That's the Rawlings and Thrasher one. It's always different from the Curtice one anyways. Which was why maintaining so strongly that second place on NEV for a leader to survive was so bonkers. On the Curtice measure Starmer, Badenoch and Davey all ought to quit forthwith.
Not sure how he has worked that one to have the Greens secondgiven the Greens are still fifth on seats won and the seats up this year are mainly in urban areas where the Greens should be stronger than rural areas or market towns. Unless the Greens are massively failing to translate votes won into seats won
Yes, I think the Green (and Reform) votes have not been well targetted. They may well get better at it with time.
Reform are winning 31% of the council seats on 27% of the vote, so overperforming.
The Greens have so far won just 10% of the council seats on 18% of the vote so significantly underperforming based on seats won per vote if Curtice is correct on his NEV figures, although Rawlings and Thrasher have the Greens fifth on NEV
Pretty much every member of the cabinet has tweeted some version of “it’s all very sad what’s happened but sacking the boss would be worse” - apart from Wes Streeting, Yvette Cooper, Ed Miliband and Shabana Mahmood
Sad state of affairs......why are they all still using twatter?
He hasn't been a councillor at all, since they take up office on the 4th day after the elections.
Exactly. I never said he was a councillor. I’m saying he didnt even get a day at it.
He won’t be able to take the oath or whatever it is they do to become one.
I think technically they take up office automatically on the 4th day, but if they don't make a declaration of acceptance of office within a certain period they cannot do any actual formal council stuff - since they lose their seat if they don't make it within that period (I think a month?), rather than the seat immediately being vacant if they don't make it.
Which does raise an interesting question of whether you can 'resign', as that is taking an action, if you cannot make the declaration. And possibly means he will technically (and briefly) get to be a councillor, just one who cannot take any action!
Not sure how he has worked that one to have the Greens secondgiven the Greens are still fifth on seats won and the seats up this year are mainly in urban areas where the Greens should be stronger than rural areas or market towns. Unless the Greens are massively failing to translate votes won into seats won
Yes, I think the Green (and Reform) votes have not been well targetted. They may well get better at it with time.
Reform are winning 31% of the council seats on 27% of the vote, so overperforming.
The Greens have so far won just 10% of the council seats on 18% of the vote so significantly underperforming based on seats won per vote if Curtice is correct on his NEV figures, although Rawlings and Thrasher have the Greens fifth on NEV
As I understand it the NEV is a projection based on the national vote, not on these particular contests. It includes places not voting yesterday.
Robert Jenrick on Question Time says he believes a general election is inevitable.
Well, duh.
For someone who has been in politics all his life - he really is a grade A idiot.
I know that Reform need something to keep attention on them for the next 2 years but there is zero chance of a general election...
Not true. I wish that was true, I with we were that stable, but it isn't true
If we have a bond market crisis and need some kind of intervention - ie if it is decided we can only borrow more, if we make savage cuts - it is easy to see a GE being called, as the only way to resolve the problem politically
Check what the UK is paying to borrow money. It is not pretty
Robert Jenrick on Question Time says he believes a general election is inevitable.
Well, duh.
Like it was when May took over from Cameron and when Truss took over from Johnson and when Sunak took over from Truss.
I cannot stand how stupid politicians on all sides think the public are when they completely switch positions on whether you need a GE when leaders change, or there are really bad local results, and so on. Every single one of them shamelessly reverses course, they all know it, and yet they say it with a straight face.
That said, did he say a GE soon was inevitable? As one will be inevitable eventually.
Robert Jenrick on Question Time says he believes a general election is inevitable.
Well, duh.
For someone who has been in politics all his life - he really is a grade A idiot.
I know that Reform need something to keep attention on them for the next 2 years but there is zero chance of a general election...
Not true. I wish that was true, I with we were that stable, but it isn't true
If we have a bond market crisis and need some kind of intervention - ie if it is decided we can only borrow more, if we make savage cuts - it is easy to see a GE being called, as the only way to resolve the problem politically
Check what the UK is paying to borrow money. It is not pretty
A general election with a messy result is not going to keep the bond market happy. Not one bit.
To prevent those circumstances, a government of national unity with what we have in Parliment now is more likely than a general election.
Robert Jenrick on Question Time says he believes a general election is inevitable.
Well, duh.
For someone who has been in politics all his life - he really is a grade A idiot.
I know that Reform need something to keep attention on them for the next 2 years but there is zero chance of a general election...
Not true. I wish that was true, I with we were that stable, but it isn't true
If we have a bond market crisis and need some kind of intervention - ie if it is decided we can only borrow more, if we make savage cuts - it is easy to see a GE being called, as the only way to resolve the problem politically
Check what the UK is paying to borrow money. It is not pretty
The last time that happened in 1976 there was no suggestion of a GE. I suspect the Bond Markets would be even more spooked by a GE during a UK financial crisis.
Reform and Tories are currently on course to be the two largest factions in Birmingham, but it is no longer possible for a Reform/Tory coalition to reach a majority.
Robert Jenrick on Question Time says he believes a general election is inevitable.
Well, duh.
For someone who has been in politics all his life - he really is a grade A idiot.
I know that Reform need something to keep attention on them for the next 2 years but there is zero chance of a general election...
Not true. I wish that was true, I with we were that stable, but it isn't true
If we have a bond market crisis and need some kind of intervention - ie if it is decided we can only borrow more, if we make savage cuts - it is easy to see a GE being called, as the only way to resolve the problem politically
Check what the UK is paying to borrow money. It is not pretty
The last time that happened in 1976 there was no suggestion of a GE. I suspect the Bond Markets would be even more spooked by a GE during a UK financial crisis.
They seem to be reassured every time Starmer and Reeves seem to be staying. And spooked when they might not. I don't see how a 4-6 week campaign with the prospect of a majority for a Party where only a dozen or so have ever been MPs before, or an unstable coalition between people who hate each other would calm them down particularly.
Jenrick tying himself in knots on QT over Farage's £5 million gift. He says it wouldn't be needed if the Govt provided Farage with security, but asked whether if the Govt did that, Farage would give the £5 million back, he says he wouldn't need to! He repeatedly makes false claims about what the rules say, and then says it's a smear that he's even being asked about it.
It is interesting that people are still spinning the Greens as having a bad time of it. 2nd in NEV (and the only other party up in NEV), 2nd in number of gains, and newly 2nd place in more seats than anyone else (if I've read that right) - I'd be wary of trying to take that line. Gains of this order in the next round of locals makes them largest party (at least) in an awful lot of councils.
The BBC throwing some shade at most SNP candidates in describing the excellent win in Shetland.
She works for a Norwegian energy company and runs a mobile sauna business and, as such, will be one of the few SNP MSPs who doesn't come with prior political experience.
Are the SNP appreciably more 'political' with their candidates than others?
Looking ahead, a pretty interesting by-election coming up.
Aberdeen South will become vacant due to Stephen Flynn transferring to Holyrood.
The 2024 result:
SNP Stephen Flynn 15,213 32.8 −12.5 Labour M. Tauqeer Malik 11,455 24.7 +15.9 Conservative John Wheeler 11,300 24.4 −10.0 Reform Michael Pearce 3,199 6.9 +6.5 Liberal Democrats Jeff Goodhall 2,921 6.3 −4.4 Green Guy Ingerson 1,609 3.5 +3.0 Scottish Family Graeme Craib 423 0.9 N/A Independent Sophie Molly 225 0.5 N/A
Oh please let Sophie Molly run again, there's a lack of novelty candidates in Scotland.
Anyone see the Guga guy at Edinburgh Central count?
Big result in London is that Reform failed to meet expectations in outer London, particularly Bexley and Bromley where they even failed to take the seat where Farage has his London home.
It is interesting that people are still spinning the Greens as having a bad time of it. 2nd in NEV (and the only other party up in NEV), 2nd in number of gains, and newly 2nd place in more seats than anyone else (if I've read that right) - I'd be wary of trying to take that line. Gains of this order in the next round of locals makes them largest party (at least) in an awful lot of councils.
On seats won today the Greens are fifth, even if their voteshare as London comes fully in looks a bit better overall Polanski would have been unhappy with that result at the start of the campaign and they certainly aren't winning more councils next year on that level of seats won
Big result in London is that Reform failed to meet expectations in outer London, particularly Bexley and Bromley where they even failed to take the seat where Farage has his London home.
Yep, that's the "big result" all right. On a day when Reform have won trillions of seats all over the fucking country and pounded Labour and the Tories into pitiful oblivion, the "big result" is Reform failing to take..... Bexley
Reform and Tories are currently on course to be the two largest factions in Birmingham, but it is no longer possible for a Reform/Tory coalition to reach a majority.
It is interesting that people are still spinning the Greens as having a bad time of it. 2nd in NEV (and the only other party up in NEV), 2nd in number of gains, and newly 2nd place in more seats than anyone else (if I've read that right) - I'd be wary of trying to take that line. Gains of this order in the next round of locals makes them largest party (at least) in an awful lot of councils.
Depends on whose NEV share you look at; you can choose between second and fifth.
Big result in London is that Reform failed to meet expectations in outer London, particularly Bexley and Bromley where they even failed to take the seat where Farage has his London home.
Yep, that's the "big result" all right. On a day when Reform have won trillions of seats all over the fucking country and pounded Labour and the Tories into pitiful oblivion, the "big result" is Reform failing to take..... Bexley
Farage must be penning his resignation letter as we speak.
Not sure how he has worked that one to have the Greens secondgiven the Greens are still fifth on seats won and the seats up this year are mainly in urban areas where the Greens should be stronger than rural areas or market towns. Unless the Greens are massively failing to translate votes won into seats won
Yes, I think the Green (and Reform) votes have not been well targetted. They may well get better at it with time.
Reform are winning 31% of the council seats on 27% of the vote, so overperforming.
The Greens have so far won just 10% of the council seats on 18% of the vote so significantly underperforming based on seats won per vote if Curtice is correct on his NEV figures, although Rawlings and Thrasher have the Greens fifth on NEV
As I understand it the NEV is a projection based on the national vote, not on these particular contests. It includes places not voting yesterday.
Places not voting yesterday are largely rural and small town English shires hardly amenable to Polanski. Which means the Green votershare today may be even higher than Curtice is projecting for their NEV which means their seats won is terrible in relation to votes won
In Scotland, if the LDs gain Ross, Comerty and Skye, then they will end up on 7 constituency seats... but no list seat in Highlands & Islands. If they do not, then they probably pick up a list seat.
I think they will get one more list seat (with possibly a second if they're very lucky). So their likely total is 9, with a possibility of 10.
It is interesting that people are still spinning the Greens as having a bad time of it. 2nd in NEV (and the only other party up in NEV), 2nd in number of gains, and newly 2nd place in more seats than anyone else (if I've read that right) - I'd be wary of trying to take that line. Gains of this order in the next round of locals makes them largest party (at least) in an awful lot of councils.
Depends on whose NEV share you look at; you can choose between second and fifth.
For the PB predictions competition and for my bets it is the BBC/Curtice NEV I use.
Big result in London is that Reform failed to meet expectations in outer London, particularly Bexley and Bromley where they even failed to take the seat where Farage has his London home.
Yep, that's the "big result" all right. On a day when Reform have won trillions of seats all over the fucking country and pounded Labour and the Tories into pitiful oblivion, the "big result" is Reform failing to take..... Bexley
Farage must be penning his resignation letter as we speak.
Remember, if you're a PB Centrist Dad, Farage is a loser who dislikes democracy, and has never won anyything, and won't win anything in the future, and also he's totally unsuccessful at politics
Robert Jenrick on Question Time says he believes a general election is inevitable.
Well, duh.
For someone who has been in politics all his life - he really is a grade A idiot.
I know that Reform need something to keep attention on them for the next 2 years but there is zero chance of a general election...
Not true. I wish that was true, I with we were that stable, but it isn't true
If we have a bond market crisis and need some kind of intervention - ie if it is decided we can only borrow more, if we make savage cuts - it is easy to see a GE being called, as the only way to resolve the problem politically
Check what the UK is paying to borrow money. It is not pretty
The last time that happened in 1976 there was no suggestion of a GE. I suspect the Bond Markets would be even more spooked by a GE during a UK financial crisis.
Yes. A general election would only be called in those circumstances if the Commons refused to pass an austerity budget, otherwise it would create panic in the bond markets.
Reform and Tories are currently on course to be the two largest factions in Birmingham, but it is no longer possible for a Reform/Tory coalition to reach a majority.
My info is slightly more up to date than that. Harborne has, somewhat unexpectedly, elected a Green and an Independent. Rather hilariously, the Green doesn't actually want to be a councillor - she is leaving the area - so that's our first by-election coming up!
Robert Jenrick on Question Time says he believes a general election is inevitable.
Well, duh.
For someone who has been in politics all his life - he really is a grade A idiot.
I know that Reform need something to keep attention on them for the next 2 years but there is zero chance of a general election...
Not true. I wish that was true, I with we were that stable, but it isn't true
If we have a bond market crisis and need some kind of intervention - ie if it is decided we can only borrow more, if we make savage cuts - it is easy to see a GE being called, as the only way to resolve the problem politically
Check what the UK is paying to borrow money. It is not pretty
The last time that happened in 1976 there was no suggestion of a GE. I suspect the Bond Markets would be even more spooked by a GE during a UK financial crisis.
Yes. A general election would only be called in those circumstances if the Commons refused to pass an austerity budget, otherwise it would create panic in the bond markets.
But that's my point, that's the scenario I envisage
Starmer and Reeves get a visit from the bailiffs, who demand savage cuts to welfare if Britain wants to keep borrowing. But these cuts will not be passed by Labour MPs (and they wouldn't be)
In that event, we would surely have a General Election, we wouldn't suddenly have a National Emergency Coalition
This is, happily, not likely, but it is sadly possible. And when I suggested this I was responding to a comment that claimed there was "zero chance" of a GE in the next two years. This is not the case. The chances are higher than zero, for reasons adduced
It is interesting that people are still spinning the Greens as having a bad time of it. 2nd in NEV (and the only other party up in NEV), 2nd in number of gains, and newly 2nd place in more seats than anyone else (if I've read that right) - I'd be wary of trying to take that line. Gains of this order in the next round of locals makes them largest party (at least) in an awful lot of councils.
Depends on whose NEV share you look at; you can choose between second and fifth.
For the PB predictions competition and for my bets it is the BBC/Curtice NEV I use.
Regardless of which NEV you use, I think you'll conclude that the nation within the UK with the highest % Labour vote share is now .....
Looking ahead, a pretty interesting by-election coming up.
Aberdeen South will become vacant due to Stephen Flynn transferring to Holyrood.
The 2024 result:
SNP Stephen Flynn 15,213 32.8 −12.5 Labour M. Tauqeer Malik 11,455 24.7 +15.9 Conservative John Wheeler 11,300 24.4 −10.0 Reform Michael Pearce 3,199 6.9 +6.5 Liberal Democrats Jeff Goodhall 2,921 6.3 −4.4 Green Guy Ingerson 1,609 3.5 +3.0 Scottish Family Graeme Craib 423 0.9 N/A Independent Sophie Molly 225 0.5 N/A
Oh please let Sophie Molly run again, there's a lack of novelty candidates in Scotland.
Anyone see the Guga guy at Edinburgh Central count?
I saw the pic. Angus R. giving every sign of not finding it funny.
It is interesting that people are still spinning the Greens as having a bad time of it. 2nd in NEV (and the only other party up in NEV), 2nd in number of gains, and newly 2nd place in more seats than anyone else (if I've read that right) - I'd be wary of trying to take that line. Gains of this order in the next round of locals makes them largest party (at least) in an awful lot of councils.
A few hundred of those second places could have been firsts if Polanski hadn't pulled a Corbyn over antisemitism in the last week.
That's why people are saying the Greens have done badly.
Why is Greek white wine now the best in the world, when it used to be the worst?
It is very good. Totally with you on that. (A local aside - I presume you know the wine shop in Queens Park that has lots of wines from lesser regarded countries?)
(Edit: Salusbury wine shop. It's Queens Park, so they buzz you in. Good place though)
Big result in London is that Reform failed to meet expectations in outer London, particularly Bexley and Bromley where they even failed to take the seat where Farage has his London home.
Yep, that's the "big result" all right. On a day when Reform have won trillions of seats all over the fucking country and pounded Labour and the Tories into pitiful oblivion, the "big result" is Reform failing to take..... Bexley
Farage must be penning his resignation letter as we speak.
Remember, if you're a PB Centrist Dad, Farage is a loser who dislikes democracy, and has never won anyything, and won't win anything in the future, and also he's totally unsuccessful at politics
A straw man argument. Reform are currently doing well , no one’s denying that . Farage is thin skinned and will lose his rag in a GE campaign. That’s of course if he bothers to turn up to debates after he was too chicken to face questions recently over his so called security donation !
Big result in London is that Reform failed to meet expectations in outer London, particularly Bexley and Bromley where they even failed to take the seat where Farage has his London home.
Yep, that's the "big result" all right. On a day when Reform have won trillions of seats all over the fucking country and pounded Labour and the Tories into pitiful oblivion, the "big result" is Reform failing to take..... Bexley
Farage must be penning his resignation letter as we speak.
he's blown it, all down hill from here with endless stories of clown show councils
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 11m It's getting ridiculous now. Those cabinet ministers trying to prop up Keir Starmer are basically the two guys from Weekend At Bernie's.
Yorkshire Live having trouble with their spell checker or upset at Bradford's results:
As the ocunt contunies during the election in Bradford, so far Reform ar in the lead with 20 seats, reepresenting 31% of the votes. Labour currently has 10 seats and the Tories have six.
You can find pout who has been elected so far here.
Why is Greek white wine now the best in the world, when it used to be the worst?
It is very good. Totally with you on that. (A local aside - I presume you know the wine shop in Queens Park that has lots of wines from lesser regarded countries?)
No, I don't. I get all my fancy wines from Vivino, generally
The only problem with Greek white wine is that everyone else has also discovered that it is brilliant. I am old enough to remember when I was basically the first to realise, and I was getting these dreamy dreamy assyrtikos for under a tenner a bottle. Now they are over £20
Why is Greek white wine now the best in the world, when it used to be the worst?
I'm not a huge fan of white wine but my wife has been buying the Chapel Down Bacchus, it's not horribly priced at about £15-17 per bottle in the supermarkets and it is excellent. Has made me a white wine convert, well at least this one.
Big result in London is that Reform failed to meet expectations in outer London, particularly Bexley and Bromley where they even failed to take the seat where Farage has his London home.
Yep, that's the "big result" all right. On a day when Reform have won trillions of seats all over the fucking country and pounded Labour and the Tories into pitiful oblivion, the "big result" is Reform failing to take..... Bexley
I don't think it's a big result, but it is a surprise. I would have expected Bexley to be fertile territory for Reform. It voted 63% for Leave.
Big result in London is that Reform failed to meet expectations in outer London, particularly Bexley and Bromley where they even failed to take the seat where Farage has his London home.
Yep, that's the "big result" all right. On a day when Reform have won trillions of seats all over the fucking country and pounded Labour and the Tories into pitiful oblivion, the "big result" is Reform failing to take..... Bexley
Farage must be penning his resignation letter as we speak.
he's blown it, all down hill from here with endless stories of clown show councils
Have we really heard that much from the councils won last year? Some, sure, some arguments about flags, some defections from those unable to play nice, pointing out that council tax freezes or reductions are not generally viable, but much else?
Comments
Which was why maintaining so strongly that second place on NEV for a leader to survive was so bonkers.
On the Curtice measure Starmer, Badenoch and Davey all ought to quit forthwith.
The Greens have so far won just 10% of the council seats on 18% of the vote so significantly underperforming based on seats won per vote if Curtice is correct on his NEV figures, although Rawlings and Thrasher have the Greens fifth on NEV
Which does raise an interesting question of whether you can 'resign', as that is taking an action, if you cannot make the declaration. And possibly means he will technically (and briefly) get to be a councillor, just one who cannot take any action!
Edit:
It's two months apparently.
https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1972/70/section/7
https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1972/70/section/83
I know that Reform need something to keep attention on them for the next 2 years but there is zero chance of a general election...
The genteel folk of Ilkley not so taken by the new version of the Greens.
- Plaid Cymru 43 seats (20 seats gained)
- Reform UK 34 seats (34 seats gained)
- Labour 9 seats (35 seats lost)
- Conservative 7 seats (22 seats lost)
- Green 2 seats (2 seats gained)
- Liberal Democrat 1 seat (1 seat gained?)
Total 96https://www.bbc.co.uk/#election-wales
If we have a bond market crisis and need some kind of intervention - ie if it is decided we can only borrow more, if we make savage cuts - it is easy to see a GE being called, as the only way to resolve the problem politically
Check what the UK is paying to borrow money. It is not pretty
That said, did he say a GE soon was inevitable? As one will be inevitable eventually.
To prevent those circumstances, a government of national unity with what we have in Parliment now is more likely than a general election.
Tories at over 500.
I'm not sure how losing c 40% of your seats is bouncing back.
18 councils left to declare, 15% of the 118 already declared. 1,223 Labour losses so far (Sky).
Add 15% of that makes 1,407. Assuming the situation of those to declare is broadly similar to those that have declared.
I don't see how a 4-6 week campaign with the prospect of a majority for a Party where only a dozen or so have ever been MPs before, or an unstable coalition between people who hate each other would calm them down particularly.
BilboStarmer: After all, Why Not? Why Shouldn't I keep It?Labour: 15
Green: 11
Newham Independents: 8
The NIP have taken Little Ilford, East Ham and Plashet.
The Greens have taken Maryland, Royal Victoria and Stratford and one seat in each of Forest Gate North and Canning Town North.
Stop the count, my 100/1 bet may come in
We should stay humble and modest if it is a winner.
3 NIP gains from Labour.
Anyone see the Guga guy at Edinburgh Central count?
Thus far across the Borough, 2 Labour losses to Tories, 1 to Greens, 1 to Indies.
- i) I did not watch the Edinburgh Central count
- ii) I do not know what a "Guga Guy" is
Apart from that, yes.https://x.com/historyrock_/status/2052757721686986874?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
Lab 24
Rfm 20
Con 6
Grn 4
It's just incredible.
Christmas is coming, turkeys.
https://www.scottishlegal.com/articles/man-in-giant-bird-costume-running-for-holyrood-1
I think they will get one more list seat (with possibly a second if they're very lucky). So their likely total is 9, with a possibility of 10.
Kevin Schofield
@KevinASchofield
·
36m
Unlike other cabinet members, Yvette has definitely not said the PM should stay in place.
https://x.com/KevinASchofield/status/2052822003422253296
Starmer and Reeves get a visit from the bailiffs, who demand savage cuts to welfare if Britain wants to keep borrowing. But these cuts will not be passed by Labour MPs (and they wouldn't be)
In that event, we would surely have a General Election, we wouldn't suddenly have a National Emergency Coalition
This is, happily, not likely, but it is sadly possible. And when I suggested this I was responding to a comment that claimed there was "zero chance" of a GE in the next two years. This is not the case. The chances are higher than zero, for reasons adduced
...... Scotland with 19% (constituency) share.
Labour 19 (plus the Mayor)
Newham Independents 19
Greens 11
17 seats to be filled. Not quite impossible for either Labour or the NIP to win a majority but very unlkely so NOC.
That's why people are saying the Greens have done badly.
(Edit: Salusbury wine shop. It's Queens Park, so they buzz you in. Good place though)
@DPJHodges
·
11m
It's getting ridiculous now. Those cabinet ministers trying to prop up Keir Starmer are basically the two guys from Weekend At Bernie's.
As the ocunt contunies during the election in Bradford, so far Reform ar in the lead with 20 seats, reepresenting 31% of the votes. Labour currently has 10 seats and the Tories have six.
You can find pout who has been elected so far here.
The only problem with Greek white wine is that everyone else has also discovered that it is brilliant. I am old enough to remember when I was basically the first to realise, and I was getting these dreamy dreamy assyrtikos for under a tenner a bottle. Now they are over £20
So all that campaigning by my comrades paid off.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2026/scotland/results