Oi! I frequently quote them. This is because - as I said at the time - they produce good graphics quickly, like the below. And the minute LukeTryl or YouGov produce choropleths I will do the same. As for their personal account, knock yourself out. The bio is a bit - how can I put this - expansive.
I don't see how the LDs get to 12.
I can see how they go from 4 constituency seats to 6. And I can see how they pick up a couple of list seats. But 6 list seats? That's a real stretch.
Especially with Reform coming from no list seats to at least a dozen. All of the mainstream parties, including the Lib Dems, are likely to be adversely affected by that.
Well, the LDs benefit from coming from -what- a single list seat. So, there's not a lot of opportunity to drop.
They're also polling a bit better than 2021: then they polled 6.9%, now they look likely to get to double digits.
But to get six list seats means they'd need to win in all but two of the regions, and they're likely to be nowhere in Glasgow, Central Scotland and West Scotland.
So I think a couple of list seats is certainly possible - Highland & Islands, Mid Scotland & Fife, and Lothian are all decent shouts. And on a really good day, they might win in North East Scotland. But more realistically, it'll be five constituencies, and then two list seats.
I'd agree with that and, as I pointed out earlier today, the perversity of the Scottish system is that if they pick up another constituency in the Highlands, for example, they can forget getting a list seat there.
No question of a LibDem list seat in that region - they've never had one - because Orkney and Shetland have always elected constituency LD MSPs. They will add at least one more to their tally on Thursday, possibly more.
Astonishing the jury didn't find the charge of GBH with intent for Corner.
If swinging a sledgehammer into someone's back isn't an intention to cause serious harm I really don't know what is, it is not the same as thumping someone in a pub brawl
Max sentence is 5 years, and they've already done 2 on remand. So they'll be out in six months anyway?
And for how many years after that will that poor female police officer have to deal with the consequences of her spinal injury?
I'd like to know when and who dropped the with intent bit, did it go to the jury ?
Based on the word cleared, I am going to say it was the jury.
This is what happens when the government fails to order any new frigates for decades. Large sums have to be spent trying to keep the old hulls going, then something fundamental breaks and you end up with an expensive pile of scrap metal.
Same thing is going to happen with the Type 45s. The eldest of those was launched 20 years ago and no substantive work has been done on a replacement. Now, granted the class as a whole hasn't been worked to death the way the Type 23s have (partially due to them spending so long under refit to get new generators) but I'd be surprised if those hulls have another decade left before they turn into floating money pits.
Oi! I frequently quote them. This is because - as I said at the time - they produce good graphics quickly, like the below. And the minute LukeTryl or YouGov produce choropleths I will do the same. As for their personal account, knock yourself out. The bio is a bit - how can I put this - expansive.
I don't see how the LDs get to 12.
I can see how they go from 4 constituency seats to 6. And I can see how they pick up a couple of list seats. But 6 list seats? That's a real stretch.
Especially with Reform coming from no list seats to at least a dozen. All of the mainstream parties, including the Lib Dems, are likely to be adversely affected by that.
Well, the LDs benefit from coming from -what- a single list seat. So, there's not a lot of opportunity to drop.
They're also polling a bit better than 2021: then they polled 6.9%, now they look likely to get to double digits.
But to get six list seats means they'd need to win in all but two of the regions, and they're likely to be nowhere in Glasgow, Central Scotland and West Scotland.
So I think a couple of list seats is certainly possible - Highland & Islands, Mid Scotland & Fife, and Lothian are all decent shouts. And on a really good day, they might win in North East Scotland. But more realistically, it'll be five constituencies, and then two list seats.
With Clydebank & Milngavie and Strathkelvin & Bearsden now being in West Scotland there may be enough Lib Dem votes to squeak a regional seat on a good day.
Oi! I frequently quote them. This is because - as I said at the time - they produce good graphics quickly, like the below. And the minute LukeTryl or YouGov produce choropleths I will do the same. As for their personal account, knock yourself out. The bio is a bit - how can I put this - expansive.
I don't see how the LDs get to 12.
I can see how they go from 4 constituency seats to 6. And I can see how they pick up a couple of list seats. But 6 list seats? That's a real stretch.
Especially with Reform coming from no list seats to at least a dozen. All of the mainstream parties, including the Lib Dems, are likely to be adversely affected by that.
Well, the LDs benefit from coming from -what- a single list seat. So, there's not a lot of opportunity to drop.
They're also polling a bit better than 2021: then they polled 6.9%, now they look likely to get to double digits.
But to get six list seats means they'd need to win in all but two of the regions, and they're likely to be nowhere in Glasgow, Central Scotland and West Scotland.
So I think a couple of list seats is certainly possible - Highland & Islands, Mid Scotland & Fife, and Lothian are all decent shouts. And on a really good day, they might win in North East Scotland. But more realistically, it'll be five constituencies, and then two list seats.
With Clydebank & Milngavie and Strathkelvin & Bearsden now being in West Scotland there may be enough Lib Dem votes to squeak a regional seat on a good day.
Yep:
Bear in mind -though- that if they pick-up the Caithness seat then that essentially precludes them from getting a Highlands and Islands list seat. So while seven (or even eight) looks within reach, to get to twelve requires some serious good fortune.
Mr Tice. The Yorkshire Post is far more trusted than you are. Not least because it has told the truth since 1754. Please don’t pull the Trump card on us. It’s pathetic. It’s pointless. It’s weak. My team is giving you a fair audience with DSA. You should do better with this one. https://x.com/JayMitchinson/status/2051728654623772756
It's commendably optimistic to ask Tice to do better.
This is what happens when the government fails to order any new frigates for decades. Large sums have to be spent trying to keep the old hulls going, then something fundamental breaks and you end up with an expensive pile of scrap metal.
Same thing is going to happen with the Type 45s. The eldest of those was launched 20 years ago and no substantive work has been done on a replacement. Now, granted the class as a whole hasn't been worked to death the way the Type 23s have (partially due to them spending so long under refit to get new generators) but I'd be surprised if those hulls have another decade left before they turn into floating money pits.
And there were originally planned to be 12 Type 45s, but that ended up as only 6. There's not much spare capacity if one of the hulls degrades early.
Plaid Cymru has jumped ahead to be the predicted largest party in the Senedd Election according to the latest ITV Cymru Wales opinion poll.
The findings, released two days before polls open, show Rhun ap Iorwerth’s party with 33% of the vote share, four percentage points ahead of Reform UK at 29%.
According to MRP modelling by YouGov for ITV Cymru Wales in partnership with Cardiff University, under the new d’Hondt voting system, this round of results means Plaid Cymru would win 43 seats and Reform would take 34.
Norway to reopen three gasfields closed down last century
West Ekofisk closed down about 40 years ago!
There's an interesting point here. You run a gas field. Over time the pressure drops so that the amount of gas coming the surface is not enough to justify your operating costs, so you shut it in.
Here's the thing: gas fields aren't completely porous. The area around the wellbore will have the lowest pressure, while there will be areas a long way away which have much higher pressure, but the gas can only migrate at a relatively modest rate.
If you leave a field for -say- four decades then the pressure will equalize across the field. Now, if you uncap the well, the pressure will be much higher, and you might get a couple of years of good flow from it before the pressure drops sufficiently to make it uneconomic.
Oi! I frequently quote them. This is because - as I said at the time - they produce good graphics quickly, like the below. And the minute LukeTryl or YouGov produce choropleths I will do the same. As for their personal account, knock yourself out. The bio is a bit - how can I put this - expansive.
I don't see how the LDs get to 12.
I can see how they go from 4 constituency seats to 6. And I can see how they pick up a couple of list seats. But 6 list seats? That's a real stretch.
Especially with Reform coming from no list seats to at least a dozen. All of the mainstream parties, including the Lib Dems, are likely to be adversely affected by that.
Well, the LDs benefit from coming from -what- a single list seat. So, there's not a lot of opportunity to drop.
They're also polling a bit better than 2021: then they polled 6.9%, now they look likely to get to double digits.
But to get six list seats means they'd need to win in all but two of the regions, and they're likely to be nowhere in Glasgow, Central Scotland and West Scotland.
So I think a couple of list seats is certainly possible - Highland & Islands, Mid Scotland & Fife, and Lothian are all decent shouts. And on a really good day, they might win in North East Scotland. But more realistically, it'll be five constituencies, and then two list seats.
With Clydebank & Milngavie and Strathkelvin & Bearsden now being in West Scotland there may be enough Lib Dem votes to squeak a regional seat on a good day.
Ross Finnie be the last Lib Dem to represent West? Their chances of a list seat in the South are being talked up a bit. Maybe they gain one in Edinburgh and Lothians too if they poll well in Edinburgh North.
They are a shoo in for Caithness so I would say between 7 and 10 seats looks decent outcome for them
Oi! I frequently quote them. This is because - as I said at the time - they produce good graphics quickly, like the below. And the minute LukeTryl or YouGov produce choropleths I will do the same. As for their personal account, knock yourself out. The bio is a bit - how can I put this - expansive.
I don't see how the LDs get to 12.
I can see how they go from 4 constituency seats to 6. And I can see how they pick up a couple of list seats. But 6 list seats? That's a real stretch.
Especially with Reform coming from no list seats to at least a dozen. All of the mainstream parties, including the Lib Dems, are likely to be adversely affected by that.
Well, the LDs benefit from coming from -what- a single list seat. So, there's not a lot of opportunity to drop.
They're also polling a bit better than 2021: then they polled 6.9%, now they look likely to get to double digits.
But to get six list seats means they'd need to win in all but two of the regions, and they're likely to be nowhere in Glasgow, Central Scotland and West Scotland.
So I think a couple of list seats is certainly possible - Highland & Islands, Mid Scotland & Fife, and Lothian are all decent shouts. And on a really good day, they might win in North East Scotland. But more realistically, it'll be five constituencies, and then two list seats.
With Clydebank & Milngavie and Strathkelvin & Bearsden now being in West Scotland there may be enough Lib Dem votes to squeak a regional seat on a good day.
Ross Finnie be the last Lib Dem to represent West? Their chances of a list seat in the South are being talked up a bit. Maybe they gain one in Edinburgh and Lothians too if they poll well in Edinburgh North.
They are a shoo in for Caithness so I would say between 7 and 10 seats looks decent outcome for them
You think they're a shoo in Caithness? I thought Edinburgh Northern was their best shot at a constituency gain. If they take both, then they're in a good shot to end up 8-9 area (maybe 10 on a good day.)
The president-elect of the Oxford Union has been removed from the position for committing electoral fraud.
Catherine Xu, a postgraduate student at Exeter College, was removed after the union’s election tribunal found her to have distributed union membership cards to non-members to vote on polling day.
Like I said earlier. Polanski is a walking catastrophe, so is his deputy, and anti-Zio Zack will be gone within months
Maybe less
Back in the real world, the Greens are running second only behind Reform in national opinion polls, and the party is about to have its best ever local election results.
I don't like Zack. I don't like the Greens.
But when reality intrudes, one is forced to accept it.
quite amusing watching the righties getting all upset their attacks on Polanski going nowhere. annoying isn't it?
Polanski has been leader for 8 months, or 5 Trusses or 22 Scaramuccis. There is plenty of time for Polanski to hit difficulties. Personal probity issues, his belief in MMT and fiscal unrealism, his cabal like leftist style and his dislike of being interviewed by Trevor Phillips all suggest stuff to come, which won't include general election winning.
I keep reading that Polanski has "charisma". Can you, or anyone, point me to a single example? Because, darn my pants, I cannot see any
And I am entirely open to charisma in politicians I despise. Corbyn had a weird old-man-in-a-vest Magic Grandpa charisma. It was wholly malign, but he had it. Boris, Salmond, Blair, to name but three very different British politicians of the last 40 years, also had charisma. Farage has a low watt old style "Tory cad" charisma
Starmer, Davey, Swinney do NOT have charisma. The jury is out on Badenoch, she may be developing late onset charisma
Polanski?? He looks like a Romanian Nazi hamster. He cannot orate, he is clearly thick as organic pig shit. Where is this charisma?
He's not your type, hun.
(JCorbz was your generation, KemiB is trying to appeal to your generation, Zak clearly couldn't give a flying one about your generation.)
MOREOVER - *clears throat* - this argument doesn't work because I can see the very obvious charisma of Mamdani in NYC, who is a decade younger than Polanski. Mamdani is handsome, articulate, quick and smart. I utterly despise his politics and I think he is potentially a disaster for New York City, but, yes, he has a star quality
Polanski? He is none of those things. He is a twat
You're simply revealing your inability to empathise with younger folk. It's more the agenda and the bold confidence of its advocacy than the personaility of the man.
Polanski may ‘inspire’ da yoof but what about the other side of the Green coalition. The middle class in the shires, the North Herefordshire/Waveney side of the Greens.
How does he keep them satisfied and on board ?
It won't be an issue until there many more Green MPs, from both wings, elected. Then he will have a discipline problem, because the Greens are notoriously intolerant of minority views within the party.
Oi! I frequently quote them. This is because - as I said at the time - they produce good graphics quickly, like the below. And the minute LukeTryl or YouGov produce choropleths I will do the same. As for their personal account, knock yourself out. The bio is a bit - how can I put this - expansive.
I don't see how the LDs get to 12.
I can see how they go from 4 constituency seats to 6. And I can see how they pick up a couple of list seats. But 6 list seats? That's a real stretch.
Especially with Reform coming from no list seats to at least a dozen. All of the mainstream parties, including the Lib Dems, are likely to be adversely affected by that.
Well, the LDs benefit from coming from -what- a single list seat. So, there's not a lot of opportunity to drop.
They're also polling a bit better than 2021: then they polled 6.9%, now they look likely to get to double digits.
But to get six list seats means they'd need to win in all but two of the regions, and they're likely to be nowhere in Glasgow, Central Scotland and West Scotland.
So I think a couple of list seats is certainly possible - Highland & Islands, Mid Scotland & Fife, and Lothian are all decent shouts. And on a really good day, they might win in North East Scotland. But more realistically, it'll be five constituencies, and then two list seats.
With Clydebank & Milngavie and Strathkelvin & Bearsden now being in West Scotland there may be enough Lib Dem votes to squeak a regional seat on a good day.
Ross Finnie be the last Lib Dem to represent West? Their chances of a list seat in the South are being talked up a bit. Maybe they gain one in Edinburgh and Lothians too if they poll well in Edinburgh North.
They are a shoo in for Caithness so I would say between 7 and 10 seats looks decent outcome for them
You think they're a shoo in Caithness? I thought Edinburgh Northern was their best shot at a constituency gain. If they take both, then they're in a good shot to end up 8-9 area (maybe 10 on a good day.)
Yep, there was only 2.5k between the top two last time, Maree Todd's jacket is on a very shoogly peg. The problem with Ed Northern its effectively parts of 3 seats merged so there is a "new" feel to it. Could all be wrong ... some of the MRPs give it to Lib Dem, some of them SNP, but I think many of the polling gurus are more confident saying Caithness & Sutherland will go Lib Dem.
Cole-Hamilton keeps a good chunk of the posh areas like Corstorphine in his seat, Northern also encroaches east towards Newhaven which is edging towards student/Green territory. Definite possibility, but would need a the Labour and Tory vote to collapse into LD. They are helped a bit as there is a Green candidate.
They'll definitely get some list seats but not one in every region, and definitely not Highlands. Incidentally Highlands has less voters than every other region, so you could say they get more representation, approx 360,000 voters, every other region has more than 500,000
It's badged as follows and as such appears to offer a bit more of an unbiased overview than the nightly pieces pushed by Burnham's camp: "The i Paper spoke to more than a dozen insiders from across all wings of the party about the possibility of a leadership challenge and found MPs are unable to agree amid claim and counterclaim on their best course of action."
Basically, Labour MPs appear to be all over the shop. Stuff seems to be going on but all those alleged to be behind anything are denying that it is (they would, wouldn't they?)
This extract might be telling though: "One Labour MP, a supporter of Starmer, said they had experienced “overt canvassing” from both Streeting and Rayner’s camps which suggested that “we seem to be heading to a contest now which means Burnham can’t stand”. Another MP said both sides have “become overtly friendly” with Rayner’s allies in particular “warming folks up”, adding there was “definitely an operation”. However, allies of both the immediate potential contenders denied the claims, with both believed to be reluctant to move first."
Remember that the role of Labour MPs is to enable a contest not to veto one. Even if just one candidate is prepared to stand and 20% support him/her, a contest with Starmer is on. It doesn't matter what the other 80% think because they then can't stop it going to the members to decide.
Oi! I frequently quote them. This is because - as I said at the time - they produce good graphics quickly, like the below. And the minute LukeTryl or YouGov produce choropleths I will do the same. As for their personal account, knock yourself out. The bio is a bit - how can I put this - expansive.
I don't see how the LDs get to 12.
I can see how they go from 4 constituency seats to 6. And I can see how they pick up a couple of list seats. But 6 list seats? That's a real stretch.
Especially with Reform coming from no list seats to at least a dozen. All of the mainstream parties, including the Lib Dems, are likely to be adversely affected by that.
Well, the LDs benefit from coming from -what- a single list seat. So, there's not a lot of opportunity to drop.
They're also polling a bit better than 2021: then they polled 6.9%, now they look likely to get to double digits.
But to get six list seats means they'd need to win in all but two of the regions, and they're likely to be nowhere in Glasgow, Central Scotland and West Scotland.
So I think a couple of list seats is certainly possible - Highland & Islands, Mid Scotland & Fife, and Lothian are all decent shouts. And on a really good day, they might win in North East Scotland. But more realistically, it'll be five constituencies, and then two list seats.
With Clydebank & Milngavie and Strathkelvin & Bearsden now being in West Scotland there may be enough Lib Dem votes to squeak a regional seat on a good day.
Ross Finnie be the last Lib Dem to represent West? Their chances of a list seat in the South are being talked up a bit. Maybe they gain one in Edinburgh and Lothians too if they poll well in Edinburgh North.
They are a shoo in for Caithness so I would say between 7 and 10 seats looks decent outcome for them
You think they're a shoo in Caithness? I thought Edinburgh Northern was their best shot at a constituency gain. If they take both, then they're in a good shot to end up 8-9 area (maybe 10 on a good day.)
They will win Caithness by a country mile. The real question is whether they can pick up Kate Forbes old seat (Skye etc) and/or Inverness which could go several ways due to Fergus Ewing standing as an Independent. I think Argyll out of reach though they have the perennial candidate Alan Reid standing - MP until 2015.
Oi! I frequently quote them. This is because - as I said at the time - they produce good graphics quickly, like the below. And the minute LukeTryl or YouGov produce choropleths I will do the same. As for their personal account, knock yourself out. The bio is a bit - how can I put this - expansive.
I don't see how the LDs get to 12.
I can see how they go from 4 constituency seats to 6. And I can see how they pick up a couple of list seats. But 6 list seats? That's a real stretch.
Especially with Reform coming from no list seats to at least a dozen. All of the mainstream parties, including the Lib Dems, are likely to be adversely affected by that.
Well, the LDs benefit from coming from -what- a single list seat. So, there's not a lot of opportunity to drop.
They're also polling a bit better than 2021: then they polled 6.9%, now they look likely to get to double digits.
But to get six list seats means they'd need to win in all but two of the regions, and they're likely to be nowhere in Glasgow, Central Scotland and West Scotland.
So I think a couple of list seats is certainly possible - Highland & Islands, Mid Scotland & Fife, and Lothian are all decent shouts. And on a really good day, they might win in North East Scotland. But more realistically, it'll be five constituencies, and then two list seats.
With Clydebank & Milngavie and Strathkelvin & Bearsden now being in West Scotland there may be enough Lib Dem votes to squeak a regional seat on a good day.
Ross Finnie be the last Lib Dem to represent West? Their chances of a list seat in the South are being talked up a bit. Maybe they gain one in Edinburgh and Lothians too if they poll well in Edinburgh North.
They are a shoo in for Caithness so I would say between 7 and 10 seats looks decent outcome for them
You think they're a shoo in Caithness? I thought Edinburgh Northern was their best shot at a constituency gain. If they take both, then they're in a good shot to end up 8-9 area (maybe 10 on a good day.)
They will win Caithness by a country mile. The real question is whether they can pick up Kate Forbes old seat (Skye etc) and/or Inverness which could go several ways due to Fergus Ewing standing as an Independent. I think Argyll out of reach though they have the perennial candidate Alan Reid standing - MP until 2015.
Well, maybe I'm wildly pessimistic on the LDs.
Caution with regard to LD seat numbers -except in 2024- has usually been a winning betting strategy.
Oi! I frequently quote them. This is because - as I said at the time - they produce good graphics quickly, like the below. And the minute LukeTryl or YouGov produce choropleths I will do the same. As for their personal account, knock yourself out. The bio is a bit - how can I put this - expansive.
I don't see how the LDs get to 12.
I can see how they go from 4 constituency seats to 6. And I can see how they pick up a couple of list seats. But 6 list seats? That's a real stretch.
Especially with Reform coming from no list seats to at least a dozen. All of the mainstream parties, including the Lib Dems, are likely to be adversely affected by that.
Well, the LDs benefit from coming from -what- a single list seat. So, there's not a lot of opportunity to drop.
They're also polling a bit better than 2021: then they polled 6.9%, now they look likely to get to double digits.
But to get six list seats means they'd need to win in all but two of the regions, and they're likely to be nowhere in Glasgow, Central Scotland and West Scotland.
So I think a couple of list seats is certainly possible - Highland & Islands, Mid Scotland & Fife, and Lothian are all decent shouts. And on a really good day, they might win in North East Scotland. But more realistically, it'll be five constituencies, and then two list seats.
With Clydebank & Milngavie and Strathkelvin & Bearsden now being in West Scotland there may be enough Lib Dem votes to squeak a regional seat on a good day.
Ross Finnie be the last Lib Dem to represent West? Their chances of a list seat in the South are being talked up a bit. Maybe they gain one in Edinburgh and Lothians too if they poll well in Edinburgh North.
They are a shoo in for Caithness so I would say between 7 and 10 seats looks decent outcome for them
You think they're a shoo in Caithness? I thought Edinburgh Northern was their best shot at a constituency gain. If they take both, then they're in a good shot to end up 8-9 area (maybe 10 on a good day.)
They will win Caithness by a country mile. The real question is whether they can pick up Kate Forbes old seat (Skye etc) and/or Inverness which could go several ways due to Fergus Ewing standing as an Independent. I think Argyll out of reach though they have the perennial candidate Alan Reid standing - MP until 2015.
Yes, I think there was surprise when they didn't gain Caithness back in 2021.
Wasn't expecting Alan Reid to be selected/stand again. Argyll is definitely on the LD radar but it looks too far out to take this time. I think Kate Forbes old seat could be really close, and Inverness effectively a 3 way marginal.
It begins to look as though Polanski is an even greater fantasist and fibber than Boris Johnson. Far from being some sort of aberration, the breast enlargement hypnosis may turn out to be typical of the man.
Zack Polanski falsely claimed to be a spokesperson for the British Red Cross while campaigning for the Green party leadership, the charity has said.
It begins to look as though Polanski is an even greater fantasist and fibber than Boris Johnson. Far from being some sort of aberration, the breast enlargement hypnosis may turn out to be typical of the man.
Zack Polanski falsely claimed to be a spokesperson for the British Red Cross while campaigning for the Green party leadership, the charity has said.
A joint investigation by the Mirror and the anti-racism campaign group Hope Not Hate alleged Stuart Prior, who is standing for Reform in Rayleigh West (for Essex county council) as well as Sweyne Park and Grange (for Rochford district council), had made a string of racist comments on social media in the past few months. This included declaring white people the “master race” and calling Muslim people “rats”.
Zarah Sultana, the former Labour MP and co-founder of Your Party, in a post on X in October, highlighted the rapes of two Sikh and Punjabi women in Walsall and Oldbury and said: “These horrifying attacks show how racism and misogyny feed each other – fuelled by the rise of fascism and hate.” In response, Prior, 54, is alleged to have said: “Good. Reap it.”
Norway to reopen three gasfields closed down last century
West Ekofisk closed down about 40 years ago!
There's an interesting point here. You run a gas field. Over time the pressure drops so that the amount of gas coming the surface is not enough to justify your operating costs, so you shut it in.
Here's the thing: gas fields aren't completely porous. The area around the wellbore will have the lowest pressure, while there will be areas a long way away which have much higher pressure, but the gas can only migrate at a relatively modest rate.
If you leave a field for -say- four decades then the pressure will equalize across the field. Now, if you uncap the well, the pressure will be much higher, and you might get a couple of years of good flow from it before the pressure drops sufficiently to make it uneconomic.
It is not just equilisation of pressure. These fields have both large scale aquifer support and in some cases active source rocks so you can also get recharge to virgin pressure. This is what we have to take into account during abandonment. All wells have to be able to cope with recharge pressures without leaking.
As an aside I was the geosteering geologist on the first field ever reopened in Norway about 20 years ago.
Norway to reopen three gasfields closed down last century
West Ekofisk closed down about 40 years ago!
There's an interesting point here. You run a gas field. Over time the pressure drops so that the amount of gas coming the surface is not enough to justify your operating costs, so you shut it in.
Here's the thing: gas fields aren't completely porous. The area around the wellbore will have the lowest pressure, while there will be areas a long way away which have much higher pressure, but the gas can only migrate at a relatively modest rate.
If you leave a field for -say- four decades then the pressure will equalize across the field. Now, if you uncap the well, the pressure will be much higher, and you might get a couple of years of good flow from it before the pressure drops sufficiently to make it uneconomic.
It is not just equilisation of pressure. These fields have both large scale aquifer support and in some cases active source rocks so you can also get recharge to virgin pressure. This is what we have to take into account during abandonment. All wells have to be able to cope with recharge pressures without leaking.
As an aside I was the geosteering geologist on the first field ever reopened in Norway about 20 years ago.
Ah yes, nature's own water injection :-)
It's amazing to think that 40 years can restore a field to decent pressure, and can allow ultimate recoverables to move up so much.
Norway to reopen three gasfields closed down last century
West Ekofisk closed down about 40 years ago!
There's an interesting point here. You run a gas field. Over time the pressure drops so that the amount of gas coming the surface is not enough to justify your operating costs, so you shut it in.
Here's the thing: gas fields aren't completely porous. The area around the wellbore will have the lowest pressure, while there will be areas a long way away which have much higher pressure, but the gas can only migrate at a relatively modest rate.
If you leave a field for -say- four decades then the pressure will equalize across the field. Now, if you uncap the well, the pressure will be much higher, and you might get a couple of years of good flow from it before the pressure drops sufficiently to make it uneconomic.
It is not just equilisation of pressure. These fields have both large scale aquifer support and in some cases active source rocks so you can also get recharge to virgin pressure. This is what we have to take into account during abandonment. All wells have to be able to cope with recharge pressures without leaking.
As an aside I was the geosteering geologist on the first field ever reopened in Norway about 20 years ago.
Ah yes, nature's own water injection :-)
It's amazing to think that 40 years can restore a field to decent pressure, and can allow ultimate recoverables to move up so much.
Well, Nature does abhor a vacuum, and the principal reason for the pressure in the first place is the gigatons of rock above the field, so is it that amazing?
It would be more surprising to find that a low pressure void would persist indefinitely, I think.
I recall one of the Asmiov robot stories where a human being is sent into a dangerous situation because he is more expendable than a robot - we'll get there!
A joint investigation by the Mirror and the anti-racism campaign group Hope Not Hate alleged Stuart Prior, who is standing for Reform in Rayleigh West (for Essex county council) as well as Sweyne Park and Grange (for Rochford district council), had made a string of racist comments on social media in the past few months. This included declaring white people the “master race” and calling Muslim people “rats”.
Zarah Sultana, the former Labour MP and co-founder of Your Party, in a post on X in October, highlighted the rapes of two Sikh and Punjabi women in Walsall and Oldbury and said: “These horrifying attacks show how racism and misogyny feed each other – fuelled by the rise of fascism and hate.” In response, Prior, 54, is alleged to have said: “Good. Reap it.”
I recall one of the Asmiov robot stories where a human being is sent into a dangerous situation because he is more expendable than a robot - we'll get there!
Prosecutors to ‘fast-track’ hate crime cases in England and Wales after spate of attacks Staff told to prosecute as quickly as they can, rather than waiting to gather all evidence, to tackle ‘climate of fear’ felt by Jewish community https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy82p2x86qzo
Dame Shirley Porter obituary Former leader of Westminster city council found to have misused her powers in the ‘homes for votes’ scandal
There was a time in the late 1980s when Shirley Porter was the second most famous and powerful female politician in Britain: “the Iron Lady of the town halls”. Like her heroine, Margaret Thatcher, she was a grocer’s daughter, though the family business, Tesco, was somewhat bigger than the prime minister’s corner shop. Porter’s eventual fall from grace was devastating both for her personal reputation and for Thatcherism’s perceived way of doing things. She was, simply, the most corrupt politician of her time. https://www.theguardian.com/society/2026/may/05/dame-shirley-porter-obituary
But towards the end of the 1980s, [Dame Shirley Porter] began to be dogged by scandal. First came the sale of three of Westminster’s cemeteries for just 15 pence. Promoted at the time as the cutting edge of privatisation, the sale to a Panamanian company came unstuck when angry relatives found graves neglected and could get no redress. The sale had included lucrative building land that was quickly developed. Complaints to the district auditor led to the council having to buy back the cemeteries for £4 million. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/obituaries/2026/05/04/dame-shirley-porter-westminster-council-homes-for-votes/ (£££)
We've also gained some anti-fly tipping notices outside. They've not worked so far but perhaps the fly tippers never got to see the notices until too late. Let's see how it goes.
The notices do remind householders that they can arrange free removal of bulky items, although about half of what is tipped looks to my untutored eye like normal household rubbish. There was a bloke in the betting shop who had problems with neighbours putting their bins outside his house on collection day. I often wonder if some people do not realise council bin collections are free.
Dame Shirley Porter obituary Former leader of Westminster city council found to have misused her powers in the ‘homes for votes’ scandal
There was a time in the late 1980s when Shirley Porter was the second most famous and powerful female politician in Britain: “the Iron Lady of the town halls”. Like her heroine, Margaret Thatcher, she was a grocer’s daughter, though the family business, Tesco, was somewhat bigger than the prime minister’s corner shop. Porter’s eventual fall from grace was devastating both for her personal reputation and for Thatcherism’s perceived way of doing things. She was, simply, the most corrupt politician of her time. https://www.theguardian.com/society/2026/may/05/dame-shirley-porter-obituary
But towards the end of the 1980s, [Dame Shirley Porter] began to be dogged by scandal. First came the sale of three of Westminster’s cemeteries for just 15 pence. Promoted at the time as the cutting edge of privatisation, the sale to a Panamanian company came unstuck when angry relatives found graves neglected and could get no redress. The sale had included lucrative building land that was quickly developed. Complaints to the district auditor led to the council having to buy back the cemeteries for £4 million. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/obituaries/2026/05/04/dame-shirley-porter-westminster-council-homes-for-votes/ (£££)
It wasn't just homes for votes.
Ah, the 1980s, when you buy a pint of beer and a couple of London cemetries and still get change from a fiver.
Even Reform voters tend not to think it's a great idea.
With Reform UK threatening to open migrant detention centres in Green constituencies, by 45% to 19% Britons say it is unacceptable for governments to base decisions that affect individual constituencies based on how people there voted https://x.com/YouGov/status/2051697130117501393
Norway to reopen three gasfields closed down last century
West Ekofisk closed down about 40 years ago!
There's an interesting point here. You run a gas field. Over time the pressure drops so that the amount of gas coming the surface is not enough to justify your operating costs, so you shut it in.
Here's the thing: gas fields aren't completely porous. The area around the wellbore will have the lowest pressure, while there will be areas a long way away which have much higher pressure, but the gas can only migrate at a relatively modest rate.
If you leave a field for -say- four decades then the pressure will equalize across the field. Now, if you uncap the well, the pressure will be much higher, and you might get a couple of years of good flow from it before the pressure drops sufficiently to make it uneconomic.
Except...the pipelines to get the gas to shore will have long gone. You won't reinstate them for just a couple of years of production. You'd need floating LNG or similar to collect it, then move on.
I've just seen the story that the Bristol explosion was a suicide bomb set off by a man to murder his ex-partner. The degree of premeditation involved in making a bomb to murder your ex is quite staggering. And, of course, there were multiple prior incidents known to the police.
Will Starmer have a summit on violence against woman or perhaps increase police funding to tackle domestic violence and controlling behaviour? Yet another shrug while the media is full of their favourite subject.
Da yuff make a big thing of being your authetic self, hence why Magic Grandpa was so popular.
What Zack is cleverly doing is ensuring he gets his message out via his own podcast etc so he gets to tell people its just racist anti-semtic billionaire owned media trying to stop the revolution.
Dame Shirley Porter obituary Former leader of Westminster city council found to have misused her powers in the ‘homes for votes’ scandal
There was a time in the late 1980s when Shirley Porter was the second most famous and powerful female politician in Britain: “the Iron Lady of the town halls”. Like her heroine, Margaret Thatcher, she was a grocer’s daughter, though the family business, Tesco, was somewhat bigger than the prime minister’s corner shop. Porter’s eventual fall from grace was devastating both for her personal reputation and for Thatcherism’s perceived way of doing things. She was, simply, the most corrupt politician of her time. https://www.theguardian.com/society/2026/may/05/dame-shirley-porter-obituary
But towards the end of the 1980s, [Dame Shirley Porter] began to be dogged by scandal. First came the sale of three of Westminster’s cemeteries for just 15 pence. Promoted at the time as the cutting edge of privatisation, the sale to a Panamanian company came unstuck when angry relatives found graves neglected and could get no redress. The sale had included lucrative building land that was quickly developed. Complaints to the district auditor led to the council having to buy back the cemeteries for £4 million. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/obituaries/2026/05/04/dame-shirley-porter-westminster-council-homes-for-votes/ (£££)
It wasn't just homes for votes.
Ah, the 1980s, when you buy a pint of beer and a couple of London cemetries and still get change from a fiver.
I've just seen the story that the Bristol explosion was a suicide bomb set off by a man to murder his ex-partner. The degree of premeditation involved in making a bomb to murder your ex is quite staggering. And, of course, there were multiple prior incidents known to the police.
Will Starmer have a summit on violence against woman or perhaps increase police funding to tackle domestic violence and controlling behaviour? Yet another shrug while the media is full of their favourite subject.
Didn't you hear he proud advocate for reducing violence against women and girls.....or have we now dropped that slogan along with further and faster etc.
Norway to reopen three gasfields closed down last century
West Ekofisk closed down about 40 years ago!
There's an interesting point here. You run a gas field. Over time the pressure drops so that the amount of gas coming the surface is not enough to justify your operating costs, so you shut it in.
Here's the thing: gas fields aren't completely porous. The area around the wellbore will have the lowest pressure, while there will be areas a long way away which have much higher pressure, but the gas can only migrate at a relatively modest rate.
If you leave a field for -say- four decades then the pressure will equalize across the field. Now, if you uncap the well, the pressure will be much higher, and you might get a couple of years of good flow from it before the pressure drops sufficiently to make it uneconomic.
Except...the pipelines to get the gas to shore will have long gone. You won't reinstate them for just a couple of years of production. You'd need floating LNG or similar to collect it, then move on.
Subsea completion and tie back to Ekofisk. Actually West Ekofisk was already tied back to Ekosisk in the early 90s when they converted it to an unmanned platform.
Although all the infrastructure is gone, in this case the tie back is simple. They don't have to put the template in the same place as the original platform since they are drilling new wells.
Even Reform voters tend not to think it's a great idea.
With Reform UK threatening to open migrant detention centres in Green constituencies, by 45% to 19% Britons say it is unacceptable for governments to base decisions that affect individual constituencies based on how people there voted https://x.com/YouGov/status/2051697130117501393
Alternatively a third of voters answered don't know, and another third said "meh" (somewhat acceptable/unacceptable) which is probably enough for it not to matter even if it should.
“24. Members should not register under this category:
“a) Benefits which could not reasonably be thought by others to be related to membership of the House or to the Member’s parliamentary or political activities; for example, purely personal gifts or benefits from partners or family members. However, both the possible motive of the giver and the use to which the gift is to be put should be considered. If there is any doubt, the benefit should be registered;”
I find it hard to see how £5 million relating to his work as a politician and given by someone who is a political donor to his party passes that test.
Farage said, “And believe you me, we've looked at this from every legal angle, there is no obligation to declare something that is an unconditional, non-political, personal gift.” However, the register of interests is not like paying tax, where you can argue at the edges. The register says you should err on the side of caution (“if there is any doubt, the benefit should be registered”). If you’re getting legal advice about whether something should be declared, then it should be declared!
“24. Members should not register under this category:
“a) Benefits which could not reasonably be thought by others to be related to membership of the House or to the Member’s parliamentary or political activities; for example, purely personal gifts or benefits from partners or family members. However, both the possible motive of the giver and the use to which the gift is to be put should be considered. If there is any doubt, the benefit should be registered;”
I find it hard to see how £5 million relating to his work as a politician and given by someone who is a political donor to his party passes that test.
Farage said, “And believe you me, we've looked at this from every legal angle, there is no obligation to declare something that is an unconditional, non-political, personal gift.” However, the register of interests is not like paying tax, where you can argue at the edges. The register says you should err on the side of caution (“if there is any doubt, the benefit should be registered”). If you’re getting legal advice about whether something should be declared, then it should be declared!
Good morning, everyone.
As an aside, if someone's offering £5m to anyone so they can be financially secure, I am available to receive such donations.
“24. Members should not register under this category:
“a) Benefits which could not reasonably be thought by others to be related to membership of the House or to the Member’s parliamentary or political activities; for example, purely personal gifts or benefits from partners or family members. However, both the possible motive of the giver and the use to which the gift is to be put should be considered. If there is any doubt, the benefit should be registered;”
I find it hard to see how £5 million relating to his work as a politician and given by someone who is a political donor to his party passes that test.
Farage said, “And believe you me, we've looked at this from every legal angle, there is no obligation to declare something that is an unconditional, non-political, personal gift.” However, the register of interests is not like paying tax, where you can argue at the edges. The register says you should err on the side of caution (“if there is any doubt, the benefit should be registered”). If you’re getting legal advice about whether something should be declared, then it should be declared!
Good morning, everyone.
As an aside, if someone's offering £5m to anyone so they can be financially secure, I am available to receive such donations.
Back of the queue sunshine....it finishes right over there, yeah down the street, round the corner, over the hill, yeah keep going...yeah bit further....yeah your nearly there...
The president-elect of the Oxford Union has been removed from the position for committing electoral fraud.
Catherine Xu, a postgraduate student at Exeter College, was removed after the union’s election tribunal found her to have distributed union membership cards to non-members to vote on polling day.
Given that becoming prominent in the Union Society is seen as a route into politics - both because of the practice and prominence, and because each term you get to meet and have dinner with, before the debates, a string of senior current politicians, many of whom come actively looking for prospective future talent - she’s done the opposite. If she wanted a political career, that’s one story from which she will never escape.
The president-elect of the Oxford Union has been removed from the position for committing electoral fraud.
Catherine Xu, a postgraduate student at Exeter College, was removed after the union’s election tribunal found her to have distributed union membership cards to non-members to vote on polling day.
Given that becoming prominent in the Union Society is seen as a route into politics - both because of the practice and prominence, and because each term you get to meet and have dinner with, before the debates, a string of senior current politicians, many of whom come actively looking for prospective future talent - she’s done the opposite. If she wanted a political career, that’s one story from which she will never escape.
This is the second year running that an Oxford Union president-elect has been ousted. Last time it was over Charlie Kirk's assassination.
Even Reform voters tend not to think it's a great idea.
With Reform UK threatening to open migrant detention centres in Green constituencies, by 45% to 19% Britons say it is unacceptable for governments to base decisions that affect individual constituencies based on how people there voted https://x.com/YouGov/status/2051697130117501393
Comments
Same thing is going to happen with the Type 45s. The eldest of those was launched 20 years ago and no substantive work has been done on a replacement. Now, granted the class as a whole hasn't been worked to death the way the Type 23s have (partially due to them spending so long under refit to get new generators) but I'd be surprised if those hulls have another decade left before they turn into floating money pits.
And the worst thing is that it is happening almost without comment.
https://x.com/ftenergy/status/2051698435732951067
Norway to reopen three gasfields closed down last century
Bear in mind -though- that if they pick-up the Caithness seat then that essentially precludes them from getting a Highlands and Islands list seat. So while seven (or even eight) looks within reach, to get to twelve requires some serious good fortune.
https://www.itv.com/news/wales/2026-05-05/plaid-cymru-on-course-to-be-largest-party-in-the-senedd-according-to-latest-poll
Plaid Cymru has jumped ahead to be the predicted largest party in the Senedd Election according to the latest ITV Cymru Wales opinion poll.
The findings, released two days before polls open, show Rhun ap Iorwerth’s party with 33% of the vote share, four percentage points ahead of Reform UK at 29%.
According to MRP modelling by YouGov for ITV Cymru Wales in partnership with Cardiff University, under the new d’Hondt voting system, this round of results means Plaid Cymru would win 43 seats and Reform would take 34.
There's an interesting point here. You run a gas field. Over time the pressure drops so that the amount of gas coming the surface is not enough to justify your operating costs, so you shut it in.
Here's the thing: gas fields aren't completely porous. The area around the wellbore will have the lowest pressure, while there will be areas a long way away which have much higher pressure, but the gas can only migrate at a relatively modest rate.
If you leave a field for -say- four decades then the pressure will equalize across the field. Now, if you uncap the well, the pressure will be much higher, and you might get a couple of years of good flow from it before the pressure drops sufficiently to make it uneconomic.
Operation Epic Fury
Or should that be Epic Stupid?
Because it was
Newcastle Green Party
@NCLGreenParty
·
15m
Newcastle Green Party withdraws endorsement of two candidates
https://x.com/NCLGreenParty/status/2051772038553981193
NEW: Welsh nurseries have been urged to report racist toddlers' hate crimes to the police in guidance back by Labour
[@Telegraph]
They are a shoo in for Caithness so I would say between 7 and 10 seats looks decent outcome for them
"I mentioned climate change once, but I think I got away with it."
Catherine Xu, a postgraduate student at Exeter College, was removed after the union’s election tribunal found her to have distributed union membership cards to non-members to vote on polling day.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/05/05/oxford-union-president-elect-ousted-for-faking-votes/
Getting practice in for becoming an MP?
Cole-Hamilton keeps a good chunk of the posh areas like Corstorphine in his seat, Northern also encroaches east towards Newhaven which is edging towards student/Green territory. Definite possibility, but would need a the Labour and Tory vote to collapse into LD. They are helped a bit as there is a Green candidate.
They'll definitely get some list seats but not one in every region, and definitely not Highlands. Incidentally Highlands has less voters than every other region, so you could say they get more representation, approx 360,000 voters, every other region has more than 500,000
@YouGov
final projections find.
📉Likelihood of SNP winning 65+ seats has fallen from 89% to just 11% in last four weeks, MRP model says.
🇬🇧 Unionist fightback in a few vital swing seats may thwart Swinney's indyref plan.
Greens set for major breakthrough - winning two constituencies.
👋Russell Findlay could lose Holyrood seat, due to Jackson Carlaw edging ahead in his constituency race.
➡️Reform to fail to win a single constituency - but become main opposition.
Seat projections, based on MRP model and poll of 6,543 Scots:
🟡SNP 62 (-2 vs 2021}
➡️Reform UK 19 (+19)
🔴 Labour 17 (-5)
🟢Green 16 (+8)
🟠LibDem 8 (+4)
🔵Con 7 (-24)
https://x.com/DSanderson_85/status/2051769888083947952?s=20
https://x.com/DSanderson_85/status/2051769890625745074?s=20
https://x.com/DSanderson_85/status/2051769893175857402?s=20
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/sack-starmer-farage-election-threat-labour-rebels-4398625
It's badged as follows and as such appears to offer a bit more of an unbiased overview than the nightly pieces pushed by Burnham's camp: "The i Paper spoke to more than a dozen insiders from across all wings of the party about the possibility of a leadership challenge and found MPs are unable to agree amid claim and counterclaim on their best course of action."
Basically, Labour MPs appear to be all over the shop. Stuff seems to be going on but all those alleged to be behind anything are denying that it is (they would, wouldn't they?)
This extract might be telling though:
"One Labour MP, a supporter of Starmer, said they had experienced “overt canvassing” from both Streeting and Rayner’s camps which suggested that “we seem to be heading to a contest now which means Burnham can’t stand”. Another MP said both sides have “become overtly friendly” with Rayner’s allies in particular “warming folks up”, adding there was “definitely an operation”. However, allies of both the immediate potential contenders denied the claims, with both believed to be reluctant to move first."
Remember that the role of Labour MPs is to enable a contest not to veto one. Even if just one candidate is prepared to stand and 20% support him/her, a contest with Starmer is on. It doesn't matter what the other 80% think because they then can't stop it going to the members to decide.
Support: 47%
Oppose: 20%
56% of Labour, 55% of LD and 58% of Green voters in favour. Tory voters also in favour by 38% to 27%, as are Reform voters by a narrow 34% to 31%
https://x.com/YouGov/status/2051704265475772455?s=20
It's called corporation tax.
Newsnight doing what the rest of the media should have done !
Caution with regard to LD seat numbers -except in 2024- has usually been a winning betting strategy.
But we specifically tax money that is not sent to employees, and remains in the hands of corporates, by a tax on their profits.
Wasn't expecting Alan Reid to be selected/stand again. Argyll is definitely on the LD radar but it looks too far out to take this time. I think Kate Forbes old seat could be really close, and Inverness effectively a 3 way marginal.
Zarah Sultana, the former Labour MP and co-founder of Your Party, in a post on X in October, highlighted the rapes of two Sikh and Punjabi women in Walsall and Oldbury and said: “These horrifying attacks show how racism and misogyny feed each other – fuelled by the rise of fascism and hate.” In response, Prior, 54, is alleged to have said: “Good. Reap it.”
As an aside I was the geosteering geologist on the first field ever reopened in Norway about 20 years ago.
It's amazing to think that 40 years can restore a field to decent pressure, and can allow ultimate recoverables to move up so much.
It would be more surprising to find that a low pressure void would persist indefinitely, I think.
Telling.
Staff told to prosecute as quickly as they can, rather than waiting to gather all evidence, to tackle ‘climate of fear’ felt by Jewish community
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy82p2x86qzo
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/obituaries/2026/05/04/dame-shirley-porter-westminster-council-homes-for-votes/ (£££)
It wasn't just homes for votes.
The notices do remind householders that they can arrange free removal of bulky items, although about half of what is tipped looks to my untutored eye like normal household rubbish. There was a bloke in the betting shop who had problems with neighbours putting their bins outside his house on collection day. I often wonder if some people do not realise council bin collections are free.
With Reform UK threatening to open migrant detention centres in Green constituencies, by 45% to 19% Britons say it is unacceptable for governments to base decisions that affect individual constituencies based on how people there voted
https://x.com/YouGov/status/2051697130117501393
Zack Polanski falsely claimed to be British Red Cross spokesperson, charity says
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/may/05/zack-polanski-falsely-claimed-to-be-british-red-cross-spokesperson-charity-says
What Zack is cleverly doing is ensuring he gets his message out via his own podcast etc so he gets to tell people its just racist anti-semtic billionaire owned media trying to stop the revolution.
Although all the infrastructure is gone, in this case the tie back is simple. They don't have to put the template in the same place as the original platform since they are drilling new wells.
https://www.presstv.ir/
“24. Members should not register under this category:
“a) Benefits which could not reasonably be thought by others to be related to membership of the House or to the Member’s parliamentary or political activities; for example, purely personal gifts or benefits from partners or family members. However, both the possible motive of the giver and the use to which the gift is to be put should be considered. If there is any doubt, the benefit should be registered;”
I find it hard to see how £5 million relating to his work as a politician and given by someone who is a political donor to his party passes that test.
Farage said, “And believe you me, we've looked at this from every legal angle, there is no obligation to declare something that is an unconditional, non-political, personal gift.” However, the register of interests is not like paying tax, where you can argue at the edges. The register says you should err on the side of caution (“if there is any doubt, the benefit should be registered”). If you’re getting legal advice about whether something should be declared, then it should be declared!
As an aside, if someone's offering £5m to anyone so they can be financially secure, I am available to receive such donations.
RefUK 25%(-1),
LAB 18%(nc),
CON 17%(-2),
GRN 15%(nc)
LDEM 14%(+1),
https://x.com/SamCoatesSky/status/2051889713057837206?s=20
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