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A 5% return in just over a week? (and potentially 40% in over a week?) – politicalbetting.com

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  • TazTaz Posts: 28,124

    Taz said:

    Dopermean said:

    Farage "gifted" £5m by Harbonne to stand in Clacton.
    Guarfian

    Typical press.

    That’s a Telegraph story they’re just cutting n pasting.

    Anything illegal here ?
    I hope nobody in Reform has ever bitched and moaned about large political donations.

    That wouldn't be illegal either. But still politiclly toxic.
    I’m sure, like all political parties, they will have been vociferous in their opposition. Until they’re on the receiving end of someone’s largesse.

    Then it’s fine.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,858

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The line of Succession

    SOVEREIGN

    1. The Prince of Wales

    2. Prince George of Wales

    3. Princess Charlotte of Wales

    4. Prince Louis of Wales

    5. The Duke of Sussex

    6. Prince Archie of Sussex

    7. Princess Lilibet of Sussex

    8. Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor

    Parasites all.
    All descended from the Scottish Stuarts and Bowes Lyons
    Aye, and they were all parasites too,
    They weren't, they were funded by their estate profits not taxes unlike politicians
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,124
    Foss said:

    Former Tribune editor and Northerner on the Jacob's comments the other day about how the NE is about to fall completely to Reform.

    Alex Niven
    @Alex_Niven
    ·
    1h
    All pretty much accurate. Sure, ‘Red Wall’ discourse is paltry, reductive, bad-faith &c but we’re heading for massive chunks of the postindustrial North/Midlands/South becoming Reform super-heartlands & frighteningly little discussion on the left about how to deal with this

    https://x.com/Alex_Niven/status/2049405797042393169

    Does it count if it's outside the M25?
    Not to those in authority.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,361

    Javier Blas
    @JavierBlas

    We thought we were getting a TACO

    "Trump Always Chickens Out"

    But so far we are getting a NACHO

    "Not A Chance Hormuz Opens"

    (With appreciation to the trader who told me)

    https://x.com/JavierBlas/status/2049391155431825685
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,526
    Dopermean said:

    FPT:
    MarqueeMark said:

    Another 1,180 Russian troops and 54 artillery systems unavaible to parade in Red Square as of yesterday.

    On another victory parade metric, the Russian soldiers lost in Ukraine in April alone - 31,150 with two days to go - if they were in groups of 10 x 10, would compromise 311 such "squares". They would take some 45 minutes to march past Putin...

    If they were White Walkers.

    Trouble is, if you lost 25 million countrymen during the Great Patriotic War, losing tens of thousands now is merely unfortunate.
    The Great Patriotic War was not a war of choice - it was an existential threat from the Nazis.

    Despite trying to brand it as such, it is widely understood within Russia that the Ukraine SMO was Putin's own land-grab. The better parallel is with Afghanistan, where far, far fewer casualties ground down any support for that adventure.

    And this one is trashing the Russian economy as Ukraine has fought dirty - by blowing up Russia as a gas station.
    The Russian birth rate is something like 100k a month.

    If they are losing 30k troops a month, that’s about half the number of male children born.

    And they are already in a demographic crisis.
    It iwll be 34,000 this month. Which is 2/3rds of male births.
    But they're not just sending Russians
    Putin won't stop the war because of a lack of troops to sacrifice, killing Russian troops, while necessary, won't help with post conflict relations.
    Why?

    It’s a curious fact of human psychology that there is little or no resentment between nations for the slaughters on the battlefield.

    After both World wars, everyone rapidly forgot about the epic death rate - there was even a low rate of prosecution for the hideous genocides committed in WWII.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,771
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The line of Succession

    SOVEREIGN

    1. The Prince of Wales

    2. Prince George of Wales

    3. Princess Charlotte of Wales

    4. Prince Louis of Wales

    5. The Duke of Sussex

    6. Prince Archie of Sussex

    7. Princess Lilibet of Sussex

    8. Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor

    And I'm supposed to believe that this is God's will? Whereas God didn't bother to let us know his opinion about say global warming or the second world war?
    Neither of those were in the Bible, God anointing Kings like David and Solomon was
    God doesn't exist!
    He does for all eternity
    You're
    Brainwashed!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,526
    Dopermean said:

    FPT:
    MarqueeMark said:

    Another 1,180 Russian troops and 54 artillery systems unavaible to parade in Red Square as of yesterday.

    On another victory parade metric, the Russian soldiers lost in Ukraine in April alone - 31,150 with two days to go - if they were in groups of 10 x 10, would compromise 311 such "squares". They would take some 45 minutes to march past Putin...

    If they were White Walkers.

    Trouble is, if you lost 25 million countrymen during the Great Patriotic War, losing tens of thousands now is merely unfortunate.
    The Great Patriotic War was not a war of choice - it was an existential threat from the Nazis.

    Despite trying to brand it as such, it is widely understood within Russia that the Ukraine SMO was Putin's own land-grab. The better parallel is with Afghanistan, where far, far fewer casualties ground down any support for that adventure.

    And this one is trashing the Russian economy as Ukraine has fought dirty - by blowing up Russia as a gas station.
    The Russian birth rate is something like 100k a month.

    If they are losing 30k troops a month, that’s about half the number of male children born.

    And they are already in a demographic crisis.
    It iwll be 34,000 this month. Which is 2/3rds of male births.
    But they're not just sending Russians
    Putin won't stop the war because of a lack of troops to sacrifice, killing Russian troops, while necessary, won't help with post conflict relations.
    Why?

    It’s a curious fact of human psychology that there is little or no resentment between nations for the slaughters on the battlefield.

    After both World wars, everyone rapidly forgot about the epic death rate - there was even a low rate of prosecution for the hideous genocides committed in WWII.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,566
    edited April 29
    Pulpstar said:

    Off topic, I note the Prem was extended to end at the end of May in 2008/9.

    FA Cup should be after the last Prem match tbh

    I agree but it’s UEFA’s fault.

    Plus they need to keep Wembley free for the play off finals.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 8,260

    Dopermean said:

    FPT:
    MarqueeMark said:

    Another 1,180 Russian troops and 54 artillery systems unavaible to parade in Red Square as of yesterday.

    On another victory parade metric, the Russian soldiers lost in Ukraine in April alone - 31,150 with two days to go - if they were in groups of 10 x 10, would compromise 311 such "squares". They would take some 45 minutes to march past Putin...

    If they were White Walkers.

    Trouble is, if you lost 25 million countrymen during the Great Patriotic War, losing tens of thousands now is merely unfortunate.
    The Great Patriotic War was not a war of choice - it was an existential threat from the Nazis.

    Despite trying to brand it as such, it is widely understood within Russia that the Ukraine SMO was Putin's own land-grab. The better parallel is with Afghanistan, where far, far fewer casualties ground down any support for that adventure.

    And this one is trashing the Russian economy as Ukraine has fought dirty - by blowing up Russia as a gas station.
    The Russian birth rate is something like 100k a month.

    If they are losing 30k troops a month, that’s about half the number of male children born.

    And they are already in a demographic crisis.
    It iwll be 34,000 this month. Which is 2/3rds of male births.
    But they're not just sending Russians
    Putin won't stop the war because of a lack of troops to sacrifice, killing Russian troops, while necessary, won't help with post conflict relations.
    Why?

    It’s a curious fact of human psychology that there is little or no resentment between nations for the slaughters on the battlefield.

    After both World wars, everyone rapidly forgot about the epic death rate - there was even a low rate of prosecution for the hideous genocides committed in WWII.
    Plenty of people of my parents' generation were racist towards Germans and Japanese for quite a long time.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,361
    Mid-term betting latest:


    Patrick De Haan
    @GasBuddyGuy

    getting chills thinking this but I rarely if ever do I see wholesale gasoline prices doing what they’ve done for the Great Lakes states in the last week- MI, IN, IL, WI- retailers for the second day are getting absolutely obliterated. Expect the jump soon. Likely in ~12hrs.

    https://x.com/GasBuddyGuy/status/2049345917761786147
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,124
    edited April 29


    Javier Blas
    @JavierBlas

    We thought we were getting a TACO

    "Trump Always Chickens Out"

    But so far we are getting a NACHO

    "Not A Chance Hormuz Opens"

    (With appreciation to the trader who told me)

    https://x.com/JavierBlas/status/2049391155431825685


    😉.


    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5529057#Comment_5529057
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,526

    Dopermean said:

    FPT:
    MarqueeMark said:

    Another 1,180 Russian troops and 54 artillery systems unavaible to parade in Red Square as of yesterday.

    On another victory parade metric, the Russian soldiers lost in Ukraine in April alone - 31,150 with two days to go - if they were in groups of 10 x 10, would compromise 311 such "squares". They would take some 45 minutes to march past Putin...

    If they were White Walkers.

    Trouble is, if you lost 25 million countrymen during the Great Patriotic War, losing tens of thousands now is merely unfortunate.
    The Great Patriotic War was not a war of choice - it was an existential threat from the Nazis.

    Despite trying to brand it as such, it is widely understood within Russia that the Ukraine SMO was Putin's own land-grab. The better parallel is with Afghanistan, where far, far fewer casualties ground down any support for that adventure.

    And this one is trashing the Russian economy as Ukraine has fought dirty - by blowing up Russia as a gas station.
    The Russian birth rate is something like 100k a month.

    If they are losing 30k troops a month, that’s about half the number of male children born.

    And they are already in a demographic crisis.
    It iwll be 34,000 this month. Which is 2/3rds of male births.
    But they're not just sending Russians
    Putin won't stop the war because of a lack of troops to sacrifice, killing Russian troops, while necessary, won't help with post conflict relations.
    Why?

    It’s a curious fact of human psychology that there is little or no resentment between nations for the slaughters on the battlefield.

    After both World wars, everyone rapidly forgot about the epic death rate - there was even a low rate of prosecution for the hideous genocides committed in WWII.
    Plenty of people of my parents' generation were racist towards Germans and Japanese for quite a long time.
    For the disgusting behaviour I mentioned.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 25,449

    Former Tribune editor and Northerner on the Jacob's comments the other day about how the NE is about to fall completely to Reform.

    Alex Niven
    @Alex_Niven
    ·
    1h
    All pretty much accurate. Sure, ‘Red Wall’ discourse is paltry, reductive, bad-faith &c but we’re heading for massive chunks of the postindustrial North/Midlands/South becoming Reform super-heartlands & frighteningly little discussion on the left about how to deal with this

    https://x.com/Alex_Niven/status/2049405797042393169

    Don't forget the sectarian heartlands we are seeing in former mill towns.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,196

    Dopermean said:

    FPT:
    MarqueeMark said:

    Another 1,180 Russian troops and 54 artillery systems unavaible to parade in Red Square as of yesterday.

    On another victory parade metric, the Russian soldiers lost in Ukraine in April alone - 31,150 with two days to go - if they were in groups of 10 x 10, would compromise 311 such "squares". They would take some 45 minutes to march past Putin...

    If they were White Walkers.

    Trouble is, if you lost 25 million countrymen during the Great Patriotic War, losing tens of thousands now is merely unfortunate.
    The Great Patriotic War was not a war of choice - it was an existential threat from the Nazis.

    Despite trying to brand it as such, it is widely understood within Russia that the Ukraine SMO was Putin's own land-grab. The better parallel is with Afghanistan, where far, far fewer casualties ground down any support for that adventure.

    And this one is trashing the Russian economy as Ukraine has fought dirty - by blowing up Russia as a gas station.
    The Russian birth rate is something like 100k a month.

    If they are losing 30k troops a month, that’s about half the number of male children born.

    And they are already in a demographic crisis.
    It iwll be 34,000 this month. Which is 2/3rds of male births.
    But they're not just sending Russians
    Putin won't stop the war because of a lack of troops to sacrifice, killing Russian troops, while necessary, won't help with post conflict relations.
    Why?

    It’s a curious fact of human psychology that there is little or no resentment between nations for the slaughters on the battlefield.

    After both World wars, everyone rapidly forgot about the epic death rate - there was even a low rate of prosecution for the hideous genocides committed in WWII.
    Plenty of people of my parents' generation were racist towards Germans and Japanese for quite a long time.
    One of the trains my Grandad went into colonial service was to take my grandmother (Austrian Jewish prewar refugee) out of Britain and away from that ill-feeling.

    They returned in ~1990 when everything was very different.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,858
    NEW: Reform UK overtake Plaid Cymru in Wales, Senedd Voting Intention:

    ➡️ REF: 30%
    🟩 PLC: 28%
    🌹 LAB: 15%
    🌳 CON: 10%
    🌍 GRN: 10%

    Via
    @Survation
    , 29th April

    https://x.com/GBPolitcs/status/2049402140880183360?s=20
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,687

    Pulpstar said:

    Off topic, I note the Prem was extended to end at the end of May in 2008/9.

    FA Cup should be after the last Prem match tbh

    I agree but it’s UEFA’s fault.

    Plus they need to keep Wembley free for the play off finals.
    Prem League effed-up Boxing Day this season too, which lost a week of matches; and the national teams all want their players free about a fortnight ago so they can prepare for the World Cup.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,858
    Latest voting intention. Very small changes indeed as Reform lead goes to 6 over the Tories.

    ➡️ REF UK 27% (nc)
    🌳 CON 21% (-1)
    🌹 LAB 20% (nc)
    🌍 GREEN 13% (+1)
    🔶 LIB DEM 11% (nc)
    ❓OTH 3% (-2)
    🟡 SNP 3% (nc)


    https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/2049390140980691016?s=20
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,361
    HYUFD said:

    Latest voting intention. Very small changes indeed as Reform lead goes to 6 over the Tories.

    ➡️ REF UK 27% (nc)
    🌳 CON 21% (-1)
    🌹 LAB 20% (nc)
    🌍 GREEN 13% (+1)
    🔶 LIB DEM 11% (nc)
    ❓OTH 3% (-2)
    🟡 SNP 3% (nc)


    https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/2049390140980691016?s=20


    Oh Jeremy Corbyn...
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 25,449
    HYUFD said:

    Latest voting intention. Very small changes indeed as Reform lead goes to 6 over the Tories.

    ➡️ REF UK 27% (nc)
    🌳 CON 21% (-1)
    🌹 LAB 20% (nc)
    🌍 GREEN 13% (+1)
    🔶 LIB DEM 11% (nc)
    ❓OTH 3% (-2)
    🟡 SNP 3% (nc)


    https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/2049390140980691016?s=20

    The Reform decline appears to have been arrested, with increased vote share in some recent polls.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,361

    Former Tribune editor and Northerner on the Jacob's comments the other day about how the NE is about to fall completely to Reform.

    Alex Niven
    @Alex_Niven
    ·
    1h
    All pretty much accurate. Sure, ‘Red Wall’ discourse is paltry, reductive, bad-faith &c but we’re heading for massive chunks of the postindustrial North/Midlands/South becoming Reform super-heartlands & frighteningly little discussion on the left about how to deal with this

    https://x.com/Alex_Niven/status/2049405797042393169

    Don't forget the sectarian heartlands we are seeing in former mill towns.
    Labour being eaten from all directions.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,858
    @LeftieStats
    🗳️ NEW | Tower Hamlets Council MRP estimate:

    🟧 Aspire: 36% (+1)
    🟢 Green: 27% (+17)
    🔴 Labour: 19% (-16)

    Via
    @JLPartnersPolls
    , 17-27 April
    ---
    (+/- vs 2022)

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/2049209535961980973?s=20
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,124

    HYUFD said:

    Latest voting intention. Very small changes indeed as Reform lead goes to 6 over the Tories.

    ➡️ REF UK 27% (nc)
    🌳 CON 21% (-1)
    🌹 LAB 20% (nc)
    🌍 GREEN 13% (+1)
    🔶 LIB DEM 11% (nc)
    ❓OTH 3% (-2)
    🟡 SNP 3% (nc)


    https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/2049390140980691016?s=20


    Oh Jeremy Corbyn...
    Surely YourParty are now with Nana and the Angles. Dead as the Giant Auk and the Dodo.
  • Hopefully Starmer’s last PMQs.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 37,421
    edited April 29

    Dopermean said:

    FPT:
    MarqueeMark said:

    Another 1,180 Russian troops and 54 artillery systems unavaible to parade in Red Square as of yesterday.

    On another victory parade metric, the Russian soldiers lost in Ukraine in April alone - 31,150 with two days to go - if they were in groups of 10 x 10, would compromise 311 such "squares". They would take some 45 minutes to march past Putin...

    If they were White Walkers.

    Trouble is, if you lost 25 million countrymen during the Great Patriotic War, losing tens of thousands now is merely unfortunate.
    The Great Patriotic War was not a war of choice - it was an existential threat from the Nazis.

    Despite trying to brand it as such, it is widely understood within Russia that the Ukraine SMO was Putin's own land-grab. The better parallel is with Afghanistan, where far, far fewer casualties ground down any support for that adventure.

    And this one is trashing the Russian economy as Ukraine has fought dirty - by blowing up Russia as a gas station.
    The Russian birth rate is something like 100k a month.

    If they are losing 30k troops a month, that’s about half the number of male children born.

    And they are already in a demographic crisis.
    It iwll be 34,000 this month. Which is 2/3rds of male births.
    But they're not just sending Russians
    Putin won't stop the war because of a lack of troops to sacrifice, killing Russian troops, while necessary, won't help with post conflict relations.
    Why?

    It’s a curious fact of human psychology that there is little or no resentment between nations for the slaughters on the battlefield.

    After both World wars, everyone rapidly forgot about the epic death rate - there was even a low rate of prosecution for the hideous genocides committed in WWII.
    Plenty of people of my parents' generation were racist towards Germans and Japanese for quite a long time.
    It wasn't so much the Germans; I did German O level in the early/mid 50's and the class was full.

    However there was a LOT of ill-feeling towards the Japanese especially as a result the treatment of PoW's.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,858
    HYUFD said:

    NEW: Reform UK overtake Plaid Cymru in Wales, Senedd Voting Intention:

    ➡️ REF: 30%
    🟩 PLC: 28%
    🌹 LAB: 15%
    🌳 CON: 10%
    🌍 GRN: 10%

    Via
    @Survation
    , 29th April

    https://x.com/GBPolitcs/status/2049402140880183360?s=20

    'Plaid is strongest among younger voters (40%), those in North Wales (31%), those who speak Welsh fluently (52%), and people expressing a strong Welsh national identity (43%). Meanwhile Reform is strongest among male voters (34%), those aged over 65 (37%), and in Mid and West Wales (34%).'

    https://x.com/Survation/status/2049426514165268569?s=20
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,361
    Matthew Butcher
    @matthewtbutcher

    Some context for next week's elections from a Green Party perspective.

    At the last London council elections they won just 1% of the seats. They've never won a seat in the Senedd before.

    +241 seats is a record gain, and that was in 2023 when 2x more seats up for election.

    Matthew Butcher
    @matthewtbutcher

    I'd expect a good night for the Greens - but the base is surprisingly low, and the swings needed are often huge.

    https://x.com/matthewtbutcher/status/2049409951907319958
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 15,630
    Dopermean said:

    FPT:
    MarqueeMark said:

    Another 1,180 Russian troops and 54 artillery systems unavaible to parade in Red Square as of yesterday.

    On another victory parade metric, the Russian soldiers lost in Ukraine in April alone - 31,150 with two days to go - if they were in groups of 10 x 10, would compromise 311 such "squares". They would take some 45 minutes to march past Putin...

    If they were White Walkers.

    Trouble is, if you lost 25 million countrymen during the Great Patriotic War, losing tens of thousands now is merely unfortunate.
    The Great Patriotic War was not a war of choice - it was an existential threat from the Nazis.

    Despite trying to brand it as such, it is widely understood within Russia that the Ukraine SMO was Putin's own land-grab. The better parallel is with Afghanistan, where far, far fewer casualties ground down any support for that adventure.

    And this one is trashing the Russian economy as Ukraine has fought dirty - by blowing up Russia as a gas station.
    The Russian birth rate is something like 100k a month.

    If they are losing 30k troops a month, that’s about half the number of male children born.

    And they are already in a demographic crisis.
    It iwll be 34,000 this month. Which is 2/3rds of male births.
    But they're not just sending Russians
    Putin won't stop the war because of a lack of troops to sacrifice, killing Russian troops, while necessary, won't help with post conflict relations.
    It's hard to say because the numbers of KIAs/casualties claimed by both sides are obviously fucking nonsense concocted for the consumption of credulous dickheads. The 14th Mech Brigade CinC recently got fired (and locked up LOL) when his fraudulent claims went too far beyond the ambit of belief.

    There is no doubt that both sides are hurting for manpower. I recently went to the Russian Consulate in Berlin to get my VNG (residence permit) transferred to my new passport and they even had fucking recruitment posters in there just in case any Russian expats in Berlin fancied swapping the Ku'damm for the zero line in Konstantinovka. In Ukraine the busifikatsya bounty for TCC agents kidnapping randos off the street for the army is now up to 8,000 UAH per head. That is a LOT of fucking money in Ukraine.

    The number one thng SKS, Macron, Merz, etc. could do to help Ukraine in a very material and rapid way would be to round up the Ukrainian conscription evaders and send them back but it's never even contemplated.
  • FossFoss Posts: 2,726
    HYUFD said:

    @LeftieStats
    🗳️ NEW | Tower Hamlets Council MRP estimate:

    🟧 Aspire: 36% (+1)
    🟢 Green: 27% (+17)
    🔴 Labour: 19% (-16)

    Via
    @JLPartnersPolls
    , 17-27 April
    ---
    (+/- vs 2022)

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/2049209535961980973?s=20

    With (probable) back to back council wins, Aspire must be in with a shot at an MP at the next election - if they decide they want to go that route.
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,536
    Starmer is livid about the privileges committee vote - attacked both Kemi and Davey for the "stunt"
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 81,143
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    NEW: Reform UK overtake Plaid Cymru in Wales, Senedd Voting Intention:

    ➡️ REF: 30%
    🟩 PLC: 28%
    🌹 LAB: 15%
    🌳 CON: 10%
    🌍 GRN: 10%

    Via
    @Survation
    , 29th April

    https://x.com/GBPolitcs/status/2049402140880183360?s=20

    'Plaid is strongest among younger voters (40%), those in North Wales (31%), those who speak Welsh fluently (52%), and people expressing a strong Welsh national identity (43%). Meanwhile Reform is strongest among male voters (34%), those aged over 65 (37%), and in Mid and West Wales (34%).'

    https://x.com/Survation/status/2049426514165268569?s=20
    Labour like Spurs in the title race.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 61,132

    Starmer is livid about the privileges committee vote - attacked both Kemi and Davey for the "stunt"

    No different from the games Starmer played while in opposition.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,190

    Pulpstar said:

    Off topic, I note the Prem was extended to end at the end of May in 2008/9.

    FA Cup should be after the last Prem match tbh

    I agree but it’s UEFA’s fault.

    Plus they need to keep Wembley free for the play off finals.
    Reduce the prem to 16 clubs, so only 30 fixtures. Finished BEFORE FA Cup final. Fewer games so players less tired. England wins the WC.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,190

    Starmer is livid about the privileges committee vote - attacked both Kemi and Davey for the "stunt"

    He would never have tried such a stunt as LOTO now would he.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,771
    HYUFD said:

    Latest voting intention. Very small changes indeed as Reform lead goes to 6 over the Tories.

    ➡️ REF UK 27% (nc)
    🌳 CON 21% (-1)
    🌹 LAB 20% (nc)
    🌍 GREEN 13% (+1)
    🔶 LIB DEM 11% (nc)
    ❓OTH 3% (-2)
    🟡 SNP 3% (nc)


    https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/2049390140980691016?s=20

    Broken, sleazy Tories (and others) on the slide!
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,190

    Dopermean said:

    FPT:
    MarqueeMark said:

    Another 1,180 Russian troops and 54 artillery systems unavaible to parade in Red Square as of yesterday.

    On another victory parade metric, the Russian soldiers lost in Ukraine in April alone - 31,150 with two days to go - if they were in groups of 10 x 10, would compromise 311 such "squares". They would take some 45 minutes to march past Putin...

    If they were White Walkers.

    Trouble is, if you lost 25 million countrymen during the Great Patriotic War, losing tens of thousands now is merely unfortunate.
    The Great Patriotic War was not a war of choice - it was an existential threat from the Nazis.

    Despite trying to brand it as such, it is widely understood within Russia that the Ukraine SMO was Putin's own land-grab. The better parallel is with Afghanistan, where far, far fewer casualties ground down any support for that adventure.

    And this one is trashing the Russian economy as Ukraine has fought dirty - by blowing up Russia as a gas station.
    The Russian birth rate is something like 100k a month.

    If they are losing 30k troops a month, that’s about half the number of male children born.

    And they are already in a demographic crisis.
    It iwll be 34,000 this month. Which is 2/3rds of male births.
    But they're not just sending Russians
    Putin won't stop the war because of a lack of troops to sacrifice, killing Russian troops, while necessary, won't help with post conflict relations.
    Why?

    It’s a curious fact of human psychology that there is little or no resentment between nations for the slaughters on the battlefield.

    After both World wars, everyone rapidly forgot about the epic death rate - there was even a low rate of prosecution for the hideous genocides committed in WWII.
    Plenty of people of my parents' generation were racist towards Germans and Japanese for quite a long time.
    It wasn't so much the Germans; I did German O level in the early/mid 50's and the class was full.

    However there was a LOT of ill-feeling towards the Japanese especially as a result the treatment of PoW's.
    The Dutch are pretty anti-German. Look up the Dutch Hongerwinter if you want to understand why. And also see the epigenetic effects on the Dutch that are still evident today,
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 81,143
    RobD said:

    Starmer is livid about the privileges committee vote - attacked both Kemi and Davey for the "stunt"

    No different from the games Starmer played while in opposition.
    I'm sure ministers have themselves to the privileges committee in the past.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,849
    https://x.com/Telegraph/status/2049434884339306664

    Members of a religious sect have been arrested over allegations of sex offences, forced marriage and modern slavery.

    More than 500 police officers from a number of forces took part in a raid on the Ahmadi Religion of Peace and Light headquarters in Crewe on Wednesday morning.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,190

    Dopermean said:

    FPT:
    MarqueeMark said:

    Another 1,180 Russian troops and 54 artillery systems unavaible to parade in Red Square as of yesterday.

    On another victory parade metric, the Russian soldiers lost in Ukraine in April alone - 31,150 with two days to go - if they were in groups of 10 x 10, would compromise 311 such "squares". They would take some 45 minutes to march past Putin...

    If they were White Walkers.

    Trouble is, if you lost 25 million countrymen during the Great Patriotic War, losing tens of thousands now is merely unfortunate.
    The Great Patriotic War was not a war of choice - it was an existential threat from the Nazis.

    Despite trying to brand it as such, it is widely understood within Russia that the Ukraine SMO was Putin's own land-grab. The better parallel is with Afghanistan, where far, far fewer casualties ground down any support for that adventure.

    And this one is trashing the Russian economy as Ukraine has fought dirty - by blowing up Russia as a gas station.
    The Russian birth rate is something like 100k a month.

    If they are losing 30k troops a month, that’s about half the number of male children born.

    And they are already in a demographic crisis.
    It iwll be 34,000 this month. Which is 2/3rds of male births.
    But they're not just sending Russians
    Putin won't stop the war because of a lack of troops to sacrifice, killing Russian troops, while necessary, won't help with post conflict relations.
    Why?

    It’s a curious fact of human psychology that there is little or no resentment between nations for the slaughters on the battlefield.

    After both World wars, everyone rapidly forgot about the epic death rate - there was even a low rate of prosecution for the hideous genocides committed in WWII.
    Plenty of people of my parents' generation were racist towards Germans and Japanese for quite a long time.
    It wasn't so much the Germans; I did German O level in the early/mid 50's and the class was full.

    However there was a LOT of ill-feeling towards the Japanese especially as a result the treatment of PoW's.
    We might have felt differently had the Germans treated US, UK, Aus, NZ and Canadians the way they behave on the Eastern Front.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 91,956

    Starmer is livid about the privileges committee vote - attacked both Kemi and Davey for the "stunt"

    Just following the process in full....
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 15,630

    Pulpstar said:

    Off topic, I note the Prem was extended to end at the end of May in 2008/9.

    FA Cup should be after the last Prem match tbh

    I agree but it’s UEFA’s fault.

    Plus they need to keep Wembley free for the play off finals.
    Reduce the prem to 16 clubs, so only 30 fixtures. Finished BEFORE FA Cup final. Fewer games so players less tired. England wins the WC.
    They should do a split like the SPL for the last part of the season too.
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,536

    Starmer is livid about the privileges committee vote - attacked both Kemi and Davey for the "stunt"

    Just following the process in full....
    A uup mp suggested it could be his last pmqs and he didn't like that much either
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 91,956
    HYUFD said:

    @LeftieStats
    🗳️ NEW | Tower Hamlets Council MRP estimate:

    🟧 Aspire: 36% (+1)
    🟢 Green: 27% (+17)
    🔴 Labour: 19% (-16)

    Via
    @JLPartnersPolls
    , 17-27 April
    ---
    (+/- vs 2022)

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/2049209535961980973?s=20

    Aspire...your joking not another one....i have enough trouble remembering my Advance, Reform, Reclaim, Your, My, Count Binface, Monster Raving, Green, all round Jamie Vardys for a Party Party.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,566
    edited April 29

    Pulpstar said:

    Off topic, I note the Prem was extended to end at the end of May in 2008/9.

    FA Cup should be after the last Prem match tbh

    I agree but it’s UEFA’s fault.

    Plus they need to keep Wembley free for the play off finals.
    Reduce the prem to 16 clubs, so only 30 fixtures. Finished BEFORE FA Cup final. Fewer games so players less tired. England wins the WC.
    Turkeys ain’t voting for Christmas.

    Potentially next season we might see a big six team get buggered senseless financially like never before as they are struggle in the Championship.

    Just imagine if the European Super League had gone ahead and one of the founder members was relegated.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,858
    46% of British voters think Reform policies are racist, 36% disagree, 43% think Reform voters are racist, 35% disagree. Clear majorities of Labour, LD and Green voters think Reform policies and voters are racist

    https://x.com/YouGov/status/2049450052603543561?s=20
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,771

    HYUFD said:

    @LeftieStats
    🗳️ NEW | Tower Hamlets Council MRP estimate:

    🟧 Aspire: 36% (+1)
    🟢 Green: 27% (+17)
    🔴 Labour: 19% (-16)

    Via
    @JLPartnersPolls
    , 17-27 April
    ---
    (+/- vs 2022)

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/2049209535961980973?s=20

    Aspire...your joking not another one....i have enough trouble remembering my Advance, Reform, Reclaim, Your, My, Count Binface, Monster Raving, Green, all round Jamie Vardys for a Party Party.
    They've been around for a while.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,627
    Taz said:

    Dopermean said:

    Farage "gifted" £5m by Harbonne to stand in Clacton.
    Guarfian

    Typical press.

    That’s a Telegraph story they’re just cutting n pasting.

    Anything illegal here ?
    As noted above, it's a Guardian story.
    They gave Reform advance notice so they could respond, and Reform gave the story to the Telegraph.

    Taking advantage of good journalistic practice like that is likely to backfire on Reform in the future.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,124

    Starmer is livid about the privileges committee vote - attacked both Kemi and Davey for the "stunt"

    What an idiot.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 9,626
    HYUFD said:

    Latest voting intention. Very small changes indeed as Reform lead goes to 6 over the Tories.

    ➡️ REF UK 27% (nc)
    🌳 CON 21% (-1)
    🌹 LAB 20% (nc)
    🌍 GREEN 13% (+1)
    🔶 LIB DEM 11% (nc)
    ❓OTH 3% (-2)
    🟡 SNP 3% (nc)


    https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/2049390140980691016?s=20

    Remarkable really that Labour's share, albeit paltry, is holding up despite a dreadful few weeks for Starmer.
    It rather suggests that there's a core Labour vote of 17-20% that will support the government irrespective of the ordure heaped on it.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,771

    Dopermean said:

    FPT:
    MarqueeMark said:

    Another 1,180 Russian troops and 54 artillery systems unavaible to parade in Red Square as of yesterday.

    On another victory parade metric, the Russian soldiers lost in Ukraine in April alone - 31,150 with two days to go - if they were in groups of 10 x 10, would compromise 311 such "squares". They would take some 45 minutes to march past Putin...

    If they were White Walkers.

    Trouble is, if you lost 25 million countrymen during the Great Patriotic War, losing tens of thousands now is merely unfortunate.
    The Great Patriotic War was not a war of choice - it was an existential threat from the Nazis.

    Despite trying to brand it as such, it is widely understood within Russia that the Ukraine SMO was Putin's own land-grab. The better parallel is with Afghanistan, where far, far fewer casualties ground down any support for that adventure.

    And this one is trashing the Russian economy as Ukraine has fought dirty - by blowing up Russia as a gas station.
    The Russian birth rate is something like 100k a month.

    If they are losing 30k troops a month, that’s about half the number of male children born.

    And they are already in a demographic crisis.
    It iwll be 34,000 this month. Which is 2/3rds of male births.
    But they're not just sending Russians
    Putin won't stop the war because of a lack of troops to sacrifice, killing Russian troops, while necessary, won't help with post conflict relations.
    Why?

    It’s a curious fact of human psychology that there is little or no resentment between nations for the slaughters on the battlefield.

    After both World wars, everyone rapidly forgot about the epic death rate - there was even a low rate of prosecution for the hideous genocides committed in WWII.
    Plenty of people of my parents' generation were racist towards Germans and Japanese for quite a long time.
    It wasn't so much the Germans; I did German O level in the early/mid 50's and the class was full.

    However there was a LOT of ill-feeling towards the Japanese especially as a result the treatment of PoW's.
    We might have felt differently had the Germans treated US, UK, Aus, NZ and Canadians the way they behave on the Eastern Front.
    And there were wholesale expulsion of ethnic Germans from nearly all of Eastern Europe in 1945.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 81,143

    Pulpstar said:

    Off topic, I note the Prem was extended to end at the end of May in 2008/9.

    FA Cup should be after the last Prem match tbh

    I agree but it’s UEFA’s fault.

    Plus they need to keep Wembley free for the play off finals.
    Reduce the prem to 16 clubs, so only 30 fixtures. Finished BEFORE FA Cup final. Fewer games so players less tired. England wins the WC.
    Turkeys ain’t voting for Christmas.

    Potentially next season we might see a big six team get buggered senseless financially like never before as they are struggle in the Championship.

    Just imagine if the European Super League had gone ahead and one of the founder members was relegated.
    The Prem is the one solvent bit of the pyramid; the median market wage further down essentially forces the median Champ/L1/L2 club to essentially trade insolvently due to the PFA 'not having it' on salary caps.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,383

    FPT:
    MarqueeMark said:

    Another 1,180 Russian troops and 54 artillery systems unavaible to parade in Red Square as of yesterday.

    On another victory parade metric, the Russian soldiers lost in Ukraine in April alone - 31,150 with two days to go - if they were in groups of 10 x 10, would compromise 311 such "squares". They would take some 45 minutes to march past Putin...

    If they were White Walkers.

    No vehicles are expected to be part of the annual victory day parade, which is going to be a lot shorter and with fewer guests.

    Part of the problem with having an annual military parade to show off your military strength is that it becomes obvious when your military strength has been destroyed. (Just as well Britain has always stuck to parading with horses and ridiculous hats.)
    Tanks when yer winnin'
    Yer've only tanks when yer winnin'...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 91,956
    edited April 29

    HYUFD said:

    Latest voting intention. Very small changes indeed as Reform lead goes to 6 over the Tories.

    ➡️ REF UK 27% (nc)
    🌳 CON 21% (-1)
    🌹 LAB 20% (nc)
    🌍 GREEN 13% (+1)
    🔶 LIB DEM 11% (nc)
    ❓OTH 3% (-2)
    🟡 SNP 3% (nc)


    https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/2049390140980691016?s=20

    Remarkable really that Labour's share, albeit paltry, is holding up despite a dreadful few weeks for Starmer.
    It rather suggests that there's a core Labour vote of 17-20% that will support the government irrespective of the ordure heaped on it.
    We used to say the bedrck was 30% for Tories / Labour, then 20%, now on a good day its 20%. Come a GE they will both get 20% due to client vote and cant vote for any of the others.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,526
    Taz said:

    Starmer is livid about the privileges committee vote - attacked both Kemi and Davey for the "stunt"

    What an idiot.
    “We are just following the correct process. Didn’t the paperwork on this cross your desk?”
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,627
    A what ?

    The Pentagon is considering outsourcing warship design and building to Korea and Japan with a proposed $1.85 billion feasibility study into the project within the proposed budget for 2027, with the study to look at the feasibility of adopting or co-producing advanced hulls such as Japan’s Mogami-class and Korea’s Daegu-class frigates to supplement the U.S. Navy, according to USNI News.
    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/2049381749411450912
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,687

    Starmer is livid about the privileges committee vote - attacked both Kemi and Davey for the "stunt"

    I try to use bad words sparingly on here, but Starmer can fuck right off.

    Then he can fuck off some more.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 22,865

    HYUFD said:

    Latest voting intention. Very small changes indeed as Reform lead goes to 6 over the Tories.

    ➡️ REF UK 27% (nc)
    🌳 CON 21% (-1)
    🌹 LAB 20% (nc)
    🌍 GREEN 13% (+1)
    🔶 LIB DEM 11% (nc)
    ❓OTH 3% (-2)
    🟡 SNP 3% (nc)


    https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/2049390140980691016?s=20

    Remarkable really that Labour's share, albeit paltry, is holding up despite a dreadful few weeks for Starmer.
    It rather suggests that there's a core Labour vote of 17-20% that will support the government irrespective of the ordure heaped on it.
    Few things matter much, most things don't matter at all.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,222
    Taz said:

    This is absolutely right. Certainly for former industrial areas

    People like Rochdale get it.

    The main parties and the PB herd don’t and just demonise the likes of Lucy and ignore the reasons.

    ‘ Think this quote from Lucy who voted Conservative in 2019, Labour in 2024 and is probably voting Green now but would also consider Reform just encapsulates people’s desperation to find some/any party that would bring about the change they so desperately want’


    https://x.com/luketryl/status/2049127363737198934?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    I was proven wrong on this in Gorton and Denton (where there was a Green landslide) but my instinct is that 'Probably Green but will consider Reform' just means 'Reform, but don't want a dirty look from the pollster'.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 8,260
    HYUFD said:

    46% of British voters think Reform policies are racist, 36% disagree, 43% think Reform voters are racist, 35% disagree. Clear majorities of Labour, LD and Green voters think Reform policies and voters are racist

    https://x.com/YouGov/status/2049450052603543561?s=20

    But how many approve of Reform policies being racist?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,771

    Pulpstar said:

    Off topic, I note the Prem was extended to end at the end of May in 2008/9.

    FA Cup should be after the last Prem match tbh

    I agree but it’s UEFA’s fault.

    Plus they need to keep Wembley free for the play off finals.
    Reduce the prem to 16 clubs, so only 30 fixtures. Finished BEFORE FA Cup final. Fewer games so players less tired. England wins the WC.
    Get rid of these spurious minor Euro competitions, and just limit it to top 3 in the Champs League.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 22,865

    Taz said:

    This is absolutely right. Certainly for former industrial areas

    People like Rochdale get it.

    The main parties and the PB herd don’t and just demonise the likes of Lucy and ignore the reasons.

    ‘ Think this quote from Lucy who voted Conservative in 2019, Labour in 2024 and is probably voting Green now but would also consider Reform just encapsulates people’s desperation to find some/any party that would bring about the change they so desperately want’


    https://x.com/luketryl/status/2049127363737198934?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    I was proven wrong on this in Gorton and Denton (where there was a Green landslide) but my instinct is that 'Probably Green but will consider Reform' just means 'Reform, but don't want a dirty look from the pollster'.
    Same impulse (rip it up and start again), different manifestations.

    Not surprising that there's churn. It's the same anti establishment dynamic that drove Lib Dem/UKIP switchers.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 91,956
    edited April 29
    HYUFD said:

    46% of British voters think Reform policies are racist, 36% disagree, 43% think Reform voters are racist, 35% disagree. Clear majorities of Labour, LD and Green voters think Reform policies and voters are racist

    https://x.com/YouGov/status/2049450052603543561?s=20

    I would be interested to know how many actually know what Reforms policy platform actually is. I cant say i know. Same with Lib Dems. Some vague ideas about Tories.
  • eekeek Posts: 33,916
    Sandpit said:

    Starmer is livid about the privileges committee vote - attacked both Kemi and Davey for the "stunt"

    I try to use bad words sparingly on here, but Starmer can fuck right off.

    Then he can fuck off some more.
    +1 - if he had done absolutely nothing wrong he wouldn't have to worry about the opinion of the privileges committee - given the 3 line whip he has something to hide...

  • TazTaz Posts: 28,124
    HYUFD said:

    46% of British voters think Reform policies are racist, 36% disagree, 43% think Reform voters are racist, 35% disagree. Clear majorities of Labour, LD and Green voters think Reform policies and voters are racist

    https://x.com/YouGov/status/2049450052603543561?s=20

    Poll PB and those anti reform numbers would be doubled.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,124
    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Starmer is livid about the privileges committee vote - attacked both Kemi and Davey for the "stunt"

    I try to use bad words sparingly on here, but Starmer can fuck right off.

    Then he can fuck off some more.
    +1 - if he had done absolutely nothing wrong he wouldn't have to worry about the opinion of the privileges committee - given the 3 line whip he has something to hide...

    Indeed. This is absolutely the impression it gives.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,222
    FF43 said:

    Not much into monarchy, but equating Harry with Andrew, as several people have done here, seems grotesque.

    Andrew has not heen convicted of a crime, despite being by all accounts a very unpleasant man.

    It is a personal preference, but I would prefer King Andrew to either of the American kids with the tacky first names (not that such a choice would ever become likely with the generation gap).
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 5,542

    HYUFD said:

    46% of British voters think Reform policies are racist, 36% disagree, 43% think Reform voters are racist, 35% disagree. Clear majorities of Labour, LD and Green voters think Reform policies and voters are racist

    https://x.com/YouGov/status/2049450052603543561?s=20

    I would be interested to know how many actually know what Reforms policy platform actually is. I cant say i know. Same with Lib Dems. Some vague ideas about Tories.
    I think the question is being interpreted as whether reform politicians not policies are racist.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,124
    Not good

    I used to work at the Alstom depot in Golders. As an aside.

    ‘ 🚨 BREAKING - Reports of two Jewish people stabbed in Golders Green. A witness told me a knifeman was ‘chasing Jews’. He’s been arrested.’

    https://x.com/patrickchristys/status/2049440175311176170?s=61
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 58,890
    High Court quashes £585k fine of Sussex University: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cp8pnwyy0zjo

    The Court found that the regulator, the Office for Students, was biased, unfair in its processes and didn't seem to understand what academic freedom actually meant.

    In any sane world the response to this would surely be to abolish this completely ridiculous regulator completely but the government thought it was a good idea to given them even more powers last year.

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,222

    Seen at Westminster just now!


    No real surprise that remainers think coarse language is acceptable on a piece of signage.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,383

    Seen at Westminster just now!


    No real surprise that remainers think coarse language is acceptable on a piece of signage.
    "WE'RE STILL HERE BECAUSE
    BEATEN BY THE SIDE OF A BUS"
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 81,143
    DavidL said:

    High Court quashes £585k fine of Sussex University: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cp8pnwyy0zjo

    The Court found that the regulator, the Office for Students, was biased, unfair in its processes and didn't seem to understand what academic freedom actually meant.

    In any sane world the response to this would surely be to abolish this completely ridiculous regulator completely but the government thought it was a good idea to given them even more powers last year.

    Well thats one quango that needs to be stuck on the bonfire.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,383

    FF43 said:

    Not much into monarchy, but equating Harry with Andrew, as several people have done here, seems grotesque.

    Andrew has not heen convicted of a crime, despite being by all accounts a very unpleasant man.

    It is a personal preference, but I would prefer King Andrew to either of the American kids with the tacky first names (not that such a choice would ever become likely with the generation gap).
    *King Ralph waves*
  • boulayboulay Posts: 8,878
    WTF is this suddenly referring to the”Prem”? It’s the Premier League, the “PREM” is the top tier of English Rugby Union.

    If you can’t be arsed to type Premier League use EPL or PL but “Prem” is an abomination.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 58,890

    Seen at Westminster just now!


    No real surprise that remainers think coarse language is acceptable on a piece of signage.
    If only they were sensible people who read PB (as all sensible people do) and realised that the economic effects of Brexit were probably a very small net positive as explained @Fishing in the previous thread.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,849
    Macron likes the idea of a French-speaking America.

    https://x.com/EmmanuelMacron/status/2049456201570644039

    That would be chic!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,383

    Pulpstar said:

    Off topic, I note the Prem was extended to end at the end of May in 2008/9.

    FA Cup should be after the last Prem match tbh

    I agree but it’s UEFA’s fault.

    Plus they need to keep Wembley free for the play off finals.
    Reduce the prem to 16 clubs, so only 30 fixtures. Finished BEFORE FA Cup final. Fewer games so players less tired. England wins the WC.
    Get rid of these spurious minor Euro competitions, and just limit it to top 3 in the Champs League.
    I bloody well HATE international breaks.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,428

    HYUFD said:

    @LeftieStats
    🗳️ NEW | Tower Hamlets Council MRP estimate:

    🟧 Aspire: 36% (+1)
    🟢 Green: 27% (+17)
    🔴 Labour: 19% (-16)

    Via
    @JLPartnersPolls
    , 17-27 April
    ---
    (+/- vs 2022)

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/2049209535961980973?s=20

    That might or might not turn out to be right, but I'd have thought MRPs come with a heavy asterisk where there's a dominant localist party.

    The whole point of MRP models is they work on the basis that you can predict the intentions of a voter with a particular demographic profile in one area from voters with similar profiles elsewhere (that's the multiple regression aspect). That can't work nearly as well where Aspire is concerned as nobody outside Tower Hamlets is voting for them.

    So I'd take MRPs more seriously in areas with more conventional party battles rather than in Tower Hamlets.
    Indeed. HY is effectively posting a small subsample of a poll.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 58,890

    Macron likes the idea of a French-speaking America.

    https://x.com/EmmanuelMacron/status/2049456201570644039

    That would be chic!

    He is showing his usual lack of insight and should reflect on Charles's comments about what they have done to English!
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,222
    DavidL said:

    Seen at Westminster just now!


    No real surprise that remainers think coarse language is acceptable on a piece of signage.
    If only they were sensible people who read PB (as all sensible people do) and realised that the economic effects of Brexit were probably a very small net positive as explained @Fishing in the previous thread.
    Quite. Though looking at the picture, I suspect a couple of them may be regulars.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,222

    Taz said:

    This is absolutely right. Certainly for former industrial areas

    People like Rochdale get it.

    The main parties and the PB herd don’t and just demonise the likes of Lucy and ignore the reasons.

    ‘ Think this quote from Lucy who voted Conservative in 2019, Labour in 2024 and is probably voting Green now but would also consider Reform just encapsulates people’s desperation to find some/any party that would bring about the change they so desperately want’


    https://x.com/luketryl/status/2049127363737198934?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    I was proven wrong on this in Gorton and Denton (where there was a Green landslide) but my instinct is that 'Probably Green but will consider Reform' just means 'Reform, but don't want a dirty look from the pollster'.
    Same impulse (rip it up and start again), different manifestations.

    Not surprising that there's churn. It's the same anti establishment dynamic that drove Lib Dem/UKIP switchers.
    But the Greens are still socially acceptable in a way that Reform are not. People realise that.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 47,892
    edited April 29
    Embodiment of FAFO.
    Clicking the link not for the faint hearted.

    https://x.com/ricwe123/status/2049406255504986420?s=46&t=fJymV-V84rexmlQMLXHHJQ
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,792

    Seen at Westminster just now!


    No real surprise that remainers think coarse language is acceptable on a piece of signage.
    "WE'RE STILL HERE BECAUSE
    BEATEN BY THE SIDE OF A BUS"
    We Remainers are biding our time - just waiting for the inevitable right royal screwup of St Nigel and then for the ensuing Lib Dem / Green coalition to take us back in.
  • ON topic, for once, I’m on my safari lodge balcony watching hippos vigorously poo. The nearest hippo has just pooed three times in a row while whirling his tail around and getting poo all over his back

    I guess they must actually enjoy ii - doing mad whirry poos. There’s a sense of delight in the action. I confess I’m slightly jealous
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 18,463
    DavidL said:

    Macron likes the idea of a French-speaking America.

    https://x.com/EmmanuelMacron/status/2049456201570644039

    That would be chic!

    He is showing his usual lack of insight and should reflect on Charles's comments about what they have done to English!
    I'm trying to imagine Americans being more annoying, and I reckon having them be French at the same time would do it.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 58,890

    DavidL said:

    Macron likes the idea of a French-speaking America.

    https://x.com/EmmanuelMacron/status/2049456201570644039

    That would be chic!

    He is showing his usual lack of insight and should reflect on Charles's comments about what they have done to English!
    I'm trying to imagine Americans being more annoying, and I reckon having them be French at the same time would do it.
    I'm impressed. Right now imagining Americans being more annoying is no easy task.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 28,764
    DavidL said:

    High Court quashes £585k fine of Sussex University: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cp8pnwyy0zjo

    I'm a bit surprised at that. My headcanon is that the powers-that-be are perfectly comfortable with speech suppression, providing it is on speech they don't like, with the corollary that they protect speech that they do like. However, looking at the article there was an element of process-nonobservance so Malmesbury rules apply and they'll just tick more boxes in future.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,951

    Seen at Westminster just now!


    No real surprise that remainers think coarse language is acceptable on a piece of signage.
    We did consider using European Union (Withdrawal Agreement) Act 2020 but thought it too long to fit on the sign so had to use Brexit instead. Apologies.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 58,890
    Leon said:

    ON topic, for once, I’m on my safari lodge balcony watching hippos vigorously poo. The nearest hippo has just pooed three times in a row while whirling his tail around and getting poo all over his back

    I guess they must actually enjoy ii - doing mad whirry poos. There’s a sense of delight in the action. I confess I’m slightly jealous

    I had another look at the thread header but I am still struggling to see why this is on topic, fascinating though it is. Do they perhaps use their dung as a form of sun block?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 47,892
    edited April 29

    Seen at Westminster just now!


    No real surprise that remainers think coarse language is acceptable on a piece of signage.
    Lol!
    If you think crap is coarse I fear for any impending visit to Glasow, though we’’d make sure you got a right fucking hospitable welcome (genuinely).
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 20,949
    HYUFD said:

    @LeftieStats
    🗳️ NEW | Tower Hamlets Council MRP estimate:

    🟧 Aspire: 36% (+1)
    🟢 Green: 27% (+17)
    🔴 Labour: 19% (-16)

    Via
    @JLPartnersPolls
    , 17-27 April
    ---
    (+/- vs 2022)

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/2049209535961980973?s=20

    Aspire are, I think, Your Party endorsed.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 43,516
    @pickardje.bsky.social‬

    this is an absolutely extraordinary scoop by Guardian:

    Nigel Farage was given £5m by the crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne shortly before announcing he would stand in the 2024 British general election, the Guardian can reveal

    https://bsky.app/profile/pickardje.bsky.social/post/3mkmzajnauk2e
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 28,764
    Leon said:

    ON topic, for once, I’m on my safari lodge balcony watching hippos vigorously poo. The nearest hippo has just pooed three times in a row while whirling his tail around and getting poo all over his back

    I guess they must actually enjoy ii - doing mad whirry poos. There’s a sense of delight in the action. I confess I’m slightly jealous

    If you Google "why do hippos spray their poop with their tail", you will find out why. Really.
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,953

    HYUFD said:

    46% of British voters think Reform policies are racist, 36% disagree, 43% think Reform voters are racist, 35% disagree. Clear majorities of Labour, LD and Green voters think Reform policies and voters are racist

    https://x.com/YouGov/status/2049450052603543561?s=20

    I would be interested to know how many actually know what Reforms policy platform actually is. I cant say i know. Same with Lib Dems. Some vague ideas about Tories.
    Broadly is the same as Johnsons 2019 platform isn't it, except Farage is more plausible about implementation than Johnson ever was.?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 18,463

    Seen at Westminster just now!


    No real surprise that remainers think coarse language is acceptable on a piece of signage.
    Lol!
    If you think crap is coarse I fear for any impending visit to Glasow, though we’’d make sure you got a right fucking hospitable welcome (genuinely).
    Lol, Glasgow, the city where the other C word is a term of endearment.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,627

    Seen at Westminster just now!


    No real surprise that remainers think coarse language is acceptable on a piece of signage.
    No amount of pearl clutching changes the fact that it's true.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,951
    Scott_xP said:

    @pickardje.bsky.social‬

    this is an absolutely extraordinary scoop by Guardian:

    Nigel Farage was given £5m by the crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne shortly before announcing he would stand in the 2024 British general election, the Guardian can reveal

    https://bsky.app/profile/pickardje.bsky.social/post/3mkmzajnauk2e

    Its alright, he doesn't want to have any influence, it is pure coincidence that Farage and Reform are proposing massive crypto deregulation.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 20,949

    HYUFD said:

    @LeftieStats
    🗳️ NEW | Tower Hamlets Council MRP estimate:

    🟧 Aspire: 36% (+1)
    🟢 Green: 27% (+17)
    🔴 Labour: 19% (-16)

    Via
    @JLPartnersPolls
    , 17-27 April
    ---
    (+/- vs 2022)

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/2049209535961980973?s=20

    Aspire...your joking not another one....i have enough trouble remembering my Advance, Reform, Reclaim, Your, My, Count Binface, Monster Raving, Green, all round Jamie Vardys for a Party Party.
    They've been around for a while.
    And were Tower Hamlets First previously.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,627

    DavidL said:

    Macron likes the idea of a French-speaking America.

    https://x.com/EmmanuelMacron/status/2049456201570644039

    That would be chic!

    He is showing his usual lack of insight and should reflect on Charles's comments about what they have done to English!
    I'm trying to imagine Americans being more annoying, and I reckon having them be French at the same time would do it.
    No need to imagine.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louisiana_French

  • RobDRobD Posts: 61,132
    Scott_xP said:

    @pickardje.bsky.social‬

    this is an absolutely extraordinary scoop by Guardian:

    Nigel Farage was given £5m by the crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne shortly before announcing he would stand in the 2024 British general election, the Guardian can reveal

    https://bsky.app/profile/pickardje.bsky.social/post/3mkmzajnauk2e

    A scoop, perhaps, but an absolutely extrodinary one? It's not all that surprising, is it.
This discussion has been closed.