Say hello to a future, if not the next, Tory leader? – politicalbetting.com
Say hello to a future, if not the next, Tory leader? – politicalbetting.com
Late last month I had discussions with some people who used to work in the Westminster village and when discussing both the immediate future and the long term future they proposed a suggestion that startled me.
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On topic, and so it begins.
Tory leader Kemi Badenoch refuses to rule out local Reform deals
https://news.sky.com/video/tory-leader-kemi-badenoch-refuses-to-rule-out-local-reform-deals-13540569
Her pro Tommy Robinson stance and now she’s happy to go into coalition with a party that has a candidate that is pro rape and other candidates who say she isn’t British and needs to be deported tells me she’s not a serious politician.
Jenrick will not lead the conservative psrty
Though you did succeed in winding up Big_G.
Mind you if the forecasts are right and they end up around 800 in total it’s an absolute drubbing elsewhere.
I have a slight suspicion they will do a little better than expected and the dire forecasts are expectation management
I think it is entirely possibly, nay even probable, that one will be subsumed into the other after the next GE, but we are not there yet.
I won't be meeting with the local Tory group until late June so by that time the dust will have settled. But I suspect their views on Kemi won't have changed.
Talking of which, Romford is in the news again,
Billboards on the site of the Conservatives' Romford headquarters featuring local MP Andrew Rosindell who defected from the Conservatives to Reform, have prompted a formal complaint to the Electoral Commission.
The local Conservatives say they had asked him to take the adverts down after he defected to Reform in January and they lodged the complaint with the elections body on Tuesday.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clypn7w43w1o
Comments disabled. If there’s a hill I’ll die on it’s the one that has my team speaking truth to power. My journalist has shown you an arse that needs wiping and you’ve chosen to walk about town with it smearing your pants.
Gerroff, lad.
https://x.com/JayMitchinson/status/2051771974997758375
https://x.com/The_A_Disruptor/status/2051787727650050293
The issue with the bet is what qualifies as “Tory leader”. Knowing BF they could easily decide that some merged entity doesn’t equate to the Tory party, and in any case some sort of coupon election along the lines we experienced between the wars is more likely than outright merger under a single leader.
Though it still doesn't explain why Farage's lady-friend paid for the Clacton house. Farage's must have had loads of spare cash at the time.
1. Who wins becomes the side that is better at making pacts. The right hand a slight electoral edge over the left at the last Italian election in terms of votes, but their real advantage was that any possible left alliance fell apart around how parties had behaved to bring about the election, whilst the parties of the right have been coordinating for 30 years. Polling suggests an almost identical result next time out in terms of votes, but with indications that the left alliance is far more united (the dreamed of 'campo largo' or 'big tent' as we'd say, is operating) that could lead to a very close fought outcome.
2. An electoral pact and a pact for government are two totally different things - there can be a you stand here, we'll hold back here type pact, but it doesn't follow that the parties will act as one in the chamber, either on day one or, if they do go into power, once disagreements emerge. Don't necessarily expect the Con/LD 2010 coalition again.
Actually I had planned to run this thread yesterday so I could use this picture below but the moves on the betting markets stopped that.
As such, it is similar to previous realignments such as the collapse of the Liberals/rise of Labour in the 1910s and 1920s, or the Liberal Unionists joining the Conservatives in the 1880s. It could have happened in the 1970s too but did not, despite the rise of Celtic nationalists and the Alliance. As such, much is in flux.
For me, I think the likely outcomes, in descending order of probability, are:
- both on the left and the right, the parties think that they have more in common with each other than divides them, and that disunity only benefits their opponents. Result: RefCon vs GreLab with LDs who knows? Basically back to politics as we were in the 2000s and before maybe with different names.
- on only one of the left and the right, the coalescing process happens. Result: under the iron laws of FPTP this hands dominance to the other side for the foreseeable future
- a move towards a more proportional voting system. Result: the current political fragmentation is perpetuated and the country moves towards a more European form of government: perpetual coalitions and shuffling of jobs between parties. This seems to me unlikely, because of its inherent disadvantages; there's no popular interest in changing the voting system; and no real understanding of the issues involved.
- the current mess continues within the current voting system, with four or five major parties duking it out. Result: wildly unpredictable general elections, huge swings in seats from tiny changes in vote shares, This seems to me the least likely, because as a country we tend to expect firm and stable government, and punish instability. Hung Parliaments and coalitions do not usually allow this (2010-5 was an exception).
So the first option seems to me the likeliest at this stage, though we shouldn't underestimate the difficulties in herding cats together. The Greens basically run against Labour and Reform against the Conservatives. So we'll see how difficult a process it is.
Pornhub's owners said Apple users who had confirmed their age with the company's most up-to-date version of iOS, its mobile operating system, would be allowed back onto the site.
This is because the latest version of iOS introduces age checks for UK iPhone users, as well as for iPads running on up-to-date iterations of its own operating system, iPadOS.
Aylo has long argued that so-called device-level checks, of the sort Apple has brought in, are the best way to stop young people accessing explicit content.
"With the release of iOS 26.4 Apple has introduced the world's first ever device-based age verification solution for its users in the UK, a major first step towards a global solution that stands to better protect children everywhere," said Alex Kekesi, head of community and brand at Aylo.
"As a result, today Aylo welcomes eligible age-confirmed UK iOS users back to Pornhub."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwy27q05gj2o
Trump announces that because of "Great Progress" the strait will remain closed. You read that right.
https://bsky.app/profile/markjacob.bsky.social/post/3ml5cq7flck23
@lordrickettsp.bsky.social
Complete chaos in Washington on what to do about Hormuz. The Iranians will surely conclude that they have deterred the latest US effort to get ships moving and that Trump is desperate for a deal before he goes to China. So they will toughen their negotiating demands. And the price of oil stays high.
Secondly, in a lot of cases where Reform are the largest party, it'd be a question of perhaps not even voting for but abstaining once a year when the leader and cabinet is chosen.
Thirdly, I think people understand the difference between collecting the bins and running the country.
Scaling up a fringe party to be a national party takes a lot more that money.
Angela Rayner unlikely to win unions’ support to replace Keir Starmer
‘All roads lead to Andy Burnham,’ insiders claim as Unite, Unison and GMB appear reluctant to support a leadership challenge from the former deputy
Britain’s three largest unions are unlikely to back Angela Rayner if she challenges Sir Keir Starmer to become leader of the Labour Party, The Times understands.
Senior figures in Unite, Unison and GMB, which together account for the majority of the party’s affiliated membership, have signalled that they may not back the former deputy prime minister if she runs against Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, dealing a significant blow to any formal campaign she may mount.
Rayner has long touted her support for the unions and rose through Unison’s ranks to become its most senior official in the northwest of England before becoming an MP.
Union backing is key in Labour leadership races and any challenger needs to secure nominations from at least two of them to get on the ballot. Affiliated union members then get a vote in the contest.
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/angela-rayner-keir-starmer-news-wlddznvz2
So, Farage claims they’ve looked thoroughly at the £5 million donation and concluded they don’t have to declare it. Did this involve seeking advice from the Registrar? I’m guessing not.
The code also says: “If there is any doubt, the benefit should be registered”. So, why was Farage’s team looking at legal angles on this if there wasn’t doubt, and if there was “any doubt”, they should have registered it.
The code does not provide wriggle room!
However, I accept this is a betting site and however improbable some may want to bet accordingly
Jenrick will not lead a party I can vote for but it is academic anyway as there isn't a vacancy
Farage’s partner refuses to confirm how she paid for house in his constituency
French publication Le Monde says Laure Ferrari ‘dodged’ question when quizzed over property purchase in Clacton
I give it five years.
But Andy only gets the gig if he can persuade everyone that he's already won and the election is a technicality. Otherwise, the obstacles in his way mean that his leadership ambitions are dead, not alive.
Research into emotional lateralization suggests that the left side of the face is more expressive of emotion due to control by the brain's right hemisphere. Conversely, the right side of the face is better at displaying consciously controlled or "social" emotions, which are heavily influenced by the left hemisphere
2 Therefore left wingers need to fear the 'ditch Starmer get Streeting' scenario.
3 Therefore this.
Somebody hates elegant variation
Farage and Polanski will be found out, and this week may well be as good as it get's for them
Much depends on how vindictive No 10 might be ! Do you make it easy for the backstabbing Judas to inherit the crown?
I’ve no doubt Starmer can’t stand Burnham and there are still a good chunk of Labour MPs who would like to see his leadership ambitions implode .
In these days, several fake photos of me are circulating, generated with artificial intelligence and passed off as real by some zealous opponent.
I must admit that whoever created them, at least in the attached case, has also improved me quite a bit. But the fact remains that, just to attack and invent falsehoods, nowadays anything at all is used.
The point, however, goes beyond me. Deepfakes are a dangerous tool, because they can deceive, manipulate, and strike anyone. I can defend myself. Many others cannot.
For this reason, one rule should always apply: verify before believing, and believe before sharing. Because today it happens to me, tomorrow it can happen to anyone.
https://x.com/GiorgiaMeloni/status/2051672420440764626
Reform more racist than the Greens: 2
The Greens more racist than Reform: 2
That's a MOE of 48% LOL.
Mindful of being seen to interject in the elections the HMRC will have decided to wait till after the vote.
Surely this is a bigger scandal than Mandelson, Farage’s £5 million, Partygate or almost anything else (but all still sub judice).
The paragraph beginning with ‘Whilst’ is almost unreadable by the way
So Ukraine has no intention of respecting Russia’s call to stop fighting so they can have a parade on 9th.
https://x.com/andrii_sybiha/status/2051906086467166242
Nick Robinson: "You can't just say the words 'we're an anti-racist party' when I've just read you out five of the most revolting comments"
Lol
What makes a scandal is the wider and ongoing political implications - the questions about the future of Starmer over Mandelson, Johnson over Partygate and possibly Farage over his financial dealings. The Donaldson thing is a potentially grim tale but, unless it does implicate senior figures still on the front line, the impact has already happened.
Churchill of course was for a time a Liberal but only over a genuine difference of opinion on tariff reform and free trade with the Tories he did not leave the party out of pure opportunism like Jenrick
Churchill wasn't at all bad as a writer, but there were clearly other reasons at play for the award.
Iran’s Ambassador to Pakistan mocks Trump’s latest retreat.
https://bsky.app/profile/chadbourn.bsky.social/post/3ml67ygv4y22l
@chadbourn.bsky.social
China has called for a “complete cessation of hostilities” in Iran with “the utmost urgency”.
Xi has Trump wriggling on a hook now. Trump is off to Beijing in a few days and his ego won’t allow his big trip blowing up in his face…or getting cancelled. Explains some of his flipflopping.