how and why people hated Thatcher (something I never truly understood before)
So it doesn’t matter if he does a big reshuffle and stamps his authority and launches a massive new program to give people what they want.
Remember - your policies can be popular even if they hate you. Ask Corbyn
Look more closely at the photo
Poor Britain.
How will the three traditional parties respond? Follow them down this unsavoury road or stand up for and demonstrate competent decency?
Knowing our luck, it will be the former.
Poor Britain.
How will the three traditional parties respond? Follow them down this unsavoury road or stand up for and demonstrate competent decency?
Knowing our luck, it will be the former.
Look, the Tories aren't in a great place. Nobody can deny that. And they are weighed down by history. But given how shite this Government as shown itself to be - on the basis of getting power simply as "We are not the Tories" - then all options will be reviewed by the voters. Currently they are reviewing Reform and the Greens in the mix. They may also be found wanting.
But the longer they leave it the more he poisons the entire brand
Some of us do care about this stuff but too many voters, including some on here are perfectly fine with culture war issues so long as they are the ones they support.
Some of us do care about this stuff but too many voters, including some on here are perfectly fine with culture war issues so long as they are the ones they support.
Some of us do care about this stuff but too many voters, including some on here are perfectly fine with culture war issues so long as they are the ones they support.
Some of us do care about this stuff but too many voters, including some on here are perfectly fine with culture war issues so long as they are the ones they support.
https://x.com/almostoneword/status/1644637327195611136?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
It is not a repeatable formula, not least because the challenges to the economy and potential windfalls from privatisation are very different to the Seventies and Early Eighties.
I am at two removes from the person who took the photo, so it could be a fake.
Saiqa Ali has just been elected in Lambeth. Ali’s Instagram: a picture of the Earth suffocated by a giant serpent with the Star of David on its skin. She thinks that the British government includes too many ‘Zionists Jews’, and that Trump is ‘owned by Jews’
https://x.com/treesey/status/2052862717648572814?s=20