Skip to content

Noch out. Will it be curtains for Kemi? – politicalbetting.com

124»

Comments

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,498
    carnforth said:

    An official Home Office video showing the arrest of the two immigration lawyers who told asylum seekers to pretend to be gay.

    https://x.com/ukhomeoffice/status/2052082309625491896

    Imagine the handwringing if this had been under the Tories. Arresting lawyers, enemies of the people, chunter chunter chunter.
    If the allegations are true, the lawyers were instructing their clients to lie in court.

    Which is a very serious offence for a lawyer.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,371
    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @LewisJWarner
    🚨 A bombshell Birmingham poll just dropped on the eve of voting

    ➡️ RFM: 47
    👤 IND: 17
    🌹 LAB: 14
    🌍 GRN: 12
    🌳 CON: 6
    🔶 LDM: 5

    Labour faces its WORST ever result in the city

    Independents surge to become 2nd largest group

    https://x.com/LewisJWarner/status/2052086011736326290?s=20

    Can't see Reform doing that well in !Birmingham!, but who knows.
    My Dad is up tomorrow, his ward (Coventry) was held in the cataclysmic 1995 locals (Conservative) so we will see
    PollCheck are currently predicting that Reform will be the largest faction in Birmingham with 24 of the 101 seats.

    https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/locals-2026#/birmingham
    They are forecasting total fragmentation:
    Party Councillors Range Change
    Labour87–18−44
    Conservative2115–27
    Lib Dem1311–15
    Green149–20+12
    Reform2412–34+24
    Others2112–21+8
    Labour on 8 is remarkable. Truly remarkable.

    Only needs for the Tories to be a coupleof points ahed of opinion polling - shy Tories? - for them to be the biggest party.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,834
    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @LewisJWarner
    🚨 A bombshell Birmingham poll just dropped on the eve of voting

    ➡️ RFM: 47
    👤 IND: 17
    🌹 LAB: 14
    🌍 GRN: 12
    🌳 CON: 6
    🔶 LDM: 5

    Labour faces its WORST ever result in the city

    Independents surge to become 2nd largest group

    https://x.com/LewisJWarner/status/2052086011736326290?s=20

    Can't see Reform doing that well in !Birmingham!, but who knows.
    My Dad is up tomorrow, his ward (Coventry) was held in the cataclysmic 1995 locals (Conservative) so we will see
    PollCheck are currently predicting that Reform will be the largest faction in Birmingham with 24 of the 101 seats.

    https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/locals-2026#/birmingham
    They are forecasting total fragmentation:
    Party Councillors Range Change
    Labour87–18−44
    Conservative2115–27
    Lib Dem1311–15
    Green149–20+12
    Reform2412–34+24
    Others2112–21+8
    It will be the latest sign of Ulsterisation if Reform end up the largest party with the Gaza independents second.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,115

    Leon said:

    I don’t think SeanT is a racist.

    Isn't he that utter cad from the Spectator, constantly lurking on here and stealing ideas?

    I've seen him in Primrose Hill a couple of times. Sinister cove
    You are Sean. We all know it. Why play this silly game?

    But you’re not a racist.
    If someone once posted under their name and then chooses not to, it is incredibly rude to link them to their real identity.
    How? He doxxes himself daily.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 58,877
    Kane 1 half chance, one goal. He is in frightening form. If he stays fit England have a chance.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 5,314
    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @LewisJWarner
    🚨 A bombshell Birmingham poll just dropped on the eve of voting

    ➡️ RFM: 47
    👤 IND: 17
    🌹 LAB: 14
    🌍 GRN: 12
    🌳 CON: 6
    🔶 LDM: 5

    Labour faces its WORST ever result in the city

    Independents surge to become 2nd largest group

    https://x.com/LewisJWarner/status/2052086011736326290?s=20

    Can't see Reform doing that well in !Birmingham!, but who knows.
    My Dad is up tomorrow, his ward (Coventry) was held in the cataclysmic 1995 locals (Conservative) so we will see
    PollCheck are currently predicting that Reform will be the largest faction in Birmingham with 24 of the 101 seats.

    https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/locals-2026#/birmingham
    They are forecasting total fragmentation:
    Party Councillors Range Change
    Labour87–18−44
    Conservative2115–27
    Lib Dem1311–15
    Green149–20+12
    Reform2412–34+24
    Others2112–21+8
    It will be fascinating to see how close the actual result is to this prediction. While the methodology is pretty sound, it can't take into account the effect of local campaigning or local issues such as the bin strike, which would imply an even worse result for Labour. It also struggles to deal with the large number of independents.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,593

    Just to avoid any doxxing.

    I am banning on PB any links to articles written by Sean Thomas.

    Anyone failing to adhere to this rule will be banned.

    Can we link to any articles by Sean Bean??
    Or Mr T ?
    Or Booker T. and the M.G.s ...
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,224

    carnforth said:

    An official Home Office video showing the arrest of the two immigration lawyers who told asylum seekers to pretend to be gay.

    https://x.com/ukhomeoffice/status/2052082309625491896

    Imagine the handwringing if this had been under the Tories. Arresting lawyers, enemies of the people, chunter chunter chunter.
    If the allegations are true, the lawyers were instructing their clients to lie in court.

    Which is a very serious offence for a lawyer.
    What happens if a layman working at the law practice does the same thing?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 37,009
    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is a bit awkward for the Thatcherite economists.

    Britain has eight big North European neighbours.
    Of them Britain has,
    1/ The weakest economy.
    2/ The lowest taxes.
    3/ The lowest marginal tax rate on labour at high incomes.
    The right should be less confident sneering at the idea of "taxing for growth".

    https://x.com/thomasforth/status/2051763318222659963

    Try Switzerland, even lower taxes than the UK and higher gdp per capita than all those 8
    The argument is that low taxes do not deliver better growth.

    Eight neighbouring countries support the argument versus one not-quite neighbouring country against.

    Seems to me that the argument is pretty conclusively proven.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 37,009
    carnforth said:

    An official Home Office video showing the arrest of the two immigration lawyers who told asylum seekers to pretend to be gay.

    https://x.com/ukhomeoffice/status/2052082309625491896

    Imagine the handwringing if this had been under the Tories. Arresting lawyers, enemies of the people, chunter chunter chunter.
    The bigger scandal is that the Tories allowed this sort of thing to go on.
  • isamisam Posts: 44,230
    DavidL said:

    Kane 1 half chance, one goal. He is in frightening form. If he stays fit England have a chance.

    I backed him to score the first goal, and for there to be under 1.5 goals in the match

    Nice one Harry!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,593
    If Patel claims the entire story is fictitious, what is the purpose of a leak enquiry ?

    The FBI has launched a criminal leak investigation focusing on Atlantic magazine journalist Sarah Fitzpatrick, who wrote that deeply unflattering account of Kash Patel's work habits.

    There is deep concern about this approach among some of the FBI agents.

    https://x.com/kylegriffin1/status/2052030643752649150
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 56,832
    edited May 6
    DavidL said:

    Kane 1 half chance, one goal. He is in frightening form. If he stays fit England have a chance.

    If only creating 1 half chance in a game then that is hardly frightening form.
  • Leon_VotedForStarmerLeon_VotedForStarmer Posts: 69,000

    Leon said:

    Dopermean said:

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Does the winner of this have to actually play Arsenal for the CL? I mean it seems a slightly embarrassing formality.

    The gulf between these two sides and Arsenal is a chasm

    Wonderful to watch
    It really isn't "a chasm"

    Both these teams play in totally uncompetitve leagues. PSG are on course to easily win their 8th title in 10 years in France, Bayern are on course to VERY easily win their 9th title in 10 years. These aren't even leagues any more, they are sad parades for PSG and Bayern. It is a real problem, and why they wanted the Super League to happen

    By contrast Arsenal are just about grinding a very close victory in a vastly more competitive league, where any of five or six could win, and almost every team has money, and every match is competitive and physical. Arsenal are knackered in comparison to the French and German teams. Yet they still might win the final against PSG (or Bayern). The UCL often produces surprise winners



    That explains the success of Scottish teams in Europe ;)
    The Old Firm really should join the EPL - or work their way up from the Championship or whatever

    It would be great for all - fans, football, English football, Scottish football, European football - because Celtic and Rangers are meant to be big clubs. They have massive passionate crowds who sing excellent songs

    The only people that might complain are the owners of the biggest English clubs, who would not like the extra competition, but they have enough money, they can cope

    Imagine Rangers v Liverpool or Spurs, Celtic v City or Chelsea. They would, in a few years, be cracking matches, once Rangers and Celtic have benefited from EPL money and gotten good teams. And ultimately it would strengthen, even further, the EPL, and make it more dramatic and colourful
    Why should the second and third best teams in Scotland join, and not the team that is above them in the table?
    Perhaps they should have a play off in Scotland every year, to see who gets the remarkable honour of playing in England the following year
  • isamisam Posts: 44,230
  • Leon_VotedForStarmerLeon_VotedForStarmer Posts: 69,000

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @LewisJWarner
    🚨 A bombshell Birmingham poll just dropped on the eve of voting

    ➡️ RFM: 47
    👤 IND: 17
    🌹 LAB: 14
    🌍 GRN: 12
    🌳 CON: 6
    🔶 LDM: 5

    Labour faces its WORST ever result in the city

    Independents surge to become 2nd largest group

    https://x.com/LewisJWarner/status/2052086011736326290?s=20

    Can't see Reform doing that well in !Birmingham!, but who knows.
    My Dad is up tomorrow, his ward (Coventry) was held in the cataclysmic 1995 locals (Conservative) so we will see
    PollCheck are currently predicting that Reform will be the largest faction in Birmingham with 24 of the 101 seats.

    https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/locals-2026#/birmingham
    They are forecasting total fragmentation:
    Party Councillors Range Change
    Labour87–18−44
    Conservative2115–27
    Lib Dem1311–15
    Green149–20+12
    Reform2412–34+24
    Others2112–21+8
    It will be the latest sign of Ulsterisation if Reform end up the largest party with the Gaza independents second.
    Brummagen is. of course, the fons et origo of the Raise the Colours campaign, with white Brummy suburbs visibly declaring their Loyalism
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,559
    edited May 6
    Whilst there's a lot of focus on Labour's collapse in Metros, the figures on Pollcheck for the Tories in Norfolk, Suffolk and Essex make grim reading.

    Lose 49 of 50 in Norfolk. 45 of 49 in Essex. And all 42 in Suffolk.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,115
    Going to be a disaster for Labour tomorrow.

    But I still have them as favourites for 2029.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,748
    isam said:
    5pm Friday for Redbridge??
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 28,755
    dixiedean said:

    Whilst there's a lot of focus on Labour's collapse in Metros, the figures on Pollcheck for the Tories in Norfolk, Suffolk and Essex make grim reading.

    Lose 49 of 50 in Norfolk. 45 of 49 in Essex. And all 42 in Suffolk.

    Wesfolk is doing fine. As is Norrex.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,224

    Going to be a disaster for Labour tomorrow.

    But I still have them as favourites for 2029.

    Largest party or majority?
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,224
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @LewisJWarner
    🚨 A bombshell Birmingham poll just dropped on the eve of voting

    ➡️ RFM: 47
    👤 IND: 17
    🌹 LAB: 14
    🌍 GRN: 12
    🌳 CON: 6
    🔶 LDM: 5

    Labour faces its WORST ever result in the city

    Independents surge to become 2nd largest group

    https://x.com/LewisJWarner/status/2052086011736326290?s=20

    Can't see Reform doing that well in !Birmingham!, but who knows.
    My Dad is up tomorrow, his ward (Coventry) was held in the cataclysmic 1995 locals (Conservative) so we will see
    PollCheck are currently predicting that Reform will be the largest faction in Birmingham with 24 of the 101 seats.

    https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/locals-2026#/birmingham
    They are forecasting total fragmentation:
    Party Councillors Range Change
    Labour87–18−44
    Conservative2115–27
    Lib Dem1311–15
    Green149–20+12
    Reform2412–34+24
    Others2112–21+8
    It will be the latest sign of Ulsterisation if Reform end up the largest party with the Gaza independents second.
    Brummagen is. of course, the fons et origo of the Raise the Colours campaign, with white Brummy suburbs visibly declaring their Loyalism
    Plus bonus RoI. If I may use tomorrow's quota early:



    Saw a few UK-Jamaica combos too when I was there last week.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 5,205

    DavidL said:

    Does the winner of this have to actually play Arsenal for the CL? I mean it seems a slightly embarrassing formality.

    The gulf between these two sides and Arsenal is a chasm

    Wonderful to watch
    But what if Citeh do chase down Arsenal for the PL title, and yet Arsenal as underdogs go on to win the Champions League?

    Guardiola would change places with Arteta in an instant.

    Guardiola really REALLY wants to win the CL, the one trophy eluding him. Yet he is winning the PL so regularly that you wonder whether he cares much about it anymore.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 43,511
    Nigelb said:

    If Patel claims the entire story is fictitious, what is the purpose of a leak enquiry ?

    The FBI has launched a criminal leak investigation focusing on Atlantic magazine journalist Sarah Fitzpatrick, who wrote that deeply unflattering account of Kash Patel's work habits.

    There is deep concern about this approach among some of the FBI agents.

    https://x.com/kylegriffin1/status/2052030643752649150

    Oops

    https://bsky.app/profile/justinbaragona.bsky.social/post/3ml7nnpsjnc2r
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,115
    carnforth said:

    Going to be a disaster for Labour tomorrow.

    But I still have them as favourites for 2029.

    Largest party or majority?
    Largest party certainly but majority seems probable.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,320
    Ironically Starmer is banking on an EU reset to save his job .

    With speeches laying out much closer ties . He should have gone further originally and not waited till the removal men were on the way to No 10.

  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 5,205
    dixiedean said:

    Man City win the title after an Arsenal draw.
    Women's.

    And Wolves are playing in the Second Tier next year.

    Women's also. Got promoted on Monday.

    We won't mention what happened to the other lot.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,224

    carnforth said:

    Going to be a disaster for Labour tomorrow.

    But I still have them as favourites for 2029.

    Largest party or majority?
    Largest party certainly but majority seems probable.
    Bold.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,848
    dixiedean said:

    Whilst there's a lot of focus on Labour's collapse in Metros, the figures on Pollcheck for the Tories in Norfolk, Suffolk and Essex make grim reading.

    Lose 49 of 50 in Norfolk. 45 of 49 in Essex. And all 42 in Suffolk.

    Much like the county elections last year, not much of a surprise given the Tories are polling half the 36% NEV they got in 2021 when the counties were last up. The districts and London boroughs will be a bit better for them as Labour won the NEV when they were last up in 2022
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,848
    edited May 6

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is a bit awkward for the Thatcherite economists.

    Britain has eight big North European neighbours.
    Of them Britain has,
    1/ The weakest economy.
    2/ The lowest taxes.
    3/ The lowest marginal tax rate on labour at high incomes.
    The right should be less confident sneering at the idea of "taxing for growth".

    https://x.com/thomasforth/status/2051763318222659963

    Try Switzerland, even lower taxes than the UK and higher gdp per capita than all those 8
    The argument is that low taxes do not deliver better growth.

    Eight neighbouring countries support the argument versus one not-quite neighbouring country against.

    Seems to me that the argument is pretty conclusively proven.
    No it isn't, Switzerland has faster growth than its neighbours and us, as does uber low tax Singapore and the UAE and the US also has faster growth than higher tax the UK and most of Europe now
  • RogerRoger Posts: 23,128
    edited May 6
    nico67 said:

    Ironically Starmer is banking on an EU reset to save his job .

    With speeches laying out much closer ties . He should have gone further originally and not waited till the removal men were on the way to No 10.

    Quite right. He;'s never had the courage to go the whole way on anything. That's why so few have respect or affection for him. What does 'getting closer to the EU' even mean? He should have said 'Rejoin' when he had the numbers and support to do it. All I know about his EU policy are the things he WONT do. No Single Market No Customs Union. The mans a soggy dishcloth
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 20,926
    edited May 6
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is a bit awkward for the Thatcherite economists.

    Britain has eight big North European neighbours.
    Of them Britain has,
    1/ The weakest economy.
    2/ The lowest taxes.
    3/ The lowest marginal tax rate on labour at high incomes.
    The right should be less confident sneering at the idea of "taxing for growth".

    https://x.com/thomasforth/status/2051763318222659963

    Try Switzerland, even lower taxes than the UK and higher gdp per capita than all those 8
    The argument is that low taxes do not deliver better growth.

    Eight neighbouring countries support the argument versus one not-quite neighbouring country against.

    Seems to me that the argument is pretty conclusively proven.
    No it isn't, Switzerland has faster growth than its neighbours and us, as does uber low tax Singapore and the UAE and the US also has faster growth than higher tax the UK and most of Europe now
    But the money in the US is all going to, like, 15 people.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,848
    edited May 6

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is a bit awkward for the Thatcherite economists.

    Britain has eight big North European neighbours.
    Of them Britain has,
    1/ The weakest economy.
    2/ The lowest taxes.
    3/ The lowest marginal tax rate on labour at high incomes.
    The right should be less confident sneering at the idea of "taxing for growth".

    https://x.com/thomasforth/status/2051763318222659963

    Try Switzerland, even lower taxes than the UK and higher gdp per capita than all those 8
    The argument is that low taxes do not deliver better growth.

    Eight neighbouring countries support the argument versus one not-quite neighbouring country against.

    Seems to me that the argument is pretty conclusively proven.
    No it isn't, Switzerland has faster growth than its neighbours and us, as does uber low tax Singapore and the UAE and the US also has faster growth than higher tax the UK and most of Europe now
    But the money in the US is all going to, like, 15 people.
    No it isn't
    https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/american-wages-are-higher-than-british-by-more-than-you-think.

    Though median house prices in the UK are higher than the US on some measures, especially in London and the home counties
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,115
    carnforth said:

    carnforth said:

    Going to be a disaster for Labour tomorrow.

    But I still have them as favourites for 2029.

    Largest party or majority?
    Largest party certainly but majority seems probable.
    Bold.
    I’m happy to re-assess later on but largest party remains my basic bet.
  • The_WoodpeckerThe_Woodpecker Posts: 577

    DavidL said:

    Does the winner of this have to actually play Arsenal for the CL? I mean it seems a slightly embarrassing formality.

    The gulf between these two sides and Arsenal is a chasm

    Wonderful to watch
    But what if Citeh do chase down Arsenal for the PL title, and yet Arsenal as underdogs go on to win the Champions League?

    Guardiola would change places with Arteta in an instant.

    Guardiola really REALLY wants to win the CL, the one trophy eluding him. Yet he is winning the PL so regularly that you wonder whether he cares much about it anymore.
    Eluding him?? He won it 3 years ago and twice with Barca.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 23,128
    Nigelb said:

    If Patel claims the entire story is fictitious, what is the purpose of a leak enquiry ?

    The FBI has launched a criminal leak investigation focusing on Atlantic magazine journalist Sarah Fitzpatrick, who wrote that deeply unflattering account of Kash Patel's work habits.

    There is deep concern about this approach among some of the FBI agents.

    https://x.com/kylegriffin1/status/2052030643752649150

    Some hilarious stuff about his drinking habits and his new girlfriend and his travel with her. My two favourite podcasters are obsessed.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 20,926
    edited May 6
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is a bit awkward for the Thatcherite economists.

    Britain has eight big North European neighbours.
    Of them Britain has,
    1/ The weakest economy.
    2/ The lowest taxes.
    3/ The lowest marginal tax rate on labour at high incomes.
    The right should be less confident sneering at the idea of "taxing for growth".

    https://x.com/thomasforth/status/2051763318222659963

    Try Switzerland, even lower taxes than the UK and higher gdp per capita than all those 8
    The argument is that low taxes do not deliver better growth.

    Eight neighbouring countries support the argument versus one not-quite neighbouring country against.

    Seems to me that the argument is pretty conclusively proven.
    No it isn't, Switzerland has faster growth than its neighbours and us, as does uber low tax Singapore and the UAE and the US also has faster growth than higher tax the UK and most of Europe now
    But the money in the US is all going to, like, 15 people.
    No it isn't
    https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/american-wages-are-higher-than-british-by-more-than-you-think.

    Though median house prices in the UK are higher than the US on some measures, especially in London and the home counties
    That URL tackles the fact that Americans have to pay for healthcare. To do this, it says, “for the significant majority of [US] full time employees, health care insurance is something they gain from their employer.” Thus, it argues, they don’t have any costs. But it fails to mention these people still typically have out of pocket healthcare expenses as well, so that’s misleading.

    Moreover, https://www.william-russell.com/blog/health-insurance-usa-cost/ notes that only 12% of Americans have 100% of their health insurance covered by their employer. The average US employee pays 22% of their insurance costs… plus there are the out of pocket expenses I mentioned.

    So, really, this doesn’t give me the impression that the Adam Smith Institute is being particularly honest.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,559
    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Whilst there's a lot of focus on Labour's collapse in Metros, the figures on Pollcheck for the Tories in Norfolk, Suffolk and Essex make grim reading.

    Lose 49 of 50 in Norfolk. 45 of 49 in Essex. And all 42 in Suffolk.

    Much like the county elections last year, not much of a surprise given the Tories are polling half the 36% NEV they got in 2021 when the counties were last up. The districts and London boroughs will be a bit better for them as Labour won the NEV when they were last up in 2022
    It may not be much of a surprise for thee and me.
    But I reckon the results will come as a huge shock to all those who pay little attention.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,848

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is a bit awkward for the Thatcherite economists.

    Britain has eight big North European neighbours.
    Of them Britain has,
    1/ The weakest economy.
    2/ The lowest taxes.
    3/ The lowest marginal tax rate on labour at high incomes.
    The right should be less confident sneering at the idea of "taxing for growth".

    https://x.com/thomasforth/status/2051763318222659963

    Try Switzerland, even lower taxes than the UK and higher gdp per capita than all those 8
    The argument is that low taxes do not deliver better growth.

    Eight neighbouring countries support the argument versus one not-quite neighbouring country against.

    Seems to me that the argument is pretty conclusively proven.
    No it isn't, Switzerland has faster growth than its neighbours and us, as does uber low tax Singapore and the UAE and the US also has faster growth than higher tax the UK and most of Europe now
    But the money in the US is all going to, like, 15 people.
    No it isn't
    https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/american-wages-are-higher-than-british-by-more-than-you-think.

    Though median house prices in the UK are higher than the US on some measures, especially in London and the home counties
    That URL tackles the fact that Americans have to pay for healthcare. To do this, it says, “for the significant majority of [US] full time employees, health care insurance is something they gain from their employer.” Thus, it argues, they don’t have any costs. But it fails to mention these people still typically have out of pocket healthcare expenses as well, so that’s misleading.

    Moreover, https://www.william-russell.com/blog/health-insurance-usa-cost/ notes that only 12% of Americans have 100% of their health insurance covered by their employer. The average US employee pays 22% of their insurance costs… plus there are the out of pocket expenses I mentioned.

    So, really, this doesn’t give me the impression that the Adam Smith Institute is being particularly honest.
    Yes we get universal public healthcare but we also pay for it through taxes and with less choice than insurance funded healthcare
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,848
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Whilst there's a lot of focus on Labour's collapse in Metros, the figures on Pollcheck for the Tories in Norfolk, Suffolk and Essex make grim reading.

    Lose 49 of 50 in Norfolk. 45 of 49 in Essex. And all 42 in Suffolk.

    Much like the county elections last year, not much of a surprise given the Tories are polling half the 36% NEV they got in 2021 when the counties were last up. The districts and London boroughs will be a bit better for them as Labour won the NEV when they were last up in 2022
    It may not be much of a surprise for thee and me.
    But I reckon the results will come as a huge shock to all those who pay little attention.
    I doubt it, most voters are expecting Reform to win tomorrow as they did last year
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,559

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is a bit awkward for the Thatcherite economists.

    Britain has eight big North European neighbours.
    Of them Britain has,
    1/ The weakest economy.
    2/ The lowest taxes.
    3/ The lowest marginal tax rate on labour at high incomes.
    The right should be less confident sneering at the idea of "taxing for growth".

    https://x.com/thomasforth/status/2051763318222659963

    Try Switzerland, even lower taxes than the UK and higher gdp per capita than all those 8
    The argument is that low taxes do not deliver better growth.

    Eight neighbouring countries support the argument versus one not-quite neighbouring country against.

    Seems to me that the argument is pretty conclusively proven.
    No it isn't, Switzerland has faster growth than its neighbours and us, as does uber low tax Singapore and the UAE and the US also has faster growth than higher tax the UK and most of Europe now
    But the money in the US is all going to, like, 15 people.
    No it isn't
    https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/american-wages-are-higher-than-british-by-more-than-you-think.

    Though median house prices in the UK are higher than the US on some measures, especially in London and the home counties
    That URL tackles the fact that Americans have to pay for healthcare. To do this, it says, “for the significant majority of [US] full time employees, health care insurance is something they gain from their employer.” Thus, it argues, they don’t have any costs. But it fails to mention these people still typically have out of pocket healthcare expenses as well, so that’s misleading.

    Moreover, https://www.william-russell.com/blog/health-insurance-usa-cost/ notes that only 12% of Americans have 100% of their health insurance covered by their employer. The average US employee pays 22% of their insurance costs… plus there are the out of pocket expenses I mentioned.

    So, really, this doesn’t give me the impression that the Adam Smith Institute is being particularly honest.
    TIL. Despite having a doctorate in neuroscience, Mayim Bialik took the role of Amy Farrah-Fowler in the Big Bang Theory primarily because her medical insurance was about to run out.
  • PJHPJH Posts: 1,137

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is a bit awkward for the Thatcherite economists.

    Britain has eight big North European neighbours.
    Of them Britain has,
    1/ The weakest economy.
    2/ The lowest taxes.
    3/ The lowest marginal tax rate on labour at high incomes.
    The right should be less confident sneering at the idea of "taxing for growth".

    https://x.com/thomasforth/status/2051763318222659963

    Try Switzerland, even lower taxes than the UK and higher gdp per capita than all those 8
    The argument is that low taxes do not deliver better growth.

    Eight neighbouring countries support the argument versus one not-quite neighbouring country against.

    Seems to me that the argument is pretty conclusively proven.
    No it isn't, Switzerland has faster growth than its neighbours and us, as does uber low tax Singapore and the UAE and the US also has faster growth than higher tax the UK and most of Europe now
    But the money in the US is all going to, like, 15 people.
    No it isn't
    https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/american-wages-are-higher-than-british-by-more-than-you-think.

    Though median house prices in the UK are higher than the US on some measures, especially in London and the home counties
    That URL tackles the fact that Americans have to pay for healthcare. To do this, it says, “for the significant majority of [US] full time employees, health care insurance is something they gain from their employer.” Thus, it argues, they don’t have any costs. But it fails to mention these people still typically have out of pocket healthcare expenses as well, so that’s misleading.

    Moreover, https://www.william-russell.com/blog/health-insurance-usa-cost/ notes that only 12% of Americans have 100% of their health insurance covered by their employer. The average US employee pays 22% of their insurance costs… plus there are the out of pocket expenses I mentioned.

    So, really, this doesn’t give me the impression that the Adam Smith Institute is being particularly honest.
    As an example, my American friend had to pay around $600 last year for vaccinations to travel to Brazil, as they weren't covered by insurance. Mine cost £75 because only one wasn't free under the NHS
  • Penddu2Penddu2 Posts: 931
    rcs1000 said:

    Cicero said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Well I’ll be voting Lib Dem tomorrow in Newcastle.

    I'm so sorry.
    We will see, but I think OGH may be feeling quite chipper over the weekend...
    Oh, I think you're right.

    The LDs will have a decent Thursday. (Or technically early hours of Friday through to the end of Saturday.)
    Not in Cymru...
  • Penddu2Penddu2 Posts: 931
    rcs1000 said:

    Taz said:

    isam said:

    Can somebody explain the fascination with Katie Lam? Some fellow PBers worship her. The press promote her as an (the?) heir to Thatcher. I’m at a loss to explain or understand her appeal. Im not sure that I’ve ever heard her speak.

    Now don’t all rush to condemn me for ignorance or naïveté. I hold multiple doctorates, run multiple businesses and come from a political background. I just do not understand the so-called appeal of Lam. Explain it to me in simple terms.

    The media and PB are desperate for another Thatcher. Katie Lam is currently the closest. Therefore, said media and PB contributors are bigging up Katie Lam.
    Any relation of Nancy?
    Bamber's daughter
    Jeremy Bamber ?
    Bamber Gascoigne?
    Bamber Harris
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 28,755
    edited May 6
    "...OK, not that anyone asked, but let me just explain why my takes re: Tesla stans are what they are and why they're so pointed. I ended up in conversation with someone who is a pretty big deal in Tesla circles. Had influence with Elon etc. He didn't know the words "Alpitronic Hypercharger"..."

    🧵

    https://bsky.app/profile/techconnectify.bsky.social/post/3mihxdt2bgk2y
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 28,755
    Penddu2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Taz said:

    isam said:

    Can somebody explain the fascination with Katie Lam? Some fellow PBers worship her. The press promote her as an (the?) heir to Thatcher. I’m at a loss to explain or understand her appeal. Im not sure that I’ve ever heard her speak.

    Now don’t all rush to condemn me for ignorance or naïveté. I hold multiple doctorates, run multiple businesses and come from a political background. I just do not understand the so-called appeal of Lam. Explain it to me in simple terms.

    The media and PB are desperate for another Thatcher. Katie Lam is currently the closest. Therefore, said media and PB contributors are bigging up Katie Lam.
    Any relation of Nancy?
    Bamber's daughter
    Jeremy Bamber ?
    Bamber Gascoigne?
    Bamber Harris
    Bomber Harris
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 5,492
    Some pollsters are going to look silly with their Scottish predictions, come Friday.
    More in Common predict 43 SNP MSPs,
    Ipsos 54,
    Find Out Now 65,
    Norstat 55,
    Survation 60

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,793

    Some pollsters are going to look silly with their Scottish predictions, come Friday.
    More in Common predict 43 SNP MSPs,
    Ipsos 54,
    Find Out Now 65,
    Norstat 55,
    Survation 60

    Well, for the observer it makes it more exciting at least.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,793
    isam said:
    At least there's still some overnight count supporting returning officers.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,371

    Some pollsters are going to look silly with their Scottish predictions, come Friday.
    More in Common predict 43 SNP MSPs,
    Ipsos 54,
    Find Out Now 65,
    Norstat 55,
    Survation 60

    If 10 seats are within the margin of error - what, 3.3%? - then not so much. Generaaly agreed there are quite a number of seats where the winner is not obvious currently.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,834
    https://x.com/itvpeston/status/2052125692209316071

    “I’m a human being. I’m fallible”

    Green Party Leader @ZackPolanski admits he wrongly claimed the Golders Green terror suspect was handcuffed, saying it is important to be clear when he makes a mistake
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,224
    edited May 6
    theProle said:

    PJH said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is a bit awkward for the Thatcherite economists.

    Britain has eight big North European neighbours.
    Of them Britain has,
    1/ The weakest economy.
    2/ The lowest taxes.
    3/ The lowest marginal tax rate on labour at high incomes.
    The right should be less confident sneering at the idea of "taxing for growth".

    https://x.com/thomasforth/status/2051763318222659963

    Try Switzerland, even lower taxes than the UK and higher gdp per capita than all those 8
    The argument is that low taxes do not deliver better growth.

    Eight neighbouring countries support the argument versus one not-quite neighbouring country against.

    Seems to me that the argument is pretty conclusively proven.
    No it isn't, Switzerland has faster growth than its neighbours and us, as does uber low tax Singapore and the UAE and the US also has faster growth than higher tax the UK and most of Europe now
    But the money in the US is all going to, like, 15 people.
    No it isn't
    https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/american-wages-are-higher-than-british-by-more-than-you-think.

    Though median house prices in the UK are higher than the US on some measures, especially in London and the home counties
    That URL tackles the fact that Americans have to pay for healthcare. To do this, it says, “for the significant majority of [US] full time employees, health care insurance is something they gain from their employer.” Thus, it argues, they don’t have any costs. But it fails to mention these people still typically have out of pocket healthcare expenses as well, so that’s misleading.

    Moreover, https://www.william-russell.com/blog/health-insurance-usa-cost/ notes that only 12% of Americans have 100% of their health insurance covered by their employer. The average US employee pays 22% of their insurance costs… plus there are the out of pocket expenses I mentioned.

    So, really, this doesn’t give me the impression that the Adam Smith Institute is being particularly honest.
    As an example, my American friend had to pay around $600 last year for vaccinations to travel to Brazil, as they weren't covered by insurance. Mine cost £75 because only one wasn't free under the NHS
    Bit of a tangent to your point, but this (unusually) is an example of where even the US system is better than ours.

    Assuming the $600 is a roughly accurate actual cost of the jabs (although knowing the US, half of it is probably the insurance premium for the doctor administering the jabs), and also assuming these aren't jabs you should have in the UK anyway, why on earth is the UK tax payers forking out for them? They should surely be one of the costs of going to Brazil, just like the plane ticket, or the hotels.

    One of the reasons the UK government is broke is that we're forever subsidising all sorts of random stuff that people should be paying for directly.

    Presumably because we don't want people coming back with tropical diseases and spreading them around...

    Though perhaps the country wouldn't let them in without the certificate of vaccination?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,424
    edited May 7

    isam said:
    5pm Friday for Redbridge??
    Makes a change from 5am Friday, which was when I typically got elected. Having started campaigning at 5am Thursday.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,593
    edited May 7

    Reminder: There is no American health care system; instead there are multiple health care systems.

    The largest of these is Medicare, for older people and some people with disabilities.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medicare_(United_States)

    But, if you look at that diagram, you will see that it is actually a set of related systems. For the record: I am enrolled in a Medicare Advantage program (Part C). My particular plan gives me vision and dental benefits, as well as coverage for doctors and hospitals.

    The next largest is Medicaid, for poor people: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medicaid
    Except that's not a single program either; there 52 different programs (50 states, plus Puerto and DC).

    Millions of people are "dual-eligible", on both Medicare and Medicaid.

    Then there are two federal programs that are somewhat like your NHS, in that their workers are federal employees. One is for veterans: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Veterans_Health_Administration.

    And the other is for members of Indian tribes: https://www.ihs.gov/

    There are other federal programs, and some state programs. And there are thousands and thousands of private employment-linked insurance programs, ranging from what are often called Cadillac programs, to what I would call skate board programs.

    I am not, repeat not, saying this to defend our systems, but just to caution you against talking about a single American health care system.

    All that is just part of why your system is such a mess, and do difficult to navigate for a large number of people, isn't it ?

    It also lands itself to divide and rule tactics - for example Trump's recent attempts to gut veterans' healthcare - since there's less incentive for those not in the affected group to fight back.

    For the well off and/ir those with ample insurance, it can provide some of the best healthcare in the world; for others, it fails them far worse than our NHS at its most rickety.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,593
    edited May 7
    theProle said:

    PJH said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is a bit awkward for the Thatcherite economists.

    Britain has eight big North European neighbours.
    Of them Britain has,
    1/ The weakest economy.
    2/ The lowest taxes.
    3/ The lowest marginal tax rate on labour at high incomes.
    The right should be less confident sneering at the idea of "taxing for growth".

    https://x.com/thomasforth/status/2051763318222659963

    Try Switzerland, even lower taxes than the UK and higher gdp per capita than all those 8
    The argument is that low taxes do not deliver better growth.

    Eight neighbouring countries support the argument versus one not-quite neighbouring country against.

    Seems to me that the argument is pretty conclusively proven.
    No it isn't, Switzerland has faster growth than its neighbours and us, as does uber low tax Singapore and the UAE and the US also has faster growth than higher tax the UK and most of Europe now
    But the money in the US is all going to, like, 15 people.
    No it isn't
    https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/american-wages-are-higher-than-british-by-more-than-you-think.

    Though median house prices in the UK are higher than the US on some measures, especially in London and the home counties
    That URL tackles the fact that Americans have to pay for healthcare. To do this, it says, “for the significant majority of [US] full time employees, health care insurance is something they gain from their employer.” Thus, it argues, they don’t have any costs. But it fails to mention these people still typically have out of pocket healthcare expenses as well, so that’s misleading.

    Moreover, https://www.william-russell.com/blog/health-insurance-usa-cost/ notes that only 12% of Americans have 100% of their health insurance covered by their employer. The average US employee pays 22% of their insurance costs… plus there are the out of pocket expenses I mentioned.

    So, really, this doesn’t give me the impression that the Adam Smith Institute is being particularly honest.
    As an example, my American friend had to pay around $600 last year for vaccinations to travel to Brazil, as they weren't covered by insurance. Mine cost £75 because only one wasn't free under the NHS
    Bit of a tangent to your point, but this (unusually) is an example of where even the US system is better than ours.

    Assuming the $600 is a roughly accurate actual cost of the jabs (although knowing the US, half of it is probably the insurance premium for the doctor administering the jabs), and also assuming these aren't jabs you should have in the UK anyway, why on earth is the UK tax payers forking out for them? They should surely be one of the costs of going to Brazil, just like the plane ticket, or the hotels.

    One of the reasons the UK government is broke is that we're forever subsidising all sorts of random stuff that people should be paying for directly.

    Arguably because vaccination is a public good, which can help prevent the spread of disease*, whose benefits extend beyond the particular individual who is vaccinated ?

    *the extent to which this is true varies between vaccines.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 56,832
    theProle said:

    PJH said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is a bit awkward for the Thatcherite economists.

    Britain has eight big North European neighbours.
    Of them Britain has,
    1/ The weakest economy.
    2/ The lowest taxes.
    3/ The lowest marginal tax rate on labour at high incomes.
    The right should be less confident sneering at the idea of "taxing for growth".

    https://x.com/thomasforth/status/2051763318222659963

    Try Switzerland, even lower taxes than the UK and higher gdp per capita than all those 8
    The argument is that low taxes do not deliver better growth.

    Eight neighbouring countries support the argument versus one not-quite neighbouring country against.

    Seems to me that the argument is pretty conclusively proven.
    No it isn't, Switzerland has faster growth than its neighbours and us, as does uber low tax Singapore and the UAE and the US also has faster growth than higher tax the UK and most of Europe now
    But the money in the US is all going to, like, 15 people.
    No it isn't
    https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/american-wages-are-higher-than-british-by-more-than-you-think.

    Though median house prices in the UK are higher than the US on some measures, especially in London and the home counties
    That URL tackles the fact that Americans have to pay for healthcare. To do this, it says, “for the significant majority of [US] full time employees, health care insurance is something they gain from their employer.” Thus, it argues, they don’t have any costs. But it fails to mention these people still typically have out of pocket healthcare expenses as well, so that’s misleading.

    Moreover, https://www.william-russell.com/blog/health-insurance-usa-cost/ notes that only 12% of Americans have 100% of their health insurance covered by their employer. The average US employee pays 22% of their insurance costs… plus there are the out of pocket expenses I mentioned.

    So, really, this doesn’t give me the impression that the Adam Smith Institute is being particularly honest.
    As an example, my American friend had to pay around $600 last year for vaccinations to travel to Brazil, as they weren't covered by insurance. Mine cost £75 because only one wasn't free under the NHS
    Bit of a tangent to your point, but this (unusually) is an example of where even the US system is better than ours.

    Assuming the $600 is a roughly accurate actual cost of the jabs (although knowing the US, half of it is probably the insurance premium for the doctor administering the jabs), and also assuming these aren't jabs you should have in the UK anyway, why on earth is the UK tax payers forking out for them? They should surely be one of the costs of going to Brazil, just like the plane ticket, or the hotels.

    One of the reasons the UK government is broke is that we're forever subsidising all sorts of random stuff that people should be paying for directly.

    It is all explained here on the NHS website:

    https://www.nhs.uk/vaccinations/travel-vaccinations/travel-vaccination-advice/

    For Brazil its only typhoid, cholera and Hep A that that are above the routine UK vaccinations and these are cheap and done to prevent outbreaks from returning visitors.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,593
    edited May 7
    Foxy said:

    theProle said:

    PJH said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is a bit awkward for the Thatcherite economists.

    Britain has eight big North European neighbours.
    Of them Britain has,
    1/ The weakest economy.
    2/ The lowest taxes.
    3/ The lowest marginal tax rate on labour at high incomes.
    The right should be less confident sneering at the idea of "taxing for growth".

    https://x.com/thomasforth/status/2051763318222659963

    Try Switzerland, even lower taxes than the UK and higher gdp per capita than all those 8
    The argument is that low taxes do not deliver better growth.

    Eight neighbouring countries support the argument versus one not-quite neighbouring country against.

    Seems to me that the argument is pretty conclusively proven.
    No it isn't, Switzerland has faster growth than its neighbours and us, as does uber low tax Singapore and the UAE and the US also has faster growth than higher tax the UK and most of Europe now
    But the money in the US is all going to, like, 15 people.
    No it isn't
    https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/american-wages-are-higher-than-british-by-more-than-you-think.

    Though median house prices in the UK are higher than the US on some measures, especially in London and the home counties
    That URL tackles the fact that Americans have to pay for healthcare. To do this, it says, “for the significant majority of [US] full time employees, health care insurance is something they gain from their employer.” Thus, it argues, they don’t have any costs. But it fails to mention these people still typically have out of pocket healthcare expenses as well, so that’s misleading.

    Moreover, https://www.william-russell.com/blog/health-insurance-usa-cost/ notes that only 12% of Americans have 100% of their health insurance covered by their employer. The average US employee pays 22% of their insurance costs… plus there are the out of pocket expenses I mentioned.

    So, really, this doesn’t give me the impression that the Adam Smith Institute is being particularly honest.
    As an example, my American friend had to pay around $600 last year for vaccinations to travel to Brazil, as they weren't covered by insurance. Mine cost £75 because only one wasn't free under the NHS
    Bit of a tangent to your point, but this (unusually) is an example of where even the US system is better than ours.

    Assuming the $600 is a roughly accurate actual cost of the jabs (although knowing the US, half of it is probably the insurance premium for the doctor administering the jabs), and also assuming these aren't jabs you should have in the UK anyway, why on earth is the UK tax payers forking out for them? They should surely be one of the costs of going to Brazil, just like the plane ticket, or the hotels.

    One of the reasons the UK government is broke is that we're forever subsidising all sorts of random stuff that people should be paying for directly.

    It is all explained here on the NHS website:

    https://www.nhs.uk/vaccinations/travel-vaccinations/travel-vaccination-advice/

    For Brazil its only typhoid, cholera and Hep A that that are above the routine UK vaccinations and these are cheap and done to prevent outbreaks from returning visitors.

    Vaccines (and especially those which are off patent) are among the most cost effective health interventions that exist.

    The net benefit to society (and potential savings to the NHS by preventing disease) are large in comparison to the costs.

    It's a weak basis on which to attack our system (there are better ones, and better healthcare systems than those of the US to use as comparators).
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,673
    rcs1000 said:

    @rcs1000 are you planning to resolve the frequent site down errors please?

    Is the problem with posting (as some people have) or with viewing the main site.

    I'm planning a server migration this weekend, which will hopefully solve the posting issue.
    It’s a Vanilla issue. Loads of timeouts, page not found errors, the occasional Cloudflare error page saying that the Cloudlflare-to-Vanilla link is down.

    The double postings happen when you press the post comment button and it produces an error (but does actually post the comment), so people naturally hit post again.

    All of this is on vf.pb.com, not on the main page, and has been happening for around a week now.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 58,877
    At Labour HQ

    My brothers.

    I see in your eyes the same fear that would take the heart of me.

    A day may come when the courage of apparatchiks fails, when we forsake our friends and break all bonds of regulatory obsession, but it is not this day.

    An hour of wolves and shattered shields when the Age of middle class bureaucrats comes crashing down, but it is not this day!

    This day we fight!

    By all that you hold dear on this good earth, I bid you stand, Men, women and those not very sure (which is perfectly okay of course) and fill in your forms with your appropriate pronouns!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,488
    edited May 7
    Looks like Brum is set to get rid of the rubbish that's made their city hell to live in.

    Still issues around bin collection though.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 3,240
    edited May 7
    Purported Epstein suicide note released by judge. But why does it look as if it has been written by Trump*. Strange similarities

    https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/5867252-purported-epstein-suicide-note-released-by-judge/

    *Trump was President at the time.

    PS: Just a bit of fun. No rabbit holes here.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,488
    Battlebus said:

    Purported Epstein suicide note released by judge. But why does it look as if it has been written by Trump*. Strange similarities

    https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/5867252-purported-epstein-suicide-note-released-by-judge/

    *Trump was President at the time.

    PS: Just a bit of fun. No rabbit holes here.

    Was it written in wax crayon because that was the only thing he had to hand?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,424
    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @rcs1000 are you planning to resolve the frequent site down errors please?

    Is the problem with posting (as some people have) or with viewing the main site.

    I'm planning a server migration this weekend, which will hopefully solve the posting issue.
    It’s a Vanilla issue. Loads of timeouts, page not found errors, the occasional Cloudflare error page saying that the Cloudlflare-to-Vanilla link is down.

    The double postings happen when you press the post comment button and it produces an error (but does actually post the comment), so people naturally hit post again.

    All of this is on vf.pb.com, not on the main page, and has been happening for around a week now.
    And lots of ‘this page is not safe’ messages on my iPad
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 9,132
    isam said:
    I think I’ll miss the early declarations. A shame as the build-up, rumours and first results are often the most exciting moments but with the results so spread out this year I can’t really justify staying up late when a lot of the action is tomorrow.

    I might catch an early night and get up early.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 20,926
    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @rcs1000 are you planning to resolve the frequent site down errors please?

    Is the problem with posting (as some people have) or with viewing the main site.

    I'm planning a server migration this weekend, which will hopefully solve the posting issue.
    It’s a Vanilla issue. Loads of timeouts, page not found errors, the occasional Cloudflare error page saying that the Cloudlflare-to-Vanilla link is down.

    The double postings happen when you press the post comment button and it produces an error (but does actually post the comment), so people naturally hit post again.

    All of this is on vf.pb.com, not on the main page, and has been happening for around a week now.
    And lots of ‘this page is not safe’ messages on my iPad
    I think that was just your iPad protecting you from Leon’s eugenics rants.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 46,462

    Leon said:

    I don’t think SeanT is a racist.

    Isn't he that utter cad from the Spectator, constantly lurking on here and stealing ideas?

    I've seen him in Primrose Hill a couple of times. Sinister cove
    You are Sean. We all know it. Why play this silly game?

    But you’re not a racist.
    If someone once posted under their name and then chooses not to, it is incredibly rude to link them to their real identity.
    How? He doxxes himself daily.
    you are the arse of arses
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,593
    A friend of mine who works in rare books mentioned today everyone he knows is getting weird, big orders from the same buyer this week for "long tail books"—decades-old textbooks, private press niche history, unremarkable but rare titles just collecting dust.

    Obviously AI, right?

    https://x.com/PEWilliams_/status/2052178682509144371

    Tom Turvey was hired by Anthropic to obtain all the books in the world
    https://x.com/scrollvoid/status/2052204663202881724

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,424

    isam said:
    I think I’ll miss the early declarations. A shame as the build-up, rumours and first results are often the most exciting moments but with the results so spread out this year I can’t really justify staying up late when a lot of the action is tomorrow.

    I might catch an early night and get up early.
    That's probably wise - the earlier results will be some smaller councils that elect by thirds, with the key London Borough results not coming through until the sun is ready to come up. I doubt the media election programmes will have much to talk about other than repetitive speculation.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 19,647
    edited May 7
    .

    Reminder: There is no American health care system; instead there are multiple health care systems.

    The largest of these is Medicare, for older people and some people with disabilities.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medicare_(United_States)

    But, if you look at that diagram, you will see that it is actually a set of related systems. For the record: I am enrolled in a Medicare Advantage program (Part C). My particular plan gives me vision and dental benefits, as well as coverage for doctors and hospitals.

    The next largest is Medicaid, for poor people: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medicaid
    Except that's not a single program either; there 52 different programs (50 states, plus Puerto and DC).

    Millions of people are "dual-eligible", on both Medicare and Medicaid.

    Then there are two federal programs that are somewhat like your NHS, in that their workers are federal employees. One is for veterans: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Veterans_Health_Administration.

    And the other is for members of Indian tribes: https://www.ihs.gov/

    There are other federal programs, and some state programs. And there are thousands and thousands of private employment-linked insurance programs, ranging from what are often called Cadillac programs, to what I would call skate board programs.

    I am not, repeat not, saying this to defend our systems, but just to caution you against talking about a single American health care system.







    And self funded healthcare in many cases. It's good to point out the different components of the American healthcare system but they are linked. Someone at various times may be on employer insurance, self funded Obamacare, no insurance, Medicaid and Medicare. One of the big problems with the American system is that it's almost all pay as you go, there's little concept of whole life insurance. The people who can afford healthcare tend to be the well off who are young, in work and healthy, and rarely need it. So you end up with a system that costs multiples of those in other countries with mediocre health outcomes.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,593
    malcolmg said:

    Leon said:

    I don’t think SeanT is a racist.

    Isn't he that utter cad from the Spectator, constantly lurking on here and stealing ideas?

    I've seen him in Primrose Hill a couple of times. Sinister cove
    You are Sean. We all know it. Why play this silly game?

    But you’re not a racist.
    If someone once posted under their name and then chooses not to, it is incredibly rude to link them to their real identity.
    How? He doxxes himself daily.
    you are the arse of arses
    The mods have issued a ukase on the subject.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,115
    Odd hill for Polanski to die on.
  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 629
    Good morning. Remember: vote early, vote often.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 22,024
    Just voted. The Reform teller was sat in a beach chair and the Lib Dem teller was standing up. Says it all
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 4,467
    Taz said:

    ydoethur said:

    Looks like Brum is set to get rid of the rubbish that's made their city hell to live in.

    .

    Villa Park being demolished ?
    The Prince of Wales just crossed out your name on the OBE list...
    Still at least the Bluenoses won't be up to resume their perennial battle with relegation this year.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,566

    NEW THREAD

  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 22,024
    theProle said:

    PJH said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is a bit awkward for the Thatcherite economists.

    Britain has eight big North European neighbours.
    Of them Britain has,
    1/ The weakest economy.
    2/ The lowest taxes.
    3/ The lowest marginal tax rate on labour at high incomes.
    The right should be less confident sneering at the idea of "taxing for growth".

    https://x.com/thomasforth/status/2051763318222659963

    Try Switzerland, even lower taxes than the UK and higher gdp per capita than all those 8
    The argument is that low taxes do not deliver better growth.

    Eight neighbouring countries support the argument versus one not-quite neighbouring country against.

    Seems to me that the argument is pretty conclusively proven.
    No it isn't, Switzerland has faster growth than its neighbours and us, as does uber low tax Singapore and the UAE and the US also has faster growth than higher tax the UK and most of Europe now
    But the money in the US is all going to, like, 15 people.
    No it isn't
    https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/american-wages-are-higher-than-british-by-more-than-you-think.

    Though median house prices in the UK are higher than the US on some measures, especially in London and the home counties
    That URL tackles the fact that Americans have to pay for healthcare. To do this, it says, “for the significant majority of [US] full time employees, health care insurance is something they gain from their employer.” Thus, it argues, they don’t have any costs. But it fails to mention these people still typically have out of pocket healthcare expenses as well, so that’s misleading.

    Moreover, https://www.william-russell.com/blog/health-insurance-usa-cost/ notes that only 12% of Americans have 100% of their health insurance covered by their employer. The average US employee pays 22% of their insurance costs… plus there are the out of pocket expenses I mentioned.

    So, really, this doesn’t give me the impression that the Adam Smith Institute is being particularly honest.
    As an example, my American friend had to pay around $600 last year for vaccinations to travel to Brazil, as they weren't covered by insurance. Mine cost £75 because only one wasn't free under the NHS
    Bit of a tangent to your point, but this (unusually) is an example of where even the US system is better than ours.

    Assuming the $600 is a roughly accurate actual cost of the jabs (although knowing the US, half of it is probably the insurance premium for the doctor administering the jabs), and also assuming these aren't jabs you should have in the UK anyway, why on earth is the UK tax payers forking out for them? They should surely be one of the costs of going to Brazil, just like the plane ticket, or the hotels.

    One of the reasons the UK government is broke is that we're forever subsidising all sorts of random stuff that people should be paying for directly.

    The open market hourly charge out rate of a nurse is probably £250 ish per hour. At that rate with the cost of the jab itself plus profit I would suggest that £300 would be reasonable.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,733
    edited May 7

    isam said:
    I think I’ll miss the early declarations. A shame as the build-up, rumours and first results are often the most exciting moments but with the results so spread out this year I can’t really justify staying up late when a lot of the action is tomorrow.

    I might catch an early night and get up early.
    I really will miss an overnight count in Scotland tonight, and its really annoying it won't be yet again. I think that my favourite GE count will always be 1992 as events unfolded and blew the polling predictions out of the water and then discovering that the only seat the Conservatives gained that night was our constituency seat of Aberdeen South.

    It was the first election Fitaloon and I walked down to the polling booth together after work and voted in after we got married and we did as it turn out both vote Conservative, ironically we never did get around to having the couples 'political conversation' about who we supported or planned to vote for up until during that GE campaign! So tough luck if one of us wanted to claim they had never kissed a Tory!


  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 18,452
    fitalass said:

    isam said:
    I think I’ll miss the early declarations. A shame as the build-up, rumours and first results are often the most exciting moments but with the results so spread out this year I can’t really justify staying up late when a lot of the action is tomorrow.

    I might catch an early night and get up early.
    I really will miss an overnight count in Scotland tonight, and its really annoying it won't be yet again. I think that my favourite GE count will always be 1992 as events unfolded and blew the polling predictions out of the water and then discovering that the only seat the Conservatives gained that night was our constituency seat of Aberdeen South.

    It was the first election Fitaloon and I walked down to the polling booth together after work and voted in after we got married and we did as it turn out both vote Conservative, ironically we never did get around to having the couples 'political conversation' about who we supported or planned to vote for up until during that GE campaign! So tough luck if one of us wanted to claim they had never kissed a Tory!


    1997 probably my favourite. I was up for Portillo. A new day has dawned, has it not... innocent times. The first election my now wife (Only Living Girl?) and I experienced together. We watched the results on a portable telly in a friend's room at college. Yesterday she and I were delivering eve of poll leaflets in the neighbourhood hoping to fend off the Green menace.
  • RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 622
    edited May 8
    ..
This discussion has been closed.