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A member of Labour’s NEC repudiates the Burnham spin – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 13,170
edited May 3 in General
A member of Labour’s NEC repudiates the Burnham spin – politicalbetting.com

The amount of spin coming out Team Burnham is impressive but I think it is damaging him. What I think is worrying Andy Burnham is that there is going to be a leadership contest soon which he wont be able to partake in.

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Comments

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,488
    Curse of the new thread:

    They're spinning more than Andy Burnham in Miami and it's not even raining yet.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,354

    Darren Johnson
    @DarrenJohnson66
    ·
    1h
    There's never been any proper [Green Party] vetting whatsoever. When I was organising election campaigns for Lewisham Greens, I had to invent a disclosure form for the local candidate selections as no such thing even existed nationally. I've still got it here on my laptop.

    https://x.com/DarrenJohnson66/status/2050960151281127849
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 23,086
    Andy Burnham is too flaky to be PM.
    Angela Rayner too stupid.
    Ed Miliband too left wing.

    It kind of has to be Streeting, if anyone cares about the country.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,566
    ydoethur said:

    Curse of the new thread:

    They're spinning more than Andy Burnham in Miami and it's not even raining yet.

    Gasly is a very lucky boy.

    Thank God they make the cars so safe, when I first started watching F1 in the early 90s this accident would have been fatal.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 22,030

    Andy Burnham is too flaky to be PM.
    Angela Rayner too stupid.
    Ed Miliband too left wing.

    It kind of has to be Streeting, if anyone cares about the country.

    God help us
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,354
    Spencer Hakimian
    @SpencerHakimian
    ·
    2h
    🚨BREAKING: Gas hits $5.00/Gallon in Texas.

    https://x.com/SpencerHakimian/status/2050958722642460704
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,196
    What amuses me about Burnham's situation is that if he misses out on his long-held desire to be Labour leader and PM, it will mainly be because he misjudged Starmer's ability to do the job well enough to remain as PM and win a second general election in 2028.

    All he had to do was read Casino's comments on PB.com and he would have known that Starmer didn't have the political chops to last that long, he would have moved to the Commons at GE2024, and would now be perfectly placed to succeed Starmer.

    Instead Burnham demonstrated awful judgement of Starmer's ability, and severely underestimated the difficulty of the job of PM, possibly indicating what the likely result would be in the unlikely event that he becomes PM.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,488

    Andy Burnham is too flaky to be PM.
    Angela Rayner too stupid.
    Ed Miliband too left wing.

    It kind of has to be Streeting, if anyone cares about the country.

    Don't swallow Streeting's own estimation of himself. When looked at with a cold eye he's shown less administrative ability than Rayner or Burnham. There is no reason to think he would suddenly improve as PM.

    However, as he is deeply unpopular with members the point is in all likelihood moot.

    Of your list, Miliband is probably Starmer's likeliest successor, but I am surprised how seldom Cooper is mentioned.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,488

    ydoethur said:

    Curse of the new thread:

    They're spinning more than Andy Burnham in Miami and it's not even raining yet.

    Gasly is a very lucky boy.

    Thank God they make the cars so safe, when I first started watching F1 in the early 90s this accident would have been fatal.
    I was thinking that sort of crash rather justified the Halo.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,960

    Andy Burnham is too flaky to be PM.
    Angela Rayner too stupid.
    Ed Miliband too left wing.

    It kind of has to be Streeting, if anyone cares about the country.

    Miliband is bonkers and hiding truths from.a gullible public. All.his bollocks about net zero.is bullshit.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,196

    Spencer Hakimian
    @SpencerHakimian
    ·
    2h
    🚨BREAKING: Gas hits $5.00/Gallon in Texas.

    https://x.com/SpencerHakimian/status/2050958722642460704

    What's a reasonable worst-case scenario for the GOP in the midterms if we assume that the elections aren't stolen and the Strait of Hormuz isn't opened?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,488

    What amuses me about Burnham's situation is that if he misses out on his long-held desire to be Labour leader and PM, it will mainly be because he misjudged Starmer's ability to do the job well enough to remain as PM and win a second general election in 2028.

    All he had to do was read Casino's comments on PB.com and he would have known that Starmer didn't have the political chops to last that long, he would have moved to the Commons at GE2024, and would now be perfectly placed to succeed Starmer.

    Instead Burnham demonstrated awful judgement of Starmer's ability, and severely underestimated the difficulty of the job of PM, possibly indicating what the likely result would be in the unlikely event that he becomes PM.

    He would probably have been Home Secretary at this moment and explaining why the boats haven't been stopped. I'm not sure that's perfect placement.

    However, Massive's tenure of the Foreign Office was the total car crash we all predicted and it didn't affect his popularity with certain dimwits.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,566
    I see the stewards are still protecting Max Verstappen.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,488

    Spencer Hakimian
    @SpencerHakimian
    ·
    2h
    🚨BREAKING: Gas hits $5.00/Gallon in Texas.

    https://x.com/SpencerHakimian/status/2050958722642460704

    What's a reasonable worst-case scenario for the GOP in the midterms if we assume that the elections aren't stolen and the Strait of Hormuz isn't opened?
    Loss of the House and Senate.

    I doubt if it will swerve by any sort of substantial majority though. If the Dems hold all their current senate seats and pick up six they will have had a sensational night. Four seems more plausible.

    They won't get the two thirds they need to remove Trump and his fellow criminals from the government and the courts.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 3,811
    ydoethur said:

    Andy Burnham is too flaky to be PM.
    Angela Rayner too stupid.
    Ed Miliband too left wing.

    It kind of has to be Streeting, if anyone cares about the country.

    Don't swallow Streeting's own estimation of himself. When looked at with a cold eye he's shown less administrative ability than Rayner or Burnham. There is no reason to think he would suddenly improve as PM.

    However, as he is deeply unpopular with members the point is in all likelihood moot.

    Of your list, Miliband is probably Starmer's likeliest successor, but I am surprised how seldom Cooper is mentioned.
    Agree with you on Cooper. If Labour need a leader in a hurry she ticks a lot of boxes, not least being a woman (can Labour really have yet another white male leader?), not undermining the party through over-ambition, and holding a senior position in cabinet. She would be much less divisive than Burnham or Streeting, hasn't already lost an election as leader (Miliband), nor had to resign due to her finances. Seems a pretty safe choice insofar as there could be said to be one.

    Downside is that she may just end up as Starmer 2: uncharismatic place-holder.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,354
    Trevor Phillips @TrevorPTweets is increasingly looking like the heir to Andrew Neil as the Kingdom's Official Difficult Interviewer judging by the roasting Polanski got this morning.

  • TazTaz Posts: 28,123

    Spencer Hakimian
    @SpencerHakimian
    ·
    2h
    🚨BREAKING: Gas hits $5.00/Gallon in Texas.

    https://x.com/SpencerHakimian/status/2050958722642460704

    What's a reasonable worst-case scenario for the GOP in the midterms if we assume that the elections aren't stolen and the Strait of Hormuz isn't opened?
    Lose the senate and the house.

    The GOP would deserve it.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 4,467

    ydoethur said:

    Andy Burnham is too flaky to be PM.
    Angela Rayner too stupid.
    Ed Miliband too left wing.

    It kind of has to be Streeting, if anyone cares about the country.

    Don't swallow Streeting's own estimation of himself. When looked at with a cold eye he's shown less administrative ability than Rayner or Burnham. There is no reason to think he would suddenly improve as PM.

    However, as he is deeply unpopular with members the point is in all likelihood moot.

    Of your list, Miliband is probably Starmer's likeliest successor, but I am surprised how seldom Cooper is mentioned.
    Agree with you on Cooper. If Labour need a leader in a hurry she ticks a lot of boxes, not least being a woman (can Labour really have yet another white male leader?), not undermining the party through over-ambition, and holding a senior position in cabinet. She would be much less divisive than Burnham or Streeting, hasn't already lost an election as leader (Miliband), nor had to resign due to her finances. Seems a pretty safe choice insofar as there could be said to be one.

    Downside is that she may just end up as Starmer 2: uncharismatic place-holder.
    A few Hacker vibes from Cooper- i think she could pick up some very quick momentum as the others tue themselves in knots.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,488
    Taz said:

    Spencer Hakimian
    @SpencerHakimian
    ·
    2h
    🚨BREAKING: Gas hits $5.00/Gallon in Texas.

    https://x.com/SpencerHakimian/status/2050958722642460704

    What's a reasonable worst-case scenario for the GOP in the midterms if we assume that the elections aren't stolen and the Strait of Hormuz isn't opened?
    Lose the senate and the house.

    The GOP would deserve it.
    Let's consider the Senate seats they could pick up.

    Assuming a hold in Georgia and Michigan, which didn't look certain a year ago (certainly the former).

    Maine looks a certainty.

    Ohio and North Carolina look very possible.

    Texas and Alaska both look realistic if not straightforward.

    If they have an astonishing night they might pick up one of Kansas or Florida and the independent they are backing in Nebraska might pull off a win.

    So in a very best case scenario where on top of everything else Donald Trump is caught publicly masturbating over a photo of Barack Obama or something, they might pick up six seats and a Dem-leaning independent one.

    In a more normal scenario, they should pick up three, maybe four or five.

    If therefore they do any better than that we can fairly safely say no Republican will be in the White House in 2028 without even more substantial vote rigging than they have managed up to now.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,230

    ydoethur said:

    Andy Burnham is too flaky to be PM.
    Angela Rayner too stupid.
    Ed Miliband too left wing.

    It kind of has to be Streeting, if anyone cares about the country.

    Don't swallow Streeting's own estimation of himself. When looked at with a cold eye he's shown less administrative ability than Rayner or Burnham. There is no reason to think he would suddenly improve as PM.

    However, as he is deeply unpopular with members the point is in all likelihood moot.

    Of your list, Miliband is probably Starmer's likeliest successor, but I am surprised how seldom Cooper is mentioned.
    Agree with you on Cooper. If Labour need a leader in a hurry she ticks a lot of boxes, not least being a woman (can Labour really have yet another white male leader?), not undermining the party through over-ambition, and holding a senior position in cabinet. She would be much less divisive than Burnham or Streeting, hasn't already lost an election as leader (Miliband), nor had to resign due to her finances. Seems a pretty safe choice insofar as there could be said to be one.

    Downside is that she may just end up as Starmer 2: uncharismatic place-holder.
    Were he not on the right wing of the party, Streeting's homosexuality would be considered terribly sophisticated. But having the temerity not to be a Corbynite, hs is just "yet another white male leader".
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,354
    Larry Sabato
    @LarrySabato
    Trump’s base still 37%. Question: Will $5/gallon subtract points? $6/gallon? What’s the break point on inflation, higher food prices?


    Larry Sabato
    @LarrySabato
    ·
    2h
    Looking at the responses, a large majority believe there is NO break point. And if there is one, the situation must be far more dire than today.

    https://x.com/LarrySabato/status/2050931830279336198
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,488

    ydoethur said:

    Andy Burnham is too flaky to be PM.
    Angela Rayner too stupid.
    Ed Miliband too left wing.

    It kind of has to be Streeting, if anyone cares about the country.

    Don't swallow Streeting's own estimation of himself. When looked at with a cold eye he's shown less administrative ability than Rayner or Burnham. There is no reason to think he would suddenly improve as PM.

    However, as he is deeply unpopular with members the point is in all likelihood moot.

    Of your list, Miliband is probably Starmer's likeliest successor, but I am surprised how seldom Cooper is mentioned.
    I wouldn't dream of voting for Streeting (still less Mahmood) and IMHO that's the position of most members, as they are both seen as too right-wing. Ed M would be an interesting choice (and not especially left-wing), and Cooper an OK one, but it seems unlikely that anyone will want to take over with Burnham hovering in the wings and temporarily excluded by a maneouvre. I can see Starmer hanging on despite potentially awful local elections on the basis that a full choice of alternatives isn't available yet and it's too far from the next election - he can probably buy time by hinting that he'll go before then. If things cheer up he'll benefit, and if they don't he can stand down with dignity in a year or two.
    But surely that's another reason to still lay Burnham? There is still no route for him to become and MP without Labour's polling recovering, which would nix any idea of a challenge.
  • eekeek Posts: 33,915

    Larry Sabato
    @LarrySabato
    Trump’s base still 37%. Question: Will $5/gallon subtract points? $6/gallon? What’s the break point on inflation, higher food prices?


    Larry Sabato
    @LarrySabato
    ·
    2h
    Looking at the responses, a large majority believe there is NO break point. And if there is one, the situation must be far more dire than today.

    https://x.com/LarrySabato/status/2050931830279336198

    Got to say I think that's the case. A lot of people will suffer a looot of pain before they will accept they have made wrong decisions.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,488
    eek said:

    Larry Sabato
    @LarrySabato
    Trump’s base still 37%. Question: Will $5/gallon subtract points? $6/gallon? What’s the break point on inflation, higher food prices?


    Larry Sabato
    @LarrySabato
    ·
    2h
    Looking at the responses, a large majority believe there is NO break point. And if there is one, the situation must be far more dire than today.

    https://x.com/LarrySabato/status/2050931830279336198

    Got to say I think that's the case. A lot of people will suffer a looot of pain before they will accept they have made wrong decisions.
    Trump was - for once - right when he said he could shoot someone in public and his voters would still vote for him.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,794
    edited May 3
    eek said:

    Larry Sabato
    @LarrySabato
    Trump’s base still 37%. Question: Will $5/gallon subtract points? $6/gallon? What’s the break point on inflation, higher food prices?


    Larry Sabato
    @LarrySabato
    ·
    2h
    Looking at the responses, a large majority believe there is NO break point. And if there is one, the situation must be far more dire than today.

    https://x.com/LarrySabato/status/2050931830279336198

    Got to say I think that's the case. A lot of people will suffer a looot of pain before they will accept they have made wrong decisions.
    The tricky thing is for those that do break away from a position they tend not to like it being thrown in their face, since the only thing worse than being wrong is someone telling you you were wrong. And so when forced to choose between changing position or doubling down, a lot of people double down.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 58,887
    I still think Burnham's problem is that Starmer is unlikely to survive until he gets elected.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,488
    Notice in the Glyn Valley Hotel.

    'Due to the ongoing conflict in the Gulf we are unable to obtain any oil for our [heating] system.

    We apologise for any inconvenience President Trump has caused you.'

    Not a problem really at this moment with a very temperate spring.

    What's it going to be like if this isn't resolved by September to get supplies in for the Autumn?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,354
    edited May 3
    DavidL said:

    I still think Burnham's problem is that Starmer is unlikely to survive until he gets elected.

    I'm not so sure.

    I think there will be much sound and fury all through next weekend but nothing will materially change.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,794
    Taz said:

    Spencer Hakimian
    @SpencerHakimian
    ·
    2h
    🚨BREAKING: Gas hits $5.00/Gallon in Texas.

    https://x.com/SpencerHakimian/status/2050958722642460704

    What's a reasonable worst-case scenario for the GOP in the midterms if we assume that the elections aren't stolen and the Strait of Hormuz isn't opened?
    Lose the senate and the house.

    The GOP would deserve it.
    Losing the Senate is hard for them to achieve, but here's hoping.

    According to wiki there is the highest number of retiring Senators ever, at 11 (7 Republican and 4 Democrat), which is interesting.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 25,448
    DavidL said:

    I still think Burnham's problem is that Starmer is unlikely to survive until he gets elected.

    That needs at least one person to show some gumption and kick off the contest.

    Anonymous stories in the press don't count.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,123
    ydoethur said:

    Notice in the Glyn Valley Hotel.

    'Due to the ongoing conflict in the Gulf we are unable to obtain any oil for our [heating] system.

    We apologise for any inconvenience President Trump has caused you.'

    Not a problem really at this moment with a very temperate spring.

    What's it going to be like if this isn't resolved by September to get supplies in for the Autumn?

    This Gulf conflict, like COVID, is going to be a perfect get out for any business to claim they cannot meet their obligations.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,794

    Spencer Hakimian
    @SpencerHakimian
    ·
    2h
    🚨BREAKING: Gas hits $5.00/Gallon in Texas.

    https://x.com/SpencerHakimian/status/2050958722642460704

    I feel like a deal will be agreed with Iran pretty soon, so we'll get a lot of "You said President Trump would never be able to get a deal, but he has gotten the best deal in the universe" boosting which will presumably provide enough of a figleaf for 90% of the base, the question mark being on the final 10% responding to ongoing and delayed effects from the conflict.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 6,305
    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    Larry Sabato
    @LarrySabato
    Trump’s base still 37%. Question: Will $5/gallon subtract points? $6/gallon? What’s the break point on inflation, higher food prices?


    Larry Sabato
    @LarrySabato
    ·
    2h
    Looking at the responses, a large majority believe there is NO break point. And if there is one, the situation must be far more dire than today.

    https://x.com/LarrySabato/status/2050931830279336198

    Got to say I think that's the case. A lot of people will suffer a looot of pain before they will accept they have made wrong decisions.
    Trump was - for once - right when he said he could shoot someone in public and his voters would still vote for him.
    He is peeling approval, half a percent here, half a percent there. The mistake, and I made it when the "grab em by the pussy" comment surfaced in 2016, is to think there is one single break point.

    It's exacerbated, of course, by the US being a much closer approximation to a pure 2 party system than the UK has ever been, so swing is primarily people wandering off and losing interest rather than lots of formal switching.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,794
    I like the wikis 5 category of prediction for US seats, which seem to go from toss up, then through tilt, lean, likely, and safe. Tilt and lean seem pretty similar.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,196
    ydoethur said:

    Notice in the Glyn Valley Hotel.

    'Due to the ongoing conflict in the Gulf we are unable to obtain any oil for our [heating] system.

    We apologise for any inconvenience President Trump has caused you.'

    Not a problem really at this moment with a very temperate spring.

    What's it going to be like if this isn't resolved by September to get supplies in for the Autumn?

    The hotel closes. This will be the same for lots of businesses. There would be a very deep recession.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 50,685
    edited May 3

    Larry Sabato
    @LarrySabato
    Trump’s base still 37%. Question: Will $5/gallon subtract points? $6/gallon? What’s the break point on inflation, higher food prices?

    Larry Sabato
    @LarrySabato
    ·
    2h
    Looking at the responses, a large majority believe there is NO break point. And if there is one, the situation must be far more dire than today.

    https://x.com/LarrySabato/status/2050931830279336198

    It's a strange and dark thing, isn't it, the Trump cult. IMO it doesn't lend itself to traditional political punditry explanations.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 29,504
    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    Spencer Hakimian
    @SpencerHakimian
    ·
    2h
    🚨BREAKING: Gas hits $5.00/Gallon in Texas.

    https://x.com/SpencerHakimian/status/2050958722642460704

    What's a reasonable worst-case scenario for the GOP in the midterms if we assume that the elections aren't stolen and the Strait of Hormuz isn't opened?
    Lose the senate and the house.

    The GOP would deserve it.
    Let's consider the Senate seats they could pick up.

    Assuming a hold in Georgia and Michigan, which didn't look certain a year ago (certainly the former).

    Maine looks a certainty.

    Ohio and North Carolina look very possible.

    Texas and Alaska both look realistic if not straightforward.

    If they have an astonishing night they might pick up one of Kansas or Florida and the independent they are backing in Nebraska might pull off a win.

    So in a very best case scenario where on top of everything else Donald Trump is caught publicly masturbating over a photo of Barack Obama or something, they might pick up six seats and a Dem-leaning independent one.

    In a more normal scenario, they should pick up three, maybe four or five.

    If therefore they do any better than that we can fairly safely say no Republican will be in the White House in 2028 without even more substantial vote rigging than they have managed up to now.
    The Dems got hammered in 2010 yet Obama won easily in 2012.

    The GOP got hammered in 1982 yet Reagan won easily in 1984.

    The GOP got hammered in 1974 yet Ford almost won in 1976.

    So it is possible for big shifts to happen but the main requirement is competent government amid an improving world situation.

    The problem for the GOP is that competent government is something we've seen little of from either Trump administration while an improving world situation also looks doubtful.

    And drop the drivel about vote rigging - both sides manipulate the electoral system as much as they can and Trump didn't win because of it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,488
    kle4 said:

    Spencer Hakimian
    @SpencerHakimian
    ·
    2h
    🚨BREAKING: Gas hits $5.00/Gallon in Texas.

    https://x.com/SpencerHakimian/status/2050958722642460704

    I feel like a deal will be agreed with Iran pretty soon, so we'll get a lot of "You said President Trump would never be able to get a deal, but he has gotten the best deal in the universe" boosting which will presumably provide enough of a figleaf for 90% of the base, the question mark being on the final 10% responding to ongoing and delayed effects from the conflict.
    Instinct is Khamanei Jr would do a deal tomorrow if the bribe is big enough, but the deal will be very much in Iran's favour if he does. They have no obvious reason to be nice to America.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,566
    edited May 3
    Damn Brentford and damn Aston Villa for denying us a generational relegation.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 9,625
    edited May 3
    I'm clearly in a minority, but I think Starmer should, and will, hang on for some time yet, and see how things go. I tend to agree with John Major - we shouldn't be getting rid of PMs on a whim because they are unpopular, particularly if they've been in office for only two years, because it leads to greater instability.

    Labour should learn from the Tories' last period in office: burning through four PMs did them no good in the end - quite the opposite. Indeed, they'd probably have done better in the 2024 GE if Theresa May had still been in office.

    Let's see how the land lies next year. If Starmer/Labour are still as unpopular, I wouldn't be surprised if Starmer goes voluntarily. And if he does, I predict he'd clear the way for Burnham to be an MP and throw his hat in the ring, Until then, Burnham's mates should STFU, as should the other contenders.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 5,208

    DavidL said:

    I still think Burnham's problem is that Starmer is unlikely to survive until he gets elected.

    I'm not so sure.

    I think there will be much sound and fury all through next weekend but nothing will materially change.

    It's a bit like WW1. It will only take one to set off a leadership contest. Then the others will have to follow suit and mobilise too.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,794

    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    Spencer Hakimian
    @SpencerHakimian
    ·
    2h
    🚨BREAKING: Gas hits $5.00/Gallon in Texas.

    https://x.com/SpencerHakimian/status/2050958722642460704

    What's a reasonable worst-case scenario for the GOP in the midterms if we assume that the elections aren't stolen and the Strait of Hormuz isn't opened?
    Lose the senate and the house.

    The GOP would deserve it.
    Let's consider the Senate seats they could pick up.

    Assuming a hold in Georgia and Michigan, which didn't look certain a year ago (certainly the former).

    Maine looks a certainty.

    Ohio and North Carolina look very possible.

    Texas and Alaska both look realistic if not straightforward.

    If they have an astonishing night they might pick up one of Kansas or Florida and the independent they are backing in Nebraska might pull off a win.

    So in a very best case scenario where on top of everything else Donald Trump is caught publicly masturbating over a photo of Barack Obama or something, they might pick up six seats and a Dem-leaning independent one.

    In a more normal scenario, they should pick up three, maybe four or five.

    If therefore they do any better than that we can fairly safely say no Republican will be in the White House in 2028 without even more substantial vote rigging than they have managed up to now.
    The Dems got hammered in 2010 yet Obama won easily in 2012.

    The GOP got hammered in 1982 yet Reagan won easily in 1984.

    The GOP got hammered in 1974 yet Ford almost won in 1976.

    So it is possible for big shifts to happen but the main requirement is competent government amid an improving world situation.

    The problem for the GOP is that competent government is something we've seen little of from either Trump administration while an improving world situation also looks doubtful.

    And drop the drivel about vote rigging - both sides manipulate the electoral system as much as they can and Trump didn't win because of it.
    It's not drivel if Trump is threatening to involve himself in elections. Though certainly on gerrymandering they are both at it in very blatant ways.

    He won legitimately, to be sure, but he has also banked a lot of political capital on saying that he was robbed in 2020, and most of the GOP are signed up to that view. A lot of the officials who resisted Trump's pressure to reject outcomes he did not like are no longer in place.

    So being worried about it even if it is not deemed likely does not seen unreasonable.

    I expect to see a lot of spurious legal challenges from both Republicans and Democrats, before and after the elections, because that is what the Trump era has led to.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 9,354

    ydoethur said:

    Andy Burnham is too flaky to be PM.
    Angela Rayner too stupid.
    Ed Miliband too left wing.

    It kind of has to be Streeting, if anyone cares about the country.

    Don't swallow Streeting's own estimation of himself. When looked at with a cold eye he's shown less administrative ability than Rayner or Burnham. There is no reason to think he would suddenly improve as PM.

    However, as he is deeply unpopular with members the point is in all likelihood moot.

    Of your list, Miliband is probably Starmer's likeliest successor, but I am surprised how seldom Cooper is mentioned.
    I wouldn't dream of voting for Streeting (still less Mahmood) and IMHO that's the position of most members, as they are both seen as too right-wing. Ed M would be an interesting choice (and not especially left-wing), and Cooper an OK one, but it seems unlikely that anyone will want to take over with Burnham hovering in the wings and temporarily excluded by a maneouvre. I can see Starmer hanging on despite potentially awful local elections on the basis that a full choice of alternatives isn't available yet and it's too far from the next election - he can probably buy time by hinting that he'll go before then. If things cheer up he'll benefit, and if they don't he can stand down with dignity in a year or two.
    On the contrary, I think for some the fact that Burnham can't stand is why they will want to go for it now, set out their stall and at a minimum get to be PM for a couple of years.

    It will be harder for Burnham to get into parliament if a new leader is selected i would guess.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,354
    Mid term latest:

    Patrick De Haan
    @GasBuddyGuy
    ·
    1h
    BREAKING: Indiana average diesel prices have reached $6/gal and are less than a penny away from surpassing 2022's high of $6.039/gal.

    https://x.com/GasBuddyGuy/status/2050986342729851330
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,488

    I'm clearly in a minority, but I think Starmer should, and will, hang on for some time yet, and see how things go. I tend to agree with John Major - we shouldn't be getting rid of PMs on a whim because they are unpopular, particularly if they've been in office for only two years, because it leads to greater instability.

    Labour should learn from the Tories' last period in office: burning through four PMs did them no good in the end - quite the opposite. Indeed, they'd probably have done better in the 2924 GE if Theresa May had still been in office.

    Let's see how the land lies next year. If Starmer/Labour are still as unpopular, I wouldn't be surprised if Starmer goes voluntarily. And if he does, I predict he'd clear the way for Burnham to be an MP and throw his hat in the ring, Until then, Burnham's mates should STFU, as should the other contenders.

    I think he will. Whether he should is another question.

    The frustrating thing is he seems to have a Sunak like ability to swallow his own bullshit about grand schemes that will sort everything out rather than sorting out the boring shit that would actually improve everyone's everyday lives. Proper regulation of water, gas and electricity. Massive reform of the housing market and tax systems. A hard look at why mainstream schools can't manage SEND children. How are universities are being stuffed with gold on tuition fees and going bust. A lack of proper affordable housing for rent.

    None of this is glamorous and some of it is dead easy to sort, but his government's solutions are either non existent or actively making things worse.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,230
    ydoethur said:

    Notice in the Glyn Valley Hotel.

    'Due to the ongoing conflict in the Gulf we are unable to obtain any oil for our [heating] system.

    We apologise for any inconvenience President Trump has caused you.'

    Not a problem really at this moment with a very temperate spring.

    What's it going to be like if this isn't resolved by September to get supplies in for the Autumn?

    Do they still have stocks of Porkie Pies?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,794

    Andy Burnham is too flaky to be PM.
    Angela Rayner too stupid.
    Ed Miliband too left wing.

    It kind of has to be Streeting, if anyone cares about the country.

    Let's say you also grew up in poverty on a council estate, as a child looking after your mother who had bipolar disorder and couldn't read, and ended up by leaving school at 16 to raise a child as a teenage parent.

    If, despite all those handicaps from your upbringing, somehow 25 or so years later you found yourself as strong favourite to be the next PM of the UK, the last thing I would think of describing you as is "stupid".
    I don't really know what that view is based on. She doesn't seem to be especially gaffe prone, policy beliefs are hardly an indication since politicians which shift on that anyway, and we all know formal education is not the be all and end all of intellect.

    Sure, some of her people did not help her case with the tax stuff by acting as though she would not have access to good legal advice if and when she wanted it, but whilst I'm sure she must have done some dumb things in her career, it wouldn't be my first thought.

    Gotta save that for the likes of Andrew Bridgen.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,488

    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    Spencer Hakimian
    @SpencerHakimian
    ·
    2h
    🚨BREAKING: Gas hits $5.00/Gallon in Texas.

    https://x.com/SpencerHakimian/status/2050958722642460704

    What's a reasonable worst-case scenario for the GOP in the midterms if we assume that the elections aren't stolen and the Strait of Hormuz isn't opened?
    Lose the senate and the house.

    The GOP would deserve it.
    Let's consider the Senate seats they could pick up.

    Assuming a hold in Georgia and Michigan, which didn't look certain a year ago (certainly the former).

    Maine looks a certainty.

    Ohio and North Carolina look very possible.

    Texas and Alaska both look realistic if not straightforward.

    If they have an astonishing night they might pick up one of Kansas or Florida and the independent they are backing in Nebraska might pull off a win.

    So in a very best case scenario where on top of everything else Donald Trump is caught publicly masturbating over a photo of Barack Obama or something, they might pick up six seats and a Dem-leaning independent one.

    In a more normal scenario, they should pick up three, maybe four or five.

    If therefore they do any better than that we can fairly safely say no Republican will be in the White House in 2028 without even more substantial vote rigging than they have managed up to now.
    The Dems got hammered in 2010 yet Obama won easily in 2012.

    The GOP got hammered in 1982 yet Reagan won easily in 1984.

    The GOP got hammered in 1974 yet Ford almost won in 1976.

    So it is possible for big shifts to happen but the main requirement is competent government amid an improving world situation.

    The problem for the GOP is that competent government is something we've seen little of from either Trump administration while an improving world situation also looks doubtful.

    And drop the drivel about vote rigging - both sides manipulate the electoral system as much as they can and Trump didn't win because of it.
    That's an irregular verb, isn't it? I tell home truths, he is exaggerating, you talk drivel.

    On that basis, I will stop telling home truths about vote rigging when you stop talking drivel about Trump's attempted coup in 2020.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 19,654
    ydoethur said:

    Notice in the Glyn Valley Hotel.

    'Due to the ongoing conflict in the Gulf we are unable to obtain any oil for our [heating] system.

    We apologise for any inconvenience President Trump has caused you.'

    Not a problem really at this moment with a very temperate spring.

    What's it going to be like if this isn't resolved by September to get supplies in for the Autumn?

    No heating is OK at a pinch this time of year, but no hot water is grim.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,794
    rkrkrk said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy Burnham is too flaky to be PM.
    Angela Rayner too stupid.
    Ed Miliband too left wing.

    It kind of has to be Streeting, if anyone cares about the country.

    Don't swallow Streeting's own estimation of himself. When looked at with a cold eye he's shown less administrative ability than Rayner or Burnham. There is no reason to think he would suddenly improve as PM.

    However, as he is deeply unpopular with members the point is in all likelihood moot.

    Of your list, Miliband is probably Starmer's likeliest successor, but I am surprised how seldom Cooper is mentioned.
    I wouldn't dream of voting for Streeting (still less Mahmood) and IMHO that's the position of most members, as they are both seen as too right-wing. Ed M would be an interesting choice (and not especially left-wing), and Cooper an OK one, but it seems unlikely that anyone will want to take over with Burnham hovering in the wings and temporarily excluded by a maneouvre. I can see Starmer hanging on despite potentially awful local elections on the basis that a full choice of alternatives isn't available yet and it's too far from the next election - he can probably buy time by hinting that he'll go before then. If things cheer up he'll benefit, and if they don't he can stand down with dignity in a year or two.
    On the contrary, I think for some the fact that Burnham can't stand is why they will want to go for it now, set out their stall and at a minimum get to be PM for a couple of years.

    It will be harder for Burnham to get into parliament if a new leader is selected i would guess.
    Oh, it may be easier because they will feel safe from challenge, since you can maybe get away with one leader switch in a parliament, but more than that just destroys credibility entirely.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 22,030
    Everyone is going to hate Villa
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,488
    FF43 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Notice in the Glyn Valley Hotel.

    'Due to the ongoing conflict in the Gulf we are unable to obtain any oil for our [heating] system.

    We apologise for any inconvenience President Trump has caused you.'

    Not a problem really at this moment with a very temperate spring.

    What's it going to be like if this isn't resolved by September to get supplies in for the Autumn?

    No heating is OK at a pinch this time of year, but no hot water is grim.
    They have hot water, so that is OK. They have electric showers.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,354

    Scott MacFarlane
    @MacFarlaneNews

    Exactly 6 months til midterm elections.

    https://x.com/MacFarlaneNews/status/2050915578756350360
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,794

    I'm clearly in a minority, but I think Starmer should, and will, hang on for some time yet, and see how things go. I tend to agree with John Major - we shouldn't be getting rid of PMs on a whim because they are unpopular, particularly if they've been in office for only two years, because it leads to greater instability.

    Labour should learn from the Tories' last period in office: burning through four PMs did them no good in the end - quite the opposite. Indeed, they'd probably have done better in the 2024 GE if Theresa May had still been in office.

    Let's see how the land lies next year. If Starmer/Labour are still as unpopular, I wouldn't be surprised if Starmer goes voluntarily. And if he does, I predict he'd clear the way for Burnham to be an MP and throw his hat in the ring, Until then, Burnham's mates should STFU, as should the other contenders.

    I think Starmer should stick around. It is going to be a bad night but parties and leaders need to learn to show some fight, not fold at what is admittedly sustained pressure. Sure, they may not be able to overcome it, but the instability of switching out every 2 years when government plans and impacts take that long at least to come to fruition is very high - you'd never get out of 'promise everything' campaign mode.

    (I know 2025 was not great either)
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,196
    kle4 said:

    Spencer Hakimian
    @SpencerHakimian
    ·
    2h
    🚨BREAKING: Gas hits $5.00/Gallon in Texas.

    https://x.com/SpencerHakimian/status/2050958722642460704

    I feel like a deal will be agreed with Iran pretty soon, so we'll get a lot of "You said President Trump would never be able to get a deal, but he has gotten the best deal in the universe" boosting which will presumably provide enough of a figleaf for 90% of the base, the question mark being on the final 10% responding to ongoing and delayed effects from the conflict.
    How soon is pretty soon?

    I've been expecting a deal within ~10 days since this thing started at the end of February. It's now 25 days since the ceasefire started and the Strait still isn't open.

    Obviously with Trump he doesn't have any policy principles, so there's always a potential that he will u-turn at any moment with no warning, but I'm very surprised at just how long this has gone on for already. Just over nine weeks now.

    What if the Strait doesn't reopen?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,488
    carnforth said:

    ydoethur said:

    Notice in the Glyn Valley Hotel.

    'Due to the ongoing conflict in the Gulf we are unable to obtain any oil for our [heating] system.

    We apologise for any inconvenience President Trump has caused you.'

    Not a problem really at this moment with a very temperate spring.

    What's it going to be like if this isn't resolved by September to get supplies in for the Autumn?

    Do they still have stocks of Porkie Pies?
    Don't know, I had the macaroni cheese.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,123

    Everyone is going to hate Villa

    I despised them before today.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,566
    Thoughts and prayers for Arsenal fans next week as they play West Ham.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,794

    kle4 said:

    Spencer Hakimian
    @SpencerHakimian
    ·
    2h
    🚨BREAKING: Gas hits $5.00/Gallon in Texas.

    https://x.com/SpencerHakimian/status/2050958722642460704

    I feel like a deal will be agreed with Iran pretty soon, so we'll get a lot of "You said President Trump would never be able to get a deal, but he has gotten the best deal in the universe" boosting which will presumably provide enough of a figleaf for 90% of the base, the question mark being on the final 10% responding to ongoing and delayed effects from the conflict.
    How soon is pretty soon?

    I've been expecting a deal within ~10 days since this thing started at the end of February. It's now 25 days since the ceasefire started and the Strait still isn't open.

    Obviously with Trump he doesn't have any policy principles, so there's always a potential that he will u-turn at any moment with no warning, but I'm very surprised at just how long this has gone on for already. Just over nine weeks now.

    What if the Strait doesn't reopen?
    Trump has been saying Iran has been begging for a deal for ages, and since nothing has happened that cannot really be trusted, but I see the latest headline is Iran saying the US has 'responded' to it's own proposal, which whilst no guarantee (since Iran are big liars too), that feels like something new.

    So based on nothing but vibes (since I have no means to make a sophisticated calculation), I am going to say it might even be this week or next, since end of the month appears to be the absolutely critical next moment if things persist.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,488

    Andy Burnham is too flaky to be PM.
    Angela Rayner too stupid.
    Ed Miliband too left wing.

    It kind of has to be Streeting, if anyone cares about the country.

    Let's say you also grew up in poverty on a council estate, as a child looking after your mother who had bipolar disorder and couldn't read, and ended up by leaving school at 16 to raise a child as a teenage parent.

    If, despite all those handicaps from your upbringing, somehow 25 or so years later you found yourself as strong favourite to be the next PM of the UK, the last thing I would think of describing you as is "stupid".
    Angela Rayner isn't stupid. What she is, I would say, is rather complacent.

    So, when it came to being Shadow EdSec she had some really great ideas on lifelong learning. And I mean really good. They should be being implemented right now (although because Phillipson hates her they're not).

    But her ideas on primary and secondary were considerably worse than Gove's (yes, I mean that) and she was incredibly resistant to hearing well meaning advice from those who could have helped her refine them (again, very Gove). My union members deeply respected her rising to the top from the background she had but boy did she frustrate them on that basis.

    I think we also saw that at housing. Good where she already knew - not willing to learn or listen when she wasn't.

    That's not necessarily a sign of stupidity but it's definitely something that would scare the shit out of me if she became PM.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 81,143
    Taz said:

    Everyone is going to hate Villa

    I despised them before today.
    If I had the wings of a sparrow
    And I had the arse of a crow
    I'm fly over Villa tommorow
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,778

    Thoughts and prayers for Arsenal fans next week as they play West Ham.

    Lady Tottington's Hotspurs are smashing Villa over the Holt End Stand.

    Spurs are staying up.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,794
    edited May 3
    ydoethur said:

    Andy Burnham is too flaky to be PM.
    Angela Rayner too stupid.
    Ed Miliband too left wing.

    It kind of has to be Streeting, if anyone cares about the country.

    Let's say you also grew up in poverty on a council estate, as a child looking after your mother who had bipolar disorder and couldn't read, and ended up by leaving school at 16 to raise a child as a teenage parent.

    If, despite all those handicaps from your upbringing, somehow 25 or so years later you found yourself as strong favourite to be the next PM of the UK, the last thing I would think of describing you as is "stupid".
    Angela Rayner isn't stupid. What she is, I would say, is rather complacent.

    So, when it came to being Shadow EdSec she had some really great ideas on lifelong learning. And I mean really good. They should be being implemented right now (although because Phillipson hates her they're not).

    But her ideas on primary and secondary were considerably worse than Gove's (yes, I mean that) and she was incredibly resistant to hearing well meaning advice from those who could have helped her refine them (again, very Gove). My union members deeply respected her rising to the top from the background she had but boy did she frustrate them on that basis.

    I think we also saw that at housing. Good where she already knew - not willing to learn or listen when she wasn't.

    That's not necessarily a sign of stupidity but it's definitely something that would scare the shit out of me if she became PM.
    She must be very driven and confident to succeed despite disadvantages most in parliament do not face. That is a useful quality to have in a political leader.

    The downside is the very same quality will lead to stubborness and unwillingness to listen. So many politicians see any resistance to their plans as an attack, even when it is from raising legitimate resourcing and legal issues.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 22,860
    kle4 said:

    I'm clearly in a minority, but I think Starmer should, and will, hang on for some time yet, and see how things go. I tend to agree with John Major - we shouldn't be getting rid of PMs on a whim because they are unpopular, particularly if they've been in office for only two years, because it leads to greater instability.

    Labour should learn from the Tories' last period in office: burning through four PMs did them no good in the end - quite the opposite. Indeed, they'd probably have done better in the 2024 GE if Theresa May had still been in office.

    Let's see how the land lies next year. If Starmer/Labour are still as unpopular, I wouldn't be surprised if Starmer goes voluntarily. And if he does, I predict he'd clear the way for Burnham to be an MP and throw his hat in the ring, Until then, Burnham's mates should STFU, as should the other contenders.

    I think Starmer should stick around. It is going to be a bad night but parties and leaders need to learn to show some fight, not fold at what is admittedly sustained pressure. Sure, they may not be able to overcome it, but the instability of switching out every 2 years when government plans and impacts take that long at least to come to fruition is very high - you'd never get out of 'promise everything' campaign mode.

    (I know 2025 was not great either)
    Two other things to consider.

    First, the current shortlist to replace Starmer is pretty mediocre. Burnham especially is behaving like a high-pressure salesman for a rubbish product. Give it a year, and the shortlist might well have some more impressive names on it.

    Second, there's still quite a lot of radioactive waste for this government to swallow. Might as well leave that to Starmer.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,488
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy Burnham is too flaky to be PM.
    Angela Rayner too stupid.
    Ed Miliband too left wing.

    It kind of has to be Streeting, if anyone cares about the country.

    Let's say you also grew up in poverty on a council estate, as a child looking after your mother who had bipolar disorder and couldn't read, and ended up by leaving school at 16 to raise a child as a teenage parent.

    If, despite all those handicaps from your upbringing, somehow 25 or so years later you found yourself as strong favourite to be the next PM of the UK, the last thing I would think of describing you as is "stupid".
    Angela Rayner isn't stupid. What she is, I would say, is rather complacent.

    So, when it came to being Shadow EdSec she had some really great ideas on lifelong learning. And I mean really good. They should be being implemented right now (although because Phillipson hates her they're not).

    But her ideas on primary and secondary were considerably worse than Gove's (yes, I mean that) and she was incredibly resistant to hearing well meaning advice from those who could have helped her refine them (again, very Gove). My union members deeply respected her rising to the top from the background she had but boy did she frustrate them on that basis.

    I think we also saw that at housing. Good where she already knew - not willing to learn or listen when she wasn't.

    That's not necessarily a sign of stupidity but it's definitely something that would scare the shit out of me if she became PM.
    She must be very driven and confident to succeed despite disadvantages most in parliament do not face. That is a useful quality to have in a political leader.

    The downside is the very same quality will lead to stubborness and unwillingness to listen. So many politicians see any resistance to their plans as an attack, even when it is from raising legitimate resourcing and legal issues.
    Thatcher overcome many disadvantages - although not nearly as many as Rayner - to lead her party. And she could be unbelievably arrogant and stubborn.

    But - and I am no fan of hers - it was noted even by her critics that when a well-argued case she had not previously agreed with was put to her, she was willing to be persuaded.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,623
    edited May 3
    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    Larry Sabato
    @LarrySabato
    Trump’s base still 37%. Question: Will $5/gallon subtract points? $6/gallon? What’s the break point on inflation, higher food prices?


    Larry Sabato
    @LarrySabato
    ·
    2h
    Looking at the responses, a large majority believe there is NO break point. And if there is one, the situation must be far more dire than today.

    https://x.com/LarrySabato/status/2050931830279336198

    Got to say I think that's the case. A lot of people will suffer a looot of pain before they will accept they have made wrong decisions.
    Trump was - for once - right when he said he could shoot someone in public and his voters would still vote for him.
    He could probably shoot them, and if it weren't fatal, they'd still vote for him.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 20,947
    FPT…
    theProle said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Good video this time from Kemi (‘s research team)

    Why did Farage run scared from news interviews today?

    It’s because there’s something fishy about the £5 million he took. And he knows it.

    He’s normally very happy to shout from a TV studio -as long as he controls the terms.

    The truth is that cash wasn’t for Reform.
    Watch👇


    https://x.com/kemibadenoch/status/2050897032928219324?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Hasn't he said the cash wasn't for Reform? I thought the whole thing is being explained as a personal gift to Farage "outside politics" that's why he's saying it wasn't declared.
    Yes, which makes the phrasing in Kemi's tweet a bit odd. Reform's defence about non-disclosure is precisely that the cash wasn't for Reform (not that this "personal gift" defence seems likely to work given the requirements of disclosure).

    However, none of that matters. It stinks of shit. If you're quibbling over the details, you've already lost. This is an area of weakness for Farage. We've seen polling before that the message that Farage is in the pocket of rich donors cuts through strongly. He's looking ever more like Trump, and looking like Trump doesn't win you votes any more.

    Ongoing investigations also means the story will run and run.
    It stinks like all of Sir Keir’s mealy mouthed excuses for the things he looked bang to rights for I’m afraid, and just reminds me of American politics, which I find quite sleazy.
    Isn't there a difference?

    SKS sanctimoniously whinged about everything and anything until elected, then turns out to be as bad as the rest of them. There is little voters loathe so much as a hypocrite. He's also not helped his cause by playing his rather poor hand extremely badly as PM.

    Farage has never claimed to be whiter than white. His appeal is that he might actually do some of the stuff everyone knows needs doing, but the other political parties can't or won't do, like stopping the boats. He's therefore not judged on the "whiteness" scale, but almost entirely on the "will he actually do the necessary stuff" scale.

    Is his £5mil a bit dodgy? Probably. Is it going to change a single vote? Probably not. Voters don't actually want a sanctimonious prig for PM, they just want one who is effective. Boris showed that, it was just unfortunate he failed fairly badly on the being effective bit.
    I’m not convinced by that. We’ve discussed polling before that showed that a message that Farage is in the pocket of big donors was effective. The point, perhaps, is whether Farage is going to “do the necessary stuff” for *you*, the voter, or whether he’s just another tool of *them*. If he’d fiddled his taxes, I can see your line of reasoning working maybe, but this isn’t about Farage enriching himself, it’s about Farage being owned by someone else.

    Most things don’t shift many votes. PB trumpets some catastrophe or debacle every other week, most of which sink without a trace. The voters don’t give a shit about Diego Garcia, for example. But if I was going to pick something that might cut through, this would be my pick from events in April.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 9,354
    kle4 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy Burnham is too flaky to be PM.
    Angela Rayner too stupid.
    Ed Miliband too left wing.

    It kind of has to be Streeting, if anyone cares about the country.

    Don't swallow Streeting's own estimation of himself. When looked at with a cold eye he's shown less administrative ability than Rayner or Burnham. There is no reason to think he would suddenly improve as PM.

    However, as he is deeply unpopular with members the point is in all likelihood moot.

    Of your list, Miliband is probably Starmer's likeliest successor, but I am surprised how seldom Cooper is mentioned.
    I wouldn't dream of voting for Streeting (still less Mahmood) and IMHO that's the position of most members, as they are both seen as too right-wing. Ed M would be an interesting choice (and not especially left-wing), and Cooper an OK one, but it seems unlikely that anyone will want to take over with Burnham hovering in the wings and temporarily excluded by a maneouvre. I can see Starmer hanging on despite potentially awful local elections on the basis that a full choice of alternatives isn't available yet and it's too far from the next election - he can probably buy time by hinting that he'll go before then. If things cheer up he'll benefit, and if they don't he can stand down with dignity in a year or two.
    On the contrary, I think for some the fact that Burnham can't stand is why they will want to go for it now, set out their stall and at a minimum get to be PM for a couple of years.

    It will be harder for Burnham to get into parliament if a new leader is selected i would guess.
    Oh, it may be easier because they will feel safe from challenge, since you can maybe get away with one leader switch in a parliament, but more than that just destroys credibility entirely.
    Burnham is only coming back to be leader.
    If you let him into parliament, you can guarantee he will challenge you at some point.

    There's an argument Starmer should let him back in because its probably good for labour/the country to give Burhham a chance to run. But if Labour pick someone else there's no reason for them to help him destabilise everything.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,488
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    Larry Sabato
    @LarrySabato
    Trump’s base still 37%. Question: Will $5/gallon subtract points? $6/gallon? What’s the break point on inflation, higher food prices?


    Larry Sabato
    @LarrySabato
    ·
    2h
    Looking at the responses, a large majority believe there is NO break point. And if there is one, the situation must be far more dire than today.

    https://x.com/LarrySabato/status/2050931830279336198

    Got to say I think that's the case. A lot of people will suffer a looot of pain before they will accept they have made wrong decisions.
    Trump was - for once - right when he said he could shoot someone in public and his voters would still vote for him.
    He could probably shoot them, and if it weren't fatal, they'd still vote for him.
    They would preserve the bullet as a precious relic.

    'Donald Trump literally changed my life. Before he shot me, I was trailer trash. Now, I make millions going on Fox News and saying how wonderful he is.'
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,887

    FPT…

    theProle said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Good video this time from Kemi (‘s research team)

    Why did Farage run scared from news interviews today?

    It’s because there’s something fishy about the £5 million he took. And he knows it.

    He’s normally very happy to shout from a TV studio -as long as he controls the terms.

    The truth is that cash wasn’t for Reform.
    Watch👇


    https://x.com/kemibadenoch/status/2050897032928219324?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Hasn't he said the cash wasn't for Reform? I thought the whole thing is being explained as a personal gift to Farage "outside politics" that's why he's saying it wasn't declared.
    Yes, which makes the phrasing in Kemi's tweet a bit odd. Reform's defence about non-disclosure is precisely that the cash wasn't for Reform (not that this "personal gift" defence seems likely to work given the requirements of disclosure).

    However, none of that matters. It stinks of shit. If you're quibbling over the details, you've already lost. This is an area of weakness for Farage. We've seen polling before that the message that Farage is in the pocket of rich donors cuts through strongly. He's looking ever more like Trump, and looking like Trump doesn't win you votes any more.

    Ongoing investigations also means the story will run and run.
    It stinks like all of Sir Keir’s mealy mouthed excuses for the things he looked bang to rights for I’m afraid, and just reminds me of American politics, which I find quite sleazy.
    Isn't there a difference?

    SKS sanctimoniously whinged about everything and anything until elected, then turns out to be as bad as the rest of them. There is little voters loathe so much as a hypocrite. He's also not helped his cause by playing his rather poor hand extremely badly as PM.

    Farage has never claimed to be whiter than white. His appeal is that he might actually do some of the stuff everyone knows needs doing, but the other political parties can't or won't do, like stopping the boats. He's therefore not judged on the "whiteness" scale, but almost entirely on the "will he actually do the necessary stuff" scale.

    Is his £5mil a bit dodgy? Probably. Is it going to change a single vote? Probably not. Voters don't actually want a sanctimonious prig for PM, they just want one who is effective. Boris showed that, it was just unfortunate he failed fairly badly on the being effective bit.
    I’m not convinced by that. We’ve discussed polling before that showed that a message that Farage is in the pocket of big donors was effective. The point, perhaps, is whether Farage is going to “do the necessary stuff” for *you*, the voter, or whether he’s just another tool of *them*. If he’d fiddled his taxes, I can see your line of reasoning working maybe, but this isn’t about Farage enriching himself, it’s about Farage being owned by someone else.

    Most things don’t shift many votes. PB trumpets some catastrophe or debacle every other week, most of which sink without a trace. The voters don’t give a shit about Diego Garcia, for example. But if I was going to pick something that might cut through, this would be my pick from events in April.
    It won’t.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,778
    Meanwhile on BBC2, for those watching in black and white, Denis Taylor is talking shite.

    Thank goodness for Ken Doherty.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 20,947
    kinabalu said:

    Larry Sabato
    @LarrySabato
    Trump’s base still 37%. Question: Will $5/gallon subtract points? $6/gallon? What’s the break point on inflation, higher food prices?

    Larry Sabato
    @LarrySabato
    ·
    2h
    Looking at the responses, a large majority believe there is NO break point. And if there is one, the situation must be far more dire than today.

    https://x.com/LarrySabato/status/2050931830279336198

    It's a strange and dark thing, isn't it, the Trump cult. IMO it doesn't lend itself to traditional political punditry explanations.
    But it has shrunk a lot. Those disapproval ratings are sky high. He’s lost people like MTG.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 20,947

    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    Spencer Hakimian
    @SpencerHakimian
    ·
    2h
    🚨BREAKING: Gas hits $5.00/Gallon in Texas.

    https://x.com/SpencerHakimian/status/2050958722642460704

    What's a reasonable worst-case scenario for the GOP in the midterms if we assume that the elections aren't stolen and the Strait of Hormuz isn't opened?
    Lose the senate and the house.

    The GOP would deserve it.
    Let's consider the Senate seats they could pick up.

    Assuming a hold in Georgia and Michigan, which didn't look certain a year ago (certainly the former).

    Maine looks a certainty.

    Ohio and North Carolina look very possible.

    Texas and Alaska both look realistic if not straightforward.

    If they have an astonishing night they might pick up one of Kansas or Florida and the independent they are backing in Nebraska might pull off a win.

    So in a very best case scenario where on top of everything else Donald Trump is caught publicly masturbating over a photo of Barack Obama or something, they might pick up six seats and a Dem-leaning independent one.

    In a more normal scenario, they should pick up three, maybe four or five.

    If therefore they do any better than that we can fairly safely say no Republican will be in the White House in 2028 without even more substantial vote rigging than they have managed up to now.
    The Dems got hammered in 2010 yet Obama won easily in 2012.

    The GOP got hammered in 1982 yet Reagan won easily in 1984.

    The GOP got hammered in 1974 yet Ford almost won in 1976.

    So it is possible for big shifts to happen but the main requirement is competent government amid an improving world situation.

    The problem for the GOP is that competent government is something we've seen little of from either Trump administration while an improving world situation also looks doubtful.

    And drop the drivel about vote rigging - both sides manipulate the electoral system as much as they can and Trump didn't win because of it.
    I think you’re at least a year late for this both-sides-ism drivel.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,488

    Meanwhile on BBC2, for those watching in black and white, Denis Taylor is talking shite.

    Thank goodness for Ken Doherty.

    At least there is no John Virgo any more.

    I'm a bit sad Alan McManus wasn't invited back to replace him. I always thought he was very good.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,623
    ydoethur said:

    Andy Burnham is too flaky to be PM.
    Angela Rayner too stupid.
    Ed Miliband too left wing.

    It kind of has to be Streeting, if anyone cares about the country.

    Let's say you also grew up in poverty on a council estate, as a child looking after your mother who had bipolar disorder and couldn't read, and ended up by leaving school at 16 to raise a child as a teenage parent.

    If, despite all those handicaps from your upbringing, somehow 25 or so years later you found yourself as strong favourite to be the next PM of the UK, the last thing I would think of describing you as is "stupid".
    Angela Rayner isn't stupid. What she is, I would say, is rather complacent.

    So, when it came to being Shadow EdSec she had some really great ideas on lifelong learning. And I mean really good. They should be being implemented right now (although because Phillipson hates her they're not).

    But her ideas on primary and secondary were considerably worse than Gove's (yes, I mean that) and she was incredibly resistant to hearing well meaning advice from those who could have helped her refine them (again, very Gove). My union members deeply respected her rising to the top from the background she had but boy did she frustrate them on that basis.

    I think we also saw that at housing. Good where she already knew - not willing to learn or listen when she wasn't.

    That's not necessarily a sign of stupidity but it's definitely something that would scare the shit out of me if she became PM.
    Acute analysis.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,196

    I'm clearly in a minority, but I think Starmer should, and will, hang on for some time yet, and see how things go. I tend to agree with John Major - we shouldn't be getting rid of PMs on a whim because they are unpopular, particularly if they've been in office for only two years, because it leads to greater instability.

    Labour should learn from the Tories' last period in office: burning through four PMs did them no good in the end - quite the opposite. Indeed, they'd probably have done better in the 2024 GE if Theresa May had still been in office.

    Let's see how the land lies next year. If Starmer/Labour are still as unpopular, I wouldn't be surprised if Starmer goes voluntarily. And if he does, I predict he'd clear the way for Burnham to be an MP and throw his hat in the ring, Until then, Burnham's mates should STFU, as should the other contenders.

    In terms of the Tories I think the rate at which they went through PMs was partly a function of the political difficulties Europe caused them and partly a function of them continually choosing unstable people for the job.

    So Cameron left because he lost the referendum and couldn't credibly lead the country out of the EU. May was replaced because she was incapable of bridging the divisions in her party over Europe. Johnson was forced out because his party couldn't tolerate being forced to lie on his behalf. Truss was forced out to prevent her from driving the economy off a cliff.

    I don't see how any of those changes of PM could have been avoided, given the situation with Brexit and the personal failings of the individuals involved.

    With Starmer it's a little bit different. There isn't a major political issue - like Brexit or the poll tax - which demands his removal. I do think there's a huge void in government where a motive purpose ought to be, and if a replacement PM can provide that impetus I think it would make the change worthwhile.

    I also think the number of senior staff that Starmer has been forced to dispense with speaks poorly of him, and it is corrosive if the confidence that people need to have in a leader.

    The important thing is who the new PM is? It's very easy to get that wrong.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,123
    Pulpstar said:

    Taz said:

    Everyone is going to hate Villa

    I despised them before today.
    If I had the wings of a sparrow
    And I had the arse of a crow
    I'm fly over Villa tommorow
    This is a whimsical little ditty I’ve sang more than once. I suspect our old mate @Brixian59 has too

    Shit on the Villa,
    Shit on the Villa tonight!
    Shit on the Villa,
    Shit on the Villa tonight!
    Shit on the Villa,
    Shit on the Villa tonight!
    Shit on the Villa,
    Coz they’re a load of shite
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,488
    Should we now refer to being beaten by a sensational potter as a Wulloping?
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,123

    Meanwhile on BBC2, for those watching in black and white, Denis Taylor is talking shite.

    Because he wears these goggles ?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 29,504
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    Spencer Hakimian
    @SpencerHakimian
    ·
    2h
    🚨BREAKING: Gas hits $5.00/Gallon in Texas.

    https://x.com/SpencerHakimian/status/2050958722642460704

    What's a reasonable worst-case scenario for the GOP in the midterms if we assume that the elections aren't stolen and the Strait of Hormuz isn't opened?
    Lose the senate and the house.

    The GOP would deserve it.
    Let's consider the Senate seats they could pick up.

    Assuming a hold in Georgia and Michigan, which didn't look certain a year ago (certainly the former).

    Maine looks a certainty.

    Ohio and North Carolina look very possible.

    Texas and Alaska both look realistic if not straightforward.

    If they have an astonishing night they might pick up one of Kansas or Florida and the independent they are backing in Nebraska might pull off a win.

    So in a very best case scenario where on top of everything else Donald Trump is caught publicly masturbating over a photo of Barack Obama or something, they might pick up six seats and a Dem-leaning independent one.

    In a more normal scenario, they should pick up three, maybe four or five.

    If therefore they do any better than that we can fairly safely say no Republican will be in the White House in 2028 without even more substantial vote rigging than they have managed up to now.
    The Dems got hammered in 2010 yet Obama won easily in 2012.

    The GOP got hammered in 1982 yet Reagan won easily in 1984.

    The GOP got hammered in 1974 yet Ford almost won in 1976.

    So it is possible for big shifts to happen but the main requirement is competent government amid an improving world situation.

    The problem for the GOP is that competent government is something we've seen little of from either Trump administration while an improving world situation also looks doubtful.

    And drop the drivel about vote rigging - both sides manipulate the electoral system as much as they can and Trump didn't win because of it.
    That's an irregular verb, isn't it? I tell home truths, he is exaggerating, you talk drivel.

    On that basis, I will stop telling home truths about vote rigging when you stop talking drivel about Trump's attempted coup in 2020.
    And what drivel have I ever said about Trump's attempted coup ?

    You will not be able to answer that question because I haven't said any drivel about Trump's attempted coup.

    Unless that is you think that saying Trump attempted to overturn a fair election result through legal manipulations backed up by encouraging street thuggery is drivel.

    Whereas, sadly, it seems that you would prefer to retreat into comforting fictions rather than attempting to understand why Trump won. Which is especially sad from someone with an academic background,

    Still I'll leave you to continue waving the pompoms.

    Altogether now with yodders:

    "Our vote rigging good, their vote rigging bad."

    I'll be the one at the back, shaking my head at both sides and wishing we could have some competent government from somebody for the USA and world as a whole.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,794

    I'm clearly in a minority, but I think Starmer should, and will, hang on for some time yet, and see how things go. I tend to agree with John Major - we shouldn't be getting rid of PMs on a whim because they are unpopular, particularly if they've been in office for only two years, because it leads to greater instability.

    Labour should learn from the Tories' last period in office: burning through four PMs did them no good in the end - quite the opposite. Indeed, they'd probably have done better in the 2024 GE if Theresa May had still been in office.

    Let's see how the land lies next year. If Starmer/Labour are still as unpopular, I wouldn't be surprised if Starmer goes voluntarily. And if he does, I predict he'd clear the way for Burnham to be an MP and throw his hat in the ring, Until then, Burnham's mates should STFU, as should the other contenders.

    In terms of the Tories I think the rate at which they went through PMs was partly a function of the political difficulties Europe caused them and partly a function of them continually choosing unstable people for the job.

    So Cameron left because he lost the referendum and couldn't credibly lead the country out of the EU. May was replaced because she was incapable of bridging the divisions in her party over Europe. Johnson was forced out because his party couldn't tolerate being forced to lie on his behalf. Truss was forced out to prevent her from driving the economy off a cliff.

    I don't see how any of those changes of PM could have been avoided, given the situation with Brexit and the personal failings of the individuals involved.
    Possibly so, though that there were elections within a year of May and Boris taking up office made the switches easier. Even if in May's case it was not necessarily predicted that would happen, I feel like it was clear enough reset in each case - the new Brexit era in each case.

    Whereas with Boris-Truss-Sunak the issue was Boris was a big fat liar, so replacing with anyone as a policy reset was harder, and that and the rapid change to Sunak ephasised how much it was just Tory party personalities which were at issue.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,887
    Taz said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Taz said:

    Everyone is going to hate Villa

    I despised them before today.
    If I had the wings of a sparrow
    And I had the arse of a crow
    I'm fly over Villa tommorow
    This is a whimsical little ditty I’ve sang more than once. I suspect our old mate @Brixian59 has too

    Shit on the Villa,
    Shit on the Villa tonight!
    Shit on the Villa,
    Shit on the Villa tonight!
    Shit on the Villa,
    Shit on the Villa tonight!
    Shit on the Villa,
    Coz they’re a load of shite
    Come on the Yids!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 66,576

    ydoethur said:

    Andy Burnham is too flaky to be PM.
    Angela Rayner too stupid.
    Ed Miliband too left wing.

    It kind of has to be Streeting, if anyone cares about the country.

    Don't swallow Streeting's own estimation of himself. When looked at with a cold eye he's shown less administrative ability than Rayner or Burnham. There is no reason to think he would suddenly improve as PM.

    However, as he is deeply unpopular with members the point is in all likelihood moot.

    Of your list, Miliband is probably Starmer's likeliest successor, but I am surprised how seldom Cooper is mentioned.
    Agree with you on Cooper. If Labour need a leader in a hurry she ticks a lot of boxes, not least being a woman (can Labour really have yet another white male leader?), not undermining the party through over-ambition, and holding a senior position in cabinet. She would be much less divisive than Burnham or Streeting, hasn't already lost an election as leader (Miliband), nor had to resign due to her finances. Seems a pretty safe choice insofar as there could be said to be one.

    Downside is that she may just end up as Starmer 2: uncharismatic place-holder.
    Not might, would.
    Why on earth do we keep believing that a premiership might unlock hidden depths?

    Cooper has done nothing, said nothing, and achieved nothing during 20 years in the public eye.
    She's a Labour Theresa May.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,887

    ydoethur said:

    Andy Burnham is too flaky to be PM.
    Angela Rayner too stupid.
    Ed Miliband too left wing.

    It kind of has to be Streeting, if anyone cares about the country.

    Don't swallow Streeting's own estimation of himself. When looked at with a cold eye he's shown less administrative ability than Rayner or Burnham. There is no reason to think he would suddenly improve as PM.

    However, as he is deeply unpopular with members the point is in all likelihood moot.

    Of your list, Miliband is probably Starmer's likeliest successor, but I am surprised how seldom Cooper is mentioned.
    Agree with you on Cooper. If Labour need a leader in a hurry she ticks a lot of boxes, not least being a woman (can Labour really have yet another white male leader?), not undermining the party through over-ambition, and holding a senior position in cabinet. She would be much less divisive than Burnham or Streeting, hasn't already lost an election as leader (Miliband), nor had to resign due to her finances. Seems a pretty safe choice insofar as there could be said to be one.

    Downside is that she may just end up as Starmer 2: uncharismatic place-holder.
    Not might, would.
    Why on earth do we keep believing that a premiership might unlock hidden depths?

    Cooper has done nothing, said nothing, and achieved nothing during 20 years in the public eye.
    She's a Labour Theresa May.
    Theresa May could count to 10 without using her fingers though
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,623
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,778
    edited May 3
    ydoethur said:

    Meanwhile on BBC2, for those watching in black and white, Denis Taylor is talking shite.

    Thank goodness for Ken Doherty.

    At least there is no John Virgo any more.

    I'm a bit sad Alan McManus wasn't invited back to replace him. I always thought he was very good.
    I didn't mind Virgo. " Is there a gap? There's always a gap!"

    I can't cope with Denis Taylor. I've given up on the snooker for tonight, much like Villa have given up at Villa Park.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,488
    edited May 3

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    Spencer Hakimian
    @SpencerHakimian
    ·
    2h
    🚨BREAKING: Gas hits $5.00/Gallon in Texas.

    https://x.com/SpencerHakimian/status/2050958722642460704

    What's a reasonable worst-case scenario for the GOP in the midterms if we assume that the elections aren't stolen and the Strait of Hormuz isn't opened?
    Lose the senate and the house.

    The GOP would deserve it.
    Let's consider the Senate seats they could pick up.

    Assuming a hold in Georgia and Michigan, which didn't look certain a year ago (certainly the former).

    Maine looks a certainty.

    Ohio and North Carolina look very possible.

    Texas and Alaska both look realistic if not straightforward.

    If they have an astonishing night they might pick up one of Kansas or Florida and the independent they are backing in Nebraska might pull off a win.

    So in a very best case scenario where on top of everything else Donald Trump is caught publicly masturbating over a photo of Barack Obama or something, they might pick up six seats and a Dem-leaning independent one.

    In a more normal scenario, they should pick up three, maybe four or five.

    If therefore they do any better than that we can fairly safely say no Republican will be in the White House in 2028 without even more substantial vote rigging than they have managed up to now.
    The Dems got hammered in 2010 yet Obama won easily in 2012.

    The GOP got hammered in 1982 yet Reagan won easily in 1984.

    The GOP got hammered in 1974 yet Ford almost won in 1976.

    So it is possible for big shifts to happen but the main requirement is competent government amid an improving world situation.

    The problem for the GOP is that competent government is something we've seen little of from either Trump administration while an improving world situation also looks doubtful.

    And drop the drivel about vote rigging - both sides manipulate the electoral system as much as they can and Trump didn't win because of it.
    That's an irregular verb, isn't it? I tell home truths, he is exaggerating, you talk drivel.

    On that basis, I will stop telling home truths about vote rigging when you stop talking drivel about Trump's attempted coup in 2020.
    And what drivel have I ever said about Trump's attempted coup ?

    You will not be able to answer that question because I haven't said any drivel about Trump's attempted coup.

    Unless that is you think that saying Trump attempted to overturn a fair election result through legal manipulations backed up by encouraging street thuggery is drivel.

    Whereas, sadly, it seems that you would prefer to retreat into comforting fictions rather than attempting to understand why Trump won. Which is especially sad from someone with an academic background,

    Still I'll leave you to continue waving the pompoms.

    Altogether now with yodders:

    "Our vote rigging good, their vote rigging bad."

    I'll be the one at the back, shaking my head at both sides and wishing we could have some competent government from somebody for the USA and world as a whole.
    You said nobody died during the riots,* and you said he did not incite them.

    Feel free to deny that, but we all saw your posts.

    And that, as you apparently now know perfectly well, is drivel.

    I am interested to see you are now rowing back on your previously full throated support for Trump, but I note you still struggle to admit your previous error of judgement. An interesting case study in light of a previous poster's comment on his support.

    *This may be very technically true, but for the four people who died as a direct result the following day any reasonable person would say that is a distinction without a difference.
  • isamisam Posts: 44,230

    FPT…

    theProle said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Good video this time from Kemi (‘s research team)

    Why did Farage run scared from news interviews today?

    It’s because there’s something fishy about the £5 million he took. And he knows it.

    He’s normally very happy to shout from a TV studio -as long as he controls the terms.

    The truth is that cash wasn’t for Reform.
    Watch👇


    https://x.com/kemibadenoch/status/2050897032928219324?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Hasn't he said the cash wasn't for Reform? I thought the whole thing is being explained as a personal gift to Farage "outside politics" that's why he's saying it wasn't declared.
    Yes, which makes the phrasing in Kemi's tweet a bit odd. Reform's defence about non-disclosure is precisely that the cash wasn't for Reform (not that this "personal gift" defence seems likely to work given the requirements of disclosure).

    However, none of that matters. It stinks of shit. If you're quibbling over the details, you've already lost. This is an area of weakness for Farage. We've seen polling before that the message that Farage is in the pocket of rich donors cuts through strongly. He's looking ever more like Trump, and looking like Trump doesn't win you votes any more.

    Ongoing investigations also means the story will run and run.
    It stinks like all of Sir Keir’s mealy mouthed excuses for the things he looked bang to rights for I’m afraid, and just reminds me of American politics, which I find quite sleazy.
    Isn't there a difference?

    SKS sanctimoniously whinged about everything and anything until elected, then turns out to be as bad as the rest of them. There is little voters loathe so much as a hypocrite. He's also not helped his cause by playing his rather poor hand extremely badly as PM.

    Farage has never claimed to be whiter than white. His appeal is that he might actually do some of the stuff everyone knows needs doing, but the other political parties can't or won't do, like stopping the boats. He's therefore not judged on the "whiteness" scale, but almost entirely on the "will he actually do the necessary stuff" scale.

    Is his £5mil a bit dodgy? Probably. Is it going to change a single vote? Probably not. Voters don't actually want a sanctimonious prig for PM, they just want one who is effective. Boris showed that, it was just unfortunate he failed fairly badly on the being effective bit.
    I’m not convinced by that. We’ve discussed polling before that showed that a message that Farage is in the pocket of big donors was effective. The point, perhaps, is whether Farage is going to “do the necessary stuff” for *you*, the voter, or whether he’s just another tool of *them*. If he’d fiddled his taxes, I can see your line of reasoning working maybe, but this isn’t about Farage enriching himself, it’s about Farage being owned by someone else.

    Most things don’t shift many votes. PB trumpets some catastrophe or debacle every other week, most of which sink without a trace. The voters don’t give a shit about Diego Garcia, for example. But if I was going to pick something that might cut through, this would be my pick from events in April.
    The thing that’s bad for the politician you dislike the most is your tip for what the public will pick up on?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 81,143
    Not watching but the first half dominance of Spurs looks staggering according to the BBC line chart. Are Villa fielding a full strength team ?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,778
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    Spencer Hakimian
    @SpencerHakimian
    ·
    2h
    🚨BREAKING: Gas hits $5.00/Gallon in Texas.

    https://x.com/SpencerHakimian/status/2050958722642460704

    What's a reasonable worst-case scenario for the GOP in the midterms if we assume that the elections aren't stolen and the Strait of Hormuz isn't opened?
    Lose the senate and the house.

    The GOP would deserve it.
    Let's consider the Senate seats they could pick up.

    Assuming a hold in Georgia and Michigan, which didn't look certain a year ago (certainly the former).

    Maine looks a certainty.

    Ohio and North Carolina look very possible.

    Texas and Alaska both look realistic if not straightforward.

    If they have an astonishing night they might pick up one of Kansas or Florida and the independent they are backing in Nebraska might pull off a win.

    So in a very best case scenario where on top of everything else Donald Trump is caught publicly masturbating over a photo of Barack Obama or something, they might pick up six seats and a Dem-leaning independent one.

    In a more normal scenario, they should pick up three, maybe four or five.

    If therefore they do any better than that we can fairly safely say no Republican will be in the White House in 2028 without even more substantial vote rigging than they have managed up to now.
    The Dems got hammered in 2010 yet Obama won easily in 2012.

    The GOP got hammered in 1982 yet Reagan won easily in 1984.

    The GOP got hammered in 1974 yet Ford almost won in 1976.

    So it is possible for big shifts to happen but the main requirement is competent government amid an improving world situation.

    The problem for the GOP is that competent government is something we've seen little of from either Trump administration while an improving world situation also looks doubtful.

    And drop the drivel about vote rigging - both sides manipulate the electoral system as much as they can and Trump didn't win because of it.
    That's an irregular verb, isn't it? I tell home truths, he is exaggerating, you talk drivel.

    On that basis, I will stop telling home truths about vote rigging when you stop talking drivel about Trump's attempted coup in 2020.
    And what drivel have I ever said about Trump's attempted coup ?

    You will not be able to answer that question because I haven't said any drivel about Trump's attempted coup.

    Unless that is you think that saying Trump attempted to overturn a fair election result through legal manipulations backed up by encouraging street thuggery is drivel.

    Whereas, sadly, it seems that you would prefer to retreat into comforting fictions rather than attempting to understand why Trump won. Which is especially sad from someone with an academic background,

    Still I'll leave you to continue waving the pompoms.

    Altogether now with yodders:

    "Our vote rigging good, their vote rigging bad."

    I'll be the one at the back, shaking my head at both sides and wishing we could have some competent government from somebody for the USA and world as a whole.
    You said nobody died during the riots,* and you said he did not incite them.

    Feel free to deny that, but we all saw your posts.

    And that, as you apparently now know perfectly well, is drivel.

    I am interested to see you are now rowing back on your previously full throated support for Trump, but I note you still struggle to admit your previous error of judgement. An interesting case study in light of a previous poster's comment on his support.

    *This may be very technically true, but for the four people who died as a direct result the following day any reasonable person would say that is a distinction without a difference.
    @another_richard has certainly drunk the orangeade.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,856
    Pulpstar said:

    Not watching but the first half dominance of Spurs looks staggering according to the BBC line chart. Are Villa fielding a full strength team ?

    They've made a few changes but have still got good players out there. This is classic Unai Emery. They go to City final day of the city (looks nervously at goal difference...).
  • stodgestodge Posts: 16,675
    Evening all :)

    Perhaps the most interesting week of local politics ever in my neck of the woods approaches.

    I genuinely don't know how the local elections will play out in Newham next Thursday and the fact I can say that for the first time having lived here more than 20 years tells you how far Labour has fallen.

    My head says Labour will hang on but barely but the Newham Independents have run a solid and professional campaign. My current prediction would be Labour 36, NIP 23, Greens 7 currently but the NIP have come into my Ward (Wall End) with canvassers suggesting they can reach beyond the Muslim Wards.

    Labour are trying to hold on to the Tamil vote in the more Hindu Wards - even the Conservatives are getting in on the act in Wall End.

    As far as the Mayoral election is result, the question is whether Mirza can pile up enough votes from the Muslim Wards to offset the Labour vote in other areas?

    The Mayoral vote is due to count Thursday and that will give us a strong hint of how the Council election the next day will go.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 22,098
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy Burnham is too flaky to be PM.
    Angela Rayner too stupid.
    Ed Miliband too left wing.

    It kind of has to be Streeting, if anyone cares about the country.

    Don't swallow Streeting's own estimation of himself. When looked at with a cold eye he's shown less administrative ability than Rayner or Burnham. There is no reason to think he would suddenly improve as PM.

    However, as he is deeply unpopular with members the point is in all likelihood moot.

    Of your list, Miliband is probably Starmer's likeliest successor, but I am surprised how seldom Cooper is mentioned.
    I wouldn't dream of voting for Streeting (still less Mahmood) and IMHO that's the position of most members, as they are both seen as too right-wing. Ed M would be an interesting choice (and not especially left-wing), and Cooper an OK one, but it seems unlikely that anyone will want to take over with Burnham hovering in the wings and temporarily excluded by a maneouvre. I can see Starmer hanging on despite potentially awful local elections on the basis that a full choice of alternatives isn't available yet and it's too far from the next election - he can probably buy time by hinting that he'll go before then. If things cheer up he'll benefit, and if they don't he can stand down with dignity in a year or two.

    But surely that's another reason to still lay Burnham? There is still no route for him to become and MP without Labour's polling recovering, which would nix any idea of a challenge.
    I think there are quite a few seats where Burnham would have a reasonable chance. It does come down to whether the NEC will block it...
  • isamisam Posts: 44,230
    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Not watching but the first half dominance of Spurs looks staggering according to the BBC line chart. Are Villa fielding a full strength team ?

    They've made a few changes but have still got good players out there. This is classic Unai Emery. They go to City final day of the city (looks nervously at goal difference...).
    Annoying as it is, they have fifth place sewn up, and have to focus on the Europa League. It disappoints me how much I want Tottenham to go down. Their fans will see us coming second in the league and making the CL semis while they just about stay up as something to poke fun at us for
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,856
    edited May 3
    isam said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Not watching but the first half dominance of Spurs looks staggering according to the BBC line chart. Are Villa fielding a full strength team ?

    They've made a few changes but have still got good players out there. This is classic Unai Emery. They go to City final day of the city (looks nervously at goal difference...).
    Annoying as it is, they have fifth place sewn up, and have to focus on the Europa League. It disappoints me how much I want Tottenham to go down. Their fans will see us coming second in the league and making the CL semis while they just about stay up as something to poke fun at us for
    I couldn't give a toss about them. I was delighted to see Brentford win yesterday. They are a tough opponent so I want them going to City with plenty to play for.

    EDIT: the whole second again stuff - it's actually a lot worse from everyone else. Charlton fans on the tube last night were singing it. Weird.
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