From this John Curtice analysis it looks as if Projected National Share of the vote something like Reform 26% Lab 19% Con 19% LibDem ?18% Green 16% Apocalypse Postponed for the Uniparty
Kemi and Starmer probably both survive if the Tories and Labour are tied second on NEV. Reform first on just 26% can easily be denied a majority with anti Reform tactical voting
Kemi certainly secure then, Starmer probably too as Labour have beaten the Greens and the PM's biggest rival in Parliament Rayner's main platform was she could win back votes Labour lost to the Greens
How the fucking fuck can Skyr be "secure" when he's got 16% of the vote and his party is THIRD. This is catastrophic for Labour, about as bad as it gets
I mean, you might be right, but that proves the Labour party is insane, if they cannot topple this loser after a result this bad
Labour are second with Curtice NEV, only Rayner clearly led Starmer in Labour members polls and she would have shifted left to win back Green voters, a strategy torpedoed by Polanski's party's underperformance today.
Burnham still a rival but he is not an MP and until he is cannot challenge SKS
In Manchester, Lab ended up retaining six seats out of 31 it held, losing 7 to Reform and 18 to Green. The sole LD retained his seat.
Who won your ward
No-one yet. I'm in Trafford. The only news we have had so far is Andrew Western not commenting. I'm enjoying speculating. Surely Lab will retain it? But lots of people have been thinking that about their locality. And if not Lab, who? I'm not aware of much Reform presence, and we're possibly a little too comfortable to be natural Reform territory (though a lot of the ward is ex local authority). And we're not fashionable enough to be Green. Once upon a time the Tories could have won here, but that was probably 40 years ago. I'm agog.
It looks increasingly like nobody is going over the top
Andy Burnham is not expected to say anything today or this weekend. Wes Streeting appears to be sticking to what he said before the election - he doesn't think this is the time for a leadership challenge
Cabinet ministers are privately despairing and think next week is huge - the PM's reset speech has to hit home, the King's speech has to show real ambition - but they're not calling for his head at the moment, however unsustainable they think his premiership is
The one variable is Angela Rayner - it's still not clear whether she will go public over the next 72 hours. The council in her seat has been decimated
We've essentially got a party in a sense of stasis - ministers know it's bad, they know that Starmer is going down terribly on the doorstep, but at this point in time they don't have a better alternative
All of which plays in Starmer's favour, in the short term at least
Just utterly embarrassing all around.
It's early days. Powder being kept dry. Not unexpectedly Ian Lavery isn't beating about the bush.
The split Labour/Green vote is going to be a car crash in a general.
Ahem.
Late last month I had discussions with some people who used to work in the Westminster village and when discussing both the immediate future and the long term future they proposed a suggestion that startled me.
Their prediction is that in the next eighteen months or so if the polls remain roughly where they are now then the political discussions will turn to pacts and formal alliances, the only question is which side will propose it first, the Greens/Labour/Lib Dems or Reform/The Tories.
The trigger might even be this week’s local elections when the limits of first past the post are exposed, where for example in traditional Tory areas might wake up with Green councillors thank to a split vote between the Tories and Reform. Reform’s detention centre policies might also be a trigger for the centre-left. If one bloc starts forming an alliance then the other one will too.
We've got 7 seats in Scotland so far. Only Shetland is a shock although Labour will be dismayed with the result in Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley. They should have been in contention there and, thanks to Reform, didn't even come second. The lack of talent in the Scottish Parliament is gutting. One of the few lights is Jackie Baillie but I fear with results like Carrick she may be in trouble in Dumbarton.
It looks increasingly like nobody is going over the top
Andy Burnham is not expected to say anything today or this weekend. Wes Streeting appears to be sticking to what he said before the election - he doesn't think this is the time for a leadership challenge
Cabinet ministers are privately despairing and think next week is huge - the PM's reset speech has to hit home, the King's speech has to show real ambition - but they're not calling for his head at the moment, however unsustainable they think his premiership is
The one variable is Angela Rayner - it's still not clear whether she will go public over the next 72 hours. The council in her seat has been decimated
We've essentially got a party in a sense of stasis - ministers know it's bad, they know that Starmer is going down terribly on the doorstep, but at this point in time they don't have a better alternative
All of which plays in Starmer's favour, in the short term at least
Labour's best hope of breaking the duck was in one or two of the Wakefield City constituencies and we haven't counted those yet. Possibly Tory best remaining chance still to come as well.
Improbably, Lab have retained Bury (see my earlier comment about Ramsbottom, but generalised to the whole Borough - this is their heartland now - moderately comfortable, moderately fashionable, white, urban but not too urban. They did manage to lose a seat to the Workers Party though.
Liberal Democrat LOSS to No Overall Control Changes w/ 2022 for outgoing councillors.
Gosport klaxon.
It's been weird politically forever... Partly the "red wall town stuck on the south coast" thing, partly the many rises and falls of Peter Chegwyn, who has been Mr Liberal Gosport since the 1980s. Very old-school pavement politics guy. Must be getting on a lot by now.
Basically played the local resentments card brilliantly for... blimey, about 40 years. Not like most Lib Dems nationwide. And now he's been outgunned by someone doing a similar shtick with national reach and budget.
Oh, the many years that many many Gosport Tories hoped we had put him in the bin. Maybe he now is, but not in the way we might have hoped.
It's becoming clear that this will be the narrative pushed by Labour supporters over the next few weeks, it's the security blanket and you can see them latching onto it already.
Reform have gained two more from Lab in Rochdale (Castleton and Hopwood Hall) and, slightly surprisingly, one from the LDs (Milnrow and New Hey). The BBC has Lab retaining the council but the MEN thinks it is still in the balance.
Yeah but that doesn’t matter? It’s still a split vote
If you took the Labour candidate out of the picture and gave the remaining Labour voters a forced choice between the Greens and Reform, it's brave to think that the Greens would win given how the rest of the Labour vote broke.
Yeah but that doesn’t matter? It’s still a split vote
If you took the Labour candidate out of the picture and gave the remaining Labour voters a forced choice between the Greens and Reform, it's brave to think that the Greens would win given how the rest of the Labour vote broke.
But that’s a completely irrelevant scenario. They are in the picture
Hold up in Trafford because there is a ward where rather more votes have been found than should be the case. I suspect cock-up rather than conspiracy. This isn't Oldham.
I may resign my Labour membership. The fact the cabinet are allowing this to continue is making me think I should either vote Tory next time or spoil my ballot.
Yeah but that doesn’t matter? It’s still a split vote
If you took the Labour candidate out of the picture and gave the remaining Labour voters a forced choice between the Greens and Reform, it's brave to think that the Greens would win given how the rest of the Labour vote broke.
But that’s a completely irrelevant scenario. They are in the picture
Besides. I think it’s reasonable to assume that most people who are sympathetic to Reform will have voted for them. Those left are probably varying degrees of woke.
Wakefield first 6 councillors across 2 wards gone to Reform, Labour were 60%+ in the previous equivalent wards
7 wards counted: 19 Reform, 2 LD (Lab -18, LD -1)
But it's not Labour voters going to Reform, it's secret Tory voters going to Reform and Labour voters going to the Greens. Don't you see that Labour losing 18 seats to Reform is actually a disaster for the Tories!
Well, Curtice certainly seems to believe it isn't entirely a result of direct Lab to Reform switching. Considering the average Reform voter either doesn't know immigration is falling and about Mahmood's proposed ILR reforms, or don't think it's anywhere enough, that suggests that maybe Lab's attempt at wooing Reform voters isn't working.
I think Curtice is chatting shit tbh, it's clear that white working class Labour voters are turning out for Reform. Labour are being ripped in two atm, the Greens are nipping at their trendy wanky side and have clearly taken a big chunk of the Muslim vote and Reform have taken a big bite out of the white working class vote.
I really think Labour could be headed for extinction as a party because now there's two parties that appeal to their coalition but don't need to compromise to each side of it. Reform don't need to weigh up what a tough immigration and pushing for net emigration will do for Muslim/Lefty voters and the Greens don't give a flying fuck about what the working classes think about high immigration policies they favour.
I agree. I admire Curtice but he seems to have got this curiously and obviously wrong
It’s a mixed bag . In some areas there’s a wholesale shift from Labour to Reform . In others the movement from Labour to Green is the decisive factor in them losing the seat.
Westminster polling typically shows Reform’s vote is overwhelmingly prior Reform voters or those who have never voted before. The main driver of their vote share is that enthusiasm is much higher for them than for other parties.
Obviously we have no firm idea what is going on, but I’d wager serious money that swings from other parties is not the main cause of what we are seeing today.
It's rather like the Libs in the mid '60's. And that all melted away like snow in summer.
I may resign my Labour membership. The fact the cabinet are allowing this to continue is making me think I should either vote Tory next time or spoil my ballot.
Few Labour MPs now coming out to say Starmer should resign, those who are are on the left but they would need to see Labour losing more votes to the Greens than they have done to really press for a Rayner leadership challenge. Labour votes going Tory just boosts Streeting but you may want that, so far Tories and Labour clearly ahead of the Greens if behind Reform
What we are seeing - tragically - is the continued Ulsterisation of the country
David Betz, the guy predicting civil strife, is claiming vindication based on these results. When asked for timing on the commencement of this strife, he says this:
"I think it is likely within two years, very likely within five, and close on inevitable with ten."
What we are seeing - tragically - is the continued Ulsterisation of the country
David Betz, the guy predicting civil strife, is claiming vindication based on these results. When asked for timing on the commencement of this strife, he says this:
"I think it is likely within two years, very likely within five, and close on inevitable with ten."
Do we have any news from Aberdeen? Hearing rumours of a crossover, involving Flynn
The leader of the SNP in the Westminster (UK) Parliament, Stephen Flynn MP, has won a seat in the Holyrood (Scottish) Parliament, taking the constituency of Aberdeen Deeside and North Kincardine and becoming Stephen Flynn MSP
Amazing, the Keir comeback must be on. Or is it because it is... thirds ?
Lab hold a ward (Crookes) in Sheffield.
It's because thirds. Though Lab were vulnerable in Bury and managed to hold enough seats. The MEN thinks control of the council is still in the balance in Rochdale.
I used to live in Crookes. See what I said earlier about the new Labour heartland. Comfortable, white, urban but not too urban, fashionable but not too fashionable.
What we are seeing - tragically - is the continued Ulsterisation of the country
David Betz, the guy predicting civil strife, is claiming vindication based on these results. When asked for timing on the commencement of this strife, he says this:
"I think it is likely within two years, very likely within five, and close on inevitable with ten."
Amazing, the Keir comeback must be on. Or is it because it is... thirds ?
Lab hold a ward (Crookes) in Sheffield.
It's because thirds. Though Lab were vulnerable in Bury and managed to hold enough seats. The MEN thinks control of the council is still in the balance in Rochdale.
I used to live in Crookes. See what I said earlier about the new Labour heartland. Comfortable, white, urban but not too urban, fashionable but not too fashionable.
When did you live in Crookes, I lived there in around 2006 I think or so.
I may resign my Labour membership. The fact the cabinet are allowing this to continue is making me think I should either vote Tory next time or spoil my ballot.
Wait a while. If you resign and they do grow a spine then you'll not get to have a say.
What we are seeing - tragically - is the continued Ulsterisation of the country
David Betz, the guy predicting civil strife, is claiming vindication based on these results. When asked for timing on the commencement of this strife, he says this:
"I think it is likely within two years, very likely within five, and close on inevitable with ten."
Heck, Almondbury gone all Reform - that was a pretty confident LD defence, should've been enough good areas for them to counteract the more Reformy areas.
Amazing, the Keir comeback must be on. Or is it because it is... thirds ?
Lab hold a ward (Crookes) in Sheffield.
It's because thirds. Though Lab were vulnerable in Bury and managed to hold enough seats. The MEN thinks control of the council is still in the balance in Rochdale.
I used to live in Crookes. See what I said earlier about the new Labour heartland. Comfortable, white, urban but not too urban, fashionable but not too fashionable.
When did you live in Crookes, I lived there in around 2006 I think or so.
Just had a quick look at my old stomping ground, Kingston. So far 21/21 LD but no change there. What has changed is that the Greens are often in second, in wards where when I was a boy were ultra-safe Tory (like 50%+ of the vote), and the Tories are now duking it out with Labour and Reform for 3rd, 4th and 5th.
I may resign my Labour membership. The fact the cabinet are allowing this to continue is making me think I should either vote Tory next time or spoil my ballot.
I find it easier to not be a member in the first place. It's a bit more productive to accept the fact that one cannot change anything and instead concentrate on observing things correctly. It's kind of an occupational hazard.
What we are seeing - tragically - is the continued Ulsterisation of the country
David Betz, the guy predicting civil strife, is claiming vindication based on these results. When asked for timing on the commencement of this strife, he says this:
"I think it is likely within two years, very likely within five, and close on inevitable with ten."
It's "strife" now is it? Before he was predicting civil war.
Precisely because he is not sure himself. He says it is most likely to be something like The Troubles in Ulster, a chronic state of insecurity and insurrection, with no go areas and a lot of violence, but the government does not, ultimately, lose control. However he does not rule out something much worse
"...The conclusion "Reform won the seat from Lab therefore biggest vote swing is Lab to Reform" does not follow from this pattern. There are multiple vote flows here: Lab to Grn, Lab to abstain, Lab to Ref, Con to Ref, abstain to Ref...Lab to Ref is only one part of this, not typically the largest."
On the island, there has been a batch of Reform gains from the Tories, but the LDs have held all their seats, and there have been more Indy holds. For largest group, Reform and the Indy’s are running each other close, but I think there are enough of the other parties to keep the council NOC whatever happens, now.
Given that the Tory group leader committed publicly not to do any deal with Reform, hopefully that will keep the council out of their hands. A real result for the island - tactical voting especially among centre-left voters appears to be delivering.
Amazing, the Keir comeback must be on. Or is it because it is... thirds ?
Lab hold a ward (Crookes) in Sheffield.
It's because thirds. Though Lab were vulnerable in Bury and managed to hold enough seats. The MEN thinks control of the council is still in the balance in Rochdale.
I used to live in Crookes. See what I said earlier about the new Labour heartland. Comfortable, white, urban but not too urban, fashionable but not too fashionable.
When did you live in Crookes, I lived there in around 2006 I think or so.
I also used to live in Crookes
I lives on Toyne St and then at the top end of Springvale Rd. Have you been back recently? I was there laat summer. Several of the pubs - the Punch Bowl, the Cobden View, the Closed Shop, the Hallamshire Hotel - have gone fromok to brilliant. I loved it there. The views!
Amazing, the Keir comeback must be on. Or is it because it is... thirds ?
Lab hold a ward (Crookes) in Sheffield.
It's because thirds. Though Lab were vulnerable in Bury and managed to hold enough seats. The MEN thinks control of the council is still in the balance in Rochdale.
I used to live in Crookes. See what I said earlier about the new Labour heartland. Comfortable, white, urban but not too urban, fashionable but not too fashionable.
When did you live in Crookes, I lived there in around 2006 I think or so.
Comments
Burnham still a rival but he is not an MP and until he is cannot challenge SKS
I'm enjoying speculating. Surely Lab will retain it? But lots of people have been thinking that about their locality. And if not Lab, who? I'm not aware of much Reform presence, and we're possibly a little too comfortable to be natural Reform territory (though a lot of the ward is ex local authority). And we're not fashionable enough to be Green. Once upon a time the Tories could have won here, but that was probably 40 years ago. I'm agog.
Tories pledge to fight Oxford Street pedestrianisation after winning back Westminster
Great the NIMBYs are back. Why oppose this? Utterly nuts
Late last month I had discussions with some people who used to work in the Westminster village and when discussing both the immediate future and the long term future they proposed a suggestion that startled me.
Their prediction is that in the next eighteen months or so if the polls remain roughly where they are now then the political discussions will turn to pacts and formal alliances, the only question is which side will propose it first, the Greens/Labour/Lib Dems or Reform/The Tories.
The trigger might even be this week’s local elections when the limits of first past the post are exposed, where for example in traditional Tory areas might wake up with Green councillors thank to a split vote between the Tories and Reform. Reform’s detention centre policies might also be a trigger for the centre-left. If one bloc starts forming an alliance then the other one will too.
https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/05/06/say-hello-to-a-future-if-not-the-next-tory-leader/
Dumbarton result - easy win for SNP 41% to Lab 25%, Reform got 19%.
Jackie Baillie out. Looking like a rout for Labour
SNP hold
So far:
Reform 31 (+31) (63 seats total)
LD 2 (-1)
Lab 0 (-28)
Con 0 (-2)
Labour's best hope of breaking the duck was in one or two of the Wakefield City constituencies and we haven't counted those yet. Possibly Tory best remaining chance still to come as well.
Not.
Ok looks like SNP around 60 seats, still falling short of a majority
It's been weird politically forever... Partly the "red wall town stuck on the south coast" thing, partly the many rises and falls of Peter Chegwyn, who has been Mr Liberal Gosport since the 1980s. Very old-school pavement politics guy. Must be getting on a lot by now.
Basically played the local resentments card brilliantly for... blimey, about 40 years. Not like most Lib Dems nationwide. And now he's been outgunned by someone doing a similar shtick with national reach and budget.
Oh, the many years that many many Gosport Tories hoped we had put him in the bin. Maybe he now is, but not in the way we might have hoped.
GRN: 29.1% (+12.2)
LAB: 28.0% (-55.1)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2026/scotland/constituencies/S16000162
Lab hold a ward (Crookes) in Sheffield.
Tom Hunt lost to the Greens.
Scrub that Dumbarton result, it doesn't seem to be verified anywhere
Accidentally wandered into BlueSky. Thick as pigshit.
There's a mix of 1, 2, and 3 member wards.
David Betz, the guy predicting civil strife, is claiming vindication based on these results. When asked for timing on the commencement of this strife, he says this:
"I think it is likely within two years, very likely within five, and close on inevitable with ten."
https://x.com/DavidBe31099196/status/2052723144297783464?s=20
The Lib Dems hold my council seat.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cp8pvyy4pq1o
I think he will now resign his MP constituency because dual mandates aren't legal in the UK. But happy to be contradicted if wrong
The MEN thinks control of the council is still in the balance in Rochdale.
I used to live in Crookes. See what I said earlier about the new Labour heartland. Comfortable, white, urban but not too urban, fashionable but not too fashionable.
They’ve even lost a seat to Labour !
The Lib Dems I spoke to during the campaign were worried.
Newport Reform 25,571 Plaid 23,069, Labour, 10,622, Conservatives 8,847, Greens 5,898, LDs 2,683, Heritage 349
Heck, Almondbury gone all Reform - that was a pretty confident LD defence, should've been enough good areas for them to counteract the more Reformy areas.
So far:
Ref 9 (+9)
Grn 6 (+3)
LD 0 (-5)
Lab 0 (-4)
Con 0 (-3)
Eek - this may not as be quite a multi-way split as I thought, I still don't think a Reform majority, but it could be closer than comfortable.
,
Are we all excited?
Must be a favourable split Tory /Reform vote helping them .
Happy days
Burnham!
https://bsky.app/profile/robfordmancs.bsky.social/post/3mldr7odlxk2b
"...The conclusion "Reform won the seat from Lab therefore biggest vote swing is Lab to Reform" does not follow from this pattern. There are multiple vote flows here: Lab to Grn, Lab to abstain, Lab to Ref, Con to Ref, abstain to Ref...Lab to Ref is only one part of this, not typically the largest."
SNP 41% -7%
Labour 19% -1%
Reform 16% +16%
Cons 14% -11%
LDs 9% +3%
Greens 0.2% -1%
Given that the Tory group leader committed publicly not to do any deal with Reform, hopefully that will keep the council out of their hands. A real result for the island - tactical voting especially among centre-left voters appears to be delivering.
Have you been back recently? I was there laat summer. Several of the pubs - the Punch Bowl, the Cobden View, the Closed Shop, the Hallamshire Hotel - have gone fromok to brilliant.
I loved it there. The views!
Casnewydd Islwyn
- Reform UK (2 seats : Dan Thomas, Art Wright)
- Plaid Cymru (2 seats: Peredur Griffiths, Lyn Ackerman)
- Labour (1 seat: Jayne Bryant)
- Conservative (1 seat: Natasha Asghar)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2026/wales/constituencies/W09000054