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A 5% return in just over a week? (and potentially 40% in over a week?) – politicalbetting.com

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  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 47,891
    Dura_Ace said:

    Good morning

    Charlie saves the day is not what I expected to write this am but he absolutely has

    His speeches were clever, witty, and won over America

    At the same time he put Trump in the shadows, and showed Starmer you do not need to fawn over Trump to win your argument

    What's actually changed?
    Well, the people who previously said how marvellous it was for the special relationship that there was 'chemistry' between Trump and Starmer are now saying how marvellous it is for the special relationship that there's 'chemistry' between Trump and Chaerles, so there is that.
  • eekeek Posts: 33,909

    Nigelb said:

    Taz said:

    This is absolutely right. Certainly for former industrial areas

    People like Rochdale get it.

    The main parties and the PB herd don’t and just demonise the likes of Lucy and ignore the reasons.

    ‘ Think this quote from Lucy who voted Conservative in 2019, Labour in 2024 and is probably voting Green now but would also consider Reform just encapsulates people’s desperation to find some/any party that would bring about the change they so desperately want’

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/2049127363737198934?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    A touch of strawmanning in that argument.
    It's not "demonising" them to point out the likely futility of their choices.

    Many of us are just as frustrated with the efforts of the former duopoly, but we seriously doubt that change brought about by a prospective Reform or Green administration would do anything to improve matters.
    The truth is that it doesn't matter which council you elect next week.

    They will be as broke then as they are now.
    They will have the same statutory duties to hosepipe cash at social care as they do now
    Everything that could possibly be cut has been cut
    Most councillors are normal people and that means many are at best not very good and at worst stupid and malevolent. Which means the officers who are running the council will continue to run the council
    The one thing a reform council may do is as with Durham not raise council tax to much this year, so creating a bigger problem down the line
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 32,333
    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    Taz said:

    This is absolutely right. Certainly for former industrial areas

    People like Rochdale get it.

    The main parties and the PB herd don’t and just demonise the likes of Lucy and ignore the reasons.

    ‘ Think this quote from Lucy who voted Conservative in 2019, Labour in 2024 and is probably voting Green now but would also consider Reform just encapsulates people’s desperation to find some/any party that would bring about the change they so desperately want’

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/2049127363737198934?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    A touch of strawmanning in that argument.
    It's not "demonising" them to point out the likely futility of their choices.

    Many of us are just as frustrated with the efforts of the former duopoly, but we seriously doubt that change brought about by a prospective Reform or Green administration would do anything to improve matters.
    The truth is that it doesn't matter which council you elect next week.

    They will be as broke then as they are now.
    They will have the same statutory duties to hosepipe cash at social care as they do now
    Everything that could possibly be cut has been cut
    Most councillors are normal people and that means many are at best not very good and at worst stupid and malevolent. Which means the officers who are running the council will continue to run the council
    The one thing a reform council may do is as with Durham not raise council tax to much this year, so creating a bigger problem down the line
    ISTR Reform candidates promising to cut council tax. Its easy. Simply scrap DEI and return the cash to the people.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,602

    Nigelb said:

    Taz said:

    This is absolutely right. Certainly for former industrial areas

    People like Rochdale get it.

    The main parties and the PB herd don’t and just demonise the likes of Lucy and ignore the reasons.

    ‘ Think this quote from Lucy who voted Conservative in 2019, Labour in 2024 and is probably voting Green now but would also consider Reform just encapsulates people’s desperation to find some/any party that would bring about the change they so desperately want’

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/2049127363737198934?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    A touch of strawmanning in that argument.
    It's not "demonising" them to point out the likely futility of their choices.

    Many of us are just as frustrated with the efforts of the former duopoly, but we seriously doubt that change brought about by a prospective Reform or Green administration would do anything to improve matters.
    The truth is that it doesn't matter which council you elect next week.

    They will be as broke then as they are now.
    They will have the same statutory duties to hosepipe cash at social care as they do now
    Everything that could possibly be cut has been cut
    Most councillors are normal people and that means many are at best not very good and at worst stupid and malevolent. Which means the officers who are running the council will continue to run the council
    Up to a point.
    The problems are, as you say, intractable and to a fair extent beyond the influence of councillors. But bad councillors can make things a lot worse than a set of competent ones do.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,172
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    This is absolutely right. Certainly for former industrial areas

    People like Rochdale get it.

    The main parties and the PB herd don’t and just demonise the likes of Lucy and ignore the reasons.

    ‘ Think this quote from Lucy who voted Conservative in 2019, Labour in 2024 and is probably voting Green now but would also consider Reform just encapsulates people’s desperation to find some/any party that would bring about the change they so desperately want’


    https://x.com/luketryl/status/2049127363737198934?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    Who on earth do you think is demonising her?
    Plenty on PB for starters. Plenty on social media. Voters are deemed stupid, ignorant, thick, voting against their own interests if they support these parties. Especially reform

    You may not have seen it. I have. And drop the passive aggressive responses. I’m just the messenger.
    Its Brexit all over again. The bien-pensant can never understand why people voted leave. At the Uni all the academics were in shock. I bet all the cleaners on grade 2 salaries weren't.

    The deal with government is that there should be work that pays enough to live a good life. Buy a house, have kids, have a holiday, retire early enough to enjoy your autumn years (note that doesn't mean we should all expect 30 years on a great pension as per the boomers). When that part of the deal is broken and people find that jobs don't pay enough to get the house and having kids is tough they look for 'change' without knowing what that 'change' is.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,857
    edited April 29
    Reform are obviously going to win most seats next week, they lead every poll. However I think Labour will still scrape second on seats won and councils won, Labour still lead in most London polls and every London council seat is up and in the Birmingham poll yesterday Labour were just ahead. In Scotland Labour are also neck and neck with Reform for second on MSPs won and even in Wales most polls have Labour beating the Tories still even if behind Plaid and Reform.

    Third place on seats won will be close between the Conservatives, LDs and Greens. On NEV the Conservatives should still come at least third, maybe even second based on their current polling. Remember though most shire counties ie the Tory heartlands, voted last year and don't have seats up this year and nor do most district and unitary councils in rural and market and commuter towns either where the Conservatives do best, they are next up next year. Instead it is the big cities like London and Manchester and Birmingham where Labour and the Greens will do best which are almost all holding council elections this year. Even the few county councils that are holding delayed elections this year eg Essex, Norfolk and Hampshire will likely see big Tory seat losses to Reform and in Hampshire and Surrey the LDs will likely beat the Conservatives on seats too.

    The nightmare for Kemi therefore is the Tories end up 5th on seats and councils won behind not only Reform and Labour but even behind the Greens and LDs as well. That would purely be because of the seats up mainly so in my view she should be judged on what the estimated NEV would be UK wide based on votes cast not on the actual seats and councils won
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,923

    Nigelb said:

    Taz said:

    This is absolutely right. Certainly for former industrial areas

    People like Rochdale get it.

    The main parties and the PB herd don’t and just demonise the likes of Lucy and ignore the reasons.

    ‘ Think this quote from Lucy who voted Conservative in 2019, Labour in 2024 and is probably voting Green now but would also consider Reform just encapsulates people’s desperation to find some/any party that would bring about the change they so desperately want’

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/2049127363737198934?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    A touch of strawmanning in that argument.
    It's not "demonising" them to point out the likely futility of their choices.

    Many of us are just as frustrated with the efforts of the former duopoly, but we seriously doubt that change brought about by a prospective Reform or Green administration would do anything to improve matters.
    The truth is that it doesn't matter which council you elect next week.

    They will be as broke then as they are now.
    They will have the same statutory duties to hosepipe cash at social care as they do now
    Everything that could possibly be cut has been cut
    Most councillors are normal people and that means many are at best not very good and at worst stupid and malevolent. Which means the officers who are running the council will continue to run the council
    I am sorry but that is defeatist and all too popular an answer from political centrist class these days as to why nothing can change
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 81,139

    Nigelb said:

    Taz said:

    This is absolutely right. Certainly for former industrial areas

    People like Rochdale get it.

    The main parties and the PB herd don’t and just demonise the likes of Lucy and ignore the reasons.

    ‘ Think this quote from Lucy who voted Conservative in 2019, Labour in 2024 and is probably voting Green now but would also consider Reform just encapsulates people’s desperation to find some/any party that would bring about the change they so desperately want’

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/2049127363737198934?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    A touch of strawmanning in that argument.
    It's not "demonising" them to point out the likely futility of their choices.

    Many of us are just as frustrated with the efforts of the former duopoly, but we seriously doubt that change brought about by a prospective Reform or Green administration would do anything to improve matters.
    The truth is that it doesn't matter which council you elect next week.

    They will be as broke then as they are now.
    They will have the same statutory duties to hosepipe cash at social care as they do now
    Everything that could possibly be cut has been cut
    Most councillors are normal people and that means many are at best not very good and at worst stupid and malevolent. Which means the officers who are running the council will continue to run the council
    The meta picture of council doesn't matter, but individual councillors do. We have not seen hide nor hare of our Reform county councillor whereas our district (Labour) councillors are active and have replied to my e-mails (Quickly) in the past. I also personally (Hi Dad) know other councillors who are very active and helpful - the party they represent isn't particularly important I think.

    Vote for whoever is likely to be your most active councillor, if your existing councillor is good then imv strongly consider voting for them unless they are part of a useless overall governing setup.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 32,333
    I don't understand why anyone who knows would actually want to be a councillor now. Which is how you have got so many exceptional candidates being unveiled for the likes of Reform. Kids literally in school uniform, the already failed and rejected and mad defecting from the Tories, the ideologues who really do think that brown people are the problem, the enthusiastic but blissfully unaware of what a council is and what it does.

    I have respect for *anyone* who stands for election, but bless them we're going to have some absolute spanners elected and a vicious soclal media witch hunt against them to seek and destroy.

    Like I said, why would anyone want to do it?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,857
    malcolmg said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The line of Succession

    SOVEREIGN

    1. The Prince of Wales

    2. Prince George of Wales

    3. Princess Charlotte of Wales

    4. Prince Louis of Wales

    5. The Duke of Sussex

    6. Prince Archie of Sussex

    7. Princess Lilibet of Sussex

    8. Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor

    Parasites all.
    All descended from the Scottish Stuarts and Bowes Lyons
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,857

    Scott_xP said:

    The line of Succession

    SOVEREIGN

    1. The Prince of Wales

    2. Prince George of Wales

    3. Princess Charlotte of Wales

    4. Prince Louis of Wales

    5. The Duke of Sussex

    6. Prince Archie of Sussex

    7. Princess Lilibet of Sussex

    8. Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor

    And I'm supposed to believe that this is God's will? Whereas God didn't bother to let us know his opinion about say global warming or the second world war?
    Neither of those were in the Bible, God anointing Kings like David and Solomon was
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 32,333

    Nigelb said:

    Taz said:

    This is absolutely right. Certainly for former industrial areas

    People like Rochdale get it.

    The main parties and the PB herd don’t and just demonise the likes of Lucy and ignore the reasons.

    ‘ Think this quote from Lucy who voted Conservative in 2019, Labour in 2024 and is probably voting Green now but would also consider Reform just encapsulates people’s desperation to find some/any party that would bring about the change they so desperately want’

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/2049127363737198934?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    A touch of strawmanning in that argument.
    It's not "demonising" them to point out the likely futility of their choices.

    Many of us are just as frustrated with the efforts of the former duopoly, but we seriously doubt that change brought about by a prospective Reform or Green administration would do anything to improve matters.
    The truth is that it doesn't matter which council you elect next week.

    They will be as broke then as they are now.
    They will have the same statutory duties to hosepipe cash at social care as they do now
    Everything that could possibly be cut has been cut
    Most councillors are normal people and that means many are at best not very good and at worst stupid and malevolent. Which means the officers who are running the council will continue to run the council
    I am sorry but that is defeatist and all too popular an answer from political centrist class these days as to why nothing can change
    No no, things can absolutely change. If I was installed as leader of Sunderland City Council (as an example) I'd focus on street furniture and cleansing. Have people out there ripping up weeds and filling in the cracks in the pavement and filling in potholes. Get the heritage officer producing info boards showcasing the proud history and heritage of the city and the surrounding towns like Houghton-le-Spring where I lived 20 years ago.

    There's a lot that can be done to lift the mood. But nothing that can be done to fix the budget deficit which will be worse every single year. The Big Picture is where councils are powerless. Which is where you need a canny leader to be smashing that message out there on social media, finding ways to show people very simply what the problem is.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,857
    Battlebus said:

    Seems that voters are dying out. Deaths are expected to outnumber births in the UK every year from 2026, according to projections from the Office for National Statistics (ONS)

    Between mid-2024 and mid-2034, the ONS projects:


    6.4 million people will be born

    6.9 million people will die

    7.3 million will immigrate to the UK on a long-term basis

    5.1 million people will emigrate long-term from the UK




    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckgpjd2zzl8o

    Yes our birth rate is now well below replacement rate and as those figures show if it wasn't for immigrants the UK population would be in steep decline, though as the figures also show even the rate of net migration to the UK has started to fall
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 29,502

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    This is absolutely right. Certainly for former industrial areas

    People like Rochdale get it.

    The main parties and the PB herd don’t and just demonise the likes of Lucy and ignore the reasons.

    ‘ Think this quote from Lucy who voted Conservative in 2019, Labour in 2024 and is probably voting Green now but would also consider Reform just encapsulates people’s desperation to find some/any party that would bring about the change they so desperately want’


    https://x.com/luketryl/status/2049127363737198934?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    Who on earth do you think is demonising her?
    Plenty on PB for starters. Plenty on social media. Voters are deemed stupid, ignorant, thick, voting against their own interests if they support these parties. Especially reform

    You may not have seen it. I have. And drop the passive aggressive responses. I’m just the messenger.
    Its Brexit all over again. The bien-pensant can never understand why people voted leave. At the Uni all the academics were in shock. I bet all the cleaners on grade 2 salaries weren't.

    The deal with government is that there should be work that pays enough to live a good life. Buy a house, have kids, have a holiday, retire early enough to enjoy your autumn years (note that doesn't mean we should all expect 30 years on a great pension as per the boomers). When that part of the deal is broken and people find that jobs don't pay enough to get the house and having kids is tough they look for 'change' without knowing what that 'change' is.
    That life is still pretty easily achievable for anyone with a useful skillset and lives in an areas with affordable housing.

    It has rarely been achievable for people without a useful skillset and/or live in an area with unaffordable housing.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 32,333
    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Taz said:

    This is absolutely right. Certainly for former industrial areas

    People like Rochdale get it.

    The main parties and the PB herd don’t and just demonise the likes of Lucy and ignore the reasons.

    ‘ Think this quote from Lucy who voted Conservative in 2019, Labour in 2024 and is probably voting Green now but would also consider Reform just encapsulates people’s desperation to find some/any party that would bring about the change they so desperately want’

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/2049127363737198934?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    A touch of strawmanning in that argument.
    It's not "demonising" them to point out the likely futility of their choices.

    Many of us are just as frustrated with the efforts of the former duopoly, but we seriously doubt that change brought about by a prospective Reform or Green administration would do anything to improve matters.
    The truth is that it doesn't matter which council you elect next week.

    They will be as broke then as they are now.
    They will have the same statutory duties to hosepipe cash at social care as they do now
    Everything that could possibly be cut has been cut
    Most councillors are normal people and that means many are at best not very good and at worst stupid and malevolent. Which means the officers who are running the council will continue to run the council
    The meta picture of council doesn't matter, but individual councillors do. We have not seen hide nor hare of our Reform county councillor whereas our district (Labour) councillors are active and have replied to my e-mails (Quickly) in the past. I also personally (Hi Dad) know other councillors who are very active and helpful - the party they represent isn't particularly important I think.

    Vote for whoever is likely to be your most active councillor, if your existing councillor is good then imv strongly consider voting for them unless they are part of a useless overall governing setup.
    Thats all worthy to a point. An active councillor responding quickly with bad news or no news or sorry but news will be swept away. This is always what happens - good councillors get demolished locally due to national issues regardless of what they do.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,857
    boulay said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    FPT:-

    Foxy said:

    I am not a great royalist but fair play to Charles he played a blinder

    And that's why you should be.
    No, the fact that we have had a run of mostly decent monarchs over the last 90 years doesn't invalidate that it is a genetic lottery.

    We could have had Edward VIII during WW2 and the Cold War if he had been able to keep his pants on, or Andrew instead of Charles if the sperm had arrived in different order. Or Harry instead of William (which would be my choice, albeit an unpopular one here).
    It’s not all genetics though. As PoW Charles was going to be king and was prepared and groomed for it. That was his destiny and curse. Andrew was destined to be the spare. That was his curse.

    Same for William and Andrew.
    We need to be careful with this heir and spare business. Twice in the last century the second son became king: Edward VII and George VI. Don't tear up those betting slips on King Harry.
    Harry isn't second in line any more, is he?
    Nope, George is. And then his brother. It would take something truly catastrophic to get back to Harry again. That ship has sailed, just as it did with Andrew. It is not an excuse but what then is the point of your life?
    George's sister, Charlotte, comes next before Louis.
    And a Republic comes before King Harry and Queen Meghan.
    Not necessarily, Harry and Meghan poll best with under 30s
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 47,891
    I quite like Gatiss but this post and replies aren't a bad illustration of the state we're in, inlcuding Graham 'extremely divorced' Linehanan immediately crowbarring in his obsessions.

    The New Statesman
    @NewStatesman
    Mark Gatiss: "I don't understand the antipathy towards Keir Starmer"

    The actor – currently starring in a play lampooning fascism – argues that the PM is doing a good job, but from the press he gets "you'd think he was Vlad the Impaler".

    Listen on the New Society podcast.

    https://x.com/NewStatesman/status/2049217265434812694?s=20
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 47,891
    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The line of Succession

    SOVEREIGN

    1. The Prince of Wales

    2. Prince George of Wales

    3. Princess Charlotte of Wales

    4. Prince Louis of Wales

    5. The Duke of Sussex

    6. Prince Archie of Sussex

    7. Princess Lilibet of Sussex

    8. Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor

    Parasites all.
    All descended from the Scottish Stuarts and Bowes Lyons
    Aye, and they were all parasites too,
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,857
    edited April 29

    FPT:-

    Foxy said:

    I am not a great royalist but fair play to Charles he played a blinder

    And that's why you should be.
    No, the fact that we have had a run of mostly decent monarchs over the last 90 years doesn't invalidate that it is a genetic lottery.

    We could have had Edward VIII during WW2 and the Cold War if he had been able to keep his pants on, or Andrew instead of Charles if the sperm had arrived in different order. Or Harry instead of William (which would be my choice, albeit an unpopular one here).
    It’s not all genetics though. As PoW Charles was going to be king and was prepared and groomed for it. That was his destiny and curse. Andrew was destined to be the spare. That was his curse.

    Same for William and Andrew.
    We need to be careful with this heir and spare business. Twice in the last century the second son became king: Edward VII and George VI. Don't tear up those betting slips on King Harry.
    Edward VII was the oldest son though unlike George VI. It was George Vth who was the second son until he was 27 when his older brother Prince Albert Victor died in the influenza epidemic of 1892
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 81,139

    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Taz said:

    This is absolutely right. Certainly for former industrial areas

    People like Rochdale get it.

    The main parties and the PB herd don’t and just demonise the likes of Lucy and ignore the reasons.

    ‘ Think this quote from Lucy who voted Conservative in 2019, Labour in 2024 and is probably voting Green now but would also consider Reform just encapsulates people’s desperation to find some/any party that would bring about the change they so desperately want’

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/2049127363737198934?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    A touch of strawmanning in that argument.
    It's not "demonising" them to point out the likely futility of their choices.

    Many of us are just as frustrated with the efforts of the former duopoly, but we seriously doubt that change brought about by a prospective Reform or Green administration would do anything to improve matters.
    The truth is that it doesn't matter which council you elect next week.

    They will be as broke then as they are now.
    They will have the same statutory duties to hosepipe cash at social care as they do now
    Everything that could possibly be cut has been cut
    Most councillors are normal people and that means many are at best not very good and at worst stupid and malevolent. Which means the officers who are running the council will continue to run the council
    The meta picture of council doesn't matter, but individual councillors do. We have not seen hide nor hare of our Reform county councillor whereas our district (Labour) councillors are active and have replied to my e-mails (Quickly) in the past. I also personally (Hi Dad) know other councillors who are very active and helpful - the party they represent isn't particularly important I think.

    Vote for whoever is likely to be your most active councillor, if your existing councillor is good then imv strongly consider voting for them unless they are part of a useless overall governing setup.
    Thats all worthy to a point. An active councillor responding quickly with bad news or no news or sorry but news will be swept away. This is always what happens - good councillors get demolished locally due to national issues regardless of what they do.
    My district councillor managed to get some "travellers" moved on reasonably quickly, I don't believe our county Reform councillor would have been as quick despite the perhaps slightly harsher national Reform tone compared to Labour on that particular issue. There are a few other issues where the district councillors have enacted positive change within their limits (30 reminders on the road; a camera would be CC function) and lack of footpath discussion/bush clearing on an existing pavement.
    Now of course most people don't pay attention but whether it'll allow them to get back in next time I don't know but the only thing you have is your individual vote.
  • eekeek Posts: 33,909
    edited April 29

    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    Taz said:

    This is absolutely right. Certainly for former industrial areas

    People like Rochdale get it.

    The main parties and the PB herd don’t and just demonise the likes of Lucy and ignore the reasons.

    ‘ Think this quote from Lucy who voted Conservative in 2019, Labour in 2024 and is probably voting Green now but would also consider Reform just encapsulates people’s desperation to find some/any party that would bring about the change they so desperately want’

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/2049127363737198934?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    A touch of strawmanning in that argument.
    It's not "demonising" them to point out the likely futility of their choices.

    Many of us are just as frustrated with the efforts of the former duopoly, but we seriously doubt that change brought about by a prospective Reform or Green administration would do anything to improve matters.
    The truth is that it doesn't matter which council you elect next week.

    They will be as broke then as they are now.
    They will have the same statutory duties to hosepipe cash at social care as they do now
    Everything that could possibly be cut has been cut
    Most councillors are normal people and that means many are at best not very good and at worst stupid and malevolent. Which means the officers who are running the council will continue to run the council
    The one thing a reform council may do is as with Durham not raise council tax to much this year, so creating a bigger problem down the line
    ISTR Reform candidates promising to cut council tax. Its easy. Simply scrap DEI and return the cash to the people.
    Except DEI costs are roughly less than sod all - as its day to day HR work.

    Curiously one of the big things Reform are attacking Labour on in South Tyneside is a £28,000 event to reward staff for doing work above and beyond duty.

    Yes it’s £28,000 that could be saved but I bet that type of reward generates £x00,000 of free Labour that otherwise would need to be paid for or not get done

    And it’s removing thank yous like this that results in the better workers leaving
  • FPT:
    MarqueeMark said:

    Another 1,180 Russian troops and 54 artillery systems unavaible to parade in Red Square as of yesterday.

    On another victory parade metric, the Russian soldiers lost in Ukraine in April alone - 31,150 with two days to go - if they were in groups of 10 x 10, would compromise 311 such "squares". They would take some 45 minutes to march past Putin...

    If they were White Walkers.

    Trouble is, if you lost 25 million countrymen during the Great Patriotic War, losing tens of thousands now is merely unfortunate.
    The Great Patriotic War was not a war of choice - it was an existential threat from the Nazis.

    Despite trying to brand it as such, it is widely understood within Russia that the Ukraine SMO was Putin's own land-grab. The better parallel is with Afghanistan, where far, far fewer casualties ground down any support for that adventure.

    And this one is trashing the Russian economy as Ukraine has fought dirty - by blowing up Russia as a gas station.
    The Russian birth rate is something like 100k a month.

    If they are losing 30k troops a month, that’s about half the number of male children born.

    And they are already in a demographic crisis.
    In addition, the Russians did not lose 25 million in the Great Patriotic War, the USSR did, and only half those losses were Russian.

    A quarter of those losses were Ukrainian, with the rest being from other nationalities.

    Russians actually had one of the lowest proportional death rates during the Great Patriotic War, the Ukrainians had a higher death rate and Belarus had the highest of all.

    Of course then and now Ukraine was invaded by a fascist aggressor engaging in a land grab which is why then and now they were/are prepared to absorb such high death rates to ensure their survival.

    Russia today is not in an existential fight, besides trying to ensure Putin does not accidentally slip and fall out of the window after accidentally cutting himself while shaving 34 times.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,602
    HYUFD said:

    Battlebus said:

    Seems that voters are dying out. Deaths are expected to outnumber births in the UK every year from 2026, according to projections from the Office for National Statistics (ONS)

    Between mid-2024 and mid-2034, the ONS projects:


    6.4 million people will be born

    6.9 million people will die

    7.3 million will immigrate to the UK on a long-term basis

    5.1 million people will emigrate long-term from the UK




    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckgpjd2zzl8o

    Yes our birth rate is now well below replacement rate and as those figures show if it wasn't for immigrants the UK population would be in steep decline, though as the figures also show even the rate of net migration to the UK has started to fall
    This year, for the first time in history, immigration from the US into Europe has exceeded emigration from Europe to the US.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,673
    The AI king is pretty good at speaking these days.

    https://x.com/papitrumpo/status/2049238798836343213 (parody)
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 3,133
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Taz said:

    This is absolutely right. Certainly for former industrial areas

    People like Rochdale get it.

    The main parties and the PB herd don’t and just demonise the likes of Lucy and ignore the reasons.

    ‘ Think this quote from Lucy who voted Conservative in 2019, Labour in 2024 and is probably voting Green now but would also consider Reform just encapsulates people’s desperation to find some/any party that would bring about the change they so desperately want’

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/2049127363737198934?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    A touch of strawmanning in that argument.
    It's not "demonising" them to point out the likely futility of their choices.

    Many of us are just as frustrated with the efforts of the former duopoly, but we seriously doubt that change brought about by a prospective Reform or Green administration would do anything to improve matters.
    The truth is that it doesn't matter which council you elect next week.

    They will be as broke then as they are now.
    They will have the same statutory duties to hosepipe cash at social care as they do now
    Everything that could possibly be cut has been cut
    Most councillors are normal people and that means many are at best not very good and at worst stupid and malevolent. Which means the officers who are running the council will continue to run the council
    Up to a point.
    The problems are, as you say, intractable and to a fair extent beyond the influence of councillors. But bad councillors can make things a lot worse than a set of competent ones do.
    My local councillors, who'll probably lose control next week, have managed to keep libraries, replace a leisure centre, collect bins and repair the roads while charging £450/year less than the neighbouring council, run by the party who'll probably take over control of my council, who demolished their leisure centre which has been wasteland for 5+ years now and are worse at repairing the roads.

    Both similar areas, the neighbouring council probably collects more in business rates so should be able to do a better job.

    So it can make a significant difference.
    Neither has yet embarked on property speculation thankfully.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,602

    I quite like Gatiss but this post and replies aren't a bad illustration of the state we're in, inlcuding Graham 'extremely divorced' Linehanan immediately crowbarring in his obsessions.

    The New Statesman
    @NewStatesman
    Mark Gatiss: "I don't understand the antipathy towards Keir Starmer"

    The actor – currently starring in a play lampooning fascism – argues that the PM is doing a good job, but from the press he gets "you'd think he was Vlad the Impaler".

    Listen on the New Society podcast.

    https://x.com/NewStatesman/status/2049217265434812694?s=20

    Tried to get tickets for the Stratford production, but left it a bit late, and they sold out incredible quickly.
    The reviews are excellent - anyone seen it ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,602
    Dopermean said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Taz said:

    This is absolutely right. Certainly for former industrial areas

    People like Rochdale get it.

    The main parties and the PB herd don’t and just demonise the likes of Lucy and ignore the reasons.

    ‘ Think this quote from Lucy who voted Conservative in 2019, Labour in 2024 and is probably voting Green now but would also consider Reform just encapsulates people’s desperation to find some/any party that would bring about the change they so desperately want’

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/2049127363737198934?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    A touch of strawmanning in that argument.
    It's not "demonising" them to point out the likely futility of their choices.

    Many of us are just as frustrated with the efforts of the former duopoly, but we seriously doubt that change brought about by a prospective Reform or Green administration would do anything to improve matters.
    The truth is that it doesn't matter which council you elect next week.

    They will be as broke then as they are now.
    They will have the same statutory duties to hosepipe cash at social care as they do now
    Everything that could possibly be cut has been cut
    Most councillors are normal people and that means many are at best not very good and at worst stupid and malevolent. Which means the officers who are running the council will continue to run the council
    Up to a point.
    The problems are, as you say, intractable and to a fair extent beyond the influence of councillors. But bad councillors can make things a lot worse than a set of competent ones do.
    My local councillors, who'll probably lose control next week, have managed to keep libraries, replace a leisure centre, collect bins and repair the roads while charging £450/year less than the neighbouring council, run by the party who'll probably take over control of my council, who demolished their leisure centre which has been wasteland for 5+ years now and are worse at repairing the roads.

    Both similar areas, the neighbouring council probably collects more in business rates so should be able to do a better job.

    So it can make a significant difference.
    Neither has yet embarked on property speculation thankfully.
    Yes, I can also think of two relatively adjacent Labour councils locally which differ considerably in competence.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 19,649
    Taz said:

    This is absolutely right. Certainly for former industrial areas

    People like Rochdale get it.

    The main parties and the PB herd don’t and just demonise the likes of Lucy and ignore the reasons.

    ‘ Think this quote from Lucy who voted Conservative in 2019, Labour in 2024 and is probably voting Green now but would also consider Reform just encapsulates people’s desperation to find some/any party that would bring about the change they so desperately want’


    https://x.com/luketryl/status/2049127363737198934?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    The UK is still essentially a democracy and that means we broadly get the politics we vote for. If Lucy votes Green or Reform she is voting to make things worse again. If expecting people to be grown-up about their choices counts as "demonising" we're just arguing about vocabulary.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 5,205
    edited April 29
    Battlebus said:

    Seems that voters are dying out. Deaths are expected to outnumber births in the UK every year from 2026, according to projections from the Office for National Statistics (ONS)

    Between mid-2024 and mid-2034, the ONS projects:


    6.4 million people will be born

    6.9 million people will die

    7.3 million will immigrate to the UK on a long-term basis

    5.1 million people will emigrate long-term from the UK




    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckgpjd2zzl8o

    Those stats are 2024 based and depend on an assumption (guesstimate?) that net inward migration will hold up at 230,000 per year over the ten year period.

    In the wake of recent sharp falls and further policy tightening in the last two years there are other studies that suggest that net migration will fall a lot further than that in 2026 and 2027, such that we could come quite close to zero net migration and the overall population could start to fall.

    e.g.
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/feb/14/uk-migration-negative-economy
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,602
    Vance in Munich:
    “So I come here today not just with an observation, but with an offer. And just as the Biden
    administration seemed desperate to silence people for speaking their minds, so the Trump administration will do precisely the opposite, and I hope that we can work together on that.
    In Washington, there is a new sheriff in town. And under Donald Trump’s leadership, we may disagree with your views, but we will fight to defend your right to offer them in the public square.”


    The FCC “is moving toward a review of Disney’s broadcast licenses,” after the Kimmel monologue
    https://x.com/jbillinson/status/2049126118951657505
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,172
    eek said:

    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    Taz said:

    This is absolutely right. Certainly for former industrial areas

    People like Rochdale get it.

    The main parties and the PB herd don’t and just demonise the likes of Lucy and ignore the reasons.

    ‘ Think this quote from Lucy who voted Conservative in 2019, Labour in 2024 and is probably voting Green now but would also consider Reform just encapsulates people’s desperation to find some/any party that would bring about the change they so desperately want’

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/2049127363737198934?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    A touch of strawmanning in that argument.
    It's not "demonising" them to point out the likely futility of their choices.

    Many of us are just as frustrated with the efforts of the former duopoly, but we seriously doubt that change brought about by a prospective Reform or Green administration would do anything to improve matters.
    The truth is that it doesn't matter which council you elect next week.

    They will be as broke then as they are now.
    They will have the same statutory duties to hosepipe cash at social care as they do now
    Everything that could possibly be cut has been cut
    Most councillors are normal people and that means many are at best not very good and at worst stupid and malevolent. Which means the officers who are running the council will continue to run the council
    The one thing a reform council may do is as with Durham not raise council tax to much this year, so creating a bigger problem down the line
    ISTR Reform candidates promising to cut council tax. Its easy. Simply scrap DEI and return the cash to the people.
    Except DEI costs are roughly less than sod all - as its day to day HR work.

    Curiously one of the big things Reform are attacking Labour on in South Tyneside is a £28,000 event to reward staff for doing work above and beyond duty.

    Yes it’s £28,000 that could be saved but I bet that type of reward generates £x00,000 of free Labour that otherwise would need to be paid for or not get done

    And it’s removing thank yous like this that results in the better workers leaving
    Curious bit of DEI this week. We were informed of Lesbian Awareness day. I find this amusing as anyone who has ever visited certain kinds of website will be fully aware of lesbians.*

    *So I'm told.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,193

    Good morning

    Charlie saves the day is not what I expected to write this am but he absolutely has

    His speeches were clever, witty, and won over America

    At the same time he put Trump in the shadows, and showed Starmer you do not need to fawn over Trump to win your argument

    After some reflection one thing I realised about Charlie's speech is that he didn't mention Trump at all. He talked to America about the relationship between Britain and America.

    It was perfect. It makes it easier to imagine a time in the future when Trump is history.
  • eekeek Posts: 33,909
    Nigelb said:

    I quite like Gatiss but this post and replies aren't a bad illustration of the state we're in, inlcuding Graham 'extremely divorced' Linehanan immediately crowbarring in his obsessions.

    The New Statesman
    @NewStatesman
    Mark Gatiss: "I don't understand the antipathy towards Keir Starmer"

    The actor – currently starring in a play lampooning fascism – argues that the PM is doing a good job, but from the press he gets "you'd think he was Vlad the Impaler".

    Listen on the New Society podcast.

    https://x.com/NewStatesman/status/2049217265434812694?s=20

    Tried to get tickets for the Stratford production, but left it a bit late, and they sold out incredible quickly.
    The reviews are excellent - anyone seen it ?
    Twickets is you friend if you want a ticket to a show that’s sold out or hard ish to get.

    Think the only thing I couldn’t get a ticket for was Radiohead at o2
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,857

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    Taz said:

    This is absolutely right. Certainly for former industrial areas

    People like Rochdale get it.

    The main parties and the PB herd don’t and just demonise the likes of Lucy and ignore the reasons.

    ‘ Think this quote from Lucy who voted Conservative in 2019, Labour in 2024 and is probably voting Green now but would also consider Reform just encapsulates people’s desperation to find some/any party that would bring about the change they so desperately want’

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/2049127363737198934?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    A touch of strawmanning in that argument.
    It's not "demonising" them to point out the likely futility of their choices.

    Many of us are just as frustrated with the efforts of the former duopoly, but we seriously doubt that change brought about by a prospective Reform or Green administration would do anything to improve matters.
    The truth is that it doesn't matter which council you elect next week.

    They will be as broke then as they are now.
    They will have the same statutory duties to hosepipe cash at social care as they do now
    Everything that could possibly be cut has been cut
    Most councillors are normal people and that means many are at best not very good and at worst stupid and malevolent. Which means the officers who are running the council will continue to run the council
    The one thing a reform council may do is as with Durham not raise council tax to much this year, so creating a bigger problem down the line
    ISTR Reform candidates promising to cut council tax. Its easy. Simply scrap DEI and return the cash to the people.
    Except DEI costs are roughly less than sod all - as its day to day HR work.

    Curiously one of the big things Reform are attacking Labour on in South Tyneside is a £28,000 event to reward staff for doing work above and beyond duty.

    Yes it’s £28,000 that could be saved but I bet that type of reward generates £x00,000 of free Labour that otherwise would need to be paid for or not get done

    And it’s removing thank yous like this that results in the better workers leaving
    Curious bit of DEI this week. We were informed of Lesbian Awareness day. I find this amusing as anyone who has ever visited certain kinds of website will be fully aware of lesbians.*

    *So I'm told.
    On that topic I see the first female CEO of BP is LGBT with a wife and teenage daughter
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meg_O'Neill
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,351
    Either Steve Reed (Housing minister) has now firmly ruled out this madness about introducing rent control or he is out of the loop and this clip is going to make him look completely wrong in a month or so's time.

    Times Radio
    @TimesRadio

    “I've just been crystal clear: we’re not doing it."

    Housing secretary Steve Reed rules out a rent freeze on private homes.

    @SteveReedMP
    |
    @KateEMcCann

    https://x.com/TimesRadio/status/2049380049430749288
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,193
    Nigelb said:

    Interesting thread.
    I hadn't realised the pervasive extent of the Chinese influence in occupied Ukraine.

    China is rebuilding how occupied Ukrainian territories function — step by step.

    It installs 6,000 Huawei base stations, replaces dollars with yuan, and keeps factories running with Chinese engineers. no ownership, no formal role, but everything depends on Chinese tech...

    https://x.com/Mylovanov/status/2049205660311499157

    That's a bad sign. China isn't going to want to lose that investment. How much help are they prepared to provide Russia to help them hang onto it?
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 3,133
    FF43 said:

    Taz said:

    This is absolutely right. Certainly for former industrial areas

    People like Rochdale get it.

    The main parties and the PB herd don’t and just demonise the likes of Lucy and ignore the reasons.

    ‘ Think this quote from Lucy who voted Conservative in 2019, Labour in 2024 and is probably voting Green now but would also consider Reform just encapsulates people’s desperation to find some/any party that would bring about the change they so desperately want’


    https://x.com/luketryl/status/2049127363737198934?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    The UK is still essentially a democracy and that means we broadly get the politics we vote for. If Lucy votes Green or Reform she is voting to make things worse again. If expecting people to be grown-up about their choices counts as "demonising" we're just arguing about vocabulary.
    A better example would be people in the NE voting to stiff Nissan, politicians do the hard work on regeneration and the voters burn it down.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 81,139

    Battlebus said:

    Seems that voters are dying out. Deaths are expected to outnumber births in the UK every year from 2026, according to projections from the Office for National Statistics (ONS)

    Between mid-2024 and mid-2034, the ONS projects:


    6.4 million people will be born

    6.9 million people will die

    7.3 million will immigrate to the UK on a long-term basis

    5.1 million people will emigrate long-term from the UK




    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckgpjd2zzl8o

    Those stats are 2024 based and depend on an assumption (guesstimate?) that net inward migration will hold up at 230,000 per year over the ten year period.

    In the wake of recent sharp falls and further policy tightening in the last two years there are other studies that suggest that net migration will fall a lot further than that in 2026 and 2027, such that we could come quite close to zero net migration and the overall population could start to fall.

    e.g.
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/feb/14/uk-migration-negative-economy
    The horror of falling (In real terms) house prices :D
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,193
    Sandpit said:

    Not just Tuapse on fire, Perm is also on fire again.

    https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/2049374465402745281
    https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/2049378492358316235
    https://x.com/jayinkyiv/status/2049373426704433201

    This is a key pumping station node and refinery on a pipeline, 1,000 miles from Ukraine.

    Unusually it looks like a Ukrainian attack on a refinery failed with drones falling short of the refinery in Orsk.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,602
    Barney Frank, entering hospice care, embarks on a final act: Taking on the left
    The former Massachusetts lawmaker says progressives in his party have “embraced an agenda that goes beyond what’s politically acceptable.”

    https://www.politico.com/news/2026/04/28/barney-frank-hospice-democrats-00897112?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
    “One of my regrets,” he said, “is that I won’t see the continued implosion of [President] Donald Trump.”
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,424
    HYUFD said:

    Reform are obviously going to win most seats next week, they lead every poll. However I think Labour will still scrape second on seats won and councils won, Labour still lead in most London polls and every London council seat is up and in the Birmingham poll yesterday Labour were just ahead. In Scotland Labour are also neck and neck with Reform for second on MSPs won and even in Wales most polls have Labour beating the Tories still even if behind Plaid and Reform.

    Third place on seats won will be close between the Conservatives, LDs and Greens. On NEV the Conservatives should still come at least third, maybe even second based on their current polling. Remember though most shire counties ie the Tory heartlands, voted last year and don't have seats up this year and nor do most district and unitary councils in rural and market and commuter towns either where the Conservatives do best, they are next up next year. Instead it is the big cities like London and Manchester and Birmingham where Labour and the Greens will do best which are almost all holding council elections this year. Even the few county councils that are holding delayed elections this year eg Essex, Norfolk and Hampshire will likely see big Tory seat losses to Reform and in Hampshire and Surrey the LDs will likely beat the Conservatives on seats too.

    The nightmare for Kemi therefore is the Tories end up 5th on seats and councils won behind not only Reform and Labour but even behind the Greens and LDs as well. That would purely be because of the seats up mainly so in my view she should be judged on what the estimated NEV would be UK wide based on votes cast not on the actual seats and councils won

    The LibDems stand a chance of coming top in terms of councils controlled, out of those with all-up elections next week; achieving that rests upon the many Labour ones in London and other cities going NOC
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 47,891
    Despite all the normal, nice guy schtick, I'm getting the distinct impression that Ed Balls may be a bit of an arsehole.

    Philip Proudfoot
    @PhilipProudfoot
    “I spoke to my wife the Foreign Secretary” — how much longer do we have to put up with the insanity of Ed Balls — former Labour cabinet minister — “impartially” presenting the news, while also being married to Yvette Cooper?

    It’s such a joke.

    https://x.com/PhilipProudfoot/status/2049396070636048757?s=20
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,193
    edited April 29

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    Taz said:

    This is absolutely right. Certainly for former industrial areas

    People like Rochdale get it.

    The main parties and the PB herd don’t and just demonise the likes of Lucy and ignore the reasons.

    ‘ Think this quote from Lucy who voted Conservative in 2019, Labour in 2024 and is probably voting Green now but would also consider Reform just encapsulates people’s desperation to find some/any party that would bring about the change they so desperately want’

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/2049127363737198934?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    A touch of strawmanning in that argument.
    It's not "demonising" them to point out the likely futility of their choices.

    Many of us are just as frustrated with the efforts of the former duopoly, but we seriously doubt that change brought about by a prospective Reform or Green administration would do anything to improve matters.
    The truth is that it doesn't matter which council you elect next week.

    They will be as broke then as they are now.
    They will have the same statutory duties to hosepipe cash at social care as they do now
    Everything that could possibly be cut has been cut
    Most councillors are normal people and that means many are at best not very good and at worst stupid and malevolent. Which means the officers who are running the council will continue to run the council
    The one thing a reform council may do is as with Durham not raise council tax to much this year, so creating a bigger problem down the line
    ISTR Reform candidates promising to cut council tax. Its easy. Simply scrap DEI and return the cash to the people.
    Except DEI costs are roughly less than sod all - as its day to day HR work.

    Curiously one of the big things Reform are attacking Labour on in South Tyneside is a £28,000 event to reward staff for doing work above and beyond duty.

    Yes it’s £28,000 that could be saved but I bet that type of reward generates £x00,000 of free Labour that otherwise would need to be paid for or not get done

    And it’s removing thank yous like this that results in the better workers leaving
    Curious bit of DEI this week. We were informed of Lesbian Awareness day. I find this amusing as anyone who has ever visited certain kinds of website will be fully aware of lesbians.*

    *So I'm told.
    I'd guess part of the awareness you might be missing is that lesbians are ordinary people and not just wankfodder.

    Combined with the grotesque discussion on here about Trump's mother finding KCIII cute the other day and it does feel like some posters are determined to ensure the number of women contributing to PB.com is minimised.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 47,891
    Nigelb said:

    Barney Frank, entering hospice care, embarks on a final act: Taking on the left
    The former Massachusetts lawmaker says progressives in his party have “embraced an agenda that goes beyond what’s politically acceptable.”

    https://www.politico.com/news/2026/04/28/barney-frank-hospice-democrats-00897112?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
    “One of my regrets,” he said, “is that I won’t see the continued implosion of [President] Donald Trump.”

    I feel he may be missing the bigger picture whan it comes to who has embraced an agenda that goes beyond what’s politically acceptable.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 22,860

    Despite all the normal, nice guy schtick, I'm getting the distinct impression that Ed Balls may be a bit of an arsehole.

    Philip Proudfoot
    @PhilipProudfoot
    “I spoke to my wife the Foreign Secretary” — how much longer do we have to put up with the insanity of Ed Balls — former Labour cabinet minister — “impartially” presenting the news, while also being married to Yvette Cooper?

    It’s such a joke.

    https://x.com/PhilipProudfoot/status/2049396070636048757?s=20

    So his pre-Strictly public image was right all along, then.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 20,932

    Foxy said:

    Reform will probably come first, but I am not tempted.

    It is an anti-Labour, anti-Tory wave of anger, and there is a new kid on the block. Faragism is looking increasingly dog-earred.

    The question is whether the locals give Reform another boost or if the decline will continue

    The elections last year undoubtedly confirmed they had arrived on the scene and gave them a huge opportunity - an opportunity I would suggest they have only half capitalised on. While they still lead the polls they have not been able to demonstrate the seriousness of organisation or advance their popularity with sensible well thought out policy making, that could have seen them boosted into the high 30s. Instead they’ve gone backwards.

    I suspect they might get another chance in the coming months and a slight poll recovery, though knowing what we do now I suspect they’ll miss the chance to fully capitalise on it again.

    Watch the Greens - particularly if Starmer remains in situ. While I think they’ll end up suffering the same problem as Reform and I don’t expect this to be long term, I think it’s plausible these results give them a similar boost which could see them leading a couple of polls.
    Both Reform and the Greens have done stunningly well in psephological terms, breaking the traditional 2.5-party system and getting to 20-25% of the vote. This is very impressive and something many other parties have failed to do.

    And yet there's a paradoxical dichotomy because that huge success is also falling short. What these parties want is to get to where the Tories and Labour used to be, winning elections on >40% of the vote.

    Reform both lead the polls, yet also are polling worse than the losers, that is HM Opposition, got in most general elections.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 20,932

    Nigelb said:

    Taz said:

    This is absolutely right. Certainly for former industrial areas

    People like Rochdale get it.

    The main parties and the PB herd don’t and just demonise the likes of Lucy and ignore the reasons.

    ‘ Think this quote from Lucy who voted Conservative in 2019, Labour in 2024 and is probably voting Green now but would also consider Reform just encapsulates people’s desperation to find some/any party that would bring about the change they so desperately want’

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/2049127363737198934?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    A touch of strawmanning in that argument.
    It's not "demonising" them to point out the likely futility of their choices.

    Many of us are just as frustrated with the efforts of the former duopoly, but we seriously doubt that change brought about by a prospective Reform or Green administration would do anything to improve matters.
    The truth is that it doesn't matter which council you elect next week.

    They will be as broke then as they are now.
    They will have the same statutory duties to hosepipe cash at social care as they do now
    Everything that could possibly be cut has been cut
    Most councillors are normal people and that means many are at best not very good and at worst stupid and malevolent. Which means the officers who are running the council will continue to run the council
    I am sorry but that is defeatist and all too popular an answer from political centrist class these days as to why nothing can change
    I think it's more a reflection of how little power local government has. At Westminster, you can make a change. At Holyrood too.
  • Foxy said:

    Reform will probably come first, but I am not tempted.

    It is an anti-Labour, anti-Tory wave of anger, and there is a new kid on the block. Faragism is looking increasingly dog-earred.

    The question is whether the locals give Reform another boost or if the decline will continue

    The elections last year undoubtedly confirmed they had arrived on the scene and gave them a huge opportunity - an opportunity I would suggest they have only half capitalised on. While they still lead the polls they have not been able to demonstrate the seriousness of organisation or advance their popularity with sensible well thought out policy making, that could have seen them boosted into the high 30s. Instead they’ve gone backwards.

    I suspect they might get another chance in the coming months and a slight poll recovery, though knowing what we do now I suspect they’ll miss the chance to fully capitalise on it again.

    Watch the Greens - particularly if Starmer remains in situ. While I think they’ll end up suffering the same problem as Reform and I don’t expect this to be long term, I think it’s plausible these results give them a similar boost which could see them leading a couple of polls.
    Both Reform and the Greens have done stunningly well in psephological terms, breaking the traditional 2.5-party system and getting to 20-25% of the vote. This is very impressive and something many other parties have failed to do.

    And yet there's a paradoxical dichotomy because that huge success is also falling short. What these parties want is to get to where the Tories and Labour used to be, winning elections on >40% of the vote.

    Reform both lead the polls, yet also are polling worse than the losers, that is HM Opposition, got in most general elections.
    Leading polls in midterms is worth absolutely bugger all unless that transfers to votes at the actual election. Just ask the Alliance, or EICIPM.

    At the next election I expect voters to coalesce around one option and give them a majority, but it is too early to say which option it will be. Gun to the head, I suspect it will be Labour as people abandon the Greens and vote for the Government to stop Reform, but it could be just about anyone apart from the Lib Dems as it stands.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,424

    Foxy said:

    Reform will probably come first, but I am not tempted.

    It is an anti-Labour, anti-Tory wave of anger, and there is a new kid on the block. Faragism is looking increasingly dog-earred.

    The question is whether the locals give Reform another boost or if the decline will continue

    The elections last year undoubtedly confirmed they had arrived on the scene and gave them a huge opportunity - an opportunity I would suggest they have only half capitalised on. While they still lead the polls they have not been able to demonstrate the seriousness of organisation or advance their popularity with sensible well thought out policy making, that could have seen them boosted into the high 30s. Instead they’ve gone backwards.

    I suspect they might get another chance in the coming months and a slight poll recovery, though knowing what we do now I suspect they’ll miss the chance to fully capitalise on it again.

    Watch the Greens - particularly if Starmer remains in situ. While I think they’ll end up suffering the same problem as Reform and I don’t expect this to be long term, I think it’s plausible these results give them a similar boost which could see them leading a couple of polls.
    Both Reform and the Greens have done stunningly well in psephological terms, breaking the traditional 2.5-party system and getting to 20-25% of the vote. This is very impressive and something many other parties have failed to do.

    And yet there's a paradoxical dichotomy because that huge success is also falling short. What these parties want is to get to where the Tories and Labour used to be, winning elections on >40% of the vote.

    Reform both lead the polls, yet also are polling worse than the losers, that is HM Opposition, got in most general elections.
    FPTP is like running away from that tiger - it doesn't matter how fast you are provided you beat the others.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 8,258

    Sandpit said:

    Not just Tuapse on fire, Perm is also on fire again.

    https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/2049374465402745281
    https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/2049378492358316235
    https://x.com/jayinkyiv/status/2049373426704433201

    This is a key pumping station node and refinery on a pipeline, 1,000 miles from Ukraine.

    Unusually it looks like a Ukrainian attack on a refinery failed with drones falling short of the refinery in Orsk.
    We quite likely don't know how many attacks fail. We just see the smoke and flame from those that succeed.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 22,860

    Nigelb said:

    Taz said:

    This is absolutely right. Certainly for former industrial areas

    People like Rochdale get it.

    The main parties and the PB herd don’t and just demonise the likes of Lucy and ignore the reasons.

    ‘ Think this quote from Lucy who voted Conservative in 2019, Labour in 2024 and is probably voting Green now but would also consider Reform just encapsulates people’s desperation to find some/any party that would bring about the change they so desperately want’

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/2049127363737198934?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    A touch of strawmanning in that argument.
    It's not "demonising" them to point out the likely futility of their choices.

    Many of us are just as frustrated with the efforts of the former duopoly, but we seriously doubt that change brought about by a prospective Reform or Green administration would do anything to improve matters.
    The truth is that it doesn't matter which council you elect next week.

    They will be as broke then as they are now.
    They will have the same statutory duties to hosepipe cash at social care as they do now
    Everything that could possibly be cut has been cut
    Most councillors are normal people and that means many are at best not very good and at worst stupid and malevolent. Which means the officers who are running the council will continue to run the council
    I am sorry but that is defeatist and all too popular an answer from political centrist class these days as to why nothing can change
    No no, things can absolutely change. If I was installed as leader of Sunderland City Council (as an example) I'd focus on street furniture and cleansing. Have people out there ripping up weeds and filling in the cracks in the pavement and filling in potholes. Get the heritage officer producing info boards showcasing the proud history and heritage of the city and the surrounding towns like Houghton-le-Spring where I lived 20 years ago.

    There's a lot that can be done to lift the mood. But nothing that can be done to fix the budget deficit which will be worse every single year. The Big Picture is where councils are powerless. Which is where you need a canny leader to be smashing that message out there on social media, finding ways to show people very simply what the problem is.
    And that's where I'm pretty sure that there's a gap between what the people voting Reform out of despair want and what Reform will give them.

    A key reason that we all feel rubbish is that we live in places that look and feel rubbish. Surroundings are fixable- it just takes money, for preference money that can't be absorbed by social care. But when push comes to shove, Reform would rather vote for lower (or less higher) taxes; I'm pretty sure the collective happiness that results is lower.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 5,542

    Nigelb said:

    Taz said:

    This is absolutely right. Certainly for former industrial areas

    People like Rochdale get it.

    The main parties and the PB herd don’t and just demonise the likes of Lucy and ignore the reasons.

    ‘ Think this quote from Lucy who voted Conservative in 2019, Labour in 2024 and is probably voting Green now but would also consider Reform just encapsulates people’s desperation to find some/any party that would bring about the change they so desperately want’

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/2049127363737198934?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    A touch of strawmanning in that argument.
    It's not "demonising" them to point out the likely futility of their choices.

    Many of us are just as frustrated with the efforts of the former duopoly, but we seriously doubt that change brought about by a prospective Reform or Green administration would do anything to improve matters.
    The truth is that it doesn't matter which council you elect next week.

    They will be as broke then as they are now.
    They will have the same statutory duties to hosepipe cash at social care as they do now
    Everything that could possibly be cut has been cut
    Most councillors are normal people and that means many are at best not very good and at worst stupid and malevolent. Which means the officers who are running the council will continue to run the council
    I am sorry but that is defeatist and all too popular an answer from political centrist class these days as to why nothing can change
    I think it's more a reflection of how little power local government has. At Westminster, you can make a change. At Holyrood too.
    I disagree. Councils and Councillors can only administer the money they get from central government. Social services, and education are mandated from central government so they can't do anything about it. It seems that councillors are just targets for citizens to take out their annoyances on from national government. I toyed with the idea a year ago to stand for the council, but it seems whatever you do and however hard you work you will win it lose on the basis of parties in Westminster, Cardiff or Edinburgh.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,172

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    Taz said:

    This is absolutely right. Certainly for former industrial areas

    People like Rochdale get it.

    The main parties and the PB herd don’t and just demonise the likes of Lucy and ignore the reasons.

    ‘ Think this quote from Lucy who voted Conservative in 2019, Labour in 2024 and is probably voting Green now but would also consider Reform just encapsulates people’s desperation to find some/any party that would bring about the change they so desperately want’

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/2049127363737198934?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    A touch of strawmanning in that argument.
    It's not "demonising" them to point out the likely futility of their choices.

    Many of us are just as frustrated with the efforts of the former duopoly, but we seriously doubt that change brought about by a prospective Reform or Green administration would do anything to improve matters.
    The truth is that it doesn't matter which council you elect next week.

    They will be as broke then as they are now.
    They will have the same statutory duties to hosepipe cash at social care as they do now
    Everything that could possibly be cut has been cut
    Most councillors are normal people and that means many are at best not very good and at worst stupid and malevolent. Which means the officers who are running the council will continue to run the council
    The one thing a reform council may do is as with Durham not raise council tax to much this year, so creating a bigger problem down the line
    ISTR Reform candidates promising to cut council tax. Its easy. Simply scrap DEI and return the cash to the people.
    Except DEI costs are roughly less than sod all - as its day to day HR work.

    Curiously one of the big things Reform are attacking Labour on in South Tyneside is a £28,000 event to reward staff for doing work above and beyond duty.

    Yes it’s £28,000 that could be saved but I bet that type of reward generates £x00,000 of free Labour that otherwise would need to be paid for or not get done

    And it’s removing thank yous like this that results in the better workers leaving
    Curious bit of DEI this week. We were informed of Lesbian Awareness day. I find this amusing as anyone who has ever visited certain kinds of website will be fully aware of lesbians.*

    *So I'm told.
    I'd guess part of the awareness you might be missing is that lesbians are ordinary people and not just wankfodder.

    Combined with the grotesque discussion on here about Trump's mother finding KCIII cute the other day and it does feel like some posters are determined to ensure the number of women contributing to PB.com is minimised.
    Clearly you didn't install the humour awareness chip this morning.

    That there are few women on PB is mostly a function of betting (mostly a male past-time) and political nerdery (mostly a male past-time, although arguably less so than the betting).
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 8,258
    eek said:

    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    Taz said:

    This is absolutely right. Certainly for former industrial areas

    People like Rochdale get it.

    The main parties and the PB herd don’t and just demonise the likes of Lucy and ignore the reasons.

    ‘ Think this quote from Lucy who voted Conservative in 2019, Labour in 2024 and is probably voting Green now but would also consider Reform just encapsulates people’s desperation to find some/any party that would bring about the change they so desperately want’

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/2049127363737198934?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    A touch of strawmanning in that argument.
    It's not "demonising" them to point out the likely futility of their choices.

    Many of us are just as frustrated with the efforts of the former duopoly, but we seriously doubt that change brought about by a prospective Reform or Green administration would do anything to improve matters.
    The truth is that it doesn't matter which council you elect next week.

    They will be as broke then as they are now.
    They will have the same statutory duties to hosepipe cash at social care as they do now
    Everything that could possibly be cut has been cut
    Most councillors are normal people and that means many are at best not very good and at worst stupid and malevolent. Which means the officers who are running the council will continue to run the council
    The one thing a reform council may do is as with Durham not raise council tax to much this year, so creating a bigger problem down the line
    ISTR Reform candidates promising to cut council tax. Its easy. Simply scrap DEI and return the cash to the people.
    Except DEI costs are roughly less than sod all - as its day to day HR work.

    Curiously one of the big things Reform are attacking Labour on in South Tyneside is a £28,000 event to reward staff for doing work above and beyond duty.

    Yes it’s £28,000 that could be saved but I bet that type of reward generates £x00,000 of free Labour that otherwise would need to be paid for or not get done

    And it’s removing thank yous like this that results in the better workers leaving
    South Tyneside Council employs around 3,000 people, so that is less than a tenner a head. Compare that with the payroll.

    I remember when I worked in a quango, trying to put on a Christmas event for staff. The Daily Mail would publicise everything and everything and say how shameful it is. Yet there is a special provision in tax law, you can treat your staff up to a certain amount tax free (used to be £80 a head) and the morning after an event that probably cost £20-30 per head the increase in motivation and engagement was palpable.

    Unfortunately no-one ever challenged the mail, pointing out that this is actually good value for money and publicising how much their employer spent on them, the hypocrites
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,172
    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Reform will probably come first, but I am not tempted.

    It is an anti-Labour, anti-Tory wave of anger, and there is a new kid on the block. Faragism is looking increasingly dog-earred.

    The question is whether the locals give Reform another boost or if the decline will continue

    The elections last year undoubtedly confirmed they had arrived on the scene and gave them a huge opportunity - an opportunity I would suggest they have only half capitalised on. While they still lead the polls they have not been able to demonstrate the seriousness of organisation or advance their popularity with sensible well thought out policy making, that could have seen them boosted into the high 30s. Instead they’ve gone backwards.

    I suspect they might get another chance in the coming months and a slight poll recovery, though knowing what we do now I suspect they’ll miss the chance to fully capitalise on it again.

    Watch the Greens - particularly if Starmer remains in situ. While I think they’ll end up suffering the same problem as Reform and I don’t expect this to be long term, I think it’s plausible these results give them a similar boost which could see them leading a couple of polls.
    Both Reform and the Greens have done stunningly well in psephological terms, breaking the traditional 2.5-party system and getting to 20-25% of the vote. This is very impressive and something many other parties have failed to do.

    And yet there's a paradoxical dichotomy because that huge success is also falling short. What these parties want is to get to where the Tories and Labour used to be, winning elections on >40% of the vote.

    Reform both lead the polls, yet also are polling worse than the losers, that is HM Opposition, got in most general elections.
    FPTP is like running away from that tiger - it doesn't matter how fast you are provided you beat the others.
    My friend used to love telling the story of his jeep breaking down when on safari and him telling the fat Americans all around him that he wasn't worried about the lions. The tour guide was in hysterics.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,424

    Nigelb said:

    Taz said:

    This is absolutely right. Certainly for former industrial areas

    People like Rochdale get it.

    The main parties and the PB herd don’t and just demonise the likes of Lucy and ignore the reasons.

    ‘ Think this quote from Lucy who voted Conservative in 2019, Labour in 2024 and is probably voting Green now but would also consider Reform just encapsulates people’s desperation to find some/any party that would bring about the change they so desperately want’

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/2049127363737198934?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    A touch of strawmanning in that argument.
    It's not "demonising" them to point out the likely futility of their choices.

    Many of us are just as frustrated with the efforts of the former duopoly, but we seriously doubt that change brought about by a prospective Reform or Green administration would do anything to improve matters.
    The truth is that it doesn't matter which council you elect next week.

    They will be as broke then as they are now.
    They will have the same statutory duties to hosepipe cash at social care as they do now
    Everything that could possibly be cut has been cut
    Most councillors are normal people and that means many are at best not very good and at worst stupid and malevolent. Which means the officers who are running the council will continue to run the council
    I am sorry but that is defeatist and all too popular an answer from political centrist class these days as to why nothing can change
    I think it's more a reflection of how little power local government has. At Westminster, you can make a change. At Holyrood too.
    I disagree. Councils and Councillors can only administer the money they get from central government. Social services, and education are mandated from central government so they can't do anything about it. It seems that councillors are just targets for citizens to take out their annoyances on from national government. I toyed with the idea a year ago to stand for the council, but it seems whatever you do and however hard you work you will win it lose on the basis of parties in Westminster, Cardiff or Edinburgh.
    That used to be true for the major parties, especially if you're looking to spend most of your time in the town hall rather than working in your patch, but it isn't necessarily so as an independent or councillor for a smaller party. I was elected six times in my London patch as a LibDem, with the post-coalition election of 2014 being the most difficult I fought; we didn't get our new colleague elected that time but the two of us restanding did manage to get back in, on the back of our local track record.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 5,542
    IanB2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Taz said:

    This is absolutely right. Certainly for former industrial areas

    People like Rochdale get it.

    The main parties and the PB herd don’t and just demonise the likes of Lucy and ignore the reasons.

    ‘ Think this quote from Lucy who voted Conservative in 2019, Labour in 2024 and is probably voting Green now but would also consider Reform just encapsulates people’s desperation to find some/any party that would bring about the change they so desperately want’

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/2049127363737198934?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    A touch of strawmanning in that argument.
    It's not "demonising" them to point out the likely futility of their choices.

    Many of us are just as frustrated with the efforts of the former duopoly, but we seriously doubt that change brought about by a prospective Reform or Green administration would do anything to improve matters.
    The truth is that it doesn't matter which council you elect next week.

    They will be as broke then as they are now.
    They will have the same statutory duties to hosepipe cash at social care as they do now
    Everything that could possibly be cut has been cut
    Most councillors are normal people and that means many are at best not very good and at worst stupid and malevolent. Which means the officers who are running the council will continue to run the council
    I am sorry but that is defeatist and all too popular an answer from political centrist class these days as to why nothing can change
    I think it's more a reflection of how little power local government has. At Westminster, you can make a change. At Holyrood too.
    I disagree. Councils and Councillors can only administer the money they get from central government. Social services, and education are mandated from central government so they can't do anything about it. It seems that councillors are just targets for citizens to take out their annoyances on from national government. I toyed with the idea a year ago to stand for the council, but it seems whatever you do and however hard you work you will win it lose on the basis of parties in Westminster, Cardiff or Edinburgh.
    That used to be true for the major parties, especially if you're looking to spend most of your time in the town hall rather than working in your patch, but it isn't necessarily so as an independent or councillor for a smaller party. I was elected six times in my London patch as a LibDem, with the post-coalition election of 2014 being the most difficult I fought; we didn't get our new colleague elected that time but the two of us restanding did manage to get back in, on the back of our local track record.
    It may depend a lot on where your home is.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,375

    FPT:
    MarqueeMark said:

    Another 1,180 Russian troops and 54 artillery systems unavaible to parade in Red Square as of yesterday.

    On another victory parade metric, the Russian soldiers lost in Ukraine in April alone - 31,150 with two days to go - if they were in groups of 10 x 10, would compromise 311 such "squares". They would take some 45 minutes to march past Putin...

    If they were White Walkers.

    Trouble is, if you lost 25 million countrymen during the Great Patriotic War, losing tens of thousands now is merely unfortunate.
    The Great Patriotic War was not a war of choice - it was an existential threat from the Nazis.

    Despite trying to brand it as such, it is widely understood within Russia that the Ukraine SMO was Putin's own land-grab. The better parallel is with Afghanistan, where far, far fewer casualties ground down any support for that adventure.

    And this one is trashing the Russian economy as Ukraine has fought dirty - by blowing up Russia as a gas station.
    The Russian birth rate is something like 100k a month.

    If they are losing 30k troops a month, that’s about half the number of male children born.

    And they are already in a demographic crisis.
    It iwll be 34,000 this month. Which is 2/3rds of male births.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,375

    Sandpit said:

    On topic, Farage with a nostalgic walk around a record shop.

    https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/2048810375832023175

    This is how you do negative political advertising, not what Labour did.

    Not hitting the Tories, Nige? Focus groups not so impressed with that maybe?
    He had Straight out of commons/compton for Kemi. Wonder what made him think of that.
    Just a racist dig with the N word - for those who know the NWA album.
    It is excellent dog whistling to be fair, if she complains it will be a mix of she cant take a joke and its the complainers mind thats sick to have made that link that never occurred at all to colour blind Nigel himself.
    Just because your supporters are that pig-shit thick Nige, don't assume the rest of us haters are...
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 22,097
    algarkirk said:

    Taz said:

    This is absolutely right. Certainly for former industrial areas

    People like Rochdale get it.

    The main parties and the PB herd don’t and just demonise the likes of Lucy and ignore the reasons.

    ‘ Think this quote from Lucy who voted Conservative in 2019, Labour in 2024 and is probably voting Green now but would also consider Reform just encapsulates people’s desperation to find some/any party that would bring about the change they so desperately want’


    https://x.com/luketryl/status/2049127363737198934?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    But what do people actually want? “Change” is meaningless in of itself. I wish we had a proper grown up debate on the change people actually want to see and the realistic avenues of getting there (with the positives and negatives of each course of action). Instead we have charlatans pretending that the course is easy and the reason everything is not perfect is because of malice.
    Yes. Voting for a different party every time chasing a rainbow is a symptom of a deeper thing. The largest issue is the lack of courage from the traditional parties to explain and plan and acknowledge the gigantic common ground, which leads people to drift to even less honest and even more divisive parties.

    In turn this seems to affect the calibre of people wanting to enter the House of Commons. I suppose most of my life I have thought it's an honour and privilege to be an MP. Now I feel sorry for those MPs bright enough to realise how much they have sold out and been betrayed, and collectively betrayed us.

    Not long ago I could and did vote for Rory. Once upon a time Willie Whitelaw. I don't think Rory wants to go back there. I don't blame him. Can I remember the name of my MP now? Not offhand.

    A note for balance. As MP for Broxtowe for 13 years (up to 2010), I never found people as cynical or full of expectations as you describe current MPs. I could solve about half the issues that they raised and I think got credit for a serious effort from most of the others. I'm not really convinced it's changed all that much. Very political people were keenly interested in how I voted in Parliament, but the majority weren't all that interested. I did reasonably good work on Select Committees (Treasury, Foreign Affirs) and had a pleasant and interesting time as PPS to Malcolm Wicks. I spent nearly every weekend calling on people and asking their opinions and rang every doorbell in the constituency two or three times. Broxtowe is very mixed, from extremely wealthy to very poor (ex-mining).

    In retrospect I regret not spending more time specialising in a specific subject, and revolting on it as required, but I was always conscious of holding what felt like - and was - a traditional Conservative seat (Jim Lester had held it with huge majorities), so working locally seemed right. I *never* encountered hostility beyond a "not interested", or felt in the slightest at risk canvassing even the roughest areas on my own. I've no real idea if I was lucky, things have changed, or if the focus on the worst cases has obscured the basic affability of the average voter.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,750
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The line of Succession

    SOVEREIGN

    1. The Prince of Wales

    2. Prince George of Wales

    3. Princess Charlotte of Wales

    4. Prince Louis of Wales

    5. The Duke of Sussex

    6. Prince Archie of Sussex

    7. Princess Lilibet of Sussex

    8. Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor

    And I'm supposed to believe that this is God's will? Whereas God didn't bother to let us know his opinion about say global warming or the second world war?
    Neither of those were in the Bible, God anointing Kings like David and Solomon was
    God doesn't exist!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,506

    FPT:
    MarqueeMark said:

    Another 1,180 Russian troops and 54 artillery systems unavaible to parade in Red Square as of yesterday.

    On another victory parade metric, the Russian soldiers lost in Ukraine in April alone - 31,150 with two days to go - if they were in groups of 10 x 10, would compromise 311 such "squares". They would take some 45 minutes to march past Putin...

    If they were White Walkers.

    Trouble is, if you lost 25 million countrymen during the Great Patriotic War, losing tens of thousands now is merely unfortunate.
    The Great Patriotic War was not a war of choice - it was an existential threat from the Nazis.

    Despite trying to brand it as such, it is widely understood within Russia that the Ukraine SMO was Putin's own land-grab. The better parallel is with Afghanistan, where far, far fewer casualties ground down any support for that adventure.

    And this one is trashing the Russian economy as Ukraine has fought dirty - by blowing up Russia as a gas station.
    The Russian birth rate is something like 100k a month.

    If they are losing 30k troops a month, that’s about half the number of male children born.

    And they are already in a demographic crisis.
    It iwll be 34,000 this month. Which is 2/3rds of male births.
    If you want grim, read the interview with the Ukrainian drone forces commander.

    They have a target number for killing Russian troops.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,506

    FPT:
    MarqueeMark said:

    Another 1,180 Russian troops and 54 artillery systems unavaible to parade in Red Square as of yesterday.

    On another victory parade metric, the Russian soldiers lost in Ukraine in April alone - 31,150 with two days to go - if they were in groups of 10 x 10, would compromise 311 such "squares". They would take some 45 minutes to march past Putin...

    If they were White Walkers.

    Trouble is, if you lost 25 million countrymen during the Great Patriotic War, losing tens of thousands now is merely unfortunate.
    The Great Patriotic War was not a war of choice - it was an existential threat from the Nazis.

    Despite trying to brand it as such, it is widely understood within Russia that the Ukraine SMO was Putin's own land-grab. The better parallel is with Afghanistan, where far, far fewer casualties ground down any support for that adventure.

    And this one is trashing the Russian economy as Ukraine has fought dirty - by blowing up Russia as a gas station.
    The Russian birth rate is something like 100k a month.

    If they are losing 30k troops a month, that’s about half the number of male children born.

    And they are already in a demographic crisis.
    It iwll be 34,000 this month. Which is 2/3rds of male births.
    If you want grim, read the interview with the Ukrainian drone forces commander.

    They have a target number for killing Russian troops.
  • Good morning

    Charlie saves the day is not what I expected to write this am but he absolutely has

    His speeches were clever, witty, and won over America

    At the same time he put Trump in the shadows, and showed Starmer you do not need to fawn over Trump to win your argument

    After some reflection one thing I realised about Charlie's speech is that he didn't mention Trump at all. He talked to America about the relationship between Britain and America.

    It was perfect. It makes it easier to imagine a time in the future when Trump is history.
    Just don't understand the fawning for the Royals..all of this will be forgotten in the light of the local election results and when Trump invades Cuba..😏
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,172

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The line of Succession

    SOVEREIGN

    1. The Prince of Wales

    2. Prince George of Wales

    3. Princess Charlotte of Wales

    4. Prince Louis of Wales

    5. The Duke of Sussex

    6. Prince Archie of Sussex

    7. Princess Lilibet of Sussex

    8. Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor

    And I'm supposed to believe that this is God's will? Whereas God didn't bother to let us know his opinion about say global warming or the second world war?
    Neither of those were in the Bible, God anointing Kings like David and Solomon was
    God doesn't exist!
    Watch it Sunil - if he/she does they might smite you.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,750

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The line of Succession

    SOVEREIGN

    1. The Prince of Wales

    2. Prince George of Wales

    3. Princess Charlotte of Wales

    4. Prince Louis of Wales

    5. The Duke of Sussex

    6. Prince Archie of Sussex

    7. Princess Lilibet of Sussex

    8. Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor

    And I'm supposed to believe that this is God's will? Whereas God didn't bother to let us know his opinion about say global warming or the second world war?
    Neither of those were in the Bible, God anointing Kings like David and Solomon was
    God doesn't exist!
    Watch it Sunil - if he/she does they might smite you.
    How can they if they don't exist?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,936

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The line of Succession

    SOVEREIGN

    1. The Prince of Wales

    2. Prince George of Wales

    3. Princess Charlotte of Wales

    4. Prince Louis of Wales

    5. The Duke of Sussex

    6. Prince Archie of Sussex

    7. Princess Lilibet of Sussex

    8. Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor

    And I'm supposed to believe that this is God's will? Whereas God didn't bother to let us know his opinion about say global warming or the second world war?
    Neither of those were in the Bible, God anointing Kings like David and Solomon was
    God doesn't exist!
    Watch it Sunil - if he/she does they might smite you.
    How can they if they don't exist?
    Tell that to the Aztecs facing the Conquistadors.....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,673

    FPT:
    MarqueeMark said:

    Another 1,180 Russian troops and 54 artillery systems unavaible to parade in Red Square as of yesterday.

    On another victory parade metric, the Russian soldiers lost in Ukraine in April alone - 31,150 with two days to go - if they were in groups of 10 x 10, would compromise 311 such "squares". They would take some 45 minutes to march past Putin...

    If they were White Walkers.

    Trouble is, if you lost 25 million countrymen during the Great Patriotic War, losing tens of thousands now is merely unfortunate.
    The Great Patriotic War was not a war of choice - it was an existential threat from the Nazis.

    Despite trying to brand it as such, it is widely understood within Russia that the Ukraine SMO was Putin's own land-grab. The better parallel is with Afghanistan, where far, far fewer casualties ground down any support for that adventure.

    And this one is trashing the Russian economy as Ukraine has fought dirty - by blowing up Russia as a gas station.
    The Russian birth rate is something like 100k a month.

    If they are losing 30k troops a month, that’s about half the number of male children born.

    And they are already in a demographic crisis.
    It iwll be 34,000 this month. Which is 2/3rds of male births.
    If you want grim, read the interview with the Ukrainian drone forces commander.

    They have a target number for killing Russian troops.
    Sadly that’s how war works, it’s Hell for those involved, even the drone pilots working some distance from the front lines. Russia is throwing huge numbers of untrained men into the meat-grinder.

    As with any war, there will be a lot of PTSD (as we now call shell-shock) to be dealt with after it finishes.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 47,891
    Sandpit said:

    FPT:
    MarqueeMark said:

    Another 1,180 Russian troops and 54 artillery systems unavaible to parade in Red Square as of yesterday.

    On another victory parade metric, the Russian soldiers lost in Ukraine in April alone - 31,150 with two days to go - if they were in groups of 10 x 10, would compromise 311 such "squares". They would take some 45 minutes to march past Putin...

    If they were White Walkers.

    Trouble is, if you lost 25 million countrymen during the Great Patriotic War, losing tens of thousands now is merely unfortunate.
    The Great Patriotic War was not a war of choice - it was an existential threat from the Nazis.

    Despite trying to brand it as such, it is widely understood within Russia that the Ukraine SMO was Putin's own land-grab. The better parallel is with Afghanistan, where far, far fewer casualties ground down any support for that adventure.

    And this one is trashing the Russian economy as Ukraine has fought dirty - by blowing up Russia as a gas station.
    The Russian birth rate is something like 100k a month.

    If they are losing 30k troops a month, that’s about half the number of male children born.

    And they are already in a demographic crisis.
    It iwll be 34,000 this month. Which is 2/3rds of male births.
    If you want grim, read the interview with the Ukrainian drone forces commander.

    They have a target number for killing Russian troops.
    Sadly that’s how war works, it’s Hell for those involved, even the drone pilots working some distance from the front lines. Russia is throwing huge numbers of untrained men into the meat-grinder.

    As with any war, there will be a lot of PTSD (as we now call shell-shock) to be dealt with after it finishes.
    Or more likely, not dealt with.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,375

    FPT:
    MarqueeMark said:

    Another 1,180 Russian troops and 54 artillery systems unavaible to parade in Red Square as of yesterday.

    On another victory parade metric, the Russian soldiers lost in Ukraine in April alone - 31,150 with two days to go - if they were in groups of 10 x 10, would compromise 311 such "squares". They would take some 45 minutes to march past Putin...

    If they were White Walkers.

    Trouble is, if you lost 25 million countrymen during the Great Patriotic War, losing tens of thousands now is merely unfortunate.
    The Great Patriotic War was not a war of choice - it was an existential threat from the Nazis.

    Despite trying to brand it as such, it is widely understood within Russia that the Ukraine SMO was Putin's own land-grab. The better parallel is with Afghanistan, where far, far fewer casualties ground down any support for that adventure.

    And this one is trashing the Russian economy as Ukraine has fought dirty - by blowing up Russia as a gas station.
    The Russian birth rate is something like 100k a month.

    If they are losing 30k troops a month, that’s about half the number of male children born.

    And they are already in a demographic crisis.
    It iwll be 34,000 this month. Which is 2/3rds of male births.
    If you want grim, read the interview with the Ukrainian drone forces commander.

    They have a target number for killing Russian troops.
    When they meet/exceed their targets, they get more points. And what do points make? Prizes - in their case, access to a catalogue of bigger, better, more deadly drones.

    Warfare with the ethos of a game show. You'd think Trump would approve...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 81,139
    I don't think either side takes drone operators as POWs in the conflict.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 3,133

    FPT:
    MarqueeMark said:

    Another 1,180 Russian troops and 54 artillery systems unavaible to parade in Red Square as of yesterday.

    On another victory parade metric, the Russian soldiers lost in Ukraine in April alone - 31,150 with two days to go - if they were in groups of 10 x 10, would compromise 311 such "squares". They would take some 45 minutes to march past Putin...

    If they were White Walkers.

    Trouble is, if you lost 25 million countrymen during the Great Patriotic War, losing tens of thousands now is merely unfortunate.
    The Great Patriotic War was not a war of choice - it was an existential threat from the Nazis.

    Despite trying to brand it as such, it is widely understood within Russia that the Ukraine SMO was Putin's own land-grab. The better parallel is with Afghanistan, where far, far fewer casualties ground down any support for that adventure.

    And this one is trashing the Russian economy as Ukraine has fought dirty - by blowing up Russia as a gas station.
    The Russian birth rate is something like 100k a month.

    If they are losing 30k troops a month, that’s about half the number of male children born.

    And they are already in a demographic crisis.
    It iwll be 34,000 this month. Which is 2/3rds of male births.
    But they're not just sending Russians
    Putin won't stop the war because of a lack of troops to sacrifice, killing Russian troops, while necessary, won't help with post conflict relations.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,375

    Sandpit said:

    FPT:
    MarqueeMark said:

    Another 1,180 Russian troops and 54 artillery systems unavaible to parade in Red Square as of yesterday.

    On another victory parade metric, the Russian soldiers lost in Ukraine in April alone - 31,150 with two days to go - if they were in groups of 10 x 10, would compromise 311 such "squares". They would take some 45 minutes to march past Putin...

    If they were White Walkers.

    Trouble is, if you lost 25 million countrymen during the Great Patriotic War, losing tens of thousands now is merely unfortunate.
    The Great Patriotic War was not a war of choice - it was an existential threat from the Nazis.

    Despite trying to brand it as such, it is widely understood within Russia that the Ukraine SMO was Putin's own land-grab. The better parallel is with Afghanistan, where far, far fewer casualties ground down any support for that adventure.

    And this one is trashing the Russian economy as Ukraine has fought dirty - by blowing up Russia as a gas station.
    The Russian birth rate is something like 100k a month.

    If they are losing 30k troops a month, that’s about half the number of male children born.

    And they are already in a demographic crisis.
    It iwll be 34,000 this month. Which is 2/3rds of male births.
    If you want grim, read the interview with the Ukrainian drone forces commander.

    They have a target number for killing Russian troops.
    Sadly that’s how war works, it’s Hell for those involved, even the drone pilots working some distance from the front lines. Russia is throwing huge numbers of untrained men into the meat-grinder.

    As with any war, there will be a lot of PTSD (as we now call shell-shock) to be dealt with after it finishes.
    Or more likely, not dealt with.
    Or much more likely, not dealt with because they re dead. So no PTSD to worry about (or provide for). Yay for Russia!
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,086
    Dopermean said:

    FPT:
    MarqueeMark said:

    Another 1,180 Russian troops and 54 artillery systems unavaible to parade in Red Square as of yesterday.

    On another victory parade metric, the Russian soldiers lost in Ukraine in April alone - 31,150 with two days to go - if they were in groups of 10 x 10, would compromise 311 such "squares". They would take some 45 minutes to march past Putin...

    If they were White Walkers.

    Trouble is, if you lost 25 million countrymen during the Great Patriotic War, losing tens of thousands now is merely unfortunate.
    The Great Patriotic War was not a war of choice - it was an existential threat from the Nazis.

    Despite trying to brand it as such, it is widely understood within Russia that the Ukraine SMO was Putin's own land-grab. The better parallel is with Afghanistan, where far, far fewer casualties ground down any support for that adventure.

    And this one is trashing the Russian economy as Ukraine has fought dirty - by blowing up Russia as a gas station.
    The Russian birth rate is something like 100k a month.

    If they are losing 30k troops a month, that’s about half the number of male children born.

    And they are already in a demographic crisis.
    It iwll be 34,000 this month. Which is 2/3rds of male births.
    But they're not just sending Russians
    Putin won't stop the war because of a lack of troops to sacrifice, killing Russian troops, while necessary, won't help with post conflict relations.
    What a twit.

    He’s an evil, evil, idiot.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,673
    Ukraine’s taken out another dodgy sanctioned tanker in the Black Sea this morning.

    https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/2049423047862505475

    A good week for the blue and yellow team.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,375

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The line of Succession

    SOVEREIGN

    1. The Prince of Wales

    2. Prince George of Wales

    3. Princess Charlotte of Wales

    4. Prince Louis of Wales

    5. The Duke of Sussex

    6. Prince Archie of Sussex

    7. Princess Lilibet of Sussex

    8. Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor

    And I'm supposed to believe that this is God's will? Whereas God didn't bother to let us know his opinion about say global warming or the second world war?
    Neither of those were in the Bible, God anointing Kings like David and Solomon was
    God doesn't exist!
    Watch it Sunil - if he/she does they might smite you.
    There are so many worthy causes for a smiting still walking about that you have to wonder whether God's heart is even in it any more.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 3,133
    Farage "gifted" £5m by Harbonne to stand in Clacton.
    Guarfian
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,351
    edited April 29
    Former Tribune editor and Northerner on the Jacob's comments the other day about how the NE is about to fall completely to Reform.

    Alex Niven
    @Alex_Niven
    ·
    1h
    All pretty much accurate. Sure, ‘Red Wall’ discourse is paltry, reductive, bad-faith &c but we’re heading for massive chunks of the postindustrial North/Midlands/South becoming Reform super-heartlands & frighteningly little discussion on the left about how to deal with this

    https://x.com/Alex_Niven/status/2049405797042393169
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,086

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    Taz said:

    This is absolutely right. Certainly for former industrial areas

    People like Rochdale get it.

    The main parties and the PB herd don’t and just demonise the likes of Lucy and ignore the reasons.

    ‘ Think this quote from Lucy who voted Conservative in 2019, Labour in 2024 and is probably voting Green now but would also consider Reform just encapsulates people’s desperation to find some/any party that would bring about the change they so desperately want’

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/2049127363737198934?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    A touch of strawmanning in that argument.
    It's not "demonising" them to point out the likely futility of their choices.

    Many of us are just as frustrated with the efforts of the former duopoly, but we seriously doubt that change brought about by a prospective Reform or Green administration would do anything to improve matters.
    The truth is that it doesn't matter which council you elect next week.

    They will be as broke then as they are now.
    They will have the same statutory duties to hosepipe cash at social care as they do now
    Everything that could possibly be cut has been cut
    Most councillors are normal people and that means many are at best not very good and at worst stupid and malevolent. Which means the officers who are running the council will continue to run the council
    The one thing a reform council may do is as with Durham not raise council tax to much this year, so creating a bigger problem down the line
    ISTR Reform candidates promising to cut council tax. Its easy. Simply scrap DEI and return the cash to the people.
    Except DEI costs are roughly less than sod all - as its day to day HR work.

    Curiously one of the big things Reform are attacking Labour on in South Tyneside is a £28,000 event to reward staff for doing work above and beyond duty.

    Yes it’s £28,000 that could be saved but I bet that type of reward generates £x00,000 of free Labour that otherwise would need to be paid for or not get done

    And it’s removing thank yous like this that results in the better workers leaving
    South Tyneside Council employs around 3,000 people, so that is less than a tenner a head. Compare that with the payroll.

    I remember when I worked in a quango, trying to put on a Christmas event for staff. The Daily Mail would publicise everything and everything and say how shameful it is. Yet there is a special provision in tax law, you can treat your staff up to a certain amount tax free (used to be £80 a head) and the morning after an event that probably cost £20-30 per head the increase in motivation and engagement was palpable.

    Unfortunately no-one ever challenged the mail, pointing out that this is actually good value for money and publicising how much their employer spent on them, the hypocrites
    It’s good politics as it implies the current council is wasteful but it’s good practise from the council. In the overall scheme of things the cost is trivial and why shouldn’t they do this.

    My old company did.

    Mind you sometimes it caused more problems than it solved. For a couple of years the shop floor boycotted it and did their own thing. Over some trivial issue with management. So it didn’t bring workers closer it exacerbated the divide.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,673

    Good morning

    Charlie saves the day is not what I expected to write this am but he absolutely has

    His speeches were clever, witty, and won over America

    At the same time he put Trump in the shadows, and showed Starmer you do not need to fawn over Trump to win your argument

    After some reflection one thing I realised about Charlie's speech is that he didn't mention Trump at all. He talked to America about the relationship between Britain and America.

    It was perfect. It makes it easier to imagine a time in the future when Trump is history.
    Just don't understand the fawning for the Royals..all of this will be forgotten in the light of the local election results and when Trump invades Cuba..😏
    It is not fawning. It is recognising that our representative and his team has done extremely well in a difficult and sensitive task. All the more so given the opposition (which I shared) to his even making the trip.

    It has been deemed vital by our Government that we maintain cordial relations with the current US administration whilst also attempting to make clear to the wider US establishment, and countries like Canada, that we do not support Trump and his actions. The King has done this very well.
    Knighthoods all round for the King’s speechwriters, for two excellent speeches yesterday. Well executed as well, with a large dose of humour.

    It’s a very difficult line to thread, when with a close ally but when there are a number of current disagreements between the governments, but Charles and his team did it really well. One advantage of having a king rather than a president as head of state.

    As for where they found that submarine’s bell, absolutely brilliant idea.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,086
    From the press office of the Governor of CA

    😂😂😂😂


  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,351
    edited April 29
    Dopermean said:

    Farage "gifted" £5m by Harbonne to stand in Clacton.
    Guarfian

    Interestingly it seems the Guardian approached Farage and Reform about this and they pleaded for more time to respond and then the Telegraph got an interview.

    This happened to Bulwark's Sam Stein the other day. He approached Trump administration with an exclusive about Trump picture being on new passports and they pleaded for time to look into it and then apparently went to Fox News and gave them the story.

    As per usual - Reform and Trump land. No difference.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,193

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    Taz said:

    This is absolutely right. Certainly for former industrial areas

    People like Rochdale get it.

    The main parties and the PB herd don’t and just demonise the likes of Lucy and ignore the reasons.

    ‘ Think this quote from Lucy who voted Conservative in 2019, Labour in 2024 and is probably voting Green now but would also consider Reform just encapsulates people’s desperation to find some/any party that would bring about the change they so desperately want’

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/2049127363737198934?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    A touch of strawmanning in that argument.
    It's not "demonising" them to point out the likely futility of their choices.

    Many of us are just as frustrated with the efforts of the former duopoly, but we seriously doubt that change brought about by a prospective Reform or Green administration would do anything to improve matters.
    The truth is that it doesn't matter which council you elect next week.

    They will be as broke then as they are now.
    They will have the same statutory duties to hosepipe cash at social care as they do now
    Everything that could possibly be cut has been cut
    Most councillors are normal people and that means many are at best not very good and at worst stupid and malevolent. Which means the officers who are running the council will continue to run the council
    The one thing a reform council may do is as with Durham not raise council tax to much this year, so creating a bigger problem down the line
    ISTR Reform candidates promising to cut council tax. Its easy. Simply scrap DEI and return the cash to the people.
    Except DEI costs are roughly less than sod all - as its day to day HR work.

    Curiously one of the big things Reform are attacking Labour on in South Tyneside is a £28,000 event to reward staff for doing work above and beyond duty.

    Yes it’s £28,000 that could be saved but I bet that type of reward generates £x00,000 of free Labour that otherwise would need to be paid for or not get done

    And it’s removing thank yous like this that results in the better workers leaving
    Curious bit of DEI this week. We were informed of Lesbian Awareness day. I find this amusing as anyone who has ever visited certain kinds of website will be fully aware of lesbians.*

    *So I'm told.
    I'd guess part of the awareness you might be missing is that lesbians are ordinary people and not just wankfodder.

    Combined with the grotesque discussion on here about Trump's mother finding KCIII cute the other day and it does feel like some posters are determined to ensure the number of women contributing to PB.com is minimised.
    Most of the time I just let these things slide. It's not my website. I've no interest in policing other people's posts.

    Sometimes, for whatever reason, I forget myself and wade in anyway. That's about me and not about @turbotubbs

    Sorry about that. I like having you around and I regret going off at you.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,086
    Dopermean said:

    Farage "gifted" £5m by Harbonne to stand in Clacton.
    Guarfian

    Typical press.

    That’s a Telegraph story they’re just cutting n pasting.

    Anything illegal here ?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 20,932

    Nigelb said:

    Taz said:

    This is absolutely right. Certainly for former industrial areas

    People like Rochdale get it.

    The main parties and the PB herd don’t and just demonise the likes of Lucy and ignore the reasons.

    ‘ Think this quote from Lucy who voted Conservative in 2019, Labour in 2024 and is probably voting Green now but would also consider Reform just encapsulates people’s desperation to find some/any party that would bring about the change they so desperately want’

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/2049127363737198934?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    A touch of strawmanning in that argument.
    It's not "demonising" them to point out the likely futility of their choices.

    Many of us are just as frustrated with the efforts of the former duopoly, but we seriously doubt that change brought about by a prospective Reform or Green administration would do anything to improve matters.
    The truth is that it doesn't matter which council you elect next week.

    They will be as broke then as they are now.
    They will have the same statutory duties to hosepipe cash at social care as they do now
    Everything that could possibly be cut has been cut
    Most councillors are normal people and that means many are at best not very good and at worst stupid and malevolent. Which means the officers who are running the council will continue to run the council
    I am sorry but that is defeatist and all too popular an answer from political centrist class these days as to why nothing can change
    I think it's more a reflection of how little power local government has. At Westminster, you can make a change. At Holyrood too.
    I disagree. Councils and Councillors can only administer the money they get from central government. Social services, and education are mandated from central government so they can't do anything about it. It seems that councillors are just targets for citizens to take out their annoyances on from national government. I toyed with the idea a year ago to stand for the council, but it seems whatever you do and however hard you work you will win it lose on the basis of parties in Westminster, Cardiff or Edinburgh.
    You appear to be agreeing with me, your first sentence notwithstanding.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 20,932
    Taz said:

    Dopermean said:

    Farage "gifted" £5m by Harbonne to stand in Clacton.
    Guarfian

    Typical press.

    That’s a Telegraph story they’re just cutting n pasting.

    Anything illegal here ?
    It doesn't have to be illegal to be worth reporting on.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 5,542

    Nigelb said:

    Taz said:

    This is absolutely right. Certainly for former industrial areas

    People like Rochdale get it.

    The main parties and the PB herd don’t and just demonise the likes of Lucy and ignore the reasons.

    ‘ Think this quote from Lucy who voted Conservative in 2019, Labour in 2024 and is probably voting Green now but would also consider Reform just encapsulates people’s desperation to find some/any party that would bring about the change they so desperately want’

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/2049127363737198934?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    A touch of strawmanning in that argument.
    It's not "demonising" them to point out the likely futility of their choices.

    Many of us are just as frustrated with the efforts of the former duopoly, but we seriously doubt that change brought about by a prospective Reform or Green administration would do anything to improve matters.
    The truth is that it doesn't matter which council you elect next week.

    They will be as broke then as they are now.
    They will have the same statutory duties to hosepipe cash at social care as they do now
    Everything that could possibly be cut has been cut
    Most councillors are normal people and that means many are at best not very good and at worst stupid and malevolent. Which means the officers who are running the council will continue to run the council
    I am sorry but that is defeatist and all too popular an answer from political centrist class these days as to why nothing can change
    I think it's more a reflection of how little power local government has. At Westminster, you can make a change. At Holyrood too.
    I disagree. Councils and Councillors can only administer the money they get from central government. Social services, and education are mandated from central government so they can't do anything about it. It seems that councillors are just targets for citizens to take out their annoyances on from national government. I toyed with the idea a year ago to stand for the council, but it seems whatever you do and however hard you work you will win it lose on the basis of parties in Westminster, Cardiff or Edinburgh.
    You appear to be agreeing with me, your first sentence notwithstanding.
    Yes, i'm sorry, I keep making the error of replying to something further up the chain

    :)
  • FossFoss Posts: 2,726

    Former Tribune editor and Northerner on the Jacob's comments the other day about how the NE is about to fall completely to Reform.

    Alex Niven
    @Alex_Niven
    ·
    1h
    All pretty much accurate. Sure, ‘Red Wall’ discourse is paltry, reductive, bad-faith &c but we’re heading for massive chunks of the postindustrial North/Midlands/South becoming Reform super-heartlands & frighteningly little discussion on the left about how to deal with this

    https://x.com/Alex_Niven/status/2049405797042393169

    Does it count if it's outside the M25?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,375
    Taz said:

    Dopermean said:

    Farage "gifted" £5m by Harbonne to stand in Clacton.
    Guarfian

    Typical press.

    That’s a Telegraph story they’re just cutting n pasting.

    Anything illegal here ?
    I hope nobody in Reform has ever bitched and moaned about large political donations.

    That wouldn't be illegal either. But still politiclly toxic.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,857

    Good morning

    Charlie saves the day is not what I expected to write this am but he absolutely has

    His speeches were clever, witty, and won over America

    At the same time he put Trump in the shadows, and showed Starmer you do not need to fawn over Trump to win your argument

    After some reflection one thing I realised about Charlie's speech is that he didn't mention Trump at all. He talked to America about the relationship between Britain and America.

    It was perfect. It makes it easier to imagine a time in the future when Trump is history.
    Just don't understand the fawning for the Royals..all of this will be forgotten in the light of the local election results and when Trump invades Cuba..😏
    It is not fawning. It is recognising that our representative and his team has done extremely well in a difficult and sensitive task. All the more so given the opposition (which I shared) to his even making the trip.

    It has been deemed vital by our Government that we maintain cordial relations with the current US administration whilst also attempting to make clear to the wider US establishment, and countries like Canada, that we do not support Trump and his actions. The King has done this very well.
    The King also mentioned as head of state of Canada he will be joint host of this year's North American World Cup with Trump (and of course the Mexican President)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,857

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The line of Succession

    SOVEREIGN

    1. The Prince of Wales

    2. Prince George of Wales

    3. Princess Charlotte of Wales

    4. Prince Louis of Wales

    5. The Duke of Sussex

    6. Prince Archie of Sussex

    7. Princess Lilibet of Sussex

    8. Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor

    And I'm supposed to believe that this is God's will? Whereas God didn't bother to let us know his opinion about say global warming or the second world war?
    Neither of those were in the Bible, God anointing Kings like David and Solomon was
    God doesn't exist!
    He does for all eternity
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,086

    Taz said:

    Dopermean said:

    Farage "gifted" £5m by Harbonne to stand in Clacton.
    Guarfian

    Typical press.

    That’s a Telegraph story they’re just cutting n pasting.

    Anything illegal here ?
    It doesn't have to be illegal to be worth reporting on.
    You appear confused.

    I’m not saying it’s not worth reporting. If I had you’d have a point.

    I’m just interested in the legality.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,857
    edited April 29
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Reform are obviously going to win most seats next week, they lead every poll. However I think Labour will still scrape second on seats won and councils won, Labour still lead in most London polls and every London council seat is up and in the Birmingham poll yesterday Labour were just ahead. In Scotland Labour are also neck and neck with Reform for second on MSPs won and even in Wales most polls have Labour beating the Tories still even if behind Plaid and Reform.

    Third place on seats won will be close between the Conservatives, LDs and Greens. On NEV the Conservatives should still come at least third, maybe even second based on their current polling. Remember though most shire counties ie the Tory heartlands, voted last year and don't have seats up this year and nor do most district and unitary councils in rural and market and commuter towns either where the Conservatives do best, they are next up next year. Instead it is the big cities like London and Manchester and Birmingham where Labour and the Greens will do best which are almost all holding council elections this year. Even the few county councils that are holding delayed elections this year eg Essex, Norfolk and Hampshire will likely see big Tory seat losses to Reform and in Hampshire and Surrey the LDs will likely beat the Conservatives on seats too.

    The nightmare for Kemi therefore is the Tories end up 5th on seats and councils won behind not only Reform and Labour but even behind the Greens and LDs as well. That would purely be because of the seats up mainly so in my view she should be judged on what the estimated NEV would be UK wide based on votes cast not on the actual seats and councils won

    The LibDems stand a chance of coming top in terms of councils controlled, out of those with all-up elections next week; achieving that rests upon the many Labour ones in London and other cities going NOC
    Possibly but so do Reform if they sweep the delayed county council elections up to add to the county councils they won control of last year and take a few Leave voting suburban London boroughs with all outs like Havering and Barking and Dagenham and Bexley. Plus a few Leave voting metropolitan boroughs with all outs like Barnsley, Sandwell, Sunderland and Walsall and unitary Thurrock and Newcastle under Lyme which are also all out elections. Reform gains could also see the LDs lose control of councils like Hull and Watford
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 17,428

    Good morning

    Charlie saves the day is not what I expected to write this am but he absolutely has

    His speeches were clever, witty, and won over America

    At the same time he put Trump in the shadows, and showed Starmer you do not need to fawn over Trump to win your argument

    After some reflection one thing I realised about Charlie's speech is that he didn't mention Trump at all. He talked to America about the relationship between Britain and America.

    It was perfect. It makes it easier to imagine a time in the future when Trump is history.
    Just don't understand the fawning for the Royals..all of this will be forgotten in the light of the local election results and when Trump invades Cuba..😏
    It isn't possible to understand 'the royals' - ie having a head of state both constitutional and historic and able to affect to be outside politics - if you only look to the short term. It's like trying to understand the papacy, or Islam, or the principles of liberalism only with a mind to the Daily Mail yesterday and tomorrow.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 81,139
    Off topic, I note the Prem was extended to end at the end of May in 2008/9.

    FA Cup should be after the last Prem match tbh
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 81,139
    Off topic, I note the Prem was extended to end at the end of May in 2008/9.

    FA Cup should be after the last Prem match tbh
This discussion has been closed.