Still waiting for the final regional result from the Highlands and Islands which seems to be taking an age to come through .
It’s close for second between Labour and Reform, 17 v 15 . Unless the Tories pick up 3 this will be their worst ever result , they’re currently on 11 .
If you really really want Starmer gone then the quickest way would be to vote for Andy Burnham in any by election. Voting against him would be voting to keep Starmer.
Yes. So in principle Burnham would win a by-election in most Labour seats on that basis.
But could he campaign for election as the official Labour candidate on the basis of replacing the Prime Minister? Would ministers be able to campaign for him on that basis? Would he be able to campaign on the basis of repudiating the policies of Starmer's government?
Maybe there would be a nudge, nudge, wink, wink, element to it, but there's potential for Burnham to get tied up in knots over it.
Are we all excited for Starmer reboot #8395969 on Monday...I am the change.
I would normally be in favour of that but rebooting what? It’s not like he’s got some secret ideas down the sofa.
I could just about buy the logic of “he’s very unpopular but doing necessary things they hurt and he’ll not be leader at the next election so somebody better will take over” but he’s not doing ANYTHING.
Following various bits of coverage today, including a good deal of apocalyptic/gloating/catastrophist analysis, I am struck by one thing particularly, a thing which is IMHO relevant both to the future political trajectory and betting prospects. It is this.
Almost no attention is given to the significance of the fact that 74% of those who voted didn't vote for Reform.
Are we all excited for Starmer reboot #8395969 on Monday...I am the change.
I would normally be in favour of that but rebooting what? It’s not like he’s got some secret ideas down the sofa.
I could just about buy the logic of “he’s very unpopular but doing necessary things they hurt and he’ll not be leader at the next election so somebody better will take over” but he’s not doing ANYTHING.
Whatever vision Brown had at one point, it had gone by the time he reached PM. He’d spent so long trying to get there that he then had no idea what to do with it.
Kirklees back in the second half of counting sits at:
Reform 21 (+21) Ind 9 (+4) Grn 6 (+3) LD 5 (-5) Con 4 (-5) Lab 0 (-18)
At least 11 more non Reform needed, probably significantly more, but they are winning the 50/50 calls at the moment.
All non Reform parties need to treat Reform and Farage with the contempt they deserve. Labour have given them a free ride and the Conservatives have as good as endorsed them.
They are not working class heros they are friends of our enemies.
If we discount Gaza Indies it is 21-21 at the moment.
Squeaky bum time.
Ref 22, Ind 12 (6 Gaza, 3 Left, 3 Local), Grn 6, Con 6, LD 5
To declare: Denby Dale, Holme Valley Sth - Con/Ref battles Crosland Moor - likely Green Colne Valley West - Reform, slight Lab chance Ashbrow - best Lab chance, Reform poss Dewsbury S - probable Gaza
Crosland Moor delivers: 22 - 26(+6)
And Reform are the filling between 2 Gazans in Dewsbury South.
23-26(+8)
Ashbrow was being targeted a bit and goes Green. Labour look at wipeout:
23-29(+8)
What does that figure you keep updating actually mean?
Reform Vs others (and treat Gaza Independents separately). That last Green win means Reform cannot get a majority, so we're confirmed NOC.
Nearly there on the self-referential nesting
Holme Valley South splits 1 Tory, 2 Reform. And the bath of water rolls down the hill a little more:
I was having a little look at the Betfair list of next Labour leader.
I'll skip over Burnham, Raynor and Streeting as they've been done to death. All have their own flaws, whether it's not being an MP, tax affairs or being close to Mandelson.
Next you have Ed Miliband. I don't think he's the worst choice. There's presumably no new dirt on him given how long he's been at the top of politics. Yes he lost in 2015 but he only lost 26 seats and ended up with 232 - which I'd say is a great outcome for Labour right now. He would also be well placed to defend against the Green surge.
After that, Mahmood. Now I know she might defend against the Reform flank, but does she seriously stand a chance of winning with Labour members? No, there's a reason Blue Labour has not led in decades. Home Secretary is the peak of her political summit.
Next, Cooper. The safe, boring choice. Except for the fact Starmer was meant to be the safe, boring choice and we can all see how that's turned out. No, I don't think you get sick of porridge every morning then decide to have Oatabix instead. It's all just oats. The only way I can see her leading is if all other options self combust.
Then we have Alastair Carns. Which leads me to ask - who? Who is this person that I don't recognise them while regularly reading PB? Is he any good? Because when the favourites are all so middling, finding someone new isn't necessarily the worst idea.
Banter bans. Reporting 3 yr olds for hate crimes. Throwing money at the EU. Choking out the economy. An explosion of petty crime. Freezing Grannies. Closing refineries in the UK, opening refineries elsewhere. Rampant petty lawlessness.
In Wales I think it is significant that Plaid Cymru have 43 seats, and the Tories and Reform combined have 41.
This means that for Plaid Cymru to be defeated in votes would require Labour voting with the Tories and Reform. So I'd expect Plaid to be able to govern without a formal deal.
Not a single word of rebellion from within Tory ranks as far as I can see. Considering the score that’s mad. But it just shows how important expectation management is.
Tories have done best in wealthy traditionalist bastions, and urban spots where they find the Roderick Spodes a bit uncouth. Reform has the national populist bloc-vote sewn up. So going trad and small c conservative is probably their brand now. The BigG and HYUFD voter. Kemi doesn’t really fit that brand - too online, too MAGA - but it seems not to matter.
Kirklees back in the second half of counting sits at:
Reform 21 (+21) Ind 9 (+4) Grn 6 (+3) LD 5 (-5) Con 4 (-5) Lab 0 (-18)
At least 11 more non Reform needed, probably significantly more, but they are winning the 50/50 calls at the moment.
All non Reform parties need to treat Reform and Farage with the contempt they deserve. Labour have given them a free ride and the Conservatives have as good as endorsed them.
They are not working class heros they are friends of our enemies.
If we discount Gaza Indies it is 21-21 at the moment.
Squeaky bum time.
Ref 22, Ind 12 (6 Gaza, 3 Left, 3 Local), Grn 6, Con 6, LD 5
To declare: Denby Dale, Holme Valley Sth - Con/Ref battles Crosland Moor - likely Green Colne Valley West - Reform, slight Lab chance Ashbrow - best Lab chance, Reform poss Dewsbury S - probable Gaza
Crosland Moor delivers: 22 - 26(+6)
And Reform are the filling between 2 Gazans in Dewsbury South.
23-26(+8)
Ashbrow was being targeted a bit and goes Green. Labour look at wipeout:
23-29(+8)
What does that figure you keep updating actually mean?
Reform Vs others (and treat Gaza Independents separately). That last Green win means Reform cannot get a majority, so we're confirmed NOC.
Nearly there on the self-referential nesting
Holme Valley South splits 1 Tory, 2 Reform. And the bath of water rolls down the hill a little more:
25 Reform - 30 mainstream - 8 Gazans
Two to go.
Colne Valley West goes Reform. Labour missed out by 28 votes because the Slawit bearded men's yoga class was on last night.
28 Reform - 30 mainstreams - 8 Gazans.
Denby Dale to go. Association with pies, so after Wigan it's not looking good.
Are we all excited for Starmer reboot #8395969 on Monday...I am the change.
I would normally be in favour of that but rebooting what? It’s not like he’s got some secret ideas down the sofa.
I could just about buy the logic of “he’s very unpopular but doing necessary things they hurt and he’ll not be leader at the next election so somebody better will take over” but he’s not doing ANYTHING.
The other danger is that if he's willing to pick up a good idea from someone else, the public opinion of that idea will crater as soon as Starmer advocates for it. Your great policy idea dies as soon as Starmer touches it.
Banter bans. Reporting 3 yr olds for hate crimes. Throwing money at the EU. Choking out the economy. An explosion of petty crime. Freezing Grannies. Closing refineries in the UK, opening refineries elsewhere. Rampant petty lawlessness.
FURTHER AND FASTER.
Just listening to a podcast from Peter Hitchens and Sarah Vine in which Hitchens states that Starmer has got things done; ruined private schooling, attempting to get rid of jury trials… I might add he almost got assisted dying through, scrapped the two child cap… he has done, or attempted to do, some things
Are we all excited for Starmer reboot #8395969 on Monday...I am the change.
I would normally be in favour of that but rebooting what? It’s not like he’s got some secret ideas down the sofa.
I could just about buy the logic of “he’s very unpopular but doing necessary things they hurt and he’ll not be leader at the next election so somebody better will take over” but he’s not doing ANYTHING.
The other danger is that if he's willing to pick up a good idea from someone else, the public opinion of that idea will crater as soon as Starmer advocates for it. Your great policy idea dies as soon as Starmer touches it.
He could do some good then by advocating some deliberately terrible policies, like NIMBYism, and do wonders in convincing the public to support an actually helpful policy.
Following various bits of coverage today, including a good deal of apocalyptic/gloating/catastrophist analysis, I am struck by one thing particularly, a thing which is IMHO relevant both to the future political trajectory and betting prospects. It is this.
Almost no attention is given to the significance of the fact that 74% of those who voted didn't vote for Reform.
Jesus. What an amazing insight fron the fucking drooling old idiot who is so terrified of Reform he calls them “far right”
Banter bans. Reporting 3 yr olds for hate crimes. Throwing money at the EU. Choking out the economy. An explosion of petty crime. Freezing Grannies. Closing refineries in the UK, opening refineries elsewhere. Rampant petty lawlessness.
FURTHER AND FASTER.
Just listening to a podcast from Peter Hitchens and Sarah Vine in which Hitchens states that Starmer has got things done; ruined private schooling, attempting to get rid of jury trials… I might add he almost got assisted dying through, scrapped the two child cap… he has done, or attempted to do, some things
Yes. And let's not forget Chagos. Everyone says 'he came in without a plan' - no, he absolutely had a plan. It just wasn't a plan you could advertise beforehand, because it was ugly and sinister.
I was having a little look at the Betfair list of next Labour leader.
I'll skip over Burnham, Raynor and Streeting as they've been done to death. All have their own flaws, whether it's not being an MP, tax affairs or being close to Mandelson.
Next you have Ed Miliband. I don't think he's the worst choice. There's presumably no new dirt on him given how long he's been at the top of politics. Yes he lost in 2015 but he only lost 26 seats and ended up with 232 - which I'd say is a great outcome for Labour right now. He would also be well placed to defend against the Green surge.
After that, Mahmood. Now I know she might defend against the Reform flank, but does she seriously stand a chance of winning with Labour members? No, there's a reason Blue Labour has not led in decades. Home Secretary is the peak of her political summit.
Next, Cooper. The safe, boring choice. Except for the fact Starmer was meant to be the safe, boring choice and we can all see how that's turned out. No, I don't think you get sick of porridge every morning then decide to have Oatabix instead. It's all just oats. The only way I can see her leading is if all other options self combust.
Then we have Alastair Carns. Which leads me to ask - who? Who is this person that I don't recognise them while regularly reading PB? Is he any good? Because when the favourites are all so middling, finding someone new isn't necessarily the worst idea.
Ex Military MP for Selly Oak (Brum) and iirc a junior defence minister.
Been v active on ye olde X of late which is partly why some have been punting him
Following various bits of coverage today, including a good deal of apocalyptic/gloating/catastrophist analysis, I am struck by one thing particularly, a thing which is IMHO relevant both to the future political trajectory and betting prospects. It is this.
Almost no attention is given to the significance of the fact that 74% of those who voted didn't vote for Reform.
Because it's not that relevant.
We've seen from plenty of polling evidence, and by-elections, that most Tory voters are very happy to vote for Reform to try to defeat a party of the Left. So there isn't a 3:1 anti-Reform voting bloc anywhere but in your imagination.
Instead the country is roughly split 50:50 between right and left.
Kirklees back in the second half of counting sits at:
Reform 21 (+21) Ind 9 (+4) Grn 6 (+3) LD 5 (-5) Con 4 (-5) Lab 0 (-18)
At least 11 more non Reform needed, probably significantly more, but they are winning the 50/50 calls at the moment.
All non Reform parties need to treat Reform and Farage with the contempt they deserve. Labour have given them a free ride and the Conservatives have as good as endorsed them.
They are not working class heros they are friends of our enemies.
If we discount Gaza Indies it is 21-21 at the moment.
Squeaky bum time.
Ref 22, Ind 12 (6 Gaza, 3 Left, 3 Local), Grn 6, Con 6, LD 5
To declare: Denby Dale, Holme Valley Sth - Con/Ref battles Crosland Moor - likely Green Colne Valley West - Reform, slight Lab chance Ashbrow - best Lab chance, Reform poss Dewsbury S - probable Gaza
Crosland Moor delivers: 22 - 26(+6)
And Reform are the filling between 2 Gazans in Dewsbury South.
23-26(+8)
Ashbrow was being targeted a bit and goes Green. Labour look at wipeout:
23-29(+8)
What does that figure you keep updating actually mean?
Reform Vs others (and treat Gaza Independents separately). That last Green win means Reform cannot get a majority, so we're confirmed NOC.
Nearly there on the self-referential nesting
Holme Valley South splits 1 Tory, 2 Reform. And the bath of water rolls down the hill a little more:
25 Reform - 30 mainstream - 8 Gazans
Two to go.
Colne Valley West goes Reform. Labour missed out by 28 votes because the Slawit bearded men's yoga class was on last night.
28 Reform - 30 mainstreams - 8 Gazans.
Denby Dale to go. Association with pies, so after Wigan it's not looking good.
I was having a little look at the Betfair list of next Labour leader.
I'll skip over Burnham, Raynor and Streeting as they've been done to death. All have their own flaws, whether it's not being an MP, tax affairs or being close to Mandelson.
Next you have Ed Miliband. I don't think he's the worst choice. There's presumably no new dirt on him given how long he's been at the top of politics. Yes he lost in 2015 but he only lost 26 seats and ended up with 232 - which I'd say is a great outcome for Labour right now. He would also be well placed to defend against the Green surge.
After that, Mahmood. Now I know she might defend against the Reform flank, but does she seriously stand a chance of winning with Labour members? No, there's a reason Blue Labour has not led in decades. Home Secretary is the peak of her political summit.
Next, Cooper. The safe, boring choice. Except for the fact Starmer was meant to be the safe, boring choice and we can all see how that's turned out. No, I don't think you get sick of porridge every morning then decide to have Oatabix instead. It's all just oats. The only way I can see her leading is if all other options self combust.
Then we have Alastair Carns. Which leads me to ask - who? Who is this person that I don't recognise them while regularly reading PB? Is he any good? Because when the favourites are all so middling, finding someone new isn't necessarily the worst idea.
Every new leader is a reaction to the flaws of the previous leader.
Labour will therefore choose charisma, which means Rayner.
I still don't get why that absolute muppet Glasman was given the time of day. First thing Starmer's successor needs to do is expel Glasman from the party. Besides which, attempting to do Blue Labour with Starmer was the equivalent of Nottingham Forest appointing Big Ange. Really not the bloke you wanted as 'manager' if that was your strategy.
McSweeney hates the Labour Left (not a secret) so I assume he thought "my enemy's enemy is my friend" and got Blue Labour in. That went well.
Malcolm Offord gets elected to the Scottish Parliament on the regional list, so Reform will have parliamentary leadership in Scotland and Wales as well as Westminster.
It does seem that the logic in Labour is to try and have a coronation of Burnham or to engineer one. That would not be the dumbest idea.
I don't they need a coronation, they just need to find him a seat to stand in.
He'll get elected as the anti-Starmer left will rally around him in any sensible seat.
MPs and members will vote for him as the alternatives are worse.
... So the real challenge is working out how to get the Labour NEC to let him stand as MP when doing so guarantees Starmer being ousted. God knows how to achieve that.
Malcolm Offord gets elected to the Scottish Parliament on the regional list, so Reform will have parliamentary leadership in Scotland and Wales as well as Westminster.
Not a single word of rebellion from within Tory ranks as far as I can see. Considering the score that’s mad. But it just shows how important expectation management is.
Tories have done best in wealthy traditionalist bastions, and urban spots where they find the Roderick Spodes a bit uncouth. Reform has the national populist bloc-vote sewn up. So going trad and small c conservative is probably their brand now. The BigG and HYUFD voter. Kemi doesn’t really fit that brand - too online, too MAGA - but it seems not to matter.
Would Badenoch lose her own Essex seat on yesterday's results?
There is an escape route for Labour from certain disaster at the general election: use their Commons majority to ram through PR. It’s cynical, + they’d never govern alone again, but it locks Reform out of No10. The left (Lab, Gr, LD) still have a majority over the right in the UK
I was having a little look at the Betfair list of next Labour leader.
I'll skip over Burnham, Raynor and Streeting as they've been done to death. All have their own flaws, whether it's not being an MP, tax affairs or being close to Mandelson.
Next you have Ed Miliband. I don't think he's the worst choice. There's presumably no new dirt on him given how long he's been at the top of politics. Yes he lost in 2015 but he only lost 26 seats and ended up with 232 - which I'd say is a great outcome for Labour right now. He would also be well placed to defend against the Green surge.
After that, Mahmood. Now I know she might defend against the Reform flank, but does she seriously stand a chance of winning with Labour members? No, there's a reason Blue Labour has not led in decades. Home Secretary is the peak of her political summit.
Next, Cooper. The safe, boring choice. Except for the fact Starmer was meant to be the safe, boring choice and we can all see how that's turned out. No, I don't think you get sick of porridge every morning then decide to have Oatabix instead. It's all just oats. The only way I can see her leading is if all other options self combust.
Then we have Alastair Carns. Which leads me to ask - who? Who is this person that I don't recognise them while regularly reading PB? Is he any good? Because when the favourites are all so middling, finding someone new isn't necessarily the worst idea.
You've summed up the problem well. I look at the options, as someone who could be persuaded to vote Labour, and I can't really see anyone who makes me go - "they will be much better than Starmer"
I think Burnham is over-rated, especially by himself. He might offer better communication, but his sole qualification to me seems to be that he wants to be PM. We've had someone who thought that before (Johnson). I don't see what policy he is proposing. He was a poor minister. He is weak - he didn't resign from Corbyn's shadow cabinet when everyone else did because he didn't want to risk becoming Manchester Mayor. His judgement is poor - if he really wanted to be PM he would have stood for Parliament at the last election. He's missed his chance.
Streeting is a good communicator and seems to have some vision but is too right-wing for me (and I usually vote LD). Mahmood even more so - too authoritarian certainly. Cooper is identikit Starmer but female. All the other names down the list - who?
That leaves Rayner and Miliband. I think one of them is the only realistic choice. Rayner has authenticity, conviction and probably the best political sensitivity of any candidate. I think also she is personally too flawed (I don't like her much FWIW), too left-wing and the press will monster her so we will never find out if she could do the job. That leaves Miliband - he has the experience, he is the one minister who has hit the ground running and achieved something. He is ruthless enough to do the job but seems affable enough if a bit weird still. I suspect he might surprise on the upside, or be a disaster, but by the process of elimination is the only one who could do the job.
Would I choose him over Starmer? Don't know. But I know I wouldn't choose any of the others. Luckily I'm not a Labour member so I don't have to decide!
I still don't get why that absolute muppet Glasman was given the time of day. First thing Starmer's successor needs to do is expel Glasman from the party. Besides which, attempting to do Blue Labour with Starmer was the equivalent of Nottingham Forest appointing Big Ange. Really not the bloke you wanted as 'manager' if that was your strategy.
McSweeney hates the Labour Left (not a secret) so I assume he thought "my enemy's enemy is my friend" and got Blue Labour in. That went well.
Given that the only Minister in the entire Government who has even approached good performance is part of that faction, I don't altogether understand the sarcasm. Are you suggesting that less non-shit people would work better?
There is an escape route for Labour from certain disaster at the general election: use their Commons majority to ram through PR. It’s cynical, + they’d never govern alone again, but it locks Reform out of No10. The left (Lab, Gr, LD) still have a majority over the right in the UK
I think you’d need a dreaded referendum for that kind of change ! Trying to do that with the current majority when it wasn’t in the manifesto would look incredibly cynical even by today’s political standards .
“Keir Starmer is under pressure to set out a timeline for his departure after a crushing defeat in elections across Britain prompted senior Labour MPs to call for him to step down within a year.
In a disastrous set of results, Labour had lost control of more than 25 councils and almost 1,000 council seats in England by Friday evening, many to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, which made large gains across the Midlands and the north as well as taking seats from the Tories in the south.”
How long can he resist this intense negative pressure?
Malcolm Offord gets elected to the Scottish Parliament on the regional list, so Reform will have parliamentary leadership in Scotland and Wales as well as Westminster.
There is an escape route for Labour from certain disaster at the general election: use their Commons majority to ram through PR. It’s cynical, + they’d never govern alone again, but it locks Reform out of No10. The left (Lab, Gr, LD) still have a majority over the right in the UK
It would surely never pass the Lords with it not being a manifesto commitment. And there are plenty of Labour MPs opposed to PR on principle.
And, it would instantly become deeply unpopular because it would obviously be fiddling with the electoral system for partisan gain, and because Starmer is useless.
We've also seen in Wales that PR leads to electoral oblivion for Labour, because voters can vote for more appealing left-wing or centrist options.
And, finally, it's typical naive bollocks to assume that there's a permanent majority for the left over the right.
Off topic, but a few of you may enjoy this brief change of subject: Is Boris Johnson behaving himself these days? (Or at least not getting caught.) I did simple news search and the biggest story I found in that quick search is one on his son Wilfred's hair.
With a wife, and four young children* to support, I would certainly hope he is behaving. And I don't mind him making a little money off American audiences to do so.
(*His other five should be old enough to begin supporting themselves.)
Malcolm Offord gets elected to the Scottish Parliament on the regional list, so Reform will have parliamentary leadership in Scotland and Wales as well as Westminster.
Following various bits of coverage today, including a good deal of apocalyptic/gloating/catastrophist analysis, I am struck by one thing particularly, a thing which is IMHO relevant both to the future political trajectory and betting prospects. It is this.
Almost no attention is given to the significance of the fact that 74% of those who voted didn't vote for Reform.
I was out doing some last minute campaigning for the LDs yesterday afternoon, mostly targeting conservative moderates who had previously suggested that they might vote LD. Almost all of them said they'd voted, or intended to vote, Conservative for fear of letting Reform in.
Streeting backing Starmer in media pool interview.....nobody is going to go over the top.are they.
Yes Streeting just given Starmer his 'full support' when interviewed at his Redbridge count and says the PM will set out his 'new vision' for the nation next week.
So guess that is it, Starmer stays in No 10 for another year and we do it all again after the local elections next year!
Cabinet revolt or a leadership contest triggered by a hostile challenger getting 81 or more Labour MPs to publicly sponsor them. Unless Starmer is prepared to resign (there's no sign that he is) one of these two things needs to occur to force him out. It might be about to happen but I think it's more likely that it isn't. He will be going before the GE, that's a banker, but I don't think the party is ready to do it now and no amount of exasperated tweets and columns and blogposts is going to change that.
Streeting backing Starmer in media pool interview.....nobody is going to go over the top.are they.
Yes Streeting just given Starmer his 'full support' when interviewed at his Redbridge count and says the PM will set out his 'new vision' for the nation next week.
So guess that is it, Starmer stays in No 10 for another year and we do it all again after the local elections next year!
Farage will be pour himself another drink and lighting a big fat cigar. By the time they get rid it will be too last to turn the oil tankeer around.
I was having a little look at the Betfair list of next Labour leader.
I'll skip over Burnham, Raynor and Streeting as they've been done to death. All have their own flaws, whether it's not being an MP, tax affairs or being close to Mandelson.
Next you have Ed Miliband. I don't think he's the worst choice. There's presumably no new dirt on him given how long he's been at the top of politics. Yes he lost in 2015 but he only lost 26 seats and ended up with 232 - which I'd say is a great outcome for Labour right now. He would also be well placed to defend against the Green surge.
After that, Mahmood. Now I know she might defend against the Reform flank, but does she seriously stand a chance of winning with Labour members? No, there's a reason Blue Labour has not led in decades. Home Secretary is the peak of her political summit.
Next, Cooper. The safe, boring choice. Except for the fact Starmer was meant to be the safe, boring choice and we can all see how that's turned out. No, I don't think you get sick of porridge every morning then decide to have Oatabix instead. It's all just oats. The only way I can see her leading is if all other options self combust.
Then we have Alastair Carns. Which leads me to ask - who? Who is this person that I don't recognise them while regularly reading PB? Is he any good? Because when the favourites are all so middling, finding someone new isn't necessarily the worst idea.
Every new leader is a reaction to the flaws of the previous leader.
Labour will therefore choose charisma, which means Rayner.
Streeting backing Starmer in media pool interview.....nobody is going to go over the top.are they.
Yes Streeting just given Starmer his 'full support' when interviewed at his Redbridge count and says the PM will set out his 'new vision' for the nation next week.
So guess that is it, Starmer stays in No 10 for another year and we do it all again after the local elections next year!
Farage will be pour himself another drink and lighting a big fat cigar. By the time they get rid it will be too last to turn the oil tankeer around.
We will see, local elections next year are likely to be even worse for Labour as in rural and shire district councils in England mainly so Labour are likely to come behind Reform and the Tories and LDs on seats won. If that doesn't get rid of Starmer nothing will
Barry Gardiner - yes really - articulated why Starmer should go
Starmer should go because he's, on his own terms the defensive box to box midfielder he's always played. He doesn't have the vision or buccaneering spirit to "make the weather". He's not Henry. I look after a youth team, there are two of the younger players who are beautiful to watch, they control the defense, they move the ball out of defense with ease. I want to move them up, to control the midfield with the same fluency, I think they could, I think they could drive the team and pick out the chances but maybe the whole team would collapse.
Ed Miliband has joined the Labour cabinet MPs lining up to back Keir Starmer after Labour’s poor showing in the local elections.
“These are devastating election results for Labour and I’m deeply sorry for all of those colleagues who have lost their seats,” Miliband said in a post on X.
“Voters are making clear their anger at a broken economic and political status quo. As Keir has said, we must go further in delivering the mandate for change that Labour won in 2024 - and show how we will answer the call for change in our country.”
Streeting backing Starmer in media pool interview.....nobody is going to go over the top.are they.
Nope. They're all cowards who will pledge support for Starmer, despite knowing no PM has ever come back from this level of unpopularity and the next GE is going to be an extinction level event for Labour.
A fruit fly has bigger balls than your average Labour MP.
Ed Miliband has joined the Labour cabinet MPs lining up to back Keir Starmer after Labour’s poor showing in the local elections.
“These are devastating election results for Labour and I’m deeply sorry for all of those colleagues who have lost their seats,” Miliband said in a post on X.
“Voters are making clear their anger at a broken economic and political status quo. As Keir has said, we must go further in delivering the mandate for change that Labour won in 2024 - and show how we will answer the call for change in our country.”
That's backing him is it? What's Ed M on Betfair currently?
Malcolm Offord gets elected to the Scottish Parliament on the regional list, so Reform will have parliamentary leadership in Scotland and Wales as well as Westminster.
Barry Gardiner - yes really - articulated why Starmer should go
Starmer should go because he's, on his own terms the defensive box to box midfielder he's always played. He doesn't have the vision or buccaneering spirit to "make the weather". He's not Henry. I look after a youth team, there are two of the younger players who are beautiful to watch, they control the defense, they move the ball out of defense with ease. I want to move them up, to control the midfield with the same fluency, I think they could, I think they could drive the team and pick out the chances but maybe the whole team would collapse.
Looks like the message Starmer / Labour are going to go with is "I am the change".
Starmer has been very robust in his defence of himself. Key Cabinet figures seem to have been less bullish. It reminds me of Joe Biden two years ago, confident of his candidacy until everyone else wasn't.
Amazingly they are still counting in Inverness, where they made such a mess-up of the count in 2024 that they were a day late. Wonder if it is the same people in charge.
So we still don't know the final numbers at Holyrood.
I just tried that and the answer is a big no. I was hopeless. Worse than hopeless as I didn't even manage to get anywhere near a random score. I literally am the exact opposite of someone who can spot a party member by their face.
Looks like the message Starmer / Labour are going to go with is "I am the change".
Starmer has been very robust in his defence of himself. Key Cabinet figures seem to have been less bullish. It reminds me of Joe Biden two years ago, confident of his candidacy until everyone else wasn't.
I just tried that and the answer is a big no. I was hopeless. Worse than hopeless as I didn't even manage to get anywhere near a random score. I literally am the exact opposite of someone who can spot a party member by their face.
I can do Reform and Lib Dem. And the occasional Swampy Green. But it's hard!
Barry Gardiner - yes really - articulated why Starmer should go
Starmer should go because he's, on his own terms the defensive box to box midfielder he's always played. He doesn't have the vision or buccaneering spirit to "make the weather". He's not Henry. I look after a youth team, there are two of the younger players who are beautiful to watch, they control the defense, they move the ball out of defense with ease. I want to move them up, to control the midfield with the same fluency, I think they could, I think they could drive the team and pick out the chances but maybe the whole team would collapse.
Defence.
I know but the way they move the ball and their vision. It's heartbreaking.
Looks like the message Starmer / Labour are going to go with is "I am the change".
Starmer has been very robust in his defence of himself. Key Cabinet figures seem to have been less bullish. It reminds me of Joe Biden two years ago, confident of his candidacy until everyone else wasn't.
God not Biden, who went on until it was too late.
There is always that possibility with Starmer too.
I would suggest that there must be enough ambitious Cabinet members who won't want to lose their seats in 2029 or couldn't care less about historical Labour Party etiquette. They would be only too happy to stab Starmer in the front. He must know in his heart of hearts that the game is up.
From the moment his car left Buckingham Palace on July 5th 2024 he's been given a rum deal by the British press. That not withstanding he has also been an utterly shite Prime Minister.
Comments
It’s close for second between Labour and Reform, 17 v 15 . Unless the Tories pick up 3 this will be their worst ever result , they’re currently on 11 .
But could he campaign for election as the official Labour candidate on the basis of replacing the Prime Minister? Would ministers be able to campaign for him on that basis? Would he be able to campaign on the basis of repudiating the policies of Starmer's government?
Maybe there would be a nudge, nudge, wink, wink, element to it, but there's potential for Burnham to get tied up in knots over it.
I could just about buy the logic of “he’s very unpopular but doing necessary things they hurt and he’ll not be leader at the next election so somebody better will take over” but he’s not doing ANYTHING.
They are on a whiteboard in No 10 plastered in post-it notes with bright ideas written on them, gathering dust.
They are on a whiteboard in No 10 plastered in post-it notes with bright ideas written on them, gathering dust.
Maybe Farage has a point, maybe we do need an election.
Almost no attention is given to the significance of the fact that 74% of those who voted didn't vote for Reform.
https://bsky.app/profile/moorishgarden.bsky.social/post/3mlengwrz6s2h
Holme Valley South splits 1 Tory, 2 Reform. And the bath of water rolls down the hill a little more:
25 Reform - 30 mainstream - 8 Gazans
Two to go.
I’ve not been convinced to vote for Reform or another party so, unless anything changes, I won’t bother in 2029.
I'll skip over Burnham, Raynor and Streeting as they've been done to death. All have their own flaws, whether it's not being an MP, tax affairs or being close to Mandelson.
Next you have Ed Miliband. I don't think he's the worst choice. There's presumably no new dirt on him given how long he's been at the top of politics. Yes he lost in 2015 but he only lost 26 seats and ended up with 232 - which I'd say is a great outcome for Labour right now. He would also be well placed to defend against the Green surge.
After that, Mahmood. Now I know she might defend against the Reform flank, but does she seriously stand a chance of winning with Labour members? No, there's a reason Blue Labour has not led in decades. Home Secretary is the peak of her political summit.
Next, Cooper. The safe, boring choice. Except for the fact Starmer was meant to be the safe, boring choice and we can all see how that's turned out. No, I don't think you get sick of porridge every morning then decide to have Oatabix instead. It's all just oats. The only way I can see her leading is if all other options self combust.
Then we have Alastair Carns. Which leads me to ask - who? Who is this person that I don't recognise them while regularly reading PB? Is he any good? Because when the favourites are all so middling, finding someone new isn't necessarily the worst idea.
Reporting 3 yr olds for hate crimes.
Throwing money at the EU.
Choking out the economy.
An explosion of petty crime.
Freezing Grannies.
Closing refineries in the UK, opening refineries elsewhere.
Rampant petty lawlessness.
FURTHER AND FASTER.
This means that for Plaid Cymru to be defeated in votes would require Labour voting with the Tories and Reform. So I'd expect Plaid to be able to govern without a formal deal.
Tories have done best in wealthy traditionalist bastions, and urban spots where they find the Roderick Spodes a bit uncouth. Reform has the national populist bloc-vote sewn up. So going trad and small c conservative is probably their brand now. The BigG and HYUFD voter. Kemi doesn’t really fit that brand - too online, too MAGA - but it seems not to matter.
28 Reform - 30 mainstreams - 8 Gazans.
Denby Dale to go. Association with pies, so after Wigan it's not looking good.
Been v active on ye olde X of late which is partly why some have been punting him
We've seen from plenty of polling evidence, and by-elections, that most Tory voters are very happy to vote for Reform to try to defeat a party of the Left. So there isn't a 3:1 anti-Reform voting bloc anywhere but in your imagination.
Instead the country is roughly split 50:50 between right and left.
End result in Kirklees:
Reform 29 (+29)
Independents 14 (+8, 8 Gaza, 3 Left, 3 Local)
Green 12 (+8)
Con 9 (-6)
LD 5 (-5)
Lab ,🌊 (-34)
Labour will therefore choose charisma, which means Rayner.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cewpgkrrn05o
He'll get elected as the anti-Starmer left will rally around him in any sensible seat.
MPs and members will vote for him as the alternatives are worse.
... So the real challenge is working out how to get the Labour NEC to let him stand as MP when doing so guarantees Starmer being ousted. God knows how to achieve that.
Fairlop (Redbridge) - 3 Labour (TWO GAINS from Tories)
https://x.com/tnewtondunn/status/2052802123671220348
There is an escape route for Labour from certain disaster at the general election: use their Commons majority to ram through PR. It’s cynical, + they’d never govern alone again, but it locks Reform out of No10. The left (Lab, Gr, LD) still have a majority over the right in the UK
I think Burnham is over-rated, especially by himself. He might offer better communication, but his sole qualification to me seems to be that he wants to be PM. We've had someone who thought that before (Johnson). I don't see what policy he is proposing. He was a poor minister. He is weak - he didn't resign from Corbyn's shadow cabinet when everyone else did because he didn't want to risk becoming Manchester Mayor. His judgement is poor - if he really wanted to be PM he would have stood for Parliament at the last election. He's missed his chance.
Streeting is a good communicator and seems to have some vision but is too right-wing for me (and I usually vote LD). Mahmood even more so - too authoritarian certainly. Cooper is identikit Starmer but female. All the other names down the list - who?
That leaves Rayner and Miliband. I think one of them is the only realistic choice. Rayner has authenticity, conviction and probably the best political sensitivity of any candidate. I think also she is personally too flawed (I don't like her much FWIW), too left-wing and the press will monster her so we will never find out if she could do the job. That leaves Miliband - he has the experience, he is the one minister who has hit the ground running and achieved something. He is ruthless enough to do the job but seems affable enough if a bit weird still. I suspect he might surprise on the upside, or be a disaster, but by the process of elimination is the only one who could do the job.
Would I choose him over Starmer? Don't know. But I know I wouldn't choose any of the others. Luckily I'm not a Labour member so I don't have to decide!
“Keir Starmer is under pressure to set out a timeline for his departure after a crushing defeat in elections across Britain prompted senior Labour MPs to call for him to step down within a year.
In a disastrous set of results, Labour had lost control of more than 25 councils and almost 1,000 council seats in England by Friday evening, many to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, which made large gains across the Midlands and the north as well as taking seats from the Tories in the south.”
How long can he resist this intense negative pressure?
And, it would instantly become deeply unpopular because it would obviously be fiddling with the electoral system for partisan gain, and because Starmer is useless.
We've also seen in Wales that PR leads to electoral oblivion for Labour, because voters can vote for more appealing left-wing or centrist options.
And, finally, it's typical naive bollocks to assume that there's a permanent majority for the left over the right.
With a wife, and four young children* to support, I would certainly hope he is behaving. And I don't mind him making a little money off American audiences to do so.
(*His other five should be old enough to begin supporting themselves.)
Please desist from these comments you're making.
They can get the site into trouble.
If you want to make these type of allegations, you can publish them under your own name on your own blog or take them to the police.
Are we clear?
Fulwell (Redbridge) - ditto
So guess that is it, Starmer stays in No 10 for another year and we do it all again after the local elections next year!
Otherwise "look back in Bangor" is worthy of Malcolm Pryce, well done!
https://www.thesun.co.uk/tvandshowbiz/39054911/tess-daly-vernon-kay-shock-marriage-split/
26 Lab
5 Con
3 Inds
2 Green
32 needed for a majority
https://guesstheparty.co.uk/
Fun for the whole family...
I look after a youth team, there are two of the younger players who are beautiful to watch, they control the defense, they move the ball out of defense with ease. I want to move them up, to control the midfield with the same fluency, I think they could, I think they could drive the team and pick out the chances but maybe the whole team would collapse.
29 seats now, I'm calling this for Labour!
“These are devastating election results for Labour and I’m deeply sorry for all of those colleagues who have lost their seats,” Miliband said in a post on X.
“Voters are making clear their anger at a broken economic and political status quo. As Keir has said, we must go further in delivering the mandate for change that Labour won in 2024 - and show how we will answer the call for change in our country.”
Goodmayes - 3 more Labour holds.
A fruit fly has bigger balls than your average Labour MP.
What's Ed M on Betfair currently?
So we still don't know the final numbers at Holyrood.
I would suggest that there must be enough ambitious Cabinet members who won't want to lose their seats in 2029 or couldn't care less about historical Labour Party etiquette. They would be only too happy to stab Starmer in the front. He must know in his heart of hearts that the game is up.
From the moment his car left Buckingham Palace on July 5th 2024 he's been given a rum deal by the British press. That not withstanding he has also been an utterly shite Prime Minister.