🔵Leads on 13 of 15 attributes 🔵Positive scores on principled (+2), decisive (+2) and competent (+2) 🔵 Weakest on looking like a PM (-17), though still ahead of rivals
So how many net gains do you expect Kemi's Tories to make on Thursday in the locals based on this polling?
It's not a fair comparison because you're measuring her against the greatest Tory election winner this century in Boris Johnson.
Err when these elections were fought in 2022 the Tories made a net loss of nearly 500 seats.
She should be making net gains,.
The brand is the issue, not the leader and she has gained support across the party and increasingly with the public
There are 3 years for her to recover the brand, and in that time Farage and Polanski have a mountain to climb to maintain their own support
Thursday will be judgement day on Starmer not Kemi Badenoch
You keep spinning that.
Kemi seems to trigger you for some reason, but the polling is consistent as is the trend for her which is the first requirement for her to lead a brand recovery
I see you’re playing the man and not the ball.
Maybe because you seem almost obsessively negative about her.
She’s got a great deal to be negative about.
The trend is her friend.
Needs more time. Will the party collapse in panic when Reform easily eclipses them on Thursday, or hold on for the long haul?
I mentioned on here a few weeks ago from some reliable sources whilst if there was a VONC she’d lose it but there’s no appetite for one.
She might persuade them if she tries to pass off a poor night as a good result.
The current state of the parliamentary party is demoralised, some Tory MPs don’t fancy winning the next election because in the words of one of them we’d have to force feed the electorate the shittest of shit sandwiches in government.
Given the hate Rachel and Keir have got for tentatively serving up an hors d'oeuvre de merde, that's sort of understandable. But it's the flip side of all those Labour MPs sulking because they don't want to cut things.
If we're not prepared as a country to let governments do unpleasant things for the national good, we are heading for much more than a sandwich of shit.
The hors d'oeuvre de merde has been incredibly badly delivered - it could have been presented in a way that said we are all in this together and instead its been left to employers to pick up the slack.
That's beginning to smell like a bit more than just a press hatchet job, but a pattern of unserious behaviour. I appreciate that the press ARE indeed out to get him, but as the Golders Green comments demonstrate pretty clearly, there is also a lot less to him than meets the eye.
Under scrutiny Polanski is left wanting. I am sure the same will be true of Farage, but will he ever be put under any scrutiny?
Polanski and Farage are both lying unscrupulous populist chancers.
A bit clickbaity. Angela Rayner has published a video of her school visit telling children about Nigel Farage and the NHS.
The Education Act outlaws ‘political indoctrination’ and the Online Safety Act says platforms should remove online misinformation, albeit with a carve-out for politicians.
I think what she said was perfectly acceptable. The student brought up Farage and she was just responding .
So according to the pearl clutching barrister she’s not allowed to answer the question.
Fxck him and his faux outrage !
There's a whole underclass of lawyers it seems who simply abuse the legal system for their own ends.
It really undermines my view of lawyers. And thus records are set!
It's more BBB. He went quite far right a year or two ago, and in particular obsessed about Starmer, and TV licences - amongst other things.
The judges need to just start dismissing lots and lots of cases. Migrant A vs whoever - dismissed. Collective B vs whoever - dismissed. You get the idea. When the scum of the legal profession can no longer rely on being entertained then they'll go off and die in a corner, the state will save loads, and hey we get dead lawyers.. (Top lawyers are a different matter altogether though. I'd not lump them in with the rubbish. No... definitely not...)
Oi! I frequently quote them. This is because - as I said at the time - they produce good graphics quickly, like the below. And the minute LukeTryl or YouGov produce choropleths I will do the same. As for their personal account, knock yourself out. The bio is a bit - how can I put this - expansive.
Oh Kemi, defending Tommy Robinson is not a good look, there’s a reason why even Farage avoids him like the plague.
"There is something very specific happening to Jewish communities”
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch says she supports a moratorium on pro-Palestinian marches but not for the march led by far-right activist Tommy Robinson later this month
If you’re going to ban one then you ban the other aswell .
What's Robinson done that's actually illegal, other than the contempt of court stuff? I grant you he's good at dog-whistling to thugs, but I think he's fairly careful not to do anything that would get him nicked for incitement.
The issue with the pro-Palestinian marches is that there's been a lot of stuff which crosses that line, and the plod don't seem very interested in doing anything about it.
What's Robinson done that's illegal? This is stuff he's been found guilty of in court, unless otherwise specified.
2003: assaulted a police officer 2011: threatening, abusive or insulting behaviour ("Robinson reportedly led the group of Luton fans and played an integral part in starting a 100-man brawl, during which he chanted, "EDL till I die."") 2011: re-arrested while on bail for breaking bail conditions by attending another English Defence League demonstration 2011: assault (of another EDL member) 2011: illegal protest on rooftop of the FIFA building in Zurich 2012: use of a false passport 2012: mortgage fraud 2017: contempt of court (filming and posting about an ongoing trial) 2018: another contempt of court 2018: libelled a Syrian refugee child 2020: arrested for breaking COVID-19 lockdown rules (unclear if this led to a fine, charge or what) 2021: stalking a journalist 2022: fined for failing to appear in court over proceedings related to his declaring bankruptcy in 2021 2024: investigation started into Robinson's alleged role in inciting the Southport riots - still ongoing AFAIK 2024: investigation started into his tax affairs - still ongoing AFAIK 2024: contempt of court (repeating the 2018 libel) 2024: harrassing two more journalists: charged in 2025, trial due later this year
Okay, but other than that, what’s he done that’s ACTUALLY illegal?
Lots of seats in play at this election, some, like Edinburgh Northern, and Edinburgh North Eastern it isn't clear who the main challenger is (prob Lib Dem in the former and Lab/Green in the latter)
Voters in Edinburgh North Eastern and Leith have the choice of Green candidate Kate Nevens, who has advocated for the abolition of prisons
There is a very faint murmur of a modest Tory revival as we get closer to polling day, but it looks far too late in the campaign to do serious damage to Reform. Speaking of Reform, a lot of their hopeful MSPs appear to be classic paper candidates. I think a number of them are going to get a fair shock this weekend when they are elected to Holyrood via the list. I've seen evidence that some in some seats the Reform candidate has a decent social media profile, and in others, you wouldn't even know they had a candidate standing.
One thing that hasn't really been touched on is the likelihood for Reform to scoop up more votes than expected in working class areas from ex SNP voters. We generally think of Reform as hoovering up almost exclusively previous Labour and Tory voters, it will be interesting to see where they poll the strongest. Generally speaking, areas where the Greens are strong (Edinburgh), Reform are weak, and vice versa
In the Highlands, if the SNP do lose a few seats, then they could score 1 or 2 replacements via the list. Outside of that, the only other area the SNP realistically have a chance to get a list seat is South, and maybe Edinburgh if they lost Central, Northern and East Lothian Coast.
As ridiculous as it sounds, Labour could win 0 constituencies on Thursday if their vote is spread too thinly. They polled 21.5% in the constituencies in 2021, and are currently polling between 17 and 20%. They should at least win Edinburgh Southern but that depends heavily on continued Tory tactical voting
Rural areas are looking by far the trickiest for the SNP, in part due to the weakness of Labour in the central belt. The Lib Dems are coming back into play in their former heartlands, and should regain some list seats too
Lib Dems feeling pretty chipper, with morale pretty high and some real optimism for gains on both list and in several constituencies. The big news may be the fall of Labour across the board and the fall of the SNP in rural areas, though the SNP will most likely hang on to power though Labour switchbackers. I also think the Tory vote will hold up better than previous expectations, but still lose a few, and although overall Reform will gain, it will be lower than expectations. The Greens are pretty Marmite, though they do seem on course for some gains too. SNP minority government and growing frustration to come. Scotland will stand where it did, afraid to know itself.
That's beginning to smell like a bit more than just a press hatchet job, but a pattern of unserious behaviour. I appreciate that the press ARE indeed out to get him, but as the Golders Green comments demonstrate pretty clearly, there is also a lot less to him than meets the eye.
Under scrutiny Polanski is left wanting. I am sure the same will be true of Farage, but will he ever be put under the microscope?
Starmer is a lucky General. Badenoch not so much.
An interesting thought experiment is how would the Greens be doing if Lucas was now leader. She doesn't have the social media verve of Polanski (he is genuinely superb at that), so I think their current vote share would be lower. But it would also be much more solid, and much more dangerous to Labour by the time another GE comes around.
🔵Leads on 13 of 15 attributes 🔵Positive scores on principled (+2), decisive (+2) and competent (+2) 🔵 Weakest on looking like a PM (-17), though still ahead of rivals
So how many net gains do you expect Kemi's Tories to make on Thursday in the locals based on this polling?
The conservatives will not perform well, but Kemi's increasing popularity is the best hope of a recovery for the conservatives in 2029 and certainly to beat Farage
Come the next GE I reckon the top 2 in terms of votes will be Labour and the Tories - just not sure in which order!
Lots of seats in play at this election, some, like Edinburgh Northern, and Edinburgh North Eastern it isn't clear who the main challenger is (prob Lib Dem in the former and Lab/Green in the latter)
Voters in Edinburgh North Eastern and Leith have the choice of Green candidate Kate Nevens, who has advocated for the abolition of prisons
There is a very faint murmur of a modest Tory revival as we get closer to polling day, but it looks far too late in the campaign to do serious damage to Reform. Speaking of Reform, a lot of their hopeful MSPs appear to be classic paper candidates. I think a number of them are going to get a fair shock this weekend when they are elected to Holyrood via the list. I've seen evidence that some in some seats the Reform candidate has a decent social media profile, and in others, you wouldn't even know they had a candidate standing.
One thing that hasn't really been touched on is the likelihood for Reform to scoop up more votes than expected in working class areas from ex SNP voters. We generally think of Reform as hoovering up almost exclusively previous Labour and Tory voters, it will be interesting to see where they poll the strongest. Generally speaking, areas where the Greens are strong (Edinburgh), Reform are weak, and vice versa
In the Highlands, if the SNP do lose a few seats, then they could score 1 or 2 replacements via the list. Outside of that, the only other area the SNP realistically have a chance to get a list seat is South, and maybe Edinburgh if they lost Central, Northern and East Lothian Coast.
As ridiculous as it sounds, Labour could win 0 constituencies on Thursday if their vote is spread too thinly. They polled 21.5% in the constituencies in 2021, and are currently polling between 17 and 20%. They should at least win Edinburgh Southern but that depends heavily on continued Tory tactical voting
Rural areas are looking by far the trickiest for the SNP, in part due to the weakness of Labour in the central belt. The Lib Dems are coming back into play in their former heartlands, and should regain some list seats too
Lib Dems feeling pretty chipper, with morale pretty high and some real optimism for gains on both list and in several constituencies. The big news may be the fall of Labour across the board and the fall of the SNP in rural areas, though the SNP will most likely hang on to power though Labour switchbackers. I also think the Tory vote will hold up better than previous expectations, but still lose a few, and although overall Reform will gain, it will be lower than expectations. The Greens are pretty Marmite, though they do seem on course for some gains too. SNP minority government and growing frustration to come. Scotland will stand where it did, afraid to know itself.
Oi! I frequently quote them. This is because - as I said at the time - they produce good graphics quickly, like the below. And the minute LukeTryl or YouGov produce choropleths I will do the same. As for their personal account, knock yourself out. The bio is a bit - how can I put this - expansive.
Cloropleths are rubbish for Scotland. I'd give that a C - it doesn't even have a central belt inset map. An A student would use hexbins.
That's beginning to smell like a bit more than just a press hatchet job, but a pattern of unserious behaviour. I appreciate that the press ARE indeed out to get him, but as the Golders Green comments demonstrate pretty clearly, there is also a lot less to him than meets the eye.
Under scrutiny Polanski is left wanting. I am sure the same will be true of Farage, but will he ever be put under the microscope?
Starmer is a lucky General. Badenoch not so much.
An interesting thought experiment is how would the Greens be doing if Lucas was now leader. She doesn't have the social media verve of Polanski (he is genuinely superb at that), so I think their current vote share would be lower. But it would also be much more solid, and much more dangerous to Labour by the time another GE comes around.
Caroline Lucas was MP for Brighton 2021 - 2024. The Greens ran the council, sometimes as a minority administration. After experiencing what having the Greens in charge actually mentioned for local services Brighton voters turfed them out in 2023 and gave Labour one of its best results in those elections.
Solid and dangerous to Labour?
Possibly all these Gaza-obsessed Green councillors will do a fine job running councils, a much better one than people who actually cared about environmental issues?
That's beginning to smell like a bit more than just a press hatchet job, but a pattern of unserious behaviour. I appreciate that the press ARE indeed out to get him, but as the Golders Green comments demonstrate pretty clearly, there is also a lot less to him than meets the eye.
Under scrutiny Polanski is left wanting. I am sure the same will be true of Farage, but will he ever be put under the microscope?
Starmer is a lucky General. Badenoch not so much.
An interesting thought experiment is how would the Greens be doing if Lucas was now leader. She doesn't have the social media verve of Polanski (he is genuinely superb at that), so I think their current vote share would be lower. But it would also be much more solid, and much more dangerous to Labour by the time another GE comes around.
I don't think the alternative to being put off by the Greens being gruesome is necessarily to return to the Labour fold.
Oi! I frequently quote them. This is because - as I said at the time - they produce good graphics quickly, like the below. And the minute LukeTryl or YouGov produce choropleths I will do the same. As for their personal account, knock yourself out. The bio is a bit - how can I put this - expansive.
Cloropleths are rubbish for Scotland. I'd give that a C - it doesn't even have a central belt inset map. An A student would use hexbins.
Yes, I like hexbins too. The advantage of keeping the boundaries the same for GEs during the 2010s is that you could reuse them
That's beginning to smell like a bit more than just a press hatchet job, but a pattern of unserious behaviour. I appreciate that the press ARE indeed out to get him, but as the Golders Green comments demonstrate pretty clearly, there is also a lot less to him than meets the eye.
Under scrutiny Polanski is left wanting. I am sure the same will be true of Farage, but will he ever be put under the microscope?
Starmer is a lucky General. Badenoch not so much.
An interesting thought experiment is how would the Greens be doing if Lucas was now leader. She doesn't have the social media verve of Polanski (he is genuinely superb at that), so I think their current vote share would be lower. But it would also be much more solid, and much more dangerous to Labour by the time another GE comes around.
Caroline Lucas was MP for Brighton 2021 - 2024. The Greens ran the council, sometimes as a minority administration. After experiencing what having the Greens in charge actually mentioned for local services Brighton voters turfed them out in 2023 and gave Labour one of its best results in those elections.
Solid and dangerous to Labour?
Possibly all these Gaza-obsessed Green councillors will do a fine job running councils, a much better one than people who actually cared about environmental issues?
But I wouldn't bet on this.
People are desperate for a decent, moderate, left-wing alternative. The SNP are about to win another stonking plurality (or even majority). I've no doubt Lucas would be in the high teens at least if she could provide something similar in England & Wales.
And I don't think local politics stories like this have any impact at all. The record of Reform in Kent is going to have next to zero bearing on their vote in the mining villages of West Lothian.
That's beginning to smell like a bit more than just a press hatchet job, but a pattern of unserious behaviour. I appreciate that the press ARE indeed out to get him, but as the Golders Green comments demonstrate pretty clearly, there is also a lot less to him than meets the eye.
Under scrutiny Polanski is left wanting. I am sure the same will be true of Farage, but will he ever be put under the microscope?
Starmer is a lucky General. Badenoch not so much.
An interesting thought experiment is how would the Greens be doing if Lucas was now leader. She doesn't have the social media verve of Polanski (he is genuinely superb at that), so I think their current vote share would be lower. But it would also be much more solid, and much more dangerous to Labour by the time another GE comes around.
Caroline Lucas was MP for Brighton 2021 - 2024. The Greens ran the council, sometimes as a minority administration. After experiencing what having the Greens in charge actually mentioned for local services Brighton voters turfed them out in 2023 and gave Labour one of its best results in those elections.
Solid and dangerous to Labour?
Possibly all these Gaza-obsessed Green councillors will do a fine job running councils, a much better one than people who actually cared about environmental issues?
But I wouldn't bet on this.
People are desperate for a decent, moderate, left-wing alternative. The SNP are about to win another stonking plurality (or even majority). I've no doubt Lucas would be in the high teens at least if she could provide something similar in England & Wales.
And I don't think local politics stories like this have any impact at all. The record of Reform in Kent is going to have next to zero bearing on their vote in the mining villages of West Lothian.
"People are desperate for a decent, moderate, left-wing alternative."
People are keen on a decent, moderate right-wing alternative too.
Where oh where are the LDs. It's entirely the maddest thing that they simply are absent.
That's beginning to smell like a bit more than just a press hatchet job, but a pattern of unserious behaviour. I appreciate that the press ARE indeed out to get him, but as the Golders Green comments demonstrate pretty clearly, there is also a lot less to him than meets the eye.
Under scrutiny Polanski is left wanting. I am sure the same will be true of Farage, but will he ever be put under the microscope?
Farage is under constant scrutiny. Just this year we have had microscopic detail about every ghastly deed he did as a schoolboy. Just this week we have had the £5 million gift/donation malarkey. Despite consistent support from bits of the media I only hear about via PB, only about a quarter of the public approve of him. Which is a quarter too many.
As to microscopic critical analysis, try: Ch4, Guardian, Economist, New Statesman, Mirror, FT, ITV, the Scottish media, Michael Crick, Times Radio, LBC (ever heard James O'Brien on the subject? Or Andrew Marr?)
That's beginning to smell like a bit more than just a press hatchet job, but a pattern of unserious behaviour. I appreciate that the press ARE indeed out to get him, but as the Golders Green comments demonstrate pretty clearly, there is also a lot less to him than meets the eye.
Under scrutiny Polanski is left wanting. I am sure the same will be true of Farage, but will he ever be put under the microscope?
Starmer is a lucky General. Badenoch not so much.
An interesting thought experiment is how would the Greens be doing if Lucas was now leader. She doesn't have the social media verve of Polanski (he is genuinely superb at that), so I think their current vote share would be lower. But it would also be much more solid, and much more dangerous to Labour by the time another GE comes around.
Caroline Lucas was MP for Brighton 2021 - 2024. The Greens ran the council, sometimes as a minority administration. After experiencing what having the Greens in charge actually mentioned for local services Brighton voters turfed them out in 2023 and gave Labour one of its best results in those elections.
Solid and dangerous to Labour?
Possibly all these Gaza-obsessed Green councillors will do a fine job running councils, a much better one than people who actually cared about environmental issues?
But I wouldn't bet on this.
People are desperate for a decent, moderate, left-wing alternative. The SNP are about to win another stonking plurality (or even majority). I've no doubt Lucas would be in the high teens at least if she could provide something similar in England & Wales.
And I don't think local politics stories like this have any impact at all. The record of Reform in Kent is going to have next to zero bearing on their vote in the mining villages of West Lothian.
You may well be right that it won't affect winning a first election. But experience of them in power does affect whether they can keep hold of that power and build on it. The evidence from Brighton suggests not.
Will Polanski's party be different? I can see it getting lots of new votes. It's what happens then that will tell us if it really is something different, worthwhile and lasting.
Of course it may last but also be malign. See also Reform.
Sam Dumitriu @Sam_Dumitriu · 54m I feel bad for the women who believed they were getting a hypnotic breast enlargement from a qualified and regulated professional.
That's beginning to smell like a bit more than just a press hatchet job, but a pattern of unserious behaviour. I appreciate that the press ARE indeed out to get him, but as the Golders Green comments demonstrate pretty clearly, there is also a lot less to him than meets the eye.
Under scrutiny Polanski is left wanting. I am sure the same will be true of Farage, but will he ever be put under the microscope?
Farage is under constant scrutiny. Just this year we have had microscopic detail about every ghastly deed he did as a schoolboy. Just this week we have had the £5 million gift/donation malarkey. Despite consistent support from bits of the media I only hear about via PB, only about a quarter of the public approve of him. Which is a quarter too many.
As to microscopic critical analysis, try: Ch4, Guardian, Economist, New Statesman, Mirror, FT, ITV, the Scottish media, Michael Crick, Times Radio, LBC (ever heard James O'Brien on the subject? Or Andrew Marr?)
And yet the voters who vote for him don't care that someone has given him £5m in return for favours that aren't known..
That's beginning to smell like a bit more than just a press hatchet job, but a pattern of unserious behaviour. I appreciate that the press ARE indeed out to get him, but as the Golders Green comments demonstrate pretty clearly, there is also a lot less to him than meets the eye.
Under scrutiny Polanski is left wanting. I am sure the same will be true of Farage, but will he ever be put under the microscope?
Starmer is a lucky General. Badenoch not so much.
An interesting thought experiment is how would the Greens be doing if Lucas was now leader. She doesn't have the social media verve of Polanski (he is genuinely superb at that), so I think their current vote share would be lower. But it would also be much more solid, and much more dangerous to Labour by the time another GE comes around.
Caroline Lucas was MP for Brighton 2021 - 2024. The Greens ran the council, sometimes as a minority administration. After experiencing what having the Greens in charge actually mentioned for local services Brighton voters turfed them out in 2023 and gave Labour one of its best results in those elections.
Solid and dangerous to Labour?
Possibly all these Gaza-obsessed Green councillors will do a fine job running councils, a much better one than people who actually cared about environmental issues?
But I wouldn't bet on this.
People are desperate for a decent, moderate, left-wing alternative. The SNP are about to win another stonking plurality (or even majority). I've no doubt Lucas would be in the high teens at least if she could provide something similar in England & Wales.
And I don't think local politics stories like this have any impact at all. The record of Reform in Kent is going to have next to zero bearing on their vote in the mining villages of West Lothian.
"People are desperate for a decent, moderate, left-wing alternative."
People are keen on a decent, moderate right-wing alternative too.
Where oh where are the LDs. It's entirely the maddest thing that they simply are absent.
You could equally ask where are the Conservatives currently - they are being driven back into their heartlands, islands of strength surrounded by oceans of irrelevance.
They are becoming like the Liberal Democrats admittedly with a slightly larger vote (15-20% perhaps).
Indeed, the notion want a "decent, moderate" alternative of either "left" or "right" doesn't really stand up to inspection. Many are angry, desperate and stupid enough to buy whatever snake oil is being peddled around.
As it seems the biggest debate currently is how many people are going to be deported by the next Government, perhaps we generally do get the politicians we deserve.
That's beginning to smell like a bit more than just a press hatchet job, but a pattern of unserious behaviour. I appreciate that the press ARE indeed out to get him, but as the Golders Green comments demonstrate pretty clearly, there is also a lot less to him than meets the eye.
Under scrutiny Polanski is left wanting. I am sure the same will be true of Farage, but will he ever be put under the microscope?
Farage is under constant scrutiny. Just this year we have had microscopic detail about every ghastly deed he did as a schoolboy. Just this week we have had the £5 million gift/donation malarkey. Despite consistent support from bits of the media I only hear about via PB, only about a quarter of the public approve of him. Which is a quarter too many.
As to microscopic critical analysis, try: Ch4, Guardian, Economist, New Statesman, Mirror, FT, ITV, the Scottish media, Michael Crick, Times Radio, LBC (ever heard James O'Brien on the subject? Or Andrew Marr?)
The £12m to Reform and the £5m to Farage hasn't had anything like the media coverage Mrs Starmer's underwear and Starmer's spectacles received. The Guardian raised it and virtually no one, certainly not the BBC, has run with it. Johnson's wallpaper received more coverage (pardon the pun).
That's beginning to smell like a bit more than just a press hatchet job, but a pattern of unserious behaviour. I appreciate that the press ARE indeed out to get him, but as the Golders Green comments demonstrate pretty clearly, there is also a lot less to him than meets the eye.
Under scrutiny Polanski is left wanting. I am sure the same will be true of Farage, but will he ever be put under the microscope?
Starmer is a lucky General. Badenoch not so much.
An interesting thought experiment is how would the Greens be doing if Lucas was now leader. She doesn't have the social media verve of Polanski (he is genuinely superb at that), so I think their current vote share would be lower. But it would also be much more solid, and much more dangerous to Labour by the time another GE comes around.
Caroline Lucas was MP for Brighton 2021 - 2024. The Greens ran the council, sometimes as a minority administration. After experiencing what having the Greens in charge actually mentioned for local services Brighton voters turfed them out in 2023 and gave Labour one of its best results in those elections.
Solid and dangerous to Labour?
Possibly all these Gaza-obsessed Green councillors will do a fine job running councils, a much better one than people who actually cared about environmental issues?
But I wouldn't bet on this.
People are desperate for a decent, moderate, left-wing alternative. The SNP are about to win another stonking plurality (or even majority). I've no doubt Lucas would be in the high teens at least if she could provide something similar in England & Wales.
And I don't think local politics stories like this have any impact at all. The record of Reform in Kent is going to have next to zero bearing on their vote in the mining villages of West Lothian.
"People are desperate for a decent, moderate, left-wing alternative."
People are keen on a decent, moderate right-wing alternative too.
Where oh where are the LDs. It's entirely the maddest thing that they simply are absent.
I think a central difficulty about a 'moderate left wing alternative' is that the moderate left, like the left as whole, starts with a fixed position of being determined to overlook the realities of the fiscal state we are currently in WRT debt, deficit, borrowing and tax. Essentially this involves embracing explicitly (or more often implicitly by silence) some version of MMT which the laws of reality and most opinion reject.
Such offerings as Burnham has made, for example, perform a conjuring trick to borrow further our way out of trouble.
That's beginning to smell like a bit more than just a press hatchet job, but a pattern of unserious behaviour. I appreciate that the press ARE indeed out to get him, but as the Golders Green comments demonstrate pretty clearly, there is also a lot less to him than meets the eye.
Under scrutiny Polanski is left wanting. I am sure the same will be true of Farage, but will he ever be put under the microscope?
Farage is under constant scrutiny. Just this year we have had microscopic detail about every ghastly deed he did as a schoolboy. Just this week we have had the £5 million gift/donation malarkey. Despite consistent support from bits of the media I only hear about via PB, only about a quarter of the public approve of him. Which is a quarter too many.
As to microscopic critical analysis, try: Ch4, Guardian, Economist, New Statesman, Mirror, FT, ITV, the Scottish media, Michael Crick, Times Radio, LBC (ever heard James O'Brien on the subject? Or Andrew Marr?)
The £12m to Reform and the £5m to Farage hasn't had anything like the media coverage Mrs Starmer's underwear and Starmer's spectacles received. The Guardian raised it and virtually no one, certainly not the BBC, has run with it. Johnson's wallpaper received more coverage (pardon the pun).
Starmer and Boris being Prime Minister whilst receiving their gifts might have something to do with it I suppose.
That's beginning to smell like a bit more than just a press hatchet job, but a pattern of unserious behaviour. I appreciate that the press ARE indeed out to get him, but as the Golders Green comments demonstrate pretty clearly, there is also a lot less to him than meets the eye.
Under scrutiny Polanski is left wanting. I am sure the same will be true of Farage, but will he ever be put under the microscope?
Farage is under constant scrutiny. Just this year we have had microscopic detail about every ghastly deed he did as a schoolboy. Just this week we have had the £5 million gift/donation malarkey. Despite consistent support from bits of the media I only hear about via PB, only about a quarter of the public approve of him. Which is a quarter too many.
As to microscopic critical analysis, try: Ch4, Guardian, Economist, New Statesman, Mirror, FT, ITV, the Scottish media, Michael Crick, Times Radio, LBC (ever heard James O'Brien on the subject? Or Andrew Marr?)
And yet the voters who vote for him don't care that someone has given him £5m in return for favours that aren't known..
Yes, a good proportion of voters are, IMHO, and not just Reform ones, gullible idiots, but the precise point I made stands.
That's beginning to smell like a bit more than just a press hatchet job, but a pattern of unserious behaviour. I appreciate that the press ARE indeed out to get him, but as the Golders Green comments demonstrate pretty clearly, there is also a lot less to him than meets the eye.
Under scrutiny Polanski is left wanting. I am sure the same will be true of Farage, but will he ever be put under the microscope?
Starmer is a lucky General. Badenoch not so much.
An interesting thought experiment is how would the Greens be doing if Lucas was now leader. She doesn't have the social media verve of Polanski (he is genuinely superb at that), so I think their current vote share would be lower. But it would also be much more solid, and much more dangerous to Labour by the time another GE comes around.
Caroline Lucas was MP for Brighton 2021 - 2024. The Greens ran the council, sometimes as a minority administration. After experiencing what having the Greens in charge actually mentioned for local services Brighton voters turfed them out in 2023 and gave Labour one of its best results in those elections.
Solid and dangerous to Labour?
Possibly all these Gaza-obsessed Green councillors will do a fine job running councils, a much better one than people who actually cared about environmental issues?
But I wouldn't bet on this.
That's not quite accurate, if I may say. Lucas was MP for Brighton Pavilion - one of three Brighton seats. Sian Berry retained the seat for the Greens in 2024, with a healthy majority of over 14k. So the woes of the Green council didn't affect that seat. You are right, however, that the inept way in which the Greens ran the council led to a Labour landslide in 2023.
Oi! I frequently quote them. This is because - as I said at the time - they produce good graphics quickly, like the below. And the minute LukeTryl or YouGov produce choropleths I will do the same. As for their personal account, knock yourself out. The bio is a bit - how can I put this - expansive.
I don't see how the LDs get to 12.
I can see how they go from 4 constituency seats to 6. And I can see how they pick up a couple of list seats. But 6 list seats? That's a real stretch.
That's beginning to smell like a bit more than just a press hatchet job, but a pattern of unserious behaviour. I appreciate that the press ARE indeed out to get him, but as the Golders Green comments demonstrate pretty clearly, there is also a lot less to him than meets the eye.
Under scrutiny Polanski is left wanting. I am sure the same will be true of Farage, but will he ever be put under the microscope?
Starmer is a lucky General. Badenoch not so much.
An interesting thought experiment is how would the Greens be doing if Lucas was now leader. She doesn't have the social media verve of Polanski (he is genuinely superb at that), so I think their current vote share would be lower. But it would also be much more solid, and much more dangerous to Labour by the time another GE comes around.
Caroline Lucas was MP for Brighton 2021 - 2024. The Greens ran the council, sometimes as a minority administration. After experiencing what having the Greens in charge actually mentioned for local services Brighton voters turfed them out in 2023 and gave Labour one of its best results in those elections.
Solid and dangerous to Labour?
Possibly all these Gaza-obsessed Green councillors will do a fine job running councils, a much better one than people who actually cared about environmental issues?
But I wouldn't bet on this.
People are desperate for a decent, moderate, left-wing alternative. The SNP are about to win another stonking plurality (or even majority). I've no doubt Lucas would be in the high teens at least if she could provide something similar in England & Wales.
And I don't think local politics stories like this have any impact at all. The record of Reform in Kent is going to have next to zero bearing on their vote in the mining villages of West Lothian.
"People are desperate for a decent, moderate, left-wing alternative."
People are keen on a decent, moderate right-wing alternative too.
Where oh where are the LDs. It's entirely the maddest thing that they simply are absent.
You could equally ask where are the Conservatives currently - they are being driven back into their heartlands, islands of strength surrounded by oceans of irrelevance.
They are becoming like the Liberal Democrats admittedly with a slightly larger vote (15-20% perhaps).
Indeed, the notion want a "decent, moderate" alternative of either "left" or "right" doesn't really stand up to inspection. Many are angry, desperate and stupid enough to buy whatever snake oil is being peddled around.
As it seems the biggest debate currently is how many people are going to be deported by the next Government, perhaps we generally do get the politicians we deserve.
Yes the Tories are at sea too. I'm no longer a member, but I may rejoin. Badenoch is doing a fairly good job. You know full well that the Tories are more present than the LDs by a big factor.
That's beginning to smell like a bit more than just a press hatchet job, but a pattern of unserious behaviour. I appreciate that the press ARE indeed out to get him, but as the Golders Green comments demonstrate pretty clearly, there is also a lot less to him than meets the eye.
Under scrutiny Polanski is left wanting. I am sure the same will be true of Farage, but will he ever be put under the microscope?
Farage is under constant scrutiny. Just this year we have had microscopic detail about every ghastly deed he did as a schoolboy. Just this week we have had the £5 million gift/donation malarkey. Despite consistent support from bits of the media I only hear about via PB, only about a quarter of the public approve of him. Which is a quarter too many.
As to microscopic critical analysis, try: Ch4, Guardian, Economist, New Statesman, Mirror, FT, ITV, the Scottish media, Michael Crick, Times Radio, LBC (ever heard James O'Brien on the subject? Or Andrew Marr?)
The £12m to Reform and the £5m to Farage hasn't had anything like the media coverage Mrs Starmer's underwear and Starmer's spectacles received. The Guardian raised it and virtually no one, certainly not the BBC, has run with it. Johnson's wallpaper received more coverage (pardon the pun).
Starmer and Boris being Prime Minister whilst receiving their gifts might have something to do with it I suppose.
As to the comparison of Starmer and Farage; my feeling is that people started out with Starmer as PM with the sense that his merit was a boring amount of personal rectitude and common sense with a secret plan to run the country modestly well.
Over trivial freebies rectitude and common sense deserted him, things which go to character and changed our perspective. As did the lack of a plan.
With Farage, in this moral regard he has no reputation to lose, he is plainly a chancer, and the evidence of his schoolfellows alone tend towards showing that he is morally bankrupt in dealing with persons, so stories about £5 million are a less big deal.
🔵Leads on 13 of 15 attributes 🔵Positive scores on principled (+2), decisive (+2) and competent (+2) 🔵 Weakest on looking like a PM (-17), though still ahead of rivals
So how many net gains do you expect Kemi's Tories to make on Thursday in the locals based on this polling?
It's not a fair comparison because you're measuring her against the greatest Tory election winner this century in Boris Johnson.
Err when these elections were fought in 2022 the Tories made a net loss of nearly 500 seats.
She should be making net gains,.
The brand is the issue, not the leader and she has gained support across the party and increasingly with the public
There are 3 years for her to recover the brand, and in that time Farage and Polanski have a mountain to climb to maintain their own support
Thursday will be judgement day on Starmer not Kemi Badenoch
You keep spinning that.
Kemi seems to trigger you for some reason, but the polling is consistent as is the trend for her which is the first requirement for her to lead a brand recovery
I see you’re playing the man and not the ball.
Maybe because you seem almost obsessively negative about her.
She’s got a great deal to be negative about.
The trend is her friend.
Needs more time. Will the party collapse in panic when Reform easily eclipses them on Thursday, or hold on for the long haul?
Her polling is fascinating, nonetheless
I am trying to think of a similar example. A LOTO whose polling began poorly then declined, but then picked up month after month untilhe/she was top of the pops?
I am sure it has happened, but when and who? Cameron?
But on Tuesday Pornhub's owners said Apple users who had confirmed their age with the company's most up-to-date version of iOS, its mobile operating system, would be allowed back onto the site.
That's beginning to smell like a bit more than just a press hatchet job, but a pattern of unserious behaviour. I appreciate that the press ARE indeed out to get him, but as the Golders Green comments demonstrate pretty clearly, there is also a lot less to him than meets the eye.
Under scrutiny Polanski is left wanting. I am sure the same will be true of Farage, but will he ever be put under the microscope?
Starmer is a lucky General. Badenoch not so much.
An interesting thought experiment is how would the Greens be doing if Lucas was now leader. She doesn't have the social media verve of Polanski (he is genuinely superb at that), so I think their current vote share would be lower. But it would also be much more solid, and much more dangerous to Labour by the time another GE comes around.
Caroline Lucas was MP for Brighton 2021 - 2024. The Greens ran the council, sometimes as a minority administration. After experiencing what having the Greens in charge actually mentioned for local services Brighton voters turfed them out in 2023 and gave Labour one of its best results in those elections.
Solid and dangerous to Labour?
Possibly all these Gaza-obsessed Green councillors will do a fine job running councils, a much better one than people who actually cared about environmental issues?
But I wouldn't bet on this.
People are desperate for a decent, moderate, left-wing alternative. The SNP are about to win another stonking plurality (or even majority). I've no doubt Lucas would be in the high teens at least if she could provide something similar in England & Wales.
And I don't think local politics stories like this have any impact at all. The record of Reform in Kent is going to have next to zero bearing on their vote in the mining villages of West Lothian.
"People are desperate for a decent, moderate, left-wing alternative."
People are keen on a decent, moderate right-wing alternative too.
Where oh where are the LDs. It's entirely the maddest thing that they simply are absent.
You could equally ask where are the Conservatives currently - they are being driven back into their heartlands, islands of strength surrounded by oceans of irrelevance.
They are becoming like the Liberal Democrats admittedly with a slightly larger vote (15-20% perhaps).
Indeed, the notion want a "decent, moderate" alternative of either "left" or "right" doesn't really stand up to inspection. Many are angry, desperate and stupid enough to buy whatever snake oil is being peddled around.
As it seems the biggest debate currently is how many people are going to be deported by the next Government, perhaps we generally do get the politicians we deserve.
Yes the Tories are at sea too. I'm no longer a member, but I may rejoin. Badenoch is doing a fairly good job. You know full well that the Tories are more present than the LDs by a big factor.
I expect the LibDems to be ahead of the Conservatives on NEV on Thursday.
That's beginning to smell like a bit more than just a press hatchet job, but a pattern of unserious behaviour. I appreciate that the press ARE indeed out to get him, but as the Golders Green comments demonstrate pretty clearly, there is also a lot less to him than meets the eye.
Under scrutiny Polanski is left wanting. I am sure the same will be true of Farage, but will he ever be put under the microscope?
Farage is under constant scrutiny. Just this year we have had microscopic detail about every ghastly deed he did as a schoolboy. Just this week we have had the £5 million gift/donation malarkey. Despite consistent support from bits of the media I only hear about via PB, only about a quarter of the public approve of him. Which is a quarter too many.
As to microscopic critical analysis, try: Ch4, Guardian, Economist, New Statesman, Mirror, FT, ITV, the Scottish media, Michael Crick, Times Radio, LBC (ever heard James O'Brien on the subject? Or Andrew Marr?)
The £12m to Reform and the £5m to Farage hasn't had anything like the media coverage Mrs Starmer's underwear and Starmer's spectacles received. The Guardian raised it and virtually no one, certainly not the BBC, has run with it. Johnson's wallpaper received more coverage (pardon the pun).
Starmer is prime minister, Boris was prime minister. Farage is not
🔵Leads on 13 of 15 attributes 🔵Positive scores on principled (+2), decisive (+2) and competent (+2) 🔵 Weakest on looking like a PM (-17), though still ahead of rivals
So how many net gains do you expect Kemi's Tories to make on Thursday in the locals based on this polling?
It's not a fair comparison because you're measuring her against the greatest Tory election winner this century in Boris Johnson.
Err when these elections were fought in 2022 the Tories made a net loss of nearly 500 seats.
She should be making net gains,.
The brand is the issue, not the leader and she has gained support across the party and increasingly with the public
There are 3 years for her to recover the brand, and in that time Farage and Polanski have a mountain to climb to maintain their own support
Thursday will be judgement day on Starmer not Kemi Badenoch
You keep spinning that.
Kemi seems to trigger you for some reason, but the polling is consistent as is the trend for her which is the first requirement for her to lead a brand recovery
I see you’re playing the man and not the ball.
Maybe because you seem almost obsessively negative about her.
She’s got a great deal to be negative about.
The trend is her friend.
Needs more time. Will the party collapse in panic when Reform easily eclipses them on Thursday, or hold on for the long haul?
Her polling is fascinating, nonetheless
I am trying to think of a similar example. A LOTO whose polling began poorly then declined, but then picked up month after month untilhe/she was top of the pops?
I am sure it has happened, but when and who? Cameron?
Like I said earlier. Polanski is a walking catastrophe, so is his deputy, and anti-Zio Zack will be gone within months
Maybe less
Back in the real world, the Greens are running second only behind Reform in national opinion polls, and the party is about to have its best ever local election results.
I don't like Zack. I don't like the Greens.
But when reality intrudes, one is forced to accept it.
That's beginning to smell like a bit more than just a press hatchet job, but a pattern of unserious behaviour. I appreciate that the press ARE indeed out to get him, but as the Golders Green comments demonstrate pretty clearly, there is also a lot less to him than meets the eye.
Under scrutiny Polanski is left wanting. I am sure the same will be true of Farage, but will he ever be put under the microscope?
Starmer is a lucky General. Badenoch not so much.
An interesting thought experiment is how would the Greens be doing if Lucas was now leader. She doesn't have the social media verve of Polanski (he is genuinely superb at that), so I think their current vote share would be lower. But it would also be much more solid, and much more dangerous to Labour by the time another GE comes around.
Caroline Lucas was MP for Brighton 2021 - 2024. The Greens ran the council, sometimes as a minority administration. After experiencing what having the Greens in charge actually mentioned for local services Brighton voters turfed them out in 2023 and gave Labour one of its best results in those elections.
Solid and dangerous to Labour?
Possibly all these Gaza-obsessed Green councillors will do a fine job running councils, a much better one than people who actually cared about environmental issues?
But I wouldn't bet on this.
People are desperate for a decent, moderate, left-wing alternative. The SNP are about to win another stonking plurality (or even majority). I've no doubt Lucas would be in the high teens at least if she could provide something similar in England & Wales.
And I don't think local politics stories like this have any impact at all. The record of Reform in Kent is going to have next to zero bearing on their vote in the mining villages of West Lothian.
"People are desperate for a decent, moderate, left-wing alternative."
People are keen on a decent, moderate right-wing alternative too.
Where oh where are the LDs. It's entirely the maddest thing that they simply are absent.
You could equally ask where are the Conservatives currently - they are being driven back into their heartlands, islands of strength surrounded by oceans of irrelevance.
They are becoming like the Liberal Democrats admittedly with a slightly larger vote (15-20% perhaps).
Indeed, the notion want a "decent, moderate" alternative of either "left" or "right" doesn't really stand up to inspection. Many are angry, desperate and stupid enough to buy whatever snake oil is being peddled around.
As it seems the biggest debate currently is how many people are going to be deported by the next Government, perhaps we generally do get the politicians we deserve.
Yes the Tories are at sea too. I'm no longer a member, but I may rejoin. Badenoch is doing a fairly good job. You know full well that the Tories are more present than the LDs by a big factor.
The gap is about 1000 councillors locally - that may well be cut in half by Friday evening.
Yes, of course, the Conservatives are the Opposition and the credible alternative Government based on seats in the Commons (polling is irrelevant). They are not without support or supporters.
To my surprise, they have put up a full slate of candidates in Newham. I live in what is probably their best prospect. Yes, they have spent money on posters and leaflets but they don't seem to have canvassers. The Hindu business people who support them financially aren't coming out on the doorstep so they will likely end up with nothing.
I'm not a Conservative - I have no clue how much their local organsiations have been reduced by recent events - local council by-elections suggest islands of strength surrounded by vast areas of inactivity.
When Kemi Badenoch has to visit Bromley, you know this is a defensive election.
Oi! I frequently quote them. This is because - as I said at the time - they produce good graphics quickly, like the below. And the minute LukeTryl or YouGov produce choropleths I will do the same. As for their personal account, knock yourself out. The bio is a bit - how can I put this - expansive.
Cloropleths are rubbish for Scotland. I'd give that a C - it doesn't even have a central belt inset map. An A student would use hexbins.
Yes, I like hexbins too. The advantage of keeping the boundaries the same for GEs during the 2010s is that you could reuse them
I use mine for recycling tins and glass. They are reusable for years. After that you throw them in a larger bin, known as a dodecabin.
That's beginning to smell like a bit more than just a press hatchet job, but a pattern of unserious behaviour. I appreciate that the press ARE indeed out to get him, but as the Golders Green comments demonstrate pretty clearly, there is also a lot less to him than meets the eye.
Under scrutiny Polanski is left wanting. I am sure the same will be true of Farage, but will he ever be put under the microscope?
Farage is under constant scrutiny. Just this year we have had microscopic detail about every ghastly deed he did as a schoolboy. Just this week we have had the £5 million gift/donation malarkey. Despite consistent support from bits of the media I only hear about via PB, only about a quarter of the public approve of him. Which is a quarter too many.
As to microscopic critical analysis, try: Ch4, Guardian, Economist, New Statesman, Mirror, FT, ITV, the Scottish media, Michael Crick, Times Radio, LBC (ever heard James O'Brien on the subject? Or Andrew Marr?)
The £12m to Reform and the £5m to Farage hasn't had anything like the media coverage Mrs Starmer's underwear and Starmer's spectacles received. The Guardian raised it and virtually no one, certainly not the BBC, has run with it. Johnson's wallpaper received more coverage (pardon the pun).
Starmer and Boris being Prime Minister whilst receiving their gifts might have something to do with it I suppose.
As to the comparison of Starmer and Farage; my feeling is that people started out with Starmer as PM with the sense that his merit was a boring amount of personal rectitude and common sense with a secret plan to run the country modestly well.
Over trivial freebies rectitude and common sense deserted him, things which go to character and changed our perspective. As did the lack of a plan.
With Farage, in this moral regard he has no reputation to lose, he is plainly a chancer, and the evidence of his schoolfellows alone tend towards showing that he is morally bankrupt in dealing with persons, so stories about £5 million are a less big deal.
I agree. Farage's dodginess is priced in, although I didn't realise how easily he could be bought. The cameo videos are worse than the £5m in my opinion
That's beginning to smell like a bit more than just a press hatchet job, but a pattern of unserious behaviour. I appreciate that the press ARE indeed out to get him, but as the Golders Green comments demonstrate pretty clearly, there is also a lot less to him than meets the eye.
Under scrutiny Polanski is left wanting. I am sure the same will be true of Farage, but will he ever be put under the microscope?
All his demerits are "priced in" (we are told) - ie normal standards are suspended for him.
That's beginning to smell like a bit more than just a press hatchet job, but a pattern of unserious behaviour. I appreciate that the press ARE indeed out to get him, but as the Golders Green comments demonstrate pretty clearly, there is also a lot less to him than meets the eye.
Under scrutiny Polanski is left wanting. I am sure the same will be true of Farage, but will he ever be put under the microscope?
Farage is under constant scrutiny. Just this year we have had microscopic detail about every ghastly deed he did as a schoolboy. Just this week we have had the £5 million gift/donation malarkey. Despite consistent support from bits of the media I only hear about via PB, only about a quarter of the public approve of him. Which is a quarter too many.
As to microscopic critical analysis, try: Ch4, Guardian, Economist, New Statesman, Mirror, FT, ITV, the Scottish media, Michael Crick, Times Radio, LBC (ever heard James O'Brien on the subject? Or Andrew Marr?)
The £12m to Reform and the £5m to Farage hasn't had anything like the media coverage Mrs Starmer's underwear and Starmer's spectacles received. The Guardian raised it and virtually no one, certainly not the BBC, has run with it. Johnson's wallpaper received more coverage (pardon the pun).
Starmer is prime minister, Boris was prime minister. Farage is not
There. Fixed that for you. Next
It didn’t stop the media going after Starmer before he was PM .
Farage gets an easy ride . Can you imagine the furore if Starmer had accepted 5 million pounds ?
Like I said earlier. Polanski is a walking catastrophe, so is his deputy, and anti-Zio Zack will be gone within months
Maybe less
Back in the real world, the Greens are running second only behind Reform in national opinion polls, and the party is about to have its best ever local election results.
I don't like Zack. I don't like the Greens.
But when reality intrudes, one is forced to accept it.
quite amusing watching the righties getting all upset their attacks on Polanski going nowhere. annoying isn't it?
Like I said earlier. Polanski is a walking catastrophe, so is his deputy, and anti-Zio Zack will be gone within months
Maybe less
Back in the real world, the Greens are running second only behind Reform in national opinion polls, and the party is about to have its best ever local election results.
I don't like Zack. I don't like the Greens.
But when reality intrudes, one is forced to accept it.
Come now, folk who wouldn’t vote Green in a month of Sundays regardless of who led them are surely the right folk to listen to when they say Polanski is finished.
That's beginning to smell like a bit more than just a press hatchet job, but a pattern of unserious behaviour. I appreciate that the press ARE indeed out to get him, but as the Golders Green comments demonstrate pretty clearly, there is also a lot less to him than meets the eye.
Under scrutiny Polanski is left wanting. I am sure the same will be true of Farage, but will he ever be put under the microscope?
Starmer is a lucky General. Badenoch not so much.
An interesting thought experiment is how would the Greens be doing if Lucas was now leader. She doesn't have the social media verve of Polanski (he is genuinely superb at that), so I think their current vote share would be lower. But it would also be much more solid, and much more dangerous to Labour by the time another GE comes around.
Caroline Lucas was MP for Brighton 2021 - 2024. The Greens ran the council, sometimes as a minority administration. After experiencing what having the Greens in charge actually mentioned for local services Brighton voters turfed them out in 2023 and gave Labour one of its best results in those elections.
Solid and dangerous to Labour?
Possibly all these Gaza-obsessed Green councillors will do a fine job running councils, a much better one than people who actually cared about environmental issues?
But I wouldn't bet on this.
People are desperate for a decent, moderate, left-wing alternative. The SNP are about to win another stonking plurality (or even majority). I've no doubt Lucas would be in the high teens at least if she could provide something similar in England & Wales.
And I don't think local politics stories like this have any impact at all. The record of Reform in Kent is going to have next to zero bearing on their vote in the mining villages of West Lothian.
"People are desperate for a decent, moderate, left-wing alternative."
People are keen on a decent, moderate right-wing alternative too.
Where oh where are the LDs. It's entirely the maddest thing that they simply are absent.
They’re predicted to make gains in Scotland, London and other parts of England. They’re predicted to be third on total council seats won (above the Tories or Greens). That’s not “absent”.
That's beginning to smell like a bit more than just a press hatchet job, but a pattern of unserious behaviour. I appreciate that the press ARE indeed out to get him, but as the Golders Green comments demonstrate pretty clearly, there is also a lot less to him than meets the eye.
Under scrutiny Polanski is left wanting. I am sure the same will be true of Farage, but will he ever be put under the microscope?
Farage is under constant scrutiny. Just this year we have had microscopic detail about every ghastly deed he did as a schoolboy. Just this week we have had the £5 million gift/donation malarkey. Despite consistent support from bits of the media I only hear about via PB, only about a quarter of the public approve of him. Which is a quarter too many.
As to microscopic critical analysis, try: Ch4, Guardian, Economist, New Statesman, Mirror, FT, ITV, the Scottish media, Michael Crick, Times Radio, LBC (ever heard James O'Brien on the subject? Or Andrew Marr?)
And yet the voters who vote for him don't care that someone has given him £5m in return for favours that aren't known..
We don’t know that yet. Let’s see how the story develops.
That's beginning to smell like a bit more than just a press hatchet job, but a pattern of unserious behaviour. I appreciate that the press ARE indeed out to get him, but as the Golders Green comments demonstrate pretty clearly, there is also a lot less to him than meets the eye.
Under scrutiny Polanski is left wanting. I am sure the same will be true of Farage, but will he ever be put under the microscope?
Farage is under constant scrutiny. Just this year we have had microscopic detail about every ghastly deed he did as a schoolboy. Just this week we have had the £5 million gift/donation malarkey. Despite consistent support from bits of the media I only hear about via PB, only about a quarter of the public approve of him. Which is a quarter too many.
As to microscopic critical analysis, try: Ch4, Guardian, Economist, New Statesman, Mirror, FT, ITV, the Scottish media, Michael Crick, Times Radio, LBC (ever heard James O'Brien on the subject? Or Andrew Marr?)
The £12m to Reform and the £5m to Farage hasn't had anything like the media coverage Mrs Starmer's underwear and Starmer's spectacles received. The Guardian raised it and virtually no one, certainly not the BBC, has run with it. Johnson's wallpaper received more coverage (pardon the pun).
It was not £12m to Reform. It was £12m to Reform in 2025. He has given the majority of all the money (above the declarable threshold) ever given to Reform.
Like I said earlier. Polanski is a walking catastrophe, so is his deputy, and anti-Zio Zack will be gone within months
Maybe less
Back in the real world, the Greens are running second only behind Reform in national opinion polls, and the party is about to have its best ever local election results.
I don't like Zack. I don't like the Greens.
But when reality intrudes, one is forced to accept it.
Come now, folk who wouldn’t vote Green in a month of Sundays regardless of who led them are surely the right folk to listen to when they say Polanski is finished.
There's a sentiment afoot that they should go back to authentic cuddly environmentalism and their rightful 5% of the vote.
It's similar to how many Tories profess to respect proper, working class, election losing Old Labour.
🔵Leads on 13 of 15 attributes 🔵Positive scores on principled (+2), decisive (+2) and competent (+2) 🔵 Weakest on looking like a PM (-17), though still ahead of rivals
So how many net gains do you expect Kemi's Tories to make on Thursday in the locals based on this polling?
It's not a fair comparison because you're measuring her against the greatest Tory election winner this century in Boris Johnson.
Err when these elections were fought in 2022 the Tories made a net loss of nearly 500 seats.
She should be making net gains,.
The brand is the issue, not the leader and she has gained support across the party and increasingly with the public
There are 3 years for her to recover the brand, and in that time Farage and Polanski have a mountain to climb to maintain their own support
Thursday will be judgement day on Starmer not Kemi Badenoch
You keep spinning that.
Kemi seems to trigger you for some reason, but the polling is consistent as is the trend for her which is the first requirement for her to lead a brand recovery
I see you’re playing the man and not the ball.
Maybe because you seem almost obsessively negative about her.
She’s got a great deal to be negative about.
The trend is her friend.
Needs more time. Will the party collapse in panic when Reform easily eclipses them on Thursday, or hold on for the long haul?
Her polling is fascinating, nonetheless
I am trying to think of a similar example. A LOTO whose polling began poorly then declined, but then picked up month after month untilhe/she was top of the pops?
I am sure it has happened, but when and who? Cameron?
Jeremy Corbyn.
Did it? I'd like a citation but I'm happy to be schooled if you are right
My hazy memory is.... actually absent. I can't actually remember what happened during that time
Brexit (2016-2019) is the political equivalent of Covid. A period of time so painful and confused it has been scrubbed from our memory banks. Discuss
UK and EU regulators have totally screwed the car manufacturing business. It’s all going to be either Tesla or China very quickly.
It won’t be Tesla, Tesla don’t want to make cars anymore - he wants to make robots (either taxis or just robots).
They’re doing private sales of the taxis, at $30k for a car that will pick you up from the pub.
The reality is that regulation is not going to be kind to Tesla robotaxis. Regulators demand zero mistakes from machines, in a way they don't from human beings, and the lack of Lidar is going to kill them.
Or someone else...
Indeed: a Tesla robotaxi will (inevitably) kill a child at some point. It may well be that the accident is completely unavoidable, and no amount of LIDAR would have saved said kid. But it will inevitably result in a 'no autonomous taxis without LIDAR backlash'. (As an aside, Tesla also does some really dumb things; they have a setting on autopilot to let the car travel at dangerous speed. Yeah, I get it, it's funny. But it will undoubtedly be a PR nightmare when someone gets killed.)
I think the arrogance of the companies is going to be a problem. Look at Waymo’s reaction to criticism of them parking in cycle lanes.
We (as in my insurance company) deal with them all the time. I have a pretty positve view of Waymo, because they pay their claims in a timely fashion.
(Their claims, by the way, are almost entirely due to them pulling up alongside parked cars, telling the riders they can get out, and not realising that the gap between the door and the parked car is relatively small.)
One thing I don't get about modern cars is they have sensors and alarms on everything, like there's a thing to tell me about cars in by blind spot and a thing that beeps speed limit warnings and a thing that does emergency stops and a thing that warns me about seatbelts, but the door will merrily let you open it straight into a stationary object.
It should sense how far away the thing is and lock the hinges at that point so you can just pull it open and it'll open as far as it's got space for.
That's beginning to smell like a bit more than just a press hatchet job, but a pattern of unserious behaviour. I appreciate that the press ARE indeed out to get him, but as the Golders Green comments demonstrate pretty clearly, there is also a lot less to him than meets the eye.
Under scrutiny Polanski is left wanting. I am sure the same will be true of Farage, but will he ever be put under the microscope?
Farage is under constant scrutiny. Just this year we have had microscopic detail about every ghastly deed he did as a schoolboy. Just this week we have had the £5 million gift/donation malarkey. Despite consistent support from bits of the media I only hear about via PB, only about a quarter of the public approve of him. Which is a quarter too many.
As to microscopic critical analysis, try: Ch4, Guardian, Economist, New Statesman, Mirror, FT, ITV, the Scottish media, Michael Crick, Times Radio, LBC (ever heard James O'Brien on the subject? Or Andrew Marr?)
The £12m to Reform and the £5m to Farage hasn't had anything like the media coverage Mrs Starmer's underwear and Starmer's spectacles received. The Guardian raised it and virtually no one, certainly not the BBC, has run with it. Johnson's wallpaper received more coverage (pardon the pun).
Starmer is prime minister, Boris was prime minister. Farage is not
There. Fixed that for you. Next
It didn’t stop the media going after Starmer before he was PM .
Farage gets an easy ride . Can you imagine the furore if Starmer had accepted 5 million pounds ?
Accepting £5 million is one thing, but he also didn’t declare it, which may turn out to be against Parliament’s rules and illegal.
I've just seen the story that the Bristol explosion was a suicide bomb set off by a man to murder his ex-partner. The degree of premeditation involved in making a bomb to murder your ex is quite staggering. And, of course, there were multiple prior incidents known to the police.
Like I said earlier. Polanski is a walking catastrophe, so is his deputy, and anti-Zio Zack will be gone within months
Maybe less
Back in the real world, the Greens are running second only behind Reform in national opinion polls, and the party is about to have its best ever local election results.
I don't like Zack. I don't like the Greens.
But when reality intrudes, one is forced to accept it.
Er, I'm not discussing reality NOW. What you say is clearly true. I am making a prediction. That thing we do on PB, about the future
Your recent comments have been so bizarrely stupid I fear for your pre-frontal cortex. Has something happened? What year is it? What is your name? Do you rate Ed Davey?
Trying to create a PB survey here: next post will let you vote the other way. Active until the next thread. Explicitly excluded from "most liked post ever". Like this post if you AGREE that: Reform are more racist than the Greens
People who have been in the Green Party five minutes are now attacking Caroline Lucas who was the lone MP and leader for years.
Unsurprising. Surges in support and membership pay no respect to those that came before.
What are they attacking her for? Boring on about the environment instead of Gaza?
The usual.
Criticising the Great Leader. Or even expressing a view that they ought to do something different.
Same as we saw with Boris and Jeremy and are seeing with Nigel.
You can make a case for supporting any of them. But if you support anyone uncritically, you're a fool. Nobody is that good.
My very strong feeling is that the current Green surge (Polanski, hardish left, cult following from the hard core, pro Islamist vibe) is going to dissipate before the next election. Greenery will continue, as Labour did after Jezza, but not in the same mode. Lucas looking like an establishment moderate is a sign.
People who have been in the Green Party five minutes are now attacking Caroline Lucas who was the lone MP and leader for years.
Unsurprising. Surges in support and membership pay no respect to those that came before.
What are they attacking her for? Boring on about the environment instead of Gaza?
The usual.
Criticising the Great Leader. Or even expressing a view that they ought to do something different.
Same as we saw with Boris and Jeremy and are seeing with Nigel.
You can make a case for supporting any of them. But if you support anyone uncritically, you're a fool. Nobody is that good.
My very strong feeling is that the current Green surge (Polanski, hardish left, cult following from the hard core, pro Islamist vibe) is going to dissipate before the next election. Greenery will continue, as Labour did after Jezza, but not in the same mode. Lucas looking like an establishment moderate is a sign.
But if the Polanski song of the Greens, Your Party, Corbyn and Sultana all sink without a trace, where does that hard left vote go? Is it going to coalesce around a Burnham-led Labour Party? Seems unlikely now.
I think Greens are here to stay. They won't go past Labour long term, but there's a big market for them to sell to even if Polanski is no saviour.
Trying to create a PB survey here: previous post lets you vote the other way. Active until the next thread. Explicitly excluded from "most liked post ever". Like this post if you AGREE that: The Greens are more racist than Reform
Guardian reporting on mystery of Farage's partner's source of funds for the Frinton house. Another conveyancer starting to sweat over the thoroughness of their KYC AML checks?
How do you find these relaxed solicitors? I was put through the wringer as LPOA for my parent trying to voluntarily add their house to the land registry and my sibling was asked if they anything in writing from the deceased grandparent who'd given them money towards the property they were selling. My deceased parent had been the senior partner when they merged
Like I said earlier. Polanski is a walking catastrophe, so is his deputy, and anti-Zio Zack will be gone within months
Maybe less
Back in the real world, the Greens are running second only behind Reform in national opinion polls, and the party is about to have its best ever local election results.
I don't like Zack. I don't like the Greens.
But when reality intrudes, one is forced to accept it.
quite amusing watching the righties getting all upset their attacks on Polanski going nowhere. annoying isn't it?
Polanski's polling has fallen off a cliff. Down 12 points in a week
As we know on PB, the party generally - but not always - follows the leader
Like I said earlier. Polanski is a walking catastrophe, so is his deputy, and anti-Zio Zack will be gone within months
Maybe less
Back in the real world, the Greens are running second only behind Reform in national opinion polls, and the party is about to have its best ever local election results.
I don't like Zack. I don't like the Greens.
But when reality intrudes, one is forced to accept it.
quite amusing watching the righties getting all upset their attacks on Polanski going nowhere. annoying isn't it?
As they celebrate Farage being immune to stories of his massive grift ? No, it's not really amusing, any more than Polanski is amusing.
🔵Leads on 13 of 15 attributes 🔵Positive scores on principled (+2), decisive (+2) and competent (+2) 🔵 Weakest on looking like a PM (-17), though still ahead of rivals
So how many net gains do you expect Kemi's Tories to make on Thursday in the locals based on this polling?
It's not a fair comparison because you're measuring her against the greatest Tory election winner this century in Boris Johnson.
Err when these elections were fought in 2022 the Tories made a net loss of nearly 500 seats.
She should be making net gains,.
The brand is the issue, not the leader and she has gained support across the party and increasingly with the public
There are 3 years for her to recover the brand, and in that time Farage and Polanski have a mountain to climb to maintain their own support
Thursday will be judgement day on Starmer not Kemi Badenoch
You keep spinning that.
Kemi seems to trigger you for some reason, but the polling is consistent as is the trend for her which is the first requirement for her to lead a brand recovery
I see you’re playing the man and not the ball.
Maybe because you seem almost obsessively negative about her.
She’s got a great deal to be negative about.
The trend is her friend.
Needs more time. Will the party collapse in panic when Reform easily eclipses them on Thursday, or hold on for the long haul?
Her polling is fascinating, nonetheless
I am trying to think of a similar example. A LOTO whose polling began poorly then declined, but then picked up month after month untilhe/she was top of the pops?
I am sure it has happened, but when and who? Cameron?
Jeremy Corbyn.
Did it? I'd like a citation but I'm happy to be schooled if you are right
My hazy memory is.... actually absent. I can't actually remember what happened during that time
Brexit (2016-2019) is the political equivalent of Covid. A period of time so painful and confused it has been scrubbed from our memory banks. Discuss
Sure.
Is this how you deal with all the mistakes you voted for ?
Like I said earlier. Polanski is a walking catastrophe, so is his deputy, and anti-Zio Zack will be gone within months
Maybe less
Back in the real world, the Greens are running second only behind Reform in national opinion polls, and the party is about to have its best ever local election results.
I don't like Zack. I don't like the Greens.
But when reality intrudes, one is forced to accept it.
Er, I'm not discussing reality NOW. What you say is clearly true. I am making a prediction. That thing we do on PB, about the future
Your recent comments have been so bizarrely stupid I fear for your pre-frontal cortex. Has something happened? What year is it? What is your name? Do you rate Ed Davey?
Like I said earlier. Polanski is a walking catastrophe, so is his deputy, and anti-Zio Zack will be gone within months
Maybe less
Back in the real world, the Greens are running second only behind Reform in national opinion polls, and the party is about to have its best ever local election results.
I don't like Zack. I don't like the Greens.
But when reality intrudes, one is forced to accept it.
Er, I'm not discussing reality NOW. What you say is clearly true. I am making a prediction. That thing we do on PB, about the future
Your recent comments have been so bizarrely stupid I fear for your pre-frontal cortex. Has something happened? What year is it? What is your name? Do you rate Ed Davey?
Guardian reporting on mystery of Farage's partner's source of funds for the Frinton house. Another conveyancer starting to sweat over the thoroughness of their KYC AML checks?
How do you find these relaxed solicitors? I was put through the wringer as LPOA for my parent trying to voluntarily add their house to the land registry and my siblings was asked if they anything on writing from the deceased grandparent who'd given them money towards the property they were selling. My deceased parent had been the senior partner
I have the other side of that - there is a rapidly expanding firm who are going to regret a small contract they’ve just taken on because the threats contained in their misconstrued but carefully written letter don’t really work when the consumer credit act 1974 doesn’t relate to EBT loans from an IOM trust. And the email address to talk to is EBT@…
Sure, the Conservatives will stick take a pasting. But maybe not quite the catastrophic one that's expected.
Well, a lot depends on what you define as "catastrophic".
Would 500 be catastrophic, 1000, 1500? The Conservatives lost 2000 seats in a single night in 1995 - that was pretty bad.
I started this campaign thinking 500 losses and I'm still around that number thought with both Reform and Greens struggling a little, it may not be quite that severe.
The key local rounds for Badenoch (assuming she survives this week) are 2027 and 2028. Though with local Government re-organsiation, fewer seats will be contested, the Conservatives lost just over 1000 seats in 2023 and you'd want to see some big gains from that if the party has any pretensions to be challengers for Government at the next GE.
Dame Shirley Porter obituary Former leader of Westminster city council found to have misused her powers in the ‘homes for votes’ scandal
There was a time in the late 1980s when Shirley Porter was the second most famous and powerful female politician in Britain: “the Iron Lady of the town halls”. Like her heroine, Margaret Thatcher, she was a grocer’s daughter, though the family business, Tesco, was somewhat bigger than the prime minister’s corner shop. Porter’s eventual fall from grace was devastating both for her personal reputation and for Thatcherism’s perceived way of doing things. She was, simply, the most corrupt politician of her time. https://www.theguardian.com/society/2026/may/05/dame-shirley-porter-obituary
Like I said earlier. Polanski is a walking catastrophe, so is his deputy, and anti-Zio Zack will be gone within months
Maybe less
Back in the real world, the Greens are running second only behind Reform in national opinion polls, and the party is about to have its best ever local election results.
I don't like Zack. I don't like the Greens.
But when reality intrudes, one is forced to accept it.
quite amusing watching the righties getting all upset their attacks on Polanski going nowhere. annoying isn't it?
Polanski's polling has fallen off a cliff. Down 12 points in a week
As we know on PB, the party generally - but not always - follows the leader
Not always for sure, eg while your gap-toothed goddess moves from hated to merely despised, her party sill exudes all the appeal of an open sewer.
Sure, the Conservatives will stick take a pasting. But maybe not quite the catastrophic one that's expected.
I mean, maybe. But a couple of weeks ago it looked like the Tories would be about level on seats with Labour in this set of local elections, and now Labour might be receiving a lifeline as Polanski does a late-Corbyn tribute act, so there's a better chance of the Tories being marooned in fifth, even if they also do a bit better than was expected.
I suppose the general point that Reform/Greens both seem to have attracted low turnout voters might help the Tories/Labour, so the swings might be lower across the board.
How many losses do you think Badenoch might keep it down to?
I think falling well behind Reform in Wales and Scotland is potentially more consequential for the Conservative and Unionist Party than the English council elections, though.
Like I said earlier. Polanski is a walking catastrophe, so is his deputy, and anti-Zio Zack will be gone within months
Maybe less
Back in the real world, the Greens are running second only behind Reform in national opinion polls, and the party is about to have its best ever local election results.
I don't like Zack. I don't like the Greens.
But when reality intrudes, one is forced to accept it.
quite amusing watching the righties getting all upset their attacks on Polanski going nowhere. annoying isn't it?
Polanski has been leader for 8 months, or 5 Trusses or 22 Scaramuccis. There is plenty of time for Polanski to hit difficulties. Personal probity issues, his belief in MMT and fiscal unrealism, his cabal like leftist style and his dislike of being interviewed by Trevor Phillips all suggest stuff to come, which won't include general election winning.
Like I said earlier. Polanski is a walking catastrophe, so is his deputy, and anti-Zio Zack will be gone within months
Maybe less
Back in the real world, the Greens are running second only behind Reform in national opinion polls, and the party is about to have its best ever local election results.
I don't like Zack. I don't like the Greens.
But when reality intrudes, one is forced to accept it.
quite amusing watching the righties getting all upset their attacks on Polanski going nowhere. annoying isn't it?
Polanski's polling has fallen off a cliff. Down 12 points in a week
As we know on PB, the party generally - but not always - follows the leader
Not always for sure, eg while your gap-toothed goddess moves from hated to merely despised, her party sill exudes all the appeal of an open sewer.
Still, it must be nice for you to have a party that is both pro Scottish independence AND openly anti-Semitic. Finally, you have a political home
Dame Shirley Porter obituary Former leader of Westminster city council found to have misused her powers in the ‘homes for votes’ scandal
There was a time in the late 1980s when Shirley Porter was the second most famous and powerful female politician in Britain: “the Iron Lady of the town halls”. Like her heroine, Margaret Thatcher, she was a grocer’s daughter, though the family business, Tesco, was somewhat bigger than the prime minister’s corner shop. Porter’s eventual fall from grace was devastating both for her personal reputation and for Thatcherism’s perceived way of doing things. She was, simply, the most corrupt politician of her time. https://www.theguardian.com/society/2026/may/05/dame-shirley-porter-obituary
She was the most appalling crook. The very worst of Thatcherism. I was living in Westminster at the time . She was extremely lucky she wasn't jailed. When she escaped to Israel it was a relief to everyone. Not least Thatcher herself
Sure, the Conservatives will stick take a pasting. But maybe not quite the catastrophic one that's expected.
I mean, maybe. But a couple of weeks ago it looked like the Tories would be about level on seats with Labour in this set of local elections, and now Labour might be receiving a lifeline as Polanski does a late-Corbyn tribute act, so there's a better chance of the Tories being marooned in fifth, even if they also do a bit better than was expected.
I suppose the general point that Reform/Greens both seem to have attracted low turnout voters might help the Tories/Labour, so the swings might be lower across the board.
How many losses do you think Badenoch might keep it down to?
I think falling well behind Reform in Wales and Scotland is potentially more consequential for the Conservative and Unionist Party than the English council elections, though.
Sure, the Conservatives will stick take a pasting. But maybe not quite the catastrophic one that's expected.
It's possible. The only area i have info for -Swindon - suggests where they have numbers they are trying hard. She's not particularly hated, and despite their growth Greens and Reform don't have the local knowledge or contacts. And expectations have been set so low exceeding them may not be unachievable.
But I'd still bet against. My gut just says the core vote is staying home or still not ready to listen again.
Like I said earlier. Polanski is a walking catastrophe, so is his deputy, and anti-Zio Zack will be gone within months
Maybe less
Back in the real world, the Greens are running second only behind Reform in national opinion polls, and the party is about to have its best ever local election results.
I don't like Zack. I don't like the Greens.
But when reality intrudes, one is forced to accept it.
quite amusing watching the righties getting all upset their attacks on Polanski going nowhere. annoying isn't it?
Polanski's polling has fallen off a cliff. Down 12 points in a week
As we know on PB, the party generally - but not always - follows the leader
And the rise, in part, is attributable to him, making it perhaps more probable he could cause a fall.
🔵Leads on 13 of 15 attributes 🔵Positive scores on principled (+2), decisive (+2) and competent (+2) 🔵 Weakest on looking like a PM (-17), though still ahead of rivals
So how many net gains do you expect Kemi's Tories to make on Thursday in the locals based on this polling?
It's not a fair comparison because you're measuring her against the greatest Tory election winner this century in Boris Johnson.
Err when these elections were fought in 2022 the Tories made a net loss of nearly 500 seats.
She should be making net gains,.
The brand is the issue, not the leader and she has gained support across the party and increasingly with the public
There are 3 years for her to recover the brand, and in that time Farage and Polanski have a mountain to climb to maintain their own support
Thursday will be judgement day on Starmer not Kemi Badenoch
You keep spinning that.
Kemi seems to trigger you for some reason, but the polling is consistent as is the trend for her which is the first requirement for her to lead a brand recovery
I see you’re playing the man and not the ball.
Maybe because you seem almost obsessively negative about her.
She’s got a great deal to be negative about.
The trend is her friend.
Needs more time. Will the party collapse in panic when Reform easily eclipses them on Thursday, or hold on for the long haul?
Her polling is fascinating, nonetheless
I am trying to think of a similar example. A LOTO whose polling began poorly then declined, but then picked up month after month untilhe/she was top of the pops?
I am sure it has happened, but when and who? Cameron?
Jeremy Corbyn.
Did it? I'd like a citation but I'm happy to be schooled if you are right
My hazy memory is.... actually absent. I can't actually remember what happened during that time
Brexit (2016-2019) is the political equivalent of Covid. A period of time so painful and confused it has been scrubbed from our memory banks. Discuss
When he became leader his ratings were in the toilet then around the 2017 general election his ratings improved and were okay until the Salisbury poisonings.
Sure, the Conservatives will stick take a pasting. But maybe not quite the catastrophic one that's expected.
It's possible. The only area i have info for -Swindon - suggests where they have numbers they are trying hard. She's not particularly hated, and despite their growth Greens and Reform don't have the local knowledge or contacts. And expectations have been set so low exceeding them may not be unachievable.
But I'd still bet against. My gut just says the core vote is staying home or still not ready to listen again.
If she lost only 300 seats, she’d be doing better than expectations, but she would still have lost 300 seats! It’s hard to spin that as a positive.
Like I said earlier. Polanski is a walking catastrophe, so is his deputy, and anti-Zio Zack will be gone within months
Maybe less
Back in the real world, the Greens are running second only behind Reform in national opinion polls, and the party is about to have its best ever local election results.
I don't like Zack. I don't like the Greens.
But when reality intrudes, one is forced to accept it.
Come now, folk who wouldn’t vote Green in a month of Sundays regardless of who led them are surely the right folk to listen to when they say Polanski is finished.
There's a sentiment afoot that they should go back to authentic cuddly environmentalism and their rightful 5% of the vote.
It's similar to how many Tories profess to respect proper, working class, election losing Old Labour.
There is certainly some wishcasting, though it is the case that sometimes an outside view is needed to identify problems. Plenty of people said Boris and Corbyn would lead to internal trouble and were right.
Like I said earlier. Polanski is a walking catastrophe, so is his deputy, and anti-Zio Zack will be gone within months
Maybe less
Back in the real world, the Greens are running second only behind Reform in national opinion polls, and the party is about to have its best ever local election results.
I don't like Zack. I don't like the Greens.
But when reality intrudes, one is forced to accept it.
quite amusing watching the righties getting all upset their attacks on Polanski going nowhere. annoying isn't it?
Polanski has been leader for 8 months, or 5 Trusses or 22 Scaramuccis. There is plenty of time for Polanski to hit difficulties. Personal probity issues, his belief in MMT and fiscal unrealism, his cabal like leftist style and his dislike of being interviewed by Trevor Phillips all suggest stuff to come, which won't include general election winning.
I keep reading that Polanski has "charisma". Can you, or anyone, point me to a single example? Because, darn my pants, I cannot see any
And I am entirely open to charisma in politicians I despise. Corbyn had a weird old-man-in-a-vest Magic Grandpa charisma. It was wholly malign, but he had it. Boris, Salmond, Blair, to name but three very different British politicians of the last 40 years, also had charisma. Farage has a low watt old style "Tory cad" charisma
Starmer, Davey, Swinney do NOT have charisma. The jury is out on Badenoch, she may be developing late onset charisma
Polanski?? He looks like a Romanian Nazi hamster. He cannot orate, he is clearly thick as organic pig shit. Where is this charisma?
Sure, the Conservatives will stick take a pasting. But maybe not quite the catastrophic one that's expected.
It's possible. The only area i have info for -Swindon - suggests where they have numbers they are trying hard. She's not particularly hated, and despite their growth Greens and Reform don't have the local knowledge or contacts. And expectations have been set so low exceeding them may not be unachievable.
But I'd still bet against. My gut just says the core vote is staying home or still not ready to listen again.
If she lost only 300 seats, she’d be doing better than expectations, but she would still have lost 300 seats! It’s hard to spin that as a positive.
Impossible to spin as a win. Possible, but hard, to spin as moving in the right direction.
It's whether she can stave off a coup, not if she can sell it as positive to the media, that is key.
Sure, the Conservatives will stick take a pasting. But maybe not quite the catastrophic one that's expected.
I mean, maybe. But a couple of weeks ago it looked like the Tories would be about level on seats with Labour in this set of local elections, and now Labour might be receiving a lifeline as Polanski does a late-Corbyn tribute act, so there's a better chance of the Tories being marooned in fifth, even if they also do a bit better than was expected.
I suppose the general point that Reform/Greens both seem to have attracted low turnout voters might help the Tories/Labour, so the swings might be lower across the board.
How many losses do you think Badenoch might keep it down to?
I think falling well behind Reform in Wales and Scotland is potentially more consequential for the Conservative and Unionist Party than the English council elections, though.
I don't know, but I will be voting Conservative.
I am voting Liberal Democrat to keep the Greens out, it's my patriotic duty.
🔵Leads on 13 of 15 attributes 🔵Positive scores on principled (+2), decisive (+2) and competent (+2) 🔵 Weakest on looking like a PM (-17), though still ahead of rivals
So how many net gains do you expect Kemi's Tories to make on Thursday in the locals based on this polling?
It's not a fair comparison because you're measuring her against the greatest Tory election winner this century in Boris Johnson.
Err when these elections were fought in 2022 the Tories made a net loss of nearly 500 seats.
She should be making net gains,.
The brand is the issue, not the leader and she has gained support across the party and increasingly with the public
There are 3 years for her to recover the brand, and in that time Farage and Polanski have a mountain to climb to maintain their own support
Thursday will be judgement day on Starmer not Kemi Badenoch
You keep spinning that.
Kemi seems to trigger you for some reason, but the polling is consistent as is the trend for her which is the first requirement for her to lead a brand recovery
I see you’re playing the man and not the ball.
Maybe because you seem almost obsessively negative about her.
She’s got a great deal to be negative about.
The trend is her friend.
Needs more time. Will the party collapse in panic when Reform easily eclipses them on Thursday, or hold on for the long haul?
Her polling is fascinating, nonetheless
I am trying to think of a similar example. A LOTO whose polling began poorly then declined, but then picked up month after month untilhe/she was top of the pops?
I am sure it has happened, but when and who? Cameron?
Jeremy Corbyn.
Did it? I'd like a citation but I'm happy to be schooled if you are right
My hazy memory is.... actually absent. I can't actually remember what happened during that time
Brexit (2016-2019) is the political equivalent of Covid. A period of time so painful and confused it has been scrubbed from our memory banks. Discuss
When he became leader his ratings were in the toilet then around the 2017 general election his ratings improved and were okay until the Salisbury poisonings.
Like I said earlier. Polanski is a walking catastrophe, so is his deputy, and anti-Zio Zack will be gone within months
Maybe less
Back in the real world, the Greens are running second only behind Reform in national opinion polls, and the party is about to have its best ever local election results.
I don't like Zack. I don't like the Greens.
But when reality intrudes, one is forced to accept it.
quite amusing watching the righties getting all upset their attacks on Polanski going nowhere. annoying isn't it?
Polanski has been leader for 8 months, or 5 Trusses or 22 Scaramuccis. There is plenty of time for Polanski to hit difficulties. Personal probity issues, his belief in MMT and fiscal unrealism, his cabal like leftist style and his dislike of being interviewed by Trevor Phillips all suggest stuff to come, which won't include general election winning.
I keep reading that Polanski has "charisma". Can you, or anyone, point me to a single example? Because, darn my pants, I cannot see any
And I am entirely open to charisma in politicians I despise. Corbyn had a weird old-man-in-a-vest Magic Grandpa charisma. It was wholly malign, but he had it. Boris, Salmond, Blair, to name but three very different British politicians of the last 40 years, also had charisma. Farage has a low watt old style "Tory cad" charisma
Starmer, Davey, Swinney do NOT have charisma. The jury is out on Badenoch, she may be developing late onset charisma
Polanski?? He looks like a Romanian Nazi hamster. He cannot orate, he is clearly thick as organic pig shit. Where is this charisma?
I don't get it either. I haven't a scooby why he is considered to be charismatic. Social media seems to be the key.
Maybe we are old and should just shuffle off gently into the good, pre-Internet night?
Like I said earlier. Polanski is a walking catastrophe, so is his deputy, and anti-Zio Zack will be gone within months
Maybe less
Back in the real world, the Greens are running second only behind Reform in national opinion polls, and the party is about to have its best ever local election results.
I don't like Zack. I don't like the Greens.
But when reality intrudes, one is forced to accept it.
quite amusing watching the righties getting all upset their attacks on Polanski going nowhere. annoying isn't it?
Polanski has been leader for 8 months, or 5 Trusses or 22 Scaramuccis. There is plenty of time for Polanski to hit difficulties. Personal probity issues, his belief in MMT and fiscal unrealism, his cabal like leftist style and his dislike of being interviewed by Trevor Phillips all suggest stuff to come, which won't include general election winning.
I keep reading that Polanski has "charisma". Can you, or anyone, point me to a single example? Because, darn my pants, I cannot see any
And I am entirely open to charisma in politicians I despise. Corbyn had a weird old-man-in-a-vest Magic Grandpa charisma. It was wholly malign, but he had it. Boris, Salmond, Blair, to name but three very different British politicians of the last 40 years, also had charisma. Farage has a low watt old style "Tory cad" charisma
Starmer, Davey, Swinney do NOT have charisma. The jury is out on Badenoch, she may be developing late onset charisma
Polanski?? He looks like a Romanian Nazi hamster. He cannot orate, he is clearly thick as organic pig shit. Where is this charisma?
I don't see it, but people were swept up in Zak mania to the point everyone knew for months he was going to easily win the party leadership. He must have something.
Of course, people don't like to say opponents have charisma, and fiercely reject the idea, see both Boris and Corbyn.
Like I said earlier. Polanski is a walking catastrophe, so is his deputy, and anti-Zio Zack will be gone within months
Maybe less
Back in the real world, the Greens are running second only behind Reform in national opinion polls, and the party is about to have its best ever local election results.
I don't like Zack. I don't like the Greens.
But when reality intrudes, one is forced to accept it.
quite amusing watching the righties getting all upset their attacks on Polanski going nowhere. annoying isn't it?
Polanski has been leader for 8 months, or 5 Trusses or 22 Scaramuccis. There is plenty of time for Polanski to hit difficulties. Personal probity issues, his belief in MMT and fiscal unrealism, his cabal like leftist style and his dislike of being interviewed by Trevor Phillips all suggest stuff to come, which won't include general election winning.
I keep reading that Polanski has "charisma". Can you, or anyone, point me to a single example? Because, darn my pants, I cannot see any
And I am entirely open to charisma in politicians I despise. Corbyn had a weird old-man-in-a-vest Magic Grandpa charisma. It was wholly malign, but he had it. Boris, Salmond, Blair, to name but three very different British politicians of the last 40 years, also had charisma. Farage has a low watt old style "Tory cad" charisma
Starmer, Davey, Swinney do NOT have charisma. The jury is out on Badenoch, she may be developing late onset charisma
Polanski?? He looks like a Romanian Nazi hamster. He cannot orate, he is clearly thick as organic pig shit. Where is this charisma?
Recent developments inside Russia suggest the system is struggling to cope with mounting pressures. These include growing domestic strains, behind-the-scenes manoeuvring among elites, rumours of a coup d’état, a tighter and more reactive grip on control, fears of losing that control, and increasing exposure to Ukrainian strikes and assassinations. All this is unfolding against a worsening external backdrop: a destabilised Middle East and stalemate over Iran, a distracted Trump, and a more militarised (including nuclear-oriented) Europe.
For the first time in years of war, there may be a shift.
🔵Leads on 13 of 15 attributes 🔵Positive scores on principled (+2), decisive (+2) and competent (+2) 🔵 Weakest on looking like a PM (-17), though still ahead of rivals
So how many net gains do you expect Kemi's Tories to make on Thursday in the locals based on this polling?
It's not a fair comparison because you're measuring her against the greatest Tory election winner this century in Boris Johnson.
Err when these elections were fought in 2022 the Tories made a net loss of nearly 500 seats.
She should be making net gains,.
The brand is the issue, not the leader and she has gained support across the party and increasingly with the public
There are 3 years for her to recover the brand, and in that time Farage and Polanski have a mountain to climb to maintain their own support
Thursday will be judgement day on Starmer not Kemi Badenoch
You keep spinning that.
Kemi seems to trigger you for some reason, but the polling is consistent as is the trend for her which is the first requirement for her to lead a brand recovery
I see you’re playing the man and not the ball.
Maybe because you seem almost obsessively negative about her.
She’s got a great deal to be negative about.
The trend is her friend.
Needs more time. Will the party collapse in panic when Reform easily eclipses them on Thursday, or hold on for the long haul?
Her polling is fascinating, nonetheless
I am trying to think of a similar example. A LOTO whose polling began poorly then declined, but then picked up month after month untilhe/she was top of the pops?
I am sure it has happened, but when and who? Cameron?
Jeremy Corbyn.
Did it? I'd like a citation but I'm happy to be schooled if you are right
My hazy memory is.... actually absent. I can't actually remember what happened during that time
Brexit (2016-2019) is the political equivalent of Covid. A period of time so painful and confused it has been scrubbed from our memory banks. Discuss
When he became leader his ratings were in the toilet then around the 2017 general election his ratings improved and were okay until the Salisbury poisonings.
Oi! I frequently quote them. This is because - as I said at the time - they produce good graphics quickly, like the below. And the minute LukeTryl or YouGov produce choropleths I will do the same. As for their personal account, knock yourself out. The bio is a bit - how can I put this - expansive.
I don't see how the LDs get to 12.
I can see how they go from 4 constituency seats to 6. And I can see how they pick up a couple of list seats. But 6 list seats? That's a real stretch.
Especially with Reform coming from no list seats to at least a dozen. All of the mainstream parties, including the Lib Dems, are likely to be adversely affected by that.
Like I said earlier. Polanski is a walking catastrophe, so is his deputy, and anti-Zio Zack will be gone within months
Maybe less
Back in the real world, the Greens are running second only behind Reform in national opinion polls, and the party is about to have its best ever local election results.
I don't like Zack. I don't like the Greens.
But when reality intrudes, one is forced to accept it.
quite amusing watching the righties getting all upset their attacks on Polanski going nowhere. annoying isn't it?
Polanski has been leader for 8 months, or 5 Trusses or 22 Scaramuccis. There is plenty of time for Polanski to hit difficulties. Personal probity issues, his belief in MMT and fiscal unrealism, his cabal like leftist style and his dislike of being interviewed by Trevor Phillips all suggest stuff to come, which won't include general election winning.
I keep reading that Polanski has "charisma". Can you, or anyone, point me to a single example? Because, darn my pants, I cannot see any
And I am entirely open to charisma in politicians I despise. Corbyn had a weird old-man-in-a-vest Magic Grandpa charisma. It was wholly malign, but he had it. Boris, Salmond, Blair, to name but three very different British politicians of the last 40 years, also had charisma. Farage has a low watt old style "Tory cad" charisma
Starmer, Davey, Swinney do NOT have charisma. The jury is out on Badenoch, she may be developing late onset charisma
Polanski?? He looks like a Romanian Nazi hamster. He cannot orate, he is clearly thick as organic pig shit. Where is this charisma?
If we restricted the franchise to women under 50 the Greens might win an enormous landslide. Their poll ratings have definitely improved since he took over.
You and many others claim that Nigel Farage is our most gifted and important politician of recent decades. Isn't it about time we acknowledged what a phenomenon George Galloway has been?
Comments
As for their personal account, knock yourself out. The bio is a bit - how can I put this - expansive.
An interesting thought experiment is how would the Greens be doing if Lucas was now leader. She doesn't have the social media verve of Polanski (he is genuinely superb at that), so I think their current vote share would be lower. But it would also be much more solid, and much more dangerous to Labour by the time another GE comes around.
Solid and dangerous to Labour?
Possibly all these Gaza-obsessed Green councillors will do a fine job running councils, a much better one than people who actually cared about environmental issues?
But I wouldn't bet on this.
And I don't think local politics stories like this have any impact at all. The record of Reform in Kent is going to have next to zero bearing on their vote in the mining villages of West Lothian.
People are keen on a decent, moderate right-wing alternative too.
Where oh where are the LDs. It's entirely the maddest thing that they simply are absent.
As to microscopic critical analysis, try: Ch4, Guardian, Economist, New Statesman, Mirror, FT, ITV, the Scottish media, Michael Crick, Times Radio, LBC (ever heard James O'Brien on the subject? Or Andrew Marr?)
Will Polanski's party be different? I can see it getting lots of new votes. It's what happens then that will tell us if it really is something different, worthwhile and lasting.
Of course it may last but also be malign. See also Reform.
Sam Dumitriu
@Sam_Dumitriu
·
54m
I feel bad for the women who believed they were getting a hypnotic breast enlargement from a qualified and regulated professional.
https://x.com/Sam_Dumitriu/status/2051714223818809420
They are becoming like the Liberal Democrats admittedly with a slightly larger vote (15-20% perhaps).
Indeed, the notion want a "decent, moderate" alternative of either "left" or "right" doesn't really stand up to inspection. Many are angry, desperate and stupid enough to buy whatever snake oil is being peddled around.
As it seems the biggest debate currently is how many people are going to be deported by the next Government, perhaps we generally do get the politicians we deserve.
Such offerings as Burnham has made, for example, perform a conjuring trick to borrow further our way out of trouble.
Maybe less
I can see how they go from 4 constituency seats to 6. And I can see how they pick up a couple of list seats. But 6 list seats? That's a real stretch.
Over trivial freebies rectitude and common sense deserted him, things which go to character and changed our perspective. As did the lack of a plan.
With Farage, in this moral regard he has no reputation to lose, he is plainly a chancer, and the evidence of his schoolfellows alone tend towards showing that he is morally bankrupt in dealing with persons, so stories about £5 million are a less big deal.
I am trying to think of a similar example. A LOTO whose polling began poorly then declined, but then picked up month after month untilhe/she was top of the pops?
I am sure it has happened, but when and who? Cameron?
But on Tuesday Pornhub's owners said Apple users who had confirmed their age with the company's most up-to-date version of iOS, its mobile operating system, would be allowed back onto the site.
(And ahead of Labour too.)
There. Fixed that for you. Next
Voters seem keen to stick two fingers up at Labour and the Tories and whilst the Greens are polling well I don’t see Polanski going .
I don't like Zack. I don't like the Greens.
But when reality intrudes, one is forced to accept it.
Yes, of course, the Conservatives are the Opposition and the credible alternative Government based on seats in the Commons (polling is irrelevant). They are not without support or supporters.
To my surprise, they have put up a full slate of candidates in Newham. I live in what is probably their best prospect. Yes, they have spent money on posters and leaflets but they don't seem to have canvassers. The Hindu business people who support them financially aren't coming out on the doorstep so they will likely end up with nothing.
I'm not a Conservative - I have no clue how much their local organsiations have been reduced by recent events - local council by-elections suggest islands of strength surrounded by vast areas of inactivity.
When Kemi Badenoch has to visit Bromley, you know this is a defensive election.
Nice work if you can get it.
Farage gets an easy ride . Can you imagine the furore if Starmer had accepted 5 million pounds ?
And fine by me (if it comes to pass). My 2 big betting positions are - Starmer goes in 27 or 28, Streeting is Next PM.
I've come to quite like Ed Davey.
Now, is he a serious guy, a man of gravitas, with solutions to the nations problems?
Nope.
But he seems to be a decent human being. A quality that is sadly lacking in so many politicians these days.
It's similar to how many Tories profess to respect proper, working class, election losing Old Labour.
My hazy memory is.... actually absent. I can't actually remember what happened during that time
Brexit (2016-2019) is the political equivalent of Covid. A period of time so painful and confused it has been scrubbed from our memory banks. Discuss
They are loudmouths who'd be even worse than the mainstream parties, and more divisive and destructive.
What we need is better leadership and solutions.
It should sense how far away the thing is and lock the hinges at that point so you can just pull it open and it'll open as far as it's got space for.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/may/05/man-and-ex-partner-killed-in-bristol-blast-after-he-forced-entry-into-house
Your recent comments have been so bizarrely stupid I fear for your pre-frontal cortex. Has something happened? What year is it? What is your name? Do you rate Ed Davey?
Reform are more racist than the Greens
The Greens are more racist than Reform
Another conveyancer starting to sweat over the thoroughness of their KYC AML checks?
How do you find these relaxed solicitors? I was put through the wringer as LPOA for my parent trying to voluntarily add their house to the land registry and my sibling was asked if they anything in writing from the deceased grandparent who'd given them money towards the property they were selling.
My deceased parent had been the senior partner when they merged
As we know on PB, the party generally - but not always - follows the leader
No, it's not really amusing, any more than Polanski is amusing.
Could Kemi outperform expectations on Thursday?
Sure, the Conservatives will stick take a pasting. But maybe not quite the catastrophic one that's expected.
Is this how you deal with all the mistakes you voted for ?
Would 500 be catastrophic, 1000, 1500? The Conservatives lost 2000 seats in a single night in 1995 - that was pretty bad.
I started this campaign thinking 500 losses and I'm still around that number thought with both Reform and Greens struggling a little, it may not be quite that severe.
The key local rounds for Badenoch (assuming she survives this week) are 2027 and 2028. Though with local Government re-organsiation, fewer seats will be contested, the Conservatives lost just over 1000 seats in 2023 and you'd want to see some big gains from that if the party has any pretensions to be challengers for Government at the next GE.
Former leader of Westminster city council found to have misused her powers in the ‘homes for votes’ scandal
There was a time in the late 1980s when Shirley Porter was the second most famous and powerful female politician in Britain: “the Iron Lady of the town halls”. Like her heroine, Margaret Thatcher, she was a grocer’s daughter, though the family business, Tesco, was somewhat bigger than the prime minister’s corner shop. Porter’s eventual fall from grace was devastating both for her personal reputation and for Thatcherism’s perceived way of doing things. She was, simply, the most corrupt politician of her time.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2026/may/05/dame-shirley-porter-obituary
I suppose the general point that Reform/Greens both seem to have attracted low turnout voters might help the Tories/Labour, so the swings might be lower across the board.
How many losses do you think Badenoch might keep it down to?
I think falling well behind Reform in Wales and Scotland is potentially more consequential for the Conservative and Unionist Party than the English council elections, though.
But I'd still bet against. My gut just says the core vote is staying home or still not ready to listen again.
It can take awhile though.
Labour in the polls shortly after the election.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/da/UK_opinion_polls_2017-2019.svg/3840px-UK_opinion_polls_2017-2019.svg.png
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cm2p99rxr5po
And I am entirely open to charisma in politicians I despise. Corbyn had a weird old-man-in-a-vest Magic Grandpa charisma. It was wholly malign, but he had it. Boris, Salmond, Blair, to name but three very different British politicians of the last 40 years, also had charisma. Farage has a low watt old style "Tory cad" charisma
Starmer, Davey, Swinney do NOT have charisma. The jury is out on Badenoch, she may be developing late onset charisma
Polanski?? He looks like a Romanian Nazi hamster. He cannot orate, he is clearly thick as organic pig shit. Where is this charisma?
It's whether she can stave off a coup, not if she can sell it as positive to the media, that is key.
I did consider a Tory vote but this is a safe Tory area anyway.
Maybe we are old and should just shuffle off gently into the good, pre-Internet night?
Of course, people don't like to say opponents have charisma, and fiercely reject the idea, see both Boris and Corbyn.
And don't get started on Trump!
Chapeau.
Stuff that has damaged her recently is not so much backing intervening in Iran but her her reverse ferret denying she ever did.
But under FPTP it is entirely possible she could finish third in polls and ends up as the largest party.
You and many others claim that Nigel Farage is our most gifted and important politician of recent decades. Isn't it about time we acknowledged what a phenomenon George Galloway has been?