Polanski now retweeting one of the most virulently antisemitic accounts in Ireland, a man who was literally invited to Tehran by the Iranian regime to join a propaganda junket.
lol
Three observations:
1. Polanski is seriously seriously stupid. Just a dumb fucker. This is his education, from Wiki:
"Polanski studied drama at Aberystwyth University from 2003 to 2006 and attended a drama school in Atlanta, Georgia in the United States."
DRAMA AT ABERYSTWYTH UNIVERSITY
Intellectually, he makes Jeremy Corbyn look like Carl Jung. He will make many more of these errors due to his idiocy, and he will self destruct
Meaning:
2. The Green implosion will come much sooner than expected as Polanski falls apart; then the Islamists might try to take over earlier than they anticipated
Meaning:
3. This could be a shred of hope for Starmer as the Greens sink back
Amid your usual stream of consciousness drivel, there might actually be some genuine insight buried there. The next GE might very well turn out to be - contrary to all current expectations - a mostly familiar Labour versus Tory contest (with the LDs holding their 75-odd seats on the side), with the question being which of Reform or the Greens has imploded first and the more dramatically. Bet accordingly, DYOR.
In three years, most likely both.
With Farage at the helm, Reform just HAS to go tits up in that time.
Is it fair to say that with recent events the MSM is getting to where it should have been two years ago on the antisemitism issue? I see uniondivvie keenly pointing out that the tabloid attention to the issue has failed to make antisemitism one of the public's top concerns.
So is that bravo to the tabloids for trying to raise the salience of the issue? Or maybe we'd be better off if they hadn't? I'm not sure the obvious conclusions to draw are the ones he intended.
Great that you know what conclusions I was intending to draw, very generous of you to share, though a bit chicken-hearted not to address me directly.
I was replying to a post saying Gaza was not high on voters concerns, so the conclusion I was drawing is that much as partisans on both sides, tabloid editors, politicians, randoms on the internet and Simon Scharma want the populace to join in their rending of garments, it’s not really happening. It’s just on balance there are more people disturbed by thousands of disembowelled, decapitated and disassembled kids than they are by a schizophrenic bloke stabbing two Jews and a Muslim.
Sorry there, I find most of your comments on this site rather tiresome and assume you're just doing it for the bants. I failed to realise that although you generally offer little else but snide barbs at people on the right, you are in fact just acting out of the height of intellectual considerations and not offering any real personal view of your own.
But you see you can't help but give yourself away. 'Schizophrenic bloke stabbing two Jews and Muslim.' Do you think that is why Jews are so concerned? Why we've had recent statements we've had from the head of the Greater Manchester Police and the Met about the safety of British Jews. Now perhaps you don't mean to make light of it, you just chose not to mention it in its full context. But at some point people are entitled to wonder.
Ooh, get Mr Snide! Have you got to know any Jewish people yet? If not I can only applaud your selfless efforts on behalf of British Jews.
If your defence is “I wasn’t minimising antisemitism, I was merely describing it in the most minimising terms available,” then, splendid, carry on.
I fear I must break it to you that making a defence is pretty low down my priorities, least of all to some random popping up on my replies.
Apologies, I mistook this public forum for a public forum. To the specific point in your reply: quite. Much easier not to defend it.
Polanski now retweeting one of the most virulently antisemitic accounts in Ireland, a man who was literally invited to Tehran by the Iranian regime to join a propaganda junket.
lol
Three observations:
1. Polanski is seriously seriously stupid. Just a dumb fucker. This is his education, from Wiki:
"Polanski studied drama at Aberystwyth University from 2003 to 2006 and attended a drama school in Atlanta, Georgia in the United States."
DRAMA AT ABERYSTWYTH UNIVERSITY
Intellectually, he makes Jeremy Corbyn look like Carl Jung. He will make many more of these errors due to his idiocy, and he will self destruct
Meaning:
2. The Green implosion will come much sooner than expected as Polanski falls apart; then the Islamists might try to take over earlier than they anticipated
Meaning:
3. This could be a shred of hope for Starmer as the Greens sink back
Amid your usual stream of consciousness drivel, there might actually be some genuine insight buried there. The next GE might very well turn out to be - contrary to all current expectations - a mostly familiar Labour versus Tory contest (with the LDs holding their 75-odd seats on the side), with the question being which of Reform or the Greens has imploded first and the more dramatically. Bet accordingly, DYOR.
You cannot compare Reform to the Greens. Reform are led by the most capable politician in the country, by a distance, who is also excellent at campaigns - winning national elections - and who has recruited Tory heavyweights to his cause. Reform are the real deal, and they are united on all the migration/culture war issues, in line with public opinion, even if they are only now developing proper policies elsewhere
The Greens are a fundamentally unstable coalition of mad crank lefties, young fools who probably won't vote, and Islamists who secretly want to throw all the gay Green members in prison, or worse. And they are led by a low-IQ dork
Reform are here to stay at least until the GE. The Greens? - yes, they could vanish away
As I said, if that is the NEV on Thursday the champagne corks will be popping in the Starmer’s Downing Street flat on Friday. Even if Reform win Team Starmer can spin beating the Tories, Greens and LDs as a relative victory
The LibDems always outperform on NEV compared to where they are in national polling.
I fully expect them to be ahead of Labour and Conservative.
Suspect the point about Gaza is not that it's a widely-shared voter concern, but that for a smallish but geographically-concentrated slice of the electorate, it's the issue.
The bigger question is this. How do politicians do anything about the first three issues without upsetting people for who the fourth one is key?
The political triumph of Reform is to convince a winning coalition of voters that there is so much waste and woke that it's possible to cut taxes and make people's surroundings better at the same time.
The political failure of Reform is that... there isn't really.
Whilst some of that isn't going to be easy, I'm not sure I'd be so pessimistic about Reform's opportunities to improve things. There is actually a reasonable amount of low hanging fruit which for various reasons government's of various colours have refused to fix.
At one extreme, the tax system and the £100k tax trap. It's really not going to be difficult to come up with a better system than the complete mess which we have at present.
At a different level, we're moving house at the moment. Why have I and my wife had to do (and pay for) three different ID checks (both Estate agents and my solicitors) at about £15 a pop? Fair enough to make the solicitors do it, but that should be sufficient. OK, it's only cost us £90, but multiply that up by the number of houses sold a year, and it's £50-£100mil a year wasted from the population's pockets every year. Trivial on one level, but also trivial to fix.
Take crime. 75% of the noticeable crime (burglaries, shop lifting, that sort of thing) in my small town is the product of half a dozen people. They should be locked up and the key thrown away, rather than doing odd bouts of six weeks inside here and there, plus the odd bit of community service. Three strikes and it's ten years inside would virtually solve low level crime. It would probably pay for itself quite quickly in reduced policing costs too.
£3mil got spent on the A road I use to get to work recently, because about 15 years ago there was a spate of motorcycle accidents (all of them idiots on motorbikes being idiots), and it briefly became categorised as dangerous, and that's how long it takes the bureaucracy to respond. It's currently categorised as so dangerous that it doesn't even qualify for yellow backs on the speed limit signs, however they've (completely unnecessarily) reduced the speed limit, covered everything in white paint and rumble strips and stuff up average speed cameras anyway. There should be a complete moratorium on these sorts of projects followed by a rigorous VFM evaluation before they are allowed to proceed - I can guarantee 95% of them will fail.
Don't even get me started on my local NHS trust, who (for instance) haven't yet discovered email, but insist on posting appointment notifications, even when there is no possibility of the notification arriving prior to the appointment. Also the complete wasted MRI slot I had where I informed them (as per their procedure) there was a risk I had metal splinters in my eyes prior to the day, and they somehow failed to have Xray provision available to check my eyes and my MRI had to be cancelled and the slot go unused.
I could go on, but you get the picture. Everywhere one looks, there are loads of easy wins. If Reform manage do 10% of them, they should make the UK a much better place.
Three strikes and 10 years imprisonment sounds good but you'd soon have a backlash and juries refusing to convict a shoplifter facing 10 years for pinching a bottle of water.
I have a trial in Aberdeen next week. Absolutely routine concerned in the supply of drugs. Lots of evidence. Not much value. But its in the High Court because s205B of the Criminal Procedure (S) Act said that a 3rd conviction for being concerned in the supply at indictment level has a minimum sentence of 5 years. So, we end up with a trial when we should have a plea. There is absolutely no incentive to plead because the Court cannot give a discount. And they won't give him any more given the value.
Polanski now retweeting one of the most virulently antisemitic accounts in Ireland, a man who was literally invited to Tehran by the Iranian regime to join a propaganda junket.
lol
Three observations:
1. Polanski is seriously seriously stupid. Just a dumb fucker. This is his education, from Wiki:
"Polanski studied drama at Aberystwyth University from 2003 to 2006 and attended a drama school in Atlanta, Georgia in the United States."
DRAMA AT ABERYSTWYTH UNIVERSITY
Intellectually, he makes Jeremy Corbyn look like Carl Jung. He will make many more of these errors due to his idiocy, and he will self destruct
Meaning:
2. The Green implosion will come much sooner than expected as Polanski falls apart; then the Islamists might try to take over earlier than they anticipated
Meaning:
3. This could be a shred of hope for Starmer as the Greens sink back
Amid your usual stream of consciousness drivel, there might actually be some genuine insight buried there. The next GE might very well turn out to be - contrary to all current expectations - a mostly familiar Labour versus Tory contest (with the LDs holding their 75-odd seats on the side), with the question being which of Reform or the Greens has imploded first and the more dramatically. Bet accordingly, DYOR.
You cannot compare Reform to the Greens. Reform are led by the most capable politician in the country, by a distance, who is also excellent at campaigns - winning national elections - and who has recruited Tory heavyweights to his cause. Reform are the real deal, and they are united on all the migration/culture war issues, in line with public opinion, even if they are only now developing proper policies elsewhere
Greens are a fundamentally unstable coalition of mad crank lefties, young fools who probably won't vote, and Islamists who secretly want to throw all the gay Green members in prison, or worse. And they are led by a low-IQ dork
Reform are here to stay at least until the GE. Greens, yes, they could vanish away
Yet those Tory heavyweights have hit Reform’s USP - of being untainted by past failure - below the waterline, and everyone knows that Farage emerged from retirement for his last hurrah.
The valid comparison is that Reform is sinking the Tory vote whereas the Greens are sinking the Labour vote. Whichever collapses first and most dramatically, the corresponding major party is likely to win next time. It sounds to me like you’re actually predicting that your best mate Starmer’s party might be the better placed?
As I said, if that is the NEV on Thursday the champagne corks will be popping in the Starmer’s Downing Street flat on Friday. Even if Reform win Team Starmer can spin beating the Tories, Greens and LDs as a relative victory
The LibDems always outperform on NEV compared to where they are in national polling.
I fully expect them to be ahead of Labour and Conservative.
I’m hoping they can do well in my area and take East Sussex County Council.
Hopefully there’s enough of a split vote between the Tories and Reform . I don’t want the shame of being under a Reform council !
Polanski now retweeting one of the most virulently antisemitic accounts in Ireland, a man who was literally invited to Tehran by the Iranian regime to join a propaganda junket.
lol
Three observations:
1. Polanski is seriously seriously stupid. Just a dumb fucker. This is his education, from Wiki:
"Polanski studied drama at Aberystwyth University from 2003 to 2006 and attended a drama school in Atlanta, Georgia in the United States."
DRAMA AT ABERYSTWYTH UNIVERSITY
Intellectually, he makes Jeremy Corbyn look like Carl Jung. He will make many more of these errors due to his idiocy, and he will self destruct
Meaning:
2. The Green implosion will come much sooner than expected as Polanski falls apart; then the Islamists might try to take over earlier than they anticipated
Meaning:
3. This could be a shred of hope for Starmer as the Greens sink back
Amid your usual stream of consciousness drivel, there might actually be some genuine insight buried there. The next GE might very well turn out to be - contrary to all current expectations - a mostly familiar Labour versus Tory contest (with the LDs holding their 75-odd seats on the side), with the question being which of Reform or the Greens has imploded first and the more dramatically. Bet accordingly, DYOR.
In three years, most likely both.
With Farage at the helm, Reform just HAS to go tits up in that time.
When you look at Farage's career, do you see an unsuccessful politician who never wins things and keeps fucking things up? Because Reality would like to have a word
He's the most successful, capable and consequential British politician since Blair
From private eye a few months ago on Zack Polanski's time with the Lib Dems.
"At the time, the party was split between lefties and coalition-defending Cleggmaniacs, and Polanski gave the impression of sympathy to both groups. He praised "Nick" (Clegg) repeatedly in his conference speech, but was also a regular attendee of council meetings of the Social Liberal Forum (SLF), the party's leading left-wing pressure group.
"I found it hard to square the stuff he was telling us, about how he was against privatisation, with the pro-market views I'd heard from him at other party events," one SLF colleague told the Eye. "Then I realised he'd twigged that most rank-and-file members were SLF supporters; what he really wanted was the SLF's endorsement in selection contests."
This surprises a colleague from the rival right-wing Liberal Reform pressure group: "We thought he was one of us. He told us so when he came up to our stand at conference.""
"Look into my eyes. Looook intooo my eyes. I am a member of the Liberal Reform pressure group. I have always beeeeen a member. Yooo are feeling sleeeepy...."
Polanski now retweeting one of the most virulently antisemitic accounts in Ireland, a man who was literally invited to Tehran by the Iranian regime to join a propaganda junket.
lol
Three observations:
1. Polanski is seriously seriously stupid. Just a dumb fucker. This is his education, from Wiki:
"Polanski studied drama at Aberystwyth University from 2003 to 2006 and attended a drama school in Atlanta, Georgia in the United States."
DRAMA AT ABERYSTWYTH UNIVERSITY
Intellectually, he makes Jeremy Corbyn look like Carl Jung. He will make many more of these errors due to his idiocy, and he will self destruct
Meaning:
2. The Green implosion will come much sooner than expected as Polanski falls apart; then the Islamists might try to take over earlier than they anticipated
Meaning:
3. This could be a shred of hope for Starmer as the Greens sink back
Amid your usual stream of consciousness drivel, there might actually be some genuine insight buried there. The next GE might very well turn out to be - contrary to all current expectations - a mostly familiar Labour versus Tory contest (with the LDs holding their 75-odd seats on the side), with the question being which of Reform or the Greens has imploded first and the more dramatically. Bet accordingly, DYOR.
You cannot compare Reform to the Greens. Reform are led by the most capable politician in the country, by a distance, who is also excellent at campaigns - winning national elections - and who has recruited Tory heavyweights to his cause. Reform are the real deal, and they are united on all the migration/culture war issues, in line with public opinion, even if they are only now developing proper policies elsewhere
The Greens are a fundamentally unstable coalition of mad crank lefties, young fools who probably won't vote, and Islamists who secretly want to throw all the gay Green members in prison, or worse. And they are led by a low-IQ dork
Reform are here to stay at least until the GE. The Greens? - yes, they could vanish away
Lol, you may or may not be making good strategic points here, but you've buried it under so much Farage fan fiction that it needs an adult content warning. I'm going to need to read this again to see if anything may be at all sensible.
Polanski now retweeting one of the most virulently antisemitic accounts in Ireland, a man who was literally invited to Tehran by the Iranian regime to join a propaganda junket.
lol
Three observations:
1. Polanski is seriously seriously stupid. Just a dumb fucker. This is his education, from Wiki:
"Polanski studied drama at Aberystwyth University from 2003 to 2006 and attended a drama school in Atlanta, Georgia in the United States."
DRAMA AT ABERYSTWYTH UNIVERSITY
Intellectually, he makes Jeremy Corbyn look like Carl Jung. He will make many more of these errors due to his idiocy, and he will self destruct
Meaning:
2. The Green implosion will come much sooner than expected as Polanski falls apart; then the Islamists might try to take over earlier than they anticipated
Meaning:
3. This could be a shred of hope for Starmer as the Greens sink back
Amid your usual stream of consciousness drivel, there might actually be some genuine insight buried there. The next GE might very well turn out to be - contrary to all current expectations - a mostly familiar Labour versus Tory contest (with the LDs holding their 75-odd seats on the side), with the question being which of Reform or the Greens has imploded first and the more dramatically. Bet accordingly, DYOR.
In three years, most likely both.
With Farage at the helm, Reform just HAS to go tits up in that time.
When you look at Farage's career, do you see an unsuccessful politician who never wins things and keeps fucking things up? Because Reality would like to have a word
He's the most successful, capable and consequential British politician since Blair
Electorally unsuccessful, but politically consequential. His consequentiality might well be sinking Tory chances at the next GE and handing Labour (or some centre-left coalition) a second term, during which we change the electoral system and move toward rejoining the EU.
Five unexpected but excellent things are beginning to happen
1. London is beginning to bounce back 2. Brexit is beginning to show benefits (belatedly) 3. Iran is beginning to lose the war 4. Russia is beginning to lose the war 5. Reform are beginning to look like actual election winners
5 looks doubtful. Their curve downwards since October 2025 is dramatic. Although they will do well on Thursday, the time to look again will be after that dust has settled, other parties have decided their leadership for post 2026 (no idea) and the Reform downward curve has had a bit more time to go upwards or otherwise.
The time after that to look will be when the non anorak voters (almost all of them) start reflecting on who they most don't want running the country and how to vote in that light. This might start late next year as from the start of 2028 an election could be on the way.
For now, compare Reform boosterism with where the money is going from punters. Current conclusions are that probably Reform won't get most seats, and much more probably Reform won't win a majority.
The NEV isn't going to flatter Labour at these elections, to put it bluntly.
You cannot take headline VI figures and directly extrapolate these to local election VI. Aside from tactical votes (whose effect is I think significantly diluted in local vs general elections), there is precious little inspiring anyone to the polls to vote for Labour this time around.
I think Reform and LDs will outperform polling VI in England, Greens probably will also. Tories and Labour will suffer.
Polanski now retweeting one of the most virulently antisemitic accounts in Ireland, a man who was literally invited to Tehran by the Iranian regime to join a propaganda junket.
lol
Three observations:
1. Polanski is seriously seriously stupid. Just a dumb fucker. This is his education, from Wiki:
"Polanski studied drama at Aberystwyth University from 2003 to 2006 and attended a drama school in Atlanta, Georgia in the United States."
DRAMA AT ABERYSTWYTH UNIVERSITY
Intellectually, he makes Jeremy Corbyn look like Carl Jung. He will make many more of these errors due to his idiocy, and he will self destruct
Meaning:
2. The Green implosion will come much sooner than expected as Polanski falls apart; then the Islamists might try to take over earlier than they anticipated
Meaning:
3. This could be a shred of hope for Starmer as the Greens sink back
Amid your usual stream of consciousness drivel, there might actually be some genuine insight buried there. The next GE might very well turn out to be - contrary to all current expectations - a mostly familiar Labour versus Tory contest (with the LDs holding their 75-odd seats on the side), with the question being which of Reform or the Greens has imploded first and the more dramatically. Bet accordingly, DYOR.
You cannot compare Reform to the Greens. Reform are led by the most capable politician in the country, by a distance, who is also excellent at campaigns - winning national elections - and who has recruited Tory heavyweights to his cause. Reform are the real deal, and they are united on all the migration/culture war issues, in line with public opinion, even if they are only now developing proper policies elsewhere
The Greens are a fundamentally unstable coalition of mad crank lefties, young fools who probably won't vote, and Islamists who secretly want to throw all the gay Green members in prison, or worse. And they are led by a low-IQ dork
Reform are here to stay at least until the GE. The Greens? - yes, they could vanish away
Lol, you may or may not be making good strategic points here, but you've buried it under so much Farage fan fiction that it needs an adult content warning. I'm going to need to read this again to see if anything may be at all sensible.
Farage's CV is a matter of historical record
1. He secured the Brexit vote (by terrifying the Tories with UKIP), he then helped win that vote. Withour Farage, no Brexit
2. He has now created or recreated TWO parties that have become major national contenders - first UKIP, now Reform
3. As leader, he has won national elections (to the European parliament, pre Brexit)
4. He has now secured a Westminster constituency, which was the last desperate accusation - "you've never been an MP" - his detractors used to hurl at him
Of course, he's got major flaws. He falls out with people. He's tetchy. His grasp of wider policies (beyond the EU and now immigration) seems "hazy". He's getting on a bit, too
But look at his opponents. Starmer, Badenoch, Swinney, Davey, Polanski. He's a mighty political talent compared to any of them
Polanski now retweeting one of the most virulently antisemitic accounts in Ireland, a man who was literally invited to Tehran by the Iranian regime to join a propaganda junket.
lol
Three observations:
1. Polanski is seriously seriously stupid. Just a dumb fucker. This is his education, from Wiki:
"Polanski studied drama at Aberystwyth University from 2003 to 2006 and attended a drama school in Atlanta, Georgia in the United States."
DRAMA AT ABERYSTWYTH UNIVERSITY
Intellectually, he makes Jeremy Corbyn look like Carl Jung. He will make many more of these errors due to his idiocy, and he will self destruct
Meaning:
2. The Green implosion will come much sooner than expected as Polanski falls apart; then the Islamists might try to take over earlier than they anticipated
Meaning:
3. This could be a shred of hope for Starmer as the Greens sink back
Amid your usual stream of consciousness drivel, there might actually be some genuine insight buried there. The next GE might very well turn out to be - contrary to all current expectations - a mostly familiar Labour versus Tory contest (with the LDs holding their 75-odd seats on the side), with the question being which of Reform or the Greens has imploded first and the more dramatically. Bet accordingly, DYOR.
You cannot compare Reform to the Greens. Reform are led by the most capable politician in the country, by a distance, who is also excellent at campaigns - winning national elections - and who has recruited Tory heavyweights to his cause. Reform are the real deal, and they are united on all the migration/culture war issues, in line with public opinion, even if they are only now developing proper policies elsewhere
The Greens are a fundamentally unstable coalition of mad crank lefties, young fools who probably won't vote, and Islamists who secretly want to throw all the gay Green members in prison, or worse. And they are led by a low-IQ dork
Reform are here to stay at least until the GE. The Greens? - yes, they could vanish away
Lol, you may or may not be making good strategic points here, but you've buried it under so much Farage fan fiction that it needs an adult content warning. I'm going to need to read this again to see if anything may be at all sensible.
Farage's CV is a matter of historical record
1. He secured the Brexit vote (by terrifying the Tories with UKIP), he then helped win that vote. Withour Farage, no Brexit
2. He has now created or recreated TWO parties that have become major national contenders - first UKIP, now Reform
3. As leader, he has won national elections (to the European parliament, pre Brexit)
4. He has now secured a Westminster constituency, which was the last desperate accusation - "you've never been an MP" - his detractors used to hurl at him
Of course, he's got major flaws. He falls out with people. He's tetchy. His grasp of wider policies (beyond the EU and now immigration) seems "hazy". He's getting on a bit, too
But look at his opponents. Starmer, Badenoch, Swinney, Davey, Polanski. He's a mighty political talent compared to any of them
And at every stage he’s damaged our country and contributed toward poisoning our politics. Why do you think this appalling track record might inexplicably turn positive?
Polanski now retweeting one of the most virulently antisemitic accounts in Ireland, a man who was literally invited to Tehran by the Iranian regime to join a propaganda junket.
lol
Three observations:
1. Polanski is seriously seriously stupid. Just a dumb fucker. This is his education, from Wiki:
"Polanski studied drama at Aberystwyth University from 2003 to 2006 and attended a drama school in Atlanta, Georgia in the United States."
DRAMA AT ABERYSTWYTH UNIVERSITY
Intellectually, he makes Jeremy Corbyn look like Carl Jung. He will make many more of these errors due to his idiocy, and he will self destruct
Meaning:
2. The Green implosion will come much sooner than expected as Polanski falls apart; then the Islamists might try to take over earlier than they anticipated
Meaning:
3. This could be a shred of hope for Starmer as the Greens sink back
Amid your usual stream of consciousness drivel, there might actually be some genuine insight buried there. The next GE might very well turn out to be - contrary to all current expectations - a mostly familiar Labour versus Tory contest (with the LDs holding their 75-odd seats on the side), with the question being which of Reform or the Greens has imploded first and the more dramatically. Bet accordingly, DYOR.
In three years, most likely both.
With Farage at the helm, Reform just HAS to go tits up in that time.
When you look at Farage's career, do you see an unsuccessful politician who never wins things and keeps fucking things up? Because Reality would like to have a word
He's the most successful, capable and consequential British politician since Blair
Electorally unsuccessful, but politically consequential. His consequentiality might well be sinking Tory chances at the next GE and handing Labour (or some centre-left coalition) a second term, during which we change the electoral system and move toward rejoining the EU.
He won the fucking European elections in 2014, you stupid berk
Five unexpected but excellent things are beginning to happen
1. London is beginning to bounce back 2. Brexit is beginning to show benefits (belatedly) 3. Iran is beginning to lose the war 4. Russia is beginning to lose the war 5. Reform are beginning to look like actual election winners
5 looks doubtful. Their curve downwards since October 2025 is dramatic. Although they will do well on Thursday, the time to look again will be after that dust has settled, other parties have decided their leadership for post 2026 (no idea) and the Reform downward curve has had a bit more time to go upwards or otherwise.
The time after that to look will be when the non anorak voters (almost all of them) start reflecting on who they most don't want running the country and how to vote in that light. This might start late next year as from the start of 2028 an election could be on the way.
For now, compare Reform boosterism with where the money is going from punters. Current conclusions are that probably Reform won't get most seats, and much more probably Reform won't win a majority.
4 has been the case for some time frankly. Only Trump and his Russia loving mates seem to think Putin is winning.
Just look at his May Day military march in a few days.
I don't share @Leon's admiration for Farage as a politician. About the only thing he has ever won was Brexit and the extent to which he played a material part in that is highly contentious. As a Brexiteer myself I found his contributions dishonest and cringeworthy.
I do agree with his comments today about Polanski. It really says all that needs to be said about UK politics that someone with so little talent or judgment has got so far.
What I find dismaying is that Reform and the Greens are very likely to come first and second on Thursday in England. In Scotland the SNP will win but the gruesome twosome are likely to come second and third. In Wales Reform seem to be heading for second and the Greens will make good progress.
Do the majority of our population simply have no common sense? Are we so fed up with the banal incompetence of our mainstream parties that judgment has been completely suspended? This country is at serious risk of becoming both ungovernable and ungoverned.
Polanski now retweeting one of the most virulently antisemitic accounts in Ireland, a man who was literally invited to Tehran by the Iranian regime to join a propaganda junket.
lol
Three observations:
1. Polanski is seriously seriously stupid. Just a dumb fucker. This is his education, from Wiki:
"Polanski studied drama at Aberystwyth University from 2003 to 2006 and attended a drama school in Atlanta, Georgia in the United States."
DRAMA AT ABERYSTWYTH UNIVERSITY
Intellectually, he makes Jeremy Corbyn look like Carl Jung. He will make many more of these errors due to his idiocy, and he will self destruct
Meaning:
2. The Green implosion will come much sooner than expected as Polanski falls apart; then the Islamists might try to take over earlier than they anticipated
Meaning:
3. This could be a shred of hope for Starmer as the Greens sink back
Amid your usual stream of consciousness drivel, there might actually be some genuine insight buried there. The next GE might very well turn out to be - contrary to all current expectations - a mostly familiar Labour versus Tory contest (with the LDs holding their 75-odd seats on the side), with the question being which of Reform or the Greens has imploded first and the more dramatically. Bet accordingly, DYOR.
You cannot compare Reform to the Greens. Reform are led by the most capable politician in the country, by a distance, who is also excellent at campaigns - winning national elections - and who has recruited Tory heavyweights to his cause. Reform are the real deal, and they are united on all the migration/culture war issues, in line with public opinion, even if they are only now developing proper policies elsewhere
The Greens are a fundamentally unstable coalition of mad crank lefties, young fools who probably won't vote, and Islamists who secretly want to throw all the gay Green members in prison, or worse. And they are led by a low-IQ dork
Reform are here to stay at least until the GE. The Greens? - yes, they could vanish away
Lol, you may or may not be making good strategic points here, but you've buried it under so much Farage fan fiction that it needs an adult content warning. I'm going to need to read this again to see if anything may be at all sensible.
Farage's CV is a matter of historical record
1. He secured the Brexit vote (by terrifying the Tories with UKIP), he then helped win that vote. Withour Farage, no Brexit
2. He has now created or recreated TWO parties that have become major national contenders - first UKIP, now Reform
3. As leader, he has won national elections (to the European parliament, pre Brexit)
4. He has now secured a Westminster constituency, which was the last desperate accusation - "you've never been an MP" - his detractors used to hurl at him
Of course, he's got major flaws. He falls out with people. He's tetchy. His grasp of wider policies (beyond the EU and now immigration) seems "hazy". He's getting on a bit, too
But look at his opponents. Starmer, Badenoch, Swinney, Davey, Polanski. He's a mighty political talent compared to any of them
Polanski now retweeting one of the most virulently antisemitic accounts in Ireland, a man who was literally invited to Tehran by the Iranian regime to join a propaganda junket.
lol
Three observations:
1. Polanski is seriously seriously stupid. Just a dumb fucker. This is his education, from Wiki:
"Polanski studied drama at Aberystwyth University from 2003 to 2006 and attended a drama school in Atlanta, Georgia in the United States."
DRAMA AT ABERYSTWYTH UNIVERSITY
Intellectually, he makes Jeremy Corbyn look like Carl Jung. He will make many more of these errors due to his idiocy, and he will self destruct
Meaning:
2. The Green implosion will come much sooner than expected as Polanski falls apart; then the Islamists might try to take over earlier than they anticipated
Meaning:
3. This could be a shred of hope for Starmer as the Greens sink back
Amid your usual stream of consciousness drivel, there might actually be some genuine insight buried there. The next GE might very well turn out to be - contrary to all current expectations - a mostly familiar Labour versus Tory contest (with the LDs holding their 75-odd seats on the side), with the question being which of Reform or the Greens has imploded first and the more dramatically. Bet accordingly, DYOR.
You cannot compare Reform to the Greens. Reform are led by the most capable politician in the country, by a distance, who is also excellent at campaigns - winning national elections - and who has recruited Tory heavyweights to his cause. Reform are the real deal, and they are united on all the migration/culture war issues, in line with public opinion, even if they are only now developing proper policies elsewhere
The Greens are a fundamentally unstable coalition of mad crank lefties, young fools who probably won't vote, and Islamists who secretly want to throw all the gay Green members in prison, or worse. And they are led by a low-IQ dork
Reform are here to stay at least until the GE. The Greens? - yes, they could vanish away
Lol, you may or may not be making good strategic points here, but you've buried it under so much Farage fan fiction that it needs an adult content warning. I'm going to need to read this again to see if anything may be at all sensible.
Farage's CV is a matter of historical record
1. He secured the Brexit vote (by terrifying the Tories with UKIP), he then helped win that vote. Withour Farage, no Brexit
2. He has now created or recreated TWO parties that have become major national contenders - first UKIP, now Reform
3. As leader, he has won national elections (to the European parliament, pre Brexit)
4. He has now secured a Westminster constituency, which was the last desperate accusation - "you've never been an MP" - his detractors used to hurl at him
Of course, he's got major flaws. He falls out with people. He's tetchy. His grasp of wider policies (beyond the EU and now immigration) seems "hazy". He's getting on a bit, too
I don't share @Leon's admiration for Farage as a politician. About the only thing he has ever won was Brexit and the extent to which he played a material part in that is highly contentious. As a Brexiteer myself I found his contributions dishonest and cringeworthy.
I do agree with his comments today about Polanski. It really says all that needs to be said about UK politics that someone with so little talent or judgment has got so far.
What I find dismaying is that Reform and the Greens are very likely to come first and second on Thursday in England. In Scotland the SNP will win but the gruesome twosome are likely to come second and third. In Wales Reform seem to be heading for second and the Greens will make good progress.
Do the majority of our population simply have no common sense? Are we so fed up with the banal incompetence of our mainstream parties that judgment has been completely suspended? This country is at serious risk of becoming both ungovernable and ungoverned.
He won the fucking European elections in 2014, you stupid berk
I don't share @Leon's admiration for Farage as a politician. About the only thing he has ever won was Brexit and the extent to which he played a material part in that is highly contentious. As a Brexiteer myself I found his contributions dishonest and cringeworthy.
I do agree with his comments today about Polanski. It really says all that needs to be said about UK politics that someone with so little talent or judgment has got so far.
What I find dismaying is that Reform and the Greens are very likely to come first and second on Thursday in England. In Scotland the SNP will win but the gruesome twosome are likely to come second and third. In Wales Reform seem to be heading for second and the Greens will make good progress.
Do the majority of our population simply have no common sense? Are we so fed up with the banal incompetence of our mainstream parties that judgment has been completely suspended? This country is at serious risk of becoming both ungovernable and ungoverned.
He won the fucking European elections in 2014, you stupid berk
An election to a body that, it turned out, the majority didn't even want to be members of. Where he proceeded to make an arse of himself. Quite an achievement in a completely pointless talking shop.
Polanski now retweeting one of the most virulently antisemitic accounts in Ireland, a man who was literally invited to Tehran by the Iranian regime to join a propaganda junket.
lol
Three observations:
1. Polanski is seriously seriously stupid. Just a dumb fucker. This is his education, from Wiki:
"Polanski studied drama at Aberystwyth University from 2003 to 2006 and attended a drama school in Atlanta, Georgia in the United States."
DRAMA AT ABERYSTWYTH UNIVERSITY
Intellectually, he makes Jeremy Corbyn look like Carl Jung. He will make many more of these errors due to his idiocy, and he will self destruct
Meaning:
2. The Green implosion will come much sooner than expected as Polanski falls apart; then the Islamists might try to take over earlier than they anticipated
Meaning:
3. This could be a shred of hope for Starmer as the Greens sink back
Amid your usual stream of consciousness drivel, there might actually be some genuine insight buried there. The next GE might very well turn out to be - contrary to all current expectations - a mostly familiar Labour versus Tory contest (with the LDs holding their 75-odd seats on the side), with the question being which of Reform or the Greens has imploded first and the more dramatically. Bet accordingly, DYOR.
You cannot compare Reform to the Greens. Reform are led by the most capable politician in the country, by a distance, who is also excellent at campaigns - winning national elections - and who has recruited Tory heavyweights to his cause. Reform are the real deal, and they are united on all the migration/culture war issues, in line with public opinion, even if they are only now developing proper policies elsewhere
The Greens are a fundamentally unstable coalition of mad crank lefties, young fools who probably won't vote, and Islamists who secretly want to throw all the gay Green members in prison, or worse. And they are led by a low-IQ dork
Reform are here to stay at least until the GE. The Greens? - yes, they could vanish away
Lol, you may or may not be making good strategic points here, but you've buried it under so much Farage fan fiction that it needs an adult content warning. I'm going to need to read this again to see if anything may be at all sensible.
Farage's CV is a matter of historical record
1. He secured the Brexit vote (by terrifying the Tories with UKIP), he then helped win that vote. Withour Farage, no Brexit
2. He has now created or recreated TWO parties that have become major national contenders - first UKIP, now Reform
3. As leader, he has won national elections (to the European parliament, pre Brexit)
4. He has now secured a Westminster constituency, which was the last desperate accusation - "you've never been an MP" - his detractors used to hurl at him
Of course, he's got major flaws. He falls out with people. He's tetchy. His grasp of wider policies (beyond the EU and now immigration) seems "hazy". He's getting on a bit, too
But look at his opponents. Starmer, Badenoch, Swinney, Davey, Polanski. He's a mighty political talent compared to any of them
And at every stage he’s damaged our country and contributed toward poisoning our politics. Why do you think this appalling track record might inexplicably turn positive?
Farage wasn't just the fly in the ointment spoiling an otherwise flawless Blairite utopia. There were fundamental problems with that settlement whose consequences still haunt us today - see the earlier discussion on equal pay claims for the latest example.
Polanski now retweeting one of the most virulently antisemitic accounts in Ireland, a man who was literally invited to Tehran by the Iranian regime to join a propaganda junket.
lol
Three observations:
1. Polanski is seriously seriously stupid. Just a dumb fucker. This is his education, from Wiki:
"Polanski studied drama at Aberystwyth University from 2003 to 2006 and attended a drama school in Atlanta, Georgia in the United States."
DRAMA AT ABERYSTWYTH UNIVERSITY
Intellectually, he makes Jeremy Corbyn look like Carl Jung. He will make many more of these errors due to his idiocy, and he will self destruct
Meaning:
2. The Green implosion will come much sooner than expected as Polanski falls apart; then the Islamists might try to take over earlier than they anticipated
Meaning:
3. This could be a shred of hope for Starmer as the Greens sink back
Amid your usual stream of consciousness drivel, there might actually be some genuine insight buried there. The next GE might very well turn out to be - contrary to all current expectations - a mostly familiar Labour versus Tory contest (with the LDs holding their 75-odd seats on the side), with the question being which of Reform or the Greens has imploded first and the more dramatically. Bet accordingly, DYOR.
You cannot compare Reform to the Greens. Reform are led by the most capable politician in the country, by a distance, who is also excellent at campaigns - winning national elections - and who has recruited Tory heavyweights to his cause. Reform are the real deal, and they are united on all the migration/culture war issues, in line with public opinion, even if they are only now developing proper policies elsewhere
The Greens are a fundamentally unstable coalition of mad crank lefties, young fools who probably won't vote, and Islamists who secretly want to throw all the gay Green members in prison, or worse. And they are led by a low-IQ dork
Reform are here to stay at least until the GE. The Greens? - yes, they could vanish away
Lol, you may or may not be making good strategic points here, but you've buried it under so much Farage fan fiction that it needs an adult content warning. I'm going to need to read this again to see if anything may be at all sensible.
Farage's CV is a matter of historical record
1. He secured the Brexit vote (by terrifying the Tories with UKIP), he then helped win that vote. Withour Farage, no Brexit
2. He has now created or recreated TWO parties that have become major national contenders - first UKIP, now Reform
3. As leader, he has won national elections (to the European parliament, pre Brexit)
4. He has now secured a Westminster constituency, which was the last desperate accusation - "you've never been an MP" - his detractors used to hurl at him
Of course, he's got major flaws. He falls out with people. He's tetchy. His grasp of wider policies (beyond the EU and now immigration) seems "hazy". He's getting on a bit, too
But look at his opponents. Starmer, Badenoch, Swinney, Davey, Polanski. He's a mighty political talent compared to any of them
And yet you voted for Starmer over him in 2024.
Yes, because he said some seriously stupid, dodgy stuff about Putin
I am not some doting admirer of Farage. I just acknowlewdge political talent - and success - when I see it
eg As I have often said on here. Alex Salmond was one of the best UK politicians of our time. I abhorred his desire to break up Britain and I am very glad he failed. But was he a good politician? Yes, very good. Head and shoulders above any recent UK prime minister
Polanski now retweeting one of the most virulently antisemitic accounts in Ireland, a man who was literally invited to Tehran by the Iranian regime to join a propaganda junket.
lol
Three observations:
1. Polanski is seriously seriously stupid. Just a dumb fucker. This is his education, from Wiki:
"Polanski studied drama at Aberystwyth University from 2003 to 2006 and attended a drama school in Atlanta, Georgia in the United States."
DRAMA AT ABERYSTWYTH UNIVERSITY
Intellectually, he makes Jeremy Corbyn look like Carl Jung. He will make many more of these errors due to his idiocy, and he will self destruct
Meaning:
2. The Green implosion will come much sooner than expected as Polanski falls apart; then the Islamists might try to take over earlier than they anticipated
Meaning:
3. This could be a shred of hope for Starmer as the Greens sink back
Amid your usual stream of consciousness drivel, there might actually be some genuine insight buried there. The next GE might very well turn out to be - contrary to all current expectations - a mostly familiar Labour versus Tory contest (with the LDs holding their 75-odd seats on the side), with the question being which of Reform or the Greens has imploded first and the more dramatically. Bet accordingly, DYOR.
In three years, most likely both.
With Farage at the helm, Reform just HAS to go tits up in that time.
When you look at Farage's career, do you see an unsuccessful politician who never wins things and keeps fucking things up? Because Reality would like to have a word
He's the most successful, capable and consequential British politician since Blair
For this to be plausible you have to pick your path carefully. He has never been part of the team running the country and until he is doing so a lot is intuition and guesswork.
Winning the Brexit campaign is easier than executing a brilliant Brexit deal and future. Being right about the future is easier if your policies are not put into effect and you can change as you go along.
He has never yet had to show that he is capable of recruiting, implementing and retaining an outstanding top team to run the country. He has never yet had to satisfy both his wealthy donor wing and the welfarists of Clacton. He has never yet been where there is no-one else at all to blame. So I shall wait and see.
I don't share @Leon's admiration for Farage as a politician. About the only thing he has ever won was Brexit and the extent to which he played a material part in that is highly contentious. As a Brexiteer myself I found his contributions dishonest and cringeworthy.
I do agree with his comments today about Polanski. It really says all that needs to be said about UK politics that someone with so little talent or judgment has got so far.
What I find dismaying is that Reform and the Greens are very likely to come first and second on Thursday in England. In Scotland the SNP will win but the gruesome twosome are likely to come second and third. In Wales Reform seem to be heading for second and the Greens will make good progress.
Do the majority of our population simply have no common sense? Are we so fed up with the banal incompetence of our mainstream parties that judgment has been completely suspended? This country is at serious risk of becoming both ungovernable and ungoverned.
I understand why voters are reacting as they are. Labours failure in office has been the straw that broke the camel’s back - repeated votes for mainstream parties haven’t led people to feel they are being governed well or their concerns are being listened to. Now we can debate how legitimate those concerns may be, but what I think is indisputable is how badly the two main parties have communicated with the public in recent times together with how they have behaved in office contributing to a sense of malaise/drift/divide between the political classes and the governed. It’s less about a lack of common sense - it’s a message to do something different.
It’s not a foregone conclusion that the two main parties will fall apart at the next GE - indeed I think it’s still highly possible Ref/Green implode before then or see significant declines in popularity. But these are warning shots. Labour and the Tories need to listen and do better, not pay lip service.
Serious effort going into my constituency. Been canvassed twice today, including one candidate. Leaflets from all major parties.
Genuinely don’t know which way I will vote so been useful. Interesting that both went on crime rather than NHS, cost of living, immigration. Maybe because of my demographic?
I don't share @Leon's admiration for Farage as a politician. About the only thing he has ever won was Brexit and the extent to which he played a material part in that is highly contentious. As a Brexiteer myself I found his contributions dishonest and cringeworthy.
I do agree with his comments today about Polanski. It really says all that needs to be said about UK politics that someone with so little talent or judgment has got so far.
What I find dismaying is that Reform and the Greens are very likely to come first and second on Thursday in England. In Scotland the SNP will win but the gruesome twosome are likely to come second and third. In Wales Reform seem to be heading for second and the Greens will make good progress.
Do the majority of our population simply have no common sense? Are we so fed up with the banal incompetence of our mainstream parties that judgment has been completely suspended? This country is at serious risk of becoming both ungovernable and ungoverned.
He won the fucking European elections in 2014, you stupid berk
An election to a body that, it turned out, the majority didn't even want to be members of. Where he proceeded to make an arse of himself. Quite an achievement in a completely pointless talking shop.
Didn't you used to be quite smart?
The REASON Cameron called the EU Brexit vote was precisely because Farage terrified him into doing it, by winning those European elections in 2014. That was Farage's explicit strategy and ambition - win in Europe to force change in Britain (because it is much harder to break through in Britain due to FPTP, in Europe it is PR so new parties can come through). Farage succeeded handsomely. Without Farage, no Brexit
Polanski now retweeting one of the most virulently antisemitic accounts in Ireland, a man who was literally invited to Tehran by the Iranian regime to join a propaganda junket.
lol
Three observations:
1. Polanski is seriously seriously stupid. Just a dumb fucker. This is his education, from Wiki:
"Polanski studied drama at Aberystwyth University from 2003 to 2006 and attended a drama school in Atlanta, Georgia in the United States."
DRAMA AT ABERYSTWYTH UNIVERSITY
Intellectually, he makes Jeremy Corbyn look like Carl Jung. He will make many more of these errors due to his idiocy, and he will self destruct
Meaning:
2. The Green implosion will come much sooner than expected as Polanski falls apart; then the Islamists might try to take over earlier than they anticipated
Meaning:
3. This could be a shred of hope for Starmer as the Greens sink back
Amid your usual stream of consciousness drivel, there might actually be some genuine insight buried there. The next GE might very well turn out to be - contrary to all current expectations - a mostly familiar Labour versus Tory contest (with the LDs holding their 75-odd seats on the side), with the question being which of Reform or the Greens has imploded first and the more dramatically. Bet accordingly, DYOR.
You cannot compare Reform to the Greens. Reform are led by the most capable politician in the country, by a distance, who is also excellent at campaigns - winning national elections - and who has recruited Tory heavyweights to his cause. Reform are the real deal, and they are united on all the migration/culture war issues, in line with public opinion, even if they are only now developing proper policies elsewhere
The Greens are a fundamentally unstable coalition of mad crank lefties, young fools who probably won't vote, and Islamists who secretly want to throw all the gay Green members in prison, or worse. And they are led by a low-IQ dork
Reform are here to stay at least until the GE. The Greens? - yes, they could vanish away
Lol, you may or may not be making good strategic points here, but you've buried it under so much Farage fan fiction that it needs an adult content warning. I'm going to need to read this again to see if anything may be at all sensible.
Farage's CV is a matter of historical record
1. He secured the Brexit vote (by terrifying the Tories with UKIP), he then helped win that vote. Withour Farage, no Brexit
2. He has now created or recreated TWO parties that have become major national contenders - first UKIP, now Reform
3. As leader, he has won national elections (to the European parliament, pre Brexit)
4. He has now secured a Westminster constituency, which was the last desperate accusation - "you've never been an MP" - his detractors used to hurl at him
Of course, he's got major flaws. He falls out with people. He's tetchy. His grasp of wider policies (beyond the EU and now immigration) seems "hazy". He's getting on a bit, too
But look at his opponents. Starmer, Badenoch, Swinney, Davey, Polanski. He's a mighty political talent compared to any of them
This is a better argument, because it has temporarily escaped the Farage erotica. I agree he is hugely consequential. Possibly the most consequential insurgent politician in modern British politics. But that is not the same as being the most capable politician. Farage has proved he can disrupt, campaign and terrify the Conservatives. He has not yet proved he can govern, run a disciplined party, or produce serious policy beyond his core obsessions. “Mighty political talent” as an insurgent, yes. As a potential PM, TBD.
Polanski now retweeting one of the most virulently antisemitic accounts in Ireland, a man who was literally invited to Tehran by the Iranian regime to join a propaganda junket.
lol
Three observations:
1. Polanski is seriously seriously stupid. Just a dumb fucker. This is his education, from Wiki:
"Polanski studied drama at Aberystwyth University from 2003 to 2006 and attended a drama school in Atlanta, Georgia in the United States."
DRAMA AT ABERYSTWYTH UNIVERSITY
Intellectually, he makes Jeremy Corbyn look like Carl Jung. He will make many more of these errors due to his idiocy, and he will self destruct
Meaning:
2. The Green implosion will come much sooner than expected as Polanski falls apart; then the Islamists might try to take over earlier than they anticipated
Meaning:
3. This could be a shred of hope for Starmer as the Greens sink back
Amid your usual stream of consciousness drivel, there might actually be some genuine insight buried there. The next GE might very well turn out to be - contrary to all current expectations - a mostly familiar Labour versus Tory contest (with the LDs holding their 75-odd seats on the side), with the question being which of Reform or the Greens has imploded first and the more dramatically. Bet accordingly, DYOR.
In three years, most likely both.
With Farage at the helm, Reform just HAS to go tits up in that time.
When you look at Farage's career, do you see an unsuccessful politician who never wins things and keeps fucking things up? Because Reality would like to have a word
He's the most successful, capable and consequential British politician since Blair
Electorally unsuccessful, but politically consequential. His consequentiality might well be sinking Tory chances at the next GE and handing Labour (or some centre-left coalition) a second term, during which we change the electoral system and move toward rejoining the EU.
He won the fucking European elections in 2014, you stupid berk
Serious effort going into my constituency. Been canvassed twice today, including one candidate. Leaflets from all major parties.
Genuinely don’t know which way I will vote so been useful. Interesting that both went on crime rather than NHS, cost of living, immigration. Maybe because of my demographic?
It’s local council elections - the people you elect control the library, social care, some schools and to some level the police. So at least the people you’ve seen have talked about the things you are really voting about
Five unexpected but excellent things are beginning to happen
1. London is beginning to bounce back 2. Brexit is beginning to show benefits (belatedly) 3. Iran is beginning to lose the war 4. Russia is beginning to lose the war 5. Reform are beginning to look like actual election winners
5 looks doubtful. Their curve downwards since October 2025 is dramatic. Although they will do well on Thursday, the time to look again will be after that dust has settled, other parties have decided their leadership for post 2026 (no idea) and the Reform downward curve has had a bit more time to go upwards or otherwise.
The time after that to look will be when the non anorak voters (almost all of them) start reflecting on who they most don't want running the country and how to vote in that light. This might start late next year as from the start of 2028 an election could be on the way.
For now, compare Reform boosterism with where the money is going from punters. Current conclusions are that probably Reform won't get most seats, and much more probably Reform won't win a majority.
4 has been the case for some time frankly. Only Trump and his Russia loving mates seem to think Putin is winning.
Just look at his May Day military march in a few days.
Troubles is, the Ukraine SMO is like the Iran SMO. We can tell who is winning but winning is not the same as having actually won until the loser concedes. Until then, Russia and Iran will soak up punishment in the hope something will turn up. Meanwhile the world pays.
Serious effort going into my constituency. Been canvassed twice today, including one candidate. Leaflets from all major parties.
Genuinely don’t know which way I will vote so been useful. Interesting that both went on crime rather than NHS, cost of living, immigration. Maybe because of my demographic?
It’s local council elections - the people you elect control the library, social care, some schools and to some level the police. So at least the people you’ve seen have talked about the things you are really voting about
Polanski now retweeting one of the most virulently antisemitic accounts in Ireland, a man who was literally invited to Tehran by the Iranian regime to join a propaganda junket.
lol
Three observations:
1. Polanski is seriously seriously stupid. Just a dumb fucker. This is his education, from Wiki:
"Polanski studied drama at Aberystwyth University from 2003 to 2006 and attended a drama school in Atlanta, Georgia in the United States."
DRAMA AT ABERYSTWYTH UNIVERSITY
Intellectually, he makes Jeremy Corbyn look like Carl Jung. He will make many more of these errors due to his idiocy, and he will self destruct
Meaning:
2. The Green implosion will come much sooner than expected as Polanski falls apart; then the Islamists might try to take over earlier than they anticipated
Meaning:
3. This could be a shred of hope for Starmer as the Greens sink back
Amid your usual stream of consciousness drivel, there might actually be some genuine insight buried there. The next GE might very well turn out to be - contrary to all current expectations - a mostly familiar Labour versus Tory contest (with the LDs holding their 75-odd seats on the side), with the question being which of Reform or the Greens has imploded first and the more dramatically. Bet accordingly, DYOR.
You cannot compare Reform to the Greens. Reform are led by the most capable politician in the country, by a distance, who is also excellent at campaigns - winning national elections - and who has recruited Tory heavyweights to his cause. Reform are the real deal, and they are united on all the migration/culture war issues, in line with public opinion, even if they are only now developing proper policies elsewhere
The Greens are a fundamentally unstable coalition of mad crank lefties, young fools who probably won't vote, and Islamists who secretly want to throw all the gay Green members in prison, or worse. And they are led by a low-IQ dork
Reform are here to stay at least until the GE. The Greens? - yes, they could vanish away
Lol, you may or may not be making good strategic points here, but you've buried it under so much Farage fan fiction that it needs an adult content warning. I'm going to need to read this again to see if anything may be at all sensible.
Farage's CV is a matter of historical record
1. He secured the Brexit vote (by terrifying the Tories with UKIP), he then helped win that vote. Withour Farage, no Brexit
2. He has now created or recreated TWO parties that have become major national contenders - first UKIP, now Reform
3. As leader, he has won national elections (to the European parliament, pre Brexit)
4. He has now secured a Westminster constituency, which was the last desperate accusation - "you've never been an MP" - his detractors used to hurl at him
Of course, he's got major flaws. He falls out with people. He's tetchy. His grasp of wider policies (beyond the EU and now immigration) seems "hazy". He's getting on a bit, too
But look at his opponents. Starmer, Badenoch, Swinney, Davey, Polanski. He's a mighty political talent compared to any of them
You are overlooking what is now the important question: will he be any good at running the UK?
Obviously polemic can meet this question with abundant whataboutery - I can supply it myself - but the question matters about Farage just as much as it matters about the others.
A top qualification for PM is top level team building, use of that team, leading it from the front, and good retention rates of the team while succession planning all the time.
I have no evidence, intuition or feeling that Farage is good at this. I think the reverse is true. I think he may be as bad as the current one.
I don't share @Leon's admiration for Farage as a politician. About the only thing he has ever won was Brexit and the extent to which he played a material part in that is highly contentious. As a Brexiteer myself I found his contributions dishonest and cringeworthy.
I do agree with his comments today about Polanski. It really says all that needs to be said about UK politics that someone with so little talent or judgment has got so far.
What I find dismaying is that Reform and the Greens are very likely to come first and second on Thursday in England. In Scotland the SNP will win but the gruesome twosome are likely to come second and third. In Wales Reform seem to be heading for second and the Greens will make good progress.
Do the majority of our population simply have no common sense? Are we so fed up with the banal incompetence of our mainstream parties that judgment has been completely suspended? This country is at serious risk of becoming both ungovernable and ungoverned.
He won the fucking European elections in 2014, you stupid berk
An election to a body that, it turned out, the majority didn't even want to be members of. Where he proceeded to make an arse of himself. Quite an achievement in a completely pointless talking shop.
Didn't you used to be quite smart?
The REASON Cameron called the EU Brexit vote was precisely because Farage terrified him into doing it, by winning those European elections in 2014. That was Farage's explicit strategy and ambition - win in Europe to force change in Britain (because it is much harder to break through in Britain due to FPTP, in Europe it is PR so new parties can come through). Farage succeeded handsomely. Without Farage, no Brexit
Am I talking to a bunch of ten year olds here?
We are not going to agree on this. Cameron went for the Brexit referendum, against the advice of Osborne, in an attempt to hold the broad centre right coalition that normally dominates UK politics together. It worked for a time and gave him a majority in 2015. It works no longer because Farage has tempted away many of the anti EU supporters who previously voted Tory, splitting the centre right in 2.
The result was a Labour majority of well over 100 on a small share of the vote. That thinks that majority should be used to bring us back into the EU. What an achievement that is. He is a disrupter who falls out with everyone. He will do it again, very probably before the next GE.
Polanski now retweeting one of the most virulently antisemitic accounts in Ireland, a man who was literally invited to Tehran by the Iranian regime to join a propaganda junket.
lol
Three observations:
1. Polanski is seriously seriously stupid. Just a dumb fucker. This is his education, from Wiki:
"Polanski studied drama at Aberystwyth University from 2003 to 2006 and attended a drama school in Atlanta, Georgia in the United States."
DRAMA AT ABERYSTWYTH UNIVERSITY
Intellectually, he makes Jeremy Corbyn look like Carl Jung. He will make many more of these errors due to his idiocy, and he will self destruct
Meaning:
2. The Green implosion will come much sooner than expected as Polanski falls apart; then the Islamists might try to take over earlier than they anticipated
Meaning:
3. This could be a shred of hope for Starmer as the Greens sink back
Amid your usual stream of consciousness drivel, there might actually be some genuine insight buried there. The next GE might very well turn out to be - contrary to all current expectations - a mostly familiar Labour versus Tory contest (with the LDs holding their 75-odd seats on the side), with the question being which of Reform or the Greens has imploded first and the more dramatically. Bet accordingly, DYOR.
You cannot compare Reform to the Greens. Reform are led by the most capable politician in the country, by a distance, who is also excellent at campaigns - winning national elections - and who has recruited Tory heavyweights to his cause. Reform are the real deal, and they are united on all the migration/culture war issues, in line with public opinion, even if they are only now developing proper policies elsewhere
The Greens are a fundamentally unstable coalition of mad crank lefties, young fools who probably won't vote, and Islamists who secretly want to throw all the gay Green members in prison, or worse. And they are led by a low-IQ dork
Reform are here to stay at least until the GE. The Greens? - yes, they could vanish away
Lol, you may or may not be making good strategic points here, but you've buried it under so much Farage fan fiction that it needs an adult content warning. I'm going to need to read this again to see if anything may be at all sensible.
Farage's CV is a matter of historical record
1. He secured the Brexit vote (by terrifying the Tories with UKIP), he then helped win that vote. Withour Farage, no Brexit
2. He has now created or recreated TWO parties that have become major national contenders - first UKIP, now Reform
3. As leader, he has won national elections (to the European parliament, pre Brexit)
4. He has now secured a Westminster constituency, which was the last desperate accusation - "you've never been an MP" - his detractors used to hurl at him
Of course, he's got major flaws. He falls out with people. He's tetchy. His grasp of wider policies (beyond the EU and now immigration) seems "hazy". He's getting on a bit, too
But look at his opponents. Starmer, Badenoch, Swinney, Davey, Polanski. He's a mighty political talent compared to any of them
This is a better argument, because it has temporarily escaped the Farage erotica. I agree he is hugely consequential. Possibly the most consequential insurgent politician in modern British politics. But that is not the same as being the most capable politician. Farage has proved he can disrupt, campaign and terrify the Conservatives. He has not yet proved he can govern, run a disciplined party, or produce serious policy beyond his core obsessions. “Mighty political talent” as an insurgent, yes. As a potential PM, TBD.
Hopefully not 'TBD' in fact. Better for it to remain a hypothetical.
I don't share @Leon's admiration for Farage as a politician. About the only thing he has ever won was Brexit and the extent to which he played a material part in that is highly contentious. As a Brexiteer myself I found his contributions dishonest and cringeworthy.
I do agree with his comments today about Polanski. It really says all that needs to be said about UK politics that someone with so little talent or judgment has got so far.
What I find dismaying is that Reform and the Greens are very likely to come first and second on Thursday in England. In Scotland the SNP will win but the gruesome twosome are likely to come second and third. In Wales Reform seem to be heading for second and the Greens will make good progress.
Do the majority of our population simply have no common sense? Are we so fed up with the banal incompetence of our mainstream parties that judgment has been completely suspended? This country is at serious risk of becoming both ungovernable and ungoverned.
He won the fucking European elections in 2014, you stupid berk
An election to a body that, it turned out, the majority didn't even want to be members of. Where he proceeded to make an arse of himself. Quite an achievement in a completely pointless talking shop.
Didn't you used to be quite smart?
The REASON Cameron called the EU Brexit vote was precisely because Farage terrified him into doing it, by winning those European elections in 2014. That was Farage's explicit strategy and ambition - win in Europe to force change in Britain (because it is much harder to break through in Britain due to FPTP, in Europe it is PR so new parties can come through). Farage succeeded handsomely. Without Farage, no Brexit
Am I talking to a bunch of ten year olds here?
Bear in mind that Big Dom kept him well away from the front line during the referendum campaign. No way that Farage could win anything that required a simple majority. Boris was required for that.
Farage is certainly a far more accomplished insurgent/populist than Polanski. The latter really is pitiful and it's extraordinary that he's so prominent.
I don't share @Leon's admiration for Farage as a politician. About the only thing he has ever won was Brexit and the extent to which he played a material part in that is highly contentious. As a Brexiteer myself I found his contributions dishonest and cringeworthy.
I do agree with his comments today about Polanski. It really says all that needs to be said about UK politics that someone with so little talent or judgment has got so far.
What I find dismaying is that Reform and the Greens are very likely to come first and second on Thursday in England. In Scotland the SNP will win but the gruesome twosome are likely to come second and third. In Wales Reform seem to be heading for second and the Greens will make good progress.
Do the majority of our population simply have no common sense? Are we so fed up with the banal incompetence of our mainstream parties that judgment has been completely suspended? This country is at serious risk of becoming both ungovernable and ungoverned.
He won the fucking European elections in 2014, you stupid berk
An election to a body that, it turned out, the majority didn't even want to be members of. Where he proceeded to make an arse of himself. Quite an achievement in a completely pointless talking shop.
Didn't you used to be quite smart?
The REASON Cameron called the EU Brexit vote was precisely because Farage terrified him into doing it, by winning those European elections in 2014. That was Farage's explicit strategy and ambition - win in Europe to force change in Britain (because it is much harder to break through in Britain due to FPTP, in Europe it is PR so new parties can come through). Farage succeeded handsomely. Without Farage, no Brexit
Am I talking to a bunch of ten year olds here?
But in a way, that's the point.
Campaigning genius... but he's never actually run anything. Always on the sidelines, heckling others to do his will.
Even ten year olds know that's the easy version of politics. Does Nigel really want to put himself in the stocks so that everyone can do to him what he's done to them for decades? Perhaps he does now.
I don't share @Leon's admiration for Farage as a politician. About the only thing he has ever won was Brexit and the extent to which he played a material part in that is highly contentious. As a Brexiteer myself I found his contributions dishonest and cringeworthy.
I do agree with his comments today about Polanski. It really says all that needs to be said about UK politics that someone with so little talent or judgment has got so far.
What I find dismaying is that Reform and the Greens are very likely to come first and second on Thursday in England. In Scotland the SNP will win but the gruesome twosome are likely to come second and third. In Wales Reform seem to be heading for second and the Greens will make good progress.
Do the majority of our population simply have no common sense? Are we so fed up with the banal incompetence of our mainstream parties that judgment has been completely suspended? This country is at serious risk of becoming both ungovernable and ungoverned.
He won the fucking European elections in 2014, you stupid berk
An election to a body that, it turned out, the majority didn't even want to be members of. Where he proceeded to make an arse of himself. Quite an achievement in a completely pointless talking shop.
Didn't you used to be quite smart?
The REASON Cameron called the EU Brexit vote was precisely because Farage terrified him into doing it, by winning those European elections in 2014. That was Farage's explicit strategy and ambition - win in Europe to force change in Britain (because it is much harder to break through in Britain due to FPTP, in Europe it is PR so new parties can come through). Farage succeeded handsomely. Without Farage, no Brexit
Am I talking to a bunch of ten year olds here?
We are not going to agree on this. Cameron went for the Brexit referendum, against the advice of Osborne, in an attempt to hold the broad centre right coalition that normally dominates UK politics together. It worked for a time and gave him a majority in 2015. It works no longer because Farage has tempted away many of the anti EU supporters who previously voted Tory, splitting the centre right in 2.
The result was a Labour majority of well over 100 on a small share of the vote. That thinks that majority should be used to bring us back into the EU. What an achievement that is. He is a disrupter who falls out with everyone. He will do it again, very probably before the next GE.
Farage would, actually, have been better off joining the Tories after Brexit, and seeking the leadership. I recall him saying that he was more popular than Sunak with Tory members. In other words done a Trump-type takeover.
But he's an opportunist who never, until he got the £5m bung, thought of becoming PM. Good reasons for that.
I don't share @Leon's admiration for Farage as a politician. About the only thing he has ever won was Brexit and the extent to which he played a material part in that is highly contentious. As a Brexiteer myself I found his contributions dishonest and cringeworthy.
I do agree with his comments today about Polanski. It really says all that needs to be said about UK politics that someone with so little talent or judgment has got so far.
What I find dismaying is that Reform and the Greens are very likely to come first and second on Thursday in England. In Scotland the SNP will win but the gruesome twosome are likely to come second and third. In Wales Reform seem to be heading for second and the Greens will make good progress.
Do the majority of our population simply have no common sense? Are we so fed up with the banal incompetence of our mainstream parties that judgment has been completely suspended? This country is at serious risk of becoming both ungovernable and ungoverned.
He won the fucking European elections in 2014, you stupid berk
An election to a body that, it turned out, the majority didn't even want to be members of. Where he proceeded to make an arse of himself. Quite an achievement in a completely pointless talking shop.
Didn't you used to be quite smart?
The REASON Cameron called the EU Brexit vote was precisely because Farage terrified him into doing it, by winning those European elections in 2014. That was Farage's explicit strategy and ambition - win in Europe to force change in Britain (because it is much harder to break through in Britain due to FPTP, in Europe it is PR so new parties can come through). Farage succeeded handsomely. Without Farage, no Brexit
Am I talking to a bunch of ten year olds here?
Bear in mind that Big Dom kept him well away from the front line during the referendum campaign. No way that Farage could win anything that required a simple majority. Boris was required for that.
Farage is certainly a far more accomplished insurgent/populist than Polanski. The latter really is pitiful and it's extraordinary that he's so prominent.
All our political parties are such feeble hollowed-out things that it's easy for a gobshite with a bit of a platform and a smallish number of devoted followers to take them over.
And these days, anyone who wants can construct a bit of a platform for themselves.
Polanski now retweeting one of the most virulently antisemitic accounts in Ireland, a man who was literally invited to Tehran by the Iranian regime to join a propaganda junket.
lol
Three observations:
1. Polanski is seriously seriously stupid. Just a dumb fucker. This is his education, from Wiki:
"Polanski studied drama at Aberystwyth University from 2003 to 2006 and attended a drama school in Atlanta, Georgia in the United States."
DRAMA AT ABERYSTWYTH UNIVERSITY
Intellectually, he makes Jeremy Corbyn look like Carl Jung. He will make many more of these errors due to his idiocy, and he will self destruct
Meaning:
2. The Green implosion will come much sooner than expected as Polanski falls apart; then the Islamists might try to take over earlier than they anticipated
Meaning:
3. This could be a shred of hope for Starmer as the Greens sink back
Amid your usual stream of consciousness drivel, there might actually be some genuine insight buried there. The next GE might very well turn out to be - contrary to all current expectations - a mostly familiar Labour versus Tory contest (with the LDs holding their 75-odd seats on the side), with the question being which of Reform or the Greens has imploded first and the more dramatically. Bet accordingly, DYOR.
In three years, most likely both.
With Farage at the helm, Reform just HAS to go tits up in that time.
When you look at Farage's career, do you see an unsuccessful politician who never wins things and keeps fucking things up? Because Reality would like to have a word
He's the most successful, capable and consequential British politician since Blair
He's the most successful, capable and consequential OPPOSITION British politician since Blair.
He has yet to show he can be a successful GOVERNING politician or even that he can formulate either policies or a strategy for governing.
I don't share @Leon's admiration for Farage as a politician. About the only thing he has ever won was Brexit and the extent to which he played a material part in that is highly contentious. As a Brexiteer myself I found his contributions dishonest and cringeworthy.
I do agree with his comments today about Polanski. It really says all that needs to be said about UK politics that someone with so little talent or judgment has got so far.
What I find dismaying is that Reform and the Greens are very likely to come first and second on Thursday in England. In Scotland the SNP will win but the gruesome twosome are likely to come second and third. In Wales Reform seem to be heading for second and the Greens will make good progress.
Do the majority of our population simply have no common sense? Are we so fed up with the banal incompetence of our mainstream parties that judgment has been completely suspended? This country is at serious risk of becoming both ungovernable and ungoverned.
He won the fucking European elections in 2014, you stupid berk
An election to a body that, it turned out, the majority didn't even want to be members of. Where he proceeded to make an arse of himself. Quite an achievement in a completely pointless talking shop.
Didn't you used to be quite smart?
The REASON Cameron called the EU Brexit vote was precisely because Farage terrified him into doing it, by winning those European elections in 2014. That was Farage's explicit strategy and ambition - win in Europe to force change in Britain (because it is much harder to break through in Britain due to FPTP, in Europe it is PR so new parties can come through). Farage succeeded handsomely. Without Farage, no Brexit
Am I talking to a bunch of ten year olds here?
We are not going to agree on this. Cameron went for the Brexit referendum, against the advice of Osborne, in an attempt to hold the broad centre right coalition that normally dominates UK politics together. It worked for a time and gave him a majority in 2015. It works no longer because Farage has tempted away many of the anti EU supporters who previously voted Tory, splitting the centre right in 2.
The result was a Labour majority of well over 100 on a small share of the vote. That thinks that majority should be used to bring us back into the EU. What an achievement that is. He is a disrupter who falls out with everyone. He will do it again, very probably before the next GE.
Farage would, actually, have been better off joining the Tories after Brexit, and seeking the leadership. I recall him saying that he was more popular than Sunak with Tory members. In other words done a Trump-type takeover.
But he's an opportunist who never, until he got the £5m bung, thought of becoming PM. Good reasons for that.
We can't be certain even now that in his heart he is prepared to be PM. He has ways out by retiring or losing. I just don't know whether he has the whatever it is that some people have got to be prepared to do what PMs have to do and take all the blame, and in his case disappoint the ludicrous and contradictory expectations of millions of quite dim people, and all the other stuff.
My firm expectation is that one way or another he won't ever be PM. I would be unhappy in this case to be wrong, but the pain would be substantially ameliorated by the sheer fascination of what will happen next. Dull it would not be.
Is it fair to say that with recent events the MSM is getting to where it should have been two years ago on the antisemitism issue? I see uniondivvie keenly pointing out that the tabloid attention to the issue has failed to make antisemitism one of the public's top concerns.
So is that bravo to the tabloids for trying to raise the salience of the issue? Or maybe we'd be better off if they hadn't? I'm not sure the obvious conclusions to draw are the ones he intended.
Great that you know what conclusions I was intending to draw, very generous of you to share, though a bit chicken-hearted not to address me directly.
I was replying to a post saying Gaza was not high on voters concerns, so the conclusion I was drawing is that much as partisans on both sides, tabloid editors, politicians, randoms on the internet and Simon Scharma want the populace to join in their rending of garments, it’s not really happening. It’s just on balance there are more people disturbed by thousands of disembowelled, decapitated and disassembled kids than they are by a schizophrenic bloke stabbing two Jews and a Muslim.
You are on the nail. 'Any Questions' was well worth listening to today-not the simpering panel who were desperate to please-but those phoning in -mainly Jews-who were therefore unafraid to mention the very obvious elephant in the room.
Most said they had been on pro Palestinian marches and were proud to have done so. Why it never strikes anyone that for a people who have suffererd more than their share of slaughter in the not too distant past they would be more attuned to the genocide they are witnessing than most. Certainly in my reasonably wide circle I'd be hard put to identify many who are anything but sickened by Netanyahu and his monstrous henchmen
Of which only council tax (within tight bounds) and road maintenance are actually within the local authority ambit.
They could have named schools, social care, bin collections, planning, housing, parks, buses (in some areas), street cleaning.
Exactly. Gaza's irrelevant IN THESE ELECTIONS! (Sorry about shouting!) Locally the big issue's housing as there's a proposal on the table for 6000 houses in a village nearby. Reform are shouting about Starmer, which is another irrelevance. It's only the Greens who are doing anything.
Given that voting probably won't change the result even in one's ward, the purpose is to indicate a preference, and I don't see any harm in indicating a national preference, as that's so much more important than, say, the precise form of bin collection.
6000 houses will, if all occupied mean about 20,000 people, increasing the size of the community five-fold.
Crime & Anti-Social Behaviour are at least partly with Councils, too.
Coucnils do have input into police priorities.
Also, so is pavement parking which is very prominent ASB.
Councils also control their own competence.
One I ran into a couple of weeks ago which I am not sure mentioned here (it's Reform in Northants, but most do similar) is the Council decided that Blue Badge spaces in their car parks would now be chargeable.
But the idiots left the ticket machine where they are supposed to pay on a kerbed podium that is unreachable using a mobility aid.
I've been prodding a local newspaper in the North-West to cover a somewhat similar story this week - to do with a "cycling" (and cycling only) ban on several miles of local roadworks for months in Northwich, including residential roads, without Scottish Power or Cheshire East apparently being aware that "cycling" on adapted cycles is the only form of local transport (say 0-6 miles journeys) for lots of disabled people without shelling out enormously for taxis etc. 40% do not have driving licences.
For all the fulminating about DEI, we've a long way to go before the issue is even considered in many areas of life.
Perhaps. But at the same time, we have some insane DEI policies, even if we don't call them that. As Birmingham Council found out. And now Tesco:
I don't understand this equal pay for 'equivalent' jobs trend as the jobs appear to be quite different but are by arcane reasoning not permitted to be treated differently.
It is utter bollox to compare working in awarehouse driving forklifts and lugging heavy loads to checkout/help desk / shelf stacker jobs. PC gone crazy.
And again, more low hanging fruit for Reform. No-one except the Lord Hermer's of this world actually thinks being a secretary is equivalent to being a bin man, but we've effectively bankrupted Birmingham council twice because the courts decided otherwise.
People claiming that Reform can't fairly easily make things better for the man in the street are just blinkered, because their so used to living in a country with all the inane stupidly that they have stopped seeing the wood because they a so focused on the trees.
Polanski now retweeting one of the most virulently antisemitic accounts in Ireland, a man who was literally invited to Tehran by the Iranian regime to join a propaganda junket.
lol
Three observations:
1. Polanski is seriously seriously stupid. Just a dumb fucker. This is his education, from Wiki:
"Polanski studied drama at Aberystwyth University from 2003 to 2006 and attended a drama school in Atlanta, Georgia in the United States."
DRAMA AT ABERYSTWYTH UNIVERSITY
Intellectually, he makes Jeremy Corbyn look like Carl Jung. He will make many more of these errors due to his idiocy, and he will self destruct
Meaning:
2. The Green implosion will come much sooner than expected as Polanski falls apart; then the Islamists might try to take over earlier than they anticipated
Meaning:
3. This could be a shred of hope for Starmer as the Greens sink back
Amid your usual stream of consciousness drivel, there might actually be some genuine insight buried there. The next GE might very well turn out to be - contrary to all current expectations - a mostly familiar Labour versus Tory contest (with the LDs holding their 75-odd seats on the side), with the question being which of Reform or the Greens has imploded first and the more dramatically. Bet accordingly, DYOR.
Anyhow, after a warm sunny morning, it’s now pissing with rain here. And by good fortune I’ve received a nice delivery from my online spirits supplier. I have a quality 18-y-o Deanston highland single malt, and an Ardnamurchan 10-y-o which despite being only 60% as expensive offers some of that coastal peatyness that the more sophisticated Deanston wouldn’t stoop to, plus a freebie sample of an apparently award-winning US single malt Blue Ridge Toasted Oak, from the mountains of Virginia that me and the dog have enjoyed visiting in times past. What does our resident scotch expert Malc make of this range of tastes on offer?
Ian, you flatter me, I am no expert, however , not having tasted either I would prefer the deanston which sounds like a cracker. Sure the Ardnamurchan will be good but for me depends on how peaty, I can take a little but not keen if too peaty. US one will be interesting comparison. Sounds like you will be having a good time and hope you enjoy. PS: Have you tried Glenrothes , they do some lovely malts , light and no peat.
Polanski now retweeting one of the most virulently antisemitic accounts in Ireland, a man who was literally invited to Tehran by the Iranian regime to join a propaganda junket.
lol
Three observations:
1. Polanski is seriously seriously stupid. Just a dumb fucker. This is his education, from Wiki:
"Polanski studied drama at Aberystwyth University from 2003 to 2006 and attended a drama school in Atlanta, Georgia in the United States."
DRAMA AT ABERYSTWYTH UNIVERSITY
Intellectually, he makes Jeremy Corbyn look like Carl Jung. He will make many more of these errors due to his idiocy, and he will self destruct
Meaning:
2. The Green implosion will come much sooner than expected as Polanski falls apart; then the Islamists might try to take over earlier than they anticipated
Meaning:
3. This could be a shred of hope for Starmer as the Greens sink back
Amid your usual stream of consciousness drivel, there might actually be some genuine insight buried there. The next GE might very well turn out to be - contrary to all current expectations - a mostly familiar Labour versus Tory contest (with the LDs holding their 75-odd seats on the side), with the question being which of Reform or the Greens has imploded first and the more dramatically. Bet accordingly, DYOR.
You cannot compare Reform to the Greens. Reform are led by the most capable politician in the country, by a distance, who is also excellent at campaigns - winning national elections - and who has recruited Tory heavyweights to his cause. Reform are the real deal, and they are united on all the migration/culture war issues, in line with public opinion, even if they are only now developing proper policies elsewhere
The Greens are a fundamentally unstable coalition of mad crank lefties, young fools who probably won't vote, and Islamists who secretly want to throw all the gay Green members in prison, or worse. And they are led by a low-IQ dork
Reform are here to stay at least until the GE. The Greens? - yes, they could vanish away
I would suggest that the Greens' current antisemitism blunders don't do their core support much harm. I think most who support them are extremely anti-Israel, and that is the only thing that really unites their Muslim and progressive factions.
What is far more concerning for them is the revelation that their deputy leader has encouraged suspended candidates to take legal action against the party. That is proof positive that his faction is simply using the party as a convenient taxi to power - rather the Greens co-opting the muslim vote.
Of which only council tax (within tight bounds) and road maintenance are actually within the local authority ambit.
They could have named schools, social care, bin collections, planning, housing, parks, buses (in some areas), street cleaning.
Exactly. Gaza's irrelevant IN THESE ELECTIONS! (Sorry about shouting!) Locally the big issue's housing as there's a proposal on the table for 6000 houses in a village nearby. Reform are shouting about Starmer, which is another irrelevance. It's only the Greens who are doing anything.
Given that voting probably won't change the result even in one's ward, the purpose is to indicate a preference, and I don't see any harm in indicating a national preference, as that's so much more important than, say, the precise form of bin collection.
6000 houses will, if all occupied mean about 20,000 people, increasing the size of the community five-fold.
Crime & Anti-Social Behaviour are at least partly with Councils, too.
Coucnils do have input into police priorities.
Also, so is pavement parking which is very prominent ASB.
Pavement parking is a complete non-issue. It's necessary in may of our streets, blanket banning it would be beyond stupid. (I'm typing this litterally whilst pushing a double buggy with two sleeping children across our housing estate past reams of pavement parked cars - not one has caused me the slightest problem).
I think you are so far out of touch that I honestly do not know where to start.
I think the best I can say is that you think from your viewpoint, in your particular situation, it is not currently a problem.
But pavements are pedestrian spaces, and they are for everyone.
Suspect the point about Gaza is not that it's a widely-shared voter concern, but that for a smallish but geographically-concentrated slice of the electorate, it's the issue.
The bigger question is this. How do politicians do anything about the first three issues without upsetting people for who the fourth one is key?
The political triumph of Reform is to convince a winning coalition of voters that there is so much waste and woke that it's possible to cut taxes and make people's surroundings better at the same time.
The political failure of Reform is that... there isn't really.
Whilst some of that isn't going to be easy, I'm not sure I'd be so pessimistic about Reform's opportunities to improve things. There is actually a reasonable amount of low hanging fruit which for various reasons government's of various colours have refused to fix.
At one extreme, the tax system and the £100k tax trap. It's really not going to be difficult to come up with a better system than the complete mess which we have at present.
At a different level, we're moving house at the moment. Why have I and my wife had to do (and pay for) three different ID checks (both Estate agents and my solicitors) at about £15 a pop? Fair enough to make the solicitors do it, but that should be sufficient. OK, it's only cost us £90, but multiply that up by the number of houses sold a year, and it's £50-£100mil a year wasted from the population's pockets every year. Trivial on one level, but also trivial to fix.
Take crime. 75% of the noticeable crime (burglaries, shop lifting, that sort of thing) in my small town is the product of half a dozen people. They should be locked up and the key thrown away, rather than doing odd bouts of six weeks inside here and there, plus the odd bit of community service. Three strikes and it's ten years inside would virtually solve low level crime. It would probably pay for itself quite quickly in reduced policing costs too.
£3mil got spent on the A road I use to get to work recently, because about 15 years ago there was a spate of motorcycle accidents (all of them idiots on motorbikes being idiots), and it briefly became categorised as dangerous, and that's how long it takes the bureaucracy to respond. It's currently categorised as so dangerous that it doesn't even qualify for yellow backs on the speed limit signs, however they've (completely unnecessarily) reduced the speed limit, covered everything in white paint and rumble strips and stuff up average speed cameras anyway. There should be a complete moratorium on these sorts of projects followed by a rigorous VFM evaluation before they are allowed to proceed - I can guarantee 95% of them will fail.
Don't even get me started on my local NHS trust, who (for instance) haven't yet discovered email, but insist on posting appointment notifications, even when there is no possibility of the notification arriving prior to the appointment. Also the complete wasted MRI slot I had where I informed them (as per their procedure) there was a risk I had metal splinters in my eyes prior to the day, and they somehow failed to have Xray provision available to check my eyes and my MRI had to be cancelled and the slot go unused.
I could go on, but you get the picture. Everywhere one looks, there are loads of easy wins. If Reform manage do 10% of them, they should make the UK a much better place.
Three strikes and 10 years imprisonment sounds good but you'd soon have a backlash and juries refusing to convict a shoplifter facing 10 years for pinching a bottle of water.
I have a trial in Aberdeen next week. Absolutely routine concerned in the supply of drugs. Lots of evidence. Not much value. But its in the High Court because s205B of the Criminal Procedure (S) Act said that a 3rd conviction for being concerned in the supply at indictment level has a minimum sentence of 5 years. So, we end up with a trial when we should have a plea. There is absolutely no incentive to plead because the Court cannot give a discount. And they won't give him any more given the value.
Minimum sentences have consequences. All too often in my experience not good ones.
I think you've got the opposite problem. The chap you're dealing with is classic low level scum class. He will be making people's lives a misery. He is persistent (hence he's up in front of the beak for the 3rd time for the same offence). The waste of your time is that he's going to only get 5 years, which means he'll be back making people's lives a misery in 2.5 years, and probably back in court shortly afterwards. He should be getting an actual 10 years behind bars. Not for his sake, but because if we actually want to reduce crime, you have to dispense with the scum class. And the only possible way to do that is unfortunately to keep there where they can't be scummy.
If you lock him up for 10years a go rather than 2.5, it will probably reduce his court appearances by 2/3rds over the time, so there's probably a financial saving in the courts system too, even if the actual trial costs a few bob.
Polanski now retweeting one of the most virulently antisemitic accounts in Ireland, a man who was literally invited to Tehran by the Iranian regime to join a propaganda junket.
lol
Three observations:
1. Polanski is seriously seriously stupid. Just a dumb fucker. This is his education, from Wiki:
"Polanski studied drama at Aberystwyth University from 2003 to 2006 and attended a drama school in Atlanta, Georgia in the United States."
DRAMA AT ABERYSTWYTH UNIVERSITY
Intellectually, he makes Jeremy Corbyn look like Carl Jung. He will make many more of these errors due to his idiocy, and he will self destruct
Meaning:
2. The Green implosion will come much sooner than expected as Polanski falls apart; then the Islamists might try to take over earlier than they anticipated
Meaning:
3. This could be a shred of hope for Starmer as the Greens sink back
Amid your usual stream of consciousness drivel, there might actually be some genuine insight buried there. The next GE might very well turn out to be - contrary to all current expectations - a mostly familiar Labour versus Tory contest (with the LDs holding their 75-odd seats on the side), with the question being which of Reform or the Greens has imploded first and the more dramatically. Bet accordingly, DYOR.
Anyhow, after a warm sunny morning, it’s now pissing with rain here. And by good fortune I’ve received a nice delivery from my online spirits supplier. I have a quality 18-y-o Deanston highland single malt, and an Ardnamurchan 10-y-o which despite being only 60% as expensive offers some of that coastal peatyness that the more sophisticated Deanston wouldn’t stoop to, plus a freebie sample of an apparently award-winning US single malt Blue Ridge Toasted Oak, from the mountains of Virginia that me and the dog have enjoyed visiting in times past. What does our resident scotch expert Malc make of this range of tastes on offer?
Ian, you flatter me, I am no expert, however , not having tasted either I would prefer the deanston which sounds like a cracker. Sure the Ardnamurchan will be good but for me depends on how peaty, I can take a little but not keen if too peaty. US one will be interesting comparison. Sounds like you will be having a good time and hope you enjoy. PS: Have you tried Glenrothes , they do some lovely malts , light and no peat.
I’m in Ardnamurchan just now. I’m hoping the distillery still has some bottles of Midgie available. It’s my favourite, although I haven’t had an Ardnamurchan I haven’t enjoyed.
Polanski now retweeting one of the most virulently antisemitic accounts in Ireland, a man who was literally invited to Tehran by the Iranian regime to join a propaganda junket.
lol
Three observations:
1. Polanski is seriously seriously stupid. Just a dumb fucker. This is his education, from Wiki:
"Polanski studied drama at Aberystwyth University from 2003 to 2006 and attended a drama school in Atlanta, Georgia in the United States."
DRAMA AT ABERYSTWYTH UNIVERSITY
Intellectually, he makes Jeremy Corbyn look like Carl Jung. He will make many more of these errors due to his idiocy, and he will self destruct
Meaning:
2. The Green implosion will come much sooner than expected as Polanski falls apart; then the Islamists might try to take over earlier than they anticipated
Meaning:
3. This could be a shred of hope for Starmer as the Greens sink back
Amid your usual stream of consciousness drivel, there might actually be some genuine insight buried there. The next GE might very well turn out to be - contrary to all current expectations - a mostly familiar Labour versus Tory contest (with the LDs holding their 75-odd seats on the side), with the question being which of Reform or the Greens has imploded first and the more dramatically. Bet accordingly, DYOR.
In three years, most likely both.
With Farage at the helm, Reform just HAS to go tits up in that time.
When you look at Farage's career, do you see an unsuccessful politician who never wins things and keeps fucking things up? Because Reality would like to have a word
He's the most successful, capable and consequential British politician since Blair
He very, very nearly fucked up Brexit with his solo poster campaign, trying to get out of the shadow of Boris.
Brexit was down to Boris, not Farage. If Farage had been the lead on Brexit, it would not have happened.
Polanski now retweeting one of the most virulently antisemitic accounts in Ireland, a man who was literally invited to Tehran by the Iranian regime to join a propaganda junket.
lol
Three observations:
1. Polanski is seriously seriously stupid. Just a dumb fucker. This is his education, from Wiki:
"Polanski studied drama at Aberystwyth University from 2003 to 2006 and attended a drama school in Atlanta, Georgia in the United States."
DRAMA AT ABERYSTWYTH UNIVERSITY
Intellectually, he makes Jeremy Corbyn look like Carl Jung. He will make many more of these errors due to his idiocy, and he will self destruct
Meaning:
2. The Green implosion will come much sooner than expected as Polanski falls apart; then the Islamists might try to take over earlier than they anticipated
Meaning:
3. This could be a shred of hope for Starmer as the Greens sink back
Amid your usual stream of consciousness drivel, there might actually be some genuine insight buried there. The next GE might very well turn out to be - contrary to all current expectations - a mostly familiar Labour versus Tory contest (with the LDs holding their 75-odd seats on the side), with the question being which of Reform or the Greens has imploded first and the more dramatically. Bet accordingly, DYOR.
In three years, most likely both.
With Farage at the helm, Reform just HAS to go tits up in that time.
The level of cope on here is something else.
It's certainly possible either or both of Reform or the Greens blow up on the lauchpad. I don't think I'd want to put down much money that's going to be the case, especially as the governing party seems focused entirely on blowing it's own feet off.
It's worth remembering that parties which are winning, and look like they might win tend to be united. The members, activists etc and see power in their grasp, and are willing to accept significant compromises in order to achieve it. It tends to be parties on the down that descend into factional infighting. Neither Green nor Reform are currently on a down - Reform may have drifted a little, but it is still leading the polls as it has done for over a year, and the Green's are presently hovering around their biggest vote share ever.
We received a Reform leaflet today. Delivered by the postie along with assorted flyers.
Vote Reform to get rid of Starmer was the message, with a bar chart illustration of Reform ahead of Labour, based on a Westminster opinion poll. I'm not sure how that translates to our ward.
I have reassured Wor Lass that even if we end up with three Reform councillors she won't be deported.
I’m sick to death of the right wing press to be honest. I suspect that Keir didn’t even know he had a niece and this wouldn’t have crossed his desk. Why is he getting the blame for selections that he has absolutely no involvement with whatsoever? 🤷🏼♂️
Polanski now retweeting one of the most virulently antisemitic accounts in Ireland, a man who was literally invited to Tehran by the Iranian regime to join a propaganda junket.
lol
Three observations:
1. Polanski is seriously seriously stupid. Just a dumb fucker. This is his education, from Wiki:
"Polanski studied drama at Aberystwyth University from 2003 to 2006 and attended a drama school in Atlanta, Georgia in the United States."
DRAMA AT ABERYSTWYTH UNIVERSITY
Intellectually, he makes Jeremy Corbyn look like Carl Jung. He will make many more of these errors due to his idiocy, and he will self destruct
Meaning:
2. The Green implosion will come much sooner than expected as Polanski falls apart; then the Islamists might try to take over earlier than they anticipated
Meaning:
3. This could be a shred of hope for Starmer as the Greens sink back
Amid your usual stream of consciousness drivel, there might actually be some genuine insight buried there. The next GE might very well turn out to be - contrary to all current expectations - a mostly familiar Labour versus Tory contest (with the LDs holding their 75-odd seats on the side), with the question being which of Reform or the Greens has imploded first and the more dramatically. Bet accordingly, DYOR.
Anyhow, after a warm sunny morning, it’s now pissing with rain here. And by good fortune I’ve received a nice delivery from my online spirits supplier. I have a quality 18-y-o Deanston highland single malt, and an Ardnamurchan 10-y-o which despite being only 60% as expensive offers some of that coastal peatyness that the more sophisticated Deanston wouldn’t stoop to, plus a freebie sample of an apparently award-winning US single malt Blue Ridge Toasted Oak, from the mountains of Virginia that me and the dog have enjoyed visiting in times past. What does our resident scotch expert Malc make of this range of tastes on offer?
Ian, you flatter me, I am no expert, however , not having tasted either I would prefer the deanston which sounds like a cracker. Sure the Ardnamurchan will be good but for me depends on how peaty, I can take a little but not keen if too peaty. US one will be interesting comparison. Sounds like you will be having a good time and hope you enjoy. PS: Have you tried Glenrothes , they do some lovely malts , light and no peat.
I’m in Ardnamurchan just now. I’m hoping the distillery still has some bottles of Midgie available. It’s my favourite, although I haven’t had an Ardnamurchan I haven’t enjoyed.
Sounds good Red, it gets good reviews and sounds like it would be excellent. Hopefully sun also shining up there for you , very pleasant down here.
I don't share @Leon's admiration for Farage as a politician. About the only thing he has ever won was Brexit and the extent to which he played a material part in that is highly contentious. As a Brexiteer myself I found his contributions dishonest and cringeworthy.
I do agree with his comments today about Polanski. It really says all that needs to be said about UK politics that someone with so little talent or judgment has got so far.
What I find dismaying is that Reform and the Greens are very likely to come first and second on Thursday in England. In Scotland the SNP will win but the gruesome twosome are likely to come second and third. In Wales Reform seem to be heading for second and the Greens will make good progress.
Do the majority of our population simply have no common sense? Are we so fed up with the banal incompetence of our mainstream parties that judgment has been completely suspended? This country is at serious risk of becoming both ungovernable and ungoverned.
I started last week thinking my vote would be a toss-up between Lib Lab or Green. I've never voted Green before so it looked like Lib or Lab as usual. Then I listened to SKS yesterday and one of Davey's henchpersons today and it suddenly became as clear as day...........
I don't share @Leon's admiration for Farage as a politician. About the only thing he has ever won was Brexit and the extent to which he played a material part in that is highly contentious. As a Brexiteer myself I found his contributions dishonest and cringeworthy.
I do agree with his comments today about Polanski. It really says all that needs to be said about UK politics that someone with so little talent or judgment has got so far.
What I find dismaying is that Reform and the Greens are very likely to come first and second on Thursday in England. In Scotland the SNP will win but the gruesome twosome are likely to come second and third. In Wales Reform seem to be heading for second and the Greens will make good progress.
Do the majority of our population simply have no common sense? Are we so fed up with the banal incompetence of our mainstream parties that judgment has been completely suspended? This country is at serious risk of becoming both ungovernable and ungoverned.
He won the fucking European elections in 2014, you stupid berk
An election to a body that, it turned out, the majority didn't even want to be members of. Where he proceeded to make an arse of himself. Quite an achievement in a completely pointless talking shop.
Didn't you used to be quite smart?
The REASON Cameron called the EU Brexit vote was precisely because Farage terrified him into doing it, by winning those European elections in 2014. That was Farage's explicit strategy and ambition - win in Europe to force change in Britain (because it is much harder to break through in Britain due to FPTP, in Europe it is PR so new parties can come through). Farage succeeded handsomely. Without Farage, no Brexit
Am I talking to a bunch of ten year olds here?
We are not going to agree on this. Cameron went for the Brexit referendum, against the advice of Osborne, in an attempt to hold the broad centre right coalition that normally dominates UK politics together. It worked for a time and gave him a majority in 2015. It works no longer because Farage has tempted away many of the anti EU supporters who previously voted Tory, splitting the centre right in 2.
The result was a Labour majority of well over 100 on a small share of the vote. That thinks that majority should be used to bring us back into the EU. What an achievement that is. He is a disrupter who falls out with everyone. He will do it again, very probably before the next GE.
Farage would, actually, have been better off joining the Tories after Brexit, and seeking the leadership. I recall him saying that he was more popular than Sunak with Tory members. In other words done a Trump-type takeover.
But he's an opportunist who never, until he got the £5m bung, thought of becoming PM. Good reasons for that.
We can't be certain even now that in his heart he is prepared to be PM. He has ways out by retiring or losing. I just don't know whether he has the whatever it is that some people have got to be prepared to do what PMs have to do and take all the blame, and in his case disappoint the ludicrous and contradictory expectations of millions of quite dim people, and all the other stuff.
My firm expectation is that one way or another he won't ever be PM. I would be unhappy in this case to be wrong, but the pain would be substantially ameliorated by the sheer fascination of what will happen next. Dull it would not be.
Interesting that in the latest forced PM choice polling Polanski actually beats Farage. Shows how divisive he is. Kemi beats him 2 to 1.
Of which only council tax (within tight bounds) and road maintenance are actually within the local authority ambit.
They could have named schools, social care, bin collections, planning, housing, parks, buses (in some areas), street cleaning.
Exactly. Gaza's irrelevant IN THESE ELECTIONS! (Sorry about shouting!) Locally the big issue's housing as there's a proposal on the table for 6000 houses in a village nearby. Reform are shouting about Starmer, which is another irrelevance. It's only the Greens who are doing anything.
Given that voting probably won't change the result even in one's ward, the purpose is to indicate a preference, and I don't see any harm in indicating a national preference, as that's so much more important than, say, the precise form of bin collection.
6000 houses will, if all occupied mean about 20,000 people, increasing the size of the community five-fold.
Crime & Anti-Social Behaviour are at least partly with Councils, too.
Coucnils do have input into police priorities.
Also, so is pavement parking which is very prominent ASB.
Pavement parking is a complete non-issue. It's necessary in may of our streets, blanket banning it would be beyond stupid. (I'm typing this litterally whilst pushing a double buggy with two sleeping children across our housing estate past reams of pavement parked cars - not one has caused me the slightest problem).
I think you are so far out of touch that I honestly do not know where to start.
I think the best I can say is that you think from your viewpoint, in your particular situation, it is not currently a problem.
But pavements are pedestrian spaces, and they are for everyone.
Other way round mate.
Pavement parking is a problem is some locations. It is utterly essential in others. 95% of it isn't problematic. Calling it "anti-social behaviour" is ridiculous. Anti-social behaviour is dog poo and graffiti, not stuff that is required for people living normal lives.
As I say, I regularly shove a double buggy (known in our household as "the juggernaut" as it's massive and awkward, especially with the toddler loaded on board) round the place, so I've some idea about what I speak.
A blanket ban is a moronic over reaction to a minor problem. I'm fine with councils designating problem areas as "no pavement parking", but a blanket ban would just mean ~20% of people in my town have nowhere to park their car, despite currently inconveniencing no-one. Like it or not, cars are essential for everyday life, and we can't decided lots of people can't have them just to make a little more room on some pavements.
Polanski now retweeting one of the most virulently antisemitic accounts in Ireland, a man who was literally invited to Tehran by the Iranian regime to join a propaganda junket.
lol
Three observations:
1. Polanski is seriously seriously stupid. Just a dumb fucker. This is his education, from Wiki:
"Polanski studied drama at Aberystwyth University from 2003 to 2006 and attended a drama school in Atlanta, Georgia in the United States."
DRAMA AT ABERYSTWYTH UNIVERSITY
Intellectually, he makes Jeremy Corbyn look like Carl Jung. He will make many more of these errors due to his idiocy, and he will self destruct
Meaning:
2. The Green implosion will come much sooner than expected as Polanski falls apart; then the Islamists might try to take over earlier than they anticipated
Meaning:
3. This could be a shred of hope for Starmer as the Greens sink back
Amid your usual stream of consciousness drivel, there might actually be some genuine insight buried there. The next GE might very well turn out to be - contrary to all current expectations - a mostly familiar Labour versus Tory contest (with the LDs holding their 75-odd seats on the side), with the question being which of Reform or the Greens has imploded first and the more dramatically. Bet accordingly, DYOR.
Anyhow, after a warm sunny morning, it’s now pissing with rain here. And by good fortune I’ve received a nice delivery from my online spirits supplier. I have a quality 18-y-o Deanston highland single malt, and an Ardnamurchan 10-y-o which despite being only 60% as expensive offers some of that coastal peatyness that the more sophisticated Deanston wouldn’t stoop to, plus a freebie sample of an apparently award-winning US single malt Blue Ridge Toasted Oak, from the mountains of Virginia that me and the dog have enjoyed visiting in times past. What does our resident scotch expert Malc make of this range of tastes on offer?
Ian, you flatter me, I am no expert, however , not having tasted either I would prefer the deanston which sounds like a cracker. Sure the Ardnamurchan will be good but for me depends on how peaty, I can take a little but not keen if too peaty. US one will be interesting comparison. Sounds like you will be having a good time and hope you enjoy. PS: Have you tried Glenrothes , they do some lovely malts , light and no peat.
I’m in Ardnamurchan just now. I’m hoping the distillery still has some bottles of Midgie available. It’s my favourite, although I haven’t had an Ardnamurchan I haven’t enjoyed.
Wonderful part of the world. Have driven it, but more recently I have viewed it from the Sound of Mull on the way from Oban to Barra.
Polanski now retweeting one of the most virulently antisemitic accounts in Ireland, a man who was literally invited to Tehran by the Iranian regime to join a propaganda junket.
lol
Three observations:
1. Polanski is seriously seriously stupid. Just a dumb fucker. This is his education, from Wiki:
"Polanski studied drama at Aberystwyth University from 2003 to 2006 and attended a drama school in Atlanta, Georgia in the United States."
DRAMA AT ABERYSTWYTH UNIVERSITY
Intellectually, he makes Jeremy Corbyn look like Carl Jung. He will make many more of these errors due to his idiocy, and he will self destruct
Meaning:
2. The Green implosion will come much sooner than expected as Polanski falls apart; then the Islamists might try to take over earlier than they anticipated
Meaning:
3. This could be a shred of hope for Starmer as the Greens sink back
Amid your usual stream of consciousness drivel, there might actually be some genuine insight buried there. The next GE might very well turn out to be - contrary to all current expectations - a mostly familiar Labour versus Tory contest (with the LDs holding their 75-odd seats on the side), with the question being which of Reform or the Greens has imploded first and the more dramatically. Bet accordingly, DYOR.
In three years, most likely both.
With Farage at the helm, Reform just HAS to go tits up in that time.
The level of cope on here is something else.
It's certainly possible either or both of Reform or the Greens blow up on the lauchpad. I don't think I'd want to put down much money that's going to be the case, especially as the governing party seems focused entirely on blowing it's own feet off.
It's worth remembering that parties which are winning, and look like they might win tend to be united. The members, activists etc and see power in their grasp, and are willing to accept significant compromises in order to achieve it. It tends to be parties on the down that descend into factional infighting. Neither Green nor Reform are currently on a down - Reform may have drifted a little, but it is still leading the polls as it has done for over a year, and the Green's are presently hovering around their biggest vote share ever.
One person's "cope" is another's assessment that both Reform and the Greens are massively overblown amateurs, who are going to be seriously exposed over the next three years.
Polanski now retweeting one of the most virulently antisemitic accounts in Ireland, a man who was literally invited to Tehran by the Iranian regime to join a propaganda junket.
lol
Three observations:
1. Polanski is seriously seriously stupid. Just a dumb fucker. This is his education, from Wiki:
"Polanski studied drama at Aberystwyth University from 2003 to 2006 and attended a drama school in Atlanta, Georgia in the United States."
DRAMA AT ABERYSTWYTH UNIVERSITY
Intellectually, he makes Jeremy Corbyn look like Carl Jung. He will make many more of these errors due to his idiocy, and he will self destruct
Meaning:
2. The Green implosion will come much sooner than expected as Polanski falls apart; then the Islamists might try to take over earlier than they anticipated
Meaning:
3. This could be a shred of hope for Starmer as the Greens sink back
Amid your usual stream of consciousness drivel, there might actually be some genuine insight buried there. The next GE might very well turn out to be - contrary to all current expectations - a mostly familiar Labour versus Tory contest (with the LDs holding their 75-odd seats on the side), with the question being which of Reform or the Greens has imploded first and the more dramatically. Bet accordingly, DYOR.
You cannot compare Reform to the Greens. Reform are led by the most capable politician in the country, by a distance, who is also excellent at campaigns - winning national elections - and who has recruited Tory heavyweights to his cause. Reform are the real deal, and they are united on all the migration/culture war issues, in line with public opinion, even if they are only now developing proper policies elsewhere
The Greens are a fundamentally unstable coalition of mad crank lefties, young fools who probably won't vote, and Islamists who secretly want to throw all the gay Green members in prison, or worse. And they are led by a low-IQ dork
Reform are here to stay at least until the GE. The Greens? - yes, they could vanish away
I would suggest that the Greens' current antisemitism blunders don't do their core support much harm. I think most who support them are extremely anti-Israel, and that is the only thing that really unites their Muslim and progressive factions.
What is far more concerning for them is the revelation that their deputy leader has encouraged suspended candidates to take legal action against the party. That is proof positive that his faction is simply using the party as a convenient taxi to power - rather the Greens co-opting the muslim vote.
Jeez - so many self-proclaimed anti-racist progressives on here blithely unconcerned by racism and hatred against one of the smallest minority groups there is, despite all the evidence of criminal actions against that minority up to and including murder. Also intellectually incapable of understanding that many people hate Israel because they hate Jews.
And some of them want to join a party whose reaction to the discovery that one of their candidates wrote about "Jewish cockroaches" is to say that the candidate should not have published the comment. Not that he was wrong to think this or say it but to publish it and so embarrass the party.
I’m sick to death of the right wing press to be honest. I suspect that Keir didn’t even know he had a niece and this wouldn’t have crossed his desk. Why is he getting the blame for selections that he has absolutely no involvement with whatsoever? 🤷🏼♂️
I don't share @Leon's admiration for Farage as a politician. About the only thing he has ever won was Brexit and the extent to which he played a material part in that is highly contentious. As a Brexiteer myself I found his contributions dishonest and cringeworthy.
I do agree with his comments today about Polanski. It really says all that needs to be said about UK politics that someone with so little talent or judgment has got so far.
What I find dismaying is that Reform and the Greens are very likely to come first and second on Thursday in England. In Scotland the SNP will win but the gruesome twosome are likely to come second and third. In Wales Reform seem to be heading for second and the Greens will make good progress.
Do the majority of our population simply have no common sense? Are we so fed up with the banal incompetence of our mainstream parties that judgment has been completely suspended? This country is at serious risk of becoming both ungovernable and ungoverned.
I started last week thinking my vote would be a toss-up between Lib Lab or Green. I've never voted Green before so it looked like Lib or Lab as usual. Then I listened to SKS yesterday and one of Davey's henchpersons today and it suddenly became as clear as day...........
The Future's Bright. The Future's Green
Green for me, but only for the locals. Chap’s more like the sort of Liberal I used to campaign for back in the 70’s.
Mind, the General Election will almost certainly be a different matter, should I live another three years.
I’m sick to death of the right wing press to be honest. I suspect that Keir didn’t even know he had a niece and this wouldn’t have crossed his desk. Why is he getting the blame for selections that he has absolutely no involvement with whatsoever? 🤷🏼♂️
If you look at the replies, there are a lot of people who don't understand that Turner was being sarcastic
I don't share @Leon's admiration for Farage as a politician. About the only thing he has ever won was Brexit and the extent to which he played a material part in that is highly contentious. As a Brexiteer myself I found his contributions dishonest and cringeworthy.
I do agree with his comments today about Polanski. It really says all that needs to be said about UK politics that someone with so little talent or judgment has got so far.
What I find dismaying is that Reform and the Greens are very likely to come first and second on Thursday in England. In Scotland the SNP will win but the gruesome twosome are likely to come second and third. In Wales Reform seem to be heading for second and the Greens will make good progress.
Do the majority of our population simply have no common sense? Are we so fed up with the banal incompetence of our mainstream parties that judgment has been completely suspended? This country is at serious risk of becoming both ungovernable and ungoverned.
I started last week thinking my vote would be a toss-up between Lib Lab or Green. I've never voted Green before so it looked like Lib or Lab as usual. Then I listened to SKS yesterday and one of Davey's henchpersons today and it suddenly became as clear as day...........
The Future's Bright. The Future's Green
Green for me, but only for the locals. Chap’s more like the sort of Liberal I used to campaign for back in the 70’s.
Mind, the General Election will almost certainly be a different matter, should I live another three years.
Hopefully there will be a Labour recovery so they decide to hold the GE sooner than in three years.
Suspect the point about Gaza is not that it's a widely-shared voter concern, but that for a smallish but geographically-concentrated slice of the electorate, it's the issue.
The bigger question is this. How do politicians do anything about the first three issues without upsetting people for who the fourth one is key?
The political triumph of Reform is to convince a winning coalition of voters that there is so much waste and woke that it's possible to cut taxes and make people's surroundings better at the same time.
The political failure of Reform is that... there isn't really.
Whilst some of that isn't going to be easy, I'm not sure I'd be so pessimistic about Reform's opportunities to improve things. There is actually a reasonable amount of low hanging fruit which for various reasons government's of various colours have refused to fix.
At one extreme, the tax system and the £100k tax trap. It's really not going to be difficult to come up with a better system than the complete mess which we have at present.
At a different level, we're moving house at the moment. Why have I and my wife had to do (and pay for) three different ID checks (both Estate agents and my solicitors) at about £15 a pop? Fair enough to make the solicitors do it, but that should be sufficient. OK, it's only cost us £90, but multiply that up by the number of houses sold a year, and it's £50-£100mil a year wasted from the population's pockets every year. Trivial on one level, but also trivial to fix.
Take crime. 75% of the noticeable crime (burglaries, shop lifting, that sort of thing) in my small town is the product of half a dozen people. They should be locked up and the key thrown away, rather than doing odd bouts of six weeks inside here and there, plus the odd bit of community service. Three strikes and it's ten years inside would virtually solve low level crime. It would probably pay for itself quite quickly in reduced policing costs too.
£3mil got spent on the A road I use to get to work recently, because about 15 years ago there was a spate of motorcycle accidents (all of them idiots on motorbikes being idiots), and it briefly became categorised as dangerous, and that's how long it takes the bureaucracy to respond. It's currently categorised as so dangerous that it doesn't even qualify for yellow backs on the speed limit signs, however they've (completely unnecessarily) reduced the speed limit, covered everything in white paint and rumble strips and stuff up average speed cameras anyway. There should be a complete moratorium on these sorts of projects followed by a rigorous VFM evaluation before they are allowed to proceed - I can guarantee 95% of them will fail.
Don't even get me started on my local NHS trust, who (for instance) haven't yet discovered email, but insist on posting appointment notifications, even when there is no possibility of the notification arriving prior to the appointment. Also the complete wasted MRI slot I had where I informed them (as per their procedure) there was a risk I had metal splinters in my eyes prior to the day, and they somehow failed to have Xray provision available to check my eyes and my MRI had to be cancelled and the slot go unused.
I could go on, but you get the picture. Everywhere one looks, there are loads of easy wins. If Reform manage do 10% of them, they should make the UK a much better place.
Three strikes and 10 years imprisonment sounds good but you'd soon have a backlash and juries refusing to convict a shoplifter facing 10 years for pinching a bottle of water.
I have a trial in Aberdeen next week. Absolutely routine concerned in the supply of drugs. Lots of evidence. Not much value. But its in the High Court because s205B of the Criminal Procedure (S) Act said that a 3rd conviction for being concerned in the supply at indictment level has a minimum sentence of 5 years. So, we end up with a trial when we should have a plea. There is absolutely no incentive to plead because the Court cannot give a discount. And they won't give him any more given the value.
Minimum sentences have consequences. All too often in my experience not good ones.
I think you've got the opposite problem. The chap you're dealing with is classic low level scum class. He will be making people's lives a misery. He is persistent (hence he's up in front of the beak for the 3rd time for the same offence). The waste of your time is that he's going to only get 5 years, which means he'll be back making people's lives a misery in 2.5 years, and probably back in court shortly afterwards. He should be getting an actual 10 years behind bars. Not for his sake, but because if we actually want to reduce crime, you have to dispense with the scum class. And the only possible way to do that is unfortunately to keep there where they can't be scummy.
If you lock him up for 10years a go rather than 2.5, it will probably reduce his court appearances by 2/3rds over the time, so there's probably a financial saving in the courts system too, even if the actual trial costs a few bob.
Or we could be radical and rethink all this. Two issues: Firstly, we demonise suppliers (for whom I have no fondness) while soft pedalling on users when users are the ones who can stop all this from starting in the first place. No users = no suppliers, just as no handlers = many fewer thieves. We don't treat handlers as less culpable than thieves. The penalty for use should be substantially greater than that for supply but we dare not do it because it would seriously criminalise people who we don't think are criminal, many of whom went to the right sort of achool.
Secondly, decriminalise the lot. it's a medical and social issue. Like alcohol, being a NEET, sugar in fizzy drinks, benefits junkieism and being an idiot.
Polanski now retweeting one of the most virulently antisemitic accounts in Ireland, a man who was literally invited to Tehran by the Iranian regime to join a propaganda junket.
lol
Three observations:
1. Polanski is seriously seriously stupid. Just a dumb fucker. This is his education, from Wiki:
"Polanski studied drama at Aberystwyth University from 2003 to 2006 and attended a drama school in Atlanta, Georgia in the United States."
DRAMA AT ABERYSTWYTH UNIVERSITY
Intellectually, he makes Jeremy Corbyn look like Carl Jung. He will make many more of these errors due to his idiocy, and he will self destruct
Meaning:
2. The Green implosion will come much sooner than expected as Polanski falls apart; then the Islamists might try to take over earlier than they anticipated
Meaning:
3. This could be a shred of hope for Starmer as the Greens sink back
Amid your usual stream of consciousness drivel, there might actually be some genuine insight buried there. The next GE might very well turn out to be - contrary to all current expectations - a mostly familiar Labour versus Tory contest (with the LDs holding their 75-odd seats on the side), with the question being which of Reform or the Greens has imploded first and the more dramatically. Bet accordingly, DYOR.
You cannot compare Reform to the Greens. Reform are led by the most capable politician in the country, by a distance, who is also excellent at campaigns - winning national elections - and who has recruited Tory heavyweights to his cause. Reform are the real deal, and they are united on all the migration/culture war issues, in line with public opinion, even if they are only now developing proper policies elsewhere
The Greens are a fundamentally unstable coalition of mad crank lefties, young fools who probably won't vote, and Islamists who secretly want to throw all the gay Green members in prison, or worse. And they are led by a low-IQ dork
Reform are here to stay at least until the GE. The Greens? - yes, they could vanish away
I would suggest that the Greens' current antisemitism blunders don't do their core support much harm. I think most who support them are extremely anti-Israel, and that is the only thing that really unites their Muslim and progressive factions.
What is far more concerning for them is the revelation that their deputy leader has encouraged suspended candidates to take legal action against the party. That is proof positive that his faction is simply using the party as a convenient taxi to power - rather the Greens co-opting the muslim vote.
Jeez - so many self-proclaimed anti-racist progressives on here blithely unconcerned by racism and hatred against one of the smallest minority groups there is, despite all the evidence of criminal actions against that minority up to and including murder. Also intellectually incapable of understanding that many people hate Israel because they hate Jews.
And some of them want to join a party whose reaction to the discovery that one of their candidates wrote about "Jewish cockroaches" is to say that the candidate should not have published the comment. Not that he was wrong to think this or say it but to publish it and so embarrass the party.
Yuck!
One thing for which we should all be grateful to Jeremy Corbyn is for demonstrating (if it was needed) that anti-racist campaigners can absolutely be racist or be utterly blind to racism among those who they are friends with or who support them.
I go back to the infamous mural which some people still sought to defend as not obviously anti-semitic, but which Corbyn himself realised he could not use that excuse if claiming to be one of the most committed anti-racist people out there, so instead claimed not to have looked at it properly before commenting on it.
Sorry, just catching up, presumably most of the intervening 6 hours is other PBers ridiculing this AI generated video that rips off Dalio's likeness, and has an unmoderated comments section filled with bots pushing fraudulent financial advisers ?
I don't share @Leon's admiration for Farage as a politician. About the only thing he has ever won was Brexit and the extent to which he played a material part in that is highly contentious. As a Brexiteer myself I found his contributions dishonest and cringeworthy.
I do agree with his comments today about Polanski. It really says all that needs to be said about UK politics that someone with so little talent or judgment has got so far.
What I find dismaying is that Reform and the Greens are very likely to come first and second on Thursday in England. In Scotland the SNP will win but the gruesome twosome are likely to come second and third. In Wales Reform seem to be heading for second and the Greens will make good progress.
Do the majority of our population simply have no common sense? Are we so fed up with the banal incompetence of our mainstream parties that judgment has been completely suspended? This country is at serious risk of becoming both ungovernable and ungoverned.
I started last week thinking my vote would be a toss-up between Lib Lab or Green. I've never voted Green before so it looked like Lib or Lab as usual. Then I listened to SKS yesterday and one of Davey's henchpersons today and it suddenly became as clear as day...........
So many people who would never consider voting Green when they were an environmentalist party, but are now giving them their vote when they've become infested with antisemites.
Polanski now retweeting one of the most virulently antisemitic accounts in Ireland, a man who was literally invited to Tehran by the Iranian regime to join a propaganda junket.
lol
Three observations:
1. Polanski is seriously seriously stupid. Just a dumb fucker. This is his education, from Wiki:
"Polanski studied drama at Aberystwyth University from 2003 to 2006 and attended a drama school in Atlanta, Georgia in the United States."
DRAMA AT ABERYSTWYTH UNIVERSITY
Intellectually, he makes Jeremy Corbyn look like Carl Jung. He will make many more of these errors due to his idiocy, and he will self destruct
Meaning:
2. The Green implosion will come much sooner than expected as Polanski falls apart; then the Islamists might try to take over earlier than they anticipated
Meaning:
3. This could be a shred of hope for Starmer as the Greens sink back
Amid your usual stream of consciousness drivel, there might actually be some genuine insight buried there. The next GE might very well turn out to be - contrary to all current expectations - a mostly familiar Labour versus Tory contest (with the LDs holding their 75-odd seats on the side), with the question being which of Reform or the Greens has imploded first and the more dramatically. Bet accordingly, DYOR.
Anyhow, after a warm sunny morning, it’s now pissing with rain here. And by good fortune I’ve received a nice delivery from my online spirits supplier. I have a quality 18-y-o Deanston highland single malt, and an Ardnamurchan 10-y-o which despite being only 60% as expensive offers some of that coastal peatyness that the more sophisticated Deanston wouldn’t stoop to, plus a freebie sample of an apparently award-winning US single malt Blue Ridge Toasted Oak, from the mountains of Virginia that me and the dog have enjoyed visiting in times past. What does our resident scotch expert Malc make of this range of tastes on offer?
Ian, you flatter me, I am no expert, however , not having tasted either I would prefer the deanston which sounds like a cracker. Sure the Ardnamurchan will be good but for me depends on how peaty, I can take a little but not keen if too peaty. US one will be interesting comparison. Sounds like you will be having a good time and hope you enjoy. PS: Have you tried Glenrothes , they do some lovely malts , light and no peat.
I’m in Ardnamurchan just now. I’m hoping the distillery still has some bottles of Midgie available. It’s my favourite, although I haven’t had an Ardnamurchan I haven’t enjoyed.
Sounds good Red, it gets good reviews and sounds like it would be excellent. Hopefully sun also shining up there for you , very pleasant down here.
Clouded over this afternoon, but not cold. What’s you views on next Thursday’s election, and, more importantly, Glen Scotia Double Cask?
Sorry, just catching up, presumably most of the intervening 6 hours is other PBers ridiculing this AI generated video that rips off Dalio's likeness, and has an unmoderated comments section filled with bots pushing fraudulent financial advisers ?
I was hoping if it was nonsense someone would let me know. A pity though as it's simply explained
I don't share @Leon's admiration for Farage as a politician. About the only thing he has ever won was Brexit and the extent to which he played a material part in that is highly contentious. As a Brexiteer myself I found his contributions dishonest and cringeworthy.
I do agree with his comments today about Polanski. It really says all that needs to be said about UK politics that someone with so little talent or judgment has got so far.
What I find dismaying is that Reform and the Greens are very likely to come first and second on Thursday in England. In Scotland the SNP will win but the gruesome twosome are likely to come second and third. In Wales Reform seem to be heading for second and the Greens will make good progress.
Do the majority of our population simply have no common sense? Are we so fed up with the banal incompetence of our mainstream parties that judgment has been completely suspended? This country is at serious risk of becoming both ungovernable and ungoverned.
I started last week thinking my vote would be a toss-up between Lib Lab or Green. I've never voted Green before so it looked like Lib or Lab as usual. Then I listened to SKS yesterday and one of Davey's henchpersons today and it suddenly became as clear as day...........
The Future's Bright. The Future's Green
Thats the final indicator; Reform landslide.
And then they find out what a daft name for a party it was. It's hardly going to sell papers internationally. Or even get a second look. Better than 'Runcible Spoon' or whatever Lowe calls his party mind.
I don't share @Leon's admiration for Farage as a politician. About the only thing he has ever won was Brexit and the extent to which he played a material part in that is highly contentious. As a Brexiteer myself I found his contributions dishonest and cringeworthy.
I do agree with his comments today about Polanski. It really says all that needs to be said about UK politics that someone with so little talent or judgment has got so far.
What I find dismaying is that Reform and the Greens are very likely to come first and second on Thursday in England. In Scotland the SNP will win but the gruesome twosome are likely to come second and third. In Wales Reform seem to be heading for second and the Greens will make good progress.
Do the majority of our population simply have no common sense? Are we so fed up with the banal incompetence of our mainstream parties that judgment has been completely suspended? This country is at serious risk of becoming both ungovernable and ungoverned.
He won the fucking European elections in 2014, you stupid berk
An election to a body that, it turned out, the majority didn't even want to be members of. Where he proceeded to make an arse of himself. Quite an achievement in a completely pointless talking shop.
Didn't you used to be quite smart?
The REASON Cameron called the EU Brexit vote was precisely because Farage terrified him into doing it, by winning those European elections in 2014. That was Farage's explicit strategy and ambition - win in Europe to force change in Britain (because it is much harder to break through in Britain due to FPTP, in Europe it is PR so new parties can come through). Farage succeeded handsomely. Without Farage, no Brexit
Am I talking to a bunch of ten year olds here?
We are not going to agree on this. Cameron went for the Brexit referendum, against the advice of Osborne, in an attempt to hold the broad centre right coalition that normally dominates UK politics together. It worked for a time and gave him a majority in 2015. It works no longer because Farage has tempted away many of the anti EU supporters who previously voted Tory, splitting the centre right in 2.
The result was a Labour majority of well over 100 on a small share of the vote. That thinks that majority should be used to bring us back into the EU. What an achievement that is. He is a disrupter who falls out with everyone. He will do it again, very probably before the next GE.
The trigger for that pledge was UKIP surging in polls and elections. One definitely followed the other and thus Brexit.
I had not noticed this one. New powers to enforce on pavement parking given to Councils in England under the English Devolution and Community Empowerment Act , which was given Royal Assent last Wednesday.
I hope that will help resolve the "Police: Talk to the Council. Council: Talk to the Police" black hole that causes such problems at present.
West Ham's goal difference is horrible. As is their run-in - Arsenal, Newcastle, Leeds.
Their only hope is Spurs are wretched - and Chelsea might have the delicious chance to send them down (Villa, Leeds, Chelsea, Everton is their tough run-in).
West Ham's goal difference is horrible. As is their run-in - Arsenal, Newcastle, Leeds.
Their only hope is Spurs are wretched - and Chelsea might have the delicious chance to send them down (Villa, Leeds, Chelsea, Everton is their tough run-in).
Not that tough. Villa: fairly comfortable in fifth and not with a lot to play for. Leeds: on a good run but surely beatable. Chelsea: shit at the moment. Everton: ho-hum. Even Spurs can muster four points from that lot, which ahould see them safe.
Off topic: Ending majority/minority districts will, net, help which party?
Probably the Democratic Party. Probably.
Here’s why: In a successful gerrymander, the voters of the losing party are crammed into a few districts; the voters of the winning party are spread out so as to give the party a majority of reasonably safe districts.
Majority/minority districts usually have high concentrations of Democrats. Political operatives have noticed this; I have seen examples where it looked to me as if unscrupulous Republicans had cooperated with minority Democrats to set up those majority/minority districts.
(If you are like me, you will be distressed by the lack of any party competition in 20 House districts, and the lack of serious competition in many more.)
For the record: I am in Washington’s 1st House district.
West Ham's goal difference is horrible. As is their run-in - Arsenal, Newcastle, Leeds.
Their only hope is Spurs are wretched - and Chelsea might have the delicious chance to send them down (Villa, Leeds, Chelsea, Everton is their tough run-in).
Not that tough. Villa: fairly comfortable in fifth and not with a lot to play for. Leeds: on a good run but surely beatable. Chelsea: shit at the moment. Everton: ho-hum. Even Spurs can muster four points from that lot, which ahould see them safe.
I don't see 4 points seeing them safe at all. They are currently 2 points behind West Ham so a single win from the Hammers would put them ahead of Spurs if they only get 4 more points. I would not bank on West Ham failing to get a win out of the last 3 games.
I would say Spurs need 5 or 6 points to be safe.
Edit: And as a West Ham fan obviously I hope Spurs don't make it.
Polanski now retweeting one of the most virulently antisemitic accounts in Ireland, a man who was literally invited to Tehran by the Iranian regime to join a propaganda junket.
lol
Three observations:
1. Polanski is seriously seriously stupid. Just a dumb fucker. This is his education, from Wiki:
"Polanski studied drama at Aberystwyth University from 2003 to 2006 and attended a drama school in Atlanta, Georgia in the United States."
DRAMA AT ABERYSTWYTH UNIVERSITY
Intellectually, he makes Jeremy Corbyn look like Carl Jung. He will make many more of these errors due to his idiocy, and he will self destruct
Meaning:
2. The Green implosion will come much sooner than expected as Polanski falls apart; then the Islamists might try to take over earlier than they anticipated
Meaning:
3. This could be a shred of hope for Starmer as the Greens sink back
Amid your usual stream of consciousness drivel, there might actually be some genuine insight buried there. The next GE might very well turn out to be - contrary to all current expectations - a mostly familiar Labour versus Tory contest (with the LDs holding their 75-odd seats on the side), with the question being which of Reform or the Greens has imploded first and the more dramatically. Bet accordingly, DYOR.
Anyhow, after a warm sunny morning, it’s now pissing with rain here. And by good fortune I’ve received a nice delivery from my online spirits supplier. I have a quality 18-y-o Deanston highland single malt, and an Ardnamurchan 10-y-o which despite being only 60% as expensive offers some of that coastal peatyness that the more sophisticated Deanston wouldn’t stoop to, plus a freebie sample of an apparently award-winning US single malt Blue Ridge Toasted Oak, from the mountains of Virginia that me and the dog have enjoyed visiting in times past. What does our resident scotch expert Malc make of this range of tastes on offer?
Ian, you flatter me, I am no expert, however , not having tasted either I would prefer the deanston which sounds like a cracker. Sure the Ardnamurchan will be good but for me depends on how peaty, I can take a little but not keen if too peaty. US one will be interesting comparison. Sounds like you will be having a good time and hope you enjoy. PS: Have you tried Glenrothes , they do some lovely malts , light and no peat.
I’m in Ardnamurchan just now. I’m hoping the distillery still has some bottles of Midgie available. It’s my favourite, although I haven’t had an Ardnamurchan I haven’t enjoyed.
Sounds good Red, it gets good reviews and sounds like it would be excellent. Hopefully sun also shining up there for you , very pleasant down here.
Clouded over this afternoon, but not cold. What’s you views on next Thursday’s election, and, more importantly, Glen Scotia Double Cask?
Well hoping SNP skoosh it as they are only option for independence so will hold my nose and vote for them , remainder are just English parties that will do nothing for us. Never tried the Glen Scotia but it sounds very nice indeed, will keep it in mind.
I had not noticed this one. New powers to enforce on pavement parking given to Councils in England under the English Devolution and Community Empowerment Act , which was given Royal Assent last Wednesday.
I hope that will help resolve the "Police: Talk to the Council. Council: Talk to the Police" black hole that causes such problems at present.
West Ham's goal difference is horrible. As is their run-in - Arsenal, Newcastle, Leeds.
Their only hope is Spurs are wretched - and Chelsea might have the delicious chance to send them down (Villa, Leeds, Chelsea, Everton is their tough run-in).
Not that tough. Villa: fairly comfortable in fifth and not with a lot to play for. Leeds: on a good run but surely beatable. Chelsea: shit at the moment. Everton: ho-hum. Even Spurs can muster four points from that lot, which ahould see them safe.
West Ham's goal difference is horrible. As is their run-in - Arsenal, Newcastle, Leeds.
Their only hope is Spurs are wretched - and Chelsea might have the delicious chance to send them down (Villa, Leeds, Chelsea, Everton is their tough run-in).
Not that tough. Villa: fairly comfortable in fifth and not with a lot to play for. Leeds: on a good run but surely beatable. Chelsea: shit at the moment. Everton: ho-hum. Even Spurs can muster four points from that lot, which ahould see them safe.
I don't see 4 points seeing them safe at all. They are currently 2 points behind West Ham so a single win from the Hammers would put them ahead of Spurs if they only get 4 more points. I would not bank on West Ham failing to get a win out of the last 3 games.
I would say Spurs need 5 or 6 points to be safe.
Edit: And as a West Ham fan obviously I hope Spurs don't make it.
My inlaws are Spurs fans and have been doom and gllom about their team since I have known them. As someone whose favourite professional team is Stockport County it is hard to sympathise!
West Ham's goal difference is horrible. As is their run-in - Arsenal, Newcastle, Leeds.
Their only hope is Spurs are wretched - and Chelsea might have the delicious chance to send them down (Villa, Leeds, Chelsea, Everton is their tough run-in).
Not that tough. Villa: fairly comfortable in fifth and not with a lot to play for. Leeds: on a good run but surely beatable. Chelsea: shit at the moment. Everton: ho-hum. Even Spurs can muster four points from that lot, which ahould see them safe.
I don't see 4 points seeing them safe at all. They are currently 2 points behind West Ham so a single win from the Hammers would put them ahead of Spurs if they only get 4 more points. I would not bank on West Ham failing to get a win out of the last 3 games.
I would say Spurs need 5 or 6 points to be safe.
Edit: And as a West Ham fan obviously I hope Spurs don't make it.
Newcastle have won today but their form has been wretched. Leeds will probably be safe by the time West Ham play them. I don't see West Ham's run-in to be that much trickier than Spurs'.
As I said, if that is the NEV on Thursday the champagne corks will be popping in the Starmer’s Downing Street flat on Friday. Even if Reform win Team Starmer can spin beating the Tories, Greens and LDs as a relative victory
The LibDems always outperform on NEV compared to where they are in national polling.
I fully expect them to be ahead of Labour and Conservative.
Last year Reform won the NEV with 30% but Labour got 20%, ahead of the LDs on 17%, the Tories on 15% and the Greens on 11%.
The LDs were second on seats won last year after Reform but Labour still beat the LDs on NEV, this year the seats up are less rural and small town and more big city and urban which will favour Labour more than last year
So even if normal operations resumed by Monday to avoid the worse, things are likely to be messed up for some months at least.
Exactly.
And the length of the *additional* gap gets worse as the supply gap gets longer.
That is, the longer and deeper the loss of oil and gas gets, more and more facilities will be taken off line. Wells shut down. Then gasification and regas trains for LNG, refineries for oil.
These are massive installations, involving huge numbers in terms of temperature, pressure and volume. Once shut down completely, restarting is a slow and expensive process.
So on top of the gap caused by LNG and oil not being there, the restart will take longer and longer, the bigger the gap.
Though there is an upper limit, of course, when everything that can be taken off line, has been.
West Ham's goal difference is horrible. As is their run-in - Arsenal, Newcastle, Leeds.
Their only hope is Spurs are wretched - and Chelsea might have the delicious chance to send them down (Villa, Leeds, Chelsea, Everton is their tough run-in).
Not that tough. Villa: fairly comfortable in fifth and not with a lot to play for. Leeds: on a good run but surely beatable. Chelsea: shit at the moment. Everton: ho-hum. Even Spurs can muster four points from that lot, which ahould see them safe.
I don't see 4 points seeing them safe at all. They are currently 2 points behind West Ham so a single win from the Hammers would put them ahead of Spurs if they only get 4 more points. I would not bank on West Ham failing to get a win out of the last 3 games.
I would say Spurs need 5 or 6 points to be safe.
Edit: And as a West Ham fan obviously I hope Spurs don't make it.
Today's 3-0 loss was a little sub-optimal, however
Comments
With Farage at the helm, Reform just HAS to go tits up in that time.
To the specific point in your reply: quite. Much easier not to defend it.
The Greens are a fundamentally unstable coalition of mad crank lefties, young fools who probably won't vote, and Islamists who secretly want to throw all the gay Green members in prison, or worse. And they are led by a low-IQ dork
Reform are here to stay at least until the GE. The Greens? - yes, they could vanish away
I fully expect them to be ahead of Labour and Conservative.
The valid comparison is that Reform is sinking the Tory vote whereas the Greens are sinking the Labour vote. Whichever collapses first and most dramatically, the corresponding major party is likely to win next time. It sounds to me like you’re actually predicting that your best mate Starmer’s party might be the better placed?
Hopefully there’s enough of a split vote between the Tories and Reform . I don’t want the shame of being under a Reform council !
He's the most successful, capable and consequential British politician since Blair
I'm going to need to read this again to see if anything may be at all sensible.
The time after that to look will be when the non anorak voters (almost all of them) start reflecting on who they most don't want running the country and how to vote in that light. This might start late next year as from the start of 2028 an election could be on the way.
For now, compare Reform boosterism with where the money is going from punters. Current conclusions are that probably Reform won't get most seats, and much more probably Reform won't win a majority.
You cannot take headline VI figures and directly extrapolate these to local election VI. Aside from tactical votes (whose effect is I think significantly diluted in local vs general elections), there is precious little inspiring anyone to the polls to vote for Labour this time around.
I think Reform and LDs will outperform polling VI in England, Greens probably will also. Tories and Labour will suffer.
1. He secured the Brexit vote (by terrifying the Tories with UKIP), he then helped win that vote. Withour Farage, no Brexit
2. He has now created or recreated TWO parties that have become major national contenders - first UKIP, now Reform
3. As leader, he has won national elections (to the European parliament, pre Brexit)
4. He has now secured a Westminster constituency, which was the last desperate accusation - "you've never been an MP" - his detractors used to hurl at him
Of course, he's got major flaws. He falls out with people. He's tetchy. His grasp of wider policies (beyond the EU and now immigration) seems "hazy". He's getting on a bit, too
But look at his opponents. Starmer, Badenoch, Swinney, Davey, Polanski. He's a mighty political talent compared to any of them
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_European_Parliament_election_in_the_United_Kingdom
"Electorally unsuccessful". lol
Just look at his May Day military march in a few days.
I do agree with his comments today about Polanski. It really says all that needs to be said about UK politics that someone with so little talent or judgment has got so far.
What I find dismaying is that Reform and the Greens are very likely to come first and second on Thursday in England. In Scotland the SNP will win but the gruesome twosome are likely to come second and third. In Wales Reform seem to be heading for second and the Greens will make good progress.
Do the majority of our population simply have no common sense? Are we so fed up with the banal incompetence of our mainstream parties that judgment has been completely suspended? This country is at serious risk of becoming both ungovernable and ungoverned.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_European_Parliament_election_in_the_United_Kingdom
"Electorally unsuccessful". lol
I am not some doting admirer of Farage. I just acknowlewdge political talent - and success - when I see it
eg As I have often said on here. Alex Salmond was one of the best UK politicians of our time. I abhorred his desire to break up Britain and I am very glad he failed. But was he a good politician? Yes, very good. Head and shoulders above any recent UK prime minister
Winning the Brexit campaign is easier than executing a brilliant Brexit deal and future. Being right about the future is easier if your policies are not put into effect and you can change as you go along.
He has never yet had to show that he is capable of recruiting, implementing and retaining an outstanding top team to run the country. He has never yet had to satisfy both his wealthy donor wing and the welfarists of Clacton. He has never yet been where there is no-one else at all to blame. So I shall wait and see.
It’s not a foregone conclusion that the two main parties will fall apart at the next GE - indeed I think it’s still highly possible Ref/Green implode before then or see significant declines in popularity. But these are warning shots. Labour and the Tories need to listen and do better, not pay lip service.
Genuinely don’t know which way I will vote so been useful. Interesting that both went on crime rather than NHS, cost of living, immigration. Maybe because of my demographic?
The REASON Cameron called the EU Brexit vote was precisely because Farage terrified him into doing it, by winning those European elections in 2014. That was Farage's explicit strategy and ambition - win in Europe to force change in Britain (because it is much harder to break through in Britain due to FPTP, in Europe it is PR so new parties can come through). Farage succeeded handsomely. Without Farage, no Brexit
Am I talking to a bunch of ten year olds here?
I agree he is hugely consequential. Possibly the most consequential insurgent politician in modern British politics. But that is not the same as being the most capable politician. Farage has proved he can disrupt, campaign and terrify the Conservatives. He has not yet proved he can govern, run a disciplined party, or produce serious policy beyond his core obsessions.
“Mighty political talent” as an insurgent, yes. As a potential PM, TBD.
Anon
Obviously polemic can meet this question with abundant whataboutery - I can supply it myself - but the question matters about Farage just as much as it matters about the others.
A top qualification for PM is top level team building, use of that team, leading it from the front, and good retention rates of the team while succession planning all the time.
I have no evidence, intuition or feeling that Farage is good at this. I think the reverse is true. I think he may be as bad as the current one.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c07290dggr0o
The result was a Labour majority of well over 100 on a small share of the vote. That thinks that majority should be used to bring us back into the EU. What an achievement that is. He is a disrupter who falls out with everyone. He will do it again, very probably before the next GE.
Farage is certainly a far more accomplished insurgent/populist than Polanski. The latter really is pitiful and it's extraordinary that he's so prominent.
Campaigning genius... but he's never actually run anything. Always on the sidelines, heckling others to do his will.
Even ten year olds know that's the easy version of politics. Does Nigel really want to put himself in the stocks so that everyone can do to him what he's done to them for decades? Perhaps he does now.
Perhaps.
But he's an opportunist who never, until he got the £5m bung, thought of becoming PM. Good reasons for that.
And these days, anyone who wants can construct a bit of a platform for themselves.
He has yet to show he can be a successful GOVERNING politician or even that he can formulate either policies or a strategy for governing.
My firm expectation is that one way or another he won't ever be PM. I would be unhappy in this case to be wrong, but the pain would be substantially ameliorated by the sheer fascination of what will happen next. Dull it would not be.
You are on the nail. 'Any Questions' was well worth listening to today-not the simpering panel who were desperate to please-but those phoning in -mainly Jews-who were therefore unafraid to mention the very obvious elephant in the room.
Most said they had been on pro Palestinian marches and were proud to have done so. Why it never strikes anyone that for a people who have suffererd more than their share of slaughter in the not too distant past they would be more attuned to the genocide they are witnessing than most. Certainly in my reasonably wide circle I'd be hard put to identify many who are anything but sickened by Netanyahu and his monstrous henchmen
People claiming that Reform can't fairly easily make things better for the man in the street are just blinkered, because their so used to living in a country with all the inane stupidly that they have stopped seeing the wood because they a so focused on the trees.
PS: Have you tried Glenrothes , they do some lovely malts , light and no peat.
What is far more concerning for them is the revelation that their deputy leader has encouraged suspended candidates to take legal action against the party. That is proof positive that his faction is simply using the party as a convenient taxi to power - rather the Greens co-opting the muslim vote.
I think the best I can say is that you think from your viewpoint, in your particular situation, it is not currently a problem.
But pavements are pedestrian spaces, and they are for everyone.
If you lock him up for 10years a go rather than 2.5, it will probably reduce his court appearances by 2/3rds over the time, so there's probably a financial saving in the courts system too, even if the actual trial costs a few bob.
Brexit was down to Boris, not Farage. If Farage had been the lead on Brexit, it would not have happened.
He is way over-hyped.
It's certainly possible either or both of Reform or the Greens blow up on the lauchpad. I don't think I'd want to put down much money that's going to be the case, especially as the governing party seems focused entirely on blowing it's own feet off.
It's worth remembering that parties which are winning, and look like they might win tend to be united. The members, activists etc and see power in their grasp, and are willing to accept significant compromises in order to achieve it. It tends to be parties on the down that descend into factional infighting. Neither Green nor Reform are currently on a down - Reform may have drifted a little, but it is still leading the polls as it has done for over a year, and the Green's are presently hovering around their biggest vote share ever.
Vote Reform to get rid of Starmer was the message, with a bar chart illustration of Reform ahead of Labour, based on a Westminster opinion poll. I'm not sure how that translates to our ward.
I have reassured Wor Lass that even if we end up with three Reform councillors she won't be deported.
I’m sick to death of the right wing press to be honest. I suspect that Keir didn’t even know he had a niece and this wouldn’t have crossed his desk. Why is he getting the blame for selections that he has absolutely no involvement with whatsoever? 🤷🏼♂️
The Future's Bright. The Future's Green
Pavement parking is a problem is some locations. It is utterly essential in others. 95% of it isn't problematic. Calling it "anti-social behaviour" is ridiculous. Anti-social behaviour is dog poo and graffiti, not stuff that is required for people living normal lives.
As I say, I regularly shove a double buggy (known in our household as "the juggernaut" as it's massive and awkward, especially with the toddler loaded on board) round the place, so I've some idea about what I speak.
A blanket ban is a moronic over reaction to a minor problem. I'm fine with councils designating problem areas as "no pavement parking", but a blanket ban would just mean ~20% of people in my town have nowhere to park their car, despite currently inconveniencing no-one. Like it or not, cars are essential for everyday life, and we can't decided lots of people can't have them just to make a little more room on some pavements.
Time will tell.
And some of them want to join a party whose reaction to the discovery that one of their candidates wrote about "Jewish cockroaches" is to say that the candidate should not have published the comment. Not that he was wrong to think this or say it but to publish it and so embarrass the party.
Yuck!
Mind, the General Election will almost certainly be a different matter, should I live another three years.
Secondly, decriminalise the lot. it's a medical and social issue. Like alcohol, being a NEET, sugar in fizzy drinks, benefits junkieism and being an idiot.
I go back to the infamous mural which some people still sought to defend as not obviously anti-semitic, but which Corbyn himself realised he could not use that excuse if claiming to be one of the most committed anti-racist people out there, so instead claimed not to have looked at it properly before commenting on it.
Funny old game.
https://x.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/2050569974217908607
Brace.
I hope that will help resolve the "Police: Talk to the Council. Council: Talk to the Police" black hole that causes such problems at present.
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/cars/article-15778541/Pavement-parking-fines-incoming-England-councils-handed-enforcement-powers-new-law.html
Their only hope is Spurs are wretched - and Chelsea might have the delicious chance to send them down (Villa, Leeds, Chelsea, Everton is their tough run-in).
Eek.
Hard to see how this gets turned round in time to prevent the mid-terms being a blood-bath for the Republicans. 2027 will be a year of impeachments.
Probably the Democratic Party. Probably.
Here’s why: In a successful gerrymander, the voters of the losing party are crammed into a few districts; the voters of the winning party are spread out so as to give the party a majority of reasonably safe districts.
Majority/minority districts usually have high concentrations of Democrats. Political operatives have noticed this; I have seen examples where it looked to me as if unscrupulous Republicans had cooperated with minority Democrats to set up those majority/minority districts.
Here’s some data for those interested in the problem:
https://ballotpedia.org/Election_results,_2024:_Congressional_margin_of_victory_analysis
(If you are like me, you will be distressed by the lack of any party competition in 20 House districts, and the lack of serious competition in many more.)
For the record: I am in Washington’s 1st House district.
I would say Spurs need 5 or 6 points to be safe.
Edit: And as a West Ham fan obviously I hope Spurs don't make it.
How would four points see them safe?
Leeds will probably be safe by the time West Ham play them.
I don't see West Ham's run-in to be that much trickier than Spurs'.
https://www.birminghamdispatch.co.uk/exclusive-shabana-mahmoods-postal-ballot-was-investigated-in-a-2004-vote-rigging-scandal-in-birmingham/
Turns out Shabana Mahmood coincidentally had two entirely different signatures, which is slightly awkward in a vote-rigging investigation...
The LDs were second on seats won last year after Reform but Labour still beat the LDs on NEV, this year the seats up are less rural and small town and more big city and urban which will favour Labour more than last year
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_United_Kingdom_local_elections
And the length of the *additional* gap gets worse as the supply gap gets longer.
That is, the longer and deeper the loss of oil and gas gets, more and more facilities will be taken off line. Wells shut down. Then gasification and regas trains for LNG, refineries for oil.
These are massive installations, involving huge numbers in terms of temperature, pressure and volume. Once shut down completely, restarting is a slow and expensive process.
So on top of the gap caused by LNG and oil not being there, the restart will take longer and longer, the bigger the gap.
Though there is an upper limit, of course, when everything that can be taken off line, has been.