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Tears for Keir next Friday? – politicalbetting.com

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  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,196
    Sandpit said:

    Ukraine news 1:

    Perm is still on fire, new explosions overnight at the refinery and pumping station site.

    https://x.com/gerashchenko_en/status/2049759633808474304

    Ukraine news 2:

    Two Russian patrol boats were taken out near the Kerch Bridge.

    https://x.com/defenceu/status/2049735936490041780

    Worth noting on the Kerch bridge that this was an attack by Ukrainian naval drones - so the drones managed to travel all the way around the Crimean peninsula to complete this mission.

    Would it be easier and more effective for Ukraine to attack the Kerch bridge with naval drones than with missiles?
  • FossFoss Posts: 2,726
    Pulpstar said:

    Long term biggest problem for pensions isn't how long Gen-Xers then millennials are going to live compared to the current boomer pensions it's the utter collapse in birthrate that won't give enough taxpayers. The forecast population pyramids tell the story.

    Then tie 50% of the value of a pension to the tax paid by a person's children? No cutouts?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,383
    Somebody yesterday posted a poll showing the Republicans and Democrats were on the same % on a generic Congressional ballot.

    Well, this one says the Dems lead by 6%.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IfeR2kcQ8Hw

    "A re-allignment in real time."

  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,196

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    IanB2 said:

    malcolmg said:

    For all the pensioner haters on here who whine about them not paying tax.

    The number of taxpayers of pension age increased by 1.02 million or 14.4% since the previous tax year, as the triple lock continues to push retirement incomes up.

    This means people of state pension age account for 22.2% of all taxpayers and 16.2% of total income.

    There were almost 8.2 million people of state pension age paying tax and 7.8 million people paying tax whose main source of income was their pension, the research shows.

    Griffin added: “While part of this increase reflects demographic change as the pension‑age population grows, rising retirement incomes combined with frozen allowances are clearly playing a major role.

    "The triple lock has been vital in protecting pensioner incomes during a period of high inflation, but its interaction with frozen personal allowances is creating unintended consequences. In practice, state pension increases designed to preserve living standards are increasingly being clawed back through tax, particularly where even modest private pension income is involved.”

    Thanks for confirming they are richer than ever. Which begs the question why do the rest of us have to hand over an ever increasing share of GDP to them?

    That's what I thought, too. Malc is making the same mistake as those who quote the statistic that the rich pay some high proportion of all our taxes, thinking this indicates some sort of merit whereas in reality it simply illustrates that the rich are getting most of the money in the first place.
    Nobody mentioned the rich and majority of pensioners are far from rich. Most will be paying tax on income under 20K which you probably spend on a holiday
    So how about we give all the future pension rises for say the next 10 years from those pensioners with income over 50k to those under 25k?

    I'd be fine with that and keeping the triple lock for that period.
    I paid for over 50 years for my state pension , not so it could all go to lazy barstewards who would whoop it up and live off my hard graft. Time people in this country learned that you are entitled to nothing you do not earn through your own endeavours. Apart from disabled people who may not be able to work , the rest should be encouraged by much less largesse to get off their butts and look after themselves rather than us importing people to do the jobs they don't fancy.
    Nope. You paid for 50 yars to pay for the pensions of those who were receiving state pension during those years. The NI contributions have never been about 'saving' for your own pension. That was made explicitly clear when the system was set up. You pay for those who are currently retired and the social contract is that when it is your turn to retire the current workforce pays for you. It isa system built on the basic hope that there will be enough people working at any given time to pay for the pensions of all those who have retired.

    Not that I disagree with you entirely. For those of working age who won't work, benefits should be an absolute minimum safety net and nothing more.
    Richard, I don't hold with that old chestnut. They never announced state pensions by saying eveybody will pay now for previous workers pensions. It has been mismanagement by politicians using the cash and then pushing that lie. Other countries actually keep their pension funds to be used for pensions. Agree on benefits , far too easy to get , ever increasing amounts and are now a lifestyle / career rather than a safety net and in many many instances a far better career than people who work all their lives.
    Wrong I am afraid. Both in the 1942 Beveridge report and in the 1946 National Insurance Act it was explicit that current contributions would be paying for current pensioners. Attlee and his ministers also made it very clear at the time. It was the only way the system could work at that time given the state of post war finances.
    It was the explicit plan when State Pensions were invented.

    Because the population was growing - no one could conceive (ha!) of a birth rate below 2.1, so it was the cheap way to do pensions.
    A lot of economic calculations are made on the same basis - hence the discount rate applied to future earnings/costs. But when the population starts to decline everything changes. We are not remotely prepared for this.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 28,766
    "Fredo, you broke my heart"

    RaynerDaggersStarmer


  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 81,143
    Only prosperous (By gdp per cap north of 50k) with a birth rate over 2 is err

    Saudi Arabia !

    https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/children-per-woman-fertility-rate-vs-level-of-prosperity
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,383

    Sandpit said:

    Ukraine news 1:

    Perm is still on fire, new explosions overnight at the refinery and pumping station site.

    https://x.com/gerashchenko_en/status/2049759633808474304

    Ukraine news 2:

    Two Russian patrol boats were taken out near the Kerch Bridge.

    https://x.com/defenceu/status/2049735936490041780

    Worth noting on the Kerch bridge that this was an attack by Ukrainian naval drones - so the drones managed to travel all the way around the Crimean peninsula to complete this mission.

    Would it be easier and more effective for Ukraine to attack the Kerch bridge with naval drones than with missiles?
    I think they would have to get A LOT of them together with one detonation for that to work.

    What everyone has discovered is that the Kerch bridge foundations are really, really solid.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 8,260

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5yxley0pp5o

    Concerning and rather strange story about the police lying

    That's an astonishing story. Note that it starts with this:
    On 13 March 2021, Buzzard-Quashie was arrested at her home in Ealing, west London, on suspicion of sending malicious communications after posting on Instagram some racist messages she had received from former acquaintances.
    And then it escalates to an extraordinary degree.
    You would have thought that a Chief Constable committing Contempt of Court would be an act of gross misconduct, and Misconduct in Public Office
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,383
    viewcode said:

    "Fredo, you broke my heart"

    RaynerDaggersStarmer


    You could smell the disdain from a thousand paces.

    "This is one hell of a legacy you'll have left me... Thanks a bunch."
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,196
    Pulpstar said:

    Only prosperous (By gdp per cap north of 50k) with a birth rate over 2 is err

    Saudi Arabia !

    https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/children-per-woman-fertility-rate-vs-level-of-prosperity

    Israel is the interesting standout, in being a wealthy country with a high birth rate, but that doesn't have its wealth boosted by resource exports. GDP per capita $44k and birth rate 2.83.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,687

    Sandpit said:

    Ukraine news 1:

    Perm is still on fire, new explosions overnight at the refinery and pumping station site.

    https://x.com/gerashchenko_en/status/2049759633808474304

    Ukraine news 2:

    Two Russian patrol boats were taken out near the Kerch Bridge.

    https://x.com/defenceu/status/2049735936490041780

    Worth noting on the Kerch bridge that this was an attack by Ukrainian naval drones - so the drones managed to travel all the way around the Crimean peninsula to complete this mission.

    Would it be easier and more effective for Ukraine to attack the Kerch bridge with naval drones than with missiles?
    The bridge itself is almost impossible to take out from below, you need dozens of tonnes of explosives to do it and a boat doesn’t provide sufficient shape to the explosion.

    The one attempt that did work, was from a lorry on the bridge deck, but the Russians have since installed customs-style scanners at each end to stop that method of attack.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,951

    Somebody yesterday posted a poll showing the Republicans and Democrats were on the same % on a generic Congressional ballot.

    Well, this one says the Dems lead by 6%.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IfeR2kcQ8Hw

    "A re-allignment in real time."

    https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls

    5.8% average according to Nate Silver.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 50,691
    edited April 30

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    In the latest "follow the money" news a foreign based billionaire gave Farage £5 million personally, which was not declared.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/apr/29/revealed-nigel-farage-was-given-undisclosed-5m-by-crypto-billionaire-in-2024?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

    What does he expect in return, and why could Farage not buy his own house in Clacton when he has that sort of money?

    Yesterday whilst looking for an old thread I saw one where the Lord Alli donations story was at its apotheosis, curiously those pro Reform posters who criticised Starmer over that were curiously silent yesterday over this story.
    If Farage had also piously pitched himself as Mr Integrity, a humble new broom to sweep away the sleaze of the previous government, their curious silence would be worthy of criticism itself
    I think the transgression - of a politician being bought by gifts from private individuals, rather than serving the people of the country - should be considered more of a problem than hypocrisy about the transgression.

    Are you really that relaxed about a politician being bought just as long as they never pretended not to be for sale?
    Ok with corrupt politicians so long as they aren't 'holier than thou' with it - this is a common sentiment on the populist right. It's a convenient sentiment too because it tends to exculpate their guys (Farage being a good example) and instead demonise 'lefty hypocrites' - ie politicians on the left who fail to live up to the lofty values that those on the left are more likely to have or profess to have.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,526
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ukraine news 1:

    Perm is still on fire, new explosions overnight at the refinery and pumping station site.

    https://x.com/gerashchenko_en/status/2049759633808474304

    Ukraine news 2:

    Two Russian patrol boats were taken out near the Kerch Bridge.

    https://x.com/defenceu/status/2049735936490041780

    Worth noting on the Kerch bridge that this was an attack by Ukrainian naval drones - so the drones managed to travel all the way around the Crimean peninsula to complete this mission.

    Would it be easier and more effective for Ukraine to attack the Kerch bridge with naval drones than with missiles?
    The bridge itself is almost impossible to take out from below, you need dozens of tonnes of explosives to do it and a boat doesn’t provide sufficient shape to the explosion.

    The one attempt that did work, was from a lorry on the bridge deck, but the Russians have since installed customs-style scanners at each end to stop that method of attack.
    Narco sub tech plus automated guidance. A giant electric torpedo, essentially.

    You could do a 10 ton warhead fairly easily.

    {starts humming the Dam Busters theme}
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,951
    This story on the bbc about organised crime targeting trading standards officers with persistent violence and intimidation confirms we really do need to get a grip on crime.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdxplq92rx1o

    Not just token headlines like stiffer sentences but real investment (and process improvements) in courts, prisons and rehabilitation.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,196

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ukraine news 1:

    Perm is still on fire, new explosions overnight at the refinery and pumping station site.

    https://x.com/gerashchenko_en/status/2049759633808474304

    Ukraine news 2:

    Two Russian patrol boats were taken out near the Kerch Bridge.

    https://x.com/defenceu/status/2049735936490041780

    Worth noting on the Kerch bridge that this was an attack by Ukrainian naval drones - so the drones managed to travel all the way around the Crimean peninsula to complete this mission.

    Would it be easier and more effective for Ukraine to attack the Kerch bridge with naval drones than with missiles?
    The bridge itself is almost impossible to take out from below, you need dozens of tonnes of explosives to do it and a boat doesn’t provide sufficient shape to the explosion.

    The one attempt that did work, was from a lorry on the bridge deck, but the Russians have since installed customs-style scanners at each end to stop that method of attack.
    Narco sub tech plus automated guidance. A giant electric torpedo, essentially.

    You could do a 10 ton warhead fairly easily.

    {starts humming the Dam Busters theme}
    Oh yes. Ukraine showed off something like that last year. With a 5 tonne warhead.

    https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-showcases-underwater-drones-with-2-000-km-strike-capability/
  • Why do I feel like the Ukraine war is going to go on forever. Another month and it just goes on and on
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,526

    Why do I feel like the Ukraine war is going to go on forever. Another month and it just goes on and on

    Because it is.

    The Ukrainians have successfully implemented the Falkenhayn strategy (didn’t work for Falkenhayn) - a meat grinder for the enemy.

    It’s the scene from the film Runaway, running thousands of times a day.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 81,143

    This story on the bbc about organised crime targeting trading standards officers with persistent violence and intimidation confirms we really do need to get a grip on crime.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdxplq92rx1o

    Not just token headlines like stiffer sentences but real investment (and process improvements) in courts, prisons and rehabilitation.

    £415 fine for battery. Absolute joke, you can get more on a traffic offence.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,196

    Why do I feel like the Ukraine war is going to go on forever. Another month and it just goes on and on

    Note that King Charles, in his address to Congress, did not call for Russia's defeat, but for a just and lasting peace. What this indicates is that Ukraine's western supporters are mostly aiming for a situation where Russia decides to call it quits and there's a ceasefire on the current front line, rather than a Russian defeat where Ukraine regains its territory.

    The problem with this approach is that Putin and Russia believe that they have more stamina for the war than the west - and if Farage, Le Pen and AfD take power at future elections in Britain, France and Germany then they might be right. The west is aiming for an end to the war that isn't possible.

    This leaves only two possible outcomes for the war - Russian defeat or Ukrainian defeat. The west is still providing Ukraine with enough support to prevent a Ukrainian defeat, but not enough support to force a Russian defeat. So the war drags on.

    Ukraine's drone developments might eventually provide it with a sufficient technological edge to prevail. The drone deals that they have recently made with countries in the Middle East are an interesting step as they increase Ukraine's strategic autonomy and provide it with extra support that isn't dependent on European voters.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 50,691
    scampi25 said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    In the latest "follow the money" news a foreign based billionaire gave Farage £5 million personally, which was not declared.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/apr/29/revealed-nigel-farage-was-given-undisclosed-5m-by-crypto-billionaire-in-2024?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

    What does he expect in return, and why could Farage not buy his own house in Clacton when he has that sort of money?

    Yesterday whilst looking for an old thread I saw one where the Lord Alli donations story was at its apotheosis, curiously those pro Reform posters who criticised Starmer over that were curiously silent yesterday over this story.
    If Farage had also piously pitched himself as Mr Integrity, a humble new broom to sweep away the sleaze of the previous government, their curious silence would be worthy of criticism itself
    I think the transgression - of a politician being bought by gifts from private individuals, rather than serving the people of the country - should be considered more of a problem than hypocrisy about the transgression.

    Are you really that relaxed about a politician being bought just as long as they never pretended not to be for sale?
    No, I don’t like Farage’s antics with money, but my point was it isn’t hypocritical for people to have criticised Sor Keir over his gifts but not Farage here, as the point about Lord Alli-gate was how it clashed with Starmer’s piousness.

    It’s like not mentioning George Best turning up pissed and making a fool of himself after laughing when Mary Whitehouse did it. Doesn’t mean drinking heavily is good, just that onesie more noteworthy than the other
    Your metaphor rather omits the scale of Farage's "antics". £5 million in cash. This is nothing like Starmer getting some free concert tickets.
    No it just shows how utterly crap Starmer is at everything he does. A little man on almost every sense.
    So we prefer our grift in politics to be big and breezy, do we?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 34,523

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5yxley0pp5o

    Concerning and rather strange story about the police lying

    That's an astonishing story. Note that it starts with this:
    On 13 March 2021, Buzzard-Quashie was arrested at her home in Ealing, west London, on suspicion of sending malicious communications after posting on Instagram some racist messages she had received from former acquaintances.
    And then it escalates to an extraordinary degree.
    You would have thought that a Chief Constable committing Contempt of Court would be an act of gross misconduct, and Misconduct in Public Office
    Yep. Would be good to see all those concerned thrown out of the police and charged.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,126

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5yxley0pp5o

    Concerning and rather strange story about the police lying

    That's an astonishing story. Note that it starts with this:
    On 13 March 2021, Buzzard-Quashie was arrested at her home in Ealing, west London, on suspicion of sending malicious communications after posting on Instagram some racist messages she had received from former acquaintances.
    And then it escalates to an extraordinary degree.
    I wonder if the senders of the messages ever had their collars felt.

    It seems obscene when she’s the victim of these messages she’s arrested for them.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,526

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5yxley0pp5o

    Concerning and rather strange story about the police lying

    That's an astonishing story. Note that it starts with this:
    On 13 March 2021, Buzzard-Quashie was arrested at her home in Ealing, west London, on suspicion of sending malicious communications after posting on Instagram some racist messages she had received from former acquaintances.
    And then it escalates to an extraordinary degree.
    You would have thought that a Chief Constable committing Contempt of Court would be an act of gross misconduct, and Misconduct in Public Office
    Yep. Would be good to see all those concerned thrown out of the police and charged.
    Misconduct in a public office? Deliberately lying to a court over a serious matter of evidence over a protracted period sounds like it.

    @PBLawyers?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,687

    Why do I feel like the Ukraine war is going to go on forever. Another month and it just goes on and on

    The Russian collapse will happen slowly, until it suddenly happens quickly.

    Their own media in Moscow is now talking about military parades with no tanks, their central bank is looking to stop large withdrawals and ‘invest’ savings account balances, they’ve lost many of their allies overseas, are about to lose Iran, the EU has just released the first tranche of a €90bn Ukrainian loan from seized Russian assets…
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,526

    Why do I feel like the Ukraine war is going to go on forever. Another month and it just goes on and on

    Note that King Charles, in his address to Congress, did not call for Russia's defeat, but for a just and lasting peace. What this indicates is that Ukraine's western supporters are mostly aiming for a situation where Russia decides to call it quits and there's a ceasefire on the current front line, rather than a Russian defeat where Ukraine regains its territory.

    The problem with this approach is that Putin and Russia believe that they have more stamina for the war than the west - and if Farage, Le Pen and AfD take power at future elections in Britain, France and Germany then they might be right. The west is aiming for an end to the war that isn't possible.

    This leaves only two possible outcomes for the war - Russian defeat or Ukrainian defeat. The west is still providing Ukraine with enough support to prevent a Ukrainian defeat, but not enough support to force a Russian defeat. So the war drags on.

    Ukraine's drone developments might eventually provide it with a sufficient technological edge to prevail. The drone deals that they have recently made with countries in the Middle East are an interesting step as they increase Ukraine's strategic autonomy and provide it with extra support that isn't dependent on European voters.
    A just and lasting peace can mean anything.

    The Romans thought they achieved a just and lasting peace against Carthage.

    Equally many though Versailles was a just and lasting peace.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,196
    Taz said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5yxley0pp5o

    Concerning and rather strange story about the police lying

    That's an astonishing story. Note that it starts with this:
    On 13 March 2021, Buzzard-Quashie was arrested at her home in Ealing, west London, on suspicion of sending malicious communications after posting on Instagram some racist messages she had received from former acquaintances.
    And then it escalates to an extraordinary degree.
    I wonder if the senders of the messages ever had their collars felt.

    It seems obscene when she’s the victim of these messages she’s arrested for them.
    I suspect that the senders of the messages have friends in the police, which is why she was arrested for "maliciously" posting the messages they'd sent her in the first place - but it's possible the police simply react on autopilot when they receive such a report (I'm not sure whether that would be better or worse).
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,233
    Pulpstar said:

    This story on the bbc about organised crime targeting trading standards officers with persistent violence and intimidation confirms we really do need to get a grip on crime.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdxplq92rx1o

    Not just token headlines like stiffer sentences but real investment (and process improvements) in courts, prisons and rehabilitation.

    £415 fine for battery. Absolute joke, you can get more on a traffic offence.
    It feels as these stories bubble and bubble for years, becoming common knowledge amongst the public, and then finally a BBC article pushes the governement into doing something.

    "A couple of months later, Mandy's new car - parked outside her house - was rammed off the road in the early hours by an uninsured car connected to one of the defendants.

    "It was over £10,000 of damage. It was a brand new car. We only had it for about three weeks," she says.

    Just after her car had been repaired, it was rammed again in the middle of the night, and had to be written off. It had been hit by another car insured by one of the defendants, she says.

    After two years of constant intimidation, the pressure became too much for Mandy and her husband. They decided to sell their house and move.

    "This was supposed to be my forever home and we've just finished renovating it after 10 years," she says.

    On police advice, the couple used three different removal companies and staggered their move to make sure the criminals did not find out her new address.

    "I emigrated from South Africa to get away from that fear in your own home," she tells us."

    Well, quite.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 8,260

    Why do I feel like the Ukraine war is going to go on forever. Another month and it just goes on and on

    Neither side has a strategic advantage, it will continue until one side has, or the other can't take it any more.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,196
    Sandpit said:

    Why do I feel like the Ukraine war is going to go on forever. Another month and it just goes on and on

    The Russian collapse will happen slowly, until it suddenly happens quickly.

    Their own media in Moscow is now talking about military parades with no tanks, their central bank is looking to stop large withdrawals and ‘invest’ savings account balances, they’ve lost many of their allies overseas, are about to lose Iran, the EU has just released the first tranche of a €90bn Ukrainian loan from seized Russian assets…
    Yes, though they're receiving a boost in oil income thanks to Trump's Folly in Iran. And there's a long way to go until Russia are forced to stop. With the French Presidential election in 2027 and the next national elections in Britain and Germany no later than 2029, there's an incentive for Russia to hang on and see if European support for Ukraine can be blocked by pro-Russian populists.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 15,630

    Why do I feel like the Ukraine war is going to go on forever. Another month and it just goes on and on

    It'll probably carry on this way with Russia grinding out ~100km2 week gains and Ukraine doing sabotage operations deep inside Russia while incinerating Western Europe's money until there is a change of political leadership in Kiev or Moscow. Both sides have manpower constraints that they are more or less managing while making huge strides in UAV tech and doctrine.

    VVP has bought Surovikin back in from the cold and he immediately switched the focus to the Vovchansk area so that might make a difference but probably not. Zaluzhniy is clearly campaigning to be President of Ukraine from his London office and that won't make a difference because while he's a corrupt, ultra-nationalist headbanger he doesn't have access to the oligarch money needed to succeed in Ukrainian politics.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,126

    This story on the bbc about organised crime targeting trading standards officers with persistent violence and intimidation confirms we really do need to get a grip on crime.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdxplq92rx1o

    Not just token headlines like stiffer sentences but real investment (and process improvements) in courts, prisons and rehabilitation.

    Yet they keep getting away with it, as do people dumping waste illegally on an industrial scale (with the odd exception) and as do many shoplifters who just help themselves where the solution is sacking shop workers or putting goods behind the counter meanwhile petty officialdom clamps down on people for minor issues to shake some cash out of them.

    It is things like this that help make people feel this country is not on the right track.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/c8drg47rerno



  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,526
    Taz said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5yxley0pp5o

    Concerning and rather strange story about the police lying

    That's an astonishing story. Note that it starts with this:
    On 13 March 2021, Buzzard-Quashie was arrested at her home in Ealing, west London, on suspicion of sending malicious communications after posting on Instagram some racist messages she had received from former acquaintances.
    And then it escalates to an extraordinary degree.
    I wonder if the senders of the messages ever had their collars felt.

    It seems obscene when she’s the victim of these messages she’s arrested for them.
    Why is it obscene? She was in possession of the messages, then posted them herself. According to the technicality of the law she was guilty. The process was obeyed.

    You are suggesting using personal judgement and morality for decision making.

    That’s probably a criminal offence.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 5,208
    HYUFD said:



    The Greens would likely still get about 10-15% even against Rayner so I would expect a Labour Party from the left to get no more than 25% now, Reform 25 to 30% and the Conservatives maybe 20 to 25% and the LDs 15 to 20% against a Rayner led Labour too

    No.

    With about half of the Greens current support coming from 2024 Labour voters defecting to the left, and with Polanski having already said that Rayner is his preferred choice of Labour leader, there is no basis whatsoever to expect the Greens to poll more than 10% in a GE with Rayner as leader. 8% to 10% maybe.

    2024 Labour voters in general have better net expectations of Rayner as PM than they do of Starmer now as PM (-6% v -13% net), and some of current Lib Dem support is coming from that source. 2024 Lib Dem voters are marginally less unfavourable to Rayner than Starmer (-23% v -26%). Almost no LD support is currently coming from 2024 Con voters. So realistically 10% to 12% is my expected range for the Lib Dems under Rayner, marginally down on now.

    With the Greens and LDs getting less than your estimate, that points to a midpoint of Lab 27% under Rayner, Greens about 9% and LDs 11%. 47% combined.

    The midpoint of your estimate of Reform and Conservative support is 50%. I think you are being a tad optimistic (from your perspective). 47% maybe, with Reform also on 27% and Con on 20%.

    That's as things stand now.

    But in addition, there's the opportunity to use Burnham to bolster a Labour led by Rayner, in a way that Starmer cannot. Rayner and Burnham are close political allies, and it is in Rayner's interests to bend over backwards to get Burnham back into her Cabinet in a senior position (Deputy PM, replacing Lammy, with responsibility for devolution as per Prescott?) either as a Lord (which he can do while remaining as GM Metro mayor) or as an MP. There would then be potential for Labour to run almost on a joint ticket of Rayner and Burnham, much as the 2005 GE campaign became a Blair/Brown double act with the popularity of Brown being used to shore up the campaign.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 58,890
    What I think is clear from the last week is that Starmer is not going to go quietly or easily. He is fighting tooth and nail to stay in post.

    Will this determination give the potential challengers pause? Do they really want to take over after a civil war in the party? I am starting to have my doubts about this happening.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,196

    Why do I feel like the Ukraine war is going to go on forever. Another month and it just goes on and on

    Note that King Charles, in his address to Congress, did not call for Russia's defeat, but for a just and lasting peace. What this indicates is that Ukraine's western supporters are mostly aiming for a situation where Russia decides to call it quits and there's a ceasefire on the current front line, rather than a Russian defeat where Ukraine regains its territory.

    The problem with this approach is that Putin and Russia believe that they have more stamina for the war than the west - and if Farage, Le Pen and AfD take power at future elections in Britain, France and Germany then they might be right. The west is aiming for an end to the war that isn't possible.

    This leaves only two possible outcomes for the war - Russian defeat or Ukrainian defeat. The west is still providing Ukraine with enough support to prevent a Ukrainian defeat, but not enough support to force a Russian defeat. So the war drags on.

    Ukraine's drone developments might eventually provide it with a sufficient technological edge to prevail. The drone deals that they have recently made with countries in the Middle East are an interesting step as they increase Ukraine's strategic autonomy and provide it with extra support that isn't dependent on European voters.
    A just and lasting peace can mean anything.

    The Romans thought they achieved a just and lasting peace against Carthage.

    Equally many though Versailles was a just and lasting peace.
    Indeed. If British policy were to support Ukraine to achieve victory, and the recovery of all its territory, then KCIII would have been able to say something more precise. Such a policy would require a greater level of British support to achieve its ends.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,126

    Taz said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5yxley0pp5o

    Concerning and rather strange story about the police lying

    That's an astonishing story. Note that it starts with this:
    On 13 March 2021, Buzzard-Quashie was arrested at her home in Ealing, west London, on suspicion of sending malicious communications after posting on Instagram some racist messages she had received from former acquaintances.
    And then it escalates to an extraordinary degree.
    I wonder if the senders of the messages ever had their collars felt.

    It seems obscene when she’s the victim of these messages she’s arrested for them.
    Why is it obscene? She was in possession of the messages, then posted them herself. According to the technicality of the law she was guilty. The process was obeyed.

    You are suggesting using personal judgement and morality for decision making.

    That’s probably a criminal offence.
    True.

    I may hand myself in at my local station this afternoon, if it’s still open.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 15,630
    Sandpit said:

    Why do I feel like the Ukraine war is going to go on forever. Another month and it just goes on and on

    The Russian collapse will happen slowly, until it suddenly happens quickly.

    Their own media in Moscow is now talking about military parades with no tanks, their central bank is looking to stop large withdrawals and ‘invest’ savings account balances, they’ve lost many of their allies overseas, are about to lose Iran, the EU has just released the first tranche of a €90bn Ukrainian loan from seized Russian assets…
    The "loan" (it will never be repaid) is from the EU taxpayers, not frozen assets.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,526

    Taz said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5yxley0pp5o

    Concerning and rather strange story about the police lying

    That's an astonishing story. Note that it starts with this:
    On 13 March 2021, Buzzard-Quashie was arrested at her home in Ealing, west London, on suspicion of sending malicious communications after posting on Instagram some racist messages she had received from former acquaintances.
    And then it escalates to an extraordinary degree.
    I wonder if the senders of the messages ever had their collars felt.

    It seems obscene when she’s the victim of these messages she’s arrested for them.
    I suspect that the senders of the messages have friends in the police, which is why she was arrested for "maliciously" posting the messages they'd sent her in the first place - but it's possible the police simply react on autopilot when they receive such a report (I'm not sure whether that would be better or worse).
    I bet you thought I was joking about my suggesting that Chief Constable Ronald Savage OBE was instigating the arrest of black people for ordering their coffee as “black”?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,196
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Why do I feel like the Ukraine war is going to go on forever. Another month and it just goes on and on

    The Russian collapse will happen slowly, until it suddenly happens quickly.

    Their own media in Moscow is now talking about military parades with no tanks, their central bank is looking to stop large withdrawals and ‘invest’ savings account balances, they’ve lost many of their allies overseas, are about to lose Iran, the EU has just released the first tranche of a €90bn Ukrainian loan from seized Russian assets…
    The "loan" (it will never be repaid) is from the EU taxpayers, not frozen assets.
    Technically speaking the loan is borrowed money and EU taxpayers only have to pay the interest on it.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 5,208
    DavidL said:

    What I think is clear from the last week is that Starmer is not going to go quietly or easily. He is fighting tooth and nail to stay in post.

    Will this determination give the potential challengers pause? Do they really want to take over after a civil war in the party? I am starting to have my doubts about this happening.

    It shouldn't.

    Political bloodbaths don't always erode support for a party. The bloodbath that eventually forced out an unrecalcitrant Thatcher did more to boost the fortunes of the Conservatives led by Major and Heseltine than if she had simply been persuaded to step down quietly.

    Likewise, the public has so turned against Starmer that anyone who is seen as instrumental in started a messy bloodbath in the Labour Party in order to force Starmer out is going to emerge with great credit in the eyes of the wider public.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 15,630

    Sandpit said:

    Why do I feel like the Ukraine war is going to go on forever. Another month and it just goes on and on

    The Russian collapse will happen slowly, until it suddenly happens quickly.

    Their own media in Moscow is now talking about military parades with no tanks, their central bank is looking to stop large withdrawals and ‘invest’ savings account balances, they’ve lost many of their allies overseas, are about to lose Iran, the EU has just released the first tranche of a €90bn Ukrainian loan from seized Russian assets…
    Yes, though they're receiving a boost in oil income thanks to Trump's Folly in Iran. And there's a long way to go until Russia are forced to stop. With the French Presidential election in 2027 and the next national elections in Britain and Germany no later than 2029, there's an incentive for Russia to hang on and see if European support for Ukraine can be blocked by pro-Russian populists.
    There will be a new President of the European Commission in 2029 which will be hugely important in terms of technical and financial assistance for whatever's left of Ukraine. It's hard to see who it will be from this distance, but France will push very hard to get their person in.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,951
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Why do I feel like the Ukraine war is going to go on forever. Another month and it just goes on and on

    The Russian collapse will happen slowly, until it suddenly happens quickly.

    Their own media in Moscow is now talking about military parades with no tanks, their central bank is looking to stop large withdrawals and ‘invest’ savings account balances, they’ve lost many of their allies overseas, are about to lose Iran, the EU has just released the first tranche of a €90bn Ukrainian loan from seized Russian assets…
    The "loan" (it will never be repaid) is from the EU taxpayers, not frozen assets.
    (47) In line with the firm support of 25 Heads of State and Government in the margins of the
    European Council of 18 December 2025, the Ukraine Support Loan should be repaid by
    Ukraine once reparations from Russia are received, and the Union reserves its right to make
    use of the Russian assets immobilised in the Union to repay the loan, in full accordance with
    EU and international law.

    https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-5942-2026-INIT/en/pdf
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,190

    Why do I feel like the Ukraine war is going to go on forever. Another month and it just goes on and on

    Because it is.

    The Ukrainians have successfully implemented the Falkenhayn strategy (didn’t work for Falkenhayn) - a meat grinder for the enemy.

    It’s the scene from the film Runaway, running thousands of times a day.
    Falkenhayn's strategy might have worked if the French hadn't had the British (plus Aussies, Kiwis and Canadians) to take the slack. As it was the mutinies in the French ranks in 1917 were pretty serious stuff.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,526

    Why do I feel like the Ukraine war is going to go on forever. Another month and it just goes on and on

    Note that King Charles, in his address to Congress, did not call for Russia's defeat, but for a just and lasting peace. What this indicates is that Ukraine's western supporters are mostly aiming for a situation where Russia decides to call it quits and there's a ceasefire on the current front line, rather than a Russian defeat where Ukraine regains its territory.

    The problem with this approach is that Putin and Russia believe that they have more stamina for the war than the west - and if Farage, Le Pen and AfD take power at future elections in Britain, France and Germany then they might be right. The west is aiming for an end to the war that isn't possible.

    This leaves only two possible outcomes for the war - Russian defeat or Ukrainian defeat. The west is still providing Ukraine with enough support to prevent a Ukrainian defeat, but not enough support to force a Russian defeat. So the war drags on.

    Ukraine's drone developments might eventually provide it with a sufficient technological edge to prevail. The drone deals that they have recently made with countries in the Middle East are an interesting step as they increase Ukraine's strategic autonomy and provide it with extra support that isn't dependent on European voters.
    A just and lasting peace can mean anything.

    The Romans thought they achieved a just and lasting peace against Carthage.

    Equally many though Versailles was a just and lasting peace.
    Indeed. If British policy were to support Ukraine to achieve victory, and the recovery of all its territory, then KCIII would have been able to say something more precise. Such a policy would require a greater level of British support to achieve its ends.
    No one knows how the Ukraine war will end.

    You’d think at a helicopter level that the Russians will catch up with Ukrainian drone tech and rebalance the battlefield. But there is a technological barrier there - access to high speed, secure satellite comms.

    The Ukrainians have nearly unlimited bandwidth to play with.

    Until the Chinese get their constellations running, this will not be available to Russia.

    That is the next strategic divide.

    And the Chinese are just a few years from operation..
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 23,703
    Sandpit said:

    Why do I feel like the Ukraine war is going to go on forever. Another month and it just goes on and on

    The Russian collapse will happen slowly, until it suddenly happens quickly.

    Their own media in Moscow is now talking about military parades with no tanks, their central bank is looking to stop large withdrawals and ‘invest’ savings account balances, they’ve lost many of their allies overseas, are about to lose Iran, the EU has just released the first tranche of a €90bn Ukrainian loan from seized Russian assets…
    You have been saying this since 2022 so forgive me if I ignore you on this
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,561

    Somebody yesterday posted a poll showing the Republicans and Democrats were on the same % on a generic Congressional ballot.

    Well, this one says the Dems lead by 6%.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IfeR2kcQ8Hw

    "A re-allignment in real time."

    There was a poll yesterday showing Talarico leads in Texas against both potential Republicans.
    Although MOE it does show Texas will continue to flirt with flipping, but never do so. Until it does.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 81,143

    I just walked by a road sign to a village called ST AGNANT

    Bonne vacance are you planning on swinging by https://www.chateausaintjeandangle.fr/ today ?
  • malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    IanB2 said:

    malcolmg said:

    For all the pensioner haters on here who whine about them not paying tax.

    The number of taxpayers of pension age increased by 1.02 million or 14.4% since the previous tax year, as the triple lock continues to push retirement incomes up.

    This means people of state pension age account for 22.2% of all taxpayers and 16.2% of total income.

    There were almost 8.2 million people of state pension age paying tax and 7.8 million people paying tax whose main source of income was their pension, the research shows.

    Griffin added: “While part of this increase reflects demographic change as the pension‑age population grows, rising retirement incomes combined with frozen allowances are clearly playing a major role.

    "The triple lock has been vital in protecting pensioner incomes during a period of high inflation, but its interaction with frozen personal allowances is creating unintended consequences. In practice, state pension increases designed to preserve living standards are increasingly being clawed back through tax, particularly where even modest private pension income is involved.”

    Thanks for confirming they are richer than ever. Which begs the question why do the rest of us have to hand over an ever increasing share of GDP to them?

    That's what I thought, too. Malc is making the same mistake as those who quote the statistic that the rich pay some high proportion of all our taxes, thinking this indicates some sort of merit whereas in reality it simply illustrates that the rich are getting most of the money in the first place.
    Nobody mentioned the rich and majority of pensioners are far from rich. Most will be paying tax on income under 20K which you probably spend on a holiday
    So how about we give all the future pension rises for say the next 10 years from those pensioners with income over 50k to those under 25k?

    I'd be fine with that and keeping the triple lock for that period.
    I paid for over 50 years for my state pension , not so it could all go to lazy barstewards who would whoop it up and live off my hard graft. Time people in this country learned that you are entitled to nothing you do not earn through your own endeavours. Apart from disabled people who may not be able to work , the rest should be encouraged by much less largesse to get off their butts and look after themselves rather than us importing people to do the jobs they don't fancy.
    You didn't. You paid 50 years because 1) it was the law 2) for your parents and grandparents state pensions.

    Hopefully you will at least stop using the pensioners who are far from rich as a shield in this argument as you clearly think them worthy of your contempt.
    I am always amazed that relatively intelligent people don’t understand how and who funds the state pension. I am guessing the commentator isn’t daft. But, if he doesn’t get it or chooses to actively misrepresent it, or it his “vibes” make him believe that he has paid for his state pension what chance has anyone in convincing the block vote of pensioners of the need to do meaningful reform to stop the daft ratchet of the triple lock.

    For what it is worth any whinge about pensioners paying tax annoys me while they continue to be protected from NI.

    There is the same challenge with adult social care and NHS spending. More folks are placing greater demands, but there are fewer healthy working age people able to prop it up.
    The commentator is far from daft and knows very well how it is funded, how politicians squander it rather than having a proper fund. You have to be stupid if you do not know that currently paying NI for 35 years or sponging off the state for same period entitles you to a state pension. There are no restrictions on your financial position regarding getting the state pension you are entitled to, suggest you go read the gov website on the topic if you are confused.
    You also seem to be very confused as when in receipt of said state pension the rules are you do not pay further NI after receiving your entitled pension at age 67.
    Fact that you are an envious greedy git that does not like paying NI is neither here nor there.
    I suggest you get a life , stop being envious of 67 year olds and save for when you get there, if you are that lucky.
    As ever a charming response from a clearly a charming person. I thought I was relatively respectful of you. If you know how it is funded, why do every time you write about it does it seem that like you don’t?

    And my point wasn’t really about you it is about how the UK has a sensible debate about how the state funds retirement (and ill health that ensues) adequately, while ensuring the working age population also can be productive and actually have some take home pay to save their own retirement.

    But you actively misrepresented that point. Ultimately more money is being spent on the oldest in society - health is the biggest component of central government expenditure the next biggest item is pensions. If you look at council spending - i.e. what council tax funds - vast majority of that budget will go on adult social care. All those numbers are going up year-on-year. My question is what do you do about that? Get more taxpayers in to prop up the oldest? Cut all other spending back to nothing (working age and child benefits are significant lower than the pension bill)? Or something else?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,627
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Why do I feel like the Ukraine war is going to go on forever. Another month and it just goes on and on

    The Russian collapse will happen slowly, until it suddenly happens quickly.

    Their own media in Moscow is now talking about military parades with no tanks, their central bank is looking to stop large withdrawals and ‘invest’ savings account balances, they’ve lost many of their allies overseas, are about to lose Iran, the EU has just released the first tranche of a €90bn Ukrainian loan from seized Russian assets…
    The "loan" (it will never be repaid) is from the EU taxpayers, not frozen assets.
    it's also an investment in the future security of Europe, which would be massively compromised by a Ukrainian defeat.
    The cost of dealing with the consequences of that would be a great deal more.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 15,630

    Why do I feel like the Ukraine war is going to go on forever. Another month and it just goes on and on

    Note that King Charles, in his address to Congress, did not call for Russia's defeat, but for a just and lasting peace. What this indicates is that Ukraine's western supporters are mostly aiming for a situation where Russia decides to call it quits and there's a ceasefire on the current front line, rather than a Russian defeat where Ukraine regains its territory.

    The problem with this approach is that Putin and Russia believe that they have more stamina for the war than the west - and if Farage, Le Pen and AfD take power at future elections in Britain, France and Germany then they might be right. The west is aiming for an end to the war that isn't possible.

    This leaves only two possible outcomes for the war - Russian defeat or Ukrainian defeat. The west is still providing Ukraine with enough support to prevent a Ukrainian defeat, but not enough support to force a Russian defeat. So the war drags on.

    Ukraine's drone developments might eventually provide it with a sufficient technological edge to prevail. The drone deals that they have recently made with countries in the Middle East are an interesting step as they increase Ukraine's strategic autonomy and provide it with extra support that isn't dependent on European voters.
    A just and lasting peace can mean anything.

    The Romans thought they achieved a just and lasting peace against Carthage.

    Equally many though Versailles was a just and lasting peace.
    Indeed. If British policy were to support Ukraine to achieve victory, and the recovery of all its territory, then KCIII would have been able to say something more precise. Such a policy would require a greater level of British support to achieve its ends.
    No one knows how the Ukraine war will end.

    You’d think at a helicopter level that the Russians will catch up with Ukrainian drone tech and rebalance the battlefield. But there is a technological barrier there - access to high speed, secure satellite comms.
    They've started launching their own - "Рассвет" named after Dawn out of Emmerdale.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 7,936

    I just walked by a road sign to a village called ST AGNANT

    Oh, actually St Agnant is a little town where I’m going to try to stop for a beer
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,951
    edited April 30
    Nigelb said:

    This story on the bbc about organised crime targeting trading standards officers with persistent violence and intimidation confirms we really do need to get a grip on crime.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdxplq92rx1o

    Not just token headlines like stiffer sentences but real investment (and process improvements) in courts, prisons and rehabilitation.

    The police have effectively disclaimed responsibility for the widespread crime on taking place in the mini-marts, vape shops etc on the high streets of towns across the UK, and left policing it to trading standards - who clearly aren't equipped to tackle criminality on that scale.

    It's a part of what Rochdale was talking about in his header yesterday.

    The BBC deserve some credit for consistently investigating and leading on this story.
    Yes, very unfair to leave it to trading standards, and attempting to beef up local trading standards to deal with international organised crime is madness. It should be led by a national police agency against organised crime.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 13,449
    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Listening to Trump on the news, it seems that the great success of the King's visit has been to persuade Trump that Charles agrees with him on everything, and would have supported his Iran war.

    I'm not sure that's a very useful diplomatic achievement.

    Charles job is to maintain good relations between the UK and other nations, it's not to try and steer foreign policy. He has manifestly succeeded given the effective scope of his brief.

    It is not true global power, mind - Trump is not going to change course on Iran due to his visit.
    It may also redirect Trump’s negativity from the UK to Starmer’s government
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,196
    "Ukraine and Moldova scored above the United States and several EU countries in the latest Press Freedom Index released on April 30 by Reporters Without Borders."

    https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-overtakes-united-states-on-press-freedom/

    Interestingly, the top 6 countries in the index are all members of JEF, with Britain being the lowest-placed JEF member at 18th. So JEF members take 10 of the top 18 places.

    https://rsf.org/en/index?year=2026
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 13,449

    Election expert Lord Hayward's predictions for next week's local elections...

    🔴 - 1,850 seats for Labour
    🔵 - 600 seats for Tories
    🟣 + 1,550 seats for Reform
    🟢 + 500 seats for Greens
    🟡 + 150 seats for Lib Dem Dems
    ⚪️ + 250 seats for independents

    https://x.com/ashcowburn/status/2049602121990013263?s=20

    Seems to me the story is

    - disaster for Labour
    - One more heave for reform
    - Disappointment for the greens
    - Who are the Lib Dems?
    - Kemi gets away with it because mediocre isn’t an interesting headline
    If you look at the total seats won, you get a different picture. LibDems will be looking good.

    600 losses is a terrible night for the Tories, not "mediocre".

    The Greens will not be disappointed with those numbers.
    I was thinking about the media reaction not the parties
    I'm talking about the media reaction too. The media are not going to call 500 gains for the Greens "disappointing". I think they're more likely to use words like "historic".
    Not in the context of expectations and how Reform’s performance will be reported
  • TresTres Posts: 3,653

    I remain entertained by the concept that voters in Kent will see the abject failure of the Reform council to deliver any of their promises actually as a success actually because their council tax has actually gone up by £20 less than it could have done actually.

    Its about as disconnected from lived reality as you can get.

    No elections in Kent next week, afaik.
    voters in parts of Bromley and Bexley would disagree
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,383
    dixiedean said:

    Somebody yesterday posted a poll showing the Republicans and Democrats were on the same % on a generic Congressional ballot.

    Well, this one says the Dems lead by 6%.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IfeR2kcQ8Hw

    "A re-allignment in real time."

    There was a poll yesterday showing Talarico leads in Texas against both potential Republicans.
    Although MOE it does show Texas will continue to flirt with flipping, but never do so. Until it does.
    If the Dems are going to find a candidate that doesn't scare the God-fearing Republicans, it should be Talarico.

    If he makes it to being Senator, he could go all the way to the top.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,526
    Dura_Ace said:

    Why do I feel like the Ukraine war is going to go on forever. Another month and it just goes on and on

    Note that King Charles, in his address to Congress, did not call for Russia's defeat, but for a just and lasting peace. What this indicates is that Ukraine's western supporters are mostly aiming for a situation where Russia decides to call it quits and there's a ceasefire on the current front line, rather than a Russian defeat where Ukraine regains its territory.

    The problem with this approach is that Putin and Russia believe that they have more stamina for the war than the west - and if Farage, Le Pen and AfD take power at future elections in Britain, France and Germany then they might be right. The west is aiming for an end to the war that isn't possible.

    This leaves only two possible outcomes for the war - Russian defeat or Ukrainian defeat. The west is still providing Ukraine with enough support to prevent a Ukrainian defeat, but not enough support to force a Russian defeat. So the war drags on.

    Ukraine's drone developments might eventually provide it with a sufficient technological edge to prevail. The drone deals that they have recently made with countries in the Middle East are an interesting step as they increase Ukraine's strategic autonomy and provide it with extra support that isn't dependent on European voters.
    A just and lasting peace can mean anything.

    The Romans thought they achieved a just and lasting peace against Carthage.

    Equally many though Versailles was a just and lasting peace.
    Indeed. If British policy were to support Ukraine to achieve victory, and the recovery of all its territory, then KCIII would have been able to say something more precise. Such a policy would require a greater level of British support to achieve its ends.
    No one knows how the Ukraine war will end.

    You’d think at a helicopter level that the Russians will catch up with Ukrainian drone tech and rebalance the battlefield. But there is a technological barrier there - access to high speed, secure satellite comms.
    They've started launching their own - "Рассвет" named after Dawn out of Emmerdale.
    It’s a laughable piece of crap.

    This is because they can’t afford the launch rate to build a serious constellation.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,526

    Nigelb said:

    This story on the bbc about organised crime targeting trading standards officers with persistent violence and intimidation confirms we really do need to get a grip on crime.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdxplq92rx1o

    Not just token headlines like stiffer sentences but real investment (and process improvements) in courts, prisons and rehabilitation.

    The police have effectively disclaimed responsibility for the widespread crime on taking place in the mini-marts, vape shops etc on the high streets of towns across the UK, and left policing it to trading standards - who clearly aren't equipped to tackle criminality on that scale.

    It's a part of what Rochdale was talking about in his header yesterday.

    The BBC deserve some credit for consistently investigating and leading on this story.
    Yes, very unfair to leave it to trading standards, and attempting to beef up local trading standards to deal with international organised crime is madness. It should be led by a national police agency against organised crime.
    Or beef up Trading Standards - black suited ninjas with automatic weapons…
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 5,208

    Why do I feel like the Ukraine war is going to go on forever. Another month and it just goes on and on

    Because it is.

    The Ukrainians have successfully implemented the Falkenhayn strategy (didn’t work for Falkenhayn) - a meat grinder for the enemy.

    It’s the scene from the film Runaway, running thousands of times a day.
    Falkenhayn's strategy might have worked if the French hadn't had the British (plus Aussies, Kiwis and Canadians) to take the slack. As it was the mutinies in the French ranks in 1917 were pretty serious stuff.
    Falkenhayn's strategy did by and large work. It allowed the Germans to concentrate on the Eastern Front and eliminate Russia from WW1 in 1917.

    It was only the very belated entry of the USA into the war (an unreliable ally then, as now), prompted mainly by a failed German gamble on unrestricted U boat warfare, which subsequently turned the tables when their numbers started to count from mid 1918.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 13,449

    Pulpstar said:

    Only prosperous (By gdp per cap north of 50k) with a birth rate over 2 is err

    Saudi Arabia !

    https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/children-per-woman-fertility-rate-vs-level-of-prosperity

    Israel is the interesting standout, in being a wealthy country with a high birth rate, but that doesn't have its wealth boosted by resource exports. GDP per capita $44k and birth rate 2.83.
    Believe Israel’s birth rate varies widely between the extremist communities and the most mainstream
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 22,866
    Nigelb said:

    This story on the bbc about organised crime targeting trading standards officers with persistent violence and intimidation confirms we really do need to get a grip on crime.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdxplq92rx1o

    Not just token headlines like stiffer sentences but real investment (and process improvements) in courts, prisons and rehabilitation.

    The police have effectively disclaimed responsibility for the widespread crime on taking place in the mini-marts, vape shops etc on the high streets of towns across the UK, and left policing it to trading standards - who clearly aren't equipped to tackle criminality on that scale.

    It's a part of what Rochdale was talking about in his header yesterday.

    The BBC deserve some credit for consistently investigating and leading on this story.
    And trading standards is a responsibility of our local social care delivery organisations.

    Or 'councils' as we used to call them.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,526

    Why do I feel like the Ukraine war is going to go on forever. Another month and it just goes on and on

    Because it is.

    The Ukrainians have successfully implemented the Falkenhayn strategy (didn’t work for Falkenhayn) - a meat grinder for the enemy.

    It’s the scene from the film Runaway, running thousands of times a day.
    Falkenhayn's strategy might have worked if the French hadn't had the British (plus Aussies, Kiwis and Canadians) to take the slack. As it was the mutinies in the French ranks in 1917 were pretty serious stuff.
    Falkenhayn's strategy did by and large work. It allowed the Germans to concentrate on the Eastern Front and eliminate Russia from WW1 in 1917.

    It was only the very belated entry of the USA into the war (an unreliable ally then, as now), prompted mainly by a failed German gamble on unrestricted U boat warfare, which subsequently turned the tables when their numbers started to count from mid 1918.
    The biggest problem was that it was a race between the Germans and the Allies as to who ran out of soldiers first. On a fairly level technical level.

    When the Allies pulled clear with American manpower, munitions supply, aircraft and tanks in 1918, the Hundred Days was the result.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 26,268

    Jews, like all British citizens, should not have to hide their (my) identity to feel safe. This is a crisis.

    https://x.com/Peston/status/2049564448290181351?s=20

    Jewish News front page contained in that tweet. Not very happy to say the least.

    I've been trying to say this for two and a half years. People having to hide their racial and religious identity is the sign of a sick society. And we talk so much about diversity/antiracism/inclusion.
    The Home Secretary is giving another £25 million for protection measures for Jews. She is treating the symptoms rather than the causes. As someone has commented, it's like building ever higher walls for the chicken coop to keep out the foxes rather than tackling the foxes. The grim logic of the government's approach is to build a ghetto to keep Jews "safe". It is grotesque.

    Until politicians and Muslim leaders - always so quick to call out Islamophobia - call out the people who are expressing and spreading and inciting anti-Jewish hatred and violence, until they stop excusing or spreading it or supporting it or trying to justify it, nothing useful will happen

    And, frankly, it is long past the time for those politicians who seek the votes from the particular communities to have the courage to point out that some in this community are responsible for the growth in anti-semitism, as some courageous Muslim writers have pointed out.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/03/sorry-truth-virus-anti-semitism-has-infected-british-muslim-community

    and

    https://kenanmalik.com/2016/05/29/anti-semitism-and-the-left/

    Notice that these were written long before 2023. Why far too many forget, including on here, is that anti-semitism has long predated recent Middle Eastern events and that many people hate Israel because they hate Jews rather than the other way around.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,951
    edited April 30

    Nigelb said:

    This story on the bbc about organised crime targeting trading standards officers with persistent violence and intimidation confirms we really do need to get a grip on crime.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdxplq92rx1o

    Not just token headlines like stiffer sentences but real investment (and process improvements) in courts, prisons and rehabilitation.

    The police have effectively disclaimed responsibility for the widespread crime on taking place in the mini-marts, vape shops etc on the high streets of towns across the UK, and left policing it to trading standards - who clearly aren't equipped to tackle criminality on that scale.

    It's a part of what Rochdale was talking about in his header yesterday.

    The BBC deserve some credit for consistently investigating and leading on this story.
    Yes, very unfair to leave it to trading standards, and attempting to beef up local trading standards to deal with international organised crime is madness. It should be led by a national police agency against organised crime.
    Or beef up Trading Standards - black suited ninjas with automatic weapons…
    That would be the US approach, give Trading Standards some machine guns, armoured vehicles and rocket launchers, alongside 6 weeks training and a £30k salary. I am not quite sure it is a good idea, although it may well be a brave decision, minister.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 32,335
    Did this get covered? https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/apr/29/britain-royal-navy-russia-open-sea-border-europe

    The move to replace NATO gathers apace...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,526

    Nigelb said:

    This story on the bbc about organised crime targeting trading standards officers with persistent violence and intimidation confirms we really do need to get a grip on crime.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdxplq92rx1o

    Not just token headlines like stiffer sentences but real investment (and process improvements) in courts, prisons and rehabilitation.

    The police have effectively disclaimed responsibility for the widespread crime on taking place in the mini-marts, vape shops etc on the high streets of towns across the UK, and left policing it to trading standards - who clearly aren't equipped to tackle criminality on that scale.

    It's a part of what Rochdale was talking about in his header yesterday.

    The BBC deserve some credit for consistently investigating and leading on this story.
    Yes, very unfair to leave it to trading standards, and attempting to beef up local trading standards to deal with international organised crime is madness. It should be led by a national police agency against organised crime.
    Or beef up Trading Standards - black suited ninjas with automatic weapons…
    That would be the US approach, give Trading Standards some machine guns, armoured vehicles and rocket launchers, alongside 6 weeks training and a £30k salary. I am not quite sure it is a good idea, although it may well be a brave decision, minister.
    Well, under my UnDictatorship, school CCF and traffic wardens will have tactical nuclear weapons, so…

    Consider the fun moment when the lady above spins up Ol’ Painless on the thugs.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,567

    NEW THREAD

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,627
    Cyclefree said:

    Jews, like all British citizens, should not have to hide their (my) identity to feel safe. This is a crisis.

    https://x.com/Peston/status/2049564448290181351?s=20

    Jewish News front page contained in that tweet. Not very happy to say the least.

    I've been trying to say this for two and a half years. People having to hide their racial and religious identity is the sign of a sick society. And we talk so much about diversity/antiracism/inclusion.
    The Home Secretary is giving another £25 million for protection measures for Jews. She is treating the symptoms rather than the causes. As someone has commented, it's like building ever higher walls for the chicken coop to keep out the foxes rather than tackling the foxes. The grim logic of the government's approach is to build a ghetto to keep Jews "safe". It is grotesque.

    Until politicians and Muslim leaders - always so quick to call out Islamophobia - call out the people who are expressing and spreading and inciting anti-Jewish hatred and violence, until they stop excusing or spreading it or supporting it or trying to justify it, nothing useful will happen

    And, frankly, it is long past the time for those politicians who seek the votes from the particular communities to have the courage to point out that some in this community are responsible for the growth in anti-semitism, as some courageous Muslim writers have pointed out.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/03/sorry-truth-virus-anti-semitism-has-infected-british-muslim-community

    and

    https://kenanmalik.com/2016/05/29/anti-semitism-and-the-left/

    Notice that these were written long before 2023. Why far too many forget, including on here, is that anti-semitism has long predated recent Middle Eastern events and that many people hate Israel because they hate Jews rather than the other way around.
    It'a curious to recall that a stance against anti-semitism in the Labour Party was one of the things which got Starmer the leadership.
  • Jews, like all British citizens, should not have to hide their (my) identity to feel safe. This is a crisis.

    https://x.com/Peston/status/2049564448290181351?s=20

    Jewish News front page contained in that tweet. Not very happy to say the least.

    I've been trying to say this for two and a half years. People having to hide their racial and religious identity is the sign of a sick society. And we talk so much about diversity/antiracism/inclusion.
    Entirely correct. But confronting the hideous anti-Semitism now infesting Britain means confronting British Muslims, a significant minority of whom have anti-Semitic views, and are now quite unafraid to express them

    Is the British establishment ready to have that very tough conversation?

    This is not to deny the Semitism elsewhere in Britain. We have our own nasty domestic variety. Just look at jezbollah Corbyn. But nor can we deny we have ALSO imported this vile bigotry from the Islamic world

    If we can’t do this I see no hope for Jews in Britain. In the end they will leave. Which is both shameful and tragic

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,627
    In dementia veritas...

    Trump: “I think Ukraine, militarily, they’re defeated. They had 159 ships. Every ship is underwater. Every one of their planes has been shot down.”

    Yes, he mixed up Iran and Ukraine. He really did

    https://x.com/P_Kallioniemi/status/2049581111890571499
  • MattWMattW Posts: 33,499

    Nigelb said:

    This story on the bbc about organised crime targeting trading standards officers with persistent violence and intimidation confirms we really do need to get a grip on crime.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdxplq92rx1o

    Not just token headlines like stiffer sentences but real investment (and process improvements) in courts, prisons and rehabilitation.

    The police have effectively disclaimed responsibility for the widespread crime on taking place in the mini-marts, vape shops etc on the high streets of towns across the UK, and left policing it to trading standards - who clearly aren't equipped to tackle criminality on that scale.

    It's a part of what Rochdale was talking about in his header yesterday.

    The BBC deserve some credit for consistently investigating and leading on this story.
    And trading standards is a responsibility of our local social care delivery organisations.

    Or 'councils' as we used to call them.
    Both police and trading standards were gutted by Osborne and Cameron. For trading standards it may have started earlier.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,428
    HYUFD said:

    Election expert Lord Hayward's predictions for next week's local elections...

    🔴 - 1,850 seats for Labour
    🔵 - 600 seats for Tories
    🟣 + 1,550 seats for Reform
    🟢 + 500 seats for Greens
    🟡 + 150 seats for Lib Dem Dems
    ⚪️ + 250 seats for independents

    https://x.com/ashcowburn/status/2049602121990013263?s=20

    Seems to me the story is

    - disaster for Labour
    - One more heave for reform
    - Disappointment for the greens
    - Who are the Lib Dems?
    - Kemi gets away with it because mediocre isn’t an interesting headline
    If you look at the total seats won, you get a different picture. LibDems will be looking good.

    600 losses is a terrible night for the Tories, not "mediocre".

    The Greens will not be disappointed with those numbers.
    The Conservatives would still win more seats than Labour next week though if Hayward's forecast is correct, the Tories may come behind Reform, the LDs and Greens on seats won but their terrible night would still be better than Labour's diabolical night
    Difference being, governments in mid term are *supposed* to have a terrible night, whereas the official opposition party is not.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,126
    Cyclefree said:

    Jews, like all British citizens, should not have to hide their (my) identity to feel safe. This is a crisis.

    https://x.com/Peston/status/2049564448290181351?s=20

    Jewish News front page contained in that tweet. Not very happy to say the least.

    I've been trying to say this for two and a half years. People having to hide their racial and religious identity is the sign of a sick society. And we talk so much about diversity/antiracism/inclusion.
    The Home Secretary is giving another £25 million for protection measures for Jews. She is treating the symptoms rather than the causes. As someone has commented, it's like building ever higher walls for the chicken coop to keep out the foxes rather than tackling the foxes. The grim logic of the government's approach is to build a ghetto to keep Jews "safe". It is grotesque.

    Until politicians and Muslim leaders - always so quick to call out Islamophobia - call out the people who are expressing and spreading and inciting anti-Jewish hatred and violence, until they stop excusing or spreading it or supporting it or trying to justify it, nothing useful will happen

    And, frankly, it is long past the time for those politicians who seek the votes from the particular communities to have the courage to point out that some in this community are responsible for the growth in anti-semitism, as some courageous Muslim writers have pointed out.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/03/sorry-truth-virus-anti-semitism-has-infected-british-muslim-community

    and

    https://kenanmalik.com/2016/05/29/anti-semitism-and-the-left/

    Notice that these were written long before 2023. Why far too many forget, including on here, is that anti-semitism has long predated recent Middle Eastern events and that many people hate Israel because they hate Jews rather than the other way around.
    This is labours approach all over

    An epidemic of stabbings. Tweak the design of the knife.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,428

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    IanB2 said:

    malcolmg said:

    For all the pensioner haters on here who whine about them not paying tax.

    The number of taxpayers of pension age increased by 1.02 million or 14.4% since the previous tax year, as the triple lock continues to push retirement incomes up.

    This means people of state pension age account for 22.2% of all taxpayers and 16.2% of total income.

    There were almost 8.2 million people of state pension age paying tax and 7.8 million people paying tax whose main source of income was their pension, the research shows.

    Griffin added: “While part of this increase reflects demographic change as the pension‑age population grows, rising retirement incomes combined with frozen allowances are clearly playing a major role.

    "The triple lock has been vital in protecting pensioner incomes during a period of high inflation, but its interaction with frozen personal allowances is creating unintended consequences. In practice, state pension increases designed to preserve living standards are increasingly being clawed back through tax, particularly where even modest private pension income is involved.”

    Thanks for confirming they are richer than ever. Which begs the question why do the rest of us have to hand over an ever increasing share of GDP to them?

    That's what I thought, too. Malc is making the same mistake as those who quote the statistic that the rich pay some high proportion of all our taxes, thinking this indicates some sort of merit whereas in reality it simply illustrates that the rich are getting most of the money in the first place.
    Nobody mentioned the rich and majority of pensioners are far from rich. Most will be paying tax on income under 20K which you probably spend on a holiday
    So how about we give all the future pension rises for say the next 10 years from those pensioners with income over 50k to those under 25k?

    I'd be fine with that and keeping the triple lock for that period.
    I paid for over 50 years for my state pension , not so it could all go to lazy barstewards who would whoop it up and live off my hard graft. Time people in this country learned that you are entitled to nothing you do not earn through your own endeavours. Apart from disabled people who may not be able to work , the rest should be encouraged by much less largesse to get off their butts and look after themselves rather than us importing people to do the jobs they don't fancy.
    Nope. You paid for 50 yars to pay for the pensions of those who were receiving state pension during those years. The NI contributions have never been about 'saving' for your own pension. That was made explicitly clear when the system was set up. You pay for those who are currently retired and the social contract is that when it is your turn to retire the current workforce pays for you. It isa system built on the basic hope that there will be enough people working at any given time to pay for the pensions of all those who have retired.

    Not that I disagree with you entirely. For those of working age who won't work, benefits should be an absolute minimum safety net and nothing more.
    Richard, I don't hold with that old chestnut. They never announced state pensions by saying eveybody will pay now for previous workers pensions. It has been mismanagement by politicians using the cash and then pushing that lie. Other countries actually keep their pension funds to be used for pensions. Agree on benefits , far too easy to get , ever increasing amounts and are now a lifestyle / career rather than a safety net and in many many instances a far better career than people who work all their lives.
    Wrong I am afraid. Both in the 1942 Beveridge report and in the 1946 National Insurance Act it was explicit that current contributions would be paying for current pensioners. Attlee and his ministers also made it very clear at the time. It was the only way the system could work at that time given the state of post war finances.
    More obviously - had state pensions been fund-supported at the outset, it wouldn't have been until the 1980s that anyone would have received a full state pension.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 33,499

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5yxley0pp5o

    Concerning and rather strange story about the police lying

    That's an astonishing story. Note that it starts with this:
    On 13 March 2021, Buzzard-Quashie was arrested at her home in Ealing, west London, on suspicion of sending malicious communications after posting on Instagram some racist messages she had received from former acquaintances.
    And then it escalates to an extraordinary degree.
    You would have thought that a Chief Constable committing Contempt of Court would be an act of gross misconduct, and Misconduct in Public Office
    Ooof. It's misinformation, and process going mad or unchecked, perhaps with maliciousness.

    Such is not unknown. Two examples known to me are a few Trans Activists using the complaints and reporting system as a way of effectively turning the police into an outsourced harassment subcontractor. Another was pressure in the noughties on solicitors challenging Chief Constable discretion to leave unconfirmed information to appear on enhanced DBS entries, or iirc challenging charges under Operation Ore.

    I have seen even simple things like Council noise complaints systems used to harass neighbours, if a Council does not have a decent checks and balances setup.

    In witness statements prepared for the courts, Chief Constable Balhatchet insisted all of the body-worn video had been released to her or deleted.

    But eventually her lawyers obtained audit logs revealing such claims to be false - not only were there more videos, but they had been accessed by the police dozens of times.

    "It became apparent they were watching the body-worn video, then days later making sworn witness statements saying it doesn't exist," says Buzzard-Quashie.

    The revelations prompted the police to release more recordings in November.

    Balhatchet admitted contempt of court and apologised in person to the Court of Appeal for the "appalling failures" of his force, which Lord Justice Fraser described as "wilfully disobedient".

    He was ordered to pay a £50,000 fine and to date, more than £250,000 in legal costs.

    "People need to know that when you sign a statement to the civil courts, it's got to be true to the best of your knowledge," says Buzzard-Quashie's solicitor Marc Livingston.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 13,449

    I just walked by a road sign to a village called ST AGNANT

    An estate agent once tried to sell me a house in St Reatham.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 28,766

    I just walked by a road sign to a village called ST AGNANT

    An estate agent once tried to sell me a house in St Reatham.
    Staines. St Annes.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 58,890

    Why do I feel like the Ukraine war is going to go on forever. Another month and it just goes on and on

    Neither side has a strategic advantage, it will continue until one side has, or the other can't take it any more.
    Sandpit said:

    Ukraine news 1:

    Perm is still on fire, new explosions overnight at the refinery and pumping station site.

    https://x.com/gerashchenko_en/status/2049759633808474304

    Ukraine news 2:

    Two Russian patrol boats were taken out near the Kerch Bridge.

    https://x.com/defenceu/status/2049735936490041780

    Instead of asking NATO perhaps Trump should have asked Ukraine to clear the Straits.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 33,499
    Interesting.

    An automated "which Govt subsidies are you entitled to" call from a realistic sounding AI (RP, Southern English - like Angela Rippon), that did not go off script to be a clear computer for some time - when I refused to supply personal information ("Can you confirm how to spell your surname?", "You should have that already; I don't give personal data to cold callers".)
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 20,949
    MattW said:

    Interesting.

    An automated "which Govt subsidies are you entitled to" call from a realistic sounding AI (RP, Southern English - like Angela Rippon), that did not go off script to be a clear computer for some time - when I refused to supply personal information ("Can you confirm how to spell your surname?", "You should have that already; I don't give personal data to cold callers".)

    YouTube is full of AI generated celebrities (e.g. Farage) promoting a financial scam. YouTube, like much big tech, seem poor at doing anything about these. I wonder if the celebrities whose likenesses are being abused will get some action.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 46,466
    edited April 30

    malcolmg said:



    The commentator is far from daft and knows very well how it is funded, how politicians squander it rather than having a proper fund. You have to be stupid if you do not know that currently paying NI for 35 years or sponging off the state for same period entitles you to a state pension. There are no restrictions on your financial position regarding getting the state pension you are entitled to, suggest you go read the gov website on the topic if you are confused.
    You also seem to be very confused as when in receipt of said state pension the rules are you do not pay further NI after receiving your entitled pension at age 67.
    Fact that you are an envious greedy git that does not like paying NI is neither here nor there.
    I suggest you get a life , stop being envious of 67 year olds and save for when you get there, if you are that lucky.

    I don't disagree with the substance of your point, but why are you the only regular poster who indulges in unnecessary personal abuse at other posters? You can make exactly the same points without being permanently grumpy. If I want to read about other people being envious greedy gits I'll go to X.
    don't be such a wimp Nick, you obviously have never interacted with Scottish people if you consider my light banter as abuse. Lighten up.

    PS I am happy as a sandboy
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 46,466

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    IanB2 said:

    malcolmg said:

    For all the pensioner haters on here who whine about them not paying tax.

    The number of taxpayers of pension age increased by 1.02 million or 14.4% since the previous tax year, as the triple lock continues to push retirement incomes up.

    This means people of state pension age account for 22.2% of all taxpayers and 16.2% of total income.

    There were almost 8.2 million people of state pension age paying tax and 7.8 million people paying tax whose main source of income was their pension, the research shows.

    Griffin added: “While part of this increase reflects demographic change as the pension‑age population grows, rising retirement incomes combined with frozen allowances are clearly playing a major role.

    "The triple lock has been vital in protecting pensioner incomes during a period of high inflation, but its interaction with frozen personal allowances is creating unintended consequences. In practice, state pension increases designed to preserve living standards are increasingly being clawed back through tax, particularly where even modest private pension income is involved.”

    Thanks for confirming they are richer than ever. Which begs the question why do the rest of us have to hand over an ever increasing share of GDP to them?

    That's what I thought, too. Malc is making the same mistake as those who quote the statistic that the rich pay some high proportion of all our taxes, thinking this indicates some sort of merit whereas in reality it simply illustrates that the rich are getting most of the money in the first place.
    Nobody mentioned the rich and majority of pensioners are far from rich. Most will be paying tax on income under 20K which you probably spend on a holiday
    So how about we give all the future pension rises for say the next 10 years from those pensioners with income over 50k to those under 25k?

    I'd be fine with that and keeping the triple lock for that period.
    I paid for over 50 years for my state pension , not so it could all go to lazy barstewards who would whoop it up and live off my hard graft. Time people in this country learned that you are entitled to nothing you do not earn through your own endeavours. Apart from disabled people who may not be able to work , the rest should be encouraged by much less largesse to get off their butts and look after themselves rather than us importing people to do the jobs they don't fancy.
    You didn't. You paid 50 years because 1) it was the law 2) for your parents and grandparents state pensions.

    Hopefully you will at least stop using the pensioners who are far from rich as a shield in this argument as you clearly think them worthy of your contempt.
    I am always amazed that relatively intelligent people don’t understand how and who funds the state pension. I am guessing the commentator isn’t daft. But, if he doesn’t get it or chooses to actively misrepresent it, or it his “vibes” make him believe that he has paid for his state pension what chance has anyone in convincing the block vote of pensioners of the need to do meaningful reform to stop the daft ratchet of the triple lock.

    For what it is worth any whinge about pensioners paying tax annoys me while they continue to be protected from NI.

    There is the same challenge with adult social care and NHS spending. More folks are placing greater demands, but there are fewer healthy working age people able to prop it up.
    The commentator is far from daft and knows very well how it is funded, how politicians squander it rather than having a proper fund. You have to be stupid if you do not know that currently paying NI for 35 years or sponging off the state for same period entitles you to a state pension. There are no restrictions on your financial position regarding getting the state pension you are entitled to, suggest you go read the gov website on the topic if you are confused.
    You also seem to be very confused as when in receipt of said state pension the rules are you do not pay further NI after receiving your entitled pension at age 67.
    Fact that you are an envious greedy git that does not like paying NI is neither here nor there.
    I suggest you get a life , stop being envious of 67 year olds and save for when you get there, if you are that lucky.
    As ever a charming response from a clearly a charming person. I thought I was relatively respectful of you. If you know how it is funded, why do every time you write about it does it seem that like you don’t?

    And my point wasn’t really about you it is about how the UK has a sensible debate about how the state funds retirement (and ill health that ensues) adequately, while ensuring the working age population also can be productive and actually have some take home pay to save their own retirement.

    But you actively misrepresented that point. Ultimately more money is being spent on the oldest in society - health is the biggest component of central government expenditure the next biggest item is pensions. If you look at council spending - i.e. what council tax funds - vast majority of that budget will go on adult social care. All those numbers are going up year-on-year. My question is what do you do about that? Get more taxpayers in to prop up the oldest? Cut all other spending back to nothing (working age and child benefits are significant lower than the pension bill)? Or something else?
    seem to be a lot of prim and proper folks on here who don't like vigourous debate. No offence was meant Mr Lurker but I eschew using flowerly , wimpy language.
    I have often stated what I think should happen, all government spending should be cut by 10% immediately and a proper review of all the waste and disjointed overlapping services that fail people, get organised properly and that we stop hearing "lessons will be learned " and people are held responsible for the shit service they give the public for the money they take off them.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 43,516
    BREAKING: The PM will address the nation from Downing Street in the next few minutes
This discussion has been closed.