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Tears for Keir next Friday? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 13,174
edited April 29 in General
Tears for Keir next Friday? – politicalbetting.com

Angela Rayner is weighing up mounting a direct challenge to Sir Keir Starmer’s leadership after next week’s local elections, as supporters of the former deputy prime minister urge her to openly call for the prime minister to quit.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,420
    Streeting? Make your mind up - I thought it was Miliband was yer man!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,599
    I am so looking forward to my break which begins tomorrow.

    I'll be able to switch off from politics until Tuesday.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,599
    MarqueeMark said:

    Streeting? Make your mind up - I thought it was Miliband was yer man!

    I don't think he'll win but his odds could tumble if he tries and oust Sir Keir.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 43,524
    Saudi Arabia Pulls Funding From LIV Golf. Its Star Players Face a Painful Road Back.
    LIV plans to tell players and staff by Thursday that Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund would end its funding for the upstart league. But the PGA Tour isn’t yet ready to welcome back those who jumped ship.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,602
    Scott_xP said:

    Saudi Arabia Pulls Funding From LIV Golf. Its Star Players Face a Painful Road Back.
    LIV plans to tell players and staff by Thursday that Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund would end its funding for the upstart league. But the PGA Tour isn’t yet ready to welcome back those who jumped ship.

    Diddums.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,602
    edited April 29
    When will the commentators stop calling my man Woo Yizzer?
    It's so rude.
    The referees are at least trying.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,420
    Scott_xP said:

    Saudi Arabia Pulls Funding From LIV Golf. Its Star Players Face a Painful Road Back.
    LIV plans to tell players and staff by Thursday that Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund would end its funding for the upstart league. But the PGA Tour isn’t yet ready to welcome back those who jumped ship.

    I've completely lost track (and interest) on why this has failed...
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 25,472
    So rumours of telephone lines being installed?


    Sadly, I anticipate nothing will happen next Friday or Saturday.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,599
    SandyRentool said:

    So rumours of telephone lines being installed?


    Sadly, I anticipate nothing will happen next Friday or Saturday.

    It's not the 90s anymore, it's all done via (disappearing) WhatsApp messages.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,251
    'Not decided what to say yet' - she's obviously brimming with genuine solutions to a broken nation then.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,886
    I don't see how Wes Streeting can survive someone like Beth Rigby confronting him with his past tweets about throwing a columnist under a train.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,420
    SandyRentool said:

    So rumours of telephone lines being installed?


    Sadly, I anticipate nothing will happen next Friday or Saturday.

    I anticipate the results will be so bad for Labour, you'ld have to be mad to want to lead it.
  • scampi25scampi25 Posts: 581
    SandyRentool said:

    So rumours of telephone lines being installed?


    Sadly, I anticipate nothing will happen next Friday or Saturday.

    I presume that is meant figuratively. I mean 'telephone lines', seriously.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 91,961
    edited April 29
    Scott_xP said:

    Saudi Arabia Pulls Funding From LIV Golf. Its Star Players Face a Painful Road Back.
    LIV plans to tell players and staff by Thursday that Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund would end its funding for the upstart league. But the PGA Tour isn’t yet ready to welcome back those who jumped ship.

    Bryson was asking for $500m to re-sign, as he thought he held all the cards.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 25,472
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SandyRentool said:

    So rumours of telephone lines being installed?


    Sadly, I anticipate nothing will happen next Friday or Saturday.

    It's not the 90s anymore, it's all done via (disappearing) WhatsApp messages.
    You can rely on me to trot out the same line about phone lines every time there are rumours of a leadership challenge.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,251
    SandyRentool said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SandyRentool said:

    So rumours of telephone lines being installed?


    Sadly, I anticipate nothing will happen next Friday or Saturday.

    It's not the 90s anymore, it's all done via (disappearing) WhatsApp messages.
    You can rely on me to trot out the same line about phone lines every time there are rumours of a leadership challenge.
    The failure to install phone lines is arguably where the real rot set in.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 25,472
    williamglenn said:

    I don't see how Wes Streeting can survive someone like Beth Rigby confronting him with his past tweets about throwing a columnist under a train.

    "A train, Beth, that is now under public ownership, thanks to this Labour government.:
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,251
    Sir Weeble was dire at PMQs today. Called Ed Milliband 'The Energy'. Refused to give his backing to Reeves again, twice. Make it stop.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 91,961
    edited April 29
    Greens’ deputy leader urges legal action against own party

    The deputy leader of the Greens has encouraged legal action against his own party over dismissal of local election candidates accused of antisemitism.

    Mothin Ali said at a private meeting of the Greens for Palestine group that they needed to seek “serious legal advice” and put the “party on notice straight away” over the handling of candidate suspensions.

    https://www.thetimes.com/article/e0fc6751-e921-4c93-b558-101b5abe627c
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,251
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Greens’ deputy leader urges legal action against own party

    The deputy leader of the Greens has encouraged legal action against his own party over dismissal of local election candidates accused of antisemitism.

    Mothin Ali said at a private meeting of the Greens for Palestine group that they needed to seek “serious legal advice” and put the “party on notice straight away” over the handling of candidate suspensions.

    https://www.thetimes.com/article/e0fc6751-e921-4c93-b558-101b5abe627c

    Wow. Didn't expect it to fall apart this quickly.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 66,618
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SandyRentool said:

    So rumours of telephone lines being installed?


    Sadly, I anticipate nothing will happen next Friday or Saturday.

    It's not the 90s anymore, it's all done via (disappearing) WhatsApp messages.
    Still not secure.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,924
    edited April 29
    Hard not to see Rayner challenging Starmer from the left with a leadership bid if Labour are not only behind Reform but the Tories too, maybe even also the Greens as well on seats and votes after the local elections next week and if as is likely Labour also lose control of the Senedd in Wales.

    Streeting would then launch a leadership bid from the right. Streeting also polls better with voters on a net basis than Rayner in comparison to Starmer, 12% say he would be a better PM than Starmer, 22% worse. 15% say Rayner would be a better PM than Starmer, 38% worse. Green voters by 28% to 21% though say Rayner would be a better PM than Sir Keir. Burnham polls best, 34% of voters say he would be a better PM than Starmer only 13% worse but until he is elected again as an MP he cannot stand for Labour leader and PM

    https://yougov.com/en-gb/articles/54621-would-anyone-do-a-better-job-than-keir-starmer
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,814
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Greens’ deputy leader urges legal action against own party

    The deputy leader of the Greens has encouraged legal action against his own party over dismissal of local election candidates accused of antisemitism.

    Mothin Ali said at a private meeting of the Greens for Palestine group that they needed to seek “serious legal advice” and put the “party on notice straight away” over the handling of candidate suspensions.

    https://www.thetimes.com/article/e0fc6751-e921-4c93-b558-101b5abe627c

    Wow. Didn't expect it to fall apart this quickly.
    There's such buzz about the party at the moment I think they can push past this sort of thing for now, but the seeds are there.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,924
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Greens’ deputy leader urges legal action against own party

    The deputy leader of the Greens has encouraged legal action against his own party over dismissal of local election candidates accused of antisemitism.

    Mothin Ali said at a private meeting of the Greens for Palestine group that they needed to seek “serious legal advice” and put the “party on notice straight away” over the handling of candidate suspensions.

    https://www.thetimes.com/article/e0fc6751-e921-4c93-b558-101b5abe627c

    Wow. Didn't expect it to fall apart this quickly.
    Looks like the Green Muslim pact that won them Gorton was always going to fall apart once the ideological differences emerged
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,924
    edited April 29
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Streeting? Make your mind up - I thought it was Miliband was yer man!

    I don't think he'll win but his odds could tumble if he tries and oust Sir Keir.
    Streeting reminds me of a British Macron, very intelligent, some charisma and with a huge ego if a bit slimy. Whereas Starmer is now clearly the British Hollande, the dull safe pair of hands who was supposed to be a competent change after voters fed up with the governing centre right party but who soon became one of the most unpopular leaders of their nation ever and did not run again
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 64,516
    The Musk-Altman trial looks like fun.

    Musk has accused the other side's lawyers of trying to trick him by using his previous tweets against him.

    What was it David Cameron said...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,814
    rcs1000 said:

    The Musk-Altman trial looks like fun.

    Musk has accused the other side's lawyers of trying to trick him by using his previous tweets against him.

    What was it David Cameron said...

    Hmm, Musk vs Altman, two unlikeable weirdos who spread annoying messianic messages about their companies to get attention and cash.

    But at least with Musk you can buy a car or launch a satellite I suppose.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,814
    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Streeting? Make your mind up - I thought it was Miliband was yer man!

    I don't think he'll win but his odds could tumble if he tries and oust Sir Keir.
    Streeting reminds me of a British Macron, very intelligent, some charisma and with a huge ego if a bit slimy. Whereas Starmer is now clearly the British Hollande, the dull safe pair of hands who was supposed to be a competent change after voters fed up with the governing centre right party but who soon became one of the most unpopular leaders of their nation ever and did not run again
    He used to give me student politician vibes, but he has had some better moments. But from the outside he doesn't seem like something the Labour base is after right now, and if that is the case how would going for him help?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 43,524
    rcs1000 said:

    The Musk-Altman trial looks like fun.

    Musk has accused the other side's lawyers of trying to trick him by using his previous tweets against him.

    What was it David Cameron said...

    https://bsky.app/profile/jamisonfoser.bsky.social/post/3mknpzgoqjk2q
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,195
    kle4 said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Greens’ deputy leader urges legal action against own party

    The deputy leader of the Greens has encouraged legal action against his own party over dismissal of local election candidates accused of antisemitism.

    Mothin Ali said at a private meeting of the Greens for Palestine group that they needed to seek “serious legal advice” and put the “party on notice straight away” over the handling of candidate suspensions.

    https://www.thetimes.com/article/e0fc6751-e921-4c93-b558-101b5abe627c

    Wow. Didn't expect it to fall apart this quickly.
    There's such buzz about the party at the moment I think they can push past this sort of thing for now, but the seeds are there.
    I think you’re right. It is something, like Zack Polanski’s poorTV round on Monday, that won’t hurt them yet.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,137
    Rayner cannot be PM. Urgh
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,924
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Streeting? Make your mind up - I thought it was Miliband was yer man!

    I don't think he'll win but his odds could tumble if he tries and oust Sir Keir.
    Streeting reminds me of a British Macron, very intelligent, some charisma and with a huge ego if a bit slimy. Whereas Starmer is now clearly the British Hollande, the dull safe pair of hands who was supposed to be a competent change after voters fed up with the governing centre right party but who soon became one of the most unpopular leaders of their nation ever and did not run again
    He used to give me student politician vibes, but he has had some better moments. But from the outside he doesn't seem like something the Labour base is after right now, and if that is the case how would going for him help?
    I suspect Labour members would vote for Rayner over Streeting yes, so Streeting would have to try and ensure Rayner cannot get the 80 Labour MP nominations to get on any leadership ballot
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,886
    An interesting test case

    https://www.theguardian.com/law/2026/apr/29/sophie-corcoran-gb-news-sue-charity-not-offering-internships-white-people-legal-action

    GB News commentator to sue charity for not offering internships to white people
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,924
    ' NEW: Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham has refused to support Keir Starmer staying on as Prime Minister beyond next weeks UK local elections

    Burnham also didn’t rule out attempting to run to be a Member of Parliament for the second time this year'

    https://x.com/PolitlcsGlobal/status/2049525964699238653?s=20
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 22,100
    HYUFD said:

    Hard not to see Rayner challenging Starmer from the left with a leadership bid if Labour are not only behind Reform but the Tories too, maybe even also the Greens as well on seats and votes after the local elections next week and if as is likely Labour also lose control of the Senedd in Wales.

    Streeting would then launch a leadership bid from the right. Streeting also polls better with voters on a net basis than Rayner in comparison to Starmer, 12% say he would be a better PM than Starmer, 22% worse. 15% say Rayner would be a better PM than Starmer, 38% worse. Green voters by 28% to 21% though say Rayner would be a better PM than Sir Keir. Burnham polls best, 34% of voters say he would be a better PM than Starmer only 13% worse but until he is elected again as an MP he cannot stand for Labour leader and PM

    https://yougov.com/en-gb/articles/54621-would-anyone-do-a-better-job-than-keir-starmer

    Pretty terrible figures for Rayner and Streeting. Rushing into embracing either of them post local elections looks a bad idea.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,924
    'We know Labour's coalition is splitting in lots of directions.
    How does that differ between men and women? Labour's retention is higher among men, though more 2024 Labour women say don't know. Labour are losing slightly more men to Reform & slightly more women to the Greens..Labour now have the biggest gender gap of any party and are close to 60-40 men to women among their supporters. The Greens have the highest proportion of women in their voter base followed by the Tories.'

    https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/2049480314628522371?s=20

    https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/2049485987487658362?s=20
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,924
    MRP projects Corbyn losing to Greens

    🟢 Greens: 32% (+27)
    🟥 Your Party: 28% (-21)

    Via
    @ElectCalculus
    /
    @FindOutNowUK
    , 7 April
    ---
    (+/- vs GE2024)

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/2048673502581129713?s=20
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,814
    NickPalmer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hard not to see Rayner challenging Starmer from the left with a leadership bid if Labour are not only behind Reform but the Tories too, maybe even also the Greens as well on seats and votes after the local elections next week and if as is likely Labour also lose control of the Senedd in Wales.

    Streeting would then launch a leadership bid from the right. Streeting also polls better with voters on a net basis than Rayner in comparison to Starmer, 12% say he would be a better PM than Starmer, 22% worse. 15% say Rayner would be a better PM than Starmer, 38% worse. Green voters by 28% to 21% though say Rayner would be a better PM than Sir Keir. Burnham polls best, 34% of voters say he would be a better PM than Starmer only 13% worse but until he is elected again as an MP he cannot stand for Labour leader and PM

    https://yougov.com/en-gb/articles/54621-would-anyone-do-a-better-job-than-keir-starmer

    Pretty terrible figures for Rayner and Streeting. Rushing into embracing either of them post local elections looks a bad idea.
    They need to move fast to take out the PM before Burnham can be a viable option.

    It may not be a good idea, but if they want to be PM it may be their only chance, much as Sunak wouldn't have had another shot had he not gone for it despite the chances of losing big later.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 17,434
    The Met release of the body cam is quite something. The BBC have it. Love the way the cop managed to remember to give the caution.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 4,849
    Socialising with backbenchers? SCANDAL!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,388
    HYUFD said:

    MRP projects Corbyn losing to Greens

    🟢 Greens: 32% (+27)
    🟥 Your Party: 28% (-21)

    Via
    @ElectCalculus
    /
    @FindOutNowUK
    , 7 April
    ---
    (+/- vs GE2024)

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/2048673502581129713?s=20


    That is just hilarious.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,814
    rottenborough said:

    HYUFD said:

    MRP projects Corbyn losing to Greens

    🟢 Greens: 32% (+27)
    🟥 Your Party: 28% (-21)

    Via
    @ElectCalculus
    /
    @FindOutNowUK
    , 7 April
    ---
    (+/- vs GE2024)

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/2048673502581129713?s=20


    That is just hilarious.
    Corbyn left it to the last possible moment to leave Labour, pulled off a local win, but still had to be dragged into announcing a new party. I don't think his heart was ever really in it as such a formal entity, as opposed to a general movement, and the Zackgasm surge put paid to any ambitions in that direction - the time has passed.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 20,986
    williamglenn said:

    I don't see how Wes Streeting can survive someone like Beth Rigby confronting him with his past tweets about throwing a columnist under a train.

    Let me tell you a story about a politician called Boris Johnson….
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 20,986
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Greens’ deputy leader urges legal action against own party

    The deputy leader of the Greens has encouraged legal action against his own party over dismissal of local election candidates accused of antisemitism.

    Mothin Ali said at a private meeting of the Greens for Palestine group that they needed to seek “serious legal advice” and put the “party on notice straight away” over the handling of candidate suspensions.

    https://www.thetimes.com/article/e0fc6751-e921-4c93-b558-101b5abe627c

    There’s becoming something of a tradition of Green Deputy Leaders taking legal action against the party. Look up Shahrar Ali, deputy leader 2014-6. Sued the party under the Equality Act and won £9k in damages and £90k in costs.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 64,516
    Scott_xP said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The Musk-Altman trial looks like fun.

    Musk has accused the other side's lawyers of trying to trick him by using his previous tweets against him.

    What was it David Cameron said...

    https://bsky.app/profile/jamisonfoser.bsky.social/post/3mknpzgoqjk2q
    Can't they both lose?

    (FWIW, I think I like Altman even less than Musk. But I don't think Musk winning this case would be a good thing for competition in AI land. It's also not clear that "yes, I said you could commercialize it... but not like this!" is a particularly good argument from Musk.)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 91,961
    The Met Police say the Golders Green terror suspect is a British national born in Somalia
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 14,287
    algarkirk said:

    The Met release of the body cam is quite something. The BBC have it. Love the way the cop managed to remember to give the caution.

    We have to be grateful the attacker had such poor cardio. A marauding terror attack doesn’t really work if you can only stumble along.

    (Unless someone had managed to injure him along the way?)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 64,516
    NickPalmer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hard not to see Rayner challenging Starmer from the left with a leadership bid if Labour are not only behind Reform but the Tories too, maybe even also the Greens as well on seats and votes after the local elections next week and if as is likely Labour also lose control of the Senedd in Wales.

    Streeting would then launch a leadership bid from the right. Streeting also polls better with voters on a net basis than Rayner in comparison to Starmer, 12% say he would be a better PM than Starmer, 22% worse. 15% say Rayner would be a better PM than Starmer, 38% worse. Green voters by 28% to 21% though say Rayner would be a better PM than Sir Keir. Burnham polls best, 34% of voters say he would be a better PM than Starmer only 13% worse but until he is elected again as an MP he cannot stand for Labour leader and PM

    https://yougov.com/en-gb/articles/54621-would-anyone-do-a-better-job-than-keir-starmer

    Pretty terrible figures for Rayner and Streeting. Rushing into embracing either of them post local elections looks a bad idea.
    Couldn't agree more. Britain would definitely benefit from Starmer remaining in post.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 25,472
    If it is Streeting v Rayner, then I'm not sure who I would vote for.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 64,516
    SandyRentool said:

    If it is Streeting v Rayner, then I'm not sure who I would vote for.

    If it was Streeting or Rayner and I only had one bullet... Well, I'd probably just shoot myself.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 19,661
    edited April 29
    williamglenn said:

    An interesting test case

    https://www.theguardian.com/law/2026/apr/29/sophie-corcoran-gb-news-sue-charity-not-offering-internships-white-people-legal-action

    GB News commentator to sue charity for not offering internships to white people

    I don't want to be wicked-witchist but she does look extremely sinister. I would be consulting my safeguarding policies closely if I were interviewing her for a role at my charity
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 14,287
    edited April 29
    NickPalmer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hard not to see Rayner challenging Starmer from the left with a leadership bid if Labour are not only behind Reform but the Tories too, maybe even also the Greens as well on seats and votes after the local elections next week and if as is likely Labour also lose control of the Senedd in Wales.

    Streeting would then launch a leadership bid from the right. Streeting also polls better with voters on a net basis than Rayner in comparison to Starmer, 12% say he would be a better PM than Starmer, 22% worse. 15% say Rayner would be a better PM than Starmer, 38% worse. Green voters by 28% to 21% though say Rayner would be a better PM than Sir Keir. Burnham polls best, 34% of voters say he would be a better PM than Starmer only 13% worse but until he is elected again as an MP he cannot stand for Labour leader and PM

    https://yougov.com/en-gb/articles/54621-would-anyone-do-a-better-job-than-keir-starmer

    Pretty terrible figures for Rayner and Streeting. Rushing into embracing either of them post local elections looks a bad idea.
    …but why? I don’t really get it, particularly relative to Starmer. Streeting comes across ok.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,789
    rcs1000 said:

    SandyRentool said:

    If it is Streeting v Rayner, then I'm not sure who I would vote for.

    If it was Streeting or Rayner and I only had one bullet... Well, I'd probably just shoot myself.
    Is Streeting really so terrible?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 20,986
    williamglenn said:

    An interesting test case

    https://www.theguardian.com/law/2026/apr/29/sophie-corcoran-gb-news-sue-charity-not-offering-internships-white-people-legal-action

    GB News commentator to sue charity for not offering internships to white people

    It looks like a stunt application, so could the case be chucked out on the grounds that it wasn’t a serious application?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 43,524
    @paleofuture.bsky.social‬

    Looks like Trump saw the German chancellor’s comment that the U.S. was being "humiliated" by Iran…

    https://bsky.app/profile/paleofuture.bsky.social/post/3mko3hnzdas2e
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,247
    bondegezou said:

    williamglenn said:

    An interesting test case

    https://www.theguardian.com/law/2026/apr/29/sophie-corcoran-gb-news-sue-charity-not-offering-internships-white-people-legal-action

    GB News commentator to sue charity for not offering internships to white people

    It looks like a stunt application, so could the case be chucked out on the grounds that it wasn’t a serious application?
    Rosa Parks was a stunt. Stunts are good.

    (No, I don't think an internship is as important as historical USA segregation.)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,886
    https://x.com/itvpeston/status/2049598575605088426

    “If she thought it would help the cause, I would”

    Former Chancellor @Jeremy_Hunt says he would be open to taking up a role in Kemi Badenoch’s Shadow Cabinet and thinks she is doing ‘a very good job’
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 26,274
    Posted on previous thread

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5529658#Comment_5529658

    and

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5529660#Comment_5529660
  • RogerRoger Posts: 23,142
    A nice 40' to cheer everyone up...........

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xd8i3PthfEM
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 91,961
    “Anything north of 1500 seats lost would trigger a collective nervous breakdown”

    Exclusive data from Lord Hayward suggests Labour may lose 1850 English councils in the upcoming local elections, the worst midterm results by any modern government

    https://x.com/itvpeston/status/2049598754743783708?s=20
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 26,274
    rcs1000 said:

    SandyRentool said:

    If it is Streeting v Rayner, then I'm not sure who I would vote for.

    If it was Streeting or Rayner and I only had one bullet... Well, I'd probably just shoot myself.
    I've just been given huge quantities of co-codamol to deal with pain. The leaflet tells me that an overdose can kill me.

    I don't see Starmer easily giving up. A PM who whips his MPs to prevent a referral to the Privileges Committee does not look like someone who is going to leave because of poor local elections results.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,602
    It's becoming baked in.
    To the extent that if they lose 1400 does everyone just shrug?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 91,961
    edited April 29
    Election expert Lord Hayward's predictions for next week's local elections...

    🔴 - 1,850 seats for Labour
    🔵 - 600 seats for Tories
    🟣 + 1,550 seats for Reform
    🟢 + 500 seats for Greens
    🟡 + 150 seats for Lib Dem Dems
    ⚪️ + 250 seats for independents

    https://x.com/ashcowburn/status/2049602121990013263?s=20
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 5,220
    Test
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,814
    edited April 29
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Lord Hayward, pollster and Tory peer, has done his forecasts for next week’s council elections:

    🩵Reform - gain 1550
    🔶Lib Dems - gain 150
    🌴Tories - lose 600
    🌹Labour - lose 1850

    https://x.com/JAHeale/status/2049606495126298828?s=20

    Green?

    Tories would take that, bad as it is. It would be a great result for Reform even with high expectations.

    Edit: 500 for Green is obviously good, but probably less than they are hoping for.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,247
    Cyclefree said:

    rcs1000 said:

    SandyRentool said:

    If it is Streeting v Rayner, then I'm not sure who I would vote for.

    If it was Streeting or Rayner and I only had one bullet... Well, I'd probably just shoot myself.
    I've just been given huge quantities of co-codamol to deal with pain. The leaflet tells me that an overdose can kill me.

    I don't see Starmer easily giving up. A PM who whips his MPs to prevent a referral to the Privileges Committee does not look like someone who is going to leave because of poor local elections results.
    I once took co-codamol for three months. Luckily not for a disease as dangerous as yours. I'm sure they've told you this, but please take the recommended laxatives. I won't tell you how I know...
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 20,986
    Cyclefree said:

    rcs1000 said:

    SandyRentool said:

    If it is Streeting v Rayner, then I'm not sure who I would vote for.

    If it was Streeting or Rayner and I only had one bullet... Well, I'd probably just shoot myself.
    I've just been given huge quantities of co-codamol to deal with pain. The leaflet tells me that an overdose can kill me.

    I don't see Starmer easily giving up. A PM who whips his MPs to prevent a referral to the Privileges Committee does not look like someone who is going to leave because of poor local elections results.
    Remember to eat lots of fibre. Codeine can be very constipating.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 20,986
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Election expert Lord Hayward's predictions for next week's local elections...

    🔴 - 1,850 seats for Labour
    🔵 - 600 seats for Tories
    🟣 + 1,550 seats for Reform
    🟢 + 500 seats for Greens
    🟡 + 150 seats for Lib Dem Dems
    ⚪️ + 250 seats for independents

    https://x.com/ashcowburn/status/2049602121990013263?s=20

    A question is how many of those independents are Tories standing as independents, and how many are Your Party-backed leftist independents.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,602
    williamglenn said:

    An interesting test case

    https://www.theguardian.com/law/2026/apr/29/sophie-corcoran-gb-news-sue-charity-not-offering-internships-white-people-legal-action

    GB News commentator to sue charity for not offering internships to white people

    They should find in her favour.
    On condition that she completes the £14.80 an hour placement rather than grifting on GB News and generally "influencing" people.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,814
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Jews, like all British citizens, should not have to hide their (my) identity to feel safe. This is a crisis.

    https://x.com/Peston/status/2049564448290181351?s=20

    Jewish News front page contained in that tweet. Not very happy to say the least.

    Nor should they be.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 91,961
    edited April 29
    I notice some media outlets blurring the face of stabby mcstabby where as others are showing him. When did it even become a thing to be blurring the preps face in the UK. When Lee Rigby was stabbed we had loads of footage of those that carried out the attack shown across all the media.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,325
    Streeting is a good communicator but his seat majority is only around 500 votes .

    Very risky to have a PM in danger of losing his seat at the next GE .

    Rayner has a backstory that could make her easier to connect with people but the tax issue will be a problem .

    One PM going because of very poor judgement replaced with another who could be accused of the same . I like Rayner and wouldn’t have a problem with her being PM but she’s very much a marmite character .
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 64,516
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Election expert Lord Hayward's predictions for next week's local elections...

    🔴 - 1,850 seats for Labour
    🔵 - 600 seats for Tories
    🟣 + 1,550 seats for Reform
    🟢 + 500 seats for Greens
    🟡 + 150 seats for Lib Dem Dems
    ⚪️ + 250 seats for independents

    https://x.com/ashcowburn/status/2049602121990013263?s=20

    I think the Reform number is about right, but I think this is probably too optimstic for the Tories and the Independents, and not optimistic enough for the Greens, and probably the LDs too.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 8,261
    Cyclefree said:

    rcs1000 said:

    SandyRentool said:

    If it is Streeting v Rayner, then I'm not sure who I would vote for.

    If it was Streeting or Rayner and I only had one bullet... Well, I'd probably just shoot myself.
    I've just been given huge quantities of co-codamol to deal with pain. The leaflet tells me that an overdose can kill me.

    I don't see Starmer easily giving up. A PM who whips his MPs to prevent a referral to the Privileges Committee does not look like someone who is going to leave because of poor local elections results.
    There was a time when the NHS would give you proper analgesia.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,924
    kle4 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Lord Hayward, pollster and Tory peer, has done his forecasts for next week’s council elections:

    🩵Reform - gain 1550
    🔶Lib Dems - gain 150
    🌴Tories - lose 600
    🌹Labour - lose 1850

    https://x.com/JAHeale/status/2049606495126298828?s=20

    Green?

    Tories would take that, bad as it is. It would be a great result for Reform even with high expectations.

    Edit: 500 for Green is obviously good, but probably less than they are hoping for.
    Would give Reform most seats with 1628 won by Farage's party next week, the LDs second on 813, the Greens third on 670, the Tories 4th on 534, Labour a disastrous 5th on just 346

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections
  • RogerRoger Posts: 23,142
    I love their turn of phrase and they say what they mean........

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rzs3DTKEqXo
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 5,220
    nico67 said:

    Streeting is a good communicator but his seat majority is only around 500 votes .

    Very risky to have a PM in danger of losing his seat at the next GE .

    Rayner has a backstory that could make her easier to connect with people but the tax issue will be a problem .

    One PM going because of very poor judgement replaced with another who could be accused of the same . I like Rayner and wouldn’t have a problem with her being PM but she’s very much a marmite character .

    Being a Marmite character isn't such a problem in a five party system, where to win you need to consolidate support that has fractured across two or three parties rather than appeal to current supporters of all five.

    That is, the people who really don't like Marmite are in the main the same ones who wouldn't have voted for your party in a month of Sundays, even if it were led by a reincarnation of Winston Churchill. Ignore them. What matters is what your base and defectors from that base think of you. And it turns out that quite a lot of the latter are partial to a bit of Marmite, at least compared to what they're eating now.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,924
    edited April 29
    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    nico67 said:

    Streeting is a good communicator but his seat majority is only around 500 votes .

    Very risky to have a PM in danger of losing his seat at the next GE .

    Rayner has a backstory that could make her easier to connect with people but the tax issue will be a problem .

    One PM going because of very poor judgement replaced with another who could be accused of the same . I like Rayner and wouldn’t have a problem with her being PM but she’s very much a marmite character .

    Being a Marmite character isn't such a problem in a five party system, where to win you need to consolidate support that has fractured across two or three parties rather than appeal to current supporters of all five.

    That is, the people who really don't like Marmite are in the main the same ones who wouldn't have voted for your party in a month of Sundays, even if it were led by a reincarnation of Winston Churchill. Ignore them. What matters is what your base and defectors from that base think of you. And it turns out that quite a lot of the latter are partial to a bit of Marmite, at least compared to what they're eating now.
    Farage v Rayner (or Farage v Polanski), Farage definitely wins, Farage v Streeting (or Farage v Badenoch or Farage v Davey), could go either way, Farage v Burnham, Burnham definitely wins.

    Farage v Starmer, Farage also now definitely wins but I doubt SKS will even survive the summer now
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 6,058
    JohnLilburne said:

    Cyclefree said:

    rcs1000 said:

    SandyRentool said:

    If it is Streeting v Rayner, then I'm not sure who I would vote for.

    If it was Streeting or Rayner and I only had one bullet... Well, I'd probably just shoot myself.
    I've just been given huge quantities of co-codamol to deal with pain. The leaflet tells me that an overdose can kill me.

    I don't see Starmer easily giving up. A PM who whips his MPs to prevent a referral to the Privileges Committee does not look like someone who is going to leave because of poor local elections results.
    There was a time when the NHS would give you proper analgesia.
    Brings to mind this old William Burroughs thing:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u6kHN92Yv48

    "Fantastic narration by Burroughs about Danny, a poor unfortunate junkie who reveals his last remains of selflessness and humanity despite his urgent physical predicament.

    The Junky's Christmas is a story by William S. Burroughs. It appears in the 1989 collection Interzone and on the 1993 album Spare Ass Annie and Other Tales. It was also made into a 1993 short claymation film directed by Nick Donkin and Melodie McDaniel. The film was produced by Francis Ford Coppola and was released by Koch Vision on DVD in North America on Nov. 21, 2006. Burroughs narrates the film and appears in live-action footage at the beginning and end of the film."
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 5,220
    HYUFD said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    nico67 said:

    Streeting is a good communicator but his seat majority is only around 500 votes .

    Very risky to have a PM in danger of losing his seat at the next GE .

    Rayner has a backstory that could make her easier to connect with people but the tax issue will be a problem .

    One PM going because of very poor judgement replaced with another who could be accused of the same . I like Rayner and wouldn’t have a problem with her being PM but she’s very much a marmite character .

    Being a Marmite character isn't such a problem in a five party system, where to win you need to consolidate support that has fractured across two or three parties rather than appeal to current supporters of all five.

    That is, the people who really don't like Marmite are in the main the same ones who wouldn't have voted for your party in a month of Sundays, even if it were led by a reincarnation of Winston Churchill. Ignore them. What matters is what your base and defectors from that base think of you. And it turns out that quite a lot of the latter are partial to a bit of Marmite, at least compared to what they're eating now.
    Farage v Rayner (or Farage v Polanski), Farage definitely wins, Farage v Streeting (or Farage v Badenoch or Farage v Davey), could go either way, Farage v Burnham, Burnham definitely wins.

    Farage v Starmer, Farage also now definitely wins but I doubt SKS will even survive the summer now
    One party from the left on 25%-30% v all the others probably wins the most seats, should all the others be fairly evenly split.

    Obviously if Reform dominates on the right on 30% and the Conservatives wither down to 15%, the scenario is different. Are you expecting that to happen?
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,954
    edited April 29
    nico67 said:

    Streeting is a good communicator but his seat majority is only around 500 votes .

    Very risky to have a PM in danger of losing his seat at the next GE .

    Rayner has a backstory that could make her easier to connect with people but the tax issue will be a problem .

    One PM going because of very poor judgement replaced with another who could be accused of the same . I like Rayner and wouldn’t have a problem with her being PM but she’s very much a marmite character .

    Unless they do something to turn their polling numbers around, it's going to be virtually impossible for them to pick an MP whose seat isn't in danger of being lost. Gorton and Denton was one of their top 10% safest seats, and they lost that by a substantial margin.

    It's one of the reasons why I think Andy Burnham won't become PM; even if the NEC is willing, there simply are hardly any seats where he is guaranteed to win, especially because everyone from the other parties will be really out to get him. I'd actually vote Green in a byelection for the privilege of making him look a fool, and I'm someone who normally would probably take Labour over the Greens in a forced choice.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,924
    edited April 29
    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    HYUFD said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    nico67 said:

    Streeting is a good communicator but his seat majority is only around 500 votes .

    Very risky to have a PM in danger of losing his seat at the next GE .

    Rayner has a backstory that could make her easier to connect with people but the tax issue will be a problem .

    One PM going because of very poor judgement replaced with another who could be accused of the same . I like Rayner and wouldn’t have a problem with her being PM but she’s very much a marmite character .

    Being a Marmite character isn't such a problem in a five party system, where to win you need to consolidate support that has fractured across two or three parties rather than appeal to current supporters of all five.

    That is, the people who really don't like Marmite are in the main the same ones who wouldn't have voted for your party in a month of Sundays, even if it were led by a reincarnation of Winston Churchill. Ignore them. What matters is what your base and defectors from that base think of you. And it turns out that quite a lot of the latter are partial to a bit of Marmite, at least compared to what they're eating now.
    Farage v Rayner (or Farage v Polanski), Farage definitely wins, Farage v Streeting (or Farage v Badenoch or Farage v Davey), could go either way, Farage v Burnham, Burnham definitely wins.

    Farage v Starmer, Farage also now definitely wins but I doubt SKS will even survive the summer now
    One party from the left on 25%-30% v all the others probably wins the most seats, should all the others be fairly evenly split.

    Obviously if Reform dominates on the right on 30% and the Conservatives wither down to 15%, the scenario is different. Are you expecting that to happen?
    The Greens would likely still get about 10-15% even against Rayner so I would expect a Labour Party from the left to get no more than 25% now, Reform 25 to 30% and the Conservatives maybe 20 to 25% and the LDs 15 to 20% against a Rayner led Labour too
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,924
    edited April 29
    theProle said:

    nico67 said:

    Streeting is a good communicator but his seat majority is only around 500 votes .

    Very risky to have a PM in danger of losing his seat at the next GE .

    Rayner has a backstory that could make her easier to connect with people but the tax issue will be a problem .

    One PM going because of very poor judgement replaced with another who could be accused of the same . I like Rayner and wouldn’t have a problem with her being PM but she’s very much a marmite character .

    Unless they do something to turn their polling numbers around, it's going to be virtually impossible for them to pick an MP whose seat isn't in danger of being lost. Gorton and Denton was one of their top 10% safest seats, and they lost that by a substantial margin.

    It's one of the reasons why I think Andy Burnham won't become PM; even if the NEC is willing, there simply are hardly any seats where he is guaranteed to win, especially because everyone from the other parties will be really out to get him. I'd actually vote Green in a byelection for the privilege of making him look a fool, and I'm someone who normally would probably take Labour over the Greens in a forced choice.
    Given Burnham polls better than any politician in the land at present, Farage and Polanski included, he would almost certainly win a by election in any traditional Labour seat. The NEC is blocking him, not the voters
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,602
    theProle said:

    nico67 said:

    Streeting is a good communicator but his seat majority is only around 500 votes .

    Very risky to have a PM in danger of losing his seat at the next GE .

    Rayner has a backstory that could make her easier to connect with people but the tax issue will be a problem .

    One PM going because of very poor judgement replaced with another who could be accused of the same . I like Rayner and wouldn’t have a problem with her being PM but she’s very much a marmite character .

    Unless they do something to turn their polling numbers around, it's going to be virtually impossible for them to pick an MP whose seat isn't in danger of being lost. Gorton and Denton was one of their top 10% safest seats, and they lost that by a substantial margin.

    It's one of the reasons why I think Andy Burnham won't become PM; even if the NEC is willing, there simply are hardly any seats where he is guaranteed to win, especially because everyone from the other parties will be really out to get him. I'd actually vote Green in a byelection for the privilege of making him look a fool, and I'm someone who normally would probably take Labour over the Greens in a forced choice.
    But one of the major drivers of the Green vote in G+D was annoyance that Burnham wasn't allowed to stand.
    That was picked up in all the voxpops.
  • PoodleInASlipstreamPoodleInASlipstream Posts: 817
    JohnLilburne said:

    Cyclefree said:

    rcs1000 said:

    SandyRentool said:

    If it is Streeting v Rayner, then I'm not sure who I would vote for.

    If it was Streeting or Rayner and I only had one bullet... Well, I'd probably just shoot myself.
    I've just been given huge quantities of co-codamol to deal with pain. The leaflet tells me that an overdose can kill me.

    I don't see Starmer easily giving up. A PM who whips his MPs to prevent a referral to the Privileges Committee does not look like someone who is going to leave because of poor local elections results.
    There was a time when the NHS would give you proper analgesia.
    Co-codamol is a horrible medication. Lots of people in severe pain will push the dosage limits sometimes, but with co-codamol by time you see any symptoms from too much codeine the paracetamol has silently destroyed your liver.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 91,961
    edited April 30
    Stephen Fisher, Professor of Political Sociology at Oxford University, predicts Labour will suffer the Party’s worst election result ever on 7 May - losing at least 1,900 seats, 74% of its Councillors that face re-election

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2026/apr/23/mapped-local-elections-labour-may-unprecedented-losses
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,366
    PoodleInASlipstream said:

    JohnLilburne said:

    Cyclefree said:

    rcs1000 said:

    SandyRentool said:

    If it is Streeting v Rayner, then I'm not sure who I would vote for.

    If it was Streeting or Rayner and I only had one bullet... Well, I'd probably just shoot myself.
    I've just been given huge quantities of co-codamol to deal with pain. The leaflet tells me that an overdose can kill me.

    I don't see Starmer easily giving up. A PM who whips his MPs to prevent a referral to the Privileges Committee does not look like someone who is going to leave because of poor local elections results.
    There was a time when the NHS would give you proper analgesia.
    Co-codamol is a horrible medication. Lots of people in severe pain will push the dosage limits sometimes, but with co-codamol by time you see any symptoms from too much codeine the paracetamol has silently destroyed your liver.
    In my very limited experience, co-codamol is also completely useless as a painkiller but obviously it must work for most.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,366
    edited April 30
    The Golders Green stabbings:-

    The 45-year-old suspect – who has a history of 'serious violence and mental health issues'
    https://www.dailymail.com/news/article-15777411/Keir-Starmer-Jew-harmer-PM-condemnation-Israel-antisemitism-UK.html

    Shades of Valdo Calocane who killed the two students and caretaker in Nottingham, amongst others.

    The Mail understands the suspect, a British national born in Somalia, was also known to the Government's Prevent deradicalisation programme.
    https://www.dailymail.com/news/article-15777411/Keir-Starmer-Jew-harmer-PM-condemnation-Israel-antisemitism-UK.html

    Already known to the authorities – like the Manchester bomber among others.

    It may be a mistake to treat this attack, or these attacks, as bog-standard antisemitism and ignore chronic system failures.


  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,366
    Men worried about having a small penis need to know they CAN grow it
    https://www.dailymail.com/health/article-15756501/urologist-men-small-penis-growth-treatment.html

    I'll report back if it works. Oh, hold on...
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,366
    Where does PB stand on the arsonists now that the trial is up and running (after two days discussing case management – is that normal?) and reported in the mainstream media?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,689
    PoodleInASlipstream said:

    JohnLilburne said:

    Cyclefree said:

    rcs1000 said:

    SandyRentool said:

    If it is Streeting v Rayner, then I'm not sure who I would vote for.

    If it was Streeting or Rayner and I only had one bullet... Well, I'd probably just shoot myself.
    I've just been given huge quantities of co-codamol to deal with pain. The leaflet tells me that an overdose can kill me.

    I don't see Starmer easily giving up. A PM who whips his MPs to prevent a referral to the Privileges Committee does not look like someone who is going to leave because of poor local elections results.
    There was a time when the NHS would give you proper analgesia.
    Co-codamol is a horrible medication. Lots of people in severe pain will push the dosage limits sometimes, but with co-codamol by time you see any symptoms from too much codeine the paracetamol has silently destroyed your liver.
    If you’re going to screw up your liver anyway, aren’t you better off doing it with some vintage single malts?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,689
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Where does PB stand on the arsonists now that the trial is up and running (after two days discussing case management – is that normal?) and reported in the mainstream media?

    Mr Eagles deleted a bunch of comments on this story yesterday, fair to say there’s a number of conspiracy theories out there.

    I’d stick carefully to MSM reporting with no additional commentary if mentioning the trial here.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,689
    edited April 30
    Artemis II astronauts had their day in the White House yesterday.

    https://x.com/whitehouse/status/2049647714728570948
    https://x.com/ibraheemch333/status/2049582292977570132
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 3,146
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Men worried about having a small penis need to know they CAN grow it
    https://www.dailymail.com/health/article-15756501/urologist-men-small-penis-growth-treatment.html

    I'll report back if it works. Oh, hold on...

    Have you tried rubbing it?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 81,143
    Starmer is fortunate the LEs aren't as extensive as 1995 or Sir John's 2018 losses would have definitely gone as a record
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 23,704
    rcs1000 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Election expert Lord Hayward's predictions for next week's local elections...

    🔴 - 1,850 seats for Labour
    🔵 - 600 seats for Tories
    🟣 + 1,550 seats for Reform
    🟢 + 500 seats for Greens
    🟡 + 150 seats for Lib Dem Dems
    ⚪️ + 250 seats for independents

    https://x.com/ashcowburn/status/2049602121990013263?s=20

    I think the Reform number is about right, but I think this is probably too optimstic for the Tories and the Independents, and not optimistic enough for the Greens, and probably the LDs too.
    Greens looking to get 1000 so plus 850
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