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Brexit Effect: Summary and conclusions – politicalbetting.com

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  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 5,542

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    https://x.com/reuters/status/2049103389854929105

    BREAKING: The United Arab Emirates said it quit OPEC and OPEC+, dealing a heavy blow to the oil exporting groups and their de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, at a time when the Iran war has caused a historic energy shock and unsettled the global economy

    Watch for oil prices to start falling. UAE is about to start pumping like crazy to stop Iran and Russia from benefitting from the situation.
    And Trump has just said that Iranians have told him they are 'in a state of collapse' and want him to open Hormuz asap.

    Do we believe him or not?
    Is there a 'y' in the day?

    If the answer's yes, the answer's no.
    Is there only one day without a "y" in it? Christmas Eve. I mean, you'd never call Christmas Eve "Wednesday" or whatever. It's Xmas Eve.
    There are lots - New Ears Eve, Late Ma Bank Holibobs, International Women's Dave... the list goes on.
    All hallows eve,
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,958
    kinabalu said:

    https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/2049145537002197055

    @POTUS: "Honoring the British King might seem an ironic beginning to our celebration of 250 years of American independence — but in fact, no tribute could be more appropriate. Long before Americans had a nation or Constitution, we first had a culture, a character, and a creed. Before we ever proclaimed our independence, Americans carried within us the rarest of gifts: moral courage, and it came from a small but mighty kingdom from across the sea."

    Oh god. There isn't a bucket big enough.
    My bucket is really BIGGGG! Some great people say it is the BIGGEST bucket EVER!!!! I don't know, maybe they are right, but it sure is pretty bigly, much bigger and better than that loser Starmer's bucket.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,181
    edited April 28

    When isvthe vote on Starmer

    About 6.00pm

    Yougov 28th April 2026

    Should be an official enquiry

    61%

    Should not

    20%
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 22,035
    Credit where it is due, Trump’s speech is pretty powerful shit
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 7,936
    Day 6 - 23.4m Nantes to Montaigu-Vendée

    Unexceptional day. The little town I stayed in was pretty in parts, I had a decent studio apartment to stay in and had a good dinner nearby (spiced mussels and prawns to start, and beef on a skewer hanging over my plate for main)

    Day 7 - 25.8m Montaigu-Vendée to La Roche Sur Yon

    Big walk, and the hottest day yet (25°c). I was so pleased to break the 25 mile barrier. I stayed at a vey dated hotel. It was comfortable, but quite basic. Went out for a lovely dinner: pea and raw pollock soup, followed by pork ribs glazed with “ancient” mustard and honey

    Day 8 - 14.8m La Roche Sur Yon to Les Moutiers Les Mauxfaits

    I’d paid for breakfast which didn’t start until 8, so I set off later than hoped and it was another hot day. When it got to booking time (around 2:30pm) I’d only gone about ten miles and could only find a place five or twelve miles away en route

    I went for the mobile home on a campsite five miles away. I managed to get to a supermarket just before so I could cook and drink

    I arrived at the campsite and called the number given. No answer for an hour and ten calls. Then the owner of the campsite showed up and she tried to help. She left a message for the host, and passed it on to her son

    He finally got through to them, and got me into the place. Then he came round half an hour later with barbecued sausages and a beer for me! I made myself dinner and had a bottle of wine afterwards
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 17,430

    algarkirk said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    https://x.com/reuters/status/2049103389854929105

    BREAKING: The United Arab Emirates said it quit OPEC and OPEC+, dealing a heavy blow to the oil exporting groups and their de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, at a time when the Iran war has caused a historic energy shock and unsettled the global economy

    Watch for oil prices to start falling. UAE is about to start pumping like crazy to stop Iran and Russia from benefitting from the situation.
    And Trump has just said that Iranians have told him they are 'in a state of collapse' and want him to open Hormuz asap.

    Do we believe him or not?
    Is there a 'y' in the day?

    If the answer's yes, the answer's no.
    Is there only one day without a "y" in it? Christmas Eve. I mean, you'd never call Christmas Eve "Wednesday" or whatever. It's Xmas Eve.
    Halloween.
    Mother's Day.

    Guido Fawkes?.......
    Mother's Day has a "y"!
    Yay I meant May Day
  • StarryStarry Posts: 203
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    False precision is rife in this debate, as Fishing says, but one thing we can say for sure about Brexit is that people who voted for it on the grounds it would help the economy are still waiting for some decent evidence of it. The consensus is if anything the opposite. Ditto that it would make us stronger and more influential in the world. The opposite has transpired there too. Same on immigration. Far from taking the heat out of that it's become an even more contentious issue.

    Which leaves the sovereignty angle. That the point of Brexit was Brexit itself. It's a success by dint of having happened. For better or worse - with most metrics thus far indicating worse - we have taken back control. Forget all the rest, it is argued, this is the Brexit benefit. Pretty much the only one but nevertheless potentially big enough to justify almost a decade of division, paralysis and distraction.

    So what I'd like to ask Leave voters, given the importance of this, is do they feel it? Do they feel more sovereign now we aren't in the EU? Is the supposed Brexit dividend of being more in control something real and tangible to them? But wait, we don't have to ask them because the polls tell us the answer. Many of them now think it was a mistake and most of those who don't remain so hacked off they want to hand power to Nigel Farage and his bunch of chancers, fantasists and unsavouries. All in all, it's not a good report card.

    Dan Hannan's ludicrous article with his fantasy of life after Brexit springs to mind. That's what Brexiteers promised.

    Some in this thread suggest that the overall effect of Brexit on the economy, and perhaps more generally, was fairly minor. Maybe that's correct, but had that been the prospectus offered, would people have voted for Brexit? No.
    I remember that. Bit of a pipedream. Fwiw I can accept (without agreeing with) a pov that the economic impact is marginal. It's impossible to prove that stuff because so many things impact the economy.

    It's the 'sovereignty' argument that interests me more. I mean, technically, yes of course we have more now since less is pooled. But that for me is a reductive, superficial view of what sovereignty means.

    I'd rather pose a couple of practical questions. As a consequence of Brexit is Britain more influential in the world? As a consequence of Brexit do the people of Britain have more control over their lives? It's hard to answer yes to either.

    So what was it all for other than to gratify and empower a crew of reactionary right wing ideologues plus Boris Johnson? Answers on a postcard.
    How about: 'is there more or less immigration from Least Developed Countries?' Who's voting for Brexit now?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 17,564

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    https://x.com/reuters/status/2049103389854929105

    BREAKING: The United Arab Emirates said it quit OPEC and OPEC+, dealing a heavy blow to the oil exporting groups and their de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, at a time when the Iran war has caused a historic energy shock and unsettled the global economy

    Watch for oil prices to start falling. UAE is about to start pumping like crazy to stop Iran and Russia from benefitting from the situation.
    And Trump has just said that Iranians have told him they are 'in a state of collapse' and want him to open Hormuz asap.

    Do we believe him or not?
    Is there a 'y' in the day?

    If the answer's yes, the answer's no.
    Is there only one day without a "y" in it? Christmas Eve. I mean, you'd never call Christmas Eve "Wednesday" or whatever. It's Xmas Eve.
    There are lots - New Ears Eve, Late Ma Bank Holibobs, International Women's Dave... the list goes on.
    All hallows eve,
    Bonfire Night.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,159

    Credit where it is due, Trump’s speech is pretty powerful shit

    His Mother had a crush on Chaz !!

    The thought of Trumps mother with her hand down south, stroking away, while thinking of Chaz !!!!!
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 3,146

    Looking forward to LE2026

    The current breakdown of council seat defences by party is as follows, out of a total of 4,992 up for election:
    🌹LAB: 2,196
    🌳CON: 1,134
    🔶LDM: 663
    🌍GRN: 170
    ➡️RFM: 78
    📍Localists: 49
    ℹ️Ind/Oth: 406
    ⬜Vacant: 34
    🆕Newly created: 162

    I reckon Greens will be looking to end with at least 1000.

    I believe SKS would bite your hand off to end up with 1000 and I reckon retain 600 max

    LDs should increase to around 1000

    Reform biggest gainers with circa 1500

    Con 500 msx

    Not long to wait for a night I will enjoy a lot.

    It's probably more a day after you will enjoy. Not many places are doing overnight counting!
    On the upside, all those places voting in Reform to run their local services may be having second thoughts by the time of the next GE.
    On the downside, while I'm very unlikely to suffer from Reform screwing up my local services, it is quite likely that I could suffer from the Lib Dems screwing them up* and they're likely to be harder to shift...

    *based on the mess they've made in the neighbouring council
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 5,542
    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    https://x.com/reuters/status/2049103389854929105

    BREAKING: The United Arab Emirates said it quit OPEC and OPEC+, dealing a heavy blow to the oil exporting groups and their de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, at a time when the Iran war has caused a historic energy shock and unsettled the global economy

    Watch for oil prices to start falling. UAE is about to start pumping like crazy to stop Iran and Russia from benefitting from the situation.
    And Trump has just said that Iranians have told him they are 'in a state of collapse' and want him to open Hormuz asap.

    Do we believe him or not?
    Is there a 'y' in the day?

    If the answer's yes, the answer's no.
    Is there only one day without a "y" in it? Christmas Eve. I mean, you'd never call Christmas Eve "Wednesday" or whatever. It's Xmas Eve.
    There are lots - New Ears Eve, Late Ma Bank Holibobs, International Women's Dave... the list goes on.
    All hallows eve,
    Bonfire Night.
    Burns night
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,225
    On the article, I don't really understand the rationale for a displacement effect offsetting the damage from a loss of exports. I would think that the loss of scale that losing exports would create would make residual production less efficient, thereby contributing to inflation and a general loss of competitiveness.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,689
    algarkirk said:

    algarkirk said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    https://x.com/reuters/status/2049103389854929105

    BREAKING: The United Arab Emirates said it quit OPEC and OPEC+, dealing a heavy blow to the oil exporting groups and their de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, at a time when the Iran war has caused a historic energy shock and unsettled the global economy

    Watch for oil prices to start falling. UAE is about to start pumping like crazy to stop Iran and Russia from benefitting from the situation.
    And Trump has just said that Iranians have told him they are 'in a state of collapse' and want him to open Hormuz asap.

    Do we believe him or not?
    Is there a 'y' in the day?

    If the answer's yes, the answer's no.
    Is there only one day without a "y" in it? Christmas Eve. I mean, you'd never call Christmas Eve "Wednesday" or whatever. It's Xmas Eve.
    Halloween.
    Mother's Day.

    Guido Fawkes?.......
    Mother's Day has a "y"!
    Yay I meant May Day
    M’aider, m’aider, m’aider…
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 7,936

    Day 9 - 21.4m Les Moutiers Les Mauxfaits to Puyravault

    A really cool and misty morning; the sun didn’t come out until about 2pm. I managed to get 14 miles in by booking time. I booked another mobile home, but this time in someone’s garden

    It was in a lovely, tranquil spot next to a large pond. I had food to cook, but only one beer. I managed to sweet talk the host into giving me two more bottles of beer!

    Day 10 - 24m Puyravault to La Rochelle

    Day 11 - 4m so far in La Rochelle

    I got an early start, and was making good progress. I got to a point where I could walk on a path by a canal, or alongside a busy road. Obviously I picked the canal path. Three miles later I realised that the path was about to take a three mile detour from the canal. I pressed on by the canal thinking that it must have at least a little trail by it..

    I was wrong and had to backtrack to the three mile detour, it added about four miles to my day, which was the hottest day so far: 26°c

    I decided to stay two nights here and have landed in a really beautiful apartment right in the centre. I got all my washing on, then went out for dinner

    I found a really nice seafood restaurant and had huge oysters and langoustines with a couple of glasses of a local Viognier

    Today I’ve been eating, drinking and exploring a bit. I’m now sat by one of the old towers by the port, wondering what to have for dinner..

    Last night’s dinner


  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 3,146
    Taz said:

    Credit where it is due, Trump’s speech is pretty powerful shit

    His Mother had a crush on Chaz !!

    The thought of Trumps mother with her hand down south, stroking away, while thinking of Chaz !!!!!
    She had a sexual crush on someone younger than her children?
    He takes after his mother!!
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,923

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    https://x.com/reuters/status/2049103389854929105

    BREAKING: The United Arab Emirates said it quit OPEC and OPEC+, dealing a heavy blow to the oil exporting groups and their de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, at a time when the Iran war has caused a historic energy shock and unsettled the global economy

    Watch for oil prices to start falling. UAE is about to start pumping like crazy to stop Iran and Russia from benefitting from the situation.
    And Trump has just said that Iranians have told him they are 'in a state of collapse' and want him to open Hormuz asap.

    Do we believe him or not?
    Is there a 'y' in the day?

    If the answer's yes, the answer's no.
    Is there only one day without a "y" in it? Christmas Eve. I mean, you'd never call Christmas Eve "Wednesday" or whatever. It's Xmas Eve.
    There are lots - New Ears Eve, Late Ma Bank Holibobs, International Women's Dave... the list goes on.
    All hallows eve,
    Bonfire Night.
    Burns night

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    https://x.com/reuters/status/2049103389854929105

    BREAKING: The United Arab Emirates said it quit OPEC and OPEC+, dealing a heavy blow to the oil exporting groups and their de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, at a time when the Iran war has caused a historic energy shock and unsettled the global economy

    Watch for oil prices to start falling. UAE is about to start pumping like crazy to stop Iran and Russia from benefitting from the situation.
    And Trump has just said that Iranians have told him they are 'in a state of collapse' and want him to open Hormuz asap.

    Do we believe him or not?
    Is there a 'y' in the day?

    If the answer's yes, the answer's no.
    Is there only one day without a "y" in it? Christmas Eve. I mean, you'd never call Christmas Eve "Wednesday" or whatever. It's Xmas Eve.
    There are lots - New Ears Eve, Late Ma Bank Holibobs, International Women's Dave... the list goes on.
    All hallows eve,
    Bonfire Night.
    Burns night
    General election
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 19,659
    edited April 28
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    False precision is rife in this debate, as Fishing says, but one thing we can say for sure about Brexit is that people who voted for it on the grounds it would help the economy are still waiting for some decent evidence of it. The consensus is if anything the opposite. Ditto that it would make us stronger and more influential in the world. The opposite has transpired there too. Same on immigration. Far from taking the heat out of that it's become an even more contentious issue.

    Which leaves the sovereignty angle. That the point of Brexit was Brexit itself. It's a success by dint of having happened. For better or worse - with most metrics thus far indicating worse - we have taken back control. Forget all the rest, it is argued, this is the Brexit benefit. Pretty much the only one but nevertheless potentially big enough to justify almost a decade of division, paralysis and distraction.

    So what I'd like to ask Leave voters, given the importance of this, is do they feel it? Do they feel more sovereign now we aren't in the EU? Is the supposed Brexit dividend of being more in control something real and tangible to them? But wait, we don't have to ask them because the polls tell us the answer. Many of them now think it was a mistake and most of those who don't remain so hacked off they want to hand power to Nigel Farage and his bunch of chancers, fantasists and unsavouries. All in all, it's not a good report card.

    Dan Hannan's ludicrous article with his fantasy of life after Brexit springs to mind. That's what Brexiteers promised.

    Some in this thread suggest that the overall effect of Brexit on the economy, and perhaps more generally, was fairly minor. Maybe that's correct, but had that been the prospectus offered, would people have voted for Brexit? No.
    I remember that. Bit of a pipedream. Fwiw I can accept (without agreeing with) a pov that the economic impact is marginal. It's impossible to prove that stuff because so many things impact the economy.

    It's the 'sovereignty' argument that interests me more. I mean, technically, yes of course we have more now since less is pooled. But that for me is a reductive, superficial view of what sovereignty means.

    I'd rather pose a couple of practical questions. As a consequence of Brexit is Britain more influential in the world? As a consequence of Brexit do the people of Britain have more control over their lives? It's hard to answer yes to either.

    So what was it all for other than to gratify and empower a crew of reactionary right wing ideologues plus Boris Johnson? Answers on a postcard.
    Broadly I would say Brexit has two upsides and four downsides for the UK.

    Upsides:
    1. Flexibility. The EU takes forever to come to decision. The UK can be more nimble, eg Covid vaccines.
    2. Greater accountability due to decisions being made closer to those affected by them.

    Downsides:
    1. Stresses the integrity of the United Kingdom. I think Northern Ireland is probably gone long term. Scotland less certain but Brexit doesn't help. Both nations voted Remain for good reasons. If you are an English, Irish or Scottish nationalist you obviously don't care about the existence of the United Kingdom, but it is the country we live in.
    2. Loss of personal freedom and liberty, particularly to trade and go where you want This aim is incompatible with greater government control afforded by Brexit, eg on immigration. Some people prefer government control to liberty, which is why I haven't put that as an upside. Mileages may vary on this.
    3. Economic loss - the subject of this series of headers
    4. Loss of influence. This a lot more hard nosed than people think. It means getting more of what we want as a nation.

    I do think the European Union is a net force for the good, so I am glad it exists, regardless of UK membership. Talking here about how Brexit affects the UK specifically.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,671

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    https://x.com/reuters/status/2049103389854929105

    BREAKING: The United Arab Emirates said it quit OPEC and OPEC+, dealing a heavy blow to the oil exporting groups and their de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, at a time when the Iran war has caused a historic energy shock and unsettled the global economy

    Watch for oil prices to start falling. UAE is about to start pumping like crazy to stop Iran and Russia from benefitting from the situation.
    And Trump has just said that Iranians have told him they are 'in a state of collapse' and want him to open Hormuz asap.

    Do we believe him or not?
    Is there a 'y' in the day?

    If the answer's yes, the answer's no.
    Is there only one day without a "y" in it? Christmas Eve. I mean, you'd never call Christmas Eve "Wednesday" or whatever. It's Xmas Eve.
    There are lots - New Ears Eve, Late Ma Bank Holibobs, International Women's Dave... the list goes on.
    All hallows eve,
    Bonfire Night.
    Burns night

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    https://x.com/reuters/status/2049103389854929105

    BREAKING: The United Arab Emirates said it quit OPEC and OPEC+, dealing a heavy blow to the oil exporting groups and their de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, at a time when the Iran war has caused a historic energy shock and unsettled the global economy

    Watch for oil prices to start falling. UAE is about to start pumping like crazy to stop Iran and Russia from benefitting from the situation.
    And Trump has just said that Iranians have told him they are 'in a state of collapse' and want him to open Hormuz asap.

    Do we believe him or not?
    Is there a 'y' in the day?

    If the answer's yes, the answer's no.
    Is there only one day without a "y" in it? Christmas Eve. I mean, you'd never call Christmas Eve "Wednesday" or whatever. It's Xmas Eve.
    There are lots - New Ears Eve, Late Ma Bank Holibobs, International Women's Dave... the list goes on.
    All hallows eve,
    Bonfire Night.
    Burns night
    General election
    Winter and summer solstices.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,923
    FF43 said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    False precision is rife in this debate, as Fishing says, but one thing we can say for sure about Brexit is that people who voted for it on the grounds it would help the economy are still waiting for some decent evidence of it. The consensus is if anything the opposite. Ditto that it would make us stronger and more influential in the world. The opposite has transpired there too. Same on immigration. Far from taking the heat out of that it's become an even more contentious issue.

    Which leaves the sovereignty angle. That the point of Brexit was Brexit itself. It's a success by dint of having happened. For better or worse - with most metrics thus far indicating worse - we have taken back control. Forget all the rest, it is argued, this is the Brexit benefit. Pretty much the only one but nevertheless potentially big enough to justify almost a decade of division, paralysis and distraction.

    So what I'd like to ask Leave voters, given the importance of this, is do they feel it? Do they feel more sovereign now we aren't in the EU? Is the supposed Brexit dividend of being more in control something real and tangible to them? But wait, we don't have to ask them because the polls tell us the answer. Many of them now think it was a mistake and most of those who don't remain so hacked off they want to hand power to Nigel Farage and his bunch of chancers, fantasists and unsavouries. All in all, it's not a good report card.

    Dan Hannan's ludicrous article with his fantasy of life after Brexit springs to mind. That's what Brexiteers promised.

    Some in this thread suggest that the overall effect of Brexit on the economy, and perhaps more generally, was fairly minor. Maybe that's correct, but had that been the prospectus offered, would people have voted for Brexit? No.
    I remember that. Bit of a pipedream. Fwiw I can accept (without agreeing with) a pov that the economic impact is marginal. It's impossible to prove that stuff because so many things impact the economy.

    It's the 'sovereignty' argument that interests me more. I mean, technically, yes of course we have more now since less is pooled. But that for me is a reductive, superficial view of what sovereignty means.

    I'd rather pose a couple of practical questions. As a consequence of Brexit is Britain more influential in the world? As a consequence of Brexit do the people of Britain have more control over their lives? It's hard to answer yes to either.

    So what was it all for other than to gratify and empower a crew of reactionary right wing ideologues plus Boris Johnson? Answers on a postcard.
    Broadly I would say Brexit has two upsides and four downsides for the UK.

    Upsides:
    1. Flexibility. The EU takes forever to come to decision. The UK can be more nimble, eg Covid vaccines.
    2. Greater accountability due to decisions being made closer to those affected by them.

    Downsides:
    1. Stresses the integrity of the United Kingdom. I think Northern Ireland is probably gone long term. Scotland less certain but Brexit doesn't help. Both nations voted Remain for good reasons. If you are an English, Irish or Scottish nationalist you obviously don't care about the existence of the United Kingdom, but it is the country we live in.
    2. Loss of personal freedom and liberty particularly of trade and movement. This aim is incompatible with greater government control afforded by Brexit, eg on immigration, which some people prefer to liberty, which is why I haven't put that as an upside. Mileages may vary on this.
    3. Economic loss - the subject of this series of headers
    4. Loss of influence. This a lot more hard nosed than people think. It means getting more of what we want as a nation.

    I do think the European Union is a net force for the good, so I am glad it exists, regardless of UK membership. Bit talking here about how Brexit affects the UK specifically.
    I agree as a rare voter of both reform and remain
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 12,882
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Not just the refinery at Tuapse on fire, the streets outside are on fire too.

    https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/2049133334773575811

    Presumably Russia now has the right to blow up all Ukrainian energy facilities?
    I love it!

    A country gets invaded, rockets and missiles are fired at it, its citizens are killed.

    And they're not allowed to fight back.

    It's almost a parody.
    What becomes of Russia as they surely and slowly lose?
    What on earth do the Ukrainians think after they've had to trade many Ukrainian lives for those of the Russians?

    Ukraine will most likely get all their land back and get something that looks like reparations. They may once again become a nuclear power.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 20,965
    FF43 said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    False precision is rife in this debate, as Fishing says, but one thing we can say for sure about Brexit is that people who voted for it on the grounds it would help the economy are still waiting for some decent evidence of it. The consensus is if anything the opposite. Ditto that it would make us stronger and more influential in the world. The opposite has transpired there too. Same on immigration. Far from taking the heat out of that it's become an even more contentious issue.

    Which leaves the sovereignty angle. That the point of Brexit was Brexit itself. It's a success by dint of having happened. For better or worse - with most metrics thus far indicating worse - we have taken back control. Forget all the rest, it is argued, this is the Brexit benefit. Pretty much the only one but nevertheless potentially big enough to justify almost a decade of division, paralysis and distraction.

    So what I'd like to ask Leave voters, given the importance of this, is do they feel it? Do they feel more sovereign now we aren't in the EU? Is the supposed Brexit dividend of being more in control something real and tangible to them? But wait, we don't have to ask them because the polls tell us the answer. Many of them now think it was a mistake and most of those who don't remain so hacked off they want to hand power to Nigel Farage and his bunch of chancers, fantasists and unsavouries. All in all, it's not a good report card.

    Dan Hannan's ludicrous article with his fantasy of life after Brexit springs to mind. That's what Brexiteers promised.

    Some in this thread suggest that the overall effect of Brexit on the economy, and perhaps more generally, was fairly minor. Maybe that's correct, but had that been the prospectus offered, would people have voted for Brexit? No.
    I remember that. Bit of a pipedream. Fwiw I can accept (without agreeing with) a pov that the economic impact is marginal. It's impossible to prove that stuff because so many things impact the economy.

    It's the 'sovereignty' argument that interests me more. I mean, technically, yes of course we have more now since less is pooled. But that for me is a reductive, superficial view of what sovereignty means.

    I'd rather pose a couple of practical questions. As a consequence of Brexit is Britain more influential in the world? As a consequence of Brexit do the people of Britain have more control over their lives? It's hard to answer yes to either.

    So what was it all for other than to gratify and empower a crew of reactionary right wing ideologues plus Boris Johnson? Answers on a postcard.
    Broadly I would say Brexit has two upsides and four downsides for the UK.

    Upsides:
    1. Flexibility. The EU takes forever to come to decision. The UK can be more nimble, eg Covid vaccines.
    2. Greater accountability due to decisions being made closer to those affected by them.

    Downsides:
    1. Stresses the integrity of the United Kingdom. I think Northern Ireland is probably gone long term. Scotland less certain but Brexit doesn't help. Both nations voted Remain for good reasons. If you are an English, Irish or Scottish nationalist you obviously don't care about the existence of the United Kingdom, but it is the country we live in.
    2. Loss of personal freedom and liberty, particularly to trade and go where you want This aim is incompatible with greater government control afforded by Brexit, eg on immigration. Some people prefer government control to liberty, which is why I haven't put that as an upside. Mileages may vary on this.
    3. Economic loss - the subject of this series of headers
    4. Loss of influence. This a lot more hard nosed than people think. It means getting more of what we want as a nation.

    I do think the European Union is a net force for the good, so I am glad it exists, regardless of UK membership. Talking here about how Brexit affects the UK specifically.
    Our independent approach on COVID vaccines was allowed under the EU rules.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,241

    FF43 said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    False precision is rife in this debate, as Fishing says, but one thing we can say for sure about Brexit is that people who voted for it on the grounds it would help the economy are still waiting for some decent evidence of it. The consensus is if anything the opposite. Ditto that it would make us stronger and more influential in the world. The opposite has transpired there too. Same on immigration. Far from taking the heat out of that it's become an even more contentious issue.

    Which leaves the sovereignty angle. That the point of Brexit was Brexit itself. It's a success by dint of having happened. For better or worse - with most metrics thus far indicating worse - we have taken back control. Forget all the rest, it is argued, this is the Brexit benefit. Pretty much the only one but nevertheless potentially big enough to justify almost a decade of division, paralysis and distraction.

    So what I'd like to ask Leave voters, given the importance of this, is do they feel it? Do they feel more sovereign now we aren't in the EU? Is the supposed Brexit dividend of being more in control something real and tangible to them? But wait, we don't have to ask them because the polls tell us the answer. Many of them now think it was a mistake and most of those who don't remain so hacked off they want to hand power to Nigel Farage and his bunch of chancers, fantasists and unsavouries. All in all, it's not a good report card.

    Dan Hannan's ludicrous article with his fantasy of life after Brexit springs to mind. That's what Brexiteers promised.

    Some in this thread suggest that the overall effect of Brexit on the economy, and perhaps more generally, was fairly minor. Maybe that's correct, but had that been the prospectus offered, would people have voted for Brexit? No.
    I remember that. Bit of a pipedream. Fwiw I can accept (without agreeing with) a pov that the economic impact is marginal. It's impossible to prove that stuff because so many things impact the economy.

    It's the 'sovereignty' argument that interests me more. I mean, technically, yes of course we have more now since less is pooled. But that for me is a reductive, superficial view of what sovereignty means.

    I'd rather pose a couple of practical questions. As a consequence of Brexit is Britain more influential in the world? As a consequence of Brexit do the people of Britain have more control over their lives? It's hard to answer yes to either.

    So what was it all for other than to gratify and empower a crew of reactionary right wing ideologues plus Boris Johnson? Answers on a postcard.
    Broadly I would say Brexit has two upsides and four downsides for the UK.

    Upsides:
    1. Flexibility. The EU takes forever to come to decision. The UK can be more nimble, eg Covid vaccines.
    2. Greater accountability due to decisions being made closer to those affected by them.

    Downsides:
    1. Stresses the integrity of the United Kingdom. I think Northern Ireland is probably gone long term. Scotland less certain but Brexit doesn't help. Both nations voted Remain for good reasons. If you are an English, Irish or Scottish nationalist you obviously don't care about the existence of the United Kingdom, but it is the country we live in.
    2. Loss of personal freedom and liberty, particularly to trade and go where you want This aim is incompatible with greater government control afforded by Brexit, eg on immigration. Some people prefer government control to liberty, which is why I haven't put that as an upside. Mileages may vary on this.
    3. Economic loss - the subject of this series of headers
    4. Loss of influence. This a lot more hard nosed than people think. It means getting more of what we want as a nation.

    I do think the European Union is a net force for the good, so I am glad it exists, regardless of UK membership. Talking here about how Brexit affects the UK specifically.
    Our independent approach on COVID vaccines was allowed under the EU rules.
    But every prominent pro-european in the country warned against it. Too poor, too wee, as ScotsNats would say.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 33,520
    Interesting words by the new UK Ambassador to the US, leaked to the FT !
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,241
    edited April 28
    FF43 said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    False precision is rife in this debate, as Fishing says, but one thing we can say for sure about Brexit is that people who voted for it on the grounds it would help the economy are still waiting for some decent evidence of it. The consensus is if anything the opposite. Ditto that it would make us stronger and more influential in the world. The opposite has transpired there too. Same on immigration. Far from taking the heat out of that it's become an even more contentious issue.

    Which leaves the sovereignty angle. That the point of Brexit was Brexit itself. It's a success by dint of having happened. For better or worse - with most metrics thus far indicating worse - we have taken back control. Forget all the rest, it is argued, this is the Brexit benefit. Pretty much the only one but nevertheless potentially big enough to justify almost a decade of division, paralysis and distraction.

    So what I'd like to ask Leave voters, given the importance of this, is do they feel it? Do they feel more sovereign now we aren't in the EU? Is the supposed Brexit dividend of being more in control something real and tangible to them? But wait, we don't have to ask them because the polls tell us the answer. Many of them now think it was a mistake and most of those who don't remain so hacked off they want to hand power to Nigel Farage and his bunch of chancers, fantasists and unsavouries. All in all, it's not a good report card.

    Dan Hannan's ludicrous article with his fantasy of life after Brexit springs to mind. That's what Brexiteers promised.

    Some in this thread suggest that the overall effect of Brexit on the economy, and perhaps more generally, was fairly minor. Maybe that's correct, but had that been the prospectus offered, would people have voted for Brexit? No.
    I remember that. Bit of a pipedream. Fwiw I can accept (without agreeing with) a pov that the economic impact is marginal. It's impossible to prove that stuff because so many things impact the economy.

    It's the 'sovereignty' argument that interests me more. I mean, technically, yes of course we have more now since less is pooled. But that for me is a reductive, superficial view of what sovereignty means.

    I'd rather pose a couple of practical questions. As a consequence of Brexit is Britain more influential in the world? As a consequence of Brexit do the people of Britain have more control over their lives? It's hard to answer yes to either.

    So what was it all for other than to gratify and empower a crew of reactionary right wing ideologues plus Boris Johnson? Answers on a postcard.
    Broadly I would say Brexit has two upsides and four downsides for the UK.

    Upsides:
    1. Flexibility. The EU takes forever to come to decision. The UK can be more nimble, eg Covid vaccines.
    2. Greater accountability due to decisions being made closer to those affected by them.

    Downsides:
    1. Stresses the integrity of the United Kingdom. I think Northern Ireland is probably gone long term. Scotland less certain but Brexit doesn't help. Both nations voted Remain for good reasons. If you are an English, Irish or Scottish nationalist you obviously don't care about the existence of the United Kingdom, but it is the country we live in.
    2. Loss of personal freedom and liberty, particularly to trade and go where you want This aim is incompatible with greater government control afforded by Brexit, eg on immigration. Some people prefer government control to liberty, which is why I haven't put that as an upside. Mileages may vary on this.
    3. Economic loss - the subject of this series of headers
    4. Loss of influence. This a lot more hard nosed than people think. It means getting more of what we want as a nation.

    I do think the European Union is a net force for the good, so I am glad it exists, regardless of UK membership. Talking here about how Brexit affects the UK specifically.
    Brexit makes Scottish Independence harder, and therefore less likely. On Ireland you might be right.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,879
    edited April 28
    FF43 said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    False precision is rife in this debate, as Fishing says, but one thing we can say for sure about Brexit is that people who voted for it on the grounds it would help the economy are still waiting for some decent evidence of it. The consensus is if anything the opposite. Ditto that it would make us stronger and more influential in the world. The opposite has transpired there too. Same on immigration. Far from taking the heat out of that it's become an even more contentious issue.

    Which leaves the sovereignty angle. That the point of Brexit was Brexit itself. It's a success by dint of having happened. For better or worse - with most metrics thus far indicating worse - we have taken back control. Forget all the rest, it is argued, this is the Brexit benefit. Pretty much the only one but nevertheless potentially big enough to justify almost a decade of division, paralysis and distraction.

    So what I'd like to ask Leave voters, given the importance of this, is do they feel it? Do they feel more sovereign now we aren't in the EU? Is the supposed Brexit dividend of being more in control something real and tangible to them? But wait, we don't have to ask them because the polls tell us the answer. Many of them now think it was a mistake and most of those who don't remain so hacked off they want to hand power to Nigel Farage and his bunch of chancers, fantasists and unsavouries. All in all, it's not a good report card.

    Dan Hannan's ludicrous article with his fantasy of life after Brexit springs to mind. That's what Brexiteers promised.

    Some in this thread suggest that the overall effect of Brexit on the economy, and perhaps more generally, was fairly minor. Maybe that's correct, but had that been the prospectus offered, would people have voted for Brexit? No.
    I remember that. Bit of a pipedream. Fwiw I can accept (without agreeing with) a pov that the economic impact is marginal. It's impossible to prove that stuff because so many things impact the economy.

    It's the 'sovereignty' argument that interests me more. I mean, technically, yes of course we have more now since less is pooled. But that for me is a reductive, superficial view of what sovereignty means.

    I'd rather pose a couple of practical questions. As a consequence of Brexit is Britain more influential in the world? As a consequence of Brexit do the people of Britain have more control over their lives? It's hard to answer yes to either.

    So what was it all for other than to gratify and empower a crew of reactionary right wing ideologues plus Boris Johnson? Answers on a postcard.
    Broadly I would say Brexit has two upsides and four downsides for the UK.

    Upsides:
    1. Flexibility. The EU takes forever to come to decision. The UK can be more nimble, eg Covid vaccines.
    2. Greater accountability due to decisions being made closer to those affected by them.

    Downsides:
    1. Stresses the integrity of the United Kingdom. I think Northern Ireland is probably gone long term. Scotland less certain but Brexit doesn't help. Both nations voted Remain for good reasons. If you are an English, Irish or Scottish nationalist you obviously don't care about the existence of the United Kingdom, but it is the country we live in.
    2. Loss of personal freedom and liberty, particularly to trade and go where you want This aim is incompatible with greater government control afforded by Brexit, eg on immigration. Some people prefer government control to liberty, which is why I haven't put that as an upside. Mileages may vary on this.
    3. Economic loss - the subject of this series of headers
    4. Loss of influence. This a lot more hard nosed than people think. It means getting more of what we want as a nation.

    I do think the European Union is a net force for the good, so I am glad it exists, regardless of UK membership. Talking here about how Brexit affects the UK specifically.
    The loss of influence argument works more in theory than in practice.

    In theory we're no longer at the top table in Europe; in practice, it's the E3 states of Britain, France and Germany setting out a position on Iran and Britain has obviously been very influential over the course of events in Ukraine (more so than post-2014).
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,923
    Football outside tip

    16/1. Peterborough v Mansfield tonight correct score 0 0


    Peterborough are three points from relegation zone with 2 to play (including this one tonight) . Team in relegation zone only has one game left so must win and Peterborough lose both matches heavily (Peterborough have a superior goal diff but not insurmountable if thrashed in both games) .

    Peterborough surely then going to be pretty defensive to not get thrashed and Mansfield nothing to play for and away
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,923

    Football outside tip

    16/1. Peterborough v Mansfield tonight correct score 0 0


    Peterborough are three points from relegation zone with 2 to play (including this one tonight) . Team in relegation zone only has one game left so must win and Peterborough lose both matches heavily (Peterborough have a superior goal diff but not insurmountable if thrashed in both games) .

    Peterborough surely then going to be pretty defensive to not get thrashed and Mansfield nothing to play for and away

    Should say with bet365
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,159
    Dopermean said:

    Taz said:

    Credit where it is due, Trump’s speech is pretty powerful shit

    His Mother had a crush on Chaz !!

    The thought of Trumps mother with her hand down south, stroking away, while thinking of Chaz !!!!!
    She had a sexual crush on someone younger than her children?
    He takes after his mother!!
    What’s that saying about the apple and the tree.

    If only Chaz had gone round to mend the washing machine one day !

    https://x.com/factpostnews/status/2049147973041336822?s=61
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,816
    Taz said:

    Credit where it is due, Trump’s speech is pretty powerful shit

    His Mother had a crush on Chaz !!

    The thought of Trumps mother with her hand down south, stroking away, while thinking of Chaz !!!!!
    I am afraid I have had to flag you for that image.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,159
    MattW said:

    Interesting words by the new UK Ambassador to the US, leaked to the FT !

    How marvellously vague

    X style vague posting comes to PB.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,159
    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Not just the refinery at Tuapse on fire, the streets outside are on fire too.

    https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/2049133334773575811

    Presumably Russia now has the right to blow up all Ukrainian energy facilities?
    I love it!

    A country gets invaded, rockets and missiles are fired at it, its citizens are killed.

    And they're not allowed to fight back.

    It's almost a parody.
    It's not just not a parody, it is literally the Russian position since day 1 of the war.

    Never mind the many, many instances of attacks by Russia on energy facilities in Ukraine. It is amazing how some people can be determinedly persistent in ensuring they do not know basic facts about a situation. You'd have to work pretty hard to not know anything at all about what Russia has been up to, so that you can side with them whilst pretending you are not.
    That’s also the Israeli position on Iran.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,159

    Day 9 - 21.4m Les Moutiers Les Mauxfaits to Puyravault

    A really cool and misty morning; the sun didn’t come out until about 2pm. I managed to get 14 miles in by booking time. I booked another mobile home, but this time in someone’s garden

    It was in a lovely, tranquil spot next to a large pond. I had food to cook, but only one beer. I managed to sweet talk the host into giving me two more bottles of beer!

    Day 10 - 24m Puyravault to La Rochelle

    Day 11 - 4m so far in La Rochelle

    I got an early start, and was making good progress. I got to a point where I could walk on a path by a canal, or alongside a busy road. Obviously I picked the canal path. Three miles later I realised that the path was about to take a three mile detour from the canal. I pressed on by the canal thinking that it must have at least a little trail by it..

    I was wrong and had to backtrack to the three mile detour, it added about four miles to my day, which was the hottest day so far: 26°c

    I decided to stay two nights here and have landed in a really beautiful apartment right in the centre. I got all my washing on, then went out for dinner

    I found a really nice seafood restaurant and had huge oysters and langoustines with a couple of glasses of a local Viognier

    Today I’ve been eating, drinking and exploring a bit. I’m now sat by one of the old towers by the port, wondering what to have for dinner..

    Last night’s dinner


    Looks like a nice starter.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,323
    If Angela Rayner does end up as PM then she needs to buzz Melania to get some fashion tips .

    The First Lady always looks fabulous .
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 66,588

    I don't want to alarm anybody but my firm's worst worst case scenario involved the break up of OPEC.

    Then your firm is doing its job.

    Any organisation stress tests every worst case scenario to understand and test the boundaries of its resilience.

    It's not a prediction; it's a planning tool.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 18,476
    Cookie said:

    Two things that were supposed to happen after Brexit but haven't: it hasn't brought the UK and US closer together (in fact the opposite has happened), and it hasn't made it easier for the rest of the EU to deepen its integration without the British acting as a drag. From this I deduce that the UK was a better fit within the EU than people thought.

    Interesting points.
    I think there is a big orange reason behind #1 - though - although it would be harder for the UK to move towards the US with Trump in power, from the other point of view, Trump is just the latest in a long line of presidents who haven't liked us much: I think you have to go back to Bush before you find a president who was pro-UK (obviously I'd take the antipathy of Biden or Obama over, well, whatever Trump is).
    #2 is more interesting. Why has the ratchet come to a halt since Brexit? Has it taken Brexit to move the EU machine into a more pragmatic mode?
    I've said this before, but if only EU integration had come to a halt before the Lisbon treaty, or even the Maastricht treaty.
    Trump is effect not cause. He is symptomatic of deeper cultural forces that continue to push the UK and US further apart, IMHO.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,879
    nico67 said:

    If Angela Rayner does end up as PM then she needs to buzz Melania to get some fashion tips .

    The First Lady always looks fabulous .

    In a parallel world, it would have been Diana accompanying Charles to meet Trump and Melania. Imagine the media circus for that.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,923
    nico67 said:

    If Angela Rayner does end up as PM then she needs to buzz Melania to get some fashion tips .

    The First Lady always looks fabulous .

    Yes very true . Although Angela Rayner has about 100 reasons not to be PM ahead of fashion sense . Never noticed it either way with her but defo the First Lady does look so elegant
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,789
    nico67 said:

    If Angela Rayner does end up as PM then she needs to buzz Melania to get some fashion tips .

    The First Lady always looks fabulous .

    Should've gone to Specsavers!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,816

    nico67 said:

    If Angela Rayner does end up as PM then she needs to buzz Melania to get some fashion tips .

    The First Lady always looks fabulous .

    In a parallel world, it would have been Diana accompanying Charles to meet Trump and Melania. Imagine the media circus for that.
    But which one despised their husband the most?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,816
    MattW said:

    Interesting words by the new UK Ambassador to the US, leaked to the FT !

    A soothsayer who predicted the fall of Starmer way back in February.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 3,257
    carnforth said:

    FF43 said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    False precision is rife in this debate, as Fishing says, but one thing we can say for sure about Brexit is that people who voted for it on the grounds it would help the economy are still waiting for some decent evidence of it. The consensus is if anything the opposite. Ditto that it would make us stronger and more influential in the world. The opposite has transpired there too. Same on immigration. Far from taking the heat out of that it's become an even more contentious issue.

    Which leaves the sovereignty angle. That the point of Brexit was Brexit itself. It's a success by dint of having happened. For better or worse - with most metrics thus far indicating worse - we have taken back control. Forget all the rest, it is argued, this is the Brexit benefit. Pretty much the only one but nevertheless potentially big enough to justify almost a decade of division, paralysis and distraction.

    So what I'd like to ask Leave voters, given the importance of this, is do they feel it? Do they feel more sovereign now we aren't in the EU? Is the supposed Brexit dividend of being more in control something real and tangible to them? But wait, we don't have to ask them because the polls tell us the answer. Many of them now think it was a mistake and most of those who don't remain so hacked off they want to hand power to Nigel Farage and his bunch of chancers, fantasists and unsavouries. All in all, it's not a good report card.

    Dan Hannan's ludicrous article with his fantasy of life after Brexit springs to mind. That's what Brexiteers promised.

    Some in this thread suggest that the overall effect of Brexit on the economy, and perhaps more generally, was fairly minor. Maybe that's correct, but had that been the prospectus offered, would people have voted for Brexit? No.
    I remember that. Bit of a pipedream. Fwiw I can accept (without agreeing with) a pov that the economic impact is marginal. It's impossible to prove that stuff because so many things impact the economy.

    It's the 'sovereignty' argument that interests me more. I mean, technically, yes of course we have more now since less is pooled. But that for me is a reductive, superficial view of what sovereignty means.

    I'd rather pose a couple of practical questions. As a consequence of Brexit is Britain more influential in the world? As a consequence of Brexit do the people of Britain have more control over their lives? It's hard to answer yes to either.

    So what was it all for other than to gratify and empower a crew of reactionary right wing ideologues plus Boris Johnson? Answers on a postcard.
    Broadly I would say Brexit has two upsides and four downsides for the UK.

    Upsides:
    1. Flexibility. The EU takes forever to come to decision. The UK can be more nimble, eg Covid vaccines.
    2. Greater accountability due to decisions being made closer to those affected by them.

    Downsides:
    1. Stresses the integrity of the United Kingdom. I think Northern Ireland is probably gone long term. Scotland less certain but Brexit doesn't help. Both nations voted Remain for good reasons. If you are an English, Irish or Scottish nationalist you obviously don't care about the existence of the United Kingdom, but it is the country we live in.
    2. Loss of personal freedom and liberty, particularly to trade and go where you want This aim is incompatible with greater government control afforded by Brexit, eg on immigration. Some people prefer government control to liberty, which is why I haven't put that as an upside. Mileages may vary on this.
    3. Economic loss - the subject of this series of headers
    4. Loss of influence. This a lot more hard nosed than people think. It means getting more of what we want as a nation.

    I do think the European Union is a net force for the good, so I am glad it exists, regardless of UK membership. Talking here about how Brexit affects the UK specifically.
    Brexit makes Scottish Independence harder, and therefore less likely. On Ireland you might be right.
    South doesn't want an economic basket case and is happy for the UK to have it. The GF allows northerns to cosplay being Irish or British so makes little difference to their outlook. Both can sit in a delusion about being one or the other.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,789

    Sandpit said:

    Not just the refinery at Tuapse on fire, the streets outside are on fire too.

    https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/2049133334773575811

    Presumably Russia now has the right to blow up all Ukrainian energy facilities?
    They've been doing that for the past four years!
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,323
    edited April 28

    nico67 said:

    If Angela Rayner does end up as PM then she needs to buzz Melania to get some fashion tips .

    The First Lady always looks fabulous .

    Should've gone to Specsavers!
    I know she’s vacuous and a gold digger but she knows to how to dress . Rayner needs to drop those silly outfits with the pouffy shoulders and some of those hideous colours .

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,789

    nico67 said:

    If Angela Rayner does end up as PM then she needs to buzz Melania to get some fashion tips .

    The First Lady always looks fabulous .

    Yes very true . Although Angela Rayner has about 100 reasons not to be PM ahead of fashion sense . Never noticed it either way with her but defo the First Lady does look so elegant
    "Back to Slovenia!"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YbaGry1F_VU
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,958
    If UAE are looking to do bespoke deals for energy over the next few years then it feels a pretty safe bet than Man City will continue to avoid/delay their points deduction/relegation.
  • Just been on a casual drive around Lake Rwanyakazinga and saw hippos, fish eagles, impala, guinea fowl, nightjar, baboons, crocodiles, buffalo, zebras, waterbuck and a lion that was so stuffed from a recent feast the blood was dripping down his jaw and face

    All very exciting. But at one point we turned a corner and there, suddenly, was a big old bull elephant in full musth, wildly swinging his trunk and pawing the ground and walking fast towards us as he prepared to charge. He was quite capable of turning over the jeep and stamping us all to death

    He didn’t. He got distracted and wandered off to chase something else



  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,225
    edited April 28

    Sandpit said:

    Not just the refinery at Tuapse on fire, the streets outside are on fire too.

    https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/2049133334773575811

    Presumably Russia now has the right to blow up all Ukrainian energy facilities?
    They were already doing so. Ukraine has offered an energy ceasefire several times, and Russia isn't interested.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 33,520

    Day 9 - 21.4m Les Moutiers Les Mauxfaits to Puyravault

    A really cool and misty morning; the sun didn’t come out until about 2pm. I managed to get 14 miles in by booking time. I booked another mobile home, but this time in someone’s garden

    It was in a lovely, tranquil spot next to a large pond. I had food to cook, but only one beer. I managed to sweet talk the host into giving me two more bottles of beer!

    Day 10 - 24m Puyravault to La Rochelle

    Day 11 - 4m so far in La Rochelle

    I got an early start, and was making good progress. I got to a point where I could walk on a path by a canal, or alongside a busy road. Obviously I picked the canal path. Three miles later I realised that the path was about to take a three mile detour from the canal. I pressed on by the canal thinking that it must have at least a little trail by it..

    I was wrong and had to backtrack to the three mile detour, it added about four miles to my day, which was the hottest day so far: 26°c

    I decided to stay two nights here and have landed in a really beautiful apartment right in the centre. I got all my washing on, then went out for dinner

    I found a really nice seafood restaurant and had huge oysters and langoustines with a couple of glasses of a local Viognier

    Today I’ve been eating, drinking and exploring a bit. I’m now sat by one of the old towers by the port, wondering what to have for dinner..

    Last night’s dinner


    Wot No Greens?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 50,721
    edited April 28

    FF43 said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    False precision is rife in this debate, as Fishing says, but one thing we can say for sure about Brexit is that people who voted for it on the grounds it would help the economy are still waiting for some decent evidence of it. The consensus is if anything the opposite. Ditto that it would make us stronger and more influential in the world. The opposite has transpired there too. Same on immigration. Far from taking the heat out of that it's become an even more contentious issue.

    Which leaves the sovereignty angle. That the point of Brexit was Brexit itself. It's a success by dint of having happened. For better or worse - with most metrics thus far indicating worse - we have taken back control. Forget all the rest, it is argued, this is the Brexit benefit. Pretty much the only one but nevertheless potentially big enough to justify almost a decade of division, paralysis and distraction.

    So what I'd like to ask Leave voters, given the importance of this, is do they feel it? Do they feel more sovereign now we aren't in the EU? Is the supposed Brexit dividend of being more in control something real and tangible to them? But wait, we don't have to ask them because the polls tell us the answer. Many of them now think it was a mistake and most of those who don't remain so hacked off they want to hand power to Nigel Farage and his bunch of chancers, fantasists and unsavouries. All in all, it's not a good report card.

    Dan Hannan's ludicrous article with his fantasy of life after Brexit springs to mind. That's what Brexiteers promised.

    Some in this thread suggest that the overall effect of Brexit on the economy, and perhaps more generally, was fairly minor. Maybe that's correct, but had that been the prospectus offered, would people have voted for Brexit? No.
    I remember that. Bit of a pipedream. Fwiw I can accept (without agreeing with) a pov that the economic impact is marginal. It's impossible to prove that stuff because so many things impact the economy.

    It's the 'sovereignty' argument that interests me more. I mean, technically, yes of course we have more now since less is pooled. But that for me is a reductive, superficial view of what sovereignty means.

    I'd rather pose a couple of practical questions. As a consequence of Brexit is Britain more influential in the world? As a consequence of Brexit do the people of Britain have more control over their lives? It's hard to answer yes to either.

    So what was it all for other than to gratify and empower a crew of reactionary right wing ideologues plus Boris Johnson? Answers on a postcard.
    Broadly I would say Brexit has two upsides and four downsides for the UK.

    Upsides:
    1. Flexibility. The EU takes forever to come to decision. The UK can be more nimble, eg Covid vaccines.
    2. Greater accountability due to decisions being made closer to those affected by them.

    Downsides:
    1. Stresses the integrity of the United Kingdom. I think Northern Ireland is probably gone long term. Scotland less certain but Brexit doesn't help. Both nations voted Remain for good reasons. If you are an English, Irish or Scottish nationalist you obviously don't care about the existence of the United Kingdom, but it is the country we live in.
    2. Loss of personal freedom and liberty particularly of trade and movement. This aim is incompatible with greater government control afforded by Brexit, eg on immigration, which some people prefer to liberty, which is why I haven't put that as an upside. Mileages may vary on this.
    3. Economic loss - the subject of this series of headers
    4. Loss of influence. This a lot more hard nosed than people think. It means getting more of what we want as a nation.

    I do think the European Union is a net force for the good, so I am glad it exists, regardless of UK membership. Bit talking here about how Brexit affects the UK specifically.
    I agree as a rare voter of both reform and remain
    That is an odd combo. Then again, I'm a sound money, hard left, social democrat, so I can talk.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 34,523

    FF43 said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    False precision is rife in this debate, as Fishing says, but one thing we can say for sure about Brexit is that people who voted for it on the grounds it would help the economy are still waiting for some decent evidence of it. The consensus is if anything the opposite. Ditto that it would make us stronger and more influential in the world. The opposite has transpired there too. Same on immigration. Far from taking the heat out of that it's become an even more contentious issue.

    Which leaves the sovereignty angle. That the point of Brexit was Brexit itself. It's a success by dint of having happened. For better or worse - with most metrics thus far indicating worse - we have taken back control. Forget all the rest, it is argued, this is the Brexit benefit. Pretty much the only one but nevertheless potentially big enough to justify almost a decade of division, paralysis and distraction.

    So what I'd like to ask Leave voters, given the importance of this, is do they feel it? Do they feel more sovereign now we aren't in the EU? Is the supposed Brexit dividend of being more in control something real and tangible to them? But wait, we don't have to ask them because the polls tell us the answer. Many of them now think it was a mistake and most of those who don't remain so hacked off they want to hand power to Nigel Farage and his bunch of chancers, fantasists and unsavouries. All in all, it's not a good report card.

    Dan Hannan's ludicrous article with his fantasy of life after Brexit springs to mind. That's what Brexiteers promised.

    Some in this thread suggest that the overall effect of Brexit on the economy, and perhaps more generally, was fairly minor. Maybe that's correct, but had that been the prospectus offered, would people have voted for Brexit? No.
    I remember that. Bit of a pipedream. Fwiw I can accept (without agreeing with) a pov that the economic impact is marginal. It's impossible to prove that stuff because so many things impact the economy.

    It's the 'sovereignty' argument that interests me more. I mean, technically, yes of course we have more now since less is pooled. But that for me is a reductive, superficial view of what sovereignty means.

    I'd rather pose a couple of practical questions. As a consequence of Brexit is Britain more influential in the world? As a consequence of Brexit do the people of Britain have more control over their lives? It's hard to answer yes to either.

    So what was it all for other than to gratify and empower a crew of reactionary right wing ideologues plus Boris Johnson? Answers on a postcard.
    Broadly I would say Brexit has two upsides and four downsides for the UK.

    Upsides:
    1. Flexibility. The EU takes forever to come to decision. The UK can be more nimble, eg Covid vaccines.
    2. Greater accountability due to decisions being made closer to those affected by them.

    Downsides:
    1. Stresses the integrity of the United Kingdom. I think Northern Ireland is probably gone long term. Scotland less certain but Brexit doesn't help. Both nations voted Remain for good reasons. If you are an English, Irish or Scottish nationalist you obviously don't care about the existence of the United Kingdom, but it is the country we live in.
    2. Loss of personal freedom and liberty, particularly to trade and go where you want This aim is incompatible with greater government control afforded by Brexit, eg on immigration. Some people prefer government control to liberty, which is why I haven't put that as an upside. Mileages may vary on this.
    3. Economic loss - the subject of this series of headers
    4. Loss of influence. This a lot more hard nosed than people think. It means getting more of what we want as a nation.

    I do think the European Union is a net force for the good, so I am glad it exists, regardless of UK membership. Talking here about how Brexit affects the UK specifically.
    Our independent approach on COVID vaccines was allowed under the EU rules.
    Actually no. The EU tried to prevent countries from starting their vaccination campaigns independently because they wanted a single unified EU operation. They were late in authorising vaccines and were almost 3 months later than the UK in ordering vaccines.

    One reason the UK vaccines rollout was far more successful is that we embedded the certifying authorities into the testing process rather than waiting until the process was completed before starting certification as the EU did.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,789
    Leon said:

    Just been on a casual drive around Lake Rwanyakazinga and saw hippos, fish eagles, impala, guinea fowl, nightjar, baboons, crocodiles, buffalo, zebras, waterbuck and a lion that was so stuffed from a recent feast the blood was dripping down his jaw and face

    All very exciting. But at one point we turned a corner and there, suddenly, was a big old bull elephant in full musth, wildly swinging his trunk and pawing the ground and walking fast towards us as he prepared to charge. He was quite capable of turning over the jeep and stamping us all to death

    He didn’t. He got distracted and wandered off to chase something else



    Donald J. Trunk.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,816

    When isvthe vote on Starmer

    About 6.00pm

    Yougov 28th April 2026

    Should be an official enquiry

    61%

    Should not

    20%
    Try this one for size.

    https://savanta.com/eu/knowledge-centre/poll/beergate-poll-9-may/
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 19,659

    FF43 said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    False precision is rife in this debate, as Fishing says, but one thing we can say for sure about Brexit is that people who voted for it on the grounds it would help the economy are still waiting for some decent evidence of it. The consensus is if anything the opposite. Ditto that it would make us stronger and more influential in the world. The opposite has transpired there too. Same on immigration. Far from taking the heat out of that it's become an even more contentious issue.

    Which leaves the sovereignty angle. That the point of Brexit was Brexit itself. It's a success by dint of having happened. For better or worse - with most metrics thus far indicating worse - we have taken back control. Forget all the rest, it is argued, this is the Brexit benefit. Pretty much the only one but nevertheless potentially big enough to justify almost a decade of division, paralysis and distraction.

    So what I'd like to ask Leave voters, given the importance of this, is do they feel it? Do they feel more sovereign now we aren't in the EU? Is the supposed Brexit dividend of being more in control something real and tangible to them? But wait, we don't have to ask them because the polls tell us the answer. Many of them now think it was a mistake and most of those who don't remain so hacked off they want to hand power to Nigel Farage and his bunch of chancers, fantasists and unsavouries. All in all, it's not a good report card.

    Dan Hannan's ludicrous article with his fantasy of life after Brexit springs to mind. That's what Brexiteers promised.

    Some in this thread suggest that the overall effect of Brexit on the economy, and perhaps more generally, was fairly minor. Maybe that's correct, but had that been the prospectus offered, would people have voted for Brexit? No.
    I remember that. Bit of a pipedream. Fwiw I can accept (without agreeing with) a pov that the economic impact is marginal. It's impossible to prove that stuff because so many things impact the economy.

    It's the 'sovereignty' argument that interests me more. I mean, technically, yes of course we have more now since less is pooled. But that for me is a reductive, superficial view of what sovereignty means.

    I'd rather pose a couple of practical questions. As a consequence of Brexit is Britain more influential in the world? As a consequence of Brexit do the people of Britain have more control over their lives? It's hard to answer yes to either.

    So what was it all for other than to gratify and empower a crew of reactionary right wing ideologues plus Boris Johnson? Answers on a postcard.
    Broadly I would say Brexit has two upsides and four downsides for the UK.

    Upsides:
    1. Flexibility. The EU takes forever to come to decision. The UK can be more nimble, eg Covid vaccines.
    2. Greater accountability due to decisions being made closer to those affected by them.

    Downsides:
    1. Stresses the integrity of the United Kingdom. I think Northern Ireland is probably gone long term. Scotland less certain but Brexit doesn't help. Both nations voted Remain for good reasons. If you are an English, Irish or Scottish nationalist you obviously don't care about the existence of the United Kingdom, but it is the country we live in.
    2. Loss of personal freedom and liberty, particularly to trade and go where you want This aim is incompatible with greater government control afforded by Brexit, eg on immigration. Some people prefer government control to liberty, which is why I haven't put that as an upside. Mileages may vary on this.
    3. Economic loss - the subject of this series of headers
    4. Loss of influence. This a lot more hard nosed than people think. It means getting more of what we want as a nation.

    I do think the European Union is a net force for the good, so I am glad it exists, regardless of UK membership. Talking here about how Brexit affects the UK specifically.
    The loss of influence argument works more in theory than in practice.

    In theory we're no longer at the top table in Europe; in practice, it's the E3 states of Britain, France and Germany setting out a position on Iran and Britain has obviously been very influential over the course of events in Ukraine (more so than post-2014).
    I would say the loss of influence through Brexit is real and of greater consequence than people think. Nevertheless it's a side effect of leaving rather than a reason to stay in the EU per se. Inhabitants of smaller countries don't spend a lot of time worrying their country has less influence than bigger countries.
  • Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    https://x.com/reuters/status/2049103389854929105

    BREAKING: The United Arab Emirates said it quit OPEC and OPEC+, dealing a heavy blow to the oil exporting groups and their de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, at a time when the Iran war has caused a historic energy shock and unsettled the global economy

    Watch for oil prices to start falling. UAE is about to start pumping like crazy to stop Iran and Russia from benefitting from the situation.
    And Trump has just said that Iranians have told him they are 'in a state of collapse' and want him to open Hormuz asap.

    Do we believe him or not?
    Is there a 'y' in the day?

    If the answer's yes, the answer's no.
    Is there only one day without a "y" in it? Christmas Eve. I mean, you'd never call Christmas Eve "Wednesday" or whatever. It's Xmas Eve.
    There are lots - New Ears Eve, Late Ma Bank Holibobs, International Women's Dave... the list goes on.
    All hallows eve,
    Bonfire Night.
    Burns night
    Tomorrow
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,789
    Oh, almost forgot:

    NINE DAYS TO SAVE THE LABOUR PARTY!
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,225
    Battlebus said:

    carnforth said:

    FF43 said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    False precision is rife in this debate, as Fishing says, but one thing we can say for sure about Brexit is that people who voted for it on the grounds it would help the economy are still waiting for some decent evidence of it. The consensus is if anything the opposite. Ditto that it would make us stronger and more influential in the world. The opposite has transpired there too. Same on immigration. Far from taking the heat out of that it's become an even more contentious issue.

    Which leaves the sovereignty angle. That the point of Brexit was Brexit itself. It's a success by dint of having happened. For better or worse - with most metrics thus far indicating worse - we have taken back control. Forget all the rest, it is argued, this is the Brexit benefit. Pretty much the only one but nevertheless potentially big enough to justify almost a decade of division, paralysis and distraction.

    So what I'd like to ask Leave voters, given the importance of this, is do they feel it? Do they feel more sovereign now we aren't in the EU? Is the supposed Brexit dividend of being more in control something real and tangible to them? But wait, we don't have to ask them because the polls tell us the answer. Many of them now think it was a mistake and most of those who don't remain so hacked off they want to hand power to Nigel Farage and his bunch of chancers, fantasists and unsavouries. All in all, it's not a good report card.

    Dan Hannan's ludicrous article with his fantasy of life after Brexit springs to mind. That's what Brexiteers promised.

    Some in this thread suggest that the overall effect of Brexit on the economy, and perhaps more generally, was fairly minor. Maybe that's correct, but had that been the prospectus offered, would people have voted for Brexit? No.
    I remember that. Bit of a pipedream. Fwiw I can accept (without agreeing with) a pov that the economic impact is marginal. It's impossible to prove that stuff because so many things impact the economy.

    It's the 'sovereignty' argument that interests me more. I mean, technically, yes of course we have more now since less is pooled. But that for me is a reductive, superficial view of what sovereignty means.

    I'd rather pose a couple of practical questions. As a consequence of Brexit is Britain more influential in the world? As a consequence of Brexit do the people of Britain have more control over their lives? It's hard to answer yes to either.

    So what was it all for other than to gratify and empower a crew of reactionary right wing ideologues plus Boris Johnson? Answers on a postcard.
    Broadly I would say Brexit has two upsides and four downsides for the UK.

    Upsides:
    1. Flexibility. The EU takes forever to come to decision. The UK can be more nimble, eg Covid vaccines.
    2. Greater accountability due to decisions being made closer to those affected by them.

    Downsides:
    1. Stresses the integrity of the United Kingdom. I think Northern Ireland is probably gone long term. Scotland less certain but Brexit doesn't help. Both nations voted Remain for good reasons. If you are an English, Irish or Scottish nationalist you obviously don't care about the existence of the United Kingdom, but it is the country we live in.
    2. Loss of personal freedom and liberty, particularly to trade and go where you want This aim is incompatible with greater government control afforded by Brexit, eg on immigration. Some people prefer government control to liberty, which is why I haven't put that as an upside. Mileages may vary on this.
    3. Economic loss - the subject of this series of headers
    4. Loss of influence. This a lot more hard nosed than people think. It means getting more of what we want as a nation.

    I do think the European Union is a net force for the good, so I am glad it exists, regardless of UK membership. Talking here about how Brexit affects the UK specifically.
    Brexit makes Scottish Independence harder, and therefore less likely. On Ireland you might be right.
    South doesn't want an economic basket case and is happy for the UK to have it. The GF allows northerns to cosplay being Irish or British so makes little difference to their outlook. Both can sit in a delusion about being one or the other.
    Why do you think the Republic doesn't want Irish unity?

    All the polling evidence suggests that voters in the Republic think that the cost will be worth it, or they make-believe that Irish unity will see increased growth in the North so that the cost goes away (aided by lavish quantities of US investment).

    The main thing that gives voters in the Republic pause is the potential for loyalist paramilitaries to start a bombing campaign (everyone is glad the fighting has mostly stopped and don't particularly want to kick the wasps nest) and the idea of adding DUP TDs to the Dail.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 34,523
    As an aside, it has probably already been mentioned on here but according to the IMF the UK has regained 5th place in the largest GDP rankings.

    I am amused because it obviously something for all sides to bemoan. Right wing Brexiteer types will hate it because it happened under Starmer's reign and left wing Remainer types will hate it because it undermines the argument that Brexit was an economic disaster.

    I don't begin to actually understand what is going on. I leave it to you clever PB types to make the case one way or another.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 29,513

    FF43 said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    False precision is rife in this debate, as Fishing says, but one thing we can say for sure about Brexit is that people who voted for it on the grounds it would help the economy are still waiting for some decent evidence of it. The consensus is if anything the opposite. Ditto that it would make us stronger and more influential in the world. The opposite has transpired there too. Same on immigration. Far from taking the heat out of that it's become an even more contentious issue.

    Which leaves the sovereignty angle. That the point of Brexit was Brexit itself. It's a success by dint of having happened. For better or worse - with most metrics thus far indicating worse - we have taken back control. Forget all the rest, it is argued, this is the Brexit benefit. Pretty much the only one but nevertheless potentially big enough to justify almost a decade of division, paralysis and distraction.

    So what I'd like to ask Leave voters, given the importance of this, is do they feel it? Do they feel more sovereign now we aren't in the EU? Is the supposed Brexit dividend of being more in control something real and tangible to them? But wait, we don't have to ask them because the polls tell us the answer. Many of them now think it was a mistake and most of those who don't remain so hacked off they want to hand power to Nigel Farage and his bunch of chancers, fantasists and unsavouries. All in all, it's not a good report card.

    Dan Hannan's ludicrous article with his fantasy of life after Brexit springs to mind. That's what Brexiteers promised.

    Some in this thread suggest that the overall effect of Brexit on the economy, and perhaps more generally, was fairly minor. Maybe that's correct, but had that been the prospectus offered, would people have voted for Brexit? No.
    I remember that. Bit of a pipedream. Fwiw I can accept (without agreeing with) a pov that the economic impact is marginal. It's impossible to prove that stuff because so many things impact the economy.

    It's the 'sovereignty' argument that interests me more. I mean, technically, yes of course we have more now since less is pooled. But that for me is a reductive, superficial view of what sovereignty means.

    I'd rather pose a couple of practical questions. As a consequence of Brexit is Britain more influential in the world? As a consequence of Brexit do the people of Britain have more control over their lives? It's hard to answer yes to either.

    So what was it all for other than to gratify and empower a crew of reactionary right wing ideologues plus Boris Johnson? Answers on a postcard.
    Broadly I would say Brexit has two upsides and four downsides for the UK.

    Upsides:
    1. Flexibility. The EU takes forever to come to decision. The UK can be more nimble, eg Covid vaccines.
    2. Greater accountability due to decisions being made closer to those affected by them.

    Downsides:
    1. Stresses the integrity of the United Kingdom. I think Northern Ireland is probably gone long term. Scotland less certain but Brexit doesn't help. Both nations voted Remain for good reasons. If you are an English, Irish or Scottish nationalist you obviously don't care about the existence of the United Kingdom, but it is the country we live in.
    2. Loss of personal freedom and liberty, particularly to trade and go where you want This aim is incompatible with greater government control afforded by Brexit, eg on immigration. Some people prefer government control to liberty, which is why I haven't put that as an upside. Mileages may vary on this.
    3. Economic loss - the subject of this series of headers
    4. Loss of influence. This a lot more hard nosed than people think. It means getting more of what we want as a nation.

    I do think the European Union is a net force for the good, so I am glad it exists, regardless of UK membership. Talking here about how Brexit affects the UK specifically.
    Our independent approach on COVID vaccines was allowed under the EU rules.
    Actually no. The EU tried to prevent countries from starting their vaccination campaigns independently because they wanted a single unified EU operation. They were late in authorising vaccines and were almost 3 months later than the UK in ordering vaccines.

    One reason the UK vaccines rollout was far more successful is that we embedded the certifying authorities into the testing process rather than waiting until the process was completed before starting certification as the EU did.
    It should be remembered that there were people loudly demanding that the UK join the EU vaccination program:

    The UK’s decision not to join an EU plan to distribute a potential coronavirus vaccine to its most vulnerable citizens has been described as “unforgivable” and condemned by health charities and opposition politicians.

    On Friday, Matt Hancock confirmed that the UK would not be participating in the scheme. The health secretary said the UK’s position outside the EU would have left it without a decision-making role as negotiations over purchases were made.

    ...


    In response to the UK government’s decision to walk away from the latest initiative, Munira Wilson, the Liberal Democrats’ health spokeswoman, said: “When coronavirus is such a threat to people’s lives and livelihoods, ministers should leave no stone unturned in their bid to end the pandemic.

    “This government’s stubborn unwillingness to work with the European Union through the current crisis is unforgivable.

    “The crisis does not stop at any national border. It is about time the prime minister started showing leadership, including fully participating in all EU efforts to secure critical medical supplies and a vaccine.”


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/10/uk-poised-to-shun-eu-coronavirus-vaccine-scheme
  • FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    False precision is rife in this debate, as Fishing says, but one thing we can say for sure about Brexit is that people who voted for it on the grounds it would help the economy are still waiting for some decent evidence of it. The consensus is if anything the opposite. Ditto that it would make us stronger and more influential in the world. The opposite has transpired there too. Same on immigration. Far from taking the heat out of that it's become an even more contentious issue.

    Which leaves the sovereignty angle. That the point of Brexit was Brexit itself. It's a success by dint of having happened. For better or worse - with most metrics thus far indicating worse - we have taken back control. Forget all the rest, it is argued, this is the Brexit benefit. Pretty much the only one but nevertheless potentially big enough to justify almost a decade of division, paralysis and distraction.

    So what I'd like to ask Leave voters, given the importance of this, is do they feel it? Do they feel more sovereign now we aren't in the EU? Is the supposed Brexit dividend of being more in control something real and tangible to them? But wait, we don't have to ask them because the polls tell us the answer. Many of them now think it was a mistake and most of those who don't remain so hacked off they want to hand power to Nigel Farage and his bunch of chancers, fantasists and unsavouries. All in all, it's not a good report card.

    Dan Hannan's ludicrous article with his fantasy of life after Brexit springs to mind. That's what Brexiteers promised.

    Some in this thread suggest that the overall effect of Brexit on the economy, and perhaps more generally, was fairly minor. Maybe that's correct, but had that been the prospectus offered, would people have voted for Brexit? No.
    I remember that. Bit of a pipedream. Fwiw I can accept (without agreeing with) a pov that the economic impact is marginal. It's impossible to prove that stuff because so many things impact the economy.

    It's the 'sovereignty' argument that interests me more. I mean, technically, yes of course we have more now since less is pooled. But that for me is a reductive, superficial view of what sovereignty means.

    I'd rather pose a couple of practical questions. As a consequence of Brexit is Britain more influential in the world? As a consequence of Brexit do the people of Britain have more control over their lives? It's hard to answer yes to either.

    So what was it all for other than to gratify and empower a crew of reactionary right wing ideologues plus Boris Johnson? Answers on a postcard.
    Broadly I would say Brexit has two upsides and four downsides for the UK.

    Upsides:
    1. Flexibility. The EU takes forever to come to decision. The UK can be more nimble, eg Covid vaccines.
    2. Greater accountability due to decisions being made closer to those affected by them.

    Downsides:
    1. Stresses the integrity of the United Kingdom. I think Northern Ireland is probably gone long term. Scotland less certain but Brexit doesn't help. Both nations voted Remain for good reasons. If you are an English, Irish or Scottish nationalist you obviously don't care about the existence of the United Kingdom, but it is the country we live in.
    2. Loss of personal freedom and liberty, particularly to trade and go where you want This aim is incompatible with greater government control afforded by Brexit, eg on immigration. Some people prefer government control to liberty, which is why I haven't put that as an upside. Mileages may vary on this.
    3. Economic loss - the subject of this series of headers
    4. Loss of influence. This a lot more hard nosed than people think. It means getting more of what we want as a nation.

    I do think the European Union is a net force for the good, so I am glad it exists, regardless of UK membership. Talking here about how Brexit affects the UK specifically.
    The loss of influence argument works more in theory than in practice.

    In theory we're no longer at the top table in Europe; in practice, it's the E3 states of Britain, France and Germany setting out a position on Iran and Britain has obviously been very influential over the course of events in Ukraine (more so than post-2014).
    I would say the loss of influence through Brexit is real and of greater consequence than people think. Nevertheless it's a side effect of leaving rather than a reason to stay in the EU per se. Inhabitants of smaller countries don't spend a lot of time worrying their country has less influence than bigger countries.
    As a Leaver I agree with this. We have obviously lost diplomatic and geopolitical clout by quitting the EU. One needs to be honest

    On the upside we have gained important freedoms that we haven’t even tried to exploit (and Remainers seldom recognise this). It needs a proper right wing government with a clever leadership and some tungsten cullions to do that

    Clearly, sadly, we could be waiting a long time
  • MattWMattW Posts: 33,520
    edited April 28
    Taz said:

    MattW said:

    Interesting words by the new UK Ambassador to the US, leaked to the FT !

    How marvellously vague

    X style vague posting comes to PB.
    I don't have a means to read the FT, unfortunately. Donations of guest accounts would be most welcome !!

    It is the UK Ambassador talking to 6th formers in February, and being recorded. And the FT seems to have sat on it until now.

    He said things like predicting Starmer stepping down after the locals, and comparing the US failure to address Epstein associates at senior Government level to the UK, and saying that the USA's only special relationship is with Israel.

    There's commentary here from Medias Touch, but since their habit is to emphasise the anti-Trump aspects quite heavily, I did not link:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hXThBc3ftGs

    Something is on the BBC now:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1l25qd43nro

    Expect some .... fun.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,225

    As an aside, it has probably already been mentioned on here but according to the IMF the UK has regained 5th place in the largest GDP rankings.

    I am amused because it obviously something for all sides to bemoan. Right wing Brexiteer types will hate it because it happened under Starmer's reign and left wing Remainer types will hate it because it undermines the argument that Brexit was an economic disaster.

    I don't begin to actually understand what is going on. I leave it to you clever PB types to make the case one way or another.

    The Indian economy is really suffering at the moment due to Trump's tariffs. The value of the Rupee has been sliding for quite a while. So I guess there's a clutch of countries (5th-7th, I assume Britain, India and France) who are all struggling and look more like they're competing to be 7th rather than competing to be 5th.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,198
    MattW said:

    Day 9 - 21.4m Les Moutiers Les Mauxfaits to Puyravault

    A really cool and misty morning; the sun didn’t come out until about 2pm. I managed to get 14 miles in by booking time. I booked another mobile home, but this time in someone’s garden

    It was in a lovely, tranquil spot next to a large pond. I had food to cook, but only one beer. I managed to sweet talk the host into giving me two more bottles of beer!

    Day 10 - 24m Puyravault to La Rochelle

    Day 11 - 4m so far in La Rochelle

    I got an early start, and was making good progress. I got to a point where I could walk on a path by a canal, or alongside a busy road. Obviously I picked the canal path. Three miles later I realised that the path was about to take a three mile detour from the canal. I pressed on by the canal thinking that it must have at least a little trail by it..

    I was wrong and had to backtrack to the three mile detour, it added about four miles to my day, which was the hottest day so far: 26°c

    I decided to stay two nights here and have landed in a really beautiful apartment right in the centre. I got all my washing on, then went out for dinner

    I found a really nice seafood restaurant and had huge oysters and langoustines with a couple of glasses of a local Viognier

    Today I’ve been eating, drinking and exploring a bit. I’m now sat by one of the old towers by the port, wondering what to have for dinner..

    Last night’s dinner


    Wot No Greens?
    There’s a lemon there, what more do you want?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,789

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    https://x.com/reuters/status/2049103389854929105

    BREAKING: The United Arab Emirates said it quit OPEC and OPEC+, dealing a heavy blow to the oil exporting groups and their de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, at a time when the Iran war has caused a historic energy shock and unsettled the global economy

    Watch for oil prices to start falling. UAE is about to start pumping like crazy to stop Iran and Russia from benefitting from the situation.
    And Trump has just said that Iranians have told him they are 'in a state of collapse' and want him to open Hormuz asap.

    Do we believe him or not?
    Is there a 'y' in the day?

    If the answer's yes, the answer's no.
    Is there only one day without a "y" in it? Christmas Eve. I mean, you'd never call Christmas Eve "Wednesday" or whatever. It's Xmas Eve.
    There are lots - New Ears Eve, Late Ma Bank Holibobs, International Women's Dave... the list goes on.
    All hallows eve,
    Bonfire Night.
    Burns night
    Tomorrow
    ...Never Dies
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 25,464
    kinabalu said:

    FF43 said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    False precision is rife in this debate, as Fishing says, but one thing we can say for sure about Brexit is that people who voted for it on the grounds it would help the economy are still waiting for some decent evidence of it. The consensus is if anything the opposite. Ditto that it would make us stronger and more influential in the world. The opposite has transpired there too. Same on immigration. Far from taking the heat out of that it's become an even more contentious issue.

    Which leaves the sovereignty angle. That the point of Brexit was Brexit itself. It's a success by dint of having happened. For better or worse - with most metrics thus far indicating worse - we have taken back control. Forget all the rest, it is argued, this is the Brexit benefit. Pretty much the only one but nevertheless potentially big enough to justify almost a decade of division, paralysis and distraction.

    So what I'd like to ask Leave voters, given the importance of this, is do they feel it? Do they feel more sovereign now we aren't in the EU? Is the supposed Brexit dividend of being more in control something real and tangible to them? But wait, we don't have to ask them because the polls tell us the answer. Many of them now think it was a mistake and most of those who don't remain so hacked off they want to hand power to Nigel Farage and his bunch of chancers, fantasists and unsavouries. All in all, it's not a good report card.

    Dan Hannan's ludicrous article with his fantasy of life after Brexit springs to mind. That's what Brexiteers promised.

    Some in this thread suggest that the overall effect of Brexit on the economy, and perhaps more generally, was fairly minor. Maybe that's correct, but had that been the prospectus offered, would people have voted for Brexit? No.
    I remember that. Bit of a pipedream. Fwiw I can accept (without agreeing with) a pov that the economic impact is marginal. It's impossible to prove that stuff because so many things impact the economy.

    It's the 'sovereignty' argument that interests me more. I mean, technically, yes of course we have more now since less is pooled. But that for me is a reductive, superficial view of what sovereignty means.

    I'd rather pose a couple of practical questions. As a consequence of Brexit is Britain more influential in the world? As a consequence of Brexit do the people of Britain have more control over their lives? It's hard to answer yes to either.

    So what was it all for other than to gratify and empower a crew of reactionary right wing ideologues plus Boris Johnson? Answers on a postcard.
    Broadly I would say Brexit has two upsides and four downsides for the UK.

    Upsides:
    1. Flexibility. The EU takes forever to come to decision. The UK can be more nimble, eg Covid vaccines.
    2. Greater accountability due to decisions being made closer to those affected by them.

    Downsides:
    1. Stresses the integrity of the United Kingdom. I think Northern Ireland is probably gone long term. Scotland less certain but Brexit doesn't help. Both nations voted Remain for good reasons. If you are an English, Irish or Scottish nationalist you obviously don't care about the existence of the United Kingdom, but it is the country we live in.
    2. Loss of personal freedom and liberty particularly of trade and movement. This aim is incompatible with greater government control afforded by Brexit, eg on immigration, which some people prefer to liberty, which is why I haven't put that as an upside. Mileages may vary on this.
    3. Economic loss - the subject of this series of headers
    4. Loss of influence. This a lot more hard nosed than people think. It means getting more of what we want as a nation.

    I do think the European Union is a net force for the good, so I am glad it exists, regardless of UK membership. Bit talking here about how Brexit affects the UK specifically.
    I agree as a rare voter of both reform and remain
    That is an odd combo. Then again, I'm a sound money, hard left, social democrat, so I can talk.
    I often get accused of being in the wrong party by my comrades. Sometimes they say I should be Reform, other times they say I should be Green.

  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 5,542

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    https://x.com/reuters/status/2049103389854929105

    BREAKING: The United Arab Emirates said it quit OPEC and OPEC+, dealing a heavy blow to the oil exporting groups and their de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, at a time when the Iran war has caused a historic energy shock and unsettled the global economy

    Watch for oil prices to start falling. UAE is about to start pumping like crazy to stop Iran and Russia from benefitting from the situation.
    And Trump has just said that Iranians have told him they are 'in a state of collapse' and want him to open Hormuz asap.

    Do we believe him or not?
    Is there a 'y' in the day?

    If the answer's yes, the answer's no.
    Is there only one day without a "y" in it? Christmas Eve. I mean, you'd never call Christmas Eve "Wednesday" or whatever. It's Xmas Eve.
    There are lots - New Ears Eve, Late Ma Bank Holibobs, International Women's Dave... the list goes on.
    All hallows eve,
    Bonfire Night.
    Burns night
    Tomorrow
    Week tomorrow
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,181
    On the vote

    15 labour mps voted for

    53 labour abstentions though some would be paired
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 64,491

    FF43 said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    False precision is rife in this debate, as Fishing says, but one thing we can say for sure about Brexit is that people who voted for it on the grounds it would help the economy are still waiting for some decent evidence of it. The consensus is if anything the opposite. Ditto that it would make us stronger and more influential in the world. The opposite has transpired there too. Same on immigration. Far from taking the heat out of that it's become an even more contentious issue.

    Which leaves the sovereignty angle. That the point of Brexit was Brexit itself. It's a success by dint of having happened. For better or worse - with most metrics thus far indicating worse - we have taken back control. Forget all the rest, it is argued, this is the Brexit benefit. Pretty much the only one but nevertheless potentially big enough to justify almost a decade of division, paralysis and distraction.

    So what I'd like to ask Leave voters, given the importance of this, is do they feel it? Do they feel more sovereign now we aren't in the EU? Is the supposed Brexit dividend of being more in control something real and tangible to them? But wait, we don't have to ask them because the polls tell us the answer. Many of them now think it was a mistake and most of those who don't remain so hacked off they want to hand power to Nigel Farage and his bunch of chancers, fantasists and unsavouries. All in all, it's not a good report card.

    Dan Hannan's ludicrous article with his fantasy of life after Brexit springs to mind. That's what Brexiteers promised.

    Some in this thread suggest that the overall effect of Brexit on the economy, and perhaps more generally, was fairly minor. Maybe that's correct, but had that been the prospectus offered, would people have voted for Brexit? No.
    I remember that. Bit of a pipedream. Fwiw I can accept (without agreeing with) a pov that the economic impact is marginal. It's impossible to prove that stuff because so many things impact the economy.

    It's the 'sovereignty' argument that interests me more. I mean, technically, yes of course we have more now since less is pooled. But that for me is a reductive, superficial view of what sovereignty means.

    I'd rather pose a couple of practical questions. As a consequence of Brexit is Britain more influential in the world? As a consequence of Brexit do the people of Britain have more control over their lives? It's hard to answer yes to either.

    So what was it all for other than to gratify and empower a crew of reactionary right wing ideologues plus Boris Johnson? Answers on a postcard.
    Broadly I would say Brexit has two upsides and four downsides for the UK.

    Upsides:
    1. Flexibility. The EU takes forever to come to decision. The UK can be more nimble, eg Covid vaccines.
    2. Greater accountability due to decisions being made closer to those affected by them.

    Downsides:
    1. Stresses the integrity of the United Kingdom. I think Northern Ireland is probably gone long term. Scotland less certain but Brexit doesn't help. Both nations voted Remain for good reasons. If you are an English, Irish or Scottish nationalist you obviously don't care about the existence of the United Kingdom, but it is the country we live in.
    2. Loss of personal freedom and liberty, particularly to trade and go where you want This aim is incompatible with greater government control afforded by Brexit, eg on immigration. Some people prefer government control to liberty, which is why I haven't put that as an upside. Mileages may vary on this.
    3. Economic loss - the subject of this series of headers
    4. Loss of influence. This a lot more hard nosed than people think. It means getting more of what we want as a nation.

    I do think the European Union is a net force for the good, so I am glad it exists, regardless of UK membership. Talking here about how Brexit affects the UK specifically.
    Our independent approach on COVID vaccines was allowed under the EU rules.
    Actually no. The EU tried to prevent countries from starting their vaccination campaigns independently because they wanted a single unified EU operation. They were late in authorising vaccines and were almost 3 months later than the UK in ordering vaccines.

    One reason the UK vaccines rollout was far more successful is that we embedded the certifying authorities into the testing process rather than waiting until the process was completed before starting certification as the EU did.
    That's true, with the proviso that Hungary didn't join the EU program initially (despite being an EU member), and chose to buy Russian vaccines instead.

    I would also note (and this is not an EU related thing, but a criticism of our leaders) that we managed to waste our early vaccine lead by being utterly shit around restrictions and lockdown. That we managed to have a worse outcome -from both a freedom and an economic perspective- than many of our European peers despite getting vaccines earlier should be utterly humiliating for our leaders.
  • Dearest @BlancheLivermore - love the travel anecdotage

    Can’t we have more regular updates? They enliven the forum and I love pics of oysters
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,671
    MattW said:

    Taz said:

    MattW said:

    Interesting words by the new UK Ambassador to the US, leaked to the FT !

    How marvellously vague

    X style vague posting comes to PB.
    I don't have a means to read the FT, unfortunately. Donations of guest accounts would be most welcome !!

    It is the UK Ambassador talking to 6th formers in February, and being recorded. And the FT seems to have sat on it until now.

    He said things like predicting Starmer stepping down after the locals, and comparing the US failure to address Epstein associates at senior Government level to the UK, and saying that the USA's only special relationship is with Israel.

    There's commentary here from Medias Touch, but since their habit is to emphasise the anti-Trump aspects quite heavily, I did not link:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hXThBc3ftGs

    Something is on the BBC now:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1l25qd43nro

    Expect some .... fun.
    We need an enquiry into the vetting failure ...
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,241
    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    False precision is rife in this debate, as Fishing says, but one thing we can say for sure about Brexit is that people who voted for it on the grounds it would help the economy are still waiting for some decent evidence of it. The consensus is if anything the opposite. Ditto that it would make us stronger and more influential in the world. The opposite has transpired there too. Same on immigration. Far from taking the heat out of that it's become an even more contentious issue.

    Which leaves the sovereignty angle. That the point of Brexit was Brexit itself. It's a success by dint of having happened. For better or worse - with most metrics thus far indicating worse - we have taken back control. Forget all the rest, it is argued, this is the Brexit benefit. Pretty much the only one but nevertheless potentially big enough to justify almost a decade of division, paralysis and distraction.

    So what I'd like to ask Leave voters, given the importance of this, is do they feel it? Do they feel more sovereign now we aren't in the EU? Is the supposed Brexit dividend of being more in control something real and tangible to them? But wait, we don't have to ask them because the polls tell us the answer. Many of them now think it was a mistake and most of those who don't remain so hacked off they want to hand power to Nigel Farage and his bunch of chancers, fantasists and unsavouries. All in all, it's not a good report card.

    Dan Hannan's ludicrous article with his fantasy of life after Brexit springs to mind. That's what Brexiteers promised.

    Some in this thread suggest that the overall effect of Brexit on the economy, and perhaps more generally, was fairly minor. Maybe that's correct, but had that been the prospectus offered, would people have voted for Brexit? No.
    I remember that. Bit of a pipedream. Fwiw I can accept (without agreeing with) a pov that the economic impact is marginal. It's impossible to prove that stuff because so many things impact the economy.

    It's the 'sovereignty' argument that interests me more. I mean, technically, yes of course we have more now since less is pooled. But that for me is a reductive, superficial view of what sovereignty means.

    I'd rather pose a couple of practical questions. As a consequence of Brexit is Britain more influential in the world? As a consequence of Brexit do the people of Britain have more control over their lives? It's hard to answer yes to either.

    So what was it all for other than to gratify and empower a crew of reactionary right wing ideologues plus Boris Johnson? Answers on a postcard.
    Broadly I would say Brexit has two upsides and four downsides for the UK.

    Upsides:
    1. Flexibility. The EU takes forever to come to decision. The UK can be more nimble, eg Covid vaccines.
    2. Greater accountability due to decisions being made closer to those affected by them.

    Downsides:
    1. Stresses the integrity of the United Kingdom. I think Northern Ireland is probably gone long term. Scotland less certain but Brexit doesn't help. Both nations voted Remain for good reasons. If you are an English, Irish or Scottish nationalist you obviously don't care about the existence of the United Kingdom, but it is the country we live in.
    2. Loss of personal freedom and liberty, particularly to trade and go where you want This aim is incompatible with greater government control afforded by Brexit, eg on immigration. Some people prefer government control to liberty, which is why I haven't put that as an upside. Mileages may vary on this.
    3. Economic loss - the subject of this series of headers
    4. Loss of influence. This a lot more hard nosed than people think. It means getting more of what we want as a nation.

    I do think the European Union is a net force for the good, so I am glad it exists, regardless of UK membership. Talking here about how Brexit affects the UK specifically.
    The loss of influence argument works more in theory than in practice.

    In theory we're no longer at the top table in Europe; in practice, it's the E3 states of Britain, France and Germany setting out a position on Iran and Britain has obviously been very influential over the course of events in Ukraine (more so than post-2014).
    I would say the loss of influence through Brexit is real and of greater consequence than people think. Nevertheless it's a side effect of leaving rather than a reason to stay in the EU per se. Inhabitants of smaller countries don't spend a lot of time worrying their country has less influence than bigger countries.
    As a Leaver I agree with this. We have obviously lost diplomatic and geopolitical clout by quitting the EU. One needs to be honest

    On the upside we have gained important freedoms that we haven’t even tried to exploit (and Remainers seldom recognise this). It needs a proper right wing government with a clever leadership and some tungsten cullions to do that

    Clearly, sadly, we could be waiting a long time
    One serious point is that both parties have failed to invest significantly in soft power, such as overseas diplomats, British Council, BBC World Service, overseas aid / development and so on.

    Not everyone here will agree with all of those, but the general point is important.
    True, which is why it's odd that the reaction to Labour's Foreign Aid cuts was so muted.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 22,874
    rcs1000 said:

    FF43 said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    False precision is rife in this debate, as Fishing says, but one thing we can say for sure about Brexit is that people who voted for it on the grounds it would help the economy are still waiting for some decent evidence of it. The consensus is if anything the opposite. Ditto that it would make us stronger and more influential in the world. The opposite has transpired there too. Same on immigration. Far from taking the heat out of that it's become an even more contentious issue.

    Which leaves the sovereignty angle. That the point of Brexit was Brexit itself. It's a success by dint of having happened. For better or worse - with most metrics thus far indicating worse - we have taken back control. Forget all the rest, it is argued, this is the Brexit benefit. Pretty much the only one but nevertheless potentially big enough to justify almost a decade of division, paralysis and distraction.

    So what I'd like to ask Leave voters, given the importance of this, is do they feel it? Do they feel more sovereign now we aren't in the EU? Is the supposed Brexit dividend of being more in control something real and tangible to them? But wait, we don't have to ask them because the polls tell us the answer. Many of them now think it was a mistake and most of those who don't remain so hacked off they want to hand power to Nigel Farage and his bunch of chancers, fantasists and unsavouries. All in all, it's not a good report card.

    Dan Hannan's ludicrous article with his fantasy of life after Brexit springs to mind. That's what Brexiteers promised.

    Some in this thread suggest that the overall effect of Brexit on the economy, and perhaps more generally, was fairly minor. Maybe that's correct, but had that been the prospectus offered, would people have voted for Brexit? No.
    I remember that. Bit of a pipedream. Fwiw I can accept (without agreeing with) a pov that the economic impact is marginal. It's impossible to prove that stuff because so many things impact the economy.

    It's the 'sovereignty' argument that interests me more. I mean, technically, yes of course we have more now since less is pooled. But that for me is a reductive, superficial view of what sovereignty means.

    I'd rather pose a couple of practical questions. As a consequence of Brexit is Britain more influential in the world? As a consequence of Brexit do the people of Britain have more control over their lives? It's hard to answer yes to either.

    So what was it all for other than to gratify and empower a crew of reactionary right wing ideologues plus Boris Johnson? Answers on a postcard.
    Broadly I would say Brexit has two upsides and four downsides for the UK.

    Upsides:
    1. Flexibility. The EU takes forever to come to decision. The UK can be more nimble, eg Covid vaccines.
    2. Greater accountability due to decisions being made closer to those affected by them.

    Downsides:
    1. Stresses the integrity of the United Kingdom. I think Northern Ireland is probably gone long term. Scotland less certain but Brexit doesn't help. Both nations voted Remain for good reasons. If you are an English, Irish or Scottish nationalist you obviously don't care about the existence of the United Kingdom, but it is the country we live in.
    2. Loss of personal freedom and liberty, particularly to trade and go where you want This aim is incompatible with greater government control afforded by Brexit, eg on immigration. Some people prefer government control to liberty, which is why I haven't put that as an upside. Mileages may vary on this.
    3. Economic loss - the subject of this series of headers
    4. Loss of influence. This a lot more hard nosed than people think. It means getting more of what we want as a nation.

    I do think the European Union is a net force for the good, so I am glad it exists, regardless of UK membership. Talking here about how Brexit affects the UK specifically.
    Our independent approach on COVID vaccines was allowed under the EU rules.
    Actually no. The EU tried to prevent countries from starting their vaccination campaigns independently because they wanted a single unified EU operation. They were late in authorising vaccines and were almost 3 months later than the UK in ordering vaccines.

    One reason the UK vaccines rollout was far more successful is that we embedded the certifying authorities into the testing process rather than waiting until the process was completed before starting certification as the EU did.
    That's true, with the proviso that Hungary didn't join the EU program initially (despite being an EU member), and chose to buy Russian vaccines instead.

    I would also note (and this is not an EU related thing, but a criticism of our leaders) that we managed to waste our early vaccine lead by being utterly shit around restrictions and lockdown. That we managed to have a worse outcome -from both a freedom and an economic perspective- than many of our European peers despite getting vaccines earlier should be utterly humiliating for our leaders.
    Alternatively, thank flip we did have a vaccine lead (though not that huge in the end), otherwise UK outcomes would have been terrible.

    Whatever his successes, Boris utterly stuffed up the bit of the pandemic where 2020 was turning into 2021.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,490
    edited April 28

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    https://x.com/reuters/status/2049103389854929105

    BREAKING: The United Arab Emirates said it quit OPEC and OPEC+, dealing a heavy blow to the oil exporting groups and their de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, at a time when the Iran war has caused a historic energy shock and unsettled the global economy

    Watch for oil prices to start falling. UAE is about to start pumping like crazy to stop Iran and Russia from benefitting from the situation.
    And Trump has just said that Iranians have told him they are 'in a state of collapse' and want him to open Hormuz asap.

    Do we believe him or not?
    Is there a 'y' in the day?

    If the answer's yes, the answer's no.
    Is there only one day without a "y" in it? Christmas Eve. I mean, you'd never call Christmas Eve "Wednesday" or whatever. It's Xmas Eve.
    There are lots - New Ears Eve, Late Ma Bank Holibobs, International Women's Dave... the list goes on.
    All hallows eve,
    Bonfire Night.
    Burns night
    Tomorrow
    ...Never Dies
    For Trump, The World Is Not Enough.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 34,523
    rcs1000 said:

    FF43 said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    False precision is rife in this debate, as Fishing says, but one thing we can say for sure about Brexit is that people who voted for it on the grounds it would help the economy are still waiting for some decent evidence of it. The consensus is if anything the opposite. Ditto that it would make us stronger and more influential in the world. The opposite has transpired there too. Same on immigration. Far from taking the heat out of that it's become an even more contentious issue.

    Which leaves the sovereignty angle. That the point of Brexit was Brexit itself. It's a success by dint of having happened. For better or worse - with most metrics thus far indicating worse - we have taken back control. Forget all the rest, it is argued, this is the Brexit benefit. Pretty much the only one but nevertheless potentially big enough to justify almost a decade of division, paralysis and distraction.

    So what I'd like to ask Leave voters, given the importance of this, is do they feel it? Do they feel more sovereign now we aren't in the EU? Is the supposed Brexit dividend of being more in control something real and tangible to them? But wait, we don't have to ask them because the polls tell us the answer. Many of them now think it was a mistake and most of those who don't remain so hacked off they want to hand power to Nigel Farage and his bunch of chancers, fantasists and unsavouries. All in all, it's not a good report card.

    Dan Hannan's ludicrous article with his fantasy of life after Brexit springs to mind. That's what Brexiteers promised.

    Some in this thread suggest that the overall effect of Brexit on the economy, and perhaps more generally, was fairly minor. Maybe that's correct, but had that been the prospectus offered, would people have voted for Brexit? No.
    I remember that. Bit of a pipedream. Fwiw I can accept (without agreeing with) a pov that the economic impact is marginal. It's impossible to prove that stuff because so many things impact the economy.

    It's the 'sovereignty' argument that interests me more. I mean, technically, yes of course we have more now since less is pooled. But that for me is a reductive, superficial view of what sovereignty means.

    I'd rather pose a couple of practical questions. As a consequence of Brexit is Britain more influential in the world? As a consequence of Brexit do the people of Britain have more control over their lives? It's hard to answer yes to either.

    So what was it all for other than to gratify and empower a crew of reactionary right wing ideologues plus Boris Johnson? Answers on a postcard.
    Broadly I would say Brexit has two upsides and four downsides for the UK.

    Upsides:
    1. Flexibility. The EU takes forever to come to decision. The UK can be more nimble, eg Covid vaccines.
    2. Greater accountability due to decisions being made closer to those affected by them.

    Downsides:
    1. Stresses the integrity of the United Kingdom. I think Northern Ireland is probably gone long term. Scotland less certain but Brexit doesn't help. Both nations voted Remain for good reasons. If you are an English, Irish or Scottish nationalist you obviously don't care about the existence of the United Kingdom, but it is the country we live in.
    2. Loss of personal freedom and liberty, particularly to trade and go where you want This aim is incompatible with greater government control afforded by Brexit, eg on immigration. Some people prefer government control to liberty, which is why I haven't put that as an upside. Mileages may vary on this.
    3. Economic loss - the subject of this series of headers
    4. Loss of influence. This a lot more hard nosed than people think. It means getting more of what we want as a nation.

    I do think the European Union is a net force for the good, so I am glad it exists, regardless of UK membership. Talking here about how Brexit affects the UK specifically.
    Our independent approach on COVID vaccines was allowed under the EU rules.
    Actually no. The EU tried to prevent countries from starting their vaccination campaigns independently because they wanted a single unified EU operation. They were late in authorising vaccines and were almost 3 months later than the UK in ordering vaccines.

    One reason the UK vaccines rollout was far more successful is that we embedded the certifying authorities into the testing process rather than waiting until the process was completed before starting certification as the EU did.
    That's true, with the proviso that Hungary didn't join the EU program initially (despite being an EU member), and chose to buy Russian vaccines instead.

    I would also note (and this is not an EU related thing, but a criticism of our leaders) that we managed to waste our early vaccine lead by being utterly shit around restrictions and lockdown. That we managed to have a worse outcome -from both a freedom and an economic perspective- than many of our European peers despite getting vaccines earlier should be utterly humiliating for our leaders.
    Very true. We are always let down by our political leaders whether they are based in London or Brussels
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,671
    Is this a plan to get Democrats to renounce citizenship ?

    State Dept. is finalizing a plan to put Trump's picture On U.S. passports
    https://x.com/samstein/status/2049176717248348412
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 22,874

    On the vote

    15 labour mps voted for

    53 labour abstentions though some would be paired

    So "Moderate rebellion, not many dead."

    And the whip was one of the better bits of man-management that No 10 has managed recently; it gives MPs plausible cover for their votes.

    So the waggon wobbles on. Can we get back to important stuff, like what happens when the fuel supplies run out?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,671
    James Comey has been indicted by the Trump Justice Department — again.

    This time, Comey has been indicted on charges alleging he made threats against Trump in that May 2025 social post of a picture of shells on the beach that spelled out "8647."

    https://x.com/kylegriffin1/status/2049190337411780845
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 64,491
    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    False precision is rife in this debate, as Fishing says, but one thing we can say for sure about Brexit is that people who voted for it on the grounds it would help the economy are still waiting for some decent evidence of it. The consensus is if anything the opposite. Ditto that it would make us stronger and more influential in the world. The opposite has transpired there too. Same on immigration. Far from taking the heat out of that it's become an even more contentious issue.

    Which leaves the sovereignty angle. That the point of Brexit was Brexit itself. It's a success by dint of having happened. For better or worse - with most metrics thus far indicating worse - we have taken back control. Forget all the rest, it is argued, this is the Brexit benefit. Pretty much the only one but nevertheless potentially big enough to justify almost a decade of division, paralysis and distraction.

    So what I'd like to ask Leave voters, given the importance of this, is do they feel it? Do they feel more sovereign now we aren't in the EU? Is the supposed Brexit dividend of being more in control something real and tangible to them? But wait, we don't have to ask them because the polls tell us the answer. Many of them now think it was a mistake and most of those who don't remain so hacked off they want to hand power to Nigel Farage and his bunch of chancers, fantasists and unsavouries. All in all, it's not a good report card.

    Dan Hannan's ludicrous article with his fantasy of life after Brexit springs to mind. That's what Brexiteers promised.

    Some in this thread suggest that the overall effect of Brexit on the economy, and perhaps more generally, was fairly minor. Maybe that's correct, but had that been the prospectus offered, would people have voted for Brexit? No.
    I remember that. Bit of a pipedream. Fwiw I can accept (without agreeing with) a pov that the economic impact is marginal. It's impossible to prove that stuff because so many things impact the economy.

    It's the 'sovereignty' argument that interests me more. I mean, technically, yes of course we have more now since less is pooled. But that for me is a reductive, superficial view of what sovereignty means.

    I'd rather pose a couple of practical questions. As a consequence of Brexit is Britain more influential in the world? As a consequence of Brexit do the people of Britain have more control over their lives? It's hard to answer yes to either.

    So what was it all for other than to gratify and empower a crew of reactionary right wing ideologues plus Boris Johnson? Answers on a postcard.
    Broadly I would say Brexit has two upsides and four downsides for the UK.

    Upsides:
    1. Flexibility. The EU takes forever to come to decision. The UK can be more nimble, eg Covid vaccines.
    2. Greater accountability due to decisions being made closer to those affected by them.

    Downsides:
    1. Stresses the integrity of the United Kingdom. I think Northern Ireland is probably gone long term. Scotland less certain but Brexit doesn't help. Both nations voted Remain for good reasons. If you are an English, Irish or Scottish nationalist you obviously don't care about the existence of the United Kingdom, but it is the country we live in.
    2. Loss of personal freedom and liberty, particularly to trade and go where you want This aim is incompatible with greater government control afforded by Brexit, eg on immigration. Some people prefer government control to liberty, which is why I haven't put that as an upside. Mileages may vary on this.
    3. Economic loss - the subject of this series of headers
    4. Loss of influence. This a lot more hard nosed than people think. It means getting more of what we want as a nation.

    I do think the European Union is a net force for the good, so I am glad it exists, regardless of UK membership. Talking here about how Brexit affects the UK specifically.
    The loss of influence argument works more in theory than in practice.

    In theory we're no longer at the top table in Europe; in practice, it's the E3 states of Britain, France and Germany setting out a position on Iran and Britain has obviously been very influential over the course of events in Ukraine (more so than post-2014).
    I would say the loss of influence through Brexit is real and of greater consequence than people think. Nevertheless it's a side effect of leaving rather than a reason to stay in the EU per se. Inhabitants of smaller countries don't spend a lot of time worrying their country has less influence than bigger countries.
    As a Leaver I agree with this. We have obviously lost diplomatic and geopolitical clout by quitting the EU. One needs to be honest

    On the upside we have gained important freedoms that we haven’t even tried to exploit (and Remainers seldom recognise this). It needs a proper right wing government with a clever leadership and some tungsten cullions to do that

    Clearly, sadly, we could be waiting a long time
    We're fucked.
  • https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1l25qd43nro

    I'm sure he'll be lambasted for this from all quarters..but we all know it's essentially the truth..😏
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 50,721
    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    False precision is rife in this debate, as Fishing says, but one thing we can say for sure about Brexit is that people who voted for it on the grounds it would help the economy are still waiting for some decent evidence of it. The consensus is if anything the opposite. Ditto that it would make us stronger and more influential in the world. The opposite has transpired there too. Same on immigration. Far from taking the heat out of that it's become an even more contentious issue.

    Which leaves the sovereignty angle. That the point of Brexit was Brexit itself. It's a success by dint of having happened. For better or worse - with most metrics thus far indicating worse - we have taken back control. Forget all the rest, it is argued, this is the Brexit benefit. Pretty much the only one but nevertheless potentially big enough to justify almost a decade of division, paralysis and distraction.

    So what I'd like to ask Leave voters, given the importance of this, is do they feel it? Do they feel more sovereign now we aren't in the EU? Is the supposed Brexit dividend of being more in control something real and tangible to them? But wait, we don't have to ask them because the polls tell us the answer. Many of them now think it was a mistake and most of those who don't remain so hacked off they want to hand power to Nigel Farage and his bunch of chancers, fantasists and unsavouries. All in all, it's not a good report card.

    Dan Hannan's ludicrous article with his fantasy of life after Brexit springs to mind. That's what Brexiteers promised.

    Some in this thread suggest that the overall effect of Brexit on the economy, and perhaps more generally, was fairly minor. Maybe that's correct, but had that been the prospectus offered, would people have voted for Brexit? No.
    I remember that. Bit of a pipedream. Fwiw I can accept (without agreeing with) a pov that the economic impact is marginal. It's impossible to prove that stuff because so many things impact the economy.

    It's the 'sovereignty' argument that interests me more. I mean, technically, yes of course we have more now since less is pooled. But that for me is a reductive, superficial view of what sovereignty means.

    I'd rather pose a couple of practical questions. As a consequence of Brexit is Britain more influential in the world? As a consequence of Brexit do the people of Britain have more control over their lives? It's hard to answer yes to either.

    So what was it all for other than to gratify and empower a crew of reactionary right wing ideologues plus Boris Johnson? Answers on a postcard.
    Broadly I would say Brexit has two upsides and four downsides for the UK.

    Upsides:
    1. Flexibility. The EU takes forever to come to decision. The UK can be more nimble, eg Covid vaccines.
    2. Greater accountability due to decisions being made closer to those affected by them.

    Downsides:
    1. Stresses the integrity of the United Kingdom. I think Northern Ireland is probably gone long term. Scotland less certain but Brexit doesn't help. Both nations voted Remain for good reasons. If you are an English, Irish or Scottish nationalist you obviously don't care about the existence of the United Kingdom, but it is the country we live in.
    2. Loss of personal freedom and liberty, particularly to trade and go where you want This aim is incompatible with greater government control afforded by Brexit, eg on immigration. Some people prefer government control to liberty, which is why I haven't put that as an upside. Mileages may vary on this.
    3. Economic loss - the subject of this series of headers
    4. Loss of influence. This a lot more hard nosed than people think. It means getting more of what we want as a nation.

    I do think the European Union is a net force for the good, so I am glad it exists, regardless of UK membership. Talking here about how Brexit affects the UK specifically.
    The loss of influence argument works more in theory than in practice.

    In theory we're no longer at the top table in Europe; in practice, it's the E3 states of Britain, France and Germany setting out a position on Iran and Britain has obviously been very influential over the course of events in Ukraine (more so than post-2014).
    I would say the loss of influence through Brexit is real and of greater consequence than people think. Nevertheless it's a side effect of leaving rather than a reason to stay in the EU per se. Inhabitants of smaller countries don't spend a lot of time worrying their country has less influence than bigger countries.
    As a Leaver I agree with this. We have obviously lost diplomatic and geopolitical clout by quitting the EU. One needs to be honest

    On the upside we have gained important freedoms that we haven’t even tried to exploit (and Remainers seldom recognise this). It needs a proper right wing government with a clever leadership and some tungsten cullions to do that

    Clearly, sadly, we could be waiting a long time
    So Brexit only makes sense if accompanied by a very right wing government. That does explain a few things.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 7,936
    Leon said:

    Dearest @BlancheLivermore - love the travel anecdotage

    Can’t we have more regular updates? They enliven the forum and I love pics of oysters

    I shall endeavour to post more often. It’s much easier to update every day than having to catch up on nine days in one go..

    I’m having oysters again. They’re much smaller than yesterday’s, but I think rather tastier
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,490
    I’m watching Murphy v Zhao. Two former world champions, the only two living people to have won the title as qualifiers.

    I’m reminded of Hendry, after a less than stellar performance against Steve Davis, commenting ‘you wouldn’t have believed we had 13 club championships between us.’

    Stellar it ain’t. Entertaining, yes.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 14,287
    “Six houses, two boats” - things not to bring up in an election debate.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,879
    https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/2049193500194087370

    The Chancellor of Germany, Friedrich Merz, thinks it's OK for Iran to have a Nuclear Weapon. He doesn't know what he's talking about! If Iran had a Nuclear Weapon, the whole World would be held hostage. I am doing something with Iran, right now, that other Nations, or Presidents, should have done long ago. No wonder Germany is doing so poorly, both Economically, and otherwise! President DONALD J. TRUMP
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 34,523
    Nigelb said:

    James Comey has been indicted by the Trump Justice Department — again.

    This time, Comey has been indicted on charges alleging he made threats against Trump in that May 2025 social post of a picture of shells on the beach that spelled out "8647."

    https://x.com/kylegriffin1/status/2049190337411780845

    Can anyone explain the significance of that please?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 64,491

    Nigelb said:

    James Comey has been indicted by the Trump Justice Department — again.

    This time, Comey has been indicted on charges alleging he made threats against Trump in that May 2025 social post of a picture of shells on the beach that spelled out "8647."

    https://x.com/kylegriffin1/status/2049190337411780845

    Can anyone explain the significance of that please?
    47th President of the US being 86ed?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,380
    Nigelb said:

    Is this a plan to get Democrats to renounce citizenship ?

    State Dept. is finalizing a plan to put Trump's picture On U.S. passports
    https://x.com/samstein/status/2049176717248348412

    How has American fallen like this? No Kings and so on. Very sad.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,809

    Nigelb said:

    James Comey has been indicted by the Trump Justice Department — again.

    This time, Comey has been indicted on charges alleging he made threats against Trump in that May 2025 social post of a picture of shells on the beach that spelled out "8647."

    https://x.com/kylegriffin1/status/2049190337411780845

    Can anyone explain the significance of that please?
    86ing someone is killing them I believe. 47 is Trump's second presidential term.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 6,305

    Nigelb said:

    James Comey has been indicted by the Trump Justice Department — again.

    This time, Comey has been indicted on charges alleging he made threats against Trump in that May 2025 social post of a picture of shells on the beach that spelled out "8647."

    https://x.com/kylegriffin1/status/2049190337411780845

    Can anyone explain the significance of that please?
    What does ‘8647’ really mean? Not what Trump’s supporters are saying https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/may/16/8647-meaning-james-comey-instagram-trump?CMP=share_btn_url
This discussion has been closed.