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More spin from Team Burnham? – politicalbetting.com

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,547
    algarkirk said:

    Burnham's problem is he needs to pass through 7 gates to become PM

    1) He needs a seat to become available
    2) He needs the byelection to be scheduled for as soon as possible
    3) He needs the NEC to overturn their ban on him standing
    4) He needs to be selected for the seat
    5) He needs to win the byelection
    6) He needs any Labour leadership contest to happen after he is back in parliament
    7) He needs to win the leadership contest

    The hardest ones are 2,3,6 as they are dependent on what his political opponents do. It's not in the interests of the Starmer faction to allow him to stand and it's not in the interests of other contenders like Streeting for a contest to be delayed.

    5 looks tricky to me. In any seat he faces a cross electorate, the tendency for elections to cluster around just two candidates, the resultant tactical voting and the English sense of duty towards being told what to do by their betters.
    Given that we live in post truth politics, where promising spending without taxes is merely standard, what’s the problem?

    Being 10 steps away from being PM is just Bad Facts (TM). Feelings are more important.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 13,466
    Troll the libs day again I see. That’s always made for good governance.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,789

    Taz said:

    FF43 said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    MelonB said:

    FPT

    On the Reform camps to concentrate migrants for deportation.

    The location methodology brings to mind a quote.

    “Own the Libtards”

    The location is half of the reason for them - to “give Them a taste of their own medicine”.

    You'd be hard pressed to find a spot to build one of these concentration camps in my own liberal minded inner London constituency but Reform would be more than welcome to give it a go if they fancy it. Good luck to them getting anyone in or out though.
    Things have so developed in the last year and a half that the fact Reform is promising to build concentration camps is now marginally less toxic than the fact Reform is doing things like Donald Trump.
    I don’t approve of this policy at all but calling them concentration camps is not only absurd it also diminishes the reality of actual concentration camps and those who lost their lives in them.

    What they’re proposing are prisons, camps that the inhabitants can’t leave (until they’re deported).
    Internment camps if you like

    I think using the term concentration camp is absurd

    I doubt gas chambers will be involved
    We call Auschwitz etc "concentration camps" because that's what the Nazis called them - Konzentrationslager. They could have called them "death camps", which is what they were. Blame them if you prefer your concentration camps without gas chambers.
    Hitler was an evil, evil, idiot.
    He was anti-smoking though. Allegedly, one of the reasons it took so long for the 'Rest of the West' to come down firmly against the habit.

    Edit: And a teetotaller, although that's not as desirable as characteristic!
    What is it with authoritarians and the demon drink? Trump also, it is said, refuses an alcoholic tipple..

    On the other hand, Hegseth and Patel not so much.
    Hitler was also very keen on trains and town planning.
    I am not sure that and his love of dogs compensates for the genocide and the armed expansionism.
    There’s a hilarious story about the animal welfare concerns of the Nazis & prosecuting the Commandant of Auschwitz for sadism. By the Nazis.

    You just need the right sense of humour.
    "Oooh, that's a bingo! Is that the way you say it? "That's a bingo?""
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,883
    DougSeal said:

    Troll the libs day again I see. That’s always made for good governance.

    https://x.com/ZiaYusufUK/status/2051310741488083164

    I must say I am *shocked* at how many of the highly ‘virtuous and kind’ left wing media and establishment politicians have revealed they view living near asylum seekers is a “punishment”.

    Whoever would have thought!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,596
    No snooker till 7 now.
    Fortunately I have Chelsea to laugh at.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 13,466
    Burnham at this point seems absolutely ridiculous
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,789

    Scott_xP said:

    After Zelenskey "offered" to add some drones to the Moscow military parade, comes this...

    @robertscotthorton.bsky.social‬

    In the last week, Moscow has been flooded with rumors that Putin is about to be assassinated or ousted somehow. Nothing more than rumors. But still, Putin is spooked.

    https://bsky.app/profile/robertscotthorton.bsky.social/post/3mkzvob4pnc2j

    One surely doesn't advertise that a Head of State is 'about to be assassinated!"

    One just goes ahead and does it!
    If the FSB is doing its job, they should hear about it first.
    Unless they're saying they've caught the potential assassin and they'e trying to show how good they are.
    I think the rumours are inevitable. Putin does seem to be keeping clear of public appearances right now but the big parade is an unavoidable public occasion. People are bound to speculate. Perhaps he could cancel the event but it's so tied up with his own personal brand. If the Russian state is busy keeping VVP rather than their oil refineries safe I'm sure the Ukrainians will be happy.

    This is a very striking poll in the US.

    https://x.com/FrankLuntz/status/2049969268696232341

    55% think their financial situation is getting worse.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,671
    .

    DougSeal said:

    Troll the libs day again I see. That’s always made for good governance.

    https://x.com/ZiaYusufUK/status/2051310741488083164

    I must say I am *shocked* at how many of the highly ‘virtuous and kind’ left wing media and establishment politicians have revealed they view living near asylum seekers is a “punishment”.

    Whoever would have thought!
    The would be authoritarian idiot can't tell the difference between "living next to asylum seekers" and having Britain ICE on their doorstep.

    Poor trolling. Try harder.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,159
    dixiedean said:

    No snooker till 7 now.
    Fortunately I have Chelsea to laugh at.

    Unless Chelsea come back that must save Forest
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,181
    dixiedean said:

    No snooker till 7 now.
    Fortunately I have Chelsea to laugh at.

    Chelsea

    5 and a half games without a goal is incredible
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,596
    Taz said:

    dixiedean said:

    No snooker till 7 now.
    Fortunately I have Chelsea to laugh at.

    Unless Chelsea come back that must save Forest
    Yep. It's West Ham or Spurs down.
    Pity it can't be both.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,671
    'I was trying to save a life,' says man who intervened in Golders Green attack
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1529vgdvlgo
  • eekeek Posts: 33,922
    dixiedean said:

    Taz said:

    dixiedean said:

    No snooker till 7 now.
    Fortunately I have Chelsea to laugh at.

    Unless Chelsea come back that must save Forest
    Yep. It's West Ham or Spurs down.
    Pity it can't be both.
    Always next season...
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,792

    DougSeal said:

    Troll the libs day again I see. That’s always made for good governance.

    https://x.com/ZiaYusufUK/status/2051310741488083164

    I must say I am *shocked* at how many of the highly ‘virtuous and kind’ left wing media and establishment politicians have revealed they view living near asylum seekers is a “punishment”.

    Whoever would have thought!
    Sounds like he over-thought it and is now trying to create the narrative he assumed he'd get but didn't. I suspect this stuff will be quietly dropped.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,357
    Scott_xP said:

    After Zelenskey "offered" to add some drones to the Moscow military parade, comes this...

    @robertscotthorton.bsky.social‬

    In the last week, Moscow has been flooded with rumors that Putin is about to be assassinated or ousted somehow. Nothing more than rumors. But still, Putin is spooked.

    https://bsky.app/profile/robertscotthorton.bsky.social/post/3mkzvob4pnc2j

    Maybe. Otoh Putin's imminent demise has been rumoured ever since he would sit in isolation at one end of those extremely long tables that apparently fill the Kremlin. One day they'll be right. That Putin is worried, yes, he probably is; even paranoid perhaps.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 9,134
    edited May 4
    algarkirk said:

    Burnham's problem is he needs to pass through 7 gates to become PM

    1) He needs a seat to become available
    2) He needs the byelection to be scheduled for as soon as possible
    3) He needs the NEC to overturn their ban on him standing
    4) He needs to be selected for the seat
    5) He needs to win the byelection
    6) He needs any Labour leadership contest to happen after he is back in parliament
    7) He needs to win the leadership contest

    The hardest ones are 2,3,6 as they are dependent on what his political opponents do. It's not in the interests of the Starmer faction to allow him to stand and it's not in the interests of other contenders like Streeting for a contest to be delayed.

    5 looks tricky to me. In any seat he faces a cross electorate, the tendency for elections to cluster around just two candidates, the resultant tactical voting and the English sense of duty towards being told what to do by their betters.
    I suspect Burnham would be better playing a longer game. Yes, absolutely look to get back into parliament, maybe even make a deal with whoever is Labour leader in the next 12 months to avoid the NEC blocking it, and prepare the ground for being the natural successor at that point. I think any hasty attempt to prepare the ground for an immediate replacement of Starmer is doomed to fail for him, and will end up damaging his brand.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 13,466

    DougSeal said:

    Troll the libs day again I see. That’s always made for good governance.

    https://x.com/ZiaYusufUK/status/2051310741488083164

    I must say I am *shocked* at how many of the highly ‘virtuous and kind’ left wing media and establishment politicians have revealed they view living near asylum seekers is a “punishment”.

    Whoever would have thought!
    Sounds like he over-thought it and is now trying to create the narrative he assumed he'd get but didn't. I suspect this stuff will be quietly dropped.
    It’s not got the traction hoped for by the usual suspects on here to be sure.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,357
    dixiedean said:

    No snooker till 7 now.
    Fortunately I have Chelsea to laugh at.

    Occasionally I wonder how my life would have turned out had I not spent my A-level revision time watching the World Snooker championships.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,789
    dixiedean said:

    Taz said:

    dixiedean said:

    No snooker till 7 now.
    Fortunately I have Chelsea to laugh at.

    Unless Chelsea come back that must save Forest
    Yep. It's West Ham or Spurs down.
    Pity it can't be both.
    Harsh on Hammers fans like yours truly!
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,134
    The thing is, maybe Reform’s current approach can be enough to win if everyone else is split.

    But how is their current positioning winning over anyone else who wasn’t already on their team?

    It’s all a bit Corbyn 2019 where they just kept doubling down on things that people who were already well in their camp liked but at the extent of any other voters.

    All of this seems a touch illusory anyway as like I’ve said, Keir Starmer won’t be leading Labour at the next election.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,596

    dixiedean said:

    Taz said:

    dixiedean said:

    No snooker till 7 now.
    Fortunately I have Chelsea to laugh at.

    Unless Chelsea come back that must save Forest
    Yep. It's West Ham or Spurs down.
    Pity it can't be both.
    Harsh on Hammers fans like yours truly!
    Not really.
    You were gifted a huge, modern stadium by the taxpayer.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,242
    DougSeal said:

    Troll the libs day again I see. That’s always made for good governance.

    Indeed. See also "rubbing the Right's face in diversity".
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,547
    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    Troll the libs day again I see. That’s always made for good governance.

    https://x.com/ZiaYusufUK/status/2051310741488083164

    I must say I am *shocked* at how many of the highly ‘virtuous and kind’ left wing media and establishment politicians have revealed they view living near asylum seekers is a “punishment”.

    Whoever would have thought!
    Sounds like he over-thought it and is now trying to create the narrative he assumed he'd get but didn't. I suspect this stuff will be quietly dropped.
    It’s not got the traction hoped for by the usual suspects on here to be sure.
    Restore seized the moment to pretend to be less nutty than Reform.

    Is Reform worried about their right flank?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,357
    Two people have been arrested on suspicion of arson with intent to endanger life after a memorial wall in Golders Green, north London, was damaged on 27 April.

    The Metropolitan Police said a 46-year-old man and a 38-year-old woman were arrested on Monday morning... in Romford

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9v3kvjxr4mo
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,357
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Taz said:

    dixiedean said:

    No snooker till 7 now.
    Fortunately I have Chelsea to laugh at.

    Unless Chelsea come back that must save Forest
    Yep. It's West Ham or Spurs down.
    Pity it can't be both.
    Harsh on Hammers fans like yours truly!
    Not really.
    You were gifted a huge, modern stadium by the taxpayer.
    Albeit unsuited for football. They should have redeveloped the Boleyn ground.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 22,874

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    Troll the libs day again I see. That’s always made for good governance.

    https://x.com/ZiaYusufUK/status/2051310741488083164

    I must say I am *shocked* at how many of the highly ‘virtuous and kind’ left wing media and establishment politicians have revealed they view living near asylum seekers is a “punishment”.

    Whoever would have thought!
    Sounds like he over-thought it and is now trying to create the narrative he assumed he'd get but didn't. I suspect this stuff will be quietly dropped.
    It’s not got the traction hoped for by the usual suspects on here to be sure.
    Restore seized the moment to pretend to be less nutty than Reform.

    Is Reform worried about their right flank?
    Differently nutty, anyway.

    But yes- Rupert Spode is right (if revolting); if you are really serious about deporting huge numbers of people at minimal cost, you don't put the camps where you concentrate people before deporting them in the sort of city-centre constituencies and council areas likely to vote Green.

    Poor Zia. Someday he may become a real politician.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,689
    Iranian scumbags.

    https://x.com/aviationbrk/status/2051323031562199188

    UAE Ministry of Defence confirms Iran fired 4 loitering munitions, three intercepted over territorial waters. One fell into the sea. No impacts on land.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 17,430

    algarkirk said:

    Burnham's problem is he needs to pass through 7 gates to become PM

    1) He needs a seat to become available
    2) He needs the byelection to be scheduled for as soon as possible
    3) He needs the NEC to overturn their ban on him standing
    4) He needs to be selected for the seat
    5) He needs to win the byelection
    6) He needs any Labour leadership contest to happen after he is back in parliament
    7) He needs to win the leadership contest

    The hardest ones are 2,3,6 as they are dependent on what his political opponents do. It's not in the interests of the Starmer faction to allow him to stand and it's not in the interests of other contenders like Streeting for a contest to be delayed.

    5 looks tricky to me. In any seat he faces a cross electorate, the tendency for elections to cluster around just two candidates, the resultant tactical voting and the English sense of duty towards being told what to do by their betters.
    I suspect Burnham would be better playing a longer game. Yes, absolutely look to get back into parliament, maybe even make a deal with whoever is Labour leader in the next 12 months to avoid the NEC blocking it, and prepare the ground for being the natural successor at that point. I think any hasty attempt to prepare the ground for an immediate replacement of Starmer is doomed to fail for him, and will end up damaging his brand.
    Yes. At the moment he has against him significant powers. That is all ('both' may be a better word) the people who don't want a new leader; all those candidates and their entourage who do want to be the new leader and whose odds are damaged by allowing Burnham's entry in the Labour Leader Amateur Jockeys Handicap; everyone who doesn't want Burnham anyway and supports 'anyone but Burnham'. the final power he faces is the UK voter in any seat you care to name and their instinct not to be ordered around by their superiors.

    It's not complicated. Wanting to be PM is totally legitimate, but the rules are clear: When the chance arises you become an MP and you don't wait around during the long years only to appear at the cup final waving your divine right to the job.

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,357
    Royal Navy left with five frigates after HMS Iron Duke quietly withdrawn
    Warship taken out of service, despite a £103m refit designed to extend its lifespan to 2028
    ...

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/05/04/royal-navy-five-frigates-hms-iron-duke-withdrawn/ (£££)
  • Leon_VotedForStarmerLeon_VotedForStarmer Posts: 69,000
    Trollmaster General Nigel Farage's "Gulags for Greens" tweet now has 1 million views after 2 hours

    Pretty much job done?
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 5,542
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Taz said:

    dixiedean said:

    No snooker till 7 now.
    Fortunately I have Chelsea to laugh at.

    Unless Chelsea come back that must save Forest
    Yep. It's West Ham or Spurs down.
    Pity it can't be both.
    Harsh on Hammers fans like yours truly!
    Not really.
    You were gifted a huge, modern stadium by the taxpayer.
    I thought they were renting it
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,689

    Scott_xP said:

    After Zelenskey "offered" to add some drones to the Moscow military parade, comes this...

    @robertscotthorton.bsky.social‬

    In the last week, Moscow has been flooded with rumors that Putin is about to be assassinated or ousted somehow. Nothing more than rumors. But still, Putin is spooked.

    https://bsky.app/profile/robertscotthorton.bsky.social/post/3mkzvob4pnc2j

    One surely doesn't advertise that a Head of State is 'about to be assassinated!"

    One just goes ahead and does it!
    If the FSB is doing its job, they should hear about it first.
    Unless they're saying they've caught the potential assassin and they'e trying to show how good they are.
    I think the rumours are inevitable. Putin does seem to be keeping clear of public appearances right now but the big parade is an unavoidable public occasion. People are bound to speculate. Perhaps he could cancel the event but it's so tied up with his own personal brand. If the Russian state is busy keeping VVP rather than their oil refineries safe I'm sure the Ukrainians will be happy.

    This is a very striking poll in the US.

    https://x.com/FrankLuntz/status/2049969268696232341

    55% think their financial situation is getting worse.
    Meanwhile, there’s said to be 200 Ukranian drones heading for Moscow again tonight.

    https://x.com/wartranslated/status/2051320491118330045

    Moscow might be out of air defences before their parade even starts.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,596
    edited May 4

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Taz said:

    dixiedean said:

    No snooker till 7 now.
    Fortunately I have Chelsea to laugh at.

    Unless Chelsea come back that must save Forest
    Yep. It's West Ham or Spurs down.
    Pity it can't be both.
    Harsh on Hammers fans like yours truly!
    Not really.
    You were gifted a huge, modern stadium by the taxpayer.
    I thought they were renting it
    They pay £4m a year which doesn't even cover operating costs.
    If they are relegated that will be halved.
    So they are paying less out than a team which owns its own stadium does.
  • eekeek Posts: 33,922
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    After Zelenskey "offered" to add some drones to the Moscow military parade, comes this...

    @robertscotthorton.bsky.social‬

    In the last week, Moscow has been flooded with rumors that Putin is about to be assassinated or ousted somehow. Nothing more than rumors. But still, Putin is spooked.

    https://bsky.app/profile/robertscotthorton.bsky.social/post/3mkzvob4pnc2j

    One surely doesn't advertise that a Head of State is 'about to be assassinated!"

    One just goes ahead and does it!
    If the FSB is doing its job, they should hear about it first.
    Unless they're saying they've caught the potential assassin and they'e trying to show how good they are.
    I think the rumours are inevitable. Putin does seem to be keeping clear of public appearances right now but the big parade is an unavoidable public occasion. People are bound to speculate. Perhaps he could cancel the event but it's so tied up with his own personal brand. If the Russian state is busy keeping VVP rather than their oil refineries safe I'm sure the Ukrainians will be happy.

    This is a very striking poll in the US.

    https://x.com/FrankLuntz/status/2049969268696232341

    55% think their financial situation is getting worse.
    Meanwhile, there’s said to be 200 Ukranian drones heading for Moscow again tonight.

    https://x.com/wartranslated/status/2051320491118330045

    Moscow might be out of air defences before their parade even starts.
    Given how gamified Ukraine has made this war, imagine the points and prizes available for taking the big boss out early on his home turf in public view..
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,689
    Sounds like they might be expecting a coup…

    https://x.com/united24media/status/2051215846370914352

    According to CNN, the Kremlin has restricted Vladimir Putin’s movements to fortified bunkers and intensified security for top military commanders following reports that the former defense minister maintains enough influence to lead an elite-driven assassination or power grab.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 5,542
    carnforth said:

    DougSeal said:

    Troll the libs day again I see. That’s always made for good governance.

    Indeed. See also "rubbing the Right's face in diversity".
    quite right too.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,789
    edited May 4
    Leon said:

    Trollmaster General Nigel Farage's "Gulags for Greens" tweet now has 1 million views after 2 hours

    Pretty much job done?

    Polling that suggests if we were to limit the franchise to women under 50 (your target audience?) the Greens would win 486 seats.

    https://x.com/Mr_Andrew_Fox/status/2051245576977588607
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 25,464

    Two people have been arrested on suspicion of arson with intent to endanger life after a memorial wall in Golders Green, north London, was damaged on 27 April.

    The Metropolitan Police said a 46-year-old man and a 38-year-old woman were arrested on Monday morning... in Romford

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9v3kvjxr4mo

    Green Party members?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 25,464

    dixiedean said:

    Taz said:

    dixiedean said:

    No snooker till 7 now.
    Fortunately I have Chelsea to laugh at.

    Unless Chelsea come back that must save Forest
    Yep. It's West Ham or Spurs down.
    Pity it can't be both.
    Harsh on Hammers fans like yours truly!
    The Inter City Firm aren't actually rail enthusiasts.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,689

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    After Zelenskey "offered" to add some drones to the Moscow military parade, comes this...

    @robertscotthorton.bsky.social‬

    In the last week, Moscow has been flooded with rumors that Putin is about to be assassinated or ousted somehow. Nothing more than rumors. But still, Putin is spooked.

    https://bsky.app/profile/robertscotthorton.bsky.social/post/3mkzvob4pnc2j

    One surely doesn't advertise that a Head of State is 'about to be assassinated!"

    One just goes ahead and does it!
    If the FSB is doing its job, they should hear about it first.
    Unless they're saying they've caught the potential assassin and they'e trying to show how good they are.
    I think the rumours are inevitable. Putin does seem to be keeping clear of public appearances right now but the big parade is an unavoidable public occasion. People are bound to speculate. Perhaps he could cancel the event but it's so tied up with his own personal brand. If the Russian state is busy keeping VVP rather than their oil refineries safe I'm sure the Ukrainians will be happy.

    This is a very striking poll in the US.

    https://x.com/FrankLuntz/status/2049969268696232341

    55% think their financial situation is getting worse.
    Meanwhile, there’s said to be 200 Ukranian drones heading for Moscow again tonight.

    https://x.com/wartranslated/status/2051320491118330045

    Moscow might be out of air defences before their parade even starts.
    If Moscow is struggling to put on a good show, it’s nice of the Ukrainians to supply some free fireworks.
    It would be so f******g funny if the Ukranians landed a drone on Red Square on 9th, or even if they flew one by…
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,159
    Talking of West Ham the chairman is having some issue
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,689
    LOL https://x.com/bbcstever/status/2051335092774060391

    Just got this text from my Moscow mobile operator: “During preparations for and the holding of holiday events from 5-9 May temporary restrictions to mobile internet and text messaging are possible in Moscow and Moscow region. This may cause difficulties with cashless payments, use of ATMs and GPS services.”
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,159
    Taz said:

    Talking of West Ham the chairman is having some issue

    Issues !!!! FFS
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,689
    Polymarket definitely isn’t rigged - but 0.1% of the accounts, about 1,600 in total, take 67% of the profits.

    https://x.com/charliebilello/status/2051303993515577730
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 43,521
    @chadbourn.bsky.social‬
    · 3h
    Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Iran: "We have absolute control of the Strait."

    @chadbourn.bsky.social‬
    · 46s
    Iran has targeted commercial and US military vessels with cruise missiles, Reuters reports.

    @bretdevereaux.bsky.social‬
    · 1m
    So a tanker damaged and now a 'demonstration' strike (it doesn't seem like they hit very hard) against UAE oil facilities.

    I wonder who Iran's intended audience is: leverage in negotiations or an effort to demonstrate to markets that Iran owns the strait and they should price accordingly.

    Either way, further evidence that the Iranian regime thinks it is winning and is trying to press its advantage, rather than seeking a swift deescalation.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,490
    edited May 4
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    After Zelenskey "offered" to add some drones to the Moscow military parade, comes this...

    @robertscotthorton.bsky.social‬

    In the last week, Moscow has been flooded with rumors that Putin is about to be assassinated or ousted somehow. Nothing more than rumors. But still, Putin is spooked.

    https://bsky.app/profile/robertscotthorton.bsky.social/post/3mkzvob4pnc2j

    One surely doesn't advertise that a Head of State is 'about to be assassinated!"

    One just goes ahead and does it!
    If the FSB is doing its job, they should hear about it first.
    Unless they're saying they've caught the potential assassin and they'e trying to show how good they are.
    I think the rumours are inevitable. Putin does seem to be keeping clear of public appearances right now but the big parade is an unavoidable public occasion. People are bound to speculate. Perhaps he could cancel the event but it's so tied up with his own personal brand. If the Russian state is busy keeping VVP rather than their oil refineries safe I'm sure the Ukrainians will be happy.

    This is a very striking poll in the US.

    https://x.com/FrankLuntz/status/2049969268696232341

    55% think their financial situation is getting worse.
    Meanwhile, there’s said to be 200 Ukranian drones heading for Moscow again tonight.

    https://x.com/wartranslated/status/2051320491118330045

    Moscow might be out of air defences before their parade even starts.
    If Moscow is struggling to put on a good show, it’s nice of the Ukrainians to supply some free fireworks.
    It would be so f******g funny if the Ukranians landed a drone on Red Square on 9th, or even if they flew one by…
    It would suggest Ukraine's military is a bit Rusty.

    (Now there's a really subtle pun!)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,380
    Sandpit said:

    Sounds like they might be expecting a coup…

    https://x.com/united24media/status/2051215846370914352

    According to CNN, the Kremlin has restricted Vladimir Putin’s movements to fortified bunkers and intensified security for top military commanders following reports that the former defense minister maintains enough influence to lead an elite-driven assassination or power grab.

    I guess this defence minister spends all his time on the ground floor?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,380

    Leon said:

    Trollmaster General Nigel Farage's "Gulags for Greens" tweet now has 1 million views after 2 hours

    Pretty much job done?

    Polling that suggests if we were to limit the franchise to women under 50 (your target audience?) the Greens would win 486 seats.

    https://x.com/Mr_Andrew_Fox/status/2051245576977588607
    There's a load more voters after today who now know that electing Farage means ICE-style round-ups and detention camps in various parts of England.

    I think there's a ceiling to the vote that wants that Trump stuff here.

    This has not been the spectacular tactical brilliance some on here think it is imho.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,547

    Sandpit said:

    Sounds like they might be expecting a coup…

    https://x.com/united24media/status/2051215846370914352

    According to CNN, the Kremlin has restricted Vladimir Putin’s movements to fortified bunkers and intensified security for top military commanders following reports that the former defense minister maintains enough influence to lead an elite-driven assassination or power grab.

    I guess this defence minister spends all his time on the ground floor?
    Russian windows are dangerous in deep coal mines. To some people.
  • MelonBMelonB Posts: 17,363

    Leon said:

    Trollmaster General Nigel Farage's "Gulags for Greens" tweet now has 1 million views after 2 hours

    Pretty much job done?

    Polling that suggests if we were to limit the franchise to women under 50 (your target audience?) the Greens would win 486 seats.

    https://x.com/Mr_Andrew_Fox/status/2051245576977588607
    There's a load more voters after today who now know that electing Farage means ICE-style round-ups and detention camps in various parts of England.

    I think there's a ceiling to the vote that wants that Trump stuff here.

    This has not been the spectacular tactical brilliance some on here think it is imho.
    The worry is that they’ve uncorked the sort of American style “upsetting all the right people” nonsense that, for all our playground politics, we had up to now steered largely clear of.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 12,882
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    After Zelenskey "offered" to add some drones to the Moscow military parade, comes this...

    @robertscotthorton.bsky.social‬

    In the last week, Moscow has been flooded with rumors that Putin is about to be assassinated or ousted somehow. Nothing more than rumors. But still, Putin is spooked.

    https://bsky.app/profile/robertscotthorton.bsky.social/post/3mkzvob4pnc2j

    One surely doesn't advertise that a Head of State is 'about to be assassinated!"

    One just goes ahead and does it!
    If the FSB is doing its job, they should hear about it first.
    Unless they're saying they've caught the potential assassin and they'e trying to show how good they are.
    I think the rumours are inevitable. Putin does seem to be keeping clear of public appearances right now but the big parade is an unavoidable public occasion. People are bound to speculate. Perhaps he could cancel the event but it's so tied up with his own personal brand. If the Russian state is busy keeping VVP rather than their oil refineries safe I'm sure the Ukrainians will be happy.

    This is a very striking poll in the US.

    https://x.com/FrankLuntz/status/2049969268696232341

    55% think their financial situation is getting worse.
    Meanwhile, there’s said to be 200 Ukranian drones heading for Moscow again tonight.

    https://x.com/wartranslated/status/2051320491118330045

    Moscow might be out of air defences before their parade even starts.
    If Moscow is struggling to put on a good show, it’s nice of the Ukrainians to supply some free fireworks.
    It would be so f******g funny if the Ukranians landed a drone on Red Square on 9th, or even if they flew one by…
    It would suggest Ukraine's military is a bit Rusty.

    (Now there's a really subtle pun!)
    It's right to be nervous ahead of elections that could mean big changes in Wales. But to go entirely off your punning ability....

    I'll try to introduce some emergency fish pun opportunities.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,134
    I hate to use this phrase but if the Green economic platform is being advised by Gary Stephenson then they must be thick.

    Gary doesn’t seem to understand the difference between unrealised gains and income that’s going into my bank account every month. He seeks to think they are the same thing.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,357

    Two people have been arrested on suspicion of arson with intent to endanger life after a memorial wall in Golders Green, north London, was damaged on 27 April.

    The Metropolitan Police said a 46-year-old man and a 38-year-old woman were arrested on Monday morning... in Romford

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9v3kvjxr4mo

    Green Party members?
    The memorial wall is mainly for Iranian dissidents (as well as the 7th October victims) so I'm guessing the arsonists might have taken the IRGC's shilling as a possible motivation rather than antisemitism; we may find out later. That they attacked a wall and damaged only a filing cabinet suggests plod is trying it on with "intent to endanger life".
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,380
    JL Partners
    @JLPartnersPolls

    NEW: How many people really know who the UK party leaders are?

    We ran a representative poll of 5,000 British adults and showed them pictures of the main party leaders and asked them to identify them.

    Starmer and Farage top the poll, while only 12% know Rupert Lowe

    https://x.com/JLPartnersPolls/status/2051336931556946056

    ===

    I'm impressed that he gets 12% to be honest. There are more political nerds out there than we thought!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,789
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    After Zelenskey "offered" to add some drones to the Moscow military parade, comes this...

    @robertscotthorton.bsky.social‬

    In the last week, Moscow has been flooded with rumors that Putin is about to be assassinated or ousted somehow. Nothing more than rumors. But still, Putin is spooked.

    https://bsky.app/profile/robertscotthorton.bsky.social/post/3mkzvob4pnc2j

    One surely doesn't advertise that a Head of State is 'about to be assassinated!"

    One just goes ahead and does it!
    If the FSB is doing its job, they should hear about it first.
    Unless they're saying they've caught the potential assassin and they'e trying to show how good they are.
    I think the rumours are inevitable. Putin does seem to be keeping clear of public appearances right now but the big parade is an unavoidable public occasion. People are bound to speculate. Perhaps he could cancel the event but it's so tied up with his own personal brand. If the Russian state is busy keeping VVP rather than their oil refineries safe I'm sure the Ukrainians will be happy.

    This is a very striking poll in the US.

    https://x.com/FrankLuntz/status/2049969268696232341

    55% think their financial situation is getting worse.
    Meanwhile, there’s said to be 200 Ukranian drones heading for Moscow again tonight.

    https://x.com/wartranslated/status/2051320491118330045

    Moscow might be out of air defences before their parade even starts.
    If Moscow is struggling to put on a good show, it’s nice of the Ukrainians to supply some free fireworks.
    It would be so f******g funny if the Ukranians landed a drone on Red Square on 9th, or even if they flew one by…
    It would suggest Ukraine's military is a bit Rusty.

    (Now there's a really subtle pun!)
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathias_Rust
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,689

    I hate to use this phrase but if the Green economic platform is being advised by Gary Stephenson then they must be thick.

    Gary doesn’t seem to understand the difference between unrealised gains and income that’s going into my bank account every month. He seeks to think they are the same thing.

    I’d never heard of this guy before today, but he seems to be a parody or playing a character. There’s no way he actually worked in the City while being so uninformed about very basic economics.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 28,784
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    After Zelenskey "offered" to add some drones to the Moscow military parade, comes this...

    @robertscotthorton.bsky.social‬

    In the last week, Moscow has been flooded with rumors that Putin is about to be assassinated or ousted somehow. Nothing more than rumors. But still, Putin is spooked.

    https://bsky.app/profile/robertscotthorton.bsky.social/post/3mkzvob4pnc2j

    One surely doesn't advertise that a Head of State is 'about to be assassinated!"

    One just goes ahead and does it!
    If the FSB is doing its job, they should hear about it first.
    Unless they're saying they've caught the potential assassin and they'e trying to show how good they are.
    I think the rumours are inevitable. Putin does seem to be keeping clear of public appearances right now but the big parade is an unavoidable public occasion. People are bound to speculate. Perhaps he could cancel the event but it's so tied up with his own personal brand. If the Russian state is busy keeping VVP rather than their oil refineries safe I'm sure the Ukrainians will be happy.

    This is a very striking poll in the US.

    https://x.com/FrankLuntz/status/2049969268696232341

    55% think their financial situation is getting worse.
    Meanwhile, there’s said to be 200 Ukranian drones heading for Moscow again tonight.

    https://x.com/wartranslated/status/2051320491118330045

    Moscow might be out of air defences before their parade even starts.
    If Moscow is struggling to put on a good show, it’s nice of the Ukrainians to supply some free fireworks.
    It would be so f******g funny if the Ukranians landed a drone on Red Square on 9th, or even if they flew one by…
    It would suggest Ukraine's military is a bit Rusty.

    (Now there's a really subtle pun!)
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathias_Rust
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,490
    edited May 4
    Omnium said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    After Zelenskey "offered" to add some drones to the Moscow military parade, comes this...

    @robertscotthorton.bsky.social‬

    In the last week, Moscow has been flooded with rumors that Putin is about to be assassinated or ousted somehow. Nothing more than rumors. But still, Putin is spooked.

    https://bsky.app/profile/robertscotthorton.bsky.social/post/3mkzvob4pnc2j

    One surely doesn't advertise that a Head of State is 'about to be assassinated!"

    One just goes ahead and does it!
    If the FSB is doing its job, they should hear about it first.
    Unless they're saying they've caught the potential assassin and they'e trying to show how good they are.
    I think the rumours are inevitable. Putin does seem to be keeping clear of public appearances right now but the big parade is an unavoidable public occasion. People are bound to speculate. Perhaps he could cancel the event but it's so tied up with his own personal brand. If the Russian state is busy keeping VVP rather than their oil refineries safe I'm sure the Ukrainians will be happy.

    This is a very striking poll in the US.

    https://x.com/FrankLuntz/status/2049969268696232341

    55% think their financial situation is getting worse.
    Meanwhile, there’s said to be 200 Ukranian drones heading for Moscow again tonight.

    https://x.com/wartranslated/status/2051320491118330045

    Moscow might be out of air defences before their parade even starts.
    If Moscow is struggling to put on a good show, it’s nice of the Ukrainians to supply some free fireworks.
    It would be so f******g funny if the Ukranians landed a drone on Red Square on 9th, or even if they flew one by…
    It would suggest Ukraine's military is a bit Rusty.

    (Now there's a really subtle pun!)
    It's right to be nervous ahead of elections that could mean big changes in Wales. But to go entirely off your punning ability....

    I'll try to introduce some emergency fish pun opportunities.
    Ukraine's military is rusty.

    Wales is having big changes.

    Time for some fish puns.

    No, I don't see the link there if I'm honest.

    Are you feeling a bit low a lost sole?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,380
    edited May 4

    I hate to use this phrase but if the Green economic platform is being advised by Gary Stephenson then they must be thick.

    Gary doesn’t seem to understand the difference between unrealised gains and income that’s going into my bank account every month. He seeks to think they are the same thing.

    There's plenty of serious green economics people that Polanski could draw on. Scott Cato was an MEP for a while as just one example.

    But no - seems it has to a podcaster.

    Populism in action once again.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,789
    Leon said:

    Trollmaster General Nigel Farage's "Gulags for Greens" tweet now has 1 million views after 2 hours

    Pretty much job done?

    I thought he received £5 million??
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,134
    Sandpit said:

    I hate to use this phrase but if the Green economic platform is being advised by Gary Stephenson then they must be thick.

    Gary doesn’t seem to understand the difference between unrealised gains and income that’s going into my bank account every month. He seeks to think they are the same thing.

    I’d never heard of this guy before today, but he seems to be a parody or playing a character. There’s no way he actually worked in the City while being so uninformed about very basic economics.
    He’s been on my radar for a while but I’ve only listened to him at length recently.

    It becomes very clear very quickly that he doesn’t have a clue what he is talking about.

    He didn’t seem to be aware that trusts do pay taxes. I think he honestly believed they were completely free of taxes (in which case, why isn’t he being one?), even though they do.

    All his ideas seem to be that there’s plenty of money to tax just for some inconceivable reason nobody has thought to do it before.

    I guess some people lap this stuff up but put your critical thinking hat on and it quickly goes up in smoke.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 12,882
    ydoethur said:

    Omnium said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    After Zelenskey "offered" to add some drones to the Moscow military parade, comes this...

    @robertscotthorton.bsky.social‬

    In the last week, Moscow has been flooded with rumors that Putin is about to be assassinated or ousted somehow. Nothing more than rumors. But still, Putin is spooked.

    https://bsky.app/profile/robertscotthorton.bsky.social/post/3mkzvob4pnc2j

    One surely doesn't advertise that a Head of State is 'about to be assassinated!"

    One just goes ahead and does it!
    If the FSB is doing its job, they should hear about it first.
    Unless they're saying they've caught the potential assassin and they'e trying to show how good they are.
    I think the rumours are inevitable. Putin does seem to be keeping clear of public appearances right now but the big parade is an unavoidable public occasion. People are bound to speculate. Perhaps he could cancel the event but it's so tied up with his own personal brand. If the Russian state is busy keeping VVP rather than their oil refineries safe I'm sure the Ukrainians will be happy.

    This is a very striking poll in the US.

    https://x.com/FrankLuntz/status/2049969268696232341

    55% think their financial situation is getting worse.
    Meanwhile, there’s said to be 200 Ukranian drones heading for Moscow again tonight.

    https://x.com/wartranslated/status/2051320491118330045

    Moscow might be out of air defences before their parade even starts.
    If Moscow is struggling to put on a good show, it’s nice of the Ukrainians to supply some free fireworks.
    It would be so f******g funny if the Ukranians landed a drone on Red Square on 9th, or even if they flew one by…
    It would suggest Ukraine's military is a bit Rusty.

    (Now there's a really subtle pun!)
    It's right to be nervous ahead of elections that could mean big changes in Wales. But to go entirely off your punning ability....

    I'll try to introduce some emergency fish pun opportunities.
    Ukraine's military is rusty.

    Wales is having big changes.

    Time for some fish puns.

    No, I don't see the link there if I'm honest.

    Are you feeling a bit low a lost sole?
    Cod dammit, there you Perch! Well if I can't Kelp then you'll not be Herring from me again.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 33,522
    Nigelb said:

    MattW said:

    P-p-p-pickup an FPT:

    Nigelb said:


    Tomorrow, @TexasMonthly will be dropping a ~12,000 word story on Paul Pressler, the alleged sexual predator who remade the Southern Baptist Convention and helped ordain the marriage between the GOP and white evangelical voters. There is *a lot* in there and I hope you'll read it.
    https://x.com/RobertDownen_/status/2051060558112162211

    That's actually quite Trumpish in the manipulations, though establishment rather than robber-baron. Big wheel in the Southern Baptist, religious, and organising sector - politics, church, judge. Supplied very untransparently with "personal assistants" rather than a salary in one arrangement. Paid off a claimant with $450k hush money in 2004. Past experience of paying people off who made claims.

    (He's dead, btw.)

    A revealing little insight on these people. There was a stained glass window of HIM, rather than say a Saint or a bible story, in a Baptist Seminary, which was removed some years ago. They aggrandise themselves, regardless of all the "Prayer for Humility" type hymns. The window style is truly gruesome:



    (Report: https://www.brnow.org/news/SWBTS-removes-controversial-stained-glass-windows/ .)
    The Speaker of the House of Representatives had a connection of sorts.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Johnson
    ..In August 2010, Johnson was named the "founding dean" of the newly established Pressler School of Law at Louisiana College. The law school never opened, and Johnson resigned in August 2012.
    Joe Aguillard, accused by a university vice president of misappropriating money and lying to the board, blamed Johnson's resignation for the law school's failure. The college soon terminated Aguillard, as it was determined he "engaged in numerous improprieties and falsities in his representations not only to school donors, but to the Board of Trustees".The parent college has since been embroiled in administrative and legal problems.

    Johnson served from 2004 to 2012 on the Ethics and Religious Liberty Commission of the Southern Baptist Convention..
    I did not pick that up, but it's not a surprise. That's Johnson through and through. He's what Rev Spooner would call a Trumpist ducksicker.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,134

    I hate to use this phrase but if the Green economic platform is being advised by Gary Stephenson then they must be thick.

    Gary doesn’t seem to understand the difference between unrealised gains and income that’s going into my bank account every month. He seeks to think they are the same thing.

    There's plenty of serious green economics people that Polanski could draw on. Scott Cato was an MEP for a while as just one example.

    But no - seems it has to a podcaster.

    Populism in action once again.
    Reform and the Greens are two cheeks of the same arse as far as I am concerned.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 81,143
    Starmer might be able to stay on as the rival coup camps try and get their man in pole position
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,380
    Sam
    @SamCKx

    Nigel Farage has committed prosecutable election offences with this video under the Representation of the People Act 1983.

    The Act prohibits inducing voters through the threat of “temporal injury”, which includes material disadvantage such as the targeted imposition of government burdens.

    Threatening to specifically house illegal migrants in a constituency if it does not vote Reform is coercive and constitutes a criminal offence.

    https://x.com/SamCKx/status/2051302089083556051

    ===

    Dunno if this is true but doubt the electoral commission will do anything if it is.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 2,027

    I hate to use this phrase but if the Green economic platform is being advised by Gary Stephenson then they must be thick.

    Gary doesn’t seem to understand the difference between unrealised gains and income that’s going into my bank account every month. He seeks to think they are the same thing.

    The trouble is that, if you're really wealthy, it's easy to replace income with 'unrealised gains' and see your wealth accumulate.

    It I had £1bn in wealth I could easily structure a very safe investment portfolio that earns £50m a year (more if you want to take a bit of risk) and only take out a (relatively) modest income of let's say £500k.

    So I only pay £250k pa in taxes on £50m of earnings. Or 0.5%.

    I could realise those gains whenever I want to because they are all in incredibly liquid instruments with minimal transaction costs. But I don't, because I like to avoid tax.

    Throw in a few offshore trusts and you can probably avoid ever paying tax on your investment gains.

    It's a tough policy to crack, but I think it's fair to recognise it's a problem and shouting 'the gains aren't realised so can't be taxed' is naive at best.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,789
    viewcode said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    After Zelenskey "offered" to add some drones to the Moscow military parade, comes this...

    @robertscotthorton.bsky.social‬

    In the last week, Moscow has been flooded with rumors that Putin is about to be assassinated or ousted somehow. Nothing more than rumors. But still, Putin is spooked.

    https://bsky.app/profile/robertscotthorton.bsky.social/post/3mkzvob4pnc2j

    One surely doesn't advertise that a Head of State is 'about to be assassinated!"

    One just goes ahead and does it!
    If the FSB is doing its job, they should hear about it first.
    Unless they're saying they've caught the potential assassin and they'e trying to show how good they are.
    I think the rumours are inevitable. Putin does seem to be keeping clear of public appearances right now but the big parade is an unavoidable public occasion. People are bound to speculate. Perhaps he could cancel the event but it's so tied up with his own personal brand. If the Russian state is busy keeping VVP rather than their oil refineries safe I'm sure the Ukrainians will be happy.

    This is a very striking poll in the US.

    https://x.com/FrankLuntz/status/2049969268696232341

    55% think their financial situation is getting worse.
    Meanwhile, there’s said to be 200 Ukranian drones heading for Moscow again tonight.

    https://x.com/wartranslated/status/2051320491118330045

    Moscow might be out of air defences before their parade even starts.
    If Moscow is struggling to put on a good show, it’s nice of the Ukrainians to supply some free fireworks.
    It would be so f******g funny if the Ukranians landed a drone on Red Square on 9th, or even if they flew one by…
    It would suggest Ukraine's military is a bit Rusty.

    (Now there's a really subtle pun!)
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathias_Rust
    I beat you by one minute :lol:
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,357
    Sandpit said:

    LOL https://x.com/bbcstever/status/2051335092774060391

    Just got this text from my Moscow mobile operator: “During preparations for and the holding of holiday events from 5-9 May temporary restrictions to mobile internet and text messaging are possible in Moscow and Moscow region. This may cause difficulties with cashless payments, use of ATMs and GPS services.”

    Presumably to disrupt drone navigation.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,134
    Ratters said:

    I hate to use this phrase but if the Green economic platform is being advised by Gary Stephenson then they must be thick.

    Gary doesn’t seem to understand the difference between unrealised gains and income that’s going into my bank account every month. He seeks to think they are the same thing.

    The trouble is that, if you're really wealthy, it's easy to replace income with 'unrealised gains' and see your wealth accumulate.

    It I had £1bn in wealth I could easily structure a very safe investment portfolio that earns £50m a year (more if you want to take a bit of risk) and only take out a (relatively) modest income of let's say £500k.

    So I only pay £250k pa in taxes on £50m of earnings. Or 0.5%.

    I could realise those gains whenever I want to because they are all in incredibly liquid instruments with minimal transaction costs. But I don't, because I like to avoid tax.

    Throw in a few offshore trusts and you can probably avoid ever paying tax on your investment gains.

    It's a tough policy to crack, but I think it's fair to recognise it's a problem and shouting 'the gains aren't realised so can't be taxed' is naive at best.
    But to even call them earnings is misleading. If the stock market crashed tomorrow that money would “disappear” - it never existed.

    I don’t see how choosing to invest in something safe and then not realising the gain can ever really be stopped. Do we set some arbitrary cap that if your unrealised gains hit some level suddenly they’re liable for tax? What if the gains then all disappear, do you get the money back?

    And why not just setup an account abroad where you won’t have this problem?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 33,522
    edited May 4
    Leon said:

    The Reform Gulags for Greens policy is genius


    1. It's a massive dead cat to distract from Farage's five mil, and it's working

    2. It's designed to annoy all the right noisy people, and it's working (see point 1)

    and

    3. It ensures the objectors must say why having a migrant camp in your nice liberal Green-voting area is suddenly so bad, rather than just dumping them in the poorest parts of the country, for the white working classes to deal with, which is what we have done until now

    I agree with @Leon on the politics of this, though I have not been watching the reactions over a BH weekend.

    It's a dead cat - and a claimed policy for 2029 aimed at the local election because anyone who believes a word of it will be pushed towards doing what Farage wants.

    A good response would have perhaps been to point out that Farage is a bullshit-artist to his bones, then pivot straight to His Master's Voice from Thailand, and Farage now being owned by an oligarch whilst hiding it.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 43,521
    Iran struck a ship in the Strait earlier today

    Trump says it doesn't count
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,134
    Yeah Team Farage has played a blinder.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,689
    edited May 4

    Sandpit said:

    I hate to use this phrase but if the Green economic platform is being advised by Gary Stephenson then they must be thick.

    Gary doesn’t seem to understand the difference between unrealised gains and income that’s going into my bank account every month. He seeks to think they are the same thing.

    I’d never heard of this guy before today, but he seems to be a parody or playing a character. There’s no way he actually worked in the City while being so uninformed about very basic economics.
    He’s been on my radar for a while but I’ve only listened to him at length recently.

    It becomes very clear very quickly that he doesn’t have a clue what he is talking about.

    He didn’t seem to be aware that trusts do pay taxes. I think he honestly believed they were completely free of taxes (in which case, why isn’t he being one?), even though they do.

    All his ideas seem to be that there’s plenty of money to tax just for some inconceivable reason nobody has thought to do it before.

    I guess some people lap this stuff up but put your critical thinking hat on and it quickly goes up in smoke.
    At length?

    It took less than two minutes to discover that he doesn’t understand the difference between capital asset values and personal employment income, before anything about trusts.

    There’s genuine leftwing arguments to be made about higher asset taxes, but this guy isn’t one to make them.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,357
    London local elections: the battlefield boroughs to watch
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2cZgyRXTtNw

    2½-minute run-through from Tony Travers & the Standard.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,134
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    I hate to use this phrase but if the Green economic platform is being advised by Gary Stephenson then they must be thick.

    Gary doesn’t seem to understand the difference between unrealised gains and income that’s going into my bank account every month. He seeks to think they are the same thing.

    I’d never heard of this guy before today, but he seems to be a parody or playing a character. There’s no way he actually worked in the City while being so uninformed about very basic economics.
    He’s been on my radar for a while but I’ve only listened to him at length recently.

    It becomes very clear very quickly that he doesn’t have a clue what he is talking about.

    He didn’t seem to be aware that trusts do pay taxes. I think he honestly believed they were completely free of taxes (in which case, why isn’t he being one?), even though they do.

    All his ideas seem to be that there’s plenty of money to tax just for some inconceivable reason nobody has thought to do it before.

    I guess some people lap this stuff up but put your critical thinking hat on and it quickly goes up in smoke.
    At length?

    It took less than two minutes to discover that he doesn’t understand the difference between capital asset values and personal employment income, before anything about trusts.

    There’s genuine leftwing arguments to be made about higher asset taxes, but this guy isn’t one to make them.
    I watched him on a podcast. I’d only heard tiny 5 second clips about “tax the rich” before.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 19,659
    edited May 4
    Scott_xP said:

    @chadbourn.bsky.social‬
    · 3h
    Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Iran: "We have absolute control of the Strait."

    @chadbourn.bsky.social‬
    · 46s
    Iran has targeted commercial and US military vessels with cruise missiles, Reuters reports.

    @bretdevereaux.bsky.social‬
    · 1m
    So a tanker damaged and now a 'demonstration' strike (it doesn't seem like they hit very hard) against UAE oil facilities.

    I wonder who Iran's intended audience is: leverage in negotiations or an effort to demonstrate to markets that Iran owns the strait and they should price accordingly.

    Either way, further evidence that the Iranian regime thinks it is winning and is trying to press its advantage, rather than seeking a swift deescalation.

    There's been a lot of speculation about the US being on the point of breaking the ceasefire. This may be Iran preempting the break.

    Tyler difference this time Iran can't close Hormuz any more than it is already.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,689

    Sandpit said:

    LOL https://x.com/bbcstever/status/2051335092774060391

    Just got this text from my Moscow mobile operator: “During preparations for and the holding of holiday events from 5-9 May temporary restrictions to mobile internet and text messaging are possible in Moscow and Moscow region. This may cause difficulties with cashless payments, use of ATMs and GPS services.”

    Presumably to disrupt drone navigation.
    Yes, except that the long-range Ukrainian drones now have Starlink, and for all his faults Elon’s been absolutely brilliant in denying this to the Russians.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 43,521
    @meidastouch.com‬

    After Scott Bessent earlier urged China to help the U.S. open the Strait of Hormuz, despite claiming the U.S. had "absolute control" over the Strait, Trump is now asking South Korea to help.

    https://bsky.app/profile/meidastouch.com/post/3ml277wz6w22a
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,689
    edited May 4

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    I hate to use this phrase but if the Green economic platform is being advised by Gary Stephenson then they must be thick.

    Gary doesn’t seem to understand the difference between unrealised gains and income that’s going into my bank account every month. He seeks to think they are the same thing.

    I’d never heard of this guy before today, but he seems to be a parody or playing a character. There’s no way he actually worked in the City while being so uninformed about very basic economics.
    He’s been on my radar for a while but I’ve only listened to him at length recently.

    It becomes very clear very quickly that he doesn’t have a clue what he is talking about.

    He didn’t seem to be aware that trusts do pay taxes. I think he honestly believed they were completely free of taxes (in which case, why isn’t he being one?), even though they do.

    All his ideas seem to be that there’s plenty of money to tax just for some inconceivable reason nobody has thought to do it before.

    I guess some people lap this stuff up but put your critical thinking hat on and it quickly goes up in smoke.
    At length?

    It took less than two minutes to discover that he doesn’t understand the difference between capital asset values and personal employment income, before anything about trusts.

    There’s genuine leftwing arguments to be made about higher asset taxes, but this guy isn’t one to make them.
    I watched him on a podcast. I’d only heard tiny 5 second clips about “tax the rich” before.
    He really does seem to think that Elon Musk is swimming in a pile of gold like Scrooge McDuck, with ‘wealth’ being a zero-sum game, as opposed to the serial entrepreneur who’s built more than half a dozen business from nothing, generating massive amounts of GDP and ‘wealth’ for others, as well as generating massive tax revenues from selling useful products.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,134
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    I hate to use this phrase but if the Green economic platform is being advised by Gary Stephenson then they must be thick.

    Gary doesn’t seem to understand the difference between unrealised gains and income that’s going into my bank account every month. He seeks to think they are the same thing.

    I’d never heard of this guy before today, but he seems to be a parody or playing a character. There’s no way he actually worked in the City while being so uninformed about very basic economics.
    He’s been on my radar for a while but I’ve only listened to him at length recently.

    It becomes very clear very quickly that he doesn’t have a clue what he is talking about.

    He didn’t seem to be aware that trusts do pay taxes. I think he honestly believed they were completely free of taxes (in which case, why isn’t he being one?), even though they do.

    All his ideas seem to be that there’s plenty of money to tax just for some inconceivable reason nobody has thought to do it before.

    I guess some people lap this stuff up but put your critical thinking hat on and it quickly goes up in smoke.
    At length?

    It took less than two minutes to discover that he doesn’t understand the difference between capital asset values and personal employment income, before anything about trusts.

    There’s genuine leftwing arguments to be made about higher asset taxes, but this guy isn’t one to make them.
    I watched him on a podcast. I’d only heard tiny 5 second clips about “tax the rich” before.
    He really does seem to think that Elon Musk is swimming in a pile of gold like Scrooge McDuck, with ‘wealth’ being a zero-sum game, as opposed to the serial entrepreneur who’s built more than half a dozen business from nothing and generated massive amounts of GDP and ‘wealth’ for others.
    I agree with you in principle but Musk is a nasty individual and a bad choice to have used.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,671

    Sandpit said:

    I hate to use this phrase but if the Green economic platform is being advised by Gary Stephenson then they must be thick.

    Gary doesn’t seem to understand the difference between unrealised gains and income that’s going into my bank account every month. He seeks to think they are the same thing.

    I’d never heard of this guy before today, but he seems to be a parody or playing a character. There’s no way he actually worked in the City while being so uninformed about very basic economics.
    He’s been on my radar for a while but I’ve only listened to him at length recently.

    It becomes very clear very quickly that he doesn’t have a clue what he is talking about.

    He didn’t seem to be aware that trusts do pay taxes. I think he honestly believed they were completely free of taxes (in which case, why isn’t he being one?), even though they do.

    All his ideas seem to be that there’s plenty of money to tax just for some inconceivable reason nobody has thought to do it before.

    I guess some people lap this stuff up but put your critical thinking hat on and it quickly goes up in smoke.
    Magic money tree re-appears.
  • eekeek Posts: 33,922
    Ratters said:

    I hate to use this phrase but if the Green economic platform is being advised by Gary Stephenson then they must be thick.

    Gary doesn’t seem to understand the difference between unrealised gains and income that’s going into my bank account every month. He seeks to think they are the same thing.

    The trouble is that, if you're really wealthy, it's easy to replace income with 'unrealised gains' and see your wealth accumulate.

    It I had £1bn in wealth I could easily structure a very safe investment portfolio that earns £50m a year (more if you want to take a bit of risk) and only take out a (relatively) modest income of let's say £500k.

    So I only pay £250k pa in taxes on £50m of earnings. Or 0.5%.

    I could realise those gains whenever I want to because they are all in incredibly liquid instruments with minimal transaction costs. But I don't, because I like to avoid tax.

    Throw in a few offshore trusts and you can probably avoid ever paying tax on your investment gains.

    It's a tough policy to crack, but I think it's fair to recognise it's a problem and shouting 'the gains aren't realised so can't be taxed' is naive at best.
    The test has to be is the gain realisable or is it locked away. Hence investments in companies and property aren't subject to capital gains tax on demand but money market profits would be.

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 28,784
    Sandpit said:

    I hate to use this phrase but if the Green economic platform is being advised by Gary Stephenson then they must be thick.

    Gary doesn’t seem to understand the difference between unrealised gains and income that’s going into my bank account every month. He seeks to think they are the same thing.

    I’d never heard of this guy before today, but he seems to be a parody or playing a character. There’s no way he actually worked in the City while being so uninformed about very basic economics.
    I like him. I understand the comments from those on here about him not understanding financial subtleties, and from a betting POV he's too trustingly faithful in betting markets. But his prescription ("tax wealth not work") appeals and yes, I understand there's a problem with that but as I keep saying existing ideology has stopped working so we need to try something new. Or do you think setting up internment camps in Camden is a good idea? We are run by an idiot who thinks Britain's not broken and that all that was necessary was to obey the law nicely, and Starmer has pissed away a landslide majority. The status quo is not working, so heterodox policies must be considered.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gary_Stevenson_(campaigner)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,689
    edited May 4

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    I hate to use this phrase but if the Green economic platform is being advised by Gary Stephenson then they must be thick.

    Gary doesn’t seem to understand the difference between unrealised gains and income that’s going into my bank account every month. He seeks to think they are the same thing.

    I’d never heard of this guy before today, but he seems to be a parody or playing a character. There’s no way he actually worked in the City while being so uninformed about very basic economics.
    He’s been on my radar for a while but I’ve only listened to him at length recently.

    It becomes very clear very quickly that he doesn’t have a clue what he is talking about.

    He didn’t seem to be aware that trusts do pay taxes. I think he honestly believed they were completely free of taxes (in which case, why isn’t he being one?), even though they do.

    All his ideas seem to be that there’s plenty of money to tax just for some inconceivable reason nobody has thought to do it before.

    I guess some people lap this stuff up but put your critical thinking hat on and it quickly goes up in smoke.
    At length?

    It took less than two minutes to discover that he doesn’t understand the difference between capital asset values and personal employment income, before anything about trusts.

    There’s genuine leftwing arguments to be made about higher asset taxes, but this guy isn’t one to make them.
    I watched him on a podcast. I’d only heard tiny 5 second clips about “tax the rich” before.
    He really does seem to think that Elon Musk is swimming in a pile of gold like Scrooge McDuck, with ‘wealth’ being a zero-sum game, as opposed to the serial entrepreneur who’s built more than half a dozen business from nothing and generated massive amounts of GDP and ‘wealth’ for others.
    I agree with you in principle but Musk is a nasty individual and a bad choice to have used.
    Musk is possibly the best example, because he switched his politics after the American left went insane.

    The biggest cultural turning point in recent years was when Elon bought Twitter.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,789

    London local elections: the battlefield boroughs to watch
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2cZgyRXTtNw

    2½-minute run-through from Tony Travers & the Standard.

    Received Reform and Tory leaflets through the door the last couple of days.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,490
    Scott_xP said:

    @meidastouch.com‬

    After Scott Bessent earlier urged China to help the U.S. open the Strait of Hormuz, despite claiming the U.S. had "absolute control" over the Strait, Trump is now asking South Korea to help.

    https://bsky.app/profile/meidastouch.com/post/3ml277wz6w22a

    It will be really, really funny when he asks the Vietnamese.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,490
    Has anyone set up a Darth Potus account on Twitter?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 43,521
    ydoethur said:

    Has anyone set up a Darth Potus account on Twitter?

    How exactly do you parody the Mad King?
  • RattersRatters Posts: 2,027
    edited May 4
    eek said:

    Ratters said:

    I hate to use this phrase but if the Green economic platform is being advised by Gary Stephenson then they must be thick.

    Gary doesn’t seem to understand the difference between unrealised gains and income that’s going into my bank account every month. He seeks to think they are the same thing.

    The trouble is that, if you're really wealthy, it's easy to replace income with 'unrealised gains' and see your wealth accumulate.

    It I had £1bn in wealth I could easily structure a very safe investment portfolio that earns £50m a year (more if you want to take a bit of risk) and only take out a (relatively) modest income of let's say £500k.

    So I only pay £250k pa in taxes on £50m of earnings. Or 0.5%.

    I could realise those gains whenever I want to because they are all in incredibly liquid instruments with minimal transaction costs. But I don't, because I like to avoid tax.

    Throw in a few offshore trusts and you can probably avoid ever paying tax on your investment gains.

    It's a tough policy to crack, but I think it's fair to recognise it's a problem and shouting 'the gains aren't realised so can't be taxed' is naive at best.
    The test has to be is the gain realisable or is it locked away. Hence investments in companies and property aren't subject to capital gains tax on demand but money market profits would be.

    I broadly agree, but is that currently the case?

    I'm no expert, but I'd be surprised if there wasn't currently a perfectly legal loophole that enables people to accumulate wealth through money market type investments without paying tax on profit. Find a company that all it does is money market fund investments, for example.

    Or for people who invest in proper companies, find a way to avoid paying capital gains when they eventually sell (or die and pass on as inheritance).

    Personally I'd go down the wealth tax route: tax a percentage of wealth regardless of how you got it. But for it to work on financial assets, we need the US to join or else all companies will just decamp to there.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,689
    Well done to Kemi, confronting a protestor out today.

    https://x.com/jakewsimons/status/2051346428622983517
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,134
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    I hate to use this phrase but if the Green economic platform is being advised by Gary Stephenson then they must be thick.

    Gary doesn’t seem to understand the difference between unrealised gains and income that’s going into my bank account every month. He seeks to think they are the same thing.

    I’d never heard of this guy before today, but he seems to be a parody or playing a character. There’s no way he actually worked in the City while being so uninformed about very basic economics.
    He’s been on my radar for a while but I’ve only listened to him at length recently.

    It becomes very clear very quickly that he doesn’t have a clue what he is talking about.

    He didn’t seem to be aware that trusts do pay taxes. I think he honestly believed they were completely free of taxes (in which case, why isn’t he being one?), even though they do.

    All his ideas seem to be that there’s plenty of money to tax just for some inconceivable reason nobody has thought to do it before.

    I guess some people lap this stuff up but put your critical thinking hat on and it quickly goes up in smoke.
    At length?

    It took less than two minutes to discover that he doesn’t understand the difference between capital asset values and personal employment income, before anything about trusts.

    There’s genuine leftwing arguments to be made about higher asset taxes, but this guy isn’t one to make them.
    I watched him on a podcast. I’d only heard tiny 5 second clips about “tax the rich” before.
    He really does seem to think that Elon Musk is swimming in a pile of gold like Scrooge McDuck, with ‘wealth’ being a zero-sum game, as opposed to the serial entrepreneur who’s built more than half a dozen business from nothing and generated massive amounts of GDP and ‘wealth’ for others.
    I agree with you in principle but Musk is a nasty individual and a bad choice to have used.
    Musk is possibly the best example, because he switched his politics after the American left went insane.

    The biggest cultural turning point in recent years was when Elon bought Twitter.
    Do you think he’s a nasty individual or not?

    Some of the dealings he had at PayPal would suggest that he is.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 33,522

    Royal Navy left with five frigates after HMS Iron Duke quietly withdrawn
    Warship taken out of service, despite a £103m refit designed to extend its lifespan to 2028
    ...

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/05/04/royal-navy-five-frigates-hms-iron-duke-withdrawn/ (£££)

    Summary, which I think is correct:

    Labour government 97-2010, Tory government 2010-2024.
    No Frigates ordered from 1996 to 2017.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,134
    https://x.com/lmharpin/status/2051359564092654080

    Just the deputy leader of the Greens repeating falsehoods
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,490
    edited May 4
    MattW said:

    Royal Navy left with five frigates after HMS Iron Duke quietly withdrawn
    Warship taken out of service, despite a £103m refit designed to extend its lifespan to 2028
    ...

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/05/04/royal-navy-five-frigates-hms-iron-duke-withdrawn/ (£££)

    Summary, which I think is correct:

    Labour government 97-2010, Tory government 2010-2024.
    No Frigates ordered from 1996 to 2017.
    I'm just puzzled at the idea we still have a battleship. Is that HMS Victory counted because reasons?
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 4,848
    Scott_xP said:

    ydoethur said:

    Has anyone set up a Darth Potus account on Twitter?

    How exactly do you parody the Mad King?
    Darth Potus posts would be sensible and reasoned.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,689

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    I hate to use this phrase but if the Green economic platform is being advised by Gary Stephenson then they must be thick.

    Gary doesn’t seem to understand the difference between unrealised gains and income that’s going into my bank account every month. He seeks to think they are the same thing.

    I’d never heard of this guy before today, but he seems to be a parody or playing a character. There’s no way he actually worked in the City while being so uninformed about very basic economics.
    He’s been on my radar for a while but I’ve only listened to him at length recently.

    It becomes very clear very quickly that he doesn’t have a clue what he is talking about.

    He didn’t seem to be aware that trusts do pay taxes. I think he honestly believed they were completely free of taxes (in which case, why isn’t he being one?), even though they do.

    All his ideas seem to be that there’s plenty of money to tax just for some inconceivable reason nobody has thought to do it before.

    I guess some people lap this stuff up but put your critical thinking hat on and it quickly goes up in smoke.
    At length?

    It took less than two minutes to discover that he doesn’t understand the difference between capital asset values and personal employment income, before anything about trusts.

    There’s genuine leftwing arguments to be made about higher asset taxes, but this guy isn’t one to make them.
    I watched him on a podcast. I’d only heard tiny 5 second clips about “tax the rich” before.
    He really does seem to think that Elon Musk is swimming in a pile of gold like Scrooge McDuck, with ‘wealth’ being a zero-sum game, as opposed to the serial entrepreneur who’s built more than half a dozen business from nothing and generated massive amounts of GDP and ‘wealth’ for others.
    I agree with you in principle but Musk is a nasty individual and a bad choice to have used.
    Musk is possibly the best example, because he switched his politics after the American left went insane.

    The biggest cultural turning point in recent years was when Elon bought Twitter.
    Do you think he’s a nasty individual or not?

    Some of the dealings he had at PayPal would suggest that he is.
    I wouldn’t describe him as ‘nasty’, especially not based on comments from two decades ago, but accept that he’s a divisive character because of his endorsement of, and work for, the current US president.
This discussion has been closed.